dachopper

Sydney to Hobart 2019

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17 hours ago, duncan (the other one) said:

well,

 

given they'd be out of a job if he didn't start the company, I don't see where their gripe would be

You know what a leader with no followers is? 

Just a guy out for a walk. 

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On 12/12/2019 at 11:17 AM, duncan (the other one) said:

well,

 

given they'd be out of a job if he didn't start the company, I don't see where their gripe would be

Yes true but they still gripe..... unfortunate fact

9 hours ago, jackolantern said:

You know what a leader with no followers is? 

Just a guy out for a walk. 

Good one

boss yacht.jpg

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Few employees know how much goes into & is on the line, to run your own business. But nobody said finding & managing staff was easy! 

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28 minutes ago, SCANAS said:

Few employees know how much goes into & is on the line, to run your own business. But nobody said finding & managing staff was easy! 

as an owner of a medium size american business, i always equate it to, " you don't take work home with you" . most have no clue of what the actual stresses are.

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5 hours ago, bigrpowr said:

as an owner of a medium size american business, i always equate it to, " you don't take work home with you" . most have no clue of what the actual stresses are.

Yacht racing was always for me a massive reliever of stress. Especially if your boat was proving to be fast and winning. Wednesday night racing was always fun and something to look forward to. Good luck to everyone with their own business. Success means more boats usually. Think the Hobart this year may bring a surprise or two?

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16 hours ago, terrafirma said:

Yacht racing was always for me a massive reliever of stress. Especially if your boat was proving to be fast and winning. Wednesday night racing was always fun and something to look forward to. Good luck to everyone with their own business. Success means more boats usually. Think the Hobart this year may bring a surprise or two?

same way my father was, his business was much bigger than mine. wednesday nights were a huge one on his schedule for that exact reason, as well as coastal/offshore races. i cant find a minute to even try to get a campaign going let alone a boat with a 4 and 6 year old right now. soon though.

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On 12/9/2019 at 3:46 PM, terrafirma said:

Wonder what the repair bill was? Anyone care to guess?

600 i heard

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1 hour ago, charisma94 said:

Wouldn't it be an insurance claim?

no idea. possibly

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Just to liven things up, and because as usual nowadays I am going fishing down the south coast in early January here is my weather take 2 weeks out.

So the Indian Ocean dipole has low sea water temperatures so low rainfall and higher temperatures over New South Wales.

So hot air everywhere.

At the same time the Southern Annular mode is very high up so boundary of sub Antarctic westerlies is up into the strait.

So lots of hot air and cold air meeting in the southern Tasman sea.

Never good

Read that as lots of intense lows forming and filling very quickly off the far south of NSW.

So it is question of which part of the fleet collides worst with one of these small but intense lows.

While on the coast of Tasmania everyone can expect fresh westerlies with the usual reversal inshore because of the elevation and the westerly stream

As for me, looks like lots of fresh weatherly stream so so the south coast will suck and  east coast might be better.

Of course all of this might be complete crap.

 

 

 

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Spent a very relaxing W/E up in Siderneee and all day yesterday on the harbour (with friends on a beautiful stink boat)....as we swam, munched on prawns and partook of the occasional cool one, it was interesting to note that the only program boats out training were Ichi, Zen and Gweilo.....the rest of the so-called contenders were tied to their docks (or on the hard)

Also had a squiz at the Sail Sydney stuff....had to conclude that it's a diminished event....anyway, the Searay performed to Polars and the Athol & Watto bay crowd were as anticipated....so, a great day...and I did momentarily reflect on the fact that ...as the Ichi crew, looking buggered, spent an hour dragging sails off the boat, as we handed our ride over to the marina staff to "sort it out"....how much I'm not missing the Hobart prep this year!

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17 hours ago, lydia said:

Just to liven things up, and because as usual nowadays I am going fishing down the south coast in early January here is my weather take 2 weeks out.

So the Indian Ocean dipole has low sea water temperatures so low rainfall and higher temperatures over New South Wales.

So hot air everywhere.

At the same time the Southern Annular mode is very high up so boundary of sub Antarctic westerlies is up into the strait.

So lots of hot air and cold air meeting in the southern Tasman sea.

Never good

Read that as lots of intense lows forming and filling very quickly off the far south of NSW.

So it is question of which part of the fleet collides worst with one of these small but intense lows.

While on the coast of Tasmania everyone can expect fresh westerlies with the usual reversal inshore because of the elevation and the westerly stream

As for me, looks like lots of fresh weatherly stream so so the south coast will suck and  east coast might be better.

Of course all of this might be complete crap.

 

 

 

Access model for 12Z on 25th says I am right at this stage

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2 hours ago, lydia said:

Access model for 12Z on 25th says I am right at this stage

So...Lydia..we should pack the short boards and the long boards for our Tazzy surf safari in the X-50? Heading down round Flinders Is. and parts thereabouts from Jan 6 for 10 days..... Rods are prepped and menus under consideration...abalone & cray will feature...

 

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Quick look at the water temp says fishing wide of St Helens would be a good thing but for surfing on the south coast you will want the 4mm steamer.

But definitely pack the boards

Trick is to surf the north westerly and as soon as it goes south of west pack it up.

opening of cray season was delayed so I would not bother on the north east coast but go straight round south east cape for that.

Can't comment on the abs.

You can get some very funky high speed trolling hydro plane set ups for pelagics now days so look at those for the trip down the east coast

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2 hours ago, Couta said:

So...Lydia..we should pack the short boards and the long boards for our Tazzy surf safari in the X-50? Heading down round Flinders Is. and parts thereabouts from Jan 6 for 10 days..... Rods are prepped and menus under consideration...abalone & cray will feature...

 

Taking the X-50 down there as a surf safari  and fishing trip mother-ship is like taking  a Ferrari to the old Calder Drags.

LR will be inconsolable if you get fish guts on that deck

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9 hours ago, TheUltimateSockPuppet said:

Sounds like a legal disclaimer :)

And he so advises...

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16 minutes ago, SPORTSCAR said:

Taking the X-50 down there as a surf safari  and fishing trip mother-ship is like taking  a Ferrari to the old Calder Drags.

calder_05_04_021b.jpg

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Something to ponder for the experts and otherwise.

The Hobart can throw up all sorts of weather and sea conditions and rapidly changing tactical scenarios making it possibly the hardest of all offshore races to win.

Ignoring the 5 x 100ft attention whore Super-Maxipads and leaving aside for one moment the all conquering TP-52s, what other boats in the 166 boat fleet do you reckon are capable of taking the win in this 75th Hobart?

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So WOXI removed their daggers and added a rudder?

We have replaced 2 large daggerboards with a small, and considerably lighter, rudder just forward of the mast,” he explained. “The few trials we have done using this new appendage indicate that it will be an advantage when sailing upwind.”
 

https://www.wildoatsxi.com.au/news/repaired-supermaxi-yacht-wild-oats-xi-sets-sail-on-overnight-qualifier-for-the-rolex-sydney-hobart-yacht-race/

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31 minutes ago, 33jesus said:

So WOXI removed their daggers and added a rudder?

Could be.  If you watch the SailorGirl video of WOXI being splashed, there's just a single centerline slot in front of the keel strut....

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2 hours ago, Last Post said:

Something to ponder for the experts and otherwise.

The Hobart can throw up all sorts of weather and sea conditions and rapidly changing tactical scenarios making it possibly the hardest of all offshore races to win.

Ignoring the 5 x 100ft attention whore Super-Maxipads and leaving aside for one moment the all conquering TP-52s, what other boats in the 166 boat fleet do you reckon are capable of taking the win in this 75th Hobart?

The winner will be the lowest rating boat to get ahead of the low that is able to stay 80 miles east of eden without breaking

check out the sea height anomaly and current charts

 

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2 hours ago, 33jesus said:

So WOXI removed their daggers and added a rudder?

We have replaced 2 large daggerboards with a small, and considerably lighter, rudder just forward of the mast,” he explained. “The few trials we have done using this new appendage indicate that it will be an advantage when sailing upwind.”
 

https://www.wildoatsxi.com.au/news/repaired-supermaxi-yacht-wild-oats-xi-sets-sail-on-overnight-qualifier-for-the-rolex-sydney-hobart-yacht-race/

so after 14 years she's back to being a CBTF.  I would love to have been a fly on the wall at Reichel/Pugh when they got that phone call.

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“We have replaced 2 large daggerboards with a small, and considerably lighter, rudder just forward of the mast,” he explained. “The few trials we have done using this new appendage indicate that it will be an advantage when sailing upwind.”

Quote of the decade?

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Interesting nevertheless because it indicates all of their mods for improved downhill speed have worked and that was with dagger boards so now they're chasing some speed upwind or more so height which means they are back in line with BJ? If I remember right BJ have the forward canard?

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1 hour ago, terrafirma said:

Interesting nevertheless because it indicates all of their mods for improved downhill speed have worked and that was with dagger boards so now they're chasing some speed upwind or more so height which means they are back in line with BJ? If I remember right BJ have the forward canard?

Yes, and BJ100 has the same ability to lift the canard. When both boats were CBTF they did not have the ability to lift the boards. 

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10 hours ago, Captain Jack Sparrow said:

Yes, and BJ100 has the same ability to lift the canard. When both boats were CBTF they did not have the ability to lift the boards. 

The daggerboards were designed to aid upwind performance without the drag penalty of CBTF - in CBTF config these boats were wicked upwind but at the speeds they go downwind the drag penalty of the front foil was large.  The lifting forward rudder is an attempt to have cake and eat it too - and lose the weight penalty of the twin daggerboards.  At one point (known as the Swiss Army Knife period by historians) WOXI had a DSS, two daggerboards and an additional small centreline daggerboard way up front to correct upwind performance, so I'm guessing the large asymmetric daggerboards were installed too far aft back in the day, or at a suboptimal toe-in angle.

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23 hours ago, Couta said:

So...Lydia..we should pack the short boards and the long boards for our Tazzy surf safari in the X-50? Heading down round Flinders Is. and parts thereabouts from Jan 6 for 10 days..... Rods are prepped and menus under consideration...abalone & cray will feature...

 

Fuck Hobart.... I'm coming with you guys.... surfing, fishing, crays, booze and woman..... oh and an X-50 as a pad.... luxury .... my quiver is at the ready so my invite with itinerary can be sent through messages here

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Any last minute starting spots going? 
 

Or something fast coming back?

PM Me

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Yes I was just discussing weather with the owner & he said I might end up with his spot. 

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1 hour ago, TUBBY said:

With the way the weather is starting to look,  possibly a few, maybe even mine!

Weather forecast..?

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Based on the Predict Wind PWE model

First night looks fun with 25knt southerly.

Staying south for the first 24hr then a quiet 12hr as it switches to the south.

Then a good northerly.

 

Maybe a 40 footers race?

 

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1 hour ago, The Dark Knight said:

Based on the Predict Wind PWE model

First night looks fun with 25knt southerly.

Staying south for the first 24hr then a quiet 12hr as it switches to the south.

Then a good northerly.

 

Maybe a 40 footers race?

 

Thanks for the early forecast but too early to call this far out from the start. Still gives some indications of the conditions and will keep the high budget programs busy with their forecast experts with extra pocket money for Xmas!

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5 minutes ago, Chucky said:

Thanks for the early forecast but too early to call this far out from the start. Still gives some indications of the conditions and will keep the high budget programs busy with their forecast experts with extra pocket money for Xmas!

Too early, for this place?

This far out is certainly useless for the people racing, but it's never too early on SA ;)

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1 hour ago, Chucky said:

Thanks for the early forecast but too early to call this far out from the start. Still gives some indications of the conditions and will keep the high budget programs busy with their forecast experts with extra pocket money for Xmas!

Latest PWECMWF Grib has NE for 2 days before a southerly, amazing the change in modelling in 12 hours, PW GFS has a southerly at the start

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Since it is too early to know what the conditions will be.

What category of boats would you like to see the weather to suit?

The past few races favoured:....

2018 big non-maxi boats

2017 45 to TP52 

2016 50 +

2015 Slow race, smaller boats

2014 Slow race, smaller boats

 

I'd like to see southerly for the first day and then swinging to the north for the slow boats.... 

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4 hours ago, Bill E Goat said:

Latest PWECMWF Grib has NE for 2 days before a southerly, amazing the change in modelling in 12 hours, PW GFS has a southerly at the start

I did not look at the PWG earlier so I don't know what changed, but I am surprised to see the PWE did a 180 wind change.

 

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Each year this thread unfolds like a Roman play.

 

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22 hours ago, SCANAS said:

Any last minute starting spots going? 
 

Or something fast coming back?

PM Me

Turn up 28/12 and chat to boat captains of all.... you will get a fast ride

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How much of a crew turnover do the maxi's have for the delivery home? Dump all the pro's?

My uncles childhood friend used to do all of the Scandia deliveries for Warro, never a race.

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34 minutes ago, The Dark Knight said:

How much of a crew turnover do the maxi's have for the delivery home? Dump all the pro's?

My uncles childhood friend used to do all of the Scandia deliveries for Warro, never a race.

So his job was to lose the current 'uncompetitive' rig over the side ? :P

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3 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

How much of a crew turnover do the maxi's have for the delivery home? Dump all the pro's?

My uncles childhood friend used to do all of the Scandia deliveries for Warro, never a race.

Story doing the rounds a couple/few years ago  that Oats made it back to Sydney in delivery mode faster than she got to Hobart.

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33 minutes ago, SPORTSCAR said:

Story doing the rounds a couple/few years ago  that Oats made it back to Sydney in delivery mode faster than she got to Hobart.

I remember the story being they came back faster than the race record & they beat the passage time which belonged to Raw Nerve SO50 at the time, then both records broken by Langmen on the ORMA? 

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20 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

I did not look at the PWG earlier so I don't know what changed, but I am surprised to see the PWE did a 180 wind change.

 

Predict Wind rolled out their major update and tweaked the forecasts claiming more accuracy. I've always found BOM to be more accurate but we need to be a week out for that. We'll know soon enough. 

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1 hour ago, SCANAS said:

I remember the story being they came back faster than the race record & they beat the passage time which belonged to Raw Nerve SO50 at the time, then both records broken by Langmen on the ORMA? 

All the egos and fat wallets got off at Hobart ! 

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3 hours ago, SPORTSCAR said:

Story doing the rounds a couple/few years ago  that Oats made it back to Sydney in delivery mode faster than she got to Hobart.

Not uncommon after 1981 Anaconda 2 beat the existing race record then of 2days 14 hours by hours and got close to 2 days

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Always good to go straight out into the Southerly,  gets rid of those excess chrissie lunches early!

Been quite a while since we started in a solid Southerly.

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On 12/15/2019 at 3:08 PM, lydia said:

Just to liven things up, and because as usual nowadays I am going fishing down the south coast in early January here is my weather take 2 weeks out.

So the Indian Ocean dipole has low sea water temperatures so low rainfall and higher temperatures over New South Wales.

So hot air everywhere.

At the same time the Southern Annular mode is very high up so boundary of sub Antarctic westerlies is up into the strait.

So lots of hot air and cold air meeting in the southern Tasman sea.

Never good

Read that as lots of intense lows forming and filling very quickly off the far south of NSW.

So it is question of which part of the fleet collides worst with one of these small but intense lows.

While on the coast of Tasmania everyone can expect fresh westerlies with the usual reversal inshore because of the elevation and the westerly stream

As for me, looks like lots of fresh weatherly stream so so the south coast will suck and  east coast might be better.

Of course all of this might be complete crap.

 

 

 

Still going with this from last weekend just need the low to move south east now

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Bit early to play routing games. But, what the hell.  The whole Pac region is in transition from El Nino to La Nina.  Hence dry, hot and on fire for you lot.  Looks to be a lot of thermal mixing potential which makes the models quite disparate.   Predict Wind euro algorithm seems pretty keen on low pressure to the east for the first 24 hours or so. But, given that PW only gets a global snapshot now that Euro is restricted, one has to wonder how good that data is. Oh, since I'm 19 hours behind you, I start after dinner on Xmas day! Can't remember if that's 1600 or 1700 local.

V70:

PWOffV70.png

Super maxi:PWOffWild.png

PWE 27th 1100 Oz.

Screen Shot 2019-12-18 at 11.36.01 AM.png

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19 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

How much of a crew turnover do the maxi's have for the delivery home? Dump all the pro's?

My uncles childhood friend used to do all of the Scandia deliveries for Warro, never a race.

The bigger programs usually keep most crew as it's part of their paid contract... A quick drink and they are off..

Key people like Stan Honey and the owners rarely do deliveries so they always take few punters.....

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The Reichel Pugh article on the mods done to both Oats and BJ suggest they will give a better account of themselves. Oats has shed 1200KG and will go better in the light now and BJ will go better in the heavy off the wind conditions. Interesting Hobart with the changes made to these babies and Comanche and the others in quiet mode. Bring it on..

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OK, serious Sydney-Hobart question time (for an acquaintance).

Will a 4 kg LPG gas bottle be sufficient for the race on a 40' with 10 crew?  Or should they take a spare bottle?

My experience is too far out of date, and all the relevant peeps only have experience with the Coleman camping type stoves.

Any info gratefully received,

TIA

R

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8 minutes ago, Recidivist said:

OK, serious Sydney-Hobart question time (for an acquaintance).

Will a 4 kg LPG gas bottle be sufficient for the race on a 40' with 10 crew?  Or should they take a spare bottle?

My experience is too far out of date, and all the relevant peeps only have experience with the Coleman camping type stoves.

Any info gratefully received,

TIA

R

should be more than plenty... unless they're cooking roasts in the oven.

that's over 1kg of gas per day!

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3 hours ago, DtM said:

Agree. More than enough.

Thanks guys - I'll pass it on.  My advice was that, if it was close, a warm drink could boost morale on a cold night and lead to more performance gains than would be lost by carrying a spare bottle!

But if it's not close - why would they bother to accelerate an extra gas bottle in each puff?

Cheers

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47 minutes ago, The Dark Knight said:

First BOM forecast. Very different to PW

 

 

Screen Shot 2019-12-19 at 21.19.18.png

actually pretty similar to the PWE.

 

The PWG differs because it parks an East Coast Low right off Sydney.

 

The real fun part about all models is they show an enormous ridge in the bight. GFS, PWE and PWG have it right over Tassie, through to the South Island (NZ). Meteye shows something similar - SE/E wind all through Vic, SA and WA.

 

https://www.windy.com/?gfs,2019-12-26-06,-39.453,147.942,5

https://www.windy.com/?2019-12-26-06,-39.453,147.942,5

 

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Chaps, very divided.  Until the ridgereferred to above resolves itself, nothing but confusion in the mind of the Bhudda.

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And to quote Thomas a Kempis "Homo proponit, sed Deus disponit".  We will see what we will see over the next few days, clarity on this one is some way off .... just as we like it.

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22 minutes ago, DuncanR said:

And to quote Thomas a Kempis "Homo proponit, sed Deus disponit".  We will see what we will see over the next few days, clarity on this one is some way off .... just as we like it.

I can smell a weather event or is it just my imagination???? :D

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History has shown a tough Southerly in a 7 year cycle,  this is the 7th year.  

Think 77,  84, 91, 98 & the old salts tell me it goes back further,  but I wasn't into sailing in 70.

Like all good rules there are exceptions, and with the way the last few have gone maybe all of the old rules are now out of the window.

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I assume S2H will be geoblocked like in years past. The S2H website stated only being broadcasted in Australia. Anyone out there have other info for US viewers? 

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I would think it would be shown here on the site by a link somehow.  Seems to have been the last several years.

That ridge is going to cause a slow section in the middle for the big boats.  Might pay off for the smaller boats on handicap though.

622E68BA-F9E7-438F-827B-8D7663C51311.png

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Surface Pressure & Rainfall over Australia at Thu Dec 26 11:00:00 2019 AEDT

Early days yet, but no records likely to fall. A bit of uphill stuff.

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Fucking BOM, PredictWind, Windy, GFS, PWE, PWG blah blah fuckin blah. 

Yanet Garcia is the weather pro....just pretend she is turning right. 

 

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8 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Fucking BOM, PredictWind, Windy, GFS, PWE, PWG blah blah fuckin blah. 

Yanet Garcia is the weather pro....just pretend she is turning right. 

 

Whose your pic for Line Honours Jack I need to place a bet with Sportsbet or should I wait bit for a more accurate weather forecast from Yanet? :D

 

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9 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Fucking BOM, PredictWind, Windy, GFS, PWE, PWG blah blah fuckin blah. 

Yanet Garcia is the weather pro....just pretend she is turning right. 

 

quoted for posterity. thanks jack, hope all is well my friend.

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20 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

So come on who wants to give me their line honors forecast? 

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

1. A boat that is featured in the Boxing Day Channel 7 coverage

2. A boat that is featured in the Boxing Day Channel 7 coverage

3. A boat that is featured in the Boxing Day Channel 7 coverage

4. A boat that is featured in the Boxing Day Channel 7 coverage

5 - 22890 One of the real boats in the fleet

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37 minutes ago, TheUltimateSockPuppet said:

1. A boat that is featured in the Boxing Day Channel 7 coverage

2. A boat that is featured in the Boxing Day Channel 7 coverage

3. A boat that is featured in the Boxing Day Channel 7 coverage

4. A boat that is featured in the Boxing Day Channel 7 coverage

5 - 22890 One of the real boats in the fleet

So you are predicting all 4 maxi's make it to Hobart.... Big call..

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1 hour ago, The Dark Knight said:

So you are predicting all 4 maxi's make it to Hobart.... Big call..

Aren't there five entered? So he's assuming that one will break.

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4 hours ago, SteveJH said:

Aren't there five entered? So he's assuming that one will break.

That was a fucking waste of a question try again who will win LH 1-2-3...?

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1 hour ago, terrafirma said:

That was a fucking waste of a question try again who will win LH 1-2-3...?

Ok, I’ll bite 

1 BJ

2 Comanche 

3 Scallywag 

(Woxi retires with damage) 

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One day, 9 hours, 15 minutes and 24 seconds. Unlikely to be beaten this year.  However, what is your prediction for the line honours win time this year?