EarthBM

Used cat market

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Wiley Sharp of Denison puts out pretty useful quarterly reports on brokered cat sales. The latest is here: Q2’2019

I put the data from Q1’2017 to Q2’2019 into my supercomputer and made some charts... 

Only used cats 49’ LWL and longer (cuts out a lot of 47’-48’ FPs, Leopards, and Lagoons since this is SAILING Anarchy). Also removed 3 sales that were on the market more than 5 years. This left 116 sales over 10 quarters.

Chart 1: Depreciation stops at 20 years and at $200k. The two yellow dots are both Privilege 585s both sold in Jan’19, I suspect there is something dodgy about those sales, both in France. Otherwise pretty clean data.

288B30BA-BF99-4F14-A9AB-45C132167EF0.png

Chart 2: Average years on the market since listing. In practice probably longer, because of de-listening and re-listing. At over one year this is the true deadweight cost of selling a cat. Brokers do work for their commissions (some more than others). The difference between the offer price and the listing price is not a real cost — listing price is just a guess and a marketing signal, (accepted) offer price is the true market price. But cats spending a year until the clearing price is found, accumulating depreciation, dock fees and maintenance, is the real economic loss. So what Wiley Sharp is doing in disseminating these data is a real service to buyers and sellers, since more information = faster decisions.

A577EDDC-10D4-4C6A-9F75-7AABEFB3182E.png

 

Chart 3: Sales have picked up in 2019 from 10 per quarter to 15-20. This could also just be more sales getting input into YW’s sales database.

EA33BD92-A00C-4BE6-8A2A-87319017AA18.png

 

Chart 4: Average selling price. This picked up in Q1’2019 on the sales of 3 Outremer 5Xs (yum!), and 3 somewhat dodgy sales of Lagoon 620s (Venezuela, Turkey, and Spain — if you need to get your money out of Venezuela pay $1.5m for a Lagoon, but I don’t know). Q2’2019 is the lowest price quarter.

3D1C43C7-8351-46C1-B458-5B789D272F64.png

 

Interestingly 55’ Wormwood Avalon appears to have sold in May this year for almost $300k. Another one that I quite liked was Pinta 52’ tri, sold in March for $225k after almost 3 years on the market. I almost went to see it, but “granite countertops” stopped me.

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Great crunching of the data. I've seen his reports and they're super useful. I'm surprised that Soldboat isn't upset with him, actually. 

I like the depreciation curve. Pretty telling. 

One big asterisk to this, the delta between the listing price and the sale price doesn't reflect the original listing price, just the final listing price at the time of contract. I know several boat's that floated down significantly from their original listing price to their final listing price, so saying that "the average boat sold for 93% of its asking price" is dodgy data. 

I also know that most "fancy" boat's done appear in that. Participation is voluntary, so Gunboats etc usually don't appear in that list. 

Lastly, holy bejeezus, someone overpaid for Avalon! Great boat, I checked it out back in 2000(?) and again not long before she sold. I would've struggled to pay $100k for her. I guess the lesson is that on a long enough timeline every boat can find a sucker...I mean buyer. 

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My conclusion on Avalon was that it’s unsellable as well. Live and learn. Unless it’s some kind of tax donation/write-off play.

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NFW Avalon sold for that price. We looked really hard at buying her, and even a blind squirrel would have seen all the issues. 9 blind men surveying the boat would have concluded she was a major project boat, if not a white elephant.

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34 minutes ago, longy said:

NFW Avalon sold for that price. We looked really hard at buying her, and even a blind squirrel would have seen all the issues. 9 blind men surveying the boat would have concluded she was a major project boat, if not a white elephant.

I really liked the idea of Avalon.

Looked at that listing many times.

I guess reality did was not kind.

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7 hours ago, EarthBM said:

Another one that I quite liked was Pinta 52’ tri, sold in March for $225k after almost 3 years on the market. I almost went to see it, but “granite countertops” stopped me.

Ha! I’m flying to Italy in a couple weeks to sail with my buddy who bought her back to western Mexico. 

Pretty fucking excited about that, I am!

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17 hours ago, EarthBM said:

Chart 1: Depreciation stops at 20 years and at $200k. The two yellow dots are both Privilege 585s both sold in Jan’19, I suspect there is something dodgy about those sales, both in France. Otherwise pretty clean data.

288B30BA-BF99-4F14-A9AB-45C132167EF0.png

 

How do you determine the depreciation from this chart? 

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There are plenty of ways to lose money. Boats just happen to be fun!

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1 hour ago, Doug Halsey said:

How do you determine the depreciation from this chart? 

A couple of ways.

1. Fit an exponential or log regression line. 

2. Paraphrase Anna Karenina: “Happy catamarans are all alike; every unhappy catamaran is unhappy in its own way.” Meaning that the most expensive boats at any age are comparable over time, so  by drawing the green boundary line you are comparing apples to apples, with the understanding that sometimes things go pear-shaped and you get on the red line trajectory:

98C361EC-C994-4929-AA95-58ABBA1DD0C3.jpeg

 

3. Draw a downhill skier in Aspen, CO:

E24DC507-6274-46DA-ABC0-08E45036953B.jpeg

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1 hour ago, EarthBM said:

A couple of ways.

1. Fit an exponential or log regression line. 

2. Paraphrase Anna Karenina: “Happy catamarans are all alike; every unhappy catamaran is unhappy in its own way.” Meaning that the most expensive boats at any age are comparable over time, so  by drawing the green boundary line you are comparing apples to apples, with the understanding that sometimes things go pear-shaped and you get on the red line trajectory:

98C361EC-C994-4929-AA95-58ABBA1DD0C3.jpeg

 

3. Draw a downhill skier in Aspen, CO:

E24DC507-6274-46DA-ABC0-08E45036953B.jpeg

How do you know the depreciation without knowing the original price? Are you assuming they are all the same?

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1 hour ago, EarthBM said:

...

2. Paraphrase Anna Karenina: “Happy catamarans are all alike; every unhappy catamaran is unhappy in its own way.” Meaning that the most expensive boats at any age are comparable over time, so  by drawing the green boundary line you are comparing apples to apples, with the understanding that sometimes things go pear-shaped and you get on the red line trajector

This is the fundamental assumption that you have to make, that 35 year old cat is comparable to a 5 year old cat. I just don’t think that is true. I do think it may be true to say you can compare a 10 year old to a 20 year old.

In most (many?) established products in a competitive market there is incremental creeping upward in the “utility” of the product that is not captured in traditional “inflation or deflation metrics”. My 2010s vehicles are way more reliable, safer and better equipped than the vehicles I could buy in the 70s but none of that would be captured in simple price info.

Arguably the high end catamaran market has been “improving” much faster than established products like cars.

I would say using the above “depreciation” data for boats over 25 is nearly useless and starts to be relatively useful for boats under 20 years although each younger cohort does seam to have more “utility” so some of the depreciation would still be “less value”. So without looking in more detail at individually comparable boats – it’s hard to make the case that depreciation “flattens out” at 20.  For more validating data:

A search for >49’ and sailing cat 34-36 years old produces 2 hits, Sebago repurposed as day sailor (and insanely priced at $300, and A Spronk priced at $149K. The Spronk is really the only comparable and it is an ultra spartan plywood boat (love it for what it is but luxury it ain’t).

For 29-31 year old produces 6 hits and the first sign of a “production or series built” – the cheapest at $149k is an almost Wharram style 54’ looks like a lot of fun, a bit more comfort than the Spronk but still maybe comparable...then we move to the Lagoon 55 and the CPA 57 – both fiberglass and the interiors would not be out of place in a nice urban apartment. Neither of these two could you compare to the Spronk. The big jump up (80’ and 105’) not really comparables.

For 24 – 26 year old now getting some comparable volume with 10 hits grouped in size 51-57’ and ranging from luxury / condo end Lagoon and Privilege to spartan performance Outremer (Spronk like in sensibilities but production quality and reliability seem higher).

For 19 – 21 year old up now you have a market 25 hits and starting to be comparable with above group – some “outliers” but otherwise a grouping at the condo end (FP, Voyage, Lagoon) and a grouping around more spartan performance (Outremer and Berkstresser)

For 14-16 year old – – 25 hits, much more consistently comparables with a performance grouping and luxury grouping.

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6 hours ago, KC375 said:

This is the fundamental assumption that you have to make, that 35 year old cat is comparable to a 5 year old cat. I just don’t think that is true. I do think it may be true to say you can compare a 10 year old to a 20 year old.

In most (many?) established products in a competitive market there is incremental creeping upward in the “utility” of the product that is not captured in traditional “inflation or deflation metrics”. My 2010s vehicles are way more reliable, safer and better equipped than the vehicles I could buy in the 70s but none of that would be captured in simple price info.

Arguably the high end catamaran market has been “improving” much faster than established products like cars.

I would say using the above “depreciation” data for boats over 25 is nearly useless and starts to be relatively useful for boats under 20 years although each younger cohort does seam to have more “utility” so some of the depreciation would still be “less value”. So without looking in more detail at individually comparable boats – it’s hard to make the case that depreciation “flattens out” at 20. 

Good points.

Yes, product innovation makes for faster depreciation. The question is whether a 25 year old boat A now is more different from a 5 year old boat B now than that boat B will be different from the future 5 year old boat C in 20 years time. It seems that the pace of innovation is not slowing (foils, materials, rigs), so I'd say today's 5 year old boat will depreciate just as fast or faster as the boat A depreciated over the last 20 years. 

What happens after 20 years is tricky. For large boats maintenance (think replacement sails) doesn't slow down. So I can see situations where some large (especially racing) boats just won't sell at any price. The data, however imperfect, gives me some comfort that a sensible 20y old bot will keep its value (at around $200k) if properly maintained though. 

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But yes, the future is ever uncertain. Maybe depreciation is about to spike. There is a lot more cats about to enter the 20y+ market. Those that were built on the back of interest spike around The Race in 2000. Bought in 2000s with the optimism and the money from home equity loans. By the baby boomers (blue line in 2000s) who now became the red line and have to sell them to Gen X (blue line now):

5B3EAC29-EC10-4B54-A80C-0E16CC167AC9.jpeg

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15 hours ago, EarthBM said:

But yes, the future is ever uncertain. Maybe depreciation is about to spike. There is a lot more cats about to enter the 20y+ market. Those that were built on the back of interest spike around The Race in 2000. Bought in 2000s with the optimism and the money from home equity loans. By the baby boomers (blue line in 2000s) who now became the red line and have to sell them to Gen X (blue line now):

5B3EAC29-EC10-4B54-A80C-0E16CC167AC9.jpeg

And pushing the other direction, these nasty Caribbean storms are depleting inventory of used boats.

image.png.c42acf377d67b9d15dcd5aec3476b2ad.png

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6 hours ago, socalrider said:

And pushing the other direction, these nasty Caribbean storms are depleting inventory of used boats.

image.png.c42acf377d67b9d15dcd5aec3476b2ad.png

The one still floating in the upper right corner looks decent!

Caribbean storms are nothing now, they’ve affected the marked 5 and 10 years ago and will affect in 5 and 10 years just as much.

The depreciation curve is what it is.

YW and soldboats.com are doing everyone a disservice by hiding the data.

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29 minutes ago, EarthBM said:

The one still floating in the upper right corner looks decent!

Caribbean storms are nothing now, they’ve affected the marked 5 and 10 years ago and will affect in 5 and 10 years just as much.

The depreciation curve is what it is.

YW and soldboats.com are doing everyone a disservice by hiding the data.

I kinda have to disagree. Irma was totally unprecedented in its damage. The entire cat market was transformed. It basically killed the Catana brand (in favor of Bali by Catana). The charter cat market has exploded. Order books were sold out in a matter of weeks. No hurricane that I know of changed the market nearly as much. And the effects will still be felt. How many "hurricane damaged" boats will try to sneak past buyers? There is a pile of garbage out there now. 

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11 hours ago, soma said:

I kinda have to disagree. Irma was totally unprecedented in its damage. The entire cat market was transformed. It basically killed the Catana brand (in favor of Bali by Catana). The charter cat market has exploded. Order books were sold out in a matter of weeks. No hurricane that I know of changed the market nearly as much. And the effects will still be felt. How many "hurricane damaged" boats will try to sneak past buyers? There is a pile of garbage out there now. 

Soma seems clear Irma has had a real impact on the market in general. Why/how did it kill Catana? I can see how it created demand for the condomaran like offering filled by Bali but how did it affect the more performance segment addressed by Catana?

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1 hour ago, KC375 said:

Soma seems clear Irma has had a real impact on the market in general. Why/how did it kill Catana? I can see how it created demand for the condomaran like offering filled by Bali but how did it affect the more performance segment addressed by Catana?

 I made a visit to the Catana HQ when I was boat shopping. They had about 10 brokerage boats there. As part of my visit I did a tour of the factory and the line. I was told that they were making so much money on each Bali, and they could make them so quickly, that they'd begun refunding build slot deposits for the Catanas. Factory space was finite, and whoever could fulfill charter cat orders got the contract. To speed things up they killed Catana. 

It was interesting, we were discussing the arc of Catana vs Outremer. Once upon a time they competed head-to-head in the exact same market. Catana branched into the market segment below their native market (at minimal investment) and they were slaying it. Outremer, on the other hand, went upmarket (at HUGE expense) and found a radioactive, barren wasteland. 

If the goal is to make money, then Catana made the right bet. If the goal is make great boats then GLY won. I wouldn't consider a Bali a good boat, but it is a moneymaker. 

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35 minutes ago, soma said:

 I made a visit to the Catana HQ when I was boat shopping. They had about 10 brokerage boats there. As part of my visit I did a tour of the factory and the line. I was told that they were making so much money on each Bali, and they could make them so quickly, that they'd begun refunding build slot deposits for the Catanas. Factory space was finite, and whoever could fulfill charter cat orders got the contract. To speed things up they killed Catana. 

It was interesting, we were discussing the arc of Catana vs Outremer. Once upon a time they competed head-to-head in the exact same market. Catana branched into the market segment below their native market (at minimal investment) and they were slaying it. Outremer, on the other hand, went upmarket (at HUGE expense) and found a radioactive, barren wasteland. 

If the goal is to make money, then Catana made the right bet. If the goal is make great boats then GLY won. I wouldn't consider a Bali a good boat, but it is a moneymaker. 

I thought that might be the answer. I believe the most denigrated boat on SA is the MacGregor 26. While the MacGregor 65 gets some grief about structural integrity and “private jet” styling it is more of a sailor’s boat.

As I understand it the smashing commercial success of the Mac26 (and other “powersailers” >30,000 units produced) made it irrational to divert any factory space or attention to the Mac 65 (~100 units produced). {I’m sure there are folks on this forum who know the story better than I}

Sometimes the market wins while the aficionados lose.

If you are not effectively serving the “mass” market you put yourself in a dangerous position. The low cost producer that finds a way to add “quality” or high end features onto a low cost base is fatal to the niche luxury product. (cars, cameras, calculators, computers...).

Shifting the resources to maximize return on capital is the smart move. The really smart entrepreneur then goes on to say “now that I’ve got a larger scale operation how do I turn these economic advantages to serving the premium segment from a low cost base”. (Toyota/Lexus, Honda/Acura, VW/Audi/Porsche,...). Once Bali production approaches its sustainable level maybe Catana can come back with a performance offering on the back of Bali purchasing and production scale. If that happens then Outremer and many other purveyors of high end low volume Cats might find themselves in an awkward place.

In the meantime I’m not looking to buy a Bali.  

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2017 is also the first year when Catana’s earnings turned sustainably positive, tripling its share price.

Still well below the hey days of pre-2008 (speaking of 10-20y old boats coming to the used market).

 

24E554E9-4D04-4450-A1E9-4CC5323B4579.png

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Well said Soma. Cruising boats that sail well will far outlast the joy of a cheap buy. One nice reach on a full moon night, with the stars out, and damn, money don't matter

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Wiley put Q3 sales out. Some pick up in the 49’+ segment sales (number):

2EA58B7C-D44F-421B-B379-911589FF1CE4.png

 

Notable sales:

Length

Name

Year

Sold

On mkt

62

Catamaran Simonis 60

2012

$884,250

          0.17 

59

Looping 60

2011

$457,758

          1.83 

55

Switch 55

2006

$560,000

          1.17 

49

McConaghy MC50

2019

1737000

          0.25 

48

Outremer 45

2017

$705,165

          0.17 

48

Outremer 45

2016

$686,637

          0.25 

47

Lerouge Barramundi 470

2010

$245,228

          0.50 

45

Corsair C37RS

2008

$159,834

          0.92 

41

Stealth 12.6

2013

$263,000

          1.08 

41

Stealth 12.6

2013

$220,000

          0.42 

40

Jutson Formula (Pro) 40

1987

$58,900

          1.00

 

q3’19 depreciation curve looks consistent with history:

 

CB9C211F-9636-4D57-9B10-DD8AFA2D366C.png

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I think depreciation is little bit more complicated and I guess it would correlate alot with the "avg. time on the market".

E.g. Both Outremers 45 got sold very quickly, we can assume that sellers didn't have to drive down the price as strong as some of the others.

Its the same with Used cars, different brands/models have totally different depreciation curves. E.g. Mercedes AMGs are the worst of the worst. they can lose 80% in 8 years.

While Porsche 911 are remarkably stable for a high priced performance car.

My observation is that the Boat brands with a true sailor following have much more price stability then the Charter brands.

E.g. Foam core is massively rewarded by knowledgeable sailors. And those same people don't bother so much about outdated looks. 

 

And on a more general note I find some of the prices in the industry to be all over the place.

HH OC50 baseprice 1.3m usd

Seawind 1600 for 859k usd  

Slyder 49 for 722k usd

marsaudon-composite TS5 for 711k usd

Outremer 51 for 853k usd

ITA 14.99 for 975k

McConaghy Mc50 for 1.648m usd 

Neel 51 for 700k usd

 

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On 10/2/2019 at 2:15 PM, babylon said:

Its the same with Used cars, different brands/models have totally different depreciation curves. E.g. Mercedes AMGs are the worst of the worst. they can lose 80% in 8 years.

While Porsche 911 are remarkably stable for a high priced performance car.

I think the best parallel to Porsche 911 are boats that managed to build a one-design class following. Think J-boats.

If an active TS5 racing class emerged they could attain 911 status. Or if Outremer managed to organize an active circuit. Probably won’t happen.

Another factor that boats bought at the start of this decade have to contend with are cheap pesos, rands, and Aussie tugriks... the chart shows Chilean (red), South African (white), and Oz (blue) currencies against the US dollar, normalized to 100 in 2011:

The Rand costs at Bongers Marine are now less than half than in 2011... Marsaudon should seize the opportunity and take over the entire market with $500k made-in-Cape-Town TS5s...

34F94F78-60DE-4827-920C-F4CDDBEA5DC6.png

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I think among the cruising cat Gunboat is in the 911 category where the value is quite stable.

Outremer also has quite good price stability, I recently saw all the Outremer sales of the last 2 years and avg. time to sell for the "modern" outremer's is 4 months, (industry avg. is 12moths). As with Porsche you buy a "part of the family" with a 911 there are a lot of 911 fan clubs and tourings that are fun. It quite similar with Outremer, also the people that are buying an Outremer are usually more passioned about sailing then an Leopard of Lagoon owner. The Outremer Cup is already a step in the right direction. Outremer also stay true to there principles with narrow hulls and doesn't get corrupted by trying to chase bigger marketshares with charterable design like Catana did. 

TS5 also could achieve that level certainly but more of them have to be build and more stories need to be created about these boat's, winning races, stories of fast cruising couples/families, constant praise of the quality by the owners.

Regarding market opportunity, I think there is certainly one. Outremer is quite expensive and I feel they could cut the prices drastically by moving the production to a country with cheaper labor, there should be enough opportunities around the globe. I think it should be possible to build an Outremer 51 for 500k and be profitable at that and aim for a high production output. Maybe use a more utilitarian design e.g. for the interior that looks decent but is not as pricy as the wood veneer in outremer and have the wood veneer as options.

The labour costs in France are so high that it's quite mind boggling to see such a labour intensive product beeing build there, a product that is made to move big distances that could be build anywhere (Chile, South Africa, Vietnam, Thailand, China, Poland, Tunesia)

 

 

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the TS5 basic price is 650k euro, but its the most barebones config I have ever seen on a cruising cat. Things that are considered an option: Davits, Antifouling, Anchor, Chain, Mooring bouys. It comes with no a navigational electronics at all. No electric winches.

Also the Carbon Crossbeam option (26950 euro) is mandatory if you want to get Gennaker, Staysail oder Code 0 Hardware. 

All this upgrades will to get to cruisable mode will be 70-100k 

My real worry is the weight of the boat, the Light displacement is 8.6t (11t Max) but thats without all those essential options. So once you add anchor, chain, dinghy, more batteries, solar, more sails, fridge, full fuel tanks, full watertanks etc. there won't be much room left for personal items, toys, and provisioning for extensive cruising. Outremer hits a better balance of performance vs comfort imo

TS5 - Options.pdf

TS5 - DT.pdf

TS5Brochure.pdf

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1 hour ago, babylon said:

the TS5 basic price is 650k euro, but its the most barebones config I have ever seen on a cruising cat. Things that are considered an option: Davits, Antifouling, Anchor, Chain, Mooring bouys. It comes with no a navigational electronics at all. No electric winches.

Also the Carbon Crossbeam option (26950 euro) is mandatory if you want to get Gennaker, Staysail oder Code 0 Hardware. 

All this upgrades will to get to cruisable mode will be 70-100k 

My real worry is the weight of the boat, the Light displacement is 8.6t (11t Max) but thats without all those essential options. So once you add anchor, chain, dinghy, more batteries, solar, more sails, fridge, full fuel tanks, full watertanks etc. there won't be much room left for personal items, toys, and provisioning for extensive cruising. Outremer hits a better balance of performance vs comfort imo

TS5 - Options.pdf

TS5 - DT.pdf

TS5Brochure.pdf

More like 200k euros imo.  Lifelines are optional as are electronics.  And it's 40k+ just for the hardware to fly downwind sails, not including the sails.

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I think that’s a bad business choice, excluding so much from the base spec. It’s great to have a low base price but I feel like it’s a big turn off nickel and diming buyers like that. 

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Just a lot of work had to be done inside and outside, way over and above regular TLC. Reportedly the buyer was very comfortable with doing the work.

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2 hours ago, Sand crab said:

Going back in this thread a bit, what was wrong with the Wormwood?

Major structural repairs to both beams, lots of cosmetics, everything we looked at went on the job list.

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Update... Chilean Peso down 5% more since last week... -40% since 2011-2013 levels... give Alwoplast a call...

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Another slow day... I see a handful of Sunreef 62s popped up on YW. Not a boat I’d consider but the model seems pretty consistent over the years and there are 22 listed between 2008 and 2018 model years... enough for a chart!

One way to look at the dispersion of prices is that boats are maintained differently and the best-fit exponential blue line (8.12% depreciation per year) is the unbiased way of looking at depreciation. Another is that sellers differ in their optimism about how much their boats are worth — there is no upper limit to that optimism while the true market line skims the bottom of the offered prices. Then depreciation is about 10% a year.

Of course these are listed prices (ask), offer prices (bid) are somewhere below those lines, with traded prices in the middle. 

7561C04B-71DF-4E6E-AD96-97AA524CFF31.png

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One can generalize the cat market as Boomers selling to Gen X now, who will then be selling to Millenials in about 10-15 years.

US Federal Reserve publishes a neat table showing wealth distribution across generations over time.

Below percentages show what share of US household wealth was held by each generation at the same ages (33 and 47). 47 is the mid-point of Gen X now. The Boomers at 47 held 42% of total household wealth. Gen X holds 16%. Millenials are too young yet, but judging by their share at age 33, somewhere below 10% when they reach 47 seems likely. 
 

The implication is that today’s buyers have less than half of relative purchasing power at 47, compared to the sellers at that age. They will the try to resell to next generation’s buyers who’ll have half as much again. I think this answers a lot of questions about “why sailing is less popular” or “why doesn’t my boat sell” or “what resale value can I expect on the boat I buy today”. Happy Thanksgiving!

928EA3D8-5AEB-4DAD-92AC-00EEBDBDF989.jpeg

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1 hour ago, EarthBM said:

One can generalize the cat market as Boomers selling to Gen X now, who will then be selling to Millenials in about 10-15 years.

US Federal Reserve publishes a neat table showing wealth distribution across generations over time.

Below percentages show what share of US household wealth was held by each generation at the same ages (33 and 47). 47 is the mid-point of Gen X now. The Boomers at 47 held 42% of total household wealth. Gen X holds 16%. Millenials are too young yet, but judging by their share at age 33, somewhere below 10% when they reach 47 seems likely. 
 

The implication is that today’s buyers have less than half of relative purchasing power at 47, compared to the sellers at that age. They will the try to resell to next generation’s buyers who’ll have half as much again. I think this answers a lot of questions about “why sailing is less popular” or “why doesn’t my boat sell” or “what resale value can I expect on the boat I buy today”. Happy Thanksgiving!

928EA3D8-5AEB-4DAD-92AC-00EEBDBDF989.jpeg

Some interesting data but like most data leads to more questions.

I think the general point holds. There will be selling pressure rather than buying pressure as Boomers exit sailing. If you want to make money better to invest in old age care facilities than large sailboats.

It makes sense to classify the boomers roughly as they are - births following WWII basically by those of an age to serve in WWII - corresponded with a noted increase in fecundity. For the purposes of transfer of assets based on age comparisons to Gen X and Millenials then we immediately hit an inconsistency - 19 years of data compared to two tranches of 15 years of data.

Boomers are generally said to be about 75 million and Gen X about 50 million people. So if you want to compare 20 years of births purchasing power to 15 years you would need to round up Gen X by about a third (stealing from Millenials) to say ~ 65 million and about 22% of wealth - still smaller and poorer than Boomers...but maybe not as much smaller as the per centage of wealth would suggest.

When the baby boom started the US population was 141 million so adding in 75 million boomers represented about 53%...in 1965 the US population was about 191 million so Gen X represented about 26%, so 42% wealth over 53% of population is .65 compared to Gen X 16% of wealth over 26% of population you get .62...i.e. on an individual basis gen x has about the same share of wealth as Boomers and normalized for number of years of birth Gen X total purchasing power would be about 15% smaller.

Of course what really really maters is not the averages but probably the disposable income per capita of the top 20% of the population. Even amonsgt the top 20% the problem may be that the money is getting concentrated at the top - so lots of money but not a lot of people.

 

 

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Good points, I was just taking the Federal Reserve’s numbers for the generations in their table. They also make the same table for age cohorts.

Not as neatly mapping to buyers and sellers (would be better to shift both 5 years older), but the Fed’s 40-54 and 55-69 cohorts are close. And the same number of years in both. When current sellers were buyers in 2000 they controlled 36.1% of wealth. The same buyers now control 20.7%.

8BEF9BDC-7D4C-4812-9A95-FE1E5EA1DE8C.jpeg

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32 minutes ago, EarthBM said:

Good points, I was just taking the Federal Reserve’s numbers for the generations in their table. They also make the same table for age cohorts.

Not as neatly mapping to buyers and sellers (would be better to shift both 5 years older), but the Fed’s 40-54 and 55-54 cohorts are close. And the same number of years in both. When current sellers were buyers in 2000 they controlled 36.1% of wealth. The same buyers now control 20.7%.

8BEF9BDC-7D4C-4812-9A95-FE1E5EA1DE8C.jpeg

These numbers are easier to work with and we still come up with about the same answer - the younger cohort have about 16% less "real" wealth. 1999 US GDP in 2010$ was $12.12 trillion and in 2018 was $17.84  36% of 1999 GDP ends up being about 16% smaller than 21% of 2019 GDP in constant dollars.

So the buying age group has about 16% less wealth than the selling age group had when they were buyers. But I think we have another effect as well. That wealth is getting concentrated in fewer hands. So the top end of wealth can afford even more. So there may be a robust market for the multimillion dollar boat but the merely half million dollar boat will have fewer buyers looking at it than it would have had 20 years ago.

Everyone pay attention to that point. You can explain to your spouse that you are buying the Gunboat 68 instead of the Moorings 4500 because it will have better resale value given changing demographics and wealth distribution.

image.png

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Yes, from this logic Gunboats should be selling well. Probably the thinking behind Outremer buying the brand. And yet their resales seem, errr, difficult. Maybe they are sold to the lower end of the deca-millionaire class (start-up founders, corporate mandarins) when new, but then drop out into a void when sold used, because the single-millionaire class (finance, medical, lawyers) is hollowed out. Also the top 0.1%ers have a lot of competing claims for their time — they are cash-rich but time-poor. Boats are time-consuming.

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12 minutes ago, EarthBM said:

Yes, from this logic Gunboats should be selling well. Probably the thinking behind Outremer buying the brand. And yet their resales seem, errr, difficult. Maybe they are sold to the lower end of the deca-millionaire class (start-up founders, corporate mandarins) when new, but then drop out into a void when sold used, because the single-millionaire class (finance, medical, lawyers) is hollowed out. Also the top 0.1%ers have a lot of competing claims for their time — they are cash-rich but time-poor. Boats are time-consuming.

And I'm not sure I really believe what I wrote, I was kind of practicing out loud my spousal explanation for why we should get a fancier boat, not cause I want it but cause it will leave more for the grandkids...doesn't sound all the believable but maybe with a straight face...

 

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45 minutes ago, soma said:

Interesting numbers in a few ways. Catana is doing well commercially, 67% growth is great in any business in any industry. More than 12 months in the order book is also a great situation to be in.

The other thing that jumps out - how small the industry is. Catana is apparently number three in its sector globally and the turnover is €100 million. For a "global" manufacturing company that is just tiny. Catana might be small enough to qualify as a small business under the US US Small Business Administration.

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2 hours ago, soma said:

To me this emphasises how what I love seems so unloved by the rest of the world. Catana is succeeding by moving towards the condomaran market away from the performance market. But even with their success Catana (number three globally in its segment - presumably sailing multihulls) is tiny - Catana's annual turnover is about the same size as the third quarter profit of Brunswick marine. Yes about three quarters of Brunswick sales are from engines but the boat segment sold about twice as much in the third quarter as Catana did in the year. When I think of the catamarans I want to spend years with my family on....this is not what comes to mind:

image.thumb.png.e5b1906ce6dbad88e9efb7174a2ba487.png

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Yep, the market has spoken and the word is “condomarans”... 95% of time at anchor — no brainer really

Catana is indeed small — just 10% of Beneteau, even if the growth is realized... Annual revenues in €m:

A57443C7-E939-4EF4-8CE0-712DA45DFE4C.jpeg

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Does anyone have a graph of sailboat brands by sales? Beneteau Group at $1.2B, Catana at $100m, Gunboat at $7m. Where does Swan fall? Oyster? Bavaria? Catalina? 

Obviously, the big money is in building “bad” boats, but any other conclusions? 

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Everyone else is private,  Nautor Swan is private, as is GLY. Oyster went bankrupt last year, privately owned now. Reported £83m order book at the time. Bavaria went bankrupt last year too...

The conclusion is that the same demographic factors discussed above are wiping our capital invested in making new boats as a business, but there is always someone who buys them in bankruptcy and continues the struggle.

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12 minutes ago, EarthBM said:

Everyone else is private,  Nautor Swan is private, as is GLY. Oyster went bankrupt last year, privately owned now. Reported £83m order book at the time. Bavaria went bankrupt last year too...

The conclusion is that the same demographic factors discussed above are wiping our capital invested in making new boats as a business, but there is always someone who buys them in bankruptcy and continues the struggle.

GLY was around $20m last I heard. 

Sorry for a derail, but I can’t help but wonder how Safe Harbors is financing their activities and how they’ll stay afloat the next downturn. They’ve made quite a few large moves. I’d imagine they’re leveraged up to their eyeballs. 

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Safe Harbor Marinas? Looks like a private company too, but it’s a lot easier to mortgage assets with recurring revenues, like slips. In the language of debt financing they are effectively the most senior to other cash outflows in boat ownership. The ranking of cash flows in terms of disappearance in a downturn:

1. New and used boat purchases

2. Capital maintenance (like standing rigging, new sails)

3. Recurring maintenance (bottom cleaning, zincs)

4. Slip rent and taxes.

So now we see 1 going through capital destruction, 2 is next (sail lofts not a great business I think), 3 and 4 will probably survive. Assume you are looking at an opportunity with SHM?

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FWIW, I think the capital Investment needed to produce $1k in slip rental cash flows is a fraction of that in real estate. There’re are even mooring balls in Newport Beach that cost $60k for the right to pay a $50-100 rental to the city govt. Some mooring balls in Avalon (Catalina Is) sell for $100,000s... Good business if you know how to “work with” the local government. It’s kind of a no man’s land because sea bottom below high tide is state property.

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2 hours ago, soma said:

GLY was around $20m last I heard. 

Sorry for a derail, but I can’t help but wonder how Safe Harbors is financing their activities and how they’ll stay afloat the next downturn. They’ve made quite a few large moves. I’d imagine they’re leveraged up to their eyeballs. 

I think the Marina business has much better fundamentals and more options than the niche high end sailboat business.

One analogy is the ski resort business - the money generally is not in running the lifts or selling ski gear, its in developing the real estate. Safe Harbour is in the real estate business.

If the money in boat building is in the condomaran end of the business the marinas are even further along into the condo end of the business.

Safe harbour certainly has been on an acquisition spree aiming for an IPO. I’m surprised they’ve not gone to the market yet. It would be very reasonable to ask what happens when the inevitable downturn comes along (long overdue). If you are getting involved ask to look at the financials and ask tough questions about liquidity and capital adequacy with 20 or 30% reduction in revenue. If they are worth working for they will respect you for it. Take a look at the track record of the management team. Seems like a combination of experience and some bright young things. I’d want to probe which members of the senior management team have had senior operational roles (ideally in a highly leveraged business) during a downturn.  Take a look at the investors. I didn’t do much of a scan. Weatherford (in on three rounds) does not impress – they may be good but seem more like merely well connected Florida types rather than proven PE players. American Infrastructure seems much stronger, Koch have a decent track record even if not loved by liberals.

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On 11/30/2019 at 9:08 PM, soma said:

Does anyone have a graph of sailboat brands by sales? Beneteau Group at $1.2B, Catana at $100m, Gunboat at $7m. Where does Swan fall? Oyster? Bavaria? Catalina? 

Obviously, the big money is in building “bad” boats, but any other conclusions? 

Nautor's revenue was 45M€: https://www.asiakastieto.fi/yritykset/fi/oy-nautor-ab/07723164/taloustiedot

Baltic's 29M€: https://www.asiakastieto.fi/yritykset/fi/baltic-yachts-oy-ab-ltd/07843270/taloustiedot

Profit... not so much...

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1 hour ago, Upp3 said:

Baltic’s bottom line will be looking better than Swan that’s for sure. 
Oyster are still tidying up after the takeover, so any figures issued won’t be a real reflection. 

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Gotta love Nordic transparency...
Both are losing €4-5m a year for 2-3 years running.

The way to make a small fortune in sailing is to start with a large fortune... In case you thought that the demographic factors discussed earlier are just abstract theoretical BS...

The reason why companies go bankrupt so rapidly is because the equity cushion is thin, like 5-20%. So with each bankruptcy it just resets by wiping out the previous equity holders and making the debt holders new equity holders.

A used boat can be thought of as a company with 100% equity (assuming it’s not financed). So that 100% keeps depreciating, but there is no bankruptcy-like trigger event forcing to mark to reality. So you end up with gigantic 40-70% gaps between the listed price and where the boat can be sold.

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1 hour ago, EarthBM said:

Gotta love Nordic transparency...
Both are losing €4-5m a year for 2-3 years running.

The way to make a small fortune in sailing is to start with a large fortune... In case you thought that the demographic factors discussed earlier are just abstract theoretical BS...

The reason why companies go bankrupt so rapidly is because the equity cushion is thin, like 5-20%. So with each bankruptcy it just resets by wiping out the previous equity holders and making the debt holders new equity holders.

A used boat can be thought of as a company with 100% equity (assuming it’s not financed). So that 100% keeps depreciating, but there is no bankruptcy-like trigger event forcing to mark to reality. So you end up with gigantic 40-70% gaps between the listed price and where the boat can be sold.

I could not find financials in a language I can read. Any idea what EBITDA for them is? Would be strong indicator of whether these are viable businesses that are over geared or just crap businesses. If EBIDTA is generally positive then, yes someone may need to take a haircut - at least equity and maybe after that mark down some of the debt but the business will go on. Without positive EBITDA margin then you start to look for miracles (or the exit).

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They seem to persistently survive on zero or negative equity. Which makes me think that reported losses are just a part of some tax optimization strategy, with true profits paid out offshore. For example as design licensing or marketing fees. 
 

A couple of similar non-market factors seen in used boat prices:

- wife/divorce... the boat is part of a divorce settlement but the Captain gets to use it until it’s sold, the price is set to never sell.

- destitute retirement... the liveaboard seller has a high fixed cost of repotting himself on land, sets the list price to that, regardless of where the boat can sell.

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On 11/6/2019 at 5:27 PM, babylon said:

The labour costs in France are so high that it's quite mind boggling to see such a labour intensive product beeing build there, a product that is made to move big distances that could be build anywhere (Chile, South Africa, Vietnam, Thailand, China, Poland, Tunesia)

There you go... 

Catana is buying Magic Yachts in Tunisia

Will make Bali range there, double Catana range production in France...

Too bad it’s not Marsaudon increasing TS5 production...

 

A no brainer really, and the stock market likes it... means they probably didn’t overpay:

E7969845-E07F-4DF1-BC3A-B68DDC4D4D80.png

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19 hours ago, EarthBM said:

 

Too bad it’s not Marsaudon increasing TS5 production...

 

 

I think Marsaudon can confidently double its production capacity now. Last time I asked them (before the ARC) there soones delivery would be mid 2021. Now after 3 TS5's in the Top5 of the ARC, the orders will go through the roof. What an amazing boat. 

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7 minutes ago, babylon said:

I think Marsaudon can confidently double its production capacity now. Last time I asked them (before the ARC) there soones delivery would be mid 2021. Now after 3 TS5's in the Top5 of the ARC, the orders will go through the roof. What an amazing boat. 

here is to hoping they use that demand to achieve scale to drive down cost to achieve more scale and market share rather than the more tempting raise prices to pad margin.

Which is the right answer for the shareholder depends on the total market size and their relative cost position but the right answer for the market/consumer is go for scale and market share by holding the price down.....

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The market can grow. Visionaries create markets. Think Lasers, Hobie Cats, J-boats. If there is a thriving one-design circuit you can cannibalize Outremer and Catana sales, and then convert some condomaran buyers. TS5 can become the 911 of cats, not the overpriced over complicated Gunboats or less overpriced by somewhat directionless Outremers. They can probably sell 100 or more this way. No BS, no giving away TS5s to youtubers, no spending on costly publicity and boat shows. Just drive a hard volume bargain with carbon spar and sail makers, don’t customize too much. And above all keep it TS. Less is more.
 

The real issue is execution... I’d reach out to Alwoplast now that their peso is 800 to the buck. Or South Africa. They need to move quickly. Producing 4-5 TS5s a year in Lorient won’t get them the critical mass before something new takes the attention away.

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It does seem like the time to act is now. I'll be interested to see how they act. I certainly hope they go for market share over margin and supporting growth of a circuit would be great but I'm not a shareholder.

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Marsaudon Composite had a change of owners 2 years ago. The new owner's are two business guys and as I understand their ambition is to grow the company and brand. So I would be surprised if they don't use that Hype cycle to become solid place in the cruising catamaran market. And they still have some room to increase further demand. E.g. Give an option for a stylish interior like the Dazcat has. Still light and minimalistic but just nicer. 

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On 9/20/2019 at 3:18 PM, EarthBM said:

288B30BA-BF99-4F14-A9AB-45C132167EF0.png

 

 

My earlier conclusion was that cats stop depreciating at 20 years old and $200k. But seeing ads like this I’m not sure that 20y is the sweet spot — you have to start replacing apparently EVERYTHING in 15-20y cats. Look at the description: https://www.yachtworld.com/boats/2003/catana-582-3618987/

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I don't want to be contrarian but 13 years for standing and running rigging seems ok.  A lot of the other stuff could need replacement after heavy use for 13-15 years.  Its in Florida's sun and salt air after all. The only alarm for me is replacement of the electric stuff and wiring.  

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On 12/18/2019 at 3:30 PM, eric1207 said:

I don't want to be contrarian but 13 years for standing and running rigging seems ok.  A lot of the other stuff could need replacement after heavy use for 13-15 years.  Its in Florida's sun and salt air after all. The only alarm for me is replacement of the electric stuff and wiring.  

How about the Rimas quality extra caulking around the forward windows? Or the white tape over the empty holes in the cockpit?

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Like it or not old multis keep losing value after 20 years.

Marsaudon should give the Corsair production model a hard look.

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Yeah, the caulking is a bit agricultural.  I wonder what was in those taped up holes.  I didn't look at the pics, just skimmed the text.  

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Interesting sales in Q4. I would really like to know more about Schionning 1500 G-force that sold in Portugal...

The two 47’ Catanas give a good illustration of depreciation for a quality brand name cat at exactly 7% per year over 11 years. 
 

Of the cats currently on the market the Outremer 55 Light in the Bahamas went from listed to pending pretty quickly because it’s priced right, at high $200s.

B1783635-0F8D-4085-911C-881F9EBBDA57.jpeg
 

The depreciation curve is still consistent (only cats 49’ and longer in this scatterplot  chart, the $2m+ Privilege 64 is the prime candidate for ouch depreciation):

567495B9-A3E2-4840-A922-04B08D5D8673.png

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Forgot to mention... 18 sales of 49’ and longer cats were off the Q3 29-sale high, but still above 2017 and 2018 pace. I am less confident in these numbers because Wiley Sharp’s 2019 data show fewer Q1-Q3 sales than originally reported, so cross-sectional comparisons like price vs age are more reliable than the time series of the number of sales. Also that $2m+ Privilege was sold in Spain, so it may or may not include a tax dodge component in its price.

275909E4-6CC3-4DA1-8322-FF10EDEE07AC.png

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8 hours ago, EarthBM said:

Interesting sales in Q4. I would really like to know more about Schionning 1500 G-force that sold in Portugal...

The two 47’ Catanas give a good illustration of depreciation for a quality brand name cat at exactly 7% per year over 11 years. 
 

Of the cats currently on the market the Outremer 55 Light in the Bahamas went from listed to pending pretty quickly because it’s priced right, at high $200s.

B1783635-0F8D-4085-911C-881F9EBBDA57.jpeg
 

The depreciation curve is still consistent (only cats 49’ and longer in this scatterplot  chart, the $2m+ Privilege 64 is the prime candidate for ouch depreciation):

567495B9-A3E2-4840-A922-04B08D5D8673.png

With the limited data points I think it may be a bit overly confident to calculate a depreciation rate.  

Just too many variables and unknowns to calculate depreciation.

I do think you could make the case that it looks like the depreciation rate has been running at less than 7%.

7% would be the case if the 471 had a market value in 2009 of $813K. Was that the case in 2009?

If you are using the Catana 47 as a proxy for what a 11 year newer price is there are two problems with that.

First you have to assume there has been no inflation in boat prices over the last 11 years.

Second you have to assume that the 471 and 47 are interchangeable. I’m guessing that there has been progress in design in ergonomics and styling that may make the 47 more desirable than the 471.

 According to sailboatData.Com other attributes changed. The 47 has both a greater sail area and lower displacement giving a SA/Dis of ~25% more than the 471. The 47 uses a “carbon w/foam core” construction while the 471 uses “FG”  ...

If you assume that the 47 and 471 are interchangeable, identically equipped and comparable age adjusted maintenance and wear  and that there was a 2% inflation rate then the actual depreciation rate would be 5%.

Given that sailboatdata suggests the 47 is a more desirable boat than the 471 that would suggest an even lower depreciation rate....

But only two data points and no info about how equipped or maintained makes any conclusions pretty uncertain.

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Yep, it’s all a guess. It’s based on assuming that 2028 model year Catana 47X will be at least as much, or likely more, desirable compared to 2017 Catana 47, as 47 was compared to 2006 Catana 471. Its based on assuming that inflation in technology is a quaint last century concept. It’s based on assuming that catamaran popularity growth will be as strong over the next 11 years as the last 11 years (a challenging assumption with current demographics). It assumes that.......
 

as to the two data points... the slope of of the scatterplot’s frontier is -8.5%. The frontier represents the highest prices for any given year, a kind of a best case scenario for the stuff not going pear-shaped at the individual boat level.

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I’d choose the 471 any day over the 47. Catana has really cheapened their brand. There’s been a big push into the charter market (that’s been hugely profitable...but at the cost of quality. The older boats were built by crafstsman, the newer ones are plastic/CNC mass production boats. I also wouldn’t trust any of the displacement numbers.
 

But that may be beside the point. I don’t want to derail a great conversation. 

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Oh, and that O55 in the Bahanas was priced WAY below market. Someone got a great deal. 

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18 hours ago, EarthBM said:

Interesting sales in Q4. I would really like to know more about Schionning 1500 G-force that sold in Portugal...

The two 47’ Catanas give a good illustration of depreciation for a quality brand name cat at exactly 7% per year over 11 years. 
 

Of the cats currently on the market the Outremer 55 Light in the Bahamas went from listed to pending pretty quickly because it’s priced right, at high $200s.

B1783635-0F8D-4085-911C-881F9EBBDA57.jpeg
 

The depreciation curve is still consistent (only cats 49’ and longer in this scatterplot  chart, the $2m+ Privilege 64 is the prime candidate for ouch depreciation):

567495B9-A3E2-4840-A922-04B08D5D8673.png

Really good and usfull stuff.  This does not include trimarans, right - just cats?  Is there a similar work-up for tris?

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3 hours ago, soma said:

Oh, and that O55 in the Bahanas. 

Do you have any thoughts on the O64L in Grenada? The price is gravitating towards a clearing level — it will probably trade in mid/high $300s

1 hour ago, Wess said:

This does not include trimarans, right - just cats?

Just because there aren’t many tris >40’. I have some personal experience with my DF 35 that says 10%/yr depreciation is about right. Although with South African Rand depreciating -50% as well as Chilean Peso and Aussie$ both -30% during my ownership the last decade may have been on the weaker side. We’re also in the middle of the baby boomers “getting too old for this sht” wave. I love tris, they are the perfect sailboat. But even more so than “performance” cruising cats, they are in no man’s land. No liveaboard space (unless you got lucky with a life partner like the Spirit) and not that exciting performance-wise anymore now that foiling is maturing. So can’t think of a way to synthesize the info into a “market”. Just interesting individual stories. Will Rapido reach escape velocity? N53 looks like a one-off example of cool but expensive execution. Will anyone find a cheap CF rig for Hughes/Perry 63 (still very optimistically priced for a “project” boat)? Can anyone figure out how to make the costs of running Tritium make sense? How much did Buddy sell for and will ego keep Skateaway from finding its new life? Can the other Hughes 63 Atlantis rise again? What happened to Greg Lynn’s Girlfriend? Will we see epic stories from the ex-Anasazi  crew on Thunderbird, ages 2-60? How can Neel sell so many tris despite the looks? Did Epstein kill himself? I should stop here.

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LOL on Neel.  Answer is "into charter market where they do make sense."

Yea on the rest.  We love our tri.  Just enough performance such that day sailing is still fun and just enough livability that her two husband and wife nearly 60YO owners are happy to spend extended periods aboard.  But we are likely unique or nearly so.

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Tris are the best value BECAUSE their depreciation curves are so sharp. Finn/B53 was an absolute steal. Paradox at her trading price was a smokin deal. It’s true...not much room aboard, but they’ll blow the doors off of a “performance” cruising cat on the water. 
 

The Rapido is close to being a great boat...but it isn’t. The Neel is an f’in eyesore. But somewhere out there (still unbuilt) is a perfect tri. 

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I don't understand the hate against the Trimaran Liveaboard concept like Neel. I know they fckd up the build quality but the general concept of a Trimaran with a big living area makes alot of sense to me. I think if Outremer (Grand Large Yachting) would come out with a direct competitor but better build quality and pricerange of Outremer. It would be a huge success I think. 

In fact I predict that some of the producers are already working on a direct competitor. Neels business is booming (over 100 sold) even thought they had a lot of bad press in the sailing community. A wide living platform is very appealing. Also very good light wind performance. 

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29 minutes ago, babylon said:

A wide living platform is very appealing. 

Yes, that’s what catamarans offer. The downside are narrow hulls limiting efficient space use. A tri like Neel divides that hull space further. The sailing advantages of a tri are a more positive stability curve (mo’ heel = mo’ righting moment, until the main hull flies) and information (leeward ama) allowing sailing closer to the envelope. Neel seems compromised on either. Like a cat but with three narrow unlivable hulls. Think a TS5 would sail circles around Neels, that’s why Neels chose a different ARC route.

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The Chris White Hammerhead 54 looks pretty ideal for a big tri, but you can really see the compromises inherent to the design with only 2 cabins.  Living area similar to a 45' monohull, maybe less.  FAST!  

https://www.yachtworld.com/boats/1995/chris-white-hammerhead-54-3496746/

This is a great thread.  I wish the data went down to 40' cats though.  

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What do you guys think of the current used Outremer 45 (new era) (810k$, 750k$ 805k$) and Outremer 49 (835k$) on the market. 

To me it seems they are way overpriced, they all have rotating carbon masts and Kevlar rigging aswell as carbon bulkheads. But those options are usually not reflected in the selling price on the used market. 

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1 hour ago, soma said:

But somewhere out there (still unbuilt) is a perfect tri. 

Ha.  Its built.  We own it.  Perfect for us anyway.  For now LOL.

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28 minutes ago, socalrider said:

The Chris White Hammerhead 54 looks pretty ideal for a big tri, but you can really see the compromises inherent to the design with only 2 cabins.  Living area similar to a 45' monohull, maybe less.  FAST!  

https://www.yachtworld.com/boats/1995/chris-white-hammerhead-54-3496746/

This is a great thread.  I wish the data went down to 40' cats though.  

I remember that Hammerhead when it was for sale in 2011 for $300k or so. I was really tempted, but working in So Cal limited my docking options a lot.
 

here are the charts for 40-48’ cats (don’t have smaller). 2017-2019

 

E487279E-AC7D-4B15-A367-EB2AD6162717.png

D9BB0274-AB95-4DEA-9607-046AAF616992.png

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23 minutes ago, babylon said:

What do you guys think of the current used Outremer 45 (new era) (810k$, 750k$ 805k$) and Outremer 49 (835k$) on the market. 

To me it seems they are way overpriced, they all have rotating carbon masts and Kevlar rigging aswell as carbon bulkheads. But those options are usually not reflected in the selling price on the used market. 

I keep thinking that the price of the older “new” Outremers will break but they don’t. The 2010 49’s are still getting top dollar. Eventually the TS42’s and TS5’s will show up on the 2nd hand market, and produxyionnst Outremer will continue, making the older ones less desirable. But for now...tough sell. 

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I also expect a cliff in used boat sales prices in the next years. The evolution in Cats over the last 8 years has been really strong. And all those new generation multihulls for cruisers will come to the market. Marsaudons, Outremers, Neels, Corsair 51. This thread is mainly about the big cruising multihulls and just the advances in Layouts and use of space on the recent generation is huge. Im shopping around for a used cat right now and one of the biggest NOs for me on the old cats are those silly Layouts. E.g. the O55 with its cramped cockpit, just because they wanted slanted windows to avoid a little bit of windage (but the designer really made the decision bc it looked cooler in the drawing). Nowdays even Marsaudon and Outremer have vertical windows which allows for a much more space in the cockpit. 

 

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