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Are you rooting for a recession in order to ensure Trump’s ouster

Are you rooting for a recession to ensure Trump’s ouster  

24 members have voted

  1. 1. Is a recession needed for the greater good?

    • Yes. It may be painful for some in the short run but the benefit of tRump is totally worth it..
    • No. I want Trump gone but not at the cost of a recession.


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24 minutes ago, The Joker said:

Got it we are in a trade war because Trump is the first president to finally stand up to China’s violations.  

And the economic slow down across the world is solely based on those tariffs   

The experts on PA have spoken  

 

Not solely, no. But in good measure yes. The markets crave stability above all things. Trump making wild-ass claims, announcing tariffs then not imposing them, or going after allies and breaking trade agreements do not for the appearance of stability make. Add to that the content of post #5 above, and you have the recipe for a particularly toxic economic soup.

And despite your best efforts, you won't be able to blame anyone but Trump and the GOP this time around. Not with a shred of credibility anyway.

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44 minutes ago, The Joker said:

Got it we are in a trade war because Trump is the first president to finally stand up to China’s violations.  

And the economic slow down across the world is solely based on those tariffs   

The experts on PA have spoken  

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/global-economic-trouble-is-brewing-and-the-trade-war-is-only-part-of-it/ar-AAFNF3x?ocid=spartanntp

 

 

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Look, all you have to do is ask Larry Kudlow what's going on.  With all his PhDs in economics and vast experience handling big economies, he's the man.  Even our president thinks so.

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30 minutes ago, Remodel said:

And despite your best efforts, you won't be able to blame anyone but Trump and the GOP this time around. Not with a shred of credibility anyway.

30% will blame the Democrats no matter what.

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Stunning Day of Economic Gaslighting – Despite All Positive Data, Corporate Media Cheering For Recession…

Posted on August 14, 2019 by sundance

A “negative yield curve“;  a pending “economic recession“.  These are the obtuse and ridiculous proclamations of the Mainstream Corporate Media today.  So let’s take a moment to discuss how stunningly -intentionally- disconnected they are.

Always remember, there are trillions of dollars at stake; and these media entities have a vested interest in maintaining the Wall Street position, adverse to Main Street USA.

First the “negative yield curve” aspect; where long-term bond rates (returns on investment) are lower than short-term rates (returns).  As Reuters proclaims:

“A key bond market metric turned negative for the first time since 2007 on Wednesday, sending stocks tumbling”…

reuters-us-recession.jpg?w=640&h=634

I must admit, I actually started laughing out loud when I first read that proclamation. Allow me to introduce a radical concept in economics: “supply and demand” !

 

The long-term borrowing rate for return on investment dropped momentarily lower than the short-term borrowing rate of return on investment because massive numbers of foreign investors were rushing to buy long-term U.S. bonds.   Wait… what?  Yes, a ‘negative yield curve’ is what happens when everyone wants to buy bonds in your long-term economy.

There weren’t enough long-term bonds to fill the demand of those who wanted to purchase them.  Ergo, the return rate of interest dropped because there was no need to have an incentive to sell them…. everyone wants them.

So the yield drops, because the U.S. doesn’t need to incentivize the sale… because everyone is lined up to buy them.  See how that works?

Do lines of people wrapping all around the world trying to get to the U.S.A Bank and buy U.S. treasury bonds sound like the USA economy (underlying the bond) is weak or in trouble?

It’s OK to laugh out loud.

No, really, it’s ok.

Yes, Alice, it’s true.  The financial media would have you believe that customers lined-up around the building to purchase your products means your business is about to close because of a lack of customers.   THAT my friends is the stupidity of it.

The U.S.A economy is so strong, so healthy, and forecast to remain so with such intensity, that everyone wants to purchase dollars because it is the world’s highest predicted rate of return for investment….. And somehow the media can spin that into a bad thing.

No, really.  That’s the narrative of today.

Now let’s look at the second stupid “A looming recession“:

cnn-tweet-recession.jpg?w=640&h=569

First, a “recession” is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.  That’s how you define a recession.  So to start a recession you need need one quarter of negative GDP growth right?  Well, duh, it hasn’t happened, and there is not a single economist who is predicting a negative Third Quarter growth rate (July, Aug, Sept., ’19).

First Quarter GDP growth was 3.1%. [Beating all expectations] Second Quarter GDP growth was 2.1%. [Again, beating all expectations]… and somehow the Third Quarter is suddenly going to be negative growth?   It’s OK to laugh again.

So how does CNN et al  “warn of a looming recession” when there’s not a single economist forecasting a negative GDP for the third quarter?   Well, they make shit up that’s how.

Think about it…. if the economy was contracting, people would not be getting hired right?  Employers would be laying people off right?  Businesses would be selling off assets right?  Wages would be dropping right?

Do you see any of these things happening?

No?  Why not?

Because it ain’t happening, that’s what !!!

The U.S. economy is not shrinking.  Main Street is strong, and getting stronger.

Go back to point #1, would the world be rushing to buy dollars if the U.S. economy was on the precipice of collapse?  Think about it.

Now, that said, there are some economies that are shrinking; and they all have something in common.  The manufacturing export dependent nations are in trouble because President Trump is starting to limit their access to their most desired customers, the USA. And President Trump is telling companies that operate in those export nations that it would be in their best interests to come to the United States to make their goods.

Germany, the economic engine for the EU, is a manufacturing export dependent nation, and it is contracting.  China is a manufacturing export dependent nation and their manufacturing is contracting.  But the U.S. is strong, because we are not dependent on exports.  In fact the U.S. consumes more than 80 percent of what we produce; we are a self-sustaining economy.

Our U.S. economic strength is why Asian and European investors are rushing to buy dollars (US Bonds); and why the U.S. treasury doesn’t need to provide high yield rates as incentives to buy them (hence the negative yield curve).

Stop me when any of the U.S. economic data has even the slightest implication of a slowdown, or “looming recession”.

Our last jobs report showed 164,000 new jobs created in July (yeah, like two weeks ago).  In addition 363,000 people moved from part-time to full-time employment… does that sound like a weak economic outcome?  Current blue-collar wage growth is in excess of 3.4%, and current overall U.S. worker income is growing at a rate exceeding 5.4%.

Does any of that sound like what you see just before a “looming recession”?

wage-growth-bea-release-july-30-2019.jpg(BEA Data Source – Link)

Every actual data result exceeds expectations.

Every measurable KPI in the U.S. economy beats every forecast.

Show me data that supports this “looming recession” claim.  Guess what; you can’t because it is a manufactured bucket of nonsense.  Abject stupidity created in the basement of media narrative engineers and pushed into the U.S. mainstream talking points in an effort to create something that doesn’t exist.   You know the word for that? “Gaslighting”!

Why?

Why are the financial pundits doing this?

Because the engine for the U.S. economy is the U.S. consumer.  The Wall St./Media pundit goal is to erode consumer confidence, instill fear, and hopefully get people to sit on those high wages…. thereby creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

This my friends is the battle behind Wall Street -vs- Main Street.

There are trillions of dollars at stake.

 

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/08/14/stunning-day-of-economic-gaslighting-despite-all-positive-data-corporate-media-cheering-for-recession/

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2 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

30% will blame the Democrats no matter what.

This is how dictators come to be.

I TRIED to make America Great Again, but I could not do it. The cabal of deep state government workers, Clinton supporters, and the lying press have hidden behind the Constitution for all these 4 years sabotaging America at every turn and telling lie after lie to dupe the gullible into blaming me.

Well let me tell you this,  while the Democrats and their radical leftist allies work behind the scenes to make this recession worse I will NOT STAND BY. Staring today by executive order we are going to round up these parasites and put them in jail. I will never rest until America is Great Again!

national-socialism-nazism-nuremberg-rall

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2 hours ago, Jules said:

Those who have followed the yield curve say when the curve is inverted, as it is now, a recession always follows.  History says that happens 10-18 months after the yield curve inverts. 

I can't even say I enjoyed economics in college, except maybe the math part of it.  I'm just repeating what economists say.

I quite enjoyed my Econ curriculum,, including the math, but I knew even then that it all rested on a bogus assumption, that humans were “rational” actors. The latest proof? Trump.

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2 hours ago, Remodel said:

And despite your best efforts, you won't be able to blame anyone but Trump and the GOP this time around. Not with a shred of credibility anyway.

Oh you just watch.  Foxy News and other Good American sources like InfoWars and the like will be pumping out the story lines and we will have an entirely new roster of names here to regurgitate them for us.  

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2 hours ago, Raz'r said:

I quite enjoyed my Econ curriculum,, including the math, but I knew even then that it all rested on a bogus assumption, that humans were “rational” actors. The latest proof? Trump.

Whose inability to accept anything but praise makes the U.S. highly vulnerable.  Trump is our Trojan horse.

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@shubrook You ignore several glaring facts... record debt and deficits, the yield curve IS a big deal, capital investment is dropping and the GLOBAL economy slowing.  Also, your "above expectation" GDP is declining.  (And didn't Trump promise 4 and 5% GDP growth)  Trump is the one who will end the longest expansion in history.

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When an economy prints a lot of money and it ends up in the hands of a few, there is a glut of capital.  If it has no where to go in a productive way, it goes to raising the price of such things as high end real estate, art, collector guitars and collector cars.  Notice that none of these are in the inflation basket except some of the aspects of the real estate market.  Productivity increases are more important than increases in GDP and they are not the same.  The incredible growth of China and the Asian Tigers had a great effect on the US.  Their growth hid a lot of the problems with the US economy at the time because they were so closely associated with the US dollar in the early days.  Then came 2008.  So we now have this concentration of capital with really no where to go that is effective.  Productivity in the US economy is tanking.  All those dollars Trump gave to pissers have not come down to the pissees and certainly not to the extent that it seeds the increase in productivity that would allow for the increases in GDP being sought.  The fact that that 1965 Gibson Les Paul just went for $50K is just an indication that they had no other place to put their money, but don't expect it to do anything for the GDP and the general good of the common man.  I, personally, am not even in the market.

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Even worse. Productivity per person is still dropping while more and more money is getting printed.  The recession thing can be best seen in the "reset" on the jobs market.  

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To quote the queen of basementless pizza joints: “What differences does it make.”

If there is a recession before the election Trump will blame everyone and everything but shun any responsibility.  Hell he might even claim that it was due to sunspot activity.

The MAGA types will give him a pass as they give him one on everything else.  

The question is are there enough voters who didn’t vote last time, are undecided, or voted for him in 2016 but grudgingly so who will vote for the Dem in the face of a Trump recession.

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So Pence just came out saying we should be happy with some short term economic pain so we can sort things out with China.  How is that any different from wishing for a recession so Trump gets voted out?  Either attitude comes with a recession as a means to an end.

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1 hour ago, jerseyguy said:

To quote the queen of basementless pizza joints: “What differences does it make.”

If there is a recession before the election Trump will blame everyone and everything but shun any responsibility.  Hell he might even claim that it was due to sunspot activity.

The MAGA types will give him a pass as they give him one on everything else.  

The question is are there enough voters who didn’t vote last time, are undecided, or voted for him in 2016 but grudgingly so who will vote for the Dem in the face of a Trump recession.

I’m thinking that people who used to work for a living, folks like the farmers, might be more able to sniff out the bullshit this time around. 

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9 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

I’m thinking that people who used to work for a living, folks like the farmers, might be more able to sniff out the bullshit this time around. 

Sol:

I don’t disagree with you.  But there is a front page story in today’s NYT about farmers increasing frustration with Trump.  And while I have not read all 1100+ comments, the vast majority of those that I have read indicate that while farmers may moan and groan about Trump, come 2020 they will continues to vote R.  YMMV

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/27/us/politics/trump-farmers-china-trade.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

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13 minutes ago, jerseyguy said:

Sol:

I don’t disagree with you.  But there is a front page story in today’s NYT about farmers increasing frustration with Trump.  And while I have not read all 1100+ comments, the vast majority of those that I have read indicate that while farmers may moan and groan about Trump, come 2020 they will continues to vote R.  YMMV

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/27/us/politics/trump-farmers-china-trade.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

just like A_Guy.  "Trump is awful, but better than any of the commies." Likely A_guy quote

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3 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

just like A_Guy.  "Trump is awful, but better than any of the commies." Likely A_guy quote

Just one of the reasons I have him on ignore

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Of course we get another one soon.  We learn nothing.   My first one out of school was the dot com bust.   Finances were locked up in companies that never made a profit because the world had changed and the old rules didn't apply.   (Uber and Chewie ring a bell?)     Then came crazy bank loans.  My mom's house sold last year.  Nothing down and cash back.   Sure enough, the house is in foreclosure.   Throw in a trade war, labor shortages because of our failure to address immigration, failure to correct our education deficits so most people aren't fit for more then basic labor.   Robots are poised to make that redundant.   Predatory lending for education as well as personal debt makes sure the suckers have no cash reserve.   Meanwhile a failed health system keeps people on disability in order to get medication, and out of the work force.   Now they are deregulating banks again.   Income inequality is equal to the gilded age.   The fundamental problems of the last few crashes have not been corrected, we just keep adding new problems to the list.   The natural resilience of the markets and human ingenuity is not enough.   It is better to correct early and often if we refuse to fix things.   Interest rates are already near zero.    The Billionaire Relief Act and failure to address entitlements has pushed the deficit to record levels despite a good few years.   The normal tools are already deployed.   Does that mean instead of a Bush Recession Trump will get a Hoover Depression?   Better he doesn't get another four years to build up excess steam with more deficit spending.   

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On 8/15/2019 at 8:06 AM, Remodel said:

Not solely, no. But in good measure yes. The markets crave stability above all things. Trump making wild-ass claims, announcing tariffs then not imposing them, or going after allies and breaking trade agreements do not for the appearance of stability make. Add to that the content of post #5 above, and you have the recipe for a particularly toxic economic soup.

And despite your best efforts, you won't be able to blame anyone but Trump and the GOP this time around. Not with a shred of credibility anyway.

Don't confuse The Joke with an idea that has multiple parts.

One thought at a time is all he is capable of grasping.

Actually, seldom even that but......

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1 hour ago, Raz'r said:

just like A_Guy.  "Trump is awful, but better than any of the commies." Likely A_guy quote

Flash - I appreciate the attention, but, I'm not going to go out with you - I'm quite happily married.  

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1 hour ago, jerseyguy said:

Sol:

I don’t disagree with you.  But there is a front page story in today’s NYT about farmers increasing frustration with Trump.  And while I have not read all 1100+ comments, the vast majority of those that I have read indicate that while farmers may moan and groan about Trump, come 2020 they will continues to vote R.  YMMV

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/27/us/politics/trump-farmers-china-trade.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

I’m thinking that phenomenon might be different for those who lost their livelihood as a direct result of his policies. Maybe, maybe not. 

I have said time and again that the guys that are waffling about him now will be voting for him a second time, they are just waiting for Foxy News to tell them the official reason to vote against the enemy of the state party nominee. 

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5 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

I’m thinking that phenomenon might be different for those who lost their livelihood as a direct result of his policies. Maybe, maybe not. 

I have said time and again that the guys that are waffling about him now will be voting for him a second time, they are just waiting for Foxy News to tell them the official reason to vote against the enemy of the state party nominee. 

Whatever the reason turns out to be, we know it will be the Democrats fault.

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16 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

Whatever the reason turns out to be, we know it will be the Democrats fault.

It isn't like we did not know exactly who/what the Pride of the GOP was before the election, and we also knew that Hillary was a democRAT.  We know which is worse.  The same issue will confront voters this time. 

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23 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

I’m thinking that phenomenon might be different for those who lost their livelihood as a direct result of his policies. Maybe, maybe not. 

I have said time and again that the guys that are waffling about him now will be voting for him a second time, they are just waiting for Foxy News to tell them the official reason to vote against the enemy of the state party nominee. 

If someone is not yet repulsed by Trump then there is no help for them.

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2 hours ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

I’m thinking that people who used to work for a living, folks like the farmers, might be more able to sniff out the bullshit this time around. 

There's no shortage of comments stating farmers are poor.  I get that.  But if you are poor, why would you ever vote Republicans?  The poorest states in the U.S. are all Republican run.

What's the attraction the poor have to Republicans?

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2 minutes ago, Jules said:

There's no shortage of comments stating farmers are poor.  I get that.  But if you are poor, why would you ever vote Republicans?  The poorest states in the U.S. are all Republican run.

What's the attraction the poor have to Republicans?

Guy living across the street (refer to him as "cross dresser NASCAR Jeff", yes, there is a story) is on SS disability due to lung issues caused by smoking, and of course still smokes.  He spent his spare money on a big ass "Trump 2020" flag to fly in his front yard.  Something about immigration, strong on defense and a great business man.

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25 minutes ago, Jules said:

There's no shortage of comments stating farmers are poor.  I get that.  But if you are poor, why would you ever vote Republicans?  The poorest states in the U.S. are all Republican run.

What's the attraction the poor have to Republicans?

This goes beyond poor.  Thanks to the tariffs, we are now subsidizing farmers to keep them afloat.  

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8 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

This goes beyond poor.  Thanks to the tariffs, we are now subsidizing farmers to keep them afloat.  

That almost sounds like socialism?

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32 minutes ago, Jules said:

There's no shortage of comments stating farmers are poor.  I get that.  But if you are poor, why would you ever vote Republicans?  The poorest states in the U.S. are all Republican run.

What's the attraction the poor have to Republicans?

You start with guns, god and gays.  Stir in a few brown people.  Add a taste of TV celebrity and cook in a stew of frustration and poverty.  

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1 hour ago, Jules said:

There's no shortage of comments stating farmers are poor.  I get that.  But if you are poor, why would you ever vote Republicans?  The poorest states in the U.S. are all Republican run.

What's the attraction the poor have to Republicans?

Gullibility. The R's have a long history of convincing huge numbers of minimally educated people to vote against their own interests.

It's what they do best. Actually, it's just about the only thing they do well.

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6 hours ago, Raz'r said:

just like A_Guy.  "Trump is awful, but better than any of the commies." Likely A_guy quote

Wow - typed it this morning, had the RWNM (Michael Weiner, err Savage) during a lunch errand and he was lamenting Trump - but finished it up with "Of course I'll vote for him, do you think I'd vote for a communist?"

 

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2 hours ago, SloopJonB said:

Gullibility. The R's have a long history of convincing huge numbers of minimally educated people to vote against their own interests.

It's what they do best. Actually, it's just about the only thing they do well.

 

i-love-the-poorly-educated-donald-j-trump-feb24-2016-27553522.png

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21 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

Wow - typed it this morning, had the RWNM (Michael Weiner, err Savage) during a lunch errand and he was lamenting Trump - but finished it up with "Of course I'll vote for him, do you think I'd vote for a communist?"

 

When I had some long drives during the day I used to listen to Savage and Levin until I just couldn't stand it. "We can't stand 6 more years of Obama, We Can't Stand 6 more Weeks". Obama is bankrupting the country. just for starters.

Those guys lie more than Trump and that ain't easy. Does explain why some of our nutters think the way they do - pure propaganda repeated endlessly.

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5 hours ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

This goes beyond poor.  Thanks to the tariffs, we are now subsidizing farmers to keep them afloat.  

Yeah but we're borrowing that money from China, so it's ok.

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16 minutes ago, another 505 sailor said:

Yeah but we're borrowing that money from China, so it's ok.

Its Jerome Powell’s fault. 

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11 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

Its Jerome Powell’s fault. 

It's Obama's fault. Let's be honest here..... And when it comes to those damned Puerto Ricans and their incessant storms?...... Will this never end?

Yanno.... We can't just keep on sending money to Puerto Rico because they get into these storms. It's time they picked themselves up by their boot straps and moved that damned island into Iowa, or Indiana.....

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3 minutes ago, Mrleft8 said:

It's Obama's fault. Let's be honest here..... And when it comes to those damned Puerto Ricans and their incessant storms?...... Will this never end?

Yanno.... We can't just keep on sending money to Puerto Rico because they get into these storms. It's time they picked themselves up by their boot straps and moved that damned island into Iowa, or Indiana.....

Iowa? Oh yeah, that’s where they have those farm subsidies. Good idea!

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Just now, Sol Rosenberg said:

Iowa? Oh yeah, that’s where they have those farm subsidies. Good idea!

I'm pretty smart for a white guy.....

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6 hours ago, Shootist Jeff said:

To Gaytor's OP question...... I rooting for a recession so I can buy my FL retirement home cheaper.  I'm about to make an offer on it, so they better get the fuck on with the crash soon.  

N, S, E, or W?  

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On 8/14/2019 at 1:24 PM, Fakenews said:

The way I look at it a recession is inevitable.  Let’s kick it off early if it contributes to Trump’s departure.

Probably the only way a Democrat will win the next election 

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23 hours ago, Mrleft8 said:

It's Obama's fault. Let's be honest here..... And when it comes to those damned Puerto Ricans and their incessant storms?...... Will this never end?

Yanno.... We can't just keep on sending money to Puerto Rico because they get into these storms. It's time they picked themselves up by their boot straps and moved that damned island into Iowa, or Indiana.....

Ooops, It looks like a last minute intercession by Obama moved the storm north a bit and it pretty much missed that crazy San Juan Mayor lady and her minions. 

Now Windy has it landing just a smidge north of Marry-a-Dumbo.  Please can everybody on the east coast aim their box fans south to give it a bit of a nudge?  

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14 minutes ago, Left Shift said:

Ooops, It looks like a last minute intercession by Obama moved the storm north a bit and it pretty much missed that crazy San Juan Mayor lady and her minions. 

Now Windy has it landing just a smidge north of Mar-a-Dumbo.  Please can everybody on the east coast aim their box fans south to give it a bit of a nudge?  

If a massive hit on the Florida east coast is inevitable let’s all hope it strikes just south of Mar A Lago and takes out a few real billionaires mansions as well.

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19 hours ago, Shootist Jeff said:

 my FL retirement home

Seems appropriate.

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12 hours ago, Shootist Jeff said:

Why wouldn't it be?

you embody Florida-man, so it clearly is.  Appropriate.

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21 hours ago, Fakenews said:

If a massive hit on the Florida east coast is inevitable let’s all hope it strikes just south of Mar A Lago and takes out a few real billionaires mansions as well.

We can always hope to see FEMA with it's pants around it's ankles trying to service the Miami Beach "we-want-government-off-our-backs" crowd.  Andrew pretty much just hit the poor folks of Homestead.

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