dachopper

Sydney to Hobart 2019

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Just now, terrafirma said:

This looks like an Oats race now. BUT....If Karma is true then something will happen to them..? It looks impossible for Comanche now they are that slow in these conditions you have to wonder what the design brief was? Black Jack deserve a win but for some reason they always fail to deliver? There is no way Scallywag can win they are too consistently "BAD" for it to happen. But if someone opens Pandora's box none of this could be true for this race. Who's going to pick it.....????? :D

Unless the RP boats make 30 miles of hay the Indian will thunder home 

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4 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

Faster Forward - Retired - Steering problems

Thanks bad luck for Matt and his crew. They also pulled out shortly after starting the Melb to Stanley race

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12 minutes ago, Liquid Assett NZ said:

Unless the RP boats make 30 miles of hay the Indian will thunder home 

That easterly doesn’t look like it’s lasts enough before it goes more north, then it’s a run which suits the skinny boats again. 

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12 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

This looks like an Oats race now. BUT....If Karma is true then something will happen to them..? It looks impossible for Comanche now they are that slow in these conditions you have to wonder what the design brief was? Black Jack deserve a win but for some reason they always fail to deliver? There is no way Scallywag can win they are too consistently "BAD" for it to happen. But if someone opens Pandora's box none of this could be true for this race. Who's going to pick it.....????? :D

I wouldn't right off Infotrack, incredible that they're hanging with Oats and BJ in these conditions. Nico will keep it close.

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1 hour ago, BLAK said:

Last minute skipper swap?

scallywag.png

I wouldn’t put too much stock in that, they had the Farr 40 Night Nurse at 40m LOA

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Chutzpah into the IRC overall handicap lead.! Fastest boat in the fleet at 40 foot. Did someone say it could be a 40 footer race? 

P.S. Personally I think the TP52's and mid size boats usually handicap out better than most.. Early days just commentary...

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Looks like BJ has an angle and pressure to suit her compared to the other 100's.

Don't want to go to bed as I want to see this transition play out!!

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11 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

Chutzpah into the IRC overall handicap lead.! Fastest boat in the fleet at 40 foot. Did someone say it could be a 40 footer race? 

P.S. Personally I think the TP52's and mid size boats usually handicap out better than most.. Early days just commentary...

Please let him have it this time

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7 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

Chutzpah into the IRC overall handicap lead.! Fastest boat in the fleet at 40 foot. Did someone say it could be a 40 footer race? 

P.S. Personally I think the TP52's and mid size boats usually handicap out better than most.. Early days just commentary...

Alive, Naval Group, Maserati and URM leading in ORC 0
91515398_SydneyHobartORC0.PNG.15cf5376c12b55d2cca6d4d73859cc70.PNG
Alive.jpg.080256429b59987ed8333471024d7c64.jpgnaval-group-in-neers-after-the-rsh-start_credit-andrea-francolini.jpg.c335797f0c84eec7bffa473e83e6e5f8.jpg
maserati-lrsydgc2016_0104.jpg.82d24e83f491fbba333d8528018142b3.jpgurm-photo.jpg.9b5dbde80f387a7a1f0dbc6e987e8305.jpg

 

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11 minutes ago, Liquid Assett NZ said:

Black Jack on the charge bigtime

Yes best numbers and mode right now. And whilst I can't tell if updates are on equal time ATM it looks like BJ are only 200 metres behind Oats. But going 3-4 knots faster. It looks like a battle of the Skinny's and if one of them wins this race it may spark the end of the rest to the Scrapyard ? Proving skinny is king as an all rounder when kept up to date with latest thinking. Would be sad to see 2 x 100's in OZ instead of 5.. Just sayin......

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2 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

Yes best numbers and mode right now. And whilst I can't tell if updates are on equal time ATM it looks like BJ are only 200 metres behind Oats. But going 3-4 knots faster. It looks like a battle of the Skinny's and if one of them wins this race it may spark the end of the rest to the Scrapyard ? Proving skinny is king as an all rounder when kept up to date with latest thinking. Would be sad to see 2 x 100's in OZ instead of 5.. Just sayin......

Long way to go... but i’m hearing you. 

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Catching-up in the AM here in Florida, as usual Ricko squeals like a school girl every year, with a boat load of pros on-board why does he make every call and looks around everywhere except driving the boat? I would bet WOXI would be a lot faster if he would shut-up and drive the boat, making requests here and there on occasion. You would think IM would punch him in the mouth when he is blowing his ear drum out.

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1 hour ago, terrafirma said:

This looks like an Oats race now. BUT....If Karma is true then

I’ll bite ‘cause I’m an idiot- what karma would that be? 

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And we have a new leader. The Jack Of Spades followed by the Joker.. Go Black.... The Oats gybe does not compute? I wonder if they were forced? Problem? I can't see a reason to head West right now..? Juan Villa may have fallen overboard??? :D

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4 minutes ago, LionIsland said:

I’ll bite ‘cause I’m an idiot- what karma would that be? 

You'd have to be a fan of Karma and to have an intimate understanding of Oats and Mark Richards to understand this one notwithstanding it was said "Light Heartedly" 

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7 minutes ago, Liquid Assett NZ said:

Info too

 

The Indian is starting to rumble out wide great race

Something is going to happen. Not sure where the fuck Oats is headed going backwards in an almost SE direction? Headed towards Mystery Bay wherever that is?

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5 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

Something is going to happen. Not sure where the fuck Oats is headed going backwards in an almost SE direction? 

Perhaps retiring because of something but very strange.
Weather and/or waves aren't rough.

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4 minutes ago, Schakel said:

Perhaps retiring because of something but very strange.
Weather and/or waves aren't rough.

Going 2.4 Knots something not right? A jammed halyard? Almost running dead down wind which could suggest something? Comanche fastest boat in fleet once again. Stan has stuck thick

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Just now, terrafirma said:

Going 2.4 Knots something not right? A jammed halyard? Almost running dead down wind which could suggest something?

Caught in currents. When in cruising mode they would have had the engine started.
It's midnight over there.

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2 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

Going 2.4 Knots something not right? A jammed halyard? Almost running dead down wind which could suggest something? Comanche fastest boat in fleet once again. Stan has stuck thick

Yeah the big around the outside suck it up and have faith maneuver 

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11 hours ago, Swimsailor said:

What's up with the shit aspect ratio???

Australia probably still in the 4:3 age ;) and Sydney-Hobart keeping it old school

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Just now, Liquid Assett NZ said:

Gotta be something wrong on Oats

Nothing on their facebook site.
Slowest of the 100's with 2.3 knots
My guess was very light winds and caught in currents.

Infotrack lying closest doing 5.8 knots.
Further east Black Jack 7.7 Knots.
Scallywag 11.4
Fartest east Comanche 11.2

Fingers crossed.

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11 minutes ago, Liquid Assett NZ said:

Gotta be something wrong on Oats

Avoiding the toilet bowl?

toilet.thumb.png.105b9010118260a96d5f7ee63ced6cba.png

 

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RACE UPDATE | 0000hrs 27 December 2019

 

 

 After a picture-perfect start with blue skies and a north-easterly breeze, the fleet was able to make good time in the first leg of the race heading south from Sydney Heads.

InfoTrack made the initial move in the front running pack being the first yacht to make it in to open water, but soon after were reeled back in and overtaken by the current race record holder Comanche. 

As yachts have made their way further down the coast and pass Batemans Bay, the stronger breezes from earlier in the day have subsided with the pace of the fleet slowing dramatically. 

In the race for overall victory, many yachts have shuffled through the top placings of the leader board with the current weather conditions favouring the 40-foot range of yachts. The full list of current standing across all divisions can be found on the Standings page HERE.

The race suffered two early retirees as yachts made their way south from Sydney Harbour. The current list of retirements are as follows (all crew are safe and well):

  • Faster Forward - Steering problems
  • Hollywood Boulevard - Broken rudder

Stay locked on rolexsydneyhobart.com to keep up to date with the Race Tracker, standings, photos and video throughout the race. Fans, participants and media are encouraged to follow the race on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter as well as tag their Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race content with the official hashtag #RolexSydneyHobart on all social media platforms.

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Just now, SteveJH said:

It looks like there is an angry pack of 60-70 footers not very far behind the 100 footers.

This picture says it all.
1181775076_SydneyHobartwindytracker.PNG.906217511ca111a80f89041069611d2d.PNG

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1.7 knots at the last tracker update, 2.x for the couple of updates prior to that. Surely they must have broken something to be going so slow?

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8 minutes ago, The Dark Knight said:

As they are sat positions I don't know who is missing, but............

 

Its most likey the one with the helicopter that keeps knocking them off the air... 

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Just now, The Dark Knight said:

could lightening strike twice? ;)

they have no doubt tried lightening, but with ll that surgery perhaps they got Botox and filler overdose? Lightning might strike twice, or perhaps they found an especially skilled sunfish? 

 

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2 minutes ago, LionessRacing said:

Its most likey the one with the helicopter that keeps knocking them off the air... 

From the two attachments I posted, it is 100% clear that Scally, BJ and C are on the AIS chart... 

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Looking like the navigation of record Newport Bermuda 2016, finding a thread through the holes... 

Also Commanche, navigated by Mr. Honey

 

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Before people get too excited. The latest satellite AIS display and the transmit times indicates that WOXI is transmitting and it is Infotrack who is missing.

Screen Shot 2019-12-27 at 01.04.27.png

Screen Shot 2019-12-27 at 01.05.11.png

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Take a look at the tracker, the AIS is not their biggest problem, about to be passed by the 60' fleet currently going 2X as fast while they are at 3.7 kts in the hole. 

Probably wishing that they had not gybed West earlier. 

 

image.png.14da3d85d09d6e4f026a1ea236f7117c.png

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Still not looking good for WOXI
Even in comparison with the 60 and 70 footers who are aproaching.

Comanche 19kn

BJ 14kn 

SW 13kn

WOXI 4kn


Naval 8

Alive 9

URM 9

Maserati 10

396821549_SydneyHobartwindytracker2.PNG.d1a4fbdf94d93950f925d0c9d3948c84.PNG

 

 

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Nice job of threading the wind.. Commanche at 19.5 on tracker, WOXI at 1/4 of that, sailing poor COG and 5-10 miles from relief. 

image.thumb.png.15c7317045a72455dbe8ee46ef181a63.png

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Indian up to 19kts...scally at 12 and Oats has the 60 footers breathing down her neck, not looking great for Ricco but there is lots of track left.

@terrafirma, it’s been 5 years, we all know Comanche was never designed for S2H, she is a record setting machine and upwards of 5kts faster than the skinny boats when the breeze comes on. Cutting her up would be a damn shame. The real question I would be asking the Oats/BJ teams are what would they design if given a clean slate in 2020?

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looks like nobody on WOXI is even WATCHING their AIS either... the 60's 3 miles away are passing them at 2x speed and they are headed south at 5 Kts, instead of  coming a few miles East into the breeze

image.png.b2c722b22985e09852e0cea0ad241649.png

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4 hours ago, terrafirma said:

you have to wonder what the design brief was?

Comanche was built to be a record breaker...meaning reaching across oceans at 30 knots...which they were doing yesterday.  Keep in mind Comanche is the current S2H record holder.  She was not designed to drift up the river like WOXI and BJ.

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4 hours ago, terrafirma said:

This looks like an Oats race now. BUT....If Karma is true then something will happen to them..? It looks impossible for Comanche now they are that slow in these conditions you have to wonder what the design brief was? Black Jack deserve a win but for some reason they always fail to deliver? There is no way Scallywag can win they are too consistently "BAD" for it to happen. But if someone opens Pandora's box none of this could be true for this race. Who's going to pick it.....????? :D

Seems as though Pandora stepped in

How only a few hours, change everything. 

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47 minutes ago, samc99us said:

Anyone know what the story with the VO70’s is? Down to 1 this year...I know Wizard is stateside or in Europe?

Wizard is checking ocean races off the owners' list.  They're back in the Caribbean ATM\ then doing Transpac Tahiti with the VO70 Pyewacket.

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26 minutes ago, LionessRacing said:

looks like nobody on WOXI is even WATCHING their AIS either... the 60's 3 miles away are passing them at 2x speed and they are headed south at 5 Kts, instead of  coming a few miles East into the breeze

image.png.b2c722b22985e09852e0cea0ad241649.png

After 13 hours of racing naval is ahead of WOXI.
1395241219_13hoursracingS2H.PNG.aa4bfa05ad5a3de6c190ad1e8a376f32.PNG

 

7 minutes ago, Horn Rock said:

Oats 17 miles behind Indian, but still a lot of tricky stuff ahead - so opportunities.

This looks very tricky, place your bets.
1563533744_13hoursracingS2H2.PNG.cea47ae95a8639f1e018788d31ac6d36.PNG

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6 minutes ago, Schakel said:

This looks very tricky, place your bets.

Wouldn't be surprised if Comanche gybes again to go east.

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As noted a lot of hard navigating and some local knowledge & drifting tactics yet to come.

So far, the Navigation and "ocean sailing" has to go to Stan and crew. 

They set up a conservative start, went outside from the Heads, and ran it  down to their gybe, subsequently have had faster  & deeper sailing , and presuming that Windy has any relation to reality, look positioned to thread the gap between the holes. 

Seeing WOXI stubbornly holding inshore, getting passed by boats 2/3 the length only 3 miles to the East, causes you to wonder if they have a special insight or just have bad choices.

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8 minutes ago, Swimsailor said:

Comanche was built to be a record breaker...meaning reaching across oceans at 30 knots...which they were doing yesterday.  Keep in mind Comanche is the current S2H record holder.  She was not designed to drift up the river like WOXI and BJ.

Before she became another Aussie boat, she was as human powered as possible and actually participated in the classics and sailed across the Atlantic and Pacific.

 

A lot of the Aussie 100fters are basically big fish in small pond duck queens. 

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Amazing what Comanche is able to do right now.  Stan Honey is some kind of wizard.  I like Black Jack purely because she looks so damn good.  But I know a good guy on WOXI so I feel bad they're getting so stuffed right now.  Exciting race so far!

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Wow, maybe Ritcho lost his voice and no one knows what to do?
Go the Indian.

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Peter Isler did a prerace forecast on Facebook yesterday that showed a route very similar to Comanche's based on the GFS model.

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It looks like they could use a bit more wind. I'll see if I can send cyclone Sarai to Bass Strait. Anyone likes to come for a sail today?

Screenshot_20191227-042653.thumb.png.7311f576fe80f2759128cc806047e98d.png

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2 minutes ago, FinnFish said:

Game over.

Not necessarily, lots of distance to cover and flaky/flukey winds to negotiate

 

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2 minutes ago, Swimsailor said:

Have you watched this race before?

On many occasions, but it's the first time I've seen the RP66 Alive leveling up with its 100ft sister.

 

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34 minutes ago, Fiji Bitter said:

It looks like they could use a bit more wind. I'll see if I can send cyclone Sarai to Bass Strait. Anyone likes to come for a sail today?

Screenshot_20191227-042653.thumb.png.7311f576fe80f2759128cc806047e98d.png

Thanks, But no thanks:D

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1 hour ago, Fiji Bitter said:

It looks like they could use a bit more wind. I'll see if I can send cyclone Sarai to Bass Strait. Anyone likes to come for a sail today?

Screenshot_20191227-042653.thumb.png.7311f576fe80f2759128cc806047e98d.png

It will be pumping at Twin Pass 

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Interesting that the more inshore track paid for the smaller boats catching up but not for the bigger boats. Comanche seems to have gybed around it.

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Bit of a nerve shredding night for those boys out there. Can’t see the wind. Following your competition by AIS only, sail changing in and out with the breeze, gybing on a prayer hoping this will be the last one to shoot you off and into the next system, hoping that it’s not a shift that sends the back markers right around you.
 

Brilliant tactical and luck match

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For sure tactics are playing a role but one must wonder if something broke on  Wild Oats. 

What are the odds on the TP’s jumping the front to stay in essentially the same band as the leaders?

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53 minutes ago, Schakel said:

Guess the Oatley family had a better scenario in mind.
Sometimes, too much competition isn't really family like.
Any one knowing more about what slowed them down?

I think they're getting beat fair and square.  Which is as it should be.

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Stanger things has happened,
Magic, they get more wind in the middle of the nigth.
WOXI getting it first.
699735936_SydneyHobartwindytracker4.PNG.c0e7354fd644c0d45087e4617f2acd0d.PNG

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