Meat Wad

Brexit, WTF

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2 hours ago, rgeek said:

Meh, his world view begins with English nationalism ("what's going on back in England right now" feckin' eajit) and everything else fits around that.

He’s an odious, pompous prick. 

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5 hours ago, Knut Grotzki said:

Interesting read. No budget regarding additional costs for translation? EU might decide to stop using English as standard language for documents to be provided.

Probably not. It looks like the one lasting contribution the UK has made to the EU is to provide one common working language - BAD ENGLISH.

Interestingly, "studies have shown" that native English speakers are less effective communicators in English than non-native English speakers. (mother tong English speakers spend too much time with fancy words, abbreviations, convoluted sentence structures, puns and other artistic embellishment. English as second language speakers focus on understanding and being understood).

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5 hours ago, Fiji Bitter said:

And earlier you said: "However Times talks DUP party sources so maybe DUP have a internal bunfight happening?"

 It sounds like you where absolutely right!  The Times must be realising that too, by now.

Parties splitting up all around now...

 

Fiji keep that up and Wayne will be back having me working for The Times. We are now into "non-denial denial" territory.

Don't forget who lit the match to this story and why as I outline below.

 

Times is paywalled so here is an extract where they now allege splits in the DUP and add more very specific material.

Despite Ms Foster’s insistence, party sources now say that they could accept regulatory divergence with the “consent” of Northern Irish democratic institutions. They made clear that this would not require the Northern Ireland executive and assembly, which collapsed more than two years ago, to be up and running before October 31.

“That could happen in the transition period,” they said, adding they were “positive” that a deal could be done. The agreement could find favour in Brussels as the EU is most concerned about Northern Ireland becoming a back door into its single market for non-compliant goods if the UK signed trade deals with countries such as the US.

The sources motives are obvious not wanting to go over the cliff with Arlene.

However I will go one step further and say Downing Sts fingerprints are also all over this too (say by bringing the unnamed DUP source and the Times together with some direction) for producing a spin operation against the DUP designed to take the heat off Boris by reducing the impression of a united opposition against him plus allow him to appear as the new champion of a Deal and negotiator extraordinaire.

And with the bridge diversion, all masterfull. This is all straight out of Sun Tzu's handbook (Martian edition).

IMG_20190905_210138.thumb.jpg.394d63564c9ab2f6aa9d5b1612abdc79.jpg

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8 hours ago, Knut Grotzki said:

Interesting read. No budget regarding additional costs for translation? EU might decide to stop using English as standard language for documents to be provided.

 

2 hours ago, KC375 said:

Probably not. It looks like the one lasting contribution the UK has made to the EU is to provide one common working language - BAD ENGLISH.

I mentioned upthread the aspect of UK Ports not taking into account in their planning for the predominance of Eastern European drivers, many who neither speak or talk English.

Dover for instance doesn't even have a online English driver assist guide today. Calais on the other hand has this Information for Lorry Drivers available in 8 languages.

Preperations either side of the ditch are like chalk and cheese, noting on the French side they also have added burden of stopping refugees hitching a ride. Then again after Brexit that burden may shift to the other side with half the UK wanting to escape.

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On 9/3/2019 at 3:26 PM, LeoV said:

BJ lost 22 MP's in one night. He is now powerless unless an election takes place and he can replace them.

The 22 should start its own party to change the constitution :)

The dogballs Party?

 

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16 minutes ago, Raz'r said:
On 9/3/2019 at 11:26 PM, LeoV said:

BJ lost 22 MP's in one night. He is now powerless unless an election takes place and he can replace them.

The 22 should start its own party to change the constitution :)

The dogballs Party?

To be fair, he didn’t lose the first 21, he sacked his own team!! 

Then his brother quit and another followed a few days after, he’s up to 23 at the moment. 

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4 hours ago, mad said:

https://twitter.com/jimmfelton/status/1172532608749596673?s=21

maybe somebody can embed this properly? 

It’s worth it. :D

 

 

Actually her "girly swot" apology appears to have got more airtime than another one of Boris's vacuous speeches. She is a BBC Reporter on maternity leave doing a private MC gig.

Question is was it the BBC worried their access to the Govt might be curtailed by a vindictive Downing St or one of Boris's snowflakes there who was offended that generated her apology?

No matter the answer Boris and the UK are the losers.

 

Speaking of losers and UK Govt 18th century Media policy.

I hangout on the other side of the planet and a fan of BBC Current Affairs specials. There are some cracker ones on at the moment. They are available simultaneously on-line, via BBC's iPlayer and something most free to air broadcasters do world wide. However not the fucking UK. 

It has a "paywall" and the first "media paywall" invented in 1922 and by a Tory Government. It was also the same year the Irish Free State was formed and all but Nth Ireland managed to get away. Maybe this "paywall" was and still is the reason behind the Irish Nationalist movement?

No one can access that free to air content online including me, unless we have a fucking UK TV Licence. 

The irony in all this is the UK Govt in its wisdom thinks Brexiting with No Deal that will cost both the public and private sector countless billions of pounds is a good thing. Yet the penny pinching pricks comb the streets looking for criminals who don't pay their TV Licence??? 

I can see why the country is in the state it is in, people will vote for a Marxist PM just to avoid paying a TV Licence so they watch the BBC on their iPad on the train.

Fuck the country I'm now with them with maybe the bonus of a No Brexit or at least a 2nd vote on it.

images - 2019-09-14T123007.724.jpeg

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5 hours ago, mad said:

To be fair, he didn’t lose the first 21, he sacked his own team!! 

Then his brother quit and another followed a few days after, he’s up to 23 at the moment. 

To add to that and some Roman shit.

By the current State of the Parties comprising 650 seats in total, the Conservatives are on 288 (ex the Speaker) or with 10 DUP,  137 votes short of the 2/3 (434) votes required under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, for the Government to table a successful motion for an early election. Note: Aside from other parties Labour having 247 seats simply by abstaining or voting against prevents this occuring.

Or for other motions (including bizzarely the Govt calling motion of "no confidence" in itself) simply requiring a majority on the floor, from 650 subtract 7 Sinn Fein, the Speaker and one suspended Tory that leaves a total of 641 seats on the floor or 321 MP's required for a voting majority. Or in other words the Government are currently 23 votes short. 

"The die is cast." These are the words Julius Caesar is supposed to have uttered as he crossed the Rubicon, defying the Senate of Rome before riding to the capital in 49 B.C. and unleashing a civil war. He was finally assasinated by those Senators.

The big question now is of those 288 Tory's how many more would be willing to cross the Rubicon (>41 makes Labour the largest party) to either assasinate Bum Face Caeser or send him, Gaius Cuntas Cummings and Arlenia Cornelia a more powerfull message, a message they currently appear oblivious to?

images - 2019-09-14T140336.530.jpeg

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I see the liberal party conference is going ahead today, in their pre booked Halls with their pre booked accommodation.. So much for not wanting parliament prorogued. I suspect All the other parties will. Have the same...

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26 minutes ago, The Q said:

I see the liberal party conference is going ahead today,...... So much for not wanting parliament prorogued. 

Winds up this Tuesday, then they sit on their arse for 4 weeks.

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48 minutes ago, The Q said:

I see the liberal party conference is going ahead today, in their pre booked Halls with their pre booked accommodation.. So much for not wanting parliament prorogued. I suspect All the other parties will. Have the same...

The conferences were always going to happen, now they have a nice break afterwards. 

Edit, I see Jack beat me to it. 

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18 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

I mentioned upthread the aspect of UK Ports not taking into account in their planning for the predominance of Eastern European drivers, many who neither speak or talk English.

This will not be a problem. Yesterday I came through Portsmouth, and for the first time in ages was inspected by customs. The entire customs team are from eastern Europe. Ironic that the control of UK borders is now in the hands of EU citizens. They were excellent, by the way, courteous and thorough.

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22 hours ago, mad said:

He’s an odious, pompous prick. 

Mcc braces and primerally concerned with the quality of lunch.

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Boris Johnson cabinet minister Nicky Morgan says she would vote Remain in second Brexit referendum: 'It is not a result I was comfortable with'

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nicky-morgan-brexit-boris-johnson-remain-vote-referendum-a9105091.html%3famp

I bet she’s sacked by Monday morning! 

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The problem, though, is the EU is insistent that whatever replaces the backstop must meet three tests.

First, it must avoid any infrastructure on the border that would be incompatible with the Good Friday Agreement. Second, it must protect the integrity of the EU’s single market. Third, it must not involve any checks on the island of Ireland.

Barclay said the UK could meet the first two of these tests, but not the third. He said there was no point in presenting any detailed proposals until the EU shifted on the question of checks.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9926048/boris-negotiate-weakened-parliament-new-deal/

Not bad for a Sun article.
It is telling though that the EU has to shift, and that because of this he implies all Alternative creative Arrangements are not good enough.

1) can be done with controls away from the border, good for reputable traders and people, not for good smugglers and people smugglers.
2) can only be done by making sure all goods, even the smuggled ones, are up to EU  standards. That means a lot of police to stop smuggling and red tape and enforcers to make sure transported goods are up to snuff. Only possible if NI will be under state control up to the booth of every car passing the border. It is possible, but you do not want to live in there any more.
3) So Ireland stays for 100% in the EU. How nice of them to think the EU has to shift on that.

Come on BJ, resign or really sort this out; try a real coup and go for No Deal or call now a 2d ref.
In the ref Options;
1) Remain, with saying goodbye to the Pound, rebate and all perks and really become a full blown EU member.
2) Leave, 6 months after result, WTO, totally leave the EU, and will talk deals later with whoever.

I would not be surprised if Leave won in that case. In that case you would be a hero. Or Remain wins and you will be the ultimate tosser.
Nice gamble.

Brexit overshadows political parties, you can be liberal, conservative or socialist in our out the EU.

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1 hour ago, LeoV said:

the ultimate tosser.

it's clear that regardless of what happens, this will be true

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2 hours ago, LeoV said:

The problem, though, is the EU is insistent that whatever replaces the backstop must meet three tests.

First, it must avoid any infrastructure on the border that would be incompatible with the Good Friday Agreement. Second, it must protect the integrity of the EU’s single market. Third, it must not involve any checks on the island of Ireland.

There is actually a WTO rule over monitoring the movement of goods across borders where a Customs Union doesn't exist. This involves infrastructure of some kind, albeit not necessarily on the border itself.

Many will say the EU & UK are actually taking a very liberal interpretation of the GFA, being anything other than Nth Ireland and Ireland in a joint Customs Union and Single Market collides with the GFA by removing uniformity between north and south. The recent Nth Ireland Court Case may have shot that argument down.

The DUP have actually disengenously suggested this concept of breaching the GFA applies east west between Nth Ireland and Great Britain if Nth Ireland remained in the EU Customs Union and Single Market. I don't ever recall the IRA escaping to Great Britain or army watchtowers in the Port of Belfast during the Troubles.

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5 hours ago, hump101 said:

This will not be a problem. Yesterday I came through Portsmouth, and for the first time in ages was inspected by customs. The entire customs team are from eastern Europe. Ironic that the control of UK borders is now in the hands of EU citizens. They were excellent, by the way, courteous and thorough.

You may find they have just been temporarily transplanted to Portsmouth from the existing joint EU/UK Customs set up on the other side for trials currently being carried out by the French ??

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2 hours ago, LeoV said:

Brexit overshadows political parties, you can be liberal, conservative or socialist in our out the EU.

Scotland and Nth Ireland might be the exception where politics of Independence/Reunification drives Remain. In Nth Ireland's case a No Deal Brexit outcome may arguably even drive reunification quicker, so theoretically Nationalists there can't lose either way, other than economically.

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You can be liberal, conservative or socialist in our out the EU, and you can be that outside the Kingdom Union too.
It is time for a coupled referendum, one about the EU and one about the UK in Wales, Scotland and NI and London (freecity/port) :)

As Libdem said; real referendum.

EEVdVQnU0AEolau.jpg

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8 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Winds up this Tuesday, then they sit on their arse for 4 weeks.

Yes and every year they prorogue parliament for the duration of the Tory,  labour,  green party,  snp,  plaid cymru, conferences all one after the other as normal.. Several weeks of boring TV... 

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Part One of this BBC series was aired last week. Copied by Slugger and put on UTube for those with no UK TV Licence to get on BBC iView.

Ordinarily these Troubles documentaries are the same old . However this one excellent and fresh with new material incl that obtained from Ireland recently lifting embargo on documents that are still sealed in Belfast & London. Chronicles the UK fuckup's and unknown until now attempts to paper over their mistakes in Nth Ireland hidden from view. 

At 1 1/2 hours pretty long so if you are short on time or only interested in some current Brexit context go to last 15 minutes starting at 1.12.30. 

This covers the lead up to Stormont collapse/Direct Rule and enhanced border control being imposed in 1972 and exactly the position Boris is at today but with a twist.

In 1972 Nationalists/IRA effectively welcomed Direct Rule (via Stormont collapse but not the consequences) whereas Unionists were really pissed off with Downing St, the exact opposite to today.....at this point :-)

 

 

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19 minutes ago, The Q said:

Yes and every year they prorogue parliament for the duration of the Tory,  labour,  green party,  snp,  plaid cymru, conferences all one after the other as normal.. Several weeks of boring TV... 

Might be more interesting this year.

The normal convention in convention season is the parties don't attack each other so they each get max media attention when their turn comes up.

I read Cummings came out the other day saying the Tory's won't be abiding by that agreement this year.

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31 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

I read Cummings came out the other day saying the Tory's won't be abiding by that agreement this year.

At least there is one guy in the UK considering the continuity of the entertainment value in this soap, give the man a Bafta or something like that

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7 hours ago, LeoV said:

The problem, though, is the EU is insistent that whatever replaces the backstop must meet three tests.

First, it must avoid any infrastructure on the border that would be incompatible with the Good Friday Agreement. Second, it must protect the integrity of the EU’s single market. Third, it must not involve any checks on the island of Ireland.

Barclay said the UK could meet the first two of these tests, but not the third. He said there was no point in presenting any detailed proposals until the EU shifted on the question of checks.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9926048/boris-negotiate-weakened-parliament-new-deal/

Not bad for a Sun article.
It is telling though that the EU has to shift, and that because of this he implies all Alternative creative Arrangements are not good enough.

 

It has taken them a while to work out MaxFac is a horse with a horn on its head.

Satisfying No 3 is easy;

NI aligns with EU/RoI

or

RoI aligns with NI/UK.

One of those two is also the horsey thing.

IMG_20190915_033724.jpg

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No way, he is a guardian of the union. One source from NI is not enough to believe lately.

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The Brexit party sees no problem in fielding candidates from the Leninist left

...

Islington North, a candidate will stand from a party with a history of supporting IRA atrocities. But it won’t be the Labour party. It will have roots in a conspiracist Leninist sect that denied the existence of the concentration camps in to which “socialist” Serbs herded Bosnian Muslims. ...

Farage put forward four candidates from what was in the 1980s the RCP, and then morphed into Living Marxism, the Institute of Ideas and Spiked. The names may have been different but the personnel and mentality endured. One, Claire Fox of the BBC’s Moral Maze, is now a Brexit party member of the European parliament.

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17 hours ago, LeoV said:

No way, he is a guardian of the union. One source from NI is not enough to believe lately.

Boris guardian of the Union???...giggle. Anybody or anything which gets between Boris and him being King of the World is toast.

Having said that it is puzzeling he hasn't BBQ'd the DUP by now? It is not as though he needs them anymore to maintain a majority in Parliament and in a Parliament that is on an extended vacation. They are clearly providing the means for something in his Brexit blame or illusion bag of tricks.

I think the concept of "unqualified" sources disappeared when Boris arrived. No one in the UK believes anyone anymore, even their parish priest.

As for DUP starting to split. That split actually appeared with May #2 vote. For that and #3 they had to be whipped to death. My guess this fracture is on the cusp of coming out in the open or Arlene folding as reported.

Brexit No Deal or Deal with "NI stay put" is a lose/lose for the DUP for tempering a border poll/reunification. Only question is which one makes it occur sooner?

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1 hour ago, KC375 said:

Islington North, a candidate will stand from a party with a history of supporting IRA atrocities.

Also easy to find past, sitting or candidate MP's with a history of supporting Unionist Paramilitary atrocities. 

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our usually very serious national telly channel {aka our own beeb) has of course just reported on Boris' latest shenanigan in the 7 o'clock news, the Hulk analogy ... but at the end of the 1 minute report the newsreader, also known to be ever so reliable and serious, added following : of course one has to keep in mind that the movie character "the Hulk", when being the hulk, has the mind and intelligence of an average 5 year old toddler.... hilarious, but ever so true.

 

 

the other thing is of course that in a while, if it's correct that what Boris and his motley crew are aiming at : the border in the Irish sea, we'll see the triumphalistic return of the likes of Wayne, opportunistically forgetting that this was one of the first EU proposals.

 

the soap of soaps

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UK are getting ridiculous. Watched the Marr show just now, it all just makes no sense, from all sides.
And BJ has one plan, to stay in power, and will try everything, from No deal, Irish sea, Ireland out of the EU. Everything. But nothing works at the moment.

From comments:
Though like the Hulk, the UK will wake up after Brexit, naked, cold, confused and not really sure what happened, while hoping no one died.

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2 hours ago, Albatros said:

the other thing is of course that in a while, if it's correct that what Boris and his motley crew are aiming at : the border in the Irish sea, we'll see the triumphalistic return of the likes of Wayne, opportunistically forgetting that this was one of the first EU proposals.

Stated that the border would end up in the Irish Sea months and months ago on this thread as being the only real solution to an age old problem. Fully acknowledge that it was bought up early in the negotiations but the shit really had to hit rock bottom before it was going to be really considered by either side. Alas I suspect we still have a wee way to go yet before it’s confirmed and that may well be after the U.K. is either timed out or kicked out of the Union, such is the shenanigans by our leading mumpties which are still not done and dusted. Perhaps Boris and the EU will indeed wimp it and bring back a BRINO deal after all, that however will just prolong the agony for both parties for years to come.

Hey i’ve really really been bored by the content of late on the thread, always somewhat “construed” and predictable such is the froth and pithy style of most of writers, a few of you need to get jobs out among the populice at large and not among the upper earners that most seem to be from, to really get a feel for what the population of England thinks of this debacle. 

Reading an article the other day in the Telegraph ( yes I do read other daily’s on the other side of the fence as well ) there was a brilliant summation of the sate of play in forums such as these. I’ll put it up in part here for you to have a wee looksee.

The Brexit crisis, of course, has provided irresistible opportunities for pomposity and unkindness. And these failings are no longer judged as harshly as they once were; indeed, they are barely even recognised as failings. Social media, which has replaced all other media as the way to get noticed, rewards qualities from which we once recoiled: attention-seeking, literal-mindedness, self-importance, lack of imagination and delusions of moral virtue. If Mr Pooter were alive today, he would inspire not pitying laughter but a hashtag campaign: #Justice4Nobodies.

The people you might want to share a desk with in real life – the thoughtful fence-sitters, the hesitant dreamers, the peace-makers and compromisers – cannot make themselves heard above the din. Increasingly, they don’t bother trying. 

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11 hours ago, Albatros said:

the other thing is of course that in a while, if it's correct that what Boris and his motley crew are aiming at : the border in the Irish sea, we'll see the triumphalistic return of the likes of Wayne, opportunistically forgetting that this was one of the first EU proposals.

An island of Ireland border in the Irish Sea is nearly 100 and 20 years old and where the latter actually happened, but many have forgotten.

Maybe I can use that to help Boris and Arlene solve their Irish border conundrum using that history, both mine and theirs. 

Theirs was a regulatory breech by the UK 20 years ago (which drives EU/RI fear today) and where the DUP grew some balls and put their citizens wellbeing first over Unionism.

You might remember the outbreak in the UK of Foot & Mouth disease in 2001. This caused a crisis in British agriculture and tourism with over 6 million cows and sheep being killed across the UK countryside.

TELEMMGLPICT000185835396-xxlarge_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqpVlberWd9EgFPZtcLiMQfyf2A9a6I9YchsjMeADBa08.thumb.jpeg.7ab7a3c7e47808e581a9f2820503cd58.jpeg

It had a huge impact upon our family Agri-food import export business in two ways. Demand from the EU and UK for our overseas imported product went through the roof. Even when that impact had diminished, it left us with an expanded client sales base, many who are still onboard today.

On the other hand our third party UK supplier clients, where they exported their product to the continental EU using our supply chain, the poor buggers were literally "dying in a ditch".

Enter the Stormont Assembly lead by the DUP's Dr Ian Paisley and Sinn Fein Deputy Martin McGuinness. The NI Agricultural Minister in Paisleys Cabinet was a SDLP lady called Brid Rodgers.

She was on a hiding to nothing in this position as you can read from this Irish Times article dated 2001.

Against Downing Street’s advice and despite Downing Street threatening to overrule her, Paisley backed her banning the movement of British livestock into the North and insisted on Downing Streets support to the North’s exemption from a European ban on UK livestock being imported to the EU. 

She also did do so in troubled times. For instance after a foot and mouth outbreak in Ardnoe, she sent the British Army in to help with the cull after first liasing with Nationalists/IRA on the ground and Sinn Fein.

IMG_20190916_134340.thumb.jpg.1ea1e7e70bacf8f370f25b81e1df44ef.jpg

Rodgers leaving Downing St after meeting with Blair in early 2001

Her success not only preserved the north south movement of livestock but also those both in Nth Ireland and Ireland using Great Britain as a "land bridge" to the EU. 

So the lesson today for Boris and the DUP.

Nth Ireland Unionists, Nationalists and the  UK Government have already sung from the same hymn sheet arguing for Nth Ireland’s "distinctiveness", moved the border and the Nth Ireland environment aligning with the EU/RoI, not the UK.

How is it different today? 

Boris and Arlene are both putting their heads up their respective political arses being their paramount objective, not respecting the wishes of a NI majority and welfare of all NI citizens they are supposed to represent.

These two wankers could take a lead from Bríd Rodgers who grabbed the "poisoned chalice" she was handed and set about looking after her country plus making herself a hero across the NI political spectrum.

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As you know well the EU doesn’t always act in a reasonable and pragmatic way as far as agriculture goes, Foot & Mouth disease can only be passed from live animals, the EU at the time banned all animals from the U.K. whether they were dead and processed even they were healthy animals or alive. That simple move by the EU insured penury for almost all livestock farmers in the U.K. and had great effect on many businesses outside of the compensated few such as tourism.

My own business went into virtual hiatus in the U.K. for nearly 18 months through a bizarre spin off association with the F&M causing my market to virtually close. It was only our exports to Aus NZ and in particular the States that meant my survival but I had to lay off my staff which halted an incredible development lead we had in a certain field of electronics and once we got going again, sadly the opposition had caught us up.

One of those stories that just show how circumstances outside of your control can effect your wealth, Jacko made a fortune, I lost a fortune because a few Welsh hill farmers drove infected sheep over to neighbouring properties to be double counted. Life sucks sometimes.

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Boris talks of bringing shipbuilding back to the UK. He knows that is horseshit.

The only significant UK shipbuilders left are defence like BAE on the Clyde. They and their opposition in Sweden, France etc mainly build offshore now in joint venture with their customers.

That shipbuilding train has left the station.

 

 

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Kipper Hulk goes for lunch in the EU with his good friend Juncker.

Looks like his plan A is;
Where they’re at: Barclay told Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday there is now a “landing zone” in sight for a new deal. In broad terms the plan — or at least hope — inside No. 10 is for a grand compromise on the Irish backstop, replacing it with a regulatory border of sorts in the Irish Sea combined with some sort of technological fudge along the Irish border. “All sides need to accept some level of risk,” a government source tells Playbook. “For them it’s the single market. For us it’s East/West checks.” The Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn hears similar, with a senior No. 10 source telling him Boris wants EU leaders to “meet him halfway.” The source adds: “What’s the point in us putting down a grand plan just for them to rip it up in front of us? This has to be a mutual process and that’s what the meeting with Juncker will be about.” No one expects a real breakthrough before next month.

Plan B is:
And if none of the above works? The Mail on Sunday yesterday claimed there is a “secret plan” known to just Boris and three senior aides that would allow him to ignore the requirements of the Benn bill and deliver a no-deal Brexit without actually breaking the law. Details are scarce (let’s hope one of the three is a lawyer), but the source said it would involve a “court battle” after the EU summit next month. That could perhaps then be coupled with a second prorogation of parliament, which the PM’s chief aide Dominic Cummings mentioned (half-jokingly, whatever that means) at the weekly SpAd meeting on Friday night. In yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph, former No. 10 legislative expert Joe Moor confirmed it should be possible to prorogue parliament again from mid-October, which might be a way round Commons Speaker John Bercow’s threat last week of further legislative action if needed. The Times says No. 10 is playing the whole thing down, though that may not be enough to assuage worried anti-Brexit MPs.

Politico.

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Plan A;
EU is not going to take risks with a bunch of populists who are famous for backstabbing, lying and breaking laws.
If you look at the history of BJ, Goove, Pritil, Davis and the lot you can only come to one conclusion; never ever trust them, put everything on paper and  check it if it is even legal.
And can you guarantee it will pass parliament ? Nope, no one can.
You better do it the Swiss way, first a proposal through Parliament, and then go to the EU. But then the country decides and not the Tories.

Plan B;
damn, passing many respected fake democracies to a level unknown for decades.

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Oh, and I forgot Raab, he is now blaming the EU again, as in his brilliant days when working for May. The UK has a brilliant plan (but can not be talked about in open) and the  EU has to budge.
You know the donkey and the stone ?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/16/raab-accuses-eu-of-political-posturing-before-johnson-talks

And funny about posturing, did he forget his boss just did a Hulk posturing ?

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And there is talk about this being the most important days for a deal (remember 30 days deadline ?) And that UK plans are now firmly on the table and being discussed in the EU.
BJ says it himself. I though it was always 11th hour ?
BJ: If we can make enough progress in the next few days, I intend to go to that crucial summit on Oct 17, and finalise an agreement that will protect the interests of business and citizens on both sides of the Channel, and on both sides of the border in Ireland.

It will be easy to spot;
if Juncker comes out with; we have achieved a lot in ways of a deal.
Then a deal is still possible.
If he says; there is still a big problem, it is over.

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Boris talks of bringing shipbuilding back to the UK. He knows that is horseshit.

The only significant UK shipbuilders left are defence like BAE on the Clyde. They and their opposition in Sweden, France etc mainly build offshore now in joint venture with their customers.

That shipbuilding train has left the station.

 

 

Don't you think that post Brexit a low tax environment and dramatically weakend pound might allow the UK to again compete in shipbuilding. That said it means the purchasing power parity of UK shipyard wages would end up on a par with Korea and China

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15 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

Reading an article the other day in the Telegraph ( yes I do read other daily’s on the other side of the fence as well ) there was a brilliant summation of the sate of play in forums such as these. I’ll put it up in part here for you to have a wee looksee.

The Brexit crisis, of course, has provided irresistible opportunities for pomposity and unkindness. And these failings are no longer judged as harshly as they once were; indeed, they are barely even recognised as failings. Social media, which has replaced all other media as the way to get noticed, rewards qualities from which we once recoiled: attention-seeking, literal-mindedness, self-importance, lack of imagination and delusions of moral virtue. If Mr Pooter were alive today, he would inspire not pitying laughter but a hashtag campaign: #Justice4Nobodies.

The people you might want to share a desk with in real life – the thoughtful fence-sitters, the hesitant dreamers, the peace-makers and compromisers – cannot make themselves heard above the din. Increasingly, they don’t bother trying

Who ever wrote that article criticisng the social media response and volume to Brexit and that the silent fence sitters are not heard above the din really needs to get out more.

- Social media drove the Brexit Referendum result by misinformation and targeted marketing. 

- Governments drive the acceptance of policy and discredit opposition using social media. This applies particularly to the far political right.

- On the other hand public revolt against Government policy would never occur without the immediate dissemination of information and protest coordination offered up by social media. Think Hong Kong, Catalonia etc.

- Social media is a "listening tool" for mainstream media and being able to quickly respond accordingly. Note: Navigating through that information is certainly an issue and so the media has to responsibily apply verification and fact checking procedures to avoid the promotion of "fake news". Some are better than others at that.

- User generated content, eye witness video, expert technical commentary etc is now imediatley available via social media.

As for this claim that fence-sitters and hesitant dreamers are not being heard above the social media din. I suggest that problem is one of their own make up and social media being around or not is irrelevant. Those people are never going to get off their arse and engage.

The UK should celebrate their social media and internet freedom. Those in places like China, Russia and the Middle East etc are not so lucky.

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13 minutes ago, KC375 said:

Don't you think that post Brexit a low tax environment and dramatically weakend pound might allow the UK to again compete in shipbuilding. That said it means the purchasing power parity of UK shipyard wages would end up on a par with Korea and China

Yeah but the productivity & reliability would still suck so badly that nobody would ever commission a ship to be built there.....

FKT

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26 minutes ago, KC375 said:

Don't you think that post Brexit a low tax environment and dramatically weakend pound might allow the UK to again compete in shipbuilding. That said it means the purchasing power parity of UK shipyard wages would end up on a par with Korea and China

KC you probably answered your own question. UK costs would have to plummet to be on par with commercial builders. That only comes via increased productivity using technology and capping labour costs. The UK has shown no capacity to adopt that for heavy industrial with scale in the last 50 years or more.

UK defence work opportunity on face value looks appealing as those commercial builders, particularly from the far East don't get a look in for national alliance and security reasons. Problem is many customer nations for local employment reasons etc demand joint venture type builds occuring in their own postcode. For instance BAE has a number of offshore operations to service this market.

Contrary to Boris's claims UK shipbuilding is a niche market at best.

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Nigel Farage walks into a pub and says, I'll have a pint of beer please. The barman pours a pint, then throws it all over Farage.

'What did you do that for?' says Farage, drenched to the skin.

'Because you're in a metaphor which illustrates the stupidity of asking for something but not stipulating how you fecking wanted it delivered, you frog-faced sniveling cant!'

'But I'm still thirsty, so I want a pint -- this time in a glass!' says Farage.

'You can't ask again!' said the barman.

'Why not?' sniveled Farage.

'Democracy.' says the barman.

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27 minutes ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

Yeah but the productivity & reliability would still suck so badly that nobody would ever commission a ship to be built there.....

FKT

 

16 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

... UK costs would have to plummet to be on par with commercial builders. That only comes via increased productivity using technology and capping labour costs. The UK has shown no capacity to adopt that for heavy industrial with scale in the last 50 years or more.

...

Those comments ring true with my business experience in the UK (now stale by a decade).

In metal bashing businesses (ok now much carbon fiber and aluminium) the Brits were great at the engineering and small production side (Maclaren, Lotus etc – you would be surprised how many cars around the world us something designed by Lotus but not branded Lotus – e.g. the suspension on a Japanese SUV I owned) but crap at large production...there is a reason the Mini is a BMW...

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47 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Contrary to Boris's claims UK shipbuilding is a niche market at best.

And that niche market in the EU is taken by Dutch, German and the Polish.
It takes more then just a bunch of welders and an overhead crane. Will take 50 years to set up.
With the Port OF Rotterdam, tradition in dredging and luxury yacht building it is more then a niche here.
The Dutch maritime cluster consists of many different subsectors, e.g. dredging, deepsea-, short sea,
inland- and recreational shipping, pelagic fishing, maritime supply, offshore, dredging, shipbuilding,
maritime research, hydraulic engineering and maritime services. All the subsectors are closely
related and reinforce each other. The maritime cluster is strong from an economic, technological and
innovative perspective. It consists of more than 12,000 companies and has a direct added value of
EURO 18.7 billion a year, about 3.5 % of the total GDP of the Netherlands.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=13&ved=2ahUKEwj3usWRqNXkAhVCbVAKHWScDSQQFjAMegQIARAH&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.government.nl%2Fbinaries%2Fgovernment%2Fdocuments%2Freports%2F2016%2F12%2F08%2Fthe-netherlands-home-to-leading-maritime-companies%2FThe%2BNetherlands%2BHome%2Bto%2BLeading%2BMaritime%2BCompanies.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0f4B1VYQ0SyyWK_GQEOjQg

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Juncker after lunch with BJ;

President Juncker recalled that it is the UK’s responsibility to come forward with legally operational solutions that are compatible with the withdrawal agreement. President Juncker underlined the commission’s continued willingness and openness to examine whether such proposals meet the objectives of the backstop. Such proposals have not yet been made.

BJ:
The prime minister reconfirmed his commitment to the Good Friday/Belfast agreement and his determination to reach a deal with the backstop removed, that UK parliamentarians could support.

----------------------------------------------------------
So his Ooomph did not work yet. No magical stuff. But talks will keep going in a more direct way. Foster to Barnier and BJ to Juncker.
Oh and only if there are proposals to talk over... :)

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5 hours ago, LeoV said:

Looks like his plan A is;
Where they’re at: Barclay told Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday there is now a “landing zone” in sight for a new deal. In broad terms the plan — or at least hope — inside No. 10 is for a grand compromise on the Irish backstop, replacing it with a regulatory border of sorts in the Irish Sea combined with some sort of technological fudge along the Irish border. “All sides need to accept some level of risk,” a government source tells Playbook. “For them it’s the single market. For us it’s East/West checks.” The Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn hears similar, with a senior No. 10 source telling him Boris wants EU leaders to “meet him halfway.” The source adds: “What’s the point in us putting down a grand plan just for them to rip it up in front of us? This has to be a mutual process and that’s what the meeting with Juncker will be about.” No one expects a real breakthrough before next month.

This interview with Barclay is very revealing.

Go to 5.30 and listen to Barclay. He says the concept of backstop being unacceptable with Nth Ireland aligning with EU rules but Nth Ireland not having a say. This is the first time this has been articulated . Before it has always been that of the UK not having a say. Very big distinction.

Watch Sophie carefully at 6.40. She picks this up from notes. My guess is she was given a heads up pre interview on a small but important nuance that ordinarily would be missed by an interviewer. Downing St left nothing to chance.

From that Times article I posted upthread generated by a DUP leak which said exactly the same thing.

Despite Ms Foster’s insistence, party sources now say that they could accept regulatory divergence with the “consent” of Northern Irish democratic institutions. They made clear that this would not require the Northern Ireland executive and assembly, which collapsed more than two years ago, to be up and running before October 31.

“That could happen in the transition period,” they said, adding they were “positive” that a deal could be done. The agreement could find favour in Brussels as the EU is most concerned about Northern Ireland becoming a back door into its single market for non-compliant goods if the UK signed trade deals with countries such as the US.

That Times article indicating there is discord within the EU over the Irish Only Backstop apppears to be on the money, despite Arlene saying otherwise. Arlene has just worked out that light is not the end of the tunnel.

This “consent of Northern Irish democratic institutions" or a "Stormont Lock" on a Irish Only Backstop and the EU having to accept "some level of risk,” is going to feature strongly in the spin coming out of Downing Street in coming days is my guess.

Ordinarily you would think this is another UK Unicorn in terms of a party outside the EU having some degree of control, particularly in terms of the precedent it would set for other EU states with potential Brexit like intentions.

However the Irish Border is very unique problem and it is a fundamental issue to any Deal that is not going to go away. My guess is the EU are going to have to suck this one up and in return they will demand the Backstop encompasses far more than Agri foods and livestock etc. There will be no reliance on MaxFac nonsence.

In agreeing the EU's protection will initially be the wording on how the Stormont Lock can be activated and ultimately the issue evaporating sometime down the track when there is a border poll and Nth Ireland ceases to exist. 

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34 minutes ago, LeoV said:

It takes more then just a bunch of welders and an overhead crane. Will take 50 years to set up.
With the Port OF Rotterdam, tradition in dredging and luxury yacht building it is more then a niche here.

Yep

 

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So we have to wait till CUP convention to hear what the Tories are up to. If it will be diffrent then the normal Hulk/Kipper language. Doubt it.

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On the other hand if BJ has a plan like NI backstop only, he better keep that hidden till Oct 16th. Meanwhile talking to ERG members to back him.
And EU could play along with; no serious proposals received.
But in that case you do not expect Hulk stories.

Tomorrow it is Court day about prorogation.
 

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1 hour ago, LeoV said:

And that niche market in the EU is taken by Dutch, German and the Polish.

and the Finnish...

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^^^icebreakers, nice niche.

HULK strong, but afraid of a few protesters. Cancels statement, Lux PM still goes ahead. BJ missing.

EEl3JxVXoAALUBm.jpg

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So this is the crowd that was so scarry that BJ decided to skip his press conference

3500.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=forma

The Luxembourgeois are well behaved. What happens when he has to face a real crowd.

201809719-ebb024d6-baeb-4b58-ad75-e5a625

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Press conference with Xavier Bettel (Luxembourg PM) that was to include BJ until he put tail between legs and ran away from the not very scary crowd politely retrained behind the barrier. It's good stuff. (From the Guardian live stream)

Bettel says his meeting with Johnson took longer than planned. He says he told Johnson: “I hear a lot, but I don’t read a lot.”

He says he needs to see proposals in writing.

He says the UK cannot blame the EU because they do not know how to get out of a situation they created.

Bettel says before Brexit people said to voters in the UK that they would get money back, that Brexit would happen in 24 hours, and that it would all be fine.

No one called out the lies, he says.

That is because people in the EU were not strong enough to says that lies were being old.

Q: Did Johnson say he would obey the law? He has implied he would not.

Bettel replies: This would not happen in Luxembourg.

Bettel says one party decided to organise the referendum.

He says there was no clear information campaign in the UK, explaining what Brexit would mean.

He says Brexit was not the EU’s decision.

And he says Theresa May accepted the withdrawal agreement.

These are “homemade problems”, he says.

He says he will not accept that EU leaders, or the European commission, are to blame for what happened.

And that’s it. The protesters cheer as Bettel leaves.

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Luxembourg PM's press conference - Snap verdict

That was extraordinary. Boris Johnson, the British prime minister, has just been humiliated by the leader of the tiniest country in the European Union. (correction to an earlier post because it wrongly said Luxembourg was the smallest country in the EU. In fact Malta is smaller, both geographically and in terms of population).

We were expecting a joint, open-air press conference but, with a large crowd of anti-Brexit campaigners threatening to drown out Johnson, it was announced that the British PM was not going to take part (presumably because of the demonstration, although that has not officially been confirmed yet). Normally in these circumstances the polite thing to do is to re-arrange. But instead Xavier Bettel, the prime minister of Luxembourg, just went ahead anyway, effectively “empty chairing” his guest. At one point he even gestured at the space where Johnson was supposed to be.

And then Xavier just let rip. People often wonder what EU leaders say or think about Johnson in private. Well, now we know. The leave campaign was a pack of lies, Johnson’s talk of progress in the Brexit talk is unfounded, the UK still has not come up with any ideas. On and on he went, with particular emphasis on the point that the UK, not the EU, was to blame for the crisis. It was a “nightmare” for EU citizen, said Bettel. At several points he was loudly applauded by the protesters, because they felt he was articulating their anger.

Yesterday Johnson depicted himself as the Incredible Hulk. As the Telegraph’s Michael Deacon suggests, the reality could not be more different.

Michael Deacon (@MichaelPDeacon)

My favourite episode of The Incredible Hulk is the one where a small group of people shouted too loudly so he ran away

September 16, 2019

BJ is not going to want to go home. A little spilt wine is nothing compared to this. What will Carrie Symonds say?

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Yep, some people think the power in the EU is Germany France, but it allows for small countries to be heard. And Lux stands with Ireland and GFA before the UK.
He could have ordered to remove one podium and UK flag though :)

Boris Johnson says didn't take part in news conference cos "not fair to the PM of Luxembourg" who might have been drowned out.

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Small British companies face two scenarios

1. No Deal Brexit catastrophe

2. No Deal Brexit avoided but prolonged Brexit uncertainty.

They have had a taste of the effects of #2 for the last 11 months and one by one they are responding. The family company I mentioned earlier has shifted the manufacture of in house components from Portsmouth to a sub-contractor in Germany. Sales and Design will remain proudly and loyally British but this allows us to serve Republic of Ireland (5% of sales) and continental EU (20% of sales) from a EU subsidiary.  Installation and service plans to avoid delays using UK based engineers are still being worked on......well the plan is obvious but the reality is that it is hard to hire the equivalent skill set + it is frustrating to create a divide between the design and installation teams (where one group owns the successful design and installation).  The two largest EU mandates that are in the bidding process now require EU based service engineers to avoid Brexit risk. 

While the politicos talk about new customers in India and Sierra Leone, the reality is that UK companies have customers that are in the EU.

Anyway......what will happen will happen. 

It seems to this distant observer that much of the outcome will depend on a highly uncertain electoral process which is undergoing a seismic shift. The Tories are relying on the fact that the Labour party is effectively unelectable while Corbyn remains the party leader. There is a massive ABC sentiment among both disgruntled Tory voters and swing Labour voters that makes the math for a swing to Labour very unlikely. But, at the same time, the Conservative party is losing voters that have voted Tories all of their lives. The shift to the Brexit party  has probably halted with BJ at the helm but there are many former lifelong Conservative voters who are seriously considering voting for the Liberal Democrats.  

The fairest way to determine the real wishes of the voters would be a second referendum with an actual deal to vote on. BJ would prefer a general election than a referendum because he would have the ABC factor working in his favor .....but the Lib Dems could pose a serious threat to a Conservative majority, either by winning seats or splitting traditional Conservative votes in marginal constituencies and allowing Labour to win.

 

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Yep I think BJ getting a deal without a backstop is as possible as Corbyn stepping down.

He keeps saying backstop has to go;

 

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And leavers will see BJ as hero because he avoided being booed by EU fanatics, and Lux PM was horrible.

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8 minutes ago, LeoV said:

And leavers will see BJ as hero because he avoided being booed by EU fanatics, and Lux PM was horrible.

Leo I think you are right when it comes to the "true believers" but I think overtime BJ's repeated bumbling and humiliation will erode the less fanatical support. Then if somehow Corbyn left the scene...(Who will rid me of this troublesome Trotskyite?)

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1 hour ago, KC375 said:

My favourite episode of The Incredible Hulk is the one where a small group of people shouted too loudly so he ran away

The Disappearing Hulk

 

 

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Corbyn seems to be as responsible as Johnson for the impasse by not just quitting and letting someone who could win an election lead his party. 

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5 hours ago, KC375 said:

Don't you think that post Brexit a low tax environment and dramatically weakend pound might allow the UK to again compete in shipbuilding. That said it means the purchasing power parity of UK shipyard wages would end up on a par with Korea and China

I suppose if workers in the UK are willing to work for China wage levels....

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I think they would be willing to work for ROK level wages.  I think the problem here is that the technologies/cost controls used to build large vessels in Asia these days have already passed by UK yards. 

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40 minutes ago, spankoka said:

I think they would be willing to work for ROK level wages.  I think the problem here is that the technologies used to build large vessels in Asia these days have already passed by UK yards. 

1-image-3.jpg

 

AND Hyundai Heavy Industries, the world’s biggest shipbuilding group, has announced a share swap deal to take over second-ranked Daewoo and create a global heavyweight controlling over 20 percent of the market.

But Boris dreams on that post Brexit sterling and wages will fall enough to compete...remeber this is the guy that promised a bridge to ireland and previously promised:

garden-bridge-2.jpg?w968

When will people finally say that is A BRIDGE TOO FAR

(afterall garden bridge does make one think of marketgarden).

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Boris fled Luxembourg after not getting his toy repaired. I am utterly disappointed - he should concentrate more on alternative solutions for North Ireland - and not on holiday schemes for Parliament. Makes a fool of all Brits. I just hope that some easy channel-crossing alternatives for you sailors might be possible.

 

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1 hour ago, Knut Grotzki said:

 

Boris fled Luxembourg after not getting his toy repaired. I am utterly disappointed - he should concentrate more on alternative solutions for North Ireland - and not on holiday schemes for Parliament. Makes a fool of all Brits. I just hope that some easy channel-crossing alternatives for you sailors might be possible.

 

That was some first-rate political theater (pre-Brexit spelling). 

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5 hours ago, spankoka said:

I think they would be willing to work for ROK level wages.  I think the problem here is that the technologies/cost controls used to build large vessels in Asia these days have already passed by UK yards. 

Maybe, maybe not:

(98/100) MARINE ENGINEER.


 Posted: 27 Jun 2019 

Busan    Engineers & Technicians    

Mechanical Engineer 
 
Bachelors Degree, 1-2 years: "Operaiting machinery, maintaining machinery"
Individual GROSS salary: 
KRW 49,000,000
US$ 46,201

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On 8/28/2019 at 9:45 PM, Flexible Demeanour said:

Ben Ainsleigh??

Ha!    We have Boris fucking Johnson, mate!

for the record: not when I wrote that more than 7 months ago...

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7 hours ago, Raz'r said:

I suppose if workers in the UK are willing to work for China wage levels....

Holland, Germany and Finland are high wage countries and yet they can compete on the world stage for ship building. So wage levels are not the problem. Workers from those countries who build ships are probably highly skilled and efficient and that cannot happen overnight. The only way ship building can become competitive in the UK will be for the government to waste excessive amounts of money paying over the odds for ships until the workforce becomes skilled and efficient enough to compete.

Even Corbyn might not be that stupid.

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4 hours ago, Knut Grotzki said:

 

Boris fled Luxembourg after not getting his toy repaired. I am utterly disappointed - he should concentrate more on alternative solutions for North Ireland - and not on holiday schemes for Parliament. Makes a fool of all Brits. I just hope that some easy channel-crossing alternatives for you sailors might be possible.

 

Bloody brilliant... Boris is looking stupider and stupider every day...

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24 minutes ago, hoppy said:

Holland, Germany and Finland are high wage countries and yet they can compete on the world stage for ship building. So wage levels are not the problem. Workers from those countries who build ships are probably highly skilled and efficient and that cannot happen overnight. The only way ship building can become competitive in the UK will be for the government to waste excessive amounts of money paying over the odds for ships until the workforce becomes skilled and efficient enough to compete.

Even Corbyn might not be that stupid.

It worked for Airbus...

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The quality of UK journalism sometimes defies imagination.

For example this article from the Guardian titled Johnson dependent on Labour MP votes for any Brexit deal indicating Westminister is now on a knife edge choosing between No Deal and a Deal.

However this is based entirely on May Deal votes 6 months ago and totaly ignores recent events incl a clear majority voting for the Benn Act opposing No Deal, a position which garners more support in Westminister as every day goes by.

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