Meat Wad

Brexit, WTF

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PS. I forgot to add the bleeding obvious. This article is the bones for the opposition to take up these claims against Downing Street in Parliament.

They won't for the simple reason they do exactly the same thing from time to time and probably using the same media conduits. Though I have to say they are not as good at doing it and it very much a tool of the conservative side of politics world wide as this guy points out.

https://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2003/10/27_lakoff.shtml

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5 hours ago, LeoV said:

Macron said he didn't like it, but he'd have to go along with it.

ich nichten lichten

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6 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

/snip

They have no plan, just move brinkmanship pieces around the board and see what pops up.

snip/

Well, chess is about brinksmanship and power.  Go is about patience and process.  Parliament is playing go and boris is pretending to play chess with draughts pieces.  They move a draught diagonally and discover that they are surrounded by black stones.  Its painful to watch, honestly.

I do not understand why there isn't more noise about how seriously broken this all is.  When I take friends (including leavers) through the various technical arguments against the brexit process (not even getting into outcomes or impacts), I universally get a "hmmm I didn't know that, that changes things" response.  But the so called media is not doing any of this work.  The voices in the wilderness - e.g. Ivan Rogers - have been speaking about this stuff for years.  Why aren't the people of England listening?  And why isn't the opposition acting on this.  Something in the water?  Lead pipes?  Mercury laced dyes?  Surely not BSE...

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1 hour ago, crashdog said:

  Why aren't the people of England listening? And why isn't the opposition acting on this.  Something in the water?  Lead pipes?  Mercury laced dyes?  Surely not BSE. . .

Nah it's simple. It starts with a innocent recommendation from a trusted friend....then before you know it one in two people you know are members...it's like trojan ebola and once you've joined you can't escape. Bloody brilliant democratic wrecking formula.

My guess it will all come to sticky end in a Central American jungle..solving both UK population and mean IQ numbers.

GX1F.gif

 

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Nah it's simple. It starts with a innocent recommendation from a trusted friend....then before you know it one in two people you know are members...it's like trojan ebola and once you've joined you can't escape. Bloody brilliant democratic wrecking formula.

My guess it will all come to sticky end in a Central American jungle..solving both UK population and mean IQ numbers.

GX1F.gif

 

No need to go to the jungle, just go back to fine native traditions...

 

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Comic Sans font....very fitting.

Any breeches by digital and social media campaigns of lobbying regulator rules, like 2016 won't be exposed until it's all over and too late.

 

 

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9 hours ago, mad said:

It’s almost as if people are maybe thinking it wasn’t a good idea after all??.  Anybody else getting this feeling? 

One would hope that those continuing extension would finally motivate the Remainers to go onto the streets in huge numbers. Last Saturday was a beginning put the pressure needs to continue and even get bigger over the coming weeks. Nifty EU tactic ;)

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7 minutes ago, Marty6 said:

. Last Saturday was a beginning put the pressure needs to continue and even get bigger over the coming weeks. Nifty EU tactic ;)

They should go straight to the Blue Book for tips on how to lobby conservative Government's.

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9 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

He is the gift which keeps on giving

 

 

He’s only here for Twitter entertainment factor. :P

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Seems this article "British journalists have become part of Johnson’s fake news machine" (described at end of previous page) has caused #10's Mata Hari to be more carefull when constructing their "#10 framing" for diverting attention. This one is very smart. 

She shares the "delay blame" 50/50.

Either that or she hit her head and forgot the sole reason WAB isn't going anywhere is because Boris "suspended" it.

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2 hours ago, crashdog said:

Why aren't the people of England listening? 

This is the biggest question. Seems to be so much laziness to trust what their leader says so you do not have to think for yourselves.
Saw yesterday a vid of a flower importer who's business is EU goods depended. She thought that Saturday all would be settled and Brexit was done. All solved, every rule, did not understand transition period, laws to be implemented, trade talks would start etc. She really thought it would have been 100% done. Had even champagne ready.

And on remain side too, EU election was horrible, the one place to show you support the EU, voting numbers were to low under remainers. Now there is a whole bunch of TBP idiots sitting there. Hey EU we are pro EU, but will not vote in EU elections... idiots. But not the ones who did vote, but so many did not.

And in Lab, after all those years still infighting of the way to go. They are as bad in planning as the Tories. Could have worked on all kind of possibilities and set up a roadboak for everything. This all limbo stuff is not a surprise. It is the natural state of the UK at the moment. Could have been prepared. No, ongoing struggle.

Government is now an egomaniac who uses populist tricks and a bunch for frontbenchers/cabinet who are dogmatic low tax,low wages, small government dogmatists. Did read stuff Patel, Raab and Truss wrote together in 2012. Scary in dogma's.

As this thread shows, a leaver troll like Gissie is even out of ammo in a few posts. Wayne took longer but was repeating stuff.

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3 hours ago, crashdog said:

Well, chess is about brinksmanship and power.  Go is about patience and process.  Parliament is playing go and boris is pretending to play chess with draughts pieces.  They move a draught diagonally and discover that they are surrounded by black stones.  Its painful to watch, honestly.

I do not understand why there isn't more noise about how seriously broken this all is.  When I take friends (including leavers) through the various technical arguments against the brexit process (not even getting into outcomes or impacts), I universally get a "hmmm I didn't know that, that changes things" response.  But the so called media is not doing any of this work.  The voices in the wilderness - e.g. Ivan Rogers - have been speaking about this stuff for years.  Why aren't the people of England listening?  And why isn't the opposition acting on this.  Something in the water?  Lead pipes?  Mercury laced dyes?  Surely not BSE...

The kind of good sorts who would routinely assure everyone that there was no need for a written constitution in the UK because the good sorts on all sides would never be so reprehensible as to push the boundaries of the possible are exactly the chaps taking a wrecking ball to the UKs due process. The Emperor has no clothes.

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We seem to be going around in circles, here and in Westminster.  Yesterday I caught myself swearing at the talking heads on telly again. 

All these so-called university educated smart people (MP's, commentators, experts, analysts) saying how, with the present deal or any deal for that matter,  the economy will suffer, standards/rights will drop, businesses will go bust, intelligence/science partnerships will go up in flames .......  etc.

If only some of these talk show hosts had the balls to point out the obvious.

excuse the shouty font : WHAT DID YOU FARKING REALLY EXPECT !!!!

These programs would be done in 10 seconds flat but hey, they sit on the gravy train at the BBC as well seeing their recently published salaries.  FFS.

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Some food for thought with today's PMQ's in mind and how Boris frames his answers remembering he scarpered off straight after the vote last night to dial up his "EU Hotline".

9 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Some in EU fear of Leavers and Remainer's blaming them for long and short extensions respectively  might indicate some sort of flexible hybrid extension?

Agreeing to the one requested sounds less troublesome.

 

 

 

 

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"This is the biggest question. Seems to be so much laziness to trust what their leader says so you do not have to think for yourselves"

It's the other way about, we currently assume everything that comes out of their lips is a bare faced lie.  When we are feeling proactive, we listen to both sides, and try to interpolate the truth about the middle.  But now the self seeking vain posturing on both sides has reached 11, it's been months since anyone in power has actually said something useful, it's like a computer program stuck in a paradox, most of us are just looking for the ctrl/alt/del option.

Still hoping that the 'system' will prevent an internally elected buffoon of a leader, of a minority party, that nobody trusts, unilaterally pushing the country off a cliff.

Not sure a constitution would have helped, most modern constitutions can be changed by leaders planning mischief, or they become outdated and make the country un-governable as times and values change.  For example, the right to bear arms makes sense in a rural sword and musket era,  less so in an urban time of assault rifles.

Our version of a stabilising mechanism was the upper chamber, but since it was half reformed by Tony Blair, but never actually finished, it's lost much of it's influence, giving too much power to the commons.

Please someone, show me an example of a country with a system of government that is representative, accountable, un-corruptable, and efficient?  All countries have that one dark period, or the guy who stole all the money, or the guy who took his county to war to win an election?  Everything the National Socialists did was domestically 'legal'.

If you all were UK citizens, what would you do?  Every party fights every election with a promise of fixing broken politics, balancing the budgets, making tax fair, draining the swamp, cutting crime, fixing immigration, etc, etc.  Is there a promised land somewhere in the world (countries with oil wealth or less than five million people excluded) where leaders are largely trusted roll models, and the system is robust enough to withstand the bad ones?  Genuinely want to know.

 

 

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Some more PMQ food for thought.

 

Be generous and assume Boris and Rasputin are not insane, the only explanation for suspending a Bill that had passed and pushing for an election is;

1. After using the 'dump Bill and call an election" threat mid debate to get more votes, he had a brain explosion turning it from threat to real at the dispatch box; or

2. The positive news of getting WAB approved to go to Committee completely stuffed up his "blame game" strategy so forced to pull out the election gun and wave it around.

Note: Put aside while this makes Corbyn nervous, equally he will have a lot of Tory MP's shitting their pants but offset by SNP and Lib Dems who would probably jump at the chance.

One problematic issue. If not for suspension the the remaining stages after the successful WAB - 2nd reading yesterday as per Schedule was Committee Stage today, Report Stage and 3rd reading tomorrow and into the Lords on Friday, followed by one hour for Lords amendments. That is fantasy and the house voted accordingly.

Therefore the reality is 31 October was already a sham deadline after Boris withdrew MV4 on Saturday and irrespective of yesterdays failure to secure the vote for that rediculous program.

I'm pretty sure those on the opposite benches will be peppering him with questions today about the delay being his not theirs. That is Boris has suddenly turned the "Get Brexit Done" party into the "Get Brexit Done Whenever" party.

images - 2019-10-23T184942.600.jpeg

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The BBC can't help themselves being #10's PR Agency for their "delay" spin

This tweet alone and in conjunction with others makes it erroneously appear that yesterday;

1. Was an abberation and Opposition Parties never approve 2nd Readings to enable Committee Stage so they can seek amendments. Or in other words Government Bills are never amended.

2. By not approving the Govt Program the Opposition was being obstructive. There is no suggestion the program was grossly inadeqate and by a Downing St advisor's estimation, 3 weeks short.

Note; JRM headed a campaign in 2012 to frustrate a Bill program of Cameron's, his own PM (it failed).

3. The above is irrelevant and has no bearing on timing the moment when WAB was suspended by Johnson.

I have only focused on the BBC. This "framing" aspect for prosecuting #10's "blame game" is not restricted to just them.

Opposition parties have been murdered by #10 spin to the media.

 

2500 (3).jpg

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Last night's votes. Both votes generating stable voting numbers except for Labour and Independents.

Putting aside amendments it is pretty clear a positive vote on final Bill will struggle once those votes settle where they belong.

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23 minutes ago, maxstaylock said:

It's the other way about, we currently assume everything that comes out of their lips is a bare faced lie.  When we are feeling proactive, we listen to both sides, and try to interpolate the truth about the middle.  But now the self seeking vain posturing on both sides has reached 11, it's been months since anyone in power has actually said something useful, it's like a computer program stuck in a paradox, most of us are just looking for the ctrl/alt/del option.

I only see polls going up and down for all parties. But that could be 20% of the electorate. So people are switching minds. You presume they think, but could be reacting on gut feelings. You do not listen to politicians remarks to get facts to base your opinion on. You fact check their remarks by listening to experts without political ties.

30 minutes ago, maxstaylock said:

Please someone, show me an example of a country with a system of government that is representative, accountable, un-corruptable, and efficient?  All countries have that one dark period, or the guy who stole all the money, or the guy who took his county to war to win an election?

If you take out the German occupation, since 1919 over here after woman voting was allowed and separation of church and politics. If you compare live now with 1919, we all have the standard which millionaires had then, or maybe even better in some aspects. Long life, financial security, vacation, nice houses, healthcare, pension plans. We should be happy. If you would have told that people in 1919, no one would have believed you.

40 minutes ago, maxstaylock said:

If you all were UK citizens, what would you do?

Did ask myself that, pick a step from Barniers staircase, and find a party that go for that step. I would have voted remain, but after ref and so many would like to leave, I would support a party going for Swiss/Norway model. But with border in Irish Sea because of GFA. And in absence of that remain. So with Lab never clear on that it would be Libdem. If Tories or Lab were for Norway I would have considered them, there are always elections later to correct a party that strays of to much.

46 minutes ago, maxstaylock said:

Is there a promised land somewhere in the world (countries with oil wealth or less than five million people excluded) where leaders are largely trusted roll models, and the system is robust enough to withstand the bad ones?

You will find them in smaller countries with big neighbours, tend to keep you humble. Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and the Netherlands. They have bad ones, but still are able to keep them in check as the are all coalition governments. A hack as seen from the ERG of the Tories is impossible. Party will loose coalition parties (bit like DUP walking away). Bad ones form new parties and never get more then 20%, as the TBP in the UK (without FTTP). But they shout loud. Another country that is I think on a very good historical track after been a dictatorship in the 70's, Portugal.

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43 minutes ago, LeoV said:

I only see polls going up and down for all parties. But that could be 20% of the electorate. So people are switching minds. You presume they think, but could be reacting on gut feelings. You do not listen to politicians remarks to get facts to base your opinion on. You fact check their remarks by listening to experts without political ties.

A good example is a Sky Poll out today that I viewed live so can't provide linky. Some of the results were very surprising and in some cases disturbing and could provide for very volatile dynamics at a GE. Many don't accord to the electoral pitches of some political parties.

Here are just a few.

- Leavers give less priority to Brexit than Remainer's.

- Brexit in terms of importance ranks below things like Government services for both Remainer's and Leavers

- Brexit economics outcome ranks below many other factors for both Remain and Leavers alike.

Being a pollster for a UK GE, if it was to occur, appears that it might be a very challenging job.

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PMQ's most significant things were the word "election" only mentioned once by Johnson in passing. Bill spoken of as if it has has a future, maybe a Fraudian slip?

Boris is not a natural at the dispatch box, lots of cringe and flakey on detail when off script.

Note; Corbyn Johnson meeting B4 hand.

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Unimportant, minority government leader without power. This PM of the union lost trust in Scotland,Wales and NI. Bravo. He is now dependable on opposition and EU, nice work... Classic DOM.
His lying and improvising all the way, this site calls it porkies and fishy promises;
https://infacts.org/6-more-porkies-and-6-more-fishy-promises-from-johnson/?mc_cid=42e54e0b03&mc_eid=80606404cd

Just have to wait for election/referendum and see what that brings, possible referendum with revoke or (there it is again) No Deal. Or new government trying to get a deal.
Would be funny if Corbyn fights for an election and then steps down for a new face. Just to annoy Cummings.

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Tusk is so nice;
In my phone call with PM @BorisJohnson I gave reasons why I’m recommending the EU27 accept the UK request for an extension.

BJ really thinks that France will be difficult, Poland already said to Half Polish Tory MP who begged for a veto, publicly; go fuck yourself (in nicer words).
Hungary same, Italy same. It just seems that an union of 27 is harder to crack then they keep thinking. BJ call around at leaders did not work it seems.
Time to offer The Channel Islands to France, Gib to Spain...
Friday we will know, till then BJ can keep his hopes up.

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This #10 rift doesn't smell right?

Smells of an excuse spun to underwrite Boris being currently stuck in neutral gear. A Deal that every day it sits out in the open going nowhere looks more flakey.

Corbyn not taking election bite and failure to ram a deal through B4 31 Oct without benefit of No Deal threat has put a spanner in works. Boris has enjoyed loyalty to his No Deal strategy but surely there must some who can no longer be relied upon there and or have an appetite for an election.

Myself and many here have been critical of Corbyn's fence sitting but it has proved fundamental to keeping many key votes alive with some Labour Leaver leakage, but nothing terminal. He has won the strategy game so far.

Both he and Boris are running out of runway and maybe will need to reset sooner than later. Who blinks first? 

 

 

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Is Brexit heading towards the rocks if not concluded this year?

This is a cheap and chearfull (not top end more accurate) Radar Alarm going off aboard the good ship Brexit as it heads towards the rocks unless something happens.

When will Brexit be finished?

15% think by the end of October (hard core optimists), 22% think by the end of this year, 32% think by March next year, 11% think next year after March, 8% think after end of 2020 and by 2025, 5% think not until after 2025 and 31% think the issue of Brexit will never be finished.

Total of 55% see Brexit not happening or not happening after March next year. (32 + 24)

Is it reasonable to interpolate and match this against interest in voting for Brexit reducing over time if next March is a tipping point? In otherwords:

If Brexit is not concluded by March 2020, 55% will not vote for or support a Brexit political party after that.

If Brexit is not concluded by December this year, support for Brexit or a Brexit political party will reduce by one-third if delayed until March next year (32 -10)

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12 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

EHkQbQQXUAAMnOC.png.965f49e3ab69521d9e12416251596fba.png

what in fact is the exact meaning of "the issue of Brexit" ? that would be my reply if asked this question

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The tea leaves are coming out.

His observation about Boris talking as if Deal is still alive at some points is correct noting Boris and Corbyn met before PMQ's.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Albatros said:

what in fact is the exact meaning of "the issue of Brexit" ? that would be my reply if asked this question

My understanding there was no coaching and the question is what it is in their eyes. 

Remember the term "no deal" has become a politicised soundbite for remain that has no basis.

So they weren't told for instance leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement is "no deal" or withdrawal agreement but then no future relationship is also "no deal".

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1 hour ago, LeoV said:

Time to offer The Channel Islands to France, Gib to Spain...
Friday we will know, till then BJ can keep his hopes up.

Seems a bit much to ask. How about a copy pasta job of the GFA border poll language for both of them instead? :lol:

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- Yeah let's take the EU and those Marxist pricks right to the wire -  leaving only 72 hours to crash it through Commons - great fucking plan Martian boy.

- What - It was your fuckin idea - the great Nordic negotiator.

- Well you can't be too fuckin bright taking notice of me - Haven't you seen my work - a flowery £80m bridge that doesn't exist.

- It was Gove then.

- Yes great idea - blame it on Goanna face.

3110.jpg

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8 hours ago, LeoV said:

As this thread shows, a leaver troll like Gissie is even out of ammo in a few posts. Wayne took longer but was repeating stuff.

Leo, you guys crack me up with your stats and snippets of Remainer biased “news based entirely on your media and internet “ bubble”. You guys are so out of touch with the average English voter that one almost could almost say you are my guilty pleasure watching you waste 1000’s of hours in your addiction to wanting to be part of the news on this thread and your hypothesis of the current situation. If only you guys had put those hours into something actually productive that would be beneficial to your lives.

 I may have been repeating stuff that you scoffed at but hey having called the referendum result, called the rise of Boris, the prorogation of Parliament, the moving of the Irish border to the Irish Sea, the total disintegration of both the Labour and Conservative Parties, way way back in this thread, way before you guys even thought that a Brexit was even going to happen, then I’m quite happy to sit back ( and I suspect also a great number of fellow Brexiteers hence the weird polling results ) and watch for what was always going to be the inevitable conclusion once Leave won the referendum.

Sadly because of narrow minded blinkered mugs like you and Jack and all the dick waving short term thinking of the ruling elite, there is still some ways to go yet in this story.

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Fear mongering... most of this sort of stuff will already be worked out....no one could be stupid enough not to have done this pre exiting the EU. It probably even has a special name like Purple Screwdriver.

 

 

 

 

 

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Ah, Wayne trolling again, shall I open his post, must ignore... will ignore. Thanks for ignore function. Would be something like He knows all, we are dicks.

Word on EU side, this deal is good as basis for future trade deals as many concessions must be made by the UK over the years.
Waiting for an other party to win and come up with something new is not needed. As this does not change much over the years.
If they really want to remain, a ref in 5 years time is enough to accomplish that.

Best is this deal with amendments that satisfy enough Lab voters.

 

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Not unexpectedly France has put their peg in the sand -  2 week extension....plus a bit of Boris  espionage.

If it is true Boris asked Macron to reject his extension request and he is not lying or it is not just #10 spin, Boris has just frustrated the Benn Act and by extension breeched the undertaking he gave the Court.

Anyway perfect timing..this will make a few heads spin. That may include Macron and those in the Tory tea room having to give sworn testimony on what Boris asked/told them. Ha Ha

 

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Boris was on a roll today...there are checks East to West but only exit declarations west to east. Maybe he hasn't read his own Deal or had someone explain it to him?

Shambolic.

 

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14 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

You guys are so out of touch with the average English voter 

I was thinking about the anger of the NI unionists, and today’s joint press conference of the premiers of Wales and Scotland, and here it is... Time to put a bullet through the head of the “United” kingdom...

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Not content with just pissing over Nth Ireland Unionists he also gave Nationalists a good kick today too. 

Maybe he caught a germ off Trump??

 

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I think Boris might have a world evasion record in hand here. Alert the stewards if he doesn't send a second letter saying he is coming.

I wonder what the colour of the sky is in Boris's world?

PS. Is writing optional at Eton?

 
Translation indicates it wasn't the letter he was intending to send to the EU.
 
 

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Verhofstadt : "there is no real problem about extending the delay, but it would be first and foremost upon the UK to give us an indication what this delay would be used for, what's the exact purpose, what do they want to achieve and when"

 

by the way Leo, yes, our good friend Wayne is a late late cousin of none other than Nostradamus ... you'll always be right at the end if you keep it misty enough and when you throw out enough possibilities to choose from afterwards ... I'd ask him for the lottery numbers for next week but he'll probably answer something to the likes of "ah, well, somewhere between 1 and 50-something"

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16 minutes ago, Albatros said:

..by the way Leo, yes, our good friend Wayne is a pathological liar..

Fixed

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1 hour ago, Albatros said:

Verhofstadt : "there is no real problem about extending the delay, but it would be first and foremost upon the UK to give us an indication what this delay would be used for, what's the exact purpose, what do they want to achieve and when"

 

by the way Leo, yes, our good friend Wayne is a late late cousin of none other than Nostradamus ... you'll always be right at the end if you keep it misty enough and when you throw out enough possibilities to choose from afterwards ... I'd ask him for the lottery numbers for next week but he'll probably answer something to the likes of "ah, well, somewhere between 1 and 50-something"

From my money Verhofstadt was the target when Broiss said he would not negotiate on a delay.

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12 minutes ago, rgeek said:

From my money Verhofstadt was the target when Broiss said he would not negotiate on a delay.

Verhofstadt is not that important, what strikes me over and over is what a tight game the EU squad have been playing, never expected that to happen, au contraire,  Verhofstadt plays his role (=mostly bad cop) but well within the overall game of the squad, if Boris needs to negotiate a delay, it's not with Verhofstadt, that one just gives the message from the squad.

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Well I'll be fucked...

Someone from a surprising corner has suddenly jumped on TV saying (albeit weakly) Boris lied during Tuesday's WAB debate on there being no checks on Nth Ireland's East/West border.

This no coincidence. Laura K has her own gigs at BBC busy as shit with political news appearances so jumping on Breakfast TV is as rare as rockinghorse shit. Management damage control??

Boris went one better and repeated the same lie again in yesterday's PMQ's just in case someone missed it.

11 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Boris was on a roll today...there are checks East to West but only exit declarations west to east. Maybe he hasn't read his own Deal or had someone explain it to him?

Shambolic.

Yesterday all Laura L did post PMQ's was retweets like this about the subject. Nothing under her own hand.

The jury is therefore still out about her still "trading independance for access," favourable treatment and facilitating #10's "framing" will depend maybe on what she says or doesn't say today and over the next few days.

 

A lot of eyes on her now to see if she really has given up her #10 Business Card.

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If you think this is insane, buckle up.

On0/Dogballs/2019 at 4:24 AM, jack_sparrow said:

Yes his words preceding his comments on Treasury's November 2018 Assessment of Brexit Economic Impacts are just so comforting. "My starting point is that agreeing the Withdrawal Agreement is self-evidently in our economic interest."

Letter to MP Dated 21 October 2019

Thank you for your letter on Friday, as well as your predecessors’ letter of 17 July, asking about the cross-Whitehall long-term economic analysis of EU exit published in November 2018, and whether we will be providing an economic impact assessment of the new Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration. My starting point is that agreeing the Withdrawal Agreement is self-evidently in our economic interest.....

It might be helpful to recall that the analysis of November 2018 was intentionally long-term in nature.

It was designed to provide an understanding of how changes to our  relationship with the EU might affect the UK economy, but it did not seek to predict how the UK economy will actually perform in the future, not least because the UK’s exit from the EU will be just one of a number of factors impacting economic growth. Nor did the analysis make judgements about any future economic policy decisions.

Furthermore, the FTA modelled in the analysis does not correspond to the agreement we will be seeking, because it instead modelled a generic, ‘average’, FTA, looking at examples from around the world. The specifics of our own agreement will be the subject of the next phase of negotiations. We will keep Parliament updated throughout those discussions and provide analysis at appropriate points.

What has already been agreed is the Withdrawal Agreement, on which the Department for Exiting the European Union will publish information in the coming days, to inform Parliamentary discussion of the Bill once it is brought before the House.

My last point is to say that trust in  democracy and bringing an end to the division  that has characterised this debate over the past three years, is something that cannot be measured solely through spreadsheets or impact assessments, important though they  are.

SAJID JAVID

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So these charts from the Treasury Report he refers are long term impacts so short term impacts are going to be a lot worse than shown in those Treasury graphs.

Also it is a Brexit Impact Assement Report that for some inexplicable reason it did not seek to predict how the UK economy will actually perform in the future!!!! WTF??

In fact it seems trusting the democracy is presumably more important than measuring the impacts of Brexit using spreadsheets or impact assessments, important though they are.

Also Treasury anticipated FTA's as modeled in this Report with the world could either be better or worse than what the UK will negotiate in real life. The Government will let everyone know in the years down the track when we know.

That Treasury Report indicates up to around  -8% on GDP in the long term or around -12% GDP commencing next December in the event of a No Deal exit.

You can't make this shit up.

That bullshit letter from Javid to that MP was submitted to Parliament the next day as the Government's "Brexit Economic Impact Statement."

Gobsmacked...can't find the words to describe this.

 

 

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They probably did not factor in the lost revenue to EBC, makers of motorcycle brake pads. I just bought a set from Feroda, made in Italy. And they work better. From now on, I will check Feroda first. The brake calipers on my British made Triumph, are the same as my Suzuki. I bought a fairing part for the Triumph about 5 weeks ago, and saved a few dollars with the pound down. Fairing is also made in Italy. I am sure the British rugby team will try hard, but have about the same result as Boris and company. That statement about the future economic performance, would probably get a failing grade in an economics class. Various scenarios are allowed, but flat out bullshit will not fly.

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Sajid Javid: The only thing leaving the EU guarantees is a lost decade for British business

Sajid Javid
Saturday, 14 May, 2016

Telegraph

I was somewhere in West London, meeting with one of the area’s many television companies, when the EU Single Market really began to make more sense.

I was Culture Secretary at the time, and the company’s chief executive was explaining why they’d chosen the UK for their main base outside North America.

It had a lot to do with wealth of creative talent here. But the clincher was the Single Market – it meant they could broadcast to up to half a billion viewers across 28 countries and only have to deal with regulators in the UK. Thanks to common standards across Europe, they didn’t have to worry about meeting the demands of dozens of different local bureaucrats.

It was a similar story when I worked in financial services. If I wanted to seal a deal in, say, Paris, all I had to do was hop on a train, get the paperwork signed and head home again. My biggest worry was whether I’d be back in time to put the kids to bed.

I’m a Eurosceptic and proud of it. I think the Euro is a bad idea. I have no time for ever-closer union and I’ve long been a vocal critic of Brussels’ worst excesses.

But, just like Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and IMF head Christine Lagarde, I still believe that Britain is better off in. And that’s all because of the Single Market.

It’s a great invention, one that even Lady Thatcher campaigned enthusiastically to create.

The world’s largest economic bloc, it gives every business in Britain access to 500 million customers with no barriers, no tariffs and no local legislation to worry about. 

It’s no surprise that nearly half of our exports go to other EU nations, exports that are linked to three million jobs here in the UK. And as an EU member we also have preferential access to more than 50 other international markets from Mexico to Montenegro, helping us to export £50 billion of goods and services to them every year.

Even companies that are neither exporters nor part of the export supply chain – your local corner shop, for example – benefit from the economic growth that kind of access brings.

And it works for imports too – British consumers benefit from lower prices on the things they want to buy, and British companies can easily import the raw materials they need to make goods. There’s no doubt about it, remaining in the EU is good for business.

Of course, the Brexit camp say we don’t have to be a member of the EU to benefit from all this.

That, should we vote to leave, Brussels would instantly offer us full and easy access to the Single Market and influence over regulations. All the good stuff, none of the bad.

It sounds like a no-brainer. But it’s just not realistic.

For one thing, even Europe’s biggest fan would admit that it’s hardly a byword for thrusting dynamism.  As Iain Duncan Smith said this week, the EU only moves as quickly as its slowest member state – and getting 27 nations to agree terms for British access to the Single Market would simply not happen overnight.

Then there’s the nature and scope of any access agreement.

Today, almost 80 per cent of British jobs are part of the service sector – everything from that TV company to pensions to education.

It’s a sector with exports of £226 billion, nearly half of which go to Europe. But of the trade agreements the EU has with more than 50 countries around the world, not one gives service industries the same level of guaranteed access as the Single Market. Not one. 

And this isn’t just an EU problem – the biggest free trade agreement in the world, NAFTA, doesn’t come close either. No free trade agreement does.  And that's because services are complex and highly regulated.

Unless the exporting country submits to the importing country’s rules and local regulator, access will be denied. Maybe the EU will break the habit of a lifetime and come up with something new just for us.

But I wouldn’t want to bet the jobs of millions of British workers on it.

Finally, the negotiations themselves would be extremely lopsided, giving the upper hand to our rivals.

Forty-four per cent of our exports go the EU, but only eight per cent of the rest of the EU’s exports come to the UK.

One of the advantages of EU membership is that we get to negotiate wider and deeper trade deals from a position of strength. If we leave, the boot will be on the other foot – and that will put Britain at a serious disadvantage.

The remaining EU nations will want to secure a deal that’s good for their economies. So Germany will want to protect its carmakers from British imports. France will want to protect its farmers from UK rivals. Even little Luxembourg will want to protect its financial services industry from the global hub of London.

And who could blame them? If I was in their shoes, I’d do the same. If Germany left the EU tomorrow, I’d make damn sure any trade agreement we reached put British businesses first. I’d be failing in my job as Secretary of State if I didn’t.

Business leaders from kitchen-table start-ups to vast multi-nationals are already telling me that the uncertainty over the referendum result is causing them to delay investment decisions, to think twice about creating new jobs.

If we vote to leave, that uncertainty won’t end the morning after the referendum. Even the most conservative estimates say it could take years to secure agreements with the EU and other countries.

Having spent six years fighting to get British businesses back on their feet after Labour’s record-breaking recession, I’m not about to vote for a decade of stagnation and doubt.

I can see why some people want to leave the EU. Arguments about national identity and sovereignty pack an emotional punch. But for anyone who cares about British jobs, it comes down to one key question.

Do businesses want the benefits and security of continued access to the Single Market, or the instability and uncertainty of a lost decade? 

However you feel about Europe, whether you’re an enthusiastic federalist or an ardent advocate of leaving, that is the question you have to answer on 23 June. And from where I’m standing, there’s only one answer – a vote to remain

 

At least he seems to know what he's doing..... 

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Boris and the Irish border has taken on a life of its own now

Remember that Boris gave the HOC 72 hours to complete WAN and send it off Lords tomorrow and is pissed off that program wasn't passed.

Starting with WAB debate on Tuesday where he said there would be no checks on NI GB border and followed it up again with this at yesterday's PMQ's.

 

On Tuesday Barclay first told Lords Select Committee there would be no checks then recanted saying NI business’s will have to complete export declaration forms.

Then we have this ERG fool weighing in telling the DUP they overreacting and answer lies in the EU FTA?

How does a EU FTA fix these DUP's concerns.

First the DUP wanted Brexit because they thought it would create barriers with the Republic. They've got the exact opposite, with abortion and gay marriage thrown in for good measure. On top of that their power of veto in Stormont has been replaced with majority NI consent for these Customs arrangements. 

An FTA fix all that??? He is as smart as bait.

The only thing that would fix it is if DUP had done what was best for NI and picked the Remain side, but that would have them agreeing with SF which would never do.

Anyway we now have a new player in this daga. Last night the Home Office issued this after the Home Secretary couldn't answer this question in Committee yesterday. What is it with these people??

BTW the Home Office's answer below is wrong. There will in addition be Regulatory including Country of Origin checks for goods bound from GB for the RoI.

Then to further complicate one troublesome area which many miss is goods bound for NI but are used in manufacture/remanufacture and then sold into the RoI. This applies in particular Agri-Foods.

Anyway what will the Government's story be today?? We won't have to wait long because in response to a UQ Barclay is going to have to make a statement in the HOC. Should be fascinating.

What is Barclay going to say:-

1) Answer he gave to Lord's Committee that NI business’s will have to complete export declaration forms for goods going to GB?

2) Answer given by BorisJohnson
 during WAB debate and PMQ's that there is no checks?

3) Answer given by the Home Office?

4) Answer involving some strange mixture of the above plus "new technology" aka pull "Alternative Arrangements" out of the drawer?

Can't wait. If this subject is any guide it would take Commons 3 years not 3 days to deal with the WAB and send it off to Lords.

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Carrying on from the Governments inability to deal with matters contained in the WAB compared to the 72 hour program they put up.

This comparison is a cracker.

Previous pieces of legislation affecting Britain’s constitutional arrangements have taken months. Even the Wild Animals in Circuses Act, passed earlier this year and affecting a grand total of 19 animals, had been given 11 days as shown HERE

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46 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

What is Barclay going to say:-

Can't wait. If this subject is any guide it would take Commons 3 years not 3 days to deal with the WAB and send it off to Lords.

all about semantics, Boris yanking on about "no checks" and the document talking about "minimal administrative process" ... they will argue that's not the same... or going by the answers I've seen last weeks, they'll simply not answer, so weird to me the get away with that, downhere that would not be so easy.

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2 hours ago, Albatros said:

all about semantics, Boris yanking on about "no checks" and the document talking about "minimal administrative process" ... they will argue that's not the same... 

Albatross actually it is not sematics. There are actually real life GB NI regulatory checks. The only explanation for ignoring this, including the Home Office, is to make it it a semantics argument exactly as you say.

Your post indicates that strategy is working and more so how the DUP reacted in exactly the same way and today rabbiting on about pieces of Customs  paper being checked. The have missed the Regulatory physical check.

There is no explanation why the the DUP opposing this border have missed these GB NI physical checks, other than they spend more time frothing at mouth than reading.

3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

BTW the Home Office's answer below is wrong. There will in addition be Regulatory including Country of Origin checks for goods bound from GB for the RoI.

Then to further complicate one troublesome area which many miss is goods bound for NI but are used in manufacture/remanufacture and then sold into the RoI. This applies in particular Agri-Foods

 

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The DUP are only party in the UK or on the island of Ireland who opposed the GFA. Many commentators say that is because they don't understand or appreciate its value and significance. They are wrong.

The DUP in fact know more about the GFA and in particular what got it off the ground than maybe anyone. That is in fact the foundation of their opposition to Boris's Brexit. BTW it has absolutely nothing to do with anything border. The answer???

You will find it from 11.00 - 16.00 and 28.00 - 30.15 in the final of the BBC series "The Troubles - A Secret History" that screened on Tuesday night.

I think this the best of all the episodes. It concentrates on the period 1990 - 1998 that produced the GFA and exposes the risks from Brexit to it, and that the DUP have always wanted to exploit

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 ELECTION 12th DECEMBER VOTE MONDAY

Before getting an answer from the EU to A.50 extension GE vote on Monday?????

Worried about getting a short one so jumping in now signalling they want a long extension for a GE???

Leaking a date indicates he is going for a "one line Bill" that fixes GE date and only requires majority, not the VONC/FTPA 2/3.

He could get that with SNP and Lib Dems leaving Labour stranded.

As for the nervous Nellie's, they are still nervous.

Corbyn would want to wait until after 31 October (when No Deal trickery gone) and make him dig his ditch so the Brexit Party carve him up. However if not VONC/FTPA then maybe out of this hands.

 

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@Albatros;
The Labour MP, Steve Doughty, wants to know if UK Border Force officials will be involved in any way at any stage in the checks on exports between Northern Ireland and Britain.

It’s not quite clear if Barclay gives a ‘yes’ or a ‘no.’ In “We will have sovereign control over that as a sovereign country,” he says.
------------------------

Simple question, no answer. Presume the answer Barclay does not want to give the right answer.

Best example of difficulty for NI;
NI fishing boat is fishing, returns and sells its fish; if there is a risk that it goes to EU he must pay vat, if it gets eaten in NI, no vat. He can not know, he does not sell it personally.

MPs have voted for the Queen’s speech – 310 to 294, a minor win for BJ.

 

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18 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Best example of difficulty for NI;
NI fishing boat is fishing, returns and sells its fish; if there is a risk that it goes to EU he must pay vat, if it gets eaten in NI, no vat. He can not know, he does not sell it personally.

Leo re fish example and in fact all goods there will be no checks for Customs (excise/tarriffs/VAT) as all voluntary (ie electronically) and so in accord with Boris's claim and Home Office statement that omits goods for the Republic going via Nth Ireland

The border checks are Regulatory for goods GB to RoI that go via NI. Regulatory checks RoI to GB is up to the UK.

EHoltL3XkAADqAo.jpeg

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Laura K comes up with the most understated statement for Boris's "We leave 31 October come what may, otherwise I will die in a ditch"

Guess who is doing an exclusive 12 Dec election interview now with Boris?

 

 

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Hooray Queens speech voted in, start of new parliamentary sitting, lets go for election vote on Monday.

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Boris's condition to allow WAB to go to Committee will guarantee EU hold off extension decision until after GE vote next Tuesday?

Also why would Labour agree to this?

“Give me an election and you can have more time scrutinising my deal.” So if loses GE vote he would keep it suspended after it being voted to move to Committee. 

Interesting concept.Might need a favourable Speaker for that one....oops Queen Speech passed there is one.

 

 

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ACT 1

No ifs, no buts - we are gone 31 Oct come what may...

Also... NO BREXIT ON OCTOBER 31st.

Will not request an extension.

Also... EXTENSION REQUESTED.

Would rather die in a ditch than delay Brexit.

Also... NO BREXIT. NO DITCH.

ACT 2

Give me an election and you can have more time to help me railroad though my Brexit deal....

To be continued

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Looks like SNP are gone and they were hot to trot. 

EU must withold vote until after GE vote. So Lib Dems will surely say No.

 

 

 

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Election call sounding increasingly like a Johnson diversion to distract attention from  his do-or-die-in-a-ditch Halloween promise and seeing he is stopping proper Committee scrutiny of his Deal that is full of hidden barb's.

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Corbyn should say Yes Boris Labour will vote for a 12 December Election providing the Government approve all amendments made to the WAB and it passed B4 Parliament is prorogued.

THEN SHOUT FROM THE ROOF TOP BORIS SAID NO TO BREXIT

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Well that's code for a No vote Monday and once A.50 extension to hand (knowing it won't be tomorrow) and it's 1 November we are good for an election subject to any conditions.

 

And someone spiked his drink making him think Corbyn is resigning next week.

 

 

 

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Flexi-extension would be very smart EU approval hiving Macron something and complying with both Boris's/Benn 3 month/30 January letter and his cover letter not wanting a 3 month extension and being able to accommodate both the Bill being encourage approved before short Nov extension and a GE before the long 30 January.

 

 

 

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Listened to a commentator that reakons Boris's appalling behaviour has woken up a lot of Remainer's (who had put Brexit behind them) and will wait for him with baseball bats at an election.

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9 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Boris and the Irish border has taken on a life of its own now

Remember that Boris gave the HOC 72 hours to complete WAN and send it off Lords tomorrow and is pissed off that program wasn't passed.

Starting with WAB debate on Tuesday where he said there would be no checks on NI GB border and followed it up again with this at yesterday's PMQ's.

 

On Tuesday Barclay first told Lords Select Committee there would be no checks then recanted saying NI business’s will have to complete export declaration forms.

Then we have this ERG fool weighing in telling the DUP they overreacting and answer lies in the EU FTA?

How does a EU FTA fix these DUP's concerns.

First the DUP wanted Brexit because they thought it would create barriers with the Republic. They've got the exact opposite, with abortion and gay marriage thrown in for good measure. On top of that their power of veto in Stormont has been replaced with majority NI consent for these Customs arrangements. 

An FTA fix all that??? He is as smart as bait.

The only thing that would fix it is if DUP had done what was best for NI and picked the Remain side, but that would have them agreeing with SF which would never do.

Anyway we now have a new player in this daga. Last night the Home Office issued this after the Home Secretary couldn't answer this question in Committee yesterday. What is it with these people??

BTW the Home Office's answer below is wrong. There will in addition be Regulatory including Country of Origin checks for goods bound from GB for the RoI.

Then to further complicate one troublesome area which many miss is goods bound for NI but are used in manufacture/remanufacture and then sold into the RoI. This applies in particular Agri-Foods.

Anyway what will the Government's story be today?? We won't have to wait long because in response to a UQ Barclay is going to have to make a statement in the HOC. Should be fascinating.

What is Barclay going to say:-

1) Answer he gave to Lord's Committee that NI business’s will have to complete export declaration forms for goods going to GB?

2) Answer given by BorisJohnson
 during WAB debate and PMQ's that there is no checks?

3) Answer given by the Home Office?

4) Answer involving some strange mixture of the above plus "new technology" aka pull "Alternative Arrangements" out of the drawer?

Can't wait. If this subject is any guide it would take Commons 3 years not 3 days to deal with the WAB and send it off to Lords.

 

Finally the Govt fesses up that RoI regulatory border inspections will occur. That simple thing took a few days to squeeze out of them. 

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Remember Boris has already overplayed his hand on Labour wanting an election once already. It started what ended up a deluge of fails with him a prisoner of Parliament.

Is history repeating itself here?

 

 

 

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Beware of really crap looking Tory election campaign artwork that looks like the handiwork of small children

A story that involves a sad looking middle aged balding man who dresses in his teenage children's clothes - but with fake news and fake campaign material can fuck a country and make one-third of its people cheer...one third is all he needs.

its-time-to-get-brexit-done-boomer-meme.jpg

img_2059.jpg

zE6_7dTu.jpeg

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Finally serious political journalists like Rigby from the mainstream media are waking up to what is going on.....this #10 strategy has the potential to go really pear shaped for Johnston if people start to feel as though they are treated as playthings that can be easilly conned.

 

 

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Why is it stupid people keep saying they are not stupid?   

Simple, they are so stupid that they don't know how stupid they are.

How do I know?  Because I often exclaim that I wished that I  was so stupid that I wouldn't know how......

Got it, stupid.  :rolleyes:

 

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I know it's Not likely but it would be interesing if the EU said no to 3 months delay and only gave 1month. That would satisfy neither side in parliament and put the cat amoungst the pigeons.. 

I see this morning, having been campaigning for an election the SNP are now saying they don't want it,  on Boris's terms.

Only 11days till its November  5th, anyone for some spectacularly  accurate dummies on the bonfire. 

 

 

 

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