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Jules

Is Uncle Joe Slipping?

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A new Monmouth poll shows Bernie and Liz at 20% and Uncle Joe at 19%.  This is not good news for the DNC, CNN or MSNBC.  If Uncle Joe loses his Flavor of the Month status, who will they turn to in order to protect corporate Democrats and the corporate media?

 

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If you combine the progressive split, Uncle Joe gets beat up pretty well.  Just hope they get it all sorted out before the primaries so the Dems don't end up with Joe as a candidate.  He really needs to retire and just start every sentence with "back in my day".  Worked for me.

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The Young Turks said Joe won't make it to Iowa.  When Joe first jumped into the race I told my SO he will fizzle out because he doesn't have any depth.  So I am kind of in agreement with the not making it to Iowa thing.

If Joe drops out and supports Harris, I think she could keep the DNC and other corporatists happy.  What I can't see is the DNC jumping on the progressive bandwagon.  They didn't budge an inch after Hillary lost.  Couldn't walk away from the money. 

Bernie is definitely out.  They hate him.  Warren?  Maybe, if she could just lose some of that Bernie stink.  Mayor Pete would do just fine, if they could just get him cured of you-know-what.  Maybe they could get that young Kennedy and bring back the good old days.

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16 minutes ago, Jules said:

The Young Turks said Joe won't make it to Iowa.  When Joe first jumped into the race I told my SO he will fizzle out because he doesn't have any depth.  So I am kind of in agreement with the not making it to Iowa thing.

If Joe drops out and supports Harris, I think she could keep the DNC and other corporatists happy.  What I can't see is the DNC jumping on the progressive bandwagon.  They didn't budge an inch after Hillary lost.  Couldn't walk away from the money. 

Bernie is definitely out.  They hate him.  Warren?  Maybe, if she could just lose some of that Bernie stink.  Mayor Pete would do just fine, if they could just get him cured of you-know-what.  Maybe they could get that young Kennedy and bring back the good old days.

this guy is TYT. Just sayin...

 

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54 minutes ago, Jules said:

A new Monmouth poll shows Bernie and Liz at 20% and Uncle Joe at 19%.  This is not good news for the DNC, CNN or MSNBC.  If Uncle Joe loses his Flavor of the Month status, who will they turn to in order to protect corporate Democrats and the corporate media?

 

One day out and it's wrong... you guys ever heard of an outlier... 

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If y'all didn't learn something about polls in the last general election, then you were probably busy paying attention to your belly button.

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All you folks clamoring for anyone but Joe should know that he is the best chance to beat Trump. You have no business bitching about four more years of Trump if you nominate someone who can't carry the rust belt states. 

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16 minutes ago, LenP said:

All you folks clamoring for anyone but Joe should know that he is the best chance to beat Trump. You have no business bitching about four more years of Trump if you nominate someone who can't carry the rust belt states. 

I agree, Joe isn't my first choice, but he is the best choice to take back the country.

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Crap!  The smart play is Biden and Warren team up as 1 and 2 on a ticket.  Then the primaries are moot.  

 

The bad bad news is that they are exactly what this country does not need. Could actually make Donnie look centrist.     Unless he goes down, but the odds are against that. 

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It's early yet.... Give it time to ripen. We all know there's more low hanging fruit to loop around Trump's neck, but it's way too early for that.....

 Given the correct circumstances, I can't see any Democrat losing to Trump this time, even Tom Steyer..... But we have Nixon, Reagan, and Dubya to prove that the unelectable can be re-elected.

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32 minutes ago, badlatitude said:

I agree, Joe isn't my first choice, but he is the best choice to take back the country.

If Joe makes it out of the primaries, I think he is the only current Dem candidate that Trump will totally chew up and spit out in short order.  Joe will assure 4 more years of Trump.  No wonder the trumpsters support him!

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2 hours ago, bridhb said:

If you combine the progressive split, Uncle Joe gets beat up pretty well.  Just hope they get it all sorted out before the primaries so the Dems don't end up with Joe as a candidate.  He really needs to retire and just start every sentence with "back in my day".  Worked for me.

I used to play for a rec league basketball team called the Used To Be Goods. We were still pretty good and even won one game playing 4 on 5.

As for Joe, I’m a Warren supporter. I could vote for him but I’d rather not and now I don’t think that will be necessary.

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Biden would make a good Vice President (again). Plenty of experience at the job, a steadying hand to a much younger, more dynamic and less politically experienced President???....  Also less concern then about his age or medical condition.

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1 hour ago, LenP said:

All you folks clamoring for anyone but Joe should know that he is the best chance to beat Trump. You have no business bitching about four more years of Trump if you nominate someone who can't carry the rust belt states. 

The remaining Trump supporters I know (I know many) will never vote for three things. 

  • A candidate that doesn't want to outlaw abortion.  
  • A candidate that won't protect their right to carry an assault rifle into the voting booth.  
  • Anybody that is a god hating peace loving Democrat.       

There is little point in winning the election with a wall street Democrat that will only pay lip service to climate change, won't address health care unless the insurance companies can get a bigger cut, wants to find more countries to bomb, and is in bed with most of the lobbyists of either gender.   We need a change candidate.  Things may have to get even more screwed up to force change.   The very fact an idiot like Trump got elected shows how many people are desperate for change.   The half percenters are uniquely happy.   We need to figure out a way to find areas of common interest, and move forward.  

Promise the rural people they can keep buying bolt action rifles, but limit the rate of fire on all guns sold forever.   Tax ammunition not designed for target practice.   Protect rural fishing holes from coal mercury and blue green algae, to show the value of an EPA stronger then corporations.    Make sure all working people get healthcare, including elective birth control.   The animosity comes from knowing that somebody not working two jobs gets free shit you cannot afford because you work too hard.      Link abortion to the former Christian values Christ actually talked about, like caring for the children and poor.   You can outlaw abortion in your state if you educate minorities instead of shooting them.   Allow mothers to travel to free states, Greyhound isn't that expensive.   You can decrease food stamps gradually as family size increases, to discourage dependency.    Jail those hiring illegal workers and reform the system so the waiting list for legal residency is shorter then the average worker's lifespan.   Provide a path for citizenship to the best and the brightest, including those who graduate from an American college with honors and all who earn an advanced degree, if they lack a criminal record.   The white racist moron vote cannot and should not be solicited away from Trump.   The rest of the people need to find ways to work together.   

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The title of this thread made me chuckle, who remembers the TV show Petticoat Junction?  One of the lines from the theme song was:

Here's Uncle Joe and he's moving kind of slow at the Junction.  

Before anyone gives me shit, there were some hot chicks on that show, think MaryAnne in Hooterville.  

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2 hours ago, LenP said:

All you folks clamoring for anyone but Joe should know that he is the best chance to beat Trump. You have no business bitching about four more years of Trump if you nominate someone who can't carry the rust belt states. 

I’ll vote for Joe in a heartbeat against the Pride of the GOP. I’ll vote for Flaming Bag of Dog Poo if it is on the ballot vs Trump. At least the dog shit will stink equally and not play favorites. 

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1 hour ago, Gouvernail said:

32A753BE-C481-4F22-99C2-467081F0C8B3.jpeg

"....... Lotta curves, you bet! Even more when you get....... To the Junction!......"

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5 hours ago, Cal20sailor said:

The title of this thread made me chuckle, who remembers the TV show Petticoat Junction?  One of the lines from the theme song was:

Here's Uncle Joe and he's moving kind of slow at the Junction.  

Before anyone gives me shit, there were some hot chicks on that show, think MaryAnne in Hooterville.  

Hooterville pretty well says it all. :D

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10 hours ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

He was slipping when he voted to authorize the use of force in Iraq. 

A charitable view.

Mine is that he knew the fear campaign had worked and so pandered to it because that was the popular Duopoly approach at the time.

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16 hours ago, badlatitude said:

If y'all didn't learn something about polls in the last general election, then you were probably busy paying attention to your belly button.

Trends are more important than polls.  I think it was in the 2012 Republican primary that the term "flavor of the week" was first coined as a different candidate rose to #1 each week.  The R's had more personalities than Sybil.

Joe is getting the same type of support as Hillary got - the DNC and the corporate media, minus Fox News.  But most of America is tired of being told what to do, how to think and who to vote for.  This is particularly true among Democrats and Independents. 

Ever since Joe got into the race, we've been hearing he's the only guy who can beat trump because (fill in the blank).  But in 2016 Bernie consistently out-polled Trump in head-to-head matches.  Did the media forget that?  No.  They just don't want Bernie because they might lose that fat tax cut the Republicans handed to them.  So they sell Joe.  But if this latest poll is a trend, the DNC and the media will have to let Joe go or risk another Hillary disaster.

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17 hours ago, Jules said:

A new Monmouth poll shows Bernie and Liz at 20% and Uncle Joe at 19%.  This is not good news for the DNC, CNN or MSNBC.  If Uncle Joe loses his Flavor of the Month status, who will they turn to in order to protect corporate Democrats and the corporate media?

Nevermind in round two those superdelegates come into play. Surprise, surprise.... :D 

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5 minutes ago, Rat's ass said:

Nevermind in round two those superdelegates come into play. Surprise, surprise.... :D 

No shit.  And if Bernie manages to be the top guy coming into the convention, he'll have only one chance to get the nomination.  Cuz in the lightning round, the super delegates will zap him right out the door.

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2 hours ago, Jules said:

Trends are more important than polls.  I think it was in the 2012 Republican primary that the term "flavor of the week" was first coined as a different candidate rose to #1 each week.  The R's had more personalities than Sybil.

Joe is getting the same type of support as Hillary got - the DNC and the corporate media, minus Fox News.  But most of America is tired of being told what to do, how to think and who to vote for.  This is particularly true among Democrats and Independents. 

Ever since Joe got into the race, we've been hearing he's the only guy who can beat trump because (fill in the blank).  But in 2016 Bernie consistently out-polled Trump in head-to-head matches.  Did the media forget that?  No.  They just don't want Bernie because they might lose that fat tax cut the Republicans handed to them.  So they sell Joe.  But if this latest poll is a trend, the DNC and the media will have to let Joe go or risk another Hillary disaster.

I have seen you and others continue to repeat this, but with zero explanation of how that plays out with the EC. It is like we are already living in the post EC utopia that coastal dems continue to yearn for. For someone to beat Trump, they need the votes of folks in the rust belt  who voted for Obama twice and then turned around and voted for Trump. Bernie still has some chance at those voters, but not as good a chance as Biden. Mayor Pete also has a chance. Things get much less likely for the dems after that, and there is plenty of evidence within the rust belt states to support that. Using national polls to argue about an EC victory is not useful. 

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9 minutes ago, LenP said:

I have seen you and others continue to repeat this, but with zero explanation of how that plays out with the EC. It is like we are already living in the post EC utopia that coastal dems continue to yearn for.

Anything we say or do might not even matter.  We won't even protect our elections, so how do we know the will of the people will determine who gets elected?  There's enough evidence of election tampering that every state should have already gone to paper ballots.  That hasn't happened.  So what we say here is just talk.  Nothing is going to change as long as the ruling class holds all the cards.  PA is may be effective at getting things off our collective chests, but it's not going to change anything.

That being said, IMHO, I believe Bernie can get the necessary EC votes as long as the DNC and corporate media don't interfere.  Fat chance of that happening.  I believe the media wouldn't mind one bit if Trump gets reelected.  He's a plane crash and we know how much they love plane crashes.  And Trump has done wonders for the DNC campaign chest.  Neither puts our country first.

As for Joe, I will vote for him if he gets the nod.  I just don't think he has the staying power to make it through the primaries.

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1 minute ago, Jules said:
19 minutes ago, LenP said:

I have seen you and others continue to repeat this, but with zero explanation of how that plays out with the EC. It is like we are already living in the post EC utopia that coastal dems continue to yearn for.

Anything we say or do might not even matter.  We won't even protect our elections, so how do we know the will of the people will determine who gets elected?  There's enough evidence of election tampering that every state should have already gone to paper ballots.  That hasn't happened.  So what we say here is just talk.  Nothing is going to change as long as the ruling class holds all the cards.  PA is may be effective at getting things off our collective chests, but it's not going to change anything.

That being said, IMHO, I believe Bernie can get the necessary EC votes as long as the DNC and corporate media don't interfere.  Fat chance of that happening.  I believe the media wouldn't mind one bit if Trump gets reelected.  He's a plane crash and we know how much they love plane crashes.  And Trump has done wonders for the DNC campaign chest.  Neither puts our country first.

As for Joe, I will vote for him if he gets the nod.  I just don't think he has the staying power to make it through the primaries.

I don't think Joe will make a particularly good President. That only matter in comparison to the other candidates: is he likely to be better than Trump? Well, the answer looks like a pretty resounding "Hell Yes!" but the same is true for almost anybody including Walsh (well, the margin for Walsh is considerably narrower IMHO).

I also don't believe in the narrative about "people who voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, then voted for Trump in 2016." It makes zero sense to me that anybody who voted for Obama would vote for Trump, although there  are probably a few out there. Yes a lot of COUNTIES went for Obama and then Trump, but that suggests a different set of active voters rather than the same individuals (again IMHO).

Mayor Pete is a Midwesterner himself, almost stereotypically so (big "almost"). Could he carry some of those states? Gee, why not?

- DSK

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1 hour ago, Steam Flyer said:

I don't think Joe will make a particularly good President. That only matter in comparison to the other candidates: is he likely to be better than Trump? Well, the answer looks like a pretty resounding "Hell Yes!" but the same is true for almost anybody including Walsh (well, the margin for Walsh is considerably narrower IMHO).

I also don't believe in the narrative about "people who voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, then voted for Trump in 2016." It makes zero sense to me that anybody who voted for Obama would vote for Trump, although there  are probably a few out there. Yes a lot of COUNTIES went for Obama and then Trump, but that suggests a different set of active voters rather than the same individuals (again IMHO).

Mayor Pete is a Midwesterner himself, almost stereotypically so (big "almost"). Could he carry some of those states? Gee, why not?

- DSK

It is reality that there were old pro union dems which voted for Trump over Hillary based largely on trade and nafta, and who had previously voted for Obama. One can choose to not believe it in the same way that one can choose to disbelieve the roundness of our planet. In the end, belief or lack thereof will not change the reality of what happened.  

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6 minutes ago, LenP said:

It is reality that there were old pro union dems which voted for Trump over Hillary based largely on trade and nafta, and who had previously voted for Obama. One can choose to not believe it in the same way that one can choose to disbelieve the roundness of our planet. In the end, belief or lack thereof will not change the reality of what happened.  

I've heard this said over and over but the few times I've heard/seen people who said they voted for Obama then Trump were not very believable IMHO.

The "old union" guys you refer to most likely voted for Romney over Barry for the same reasons you say they voted for Trump over Hillary. The monolithic Democratic Party lock on unions was busted back in the Reagan era.

- DSK

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7 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

I've heard this said over and over but the few times I've heard/seen people who said they voted for Obama then Trump were not very believable IMHO.

The "old union" guys you refer to most likely voted for Romney over Barry for the same reasons you say they voted for Trump over Hillary. The monolithic Democratic Party lock on unions was busted back in the Reagan era.

- DSK

I keep hearing this said, but still with zero evidence. Why in the world would someone who was pro-union and against free trade vote for Romney over Obama. That makes zero sense, and goes against everything I saw and learned while actually campaigning for Obama in central PA back in 2008, and saw those same homes that had Obama yard signs turn to Trump yard signs in the 2016 cycle. I get the sense that all these folks denying the reality of what happened in 2016 are simply projecting their own political views onto the rest of the country. Big mistake, and what cost Hillary the election. 

Yes, Reagan picked up union votes after Carter's first term, but that does not mean they went to the R side for good. These are people that vote on issues, with trade being the dominant issue. After trade comes labor law, pension and protections for social security and medicare, and down the list are social wedge issues like abortion and gay marriage. These are not folks who are natural Republicans, they are people Trump picked off the D side, largely on trade alone. 

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9 minutes ago, LenP said:

...    ...  everything I saw and learned while actually campaigning for Obama in central PA back in 2008, and saw those same homes that had Obama yard signs turn to Trump yard signs in the 2016 cycle. I get the sense that all these folks denying the reality of what happened in 2016 are simply projecting their own political views onto the rest of the country. Big mistake, and what cost Hillary the election. 

...    ...

That's the most believable statement I've seen/heard yet to the effect that some people voted for Obama and then turned SO far that they voted for Trump.

What cost Hillary the election is her personality and lack of willingness to learn from others. But that's old news

- DSK

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1 hour ago, Steam Flyer said:

The monolithic Democratic Party lock on unions was busted back in the Reagan era.

When Reagan was running for his second term, I was talking to our business manager (the head of most locals) and he shared with me the alarmingly high number of members who were voting for Reagan.  I said, "Yeah.  Times are great now and Reagan looks like a hero."  He agreed.  We had something like 120% employment (the overage coming in from other locals).  Back then everyone voted for whoever they believed would keep them working or put them back to work.

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10 hours ago, Jules said:

Trends are more important than polls.

 

How do you spot trends without taking polls?

 

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1 hour ago, Saorsa said:

How do you spot trends without taking polls?

You can't and I wasn't suggesting that the two are separate.  But polls get most of the attention even though most know they could easily change.   

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10 hours ago, Jules said:

You can't and I wasn't suggesting that the two are separate.  But polls get most of the attention even though most know they could easily change.   

Sounds like bad "journalism".

The results of a poll, however flawed, are a numerical fact.  Trends are speculation with a range of uncertainty that is easily exploited.

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1 hour ago, Saorsa said:

Sounds like bad "journalism".

The results of a poll, however flawed, are a numerical fact.  Trends are speculation with a range of uncertainty that is easily exploited.

BREAKING NEWS! 

That's all the media has to do and the ears of the masses perk up.  Who needs good journalism when something so simple works so well?

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54 minutes ago, Jules said:

BREAKING NEWS! 

That's all the media has to do and the ears of the masses perk up.  Who needs good journalism when something so simple works so well?

The human equivalent of “SQUIRREL!”

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19 minutes ago, jerseyguy said:

The human equivalent of “SQUIRREL!”

Where?!

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