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Shortforbob

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https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/09/politics/women-trump-kavanaugh-midterms/index.html

Under the shadow of Trump, the shift among women away from the GOP is stark.
That tilt toward Democrats is stunning when compared against the long-term trend of how white women with college degrees voted in House races.
Exit polling from 1980 to 2016 shows that the best that Democrats have ever done with that group is 53% (twice in 2006 and in 1990).
One of the most prescient observations about the GOP's troubles with women came earlier this year from former White House strategist Steve Bannon who told Vanity Fair's Gabriel Sherman that "the Republican college-educated woman is done. ... Trump triggers them."
Countless national polls this year have traced how female support for Republicans tumbled off a cliff after Trump won the White House in 2016. Even before the Kavanaugh nomination became the central focus in Washington, the yawning gender gap was evident.
Sixty percent of women likely voters polled by CNN recently said they were leaning toward the Democratic candidate in their congressional race, compared with 36% who said they were more likely to support the Republican. (Among men, 49% were leaning Republican, while 44% were leaning Democrat).
Trump was a negative driving force behind those numbers: 60% of women voters said they were more likely to vote for a congressional candidate who opposes Trump (compared with 30% who said they'd favor a candidate who supports Trump).
While Trump is clearly repelling many college-educated female voters, UCLA political science professor Lynn Vavreck, notes that antipathy toward the President overlays two longer-term trends that spell trouble for Republicans.
"White women are moving away from the Republican Party, that's been happening. And white college-educated people are moving away," said Vavreck, a co-author of "Identity Crisis," a new book about the 2016 election.
"People have created this character out of college-educated women, because they seem to be the leading indicator of this decline for the Republican Party," Vavreck said. "But the story is about white college-educated people and white women."
Still, Trump's role as a driving force in Republican problems at the polls has been evident in interviews over the last year. Many Democratic women were immediately activated by the GOP vote against Obamacare shortly after Trump took office.
First-time female activists protested outside the offices of conservative members of Congress like Darrell Issa, the congressman representing parts of Orange and San Diego counties who ultimately announced he would retire and leave an open seat in California's 49th district (where the Democratic candidate is now leading, according to the NYT Upshot/Siena College poll).
In interviews late last year, many moderate or independent women who supported Trump — or skipped the presidential line of the ballot altogether in 2016 — said they were exasperated with the President's tweets and the atmosphere of chaos he sows within his administration.
This year, the mood notably soured on Republicans at various inflection points. Some women were unnerved by Trump's standoff with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un of North Korea. Then this summer, alarm seemed to peak among women who had a visceral response to children being separated from their parents at the border as a result of the Trump administration's immigration policies.
Donna Oberg, a 67-year-old retired secretary from Aurora, Colorado, who is an independent, said she got goosebumps when she heard the recordings of young children crying after being separated from their parents.
"He just thinks he can bully everybody," Oberg said of Trump in an interview earlier this summer in Colorado-6, a closely divided district in the suburbs of Denver. Of Republicans, she added: "I think they are afraid of him. There's got to be a better way."
(In a telling move, the Republican super PAC known as the Congressional Leadership Fund recently pulled out of Colorado-6 where they had intended to help GOP Incumbent Mike Coffman in his race against Democratic newcomer Jason Crow).
In Utah-4, where Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams is challenging Republican Congresswoman Mia Love, 72-year-old independent voter Loraina Anderson said she was leaning away from Love for similar reasons, even though Love has openly criticized Trump's immigration rhetoric and some of his policies.
"I'm just frustrated, not so much with her, but with Trump," Anderson said in an interview this summer after McAdams showed up at her door while canvassing undecided voters.
"It's just devastating, just him as a person. The lies," Anderson said of the President. "The kids being separated. I don't quite understand why he's so into Un and (Russian Leader Vladimir) Putin. To me they are horrible men, they torture and do this and that. In my opinion, he wants to become a dictator. He's following in their footsteps if you ask me."
Trump's cavalier attitude during the fight over Kavanaugh's nomination has become the latest — but perhaps most powerful — rallying cry for women determined to rebuke to his agenda at the polls in November.
Strategists from both sides say the winners in November will be determined by which party has the better turnout game. What's clear is that Democrats have a lot of female energy on their side.
Pausing outside Hill's headquarters after picking up her 14-year-old daughter Emma, who attended the discussion on sexual assault, 41-year-old Sara Tisdell described the Kavanaugh debate as "scary" and said she was discouraged watching "our President stoop to the lowest common denominator constantly, and it gets glossed over somehow."
"When I was her age, I didn't have the same fears that we were drifting backwards," said Tisdell, a Democrat who owns a local brewery. "I think we have an opportunity for change. We have an opportunity to continue on a path of moving forward, as opposed to regressing backward as a society."
Tisdell had been texting her sisters from the parking lot about Katie Hill, and how she'd organized the closed-press event on sexual assault. She doesn't plan to help canvass, but Emma (who can't yet vote) is organizing her friends from Valencia High School to knock on doors for Hill.
"It's easy to be comfortable as a white person in suburbia," Tisdell said. "We really blew it collectively as a group in the previous election," she added, referring to women. "Nobody said anything and everybody just kind of went along. ... I hope this time people get out and vote."

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Won't make any difference who they lean towards unless they actually get out & vote.

FKT

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30 minutes ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

Won't make any difference who they lean towards unless they actually get out & vote.

FKT

It will if republican women who usually vote stay home.

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42 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

It will if republican women who usually vote stay home.

OK, I'll give you that one.

FKT

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