Meat Wad

Brexit, WTF

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Not too sure about that. Many have already invested a lot of time and resources in preperation for Brexit at industry and government levels . The general consensus is a trip into the unknown and don't alter current trade agreement agendas, particularly those with the EU. The UK is dreaming if they think the world incl previous partners pre the EU are going to drop their pants and come running.

problem is what have they prepared for?

EEA countries seem to have free trade but they pay a fee to the EU for that

How about Switzerland, in no mans land but seems to survive

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52 minutes ago, Sailabout said:

problem is what have they prepared for?

Those I have read would ordinarily be a quick read. However with all the "what ifs" they go forever.

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7 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

It is assumed the UK would inherit the EU’s bound tariffs. However what is the reaction to trading partners when that same tarriff applies yet with no benefit of free circulation within the EU?

 

6 hours ago, Expatriated said:

One of the many screw up with the BREXIT negotiations is that the UK should have started negotiating trade deals immediately and if the EU complained told them to take a hike. Clearly the deals could not come into effect unless and until BREXIT but the whole approach was dumb beyond belief.

The UK has already made a submission to the WTO expecting approval of the existing EU tariffs to apply to the UK post Brexit. This requires unanimous approval by all WTO members, and was immediately rejected by Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, and others, for the reasons Jack notes.

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6 hours ago, Expatriated said:

When given a vote the French people voted NO and the EU brought in constitution as a treaty and the french didn't get a vote; does Non mean Qui?

Didn't the Irish have to vote twice to get the richt result on the Lisbon treaty?

Exactly, this is completely normal and to be expected, because no country is going to get its full shopping list from any international treaty. Go and ask the French or Irish if they want to leave the EU because they are bound by treaties that they have previously rejected. No, they don't want to leave because most people have an understanding that everything in life requires compromise. The Brits have decided that they don't like the compromise they perceived they were getting, but did they actually know what they were getting?

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Right'o ... there we go .... vote of no-confidence in Mrs. May so in 12 hrs. time the soap opera may not have a Prime Minister.

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1 hour ago, hump101 said:

 

The UK has already made a submission to the WTO expecting approval of the existing EU tariffs to apply to the UK post Brexit. This requires unanimous approval by all WTO members, and was immediately rejected by Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, and others, for the reasons Jack notes.

Hump you are on the money.

It would seem the entitled like Boris and Rees Mogg regard Commonwealth countries as their own when doing their economic impact assessments of Brexit and joining the non EU world. It is like they are channelling Captain Cook.

These two silly fuckwits being just two pro Brexit examples were in Primary School when the UK joined the EU in the early 70's and ripped the rug out from underneath the economy's of some loyal Commonwealth countries who by the way were doing it tough at the time with localised financial/credit/inflation issues plus the 1970's oil crisis.

While it might have been 45 years ago memories run deep. The irony is while the EU elected back then to go the EU safety blanket, some of those Commonwealth countries were forced into the global economy, deregulated their financial frameworks and overnight started learning Chinese not German or French etc. The proof of their success at doing that is some like Aust & NZ barely felt the GFC 35 years later.

I acknowledge lies are told by the bucketful from both sides of the Brexit fence but I struggle finding two bigger liers than Boris the front man and Rees Mogg writing his lines. 

The concept they are promoting to a guy grazing fat lambs in Dorset (who currently has 50% of his income subsidised by the EU) or someone making Airbus wings in Wales (Airbus wouldn't be there save for the EU), or someone making Toyotas in Derbyshire where via the European trucking supply line between him working and not working is less than one days disruption, is that the UK is better off with Brexit.

That nonsence is all premised solely on the fact these two dingbats are telling these three people that the world incl previous partners pre the EU are going to drop their pants and come running to save the three of them and put their own livelihood at risk. WTF.

Wake up UK you are being conned by two Carnys with aspirations of being King who just happen to wear suits and don't have tattoos.

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5 hours ago, Christian said:

Don't get me wrong - I personally think Brexit is an incredibly stupid idea.  However, as a Dane living in the US I have absolutely no right to try to influence that decision - that is up to the brits.  I can just hope they get their act together and reconsider Brexit - I would hate to see the klusterfuck that would be a post-Brexit UK

???

You just did try to influence that decision.

I recognize that no one but the Brits have the right to make the decision, but that doesn't mean I can't be standing on the sidelines screaming "DON'T DO IT!" 

Given that I am an American, the Brits will likely dismiss anything I say on the matter.

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16 hours ago, Expatriated said:

That's pretty condescending Mad. We have a large problem across many Western countries with the arrogance of those in power leading to the Trumps, Le Pens, Five Star movement et al.

I'm not sure which way I would have voted in the referendum if I had still been living in the UK. Demonising those who voted to leave as all racist and ignorant is just living in a bubble.

 

Where did I say any of that? 

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10 hours ago, Expatriated said:

Since you are from the Netherlands what is your opinion of the rejected in a Dutch referendum EU constitution coming back hardly modified as the Lisbon treaty? 

That is easy, it was a referendum with an advice, not a binding one. Many understood that and did not vote for it, mostly who were not against it. So if you were against, you went to vote no, if you were in favour, you stayed home or did vote no. So the numbers were not representative of the peoples vote from the start. I was pro and stayed home, as I am against referenda with a simple yes or no on big items, and hoped that it would get below the 60 % voters needed to make it pass.. And many voted not because of what was in the laws, but like in the UK to stick up a finger, disgruntled people. Many did not even know what was in it.
And again you are confusing country politics with Eu politics. It were the national governments playing with this, not the EU. to call the EU dictators because of this is ridiculous.
But you have a different view, so be it.

 

8 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

That is a good example why people are confused. What you say there is the exact  opposite to what the pro Brexits like Boris and Rees Mogg are preaching.  Their mantra is free trade post-Brexit with all sorts of deals to be done with nations outside of the EU away from EU regulations.

Yeah, could have written it better; Strong points UK in EU, free movement of products and finances,  Should be free movement inside the EU :)

Nobody can really tell how it will work out in the future, but looking at trade numbers for the UK, you do agree with the Eu and his regulations, or you agree with the US regulation. So much for going your own way. And if you agree with the US regulation and import lots of US stuff, for instance meats, some meats ( chlorine chickens) are not allowed in the EU, so the Eu has to check every piece of meat coming out of the UK to see if it has not parts of that US meat in it, think sausages, pies. And as the UK does not label it mentioning it is US based chicken, and why would they, non is allowed in the EU.

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/chlorine-washed-chicken-qa-food-safety-expert-explains-why-us-poultry-is-banned-in-the-eu-a7875131.html

So it can be that free trade with the rest of the world will ban the UK from doing business in some areas in the EU. In this case anything with chicken, not allowed in.
And there are EU products that are not allowed into the US too. Like Kinder Eggs.
How big that problem is, I can not fathom, maybe small, maybe big.

And then we have the service industry, EU is the biggest client, and then the US, which is growing. To grow more in the US they need to level their regulation. And that drives it away from the EU.

It is al very complicated, and it is brave to try it, but will it be work out so that the UK people will be happy  in 10 years or so ? We do not know.

 

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8 hours ago, Expatriated said:

One of the many screw up with the BREXIT negotiations is that the UK should have started negotiating trade deals immediately and if the EU complained told them to take a hike. Clearly the deals could not come into effect unless and until BREXIT but the whole approach was dumb beyond belief.

Agree 100 %, the red lines  set up years ago would have been the baseline, negotiate one year, then one year of implementation. As the EU can not force the UK to do that, this you can only blame on UK internal politics.

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9 hours ago, Sailabout said:

France doing better now ( not), here it was a few years ago

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2269938/France-totally-bankrupt-jobs-minister-admits-concerns-grow-Hollandes-tax-spend-policies.html

fuel will be free soon and wages going up, sounds like a socialist fix

Since one of your earlier links was to a site whose editor believed in chemtrails, some of us may find your links less than convincing. 

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10 hours ago, Expatriated said:

The relationship with the commonwealth was badly damaged, the fishing industry almost destroyed, a lot of cash on a one-way street, lots & lots of rules...there have been many benefits to membership.

Research Fishing, I have done, look at before the EU, the cod wars, and who gave away the UK fishing quota to 3 big companies, one you can almost call Dutch.
The deal with Norway and Iceland, the fact that fish is migratory, so who owns them is difficult to say. Lets just fish them before they reach UK waters, they will be smaller, but hey, who cares, not the fishers, they need to make money and were doing that in the past before EU law did forbid that, with quota and acces to the ground were they were the fattest.
Do not blame the EU for internal UK politics. The relationship with the common wealth, went sour before there was even an EEC.
Lots of rules... your UK representative in the EU voted for 98% of the rules, because they made sense and otherwise the UK would have to make its own rules that look similar.
They will have to do so with a Brexit, and boy, that is a lot of work.

Come on, yo can do better then this kind of "facts" that are not different in the point of being inside or outside the EU.

Go back to the 3 basics, Free movement of goods and services, people and justice inside the EU.
I can see that you can have a problem with movement of people inside the EU.
And justice, but do not forget that the whole Non EU immigrants rules are dictated by treaties with the UN, like right for asylum, which the UK underwrote too when they were independent. Though Hungary etc is making a case of its own on that.

There is enough in the EU to not agree on then to make up facts.

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May, I did bet that she has enough support in the CP to hold on. Eleven hours to go.

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On 12/11/2018 at 10:02 AM, jack_sparrow said:

He doesn't a rat's arse about say a Airbus factory in Wales post Brexit over say Boeing and Co.

Jack, not a dig but just to update you on the above quote : I believe that Bombardier (Belfast) was going to get short changed by the orange clown.

Belfast losing 1000's of jobs would have been catastrophic for the area on top of the brexshit uncertainties.

https://uk.bombardier.com/en/aerospace/presence-in-country/services.html

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-42825916

With regard to brexshit the UK Airbus parts facilities will have issues with the threat of stopping the free unhindered flow of goods between their UK and continental plants. As does the car manufacturing industry.

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59 minutes ago, captain_crunch said:

I recognize that no one but SOME OF the Brits have the right to make the decision, but that doesn't mean I can't be standing on the sidelines screaming "DON'T DO IT!" 

Given that I am an American, the Brits will likely dismiss anything I say on the matter.

Just adding a minor correction to your post. I didn't get a vote, despite being British, paying UK tax and NI, and arguing for 3 months with the electoral officer. There are many more Brits in my position, and we are a group that is disproportionately affected by the decision. The way the Gibralteans voted is probably indicative of how this group would have voted.

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35 minutes ago, LeoV said:

May, I did bet that she has enough support in the CP to hold on. Eleven hours to go.

Yep. She ain't going anywhere knowing the empty vessels making the most noise haven't got the balls to step up. Sort of ironic.

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48 letters to the 1922 committee are a long way short of the 157? ish (50%)  required to remove her.. though there will be more coming out of the woodwork..

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The pulling of the vote has lost her support from both sides of the debate. It would not surprise me to find that some remain-supporting MP's have submitted letters, as a remain-supporting leader will have more support in the party than a hard line leaver, just as it was when May was elected.

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So can you submit a letter and then vote for May to stay ? Is the 122 letter confidential ?

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33 minutes ago, The Q said:

48 letters to the 1922 committee are a long way short of the 157? ish (50%)  required to remove her..

Yep under party rules, just a contest is triggered if 15% of Conservative MPs write to the chair of the committee of Tory backbenchers. As you say 157 or 50% then to topple her. So 48 largely anonymous cunts who are essentialy unemployable in the outside world, want to both change the world and be UK top dog.

The Tower of London can easilly fit 48.

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14 minutes ago, LeoV said:

So can you submit a letter and then vote for May to stay ? Is the 122 letter confidential ?

The no confidence ballot is confidential, the letters calling for the ballot are not. So no link between the two. 

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Looking into it, the vote is confidential. So you can submit a letter and then vote to let her  stay without anyone knowing. But you will be a marked person for writing the letter if that one is not confidential. But that is political game playing, not familiar to that to understand reasons to do so.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46237174

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1 hour ago, LeoV said:

Looking into it, the vote is confidential. So you can submit a letter and then vote to let her  stay without anyone knowing. But you will be a marked person for writing the letter if that one is not confidential. But that is political game playing, not familiar to that to understand reasons to do so.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46237174

Game playing is a kind word.

Rees Mogg who fancies himself as the kingmaker is along with around half of the 48 who have gone public. Yet not one Tory right wing aspirant for Mays job like Boris Johnson, David Davis, Dominic Raab and Esther McVey, who all quit their positions over Brexit, plus Penny Mordaunt who is regarded as a contender, yet still remains International Development Secretary, don't put their heads above the parapet.

Unemployable swill jostling at the public  trough for the top job under the cover of darkness.

Not widely appreciated is if there are several candidates, the candidate with the fewest votes is removed and MPs will vote again, and so on, until only two candidates remain.

These two candidates are then put to a postal ballot of the wider Conservative Party membership. Participants need to have been party members for more than three months. In the past this prospect has been avoided by one of the last two standing dropping out.

Wish they would all drop dead.

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We need Guy Fawkes to rise from the grave. 

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40 minutes ago, mad said:

We need Guy Fawkes to rise from the grave. 

Fat lot of good he was.  We need Maggie.

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1 minute ago, Mambo Kings said:

Fat lot of good he was.  We need Maggie.

I’d be willing to let him have another go. :P

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Just now, mad said:

I’d be willing to let him have another go. :P

True , and the world has gotten better at blowing stuff up since then.

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38 minutes ago, mad said:

I’d be willing to let him have another go. :P

Absolutely, the chances of him fucking it up twice in a row is pretty slim.

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38 minutes ago, Mambo Kings said:

True , and the world has gotten better at blowing stuff up since then.

How would you propose getting "little boy" past security?? yeah its a "blowfish" sculpture for the parliamentary lunch room?

images (85).jpeg

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8 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

How would you propose getting "little boy" past security?? yeah its a "blowfish" sculpture for the parliamentary lunch room?

images (85).jpeg

Thankfully Semtex is easier to move around. :ph34r:

 

 

 

 

 

why’s there a black helicopter hovering overhead? :lol:

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On 12/10/2018 at 3:48 PM, captain_crunch said:

March 29 is fast approaching.  How close to the brink will they come before they bailout?

 

Chicken Run is a good analogy. My kids have seen Thelma and Louise so I used that as an analogy for them. Everyone agrees that going straight off the cliff – no deal Brexit – is the worst choice and turning one way (negotiated Brexit) or the other (revoke article 50) is better/less bad than continuing towards the abyss.

Theresa May by delaying the vote has loosened the steering wheel – making it very hard/impossible to have time to lose the vote, run a referendum and chose to revoke article 50. Now the 1922 committee are like kids in the back seat reaching forward and pulling the steering wheel off ...

While the rest of us are saying you got to do something...and running after the car, helplessly watching it pull away...

And yes over coffee this morning we discussed the benefits of resurrecting Guy Fawkes

hatched-the-plot-in-a-pub-photo-u1?w=650

 

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Rees Mogg who fancies himself as the kingmaker is along with around half of the 48 who have gone public. Yet not one Tory right wing aspirant for Mays job like Boris Johnson, David Davis, Dominic Raab and Esther McVey, who all quit their positions over Brexit, plus Penny Mordaunt who is regarded as a contender, yet still remains International Development Secretary, don't put their heads above the parapet.

And there are a few other 'see you next Tuesdays' that were shouting hardest 2 years ago and are now looking after themselves : Ian Duncan Smith and that turd Michael Gove ..........  yuk!!

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Fishing is a perfect example of many things Brexit. All the headlines say the EU stole our fish, our quotas, our rights, destroyed our fishing communities and forced us to scrap hundreds of boats. Mostly bollocks of course, but never expect a fisherman not to defend his patch.

The UK government decided the policies which handed our quotas to a small number of large operators, some of whom sold their quotas to the Spanish, Dutch etc, or leased them out. All for profit. No investment, no jobs, no future for UK fishing ports or families. Almost no support was given to smaller boats, to inshore fishing, to any other than the big, wealthy and politically influential.

Look a mere 30 odd miles north (and a little east) of my home in the Ness of Shetland. Look at Whalsay at Symbister. Google them and "black fish scandal". All the boats listed below are owned by Whalsay millionaires (more of them on the island, per population, then anywhere else in UK). They are all 70m +

Zephyr 1996, new build being delivered 2019
Atlantic II 2004
Altaire 2004
Adenia 2003, new build being delivered 2019
Antares 2016
Charisma 200?, new build being delivered 2019
Research 2018
Serene 2018

Look up the new build cost of these 75-82m boats.

Research recently landed (in Norway) mackerel to a market value of 10 million Euros in under 2 weeks.

So, cry for the poor British fishermen and their families, starving because of the nasty EU.

And, of course, they always know better than the scientists about stocks and sustainability. Yes, sometimes the scientists are too cautious, or too blinkered, but not always!

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14 hours ago, Sailabout said:

problem is what have they prepared for?

EEA countries seem to have free trade but they pay a fee to the EU for that

How about Switzerland, in no mans land but seems to survive

Not that it matters, but Switzerland has a series of agreements with the EU.  Switzerland has access to the EU markets, but also allows free movement of EU citizens.  One of my Greek relations is working in Switzerland.

 

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

200 votes for the Prime Minister, and 117 against. 

In the world according to Rees Mogg that means: 40 or 50 people are on the payroll of the PM in one shape or another so they voted for their boss and to keep their jobs. That leaves 150 true supporters with 117 not-so-supportive.  Ergo she has no power whatsoever to govern the country.

New episodes for the soap opera have just been released.

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On 12/6/2018 at 8:33 PM, AnotherSailor said:

I think the point is that because of Brexit border regulations and the allowed time to stay in Europe is going to be impacted. Both recreational sailors (cruisers) and racers will have to deal with this. The Brits are really royally fucking themselves in the rear: economically this is not making any sense, and lots of folks are leaving with their companies. It has all kinds of ramifications for all parts of life, including sports. Likewise universities are scrambling to avoid losing millions in grants and many researchers have already left.

At least they still have Ben Ainslie.

 

On 12/6/2018 at 10:12 PM, Wet Spreaders said:

"No taxation without representation" should be a reasonably familiar rallying cry to most Americans.

The bottom line with Brexit is that the EU is a non-democratic body that sets rules that folks have to live by, but have no say in creating. If you doubt me, pick any rule you like and figure out who you might vote for to support it, or oppose it. If you can't identify a representative that you can directly impact with your vote, then you are not living in a democracy. 

The EU is a benign dictatorship designed with the sole purpose of stopping Germans taking panzer rides to France via Belgium. The reason that the Europeans are so hysterical and want to "punish" the Brits for leaving is because they equate weakening the EU with an existential threat to peace in Europe. That same reason is why they have given up their own sovereignty to an unelected bureaucracy - it keeps the people well away from making stupid decisions, like cheering-on genocidal loonies gassing 6M people or invading Russia in autumn without food or warm boots. Or shooting old ladies from rooftops in Srebenica or rounding up thousands of fighting age men and shooting them in the back of the head in the forest or......

Brits have their own dis-functional governmental system that stops them doing shitty things to everyone except the Irish. They don't need to pay for an unelected Frenchman, a dithering Dutchman and a monstrous mobile cadre of grey-men who's average location is somewhere between Strasbourg and Brussels.

 

All that - and I'm actually a "remainer". Scooter doesn't know shit either - Brexit is not racist, it's perceived self interest. 

OK, I've been busy and not checked back in. So I'll respond to the first 2 posts.
I had no idea this would be such a hot topic.

First, I do not give a shit about Britain, notice I did not mention Great Britain. Why the F does the world of sailing care about the Brits? Douche bags all
I have no Idea. Sailing is an International Sport and thus needs to be governed as such.

Britain or England as some call it. Needs to bow out....gracefully. They are the problem.

I'm here in SO Cal sitting on the PHRF Regional Board and yes, we are dealing with the BS dealt forth by the International Governing bodies and Rating rules.

HOW the F are we supposed to rate boats that are optimized to international rules and implement local ratings?
Where are the guidelines from the International and National Ruling bodies.................................now where to be found.


The whole system is totally fucked up and will blow up, and the Olympics will go way for sailing......................god I hope so

Thanks to Britain. GOD FUCK THE QUEEN, she aint no human being.........................Sex Pistols said that.

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19 hours ago, hump101 said:

Exactly, this is completely normal and to be expected, because no country is going to get its full shopping list from any international treaty. Go and ask the French or Irish if they want to leave the EU because they are bound by treaties that they have previously rejected. No, they don't want to leave because most people have an understanding that everything in life requires compromise. The Brits have decided that they don't like the compromise they perceived they were getting, but did they actually know what they were getting?

Sorry but I can't agree. There is a refendum that the voters reject and then the same agreement is accepted without a further referendum? This is not good governance. Why di9d France bother having the first referendum?

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17 hours ago, mad said:

Where did I say any of that? 

"two weeks in Benidorm" - I lived in Paris, Geneva and Amsterdam and am not sure which way I would have voted if I still lived in Europe.

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The only way I can see the UK avoiding a complete cluster f*ck is to cancel the 3/29 BREXIT and have another referendum and if that votes for BREXIT again start negotiating all over again.

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17 hours ago, LeoV said:

Research Fishing, I have done, look at before the EU, the cod wars, and who gave away the UK fishing quota to 3 big companies, one you can almost call Dutch.
The deal with Norway and Iceland, the fact that fish is migratory, so who owns them is difficult to say. Lets just fish them before they reach UK waters, they will be smaller, but hey, who cares, not the fishers, they need to make money and were doing that in the past before EU law did forbid that, with quota and acces to the ground were they were the fattest.
Do not blame the EU for internal UK politics. The relationship with the common wealth, went sour before there was even an EEC.
Lots of rules... your UK representative in the EU voted for 98% of the rules, because they made sense and otherwise the UK would have to make its own rules that look similar.
They will have to do so with a Brexit, and boy, that is a lot of work.

Come on, yo can do better then this kind of "facts" that are not different in the point of being inside or outside the EU.

Go back to the 3 basics, Free movement of goods and services, people and justice inside the EU.
I can see that you can have a problem with movement of people inside the EU.
And justice, but do not forget that the whole Non EU immigrants rules are dictated by treaties with the UN, like right for asylum, which the UK underwrote too when they were independent. Though Hungary etc is making a case of its own on that.

There is enough in the EU to not agree on then to make up facts.

The EEC rushed the Common Fisheries policy into effect just before the UK joined back in the 1970's. Look it up. 

The EU immigration problem is primarily related to welfare benefits. In France - and I believe most of Europe - you have to pay some form of national insurance before benefits can be claimed whereas in the UK these can be claimed immediately. EU rules require all EU nationals to be treated as locals - a bit of creative rule making within the UK could have resolved this but competence from the British civil service and politicians was lost decades ago...

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5 hours ago, Laser1 said:

New episodes for the soap opera have just been released.

There are some changes to the script that open up some interesting scenarios. For instance May has confirmed she won't contest the next election. You then combine that with episodes already broadcast.

The Irish who the Tories rely on to govern won't accept anything other than a soft Brexit and not the one on the table. Before even factoring in the disident Tory right wing who think it too soft and willing to cross the floor that makes the currrent deal or even with modification doomed.

Now the Labour Party make it weird. Corbyn campaigned during the referendum to remain in the EU as did the Tories but didn't join with Cameron and was critised internally about that, to the extent they tried to get rid of him. Like the Tories they accepted the referendum outcome and the wheels started turning.

However at their recent conference it was resolved that if May failed to get Brexit across the line they would leave the option of a People Vote on the table, but making no comittment. However some already calling for it now contry to policy. The Labour party is therefore as split as the Tories are on Brexit, no Brexit and the prospect of a People's vote.

It is clear the push for a People's Vote has legs on account the Brexit outcomes are now far more clear than was known at the time of the referendum. However with both parties so split how is a People Vote going to introduce anything different than now assuming it will probably be again be close to a 50/50 outcome.

The Tories are a minority government relying on the Irish to govern and whose support for anything other than a soft or no Brexit will see that support evaporate.

Seems to me the best bet for themselves and the country is adopt a simple "No Brexit" platform consistent with the majority party view, call a snap election at some point in time when everyone is exhausted, May steps down as promised, and they go to that election with a new leader. That finishes the aspirations of Boris and Co once and for all and clears the deck.

That will force Labour to get off the pot to either adopt the same No Brexit or Brexit platform and the results of that general election then is the ultimate decider. 

That should bring the curtain down on the last act. However probably the pigs fly version.

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57 minutes ago, Expatriated said:

"two weeks in Benidorm" - I lived in Paris, Geneva and Amsterdam and am not sure which way I would have voted if I still lived in Europe.

Don’t snip my quote and take it out of context please, my comment above still has nothing to do with your original accusation. 

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54 minutes ago, Expatriated said:

The EEC rushed the Common Fisheries policy into effect just before the UK joined back in the 1970's. Look it up. 

The EU immigration problem is primarily related to welfare benefits. In France - and I believe most of Europe - you have to pay some form of national insurance before benefits can be claimed whereas in the UK these can be claimed immediately. EU rules require all EU nationals to be treated as locals - a bit of creative rule making within the UK could have resolved this but competence from the British civil service and politicians was lost decades ago...

On this, I agree with you 100%

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11 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

There are some changes to the script that open up some interesting scenarios. For instance May has confirmed she won't contest the next election. You then combine that with episodes already broadcast.

The Irish who the Tories rely on to govern won't accept anything other than a soft Brexit and not the one on the table. Before even factoring in the disident Tory right wing who think it too soft and willing to cross the floor that makes the currrent deal or even with modification doomed.

Now the Labour Party make it weird. Corbyn campaigned during the referendum to remain in the EU as did the Tories but didn't join with Cameron and was critised internally about that, to the extent they tried to get rid of him. Like the Tories they accepted the referendum outcome and the wheels started turning.

However at their recent conference it was resolved that if May failed to get Brexit across the line they would leave the option of a People Vote on the table, but making no comittment. However some already calling for it now contry to policy. The Labour party is therefore as split as the Tories are on Brexit, no Brexit and the prospect of a People's vote.

It is clear the push for a People's Vote has legs on account the Brexit outcomes are now far more clear than was known at the time of the referendum. However with both parties so split how is a People Vote going to introduce anything different than now assuming it will probably be again be close to a 50/50 outcome.

The Tories are a minority government relying on the Irish to govern and whose support for anything other than a soft or no Brexit will see that support evaporate.

Seems to me the best bet for themselves and the country is adopt a simple "No Brexit" platform consistent with the majority party view, call a snap election at some point in time when everyone is exhausted, May steps down as promised, and they go to that election with a new leader. That finishes the aspirations of Boris and Co once and for all and clears the deck.

That will force Labour to get off the pot to either adopt the same No Brexit or Brexit platform and the results of that general election then is the ultimate decider. 

That should bring the curtain down on the last act. However probably the pigs fly version.

Thanks Jack, a very well written and clear summation of this debacle. 

But who the hell can even guess at what happens next?

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One thing is certain May has reinforced her dogged determination and her absolutely single-minded mission to see this Brexit thing through, no matter the personal cost. There appears to a strong sense of duty in the woman and one who sticks to her word. Pretty rare trait for politicians these days. It is certainly one that drives her opponents to distraction.

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2 hours ago, Expatriated said:

The EEC rushed the Common Fisheries policy into effect just before the UK joined back in the 1970's. Look it up. 

The EU immigration problem is primarily related to welfare benefits. In France - and I believe most of Europe - you have to pay some form of national insurance before benefits can be claimed whereas in the UK these can be claimed immediately. EU rules require all EU nationals to be treated as locals - a bit of creative rule making within the UK could have resolved this but competence from the British civil service and politicians was lost decades ago...

the brits still have the attitude they can run the world hence free for everyone, just look at the NHS, no financial accounting anywhere, its just a gift from the heavens.
Go into a hospital as a foreigner and say as much, the staff will say too hard do you have a relatives address we can use.

Largest employer in the EU and each ward in each hospital is its own buying group, thats so efficient, NOT

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

There are some changes to the script that open up some interesting scenarios. For instance May has confirmed she won't contest the next election. You then combine that with episodes already broadcast.

The Irish who the Tories rely on to govern won't accept anything other than a soft Brexit and not the one on the table. Before even factoring in the disident Tory right wing who think it too soft and willing to cross the floor that makes the currrent deal or even with modification doomed.

Now the Labour Party make it weird. Corbyn campaigned during the referendum to remain in the EU as did the Tories but didn't join with Cameron and was critised internally about that, to the extent they tried to get rid of him. Like the Tories they accepted the referendum outcome and the wheels started turning.

However at their recent conference it was resolved that if May failed to get Brexit across the line they would leave the option of a People Vote on the table, but making no comittment. However some already calling for it now contry to policy. The Labour party is therefore as split as the Tories are on Brexit, no Brexit and the prospect of a People's vote.

It is clear the push for a People's Vote has legs on account the Brexit outcomes are now far more clear than was known at the time of the referendum. However with both parties so split how is a People Vote going to introduce anything different than now assuming it will probably be again be close to a 50/50 outcome.

The Tories are a minority government relying on the Irish to govern and whose support for anything other than a soft or no Brexit will see that support evaporate.

Seems to me the best bet for themselves and the country is adopt a simple "No Brexit" platform consistent with the majority party view, call a snap election at some point in time when everyone is exhausted, May steps down as promised, and they go to that election with a new leader. That finishes the aspirations of Boris and Co once and for all and clears the deck.

That will force Labour to get off the pot to either adopt the same No Brexit or Brexit platform and the results of that general election then is the ultimate decider. 

That should bring the curtain down on the last act. However probably the pigs fly version.

give Northern Ireland back to Ireland and all the problems go away it seems, then have a hard brexit and let the german business people help with a trade deal.

Cant lose a trade dispute when you have a  trade deficit.

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1 hour ago, Sailabout said:

give Northern Ireland back to Ireland and all the problems go away it seems, then have a hard brexit and let the german business people help with a trade deal.

Cant lose a trade dispute when you have a  trade deficit.

Yeah.  Why be content with a catastrophic recession when you can have a proper civil war?

Cheers,

              W.

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47 minutes ago, WGWarburton said:

Yeah.  Why be content with a catastrophic recession when you can have a proper civil war?

Cheers,

              W.

Indeed. Possibly the craziest idea on the thread.

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1 hour ago, WGWarburton said:

Yeah.  Why be content with a catastrophic recession when you can have a proper civil war?

Cheers,

              W.

NI is the problem, get rid of the problem that hamstrings all other deals..

There is either going to be a hard border between Ireland and NI or between NI and the England, Wales and Scotland or there will still be uncontrolled immigration.

PS who would the civil war be between and for what reason

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5 hours ago, Expatriated said:

The EEC rushed the Common Fisheries policy into effect just before the UK joined back in the 1970's. Look it up. 

The EU immigration problem is primarily related to welfare benefits. In France - and I believe most of Europe - you have to pay some form of national insurance before benefits can be claimed whereas in the UK these can be claimed immediately. EU rules require all EU nationals to be treated as locals - a bit of creative rule making within the UK could have resolved this but competence from the British civil service and politicians was lost decades ago...

The CFP was needed, pretty quickly, as the UK was an important fishing nation, and had recently had to concede in the cod war with Iceland. This policy was not forced on the UK and indeed was much modified in consultation, and eventually, agreement with the UK.

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5 minutes ago, cms said:

The CFP was needed, pretty quickly, as the UK was an important fishing nation, and had recently had to concede in the cod war with Iceland. This policy was not forced on the UK and indeed was much modified in consultation, and eventually, agreement with the UK.

politicians own farms not fishing boats, simple deal, one swapped for the other

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you really don't know Irish politics (both sides of the border)

27 minutes ago, Sailabout said:

 

NI is the problem, get rid of the problem that hamstrings all other deals..

PS who would the civil war be between and for what reason

 You really don't know Irish politics (both sides of the border)if you have to ask that one.

Since Pre 1600, when the Scots king started the plantation of  Scots in Northern Ireland, while the Norman decendant royalty of England, Wales and Ireland tried to control Ireland. there has been a Dispute between the Protestant incomers and the Catholics of Ireland.

  At partition of Ireland the Six counties of the North and Dublin Voted to stay in the UK, It was impossible to to Keep Dublin in the UK as a small area. However the Six counties were split off to stay. There then followed a civil war in Southern Ireland, between two factions of the Independance movement.

Later In the north there was the troubles where Sinn Fein and the Irish Republican Army (Note the IRA is a communist body from which the Provisional IRA and the  Irish Liberation Front split) tried to bomb Northern Ireland and the UK into giving Northern Ireland to Ireland. Against them fought the Uster Defence Force and the Ulster Defence Association. The British army was put into Northern Ireland to try to keep the two side apart, which the IRA /PIRA /NLF then claimed was an army of occupation.

Note that the total number of deaths caused by the troubles in NI and the UK caused by the troubles, was less than the annual criminal death rate in New York..

If NI was given to Ireland then Dublin and NI would be bombed by the UDA /UDF as they fought the Irish army and the PIRA instead of London and NI getting Bombed as before..

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51 minutes ago, Sailabout said:

 

NI is the problem, get rid of the problem that hamstrings all other deals..

PS who would the civil war be between and for what reason

 NI is part of the UK.  Its residents are British citizens. A majority of them want to stay that way.

Have a quick google for "the troubles" and decide how deep you want to go - you can go back as far as you want - Good Friday Agreement (made possible by membership of the EU)? Late '60s (flare up of the Troubles)? 1922 (Partition of Ireland/Irish Civil War)? 1916 (Easter Rising in the middle of WW1)? Williamite Wars? Great Famine? Henry VIII styling himself King of Ireland? Henry II asserting overlordship at the end of the 12th century?

 One of the most spectacular failures of the "brexiteers" has been their failure to grasp the intractability of the Irish Border problem. Doubly astonishing since many (all?) of them grew up while the IRA were conducting a bombing campaign on the British Mainland: In 1984 Boris Johnston was attending Oxford University when the IRA set off a bomb at a Brighton Hotel that was hosting Conservative party members for their annual conference, killing five people. It is mind-bending to try to understand how he could think that the paradox the border presents could be waved away...

Cheers,

              W.

 

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10 minutes ago, WGWarburton said:

 NI is part of the UK.  Its residents are British citizens. A majority of them want to stay that way.

Have a quick google for "the troubles" and decide how deep you want to go - you can go back as far as you want - Good Friday Agreement (made possible by membership of the EU)? Late '60s (flare up of the Troubles)? 1922 (Partition of Ireland/Irish Civil War)? 1916 (Easter Rising in the middle of WW1)? Williamite Wars? Great Famine? Henry VIII styling himself King of Ireland? Henry II asserting overlordship at the end of the 12th century?

 One of the most spectacular failures of the "brexiteers" has been their failure to grasp the intractability of the Irish Border problem. Doubly astonishing since many (all?) of them grew up while the IRA were conducting a bombing campaign on the British Mainland: In 1984 Boris Johnston was attending Oxford University when the IRA set off a bomb at a Brighton Hotel that was hosting Conservative party members for their annual conference, killing five people. It is mind-bending to try to understand how he could think that the paradox the border presents could be waved away...

Cheers,

              W.

 

the fight is /was between the the original Catholic inhabitants and the Protestants that England dumped there, how does that change with a hard border?

NI exists because at the vote in 1922 the protestants had the majority in that region

Canada and the USA have a hard porous border, whats the issue?

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3 hours ago, Sailabout said:

give Northern Ireland back to Ireland and all the problems go away it seems

Sail, are you US based ?  That would be a bit like giving Texas back to the Mexicans.   I'm sure that a few people would not agree with that :o

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10 minutes ago, Laser1 said:

Sail, are you US based ?  That would be a bit like giving Texas back to the Mexicans.   I'm sure that a few people would not agree with that :o

no, but a freelance arms dealer, lol

PS i think the Mexicans in TX would vote to keep it in the USA then again TX might go independent??

Probably more Mexicans in TX then people in NI.
( there's an idea, get Trump to put the invaders who will be catholic in NI to even the odds out then have another vote, 2 problems solved)

Population of NI lost in Iraq war just to put it in perspective

I have worked in UK and TX

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14 minutes ago, Sailabout said:

the fight is /was between the the original Catholic inhabitants and the Protestants that England dumped there, how does that change with a hard border?

NI exists because at the vote in 1922 the protestants had the majority in that region

Canada and the USA have a hard porous border, whats the issue?

Most of the Protestants in Northern Ireland are SCOTTISH Presbyterian Descendants.

 
 

 

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7 minutes ago, The Q said:

Most of the Protestants in Northern Ireland are SCOTTISH Presbyterian Descendants.

 
 

 

Scots wanted independence, there's another problem that could be solved..

Shift a few people, rename a few places and everyone happy

Hows the irony of the English causing all the problems yet everyone votes to stay with them?

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6 hours ago, Expatriated said:

whereas in the UK these can be claimed immediately.

I'm sorry that is a load of bollocks.

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29 minutes ago, Sailabout said:

Scots wanted independence, there's another problem that could be solved..

Shift a few people, rename a few places and everyone happy

Hows the irony of the English causing all the problems yet everyone votes to stay with them?

Hardly the English, in 1603 King James of Scotland took over England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland,  Before that the Tudors were of Welsh descent. Before that were the Plantagenets of Norman / French Descent. 

It was Scots King James who encouraged most of the plantations.

England Wales, Ireland and a lot of Scotland was controlled by an Aristocracy that was of Norman Descent

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11 minutes ago, N1772 said:

I'm sorry that is a load of bollocks.

Beat me to it N.  A lot of Expatriated's claims seem to be based on 'beliefs' and that's exactly why the country is in this cluster f*ck.  Dunno when Ex. has last asked for a state hand-out but I can.  After having worked here for 5 years I had to go to the Job Centre , albeit for only one month only luckily.  £60 quid a week with a time limit of 6 months due to my 'short' tax-history in the country.   On the question what happens afterwards they said quite bluntly ........ Your problem!

That was 7 years ago and regulations have become much stricter since then, I'm sure.

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18 minutes ago, The Q said:

 

Hardly the English, in 1603 King James of Scotland took over England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland,  Before that the Tudors were of Welsh descent. Before that were the Plantagenets of Norman / French Descent. 

It was Scots King James who encouraged most of the plantations.

England Wales, Ireland and a lot of Scotland was controlled by an Aristocracy that was of Norman Descent

perfect join NI with Scotland and repair the wall that is already there and leave them in the EU

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25 minutes ago, Laser1 said:

Beat me to it N.  A lot of Expatriated's claims seem to be based on 'beliefs' and that's exactly why the country is in this cluster f*ck.  Dunno when Ex. has last asked for a state hand-out but I can.  After having worked here for 5 years I had to go to the Job Centre , albeit for only one month only luckily.  £60 quid a week with a time limit of 6 months due to my 'short' tax-history in the country.   On the question what happens afterwards they said quite bluntly ........ Your problem!

That was 7 years ago and regulations have become much stricter since then, I'm sure.

Lots of ways to beat the system, get girls pregnant then throw them out council has to keep finding them accommodation, then rent out the spare rooms

be a refugee, get house and car, even if you claimed in another EU country, only one spouse claims then the other keeps the assets back in the home country.

Tell the council you have a flat to rent to them because you feel sorry for refugees, BUT it will need some mods to make it to the standard, council will loan you you the money but not being in the banking business sort of forget to ask for it back, years later they will but by them you have 10 houses you rent to the council so just write the cheque.

Then sell it to the tenant with the help of your mate the local bank manager knowing they cant really pay and a few years later, debt, repossession, you buy it from the bank BUT tell the council you wont kick out the now new council tenant BUT i need some money to update it so it complies and the cycle continues.

UK is the wildwest....

How to never pay council tax...next installment

Brits dont know half this stuff...

 

go to a doctor or a hospital and what happens?
All good you take your sons utility bill which has the same name, mohamed mohamed, and doc says great your a resident, saved me 2 pages of form filling.

When you think about it rather then fix a hopeless system the Brits are just trying to stop people coming to take advantage. No wonder the French say its the honey pot the Brits created that causes the migrations.
Still you can live ( if independently financial) in the UK and not exist which is a bonus, or just get your tenents to pay their rent overseas, just make sure your bank statement doesnt have an address in the EU and pull out the cash from cash machine with your foreign bank card.

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12 minutes ago, Sailabout said:

perfect join NI with Scotland and repair the wall that is already there and leave them in the EU

Which wall?  Hadrians is In England, between Carlisle (ish) and Wallsend,  the Antonine wall is roughly between the Forth and Clyde rivers so well into Scotland.

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Just now, The Q said:

Which wall?  Hadrians is In England, between Carlisle (ish) and Wallsend,  the Antonine wall is roughly between the Forth and Clyde rivers so well into Scotland.

if its north of the M25 then it can all go...

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11 minutes ago, Sailabout said:

if its north of the M25 then it can all go...

Redhill or Potters bar? Note that "London" voted remain.. but then you know that, as you are clearly trolling...

 

Cheers,

             W.

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1 hour ago, Sailabout said:

if its north of the M25 then it can all go...

Trolling or not, that's quite funny.  You forgot the sarcasm font Sail :lol:

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The best strategy at this point is revoke current BREXIT and have another referendum. If the second referendum votes remain than it's easy. If the second referendum votes leave then start immediately preparing for a hard BREXIT.

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9 minutes ago, Expatriated said:

EEA area member have the 'Right to Reside'...

Ex you forgot to mention under what conditions and how much that will cost.  Look forward to hear.

Re you strategy, it certainly looks that way.   God help us all when option 2 happens.

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They should have been more acutely aware of the Irish border impact before starting this self inflicted injury. Like forgetting the kids are asleep in the back of the old car when it gets hauled away to the crusher. 

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The problem for any future referendum will be what will be the question?

if it's    in or out, the brexiteers will protest we've already had that

if it's,   Hard soft or no brexit, the Hard and No Brexiteers will protest... and with the triple question do you have a transferable vote, because if not no one will get more that 50%

 

Meanwhile, the schedule for Parliament till Christmas has published.... it does not include the vote May cancelled...

 

 

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20 minutes ago, NaptimeAgain said:

They should have been more acutely aware of the Irish border impact before starting this self inflicted injury. Like forgetting the kids are asleep in the back of the old car when it gets hauled away to the crusher. 

Cameron did forget his chldren when he left the pub.. /  restaurant and he got us into this mess..

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5 hours ago, The Main Man said:
6 hours ago, WGWarburton said:

Yeah.  Why be content with a catastrophic recession when you can have a proper civil war?

Cheers,

              W.

Indeed. Possibly the craziest idea on the thread.

How about taking a (very large) chainsaw along the border, towing NI out to sea and anchoring it?

Crazier?

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19 minutes ago, The Q said:

The problem for any future referendum will be what will be the question?

if it's    in or out, the brexiteers will protest we've already had that

if it's,   Hard soft or no brexit, the Hard and No Brexiteers will protest... and with the triple question do you have a transferable vote, because if not no one will get more that 50%

 

Meanwhile, the schedule for Parliament till Christmas has published.... it does not include the vote May cancelled...

 

 

I am not aware of any serious UK politician who has called for a no deal Brexit.  The entire Leave campaign was premised on the idea that there would be an exit deal that would be favorable to the UK.  Even today, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg are calling for a renegotiated deal rather than a no deal Brexit.  Of course, the idea that the deal can be renegotiated is just a face-saving ploy.  The EU simply can't offer better terms to the UK because it would provide incentive for other members to leave.   Based on this, I would expect any new referendum to be a choice between Remain or take Prime Minister May's deal.  Of course, that is the logical set of choices, and logic doesn't necessarily apply in politics.

 

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8 minutes ago, captain_crunch said:

I am not aware of any serious UK politician who has called for a no deal Brexit... Even today, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg are calling for a renegotiated deal rather than a no deal Brexit. 

Are you sure about that?

https%3A%2F%2Fwww.express.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2F1057234%2FBrexit-news-jacob-rees-mogg-theresa-may-brexit-deal-meaningful-vote-no-deal-brexit&psig=AOvVaw0p-igGs0c-Q6P9kEeH58vx&ust=1544794631170566

https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Farticle%2Fus-britain-eu-johnson%2Fboris-johnson-sniping-at-may-calls-for-no-deal-brexit-minister-idUSKCN1NT0KM&psig=AOvVaw0k3-JrJ1cFLq5nnpOn99NJ&ust=1544794988787580

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5 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Your proof requires one to collude in a shared delusion that Johnson & Rees-Mogg are serious politicians.

 I'm not convinced that's a defensible position: on factual, moral or ethical grounds.

Cheers,

             W.

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34 minutes ago, Black Sox said:

How about taking a (very large) chainsaw along the border, towing NI out to sea and anchoring it?

Crazier?

and tow England south to get better weather, then you have a winner

 

 

Brexit=first into the lifeboat will survive....

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8 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

From the first link regarding Jacob Rees-Mogg:

"The Tory arch-Brexiteer lashed out at the Prime Minister following yesterday’s shambles in the Commons. He said: “I think the likelihood of leaving without a Withdrawal Agreement has gone up. But I think we should aim for a managed no deal, and I have made clear and will happily reiterate – we need a new Prime Minister to do that.”"

From the second link regarding Boris Johnson:

"Former British foreign secretary Boris Johnson on Saturday called for the government to appoint a minister to prepare for a “no-deal” British exit from the European Union in order to increase London’s leverage in talks with Brussels."

They state the need to plan for a no-deal Brexit, but  they are too afraid to call for a no-deal Brexit.

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10 minutes ago, captain_crunch said:

They state the need to plan for a no-deal Brexit, but  they are too afraid to call for a no-deal Brexit.

You must have gone to the same school of semantics as these two self indulgent wankers . They are doing all they can to blow up a Withdrawal Agreement regardless of the terms so the only outcome is No Deal. Or is there some other outcome no one on planet earth is aware of?

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May should now appoint Reese Mogg and BJ as Brexit negotiators and give them 2 weeks to get a better deal. That would be hilarious.

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