Meat Wad

Brexit, WTF

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14 hours ago, mad said:

I hope the other 2 are Brittany ferries, the food is better. 

Yes £46 million to BF to increase rotations to Le Havre, Cherbourg and Roscoff.

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6 hours ago, cms said:

Yes £46 million to BF to increase rotations to Le Havre, Cherbourg and Roscoff.

just wondering if that would be really helpful from a logistics point of view or not ... if it's correct the idea is to lessen congestions in the Dover - Folkestone area and thinking that a majority of what passes there is more destined or originating from the northern part of europistan (northern france, belgium, netherlands, germany and whatever lies behind these area's) then the question is if the time and money you spend driving around to Le Havre and the others would be more economical or not, time will tell but have my doubts. I'd think they better bring more ferries to the north, like Oostende, Zeebrugge , Hoek van Holland even up to R'dam, that would make sense.

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On 12/21/2018 at 5:17 PM, hump101 said:

Rotterdam already has them, it trades extensively with the rest of the world already. They just need to feed the UK stuff out through the "rest of world" channels instead, which will frequently mean just leaving the goods on the external side since much has come in that way.

There is a massive bonded trucking yard in Verona, so hard border issues are not really an issue for freight it seems as they can freely cross the country to be processed away from the borders.
I wonder if they exist inside other countries in the EU?
 

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42 minutes ago, Albatros said:

just wondering if that would be really helpful from a logistics point of view or not ... if it's correct the idea is to lessen congestions in the Dover - Folkestone area and thinking that a majority of what passes there is more destined or originating from the northern part of europistan (northern france, belgium, netherlands, germany and whatever lies behind these area's) then the question is if the time and money you spend driving around to Le Havre and the others would be more economical or not, time will tell but have my doubts. I'd think they better bring more ferries to the north, like Oostende, Zeebrugge , Hoek van Holland even up to R'dam, that would make sense.

Are you suggesting there are some aspects of the planning for Brexit that are less than well done? Seems hard to believe given the excellence in planning otherwise demonstrated.

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8 hours ago, cms said:

Yes £46 million to BF to increase rotations to Le Havre, Cherbourg and Roscoff.

I thought the illegals are using their own boats, they must know something about Brexit thats not obvious to the remoaners.

Still queuing at the channel tunnel I hear

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3 hours ago, Albatros said:

just wondering if that would be really helpful from a logistics point of view or not ... if it's correct the idea is to lessen congestions in the Dover - Folkestone area and thinking that a majority of what passes there is more destined or originating from the northern part of europistan (northern france, belgium, netherlands, germany and whatever lies behind these area's) then the question is if the time and money you spend driving around to Le Havre and the others would be more economical or not, time will tell but have my doubts. I'd think they better bring more ferries to the north, like Oostende, Zeebrugge , Hoek van Holland even up to R'dam, that would make sense.

The other two are to the east of Dover. To the west there is only Brittany Ferries. At least, as Mad says, the nosh is good.

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21 minutes ago, cms said:

The other two are to the east of Dover. To the west there is only Brittany Ferries. At least, as Mad says, the nosh is good.

makes more sense ... grin, so my dear neighbour froggies might have had it right this time, the novelty, grin, in that the last years there have been big works in Calais, my neighbour in the marina is  a brit and friends living  in Dover who cross regularly all have been telling that Calais has been extended/upgraded to a point that their "what the fuck" sensors went in overdrive.

might also be an opportunity for a plan and negotiations that have been ongoing for a new ferry line between Oostende and Ramsgate, blocking factor have been cost and timing to securise the ports (both have the infrastructure, but not used for years) to current standards but if the nosh is good ... hah, yet another black hole to drain some uk and eurodollars

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Oh, btw none of those ports have the customs agents to clear in/out that 'surplus' freight.  Or the HMRC presence/capacity to deal with that.

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9 minutes ago, Laser1 said:

Oh, btw none of those ports have the customs agents to clear in/out that 'surplus' freight.  Or the HMRC presence/capacity to deal with that.

none of the other ports have that either given a no deal brexit ...

but true, the Ramsgate - Oostende deal is a pretty dodgy deal, smells like a bit of a scam at worst and at best a very opportunistic move

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Wow, I hadn’t realized Theresa May had subcontracted Brexit contingency planning to Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority. Presumably she selected PREPA for their demonstrated ability to award contracts to the unqualified but politically connected as demonstrated by hiring a two person firm (one of whom was a nurse) for the key role in rebuilding their hurricane destroyed electric grid.

So many frightening parallels between the leaders in Westminster and in Washington.

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Do we even let Virginians into Maryland? Self-labeling is largely driven by context. Within a state, it's county or large city etc. Outside of their own country most folks open with country, assuming correctly that nobody in Penang or Antwerp or Accra knows where Loudon County is, or why it's Allegheny County in PA and Allegany County in MD.

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Actually my wording was pour, or I am still wrong :) next to identifying as an American, there is too an identification by state. Opposing Expats claim that the US is more homogeneous so happier/ less problematic to be in a state union. When there is an Euro Fed, people will still have a country identification.
One example, there is even no roller disco in Virginia. The culture in Washington or in Texas or in Mass are different I thought.
But it is a side discussion. Though some favour Brexit because they are afraid to loose their culture.

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58 minutes ago, NaptimeAgain said:

Do we even let Virginians into Maryland? Self-labeling is largely driven by context. Within a state, it's county or large city etc. Outside of their own country most folks open with country, assuming correctly that nobody in Penang or Antwerp or Accra knows where Loudon County is, or why it's Allegheny County in PA and Allegany County in MD.

I live in Virginia and have crossed into Maryland many times.  I always find it aggravating when I drive into Maryland because the speed limit is lower.

 

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36 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Actually my wording was pour, or I am still wrong :) next to identifying as an American, there is too an identification by state. Opposing Expats claim that the US is more homogeneous so happier/ less problematic to be in a state union. When there is an Euro Fed, people will still have a country identification.
One example, there is even no roller disco in Virginia. The culture in Washington or in Texas or in Mass are different I thought.
But it is a side discussion. Though some favour Brexit because they are afraid to loose their culture.

The US is essentially a compromise unifying solution (or grand experiment) that dealt at the time with significant factionalization of the original colonies. Industrial north v agricultural south, slavery versus no slavery, large states v small states etc. The original Federal government failed under the Articles of Confederation, and the US Constitution (in 1789) came 13 years after the Declaration of Independence. We might imagine that Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Virginia were the UK, Germany, and France among the colonies. 

We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

The state cultures still have significant differences in customs, idioms, cuisine, education, etc.. 

It's more about being politely informative rather than making a geopolitical statement. If you are, for example, at Ocean City (a regional beach resort in Maryland) and someone asks where you're from, the typical response would be local/regional, e.g. Baltimore, DC, Annapolis. If you said "the US" most people would think you were being a smart ass. However, if you speak like a Texan or a Minnesotan, we might expect a reply of "Houston" or "Minnesota" since most Marylanders would not recognize "Big Lake" (TX) or "Pelican Rapids" (MN). If your attire or accent suggest a different country, we would expect you to reply with the country name unless you're from a very large city, e.g. London (though you may be from Ontario Canada; Berlin (though you could be 10 miles away in Berlin MD) etc.

On the other hand, Disney World is an international attraction, so we would expect to see more guests who are not from the local Orlando FL area.

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… Also, you can drive all the way through Virginia on I-95 without paying tolls provided you don't use the express lanes just south of DC.  Maryland hits you up for tolls at the Baltimore tunnels and again near the Delaware state line.

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14 minutes ago, captain_crunch said:

I live in Virginia and have crossed into Maryland many times.  I always find it aggravating when I drive into Maryland because the speed limit is lower.

 

:D If you drive to Leesburg you can take the ferry across into MD. I literally watched them build the beltway and all the bridges except Chain, Key, and Arlington Memorial. Originally MD had 3 lanes and VA 2. Then VA increased to 4 and the lane building "arms race" took off. I can't stand NoVA traffic - my sympathies to you. Luckily my need to attend morning meetings in Tysons is exceedingly rare, as is my need to fly from Dulles.

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1 minute ago, captain_crunch said:

… Also, you can drive all the way through Virginia on I-95 without paying tolls provided you don't use the express lanes just south of DC.  Maryland hits you up for tolls at the Baltimore tunnels and again near the Delaware state line.

But the roads are pretty good. I can always tell when I cross from PA to MD. Tolls are a pain, but I think 95 in Delaware gets a prize for highest toll burden per driven mile.

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Regarding cultural differences between states, they often aren't any greater than the cultural differences that exist within a state.  For example, consider the difference between San Francisco and Bakersfield in California, or the difference between Grundy and Alexandria in Virginia.

Regarding traffic in the DC area, I dread it.  My usual strategy is to drive to the Pentagon City Mall and take the Metro from there if possible.  I am fortunate to live in the Hampton Roads area where the traffic is generally more genteel.

Regarding tolls, yeah, Delaware sucks.  They should put it on their welcome signs:  "Welcome to Delaware.  Please pay toll."

 

 

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I've been looking at the betting odds at https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/brexit/brexit-specials .  I presently see the following.

UK to officially leave EU by 29/03/2019 - No:  4/7

UK to officially leave EU by 29/03/2019 - Yes:  5/4

If I understand this correctly, if you bet 7 pounds that the UK will not leave the EU, your net winnings will be 4 pounds (57% of your bet) if the UK does not actually leave.  If you bet 4 pounds that the UK will leave the EU, your net winnings will be 9 pounds (225% of your bet) if the UK actually leaves.  I take this to indicate that the betting houses see the more likely outcome being that the UK will remain within the EU.

 

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So after more then 250 years of Fed, there are still differences between states, even in states.
As there are different tax rules, education rules, etc. So nothing to worry that the EU will became a bland mono culture state for hundreds of years to come.
PS, maybe the Americans I did encounter knew from my accent to skip more local references, knowing that foreigners have trouble even naming all states. Let alone counties in states :)

Back to Brexit;
I think in the betting there is the factor that the whole leaving can be put on a time extension.

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UK government is stressing that no Brexit would be a breach of faith with voters with baleful effects on our democracy. Corbyn says much the same. There are five conceivable outcomes, all are possible, none seems all that probable:

1. Crash out on March 29th. It is the default position. Parliament would not support it but ultimately, Parliament does not decide, the Government decides. ECJ has ruled UK could unilaterally halt or delay Article 50.

2. Parliament votes the May deal through. This is hard to imagine unless enough Conservative MPs can be persuaded the alternatives are worse, no sign of that so far.

3. May negotiates enough change with the EU to make the deal palatable enough to vote through Parliament. Seems improbable but May appears to be betting on it.

4. 2nd referendum, which would require a hold on the March 29th date. Both government and the official opposition are dead set against it but possibly the only way to reconcile democracy with the (probable) fact that Parliament cannot agree a way forward. 

5. A majority forms in Parliament around the idea of leaving the EU but joining the EEA. Cuts across May's red lines. Presumably cannot be negotiated for Match 29th. This option seems to be fading away in likelihood.

Beats me which of these will come to pass. 4. or 5. sound good to me, or best of a bad job anyway.

 

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Yep, 3 months to go and no clear path. Poor Brits.
4th can be a reason to delay';
Brussels has made clear that it would consider putting back the date of Brexit for a good reason, but has stressed that this could not mean reopening negotiations. The EU would be willing to allow extra time for a second referendum to take place.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/29/cross-party-stop-the-clock-hard-brexit-no-deal-29-march

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UK can cancel Article 50 without Brussels' gracious permission. ECJ has already ruled to that effect.

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From today's Irish Times, applications for IRL passports from UK residents in 2018 more than 20% greater than in 2017.

Not drawing any conclusions. Due to the close connections between the countries, there are probably many people resident in the UK or IRL who are entitled to a passport of the other jurisdiction, and are now taking up that entitlement. Probably more from a "why not?" stance than any serious concern.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/brexit-record-breaking-year-for-irish-passports-as-822-000-issued-1.3745030

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13 hours ago, captain_crunch said:

I've been looking at the betting odds at https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/brexit/brexit-specials .  I presently see the following.

UK to officially leave EU by 29/03/2019 - No:  4/7

UK to officially leave EU by 29/03/2019 - Yes:  5/4

If I understand this correctly, if you bet 7 pounds that the UK will not leave the EU, your net winnings will be 4 pounds (57% of your bet) if the UK does not actually leave.  If you bet 4 pounds that the UK will leave the EU, your net winnings will be 9 pounds (225% of your bet) if the UK actually leaves.  I take this to indicate that the betting houses see the more likely outcome being that the UK will remain within the EU.

 

Perhaps some English punter will clarify.

If I read the terms correctly then 4/7 equates to 64% probability of UK staying in EU;

And 5/4 equates to 44% probability of UK leaving the EU.

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14 hours ago, LeoV said:

Actually my wording was pour, or I am still wrong :) next to identifying as an American, there is too an identification by state. Opposing Expats claim that the US is more homogeneous so happier/ less problematic to be in a state union. When there is an Euro Fed, people will still have a country identification.
One example, there is even no roller disco in Virginia. The culture in Washington or in Texas or in Mass are different I thought.
But it is a side discussion. Though some favour Brexit because they are afraid to loose their culture.

LeoV I've in the USA for almost 20 years now and mostly socialize with Americans - my crew are all Americans unless you count the one born in the USA to Dutch parents and the one born in Japan to American parents as foreigners. The only state flags I've seen on private yachts are from Texas - always great to ask them why they are flying the Puerto Rican flag...

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5 minutes ago, KC375 said:

Perhaps some English punter will clarify.

 

If I read the terms correctly then 4/7 equates to 36% probability of UK staying in EU;

 

And 5/4 equates to 56% probability of UK leaving the EU.

 

My understanding is that odds of X/Y mean that if you bet Y your potential net winnings are X.

UK to officially leave EU by 29/03/2019 - No:  4/7 ==> Bet 7 pounds for potential net winnings of 4 pounds.

UK to officially leave EU by 29/03/2019 - Yes:  5/4 ==> Bet 4 pounds for potential net winnings of 5 pounds.

The higher payout for "Yes" indicates a lower probability that it will happen.

 

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2 minutes ago, captain_crunch said:

My understanding is that odds of X/Y mean that if you bet Y your potential net winnings are X.

UK to officially leave EU by 29/03/2019 - No:  4/7 ==> Bet 7 pounds for potential net winnings of 4 pounds.

UK to officially leave EU by 29/03/2019 - Yes:  5/4 ==> Bet 4 pounds for potential net winnings of 5 pounds.

The higher payout for "Yes" indicates a lower probability that it will happen.

 

I think you are right. I was correcting my probabilities as you posted.

I did find the description a bit confusing.  If I read it right, a 1 in 10 chance of something is quoted as 9-1, which I guess is short for I’ll pay you $9 for every $1 you bet.

A bit the way currency can be quoted direct or indirect depending on the country you are in.

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7 hours ago, dogwatch said:

UK government is stressing that no Brexit would be a breach of faith with voters with baleful effects on our democracy. Corbyn says much the same. There are five conceivable outcomes, all are possible, none seems all that probable:

1. Crash out on March 29th. It is the default position. Parliament would not support it but ultimately, Parliament does not decide, the Government decides. ECJ has ruled UK could unilaterally halt or delay Article 50.

2. Parliament votes the May deal through. This is hard to imagine unless enough Conservative MPs can be persuaded the alternatives are worse, no sign of that so far.

3. May negotiates enough change with the EU to make the deal palatable enough to vote through Parliament. Seems improbable but May appears to be betting on it.

4. 2nd referendum, which would require a hold on the March 29th date. Both government and the official opposition are dead set against it but possibly the only way to reconcile democracy with the (probable) fact that Parliament cannot agree a way forward. 

5. A majority forms in Parliament around the idea of leaving the EU but joining the EEA. Cuts across May's red lines. Presumably cannot be negotiated for Match 29th. This option seems to be fading away in likelihood.

Beats me which of these will come to pass. 4. or 5. sound good to me, or best of a bad job anyway.

 

The UK is a parliamentary democracy. The final responsibility for good governance resides with them, not with the people through continued referenda. If they consider that the government has failed to negotiate an adequate exit deal they should cancel Article 50. There is a clear majority in parliament for this and no new referendum is required.

This would likely see the May hung parliament stagger on into the second half of its term, followed by a poisonous leadership election for the Conservative party ahead of a general election.

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I also believe in representative democracy and the all-round crapness of attempting to use a referendum to paste over the cracks in a divided party has been demonstrated to destruction.

However we had the bloody referendum and in practice I don't believe the result can be reversed without a second one. Otherwise Stephen Christopher Yaxley-Lennon and his cohorts would be marching the streets until eternity,

 

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22 hours ago, Sailabout said:

There is a massive bonded trucking yard in Verona, so hard border issues are not really an issue for freight it seems as they can freely cross the country to be processed away from the borders.
I wonder if they exist inside other countries in the EU?
 

Yes there are inland ports in the UK and have been for many years. Iirc there is a rail served one at Corby mostly dealing in cars.  Alongside East Midlands airport there is one for air packages.

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Guess they may have sell their chlorinated chicken somewhere else then.

The UK exports 3 times as much to the EU as we do to the USA. Sorry, a trade deal with the USA is a second-order problem.

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On 12/28/2018 at 7:46 PM, LeoV said:

Meanwhile the car industry are speaking up;
https://www.smmt.co.uk/2018/12/automotive-industry-warns-of-catastrophe-of-exiting-eu-without-an-agreement-no-deal-must-be-off-the-table/

And a year wasted:
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/2018-has-been-a-wasted-year/

That website has some good material, though navigation on it is horrible.
Try this link,  UK in a Changing Europe report, Cost of No Deal Revisited.

I think one of the UK car industry's biggest problems is they tooled up to build diesels, now their buddies across the ditch don't want them.

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Politicians breach faith with the public???  Gee, that's never happened before.  In the big scheme of history, a Brexit redo is small potatoes compared to any number of expansionist colonial expeditions, wars against imperial cousins, etc.

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13 hours ago, KC375 said:

That's basically saying I have a great job offer for you but I can't tell you what it is until you quit your current job (and have given up your negotiating leverage.) If they are gullible enough to go for that they will have earned the thank you sir may I have another award. 

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13 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

I think one of the UK car industry's biggest problems is they tooled up to build diesels, now their buddies across the ditch don't want them.

They don't want them in the UK either.  Diesel was talked up hugely 15 years ago but now the complete opposite.  A lot of people not happy with the turnaround.

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15 hours ago, dogwatch said:

I also believe in representative democracy and the all-round crapness of attempting to use a referendum to paste over the cracks in a divided party has been demonstrated to destruction.

However we had the bloody referendum and in practice I don't believe the result can be reversed without a second one. Otherwise Stephen Christopher Yaxley-Lennon and his cohorts would be marching the streets until eternity,

 

An advisory and divisive referendum based on incomplete information that some people have pushed as an honour bond due to their personal positions.

Overall the result was fairly close. Yes an exit from the EU but not at any cost.

Across a number of democracies, recent votes seem to point be a large minority of around 28-35% who are wedded to a nationalistic viewpoint as a primary principle. Add in complacency and a good deal of pot stirring, and it seems that can be turned into a voting majority. So it is a view that demands to be taken account of. But threats of violence on the streets are nothing. That is not the British way of doing things.

The May deal is that kind of compromise with a small c. A second referendum possibly another, but equally could be seen as another chinless roll of the dice.

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8 hours ago, NaptimeAgain said:

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4120.html

US-UK balance of trade seems to oscillate from year to year, but grossly seems to net about even if you look across multiple decades. 

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0003.html

US-EU balance of trade seems consistently negative from a US POV. 

Got to wonder what the impact of US tech giants stockpiling EU profits until they get a favourable tax break from Congress might be on that.

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20 minutes ago, rgeek said:

But threats of violence on the streets are nothing. That is not the British way of doing things.

 

It can be https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Cable_Street In that case most of the demonstrators were arguably on the side of the angels. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Jo_Cox the murderer had links to the EDL.

There are plenty of other recent examples of the British far-right being armed, dangerous and spoiling for a fight. If you aren't concerned by that, I can't say I agree.

 

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1 hour ago, dogwatch said:

It can be https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Cable_Street In that case most of the demonstrators were arguably on the side of the angels. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Jo_Cox the murderer had links to the EDL.

There are plenty of other recent examples of the British far-right being armed, dangerous and spoiling for a fight. If you aren't concerned by that, I can't say I agree.

 

1

Possibly Bloody Sunday is an example of what can go wrong when you send in troops who actually align with the aggressors but Cable Street was an isolated incident the public fall out from which was not helpful to the Blackshirt cause.

Same with JoCox (RIP). The public reaction was not exactly a great benefit to the EDL.

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2213.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=forma

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On 12/29/2018 at 12:05 PM, Expatriated said:

I don't believe there is any legal requirement to pay the 39 billion. It would have been much better to delay submitting the BREXIT letter to coincide with the end of the EU budget cycle but Barnier et al would let that happen.

There is no way that the UK will default on its debt.

The UK will likely have to endure a lost decade in terms of a prolonged economic recession (Its already being called Brecession) but they survive.  The UK has never defaulted on its debt ever. Sterling is viewed as a fundamentally different currency from the South American and African basket cases that default on debt and whose currencies become worthless.  It would be a once in 500 year catastrophe if the UK defaults on its obligations.

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40 minutes ago, Mambo Kings said:

There is no way that the UK will default on its debt.

The UK will likely have to endure a lost decade in terms of a prolonged economic recession (Its already being called Brecession) but they survive.  The UK has never defaulted on its debt ever. Sterling is viewed as a fundamentally different currency from the South American and African basket cases that default on debt and whose currencies become worthless.  It would be a once in 500 year catastrophe if the UK defaults on its obligations.

So the Sterling has a longer more established history of meeting its obligations than those countries using the very young Euro as a currency?  The prop up target and lending economy trading in Euros has had more than a few bailouts in its short existence. Are those debts still outstanding or is there a re-payment schedule?

Maybe the more interesting speculation is what happens when/if some of the deadbeat European Union members actually using the Euro as currency cannot systematically meet their GDP/debt ratios and other performance metrics on a repeated year in year out basis. What then? What if one of the weaker union members finally throws in the towel and decides to go it alone with their olive oil, tourism and shipping and exit the Union? What if they cannot afford to exit based on 'the rules'?  Bankruptcy, and redraw the Drachma? If that were actually to happen, where does that leave the young Euro and those enthusiastic late joiners holding their brand new currency?

As for the trading bloc,, the U.K accounts for 10% of purchasing power outside of the bloc(i.e. Total Exports into the Union). Outside the bloc, they would join the U.S as two of the three biggest buyers of German exports. From this perspective, a couple of teetering smaller economies up onto the bandwagon and the balance of trade could potentially start to look a little different.

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The EURO has had 3 trillion pumped into it in the last few years to keep it afloat and the EU still has zero growth

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-15/draghi-s-3-trillion-qe-bet-isn-t-a-winner-yet-as-economy-wavers

EU Central bank not big enough to fix Deutsch Bank

wait till Deutsche Bank goes under, the EU ( and the world) will have something else to worry about

Deutsche Bank is in a far worse position today than Lehmans was in the year prior to it exploding so will require 10 times the amount used to cover Lehmans positions

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-epic-collapse-deutsche-bank/

At least they are making room for UK based bankers to move over by culling headcount, again...

https://www.dw.com/en/deutsche-bank-confirms-deeper-staff-cuts/a-43903891

Brexit= first into the liferaft as the unsinkable Titanic sails on...

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The 39 billion isn't a debt. As barnes said 'nothing is agreed until everything g is agreed.'

The EU behaviour over galileo is an example of why this should not be paid.

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59 minutes ago, Sailabout said:

wait till Deutsche Bank goes under, the EU ( and the world) will have something else to worry about

Deutsche Bank is in a far worse position today than Lehmans was in the year prior to it exploding so will require 10 times the amount used to cover Lehmans positions

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-epic-collapse-deutsche-bank/

Ah, 2 year old "news" so a more recent one;

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/05/deutsche-bank-squeezes-past-crucial-health-checks-but-concerns-remain.html

Yep, still not good, but bottomed out. Not Lehmans style. Even not UBS who almost vanished.
Lehmans was different, DB is more Fanny Mea style, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-06-06/deutsche-bank-s-future-is-more-fannie-mae-than-lehman

Oh, and your zero growth is a lie., but that we can expect by now.
And I bought a house for a very low price with a very low 20 yrs interest, so I am happy with the spending.
Was the printing of money a good deal ? No one can tell, but if a big crises will hit now there is no room in playing with interests... That is a concern.

1 hour ago, Sailabout said:

Brexit= first into the liferaft as the unsinkable Titanic sails on...

That is the vision of the Brexiteers, the rest of the reasons is fluff, and what if the Titanic this time does not sink ?

And even if the Titanic sinks, the core EU countries, France,Germany and Benelux and some others will start a new one, quicker then the UK does over a simple Brexit plan, the Neuro, the new euro, and a new Schengen deal between them. Will cost billions, but Eu is here to stay. To think if the Euro fails, all countries will vanish is wrong. And this scenario was in the back of the minds when the 08 crash happened.

 

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1 hour ago, Expatriated said:

The 39 billion isn't a debt. As barnes said 'nothing is agreed until everything g is agreed.'

The EU behaviour over galileo is an example of why this should not be paid.

Do we nees to go over the 39 billion again? Just keep repeating the lies..

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EU

42 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Ah, 2 year old "news" so a more recent one;

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/05/deutsche-bank-squeezes-past-crucial-health-checks-but-concerns-remain.html

Yep, still not good, but bottomed out. Not Lehmans style. Even not UBS who almost vanished.
Lehmans was different, DB is more Fanny Mea style, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-06-06/deutsche-bank-s-future-is-more-fannie-mae-than-lehman

Oh, and your zero growth is a lie., but that we can expect by now.
And I bought a house for a very low price with a very low 20 yrs interest, so I am happy with the spending.
Was the printing of money a good deal ? No one can tell, but if a big crises will hit now there is no room in playing with interests... That is a concern.

That is the vision of the Brexiteers, the rest of the reasons is fluff, and what if the Titanic this time does not sink ?

And even if the Titanic sinks, the core EU countries, France,Germany and Benelux and some others will start a new one, quicker then the UK does over a simple Brexit plan, the Neuro, the new euro, and a new Schengen deal between them. Will cost billions, but Eu is here to stay. To think if the Euro fails, all countries will vanish is wrong. And this scenario was in the back of the minds when the 08 crash happened.

 

your words not mine, they wont vanish but could have prolonged stagnation, step one has already been implemented as you recognise, pumping in money yet no real structual growth resulted even with zero interest rate so stagflation, seems to be a Japanese model?

If the Eu collapses best trading group to reform can only be Germany UK and Holland, the other large countries are basket cases.

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Whilst far from being a respected economist I have always noted the difference in economic management between the EU/key Euro group and the UK. The UK like other similar countries has been willing to ride the wild roller coaster of boom and bust, as these cycles, in all phases, puts money in the hands of those who play and even manipulate the markets. Europe has taken a more "socially managed" economic route absorbing hits along the way and therefore never seeing the steep rises and falls we have experienced in the UK. 2 different models. Is one fundamentally superior to the other?

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3 hours ago, Sailabout said:

The EURO has had 3 trillion pumped into it in the last few years to keep it afloat and the EU still has zero growth

EU Central bank not big enough to fix Deutsch Bank

wait till Deutsche Bank goes under, the EU ( and the world) will have something else to worry about

Deutsche Bank is in a far worse position today than Lehmans was in the year prior to it exploding so will require 10 times the amount used to cover Lehmans positions

At least they are making room for UK based bankers to move over by culling headcount, again...

Brexit= first into the liferaft as the unsinkable Titanic sails on...

The UK is not and never has been part of the European Monetary System.

The UK has its own currency, called Sterling, and its own central bank called The Bank of England. 

Oh....and about the comparison with Lehman's. The analogy is interesting because I have not heard a management team that sounded so like the senior management of Lehmans until last week in the UK. You can virtually cut and paste quotes from British politicians in December 2018 and overlay them with quotes from the senior management of Lehmans in 2008.  

But in comparison with Deutsche Bank, in 2008 Lehman had an intra quarter gross balance sheet of over $1 trillion and leverage of close to 30X.  DB today has a gross balance sheet of Eu 1.01 trillion and leverage (based on total loss absorbing equity and preferred) of approx 8.6x,  or just based on equity 15x.    They were about the same size but Lehmans had much more leverage.

But Brexiteers have never let facts get in the way of a good story.

 

 

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1 hour ago, cms said:

Whilst far from being a respected economist I have always noted the difference in economic management between the EU/key Euro group and the UK. The UK like other similar countries has been willing to ride the wild roller coaster of boom and bust, as these cycles, in all phases, puts money in the hands of those who play and even manipulate the markets. Europe has taken a more "socially managed" economic route absorbing hits along the way and therefore never seeing the steep rises and falls we have experienced in the UK. 2 different models. Is one fundamentally superior to the other?

It is hard to say, again, economics. I did read up on the difference between the effects on the US or EU after the 08 crash.
In the US a very deep crash but out of it quicker, the EU a much longer recession, but not as deep a crash. How it effects a person, either in US or EU is so different that I can not say witch system would be better. One thing too like of the US side is that the bankruptcy rules are less influential for your future, you can start over again easier.

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LeoV - look at the unemployment numbers in Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal...tells a better story that GDP growth charts.

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7 hours ago, Mambo Kings said:

The UK is not and never has been part of the European Monetary System.

The UK has its own currency, called Sterling, and its own central bank called The Bank of England. 

Oh....and about the comparison with Lehman's. The analogy is interesting because I have not heard a management team that sounded so like the senior management of Lehmans until last week in the UK. You can virtually cut and paste quotes from British politicians in December 2018 and overlay them with quotes from the senior management of Lehmans in 2008.  

But in comparison with Deutsche Bank, in 2008 Lehman had an intra quarter gross balance sheet of over $1 trillion and leverage of close to 30X.  DB today has a gross balance sheet of Eu 1.01 trillion and leverage (based on total loss absorbing equity and preferred) of approx 8.6x,  or just based on equity 15x.    They were about the same size but Lehmans had much more leverage.

But Brexiteers have never let facts get in the way of a good story.

 

 

the balance sheet doesnt tell the whole  story
How does DB's derivative exposure look compared with Lehmans?

PS thanks for letting me know that the UK uses the Pound and not the Euro, are you telling me you know people that dont know that?

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Expat,
Sail says something, I reply with the truth, simple fact check.

But for your figures, I know not al is shiny. Greece has a problem,  but look at how the numbers are collected too and be surprised, and how family bonds are and the black circuit. Rule of thumbs, divide Eu unemployement by almost 2 to get even with US calculation. And the youth are the worst off, but is improving.
Sep 2017 article, could not find any more recent so quickly. http://bruegel.org/2017/09/employment-in-europe-and-the-us-the-eus-remarkable-strength/

https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2014/02/comparing-us-and-euro-area-unemployment-rates.html

I can bounce back that the UK is not the healthiest in Europe, even with a 20% value drop of the Pound since the vote. So the pound is as lousy as the Euro, or even worse.
But you see in this the demise of EU, fine, but in view its bouncing back, even France is overtaking the UK in GDP, and with hard Brexit Italy can overtake the UK too. So another crises that pessimist would have thought that the EU would not survive is done.

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4 minutes ago, Sailabout said:

the balance sheet doesnt tell the whole  story
How does DB's derivative exposure look compared with Lehmans? 

PS thanks for letting me know that the UK uses the Pound and not the Euro, are you telling me you know people that dont know that?

https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/notizie/2018-08-13/stuart-lewis-deutsche-bank-has-cut-its-exposure-to-derivatives-174942.shtml?uuid=AEVjijaF&refresh_ce=1

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On 12/29/2018 at 1:29 PM, LeoV said:

So you are definitely a Cali guy. Youth years are the forming part for the most :)
It is almost worth a new topic...

Just a little tidbit for you, Leo; nobody in California ever cals it "Cali". That's the fastest way to get identified as a "touron", at which your point becomes valid as no one will take anything you say seriously because you are from anywhere else.

Seriously! :P

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12 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Expat,
Sail says something, I reply with the truth, simple fact check.

But for your figures, I know not al is shiny. Greece has a problem,  but look at how the numbers are collected too and be surprised, and how family bonds are and the black circuit. Rule of thumbs, divide Eu unemployement by almost 2 to get even with US calculation. And the youth are the worst off, but is improving.
Sep 2017 article, could not find any more recent so quickly. http://bruegel.org/2017/09/employment-in-europe-and-the-us-the-eus-remarkable-strength/

https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2014/02/comparing-us-and-euro-area-unemployment-rates.html

I can bounce back that the UK is not the healthiest in Europe, even with a 20% value drop of the Pound since the vote. So the pound is as lousy as the Euro, or even worse.
But you see in this the demise of EU, fine, but in view its bouncing back, even France is overtaking the UK in GDP, and with hard Brexit Italy can overtake the UK too. So another crises that pessimist would have thought that the EU would not survive is done.

all true, but its about the long term future not today and tomorrow
Looks like the Syrian refugees know that

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12 minutes ago, Sailabout said:

all true, but its about the long term future not today and tomorrow
Looks like the Syrian refugees know that

Which Syrian, I think you mean Iranian, Iraqi, Albaneese etc,
Syrians know they will get asylum in most EU countries, so no need to disappear in the UK black circuit.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44660699

Oh, I wish the UK success on the long run, could be possible it will turn out Ok. Maybe even better then the EU will do. Future economics are difficult to predict. But I will not put any money on it.

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3 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Which Syrian, I think you mean Iranian, Iraqi, Albaneese etc,
Syrians know they will get asylum in most EU countries, so no need to disappear in the UK black circuit.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44660699

sure but how come they are still traversing France and paddling to the UK with Brexit coming?

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Because they are told by money making traffickers it will be harder after Brexit. Guys you should really trust on their opinion.
And I think the refugees have no clue about what we are talking about, only that the UK is the easiest country to disappear in, get black work and get benefits like health care.

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8 hours ago, LeoV said:

Because they are told by money making traffickers it will be harder after Brexit. Guys you should really trust on their opinion.
And I think the refugees have no clue about what we are talking about, only that the UK is the easiest country to disappear in, get black work and get benefits like health care.

Which has nothing to do with membership of the EU

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18 hours ago, Expatriated said:

I guess the UK should just take whatever Barnier offers and be grateful.

Pretty much, yes. EU holds the cards, thinking otherwise was always delusional.

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25 minutes ago, dogwatch said:

Pretty much, yes. EU holds the cards, thinking otherwise was always delusional.

Yet the May deal offers some major concessions on free movement while still catering for free trade of goods via customs union.

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Goods, meh. We have a services economy.

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4 minutes ago, dogwatch said:

Goods, meh. We have a services economy.

Had a service economy, until ye forced it all to move to Paris/Frankfurt/Dublin and added risk by coming up with ideas like crashing the German Banking system and not paying for existing EU commitments.

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Well, yes. One of the most vehement Brexiters I know makes a significant chunk of his living running instruction elsewhere in the EU, demonstrating that turkeys can be persuaded to vote for an early Christmas.

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21 hours ago, Expatriated said:

The EU behaviour over galileo is an example of why this should not be paid.

I don't understand this. You are implying that the EU is behaving badly again. The net UK contribution to Galileo is accounted for in the divorce bill, so the UK will have contributed nothing to it, and will then contribute nothing further to it through the projects life. Why should the UK, now as a third country, expect the EU to give it contracts for the EU space programme rather than give those contracts to an EU country that is contributing?

This "entitled" attitude has been prevalent amongst the leave campaign from the start, and still people are not understanding what leaving the EU actually means. The requirements to be part of such programmes are clearly stated by the EU, and if you stop meeting them, you are no longer on the programme. This was never hidden, except to those who wouldn't look.

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Someone remind me who made sure that the access restrictions to the Galileo Public Regulated Service the UK complains about made it into law?

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28 minutes ago, Chasm said:

Someone remind me who made sure that the access restrictions to the Galileo Public Regulated Service the UK complains about made it into law?

remind me why the EU needs its own gps?

sounds like a "because we can we will" project

Money would have have been much better spent on E-Loran

Uk was right to push forward with it but...not a glamorous project I guess...

https://maritime-executive.com/article/europe-gives-up-on-eloran

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Because the USA can and could switch it off at anytime / or change the codes so only their military can use it.

 (please don't tell trump this)

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2 minutes ago, The Q said:

Because the USA can and could switch it off at anytime / or change the codes so only their military can use it.

 (please don't tell trump this)

never going to happen, the whole world runs on it including the USA
Glonass has been working since 2011
China also building one

how many do we need?
 

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2 hours ago, dogwatch said:

Goods, meh. We have a services economy.

Yeah, but dive into that and you will find out that many services goes with products. Like exporting a wing of an aircraft with the service contract.
And others are export of the EU related, now a German company is using an UK firm to do the legal work for a contract in China. With hard Brexit that is in peril.  You want to make money on Brexit, get brilliant young minds in this area and move to Germany with them. The brain drain can be hurting the coming decades.
On the other hand, tourism is a service industry, if the pound drops more you can expect more tourism from the EU and UK staying at home.
In all I did read there can be a positive outcome for the services industry on the long term, with a lot of regulation change, and being dependable on the US.
But for the short term, a decade, only negative. But how negative, I can not tell. But it will not be positive.

3 hours ago, dogwatch said:

Pretty much, yes. EU holds the cards, thinking otherwise was always delusional.

Yep, and the Brexiteers thought they were good card readers.  But the Eu did not play blackjack with one deck :)

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3 minutes ago, Sailabout said:

never going to happen, the whole world runs on it including the USA
Glonass has been working since 2011
China also building one

how many do we need?
 

If they could afford it every country would have their own, no one trusts anyone, would you put your life on the line using a russian or chinese system?

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Lots of those businesses are in the UK because the skills are there, F1 cars for example and Airbus wings, Hagus, black pudding etc etc

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7 minutes ago, The Q said:

 

If they could afford it every country would have their own, no one trusts anyone, would you put your life on the line using a russian or chinese system?

you are putting your life in their hands when your plane is out of radar controlled airspace re the USA NAVSTAR GPS...
its another part of the world too integrated to cock up.
We get to use them at someone elses expence, good deal
Oil n Gas offshore industry has been using the Russian system alongside the Navstar since 2011, Galileo will be added as the years go on and punters update their GPS systems

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12 hours ago, Sailabout said:

the balance sheet doesnt tell the whole  story
How does DB's derivative exposure look compared with Lehmans? Lehmans had a gross notional $35 trillion derivatives portfolio at the time of bankruptcy.  DB is not even close. It is a popular misconception that derivatives brought down Lehman. They did not....but that is a longer story.

PS thanks for letting me know that the UK uses the Pound and not the Euro. You are welcome. Sadly I am not sure that Brexiteers understand why the distinction is important. I see post after post in this thread confusing the Eurozone (19 members)  with the EU ( 28 members).  The Euro is used as a currency in the Eurozone and in 6 other countries that are not even members of the EU.  It has nothing whatsoever to so with Brexit.  In fact there is nothing to stop the UK from leaving the EU and adopting the Euro instead of the Pound. In a stroke, the UK could go from the best of both worlds to the worst of both worlds.

FWIW, the Euro has been a honeypot for Germany and other productive economies whose exports benefit from a currency kept lower by the less efficient and less productive members and it is a burden to the likes of Greece and Spain who struggle to be competitive on the same currency as Germany. But the symbiotic relationship works for now because the weaker members benefit from the creditworthiness of Germany, and Germany is happy to prop them up from time to time (despite public protestation) because the Euro is so good for them.  The UK does well to stay out of the Eurozone.  But obviously it is a monumental economic folly to leave the EU. 

If the voters were told honestly about the economic costs and the resulting stagnation in living standards... but still voted to leave because of cultural differences, values differences or religious differences with Europe .....then that would be a valid decision.    Sadly, I think history will look back on this event and conclude that the Brexiteer politicians were not honest with their constituents.

 

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3 hours ago, hump101 said:

I don't understand this. You are implying that the EU is behaving badly again. The net UK contribution to Galileo is accounted for in the divorce bill, so the UK will have contributed nothing to it, and will then contribute nothing further to it through the projects life. Why should the UK, now as a third country, expect the EU to give it contracts for the EU space programme rather than give those contracts to an EU country that is contributing?

This "entitled" attitude has been prevalent amongst the leave campaign from the start, and still people are not understanding what leaving the EU actually means. The requirements to be part of such programmes are clearly stated by the EU, and if you stop meeting them, you are no longer on the programme. This was never hidden, except to those who wouldn't look.

I see a problem with demanding that the UK support EU security at the same time as denying access to Galileo. I think the EU may need to find another ground station location in the South Atlantic.

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33 minutes ago, Mambo Kings said:

 

yes true the euro allowed the rest of the EU to buy BMW's to make Germany richer, ( DM would have been pushed very high) and also helped prop up the sick EU countries but joining the euro for some was what caused the issue in the first place. There was lots of boom and bust
The UK adopts the Euro after Brexit and kills itself twice, you might need to explain that.

I could see during the lead up to the vote neither side put any decent arguments or facts up, poorly done by both, yet it got more voters out than an election. Clearly it was the Brexit side that need to produce facts and there was very little so where was the good opposition when you need it?
Then the actual plan to leave started about 18 months too late...

I think the EU parliament also not forthcoming with any facts if you look back, it just looked like a complete unknown, make it up as you go deal

I dont get the T May deal is that the EU trying to pull a fast one, its not leave at all.
Is hard Brexit doable, UK just says tariff free on day one, who wants to trade? They do hold some cards up their sleeves

What are the facts,

UK trade with the rest of the world larger then EU trade and climbing as EU trade falls.
Trade deficit with the eu in goods
Trade surplus in services
Is the services surplus bigger than the goods deficit, I dont think so?

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Galileo; again I wonder what newspaper you read. They are not denied access, only they are not any more welcome in production, discussion and decision making on this. That ended with art 50. Oh and talks are still going on abut this issue.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/30/brexit-uk-may-never-recover-12bn-invested-in-eu-galileo-satellite-system
British armed forces were due to have access to Galileo’s encrypted system when it is fully operational in 2026. However, government and security agencies have concluded it would not be in the UK’s security interests to use the system’s secure elements if it had not been fully involved in their development.

oh and that land base in the South Atlantic, Falklands, Ascension and Guam, 2 out of 3 no problem Guyana and Wallis island, the Falklands could relocate to Reunion. And the Falklands will hate to see the base gone. They will be operational until 2020 at least.

And if playing this card was to scare the EU it did not work  “It’s completely pointless,” an EU official who worked on the Galileo project said of Britain’s plans. “It’s a declaration of independence. A needless political statement.”
if it was to play the UK politics, it worked for Expat :)

 

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Cant see the deal with the encrypted data is a big deal, a jamming device can still block it.

Spoofing device is different but to know you have been spoofed you need to have secondary access to the almanac before it gets uploaded so you can compare them.
or maybe Galileo will issue receivers than can keep swapping public private keys to help prevent the spoof hack?
May as well just put cell towers everywhere and use triangulation and E-loran for the sea?
 

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16 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Galileo; again I wonder what newspaper you read. They are not denied access, only they are not any more welcome in production, discussion and decision making on this. That ended with art 50. Oh and talks are still going on abut this issue.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/30/brexit-uk-may-never-recover-12bn-invested-in-eu-galileo-satellite-system
British armed forces were due to have access to Galileo’s encrypted system when it is fully operational in 2026. However, government and security agencies have concluded it would not be in the UK’s security interests to use the system’s secure elements if it had not been fully involved in their development.

oh and that land base in the South Atlantic, Falklands, Ascension and Guam, 2 out of 3 no problem Guyana and Wallis island, the Falklands could relocate to Reunion. And the Falklands will hate to see the base gone. They will be operational until 2020 at least.

And if playing this card was to scare the EU it did not work  “It’s completely pointless,” an EU official who worked on the Galileo project said of Britain’s plans. “It’s a declaration of independence. A needless political statement.”
if it was to play the UK politics, it worked for Expat :)

 

Not quite correct there LeoV, from the Guardian:-

What is the problem?

The European commission has started to block Britain’s space industry from being involved in manufacturing of the security elements of the satellite programme. The EU says the agreement struck over the terms of the 21-month transition period after Brexit gives it the freedom to do so. The commission has suggested that after Brexit the UK should not be given privileged access to “need-to-know” information about Galileo’s PRS. It has already banned UK representatives from discussions and exchanges pertaining to the post-2019 development of the security aspects of the satellite system.

and Juncker et al still demand full security cooperation - it's a one way street...

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1 hour ago, Expatriated said:

I see a problem with demanding that the UK support EU security at the same time as denying access to Galileo. I think the EU may need to find another ground station location in the South Atlantic.

Not denying access as you stated. But UK will be a third country with regards to access if all is played hard. And who can blame them. It is in the Galileo whole setup that it must be based on EU sail, with Eu companies producing it. The UK signed that contract. UK steps out, and is then crying wolf... How else did you want the Eu to behave ?
And were is the small print of you based on ?
 

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