dachopper

Sydney to Hobart 2019

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15 minutes ago, PIL66 - XL2 said:

Very late program.  No crew confirmed.. rig yet to go in.. no training.... 

Where do I sign!?

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55 minutes ago, SCANAS said:

In my humble opinion a Canting Keel 46 with foils should hang pretty close to a box rule 52. 

Rates just higher! 1.406

 vs 1.397 Ichi &

 1.371 Old Celestial / Wot Now

where did you get those numbers from? They're complete bollocks.

IRC: https://ircrating.org/irc-racing/online-tcc-listings/

Maverick - 1.388

Ichi Bum - 1.407

Celestial - 1.382

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4 minutes ago, duncan (the other one) said:

where did you get those numbers from? They're complete bollocks.

IRC: https://ircrating.org/irc-racing/online-tcc-listings/

Maverick - 1.388

Ichi Bum - 1.407

Celestial - 1.382

From race results:
https://www.rolexsydneyhobart.com/standings?categoryId=0&raceId=113

&

https://www.rorc.org/raceresults/2017/ircoverall14.html

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Thanks guys.  Boats get re-optimised all the time, but it seems Maverick's in the ball park with a TP52, and so her performance in that race was about what should be expected.  I wasn't sure if she was killing it, or barking.  Neither, it seems.

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12 minutes ago, duncan (the other one) said:

2018 and 2017 respectively.

 

IRC rating site is the only definitive source to use.

Yeah I didn’t think Recidivist was going to start a spreadsheet, just a general idea. I’m sure there will be some new certs issued before the race. 

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10 hours ago, Recidivist said:

What's it rate?

No, really.  I was watching it on the tracker in the recent Newcastle/Bird Island race - until they broke something they were hanging on well a couple of miles behind Gweilo the TP52, but I couldn't find ratings to indicate whether they should have been there or not.

Oh, and in that race, Celestial put in a very good performance - was that the ex-Ambition, or the previous Celestial?  Anyone know?

Well... From one of the Euro races, their beam reach speed is incredible..... 60 foot botin catching incredible.... for a 46 footer that is.

 

Most of the other big races they have done.... wind has generally been light with the odd exception, so maybe we see the full potential of a DSS optimized boat for once....... something tells me the IMOCA 60 style foils are the way to go though!

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7 hours ago, dachopper said:

Well... From one of the Euro races, their beam reach speed is incredible..... 60 foot botin catching incredible.... for a 46 footer that is.

 

Most of the other big races they have done.... wind has generally been light with the odd exception, so maybe we see the full potential of a DSS optimized boat for once....... something tells me the IMOCA 60 style foils are the way to go though!

it'll wholly depend on how the major offshore rating systems (IRC) treat them.

History tells us fast-for-their-length boats are one-trick ponies that never rate well overall, and therefore don't end up being too popular.

 

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1 hour ago, duncan (the other one) said:

it'll wholly depend on how the major offshore rating systems (IRC) treat them.

History tells us fast-for-their-length boats are one-trick ponies that never rate well overall, and therefore don't end up being too popular.

 

Yes the problem for Maverick is that they must carry the handicap of a 52 footer with them all the time despite only performing like a 52 footer some of the time. They are penalized for the DSS however it only works in some conditions not all. I would like to know what their results have been in light air races etc?

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3 hours ago, terrafirma said:

Yes the problem for Maverick is that they must carry the handicap of a 52 footer with them all the time despite only performing like a 52 footer some of the time. They are penalized for the DSS however it only works in some conditions not all. I would like to know what their results have been in light air races etc?

That's not a DSS-specific argument, it's a single number handicap argument.   A heavy cruiser-racer has a fixed handicap delta vs a TP25, in some weather condition/course combos the cruiser-racer will always win and in others, the TP52 will always win.  A DSS boat certainly makes that delta more extreme given that its RM varies with speed, unlike a non-DSS boat. 

A single number handicap is necessarily an average across up, down and reaching conditions and a range of wind strengths.  It will always struggle to fairly handicap disparate boats so weather vs course geometry become the main determinants of success in a lot of races.  That as much less the case in IOR type forming days, but I don't know anyone who wants to go back there.

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10 minutes ago, DickDastardly said:

That's not a DSS-specific argument, it's a single number handicap argument.   A heavy cruiser-racer has a fixed handicap delta vs a TP25, in some weather condition/course combos the cruiser-racer will always win and in others, the TP52 will always win.  A DSS boat certainly makes that delta more extreme given that its RM varies with speed, unlike a non-DSS boat. 

A single number handicap is necessarily an average across up, down and reaching conditions and a range of wind strengths.  It will always struggle to fairly handicap disparate boats so weather vs course geometry become the main determinants of success in a lot of races.  That as much less the case in IOR type forming days, but I don't know anyone who wants to go back there.

IMS post-constructed weather.

 

You know you want to

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52 minutes ago, duncan (the other one) said:

IMS post-constructed weather.

 

You know you want to

by the time the millennials and subsequent generations are dominating boat ownership and racing, there will be a new handicap system that calculates the results so that it's a dead heat for first for all competitors, so everyone is a winner. DNF competitors will also be promoted to winner so as to not make them feel left out.

For the 100th S2H there will be 200 tattersalls prizes handed out The golden age of yachting to come..... 

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Seeing as though it’s a rich get richer economy. There will be less & less domestic entries going forward. 

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1 hour ago, duncan (the other one) said:

IMS post-constructed weather.

 

You know you want to

I daren't mention it...and it's a proven turkey in any case.

There's no perfect answer.  Closest is probably grouping boats of similar DLR/Sailing Characteristics together in Divisions rather than by size.  This is sort-of done in some races.  It does mean that the overall winner and placegetters will probably cluster in one division but that's no less an evil than presently IMHO.

 

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On 10/29/2019 at 2:13 PM, Recidivist said:

What's it rate?

No, really.  I was watching it on the tracker in the recent Newcastle/Bird Island race - until they broke something they were hanging on well a couple of miles behind Gweilo the TP52, but I couldn't find ratings to indicate whether they should have been there or not.

Oh, and in that race, Celestial put in a very good performance - was that the ex-Ambition, or the previous Celestial?  Anyone know?

Ambition still in it's pen at Sandy Yacht Club as of last night.

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29 minutes ago, Flippin Out said:

Ambition still in it's pen at Sandy Yacht Club as of last night.

Wow.  If the "old" Celestial performed so well, what is Sam Haynes hoping for by "upgrading" - to beat Ichi?

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8 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

by the time the millennials and subsequent generations are dominating boat ownership and racing, there will be a new handicap system that calculates the results so that it's a dead heat for first for all competitors, so everyone is a winner. DNF competitors will also be promoted to winner so as to not make them feel left out.

For the 100th S2H there will be 200 tattersalls prizes handed out The golden age of yachting to come..... 

Any chance of you lining up for the 100th Great Race in your newly acquired $80k TP52?

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8 hours ago, SPORTSCAR said:

Any chance of you lining up for the 100th Great Race in your newly acquired $80k TP52?

Not a chance, I'll be bitching about the ch7 8k broadcast from my nursing home. Maybe Vicky will do the race.

 

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17 hours ago, DickDastardly said:

I daren't mention it...and it's a proven turkey in any case.

There's no perfect answer.  Closest is probably grouping boats of similar DLR/Sailing Characteristics together in Divisions rather than by size.  This is sort-of done in some races.  It does mean that the overall winner and placegetters will probably cluster in one division but that's no less an evil than presently IMHO.

 

It is simple, IRC in a long race you just gamble hard.

optimise the boat for a set of conditions really hard

get that you win if not bad luck

this is the biggest failing of IRC.

At least IOR for its fault kept all boats whether 30 feet of 70 fleet in a pretty tight envelope

sure weather will always play a big part but the differences now are so exaggerated.

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Had a run through the list. Not many under 1.000 Rating. Take 5 and Southern Myth for the most sailing?

Hate to say it but the Corinthian / non Corinthian split isn't bringing in the adventurers. Maybe the racers want it that way?

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On 10/29/2019 at 3:02 PM, PIL66 - XL2 said:

Very late program.  No crew confirmed.. rig yet to go in.. no training.... 

Why are they all leaning out like that? Are the being sick?

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On 10/30/2019 at 1:49 PM, SCANAS said:

Seeing as though it’s a rich get richer economy. There will be less & less domestic entries going forward. 

You free over xmas? Thinking about this I will need someone to run the other boat.

https://yachthub.com/list/yachts-for-sale/used/sail-monohulls/volvo-60-two-volvo-60-commercial-charter-yachts/194418

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8 minutes ago, LB 15 said:

You free over xmas? Thinking about this I will need someone to run the other boat.

https://yachthub.com/list/yachts-for-sale/used/sail-monohulls/volvo-60-two-volvo-60-commercial-charter-yachts/194418

Have to mothball them for a year, entries have closed. TC is out, on the bench for another. If not we should take @shaggybaxter Pogo out to Lord Howe for Boxing Day lunch i reckon, only be an overnighter from the seaway on a beam reach. 

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3 minutes ago, SCANAS said:

Have to mothball them for a year, entries have closed. 

But what if we tell them we are rich? Aren't you going on Matrix? As soon as I heard who was going I excused myself from further competition.

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13 minutes ago, LB 15 said:

But what if we tell them we are rich? Aren't you going on Matrix? As soon as I heard who was going I excused myself from further competition.

Surely they’ll allow us just based on SA points! 

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2 hours ago, SCANAS said:

Surely they’ll allow us just based on SA points! 

Weren’t you meant to be doing this year on TC? I remember your Interview with the CY last year saying you would be back.

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22 minutes ago, Next Level said:

Weren’t you meant to be doing this year on TC? I remember your Interview with the CY last year saying you would be back.

Yeah 75th was always the goal, be good to race with some similar vintage boats. Brand new boom just went on a couple of weeks ago too but owner pulled the pin. 

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3 minutes ago, SCANAS said:

Yeah 75th was always the goal, be good to race with some similar vintage boats. Brand new boom just went on a couple of weeks ago too but owner pulled the pin. 

Did you do any of the delivery home last year??

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12 minutes ago, lydia said:

Did you do any of the delivery home last year??

Sydney to Coffs, motor died. Stuck in Hobart waiting for engineering shop to fix the boom & a mechanic to fix the motor. 

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10 minutes ago, SCANAS said:

Sydney to Coffs, motor died. Stuck in Hobart waiting for engineering shop to fix the boom & a mechanic to fix the motor. 

Good

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On 10/30/2019 at 1:40 AM, terrafirma said:

Yes the problem for Maverick is that they must carry the handicap of a 52 footer with them all the time despite only performing like a 52 footer some of the time. They are penalized for the DSS however it only works in some conditions not all. I would like to know what their results have been in light air races etc?

I think speed wise, they keep up with Black pearl Carkeek 47 in the lighter stuff, but are slower than the 52's.... talking upwind and downwind

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8 hours ago, dachopper said:

I think speed wise, they keep up with Black pearl Carkeek 47 in the lighter stuff, but are slower than the 52's.... talking upwind and downwind

well, enough keyboard bullshit.

Cabbage tree race this Friday - and it looks like broad reaching up to the island (90nm) in 15-20+, flat water.

If Maverick can't demonstrate her superiority in those conditions, she won't anywhere.

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Its going to be a busy harbour at the start with the Short Haul race 30 mins before the 73 boat fleet get underway.  Also RSYS an RANSA twilight races happening too.  73 boats on the start line !!

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7 hours ago, duncan (the other one) said:

well, enough keyboard bullshit.

Cabbage tree race this Friday - and it looks like broad reaching up to the island (90nm) in 15-20+, flat water.

If Maverick can't demonstrate her superiority in those conditions, she won't anywhere.

How do you define superiority in this context ie what boats should it beat over the line or on handicap. 

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35 minutes ago, SCANAS said:

How do you define superiority in this context ie what boats should it beat over the line or on handicap. 

Handicap. Pick something longer with similar handicap, and she needs to be significantly ahead of it at the island, because it's all waterline upwind after that

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41 minutes ago, trt131 said:

Its going to be a busy harbour at the start with the Short Haul race 30 mins before the 73 boat fleet get underway.  Also RSYS an RANSA twilight races happening too.  73 boats on the start line !!

Wild Oats and BJ lining up again, hopefully the line is set a bit further out of Rushcutters bay than a few years ago!

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Unless CYCA have an aquatic permit to close the harbour like the Hobart start they are very confined by the maritime restrictions ie. no marks in any of the channels  Bound to be a bun fight.

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22 minutes ago, trt131 said:

Unless CYCA have an aquatic permit to close the harbour like the Hobart start they are very confined by the maritime restrictions ie. no marks in any of the channels  Bound to be a bun fight.

The year I'm thinking of they had it set right up inside of Clarke island, out by Shark where the Wednesday start would have been a better choice, ended up with a boat through their window if I remember rightly...

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22 minutes ago, JonRowe said:

The year I'm thinking of they had it set right up inside of Clarke island, out by Shark where the Wednesday start would have been a better choice, ended up with a boat through their window if I remember rightly...

Indeed...  that's what happens when a swan 65 (?) tries to mount a 34 footer and ends up dragging it along backwards by the backstay.

 

Weather's looking a bit sporty for Fri night.. might be postponed?

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13 hours ago, trt131 said:

Isn't it a Cat 2 race, if so no postponement I would think.

you would think so.. but the trigger seems to be Gale Warning. Think it has something to do with the RMS Aquatic license.

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18 hours ago, JonRowe said:

The year I'm thinking of they had it set right up inside of Clarke island, out by Shark where the Wednesday start would have been a better choice, ended up with a boat through their window if I remember rightly...

Jon,

 

I think your memory needs a little attention.  That start was off Point Piper with the start boat close to the point and the pin end close to the shipping channel, no where near Clarke Island.  Duncan is correct about the incident.  I think the issue was it being a qualifier and a lot of boats not being regular racers not know how to start within the rules.

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54 minutes ago, trt131 said:

I think the issue was it being a qualifier and a lot of boats not being regular racers not know how to start within the rules.

Fuck if that was the issue they shouldn’t be going on to start on the busiest start line in Aus for mixed fleet!  

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6 hours ago, terrafirma said:

Cabbage Tree Island warm up . Who got the better of who anyone know? 

 

 

Was this issue so pressing that you needed to ask the same dumbass question in 2 threads?

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4 minutes ago, Gorn FRANTIC!! said:

Was this issue so pressing that you needed to ask the same dumbass question in 2 threads?

It was relevant for 2 threads IMO. Did it really bother you that much that you had to question it? FFS ain't you the forum Police...! 

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1 hour ago, DtM said:

Offer him $80,000 for it.

yeah, and then what, keep it at anchor and not sail it ever because I can't afford to do anything with it.... ;)

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35 minutes ago, The Dark Knight said:

yeah, and then what, keep it at anchor and not sail it ever because I can't afford to do anything with it.... ;)

Perhaps that's the reason he's not sailing it too often? Then again Oats, BJ and Comanche haven't been out that much this year. You'd think he'd do the Cabbage Race as a warm up? Running costs for a 100 footer are hundred's of thousands..

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7 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

Perhaps that's the reason he's not sailing it too often? Then again Oats, BJ and Comanche haven't been out that much this year. You'd think he'd do the Cabbage Race as a warm up? Running costs for a 100 footer are hundred's of thousands..

BJ & Oats have been getting make overs and perhaps C has not been out because Cooney has been playing with his other toys? The Oatleys have WOX to play with.

Better to buy a boat you can afford to sail

 

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4 hours ago, trt131 said:

I think your memory needs a little attention.  That start was off Point Piper with the start boat close to the point and the pin end close to the shipping channel, no where near Clarke Island.  Duncan is correct about the incident.  I think the issue was it being a qualifier and a lot of boats not being regular racers not know how to start within the rules.

It was a couple of years ago so I'll admit to being hazy but I recall it being much further back towards clark than the point.

 

The issue was not the number of boats per se, it was two 100fters having a battle on the line causing the fleet to try to squeeze into the other half of the line above them. On the general recall I seem to remember them then starting a bit behind everyone and no issues occurred. Of course if I'm remembering right anyway, lots happened since then ;)

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21 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

Perhaps that's the reason he's not sailing it too often? Then again Oats, BJ and Comanche haven't been out that much this year. You'd think he'd do the Cabbage Race as a warm up? Running costs for a 100 footer are hundred's of thousands..

They are a fair bit more than that. Try 1.5 to get to the start line. In any given year.

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7 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

What's the go with Infotrack? Do they race at all during the year or just do a qualification race and then the S2H?

They've done the Goldcoast race too in the past? And some "corporate entertainment", I had thought it might have a crack at Hammo given some past "bar karate" but I guess it was talked out of it.

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Will be interesting to see if the postpone Cabbage Tree Race till tomorrow morning seeing as the Predictwind forecast is 25 gusting 35, bet they are not keen on sending 67 yachts out in that

image.thumb.png.9674930f3113942d08d6f54195c12f08.png

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I note that there has been a Gale Warning issued for the Hunter Coast today.  It will probably pass through quite quickly though.

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The BOM might actually be on the ball with their warnings for a change, peak gust for the day has just been recorded at Nobbys Lighthouse, 40kn from the NW at 1:10pm.

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20-30 Knots and then a few changes in direction NW going South to SW and may shift West 15-25 later on in the evening. I would have thought that's do-able for the race given it's an Ocean Race? Start still 5 hours away? Post Poning wouldn't achieve a lot as the weekend's weather looks to be in the 20-30 knot range anyway? They'd call the race off otherwise if your saying that wouldn't send them out in this? 

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On 10/30/2019 at 3:29 PM, Flippin Out said:

Ambition still in it's pen at Sandy Yacht Club as of last night.

Trucked out of SYC just yesterday. 

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7 minutes ago, SPORTSCAR said:

Trucked out of SYC just yesterday. 

I saw yesterday that a new listing for Ambition was added to Yachthub yesterday as sold. Broker trying to boost his ego by advertising he sold it? Also Celestial was added as sold as well.

Perhaps the sail of Celestial allowed the Ambition purchase to be finalised?

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19 minutes ago, The Dark Knight said:

I saw yesterday that a new listing for Ambition was added to Yachthub yesterday as sold. Broker trying to boost his ego by advertising he sold it? Also Celestial was added as sold as well.

Perhaps the sail of Celestial allowed the Ambition purchase to be finalised?

Ads 1 photo of each, no detail at all. Why bother, just makes them look lazy.

Ex-Ambition to be the new Celestial and Ex-Celestial to be the new Smuggler. The circle keeps turning. 

 

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12 minutes ago, SPORTSCAR said:

Ads 1 photo of each, no detail at all. Why bother, just makes them look lazy.

Ex-Ambition to be the new Celestial and Ex-Celestial to be the new Smuggler. The circle keeps turning. 

 

I like the FB post

Quote

This week we bid farewell to our TP52 which has been sold unexpectedly and is headed to Sydney to a very keen owner. 

 

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Can’t blame the broker for telling ppl he sells boats. Some ppl might look back on his / her old listings. 

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31 minutes ago, SPORTSCAR said:

Ads 1 photo of each, no detail at all. Why bother, just makes them look lazy.

Ex-Ambition to be the new Celestial and Ex-Celestial to be the new Smuggler. The circle keeps turning. 

 

So the guy who just sold Ambition is upgrading to? 

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Just now, Gorn FRANTIC!! said:

Scallywag

Haha I was going to write that!! Set a few west coaster records!

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20 minutes ago, SCANAS said:

So the guy who just sold Ambition is upgrading to? 

Is Ambition the ex Azzura TP52? Makes sense as it's a later boat than Celestial. I bit more competition for Ichi Ban I take it?

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17 minutes ago, terrafirma said:

Is Ambition the ex Azzura TP52? Makes sense as it's a later boat than Celestial. I bit more competition for Ichi Ban I take it?

No, the ex Azzura boat is now Envy Scooters. Ambition/Celestial was the 2011 J/V designed Audi All4One later became Beecom then Temptation III.

Both Envy & New Celestial were 2011 design from the same office so more than likely very near sisters.

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38 minutes ago, SCANAS said:

Can’t blame the broker for telling ppl he sells boats. Some ppl might look back on his / her old listings. 

Considering that broker had nothing to do with either of those sales, it is opportunistic advertising at best,

Questionable ethics at worst

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5 hours ago, trt131 said:

I note that there has been a Gale Warning issued for the Hunter Coast today.  It will probably pass through quite quickly though.

Still in place for today and tomorrow... interesting scenario, waiting for the RO to make a call? 

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Looking at marine traffic there's already a number of boats entered out on the harbour including Infotrack & Wild Oats, the CYCA start boat is also on station so I'm guessing they're planning to proceed as scheduled. 

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1 hour ago, newbiesporty said:

Considering that broker had nothing to do with either of those sales, it is opportunistic advertising at best,

Questionable ethics at worst

Brokers and ethics??? LOL

 

39 minutes ago, SPORTSCAR said:

 

:P

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No. Sailor Girl is out of the country on holidays. You get can an idea of what's happening by watching AIS on Marine Traffic. Bow caddy media will probably have some videos of the start by tomorrow afternoon. 

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1 hour ago, newbiesporty said:

Considering that broker had nothing to do with either of those sales, it is opportunistic advertising at best,

Questionable ethics at worst

Lol! What’s he hoping for then? 

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2 hours ago, terrafirma said:

Is Ambition the ex Azzura TP52? Makes sense as it's a later boat than Celestial. I bit more competition for Ichi Ban I take it?

 

1 hour ago, Gorn FRANTIC!! said:

No, the ex Azzura boat is now Envy Scooters. Ambition/Celestial was the 2011 J/V designed Audi All4One later became Beecom then Temptation III.

Both Envy & New Celestial were 2011 design from the same office so more than likely very near sisters.

So what’s Chris Dare getting if he’s selling a 2011 TP? 

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Looks like Chinese Whisper may be headed for a premature drink & shower. WO has lit the fuse and left the harbour at 27kn.

Edit: looks like No Limit could be heading home early as well. 

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Smash and bang.! Maverick 3rd on Line Honours according to the website. Gweilo second. Ichi Ban??? Black Jack around 5 miles ahead of second place. Sounds like we could have a few boats coming back early. No surprise

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Nasty night out there. 8 retirements so far. Take care peoples, be fast but be safe.

Edit, 9 out now as Zen joins the list.

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3 hours ago, DickDastardly said:

 

MOB on About Time, recovered safe and well

Jesus... good to hear.

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5 hours ago, SCANAS said:

 

So what’s Chris Dare getting if he’s selling a 2011 TP? 

Stepped back to his SB20 for the Nats in Hobart a week or so ago. 

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Does this mean all the boat that retired, fail to qualify for the Sydney to Hobart? 

 

Unless they do do a separate certain offshore passage?

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45 minutes ago, Sugarscoop said:

Does this mean all the boat that retired, fail to qualify for the Sydney to Hobart? 

Unless they do do a separate certain offshore passage?

There is no fail to qualify really, theres plenty of opportunity, as you yourself say, they can do a passage, just has to be over 24hours and over 100miles (I think)

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