yl75

Spindrift 2 Jules Verne 2018

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^^^

Yep, they are going to get most likely an amazing time to the equator; but after that, it is going to get really tricky to get that first low pressure system coming off Uruguay, no? It seems to my VERY INexperienced eye that they would need to do about 750 miles per day for 3 days to catch it… What do you think?

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They are 3000 nm from the start after 4 days, that's precisely 750 per day ...

 

ps.: Which does not add up with the "bilan du jour" in fralo's pages.

ps2.: The 3K must be sailed distance even if it says from the start in Spindrift's web., real distance is less than 2800.

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5 hours ago, semelis said:

They are 3000 nm from the start after 4 days, that's precisely 750 per day ...

 

ps.: Which does not add up with the "bilan du jour" in fralo's pages.

ps2.: The 3K must be sailed distance even if it says from the start in Spindrift's web., real distance is less than 2800.

Sorry for my English ... made in Google translation ...

On the map, if you click on the round of end of day, a small window appears and gives the results of the day. The total of the first 4 days is 2725.30 nm.
If you draw a straight line from Ouessant to the round of the 4th day, the result is 2530 mn. This straight line practically follows the trajectory of Spindrift 2.

I think it's coherent.

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Yes, you are right.

The question is where the 3223 nm that appear at the right of the map come from. Actual distance sailed ?

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5 minutes ago, semelis said:

Yes, you are right.

The question is where the 3223 nm that appear at the right of the map come from. Actual distance sailed ?

This is indeed a good question.
In previous attempts, a table of positions, hour by hour and often less, was available.
This year, there is nothing.

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About to enter the doldrums, still charging at 31 knots, let's hope for no less than 10 knots, which to them will feel like standing still!

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With 15 kn for the next 16 hours they could break the record to the Equator and be a solid day ahead of IDEC's ghost.

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1 hour ago, blunderfull said:

Definitive intel on what those white bags are?

I don't understand the confusion.  They are clearly a larger French adoption of the greatest Australian invention of all time, the Goon Sack.

Primarily designed as a light weight travel cushion for racing boats, back packers and the homeless, the Goon sack has found wide spreed use as a way to store barely palatable wine made from second and third pressings of C grade grapes. 

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3 hours ago, blunderfull said:

Definitive intel on what those white bags are?

Most probably the bags are used for the same reason they cant the mast towards the dock. To keep the hull alongside the dock on the water and avoid it raising, with the potential for damage that would create.

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They don't even say whether they got a new record ushant equator, but  apparently they did by 30 mn or something

 

edit :

 

 

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23 hours faster than IDEC, and by the time the fifth day ends they will be further south than Joyon was in their 6th !

 

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And they are through the doldrums, almost did not notice it, now doing 18 knots. Amazing. But looking even trickier further south with high pressure belts across their path in two days.

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1 hour ago, TheDragon said:

And they are through the doldrums, almost did not notice it, now doing 18 knots. Amazing. But looking even trickier further south with high pressure belts across their path in two days.

Yes, but looks they might be able to round it with some pressure without going too much West, will be tricky though ..

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Way to go, Spindrift. 

I like that big beast.  Would love to see her set the record.  Would probably be the last archimedian record.

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Over the last 10 years, Spindrift, aka BP V, has been an impressive boat.  Records are made to broken, it is good to see this optimized attempt breaking its own record already.  As for Archimedes though, I expect the new Ultimes will go significantly faster, once they stop breaking.

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It would be cool to see Francois Gabarts solo record overlaid onto the tracker as well. I know it’s 2 different records entirely but wasn’t Gabart ahead of idec at times?

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3 hours ago, JL92S said:

It would be cool to see Francois Gabarts solo record overlaid onto the tracker as well. I know it’s 2 different records entirely but wasn’t Gabart ahead of idec at times?

Yes. At Good Hope :

Joyon = 12d 19h 28m

Gabart = 11d 20h 10m

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Yes Gabart holds the overall ushant Cape of good hope record

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IDEC's 6th day was out of the doldrums and not bad, the "distance ahead" should stop increasing at this rate now.

If Spindrift beats her own 2016's record to Cape of Good Hope by 2 hours as has done with the Equator's one, will be close to Gabart's.

 

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The next 24 to 48 hours will be interesting; according to windity; there will be a ridge accross their path that they will have to punch through.

Seeing their performance in the Doldrums though, might just be a walk in the park...

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I really believe that adding the little greenhouse to this boat has made her easier to push hard. A better rested and more energetic crew will outperform a tired, wet, cold one every time. 

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It's a gazebo.  Seriously though, I was thinking it would be really interesting to see the teams own proposed routing over the next two to three day on the map so we in the peanut gallery could learn more about how the pros interpret the meteorology. 

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Forecast for the next two days or so looks tricky, but it seems like regardless of how they play it, they're going to need to get to the South end of a large system in 3-4 days...  and it looks like they're going to have to go very far South to be on the downwind side of it.  It really seams to me that this is going to turn into a game of "how far South are you willing to go?".

Regarding the caddyshack covering the cockpit...  My sense is that the visual aversion is from seeing it from the aft quarter, where it just screams "windage"...  but...  I think the boat had a good-side aerodynamic cowling over the front of the cockpit anyway, right?  So is the whole gazebo under that cowling's height?  My first take on it was "how can they not have something more aerodynamic than that mess?", but now I'm thinking maybe we just haven't seen an angle that shows it looking reasonable.

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The shed

[

Merriam-Webster : shed

noun (2)

Definition of shed (Entry 3 of 4)

1a : a slight structure built for shelter or storage especially : a single-storied building with one or more sides unenclosed
b : a building that resembles a shed
]
looks practical to me.
 
Next 40 hours will be a bit tricky indeed, but I don't have access to all the weather forecasts out there. They seem rather confident on crossing that bridge.
If in 2 days they manage to be at around 34º S 19º W they will be doing fine. IMHO
 

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17 hours ago, JL92S said:

It would be cool to see Francois Gabarts solo record overlaid onto the tracker as well. I know it’s 2 different records entirely but wasn’t Gabart ahead of idec at times?

 

14 hours ago, Fralo said:

Yes. At Good Hope :

Joyon = 12d 19h 28m

Gabart = 11d 20h 10m

Fralo is being modest! He keeps a nice summary of the JV that answers the question JP92S asks.   The "Fralo pages" are very helpful for many such comparisons

http://fralo.info/jv01.html

It is in French, but even if that's  not your thing, the names and numbers don't change and our machines will translate the rest.

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If Windy is to be believed, a series of bridges across those high pressure bands are forming just in time for them to scoot across.

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6 hours ago, tama_manu said:

 

Fralo is being modest! He keeps a nice summary of the JV that answers the question JP92S asks.   The "Fralo pages" are very helpful for many such comparisons

http://fralo.info/jv01.html

It is in French, but even if that's  not your thing, the names and numbers don't change and our machines will translate the rest.

Thank you so much. 

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My comment of the day 8, which commits me only ...

" Things seem to be getting more complicated for Spindrift 2, in the next 48 hours, with the relatively tricky crossing of an anticyclonic zone, both in terms of wind strength and its orientation. The trimaran will have to pull widely in the west, up to longitude 35 ° W, to find an exit door towards the roaring 40th.

Due to the lack of precise information from the team, we must be content with an amateur routing, to take with very big tweezers, which gives a crossing of the Cape of Good Hope on January 29, 2019, at 12h YOU.
in a slightly longer time than Idec Sport. "

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15 hours ago, Your Mom said:

Forecast for the next two days or so looks tricky, but it seems like regardless of how they play it, they're going to need to get to the South end of a large system in 3-4 days...  and it looks like they're going to have to go very far South to be on the downwind side of it.  It really seams to me that this is going to turn into a game of "how far South are you willing to go?".

Regarding the caddyshack covering the cockpit...  My sense is that the visual aversion is from seeing it from the aft quarter, where it just screams "windage"...  but...  I think the boat had a good-side aerodynamic cowling over the front of the cockpit anyway, right?  So is the whole gazebo under that cowling's height?  My first take on it was "how can they not have something more aerodynamic than that mess?", but now I'm thinking maybe we just haven't seen an angle that shows it looking reasonable.

It really doesn't look as atrocious in person. It does hide behind the hard dodger.

https://imgur.com/a/KQi8B6c

https://imgur.com/a/ZotGBgf

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5 hours ago, Fralo said:

Crossing of the Cape of Good Hope on January 29, 2019, at 12h YOU. in a slightly longer time than Idec Sport. "

Update : the unofficial routing must be corrected according to the evolution of the weather : Good hope possible on January 29, 2019 at 6h UTC.

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They are getting lucky with this little bridge opening in front of them and they might just scoot through before it closes.

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This looks like a tough transition. I really hope they can make it ahead of that high pressure, and hook into the low forming of Uruguay. Does anyone have access to routing information like we had last year?

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Yann Guichard on Twitter : " Good morning! Still and always full South. Busy day before us with little or no wind ... We take advantage of these beautiful lights of the morning! "

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Uh oh, looks like the bridge they are on will fall out from under them. This could be a rough day.

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Looks to me like they'll be trying to do ~700-800 nm toward the Falklands in the next 36-48 hours.  Any other course would just be upwind while the system overtakes anyway.  Once they've achieve that, they should be able to hook into heavy winds from the West for a week or more.  They should get to Kerguelen and beyond very fast from there.

But they'll have to go pretty far South, and sail in some very heavy wind, without hitting ice or sinking, for that to work....

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29 minutes ago, Your Mom said:

Looks to me like they'll be trying to do ~700-800 nm toward the Falklands in the next 36-48 hours.  Any other course would just be upwind while the system overtakes anyway.  Once they've achieve that, they should be able to hook into heavy winds from the West for a week or more.  They should get to Kerguelen and beyond very fast from there.

But they'll have to go pretty far South, and sail in some very heavy wind, without hitting ice or sinking, for that to work....

Yep. No choice but to go further south. I think they're about to be passed.

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In the 2016-2017 record, Francis Joyon crossed Good Hope at latitude 45 ° S. I do not know what it is this year about the presence of ice in the area.

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It's a pity they don't want to go to Buenos Aires, they could catch the fast lane in that direction.

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VMG isn't the problem.  They just need to get South and then go hammer-down for 2 weeks.  This hurts, but they'll be fine until at least Kerguelen if the wind doesn't exceed their limits.  Then it becomes a matter of whether or not the forecast from there forward cooperates.

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Screenshot of Spindrift 2 routing for Good Hope. They will cross Good Hope at arround 50° S.

routing.png

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So they should have a quite more southern route than joyon, by the way I wonder if the speed of the low systems in the southern ocean is quite the same for all or not? And does the latitude at which they are has an influence on their speed? 

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19 minutes ago, yl75 said:

So they should have a quite more southern route than joyon, by the way I wonder if the speed of the low systems in the southern ocean is quite the same for all or not? And does the latitude at which they are has an influence on their speed? 

I don't think latitude  would influence boat speed but going further south does shorten the route. If I recall they can't go below 63 degrees south.

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I meant the speed of the low systems, not boat speed, joyon rode the same low system from before good hope to leuwin or a bit further, and they really had to fight to stay in front of it. 

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But according to windy, the one they should catch will die away after good hope (around Wednesday 30), so they will have a transition to manage in the Indian Ocean

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2 hours ago, semelis said:

 1j01h54m is not the time from now to Good Hope, is it ?

I think not because Spindrift is located 2500 nautical miles from Good Hope. It would be very very fast ...

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They are around the high and moving along nicely. Will soon go blasting past Jeanne Socrates on SV Nereida.

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By the way, looks to me that the forecasts has changed quite a bit since 1 or 2 days, now a very elongated front more than a round low

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They will go well south of Socrates, but she wonders how she might contact them, anybody know (perhaps even an email address for their base operations? I can't find anything on their website).

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47 minutes ago, semelis said:

Now begins the 10 days sprint by IDEC to New Zealand, half way around Antarctica.

In 2016-17, Francis Joyon's fantastic sprint started at the beginning of day 12, and ended at the end of day 20.

runjoyon.png

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41 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

Found an email address on their website, no idea how cooperative they will be!

They are not very cooperative. I have reported errors in times of passage on the map, including an error on their own record at the equator in 2019.
In an answer I was told that maybe it was interpolated, but nothing was changed.
The WSSRC does not do any interpolation. To calculate the time taken between a point A and a point B, it takes for base the last survey gps before point A, then the first survey gps after point B.

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Got breeze but maybe sea state limited for a while.  Interesting to see how hard they will push next few days. 

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2 hours ago, TheDragon said:

They will go well south of Socrates, but she wonders how she might contact them, anybody know (perhaps even an email address for their base operations? I can't find anything on their website).

Looks like Twitter works.

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They reply when you send a private (messenger) msg on their FB page

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Yes they will they will most probably beat Idec at the cape, the tricky part will be after around next Tuesday/Wednesday when their low will die down, could they be the first to catch the next one in front and not wait for the next one from the back ? doubt it will happen or is possible with this boat

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I was wondering a few days ago whther they would pull the pin and do a reset.

They are more than fully committed now. So as pointed out, they have an interesting challenge as to what will happen with this system - will the low forming below them break off distinctly from what it is connected to at the moment? How long can they stay in the Zone of good pressure gradient and flattish seas? Having a smooth runway is as or more important as windspeed/direction to these machines. 

The Idec run over that week was something special - so lots to play for - I would think that Spindrift have a playbook of how to manage their expectations - they clearly have a performance advantage over IDEC so just need to keep faith that average weather systems will keep them in the hunt. Provided they are near enough, the leg back up the Atlantic should be an opportunity for them.

Still frustrated that the wind overlays on the tracker do not relate to the boat data. Currently suggesting 21 knots NW but data says it is actually 27, which is significantly different.

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1 hour ago, Boink said:

I was wondering a few days ago whther they would pull the pin and do a reset.

They are more than fully committed now. So as pointed out, they have an interesting challenge as to what will happen with this system - will the low forming below them break off distinctly from what it is connected to at the moment? How long can they stay in the Zone of good pressure gradient and flattish seas? Having a smooth runway is as or more important as windspeed/direction to these machines. 

The Idec run over that week was something special - so lots to play for - I would think that Spindrift have a playbook of how to manage their expectations - they clearly have a performance advantage over IDEC so just need to keep faith that average weather systems will keep them in the hunt. Provided they are near enough, the leg back up the Atlantic should be an opportunity for them.

Still frustrated that the wind overlays on the tracker do not relate to the boat data. Currently suggesting 21 knots NW but data says it is actually 27, which is significantly different.

Glad someone else realizes this is a newer, faster boat than IDEC with twice the crew and >20% length increase. I suspect they would still like a day lead by the horn as they have alluded to decreased performance upwind in less than 20 kts of breeze compared to her BPV configuration. That will be tough to achieve given IDEC's impressive luck with the weather.

+/-5 kts on a GRIB is about on par with reality I would say. These are averaged files and in that part of the world and anywhere south they don't have a ton of data to make corrections with. Its getting better with satellites but if their are clouds all bets are off

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The tracker is down for me (chrome and safari on a mac, and chrome on tel/tablet), same for everybody ?

 

And apparently it's the entire geovoile site which is down :

 

http://www.geovoile.com/

 

edit : it is indeed gevoile servers which are down, they (or he ?) are working on it (answer from SD racing on messenger, FB private msgs)

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It's working now.

More complains this morning that there were problems with the tracker in facebook too.

 

Down again !! Oh ! Patience >:(

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Yeah ! :(

But now they have north wind apparently, they should be diving more South

North wind most probably a glitch as well.

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10 hours ago, samc99us said:

Glad someone else realizes this is a newer, faster boat than IDEC with twice the crew and >20% length increase. I suspect they would still like a day lead by the horn as they have alluded to decreased performance upwind in less than 20 kts of breeze compared to her BPV configuration. That will be tough to achieve given IDEC's impressive luck with the weather.

+/-5 kts on a GRIB is about on par with reality I would say. These are averaged files and in that part of the world and anywhere south they don't have a ton of data to make corrections with. Its getting better with satellites but if their are clouds all bets are off

Hey Sam - Are you sure twice the crew (and stores) are an advantage?  They clearly know more than I and must think so given its their choice... but I wonder.  Performance to date does not suggest much of a top end speed advantage in ideal conditions (they do have clear advantage in other conditions) but for this next stretch relative to IDEC its all about top end.  Fun to watch... when the frenchies get their tracker to work LOL.

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Since their North Atlantic record setting match both boats have changed a lot, but there the top end speed was clearly in BPV favor.

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Spindrift is much longer but almost the same width : 23m vs 22,5 m

But bigger mast (even the shortened one), bigger sail, and has dropped quite a bit of weight since its BPV configuration (according to Ultim boat) : 23 to 21,5 tons :

https://www.ultimboat.com/spindrift-2

Idec 18 tons, 15.5 with the small mast :

https://www.ultimboat.com/solo-banque-populaire-vii

Overall clearly SD2 should be quicker in same conditions and has shown it especially during their transatlantic record (as BPV), and they said above 20 knts (or 16 , forgot) they are quicker with the short mast.

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Tracker is back.  They have a 24-hour average of 35.7 now, and are presently doing 35.4, and the wind angle allows them to maintain very high VMG.  They may be knocking out 800-850+ nm per day for several days.  Gotta wonder if they might be able to ramp it up toward the 24-hr record of 907.9.  I don't think the tracker shows their 24-hour mileage, but the "graphics" tab shows their 24-hr average speeds...  They'd need to hit 37.83 on that to get that record.

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I guess they would like to be a bit more South, another gybe coming soon ?

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If the wind turns a little more north they could just point a little more south. Maybe that would be enough.

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On 1/26/2019 at 4:46 AM, Fralo said:

In 2016-17, Francis Joyon's fantastic sprint started at the beginning of day 12, and ended at the end of day 20.

This is great, do you you have this chart for the entire 40 days? on your web site?

On 1/26/2019 at 4:53 PM, Boink said:

Still frustrated that the wind overlays on the tracker do not relate to the boat data. Currently suggesting 21 knots NW but data says it is actually 27, which is significantly different

The wind data doesn't seem to refresh unless you re-load the page, then it seems to line up.

15 hours ago, yl75 said:

Overall clearly SD2 should be quicker in same conditions and has shown it especially during their transatlantic record (as BPV), and they said above 20 knts (or 16 , forgot) they are quicker with the short mast.

Thanks for the comparison and information.  Has anyone seen a data based explanation why the shorter mast is faster?  Joyon's mast reduction on IDEC seemed to work well, but I'm not really sure why, particularly when giving up sail area in the light wind transitions.  I imagine that 1) without reefing (or with less reefing) the rig would be more efficient, 2) the boat would pitch less with less weight aloft and 3) of course the mast, sails, rigging are lighter. Is there an interaction with these factors and the foils? What matters the most? 

We haven't yet seen any runs from the current configuration that is faster than IDEC's last trip. Of course the conditions may not be the same.  SD2 being 6 tons heavier seems like an issue!

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22 minutes ago, tama_manu said:

This is great, do you you have this chart for the entire 40 days? on your web site?

The wind data doesn't seem to refresh unless you re-load the page, then it seems to line up.

Thanks for the comparison and information.  Has anyone seen a data based explanation why the shorter mast is faster?  Joyon's mast reduction on IDEC seemed to work well, but I'm not really sure why, particularly when giving up sail area in the light wind transitions.  I imagine that 1) without reefing (or with less reefing) the rig would be more efficient, 2) the boat would pitch less with less weight aloft and 3) of course the mast, sails, rigging are lighter. Is there an interaction with these factors and the foils? What matters the most? 

We haven't yet seen any runs from the current configuration that is faster than IDEC's last trip. Of course the conditions may not be the same.  SD2 being 6 tons heavier seems like an issue!

If I remember the explanations given by the different teams when they decided to reduce their masts, it is a combination of the 3 with an emphasis on the first one.

They figured out the they spend a lot of time with at least one reef (with the previous tall masts) and the drag of that extra spar sticking on top, was more detrimental than the actual gain in the light stuff where they had full main. Apparently better to suffer a little bit in the light stuff and be more aerodynamically more efficient in the heavy stuff....

 

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2 hours ago, tama_manu said:

This is great, do you you have this chart for the entire 40 days? on your web site?

Here is the entire chart :


positions2016.2017.png

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31 minutes ago, semelis said:

They finally had to gybe.

90 degrees change of course in 23 knots of true wind seems like excessive though. Idec ghost have over 7 knots better VMG due to that, and SD2 just keeps bleeding off the lead they have.

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12 minutes ago, NotSoFast said:

90 degrees change of course in 23 knots of true wind seems like excessive though. Idec ghost have over 7 knots better VMG due to that, and SD2 just keeps bleeding off the lead they have.

Don’t forget they have 1 maybe more strategists back at the base as well as a navigator onboard to best calculate their route and they can’t race boat for boat a ghost of a record set 2 years ago...

they have already said that the boat is weaker in a vmg running mode with sub 20kts of breeze with the short rig. Very different to Macif for example that seems to excel in vmg running on a lighter platform with lifting foils. Spindrift 2 is a big unit of a boat and needs the stronger breeze