Meat Wad

Brexit, WTF

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When is the pound going to crash ?  Could do with a 1 on 1 with the euro.......  or better.

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Rolls Royce (the car variety) has just reported their largest profit ever with record sales figures. Over 90% of components are sourced from the EU. 

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5 hours ago, Laser1 said:

When is the pound going to crash ?  Could do with a 1 on 1 with the euro.......  or better.

The pound is rallying.

It got all the way down to 1.25 vs the US Dollar but rallied today to 1.28.  Financial markets are starting to think that the mad hatter "brexit at any cost" no-dealists brigade are losing steam in parliament and that the two options are Soft Brexit or Delayed Brexit.

However the situation remains volatile.

 

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Europeans have benefitted from 70 years of sheltering behind the shield of the US.  Can’t say I blame them, it’s like the Canadians, choosing to gut their armed forces, really no point in funding something you never expect to use. Many excellent troops in most of the militaries, but their government priorities are as noted elsewhere, due to the luxury of standing down, and crony procurements yielding non compatible locally sourced weapon systems, just further negates effectiveness 

Trump’s called the NATO bet, and Putin’s applying extortion over the Natural gas, just when the Green investments are failing and sending energy prices to silly levels. France is seeing the Bourgeois in the streets, Hungary et al are fortifying borders, and who sweeps up after Frau Merkel ? 

Ms May has bollixed this up, to where there is no viable solution, and yet, you can’t un-ringthe bell.  

I’ll visit the few remaining area of interest, and hope you guys survive the next decade of upheavals.

We have our own Southern influx to deal with.  

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Rolls Royce (the car variety) has just reported their largest profit ever with record sales figures. Over 90% of components are sourced from the EU. 

Its a BMW brand.

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11 minutes ago, Mambo Kings said:

Its a BMW brand.

I'm sure the the 1,500 workers at the RR Goodwood plant in West Sussex are acutely aware of that, particularly those that don't speak German :-)

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25 minutes ago, LionessRacing said:

Europeans have benefitted from 70 years of sheltering behind the shield of the US. 

Although, to be fair, one feels somewhat safer in an embassy shielded by British  security forces. :ph34r:

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31 minutes ago, LionessRacing said:

Ms May has bollixed this up, to where there is no viable solution, and yet, you can’t un-ringthe bell.  

This is nearly a universal opinion inside and outside Europe. It conveys that May alone set the timing and strategy since the referendum result and has been given a free rein and unimpeded run by her own party with the full cooperation of the opposition. This is obviously horseshit.

Is it normal that a British PM carries this weight of responsibility?

 

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4 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Is it normal that a British PM carries this weight of responsibility?

Nobody forced her to implement Brexit, and to do so with scant support from the get-go. 

She could and should have declined to do so - now it's on her. 

(Full disclosure: I'm just an old gringo retired academic, and don't know any more about the intricacies of Brexit than Jack.) 

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14 minutes ago, AJ Oliver said:

Nobody forced her to implement Brexit, and to do so with scant support from the get-go. 

She could and should have declined to do so - now it's on her. 

AJ it is my understanding that she inherited the Brexit decision from Cameron (before he pulled up stumps) and Cameron with the support of his party and the Labour opposition, albeit Corbyn was reluctant to agree. A General Election was held along those lines and the Torys got back in, just, and now govern with the assistance of the Irish.

Seems to me the women is burdened by a lot decisions and agreements of others that now at the pointy end they all conveniently forget. That Rees Mogg a classic example when opposing a 2nd Referendum says a vote is a vote, but conveniently forgets he supported her as PM but now wants her out of the place.

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On 1/11/2019 at 11:39 AM, Mambo Kings said:

You are right, the GDP number is probably 1/5 higher (20%) due to multinationals.  But there is no doubting Ireland's incredible turnaround. They were demolished by the global credit crisis. By 2012, unemployment had reached a mind boggling 16%. Try and imagine 16 out of every 100 people ready willing and able to work unable to get a job.  Now it is close to 5%. By any measure their pragmatic, business friendly policies have worked.

My point about the backstop is that, for obvious reasons, it would be a disaster for Northern Ireland to close the border and have customs posts between Eire and NI.   Politically  (nobody wants to go back to border tensions), economically (one of the underinvested regions of the UK borders one of the wealthiest countries in Europe) and practically (it would be an impossible border to secure and an open invitation to organized crime and smuggling)......so what is the problem with a backstop which offers the UK a choice of a delay or creating a free trade zone in NI?  The hard Brexit brigade  still have failed to explain a third option. They just say they dont like the first two.

perfect, NI is a trade free zone, that fixes lots of issues, then the UK can have a hard brexit and just buy everything from NI

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7 hours ago, LionessRacing said:

Europeans have benefitted from 70 years of sheltering behind the shield of the US.  

Another view is that their governments haven't been so dominated by the interests of the military/industrial complex.

But there really is no connection between military considerations and Brexit. Two different things entirely.

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50 minutes ago, dogwatch said:

 

But there really is no connection between military considerations and Brexit. Two different things entirely.

Stop being so rational. There really is no room for common sense in the discussion about Brexit.

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3 hours ago, Sailabout said:

perfect, NI is a trade free zone, that fixes lots of issues, then the UK can have a hard brexit and just buy everything from NI

In a nutshell, that is one of the two options in the backstop agreement.

But the hard brexiteers, the "pull the plug and see what happens" crazies do not want any survivors. When the ship goes down , they want the whole ship to go down. They are adamantly opposed to any part of the UK remaining in the EU free trade zone.   To be fair, a lot of UK politicians including the deal friendly Brexiteers are very nervous about any arrangement that gives the appearance that NI is somehow separate from the rest of Britain. Once again, Lord Randolph Churchill infamous quote enters the political lexicon, "The orange card is the one to play"

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53 minutes ago, Mambo Kings said:

Stop being so rational. There really is no room for common sense in the discussion about Brexit.

Fuck off Mambo. I'm pretty sure about what I post here after increasing my medication.

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1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

Fuck off Mambo. I'm pretty sure about what I post here after increasing my medication.

Sorry Jack, if any doctor claims that she has got the balance of the meds right, I will just point her towards the Wild Oats thread. 

She will go away with head lowered muttering "more work to do here... maybe more Thorazine and Haloperidol but bring down the amphetamines...must keep trying"  :rolleyes:

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6 minutes ago, Mambo Kings said:

Sorry Jack, if any doctor claims that she has got the balance of the meds right, I will just point her towards the Wild Oats thread. 

That is like giving someone directions to the Zoo.

That said the Zoo, not Brexit regularly gets FP. The latest.

http://sailinganarchy.com/2019/01/11/strongly-worded/

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10 hours ago, LionessRacing said:

Europeans have benefitted from 70 years of sheltering behind the shield of the US.  Can’t say I blame them, it’s like the Canadians, choosing to gut their armed forces, really no point in funding something you never expect to use. Many excellent troops in most of the militaries, but their government priorities are as noted elsewhere, due to the luxury of standing down, and crony procurements yielding non compatible locally sourced weapon systems, just further negates effectiveness 

Trump’s called the NATO bet, and Putin’s applying extortion over the Natural gas, just when the Green investments are failing and sending energy prices to silly levels. France is seeing the Bourgeois in the streets, Hungary et al are fortifying borders, and who sweeps up after Frau Merkel ? 

Ms May has bollixed this up, to where there is no viable solution, and yet, you can’t un-ringthe bell.  

I’ll visit the few remaining area of interest, and hope you guys survive the next decade of upheavals.

We have our own Southern influx to deal with.  

At the moment in France, it isn't the "Bourgeois" who are in the street but the working classes. The green economy is doing very well, I am into sustainable buildings and we are doing well. It isn't so true for people doing stuff like concrete.

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According to FT, Crispin Odey has reversed his big bet against the UK and the pound.

His hedge fund was up 52% (+ $ 2.2 billion!) betting against UK stocks and the UK pound last year which more than paid for his  investment ($1.2 million) in funding the "Leave" campaign in 2016. 

Now he has closed the negative bet and is going long on UK stocks and currency because he thinks Brexit will be postponed.

"Markets have already decided essentially that Brexit isn’t going to happen,” he said. “The pound should rally; it’s very oversold.”

https://www.ft.com/content/cc491f18-15bc-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e

Presumably he will fund the Remain campaign this time?

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Odey took a view against conventional wisdom (most thought the UK would vote to remain in 2016) and bet the Leave vote would win by going massively short of the UK. He helped his bet work by giving over a million dollars to support the Brexit campaign. On the morning after the vote was announced...as the UK currency and stock markets collapsed... he was interviewed by the BBC and famously said:

"There’s that Italian expression... ‘Al mattino ha l'oro in bocca’ – the morning has gold in its mouth – and never has one felt so much that idea as this morning really.” 

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^ not sure if that is good or bad for the world but it makes me think about Byng's fate.

Pour encourager les autres

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Just off the wire. Webster's need to update their Dictionary with a term now called "Moggmentum".  Seems we need to be prepared for "Moggcasts" ramping up. He may be a complete economic fucktard devoid of any real life experience beyond his Nanny driving him around , but his understanding about selling a Brexit message is probably without peer.

 

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Most of the political entertainment  is on the Western side of the EU led by comedian stars like Rees-Mogg, BUT the theatre of the absurd is alive and well on the Eastern side of the EU as well.

The Republic of Macedonia has wanted to join the EU and Nato for the last 20 years but Greece has vigorously opposed this. The reason for their opposition?  Its not economic. There are no longstanding disputes over natural gas or rail routes. Its not military (Macedonia's armed forces comprises 8,055 active personnel) . Nope.....the reason is - gasp!- Greece objects to the name of the country, (because they have a region in Greece also called Macedonia.)

After years of negotiation, mediated by EU and NATO officials......they came up with a compromise.

The Republic of Macedonia would change its name to the Republic of Northern Macedonia! 

  Macedonia had a toughly fought referendum and, by 1 vote in parliament, agreed to the name change on Jan11 th.

  The Greek government were then meant to vote on approving the name change and allow RNM to join the EU......BUT today the leader of The Greek nationalist party (one of the two coalition parties in government) has resigned from his ministerial post and joined the opposition party in opposing the ratification of the name change. They are vigorously opposed to the  Macedonians calling themselves Macedonians and calling their language Macedonian. Rees-Mogg would be proud of them.  The government has been thrown into turmoil. There are threats of a no-confidence votefor the prime minister and the Greeks are once again out on the streets in mass protest (a favorite occupation of Greeks). 

You could not make this stuff up.

Quote

Mr. Kammenos and other Greek nationalists say the name Macedonia belongs exclusively to Greece’s region of that name,  home of Alexander the Great. “Our clear and indisputable position is: no use of the term ‘Macedonia’”  Mr. Kammenos said on Sunday. “We have to say the big No.

It is surreal.

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Can you imagine anyone suggesting to Mexico that they need to find a new name if they want to stay in NAFTA because the US has a state called New Mexico.? 

On second thoughts...dont answer that.

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You've got to love the self deprecating British sense of humour.

 

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2 hours ago, Mambo Kings said:

Most of the political entertainment  is on the Western side of the EU led by comedian stars like Rees-Mogg, BUT the theatre of the absurd is alive and well on the Eastern side of the EU as well.

The Republic of Macedonia has wanted to join the EU and Nato for the last 20 years but Greece has vigorously opposed this. The reason for their opposition?  Its not economic. There are no longstanding disputes over natural gas or rail routes. Its not military (Macedonia's armed forces comprises 8,055 active personnel) . Nope.....the reason is - gasp!- Greece objects to the name of the country, (because they have a region in Greece also called Macedonia.)

After years of negotiation, mediated by EU and NATO officials......they came up with a compromise.

The Republic of Macedonia would change its name to the Republic of Northern Macedonia! 

  Macedonia had a toughly fought referendum and, by 1 vote in parliament, agreed to the name change on Jan11 th.

  The Greek government were then meant to vote on approving the name change and allow RNM to join the EU......BUT today the leader of The Greek nationalist party (one of the two coalition parties in government) has resigned from his ministerial post and joined the opposition party in opposing the ratification of the name change. They are vigorously opposed to the  Macedonians calling themselves Macedonians and calling their language Macedonian. Rees-Mogg would be proud of them.  The government has been thrown into turmoil. There are threats of a no-confidence votefor the prime minister and the Greeks are once again out on the streets in mass protest (a favorite occupation of Greeks). 

You could not make this stuff up.

It is surreal.

surreal as it may look from a distance, consider following : in ancient times there was just one Macedonia, as an outcome of history there is now a part of Macedonia in Greece and one just next door. So which one is the real Macedonia ? worst case scenario for the Greek -and the reason for this seemingly weird dispute- is that once the Republic of Macedonia gets itself legitimised it might start claiming the Greek part to be reunited to them.

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Watched the docu-drama 'Brexit the uncivil war' last night.  From the get-go remain didn't stand a chance in reversing the anti-EU feelings that were rife in society.  For 40 years British politicians have been blaming and slagging off the EU for their own multitude of failings so what do you expect?  All the electorate needed was a tiny push from Leave and Cummins orchestrated that masterfully. Brilliant to see that Farage and Banks were maneuvered into doing the dirty work.  

Still it is outrageous that even in the piece it is plain to see that all the claims were shaky at best down to outright lies. And still nobody with a grain of backbone left calls Bojo, IDS, Gove and the rest of their cronies to order.  They should be locked up, throw away the key and the vote declared invalid.

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And, OK off topic a bit of French for those who can and those who appreciate Edith Piaf and/or Coluche. Music is great for protest and parody. Come back Joan Baez and that generation over there.

 

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3 hours ago, Laser1 said:

Watched the docu-drama 'Brexit the uncivil war' last night.  From the get-go remain didn't stand a chance in reversing the anti-EU feelings that were rife in society.  For 40 years British politicians have been blaming and slagging off the EU for their own multitude of failings so what do you expect?  All the electorate needed was a tiny push from Leave and Cummins orchestrated that masterfully. Brilliant to see that Farage and Banks were maneuvered into doing the dirty work.  

Still it is outrageous that even in the piece it is plain to see that all the claims were shaky at best down to outright lies. And still nobody with a grain of backbone left calls Bojo, IDS, Gove and the rest of their cronies to order.  They should be locked up, throw away the key and the vote declared invalid.

Both sides lied, standard political practice in every democracy, so why should this time be outrageous. In the last election the vast majority had, as part of their platform, an agreement to follow through with the result and ensure Brexit happened. Any outrage should be directed at those that, once elected have done everything to go back on their word. 

But once again, just bullshit lies from those that want to lead us. Plus the standard outrage from those that don’t agree with a referendum. Democracy is on its last legs and is getting knifed by those that weep and wail if it doesn’t do as they want. They would welcome a dictator rather than have to admit they may not be right. 

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47 minutes ago, LionessRacing said:

https://m.facebook.com/Northumberland-Heath-Police-251579558600724/

the thread about the sword  explains all 

Someone better tell the English they aren't free citizens. Little wonder the gun lobby has the US under its thumb.

"In these comments it's usually easy to spot the English people with their stupid uninformed opinions about guns.  It's sad that most English prefer to be subjects of the crown instead of free citizens."

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19 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

someone better tell the English they aren't free citizens.

it's a bit late for that, sadly

 

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2 hours ago, Gissie said:

...Any outrage should be directed at those that, once elected have done everything to go back on their word. 

But once again, just bullshit lies from those that want to lead us. Plus the standard outrage from those that don’t agree with a referendum....

Forgive my ignorance but who are these people who have gone back on their word?

The government have followed through on their election promise. The position of the opposition hasn't changed. Individual MP's having either a remainer or leaver position, usually consistent with their electorate, don't  seem to have changed their position.

The Labour party are pushing for a General Election to do exactly as the current government is doing, being a negotiated Brexit.

The only people I can think you may be referring to is any MP now advocating a 2nd Referendum if it goes tits up, albeit that subject didn't exist at the General Election so not really a broken promise?

 

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14 minutes ago, LionessRacing said:

it's a bit late for that, sadly

Is it also too late to tell some of the 2.34 billion people in the 52 Commonwealth countries outside the UK and that make up nearly a third of the world population that their subjects of the crown and not free citizens? 

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The Commonwealth countries are a lovely anachronism, and perhaps the best defense of enlightened colonialism. The romantic affinity for the empire of yore is testimony to the value of tradition, even when for example; your's was the dumping ground of the transportees. Nobless Oblige has been an notable attribute of the Windsor's, if not so much the Plantagenets, Tudors, Stewarts and Hanoverians. 

 

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1 hour ago, LionessRacing said:

Nobless Oblige has been an notable attribute of the Windsor's, if not so much the Plantagenets, Tudors, Stewarts and Hanoverians. 

You forgot things Faustian. Seems some Remainer rebels are planning a coup to stop Brexit going ahead presumably with the assistance of the Speaker (who is a Remainer).

You can't make this stuff up.

https%3A%2F%2Fwww.standard.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Fbrexit-news-tory-rebels-plot-dramatic-coup-to-seize-control-of-brexit-and-sideline-theresa-may-a4037376.html&psig=AOvVaw16w2BsNXFbv-P_EejF_MiP&ust=1547522495274370

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Forgive my ignorance but who are these people who have gone back on their word?

The government have followed through on their election promise. The position of the opposition hasn't changed. Individual MP's having either a remainer or leaver position, usually consistent with their electorate, don't  seem to have changed their position.

The Labour party are pushing for a General Election to do exactly as the current government is doing, being a negotiated Brexit.

The only people I can think you may be referring to is any MP now advocating a 2nd Referendum if it goes tits up, albeit that subject didn't exist at the General Election so not really a broken promise?

 

Both the Tories and Labour agreed to follow through with Brexit during the last election. In general, unless a vote of conscience this means the people standing for election agreed. To now try and change a century of parliamentary systems would indicate that a lot of them lied throttheir teeth to get the job. 

You will also find that many of those doing their best to de-rail things are going against how their electorate voted. Hopefully they get punished next election. 

I don’t have a dog in this race. However I do find the behaviour of both extreme sides to be an insult to the British people. It is also an example of how weak democracy is. 

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17 minutes ago, Gissie said:

You will also find that many of those doing their best to de-rail things are going against how their electorate voted. Hopefully they get punished next election. 

It is pretty weird though for some MP's when their individual electorates are clearly in the majority in favour of a position opposite to that of their traditional choice of party. It puts that local MP in more than a bind.

I can't be sure but I think the Labour party has more disfunctional seats like this than the Torys. It makes for a horrible mess what ever way you slice it and the Labor party thinking a General Election is the answer is beyond me. This alone will  produce MP's caught between their electrorate and party having differing views.

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31 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

It is pretty weird though for some MP's when their individual electorates are clearly in the majority in favour of a position opposite to that of their traditional choice of party. It puts that local MP in more than a bind.

I can't be sure but I think the Labour party has more disfunctional seats like this than the Torys. It makes for a horrible mess what ever way you slice it and the Labor party thinking a General Election is the answer is beyond me. This alone will  produce MP's caught between their electrorate and party having differing views.

Agree, if Labour had a half decent leader they would most likely be in power. As for the general shit fight, maybe they have been getting lessons from Aussie parliament. :D

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1 minute ago, Gissie said:

Agree, if Labour had a half decent leader they would most likely be in power. As for the general shit fight, maybe they have been getting lessons from Aussie parliament. :D

Actually Aussie parliament works very well remembering unlike the UK House of Lords their upper house or Senate are elected representatives. However you are no doubt referring to the leadership revolving door for their two major parties. Yes that is a national disgrace.

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3 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Actually Aussie parliament works very well remembering unlike the UK House of Lords their upper house or Senate are elected representatives. However you are no doubt referring to the leadership revolving door for their two major parties. Yes that is a national disgrace.

Yeah, appears to work well, apart from who has the top spot. 

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It seems to me a lot of talk is centred on impacts to the UK and less on other members of the EU.

It seems to me the Netherlands may be the one that bears the brunt of the impact. I think around 20% of their exports now go to the UK then over and above that there is the huge amount coming from elsewhere in the EU that goes out of say via Rotterdam to the UK.

The current convenience factor on both sides of the Channel/Nth Sea are huge. For instance in Manchester a florist can order fresh flowers or a supermarket fresh produce in the early morning and get them that afternoon from the Netherlands . The truck taking them might only have a 15 minute wait to get on the Ferry.

Post a No Deal Brexit the customs fence goes up needing appropriate manpower and infrastructure in the EU. That infrastructure includes roadworks for trucks to line up that is currently not there as not needed. 

Do the good people of Manchester know that those same day fresh flowers and vegetables they so do love are now going to arrive the next day at best, cost more and not be so bright and firm?

My guess is they have no idea and won't do so until it has happened. They then for the first time go "what the fuck".

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

It is pretty weird though for some MP's when their individual electorates are clearly in the majority in favour of a position opposite to that of their traditional choice of party. It puts that local MP in more than a bind.

I can't be sure but I think the Labour party has more disfunctional seats like this than the Torys. It makes for a horrible mess what ever way you slice it and the Labor party thinking a General Election is the answer is beyond me. This alone will  produce MP's caught between their electrorate and party having differing views.

IMHO That's probably due to the 2 party system. If STV had passed, smaller parties would be able to cater for those constituencies not ideologically aligned with the big parties.

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5 hours ago, Gissie said:

Both the Tories and Labour agreed to follow through with Brexit during the last election. In general, unless a vote of conscience this means the people standing for election agreed. To now try and change a century of parliamentary systems would indicate that a lot of them lied throttheir teeth to get the job. 

You will also find that many of those doing their best to de-rail things are going against how their electorate voted. Hopefully they get punished next election. 

I don’t have a dog in this race. However I do find the behaviour of both extreme sides to be an insult to the British people. It is also an example of how weak democracy is. 

The labour manifesto did not promise to unconditionally follow through on the Brexit referendum. It set out a position that would be required for exit tied to maintenance of free trade and workers rights. One entirely consistent with the current position of the parliamentary Labour party as the May deal fails on both scores.

The result of the last general election was a massive swing to Labour, and there for this position. Just not quite enough to for a coalition, which forced the Brexit process into the hands of the DUP. Most realised what a disaster that was within about 6hrs of the result.

The referendum was widely known to be advisory and that assent of parliament was required next.

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38 minutes ago, rgeek said:

The labour manifesto did not promise to unconditionally follow through on the Brexit referendum. It set out a position that would be required for exit tied to maintenance of free trade and workers rights. One entirely consistent with the current position of the parliamentary Labour party as the May deal fails on both scores.

The result of the last general election was a massive swing to Labour, and there for this position.

While correct that is not entirely accurate as to the result of the election.

It was the Conservative party's lacklustre and pathetic campaign that killed them at the election. It was Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill, May's co-chiefs of staff who formed part of the leader's small inner circle also comprising outside advisors Sir Lynton Crosby and Mark Textor, interestingly Australian political strategists for the Liberal Party in Australia.

That inner circle completely cocked it up and produced a political in goal where the Labour Party didn't even have to run on to the field of play.

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3 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

While correct that is not entirely accurate as to the result of the election.

It was the Conservative party's lacklustre and pathetic campaign that killed them at the election. It was Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill, May's co-chiefs of staff who formed part of the leader's small inner circle also comprising outside advisors Sir Lynton Keith Crosby and Mark Textor, interestingly Australian political strategists for the Liberal Party in Australia.

That inner circle completely cocked it up.

Same could be argued for the referendum result.

Big big fight by the Corbynistas at the election though. There was a very serious campaign on the ground that deserves credit.

 

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7 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Is it also too late to tell some of the 2.34 billion people in the 52 Commonwealth countries outside the UK and that make up nearly a third of the world population that their subjects of the crown and not free citizens? 

Wasn't the change of British Citizen status triggered when each colony declared it's independence and put in place it's own citizenship status? More British citizenship being rejected rather than withdrawn?

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54 minutes ago, rgeek said:

Wasn't the change of British Citizen status triggered when each colony declared it's independence and put in place it's own citizenship status? More British citizenship being rejected rather than withdrawn?

Geek that reply I made to @LionessRacing tongue in cheek using Commonweath nations was in response to his bizzare concurrence to some American fools opinion that somehow British residents are "subjects of the Crown" and therefore not "free citizens" unlike an American. 

I didn't delve into British Citizenship status that you now bring up. However as you have.

Ignoring changes made around 40 years ago corresponding to the period the UK entering the EU that stripped Commonwealth Citizens and so British Subjects rights to things like residency and work permits etc in the UK, this may surprise many.

I happen to have two passports where one says I'm an Australian Citizen & British Subject, the other I'm a British Citizen and a British Subject. So two documents saying I'm a British Subject and according to @LionessRacing unlike him, I'm not a "free citizen". My objection to that on behalf of a fellow 2.34 billion people in the 52 Commonwealth countries outside the UK, some may say was subdued. :-)

So with with a no deal Brexit I'm going to be fucked over twice.

I had always imagined having 2 passports to be usefull if you had to leg it quickly out of a country, like after getting the King's daughter or wife pregnant, or god forbid both. Anyway the digital world makes that next to impossible as international airlines are the first gate keeper for departures as they get into trouble at the other end of they sell tickets to people not properly papered up. At immigration departure and arrival they are asking for my second one before even fessing up to having more than one. Data bases it seems are shared far more widely than we think.

About the only use now of 2 passports for me thanks to Brexit is deciding which one to hand over to the guy at the front of plane with a tea towel on his head holding a gun. I'm hoping then @LionessRacing is on board with a few other Americans.

Anyway I have digressed.

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INterestign the Indian governments' reaction to Brexit and a hoped-for free trade deal with India as a result: sure, so long as there is free movement 

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^

Freer movement e.g. restoration of 2 year work permit for students after graduation, which used to exist but was abolished. Nobody expects free movement of labour between UK and India. But no, I don't think many leave voters thought they were voting for more immigration from India.

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

It seems to me the Netherlands may be the one that bears the brunt of the impact. I think around 20% of their exports now go to the UK then over and above that there is the huge amount coming from elsewhere in the EU that goes out of say via Rotterdam to the UK.

Not to bad according to research here;
No Deal, 2019  0.5 procent lesser GDP, and looking all the way to 2030,  a 1.25 up to 2.5 procent less growth. Survivable.

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46 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Not to bad according to research here;
No Deal, 2019  0.5 procent lesser GDP, and looking all the way to 2030,  a 1.25 up to 2.5 procent less growth. Survivable.

Leo while it is survivable. Your current GDP growth is hovering just above a healthy 3%. An instantaneous 0.5% Brexit reduction is a 15% kick in the balls where plus or minus is measured in fractions and incur pain and can change Governments in terms of their economic credentials.

That said my reading is the Netherlands are the most prepared of any EU country for Brexit in all its forms. Possibly for the reasons I have articulated. For instance I hear planning for over a year now to have an extra 1,000 customs personnel up and running to mitigate impact to GDP to the minus 0.5% you state.

This is all because a crowd across the Nth Sea are all drinking loony soup and couldn't organise a kick in a stampede.

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Yep, 1000 extra custom personnel, half of them in training now, still looking for people though.

The UK looks more like a country that will be divided for decades.
Oh, Boris Johnson just said he knows more of car building then the CEO of Jaguar...

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1 hour ago, dogwatch said:

^

Freer movement e.g. restoration of 2 year work permit for students after graduation, which used to exist but was abolished. Nobody expects free movement of labour between UK and India. But no, I don't think many leave voters thought they were voting for more immigration from India.

There was a significant leave vote in those communities. Don't be surprised to see additional pressure around free movement of labour from commonwealth countries. Judging by here there is a strong feeling about it!

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46 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Oh, Boris Johnson just said he knows more of car building then the CEO of Jaguar...

He says likewise for Tesla, but asking where they hide their exhaust pipe?

bjn7.jpg

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10 minutes ago, rgeek said:

There was a significant leave vote in those communities. Don't be surprised to see additional pressure around free movement of labour from commonwealth countries. Judging by here there is a strong feeling about it!

The population of India is 20 times that of the UK. UK GDP per capita is 20 times that of India which makes the direction of movement one-way. There isn't a snowball in hell's chance of free movement of labour between the UK and India. Freer than today, quite possibly. The Indian diaspora in the UK is wealthier and better educated than the population as a whole, although those who think one brown face looks much like another may not grasp that.

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Quote

So-called Brexit survival kits costing almost £300 are being sold ahead of the UK leaving the EU.

The packs include enough freeze-dried food to last 30 days, a water filter and fire starting gel.

Lynda Mayall, 61, said she bought a box to supplement her stocks of tinned food and toilet roll as she feared there may be "chaos" in the months after Brexit.

A government spokesperson said there was "no need" to stockpile any of the items in the box.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-46814527

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28 minutes ago, dogwatch said:

There isn't a snowball in hell's chance of free movement of labour between the UK and India. 

Except for one of the prices that India sets for say a trade agreement that the UK is desperate to make post Brexit. It is 5 letters, starts with V and ends with S.

I hope those anti migration leavers like curry.

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If there are visas then there isn't free movement. As I keep saying, freer than today, quite possibly.

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Junkers stepping up to help May, is that because:

1. He genuinely is trying to help the UK?

2. No deal is very good deal for the UK so he needs to prevent it?

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52 minutes ago, Sailabout said:

Junkers stepping up to help May, is that because:

1. He genuinely is trying to help the UK?

2. No deal is very good deal for the UK so he needs to prevent it?

Going with option 3...

I believe "No Deal" is very expensive for EU (even if it is probably worse for UK as a whole with larger impact) and he has a duty of care towards the EU-citizens that are living in the UK. So more important than "helping May" or preventing a "good deal" for UK, I believe the focus is still very much on the very best outcome for himself (EU). I thought there was a very fair opinion peace in the guardian (about "common people" not giving very much about Brexit anymore) and in general it seems politics as a whole (not only UK, or EU, or USA) is failing to represent the electorate with focus on issues that not align with day-to-day struggles of us lot.

Links: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/14/nation-bored-brexit-uk-voters-sleepwalking-disaster & https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/14/mps-voters-may-brexit-deal-tuesday-vote

--EDIT--
Damn... I actually commented on a political topic... And with an opinion. 

Will be interesting how this is going to work for the various shipyards in Blighty: Pendennis/Oyster/Spirit/Sunseeker/... if it all goes pear-shaped March 29, they'll get hit by 20-25% additional duties on all the gear they are importing (sails/rigs/hardware/...)

--/EDIT--

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Except for one of the prices that India sets for say a trade agreement that the UK is desperate to make post Brexit. It is 5 letters, starts with V and ends with S.

I hope those anti migration leavers like curry.

 

1 hour ago, dogwatch said:

If there are visas then there isn't free movement. As I keep saying, freer than today, quite possibly.

I think the point isn't that the UK can allow free movement from India, it is that India won't give any kind of positive trade deal to the UK without significant immigration concessions, and thus another potentially positive trade opportunity is compromised. This seems to be the case, for different reasons, with every country the UK must trade with in a post Brexit environment.

EU-India trade deal talks stalled five years ago because the UK objected to immigration and whisky, but the EU and India are meeting again to renew these efforts as these objections are less critical, and Brexit is seen as an opportunity by both sides. In this environment the UK is not a priority for India, so they can afford to play hardball.

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45 minutes ago, Sailabout said:

Junkers stepping up to help May, is that because:

1. He genuinely is trying to help the UK?

2. No deal is very good deal for the UK so he needs to prevent it?

Is this the "help" that consists of reporting on a single speech 3 days ago that has only been reported on in that way in the UK press?

Here it's reported as "EU letter reinforces that backstop is 'suboptimal' and tempory" and "EU confirms no change in withdrawal agreement possible".

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Yep, deal is almost the same as in feb 2017 became clear. So May's deal get downvoted tomorrow and weeks of arguing will follow, maybe a second vote on the deal, maybe an election, maybe  maybe maybe.

Oh, the EU got a new anti money laundry directive in place today, 24 months to make it in national law.
Tax evasion by using Isle of Man, Guernsey and British Virgin Islands will get harder.

At least a funny bit:

9m ago 17:15

Sir Desmond Swayne, the Tory Brexiter, says that to guarantee Brexit, she should prorogue parliament until April. “Tempting, isn’t it?”

May jokes that it is tempting.

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7 hours ago, LeoV said:

Yep, deal is almost the same as in feb 2017 became clear. So May's deal get downvoted tomorrow and weeks of arguing will follow, maybe a second vote on the deal, maybe an election, maybe  maybe maybe.

Oh, the EU got a new anti money laundry directive in place today, 24 months to make it in national law.
Tax evasion by using Isle of Man, Guernsey and British Virgin Islands will get harder.

At least a funny bit:

9m ago 17:15

Sir Desmond Swayne, the Tory Brexiter, says that to guarantee Brexit, she should prorogue parliament until April. “Tempting, isn’t it?”

May jokes that it is tempting.

The definition of tax evasion by the EU is anyone that runs their countries well enough that the tax rates are lower
In that regard most tax minimization in the EU are corporates domiciled in Ireland, oops thats in the EU ( Do numbered bank accounts still exist in Austria)

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Secret numbered bank accounts is now James Bond folklore. They are now reported (if over €10k?) and your country of taxation can sieze the proceeds etc. 

BTW when did Greece get a tax rate?

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Well......It starts to liven up tomorrow. May's deal goes to a vote.  The smart money says she doesnt get a majority. Then she has 3 days to come back with an alternate proposal.

If the alternate proposal is rejected....then the process gets delegated to parliament.

That could lead to either:-

(1) A lot of horse trading in smoke filled rooms

or (2) General Election.

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2 hours ago, Mambo Kings said:

Well......It starts to liven up tomorrow. May's deal goes to a vote.  The smart money says she doesnt get a majority. Then she has 3 days to come back with an alternate proposal.

If the alternate proposal is rejected....then the process gets delegated to parliament.

That could lead to either:-

(1) A lot of horse trading in smoke filled rooms

or (2) General Election.

Of only it was that easy. This thing is like a Rubix Cube. Remember her having to put a proposal to advanced second vote is not a foregone conclusion just yet, even though some Brexiteers believe this second vote was cooked up by her and not by some rebel MP Remainers.

1. First it is nearly guaranteed the May deal will fail on the floor of parliament. All she can do and hope for now is limit the defeat. Her only ammunition is appealing to Brexiteers that to do otherwise it is more likely staying in the EU will be the outcome and not a No Deal Brexit.

2. From here it will depend on the voting outcome.

(a) She Wins. Will go down as one of the greatest political coups in British political history. Next to zero probabilty but this is  weird, not normal territory.

(b) Defeated by say less than 50. Some would call this nearly a win and encourage those who want her to put a fresh proposal to MP's to vote again.

(c) Defeated by say less than 100. Still far better than expected raising prospects of a proposal for a 2nd vote. If she was to secure some 11th hour concessions from Brussels (who could well be sitting on some just for this purpose) this raises the prospects of a proposal for a second vote suceeding. An extension by the EU to Article 50 to push Brexit Day back is an obvious lifeline for May.

(d) Defeated by more than say 150. She and the Government are in deep shit. This gives oxygen to the Labour Party to move a no confidence vote in the Government and a General Election.

(e) Defeated by more than say 200. She is fucked and might as well hand the keys over to No 10. Her most staunchist opponents within the Government are beavering away to secure this outcome.

Finally overlying all that is the prospect of a 2nd Referendum being raised in Parliament to further muddy what happens next. It would no doubt occur if the Labour Party sought to move a no confidence vote.

Interesting times.

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PS. There doesn't have to be a General Election providing a party can demonstrate they have a majority to form a government.

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what could change with a change of gov, same EU UK brexit deal, same date set?

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Well if Labour try and prosecute a May Brexit deal unchanged they will probably go down in the record books as the shortest government term in UK history.

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3 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Well if Labour try and prosecute a May Brexit deal unchanged they will probably go down in the record books as the shortest government term in UK history.

makes me wonder if the EU dont want a hard brexit they will extend the time or renegotiate?
Not yet seen much  info on a hard brexit and could NI become a free trade zone?
 

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7 minutes ago, Sailabout said:


Not yet seen much  info on a hard brexit and could NI become a free trade zone?
 

If you haven't even investigated a hard Brexit then why do you pretend to be such an expert on the whole process?

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I believe the EU are hopeing it will all fall to pieces and we will stay in, they want the money,. That is why they've made it so difficult..

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30 minutes ago, Curious said:

If you haven't even investigated a hard Brexit then why do you pretend to be such an expert on the whole process?

tried to and too much BS on what the WTO terms mean with no citations just opinions. WTO rules just mean you have to treat everyone on the same terms,

hence the UK could go zero tariff, there would be some winners and loosers but the UK will survive with a path to the future

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1 hour ago, Sailabout said:

hence the UK could go zero tariff, there would be some winners and loosers but the UK will survive with a path to the future

Name all G7 countries that have zero tarrifs and for what?

That thought and nothing more, no examples, no research and no independent quantitative economic and social analysis is shared by the vast majority of Leavers. Even the champion Leaver Rees Mogg struggles getting beyond this "no evidentiary" point.

At least you are in the fine company of wishful thinkers, convinced no arms is only a flesh wound.

 

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Name all G7 countries that have zero tarrifs and for what?

That thought and nothing more, no examples, no research and no independent quantitative economic and social analysis is shared by the vast majority of Leavers. Even the champion Leaver Rees Mogg struggles getting beyond this "no evidentiary" point.

At least you are in the fine company of wishful thinkers, convinced no arms is only a flesh wound.

 

plenty have zero tariffs for industries they dont have so nothing to protect.
Whats the big deal with WTO rules, it how the world runs, so UK cars will get hit with std EU import tariffs and a few other industries.
The EU is 45% of UK trade and falling, where would you make a future bet?

What do you want a lifetime guarantee, hows Europe looking if Deutsche Bank gown under, how was it in 2008 crash, the 2000 tech crash, 1997 crash, 1987

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It is all about how big the defeat will be. It is all a political game.
Lose with 223 votes is my guess.

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1 hour ago, Sailabout said:

tried to and too much BS on what the WTO terms mean with no citations just opinions. WTO rules just mean you have to treat everyone on the same terms,

hence the UK could go zero tariff, there would be some winners and loosers but the UK will survive with a path to the future

If the UK leaves the EU without first establishing trade treaties with all of its trading parties, then the UK will automatically default to third country status with each nation.  This is the default tariff that nations have for a country that has not got a trade agreement....it is ALWAYS higher than the customs duty on goods subject to trade agreements.   

In reality, this is not going to happen. The UK is not an African dictatorship.  If the UK fails to sign any trade agreements. The UK will rush around and do emergency temporary trade deals. They wont be good but they will be better than no trade deal. Then over the following 5 or so years (they take a lot of negotiating)…..the UK will gradually negotiate trade agreements like every other developed trading bloc. The US has always had a gripe about the UK and would likely require better terms than current terms.  

The UK will have a less than attractive negotiating position.  The will be winners and a loser (the UK). 

The UK is not going to zero tariffs on imported goods while paying default tariffs on exported goods. It would be economic suicide.

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Looks like a sequence of binary options from here:

May deal? I think we're all expecting a no but you never know.

Followed by withdrawal of article 50? There looks to be a huge majority for that.

Then a second referendum? Would expect a vote on that to fail.

Then what? If the tories run straight into a leadership election and a no-dealer wins then it will trigger a no-confidence motion in the house. Never say never but not expecting that for that reason. If we take it at face value that May will not fight another election then, that blocks a snap election also.

So May to stagger on "to allow a period of reflection"?

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2 minutes ago, IPLore said:

If the UK leaves the EU without first establishing trade treaties with all of its trading parties, then the UK will automatically default to third country status with each nation.  This is the default tariff that nations have for a country that has not got a trade agreement....it is ALWAYS higher than the customs duty on goods subject to trade agreements.   

In reality, this is not going to happen. The UK is not an African dictatorship.  If the UK fails to sign any trade agreements. The UK will rush around and do emergency temporary trade deals. They wont be good but they will be better than no trade deal. Then over the following 5 or so years (they take a lot of negotiating)…..the UK will gradually negotiate trade agreements like every other developed trading bloc. The US has always had a gripe about the UK and would likely require better terms than current terms.  

The UK will have a less than attractive negotiating position.  The will be winners and a loser (the UK). 

The UK is not going to zero tariffs on imported goods while paying default tariffs on exported goods. It would be economic suicide.

love to see where I can find that on the WTO web site and its sounds contra to what the WTO's mandate is.
You are saying a country can apply 2 different levels of tariffs to different countries?
I can see Singapore does lots of trade with countries it doesnt have trade agreements with and its all zero

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2 minutes ago, rgeek said:

Looks like a sequence of binary options from here:

May deal? I think we're all expecting a no but you never know.

Followed by withdrawal of article 50? There looks to be a huge majority for that.

Then a second referendum? Would expect a vote on that to fail.

Then what? If the tories run straight into a leadership election and a no-dealer wins then it will trigger a no-confidence motion in the house. Never say never but not expecting that for that reason. If we take it at face value that May will not fight another election then, that blocks a snap election also.

So May to stagger on "to allow a period of reflection"?

A decade of reflection would change everything.  The demographics work against the Leavers. They know if they don't get out now, in ten years there would be a majority in favor of staying in.   

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1 minute ago, Sailabout said:

love to see where I can find that on the WTO web site and its sounds contra to what th