Meat Wad

Brexit, WTF

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28 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Seems Javid's Dept is now the head of the Government's No Deal positive propoganda machine as well as producing Forward  Spending Budgets produced by Pinocchio.

Check the rules lads...and get ready to defend a deluge of false advertising complaints.

These idiots could not organise a kick in a stampede.

 

 

EEKvwrFXoAI5TxP.jpeg

EEKvwq_WsAIoctK.jpeg

That’s really going to help raise funds for the exchequer! 

Talk about clamouring for votes. Fuck sake. 

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English judges explain decision to reject prorogation challenge

Two hours after the Scottish appeal court ruled that Boris Johnson’s advice to the Queen to suspend parliament was “unlawful”, three of the most senior English judges explained why they had come to a diametrically opposed conclusion.

Last week, the lord chief justice, Lord Burnett of Maldon, the master of the rolls, Sir Terence Etherton, and the president of the Queen’s bench division, Dame Victoria Sharp, dismissed the challenge by the legal campaigner and businesswoman Gina Miller.

On Wednesday, the judges gave the full reasons for that decision in a 24-page judgment, which concluded with sentence: “In our view, the decision of the prime minister to advise Her Majesty the Queen to prorogue parliament is not justiciable in Her Majesty’s courts.”

 

Will that give BJ enough wiggle room to not call parliament back until after appeal?

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This could be very significant. @handelsblatt reports that German finance ministry and conservative German MEPs starting (finally) to consider European deposit insurance, crucial to breaking banks-sovereigns doom loop that still jeopardises the euro-zone.
------------------
With Lagarde at the wheel, and Germany having problems, this is a very important moment... and more important then Brexit on the financial side. Germany talked a lot about the EU, but kept their banking closed.

In other words, if this happens even a hard Brexit is worth it.

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A recently retired Supreme Court justice ...Commenting on the Scottish ruling, Jonathan Sumption told BBC Radio 4: "What I think this illustrates is that if you, as a government, do something sufficiently outrageous -- and politically the prorogation of Parliament was politically outrageous -- you tempt judges to push the boundaries out, and it looks from the summary as if that is what the Scottish judges have done."

"My own view is that this is a political issue, not a legal one, and that the case can only be resolved politically," he said.

He also noted that if the Supreme Court were to agree with the Scottish decision, it would be a significant change in how the British constitution is interpreted.

"I'm not going to give a prediction, but I think that if they were to decide that the Scottish judges were right, they would be making really quite significant changes to a correct understanding of our constitution because the issue is the propriety of the legal motives, and that seems to me to be a fundamentally political issue," Sumption said.

But he added: "I have no doubt that politically this was a disgraceful thing to do and what tends to happen is that you change the law in response to a sufficiently appalling example of abuse."

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2 hours ago, KC375 said:

Will that give BJ enough wiggle room to not call parliament back until after appeal?

Concurrent appeals on both to be heard next Tuesday. Also I'm not across detail but both cases appear different albeit both about lawfulness. 

Scottish Court ruling was about "misleading" the Queen (so in turn the Parliament) to think that her prorogation was simply to end and commence a new term with a Queens speech in normal manner, nothing to do with an ulterior motive ie Brexit. This ruling on the lawfulness hinges on the "misleading" aspect.

Supreme Court ruling a judicial review of the "reasons" or lawfulness of using prorogation for an "ulterior motive" ie Brexit. They said even if that's true, it's out of their hands: prorogation can be used for "political advantage"."Misleading" aspect doesn't appear to get a look in. See attachment.

Then the aspect of yesterday's Parliamentary ruling for Govt to cough up the stuff that the court hasn't seen ie encrypted texts, private emails etc.

There must be legal forums going mad turning this inside out. 

 

EELwT8BWkAMITKV.jpeg

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1 hour ago, KC375 said:

Will that give BJ enough wiggle room to not call parliament back until after appeal?

It isn't clear whether he is needed to call it back because, arguably, it never legally went away.  True? well some lawyers are making that argument. Interesting times.

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15 minutes ago, dogwatch said:

It isn't clear whether he is needed to call it back because, arguably, it never legally went away.  True? well some lawyers are making that argument. Interesting times.

Bit hard to justify it has "gone away" when both rulings are subject to concurrent appeals to be heard next Tuesday.

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Just read the Yellowhammer report, it is the stuff we already know.
And the whole impact of No Deal in 5 pages. You are kidding me... the AA papers are longer.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831199/20190802_Latest_Yellowhammer_Planning_assumptions_CDL.pdf

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What's different about the new Yellowhammer document that the government has just published compared with the one I got hold of last month?
The heading. What did the version I had say? BASE SCENARIO
Now what does the new one say? HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions

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24 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Just read the Yellowhammer report, it is the stuff we already know.
And the whole impact of No Deal in 5 pages. You are kidding me... the AA papers are longer.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831199/20190802_Latest_Yellowhammer_Planning_assumptions_CDL.pdf

If this represents the state of the art of UK public sector planning, the UK is fucked.

8 opening assumptions and 20 numbered assumptions (1 redacted)  not very astute assertions about the state of things. Brilliant observations like:

Big business are better prepared than small businesses

Individual EU member states will not be particularly sympathetic to the UK

No deals will be in place

Shit communication mean people are lossing interest and intensity in this Brexit prep thing

People get the flu in winter and do their christmas shopping in the lead up to Christmas

With 50-85% of HGV not properly prepared there will be delays in border crossing

...

Don't need no secondary education to figure this shit out

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And this are the assumptions they use to prepare for No Deal.

At least in the paper it is stated UK will be a 3rd country to the EU.

BJ keeps talking the negotiations are going great...

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Michael Gove then: "An old document"
Michael Gove now: The "most recent complete iteration"

Really the lies...

PS, worst case scenario is called Black Swan, and never published or leaked. According the journo that got the leaked paper a month ago.

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From CNN

Boris Johnson is having a rough old time. The man who pledged to clean up the UK's Brexit mess and finally leave the European Union -- do or die, remember -- has instead spent his first weeks in office being humiliated.

That seems the general view of most news media. At some stage that has to really undermine his electability.

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This Yellow is with the EU contingency plans for aviation, finance etc in place. Black Swan is without, WTO exit.
And disregards United Nations rules and official quota's being contracted till 2020 on Fisheries.
And nothing on stopping illegal immigrants crossing the Channel, they had a record day, 86 caught..

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At least it shows project Fear was not far off.
The government can not keep on saying No Deal is no problem or the problems will be small. But they will.
But:
The government has refused to comply with Parliament’s request to make public internal communications between the prime minister’s top advisers over Operation Yellowhammer and prorogation.

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More endorsements for Brexit:

The British Medical Association (BMA) has said that the “alarming” Yellowhammer document confirms its concerns over the impact of a no-deal Brexit.

BMA Council chairman Dr Chaand Nagpaul told the Press Association:

 

Here we see in black and white the Government warning of disruption to vital medicine supplies, a higher risk of disease outbreaks due to veterinary medicine supply issues, and UK pensioners in the EU being unable to access healthcare from 1 November if there is a no-deal Brexit.

The warnings around social care providers folding within months of Brexit day are particularly concerning, having a huge impact on our most vulnerable patients and the wider health service in the depths of winter.”

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If you are older and on medicines (3/4 comes from the EU) and reliable on a social care provider you would think twice for a No Deal.
Happy Xmas. But democracy and will of the people are more important. A marginal advisory ref based on lies is important enough to push through with unlawful declared measures and lies and political shenanigans.

The British Medical Association;
Here we see in black and white the Government warning of disruption to vital medicine supplies.
The warnings around social care providers folding within months of Brexit day are particularly concerning, having a huge impact on our most vulnerable patients and the wider health service in the depths of winter.

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Last week @Jacob_Rees_Mogg accused @djnicholl of scaremongering when he raised fears over potentially fatal shortages of medicines in event of No Deal. Rees-Mong accused him of being irresponsible, scaremongering and compared him to the shamed anti-vaxxer Andrew Wakefield.

Should he not quit his job now ?

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Are there no rules for German pasports ?
Being a lying oof should be enough to cancel those.

If i was French I would not allow him in on a visa after Brexit. Danger for public health.

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Dont panic @LeoV. There's now the direct shipping route from Ireland to Belgium. Medicines from Ireland won't have to go via the UK

 

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1 hour ago, LeoV said:

Even closer  :)

You better get your kaartpasser out, Popeye.  ;)

And besides, the Belgians have more and cheaper medicines, but you probably know that...

 

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Closer to me, and no Belgian medicines are not cheaper, a myth.
I can check if my GP describes the cheapest option;
www.medicijnkosten.nl
One I use can cost from 0.29 a tablet to 2.20 Euro. Same medicine, different manufacturer.
And non of my medicines are from the UK or Ireland :)

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2 hours ago, LeoV said:

Are there no rules for German pasports ?
Being a lying oof should be enough to cancel those.

If i was French I would not allow him in on a visa after Brexit. Danger for public health.

Ahhhhhhh 

Sounds like Farage has or perhaps is planning to have interests in companies that do customs clearance. Given the fucked up red tape the UK has for other aspects of government agencies, customs is probably no business and clearance agencies will do a booming trade.

Fucker... 

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The BBC panorama program should have done a program investigating the potential financial benefits interested parties have from a No Deal or even deal Brexit. Maybe it might wake up a few idiots like Wayne to the fact that they are being conned. 

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2 minutes ago, hoppy said:

The BBC panorama program should have done a program investigating the potential financial benefits interested parties have from a No Deal or even deal Brexit. Maybe it might wake up a few idiots like Wayne to the fact that they are being conned. 

The BBC is a spineless news source and is funded by a government mandated collection fee. 

It has many great journalists, but it stopped being an independent news source well over a decade ago due to its editorial beliefs or pressure from the government. 

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12 minutes ago, mad said:

The BBC is a spineless news source and is funded by a government mandated collection fee. 

It has many great journalists, but it stopped being an independent news source well over a decade ago due to its editorial beliefs or pressure from the government. 

ohh :(

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Boris now sends out his team of dogwhisters to spread the message the "Judiciary should butt out of politics and are biased".  

He just informed the UK people that Politicians should be above the Law and Judges in the majority of UK cases (Govt V Those Charged) are prone to bias either for or against the Govt. Well done dickhead.

The UK plumbs a new low every day.

 

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Seems Downing Street cocked Prorogation up on account a Declaration "supporting the reasons for Prorogation" (good or bad) was never provided. It couldn't be provided as no Civil Servant presumably from the Govt Legal Department could sign one knowing what they knew, without ending up in Jail 

Explains why Government have ignored Parliamentary direction to reveal all behind Prorogation under the bullshit of privacy etc of those involved.

There are ex British colonies in the darkest corners of Africa that behave better than this.

 

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Jack,

I think you owe Moggies an apology for posting this photo

 

On 9/4/2019 at 12:30 PM, jack_sparrow said:

As for this photo....the cynic in me says it was staged to fuel the outrage and to bring on the election you want, but don't want to show you want it.

JRM.jpg.487699acc4f32c53c79790b8856f0e5c.jpg

as Boris points out at 0:42, they are working flat out trying to get a proper NI solution and clearly Boris had his best man on the job.

3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

 

 

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^^^^^^ Yeah Boris is doing his "IPad connect with the people thing" spinning out election spin. After reading that article in post #10459 it seems it is probably all scripted with make believe people. 

Anyway wouldn't you think he would would be reassuring the public they have contingency plans well in hand for mitigating the Yellow Hammer Report No Deal outcomes. Maybe that is one lie too far?

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10 hours ago, LeoV said:

PS, worst case scenario is called Black Swan, and never published or leaked.

Aspects of Black Swan are very scary. A lot of it is known by many outside Government who had input into its preperation. They were made to sign "non-disclosure" agreements.

For instance “the multiple up-rate in demand” for customs declarations has a very good chance of crashing the new Customs Declaration System (CDS). This is a system that has only just started to come on line, was orginaly designed without Brexit in mind, was then upscaled and this is where you need sit down..today it is still in beta mode.

That crash will cripple all cargo ports in the UK, air and sea. 

Yellow Hammer only looked at HGV Channel Straits traffic delays assuming CDS is working fine and indicated a low probability of HGV delays outside Kent.

It didn't address at all impacts on "other than HGV traffic ports". That impact is described in Black Swan which is under lock and key and so of no use to anyone for planning purposes.

90% of UK exports and imports to countries outside the EU go through those non HGV ports. The top 4 are Felixstowe, London Gateway, Southampton and Liverpool Superport.

The Government know this so there is no excuse. It will be there for all to see if they proceed with a No Deal. The fuckers are already trying to pass the blame onto business. 

EENHIU0X4AAqJ38.png

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11 hours ago, KC375 said:

At some stage that has to really undermine (BoJo's) electability.

Oddly enough according to polls, so far not, because Brexit has become a quasi-religious belief. This resilience to mere reality is not unprecedented e.g. Trumps supporters still love him.

BoJo is also blessed by facing the worst Labour leader in history. And yes I remember Michael Foot.

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

The never ending tale of UK Front Pages. Little wonder people are confused and angry.

Spotted: Chancellor Sajid Javid having lunch with Rupert Murdoch at The Stafford hotel in Mayfair yesterday.

Source Politico, not a gossip magazine.

Over here in this case of a lurking constitutional crises the head of government is to be expected to give a press conference. Within a few hours.
Or he would be criticized by all papers except one, and conclusion of most voters would be that he is guilty.
And the multi party system would be under strain, as al governing parties will be asked fundamental questions like;
will you stay in a coalition that disrespect the law or are you quitting ? Coalition would be under a gigantic strain.

In the UK the PM just goes silent. With a spokesman and a few cabinet members defending him. (and in this situation making the case worse)
 

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If you still have Boris (with the help of EU money) trying to shut the DUP up with the thought of bringing NI closer to the UK to compensate for being left behind with EU regulations running around in your mind. Interestingly a Nth Ireland bridge was contained in the 2015 DUP manifesto.

Maybe Boris should tell Arlene that Nth Ireland is not the only game in town.

This article from 6 years ago 4 Options Across the Irish Sea when at that time bridges like the Danyang-Kunshan at 102 miles (not all over water) didn't exist.

_69280153_irish_sea_tunnel_624.gif

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Merkel speaks, almost a copy of Ivan Rogers papers from way back;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/11/angela-merkel-stresses-danger-of-britain-becoming-singapore-on-thames-no-deal

And add to that the EU has done their own Yellowhammer research, and know how difficult it will be to go for No Deal.
The EU has their own red lines too. The EU knows No Deal still can happen, even after an extension.
That is the reason of BJ claiming they need the No Deal on the table (before 31 OCt) to get a better deal which brakes down EU red lines is complete BS.

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13 hours ago, KC375 said:

That seems the general view of most news media. At some stage that has to really undermine his electability.

 

1 hour ago, dogwatch said:

Oddly enough according to polls, so far not, because Brexit has become a quasi-religious belief. 

Putting aside there is a poll just out that has Tory's and Labour just about level pegging, maybe Laura K has the answer? 

Is Boris Johnson profiting from dividing?

I think Boris is working to the formula that he can get away with one major fuck up per day that ordinarily just one would end the parliamentary career of mere mortals.

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44 minutes ago, LeoV said:

That is the reason of BJ claiming they need the No Deal on the table (before 31 OCt) to get a better deal which brakes down EU red lines is complete BS.

Isn't No Deal providing negotiation leverage just complete bullshit.

Boris looking to do mini deals with individual states, thinking that there is no consequence of not going down a "win win" path and avoiding an array of mutual commitments, many which other Nations have today in their EU FTA's and even just in their formal Trading Arrangements.

He somehow has in his mind the UK is superior to the rest of the world is all I can think drives that thinking.

The end result of No Deal is years down the track the UK will at best end up with (as May understood and repeated there) is say a “Canada minus minus”, potentially including tariffs on some goods having regard to advantage of proximity and restricted supply to EU of Services, that is 4 times larger than goods exports for the UK.

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It is weird, how more  the UK proves that they are totally in control over everything regarding a No Deal, the better that can be used in a negotiation.
Lack of openness on this just hints on that it is not the case. It would have boosted UK confidence by voters, it would have supported the Pound, would have taken away project Fear etc. Government just says, trust me.

As Dogwatch says it is a case of religion, but still people denounce faith or switch religion. Most will stay put though and do not question their belief.
But only a 2d ref can show that. It does not take a lot of people to switch the outcome. But it is far of the horizon.

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37 minutes ago, LeoV said:

It is weird, how more  the UK proves that they are totally in control over everything regarding a No Deal, the better that can be used in a negotiation.
Lack of openness on this just hints on that it is not the case.

What is even weirder is absolutely nothing has been done to advance what May had in place in Feb/March in case a No Deal occured in March. Then compounded by in general EU states are better prepared for No Deal.

You may see in the press shortly in response to release of Yellow Hammer the use of mobile "pop-up stations" beside roadways & holding areas away from UK Channel ports/tunnel (which acknowledges HGV's will be parked up) for transporter (not the exporter entity customs declarations etc) documentation.

Export Documentation Column One (today) to Last Column (Brexit No Deal)

Note preferred origin and movement certificates remove trade friction.

IMG_20190830_012422.thumb.jpg.5751b2a756ced53ea4a7b66ba9a260f7.jpg

France settled on having this contingency available last year, noting EU to UK direction is not the big problem, it is on the other side in the UK.

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IF BJ plan was No Deal, then there must have been some work done, but lack of openness seems to indicate it is harder then they thought.
Did hear that Pop up story, everything will be fine in Dover and Kent. From an ex Customs guy. But it was a bit wonky (pop up) and nothing about exports to the EU.

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11 minutes ago, LeoV said:

But it was a bit wonky (pop up) and nothing about exports to the EU.

UK Pop ups are for exports to EU but only transport/bill of lading doc, (not customs etc) and which are actually needed today being in the EU. There is actually no such thing as a truely frictionless border.

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1 hour ago, LeoV said:

IF BJ plan was No Deal, then there must have been some work done, but lack of openness seems to indicate it is harder then they thought.

...

BJ doesn't do 'plans' or 'work'...

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Even no plan is a plan. Or winging it, or hoping for the best.

EU sources on Labour: "“They want us to negotiate a ‘credible’ deal and then they will campaign against it? That is mad. How can we negotiate with people like that? Their divisions and magical thinking are as bad as anything the Conservatives produced.”
Nick Cohen from The Times.

ITV news;
Labour MP @EmmaLewellBuck told @PaulBrandITV why she would choose the Brexit Party over the Lib Dems to go into a Brexit coalition. Watch the full episode here: https://www.itv.com/news/2019-09-12/acting-prime-minister-emma-lewell-buck-on-hunger-fights-dyspraxia-and-siding-with-the-brexit-party-over-the-lib-dems/ 

-----------------------
Bonkers on all sides.

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Northern Ireland court throws out claim that no-deal Brexit would breach Good Friday Agreement.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/uk-regions/northern-ireland/news/106487/northern-ireland-court-throws-out-claim-no-deal

In his written statement, he said: “I consider the characterisation of the subject matter of these proceedings as inherently and unmistakably political to be beyond plausible dispute.

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17 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Northern Ireland court throws out claim that no-deal Brexit would breach Good Friday Agreement.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/uk-regions/northern-ireland/news/106487/northern-ireland-court-throws-out-claim-no-deal

In his written statement, he said: “I consider the characterisation of the subject matter of these proceedings as inherently and unmistakably political to be beyond plausible dispute.

No-deal won't breach GFA, but it will hinder UK's negotiation positions _a_lot_ when they must do everything in a way that keeps the border open... that might even be impossible, but that isn't problem for the court?

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6 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

EENHIU0X4AAqJ38.png

what strikes me in this document is that on and off a sly little blame game is being played, best example is the above line where it says "limited space in French ports" but what about the space in British ports huh ? going by the remarks of my british neighbour, each time when he comes sailing he takes the Dover ferry, and his comment went like : preparations and space on British side ? zero , preparations and space on Calais side ? wow

but it goes along with the fact that the British systematically try  to push the effort needed for a fluid brexit out to the continent ... british ports want continent ports to do the job, british customs expect the Calais customs to do the job, in an interesting -up your alley Jack- article this weekend in our financial times, titled "Zeebrugge, the UK's pantry", a director of one ot the main handling companies to export stuff to the UK, working for Lidl, Asda et al mentioned that the British clients started stockpiling for the march brexit, but then they don't stockpile anymore but want their suppliers here on the continent to stockpile for them or asked to assure they can deliver on time. When asked if they were prepared, the answer went like "we are totally prepared for all possible brexit scenario's and all the paperwork it would envolve, but what we can NOT control is that if trucks get queued up, that's out of our control"

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Has anybody been on the german-polish border at around 1995-1996?

I remember that all trucks had to wait min. 24 to 48 hours to get to the other side. 

That was the normal situation, with everything in place for years and all truck drivers having all papers and stuff ready. Then you should ask again how long it would get trucks to get over the UK-french border, if many are unprepared, and a completely new system has to be implemented... 

 

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I lived in Prague from 1994 to 1998 - exactly the same situation on the German-Czech border.

This generation of politicians have basically grown up in the European Union, they have never actually experienced a real border crossing, apart from lines in an airport.

They haven't got a clue what an actual crossing looks like

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55 minutes ago, jgh66 said:

Has anybody been on the german-polish border at around 1995-1996?

I remember that all trucks had to wait min. 24 to 48 hours to get to the other side. 

That was the normal situation, with everything in place for years and all truck drivers having all papers and stuff ready. Then you should ask again how long it would get trucks to get over the UK-french border, if many are unprepared, and a completely new system has to be implemented... 

 

similar experience similar period, driving from Vienna to Zakopane, Polish Tatra resort, coming up the Slovak-Polish border there was this huge line of trucks, so I think we are f#cked but our Polish guide simply told me to get on the opposite lane, pass all the trucks, wiggle our way through the customs gate and within seconds we were through...not so for the trucks

the french customs action a couple of months ago, now that was a bit of an eyeopener ... but hey Brits, has that pub already been installed on Manston airfield ?

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1 hour ago, Albatros said:

what strikes me in this document is that on and off a sly little blame game is being played, best example is the above line where it says "limited space in French ports" but what about the space in British ports huh ? going by the remarks of my british neighbour, each time when he comes sailing he takes the Dover ferry, and his comment went like : preparations and space on British side ? zero , preparations and space on Calais side ? wow

Your friend is dead right and no spare space on Dover side as terrain is huge constraint and Brexit planning is shit. Two examples where the UK's only planning is to "plan for failure."

Much has been said about using the old Manston airfield outside Ramsgate but a 20 mile detour north of Dover that can accommodate 6,000 trucks?? Industry has slammed it.

1637268978_images-2019-08-31T173945_378.jpeg.807f7d86c84eb03e5997232c6a6b3177.jpeg

Then Portsmouth by Cross Channel volume very small cousin to Dover and just down the road. The UK Govt say Portsmouth will accommodate the "overload" to be experienced at Dover. Yet not one £ has been spent by the Govt at Portsmouth to accomodate that. Local/Port authority has spent a little bit on some logistical stuff. They don't even have a back up plan at Portsmouth other than using the road in as a parking lot. UK Defence own the only land nearby as "failure plan" similiar to Manston, but Defence refuses to give it up. Maybe they are reserving it to shoot rockets at the EU? 

By comparison Calais have plans first conceived 15 years ago to double capacity as shown in Calais Port 2015 that will be completed in a couple of years. There is an interesting story attached to this relating to Brexit which I will leave for another day.

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From BBC;
UK officials say yesterday's talks between David Frost and the European Commission were serious, but EU27 diplomats were told the British proposals were "aspirational" and "concepts" at a debrief this morning. (1)
UK proposed N Ireland and Ireland be separate customs and regulatory territories. Customs checks would take place in business premises not on the border. There'd be an "enhanced market surveillance mechanism" for industrial goods using surveillance, data and tough penalties. (2)
The UK reiterated there could be a commitment to an open border in the Withdrawal Agreement with the details agreed in the transition period -- which British officials insisted would end in 2020 and not be extended. (3)
Again there was a discussion about security and defence in the Political Declaration, with the UK asking for additional references to sovereingty which EU officials interpret as a "looser" relationship than the one Theresa May pursued.

--------------------------
So Ireland has to pay for UK independence... does the UK want them to veto an extension ?

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12 minutes ago, LeoV said:

So Ireland has to pay for UK independence... does the UK want them to veto an extension ?

Ireland has been paying for English foreign policy since 1169.

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3 hours ago, Albatros said:

in an interesting -up your alley Jack- article this weekend in our financial times, titled "Zeebrugge, the UK's pantry", a director of one ot the main handling companies to export stuff to the UK, working for Lidl, Asda et al mentioned that the British clients started stockpiling for the march brexit, but then they don't stockpile anymore but want their suppliers here on the continent to stockpile for them or asked to assure they can deliver on time. When asked if they were prepared, the answer went like "we are totally prepared for all possible brexit scenario's and all the paperwork it would envolve, but what we can NOT control is that if trucks get queued up, that's out of our control"

The EU to UK leg should not involve much delay on EU side. This is because the UK have a cunning "express plan" for tarriffs/VAT which basically looks like this called Transitional Simplified Procedures (TSP's) that will be reviewed after 3 - 6 months.

The big logistical problem however is going to be time getting backloaded HGV's back to the EU with gridlock on the UK side where one small hiccup ricochets through this entire "closed loop" or "conveyor belt" and therefore the "supply chain" of both the EU and UK using any two ports.

Note: I will do a seperate post on this subject at some time in relation to HMRC's estimate of the cost to UK businesses under ‘No Deal’ of £18 billion per year, compared to £700 million pa with a Deal. The Govt/HMRC have been asked by various Westminister Select Committees to provide an itemised breakdown of its figures and the Governments plans for supporting businesses in assessing the additional costs they will face under a ‘No Deal’ scenario and comprehensive details intended for mitigating the impact on the supply chain. There has been no response and won't be now that this Parliamentary term has ended and Parliament is suspended.

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Fact is either you are in a common market and customs union or you will have a hard border somewhere. There is no way around. EU members have given up internal border controls, instead EU outside borders have to be protected. Border between Ireland and NI is a border between 27 countries and a third country. The UK guys have no idea what a border like this looks like, maybe they should get into a truck and bring some stuff to Russia. 

By the way - what happens if Ireland takes 10000s of EU syrian refugees that then just walk over the border into UK(NI)?  Will EU take them back? Propably no. Will UK keep the border open ? 

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8 minutes ago, jgh66 said:

By the way - what happens if Ireland takes 10000s of EU syrian refugees that then just walk over the border into UK(NI)?  Will EU take them back? Propably no. Will UK keep the border open ? 

I'm pretty sure Boris's technological border solution has that covered.

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55 minutes ago, LeoV said:

There'd be an "enhanced market surveillance mechanism" for industrial goods using surveillance, data and tough penalties.

I think Irish cigarette smugglers worked out some time ago not to advertise on Facebook and eBay.

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41 minutes ago, KC375 said:

Ireland has been paying for English foreign policy since 1169.

Norman

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43 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

43 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

The EU to UK leg should not involve much delay on EU side. This is because the UK have a cunning "express plan" for tarriffs/VAT which basically looks like this called Transitional Simplified Procedures (TSP's) that will be reviewed after 3 - 6 months.

The big logistical problem however is going to be time getting backloaded HGV's back to the EU with gridlock on the UK side where one small hiccup ricochets through this entire "closed loop" or "conveyor belt" and therefore the "supply chain" of both the EU and UK using these two ports.

Note: I will do a seperate post on this subject at some time in relation HMRC's estimate of the cost to UK businesses under ‘No Deal’ of £18 billion per year, compared to £700 million with a Deal. The Govt/HMRC have asked by various Westminister Select Committees to provide an itemised breakdown of its figures and the Governments plans for supporting businesses in assessing the additional costs they will face under a ‘no deal’ scenario and limiting the impact on the supply chain There has been no response.

 

 

From Yellowhammer para 3

HGVs could face maximum delays of 1.5-2.5 days before being able to cross the border. HGVs that are caught up in congestion in the UK will be unable to return to the EU to collect another load and a proportion of logistics firms may decide to avoid the route..

So obviously shipping costs will go way up – no one is going to hang around for a few days at the border unless they are being paid for it. If they are not being paid enough for it they will take their logistics services elsewhere exactly when they are most needed by the UK.

{separately what bullshit planning has a “maximum” delay of 1.5 – 2.5, by definition that is 2.5 days maximum and the 1.5 BS is just stuffed in there to disguise how bad the maximum is}

I did not see in the Yellowhammer assumptions to the make an estimate of the impact of a dramatic reduction in supply of transport. Currently a HGV should be able to do one round trip in a day. I’m sure not all current HGV do one day roundtrips...let’s say they average 2.5 days then a border delay of 2.5 days immediately cut your transport capacity in half. The actual effect could be greater as capacity may get withdrawn until prices adjust enough to cover the extra time.

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8 minutes ago, The Q said:

Norman

Agreed, I was being a bit cavalier with details. But since it only preceded time immemorial by 20 years I thought I could get away with it.

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11 minutes ago, KC375 said:

From Yellowhammer para 3

HGVs could face maximum delays of 1.5-2.5 days before being able to cross the border. HGVs that are caught up in congestion in the UK will be unable to return to the EU to collect another load and a proportion of logistics firms may decide to avoid the route..

So obviously shipping costs will go way up – no one is going to hang around for a few days at the border unless they are being paid for it. If they are not being paid enough for it they will take their logistics services elsewhere exactly when they are most needed by the UK.

A refrigerated HGV stand down cost is £400/500 per day.

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9 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

A refrigerated HGV stand down cost is £400/500 per day.

I expect that will go up.

I'm not trying to be part of "project fear" but I'd expect some unpleasant feedback loops.

If the border delays are of the order of the length of the current round trip then HGV capacity will effectively fall by 50% overnight. How will the market react? Prices will go WAY up as supply will be initially be relatively inelastic (yes for a price you can transfer from other routes etc. but long run it depends on adding capacity - getting drivers and additional HGVs). Some demand will go away (shrinking the economy/trade by some degree) but probably not 50% so logistics cost will go up by the ~ £1,000 per trip for current stand down costs PLUS a supply shortage premium...

 

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7 minutes ago, KC375 said:

I'm not trying to be part of "project fear" but I'd expect some unpleasant feedback loops.

One feedback loop not thought about by UK is HGV's largely driven by eastern Europeans many who don't speak or read English. That could be interesting. Then again with Home Secretary's state of mind they might elect to find a new profession or stay on their side of the ditch.

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11 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Probably the page which is more relevant than the Judge dogwhistlers.

IMG_20190912_144021.jpg

That picture again. Best caption so far was "grandson scam".

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I thought the golden rule was you could only use an Interview Distraction once. This one again when cornered about Queen and Yellow Hammer.

“I [was talking yesterday] about building a bridge from Stranraer in Scotland to Larne in Northern Ireland,” he said. “That would be very good. It would only cost about £15bn.”

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I went looking today for some fresh and authorative material about Boris to try and understand what is driving him over this cliff. Starting with this.

15 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

If you limit yourself to clicking one link on this entire thread click this and read it. 

It is fucking scary.

Then this great find which actually comes from the other side of the orange in Sydney Australia and fresh as a daisy. This guy is of some repute, known Boris for 3 decades incl employing him and he is a hardcore Tory Brexiteer.

Note it was recorded early Monday morning UK time at this Australian Think Tank function so events of this week we're yet to unfold.

Includes excellent Brexit overview but if you only interested in Boris go to 31.00.

Note: When he said if referendum result was 52/48 against, Brexitters would have graciously folded their tent unlike Remainers. I yelled at him "what about Farage (who he credits with referendum outcome, not Cummings) when pre ballot polls showed 52/48 and Farage vowed it wasn't over."

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22 hours ago, LeoV said:

At least it shows project Fear was not far off.
The government can not keep on saying No Deal is no problem or the problems will be small. But they will.
But:
The government has refused to comply with Parliament’s request to make public internal communications between the prime minister’s top advisers over Operation Yellowhammer and prorogation.

Anyone with half a brain knew this. Unfortunately our country has many people with less than half a brain...

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Shows critical thinking is not the strong point. The hardcore brexit conspiracy loudmouths and propagandists are followed to easy by too many.

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Anyway the Dover and trade stuff will only last a few months to a year. By then orders are dropping due to lower pound and higher costs of products, diverted trade inside the EU because it is more profitable then unruly UK. Trading in a Pound not backed up by EU policy will induce risks. Rules of origin will hurt UK exports even more. And talking about diverting from EU standards will really help to dry up export. Being a 3rd country sucks. But problem solved. That is why extra parking places in Port of Rotterdam are temporary.

NI and financial services are bigger worries.

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5 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

A refrigerated HGV stand down cost is £400/500 per day.

A shitload more when that whole load of beef spoils in the heat! 

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6 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

And make a lot of people feel a little bit better to realise there maybe an option going forward.......of course that’s dependent on people waking the fuck up before sleep walking off the cliff. 

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3 hours ago, The Main Man said:

Anyone with half a brain knew this. Unfortunately our country has many people with less than half a brain...

By the law of averages half the population have an IQ level below the accepted norm. 

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