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Point Break

Couple New Large Fires in Cali

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Big one in Ventura......reported that it went to 10,000 acres in a few hours. That’s moving out......another in Nor Cal around Paradise around 8,000 acres. The picture below was taken in Paradise by a Strike Team out of Oakland on their way to the fire.

A7D88E50-298F-4318-83B0-F761880F6ADB.jpeg

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Camp Fire is raging.

SJM-L-CAMPFIRE05.jpg?w=620

Down here in the Bay Area the sky is nothing but smoke. Wind forecast up to 60mph in some areas. Fucking great.

920x920.jpg

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5 minutes ago, hobot said:

YIKES!!

There was a lot of fuel in there, never stood a chance.

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3 minutes ago, bmiller said:

There was a lot of fuel in there, never stood a chance.

McDonalds is about in the center of the pic.

 

Paradise, CA..jpg

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It’s hazy atound here but, no fires reported.

Weather guy sez winds pick up in an hour but, that doesn’t seem likely.

Good luck to people up north.

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1f9266b6-846e-4831-bea2-14fb34b4f857-CamAnd here I thought fire season was over. Nope.

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:(:unsure:

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6 minutes ago, bhyde said:

1f9266b6-846e-4831-bea2-14fb34b4f857-CamAnd here I thought fire season was over. Nope.

No....it’s a little early. I’ve spent more than 1 Thanksgiving dinner in fire camp or on the line. Unless the El Niño comes through, I think the fellas are likely to spend Christmas there as well.........

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1 minute ago, Point Break said:

No....it’s a little early. I’ve spent more than 1 Thanksgiving dinner in fire camp or on the line. Unless the El Niño comes through, I think the fellas are likely to spend Christmas there as well.........

You're probably right. Fucking high pressure is camped out off the coast and dug in. There isn't drop of rain anywhere to be seen.

Look at this shit.

hipacsat.gif

And the Jet Stream is taking a Canadian holiday.

npac_250_36hr.png

 

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I still know a number of Butte County guys........gonna be a dangerous night.....be safe boys.

Reports are Paradise was devestated with fatalities. 

Chico is next.

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8 minutes ago, Point Break said:

I still know a number of Butte County guys........gonna be a dangerous night.....be safe boys.

Reports are Paradise was devestated with fatalities. 

Chico is next.

:(:(:(

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Weather guy nailed it:  winds kicked up @ 6pm as predicted.

Holy Jim flared up a couple weeks ago.   Heads up tonite canyon dwellers.

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Wow, that looks really rough. I had no idea anything was even going on.  Hope everyone gets out ok, stuff can always be replaced.

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Like Thousand Oak and the Ventura County Response Teams weren't already taxed yesterday with the shooting...  then the fire hits...  and these guys rise to the occasion and get after it...   whatever they are getting paid, its not enough.

 

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Santa Anas or Santanas?  Offshores, whichever way you call it.  Hot, dry and windy.  Not a good combination. To all the First Responders, and everybody else, stay safe out there!  

FBE8F60C-5E13-4884-86C1-A256801B52BA.jpeg

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12 hours ago, Point Break said:

We have one of our guys who retired to there. Haven’t heard from him. A bit worried.

Since he's an ex-Fire guy, I'm sure he knew what was going on and got the hell out. Probably helping other people out or lending a hand in the battle. Really hope he's ok.

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1 hour ago, Owen said:

Malibu is looking like a lesson in fuel clearance.  Holy shit!

Just got my cousin up here from "The Bu..."   lives off of Trancus Canyon...  frigging eerie out there  Malibu is under a mandatory evac order.

 

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13 minutes ago, nacradriver said:

Just got my cousin up here from "The Bu..."   lives off of Trancus Canyon...  frigging eerie out there  Malibu is under a mandatory evac order.

 

It's going to get worse, before it gets worse!

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2 hours ago, bhyde said:

Since he's an ex-Fire guy, I'm sure he knew what was going on and got the hell out. Probably helping other people out or lending a hand in the battle. Really hope he's ok.

Just heard from him. They are safe. His house is gone.

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4 minutes ago, Point Break said:

Just heard from him. They are safe. His house is gone.

Happy for you and him, sucks about the house.  I remember an October in CA years ago when fires were burning but nothing like these, this is hard to even grasp.

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Glad I moved out of Topanga last Summer.  Mandatory evacuation.  And some idiot flipped his car blocking the way to PCH.

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29 minutes ago, Point Break said:

It will go to the ocean.....again.....today or tonight.

Just like 1993.  

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25 minutes ago, Point Break said:

Just heard from him. They are safe. His house is gone.

Good news he's ok. And really fucked up he lost his house. It's not a stretch to imagine he didn't want to spend his retirement this way. It sucks.

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20 minutes ago, nacradriver said:

Just like 1993.  

Offshore wind will die down tonight.  A light onshore forecast for tomorrow. Big offshore forecast for Sunday evening through Wednesday or Thursday. It’s going to be a long, tough week.  

 

22 minutes ago, southerncross said:

Glad I moved out of Topanga last Summer.  Mandatory evacuation.  And some idiot flipped his car blocking the way to PCH.

Where are you, now?

Traffic is really fucked up now, 101 is closed, PCH is gridlocked. 

 

Drove through Palos Verdes this afternoon. The smoke above Malibu was huge. 

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7 minutes ago, silent bob said:

Offshore wind will die down tonight.  A light onshore forecast for tomorrow. Big offshore forecast for Sunday evening through Wednesday or Thursday. It’s going to be a long, tough week.  

 

Where are you, now?

Traffic is really fucked up now, 101 is closed, PCH is gridlocked. 

Yesterday I took the 15 to the 138, to the 14 to Newhall Ranch Road to the 126 to get home from Ontario...  glad I did..

They were closing PCH southbound at county line as I was heading back up...

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So the camp fire is 70,000 acres at 1030 this morning. That’s a little over 24 hours from the start. That’s about .7 acres per second....that’s per second....for 24 hours.

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9 minutes ago, nacradriver said:

Yesterday I took the 15 to the 138, to the 14 to Newhall Ranch Road to the 126 to get home from Ontario...  glad I did..

They were closing PCH southbound at county line as I was heading back up...

During the Painted Cave Fire in Santa Barbara in 1990, a friend started in Burbank.  Drove the 5 over the Grapevine, to highway 166 to Santa Maria, then down to Goleta.  I had to do similar during the La Conchita landslide. 

 

Stay safe!

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18 minutes ago, Point Break said:

So the camp fire is 70,000 acres at 1030 this morning. That’s a little over 24 hours from the start. That’s about .7 acres per second....that’s per second....for 24 hours.

Yeah, and this shit isn't getting any better either. 150,000 acres and Chico less than 5 miles away. Fuck me.

850208193_ScreenShot2018-11-09at4_38_58PM.thumb.png.38171fc19473c1d8137073dc0e4f7641.png

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this zerohedge article has a live link to channel 2 that has been broadcasting all day.

Unfricking believable..

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-09/malibu-evacuated-apocalyptic-fire-rages-75000-told-flee-ventura-county

 

 

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Latest approximation of structures lost on the Camp Fire is 6700+. 

I think East Chico is in trouble. That country in between is a lot of tall grass interspersed with brush. That fire driven by the current winds will continue to run that fuel bed at apocalyptic rates. I have never seen sustained rates of spread like these......ever......and I’m not exactly new.

Meanwhile, the Wolsey Fire has made it to Malibu. More trouble to come down here.

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Glad you aren't at this one PB - with something moving that fast I have no idea how to slow it or stop it.  I could run breaks with a dozer pretty well but that fire is going way faster than a dozer will on open flat ground.  My heart goes out to those folks. 

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17 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

Glad you aren't at this one PB - with something moving that fast I have no idea how to slow it or stop it.  I could run breaks with a dozer pretty well but that fire is going way faster than a dozer will on open flat ground.  My heart goes out to those folks. 

The one here in Malibu is very much like the 93 season with Laguna and Malibu along with a bunch of others. But the Camp Fire is just.......unprecedented, at least in my experiance. I’m not sure how I’d approach perimeter control. Clearly 100% of the effort is leapfrogging and skipping along ahead of the fire fighting delaying actions and trying to protect evacuations. Last estimate I saw said @150,000 evacuating so far. All the efforts are likely independent actions since getting a fire team there and a command structure set up and developing control objectives and strategies is not likely in the first 24 hours. Because of that, the first 24 -36 hours are a very dangerous period. Kinda glad I’m out of the game...but still, part of me......

Meanwhile.....below is Malibu late this afternoon.

A26A5909-DEEC-4ED4-8405-DECC74901BB3.jpeg

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7 hours ago, Point Break said:

Latest approximation of structures lost on the Camp Fire is 6700+. 

I think East Chico is in trouble. That country in between is a lot of tall grass interspersed with brush. That fire driven by the current winds will continue to run that fuel bed at apocalyptic rates. I have never seen sustained rates of spread like these......ever......and I’m not exactly new.

Meanwhile, the Wolsey Fire has made it to Malibu. More trouble to come down here.

Having been told to evacuate out of my house in Newport Beach in the Laguna Fire in '93 after watching the fire change direction and roar across what is now Newport Coast, I can't imagine what everyone in these monster fires is going through, especially losing their homes, businesses and sometimes life.  The Laguna fire was nothing compared to this.  One of my best friends lost everything in a matter of minutes last year in the Thomas fire.  She's still dealing with the effects, fortunately enough money to solve logistical problems.  Imagine living on the edge and having everything disappear.

Not to turn this into a political post, but a statement by Trump bears asking here of guys like you - he says that California's forest management is poor.

I have maybe spent as much time in Malibu in the last 15 years as I have in Newport Beach.  I watched one of my lifelong friend's home in Malibou Lake go up yesterday live on TV.  I've hiked all over that part of Malibu.  A little piece of you dies when you see places you know really well go up in flames, even from a distance.  From Saddle Peak to Kanan Dume to the beach is maybe my favorite part of the world.

Given that most of Malibu isn't what I'd consider "forest", what exactly does "forest management" mean in an area like Malibu where the vast majority of land is just scrub?  I get the idea of keeping a ring around your home free of as much vegetation as possible, but what on earth is anyone supposed to do about hundreds of square miles of brush?

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4 hours ago, PeterHuston said:

Having been told to evacuate out of my house in Newport Beach in the Laguna Fire in '93 after watching the fire change direction and roar across what is now Newport Coast, I can't imagine what everyone in these monster fires is going through, especially losing their homes, businesses and sometimes life.  The Laguna fire was nothing compared to this.  One of my best friends lost everything in a matter of minutes last year in the Thomas fire.  She's still dealing with the effects, fortunately enough money to solve logistical problems.  Imagine living on the edge and having everything disappear.

Not to turn this into a political post, but a statement by Trump bears asking here of guys like you - he says that California's forest management is poor.

I have maybe spent as much time in Malibu in the last 15 years as I have in Newport Beach.  I watched one of my lifelong friend's home in Malibou Lake go up yesterday live on TV.  I've hiked all over that part of Malibu.  A little piece of you dies when you see places you know really well go up in flames, even from a distance.  From Saddle Peak to Kanan Dume to the beach is maybe my favorite part of the world.

Given that most of Malibu isn't what I'd consider "forest", what exactly does "forest management" mean in an area like Malibu where the vast majority of land is just scrub?  I get the idea of keeping a ring around your home free of as much vegetation as possible, but what on earth is anyone supposed to do about hundreds of square miles of brush?

In the last 24 hours the 1993 Laguna Fire fell from the list of the top 20 most destructive fires in California history...

The Camp Fire in Paradise became the single most destructive fire ever yesterday with over 6,700 structures lost, bumping the Laguna Fire from the top 20 into the dustbowl of history! As of today, 7 of the most destructive 20 fires have occurred since 2017.

Why? Well, so far as forest management goes...that is a national issue but its multi factorial and I could write a book about it.....oh wait....many people have. Homes built easy to burn in the interface because its cheaper to build that way, climate/weather changes have us experiencing decades of drought and the resultant drought stressed forests that have become susceptible to disease and parasites leading to huge swaths of standing dead/dying trees, land management practices (including the prohibition on even responsible selective logging) that favored immediate suppression over wise use that prevented the occasional fires that kept the cycle of renewal from happening till the forests and brush are densely packed and unhealthy, air quality/conservation concerns that made controlled burns as a component of land management practices impossible to conduct.......those are just a few of the factors. Its not just Cali its an land management approach for half a century nationwide. Cali has more large fires because the climate and natural vegetation favor the development of those.......but its a bellweather for all of the land use agencies and construction industry....not an isolated experience.

By the way..............the fuel clearances we currently recommend are meaningless in the current burning conditions. When a fire can BURN AN ENTIRE TOWN to the ground its pretty clear a couple hundred feet of nonflammable vegetation isn't gonna do squat. Its better than no clearance as it will provide protection against the lower intensity local fires but when these monsters get rolling with big winds and plenty of dry fuel to feed on............

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Without getting into the politics while the fire is still burning, this is a particularly Californian problem.......A combination of NIMBY (not in my back yard) and over active "Environmental" groups all of whom prevent good fuels management practices.  After big fires in Arizona, a giant, multibillion dollar effort was started to log/burn the huge Ponderosa forests of the Mogollon Rim to return the land back to its true natural state, while mitigating the effects of wildfires in the future.  The project is well on its way to managing over 2.4 million acres of forest....and having some of that forest surounding my cabin, I can tell you the results are outstanding.

And interesting model that I suspect will be getting more interest even in California after this......https://www.grandcanyontrust.org/4fri

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, A.M.S. said:

Without getting into the politics while the fire is still burning, this is a particularly Californian problem.......A combination of NIMBY (not in my back yard) and over active "Environmental" groups all of whom prevent good fuels management practices.  After big fires in Arizona, a giant, multibillion dollar effort was started to log/burn the huge Ponderosa forests of the Mogollon Rim to return the land back to its true natural state, while mitigating the effects of wildfires in the future.  The project is well on its way to managing over 2.4 million acres of forest....and having some of that forest surounding my cabin, I can tell you the results are outstanding.

And interesting model that I suspect will be getting more interest even in California after this......https://www.grandcanyontrust.org/4fri

 

 

 

You’re right. Take it to PA.

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On 11/10/2018 at 12:04 PM, Point Break said:

In the last 24 hours the 1993 Laguna Fire fell from the list of the top 20 most destructive fires in California history...

The Camp Fire in Paradise became the single most destructive fire ever yesterday with over 6,700 structures lost, bumping the Laguna Fire from the top 20 into the dustbowl of history! As of today, 7 of the most destructive 20 fires have occurred since 2017.

Why? Well, so far as forest management goes...that is a national issue but its multi factorial and I could write a book about it.....oh wait....many people have. Homes built easy to burn in the interface because its cheaper to build that way, climate/weather changes have us experiencing decades of drought and the resultant drought stressed forests that have become susceptible to disease and parasites leading to huge swaths of standing dead/dying trees, land management practices (including the prohibition on even responsible selective logging) that favored immediate suppression over wise use that prevented the occasional fires that kept the cycle of renewal from happening till the forests and brush are densely packed and unhealthy, air quality/conservation concerns that made controlled burns as a component of land management practices impossible to conduct.......those are just a few of the factors. Its not just Cali its an land management approach for half a century nationwide. Cali has more large fires because the climate and natural vegetation favor the development of those.......but its a bellweather for all of the land use agencies and construction industry....not an isolated experience.

By the way..............the fuel clearances we currently recommend are meaningless in the current burning conditions. When a fire can BURN AN ENTIRE TOWN to the ground its pretty clear a couple hundred feet of nonflammable vegetation isn't gonna do squat. Its better than no clearance as it will provide protection against the lower intensity local fires but when these monsters get rolling with big winds and plenty of dry fuel to feed on............

Thanks very much for all this, as I suspected, it is a far more complex issue than some might think.

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9 hours ago, d'ranger said:

I think we are going to need a bigger shovel.  That shot really says it.

:lol:

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On 11/11/2018 at 11:36 AM, PeterHuston said:

Thanks very much for all this, as I suspected, it is a far more complex issue than some might think.

Interesting view on the issue

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckdevore/2018/07/30/californias-devastating-fires-are-man-caused-but-not-in-the-way-they-tell-us/?fbclid=IwAR3F1KpKm4EOd1hlYd2cgAaXnIxMnwHBp4hqd35E8RZsTpwilco4OQ8cElI#254b2ab470af

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23 minutes ago, silent bob said:

Largely correct. While the notion it is multi-factorial is still true, and the drought cycle - whatever the cause - is a huge contributor, the conservation efforts that pushed us away from "wise use" management concepts to leave it all alone (no burning, no logging etc) is a huge contributor to our fire problem. Just as clear cutting is poor management....so is no cutting. Here in So Cali the various deciduous and evergreen species all share a general need for sufficient "space" to grow in a healthy condition. That is (very generally) optimally around 30-60 trees per acre. We have forests that are currently standing at several hundred trees per acre. As a result of that and the drought they are stressed and unhealthy making them prime candidates for infestation by various bugs/beetles the combination of which lead to huge swaths of standing dead and dying trees...."standing red and dead" we call them. Add a significant brush under-story and a little weather and you have fires that simply cannot be stopped. The caveat to that view of forest health is I am not a forester...I worked with MANY foresters over the years in the development of pre-fire plans and post fire rehabilitation work. I learned those principles from that association and my personal observations over the years support those theories.

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2 hours ago, silent bob said:

And the reason this shit should be in PA? It's an opinion piece written by a guy who works for a conservative think tank funded by the fossil fuel industry.  It really can't get any more biased than that.  Nothing like leaving out a big part of the story. 

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The looters have arrived. Remorseless assholes that see no problem taking what little people may have left or from vacant unburnt homes. Parasites. Good thing for me I'm not a cop........."bang bang halt"!

https://www.sfgate.com/california-wildfires/article/Camp-Fire-Men-paradise-looting-forest-service-13385020.php

 

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31 minutes ago, Point Break said:

The looters have arrived. Remorseless assholes that see no problem taking what little people may have left or from vacant unburnt homes. Parasites. Good thing for me I'm not a cop........."bang bang halt"!

https://www.sfgate.com/california-wildfires/article/Camp-Fire-Men-paradise-looting-forest-service-13385020.php

 

Make it one bang. Save on bullets. Straight to the head.

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12 minutes ago, sunseeker said:

Make it one bang. Save on bullets. Hallopointe Straight to the head.

Juste tryeng to helpeng oute.                        :)

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1 hour ago, Point Break said:

The looters have arrived. Remorseless assholes that see no problem taking what little people may have left or from vacant unburnt homes. Parasites. Good thing for me I'm not a cop........."bang bang halt"!

https://www.sfgate.com/california-wildfires/article/Camp-Fire-Men-paradise-looting-forest-service-13385020.php

 

Moonbeam will probably give them a handshake and tickets for his new Choo Choo Train.

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I have taken care of any number of absolutely antisocial and some just plain evil people including a serial killer. It took every bit of humanity and discipline to care for some of them. I absolutely know if I had a gun in my hand and the slightest provocation.....I'd be very likely to pull the trigger. Thanks god I didn't choose that career path. I'm amazed at the self control most of the cops show. I mean they probably had to leave a perfectly good donut to corral the bad guy................sorry....I couldn't help myself. :lol:

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1 hour ago, Point Break said:

I have taken care of any number of absolutely antisocial and some just plain evil people including a serial killer. It took every bit of humanity and discipline to care for some of them. I absolutely know if I had a gun in my hand and the slightest provocation.....I'd be very likely to pull the trigger. Thanks god I didn't choose that career path. I'm amazed at the self control most of the cops show. I mean they probably had to leave a perfectly good donut to corral the bad guy................sorry....I couldn't help myself. :lol:

I just hoped that Jerry Brown would hold Charlie Manson’s hand.....

 

 

 

 

 

as he was he was getting the shit fried out of him in the electric chair.

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