Bristol-Cruiser

US fertility rate continues to decline

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https://www.nbcnews.com/health/womens-health/birth-rate-u-s-falls-lowest-level-32-years-cdc-n1005696

Perhaps not surprisingly, the US continues to experience dropping total fertility rates. In 2017 the rate was 1.72. For reference a steady population requires a TFR of 2.1. This is hardly a new development, in fact the TFR for US fell many years later than that of all other developed countries. At a time when the country is facing so many immediate issues this will not get much attention but it should be considered because of its long-term implications. 

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As I've said before,  this is one of the reasons I'd like to increase legal immigration,  particularly from east Africa -  Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia.  

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2 minutes ago, cmilliken said:

As I've said before,  this is one of the reasons I'd like to increase legal immigration,  particularly from east Africa -  Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia.  

But that would make the good ol' USA less white.  Goes against the whole MAGA thing.  ;)

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4 minutes ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

US continues to experience dropping total fertility rates

Some suggestions:

The problem is not enough teenage boozing, MDMA, and an almost total absence of drunken orgies in mainstream America. I say bring back bacchanalia!  Fertilize the fecund!
Get contraceptives and prophylactics into the whole health insurance shmozzle... they'll soon be priced out of reach!

Oh, and abortion... just to keep this thread bright and shiny.  USA needs all the babies it can get.  "WE WANT YOU!"  <Uncle Sam points at the baby...>  Yeah, mandatory pregnancies, that's the ticket!

 

Yes, demographics matters.  But I wouldn't sweat it too bad, there are still lots of people who are happy to immigrate to the US.  Start seriously worrying when that is no longer true.

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3 minutes ago, Swimsailor said:

But that would make the good ol' USA less white.  Goes against the whole MAGA thing.  ;)

 

8 minutes ago, cmilliken said:

As I've said before,  this is one of the reasons I'd like to increase legal immigration,  particularly from east Africa -  Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia.  

Good point, Immigration should focus exclusively on skin color and ethnicity. USG needs to give priority to africans to compensate for the high abortion rate among African americans. Caucasian and hispanic not so much.

BlackGenocide.org

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13 minutes ago, bacq2bacq said:

Some suggestions:

The problem is not enough teenage boozing, MDMA, and an almost total absence of drunken orgies in mainstream America. I say bring back bacchanalia!  Fertilize the fecund!
Get contraceptives and prophylactics into the whole health insurance shmozzle... they'll soon be priced out of reach!

Oh, and abortion... just to keep this thread bright and shiny.  USA needs all the babies it can get.  "WE WANT YOU!"  <Uncle Sam points at the baby...>  Yeah, mandatory pregnancies, that's the ticket!

 

Yes, demographics matters.  But I wouldn't sweat it too bad, there are still lots of people who are happy to immigrate to the US.  Start seriously worrying when that is no longer true.

There are lots of potential immigrants available, just not from Norway. 

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14 minutes ago, bacq2bacq said:

Oh, and abortion... just to keep this thread bright and shiny.  USA needs all the babies it can get.  "WE WANT YOU!"  <Uncle Sam points at the baby...>  Yeah, mandatory pregnancies, that's the ticket!

True, USG needs a constant supply of new blood to fight those never ending regime change wars for the the MIC and their financiers. Yeah, mandatory unprotected sex, that's the ticket!

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We measure growth as GDP increase.    That is short sighted.   We need to measure growth per capita.     Building new homes in farmland for new babies does not indicate prosperity, just more mortgaged drones and less tillable land.   

We can offset both the unproductive aging population and our lackluster work ethic with smart immigration.   I would encourage a multifaceted approach.    

  • We need some hard working labor in my area.    There are too many lazy young adults and half crippled older fat people.  Bring in some legal Mexicans or Africans.   Offer those able to avoid trouble and adapt a path to citizenship, as our Grandparents did.    We need to dilute out some poisonous ideas with fresh blood.
  • We need smart people to offset our stupid voters.    Encourage foreign students to attend American universities.   Offer those successfully earning doctorates in engineering, science, medicine or other non financial trades without getting in legal trouble citizenship along with their parchment,    We don’t need more risky financial instruments, so those graduates get to go back home.    
  • Discontinue golden visas.  We don’t need your idle rich, we need your smart and your hard working poor.
  • Enforce legal employment and discourage casual labor by making it 100% taxable profit for contractors.   

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4 minutes ago, Lark said:

We need some hard working labor in my area.  Bring in some legal Mexicans or Africans. 

You are a racist by definition. 

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3 minutes ago, Rat's ass said:

You are a racist by definition. 

I’m scared of white Evangelical Christians.    Fear breeds racism.  

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Just now, Lark said:

I’m scared of white Evangelical Christians.    Fear breeds racism.  

Fake liberal douchebags are like that. :rolleyes:  

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Get the Fox News talking bimbos to tell their audience the reason they don't have grandchildren is high healthcare costs, student loan debt, high housing costs and low paying jobs - and provide solutions to fix these and it'll get cleared up quick.

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13 minutes ago, Rat's ass said:

Fake liberal douchebags are like that. :rolleyes:  

Fake?    My online persona is pretty real.   Since I live in red hat territory I leave enough open to avoid obviously outing myself as a business decision.   Liberal?    I’m progressive and libertarian combined, and only seem liberal because I don’t collect guns, don’t believe we are a white theocracy, hate corruption, and refuse to promote a monster military to bomb and invade countries we won’t loot.   Since I fail those conservative tenants I seem liberal to those with closed minds.   Douchebag?   Are you calling me a device for irrigating a vagina?   It is a hobby of mine, so I guess you get partial credit,  :D

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20 minutes ago, Lark said:

We need smart people to offset our stupid voters.    Encourage foreign students to attend American universities.

NO!!! Oh, sorry, I was shouting.

Bertrand Russell (?): "We are born ignorant.  It is education that makes us stupid."

The whole point is to bring in a bunch of people who can think more clearly than the locals... and fuck like bunnies.

 

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It’s ok. The evangelicals have a “fuck for 6” campaign starting up. Well, they don’t call it that....

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24 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

It’s ok. The evangelicals have a “fuck for 6” campaign starting up. Well, they don’t call it that....

Problem is no one wants to fuck them 

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33 minutes ago, Lark said:

Since I live in red hat territory I leave enough open to avoid obviously outing myself as a business decision.

So you are also a coward as well as a bigot? That's very liberal of you. :lol:

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33 minutes ago, Rat's ass said:

So you are also a coward as well as a bigot? That's very liberal of you. :lol:

If you desire to meet me in the real world, I’m happy to relieve you of your misapprehensions.   Either sailing or sparring work for me (another hobby is martial arts).     I fear BOB may be falsely maligned for racism, since the photo was taken he’s suffered many footprints and looks like he’s in blackface.  Ironically BOB’s gi shirt was discounted to $5 as a novelty item.   I assure you despite being a Trump’s smartest supporter, he doesn’t have a racist bone in his plastic body,   

35A90AF4-11DD-4DDA-AAA2-70B3D39D0DFA.jpeg

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3 hours ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/womens-health/birth-rate-u-s-falls-lowest-level-32-years-cdc-n1005696

Perhaps not surprisingly, the US continues to experience dropping total fertility rates. In 2017 the rate was 1.72. For reference a steady population requires a TFR of 2.1. This is hardly a new development, in fact the TFR for US fell many years later than that of all other developed countries. At a time when the country is facing so many immediate issues this will not get much attention but it should be considered because of its long-term implications. 

Personally I don't see this as a bad thing. 

We can produce everything we need with far fewer people and fewer mouths to feed.

Fewer people = less environmental impact from human activity. 

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Why does anyone bother with rat's ass? If he is not the returd Grumpy he is just some other nutter flicked fuker.

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8 minutes ago, Movable Ballast said:

Personally I don't see this as a bad thing. 

We can produce everything we need with far fewer people and fewer mouths to feed.

Fewer people = less environmental impact from human activity. 

Yes, but absent a Logans Run solution,  it will require a great deal of socialism as our population bubble deflates. 

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1 hour ago, Lark said:

If you desire to meet me in the real world, I’m happy to relieve you of your misapprehensions.   Either sailing or sparring work for me (another hobby is martial arts).     I fear BOB may be falsely maligned for racism, since the photo was taken he’s suffered many footprints and looks like he’s in blackface.  Ironically BOB’s gi shirt was discounted to $5 as a novelty item.   I assure you despite being a Trump’s smartest supporter, he doesn’t have a racist bone in his plastic body,   

35A90AF4-11DD-4DDA-AAA2-70B3D39D0DFA.jpeg

post of the day

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2 hours ago, Rat's ass said:

Fake liberal douchebags are like that. :rolleyes:  

If he's a fake liberal douchebag, you should be OK with that.  Right?  Since then he wouldn't be a real liberal or douchebag.  Or did you skip right past logic when people attempted to educate you?

By the way, douchebags had a very useful function, although not seen much these days.  They helped reduce the birthrate of fake liberals among other benefits.  But those "conservatives" with limited mental capacity seem to think there is something "dirty" about them.  Or is it just that they deal with feminine hygiene and that is a scary, no-go zone for right-wing true believers.

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6 minutes ago, LenP said:

Yes, but absent a Logans Run solution,  it will require a great deal of socialism as our population bubble deflates. 

Yeah the Ponzi Scheme of SS will have to be fixed finally. 

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The change in demographics will be a greater thing than a lot of political posturings think.  It, and climate change, will bring about rapid change in society.  We are all getting older.  Even with the extension of life expectancy, the baby boomers have only another 20 years.  It is a large population bubble.  At the moment, most of the disposable income in the US is held by those over 65.  This will come down to the "inheritance generation" as people die, of which there are a lot fewer.  In the times of the Black Death, the number of workers available in England was halved.  Because the channel acted like a moat, there wasn't an easy replacement of cheap labour like there was in Europe.  Migration in Europe after the Black Death was significant as it could move about easily for the best jobs.  We can contrast the situation of labour at the time.  We have many of our autonomies (I hate the word "freedom" as it implies lack of acknowledgement of responsibilities) due to the Black Death.  A restricted pool of labour holds more bargaining power.   The isolation of the US will of course bring about a much smaller labour pool with a lot of inherited money.  This will change society.  It adds another dimension in that the sperm count of young western males is dropping precipitately. It will be interesting

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31 minutes ago, Laker said:

The change in demographics will be a greater thing than a lot of political posturings think.  It, and climate change, will bring about rapid change in society.  We are all getting older.  Even with the extension of life expectancy, the baby boomers have only another 20 years.  It is a large population bubble.  At the moment, most of the disposable income in the US is held by those over 65.  This will come down to the "inheritance generation" as people die, of which there are a lot fewer.  In the times of the Black Death, the number of workers available in England was halved.  Because the channel acted like a moat, there wasn't an easy replacement of cheap labour like there was in Europe.  Migration in Europe after the Black Death was significant as it could move about easily for the best jobs.  We can contrast the situation of labour at the time.  We have many of our autonomies (I hate the word "freedom" as it implies lack of acknowledgement of responsibilities) due to the Black Death.  A restricted pool of labour holds more bargaining power.   The isolation of the US will of course bring about a much smaller labour pool with a lot of inherited money.  This will change society.  It adds another dimension in that the sperm count of young western males is dropping precipitately. It will be interesting

The inheritance generation perspective is interesting. Fewer lucky people running around with too much money. 

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To get back on topic, declining fertility is, in the long run, a good thing since fewer people mean l

1 hour ago, Movable Ballast said:

Personally I don't see this as a bad thing. 

We can produce everything we need with far fewer people and fewer mouths to feed.

Fewer people = less environmental impact from human activity. 

I think it is one of those  '... on the other hand...' things. The world would be a better place with a billion or two fewer people on it and I can that happening with a century or so. It is a problem of the transition that is difficult. Japan was the first country to experience this with Russia and a few Eastern European countries close behind. China is now realizing that the One Child Policy was kept in place too long. You need a couple of things for the transition not to be too painful. First is an effective system for supporting (largely financially and medically) huge numbers of old people. Second a willingness to accept large numbers of immigrants to provide the youngish work force you are no longer producing. Actually getting immigrants in their twenties or early thirties is not a bad idea since you avoid the costs of producing and educating these folks. Some countries are doing a better job of using immigrants to maintain the workforce - Canada and Oz being good examples. Some countries have shown little ability (and willingness) to absorb mass immigration - Japan and China are clear examples. The US is still trying to decide with strong opinions on both sides. The next few elections will be interesting in this respect although the real problem will likely not emerge for another 10 years or so. The demographers are only pointing out that it is coming.

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I think the country is overpopulated. I can’t name an exact figure inthink is “the correct number of humans,” but my guess is 10,000,000 humans in North America could be sustainable for the next million years. Maybe that number is ten times too large. 

A general plan to continue to lower the human birth rate and disassemble unnecessary population centers seems like a great long term plan. 

Perhaps in a few hundred years mountain lions, bears, wolves, buffalo, horny toads, forests, prairies, rivers, and the aquifers can start returning to how they were before we humans  infested the place. 

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27 minutes ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

To get back on topic, declining fertility is, in the long run, a good thing since fewer people mean l

I think it is one of those  '... on the other hand...' things. The world would be a better place with a billion or two fewer people on it and I can that happening with a century or so. It is a problem of the transition that is difficult. Japan was the first country to experience this with Russia and a few Eastern European countries close behind. China is now realizing that the One Child Policy was kept in place too long. You need a couple of things for the transition not to be too painful. First is an effective system for supporting (largely financially and medically) huge numbers of old people. Second a willingness to accept large numbers of immigrants to provide the youngish work force you are no longer producing. Actually getting immigrants in their twenties or early thirties is not a bad idea since you avoid the costs of producing and educating these folks. Some countries are doing a better job of using immigrants to maintain the workforce - Canada and Oz being good examples. Some countries have shown little ability (and willingness) to absorb mass immigration - Japan and China are clear examples. The US is still trying to decide with strong opinions on both sides. The next few elections will be interesting in this respect although the real problem will likely not emerge for another 10 years or so. The demographers are only pointing out that it is coming.

Agreed, however care for the elderly will only be a 1st world problem. Globally the old die much younger at a much lower cost. Eventually (not too far off) Healthcare costs will be doled out on a "value to society" basis. Spending $300k to get granny another 2 years will be limited to the VERY rich as single payer system decline to pay for such services when that money could serve 100 young people. This current healthcare kabal won't last for ever, it can't.   

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Y'all are overthinking the whole demographics/sustainability/stability thing.  Hester Charlatain found out the answer long ago...

 

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51 minutes ago, Gouvernail said:

I think the country is overpopulated. I can’t name an exact figure inthink is “the correct number of humans,” but my guess is 10,000,000 humans in North America could be sustainable for the next million years. Maybe that number is ten times too large. 

A general plan to continue to lower the human birth rate and disassemble unnecessary population centers seems like a great long term plan. 

Perhaps in a few hundred years mountain lions, bears, wolves, buffalo, horny toads, forests, prairies, rivers, and the aquifers can start returning to how they were before we humans  infested the place. 

Humans may not be the problem.  Technologically enhanced humans seem to be the free-roaming cancer cells that could do us in. 

From what I've read, the Pre-Columbian (pre-disease) estimate for North America was 10,000,000 to 20,000,000.  For the "Americas) it may have been roughly 60,000,000.  Mostly from the Mississippi watershed and the SW US down through Central America down the west coast of South America down into Peru.  That population seems to have been stable and to be within the carrying capacity of the land.

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6 hours ago, Rat's ass said:

 

Good point, Immigration should focus exclusively on skin color and ethnicity. USG needs to give priority to africans to compensate for the high abortion rate among African americans. Caucasian and hispanic not so much.

 

Straw-Man.jpg.e389fad38e5c5ef876cf709c34708fcb.jpg

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8 hours ago, cmilliken said:

As I've said before,  this is one of the reasons I'd like to increase legal immigration,  particularly from east Africa -  Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia.  

There's white people there?

When Trump was talking about increasing legal immigration he was talking about Scandinavia.

The problem is not *immigration* per se. It's who is immigrating.

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14 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

There's white people there?

When Trump was talking about increasing legal immigration he was talking about Scandinavia.

The problem is not *immigration* per se. It's who is immigrating.

I'm sure there's some white people there but i'm personally not concerned about ethnicity - i'm concerned about age and about a basic understanding of western culture and exposure to the language to facilitate the assimilation.

I'd also like to see a guest worker visa program so migrants who come for seasonal jobs can go home as they wish and come back next year assuming they've not gotten into any trouble.

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2 minutes ago, cmilliken said:

I'm sure there's some white people there but i'm personally not concerned about ethnicity - i'm concerned about age and about a basic understanding of western culture and exposure to the language to facilitate the assimilation.

I'd also like to see a guest worker visa program so migrants who come for seasonal jobs can go home as they wish and come back next year assuming they've not gotten into any trouble.

I'm not concerned about the ethnicity either. But I'm not part of the group screaming about building a wall to keep out the caravans of diseased Mexican rapists.

The people making immigration a "crisis" are. It's not because the Swedish Bikini Team is trying to immigrate here.

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20 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

I'm not concerned about the ethnicity either. But I'm not part of the group screaming about building a wall to keep out the caravans of diseased Mexican rapists.

Then why ask me if there are white people there?  I'm a fan of maximum mobility and am probably left of traditional democrats on that issue.

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23 minutes ago, cmilliken said:
43 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:

I'm not concerned about the ethnicity either. But I'm not part of the group screaming about building a wall to keep out the caravans of diseased Mexican rapists.

Then why ask me if there are white people there?  I'm a fan of maximum mobility and am probably left of traditional democrats on that issue.

Sorry, it was more of a rhetorical question, not directed at you.

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5 hours ago, Movable Ballast said:

Agreed, however care for the elderly will only be a 1st world problem. Globally the old die much younger at a much lower cost. Eventually (not too far off) Healthcare costs will be doled out on a "value to society" basis. Spending $300k to get granny another 2 years will be limited to the VERY rich as single payer system decline to pay for such services when that money could serve 100 young people. This current healthcare kabal won't last for ever, it can't.   

You've (we've) also the problem of who is going to care for those aging boomers. Are all our grandchildren going to want to go into the meaningful, gratifying and lucrative age care field?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No.

Immigration is the only way.and furthermore from brown skinned countries.get used to the idea. 

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41 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

You've (we've) also the problem of who is going to care for those aging boomers. Are all our grandchildren going to want to go into the meaningful, gratifying and lucrative age care field?

Lot of Filipinas will come & do it though. I had dinner with a couple earlier this week. They're on track for Australian citizenship.

The US attitudes to legal immigration are really funny if you like watching own-goals.

FKT

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49 minutes ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

Lot of Filipinas will come & do it though. I had dinner with a couple earlier this week. They're on track for Australian citizenship.

The US attitudes to legal immigration are really funny if you like watching own-goals.

FKT

You might be surprised at how many Filipinos work in the aged care sector, plus Indians, sri lankans Iranians and iraqis somalis and Ethiopians. They outnumber white Australians by about 3 to 1 in my recent experiences..same in childcare and a lot in nursing.

These jobs are not any more low skilled than many others, most need at least cert IV..I think they care more.  Probably cultural.

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39 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

You might be surprised at how many Filipinos work in the aged care sector, plus Indians, sri lankans Iranians and iraqis somalis and Ethiopians.

Considering that one of my women teaches those courses - not.

FKT

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soaring ambient pollution levels.

ecological murder, slow suicide.

maybe we'll wake up when the shit truly hits the fan.

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Americans watch too much anal porn. Doing it in the butt won't make babies.

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Considering the path the USA has been on for the past few years a non-replacement level birth rate would seem to be exactly what's needed.

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14 hours ago, Happy said:

Americans watch too much anal porn. Doing it in the butt won't make babies.

it will if it's DP.

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