Meat Wad

Brexit, WTF

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9 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Yeah, but the solution to this was.... more party politics. May could have ignored the Tory Brexiteers and started talking to Labour. 

Come on Leo talk to who? Corbyn is a dead man walking internally. The Labour party more disciplined than the Torys cover that up. Who would have May spoken to first, his tea lady? 

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You bet there can be talks between Cp and L, happens al the time. You do not send in your big guns. But it seems even on lower levels there is a stalemate.
And probably the tea lady knows a thing of two.

May's speech just now;

May says a general election will not help the country find a solution to Brexit. And a Labour government would not help either, she says. She says the government is fighting injustices, And, as it leaves the EU, the country must raise its ambitions. She is proud of what the government has achieved. The government has the confidence of the country. Now it is asking for the confidence of MPs too, she says.

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Ah the loyal Tories;
Mark Francois, the Tory Brexiter, says he and May do not agree on Europe. But he says that when the vote is called, the whole of the European Research Group (the Brexiter faction that has opposed May’s Brexit policy) will be voting with her.

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16 minutes ago, LeoV said:

You bet there can be talks between Cp and L, happens al the time. You do not send in your big guns. But it seems even on lower levels there is a stalemate.
And probably the tea lady knows a thing of two

Well if any Prime Minister is forced to talk to the opposition because over 100 of her own have left her high and dry that is not party politics. That in the old days was called treason or on a boat mutiny. Maybe it is time someone in the Conservative hierarchy showed some of these 100 and more double digit IQ MP's, most who are unemployable, what a rope looks like. The Thatcher's of the world would show them two ropes. Loose discipline on a boat you sink.

 

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Oh, in reality even enemies in war talk to each other more often then not, by a 3rd party. She calls it  talking to senior parliamentarians.

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ah, some soothing words from the Greece press;

In Greece, the media was in rare agreement that the UK was in uncharted waters. “There is astonishment that a democracy as old as Britain has got itself into such a dead end,” “It’s the sort of mess Greece would get itself into.”

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37 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Oh, in reality even enemies in war talk to each other more often then not, by a 3rd party. She calls it  talking to senior parliamentarians.

Leo just like 3rd parties went to Germany on behalf of Neville Chamberlain British PM and then after his signing of the Munich Agreement in 1938, relinquishing Czechoslovakia to the Nazis, Churchill his ultimate same party successor said to him; "You're given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war" 

Who was right?

Time May showed some take no prisoner mongrel with the cockheads in her own party.

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8 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

...

Time May showed some take no prisoner mongrel with the cockheads in her own party.

Jack what specific actions would you have her take? (Personally I'd like her to take Corbyn's hand in hers followed by a long walk off a short pier but maybe you have some more practical suggestions).

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14 minutes ago, KC375 said:

Jack what specific actions would you have her take?

She take Boris and Rees Mogg for a tour of the Tower London and only one comes back would transmit a pretty clear message to her own party. Then put the blow torch on Corbyn. What has she got to lose? Her own party can't get get rid of her for a year under party rules and she has said she is retiring politics after this.

The women needs to go feral and take control. Knowing the Brits they will worship her even if they can't stand her, her party or her/their position on Brexit. 

The country can't afford for this shit to drag on. She has the key.

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Jack, Oh that is to straightforward, I think more like an action like Hess did would fit in.

Oh, and if she locks up RM and BJ they will appeal to the EU court of Justice I reckon, how nice.

 

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Looney party seems now a very sensible party in comparison :)

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11 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Jack, Oh that is to straightforward, I think more like an action like Hess did would fit in.

Oh, and if she locks up RM and BJ they will appeal to the EU court of Justice I reckon, how nice.

 

Come on Leo figurative speech. The choice of outcome is Rees Mogg and Boris if they want to stay alive.

Couple of hours backroom discussion inclusive of those that write the cheques for the party, Rees Mogg and Boris if not cooperative are on gardening leave never to return other than as Independents with them having how many loyal followers??  You would fit them all in a Tesla if push came to shove. 

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Thinking aloud here:

May wants to renegotiate with EU 27.    Her government has zero negotiating power when EU27 sees that UK parliament has emphatically rejected a hard Brexit.  What is her negotiating position? "If you dont give us better terms  then I threaten....I threaten....I threaten to be very angry and ask to stay in the EU".  

The only hope she has is to negotiate with the threat of a hard Brexit.

If she doesnt have that threat then inevitably Article 50 gets delayed.

So I would not be surprised to see May have discussions with party asking them to give her a "bluff card".   The government temporarily unites behind a hard Brexit stance with a secret agreement with her backbenchers and the DUP that she will never follow through with that threat.   This leads to a major short term wobble in sterling and EU markets.

1. I doubt she gets this bluff card. The UK parliamentary system is too transparent. The DUP will never go for it. She has said she will work across the aisle ...and Corbyn is adamantly against hard brexit.

2. Even if she got the bluff card, unfortunately EU 27 will not fall for it. They will offer the same mild concessions that they were going to offer anyway.

Then everything rests in the hands of the Hard Brexit fruitcakes.  They either accept the negotiated "deal Brexit" and claim a Pyrrhic victory (we improved the terms ha ha)  or Brexit gets delayed.....maybe for ever.  As March 29th gets closer and closer the hard Brexiteers are going to be faced with the choice: "Deal Brexit" or "Delayed Brexit".   In a logical world they grab the "Deal Brexit" because any Brexit should be better than "No Brexit" but remember this faction has never been logical.

If Hard Brexiteers dont seize the moment to accept a negotiated Brexit (I give that a 70% probability)....then inevitably article 50 is revoked and Brexit is delayed.

 

 

 

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A delayed Brexit feels like a failure at the moment... but once the dust settles it actually puts the UK in an okay position.

They can then pursue a dual pronged strategy:

1. Work for reform of the EU with an incredible strong negotiating position. "We are planning to leave. The only way to stop this is to work on some compelling reforms that we could present to the UK electorate in a new referendum"

2. Prepare for a much better Brexit, spending 3-5 years negotiating trade agreements in advance, from a position of strength rather than desperation. So that when the UK invokes article 50 the second time, it is in a position to follow through. 

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The No Confidence Vote in the Govt will not succeed. Corbyn is on drugs.

This will be the trigger for the Conservatives to unleash the long knives internally and for May to show she has control over her own party. Do that and the Westminster climate will turn on a sixpence and there will be a pathway forward. Of the 630+ hands there, maybe 2/3 are sheep.

Currently it is constipated and can only shit itself.

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3 hours ago, LeoV said:

oh the Economists for Free Trade have something new out,
https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/No-Deal-is-the-Best-Deal-for-Britain-Upload.pdf

Did try to read it, but keep in mind the price of clothing is very cheap in the EU (Primark) , and food prices (Lidl) incredible low.
You can not read pass the first 2 speakers seeing the lies, and so distrust all they say. Will try again later...

This is factually incorrect - food, clothing and other prices are much lower in the USA, for example, than Europe.

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I think the UK is heading for a second referendum which is probably the least bad outcome from where the UK is now. Using time to build up a credible no deal leave by negotiating trade deals (against is EU rules) is negotiation 101 and should have been started over 2 years ago. Clearly many politicians and civil servants are opposed to BREXIT in any form.

I do not understand why a hard border in NI is either such a big deal or even required. I lived in Switzerland in the late 1980's and many road into France had unmanned crossings; this worked for the EU than and I don't see why it can't work now.

I think a large part of why the UK voted to leave is the political direction of the EU. The Euro currency is required in principal for all EU member except Denmark and the UK which have opt-outs. (The only 4 non-EU countries using the Euro that I can recall are Andorra, Monaco, Vatican City and San Marino; not exactly economic heavy weights!). 2019 is going to be a very testing year for the Euro and European democracy in general. Maybe the EU army will be ready to help maintain internal order 'cos I don't see it being able to defend Europe against any external threat.

I think any Russian influence on the BREXIT vote was pretty minimal though clearly this is un-provable either way. The bulk of the UK media was strongly in favour of Remain.

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31 minutes ago, Mambo Kings said:

A delayed Brexit feels like a failure at the moment... but once the dust settles it actually puts the UK in an okay position.

They can then pursue a dual pronged strategy:

1. Work for reform of the EU with an incredible strong negotiating position. "We are planning to leave. The only way to stop this is to work on some compelling reforms that we could present to the UK electorate in a new referendum"

2. Prepare for a much better Brexit, spending 3-5 years negotiating trade agreements in advance, from a position of strength rather than desperation. So that when the UK invokes article 50 the second time, it is in a position to follow through. 

1.       How would the UK negotiating position suddenly become “incredibly strong” as compared to the last couple of years. What is this new leverage the UK would have.

2.       While the UK certainly could have done a better job preparing for post Brexit it is not clear how good a job that could be. As long as the UK is in the EU it is not in a position to officially negotiate any trade agreements. So some unofficial conversations can happen. As long as the UK is in the EU there is no certainty it will leave the EU and turn those unofficial conversations into signed treaties. ...in fact the precedent would be that it had not despite a referendum. Trade negotiations are a lot of work and often require lots of political capital. Why would any one put that work and political capital at risk for a pretend negotiation that could easily go nowhere?   

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47 minutes ago, Mambo Kings said:

Thinking aloud here:

Mambo I just commissioned this to keep up to date with your Brexit predictions. :-)

Don't take offence but they do resemble the tracks of someone dying of thirst looking for water in the Sahara with only half a shovel. Hang fire while I find a nuclear power station and can boot up.

IMG_20190117_025455.jpg

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If (and it is a big IF!) the UK prepared actively by setting up trade agreements outside the EU, building up infrastructure to handle no-deal then negotiation gets much simpler. The EU countries have a very large visible trade surplus which they are very keen to protect - an Italian financial meltdown, USA leaning on EU trade imbalance all co-inciding with a hard BREXIT is a nightmare for EU (especially German) industry.

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28 minutes ago, Expatriated said:

I think the UK is heading for a second referendum which is probably the least bad outcome from where the UK is now. Using time to build up a credible no deal leave by negotiating trade deals (against is EU rules) is negotiation 101 and should have been started over 2 years ago. Clearly many politicians and civil servants are opposed to BREXIT in any form.

I do not understand why a hard border in NI is either such a big deal or even required. I lived in Switzerland in the late 1980's and many road into France had unmanned crossings; this worked for the EU than and I don't see why it can't work now.

I think a large part of why the UK voted to leave is the political direction of the EU. The Euro currency is required in principal for all EU member except Denmark and the UK which have opt-outs. (The only 4 non-EU countries using the Euro that I can recall are Andorra, Monaco, Vatican City and San Marino; not exactly economic heavy weights!). 2019 is going to be a very testing year for the Euro and European democracy in general. Maybe the EU army will be ready to help maintain internal order 'cos I don't see it being able to defend Europe against any external threat.

I think any Russian influence on the BREXIT vote was pretty minimal though clearly this is un-provable either way. The bulk of the UK media was strongly in favour of Remain.

7 other countries (Sweden, Poland Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia do not use the Euro (yet?), although they are supposed to converge economically and adopt the Euro in due course. Some of these 7 currently feel pretty negative about adopting.

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I have become addicted to the House of Commons Life Stream. Are treatment costs to correct this covered under the NHS after a Brexit? 

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4 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

I have become addicted to the House of Commons Life Stream. Are treatment costs to correct this covered under the NHS after a Brexit? 

They are scrapping the NHS early April. My best suggestion is a few pints of something traditional, but please, not Empire Ale or Britannia Bitter. They would make you worse.

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I know the Euro isn't the topic for this thread but the Euro is unsustainable without a banking and fiscal union, including substantial monetary transfers from 'surplus' to 'deficit' countries and regions.  I know this happens with EU structural funds currently but they are nowhere near enough to maintain the single currency are for Italy and Greece - the Germans will not vote for this in the foreseeable future. I seem to recall that any newly joining EU member has to adopt the Euro immediately but i could be mistaken - a bit of Euro discipline would quickly stop the SNP's Nicola Sturgeon smiling.

The Cyprus bank 'bail-in' shows how the rules are supposed to work in a future crisis; I suspect the Greeks will enjoy a moment of schadenfreude if & when Deutsche Bank fails...of course my Maltese trust will probably go to zero too so I will have an unhappy sailmaker! 

I do have an irreverent question for the Irish Republic folks here. In 1922 the Irish state split from the United Kingdom at a substantial economic cost but for political freedom; was this a mistake? If the answer is yes please explain why the United Kingdom is making a mistake in leaving the EU.

 

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The UK has had a team in the WTO since the original vote, and has also made advances towards several different countries to explore the framework of potential trade deals. We haven't heard much about these because the results have been extremely negative relative to existing deals via the EU, and hence damaging to the UK's negotiating position relative to the EU.

Apparently the Indian government commenced the discussions by pointing out that the British stole $45 trillion from India during their occupation. Not a comfortable start.

Regarding this fixation by the Government that modifying the backstop will bring the rebel tories back onside, there has been a few interviews showing that a good proportion of the number that voted for the government are remainers seeking a customs union and single market, and they will vote against if the governments position moves further from this. Some, like Ken Clarke, feel they have done their duty to the electorate and now will vote to remain, so are lost in any case.

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1 hour ago, Expatriated said:

...

I do not understand why a hard border in NI is either such a big deal or even required. 

...

 You need to understand this for your input to have any relevance. It is absolutely fundamental. 

Cheers,

              W.

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45 minutes ago, Expatriated said:

I do have an irreverent question for the Irish Republic folks here. In 1922 the Irish state split from the United Kingdom at a substantial economic cost but for political freedom; was this a mistake? If the answer is yes please explain why the United Kingdom is making a mistake in leaving the EU.

That has to be the most bizzare analogy I think I have ever read or heard anywhere about Brexit.

What is this fantasy Brexit equivalent to the Irish War of Independence that you speak of? Are the French firebombing Picadilly Circus as I type?

That war was a guerrilla conflict between the British state and its forces in Ireland. Thats right in Ireland. Ireland didn't leave anything. The British state were the ones booted out. Where is your Brexit religious analogy to the violence largely between Protestant and Catholic? The Italians supported by the Vatican Guard ransacked Westminster Abbey last week?

You need to have a Bex and a long lie down.

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Jack - if you can't see a bit of similarity then you are being obtuse and should learn some history; I am half Irish with a grandfather who grew up speaking Gaelic and had returned from America to England before the 1916 uprising.

It is economically best for the UK to remain in the EU. It is not clear to me that remaining in the EU is best for the UK as a society.

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10 minutes ago, WGWarburton said:

 You need to understand this for your input to have any relevance. It is absolutely fundamental. 

Cheers,

              W.

So you believe a hard border gives the IRA fuckers the excuse (right?) to go back to blowing some people up and knee-capping others?

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6 minutes ago, Expatriated said:

Jack - if you can't see a bit of similarity then you are being obtuse and should learn some history

Well if you think I'm being obtuse. There is less than zero similarity.

If you think I'm devoid of historical knowledge then how about you support a premise you, not I brought up, justifying that similarity with direct comparisons. That shouldn't take you too long is my guess professor.

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1 hour ago, Expatriated said:

This is factually incorrect - food, clothing and other prices are much lower in the USA, for example, than Europe.

Yeah off course, much lower,  not according the big mac index. But some stuff is cheaper in the US, that is true, still stands its cheap in the EU, US even cheaper.
So to call it factually incorrect is wrong.

Top 5 most expensive (juli 2018)

  1. Vlag van Zwitserland Zwitserland $6,54 (€5,58)
  2. Vlag van Zweden Zweden $5,83 (€4,97)
  3. Vlag van Verenigde Staten Verenigde Staten $5,51 (€4,70)
  4. Vlag van Noorwegen Noorwegen $5,22 (€4,46)
  5. Vlag van Canada Canada $5,07 (€4,32)

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

This will be the trigger for the Conservatives to unleash the long knives internally and for May to show she has control over her own party.

To late for that now.

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The Irish were part of the UK. They sacrificed economic gain as part of the UK for political freedom. Yes there was a guerilla war fought to 'boot the British out' but this doesn't change the premise that there was an economic loss for a political gain; at the time of the 1916 uprising there was a fairly small level of support for independence; the British mis-handling of the aftermath provoked the change from 'home rule' to full independence.

I know others here don't agree with me but the EU engineered coups in Italy and Greece to replace elected governments with technocrats to do their bidding. They papered this with a weak legal fig leaf but coups they were.

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The best things May could do is hang on for another couple of weeks and then revoke the BREXIT letter. I don't see how the EU could get all 27 countries to extend BREXIT but the revocation could be unilateral.

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Nothing I reckon. She maybe will stick to her plan and wait. She did her best, it is outside her power what happens next.
 

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2 minutes ago, Expatriated said:

I know others here don't agree with me but the EU engineered coups in Italy and Greece to replace elected governments with technocrats to do their bidding. They papered this with a weak legal fig leaf but coups they were.

tinfoil hats on counter 3.

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Although it is interesting to read your views how to get out of this clusterf*ck on a political level, this countries population is split in 2 and that sentiment is only getting stronger.  No lipstick on any not-re-negotiable 'deal' will sort that.  Also the divide between Westminster and the man in the street is getting bigger by the day and any trust & respect is largely kaput.

Yup the not so united kingdom is fooked for a long time to come.

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3 minutes ago, LeoV said:

tinfoil hats on counter 3.

https://euobserver.com/economic/114264

https://www.law.ox.ac.uk/business-law-blog/blog/2016/09/necessity-vs-legality-ecb-running-or-ruining-europe

The ECB engineered the final denouement on interest rates to cause this - they put the word out they wouldn't buy Italian bonds and lent on their trading partners. Worked a bit of dodgy Italian legal process through the Italian president et voila! Similar to Greece.

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31 minutes ago, Expatriated said:

The Irish were part of the UK. 

Sorry prior to 1800 Ireland werent part of the UK. Then in 1920 shit fight the British State were sent packing from Ireland. Your similarity is founded on the EU taking over the UK in 1800 and then the UK booting the EU out in 1920. You then seek to try and draw economic and political comparisons between this, 1920 and Brexit today.

You are as smart as bait.

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Brilliant from the second article;
While most of the angry, nationalist, vitriolic attacks against the ECB aren’t worth the twitter feed they are posted on, the actions of the Eurozone’s Central Bank over the last few years do present a challenge to the legal structure of the Union and could ultimately pose a threat to the rule of law.

Tinfoil hats again.

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3 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Sorry prior to 1800 Ireland werent part of the UK. Then in 1920 shit fight the British State were sent packing from Ireland. Your similarity is founded on the EU taking over the UK in 1800 and then the UK booting the EU out in 1920. You then seek to try and draw economic and political comparisons between 1920 and Brexit.

You are are as smart as bait.

OK, I agree the Norman invasion in 1169 didn't make Ireland part of the UK and the Pale of Dublin was only part of the island...

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1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

I'm OK ...I can throw you a spare.

Or a faraday cage for Exp

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Ok, I pick one;
the first, burning bondholders;
https://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/ecb-was-right-to-not-burn-bond-holders-says-european-commission-378330.html

come on, you really live in a real world, it was one of the conditions of the gigantic Ireland bailout, what else did you expect, free money no obligations...

Ireland like Greece etc survived with big loans, they could have refused them, they did not, you smarty pants, back to Brexit, tinfoil hat up against expatriated.

As stated; While most of the angry, nationalist, vitriolic attacks against the ECB aren’t worth the twitter feed they are posted on. recognize yourself ?

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May wins confidence vote with majority of 19

The government has won by 325 votes to 306 - a majority of 19

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Sorry for such a long post but it seems to sum up May well.

Tom Watson from the commons:

First let me say very clearly that I am not one of those people who questioned [May’s] motives.

I agree with [Tory MP Stephen Kerr] who claimed she was motivated by public duty. I don’t doubt that she has sincerely attempted to fulfil the task given to us by the voters in the referendum.

I have no doubt that she has tried her best and given it her all. But she has failed. And I’m afraid the failure is hers. Hers alone ...

Throughout history prime ministers have tried their best and failed.

There is no disgrace in that. That’s politics.

But this prime minister has chosen one last act of defiance - not just defying the laws of politics, but defying the laws of mathematics.

It was a Disraeli who said “a majority is always better than the best repartee.” She is a prime minister without a majority for her flagship policy, with no authority and no plan B

Mr Speaker … that’s not a mere flesh wound

No one doubts her determination, which is generally an admirable quality, but misapplied it can be toxic ...

We know [May] has worked hard. But the truth is she is too set in her ways, too aloof to lead.

She lacks the imagination and agility to bring people with her.

She lacks the authority on the world stage to negotiate this deal.

Ultimately she has failed. It is not through lack of effort It is not through a lack of dedication.

And I think the country recognises that effort. In fact the country feels genuinely sorry for the prime minister.

I feel sorry for the prime minister. But she cannot confuse pity for political legitimacy, sympathy for sustainable support.

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1 hour ago, Expatriated said:

I know the Euro isn't the topic for this thread but the Euro is unsustainable without a banking and fiscal union, including substantial monetary transfers from 'surplus' to 'deficit' countries and regions.  I know this happens with EU structural funds currently but they are nowhere near enough to maintain the single currency are for Italy and Greece - the Germans will not vote for this in the foreseeable future. I seem to recall that any newly joining EU member has to adopt the Euro immediately but i could be mistaken - a bit of Euro discipline would quickly stop the SNP's Nicola Sturgeon smiling.

The Cyprus bank 'bail-in' shows how the rules are supposed to work in a future crisis; I suspect the Greeks will enjoy a moment of schadenfreude if & when Deutsche Bank fails...of course my Maltese trust will probably go to zero too so I will have an unhappy sailmaker! 

I do have an irreverent question for the Irish Republic folks here. In 1922 the Irish state split from the United Kingdom at a substantial economic cost but for political freedom; was this a mistake? If the answer is yes please explain why the United Kingdom is making a mistake in leaving the EU.

 

Ireland became an independent country. There wasn't a vote followed by an agreed withdrawal arrangement, with negotiations and debates. There was a war. No comparison.

1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

That has to be the most bizzare analogy I think I have ever read or heard anywhere about Brexit.

What is this fantasy Brexit equivalent to the Irish War of Independence that you speak of? Are the French firebombing Picadilly Circus as I type?

That war was a guerrilla conflict between the British state and its forces in Ireland. Thats right in Ireland. Ireland didn't leave anything. The British state were the ones booted out. Where is your Brexit religious analogy to the violence largely between Protestant and Catholic? The Italians supported by the Vatican Guard ransacked Westminster Abbey last week?

You need to have a Bex and a long lie down.

+1

1 hour ago, Expatriated said:

Jack - if you can't see a bit of similarity then you are being obtuse and should learn some history; I am half Irish with a grandfather who grew up speaking Gaelic and had returned from America to England before the 1916 uprising.

It is economically best for the UK to remain in the EU. It is not clear to me that remaining in the EU is best for the UK as a society.

 

1 hour ago, Expatriated said:

So you believe a hard border gives the IRA fuckers the excuse (right?) to go back to blowing some people up and knee-capping others?

What the fuck are you on???

You may be half Irish, (if you had one Irish grandparent wouldn't you be quarter Irish???), but in my book you're full dickhead.

Nobody speaks Gaelic in Ireland. Some Scots speak Scots Gaelic. Some Irish speak Gaeilge and Gaelic usually refers to our version of football but Gaelic Games also covers hurling and camogie.

What's the relevance of your Gaelic-speaking grandfather "returning from America to England"? That indicates he went to America from England in the first place.

And you think Jack should learn some history? You should just learn something, anything at all would be nice and an improvement.

I've been around here since the FOYD and in all that time I have been polite. I have some obvious people on ignore but you, Sir, have achieved something to be proud of, and here it is. For the record, I have never used this on SA due to my coolness and superior intellect so this is a big deal for me. 

Fuck off. I hope you die roaring, you ignorant gobshite.

People, please don't quote this asshole.

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It's clear that almost everyone in this thread has no doubts about the EU or many of it's actions. 

As for you Black Sox I'm not going to waste my time.

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2 hours ago, Expatriated said:

I

I do have an irreverent question for the Irish Republic folks here. In 1922 the Irish state split from the United Kingdom at a substantial economic cost but for political freedom; was this a mistake? If the answer is yes please explain why the United Kingdom is making a mistake in leaving the EU.

 

Your analogy is bonker. The Brits had to beg to become member of the EU whereas the Irish got invaded by the English kings. The Irish had to fight a bloody insurrection to gain their freedom whereas anybody is free to leave the EU.

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It is bad that the EU is not giving the UK what the UK wants? It is bad that the EU and it's members are thinking about themself in the first place? You think the EU and it's members are prepered, and looking forwards to the brexit in whatever form or shape it will come? You think it will not hurt the EU and it's members?

 

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4 minutes ago, Panoramix said:

Your analogy is bonker. The Brits had to beg to become member of the EU whereas the Irish got invaded by the English kings. The Irish had to fight a bloody insurrection to gain their freedom whereas anybody is free to leave the EU.

I didn't ask this in the best way but many BREXIT fans of which I'm not one)  believe the economic cost of leaving is worth the political freedom. This has applied in many places that obtained freedom at an economic cost either by peaceful break up - e.g. Slovakia/Czech republic - or through war (ireland, USA and many more)

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2 hours ago, Expatriated said:

 

I do have an irreverent question for the Irish Republic folks here. In 1922 the Irish state split from the United Kingdom at a substantial economic cost but for political freedom; was this a mistake? If the answer is yes please explain why the United Kingdom is making a mistake in leaving the EU.

 

Its a poor analogy.  The Irish were fighting for political freedom to become an independent state, not to leave a free trade zone.  A better analogy would be Tanzania's decision in 1977 to break off from the East African Community.  So perhaps we should ask the Tanzanians if the split which came at a substantial economic cost was a mistake?  If yes, please explain why the UK is making the same mistake in leaving the UK?

The answer  to question 1 is yes both in terms of 3 decades of lost economic opportunity and a war in 1979.   The answer to question 2 is a combination of (i) a massive feeling of disenfranchisement in the North and Midlands where they feel  government doesnt care about them and that anger and blame has been turned towards the EU and (ii) Older people hankering back to a time before the EU when Great Britain ruled the waves.

Hope that helps answer your questions but I'm not sure you really wanted an answer

 

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3 minutes ago, gewoon ik said:

It is bad that the EU is not giving the UK what the UK wants? It is bad that the EU and it's members are thinking about themself in the first place? You think the EU and it's members are prepered, and looking forwards to the brexit in whatever form or shape it will come? You think it will not hurt the EU and it's members?

 

BREXIT will hurt the EU but it will hurt the UK more. A crash out will cause more economic damage than anything else.

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1 minute ago, Mambo Kings said:

Its a poor analogy.  The Irish were fighting for political freedom to become an independent state, not to leave a free trade zone.  A better analogy would be Tanzania's decision in 1977 to break off from the East African Community.  So perhaps we should ask the Tanzanians if the split which came at a substantial economic cost was a mistake?  If yes, please explain why the UK is making the same mistake in leaving the UK?

The answer  to question 1 is yes both in terms of 3 decades of lost economic opportunity and a war in 1979.   The answer to question 2 is a combination of (i) a massive feeling of disenfranchisement in the North and Midlands where they feel  government doesnt care about them and that anger and blame has been turned towards the EU and (ii) Older people hankering back to a time before the EU when Great Britain ruled the waves.

Hope that helps answer your questions but I'm not sure you really wanted an answer

 

Many of the BREXIT fans see BREXIT as gaining independence from the 'EU state'. I don't think the EU is a state but it is heading in that direction at a rate that makes many in the UK and across Europe nervous.

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2 minutes ago, Expatriated said:

I didn't ask this in the best way but many BREXIT fans of which I'm not one)  believe the economic cost of leaving is worth the political freedom. This has applied in many places that obtained freedom at an economic cost either by peaceful break up - e.g. Slovakia/Czech republic - or through war (ireland, USA and many more)

Expat,  You are probably right. Many Brexit supporters have been persuaded to confuse trade agreements and associated trade regulations with political freedom.   However that has been grossly misleading.  The UK is a free and independent sovereign state with its own legislature, its own armed forces, its own courts and a parliamentary democracy and constitutional monarchy that is  different to anything that exists in the rest of the EU .  NOTHING CHANGES in terms of political representation on Brexit.....except the British electorate loses the right to elect members of the European parliament so they will still be subject to EU regulations ( UK manufacturers are still going to be subject to EU regulation if they have any hopes of surviving and UK banks, brokers and insurance companies have already said they will comply with Miffid) but without representation.

If the Brits really want representation closer to home then they need to strengthen local government and make Westminster more accountable to the regions.   David in Derby is not going to notice any more political freedom after Brexit.

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9 minutes ago, Expatriated said:

BREXIT will hurt the EU but it will hurt the UK more. A crash out will cause more economic damage than anything else.

Agreed

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6 minutes ago, Expatriated said:

Many of the BREXIT fans see BREXIT as gaining independence from the 'EU state'. I don't think the EU is a state but it is heading in that direction at a rate that makes many in the UK and across Europe nervous.

Agreed.

 

Sadly its inaccurate.   But the problem with many Remainers is that they havent made the time to understand why people voted for Brexit......instead of calling them stupid (oh so tempting).....it would be better to understand the anguish that caused a majority to vote for Brexit.

If you think they are mistaken  or have got the facts wrong, instead of just correcting them....try and understand the anguish that caused them to be susceptible to misinformation   (same in the US by the way)

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1 minute ago, Mambo Kings said:

Agreed.

 

Sadly its inaccurate.   But the problem with many Remainers is that they havent made the time to understand why people voted for Brexit......instead of calling them stupid (oh so tempting).....it would be better to understand the anguish that caused a majority to vote for Brexit.

If you think they are mistaken  or have got the facts wrong, instead of just correcting them....try and understand the anguish that caused them to be susceptible to misinformation   (same in the US by the way)

I completely agree. 

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9 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:


Brexiteers and people of Sails thinking is the world is going to suddenly engage neutral and come running to their cause? The UK since the Brexit Referendum has being making overtues around the world particularly to Commonwealth countries via the WTA and one on one that they used to have very strong trading links over 40 years ago when they suddenly abandoned them and joined the EU. Virtually without exception they have told the UK to get fucked as they have moved on funningly enough.

Pretty much my attitude. You can still see the remains of the old smallfruit and other orchards here in Tasmania that lost their market when the UK entered the EEC. I've no emotional involvement, I didn't live here at the time, but there's no doubt that the UK thoroughly fucked over Australia back then.

Now - sure, happy to trade, but special deals based on some common past? Fuck off - you guys were the ones who broke that setup not us. Besides it's a piddly small market compared with China, Korea, Japan and to a lesser extent India. What does the UK make that we an't get elsewhere cheaper?

FKT

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6 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Well if any Prime Minister is forced to talk to the opposition because over 100 of her own have left her high and dry that is not party politics. That in the old days was called treason or on a boat mutiny. Maybe it is time someone in the Conservative hierarchy showed some of these 100 and more double digit IQ MP's, most who are unemployable, what a rope looks like. The Thatcher's of the world would show them two ropes. Loose discipline on a boat you sink.

 

Except that *in theory* those MP's are representatives of their constituents *first* and Party members second. They're actually NOT supposed to be so many dummies voting at the command of the leader and the Whips. If that were the case, there's no need for them to be there at all. So your analogy with a ship's captain & mutiny fails.

No, I'm quite happy about how this is playing out. A revolt against a shit sandwich is long overdue and the loss of authority by the leadership cadre sets a valuable precedent for the future.

Pity the US Senate doesn't show as much conviction.

FKT

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1 hour ago, LeoV said:

Hmmm WTO will not be happy with a no border at the Irish border.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-46892372

I think rather that the EU wouldn't like it - the WTO can't do anything about it and the threat that other countries subject to Customs checks in other ports might levy higher tariffs isn't really much of a thread in my mind - doing that is fucking over their own population by increasing the cost of imports. It's not like the UK pays those tariffs after all.

Pretty much what I've been saying for ages - the UK can live with no border between Ireland and NI, the EU has a much bigger problem with it.

Therefore it's their problem and the UK should stop trying to solve it for them.

Besides it's more entertaining this way since I can't see much downside for us regardless of what happens.

FKT

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Still hoping they have the common sense to slam on the brakes before it is too late.

 

thelma-and-louise2_small.jpg

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55 minutes ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

I think rather that the EU wouldn't like it - the WTO can't do anything about it and the threat that other countries subject to Customs checks in other ports might levy higher tariffs isn't really much of a thread in my mind - doing that is fucking over their own population by increasing the cost of imports. It's not like the UK pays those tariffs after all.

Pretty much what I've been saying for ages - the UK can live with no border between Ireland and NI, the EU has a much bigger problem with it.

Therefore it's their problem and the UK should stop trying to solve it for them.

Besides it's more entertaining this way since I can't see much downside for us regardless of what happens.

FKT


Some say a crash out will hurt financially yet the open border allow access to EU trade for free on a small scale, that breaks a few WTO rules but illegal trade is just what the 2 Irelands specialize in.
I wonder how that will look in 5 years?
EU funds a wall but it cant?

The Chinese could do it, one country 2 systems

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1 hour ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

I think rather that the EU wouldn't like it - the WTO can't do anything about it and the threat that other countries subject to Customs checks in other ports might levy higher tariffs isn't really much of a thread in my mind - doing that is fucking over their own population by increasing the cost of imports. It's not like the UK pays those tariffs after all.

Pretty much what I've been saying for ages - the UK can live with no border between Ireland and NI, the EU has a much bigger problem with it.

Therefore it's their problem and the UK should stop trying to solve it for them.

Besides it's more entertaining this way since I can't see much downside for us regardless of what happens.

FKT

Couldn't you say that the opposite is exactly true as well???

the UK EU can live with A no border between Ireland and NI, the UK EU has a much bigger problem with it. Therefore it's their problem and the UK EU should stop trying to solve it for them.

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Does anyone know how many problems the Norway-Sweden border causes?

I know Norway separated from Sweden in 1905 but not much about why.

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5 hours ago, gewoon ik said:

It is bad that the EU is not giving the UK what the UK wants?

Do you leave a glass of milk and cookies out for burglers? As for what the UK wants I'm not too sure anyone on planet earth can answer that question. For instance for some Brexit is still staying in the common market etc. The list goes on.

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5 hours ago, Expatriated said:

I didn't ask this in the best way but many BREXIT fans of which I'm not one)  believe the economic cost of leaving is worth the political freedom.

Not one Brexiteer has said that, being this is solely a political move and forget the economics.

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3 hours ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

So your analogy with a ship's captain & mutiny fails.

I blame the visions of Rees Mogg being keel hauled.

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15 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Not one Brexiteer has said that, being this is solely a political move and forget the economics.

Maybe not the prominent plonkers - Ress-Mogg & Boris but:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/12/brexit-vote-is-about-the-supremacy-of-parliament-and-nothing-els/

https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/12/12/was-wrong-brexit/P9xUZuE1OGjpkV1wxiZ79J/story.html

I don't fully agree with these points but they are worth noting.

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6 hours ago, Mambo Kings said:

Sadly its inaccurate.   But the problem with many Remainers is that they havent made the time to understand why people voted for Brexit......instead of calling them stupid (oh so tempting).....it would be better to understand the anguish that caused a majority to vote for Brexit.

If you think they are mistaken  or have got the facts wrong, instead of just correcting them....try and understand the anguish that caused them to be susceptible to misinformation   (same in the US by the way)

The UK and the US (and some other countries) share an identical issue being having large slabs of a population feeling disenfranchised economically and socially and perceptions that immigration is partly to blame.

The USA's response is America First. Whether their policy response is right or wrong is irrelevant. For instance the government want to boost business confidence, investment and productivity. They wanted to become a leading oil exporter, (which they have over 3 administration's) even if to the detriment of the environment. Etc etc.

On the  other hand the Brexiteers response  on behalf of the UK is all they have to do is just leave the EU. No heavy lifting required. No mention is made of productivity or that business confidence and investment has plumeted since the Referendum. No understanding that record employment is because business is not investing in productivity but divesting in favour of employing more people and cheaply, that when the crunch comes they let them go on a Friday and they are not encumbered by investment in new expensive plant and equipment, rendered useless by a Brexit downturn.

The Remainers understand this and if they don't that is irelevant when they form their view on Leavers. More to the point what prominent Leavers have asked the question of their Remainer counterparts, why do you want to stay? If they have they would have been told the above, but still they continue on regardless. 

Brexit is just a lazy cop out painted in slogans that exacerbates the position of the disenfranchised who voted for it. I suspect many Leavers are now starting to understand that.

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27 minutes ago, Expatriated said:

I can't access those but they will have I'm sure economic disadvantage underpinning slogans about being under the political thumb of the EU.

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1 hour ago, Laurent said:

Couldn't you say that the opposite is exactly true as well???

the UK EU can live with A no border between Ireland and NI, the UK EU has a much bigger problem with it. Therefore it's their problem and the UK EU should stop trying to solve it for them.

You could say that, sure. I don't care.

At this point the UK *cannot* get an agreement that's acceptable to the EU through their parliament. That's a fact.

Toss it back to the EU and let them deal with it. So far the UK has been purely reactive. It's time to consider just how damaging a hard Brexit with a NI free trade zone would actually be, and who would be the worse off for it.

It's that or some variant on remaining attached to all the EU rules including free movement of people but without any say in making those rules, or rescinding the exit trigger.

FKT

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5 hours ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

Except that *in theory* those MP's are representatives of their constituents *first* and Party members second. They're actually NOT supposed to be so many dummies voting at the command of the leader and the Whips. If that were the case, there's no need for them to be there at all. So your analogy with a ship's captain & mutiny fails.

Fah my post was to someone saying this mess was about party politics, when clearly it isn't with the Rees Mogg 100 running amuck. My remedy for May to start keel-hauling a few rebels certainly flys in the face of the individual electoral represention you mention.

Fah maybe this is the core issue being the Westminster system can't cope with the whole problem here....there are simply too many groups that want too many different things. The system itself has simply shat itself.

I suspect that is what is driving those supporting a 2nd Referendum for the public to vote on either a very specific deal or to remain. Trouble is to get agreement to a People's Vote divides Parliament yet again and along a different fault line. The pendulum of outcome influence is now swinging to the Remainers because of this.

I can't imagine the tension in that place. I'm for the first time starting to feel sorry for politicians.

 

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Fah maybe this is the core issue being the Westminster system can't cope with the whole problem here....there are simply too many groups that want too many different things. The system itself has simply shat itself.

I suspect that you are right. We're finally seeing a clash between 'direct' democracy (referendum) and representative democracy as interpreted by a Party structure. And, in the case of the UK, for the first (??) time.

Australian politicians are more used to this - they put up mainly self-serving referendum questions and most of the time they get it thrown back in their face. However those that do get up are binding constitutional changes so little wiggle room.

As in the case of Royal Commissions, you need to be very, very careful about the question(s) or terms of reference. Clearly the politicians expected the Brexit vote to lose and it didn't. They can probably thank the EU and in particular Merkel for that one, letting all the 'refugees' into Germany then insisting that the rest of the EU countries had to take their 'fair share'.

Part of the problem (same as the USA) is optional voting. However the critics of a decision/election can't have it both ways - if voting is optional and 15.001% of the 30% who voted say yea or nay, it's binding - you don't get to bitch that only the 15.001% made the decision. The others opted out, that was their choice. Suck it up or change the rules. So as far as I'm concerned the Brexit vote is binding, the UK is leaving the EU and if it can't be by negotiation, it's a hard exit. Full stop.

Not, I may add, that my opinion counts for anything at all and I'm well aware of that.

As I've said I think it's funny but I've no skin in the game and can't think of any downside for my country regardless of how it goes. There *might* be some upside, but realistically, not likely and not anything significant. The UK isn't going to start taking megatonnes of our exports and they don't make anything we can't get elsewhere. They only have a population of 66 million after all, probably more millionaires in China than that.

FKT

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You can set up a new party in a few days but the history of the SDP stands as an Awful Warning to those considering splitting from a major party. Remember we have a first past the post system. 

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5 hours ago, Expatriated said:

Does anyone know how many problems the Norway-Sweden border causes?

I know Norway separated from Sweden in 1905 but not much about why.

I know the Norwegians trailer their skidoos across the open border into Sweden where they get drunk, remove the engine limiters and rip around having a good time.

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1 hour ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

As I've said I think it's funny but I've no skin in the game and can't think of any downside for my country regardless of how it goes. There *might* be some upside, but realistically, not likely and not anything significant.

Aust should count its lucky stars this loopy is still not PM.

"Freed from EU rules, Britain would automatically revert to world trade, using rules agreed by the World Trade Organization. It works pretty well for Australia. So why on earth would it not work just as well for the world’s fifth-largest economy?"

"A world trade Brexit lets Britain set its own rules. It can say, right now, that it will not impose any tariff or quota on European produce and would recognise all EU product standards. That means no border controls for goods coming from Europe to Britain. You don’t need to negotiate this: just do it."

That is a case for their being no need to have a EU. God Europe must be a bunch of dumb fucks, similarly the UK for over 40 years. Crikey EU certified goods coming into Australia tarriff free and visa versa can go through some special express lane requiring no border and customs control anymore. Wow someone should alert the WTO and all its signature countries. This guy has found the worlds magic economic bullet.

If the UK wants to listen to another expert backseat driver looking for a wreck to happen, this is their man.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/tony-abbott-how-to-save-brexit/

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Just now, jack_sparrow said:

Aust should count its lucky stars this loopy is still not PM.

"Freed from EU rules, Britain would automatically revert to world trade, using rules agreed by the World Trade Organization. It works pretty well for Australia. So why on earth would it not work just as well for the world’s fifth-largest economy?"

"A world trade Brexit lets Britain set its own rules. It can say, right now, that it will not impose any tariff or quota on European produce and would recognise all EU product standards. That means no border controls for goods coming from Europe to Britain. You don’t need to negotiate this: just do it."

That is a case for their being no need to have a EU. God Europe must be a bunch of dumb fucks, similarly the UK for over 40 years. Crikey EU certified goods coming into Australia tarriff free and visa versa don't have go through some special express lane requiring no border and customs control anymore. Wow someone should alert the WTA and all its signature countries. This guy has found the worlds magic economic bullet.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/tony-abbott-how-to-save-brexit/

Abbott is a classic case of the Peter Principle in action. As Opposition Leader he did a wonderful job of destroying 2 Labor PM's, one of them twice.

As PM himself, the finest achievement he managed was his speech when he was turfed out by Turnbull. And he lied in that too......

Brexit has a lot of legs yet - I'm waiting for April 1, the big question is who the joke is actually *on* though.....

FKT

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Tony Abbot clearly has no experience of exporting to/reimporting from Australia!

The customs barrier is a major pain in the hole and cost to doing business.

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44 minutes ago, rgeek said:

Tony Abbot clearly has no experience of exporting to/reimporting from Australia!

The customs barrier is a major pain in the hole and cost to doing business.

yep

if it wasnt for the huge mines and some farms , I 'd hate to think how much lower the standard of living in the lucky country would be?

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1 hour ago, Sailabout said:

yep

if it wasnt for the huge mines and some farms , I 'd hate to think how much lower the standard of living in the lucky country would be?

Kind of like the easily accessible coal and iron oar in the UK back in the day.

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13 hours ago, Black Sox said:

 

Nobody speaks Gaelic in Ireland. Some Scots speak Scots Gaelic. Some Irish speak Gaeilge and Gaelic usually refers to our version of football but Gaelic Games also covers hurling and camogie.

 

If you wish to use that comparison the Gaels in Scotland don't speak Gaelic either they speak..

Gàidhlig.

Which I means  LISTEN, ( and probably does for Gaeilge), something precious few are doing.

 

Especially Corbyn who having voted in parliament for a exit that may include a hard Brexit, is now refusing to meet with May to discuss the stalemate, to find a solution, claiming he won't because it includes the possibility of a hard brexit.

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8 minutes ago, The Q said:

If you wish to use that comparison the Gaels in Scotland don't speak Gaelic either they speak..

Gàidhlig.

Which I means  LISTEN, ( and probably does for Gaeilge), something precious few are doing.

 

Especially Corbyn who having voted in parliament for a exit that may include a hard Brexit, is now refusing to meet with May to discuss the stalemate, to find a solution, claiming he won't because it includes the possibility of a hard brexit.

Yup. No need to get fancy. We're talking in English. The national language of (the Republic of) Ireland is Irish.

Mind you the second most spoken language in Ireland is now Polish...

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7 hours ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

Toss it back to the EU and let them deal with it. So far the UK has been purely reactive. It's time to consider just how damaging a hard Brexit with a NI free trade zone would actually be, and who would be the worse off for it.

A hard Brexit will not lead to NI free trade zone I think.

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