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Michael -- Tropical WX, Gulf Coast

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just called a friend in Honduras....the islands have had some heavy rain not much more....the cisterns are  just about full 

 

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2 hours ago, dacapo said:

just called a friend in Honduras....the islands have had some heavy rain not much more....the cisterns are  just about full 

 

Good to hear. It's all very much about the potential at this point. I hope and suspect that the HWRF solution is junk. But if it does spin up there will not be a lot of time before landfall. Worth keeping an eye on.

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Hoping this isn't much of anything. Lots of friends in the area.  And more selfishly we have a week at Cape San Blas starting next Sunday. 

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1 hour ago, MisterMoon said:

Hoping this isn't much of anything. Lots of friends in the area.  And more selfishly we have a week at Cape San Blas starting next Sunday. 

SHIPS is showing significant wind shear for the next 48 hours. HWRF is in line with the other modeling now. So, a less bad prognosis than yesterday. Hopefully that shear will keep the bugger in check. At the moment most models are predicting H1 at landfall. WYSIWYG.

hwrf_mslp_wind_14L_23.png

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I think that the track shown above is a tad left of the eventual track. Apalachicola and Carribelle are more likely to see the severe effects.

The only things slowing the intensification for now are slight westerly shear and some topographical friction with western Cuba. Once the system clears western Cuba, the shear is forecast to relax and Michael should ramp fast to a Major Hurricane. The final peak intensity may be a tad underdone by the models.

More later...

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Thanks, D.A.   If the model is slightly underdone, then this is going to be a bad one for the Panhandle.  I hope Pensacola gets more of the safe-side, they're the major population center.   Problem is, that puts Tallahassee, the other population center, in the middle of the Cone:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153129.shtml?gm_track#contents

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Not getting the big publicity Irma did  ...but it is going to do big damage in a small area

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39 minutes ago, Rasputin22 said:

Looking like the surge east of Appalachicola will be brutal.

AL14_2018100800_ECENS_0-120h_large.png

The one disadvantage of the EC is its slow update rate. The LLC ended up well right of that entire ensemble group but we need to wait half a day or a day for the model to reflect the observations. The GFS is advancing the storm much faster than EC. So, it makes landfall more to the left. The GFS is at least closer to reality where it starts:

AL14_2018100812_GEFS_0-120h_large.png

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Sorry wrong link. How do I get rid of it?

 

Think I got rid of old link.

Here is a new look that will be interesting to watch as this plays out

last24hrs.gif

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1 hour ago, Rasputin22 said:
 

Sorry wrong link. How do I get rid of it?

 

Think I got rid of old link.

Here is a new look that will be interesting to watch as this plays out

last24hrs.gif

^^^ Those images are pure magic. Be careful of the time stamps.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/description.html

" The MIMIC product is a synthetic blend of tropical cyclone imagery from five low-Earth orbiting satellite instruments: the DMSP-13/14/15 SSM/I (85 GHz channel), the TRMM TMI (89 GHz channel) and the Aqua AMSR-E (85 GHz (A) channel). The signal from these channels is strongly attenuated from hydrometeors generated by deep convection, and therefore the imagery is often used as a proxy for the distribution of precipitation. In the observation of tropical cyclones, the microwave signal can penetrate through obstructing cloud tops and uniquely reveal the structure of the eyewall.

...

Because motion in the vicinity of the eyewall is typically faster than the temporal availability of the 85GHz imagery (cells/signals frequently accomplish a full rotation between overpasses), the MIMIC algorithm makes a simple time-weighted interpolation between bounded images, with no advection, within a radius of 55 km (0.5 great circle degrees) from the rotational center. This assumption is valid only under continuous "regeneration" of signal between two "real" images at a fixed location with respect to the rotational center. Although this method does not represent every condition, it was found to be the most effective in general... "

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Looks like we're pretty much on the edge, or in the middle of everyone's projection..... Oh joy.

 I sharpened the chainsaw that I can't use, just in case someone want's to come by and clear fallen Water Oaks out of the road.....

 I can drive the tractor, and pull logs..... If I can get the damned tractor to start (Why do these things always break down at times like this?)

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1 minute ago, Rasputin22 said:

Waiting for the Tropical Tidbit here on the Redneck Riviera.

 

Good luck and stay safe... someone is going to get an ass kicking fortunatley no large population centers but those coastal townd  barrier inlanders will be roughed up

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Thanks Sail,

    I may move my little tri in the morning if it is not too late. Should have done it today but we will get wind out of the East (bad) until it goes around to the NE and then North which I will be protected from. Here is an interesting graphic which sort of confirms my suspicion that a clever tropical system can (and will!) act like a heat seeker missile and track right along the highest SST's (sea surface temps) which in the case would be the Gulf Loop. Exactly what this seems to show.

 

DpBOxI0W4AAMqYX.jpg:large

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Thanks Sail,

    I may move my little tri in the morning if it is not too late. Should have done it today but we will get wind out of the East (bad) until it goes around to the NE and then North which I will be protected from. Here is an interesting graphic which sort of confirms my suspicion that a clever tropical system can (and will!) act like a heat seeker missile and track right along the highest SST's (sea surface temps) which in the case would be the Gulf Loop. Exactly what this seems to show.

 

DpBOxI0W4AAMqYX.jpg:large

 

 

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   I actually can't stand that weatherman on the NBC affiliate in Mobile. They had a really good young black weatherman there for years who really knew his stuff and had actually saved lives by calling people he knew to be in the path of the tornado tracks and telling them to 'hunker down'. I hope he found greener pastures but then Chan 15 hires this last guy from Southern Cal! Who the hell hires a weatherman from there? Makes me think of the weatherman on Modern Family, Rainer Shine!

https://y.yarn.co/5325d1e1-2c73-462e-bb0d-d19bf11a6ced.mp4?1539043069596

https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2017/03/30/6869224483068623598/1024x576_MP4_6869224483068623598.mp4

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Getting pretty blustery here on the Gulf. You got to love when those under threat can keep a sense of humor. Just east of here

DpB9ncuV4AAGqAW.jpg:large

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The gulf is warm, it was warm last year and Harvey was the first hurricane to hit the Gulf Coast with no weakening.  I would be very wary and get out early. It's not a monster storm but it's going to be nasty and could easily be more powerful than projections.  Hope all in the path stay safe.

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   Up the other side of the bay in Mobile there have been some local controversies laterly with the drag queens taking over roles traditionally not available to them. First there was the 'Prancing Elites' baton twirlers that created quite a stir at Mardi Gras with their antics, then a couple of weeks ago a group of drag queens scheduled a series of Read to the Kids sessions at the public libraries. Neither was very popular with the local rednecks.

Image result for prancing elites 2018

 

Story Hour

Image result for drag queen story hour

 

    Now it seems that they are moving into Jim Cantore's turf as evidenced by this recent sighting! Move over Jim.

 

 

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I love the Ft Walton/Destin area and wish all of you the best.  Please be safe.  

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Michael continues to ingest dry air from the SW quadrant from time to time.  I think this is continuing to limit the rapid intensification we might otherwise be seeing.  If he can seal off that SW quadrant from shear/dry air we should see a truly rapid intensification period.  Good thoughts for all of my friends in the panhandle. Prepare early, leave town if you are in the storm surge zones.

20182821242_GOES16-ABI-gm-13-500x500.jpg

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1 hour ago, Ajax said:

BWAHAHAHAH!

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/10/08/jim-cantore-no-trespassing-hurricane-michael-florida/1574283002/

Serves this asshole right for turning weather into "suffering porn" for clicks and ratings, even if it is in jest.

I can't even watch hurricane news anymore.

This is a very dangerous storm, evacuate right now or die!

OK, WTF are you doing there then?

Look at me standing out in the rain while the wind blows stuff around and I brace myself from falling over!

OK, WTF are those people walking by behind you with no issues doing then?

 

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3 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

I can't even watch hurricane news anymore.

This is a very dangerous storm, evacuate right now or die!

OK, WTF are you doing there then?

Look at me standing out in the rain while the wind blows stuff around and I brace myself from falling over!

OK, WTF are those people walking by behind you with no issues doing then?

 

Don't worry, one day one of these weather stars is likely to be impaled by a straw flying at 150mph in the back of the head and blood will spurt out of it as he keels over. Could happen.

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When I lived in the Keys, a neighbor and local dj went outside to check on his boat during a hurricane and had his neck broken by a sheet of plywood that got him from behind at 75mph. Amazingly, the part that nailed him was rotted and he wasn’t paralyzed. The piece was still on his property after the storm and it had a perfect mouse hole shape where it hit him. Nobody else was injured during that storm and no boats were lost- not even his.

 

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I've seen where corrugated roofing metal can get well into the trunk of a coconut palm during a hurricane. There was a piece in one of the palms on the horseshoe court at SKINNY LEGS in Coral Bay St John that they trimmed the metal back to about an inch proud of the tree trunk as an example. It had penetrated about 3 or 4 inches into the trunk and there was about a foot across where it cut into the wood. Don't have a photo of that but look at this example!

When roofing tin hits a coconut tree at 170mph amazing things happen

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The vid above obviously fake, grass in background barely moving.  I don't remember exactly but at some point about 50 the rain goes horizontal so you can't see shit, approaching 100 the wind is so loud you can't hear shit and good luck trying to walk around in that.  Several hurricanes have passed over at night and forget trying to sleep.  It isn't just the intensity it's the length of time before it is over. 

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Just now, d'ranger said:

The vid above obviously fake, grass in background barely moving.  I don't remember exactly but at some point about 50 the rain goes horizontal so you can't see shit, approaching 100 the wind is so loud you can't hear shit and good luck trying to walk around in that.  Several hurricanes have passed over at night and forget trying to sleep.  It isn't just the intensity it's the length of time before it is over. 

d'

    You are so astute. I think those rednecks were spoofing on the Jim Cantores of the weather panic world. 

     You got to love these fools;

 

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6 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

The vid above obviously fake, grass in background barely moving.  

LOL........makes be wonder about some of your political conclusion .....you are a sharp cookie !

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11 minutes ago, SailBlueH2O said:

LOL........makes be wonder about some of your political conclusion .....you are a sharp cookie !

FIFY.   

Rasputin yes I know they were spoofing.  The vid you posted is hilarious. I was around when this started in 61 when Dan Rather directed the TV coverage including on the scene in Galveston. Of course the storm came ashore 90 miles down the coast.  The danger is people watch this and think hey it's not that bad, I know a number of guys who rode it out on their sailboat, none of would ever do it again.  If lines broke in hurricane winds not possible to do much more than kiss your ass goodbye. 

Water and trees will kill.   Meanwhile, just like all those reality shows there is a guy standing with a camera during all of this.  My better half has always watched coverage when storms have hit us and is just ridiculous.  Again, hoping everyone is out of harm's way for Michael. 

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Ras which side of the center of circulation will you most likely be on ? and how far from the coast are you ?...it's going to tear some shit up....not catastrophic but a big mess. Those giant tee top gas station awnings should be outlawed as built these days...RaceTrac et al....stay safe !...The arm pit of the panhandle is going to get a lot of water and surge packed into it

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I'm well to the West of the expected landfall. I went out to the dock and put on some more docklines and chafe gear and some more fenders just before dock and while doing so it went surprisingly calm. It was the strong East wind that we have had for the last two days starting to veer around more to the North and now our beach and dock are in the lee of the peninsula and tall pines to the North. We may get 40 kts during the early morning hours but that will be from the North and it should also push the surge back out into the Gulf. The neighbors yard is just flooding and the docks on either side are under but ours was built a bit higher and just the end at the surge level. That should all change by daylight. Here is a good animation of Windy showing the final chapter for the landfall. It is going to trash some of my favorite places down East on the Panhandle.

Latest looper from TIdbits

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=meso1&product=ir

 

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   I just took my last walk out to the dock to check on my little tri and the center console in the lift on our dock. Quiet as can be with the wind now coming off the land. I can hear the wind howling through the outriggers at the sportfishing marina about a half mile across the bayou. They are more exposed to the northerly winds and you can also hear the roar of the surf just across the narrow strip of sand which separates our bayou from the Gulf. East is the Beast and the West is the Best has never proven to be more true that this storm, at least for us. I'll sleep well but have to get up early to go check on a 22' Trinidadian skiff that is in a friends boat lift on the northern shore of our peninsula which will be exposed to the expected 40 knot winds only a mile away. I'll drop by the beach access just across the way on the beach and try and get some photos to share. The side/offshore wind with 20' 12 sec swells radiating out from Michael only 250 miles away is a rare occurrance on the Gulf. Should be epic surf but the alongshore current headed west will be a bitch. Watching Tropical Tidbits and other sites indicate that the minimum pressure continues to drop perhaps to the low 940's which would probably push it to a Cat 4 before coming ashore down near Port St Joe. That also seems to be contracting the wind field which may explain some of the moderating winds here. It is sobering to think that 30 years ago we wouldn't even have a clue that such a dangerous storm was about to raise hell, sort of like Camille did so many years ago with such staggering losses. We did have a nice 'sailors delight' red sky sunset.

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Good luck! Be safe. Boats are replaceable.

Curse the models as I sometimes do, it is amazing how far wx forecasting has come in the last 30 years.

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Good luck down there. Not looking good this morning. 

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40 minutes ago, Sean said:

Good luck down there. Not looking good this morning. 

Depends where you are. I have family and business interests in and around Panama City. I'd have already run away if I lived in that area.

Meanwhile, the SE quadrant's outer bands are brushing by my area today. Between bands, 20 knots with higher gusts = good entertainment for me.

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16 hours ago, Rasputin22 said:

I've seen where corrugated roofing metal can get well into the trunk of a coconut palm during a hurricane. There was a piece in one of the palms on the horseshoe court at SKINNY LEGS in Coral Bay St John that they trimmed the metal back to about an inch proud of the tree trunk as an example. It had penetrated about 3 or 4 inches into the trunk and there was about a foot across where it cut into the wood. Don't have a photo of that but look at this example!

When roofing tin hits a coconut tree at 170mph amazing things happen

We had a friend on Carriacou who was decapitated by a piece of corrugated roof during Hurricane Ivan. Very sad. A healthy young guy just going out to check to make sure his cows were OK... (They were)

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We were suppose to leave on this Sunday to go to St. Joseph Peninsula, just east of Panama City where we rented a cabin for the week at the State Park located there. Everything I'm seeing puts the worst of the winds and surge right there. The whole 15 mile long spit is at most 12-13 feet above MSL and the 9-14ft surge will surely devastate everything there and at Cape San Blas. 

St. Joe Peninsula has been trying to become an island for a long time. Highway 30E is the lone access to this lovely spit of land and it's basically already in the ocean, protected by a bit of riprap for a short distance. They were supposed to start a beach renourishment project this week to further protect the road, too late. My fear is that road and it's water and sewer lines will disappear later today and it will be a year or more before we'll be able to enjoy one the real treasures of the FL gulf coast. 

https://www.google.com/maps/embed?pb=!1m14!1m12!1m3!1d6066.554918373028!2d-85.36264713278689!3d29.67875554967669!2m3!1f0!2f0!3f0!3m2!1i1024!2i768!4f13.1!5e1!3m2!1sen!2sus!4v1539187147172

 

 

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Moon,

     We had a great stay at the Cape San Blas Inn a few years ago. May not be there after today.

Image result for Cape San Blas Inn

Web site is down, must host it themselves!

Image result for Cape San Blas Inn

 

On a more serious note, 18 Waffle House restaurants in the Panhandle are close today! The end of Redneck civilization must be near...

 

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Looks grim on the RADAR.

Just for the record the HWRF prediction was almost exactly correct from before the LLC had even formed. See post 3. The GFS was good. The EC was comparatively poor on track, timing and intensity.

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UPDATE-150 sustained. G 180. 923MB. Still increasing...15-30 minutes to landfall. Catastrophic.

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Haven't heard anything about mobilizing resources yet.  Is this a post Katrina thing that is actually happening , just not newsworthy?

FEMA gala dinner plans cancelled?

I would expect that the national guard would be on notice, FEMA gearing up and all sorts of busy prepping.

 

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4 minutes ago, DryArmour said:

UPDATE-150 sustained. G 180. 923MB. Still increasing...15-30 minutes to landfall. Catastrophic.

This thing is a slow moving, nuclear bomb.

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46 minutes ago, MisterMoon said:

We were suppose to leave on this Sunday to go to St. Joseph Peninsula, just east of Panama City where we rented a cabin for the week at the State Park located there. Everything I'm seeing puts the worst of the winds and surge right there. The whole 15 mile long spit is at most 12-13 feet above MSL and the 9-14ft surge will surely devastate everything there and at Cape San Blas. 

St. Joe Peninsula has been trying to become an island for a long time. Highway 30E is the lone access to this lovely spit of land and it's basically already in the ocean, protected by a bit of riprap for a short distance. They were supposed to start a beach renourishment project this week to further protect the road, too late. My fear is that road and it's water and sewer lines will disappear later today and it will be a year or more before we'll be able to enjoy one the real treasures of the FL gulf coast. 

https://www.google.com/maps/embed?pb=!1m14!1m12!1m3!1d6066.554918373028!2d-85.36264713278689!3d29.67875554967669!2m3!1f0!2f0!3f0!3m2!1i1024!2i768!4f13.1!5e1!3m2!1sen!2sus!4v1539187147172

 

 

I would expect catastrophic damage to just about all infrastructure in that area.

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4 minutes ago, Ajax said:

This thing is a slow moving, nuclear bomb.

Effectively a 60 mile wide F3-F4 tornado. Biblical.

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48 minutes ago, Rasputin22 said:

Moon,

     We had a great stay at the Cape San Blas Inn a few years ago. May not be there after today.

Image result for Cape San Blas Inn

Web site is down, must host it themselves!

Image result for Cape San Blas Inn

 

On a more serious note, 18 Waffle House restaurants in the Panhandle are close today! The end of Redneck civilization must be near...

 

 

it's always fun to make fun of awful waffle, but read up on what their restaurant chain had done in the history of natual disasters around the country, very admirable..

also heard there was a waffle house rating for storms..   if the waffle houses are closing, you need to get the hell out...

 

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21 hours ago, d'ranger said:

FIFY.   

Rasputin yes I know they were spoofing.  The vid you posted is hilarious. I was around when this started in 61 when Dan Rather directed the TV coverage including on the scene in Galveston. Of course the storm came ashore 90 miles down the coast.  The danger is people watch this and think hey it's not that bad, I know a number of guys who rode it out on their sailboat, none of would ever do it again.  If lines broke in hurricane winds not possible to do much more than kiss your ass goodbye. 

Water and trees will kill.   Meanwhile, just like all those reality shows there is a guy standing with a camera during all of this.  My better half has always watched coverage when storms have hit us and is just ridiculous.  Again, hoping everyone is out of harm's way for Michael. 

i was watching one of those weather shows one day , weather guy standing out in really bad weather,  turns out he lived down the street from me during hs, was our newspaper boy,  then turned weatherman..

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Family friend just moved to Panama City and refused to leave because "hurricane is not a big deal" :o

Too much experience with Maryland hurricanes that cross land on the way here and drop to Cat 1 every time.

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2 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Family friend just moved to Panama City and refused to leave because "hurricane is not a big deal" :o

Too much experience with Maryland hurricanes that cross land on the way here and drop to Cat 1 every time.

Sorry to hear that.  That may be a fatal decision...

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43 minutes ago, DryArmour said:

UPDATE-150 sustained. G 180. 923MB. Still increasing...15-30 minutes to landfall. Catastrophic.

F'ing hell.

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6 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Family friend just moved to Panama City and refused to leave because "hurricane is not a big deal" :o

Too much experience with Maryland hurricanes that cross land on the way here and drop to Cat 1 every time.

This one is a big deal. The storm is moving fast and Panama City is in the "navigable" sector so that may mitigate things a bit for your friend... Talking shades of horrific.

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“if Michael makes landfall as a Category 4 storm, as expected, it will be the strongest hurricane to ever come ashore along the Florida Panhandle in records dating to 1851, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, tropical scientist at Colorado State University. In fact, Florida's entire Gulf Coast north of Punta Gorda has never recorded a Category 4-plus hurricane landfall.” —TWC

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The fact that #huricaneMichael is the trend on twitter makes me believe that area needed help long before the hurricane. So if you think they evacuated, they probably didn't.

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The anemometer at Tyndall AFB blew away at 130 kts. Just don't make those things like they used to. The one on the old Navy Hospital in Culebra during Hugo blew up at 185!

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12 minutes ago, Rasputin22 said:

The anemometer at Tyndall AFB blew away at 130 kts. Just don't make those things like they used to. The one on the old Navy Hospital in Culebra during Hugo blew up at 185!

Fortunately it missed large population centers, we be interesting to see ground zero....biggest impacts will probably be in the path it carves inland trees falling on property and power outages over a very large area. That said this storm illustrates that if you are not exposed to surge threats and are not hit by the eye of any hurricane every incremental 10 miles away from the center the affects from hurricane force winds decrease dramatically and if you are in a decent structure staying at home is doable depending on your personal strengths. Panama City as an example in this case

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Mexico Beach is wiped out, from the looks of the surprising number of videos coming from there. Also plenty of footage from PC but nothing like MB. Google ‘Mexico beach video’ 

 

it’s telling that these people have no experience with >Cat 3 hurricanes from the number who apparently stayed. G. Zeus. 

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The age old adage. "It's not THAT the wind is blowing, it's WHAT the wind is blowing"

The 2x4 through the front windscreen of a parked car in the ABC live stream posted above is a good indication of that

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I stand corrected, the Tyndall AFB anemometer failed at 130 MPH. No wonder those flyboys can't do their job in bad weather.

DpKlgHRUYAEYO0X.jpg

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Population of MB is 1200 ... doubt many stayed... I think it is all storm surge in the video and that is normally land and not canal or water frontage 

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A friend who lives in MB was planning a hurricane party two days ago. Yesterday she pulled up and went to Orlando. Looks like she made the right choice. 

 

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