blunderfull

Tesla Hacks / Rich Rebuilds

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47 minutes ago, Windward said:

That cost has to come waaay down.

Yea, but how did EVWest get Tesla to sell OEM drivers?

I’m interested to see further sailboat apps for solar/powerwalls.  Thinking of Rich Wilson & the Vendee guys.

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1 hour ago, Windward said:

That cost has to come waaay down.

Yea, somewhere between the DIY guys and the full-on shops like EVWest there will come kits you can drop in your daily rider, scaled down power/price for larger consumer base.

All you really need’s a lift and one guy with chops.  We got four lifts at the Workshop and the guys are churning eProjects out.  Most recently an eTrike (welded steel from scratch) for a Burning Man ride.  Was cool!

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did the power source for Banksy's shredded artwork last from the build in 2006 to the auction in 2018?

Is that actually impressive?

i'd have thought that there are not many batteries that would hold their charge for 12 years, or am i talking bollox?

 

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I'd like to see a solid year of execution and focus out of Tesla before new projects are kicked off. The model parade isn't helping them. 

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On 10/25/2018 at 3:09 PM, IStream said:

I'd like to see a solid year of execution and focus out of Tesla before new projects are kicked off. The model parade isn't helping them. 

You're right, and what they're doing is dangerous is that the biggest threat of any company tends to come from within.

But if they don't see it that way, and if instead they see their biggest threat as eventual competition from GM, Nissan and Hyundai, then they might be doing the right thing ... if they really can repurpose the guts of their EV and just slap interchangeable bodies on them, from pickup trucks, to luxury cards, to midsize sedans to racecars, then that could leave the big automakers to sit on their hands a bit before they invest much into tooling to see what Tesla is going to do, so they can take advantage of Tesla's mistakes.

And Tesla will see some difficulty, some major failures perhaps, because they're bringing an insanely complicated set of products to market. But if the failures are manageable, then when the dust settles and the other makers are ready to get into the business, they might then find it impossible to compete with Tesla's deep vertical integration in their battery business, that's when they stick Tesla batteries and management into their vehicles.

And that might be exactly what Musk wants, to build a boutique/showcase vehicle company, and then supply all of the vehicles industry with his batteries.

The danger here is if there is an end-run around Tesla's batteries. If someone is able to manufacture a a better battery, or integrated capacitor arrays, then the world won't need Tesla's batteries. My money is on integrated capacitor arrays that convert the exponential voltage discharge of capacitors to a sawtooth approximation of the constant-voltage output of batteries. That would solve a lot of lifetime and phase-change problems of batteries. It could even use the same form factor as a old-fashioned chemical battery.

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3 hours ago, mikewof said:

You're right, and what they're doing is dangerous is that the biggest threat of any company tends to come from within.

But if they don't see it that way, and if instead they see their biggest threat as eventual competition from GM, Nissan and Hyundai, then they might be doing the right thing ... if they really can repurpose the guts of their EV and just slap interchangeable bodies on them, from pickup trucks, to luxury cards, to midsize sedans to racecars, then that could leave the big automakers to sit on their hands a bit before they invest much into tooling to see what Tesla is going to do, so they can take advantage of Tesla's mistakes.

And Tesla will see some difficulty, some major failures perhaps, because they're bringing an insanely complicated set of products to market. But if the failures are manageable, then when the dust settles and the other makers are ready to get into the business, they might then find it impossible to compete with Tesla's deep vertical integration in their battery business, that's when they stick Tesla batteries and management into their vehicles.

And that might be exactly what Musk wants, to build a boutique/showcase vehicle company, and then supply all of the vehicles industry with his batteries.

The danger here is if there is an end-run around Tesla's batteries. If someone is able to manufacture a a better battery, or integrated capacitor arrays, then the world won't need Tesla's batteries. My money is on integrated capacitor arrays that convert the exponential voltage discharge of capacitors to a sawtooth approximation of the constant-voltage output of batteries. That would solve a lot of lifetime and phase-change problems of batteries. It could even use the same form factor as a old-fashioned chemical battery.

none of that has ever bothered iFone production/sales

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They will eventually be sold for the data. I think they do not actually make the car batteries cells as opposed to the Powerwall/Pack units.

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While its good to see them succeed and make good jobs be a realist there in a abandoned GM/Toyota facility making 1/2 there production in a tent outside with no reasonable way out of the problem

There labor force is more than double GM/Toyota to build a fraction of the cars previously built there and there ability to support service and spares on the existing cars sucks at best Just look at the train wreck in Norway with cars waiting months for parts 

Most of these problems our Elon self inflicted by refusing to embrace the parts of the auto industry that do work because you might not like what they produce but they sure as hell do it in much less time with much better build quality 

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20 hours ago, DA-WOODY said:

none of that has ever bothered iFone production/sales

The iPhone is a really basic, commodity item that happens to have an incredibly advanced operating system running inside of it. Apple can spend billions developing that operating system, but they can essentially jam it into an unlimited number of those really basic, commodity phones.

It's much harder to build big thing like cars than phones and computers because you have to manage things like vast metal stamping machines, even a weird little stainless connector that they might use for a screen or a wiring harness might have five different manufacturing steps. A phone though ... meh, you integrate the chip manufacture using existing deposition and fabrication equipment, add in whatever the state-of-the-art COTS things like sensors or screens happen to be the flavor of the day, and Bobs yer uncle.

But with those Teslas, there isn't an existing industry to make a lot of that stuff, they can't go COTS and expect to maintain the level of performance and quality that all those Tesla drivers want. 

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2 hours ago, tommays said:

While its good to see them succeed and make good jobs be a realist there in a abandoned GM/Toyota facility making 1/2 there production in a tent outside with no reasonable way out of the problem

There labor force is more than double GM/Toyota to build a fraction of the cars previously built there and there ability to support service and spares on the existing cars sucks at best Just look at the train wreck in Norway with cars waiting months for parts 

Most of these problems our Elon self inflicted by refusing to embrace the parts of the auto industry that do work because you might not like what they produce but they sure as hell do it in much less time with much better build quality 

He did that for the first Teslas though. Our PA friend Ed used to have one of those early Teslas, basically made out of a Lotus. It wasn't a reliable build because the company was still dealing with battery difficulties.

There is no way to minimize what Musk has done, he built a major car company nearly out of nothing in about ten years. It's mind-blowing, I've never seen anything like it, except for the industries that were built in wartime and cold-war because fear was driving them. And this is just the opening salvo for Musk; a car company, a rocket company, that boring company, a battery manufacturer ... we can only guess what's next. There has never been any entrepreneur like this in the history of industry, and I can't see how there ever will be another. The sports analogy would be one athlete who is better than Gretzky, LeBron and Shoeless Joe, Lionel Messi, and Aaron Rogers all at the same.

I'm not even sure if Musk is human ... it would surprise me less if it turns out that he is from the future and was some schmuck who cleaned the floors in a government lab and accidentally got transported back 500 years to us in a time machine.

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2 hours ago, mikewof said:

He did that for the first Teslas though. Our PA friend Ed used to have one of those early Teslas, basically made out of a Lotus. It wasn't a reliable build because the company was still dealing with battery difficulties.

There is no way to minimize what Musk has done, he built a major car company nearly out of nothing in about ten years. It's mind-blowing, I've never seen anything like it, except for the industries that were built in wartime and cold-war because fear was driving them. And this is just the opening salvo for Musk; a car company, a rocket company, that boring company, a battery manufacturer ... we can only guess what's next. There has never been any entrepreneur like this in the history of industry, and I can't see how there ever will be another. The sports analogy would be one athlete who is better than Gretzky, LeBron and Shoeless Joe, Lionel Messi, and Aaron Rogers all at the same.

I'm not even sure if Musk is human ... it would surprise me less if it turns out that he is from the future and was some schmuck who cleaned the floors in a government lab and accidentally got transported back 500 years to us in a time machine.

+1

With over 40% of Teslas sold being in Cali I think we around here take for granted how unique Musk is and, how embedded that new culture is on the West Coast.

 

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On 11/8/2018 at 4:31 PM, blunderfull said:

Disruptive ‘49 Mercury with Ludicrous

Balls out.

 

Holy Crap!!  I had no idea people were building stuff like that!!  AMAZING!!

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On 10/28/2018 at 9:00 AM, tommays said:

While its good to see them succeed and make good jobs be a realist there in a abandoned GM/Toyota facility making 1/2 there production in a tent outside with no reasonable way out of the problem

There labor force is more than double GM/Toyota to build a fraction of the cars previously built there and there ability to support service and spares on the existing cars sucks at best Just look at the train wreck in Norway with cars waiting months for parts 

Most of these problems our Elon self inflicted by refusing to embrace the parts of the auto industry that do work because you might not like what they produce but they sure as hell do it in much less time with much better build quality 

Musk talks big, he was going to set the auto world on fire and show the established OEMs how to make cars. But despite the broken promises, build issues, quality issues, service delays, and bizarre behavior there are still die hard fan boys that think he walks on water. 

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On 11/18/2018 at 5:47 PM, barleymalt said:

Musk talks big, he was going to set the auto world on fire and show the established OEMs how to make cars. But despite the broken promises, build issues, quality issues, service delays, and bizarre behavior there are still die hard fan boys that think he walks on water. 

Regardless the delays and the problems, Musk has been the most disruptive force in the auto industry in 50 years.

Discounting Tesla's accomplishments due to the difficulties you mention is like suggesting Moon missions were a failure because of Apollo 13.

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On 11/8/2018 at 2:31 PM, blunderfull said:

Disruptive ‘49 Mercury with Ludicrous

Balls out.

Incredible build. Like something out of Mister X!

716353.jpg

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On 11/18/2018 at 4:47 PM, barleymalt said:

Musk talks big, he was going to set the auto world on fire and show the established OEMs how to make cars. But despite the broken promises, build issues, quality issues, service delays, and bizarre behavior there are still die hard fan boys that think he walks on water. 

 

2 hours ago, mikewof said:

Regardless the delays and the problems, Musk has been the most disruptive force in the auto industry in 50 years.

Discounting Tesla's accomplishments due to the difficulties you mention is like suggesting Moon missions were a failure because of Apollo 13.

Musk = Doug Lord of Auto World

 

 

 

coat/hat running for exit :o:o:lol:

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Reading comments on that Tesla batt fire are usefull to anyone new to charging Li-Ion batts at home.  Careful how/where you do it.

Couple years ago a particular Li-Ion MTB trail lite was sold around here.  Big lite - 1200 lumens.  Used to charge it on my desk.  Battery was a heavy block the size of two D batts.  Stories started coming in on MTB forums about “fires”, malfunctioning charger etc.   Bottom line:  American distributor halted sales, independent lab tested and found  defective wiring/design in charger which led to overcharging and fire risk.   

Prior to fire reports local scuttlebut advised charging outside the house in an ammo can - just in case.  Subsequently, fire reports started coming in with one stating that batt went off like blowtorch and burned hole thru wall.

Distributor had charger redesigned and swapped out or refunded $$.   I took the money.

Distributor closed business shortly thereafter.

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Starlink revenue projections are pretty impressive.  In addition to the broadband customer base they should attract, theyre also trying to insure that all those “4-wheel Tesla computers” have 24/7 service support/updates. No small feat to pull off.

When Mercedes ever gets their  new EQ ramped up (2019 -late?) then we’ll see how fast you can build/bluff your way into the EV market without built-out charging and support systems.

  I just don’t see much competition for Tesla for another 5-10 years. The Model 3 is a game changer and Teslas (all models) now outsell Mercedes in the USA.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/jeanbaptiste/2018/10/09/tesla-outsells-mercedes-benz-in-america-and-bmw-is-next/amp/

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11 hours ago, blunderfull said:

Starlink revenue projections are pretty impressive.  In addition to the broadband customer base they should attract, theyre also trying to insure that all those “4-wheel Tesla computers” have 24/7 service support/updates. No small feat to pull off.

When Mercedes ever gets their  new EQ ramped up (2019 -late?) then we’ll see how fast you can build/bluff your way into the EV market without built-out charging and support systems.

  I just don’t see much competition for Tesla for another 5-10 years. The Model 3 is a game changer and Teslas (all models) now outsell Mercedes in the USA.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/jeanbaptiste/2018/10/09/tesla-outsells-mercedes-benz-in-america-and-bmw-is-next/amp/

You can have great products and tons of sales but you still gotta make money. The days of endless capital infusions are over for Tesla.

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4 minutes ago, IStream said:

You can have great products and tons of sales but you still gotta make money. The days of endless capital infusions are over for Tesla.

And the days of positive cash flow are back.  ( ck that cash flow vid posted earlier)

With the demand for Model 3’s growing they’re ready to move into a whole other level.  The other competitors are still flailing away.

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How many quarters in a row? A quarter or two of positive cash flow can be engineered without much difficulty. It's much harder to achieve year-over-year cash flow positivity and profitability. Don't get me wrong, I want to see Tesla succeed, but that doesn't mean they aren't playing games with the numbers at the moment.

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1 hour ago, IStream said:

How many quarters in a row? A quarter or two of positive cash flow can be engineered without much difficulty. It's much harder to achieve year-over-year cash flow positivity and profitability. Don't get me wrong, I want to see Tesla succeed, but that doesn't mean they aren't playing games with the numbers at the moment.

The charts shown indicate that with each of their models there are high CapEx /lower net profit qtrs followed by lower CapEx/ higher profit as the model scales up & moves into the economy.   As they build-out the lines the tightening of the build process then lowers costs with the factory , parts and labor.  

Tesla is vertically integrated, they can control much of what they need to manufacture efficiently and, not insignificantly, return the highest profit margin on each vehicle of all the major manufacturers. That’s a big win for them and it will only improve as they tweak their systems.

Of course if the world economy hits a recession then it’s a rush by all big car companies to downsize and hold on.

I think Tesla grows and weathers all storms.

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Fossil Fool

Couple months ago Lutz predicts GM to roll out “20 EV” models & Tesla to vaporize.

 GM since then has cancelled EV production and Tesla surging ahead.  

Lutz for Secretary of Energy.  Fire up those coal plants.

 

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Jehu steps up and pre-orders a Rivian.  First person I know to take the leap for what looks to be the first Super EV Pick-Up.  Built by 2020.  

Good move if you have the cash for a $100k + truck.  

 

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Local company stepping out a bit.  

With the hordes of tricked-out Sprinters around here I think they’re going to make it. 

The 400 mile range gets you to Mammoth, Death Valley and all the rest.   Dream touring ride for the Sierras.   Rentals should go off the charts.

EV mindset, thanks to Tesla, keeps rolling.

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It would be great to see him succeed   The Auto Industry needs an enema now and then.   Do I own one ?   No.  

For a Car - to tow my dinghy, and do other dumb stuff,  I have an '06 Jetta TDI,  w/150,000 mi, 5-speed, running bioDiesel   (you could say I'm a bit of an Analog type of person)   I mention this only because I'm certainly looking toward replacement -  an electric alternative is tempting in some respects,  and here on Oahu you NEVER drive more than 200 miles in a day,  so "range anxiety" is pretty much a non-issue for anything in typical personal use.

Sure would be nice to have a car that never sat in a gas station line because it could be charged while parked for the night,  or enjoy the greatly reduced maintenance that modern tech has the potential to offer - also the possibilities to upgrade systems on existing platforms is pretty interesting. 

A good friend & business associate has had 2 Nissan Leafs (Leaves ?) and his daily drive is about 80 miles r/t with some side-trips and he's made it work.  Had a Model 3 on order but took the deposit back when the only ones offered were the up-market model - so he just got ANOTHER Leaf (his 3rd) - the newly-released one.

He says it's even better and it drives itself about 80 percent of the time on his highway drone - hands-free   -and he loves it.   (as a motorcyclist,  I'm conflicted,  but doubt it could be WORSE than some of the shit drivers pull).  

Good to have competition - I keep expecting Benz or Lexus to drop a bomb on him with something wildly better, but so far... not so much.

I've driven the first-gen Tesla roadster ( woo-hoo! ) and a couple Leaves (Leafs?) but not the new one, or the S or X  (ridden in both) - they all seem like regular cars (mostly) as modern cars have gotten so smooth - and they all had plenty of power.  I didn't care much for the Volt though (clunky !) . Now it's all about range,  reliability and price.   And choices.   Choices are nice.

PS:    Man,  has Nissan missed the freakin' bus or what ?   I understand the economy of only making one kinda Leaf but if they'd have offered a sporty version (make it look like a 240Z, fer instance) they'd have sold a shit-ton of 'em I'd bet - you know,  as a "2nd car" in addition to the Family Truckster. 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Great Red Shark said:

It would be great to see him succeed   The Auto Industry needs an enema now and then.   Do I own one ?   No.  

For a Car - to tow my dinghy, and do other dumb stuff,  I have an '06 Jetta TDI,  w/150,000 mi, 5-speed, running bioDiesel   (you could say I'm a bit of an Analog type of person)   I mention this only because I'm certainly looking toward replacement -  an electric alternative is tempting in some respects,  and here on Oahu you NEVER drive more than 200 miles in a day,  so "range anxiety" is pretty much a non-issue for anything in typical personal use.

Sure would be nice to have a car that never sat in a gas station line because it could be charged while parked for the night,  or enjoy the greatly reduced maintenance that modern tech has the potential to offer - also the possibilities to upgrade systems on existing platforms is pretty interesting. 

A good friend & business associate has had 2 Nissan Leafs (Leaves ?) and his daily drive is about 80 miles r/t with some side-trips and he's made it work.  Had a Model 3 on order but took the deposit back when the only ones offered were the up-market model - so he just got ANOTHER Leaf (his 3rd) - the newly-released one.

He says it's even better and it drives itself about 80 percent of the time on his highway drone - hands-free   -and he loves it.   (as a motorcyclist,  I'm conflicted,  but doubt it could be WORSE than some of the shit drivers pull).  

Good to have competition - I keep expecting Benz or Lexus to drop a bomb on him with something wildly better, but so far... not so much.

I've driven the first-gen Tesla roadster ( woo-hoo! ) and a couple Leaves (Leafs?) but not the new one, or the S or X  (ridden in both) - they all seem like regular cars (mostly) as modern cars have gotten so smooth - and they all had plenty of power.  I didn't care much for the Volt though (clunky !) . Now it's all about range,  reliability and price.   And choices.   Choices are nice.

PS:    Man,  has Nissan missed the freakin' bus or what ?   I understand the economy of only making one kinda Leaf but if they'd have offered a sporty version (make it look like a 240Z, fer instance) they'd have sold a shit-ton of 'em I'd bet - you know,  as a "2nd car" in addition to the Family Truckster. 

 

 

 

 

Like the ideas of Rivian.  In addition to their own vehicles, they claim they’ll supply their “skateboard” platform (batts/drive units) and you build out the body.

Nissan and others might be waiting for more build out of the charge systems?   Out here Edison made some noise about their plans but not seeing that yet.

 Either way I think Tesla builds their infrastructure and will kick the others into a Supercharger frenzy.   

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Magnum Opus

 

It’s like....’what?!    Me get my hands dirty?’

Anyone who doubts that the Auto Industry is a major PITA to deal with should follow this 3 month odyssey of our Hero Rich & the used Model X.

Remember he slapped down a $2500. deposit at the start.

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Hard the Fuck enough to get LED Turn Signal Bulbs to work on my CANBUS light system(s)

Fuck fixing a 4 door iFone

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