yl75

Spindrift 2 Jules Verne 2018

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1 hour ago, samc99us said:

Wess,

   They certainly know more than I do as well and I suspect checked the data from IDEC plus their own boat. This is all from memory but I recall on BPV they took 16 crew and it took 8 men 30 minutes to hoist the mainsail! So this is probably a happy medium on that particular boat; I am also pretty sure that on IDEC with 6 crew that is very short handed for 40 days at sea, especially if there is any technical problem to deal with (always is) or you are in harsher than forecast conditions for 8+ hours. Bottom line is I think higher top end speeds can be maintained when you have fresh drivers and trimmers so having more crew there is certainly an advantage, but how much of that offsets the additional stores needed I couldn't say.

I suspect that after this attempt we won't see crew sizes larger than IDEC's in RTW records, probably down to something like 4 sailors max as the flying boats are even more weight sensitive! Though at 37 kts average speed there isn't much of SD2 actually in the water!

Kinda interesting Sam. They have not been able to hold that 37 knots as a long term average.  They seem to be gybing not just for angle but for wind band of 20-25 knots.  They could get more breeze and similar sea state (and shorter route) a bit further south recently without ice risk but seem to have opted for the 20-25 knots wind band pretty consistently.  With that they seem to average low to mid 30s as boat speed.  Fast obviously, but IDEC was able to hold just over 35-36 knots for days on end.  Be interesting to see if that is a gear SD2 has in this configuration.  Obviously in conditions coming down the Atlantic, SD2 walked on IDEC.  In the Southern Ocean it remains to be seen if they can.  Fun to watch and armchair speculate though.  They seem to have a nice runway for quite a bit.

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2 hours ago, Laurent said:

Silverstert, why do you say that they have a miles bleeding problem to IDEC? That's not what the data shows. They have always been ahead so far, with ups and downs, and they regained a good chunk of their lead in the past few days. And let's not forget that at the time, IDEC had the best 9 days run seen in sailing history. Ever.

...

So far, they are holding pretty well...

 

 

Well, they lost 6 nm in 2 hours... although at the moment they are at 30 kts VMG for the last 4 hours... not bad at all... but IDEC is still faster and they are getting even faster, all in a straight line...

As semelis said, it will probably be hard to find another 9-day run above 700 nm each AND pointing the whole time in the right direction, but for us it will be quite easy to find this out... we just need to wait for another couple of days...

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They can "easily"  be 1 day faster in the Horn-Equator stint, but from the Equator to Ouessant IDEC was very fast.

The Pacific will be important IMHO.

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24 minutes ago, Wess said:

Kinda interesting Sam. They have not been able to hold that 37 knots as a long term average.  They seem to be gybing not just for angle but for wind band of 20-25 knots.  They could get more breeze and similar sea state (and shorter route) a bit further south recently without ice risk but seem to have opted for the 20-25 knots wind band pretty consistently.  With that they seem to average low to mid 30s as boat speed.  Fast obviously, but IDEC was able to hold just over 35-36 knots for days on end.  Be interesting to see if that is a gear SD2 has in this configuration.  Obviously in conditions coming down the Atlantic, SD2 walked on IDEC.  In the Southern Ocean it remains to be seen if they can.  Fun to watch and armchair speculate though.  They seem to have a nice runway for quite a bit.

It will definitely be interesting. IDEC in her previous configuration as Lending Club 2/Groupama 3 would easily touch 40 kts; maintaining those sort of speeds for extended runs I'm not so sure. Would be nice to see the polars!

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well, the probability is as high that they will be one day behind... or even more... maybe some other experts can make a better guesstimate

As it seems, SD2 will have less than 6 hours advantage when crossing Cape of good hope...

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9 hours ago, Fralo said:

Here is the entire chart :

Nice! Thank you, good to have the data - and it is already the subject of debate!

2 hours ago, NotSoFast said:

Compare data for VMG (as defined for the tracker) rather than boatspeed and you will see that is not the case.

Sure, there are different ways to slice the numbers for IDEC's run, do you know of a comparison with any other boat going faster?

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And one more thing to consider... IDEC was at this point something like 580 nm behind the reference time! So, considering this, SD2 hasn't been that fast at all. Let us not forget, that at the end Gabart was single-handed just slightly slower than IDEC, but on the other hand it doesn't matter if they manage to brake the record.

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25 minutes ago, Liquid said:

any video coming off the boat?

Only one video from the boat, at Equator :

 

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Cape of Good Hope passed:

TIME: 12D 13H 08MIN 

ADVANCE: 06H 32MIN

It soon turns Day 13, which was IDEC's fastest day (872.8), followed by their 2nd fastest day(872.3).  Will SD2 be able to sustain over 35 knots?

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Just noticed what appeared to be discrepancies in the tracker's presentation of how they're doing against IDec, and then realized the numbers are "right" but require that you understand how each is measured.  Here's what I'm talking about...

-At CoGH, their gap was 6:32.  (At Alguhas, 6:42).

-But their "distance ahead" is around 350 nm.  That doesn't correspond to a gap of 6:42.  Then I realized that's simply because the time gap is measured on each cape's longitude, whereas the "distance ahead" is measured along rhumb, and Spindrift is simply very close to rhumb.  Similarly, if at a later time Spindrift is further from rhumb than IDec, we may see the "distance ahead/behind" tilt in favor of IDec versus what the official time gaps would indicate.  This was fairly obvious when Spindrift was sailing toward the Falklands, but more subtle now.  Of course, it all becomes moot whenever their lines converge.

-In the "Graphics", where it shows the "distance ahead", it claims that 354 nm is 16 hours.  That seemed excessive...  but I think it's using the record's average of 22 kts (not sure if that was VMG or speed) to come out to 16 hours for 354 nm.

None of this is of particular consequence, because Spindrift is racing a ghost that sailed in different weather systems from present, and the rhumbline isn't the shortest course but rather someone's best approximation of a "standard" course, as far as I can tell.  My point is that the margins are subject to some interpretation.  Spindrift is ahead by all measures, but how far ahead depends on how you want to look at it.

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Even if it does not matter much, the weather in Good Hope is wrong for 6 minutes: departure 16.01.2019 at 11h 47 am UTC, Good hope 29.01.2019 at 00:50 UTC, this gives 12d 13h 2m while the official website has posted 12d 13h 8m.
Same 6 minutes error for Aguileras.

It's a shame to put wrong times online.

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37 minutes ago, Fralo said:

Even if it does not matter much, the weather in Good Hope is wrong for 6 minutes: departure 16.01.2019 at 11h 47 am UTC, Good hope 29.01.2019 at 00:50 UTC, this gives 12d 13h 2m while the official website has posted 12d 13h 8m.
Same 6 minutes error for Aguileras.

It's a shame to put wrong times online.

The timing, not the weather... 

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Just because of the difference in latitude SD2 has a 10% shorter distance to sail!

I do not want to jinx them, but how much risk are they taking by sailing that far in the south? Are there any reports of icebergs?

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They expect them for Wednesday.

Guichard:  Mais on va aussi avoir des icebergs devant nous à partir de mercredi : il va falloir veiller au radar et aux lunettes à infra-rouges. Cela s’annonce un peu tendu…

(Because they may have to go south of 53º)

"But we'll have icebergs in front from Wednesday on: it will be necessary to keep watch on radar and with the infra-red googles. Prospects are a bit tense ..."

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54 minutes ago, semelis said:

They expect them for Wednesday.

Guichard:  Mais on va aussi avoir des icebergs devant nous à partir de mercredi : il va falloir veiller au radar et aux lunettes à infra-rouges. Cela s’annonce un peu tendu…

(Because they may have to go south of 53º)

"But we'll have icebergs in front from Wednesday on: it will be necessary to keep watch on radar and with the infra-red googles. Prospects are a bit tense ..."

Yes and I think there is a kind of "iceberg path" in this area, caanot find the maps again right now (phone)

 

for instance :

5966303babc1c8fb2b8b45cb-1136-1043.png

 

dont know the season though

 

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They say the water temperature is 1°C, I wonder how they can see an iceberg with IR goggles if there is no difference in temperature? It would work only for big ones with 35 kts boat speed and  5m waves...

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Last 3 days have been pretty impressive, and they think they can keep it up for another 2 up to the Kerguelen, and probably enter the Pacific with similar times if not ahead of IDEC.

Looking at the 3D view is very obvious the shorter route they are taking by being further south.

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11 hours ago, Your Mom said:

Just noticed what appeared to be discrepancies in the tracker's presentation of how they're doing against IDec, and then realized the numbers are "right" but require that you understand how each is measured.  Here's what I'm talking about...

-At CoGH, their gap was 6:32.  (At Alguhas, 6:42).

-But their "distance ahead" is around 350 nm.  That doesn't correspond to a gap of 6:42.  Then I realized that's simply because the time gap is measured on each cape's longitude, whereas the "distance ahead" is measured along rhumb, and Spindrift is simply very close to rhumb.  Similarly, if at a later time Spindrift is further from rhumb than IDec, we may see the "distance ahead/behind" tilt in favor of IDec versus what the official time gaps would indicate.  This was fairly obvious when Spindrift was sailing toward the Falklands, but more subtle now.  Of course, it all becomes moot whenever their lines converge.

-In the "Graphics", where it shows the "distance ahead", it claims that 354 nm is 16 hours.  That seemed excessive...  but I think it's using the record's average of 22 kts (not sure if that was VMG or speed) to come out to 16 hours for 354 nm.

None of this is of particular consequence, because Spindrift is racing a ghost that sailed in different weather systems from present, and the rhumbline isn't the shortest course but rather someone's best approximation of a "standard" course, as far as I can tell.  My point is that the margins are subject to some interpretation.  Spindrift is ahead by all measures, but how far ahead depends on how you want to look at it.

If your latter assumption in bold type above would be correct, the difference in distance would be less than 250 nautical miles. Yet, in the treacker it's well above 350 nm. The only way to make the numbers correct as they are, is to define rhumbline to be a great circle route passing over land (Antarctica). The great circle distance between the boat positions at the same time is less than 10% greater than the stated lead of SD2. That direction roughly match up with the great circle route over land.

My conclusion of all that is that the lead distance in the website is practically nonsense, and thus irrelevant. Time different at each stated passing mark is far more relevant, although not the whole truth either, as it ignores the distance remaining from each passing mark position (of each boat) toward Cap horn with realistic route. Since SD2 is located further south, it has less distance remaining from Cape OF Good Hope reference position to Cap Horn than Idec Sport. That difference in distance should be added to the lead calculated by multiplying time difference and VMG as above, in order to get a realistic lead number.

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4 minutes ago, NotSoFast said:

...

My conclusion of all that is that the lead distance in the website is practically nonsense, and thus irrelevant. Time different at each stated passing mark is far more relevant, although not the whole truth either, as it ignores the distance remaining from each passing mark position (of each boat) toward Cap horn with realistic route. Since SD2 is located further south, it has less distance remaining from Cape OF Good Hope reference position to Cap Horn than Idec Sport. That difference in distance should be added to the lead calculated by multiplying time difference and VMG as above, in order to get a realistic lead number.

I agree. 

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It would be interesting to compare the routes with the ones from Gabart and maybe Coville or even BPV.

I guess the current one depends mostly on weather, but IMHO SD2 is sailing a much more southern route than any other team has done in recent years. Although legal, to me this is like a little bit of cheating ;)

I guess someone mentioned a limit, how far is it allowed to go south?

@NotSoFast

If they are calculating the distance&co. from the actual position to the Cape Horn, than the given data should be just fine, but you are right, only time matters, at passing marks and at the end. No one cares how many miles were actually sailed.

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In the two attempts in the old Sodebo that turned in about a 2 months time, just a bit slower than the 57 days record that Joyon had back then,  Coville sailed faster but through a much longer route.

Weather luck, including how far south is possible to go without icebergs is key, not only because of distance gain but also to be able to profit the wind when the lows dive south.

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Some of the  footage from the old VOR boats going way south was scary enough, I can't imagine doing 35 knots at night with ice around.

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1 hour ago, silvestert said:

It would be interesting to compare the routes with the ones from Gabart and maybe Coville or even BPV.

I guess the current one depends mostly on weather, but IMHO SD2 is sailing a much more southern route than any other team has done in recent years. Although legal, to me this is like a little bit of cheating ;)

I guess someone mentioned a limit, how far is it allowed to go south?

@NotSoFast

If they are calculating the distance&co. from the actual position to the Cape Horn, than the given data should be just fine, but you are right, only time matters, at passing marks and at the end. No one cares how many miles were actually sailed.

62 deg S I believe for the JV trophee as part of the minimum distance requirement.  No such rule for the record as far as i know.  Would be interested to know if anyone has more info on that.

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42 minutes ago, semelis said:

In the two attempts in the old Sodebo that turned in about a 2 months time, just a bit slower than the 57 days record that Joyon had back then,  Coville sailed faster but through a much longer route.

Weather luck, including how far south is possible to go without icebergs is key, not only because of distance gain but also to be able to profit the wind when the lows dive south.

From the accuracy of the armchair navigational night school I attended, it looks like  the frontal passages and their postions N-S determine the best route.  Joyon enjoyed a robust ride that was N of the Front Spindrift is riding.  Once you catch your best frontal wave option,  it sure seems like a roll of the dice as to where your ideal wave is at N-S,  where it's headed etc.

 

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11 minutes ago, dolphinmaster said:

From the accuracy of the armchair navigational night school I attended, it looks like  the frontal passages and their postions N-S determine the best route.  Joyon enjoyed a robust ride that was N of the Front Spindrift is riding.  Once you catch your best frontal wave option,  it sure seems like a roll of the dice as to where your ideal wave is at N-S,  where it's headed etc.

 

That's what I wanted to say :)

SD2 front is souther than IDEC's, which is good because makes for a shorter route, but could be bad if they have to abandon it to go north to avoid the ice.

The there's the question of how far will it last.

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34 minutes ago, jb5 said:

62 deg S I believe for the JV trophee as part of the minimum distance requirement.  No such rule for the record as far as i know.  Would be interested to know if anyone has more info on that. 

Titouan Lamazou, creator of the TJV, with Florence Arthaut, is absolutely opposed to the introduction of binding rules in Jules Verne. He wanted it to be a challenge of absolute freedom for sailors.

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They have paid the fee for the JV so 62 south it is.

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In any case the question for them right now is more whether they will be able to jump over, or,at least take the trail of , the low in front which is quite north

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4 hours ago, yl75 said:

In any case the question for them right now is more whether they will be able to jump over, or,at least take the trail of , the low in front which is quite north

So far it seems possible.

That would be a good leap.

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I'm trying to remember, did IDEC ever have to slow down to make any repairs on their RTW trip? 

I know one thing, the big truck (Spindrift2) seems to just steam along more effortlessly, and more surely than any of the other RTW racehorses.  I know that would be the boat, out of all of them, I would want to be riding in the Southern Ocean. 

I think some people here are kind of missing the point of what Yann is doing.  He has had failed attempts, and he knows he can nail a 24h record pretty much whenever he wants if that is his goal.  But he is not caring about setting a 24h record, and you can bet your ass he could be picking up the pace if he wanted.  But, instead, he wants the Jules Verne, I'm sure he is setting a really solid sustainable pace at 34-35 knotts, staying safe while going deep, keeping the boat in tact, slowly extending his lead, and setting up weather windows rather than trying to blaze at 37-38 knotts to set a record and gain more lead, faster, which may evaporate.  When the conditions make sense to put the pedal down harder, he will.

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It's interesting that they are able to slowly increase their lead in spite of being slower through the water than IDEC. 
Being a couple hundred miles further South is pretty helpful as it turns out! It looks like they are going to have to go North a bit in the next couple of days, and they'll have to start gybing as the course will be DDW but it looks like they'll keep some good breeze at least until Taz

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I was moved earlier to calculate that Gabart's record is almost exactly fives times faster than Jean Luc Van Der Heede's Golden Globe time. I find it highly amusing that with a Vendee win and the solo round the world record, Gabart has spent less time sailing around the world in total than any of the Golden Globe Competitors. I just say this because these trimaran RTW attempts are just the absolute greatest thing to follow. Go Spindrift!

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1 hour ago, Airwick said:

It's interesting that they are able to slowly increase their lead in spite of being slower through the water than IDEC. 
Being a couple hundred miles further South is pretty helpful as it turns out! It looks like they are going to have to go North a bit in the next couple of days, and they'll have to start gybing as the course will be DDW but it looks like they'll keep some good breeze at least until Taz

5° = 10%

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5 hours ago, GauchoGreg said:

I'm trying to remember, did IDEC ever have to slow down to make any repairs on their RTW trip? 

I know one thing, the big truck (Spindrift2) seems to just steam along more effortlessly, and more surely than any of the other RTW racehorses.  I know that would be the boat, out of all of them, I would want to be riding in the Southern Ocean. 

I think some people here are kind of missing the point of what Yann is doing.  He has had failed attempts, and he knows he can nail a 24h record pretty much whenever he wants if that is his goal.  But he is not caring about setting a 24h record, and you can bet your ass he could be picking up the pace if he wanted.  But, instead, he wants the Jules Verne, I'm sure he is setting a really solid sustainable pace at 34-35 knotts, staying safe while going deep, keeping the boat in tact, slowly extending his lead, and setting up weather windows rather than trying to blaze at 37-38 knotts to set a record and gain more lead, faster, which may evaporate.  When the conditions make sense to put the pedal down harder, he will.

For sure their primary goal is the JV, but I don't think they are holding back much if any at all.

Joyon in their Indian ocean run had stronger conditions : they were right in front of a low with around 35 knts wind, that's quite different from the 25 28 knts SD2 is getting

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Below an interesting paper about southern Ocean low systems (called mesocyclones in the paper) :

http://www.sail.msk.ru/articles/1502019772.pdf

In particular figure 3 provides their "speed" (propagation velocity), and life time distributions :

capture-d_e%CC%81cran-2019-01-30-a%CC%80

15 m/s is 29.5 knots, 35 knots is 18 m/s, so Joyon was really quite lucky in picking a fast and very long lived one ! (60 hours appearing as the maximum lifetime in above figure, but I find it a bit strange that 10 hours is the mean lifetime of these lows, they seem to last at least 2 to 3 days on average).

And really now the challenge will be not only to be able to stay in front of one, but to jump from one to the one in front (eastward).

Let's see what can SD do on that. (and what the ultims will do)

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33 minutes ago, yl75 said:

Below an interesting paper about southern Ocean low systems (called mesocyclones in the paper) :

http://www.sail.msk.ru/articles/1502019772.pdf

 

15 m/s is 29.5 knots, 35 knots is 18 m/s, so Joyon was really quite lucky in picking a fast and very long lived one ! (60 hours appearing as the maximum lifetime in above figure, but I find it a bit strange that 10 hours is the mean lifetime of these lows, they seem to last at least 2 to 3 days on average).

And really now the challenge will be not only to be able to stay in front of one, but to jump from one to the one in front (eastward).

Let's see what can SD do on that. (and what the ultims will do)

At the beginning of the paper they define the mesocyclones as having less than 1000 km in diameter. That's smaller than than both, the one in front of SD2 and the one they are riding.

And I've not checked, but I'm sure also smaller than the one that got IDEC across the Indian Ocean.

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10 minutes ago, Tropical Madness said:

gonna get interesting in 2-3 days when they fall off this front...

As long as the front doesn't fall off of the environment ...

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1 hour ago, semelis said:

At the beginning of the paper they define the mesocyclones as having less than 1000 km in diameter. That's smaller than than both, the one in front of SD2 and the one they are riding.

And I've not checked, but I'm sure also smaller than the one that got IDEC across the Indian Ocean.

Yes you are right, went a bit quickly after a google search on "low pressure systems speed southern ocean", and didn't really read the paper :)

Would be nice to find the equivalent data for low pressure systems

 

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7 hours ago, yl75 said:

For sure their primary goal is the JV, but I don't think they are holding back much if any at all.

Joyon in their Indian ocean run had stronger conditions : they were right in front of a low with around 35 knts wind, that's quite different from the 25 28 knts SD2 is getting

The point is that if they see a weather window (or block) up ahead that they figure they are going to park up (relatively), anyway, that there is no point in pushing it, getting ahead of things now, to then have to just wait, anyway.  May be wiser to keep a more comfortable pace, particularly diving deeper south where they should keep things a bit more conservative.  I don't know... I just do not believe Spindrift is incapable of performance that IDEC had, particularly in the Southern Ocean.... that is what that boat was made for.  That may be different in light/variable conditions going back up the Atlantic, where I could see IDEC having an advantage.

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51 minutes ago, GauchoGreg said:

The point is that if they see a weather window (or block) up ahead that they figure they are going to park up (relatively), anyway, that there is no point in pushing it, getting ahead of things now, to then have to just wait, anyway.  May be wiser to keep a more comfortable pace, particularly diving deeper south where they should keep things a bit more conservative.  I don't know... I just do not believe Spindrift is incapable of performance that IDEC had, particularly in the Southern Ocean.... that is what that boat was made for.  That may be different in light/variable conditions going back up the Atlantic, where I could see IDEC having an advantage.

For sure Spindrift can do as well and most probably  better or much better than IDEC under the same conditions, but effectively they don't have the same, and IDEC conditions from pre good hope to NZ were exceptional.

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6 minutes ago, yl75 said:

For sure Spindrift can do as well and most probably  better or much better than IDEC under the same conditions, but effectively they don't have the same, and IDEC conditions from pre good hope to NZ were exceptional.

I agree.  Some of the comments in this thread seemed to have indicated people thought otherwise. 

I have to admit I have an affection for Spindrift as it was developed to be the most bad-assed sailboat ever, not giving a damn about any rules.  It is also why I like Gitana.  I'm less enthralled by the Ultime collective given their rules and how they have boxed Spindrift out of races.  The fact that modern design, with foiling, makes the size less important and far less of an advantage for Spindrift, should be enough for the Collective to drop their dumb rules (or at the least stop trying to prevent Spindrift from racing with them in races that they have not even created), and just have their organization simply promote the hottest sailboats that have ever been developed to circle the world, and let Spindrift race with them.

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2 hours ago, Tropical Madness said:

gonna get interesting in 2-3 days when they fall off this front...

Not seeing them getting stuck. Some less than ideal angles relative to VMG and I doubt they gain... maybe their lead may be diminished (or even lost) by Leeuwin, but this punter does not see anything fatal in the forecasts yet and expect them to still be in the hunt entering the Pacific.

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They are hanging in there, keeping a 350 nm ( or if you prefer, 8º of longitude , or about 10 hours at their "current" speeds of 35 knts) lead.

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Yea with a good angle at the present.  But that (good angle) does not appear likely to sustain to Leeuwin and so even if the speed stays OK the gybes in coming days might chew up some of that lead when VMG goes to pot.  Or not.  YMMV.  Maybe they have another gear.

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31 minutes ago, GauchoGreg said:

I agree.  Some of the comments in this thread seemed to have indicated people thought otherwise. 

I have to admit I have an affection for Spindrift as it was developed to be the most bad-assed sailboat ever, not giving a damn about any rules.  It is also why I like Gitana.  I'm less enthralled by the Ultime collective given their rules and how they have boxed Spindrift out of races.  The fact that modern design, with foiling, makes the size less important and far less of an advantage for Spindrift, should be enough for the Collective to drop their dumb rules (or at the least stop trying to prevent Spindrift from racing with them in races that they have not even created), and just have their organization simply promote the hottest sailboats that have ever been developed to circle the world, and let Spindrift race with them.

I'm not a Spindrift fan.  I think they have wasted this boats potential, at least until now, but I do agree about the Ultime thing.  Those rules make the class anything but 'Ultime'.  Whole thing seems short sighted.  That and the apparently high cost of class entry to Ultime are probably why IDEC turned away from anything to do with it.  Similarly the JV Trophee rules make no sense in an open contest against time and of course there are two sets of fees to be measured for the record and the Trophee if you want to be counted for it.  If not you get an even crazier situation where the JV holder isn't the record holder such as Cheyenne.  Rant over.  

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RIP Steve Fossett and Cheyenne.  Back from the days when it took some brass ones, rather than computer jockeys to get around.

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6 hours ago, semelis said:

As long as the front doesn't fall off of the environment ...

I have to agree, it would be quite hard to tow the environment out of the environment.

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Am I right that the Ultime rule was driven by considerations around solo sailing, so it attempted to put a limit on what solo sailors would have to try to sail. But as people have noted above, the racing hasn't really gelled around either solo or crewed and the rule was created right at the start of the flying era so perhaps hasn't aligned perfectly with how things have actually evolved.

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Spindrift is a much bigger boat, especially before the new shorter mast.  Ultimes wanted Spindrift out because they were going to lose if Spindrift could be sailed on the edge with 8 grinders ready to trim the giant main back in every time it was dumped.  So they limited crew sizes or barred anything over 100ft.  Foils may or may not make up the +40% LOA but the Ultimes need to protect their sponsors investment.  The "Ultime" name is just marketing.  It's a box rule like class 40. The well funded AC teams could build a boat way more ultimate than Spindrift if they spent their $100mm on ocean racing.

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20 hours ago, semelis said:

At the beginning of the paper they define the mesocyclones as having less than 1000 km in diameter. That's smaller than than both, the one in front of SD2 and the one they are riding.

And I've not checked, but I'm sure also smaller than the one that got IDEC across the Indian Ocean.

Below an article on southern ocean "real lows" :

http://www.umr-cnrm.fr/recyf/IMG/pdf/Hoskins_and_Hodges05.pdf

But they don't talk much about their speed, except :

"Further diagnostics of the cyclonic 850 wintertime systems are presented in Figs. 5a–d. Figure 5a shows the average speed of the cyclonic weather systems (contour lines) and their mean lifetimes (colors). The average speeds and directions (not shown) reflect the mean flow at about 700 hPa, with a maximum average speed in the western Indian Ocean of about 18 m s1 and closer to 14 m s1 elsewhere. The direction of movement is predominantly eastward, with a small poleward component that is much enhanced in the eastern Indian Ocean extending through to the western Pacific, consistent with the spiral track picture there. The average lifetime of systems is remarkably uniform at 5–6 days but is lower around Antarctica (4 days) and higher in the subtropical western Pacific (7 days). However, this distribution is somewhat biased by the fact that only mobile systems that live longer than 2 days contribute to the statistics. "

 

I don't really understand the 700 hPa bit (seems really low)

 

And spindrift juste gybed

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3 minutes ago, yl75 said:

Below an article on southern ocean "real lows" :

http://www.umr-cnrm.fr/recyf/IMG/pdf/Hoskins_and_Hodges05.pdf

But they don't talk much about their speed, except :

"Further diagnostics of the cyclonic 850 wintertime systems are presented in Figs. 5a–d. Figure 5a shows the average speed of the cyclonic weather systems (contour lines) and their mean lifetimes (colors). The average speeds and directions (not shown) reflect the mean flow at about 700 hPa, with a maximum average speed in the western Indian Ocean of about 18 m s1 and closer to 14 m s1 elsewhere. The direction of movement is predominantly eastward, with a small poleward component that is much enhanced in the eastern Indian Ocean extending through to the western Pacific, consistent with the spiral track picture there. The average lifetime of systems is remarkably uniform at 5–6 days but is lower around Antarctica (4 days) and higher in the subtropical western Pacific (7 days). However, this distribution is somewhat biased by the fact that only mobile systems that live longer than 2 days contribute to the statistics. "

 

I don't really understand the 700 hPa bit (seems really low)

Or high, above sea level.

Instead of giving a height in meters, meteorologists like to reference the point where there's a given pressure. Kind of balancing air mass above and below that point.

I'll read it more carefully later, seems interesting. Lifetime averages still shorter than Joyon's ride, they were lucky !

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Thanks for those links y175,  good meteorologic science.

21 hours ago, yl75 said:

And really now the challenge will be not only to be able to stay in front of one, but to jump from one to the one in front (eastward).

Let's see what can SD do on that. (and what the ultims will do)

I have noticed over the years that the big tris are not only able to stay with the low-pressure systems but are capable of getting to the front of them before the low heads south.

I could certainly be wrong, but I haven't seen anybody yet speed through the 'high' pressure ridge separating the low they're currently in from the one in front (eastward).

Spindrift 2 has just gybed below Kerguelen Island looking to make the jump. If they do, it's a whole new ballgame...

 

Edited by t.rex
clarity

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2 hours ago, t.rex said:

Thanks for those links y175,  good meteorologic science.

I have noticed over the years that the big tris are not only able to stay with the low-pressure systems but are capable of getting to the front of them before the low heads south.

I could certainly be wrong, but I haven't seen anybody yet speed through the 'high' pressure ridge separating the low they're currently in from the one in front (eastward).

Spindrift 2 has just gybed below Kerguelen Island looking to make the jump. If they do, it's a whole new ballgame...

 

What jump you talking bout Willis?

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To the low pressure system centered about 1000 nautical miles to the east of them.

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2 hours ago, t.rex said:

Thanks for those links y175,  good meteorologic science.

I have noticed over the years that the big tris are not only able to stay with the low-pressure systems but are capable of getting to the front of them before the low heads south.

I could certainly be wrong, but I haven't seen anybody yet speed through the 'high' pressure ridge separating the low they're currently in from the one in front (eastward).

Spindrift 2 has just gybed below Kerguelen Island looking to make the jump. If they do, it's a whole new ballgame...

 

Idec's was a charmed run, I thought at the time it would require a boat capable of doing just that, a boat not limited by the speed of the weather systems, to beat the record. These guys are giving it a hell of a try, they may prove me wrong.

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First 2 gybes and vmg has plummeted !

And it looks like tomorrow they will end going north of IDEC's route .

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23 hours ago, yl75 said:

For sure Spindrift can do as well and most probably  better or much better than IDEC under the same conditions, but effectively they don't have the same, and IDEC conditions from pre good hope to NZ were exceptional.

When they were both in the southern ocean at the same time (when neither got the record) IDEC came from behind spindrift, passed within 2 miles of them and sailed away over the horizon.  you can find a video of this from IDEC.

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OTOH, when day went for the north Atlantic record, Groupama3 started before and and ended later, and BPV did over 900 nm in 24 hours while surpassing them.

Both boats are lighter than back then and with shorter masts, but different conditions will still favour one or the other.

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The forecast is for light wind patches to avoid and Dead Down Wind, looks like SD2 is going to fall behind the record pace but will still be in the hunt.

I noticed in the latest on board videos and photos that the crew looks comfortable in the garden shed out back, which also looks like it would help them sail faster with less mistakes over 40 days

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8 hours ago, rmb said:

When they were both in the southern ocean at the same time (when neither got the record) IDEC came from behind spindrift, passed within 2 miles of them and sailed away over the horizon.  you can find a video of this from IDEC.

 

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I think Spindrift's time will arrive in the South Pacific, the forecasts are looking good in about four days time.

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3 hours ago, Fiji Bitter said:

Where is Dona this time, anybody knows ?

 

Don't know, but one of her son is on board : Duncan Spath

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Mmmm, looks like Guichard not only cut that poor woman's legs, but also Mr. Späth lunch...

 

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2 hours ago, Fiji Bitter said:

Mmmm, looks like Guichard not only cut that poor woman's legs, but also Mr. Späth lunch...

 

Unless it was the woman who cut the skipper's legs in 2015-2016 ...

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2 hours ago, Fralo said:

Unless it was the woman who cut the skipper's legs in 2015-2016 ...

What does that mean?? 

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17 minutes ago, yl75 said:

What does that mean?? 

PM for explanations in French. If you want, you can translate it for the forum. 

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February first 17:30 UTC

Boatspeed only 12.9 knots, heading 50 degrees, VMG 1.6 knots.

true wind 23 knots. Not looking good.

False info on tracker or real world problems?

Changing a headsail, taking off a reef, or just preparing for a gybe?

 

EDIT (added info):

They had already slowed down at 16:31 UTC, 15.3 knots with heading 42 degrees and VMG of -0.2 knots.

Normal maneuvers shouldn't slow down the boat for that long.

Edited by NotSoFast
added info

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megde... debris, sunfish, cachalot..., a Joyons bouy left with love... what could be... putain

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That's a pity, they were doing quite well till now :(

The Pacific was going to be interesting ...

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As Mike said...

 

AT 1606H UTC YANN GUICHARD, SKIPPER OF SPINDRIFT 2, CONTACTED HIS TECHNICAL TEAM ASHORE TO REPORT DAMAGE TO THE STARBOARD RUDDER. SPINDRIFT RACING IS CHALLENGING FOR THE JULES VERNE TROPHY.  IT IS CURRENTLY NIGHT FOR THE CREW OF SPINDRIFT 2, WHICH HAS HAMPERED THEIR ASSESSMENT OF THE SITUATION. THE BOAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN, SAILING AT 15 KNOTS AND SOME 1200 MILES OFF CAPE LEEUWIN.

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Anybody know if its possible to swap rudders on that thing side to side?

Guessing they are done fore sure and headed up to the land down under. If not I would have thought they would have gybed to get the starboard rudder out of the water and see if repairs could be made.

Man there is some karma in this if its the same rudder.

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Extremely unlikely there's another chance this northern winter. Be interesting to see if they put it on a ship to send it home or repair it in Aus then sail home. Any point to point records they could attempt on the way back as a consolation?

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fuck, but why don't they gybe if it's the starboard rudder ?

Already took the decision to go to Perth or something ? :(

 

Edit : indeed the case :

 

 

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31 minutes ago, yl75 said:

fuck, but why don't they gybe if it's the starboard rudder ?

Already took the decision to go to Perth or something ? :(

 

Edit : indeed the case :

 

According to their Facebook page they're heading for SE Australia, ETA 4 days, so I would be assuming that Melbourne is their destination.

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Abandoned...... shit that sucks... I was worried it was more than just setting up a weather window when it looked like they were making a bee-line for the east coast of Australia.

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Cursed.  They seem to be cursed.  No way another shot this year and by next year are any of the foilers ready?

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9 minutes ago, Wess said:

Cursed.  They seem to be cursed.  No way another shot this year and by next year are any of the foilers ready?

Well, none of the foilers have made it across the Atlantic completely intact. Don't think any of them are ready to go around the world.,

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