Grande Mastere Dreade

boy is this girl in for a surprise..

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20 minutes ago, duncan (the other one) said:

* Germany - shares highest power prices in Europe (with Denmark). They've gone up more than 400% since 2009. What could possibly be the primary cause of that?

Primary cause: Government assisted "Making money" by using the removal of nuclear energy agreement as an selling point. Also nuclear generated energy was unrealistically cheap since the cost for final storage of waste is still unknown and the power companies only had to pay a comparable small amount to the government for the search of a solution for that problem. Thus they still could earn money while offering low prices.

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1 hour ago, duncan (the other one) said:

bullshit.

The easiest (and best / most moral) way is to raise their income.  Their birth rate will fall correspondingly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility

TFR_vs_PPP_2015.png

 

Yet another thing that Malthus got wrong.

 

 

 

Yes and no. Raising their income and raising the social+legal standing of women has all kinds of good effects including falling birthrates, besides for being a good thing to do just because it is. The down side is the CO2 per person could possibly climb a lot faster than the number of people declines. Did anyone think China would be a huge market for automobiles 20 or 30 years ago? Also what stops any suddenly organized country that has decided to quit having civil wars to want to be the next China? We had our turn in the 19th century with no-holds-barred industrialization, became the top dog, and THEN started worrying about the environment. China had their turn just recently and are only now trying to maybe not choke themselves to death. They got very rich in the process.

What is to stop any other country from wanting their shot at that? Or look to Brazil - we cleared the shit out of our old growth forests and now Brazil doesn't get shot at clear cutting the entire Amazon?

My fear is we will get down to either a climate disaster or a government disaster with making people do things they really don't want to do. Or maybe both at once :(

 

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1 hour ago, duncan (the other one) said:

bullshit.

The easiest (and best / most moral) way is to raise their income.  Their birth rate will fall correspondingly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility

TFR_vs_PPP_2015.png

 

Yet another thing that Malthus got wrong.

 

 

 

I agree with you that raising their income will lower birth rates. Standard human behaviour as things get better. However as their incomes rise so does their consumption. Cars, air cons, imported goods, crap from China. They will follow in our footsteps at an ever increasing rate. Power plants will be needed to drive all the shit they want and they will not be too bothered on the cleanliness of them. Clean costs lots of money they would rather spend on cars and TVs. 

So the moral dilemma is raise income and drop population but raise CO2 outputs drastically. In reality though, it is not really our dilemma, it will be up to them how they wish to proceed. 

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Things could get more interesting depending on the track this minor disturbance takes...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system located more than 300 miles south of Halifax,
Nova Scotia, continues to produce an area of thunderstorms east of
the center.  Significant development of this low is unlikely as it
moves eastward at 15 to 20 mph, away from the United States and
Canada.  Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php .
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

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21 hours ago, jb5 said:

 

One of the few that I follow on Twitter. 

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On 8/19/2019 at 12:43 PM, LB 15 said:

This thread needs graphs.

Here you go

 

K26ZRQ36RQ7TVF25BKJIHCNNSY.png

 

 

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11 hours ago, Gissie said:

I agree with you that raising their income will lower birth rates. Standard human behaviour as things get better. However as their incomes rise so does their consumption. Cars, air cons, imported goods, crap from China. They will follow in our footsteps at an ever increasing rate. Power plants will be needed to drive all the shit they want and they will not be too bothered on the cleanliness of them. Clean costs lots of money they would rather spend on cars and TVs. 

So the moral dilemma is raise income and drop population but raise CO2 outputs drastically. In reality though, it is not really our dilemma, it will be up to them how they wish to proceed. 

The reality is that we have only achieved our “first” world lifestyle and standard of living from the colonisation, exploitation and abuse of “third” world countries, including the use of slavery and genocide.

Now that we have run out of “third” world countries to exploit and fuck up, we have nowhere else to go.... Nor are there enough sustainable resources for the “third” world to be “elevated” to our standards, so they really don’t have a choice as to “how they wish to proceed”.

And nor do we..... Our current rates of consumption and pollution are already unsustainable, and the credo of perpetual economic growth, in a finite world, is the ultimate pyramid/ponzi scheme.

The slower we adjust now, the worse the inevitable downfall later....

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17 minutes ago, Sidecar said:

The reality is that we have only achieved our “first” world lifestyle and standard of living from the colonisation, exploitation and abuse of “third” world countries, including the use of slavery and genocide.

Now that we have run out of “third” world countries to exploit and fuck up, we have nowhere else to go.... Nor are there enough sustainable resources for the “third” world to be “elevated” to our standards, so they really don’t have a choice as to “how they wish to proceed”.

And nor do we..... Our current rates of consumption and pollution are already unsustainable, and pursuing perpetual economic growth, in a finite world, is the ultimate pyramid/ponzi scheme.

The slower we adjust now, the worse the inevitable downfall later....

 

 

As Suharto, then the president of Indonesia told the US State Department and the World Bank when they conditioned their loans with demands that they put environmental controls on new energy projects, "Why should we be forced to pay to limit our pollution when your country got wealthy by polluting the planet first.  Now it's our turn."

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Sidecar said:

The reality is that we have only achieved our “first” world lifestyle and standard of living from the colonisation, exploitation and abuse of “third” world countries, including the use of slavery and genocide.

Now that we have run out of “third” world countries to exploit and fuck up, we have nowhere else to go.... Nor are there enough sustainable resources for the “third” world to be “elevated” to our standards, so they really don’t have a choice as to “how they wish to proceed”.

And nor do we..... Our current rates of consumption and pollution are already unsustainable, and the credo of perpetual economic growth, in a finite world, is the ultimate pyramid/ponzi scheme.

The slower we adjust now, the worse the inevitable downfall later....

what a lot of bullshit.

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1 minute ago, duncan (the other one) said:

what a lot of bullshit.

Thank you for your intelligent informative comment.

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I'm not reading this whole thread, but anyone outraged by the hypocrisy of it being a carbon boat should remember that Boris didn't have this boat built, so technically it's being repurposed.  The sails however, not so great...  It still pales in comparison to Ben Ainsley's 11th hour America's Cup sponsor.

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19 minutes ago, Sidecar said:
21 minutes ago, duncan (the other one) said:

what a lot of bullshit.

Thank you for your intelligent informative comment.

You reallize suttelltey escappes us?                                      :)

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8 hours ago, DryArmour said:

Things could get more interesting depending on the track this minor disturbance takes...


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system located more than 300 miles south of Halifax,
Nova Scotia, continues to produce an area of thunderstorms east of
the center.  Significant development of this low is unlikely as it
moves eastward at 15 to 20 mph, away from the United States and
Canada.  Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php .
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Thanks, Mark. That system looks like it's wanting to spin up.  Now 40% chance of cyclone formation in 48hrs, and it's right in front of them heading east at 15-20 knots.

I see they gybed away to the SW earlier today.   If I was them I'd be putting in some major miles away from that thing.  You don't want 40 knots on the nose.

But I don't have the GRIBs or much other data.  They are experts, so let's hope they're reading this one right.

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1 hour ago, Sidecar said:

The reality is that we have only achieved our “first” world lifestyle and standard of living from the colonisation, exploitation and abuse of “third” world countries, including the use of slavery and genocide.

Now that we have run out of “third” world countries to exploit and fuck up, we have nowhere else to go.... Nor are there enough sustainable resources for the “third” world to be “elevated” to our standards, so they really don’t have a choice as to “how they wish to proceed”.

And nor do we..... Our current rates of consumption and pollution are already unsustainable, and the credo of perpetual economic growth, in a finite world, is the ultimate pyramid/ponzi scheme.

The slower we adjust now, the worse the inevitable downfall later....

Though is this not the history of all great empires/civilizations/nations?  The Ming Dynasty, the Egyptian Pharaohs, The Mayans, The Greeks, The Romans, The Ottoman Turks, The British, and I'm sure a good half dozen or more I've forgot to include?  You may not like it, but that does seem to be the nature of mankind.  At least since recorded history.  I'd be willing to bet that 1000 years into the future, America is no longer the worlds  preeminent superpower, and one of those "exploited" third world countries is...

I may well be wrong, and the trend line might change, but that's not what the history of mankind tells us.

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1 hour ago, P_Wop said:

Thanks, Mark. That system looks like it's wanting to spin up.  Now 40% chance of cyclone formation in 48hrs, and it's right in front of them heading east at 15-20 knots.

I see they gybed away to the SW earlier today.   If I was them I'd be putting in some major miles away from that thing.  You don't want 40 knots on the nose.

But I don't have the GRIBs or much other data.  They are experts, so let's hope they're reading this one right.

This is now Tropical Storm Chantal.  600 miles away, going East, moving right at them at 15-20 knots.

So what do you do?  Head North across the dangerous front of it and hope you get the South Easterlies?  Or get out of Dodge as fast as you can to the South and Southwest?

This is looking a little bit "iffy," folks.

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Thanks for the weather updates and a big fuck you to those who whine about PA and choose to take their dumps in SA.  HTFU and stop the crapping on people who are trying to make a difference. I am a first class asshole but limit it to PA. Join in or STFU.

Here is hoping the weather only makes her adventure more memorable.

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18 minutes ago, P_Wop said:

This is now Tropical Storm Chantal.  600 miles away, going East, moving right at them at 15-20 knots.

So what do you do?  Head North across the dangerous front of it and hope you get the South Easterlies?  Or get out of Dodge as fast as you can to the South and Southwest?

This is looking a little bit "iffy," folks.

Picture or it isn't true!   Are you sure your computer date is correct?

Try this Windy tracker link, instead of the Boris Hermann one:

https://www.windy.com/track-team-malizia-and-greta-on-their-journey-across-the-atlantic?41.179,-35.068,4

Or go to the Windy app, and look at the Extreme forecast. 

 

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the small low pressure
area located more than 450 miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia,
has acquired a well-defined circulation and is producing tropical-
storm-force winds.  As a result, advisories on Tropical Storm
Chantal will be initiated at 11 PM AST (0300 UTC).  This system is
moving eastward at 15 to 20 mph across the open north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php .

Forecaster Brown

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It looks like they're trying to go North of it.  A tough call, but perhaps better than the other way.

In any event she will get what she came for.  Hopefully not too much.

[Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]

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Thanks for all the pics Wop, it's true, and by now all over the interweb. Mark and you were quick to spot that, well done. Windy's GFS model still showing very little, and the EC model fuck all. Not that unusual, actually.

Boris/Malizia should have spotted it themselves or through a land based weather router, but as you said, were can they go? They might have to toughen it out at some point, at least for a while as it doesn't appear to be a big system.

Interesting, and certainly wish them good luck. Will be good for publicity though, you know, global warming brings tropical storm in North Atlantic!

 

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3 minutes ago, Fiji Bitter said:

Thanks for all the pics Wop, it's true, and by now all over the interweb. Mark and you were quick to spot that, well done. Windy's GFS model still showing very little, and the EC model fuck all. Not that unusual, actually.

Boris/Malizia should have spotted it themselves or through a land based weather router, but as you said, were can they go? They might have to toughen it out at some point, at least for a while as it doesn't appear to be a big system.

Interesting, and certainly wish them good luck. Will be good for publicity though, you know, global warming brings tropical storm in North Atlantic!

Yes, this sort of system in Late August can do all sorts of unpredictable things. 

Since it's moving East so quickly, I think they'll be heading North or Northwest to get over the top.  It will be full on racing velocity to get up there, no gentle cruise.  It will be wet, windy, bumpy and damn cold in the end.  An "Is this girl in for a surprise" indeed!

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1 hour ago, DryArmour said:

Seasickness anyone?

 

Yeah, it's not the rocking it's the rolling and could be a bunch of that.  This will make her either a tough die hard sailor or a permanent land lubber. 

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Quote

Here is hoping the weather only makes her adventure more memorable.

What's the over/under of her taking a plane home?

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1 minute ago, solosailor said:

What's the over/under of her taking a plane home?

My guess is that she's made of tough stuff.  She gets a bit of a storm experience under her belt, something to talk and reminisce about for years (like most of us have done), and by the time she lands in the US she's ready to do it again!

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1 minute ago, solosailor said:

What's the over/under of her taking a plane home?

Whether or you believe in her cause or not, I don’t think her tenacity is up for question. She has repeatedly demonstrated if she believes in something she will follow it through despite significant personal discomfort.

If she has the opportunity to return without flying, I would expect her to do that regardless of how unpleasant her current voyage ends up being.

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2 minutes ago, KC375 said:

Whether or you believe in her cause or not, I don’t think her tenacity is up for question. She has repeatedly demonstrated if she believes in something she will follow it through despite significant personal discomfort.

 

If she has the opportunity to return without flying, I would expect her to do that regardless of how unpleasant her current voyage ends up being.

 

Ditto.  And youthfulness helps.  I remember my first real heavy weather experience at about 12 - and it was only on the Chesapeake.  Fear turned into deathly seasickness...when we lost a shroud at the masthead I silently thanked God because it cut short the full Bay transit.  For 24 hours wanted no more of sailing on open water, but by the next weekend was back at it with a good story.

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definitely headed north of it-

image.png.38c0bbce41cdad9a1b37bd65238c749b.png

at least 24 hours ago it looked like smooth sailing

"Day 7. About halfway across the Atlantic Ocean. Very pleasant conditions."

Image may contain: 1 person, ocean, sky, outdoor, water and nature

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3 minutes ago, jo forthan said:

hmmmm... from the website that you proffer:

About Us

Climate Change Dispatch (CCD) is a science and environmental news site showing its visitors the facts behind the theory of global warming, which are not being told by the mainstream media and the climate change zealots.

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It's a science news site showing its visitors the facts behind the theory of sailing anarchy, which are not being told by the mainstream media and Jack Daniels zealots

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3 minutes ago, jo forthan said:

science news site

with articles like Great Global Warming Hoax.  Copernicus is spinning in his grave.

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1 hour ago, KC375 said:

 

If she has the opportunity to return without flying, I would expect her to do that regardless of how unpleasant her current voyage ends up being.

 

Unpleasant? Are you following the same voyage I am? 

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23 minutes ago, jhc said:

Unpleasant? Are you following the same voyage I am? 

With a tropical cyclone taking aim at them just 400 miles away at 17 knots, and they're heading North at 10 knots to get out of the way?  C'mon, are you following the same thread I am?

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3 minutes ago, P_Wop said:

With a tropical cyclone taking aim at them just 400 miles away at 17 knots, and they're heading North at 10 knots to get out of the way?  C'mon, are you following the same thread I am?

Oh, you're watching Perfect Storm again! Put down the remote, it's not going to end well.

I recon Malizia will easily pass north of Chantal, then have a ripping run into NY.

 

 

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Boris doesn't seem too worried:

"Of course we are aware of the storm Chantal, but due to the colder water up North it will not become a critical storm for us, and rather give us the necessary propulsion to go West."

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9 minutes ago, jhc said:

Oh, you're watching Perfect Storm again! Put down the remote, it's not going to end well.

I recon Malizia will easily pass north of Chantal, then have a ripping run into NY.

I hope you're right.

So I'll pick up the remote and watch French toast on a yacht again. More my speed.

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The Perfect Storm weather was caused by an "extra" tropical storm interacting with a massive cold front, and low pressure system. Not unlike the two weather features that Malizia will encounter on their voyage. Timing is everything however. Also, access to modern weather forecasting, and a boat that is fast enough to route out of dangerous conditions.

That said, I am a weather observer, and am very interested that a tropical depression has formed north of 40 degrees latitude. 

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8 hours ago, Israel Hands said:

hmmmm... from the website that you proffer:

About Us

Climate Change Dispatch (CCD) is a science and environmental news site showing its visitors the facts behind the theory of global warming, which are not being told by the mainstream media and the climate change zealots.

CCD is a tool of the tool James Taylor, a Director of the Heartland Institute, a Libertarian-for-hire sewer pipe used by Philip Morris, Exxon Mobil, the Kochs, telecom monopolies, school privatizers, and  anyone else wanting to spread corporate talking points & muddy the waters of a given policy debate. Per the Union of Concerned Scientists:

 

Quote

 

While claiming to stand up for “sound science,” the Heartland Institute has routinely spread misinformation about climate science, including deliberate attacks on climate scientists. [37]

Popular outcry forced the Heartland Institute to pull down a controversial billboard that compared supporters of global warming facts to Unabomber Ted Kaczynski [38], bringing an early end to a planned campaign first announced in an essay by Heartland President Joseph Bast, which claimed “… the most prominent advocates of global warming aren’t scientists. They are murderers, tyrants, and madmen.” [39]


 

So, possibly the worst available source for credible information on AGWH science. 

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Thanks, I did not know my post was from the heartland inst.         I don't agree with them                                               Jhc do you know of a similar scenario that was well known some years ago, thank you

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2 hours ago, jo forthan said:

Thanks, I did not know my post was from the heartland inst.         I don't agree with them                                               Jhc do you know of a similar scenario that was well known some years ago, thank you

Oh really, you don't agree with them, but you posted it just the same.

Uh huh.

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On 8/13/2019 at 9:58 PM, Miffy said:

TBF to all those involved - Malizia/Boris/Monaco Yacht Club's entire focus is marketing/publicity anyway so if he's going to have to cross the Atlantic to get to the start line of an IMOCA event, what's the big deal with bringing along a kid and her dad?

Except I don't see any IMOCA event Malizia would be heading for? And according to  https://taz.de/Thunbergs-Segelreise-in-die-USA/!5615733/ it will sail back with a professional crew of five to be flown over to New York. Does anyone here know different?

 

BERLIN taz | Climate activist Greta Thunberg causes more greenhouse gas emissions from her sailing trip from the United Kingdom to the United States than if she had flown. About five employees would sail the yacht back to Europe, said Andreas Kling, spokesman for Thunberg skipper Boris Herrmann, on Thursday the taz.

"Of course, they fly over there, that's no different," says Kling. Herrmann will also take the plane for the return journey. The sailing trip triggers at least six climate-damaging air travel across the Atlantic. If Thunberg had flown with her father, only two would have been necessary to come to New York.

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