Meat Wad

Brexit, WTF

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7 hours ago, LeoV said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/08/brexit-no-deal-crisis-command-centre-starts-hiring-civilians

Noting to see, business as usual, blame the EU.
This can not be true...
The recruits for EUXE must be able to “see the emergency trends with little or no information and act appropriately at pace”.
They must also be “a horizon scanner – someone who is looking up and out into the working environment to spot early indications of approaching issues or emergencies”.
The situation officers “must be unflappable” with the “ability to work in an area of high public and media interest” and have the “ability to make sound, logical judgments based on possibly incomplete or imperfect information”. Applicants are being recruited on a six-month contract with an option for three-month extensions up to two years.

For fucks sake, how long can I stay on holiday in europe for? I can feel a long summer break coming up very soon. 

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6 hours ago, IPLore said:

It is well publicized over here in the US that the US intends to rebalance what it considers an unfair trade agreement with the UK.

At its most basic, the UK charges VAT on American goods and services sold over there. The US does not charge sales tax on UK goods sold directly to customers over here.  We charge a ridiculously low customs duty on UK goods that they only get away with because they sneak in under the EU umbrella.  When that umbrella gets taken away, then the Trump Administration has made no secret of the fact that trade terms will be "tough but fair" going forward.    

There’s VAT and other duties levied on just about every product sold in the UK, regardless of where it comes from. 

At the most basic,  do some research. 

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5 hours ago, Mark Set said:

UK is going to be fine after Brexit, its the EU that will suffer.

That’s fucking hilarious, got any cites for that? Even the government is shitting itself about it. :lol:

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30 minutes ago, mad said:

There’s VAT and other duties levied on just about every product sold in the UK, regardless of where it comes from. 

At the most basic,  do some research. 

Look, I've heard that shit from US citizens a lot over the years. They think that somehow VAT/GST disadvantages US exports to our countries while we all get a free ride on our exports to them because of the credits for exports. It's pointless even trying to explain it to them, saves a lot of time to just mock them and ignore it.

As for that US wish list WRT a 'free trade agreement', don't. Just don't. We signed up to some of those clauses and when the TPP came around there was a lot of pushback. Even then we still sold our own interests down the river IMO. The saving thing was Trump's stupidity & greed by telling everyone we all had to give the USA more or they wouldn't sign. Great decision by him, about the only one I fully agreed with.

FKT

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53 minutes ago, mad said:

For fucks sake, how long can I stay on holiday in europe for? I can feel a long summer break coming up very soon. 

I am not a bad cook, have a spare room and one of the most wonderful maritime playgrounds anywhere. Welcome.

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8 minutes ago, cms said:

I am not a bad cook, have a spare room and one of the most wonderful maritime playgrounds anywhere. Welcome.

Cheers. Can you send Red Cross food parcels if they close the borders? :P

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6 minutes ago, mad said:

Cheers. Can you send Red Cross food parcels if they close the borders? :P

What are your priorities? Cancale oysters, St Brieuc scallops, agneau de pré salé, perhaps some foie gras? Breton or Normandy cider? Maybe just lots of 10 litre Super U Bordeaux wine boxes? Regular deliveries, whatever the fuckwits decide.

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1 hour ago, Terry Hollis said:

Read my post again .. I was referring to CHILLED MEAT not FROZEN BEEF.

You missed my point. By chilled you are referring principaly to lamb which both Aust and NZ have a trade agreement with the EU that involves no or small tarriffs and quota based. I don't think both countries ever fill their quotas so realty is a small portion of their red meat (chilled or frozen) exports as seen by total beef exports and total US beef imports for each country I posted. BTW if quotas are split by EU that simply means UK share at a current low tarriff has a different deal, it doesn't disappear. If you listen to No Deal Leavers that is zero tarriff courtesy of old GATT Article 24 (which is nonsense).

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10 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

You missed my point. By chilled you are referring principaly to lamb which both Aust and NZ have a trade agreement with the EU that involves no or small tarriffs and quota based. I don't think both countries ever fill their quotas so realty is a small portion of their red meat (chilled or frozen) exports as seen by total beef exports and total US beef imports for each country I posted. BTW if quotas are split by EU that simply means UK share at a current low tarriff has a different deal, it doesn't disappear. If you listen to No Deal Leavers that is zero tarriff courtesy of old GATT Article 24 (which is nonsense).

New Zealand also exports chilled beef mostly to China and it's chilled meat that will be replaced if Ireland is out of the loop.

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30 minutes ago, Terry Hollis said:

New Zealand also exports chilled beef mostly to China and it's chilled meat that will be replaced if Ireland is out of the loop.

We are both on the same page. The ones who aren't are Leavers who think their share of imports currently to the EU as a single market from the outside world (like NZ chilled lamb) and their imports from the EU,  all by some miracle from God stay "as is" after 30 March with no or little pricing or logistical change.

Perishable foodstuffs are unique as they are both a "just in time" product and going without means either starvation or a dietary change. The closest analogy for UK consumers I can think of in terms of the disruption and pricing they might experience if Brexit goes pear shaped, is the foot and mouth outbreak there nearly two decades ago.

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

The closest analogy for UK consumers I can think of in terms of the disruption and pricing they might experience if Brexit goes pear shaped, is the foot and mouth outbreak there nearly two decades ago.

 And don't forget mad cow disease. Looks like it has broken out already, or rather the English never got rid of it.

26809-hdpu04.jpg.827ff9c9a60d8003e3993143867f314c.jpg

More here: https://www.google.com/search?q=mad+cow+farage&tbm=isch&ved=2ahUKEwiQ-KSyv63gAhWLhnAKHbHuCiYQ2-cCegQIABAC&oq=mad+cow+farage&gs_l=mobile-gws-wiz-img.3...8433.18537..20948...0.0..0.806.6046.2-2j3j1j4j2......0....1.........0j0i7i30j0i8i7i30j0i8i13i30.XX_mj1_mT08&ei=OSxeXND3AYuNwgOx3auwAg&bih=445&biw=792&prmd=ivn#imgrc=HPH-LwciF_PzDM.   :D

 

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OK, so I'm still trying to understand what is going on . . .  

Question for you: Is the Labor Party's position reasonable? 

(Five conditions, right?) 

May seems to have no control over her own caucus, 

which seems to leave it up to Labor. 

What should they do ?  What will they do ? 

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7 minutes ago, AJ Oliver said:

OK, so I'm still trying to understand what is going on . . .  

Question for you: Is the Labor Party's position reasonable? 

(Five conditions, right?) 

May seems to have no control over her own caucus, 

which seems to leave it up to Labor. 

What should they do ?  What will they do ? 

Labour is more fucked up than the Tories. Which is hard to believe but true. 

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50 minutes ago, Gissie said:

Labour is more fucked up than the Tories. Which is hard to believe but true. 

Well, that is as it may be, but you did not answer the questions. . . 

which I realize are challenging - 

Just hoping for a bit of enlightenment here . .

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50 minutes ago, AJ Oliver said:

Well, that is as it may be, but you did not answer the questions. . . 

which I realize are challenging - 

Just hoping for a bit of enlightenment here . .

Labour can only say yes or no to the proposal. So they can say what they want but then again it is why they call it opposition. As for the idea, the Norway thing is a pathetic idea. They would get to live by the customs rules, pay lots of money to the EU and have no say in anything. Of course you could also have found this out with just a small amount of effort for yourself. 

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7 minutes ago, Gissie said:

Of course you could also have found this out with just a small amount of effort for yourself. 

Ohhhh that smarts !! 

But wait !!  Cannot Labor get a free vote? 

And Ummmm Labor has taken a stand here.  (Friend Google) 

I sorta don't think that you know as much as you claim .  .

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4 minutes ago, AJ Oliver said:

Ohhhh that smarts !! 

But wait !!  Cannot Labor get a free vote? 

And Ummmm Labor has taken a stand here.  (Friend Google) 

I sorta don't think that you know as much as you claim .  .

Labour has taken a stand. Really, as long as taking both sides and arguing over it among themselves is taking a stand, then yeah they have. 

Corbyns ideas are not supported by many in his party and, much like the man himself, not much use. 

But whatever floats your boat. 

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Just remember that Labour's 5 conditions are not their own creation. They are the 5 conditions the Tories promised in their election manifesto, that Labour then said they would hold the Tories accountable for. The 5 conditions are self-contradictory, hence this has allowed Labour to avoid making any promises themselves, safe in the knowledge the Tories would fail to achieve them.

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8 minutes ago, hump101 said:

They are the 5 conditions the Tories promised in their election manifesto, 

Not a Customs Union. That will split Tories down the middle and why Labour have put it up. A win win for Labour and poison pill for the Torys.

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Not sure about that. The government is holding the negotiation with the EU, not parliament. So May still has control.over the deal.

Labour is terrified of being blamed for.a.poor deal, which is what's keeping the majority remain in check. Despite the protestations it's seen as an aportune moment to damage the Tories. The party conference passed a week motion with the focus on causing a general election. Just before xmas.Corbyn started gibbering on about reinstate subsidy rules. As a reminder it doesn't matter what he personally thinks should be negotiated as he is a very long way from forming a government.

Labour's.only option is to set out a position that would give Tory remain rebbles hope. Ken Clarke backing of May effectively killed that and signalled that even he is.putting his party first.

All that points to it all falling back to a final vote on no deal vs may deal once everyone is drinking in the last chance saloon. No dealers.have clearly.know this for some time as they have been.making noises about going "A few weeks" past the exit in order to get an agreement. Death by inches they hope.

Then again, who knows!!!!!

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4 hours ago, AJ Oliver said:

OK, so I'm still trying to understand what is going on . . .  

Question for you: Is the Labor Party's position reasonable? 

(Five conditions, right?) 

May seems to have no control over her own caucus, 

which seems to leave it up to Labor. 

What should they do ?  What will they do ? 

We all are trying to understand it, there is so much going on and on the same time there is nothing going on..
I shall try:
Labour; not reasonable, they know one part of it will never go down on the EU side (UK to have veto in future EU treaties), it shows it is politics, not realism behind the proposal.
It shows that Labour wants to let the Tories own a No Deal, they can say they tried to compromise.
The deal Labour wants is more soft then Mays's original deal... so you could think that the right wing Tories (ERG) would support now May's old deal. But in words of an unanimous  Tory MP, they are crazy and are hell bent on a No Deal since 5 months or so.

So will some labour MP's with some Tory Mp's make enough votes for the deal May will put up for voting ? The plan will be much the same as the old plan unless the EU throw them a bone with regards to the Backstop. But ERG and others will try to find something else then they can not agree on as not the WA is the problem, it is dealing for the coming ten years about a trade agreement they want to avoid. Because they are afraid it will then be a softer agreement.

And if it boils to a No Deal or May Deal, on the last moment I think, if every MP let loose their party rules, there is a majority to trust the EU and make a deal like May's plan A.
But with party politics and whips and their voting district pressure , not enough..
And why wait till the last moment... May still can decide to quit (seems unlikely but who knows). Or a parliament that blocks a No Deal (as if there suddenly is a majority for). Meaning revoke or new elections are still on the table. Instead of default No Deal. So there is still something to fight for.
I think, but hey, its difficult, I can be wrong.

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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/09/government-cancels-brexit-ferry-contract-with-no-ship-firm

A controversial no-deal Brexit ferry contract awarded to a firm with no ships has been cancelled by the Department for Transport.
The decision by the transport secretary, Chris Grayling, to award Seaborne Freight a contract worth £13.8m had attracted widespread criticism.
The department said on Friday it had decided to terminate the contract after the Irish company Arklow Shipping, which had backed Seaborne Freight, stepped away from the deal. A DfT spokeswoman said: “Following the decision of Seaborne Freight’s backer, Arklow Shipping, to step back from the deal, it became clear Seaborne would not reach its contractual requirements with the government. We have therefore decided to terminate our agreement.

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48 days to go, and plans are made.
To fight inflation, this is part conservative, part liberal;
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/101703/government-draws-secret-plans-slash-taxes-and-tariffs

Secret plans are being drawn up to slash taxes and cut tariffs if the UK leaves the European Union without a deal, it has been reported.
Among the plans being considered is cutting corporation tax and VAT to encourage more business investment, according to the paper.(Liberal, free trade etc)
Another Whitehall plan, codenamed Project Bluebell, is looking at how specific sectors such as agriculture, car manufacturing and pharmaceuticals could be protected if there is no Brexit deal. (Conservative, protect)

Here is the first inkling that even after a No Deal, there will be political infighting in the CP.

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6 minutes ago, LeoV said:

A controversial no-deal Brexit ferry contract awarded to a firm with no ships has been cancelled by the Department for Transport.
The decision by the transport secretary, Chris Grayling ..........
 

Haha, Failing Grayling strikes again.

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25 minutes ago, LeoV said:

A controversial no-deal Brexit ferry contract awarded to a firm with no ships has been cancelled by the Department for Transport.

What they don't say is the local budget for Port upgrade to take the mystery ferry has just gone tits up.

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48 minutes ago, rgeek said:

The government is holding the negotiation with the EU, not parliament. So May still has control.over the deal.

Can that be ended in UK law ? Revolt by parliament, MP on horse back kidnapping the maze ?

Oh damn,
Parliament can block a deal, but not a No Deal, unless a vote of no confidence.

A successful no confidence vote in the government would not automatically trigger a general election – there would first be a 14-day period during which there could be attempts to form an alternative government, perhaps led by a new (or interim) prime minister.

In such circumstances, the only other route to an early election is if it’s supported by a two thirds majority vote in the House of Commons. This would prompt an immediate election, and was the device May used to trigger the 2017 general election. But it would also require cross-party support, most likely from among Conservative and Labour MPs who oppose a “no deal” Brexit. Reaching any agreement between the government and opposition on this would be very difficult at such a tense time.

older article, but right so far in its conclusions;
https://theconversation.com/what-happens-if-parliament-rejects-a-brexit-deal-103939

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1 minute ago, rgeek said:

"Secret plans" PMSL

Yeah, Liam Fox spilled the beans a few days ago about the plans in a business meeting, was not confirmed then, with two sources it looks like it was true.
Nr 10 denied off course a few days ago.

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"We will you know, we will, just try us"

Do you think the EU will blink?

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In a small way they will blink, a small concession like a 30 year time limit on the backstop, why not ?
But for many in the UK NI staying under EU umbrella is unacceptable. So why blink to much, will not work, just do it for public.

And many see this as;
We get rid of the UK, will cost us billions, but we can redirect trade like we did with Russian boycott, and this is political the right time to get rid of the UK MEP.
And the EU will absorb many UK based companies, goods and services, what is not to like about that.
In the coming years UK will be or poorer and then less important as a market. Or rich as now or richer, so still an export market for the EU. And geographic a partner in politics as much as they are now in the EU, they will not point their missiles to the EU I think.

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6 hours ago, AJ Oliver said:

OK, so I'm still trying to understand what is going on . . .  

Question for you: Is the Labor Party's position reasonable? 

(Five conditions, right?) 

May seems to have no control over her own caucus, 

which seems to leave it up to Labor. 

What should they do ?  What will they do ? 

Labour will do what they’ve done all the way, sit on the fence and fling shit. They’re incapable of doing anything else. 

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

What they don't say is the local budget for Port upgrade to take the mystery ferry has just gone tits up.

I have a tug there now to tow a dredger away after this blow has gone through. Go Figure !

I guess we'll be back there soon to 'relocate' the large jack-up construction platform as well.

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3 hours ago, LeoV said:

48 days to go, and plans are made.
To fight inflation, this is part conservative, part liberal;
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/101703/government-draws-secret-plans-slash-taxes-and-tariffs

Secret plans are being drawn up to slash taxes and cut tariffs if the UK leaves the European Union without a deal, it has been reported.
Among the plans being considered is cutting corporation tax and VAT to encourage more business investment, according to the paper.(Liberal, free trade etc)
Another Whitehall plan, codenamed Project Bluebell, is looking at how specific sectors such as agriculture, car manufacturing and pharmaceuticals could be protected if there is no Brexit deal. (Conservative, protect)

Here is the first inkling that even after a No Deal, there will be political infighting in the CP.

Definitely one of the cards the U.K would have left to play in a No Deal scenario...a card they might/would have to show face up in any Deal with the EU.

The article mentions medicine and agricultural sectors, but presumably 'corporate tax breaks' would be extended to financial service firms, if it gets to that, as well. Should their be any sign of a meaningful exodus of HQ firms from the City of London(as opposed to the setting up of satellite firms/branch plants inside the EU which, I would argue, is par for the course), the U.K might end up being in a position to offer tax advantages that (I would assume) might be more restricted under bi-lateral agreements within the EU(i.e. Specific sector based tax inducements being construed as unfair trade).

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That's a huge gamble on the political stability of the country at large at a time when Brexit its self shows how open to popularism the UK is at the moment.

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1 hour ago, Laser1 said:

I have a tug there now to tow a dredger away after this blow has gone through. Go Figure !

I guess we'll be back there soon to 'relocate' the large jack-up construction platform as well.

is dredging done ? along with the news that the Seabourne deal was off -what a surprise !!!- it was mentioned overhere that dredging was 'nearly' done. on this side of the story there have always been big doubts about the info that came out of Ramsgate, lots of noise, little certainties.

just out of curiosity, what jack-up would that be, other than a zillion windcats and the like don't see no jack-up in marinetraffic ...could tell you stories about one of the bigger ones, the Vole au Vent, currently located in Oostende...

Oostende mayor on the failed Seabourne con job : "there are  already other contenders, but we need more certainties, and for sure we will NOT be ready end of march" ... me thinks that even if ever they can get a new  ferry liine up and going, it will only be temporarily, long term economical viability does not look good.

back to six nations, wink.

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7 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Not a Customs Union. That will split Tories down the middle and why Labour have put it up. A win win for Labour and poison pill for the Torys.

My bad, I'm mixing up the 5 conditions with the 6 tests!

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Two questions for this thread:

1) Why would anyone (or any collection of ones, like, say, a whole country of them) want to shackle themselves to the anchor of a sinking ship, the Euro?  It is absolutely doomed, and was from the start.  One simply cannot have national fiscal policy and supra-national fiat-currency monetary policy.  I find it hard to believe that such stupidity exists at these rarified levels of governance, but if you listen to too many P[iled]H[igher]andD[eeper]s, you get "educated" into it.  It is independence of currencies and exchange-rate variation that allows the negative-feedback required to ensure that homeostasis (not simply "balance") occurs within the system.  Lazy Germans can run up their national debt running constant deficits as the productive and organised folk in the PIGS run surpluses and lend it out to others.  Or vice versa.  It's the exchange rate mechanism and [national] currency-flows that allows the balance (ok, ok) to occur, and to ensure skin-in-the-game, and that eventually the productive are rewarded and the indolent "punished".  If they had consolidated all national debts *before* creating the supra-national currency, the Euro might have stood a chance.  But then "countries'" "governments" would have had to have been subject to fiscal budget-blessing by the uber-authority.  Ie, not much left of our traditional understanding of the quoted terms, to which "sovereign" used to apply.  Yes, there are globalists out there.  Yes, they have been at it for a while.  They probably think it would be a Good Thing.  The Euro-Founders may even have understood all I say here, and proceeded anyway, knowing that inevitably the monetary union would lead to either war/withdrawal or national subjugation.  No tin-foil toque here, but, c'mon folks, open your eyes!  VAT and quotas and tariffs and such?  Mere frills and distraction to what is really going on here.  Typical "free trade deals" do very little good for the little guy, other than create a costly bureaucratic nightmare maze that actually thwarts freedom of trade.  Here is a free trade deal that makes sense: "We two national authorities will not interfere in trade between our nations' citizens.  We will keep out of your way.  Please trade."  There, that was easy.  I have had to do import and export (in Canada, not E-U-K).  I read a good chunk of the TPP.  Governance and authority is an industry with a ravenous appetite for other's people productive efforts, and an excess of growth hormone.  And a gun pointed at your wallet, which is in your shirt-pocket, right over your heart.  Wake up.  Smell the stupidity.

2) What the hell is this still doing in SA?  Off to PA with y'all.  Or we should start "Economic Anarchy", and post there, because that's where they are steering this ship.  All aboard...

ben

"We are born ignorant.   It is education that makes us stupid."
"Why do I not run for office? I am completely un-electable because I tell the truth." 
"None are so enslaved as they who falsely believe they are free."

etc...

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2 hours ago, rgeek said:

That's a huge gamble on the political stability of the country at large at a time when Brexit its self shows how open to popularism the UK is at the moment.

Yes it's a gamble. It is unfortunate that a bid to re-establish sovereignty is conflated with and sullied by the winds of populism and nationalism.

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The UK doesn't use the euro. It's shakled to Europe by geography and can't just wish that away. 

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14 minutes ago, fufkin said:

Yes it's a gamble. It is unfortunate that a bid to re-establish sovereignty is conflated with and sullied by the winds of populism and nationalism.

Go on then. Make a pitch for sovereignty. No one else has gone into any detail

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13 minutes ago, bacq2bacq said:

What the hell is this still doing in SA?  Off to PA with y'all

Because this place contains people with more than double digit IQ's. That other place you speak off is a cess pit. 

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On February 8, 2019 at 10:33 AM, Panoramix said:

I am pretty sure that google has sales people in France. I didn't know that the Dutch were also involved but I am pretty sure that Google is mightier than the French state. If I pay for an ad in the local paper Ouest-France, the French tax man will definitely get more revenue than if I do so in Google. I know it will soon be better thanks to the EU but even the EU struggles to get Google to play fair and square.

When RGeek refers to Ireland's double-tax, it centres around tech and med firms ability to declare IP as a tangeable, taxable asset. The problem for the country buying the import, wether it be a computer or a box of meds, is that the value of the IP can be pretty arbitrary, about as arbitrary as any other multinational firm valuing a 'consulting fee' that they 'buy back' from a low-tax jurisdiction that they have previously shifted their profits to. In the double-tax scenario, the value of the IP becomes an embedded cost in the box of meds or computer, closing the loop for the country buying the product or being sold the service to collect tax on profit.

Importantly, the sales tax or employment benefits, dispersed over 26 EU countries is of minuscule benefit when compared to the 'trickle down' benefits realized back in Ireland, the (soon to be?) one EU country benefiting from a low corporate tax structure and providing an English workforce and springboard into the EU for US based tech and pharmaceuticals. 

The Ireland vs EU Apple tax dispute highlights the efforts of the EU to make all countries play fair, but just as the double-tax loophole was declared cancelled, a couple of other loopholes sprang up like weeds to maintain the tax% status-quo. The Trump administration is also threatening to get aggressive with new efforts to repatriate 'American profits' from Ireland. The problem, and it will continue long after the dust settles from the Brexit skirmish, is the never ending abilities of multi-nationals to engage in 'transfer pricing' and shift profits to low tax jurisdictions. The long arm of the EU had enough trouble with the member state Ireland, let alone a potential non-member state, the U.K. 

One interesting scenario would be another round of trade disputes between Ireland and EU post Brexit. In the Apple round, the EU threatened to enforce a distribution of all Apple taxes to all 27 EU countries if Ireland continued to characterize Apples operations in their country as stateless. Fearing big repercussions to their 'host-plant' economy, they paid up. The Irish economy has become pretty much dependent on U.S branch plants setting up shop. If they are squeezed again, this time by both the EU and US, is there a play for the UK in the tax-inducement game for a bunch of US companies that are already just a stone' throw away?

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43 minutes ago, rgeek said:

Go on then. Make a pitch for sovereignty. No one else has gone into any detail

I don't make a pitch either way, other than that it is any nations right to defend it, re establish it, or establish it in the first place. I just think that populism and nationalism, if inflamed, are an unfortunate byproduct of the process.

Of course, one could argue that a referendum is in itself populist, but that's another story.

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Trumps has no beef with Ireland. The money isn't in here. It's in Bermuda (in the case of Google) and other zero tax destinations. Ireland is just a stepping stone.

Judging by his tax plan, Trump is just making noise while waiting for timing to offer a deal. It'll happen at the point the markets need a kick. Just like the last time under Clinton all the "it'll create jobs" will turn out to be bollocks and the money will go straight to into boosting asset values.

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46 minutes ago, fufkin said:

I don't make a pitch either way, other than that it is any nations right to defend it, re establish it, or establish it in the first place. I just think that populism and nationalism, if inflamed, are an unfortunate byproduct of the process.

Of course, one could argue that a referendum is in itself populist, but that's another story.

Sure. But thinking that Britain resides in glorious isolation is a bit nieve. Doing deals takes muscle, timing and compromise.

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A. We like it here thanks.

B. Glad we are all largely ignoring Mr Euro = Armageddon.

C. His way simply means the strong and rich screw the weak and vulnerable. EU may not make sense to some economically, but it was always a primarily social project, and has delivered a lot despite ups and downs, and has avoided wars not created them (even in the future).

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16 minutes ago, cms said:

A. We like it here thanks.

B. Glad we are all largely ignoring Mr Euro = Armageddon.

C. His way simply means the strong and rich screw the weak and vulnerable. EU may not make sense to some economically, but it was always a primarily social project, and has delivered a lot despite ups and downs, and has avoided wars not created them (even in the future).

Maybe be avoided war but the tensions are increasing...https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/07/world/europe/france-italy-ambassador-yellow-vests.html

The Euro will soon mean a decision has to be taken by the EU members to maintain the Euro - either a full fiscal and banking union or see Italy, Greece and other countries forced off the Euro. Tax harmonization is coming and will hit some countries hard. 

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41 minutes ago, rgeek said:

Sure. But thinking that Britain resides in glorious isolation is a bit nieve. Doing deals takes muscle, timing and compromise.

Didn't mean to sound nieve.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.urbandictionary.com/define.php%3fterm=Nieve&amp=true

Apparently 'nieve' can also mean 'a closed fist' in Scottish-speak or  a type of snowflake in Spanish.

...ironic spellcheck or Freudian slip?...either way enjoying the discussion here...

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2 hours ago, rgeek said:

The UK doesn't use the euro. It's shakled to Europe by geography and can't just wish that away. 

wink, nudge ... Monty Python, the Crimson insurance ... raise the anchor and sail off to raid the corporate world on yonder shores until you drop off the cliff ;-)

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9 hours ago, LeoV said:

Among the plans being considered is cutting corporation tax and VAT to encourage more business investment, according to the paper.(Liberal, free trade etc)

Don't see how the VAT rate has anything to do with business investment. All except the smallest of businesses can reclaim VAT.

Cutting corporation tax is a fine idea but not in tune with these populist times.

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9 minutes ago, dogwatch said:

Don't see how the VAT rate has anything to do with business investment. All except the smallest of businesses can reclaim VAT.

I can only think of VAT lower rate can lead to more spending as goods gets cheaper, they know goods will be more expensive.

Sarcasm mode on;
But as the UK as a deficit on their account and deep reserves and no depths, they have a lot of cash hidden in castles to prep up their national budget of 850 billion, and the 5 billion saved by not paying the EU does wonders. And they can plan austerity politics to save money.
Mode off

Did the UK handle any crises in an effective and quick way ?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/09/william-keegan-nine-british-financial-crises-since-1967

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That's a pretty tendentious left-wing blinkered view of history and you can hardly say that the picture for most EU economies has been a happy one since the GFC. Despite self-inflicted damage, the UK economy is growing and has the closest to full employment seen since the early 1970s. That is why large numbers from the rest of the EU come here to live and work, which was one of the causes of the Leave vote. 

 

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Can see that Dogwatch, thanks, but it pointed to a crises were a theory was followed (Friedman) that was later proved wrong. I am afraid something like that is happening now.

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4 hours ago, dogwatch said:

That's a pretty tendentious left-wing blinkered view of history and you can hardly say that the picture for most EU economies has been a happy one since the GFC. Despite self-inflicted damage, the UK economy is growing and has the closest to full employment seen since the early 1970s. That is why large numbers from the rest of the EU come here to live and work, which was one of the causes of the Leave vote. 

 

The UK is doing well (and much better than France) now but pre-EU the UK economy was really poor and it took a very long time to get better. I remember in the mid 80s traveling to the UK from France and having the impression to land in a poorer country. Just 15 years after in the late 90s I was taking the ferry to the UK to work there and definitely feeling that the fortunes of the 2 countries had changed.

I can understand that some feel that too many Europeans are living in the UK (sorry mates but we love you so much that we "take" your jobs) but economically especially since the Blair years the country has benefited hugely from being in the EU.

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^

I agree and the majority of those involved in high-skills areas of the economy would agree too.  The leave vote came, predominantly, from the "left behind". I hear the howl of pain but  nevertheless find it hard to sympathise with those who have committed an act of self-harm. 

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Made the mistake to look this morning at the discussion about Brexit from a group of people helping a small export company;
The said one article was telling why the NI border is such a problem and will decide the effect on future trade, so my morning read became serious in a minute.
It is worthwhile to mention I think;
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0208/1028467-brexit-tony-connelly/

Again, we’re back at the fundamental dilemma. As the world’s fifth biggest economy, Britain is struggling to reconcile the need for high alignment (to protect the Irish border), with the desire for freedom to negotiate its own trade deals around the world.
Yet, so far the EU has resisted the idea that there can be two regulatory spheres side by side that are similar but not identical, with an ambiguous degree of monitoring, compliance and enforcement.
A fundamental red line for Brussels has been that it maintains "regulatory autonomy", i.e. it makes its own rules for its own internal market.
But London continues to challenge this on the basis that the UK is too big an economy to be subservient to the EU’s regulatory orbit.
The UK and the EU should be able to set "a totally new gold standard on how you do international regulatory cooperation," according to one official.

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12 minutes ago, rgeek said:

Free access but lower regulatory standards? Hmmmmmmm

And, we want to leave the EU free trade zone, but need to keep it for NI for curtain sectors, goods.
High alignment with bits of the single market, and on other bits go independent.
That was picking cherries.

That article is a write up of a podcast, where there is more talk about the food and drinks sector.
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0208/1028454-brexit-republic-episode-twenty-six/

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Looks like the NI problem is now in the spotlight, but without the NI problem, there would be the same kind of disagreement. The NI border just makes it more complicated.

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13 hours ago, dogwatch said:

Despite self-inflicted damage, the UK economy is growing and has the closest to full employment seen since the early 1970s.

UK manufacturing has been going at full chat - certainly the last 2 years - to manufacture products to mitigate the effects of the door closing on the 29th March. Businesses with a footprint in the EU have pre-manufactured a lot of stuff to export and stockpile so they can supply their EU clients without too much hassle. Equally a lot of gear has been imported to keep those businesses going locally.  That includes cottage industries right up to car manufacturing.

Since nobody has a clue what actually is going to happen and with the uncertainty that businesses are now faced with - if the door does slam shut, a significant drop in manufacturing is expected.  I think that was what Mark Carney was hinting at a few days ago.

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1 minute ago, Laser1 said:

UK manufacturing has been going at full chat - certainly the last 2 years - to manufacture products to mitigate the effects of the door closing on the 29th March.

But before that it was not performing too badly I think ?
More manufacturing pre Brexit absolutely, I know for sure that one Chesterfield style furniture importer to the EU here in the Netherlands ordered a year in advance, and had to finance that, as he used small companies who could not upfront the costs. And expects not to order anything for a year to come. Big exporters will survive no problem, small medium ones can really be hurt.

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We will likely continue to have our boards assembled in the UK. Our supplier has stock piled a year of parts as suggested. Short terms there's a benefit from GBP dropping. Long term it doesn't really matter as component prices arent fixed to GBP. The reasonable expectation would be that the UK labour cost component will drop.

The only thing that will effect that will be increased customs friction, but we're contracted for a landed price in Ireland.

Thankfully tariffs on marine electronic are zero anyway.

We'll have to see what the impact in international payments will be. It may be that more business has to be handled financially out side of the UK. We'll see.

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16 hours ago, dogwatch said:

Don't see how the VAT rate has anything to do with business investment. All except the smallest of businesses can reclaim VAT.

Cutting corporation tax is a fine idea but not in tune with these populist times.

you can only offset vat, sales to purchases in the UK you cant claim it all back.
If you have a business that doesnt have huge input versus sales with vat applied you lose, its like a turnover tax

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It isn't  like a turnover tax. You charge it to your customers. You don't lose. If your clients are also businesses, they just claim it back in turn.

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according to the Beeb, the May-bot to ask more delay, proposes to present new deal by end of this month ... rumours have it that after her stint as PM she's going into scriptwriting for soaps, specialising in cliffhangers

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1 minute ago, Albatros said:

according to the Beeb, the May-bot to ask more delay, proposes to present new deal by end of this month ... rumours have it that after her stint as PM she's going into scriptwriting for soaps, specialising in cliffhangers

Quite possibly written in a little cottage in the Alps, or elsewhere in Europe as well. 

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29 minutes ago, mad said:

Quite possibly written in a little cottage in the Alps, or elsewhere in Europe as well. 

Cornwall has a few unused tin mines, 300 ft down deep enuf? 

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2 hours ago, Laser1 said:

Cornwall has a few unused tin mines, 300 ft down deep enuf? 

We could send them down there by the bus load.  

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11 hours ago, Sailabout said:

you can only offset vat, sales to purchases in the UK you cant claim it all back.
If you have a business that doesnt have huge input versus sales with vat applied you lose, its like a turnover tax

It's quite nice to have a business that deoen't have a huge input versus sales. It basically means that your turn over is pure profit!

VAT isn't a turnover tax, as the name implies it only taxes the added value. If you don't make a profit it should be neutral.

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1 hour ago, Panoramix said:

It's quite nice to have a business that deoen't have a huge input versus sales. It basically means that your turn over is pure profit!

VAT isn't a turnover tax, as the name implies it only taxes the added value. If you don't make a profit it should be neutral.

it has nothing to do with profit

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2 hours ago, Panoramix said:

It's quite nice to have a business that deoen't have a huge input versus sales. It basically means that your turn over is pure profit!

VAT isn't a turnover tax, as the name implies it only taxes the added value. If you don't make a profit it should be neutral.

Software biz. I pay a lot of GST (actually my clients pay, I just hold/pass it on). I'm delighted to do so. As you say, low input costs so low offsetting GST amounts, mainly travel/accommodation and new toys err essential electronic devices.

FKT

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Not unexpectedly May has put Corbyn's 5 point letter in the shredder. Was never going to fly with customs union.

That rejection I assume Corbyn now uses to underpin a push for a general election. However not sure many MP's have an appetite for that with a result far from certain. Many would much prefer the alternative of a second referendum I suspect. However is that a sure thing? I realise polls from last year had more Britons wanting to remain a member of the EU than leave. I wonder if that is still the case?

 https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-latest-theresa-may-responds-to-jeremy-corbyns-demands-by-outlining-her-confusion-but-desire-a4062796.html

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Italy is looking to be a real spoiler with its stoush with France over immigration. Now its threating the EU united front by wanting to strike some sort of bilateral deal with UK. Can't see how they think they can do trade deals outside the EU. Maybe just rhetoric for local consumption.

https%3A%2F%2Fwww.express.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fworld%2F1085392%2Fbrexit-news-latest-no-deal-brexit-italy-trade-deal-bilateral-deal&psig=AOvVaw3gUbeJveKA5esijKSbt7mf&ust=1549962457475317

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A. It is the Express, which used to have a world renowned reputation for journalism sadly flushed down the crapper.

B. The Italians will, as always, make a lot of noise, before remembering that they might suffer considerably more without EU special aid to industries and sectors impacted by a hard Brexit.

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11 minutes ago, cms said:

It is the Express, which used to have a world renowned reputation for journalism sadly flushed down the crapper.

Yeah price you pay for most that are not pay walled. 

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We are bloody lucky here to have a rag like Ouest France which, despite being famous for cockups with wrong photos, spelling names etc is owned by a non political humanitarian foundation. I actually bother to read many editorials.... Having grown up with DC Thomson, Sunday Post et al, it is a pleasant experience. I do miss Oor Wullie the Broons and of course the Beano....

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Yep, May went full for the CP not a consensus. Wonder when it will stop, before or after 29 March ...
May accepted a customs union could potentially have delivered her a Commons majority but at the serious risk of splitting her party.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/10/brexit-mps-will-have-another-say-by-end-of-month-says-minister

And market wise;

Today’s growth report is expected show that businesses reined in their spending, as they nervously watch the Brexit negotiations play out.

Paul Donovan of UBS Wealth Management suspects consumers will be less perturbed (plus, any Brexit panic stockpiling will boost GDP):
The UK is doing a data dump – production, trade and GDP numbers are all due. The economy may have slowed slightly in the fourth quarter. Overall consumers are resilient in the face of political nonsense, by taking the sensible approach of not caring. Companies are, however, inclined to delay investment.
----------------
Though customers have stopped buying big ticket items... but to call it political nonsense... almost funny.

 

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10 hours ago, Panoramix said:

It's quite nice to have a business that deoen't have a huge input versus sales. It basically means that your turn over is pure profit!

VAT isn't a turnover tax, as the name implies it only taxes the added value. If you don't make a profit it should be neutral.

If you're not making a profit, VAT is the least of your worries. 

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This "Italian" position is not the position of Italy, just one extreme politician. Macron has blown it up by his excessive response, exactly what the publicity seeking Italian wanted, but this is a non-event in the context of the EU or Brexit. The Express is just trying to sell papers.

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And the defence secretary has some plans;
At at event where Gavin Williamson has just announced a £7m investment in drones 'capable of overwhelming and confusing enemy air defences'. After our successes at Gatwick, what could possibly go wrong?

 

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2 hours ago, hump101 said:

This "Italian" position is not the position of Italy, just one extreme politician. Macron has blown it up by his excessive response, exactly what the publicity seeking Italian wanted, but this is a non-event in the context of the EU or Brexit. The Express is just trying to sell papers.

This. Haven’t found any echo in the Italian press. Aside from theatrics - note nobody’s messing with the Germans - Italians know very well their bread’s buttered on the EU side

As an aside on Italian politics, the main local victim of the global populist tsunami has been the center-left, which self-destructed ignominiously. The bubble of the purely populist 5 Star party is predictably bursting against the reality of governing in a coalition with a much more professional ally. A new vote is most likely together with or immediately after the European elections, resulting in a traditional center-right government 

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And the EU did his best to write down what the EU UK Withdrawel agreement is in more plain terms, maybe to entice MP's to read it ?
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement-explained_en

Or an explanation with cricket about the backstop;
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/can-cricket-explain-the-backstop-1.3778684

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5 hours ago, hump101 said:

This "Italian" position is not the position of Italy, just one extreme politician. Macron has blown it up by his excessive response, exactly what the publicity seeking Italian wanted, but this is a non-event in the context of the EU or Brexit. The Express is just trying to sell papers.

Ah the Italians, and their government(s). How many have they had since 1945?

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4 minutes ago, cms said:

Ah the Italians, and their government(s). How many have they had since 1945?

unofficially ( but reality) it was Andreotti from WWII till Berlusconi, the other story is just for the punters to feel good

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3 hours ago, LeoV said:

And the EU did his best to write down what the EU UK Withdrawel agreement is in more plain terms, maybe to entice MP's to read it ?
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement-explained_en

 

Can anyone here, who favors a "No Deal Brexit"  please explain to us, factually, what is so wrong with the backstop.  It seems a pretty sensible solution to me. It is not expected to be used but if it becomes necessary it seems to me to be the only sensible backstop. 

All the ERG politicians who are tearing their hair out about the backstop with meaningless slogans have failed to propose an alternative.

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Isn't just the potentially open ended nature  of the Backstop that the UK can't unilaterally bring to an end that has Leavers concerned?

That said they don't seem to have any alternative to a hard border other than pray the EU won't insist on one.

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1 hour ago, Mambo Kings said:

Can anyone here, who favors a "No Deal Brexit"  please explain to us, factually, what is so wrong with the backstop.  It seems a pretty sensible solution to me. It is not expected to be used but if it becomes necessary it seems to me to be the only sensible backstop. 

All the ERG politicians who are tearing their hair out about the backstop with meaningless slogans have failed to propose an alternative.

I’ve yet to hear a cognisant point of view or argument from anyone, which leads me to believe there isn’t one. 

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Potential amendment being floated whereby non extreme remain and leave MPs vote through May's deal against a binding commitment to a referendum including remain as an option, based on the EU agreeing a delay of 3 months to allow this to happen.

Whilst it sounds nice, and may well appeal to some, it would need official backing from the Tories to get a majority methinks, and will that petty party feel this is a route they wish to follow?

Discuss.

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2 hours ago, Mambo Kings said:

Can anyone here, who favors a "No Deal Brexit"  please explain to us, factually, what is so wrong with the backstop.  It seems a pretty sensible solution to me. It is not expected to be used but if it becomes necessary it seems to me to be the only sensible backstop. 

All the ERG politicians who are tearing their hair out about the backstop with meaningless slogans have failed to propose an alternative.

It's Northern Ireland, so facts may be less important than emotions.

The backstop treats Northern Ireland differently than England, Scotland and Wales.  It establishes the possibility that there would be an open border between Northern Ireland and Eire, but a hard border between Ireland and Great Britain.  That could look like a big first step towards abandonment and forced reunification, and feel like a sellout.

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