BravoBravo

Act of war..Saudi Arbia

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There are known knowns about missile technologies, and unknown knowns, and known unknowns, and many unknown unknowns. Pretty deep stuff.

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It’s nice that they know where to recreate the trajectory from, before they recreate the trajectory.

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17 minutes ago, chum said:

There are known knowns about missile technologies, and unknown knowns, and known unknowns, and many unknown unknowns. Pretty deep stuff.

I'm thinking Rumsfeld is still actively involved in unknowing the known unknowns for Trump. Trump is good, but not that good.

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5 hours ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:

O - thanks for the explanation.  We agree on this - but, I'm still interested in hearing what folks who seem to care think the appropriate response to all this would be, and how they see that playing out.  "Appropriate Response isn't constrained in my question to be only the  "appropriate US response".  

As to "Iran wanting respectful relations" - I would argue that that perspective is situational, and also dependent upon which part of the Iranian leadership we're discussing.   

Are you asking if Saudi has a right to declare war on Iran?   I suppose so, if the Iranians were responsible.   It is a legitimate escalation of Saudi involvement in the Yemen Proxy War of course, so nobody can act surprised.   American war mongers should sit back and let the locals prosecute this war as they see fit, there is no need for US micromanagement.   I suggest lifting Iranian sanctions and selling both sides some cool weapons.    Unilateral help makes American assets a legitimate target.    Iraq can hedge their bets with a new civil war.  Israel will enjoy some kosher salted popcorn as they evaluate weapons and tactics.  China will sell both sides bulldozers to clean up the mess after the killing is done and get naming rights on a new mosque and some oil in exchange for engineering services.    Does Russia have a dog in this fight?    They enjoy wrecking nations, but fear China gaining influence in the aftermath

If an Iranian faction did this it means they feel their back is against the wall and they are desperate to act while they can.    Many wars are instigated by the losers.   

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Over 40 acts of war by Iran since May 

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Iran has sleeper cells in the US.  They’ve shown restraint given the economic warfare we are waging on them.  If we keep this up we may push them to act here.

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9 minutes ago, BravoBravo said:

Over 40 acts of war by Iran since May 

And those "acts" were the only things that happened at all during those months? Noone else was doing anything?

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1 hour ago, BravoBravo said:

Over 40 acts of war by Iran since May 

Yet we are the ones strangling the Iranian economy after breaking a multinational treaty which they honored for more than a year longer than we did, and Saudis attacked us on 9/11

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6 hours ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:

As to "Iran wanting respectful relations" - I would argue that that perspective is situational, and also dependent upon which part of the Iranian leadership we're discussing.   

Why are you always so down on the Iranian leadership? They are but a reflection of who their population supports.

If a group perceives they are surrounded by crazy motherfuckers, they will tend to want some crazy motherfuckers of their own.

Your attitude is very wide-spread in policing and military circles, but it betrays a deep and fundamental misunderstanding of how populations respond to oppressive external forces.

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8 hours ago, Movable Ballast said:

His tone has been very measured in the passed few days.

It's rare to get to use the word "passed" in this context.

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6 minutes ago, Battlecheese said:

Why are you always so down on the Iranian leadership? They are but a reflection of who their population supports.

If a group perceives they are surrounded by crazy motherfuckers, they will tend to want some crazy motherfuckers of their own.

Your attitude is very wide-spread in policing and military circles, but it betrays a deep and fundamental misunderstanding of how populations respond to oppressive external forces.

Because I have personal circumstances that form my opinions.  I've got friends who's parents are hostage in their own country, who have to be careful HERE who they talk to because they are PNG for having escaped Iran in the early 80s.  I dont trust Iranian leadership, especially the Supreme Leader side of it beyond any box that can be used to contain them.  You want me to think differently?  Cool - give me a reason to.  I'll remind you sir, that I have never made a comment that discounts the dockery that the country of Iran has been subjected to for almost a century. 

 

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Just now, kent_island_sailor said:

Heard on NPR - Someone is speculating this a rogue op by the Iranian military that wants to make SURE the nuke deal falls apart.

It gives the Sharia side a basis for perpetuating the Devil west projection they employ. 

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41 minutes ago, Battlecheese said:

Why are you always so down on the Iranian leadership? They are but a reflection of who their population supports.

If a group perceives they are surrounded by crazy motherfuckers, they will tend to want some crazy motherfuckers of their own.

Your attitude is very wide-spread in policing and military circles, but it betrays a deep and fundamental misunderstanding of how populations respond to oppressive external forces.

I seriously doubt the population supports the unelected fanatical religious leaders that run this country. 

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6 minutes ago, Keith said:

I seriously doubt the population supports the unelected fanatical religious leaders that run this country. 

For most average Iranian citizens?  I think you're quite right.  The sad state of affairs is that ANY public or provable private opposition is deadly. 

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12 hours ago, Keith said:

I seriously doubt the population supports the unelected fanatical religious leaders that run this country. 

Ditto for Saudi Arabia....and UAE etc.

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1 hour ago, justsomeguy! said:

It's rare to get to use the word "passed" in this context.

Non-existent would be preferable.

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22 hours ago, Shootist Jeff said:

So..... being serious for a moment here.  I'm of mixed feelings on this issue.  Don't take any of the following as advocacy for a particular COA (although of course the usual cunts will do that anyway).

From a purely selfish perspective, I hope there is no shootin' war with Iran - for at least another week anyway.  The first race of the season is next weekend and then I'm back in the US for a month.  Dubai is a nice juicy target for cruise missiles and I don't have a ton of confidence in the local guys manning the patriot missile batteries.  They were the bottom of the class at the academy who couldn't make it as pilots.  If they want to blow each other up, at least wait until Oct.  But I digress....

I tend to believe the Houthis when they say they are responsible for the attacks.  However, no way in flipping hell did they do this w/o Iran's technical help and specific greenlight/direction.  And.... For the very reason that the Houthis claimed responsibility tells me it was absolutely NOT a false flag op.  Why would they do that otherwise?

This is IMHO a continuation of Iran's growing desperation about being squeezed on sanctions, particularly on their inability to sell oil on the world market.  This post is not about the right or wrong of those sanctions.  It is what it is at this point.  I think Iran is making a calculus that they can stick their toe over the line and poke the bear hoping to be just annoying enough that we have to talk to them.  They are certainly walking a tightrope.  

And this is a pattern of attempts to walk that tightrope with the theme of disrupting the global oil supply as a tit for tat that their ability to sell oil themselves has been cut off.  For the sake of this discussion, let's stipulate that it IS the Iranians doing this latest attack and the previous attacks on the oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.  If we accept that, then what?

I, like most of you, think that we should not get involved in a war or even a skirmish at the behest of KSA or MBS.  Fuck them, let them fight their own war if they want to smack down Iran.  The reality is that, despite all the good hardware they have, I believe Iran would put a good thump on them if they went toe to toe and they had no help from us.  BUT...... let's look at the bigger picture of what a conflict like that might look like.  Do we really want Iran and KSA/UAE and the other gulfies going at it like children lobbing missiles across a narrow stretch of waterway that transports 21% of the global oil supply??  If you want a global economic meltdown, this would be the way to do it.  

Given that the US is much more energy independant and self-sufficient than we were the last time these shenanigans were occuring - our dog in the fight is considerably less now.  BUT.... a spike in world oil prices would most absolutely affect us and the west very hard.  The flip side of that coin of shutting down the Straight of Whore-mooze is that it would affect asia even more, especially the Chinese.  <shrug>  Maybe it wouldn't be a bad thing after all.  

So anyway, the point of this admittedly long-winded post is that maybe it is in the US and the West best interests to make a statement to the Iranians to knock this shit off.  Or Not.  As I said before, I have zero love for the saudis.  Probably negative Love if that's possible.  

Take shitstain out of the equation for a moment (if your TDS will allow).  Pretend Obama was still Preznit.   Or Hillary or Warren or Biden or whoever is the new king.  I wonder...... what would you then advocate for if the same stuff was going on and you had proof the Iranians were behind this and other attacks?  Shrug and say "not our job"?  Dunno.  I'm certainly not strongly for or against any possible COA.  It's an interesting thought exercise in what could happen either way.  

@Mark K, what's your take on this?

 

I dunno..the guys I trust the most on Yemen say it's entirely plausible the rebels cobbled together a system that could do this our of the Iranian Quds 1. They say the precision of the hits on the tanks was unlikely to be GPS with the tech they have..they probably had some sort of visual guidance...and since they probably didn't have satellites for comm-link they got some people within 40 miles or so to fly them in remotely for the final approach. That could be cobbled together by a dedicated hobbiest in a cave too.  For those guys that would be entirely doable, as those guys aren't just hillbillies, half the old Yemeni military went with them and that old Yemeni military had some pretty trick toys. I am interested in what you think of all that.  

  On the big picture I would ask the Saudis just WTF is so dangerous about Yemen that they feel compelled to go to war there. Again, the smart guys think this was mostly MBS trying to make a rep for himself when he was dense minister, so he told old Abdulla that he could straighten that place out in two shakes of a lamb's tail, and that lamb has done died of old age. 

 I don't see the Iranian's reason for wanting this to happen. Was it to get us "to the table"? No. They absolutely refuse to come to the table still. I think that if anything they are horrified by it. Could get them bombed bigly. Fucking with a few tankers is one thing...but hitting Saudi oil fields is hitting our precious.  We could do anything. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Keith said:

I seriously doubt the population supports the unelected fanatical religious leaders that run this country. 

Then there's Alabama...

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2 hours ago, Keith said:

I seriously doubt the population supports the unelected fanatical religious leaders that run this country. 

Over half of Americans don’t support the religious fanatics that run this one, either.

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2 hours ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:

For most average Iranian citizens?  I think you're quite right.  The sad state of affairs is that ANY public or provable private opposition is deadly. 

Rubbish. A few years ago they had huge protests. A few people died when a mob tried to steal weapons from a police station. woopy doo.

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53 minutes ago, Mark K said:

I dunno..the guys I trust the most on Yemen say it's entirely plausible the rebels cobbled together a system that could do this our of the Iranian Quds 1. They say the precision of the hits on the tanks was unlikely to be GPS with the tech they have..they probably had some sort of visual guidance...and since they probably didn't have satellites for comm-link they got some people within 40 miles or so to fly them in remotely for the final approach. That could be cobbled together by a dedicated hobbiest in a cave too.  For those guys that would be entirely doable, as those guys aren't just hillbillies, half the old Yemeni military went with them and that old Yemeni military had some pretty trick toys. I am interested in what you think of all that.  

I'm not buying any video links or pointed lasers for the final approach. The ridiculous symmetry of the hits on those tanks screams computer guidance all the way.

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6 minutes ago, Battlecheese said:

Rubbish. A few years ago they had huge protests. A few people died when a mob tried to steal weapons from a police station. woopy doo.

It's like Cuba, there's no shortage of bitter pre-revolution cronys angry that people "stole" their property who now reside in the US and they poison discourse.

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1 hour ago, Ishmael said:

Then there's Alabama...

Not any more.  Recently wiped out by a hurricane.  Much stronger than expected and caught them unawares.  If only they had been warned!

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9 hours ago, phillysailor said:

Yet we are the ones strangling the Iranian economy after breaking a multinational treaty which they honored for more than a year longer than we did, and Saudis attacked us on 9/11

It was a a crap sweetheart "Treaty" under Obama's misguided ,naïve views of how to deal with Iran...which has been a bad actor on the world stage since the revolution

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9 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Heard on NPR - Someone is speculating this a rogue op by the Iranian military that wants to make SURE the nuke deal falls apart.

LOL...the IS NO rogue anything happening in Iran...not the way that country or NK or China or Pakistan or any of the bad actors in the world operate

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5 hours ago, Battlecheese said:

I'm not buying any video links or pointed lasers for the final approach. The ridiculous symmetry of the hits on those tanks screams computer guidance all the way.

I thought the same thing when seeing the punctures in the empties...in the breaking news stories "drones" was the term used...when seeing the photos I thought drones may have been used as laser targeting for the larger cruise missiles that did the real damage 

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7 hours ago, Battlecheese said:

Rubbish. A few years ago they had huge protests. A few people died when a mob tried to steal weapons from a police station. woopy doo.

Rubbish?   What's rubbish?

Do you know or talk to people who live/have lived there? Who still have family there?  Or do you base your opinion on reporting?   My comments are coming from close personal friends who still have parents living outside Tehran.  So - I don't have an "on the ground myself" perspective, but, this friend went to University for architecture and music in Vienna, Austria, and is one of the most even thinking, intelligent people I know.  I'm inclined to consider his opinions well founded.   He and his brother didn't come back to Iran in '79 ( he was in school, his brother was working in the UK)  His sister was smuggled out thru the desert to other family in Europe in 1980.  For several years, he didn't get to communicate at all with his parents.  They were allowed a tourist visa about 9 years ago to fly to visit him in NJ for his daughter's wedding.   After their return to Iran, my friend said that they were "interviewed" at least once a month for the next two years.   



 

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12 hours ago, phillysailor said:

and Saudis attacked us on 9/11

I'm FUCKING SICK of people saying this.  No THE SAUDIS did not attack us on 9/11.  Some non-state actors of Saudi origin attacked us on 9/11.

You DO see the distinction here, don't you?  It's deliberately disingenuous and you fucking know it.  I have zero love for the saudis - either as individuals or as a nation.  But the gov't of KSA did not attack the US nor did the individuals attack the US at the behest or with the support of the KSA gov't.  

So please..... STOP FUCKING SAYING THAT!!!!   It's blatantly untrue.  There are more than enough legitimate issues to take KSA to task for and to not trust them.  But 9/11 is not one of them.  And that has nothing to do with what is going on now with KSA.  Nothing.

:angry:

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12 hours ago, Battlecheese said:

Why are you always so down on the Iranian leadership? They are but a reflection of who their population supports.

 

That is absolutely NOT true.  The Iranian "leadership" is not the President of the Islamic Republic.  It is the un-elected mullahs and the IRGC who run the place.  The president doesn't fart or scratch his nuts without their blessing.  And the Iranian population does not completely support the mullahs, as evadent by the riots across the country a few years ago and the brutal crackdown on the protesters that ensued.  I think saying the population is scared shitless of the "leadership" would be a more accurate way to describe the situation there.

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1 hour ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:

Rubbish?   What's rubbish?

Do you know or talk to people who live/have lived there? Who still have family there?  Or do you base your opinion on reporting?   My comments are coming from close personal friends who still have parents living outside Tehran.  So - I don't have an "on the ground myself" perspective, but, this friend went to University for architecture and music in Vienna, Austria, and is one of the most even thinking, intelligent people I know.  I'm inclined to consider his opinions well founded.   He and his brother didn't come back to Iran in '79 ( he was in school, his brother was working in the UK)  His sister was smuggled out thru the desert to other family in Europe in 1980.  For several years, he didn't get to communicate at all with his parents.  They were allowed a tourist visa about 9 years ago to fly to visit him in NJ for his daughter's wedding.   After their return to Iran, my friend said that they were "interviewed" at least once a month for the next two years.   
 

Turn it into a lybia, iraq, or afghanistan! Hell or turn them into another Saudi Arabia petrodollar protectorate or the beacon of liberty and freedom!  Long live the king! :ph34r:

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1 hour ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:

Rubbish?   What's rubbish?

Do you know or talk to people who live/have lived there? Who still have family there?  Or do you base your opinion on reporting?   My comments are coming from close personal friends who still have parents living outside Tehran.  So - I don't have an "on the ground myself" perspective, but, this friend went to University for architecture and music in Vienna, Austria, and is one of the most even thinking, intelligent people I know.  I'm inclined to consider his opinions well founded.   He and his brother didn't come back to Iran in '79 ( he was in school, his brother was working in the UK)  His sister was smuggled out thru the desert to other family in Europe in 1980.  For several years, he didn't get to communicate at all with his parents.  They were allowed a tourist visa about 9 years ago to fly to visit him in NJ for his daughter's wedding.   After their return to Iran, my friend said that they were "interviewed" at least once a month for the next two years.   



 

Remember when Iranians living in the DC area were protesting and were beaten by Iranian thug agents 

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5 minutes ago, Shootist Jeff said:

I'm FUCKING SICK of people saying this.  No THE SAUDIS did not attack us on 9/11.  Some non-state actors of Saudi origin attacked us on 9/11.

Fucking moron. You got duped, so get a fucking grip. 

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11 hours ago, dorydude said:

Ditto for Saudi Arabia....and UAE etc.

I can't speak for KSA, but your supposition about the UAE is dead wrong.  The vast majority of the UAE population LOVE LOVE LOVE their leaders.  MBZ is practically a god here.  

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6 minutes ago, BravoBravo said:

Remember when Iranians living in the DC area were protesting and were beaten by Iranian thug agents 

I thought those were Turks being beaten by thug turk agents.

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4 minutes ago, Shootist Jeff said:

I thought those were Turks being beaten by thug turk agents.

Yeah..you are correct..I wasn't certain as I typed.....as an aside for the curious....youtube Iran or Lebanon 1950's-60's.....and tell me what you think Iran's place should be in the world today...they are an oppressive evil empire ...along with China,Russia , NK and their collective proxies...

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Just now, BravoBravo said:

Yeah..you are correct..I wasn't certain as I typed.....as an aside for the curious....youtube Iran or Lebanon 1950's-60's.....and tell me what you think Iran's place should be in the world today...they are an oppressive evil empire ...along with China,Russia , NK and their collective proxies...

They WEREN'T, though - up and until the 60s, they were a leading society, admittedly conservative, but a leading society in the arts, culture, science.  Their move to a theocracy is largely the west's fault, when Churchill conned Eisenhower into deposing their popularly elected secular leader, Mohammad Mossadeg (sp?) 

Go look up "Operation Ajax" for a quick primer - I read a book about that around 15 years ago, and eye opening is too mild a description for how that made me think. 

The same people live there, and would love to return to that easier state of being.  I'd love it if we could figure out a way for them to do so, w/out turning the place into a parking lot first. 

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24 minutes ago, Shootist Jeff said:

I'm FUCKING SICK of people saying this.  No THE SAUDIS did not attack us on 9/11.  Some non-state actors of Saudi origin attacked us on 9/11.

You DO see the distinction here, don't you?  It's deliberately disingenuous and you fucking know it.  I have zero love for the saudis - either as individuals or as a nation.  But the gov't of KSA did not attack the US nor did the individuals attack the US at the behest or with the support of the KSA gov't.  

So please..... STOP FUCKING SAYING THAT!!!!   It's blatantly untrue.  There are more than enough legitimate issues to take KSA to task for and to not trust them.  But 9/11 is not one of them.  And that has nothing to do with what is going on now with KSA.  Nothing.

:angry:

As far as we know, and that would likely be the end of it if the Feds would stop fighting the Broward Bulldog’s efforts to obtain unreleased records of the investigation into the Saudis in Sarasota who housed Atta and disappeared immediately after the attacks. Sen. Bob Graham was on the 9/11 commission and they didn’t even get that stuff. 

 

There’s a reason that stuff can’t be shown even to our representatives. I’d like to know it. 

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3 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

As far as we know, and that would likely be the end of it if the Feds would stop fighting the Broward Bulldog’s efforts to obtain unreleased records of the investigation into the Saudis in Sarasota who housed Atta and disappeared immediately after the attacks. Sen. Bob Graham was on the 9/11 commission and they didn’t even get that stuff. 

  

There’s a reason that stuff can’t be shown even to our representatives. I’d like to know it. 

Sol - I'm unfamiliar with what you're talking about - care to share a little more background? 

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3 minutes ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:

They WEREN'T, though - up and until the 60s, they were a leading society, admittedly conservative, but a leading society in the arts, culture, science.  Their move to a theocracy is largely the west's fault, when Churchill conned Eisenhower into deposing their popularly elected secular leader, Mohammad Mossadeg (sp?) 

Go look up "Operation Ajax" for a quick primer - I read a book about that around 15 years ago, and eye opening is too mild a description for how that made me think. 

The same people live there, and would love to return to that easier state of being.  I'd love it if we could figure out a way for them to do so, w/out turning the place into a parking lot first. 

The Turks and the Persians both have ancient culture, and a high degree of secular interests. That they are currently ruled by oppressive theocracies is a kind of aberration in history and a reflection of how fucked-up the world is, generally.

- DSK

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7 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

The Turks and the Persians both have ancient culture, and a high degree of secular interests. That they are currently ruled by oppressive theocracies is a kind of aberration in history and a reflection of how fucked-up the world is, generally.

- DSK

Friends from Iran told me the Shah was dragging the place into the modern secular 20th century world whether they liked it or not. He dragged a bit too hard and too fast.

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8 minutes ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:

Sol - I'm unfamiliar with what you're talking about - care to share a little more background? 

Broward Bulldog is the non profit project of a long time Miami Herald reporter who either walked or was pushed out the door. He did some snooping into the Sarasota Saudi connection and started getting doors slammed in his face. FOIA litigation has been going on for years.   

https://www.floridabulldog.org/foia-lawsuit/

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Just now, kent_island_sailor said:

Friends from Iran told me the Shah was dragging the place into the modern secular 20th century world whether they liked it or not. He dragged a bit too hard and too fast.

Agreed, and he also was most widely seen as a military ruler who used a brutal secret police to keep his power.

Government always proceeds on the basis of consent of the governed... or it doesn't proceed very far. The fall of the Shah is one of history's many many examples.

- DSK

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25 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Agreed, and he also was most widely seen as a military ruler who used a brutal secret police to keep his power.

Government always proceeds on the basis of consent of the governed... or it doesn't proceed very far. The fall of the Shah is one of history's many many examples.

- DSK

He was 100% that, but I never go the idea he was a warlord kleptocrat out for all he could steal before he retired to Switzerland. I think he truly did want to advance his country into the modernity. Of course once you go down the secret police route, you need to go ALL the way. As Machiavelli so eloquently stated, never do your enemy a small injury. Kill the shit out of them to make an example for all the rest and then be Mr. Nice Shah ;)

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14 hours ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

4B1EB4E4-8E62-45CD-87F8-2377918114F3.jpeg

I don't totally disagree with that tweet, if they want to fight a war, well then no one is stopping them. AFAIK Iran and Saudi Arabia have no real ability to actually take over each other, so if they want to act up they can have at it :rolleyes:

I suspect the Saudis have zero appetite for a war if we aren't supplying the warriors.

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My guess is that the KSA AF is >> the Vietnam era Phantoms but then not as good as Iran's Russian air defenses. On the other hand, Iranian ground forces would destroy the KSA and their Pilipino maids.

BTW, after 9/11 of which the KSA was totally innocent, they went the extra measure of kicking out our forces at Prince Sultan. These forces had been the target of a truck bombing traced to everyone's favorite whipping boy, Hezbollah, although no one could ever quite explain to the 9/11 Commission why OBL was getting congratulated:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khobar_Towers_bombing#Attribution_to_al-Qaeda

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1 hour ago, Shootist Jeff said:

I'm FUCKING SICK of people saying this.  No THE SAUDIS did not attack us on 9/11.  Some non-state actors of Saudi origin attacked us on 9/11.

You DO see the distinction here, don't you?  It's deliberately disingenuous and you fucking know it.  I have zero love for the saudis - either as individuals or as a nation.  But the gov't of KSA did not attack the US nor did the individuals attack the US at the behest or with the support of the KSA gov't.  

So please..... STOP FUCKING SAYING THAT!!!!   It's blatantly untrue.  There are more than enough legitimate issues to take KSA to task for and to not trust them.  But 9/11 is not one of them.  And that has nothing to do with what is going on now with KSA.  Nothing.

:angry:

Follow the money

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Has anyone noticed how much more flexible our elk are since they've had their spines removed?

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2 hours ago, Shootist Jeff said:

I'm FUCKING SICK of people saying this.  No THE SAUDIS did not attack us on 9/11.  Some non-state actors of Saudi origin attacked us on 9/11.

You DO see the distinction here, don't you?  It's deliberately disingenuous and you fucking know it.  I have zero love for the saudis - either as individuals or as a nation.  But the gov't of KSA did not attack the US nor did the individuals attack the US at the behest or with the support of the KSA gov't.  

So please..... STOP FUCKING SAYING THAT!!!!   It's blatantly untrue.  There are more than enough legitimate issues to take KSA to task for and to not trust them.  But 9/11 is not one of them.  And that has nothing to do with what is going on now with KSA.  Nothing.

:angry:

First, Saudis did attack us on 9/11. That's just a fact.

Second, Philly didn't say King Faud operationally ordered this in the same way that Putin ordered the Russian election interference which got your boy Shitstain elected. He say Saudis attacked us on 9/11 which, again, is just a fact.

Third, the hijackers did receive aid from the KSA. That was what the 28 29 pages were all about.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/18/what-we-know-about-saudi-arabias-role-in-911/

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2994063-911-Report-28pages.html

You might want read these and then reconsider your boy W's casus belli for attacking Iraq. It's dated December 2002. The drumbeat for Operation Misdirection started that September because, in Andrew Card's immortal words, From a marketing point of view, you don't introduce new products in August. 

image.png.925eb70047aba026c21142b42ae82716.png

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2 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Friends from Iran told me the Shah was dragging the place into the modern secular 20th century world whether they liked it or not. He dragged a bit too hard and too fast.

Knew of (2nd hand) people who despised the Shah as a corrupt murderous autocrat before the Revolution and they wanted him gone yesterday.

asking people from Iran in the US their feelings on Iran is like asking Cubans in Miami about Cuba.

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2 hours ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:

?????   

You know, your abandonment of principles like security against foreign intervention, fiscal restraint, states rights, free trade, etc

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1 hour ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

asking people from Iran in the US their feelings on Iran is like asking Cubans in Miami about Cuba.

Yes, this is the selection bias. It doesn't mean you shouldn't ask because you should but it just has to be one data point.

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It's also a what-if game that pretends what preceded the Revolution could continue. Notable historical example is the Russian emigres whining in Paris & New York about the Bolsheviks always ignored the other 2 Revolutions that'd occurred because the Tsarist regime was incapable of interacting with & dealing with the modern world and the property & privilege said emigres lost couldn't continue.

Coming back to Iran, the National Car Museum looks to have a nice collection: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Car_Museum_of_Iran who doesn't think a ruler needs 1200 cars? Is it any wonder people were pissed at the Shah? Now, they might not like the Mullahs that came after, but that's not the same as wanting the shah back.

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49 minutes ago, Mismoyled Jiblet. said:

It's also a what-if game that pretends what preceded the Revolution could continue. Notable historical example is the Russian emigres whining in Paris & New York about the Bolsheviks always ignored the other 2 Revolutions that'd occurred because the Tsarist regime was incapable of interacting with & dealing with the modern world and the property & privilege said emigres lost couldn't continue.

Coming back to Iran, the National Car Museum looks to have a nice collection: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Car_Museum_of_Iran who doesn't think a ruler needs 1200 cars? Is it any wonder people were pissed at the Shah? Now, they might not like the Mullahs that came after, but that's not the same as wanting the shah back.

Probably about 10,000th time "revolt and get rid of evil shithead leader" ended up putting in place evil shithead leader #2 :rolleyes: One of the reasons our American Revolution was and is an outlier. 99% of the time we would have gone from King George to King George (Washington). The Who even had a song about it.

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6 hours ago, Shootist Jeff said:

I'm FUCKING SICK of people saying this.  No THE SAUDIS did not attack us on 9/11.  Some non-state actors of Saudi origin attacked us on 9/11.

You DO see the distinction here, don't you?  It's deliberately disingenuous and you fucking know it.  I have zero love for the saudis - either as individuals or as a nation.  But the gov't of KSA did not attack the US nor did the individuals attack the US at the behest or with the support of the KSA gov't.  

So please..... STOP FUCKING SAYING THAT!!!!   It's blatantly untrue.  There are more than enough legitimate issues to take KSA to task for and to not trust them.  But 9/11 is not one of them.  And that has nothing to do with what is going on now with KSA.  Nothing.

:angry:

I’m not sure what’s worse.

You denying the fact that the Saudi’s attacked  or  the fact that you chose to work for/with them.

Actually I do. The second one is worse.

https://www.floridabulldog.org/2019/08/u-s-judge-orders-release-of-records-that-may-tie-saudi-royals-to-9-11/

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6 hours ago, Shootist Jeff said:
18 hours ago, phillysailor said:

and Saudis attacked us on 9/11

I'm FUCKING SICK of people saying this.  No THE SAUDIS did not attack us on 9/11.  Some non-state actors of Saudi origin attacked us on 9/11.

Dear Mr Flyboy. Were your panties in this much of a twist while you were flying?

You literally cannot quote me without putting words in my mouth. You quoted my “and Saudis attacked us” and complained I wrote “the Saudis attacked us.”

Yes. Saudis attacked us on 9/11. Were I to say “the Saudis” then I would be inferring Saudis as a collective, as a nation or as a people decided Death To America required action.

But I didn’t write that.

Chill the duck out and stop attacking people for their political beliefs. Listen before arguing.

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7 hours ago, Shootist Jeff said:

I'm FUCKING SICK of people saying this.  No THE SAUDIS did not attack us on 9/11.  Some non-state actors of Saudi origin attacked us on 9/11.

Jeffy has been saying this since he started working for Arabs.

All but one of the hijackers were Saudi, OBL was Saudi ... Mmmm and these are the people who dismember their own inside the Embassy?

 

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7 hours ago, Shootist Jeff said:

The vast majority of the UAE population LOVE LOVE LOVE their leaders.  MBZ is practically a god here.  

I you lived there and someone asked you what you thought of the leadership ... what would you say?

TimeStampPhoto.AFP_.jpg?itok=gPjqpfLT

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1 hour ago, random said:

Jeffy has been saying this since he started working for Arabs.

All but one of the hijackers were Saudi, OBL was Saudi ... Mmmm and these are the people who dismember their own inside the Embassy?

 

And OBL’s money was from where? 

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8 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Friends from Iran told me the Shah was dragging the place into the modern secular 20th century world whether they liked it or not. He dragged a bit too hard and too fast.

There were other issues as well. He was a despot who used his secret police in a dastardly fashion. I taught a lot of Iranian kids - refugees technically. There were two distinct groups in Toronto. The much bigger group were the Shah's people and got our shortly after the Revolution. They were very westernized and also pretty shallow for the most part - for the boys it was all about cars and girls. For the girls, appearance and boys. They also were pretty well off. I assume they got money out of the country just in case. The other, much smaller group, came to Canada at least ten years later. Their parents had been members or supporters of the Iranian Communist Party who were allowed to be an opposition group for about ten years. When things got too hot they left. They could not have been more different than the earlier group of kids. The latter group were very serious, hardworking students who integrated quickly into Canadian society. One of my favourite kids of all time was an incredible student and person. He was the president of the student council and director of the school play. Last I heard of him he was at Harvard Law - I assume to learn the secrets of the elite since he was pretty left wing in his politics. He agonized about his first vote. In an upper-middle class support he realized there was little point voting NDP but didn't really like the Liberals and liked the Conservatives less. He held his nose and voted Liberal. Had a very serious conversation with him - he wanted to know if Canadians would vote for an Iranian-Canadian NDPer for prime minister. I said probably they would (the NDP leader now is a Sikh) but he needed to shave the goatee because it made him look like Lenin. Also, he should marry nice blonde girl named Jennifer. The school is having a reunion next year. I look forward to seeing what he ended up doing.

This got me thinking about how we generalize way too much about immigrants - assuming that everyone in a group is the same. Our school was majority Chinese for some years but there were many different groups of Chinese and often they did not like each other much. 

  • railway generation Chinese. Generally spoke no Chinese and as one kid said he was like a banana - yellow on the outside and white on the inside
  • Hong Kong Chinese who came in great numbers in fear of Chinese takeover (perhaps they were right)
  • Mainland Chinese - many subtypes. No one likes the people from Shanghai for some reason (sort of like Canadians not liking Toronto). Those from Fujian province (lots of them emigrate) tend to be poorly educated and end up working as store clerks or in restaurants.
  • FOBs - (Fresh Off the Boat (or airplane) - some kids could be FOBs for many years - they hung out together and tended to have weak English skills.
  • Chinese from somewhere else - Malaysia to Jamaica. We had several kids with heavy Jamaican accents. They were Hakka Chinese who went to Jamaica but left in the 1960s and 1970s when they were made unwelcome. Indian Chinese - these folks were refugees from China after the Japanese invasion. They went to India and came to Canada with thick Indian accents.
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11 hours ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:

Rubbish?   What's rubbish?

Do you know or talk to people who live/have lived there? Who still have family there?  Or do you base your opinion on reporting?   My comments are coming from close personal friends who still have parents living outside Tehran.  So - I don't have an "on the ground myself" perspective, but, this friend went to University for architecture and music in Vienna, Austria, and is one of the most even thinking, intelligent people I know.  I'm inclined to consider his opinions well founded.   He and his brother didn't come back to Iran in '79 ( he was in school, his brother was working in the UK)  His sister was smuggled out thru the desert to other family in Europe in 1980.  For several years, he didn't get to communicate at all with his parents.  They were allowed a tourist visa about 9 years ago to fly to visit him in NJ for his daughter's wedding.   After their return to Iran, my friend said that they were "interviewed" at least once a month for the next two years.   

"I've got friends who's parents are hostage in their own country". Leaving the country for a party doesn't sound like it was too hard. They even went home again. Sounds to me like they're just not that desperate to leave.

How close an eye do you think american authorities keep on citizens who return with Syrian or Afghan stamps on their passports?

10 hours ago, Shootist Jeff said:

That is absolutely NOT true.  The Iranian "leadership" is not the President of the Islamic Republic.  It is the un-elected mullahs and the IRGC who run the place.  The president doesn't fart or scratch his nuts without their blessing.  And the Iranian population does not completely support the mullahs, as evadent by the riots across the country a few years ago and the brutal crackdown on the protesters that ensued.  I think saying the population is scared shitless of the "leadership" would be a more accurate way to describe the situation there.

You are projecting your fearful american mindset. All governments remain in power at the pleasure of their constituents. No amount of money or external power can keep an unpopular government in office. (See: Iranian islamic revolution).

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10 hours ago, A guy in the Chesapeake said:
10 hours ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

As far as we know, and that would likely be the end of it if the Feds would stop fighting the Broward Bulldog’s efforts to obtain unreleased records of the investigation into the Saudis in Sarasota who housed Atta and disappeared immediately after the attacks. Sen. Bob Graham was on the 9/11 commission and they didn’t even get that stuff. 

  

There’s a reason that stuff can’t be shown even to our representatives. I’d like to know it. 

Sol - I'm unfamiliar with what you're talking about - care to share a little more background? 

What he's talking about is a major reason I think that the

 

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1 hour ago, Battlecheese said:

All governments remain in power at the pleasure of their constituents. No amount of money or external power can keep an unpopular government in office. (See: Iranian islamic revolution).

This is simplistic at best, and more probably plain wrong.  There are many examples, but 2 that are reasonably topical are Zimbabwe and Syria. 

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39 minutes ago, Recidivist said:
1 hour ago, Battlecheese said:

All governments remain in power at the pleasure of their constituents. No amount of money or external power can keep an unpopular government in office. (See: Iranian islamic revolution).

This is simplistic at best, and more probably plain wrong.  There are many examples, but 2 that are reasonably topical are Zimbabwe and Syria. 

Nah. It's simplistic but only some.

Zimbabwe and Syria are good examples.... look who is on top, and on what they spend keeping power.

- DSK

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54 minutes ago, Recidivist said:

This is simplistic at best, and more probably plain wrong.  There are many examples, but 2 that are reasonably topical are Zimbabwe and Syria. 

revolutions happen when there's enough energy to overthrow the current regime. the current regime can expend lots of resources repressing this (see: Tsarist Russia). Eventually this repression might become unsustainable and a revolution occurs. Then, once the revolution has occurred, a new regime takes place. It might be good, it might be bad, it might start off ok and trend bad (see: Zimbabwe post '80, Syria post '46)

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49 minutes ago, Recidivist said:

This is simplistic at best, and more probably plain wrong.  There are many examples, but 2 that are reasonably topical are Zimbabwe and Syria. 

Zimbabwe? They get a lot of bad press out here, but their support base is not the white farmers who are getting shafted. Nationalistic leaders who can inspire their subjects can get away with all sorts of foolishness. MZGA

Syria? What are you smoking? The guy won an election which the UN had no issues with at all. They even let people in refugee camps in neighbouring countries vote. I'm sure you're disappointed that they don't like the american-funded terrorists, but the population seems to be pretty clear about who they'd rather was calling the shots.

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16 hours ago, BravoBravo said:
22 hours ago, Battlecheese said:

I'm not buying any video links or pointed lasers for the final approach. The ridiculous symmetry of the hits on those tanks screams computer guidance all the way.

I thought the same thing when seeing the punctures in the empties...in the breaking news stories "drones" was the term used...when seeing the photos I thought drones may have been used as laser targeting for the larger cruise missiles that did the real damage 

It's sounding like there were two parties involved to me. Drones launched from Yemen, then some other group piggybacked in with missiles.

america and the sauds are having real problems keeping the team together: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/09/18/disputing-trump-claims-japan-says-no-evidence-iran-was-behind-saudi-attack

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14 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

Government always proceeds on the basis of consent of the governed... or it doesn't proceed very far. 

Pssst, I don't think China got that memo.

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23 hours ago, Battlecheese said:

I'm not buying any video links or pointed lasers for the final approach. The ridiculous symmetry of the hits on those tanks screams computer guidance all the way.

Why a computer? We use human pilots for our UAVs.  Check out the hobby drone races sometime, guys racing through an obstacle course, they are doing it watching screens displaying the nose-cam view.  

 

 

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13 hours ago, kent_island_sailor said:

I don't totally disagree with that tweet, if they want to fight a war, well then no one is stopping them. AFAIK Iran and Saudi Arabia have no real ability to actually take over each other, so if they want to act up they can have at it :rolleyes:

I suspect the Saudis have zero appetite for a war if we aren't supplying the warriors.

Everything I've read and understand about the place..... a war is THE LAST thing KSA wants.  I think they understand that lobbing missiles at each other does them no good if the entire Persian Gulf is shut down.  

However, I think there is a faction within the KSA gubmint (Maybe MBS, maybe other hardliners) that thinks if they can convince the US to conduct a limited retaliatory strike on them, it might put them back in their box for a bit.  That idea might work on an Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, etc.  But the problem is the Iranians likely would say fuck it and feel they have nothing to lose and start lobbing missiles at KSA, UAE, etc.  It will end badly for them, but in the meantime the entire global economy takes a shit.  

As I said before, I think none of the players in the region want any sort of shooting war.  Even a one off "surgical strike".  I believe Iran is playing a dangerous game of trying to just barely stick their toe across the red line and see what they can get away with in an attempt to make it so annoying the US comes back to the Nuke treaty table to relieve the crippling sanctions.The obvious problem with that is it will take one small miscalculation on any side's part and KA-BLAMO!

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The rebels say they did it and they probably did. Because Iran gave them hardware for their war against the Saudis it doesn't mean Iran maintained total control of it. 

 This attack may have the Saudis thinking that their oil fields and refining capability may lack an effective defense, btw. Don't be shocked if they tell us privately to limit this to sanctions for the near future. 

 

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8 hours ago, phillysailor said:

Dear Mr Flyboy. Were your panties in this much of a twist while you were flying?

You literally cannot quote me without putting words in my mouth. You quoted my “and Saudis attacked us” and complained I wrote “the Saudis attacked us.”

Yes. Saudis attacked us on 9/11. Were I to say “the Saudis” then I would be inferring Saudis as a collective, as a nation or as a people decided Death To America required action.

But I didn’t write that.

Chill the duck out and stop attacking people for their political beliefs. Listen before arguing.

But you absolutely DID infer that.  Otherwise, how is it relevant to the current conversation?  Hint, its not.  At all.  

It would be like saying while we were having an international crisis in or with Pakistan, that you said something stupid like: "Yeah, but Pakistanis attacked in San Bernardino in 2015".  

And yes, your comparo is JUST as stupid and irrelevant as my example above.  

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5 minutes ago, Mark K said:

Why a computer? We use human pilots for our UAVs.  Check out the hobby drone races sometime, guys racing through an obstacle course, they are doing it watching screens displaying the nose-cam view.  

Computers because if you've got a joystick jockey hot-dogging it in I wouldn't expect them to get (for example) those 4 tanks all hit at the same height and direction. it looks much more like I would expect a flock of automated missiles to hit like.

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8 minutes ago, Mark K said:

The rebels say they did it and they probably did. Because Iran gave them hardware for their war against the Saudis it doesn't mean Iran maintained total control of it. 

 This attack may have the Saudis thinking that their oil fields and refining capability may lack an effective defense, btw. Don't be shocked if they tell us privately to limit this to sanctions for the near future. 

The saudis should have worked that out a few weeks ago when these drones had their first outing. This one is more interesting because the reports seem very positive that the missiles part of the attack came from the north.

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7 minutes ago, Battlecheese said:

Computers because if you've got a joystick jockey hot-dogging it in I wouldn't expect them to get (for example) those 4 tanks all hit at the same height and direction. it looks much more like I would expect a flock of automated missiles to hit like.

Right in the effin' window...

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Mark K said:

The rebels say they did it and they probably did. Because Iran gave them hardware for their war against the Saudis it doesn't mean Iran maintained total control of it. 

Looking at the map, I'm beginning to have some doubts that the Houthis actually did this.  Looking at google earth and doing some ruler stuff..... its about 400+ nm from the Yemen border to the refinery.  That's a LONG LONG way for a small drone to fly.  OTOH, the closet point to the attack site is 150nm from Iran proper.  Or little further to the Iraqi southern border

59fe5ae7-9fef-4eaf-9bb1-a79f6a954489-AP1

There's no way in hell those little prop drones of the wreckage they found at the attack site had enough range to be launched from Yemen.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/09/more-evidence-points-to-iranian-cruise-missiles-drones-in-attack-on-saudi-oilfield/

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4 minutes ago, Shootist Jeff said:

Looking at the map, I'm beginning to have some doubts that the Houthis actually did this.  Looking at google earth and doing some ruler stuff..... its about 400+ nm from the Yemen border to the refinery.  That's a LONG LONG way for a small drone to fly.  OTOH, the closet point to the attack site is 150nm from Iran proper.  Or little further to the Iraqi southern border

 

There's no way in hell those little prop drones of the wreckage they found at the attack site had enough range to be launched from Yemen.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/09/more-evidence-points-to-iranian-cruise-missiles-drones-in-attack-on-saudi-oilfield/

You know, if you read a little, you wouldn't be so ignorant.

 

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9 hours ago, Hypercapnic Tom said:

What he's talking about is a major reason I think that the

 

Let’s see those pages first, or let our representatives see them, and then talk about further investigation. 

And let’s allow Mohammed Bone Saw to respond to these attacks, and stay the hell out of it. 

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