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Vendee Globe 2020

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MCoQ looks to have gybed at the last update (2100). Bureau continues to make gains, as do SeaEx and Linked, but it appears to be not enough at the moment.

Vendee20.JPG

vendeeroutecomp.JPG

vendeetrackup.JPG

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Isabelle is nearly back to land, a good show of intelligent seawomanship, just very sad her keel rams let go or we would be talking a lot more about her

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seconded RE Isabelle

I suspect something more than the ram failed, as fast as the backup locking dummy ram blew...

(If I understand the back-up correctly)

Can someone explain the backup she installed that later failed?  Thanks...

 

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13 minutes ago, PHIRKIN said:

seconded RE Isabelle

I suspect something more than the ram failed, as fast as the backup locking dummy ram blew...

(If I understand the back-up correctly)

Can someone explain the backup she installed that later failed?  Thanks...

 

I don't think it's been explained. My guess is the mounts for the rams, which is also probably where you'd put a back up, have failed so there's nothing to attach a support to. We've seen other cases where the main bearing has failed and the thing has dropped out, and cases where the hydraulics have failed, such as for Conrad Coleman last time, but in the latter case there's some structure there to support a jury rig. Somewhere back up the thread I did some torque calculations. The forces are amazingly high.

This is so exciting and the four hour update with the big gap overnight in France is so not what we need right now!

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There's a new leader! 

But starting to think it's hard to look past Boris for this. He's only 35nm behind Burton and sailing fast. Difficult to see where Burton or Dalin could pull out a 6 hour gap.

But then of course there's Yannick with 4 hours in hand... 

Can't begin to imagine how hard this is for the skippers. Having to be completely switched on after 75 days at sea. And knowing even a small mistake now could cost you a chance for victory.

Screenshot_20210124-094332.png

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14 hours ago, yl75 said:

Do you know whether it will be in German, or English ?

In german. Latest invitation via twitter.

Who else thinks Boris should concentrate on the race, when every quarter of an hour will count at the end?

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16 minutes ago, GER 100 said:

Who else thinks Boris should concentrate on the race, when every quarter of an hour will count at the end?

No doubt he will set priorities.

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I’m an irregular reader here, have you already covered the ‘would an up to date latest generation non-foiler have won this race?’

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30 minutes ago, GER 100 said:

In german. Latest invitation via twitter.

Who else thinks Boris should concentrate on the race, when every quarter of an hour will count at the end?

Agree, but I guess it won't be very long, and I am rooting for Louis ! ;)

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Gotta say, have been regularly checking progress and getting excited about the closeness of the racing after so many days.  I do have my favourites but really, it doesn't matter to me who wins as everyone has done so well that whoever is first will have deserved it.

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23 minutes ago, yl75 said:

Agree, but I guess it won't be very long, and I am rooting for Louis ! ;)

I'll find out and report to you guys.what he tells us his secret weapons are going to be ;-)

Btw, the Gibe-Fest started half an hour ago. So most likely Louis and Charlie did the same until 1100 UTC rankings.

 

image.thumb.png.84d6300ef1811f1ba9229250b63165f6.png

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Amazing that Yannick has decided to break with the fleet by heading north. 

By my calculation with the time compensation he was winning if he just followed the leaders across the line. 

Maybe winning for him means crossing the line first.

Screenshot_20210124-102307_Chrome.jpg

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9 minutes ago, winchfodder said:

Amazing that Yannick has decided to break with the fleet by heading north. 

By my calculation with the time compensation he was winning if he just followed the leaders across the line. 

Maybe winning for him means crossing the line first.

Latest mesage from Yannick answers your question

"My routing tells me that we're all going to arrive at the same time so we might as well try an option by going North rather than following the herd. And then, I don't want to go through the Azores. It spices things up a bit..."

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Brilliant. At this stage in the race after 76 days a really ballsy move, like Ben Ainslie crossing Prada on port. I hope he crosses the line first.

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21 minutes ago, gaw said:

Gotta say, have been regularly checking progress and getting excited about the closeness of the racing after so many days.  I do have my favourites but really, it doesn't matter to me who wins as everyone has done so well that whoever is first will have deserved it.

That's exactly how I feel about the final of this race. Would be incredible for a 2016 boat to win though. 

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3 hours ago, PHIRKIN said:

seconded RE Isabelle

I suspect something more than the ram failed, as fast as the backup locking dummy ram blew...

(If I understand the back-up correctly)

Can someone explain the backup she installed that later failed?  Thanks...

 

With the one design keel there is one hydraulic ram that is connected to the head of the keel.  Then there is a false ram which is really just a tube where you can block the keel on center.  Isabelle had broke the main ram then some time later broke the false ram.  When that happends there is not much you can do because the loads are so high.  She has been sailing with the keel swinging around free on the bearing.  It is pretty dangerous because the boat has little stability and if you heel to much the keel will make a hole in the boat.

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12 hours ago, Hitchhiker said:

Bureau has been gaining about 1nm an hour since the 0800 sked.  It would be bloody amazing if the finish deltas were even close to the prediction for the first two boats. Either way this an incredible close to this race.

That private patch of wind for Burton has payed off it seems. At the moment it is a very close call for the line honors indeed between Dalin and Burton. And good for the VG finish / public that unlike last edition, there will be lot's of uncertainty who is ending up where at the podium. 

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I'm actually rather worried for the leaders.  They're probably the most sleep deprived people on the planet right now.  And they're in intense sailing conditions with challenging tactical options, approaching one of the most busy commercial shipping area on earth.  Add in a considerable amount of fishing boats who may or may not be using AIS.

What could go wrong, you ask?

Anyhow, thinking back, I guess I was lucky to finish on my own.  

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

That private patch of wind for Burton has payed off it seems. At the moment it is a very close call for the line honors indeed between Dalin and Burton. And good for the VG finish / public that unlike last edition, there will be lot's of uncertainty who is ending up where at the podium. 

What do you think about Yannick for line honours?

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1 minute ago, winchfodder said:

What do you think about Yannick for line honours?

An update weather analysis I have been working on all morning is due soon, in an hour. But first I have to fetch my daughter at the train station. 

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

An update weather analysis I have been working on all morning is due soon, in an hour. But first I have to fetch my daughter at the train station. 

Ok. Thanks. I need to register the winning time for the fancy watch before midnight! 

I have Yannick elapsed time less 10h 15m as the winning time. At the moment I think around 79 days and 11 hours.

 

 

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Weather update


After further consulting @Hitchhiker via mail I brewed a fresh polar file based on his excellent labor-intensive work. But I decided to cap the TWS range for 38 kts (gale force) and higher winds speeds to a maximum of 18 kts boat speed when broad reaching. Which seems for a single-handed IMOCA 60 in a probably very bad sea state enough to handle. The TWA ranges 0-30 and 160-180 set to no-go, except gybing and tacking. 


I noted that the weather routings by Hitch done the past day show ETA’s in the morning of the 27th, instead of the afternoon or evening. When comparing my latest projections with the polars I used up till now against the ones provided by Hitch, my ETA’s line-up in the morning too. The polars for the foilers are now more powered-up for close-hauled sailing and broad reaching.

As projected yesterday, the most northern boats of the fleet kept heading ENE bringing them SE of the Azores while the followers headed north and west of the Azores. When looking this morning at the actual wind direction and speed measured at the Azores, compared to the ECMWF and GFS model predictions, wind direction is 30 degrees off and wind speed 5 kts overestimated. So not very good even for the actual situation. Let alone a couple of days ahead, except on broad strokes.


The big picture is in pic #1 with the boats projected to arrive the 27th in the morning and NOAA OPC Synoptic surface map as overlay. The warm front has moved further north and passed the fleet. The cold front has passed most of the top-9 boats too. The accompanying LP zone is moving due east, north of the Azores. Towards Cabo Finisterre the coming day. Arriving there Monday the 25th at 00Z. And is creating a gale between the LP and the Azores. This gale impacts the most western boats (Bestaven, Le Cam, Dutreux). The LP moves into the Mediterranean on Monday. When the LP is on Cabo Finisterre, a HP zone is projected to form north of that LP on Monday just below Les Sables d’Olonne, creating light winds. Moving east on the 27th. See pic #2 for projected routing and NOAA OPC surface predictions for the 26th 00:00 UTC.


On Tuesday the 26th, the Azores HP is projected to move NE to Spain, arriving there the Wednesday the 27th – the finish date. A couple of extremely low pressure LP zones is projected west or Ireland, and will provide enough pressure differences for winds up to 6 or 7 BFT in the Bay of Biscay and north of that. See pic #3 for projected routing and NOAA OPC surface predictions for the 27th 12:00 UTC. Burton and Dalin should have finished by then. As can be seen from these NOAA projections, a lot will change in a very short time in the coming days.


Sea state NOOA overlay for yesterday the 23rd is in pic # 4, a more recent one has not been uploaded yet. The most western boats of the top-9 boats (Bestaven, Le Cam, Dutreux) have waves up to 5 meters due to the gale. The foiling leaders have 3 to 4 meters. 


So the current dynamic weather situation is still hard to capture for the models, but I tried anyway. See pic # 5 for the weather routing table. Pic # 6 has the adjusted finish results. Currently, Burton for line honors and also 1st after time adjustments. He had an excellent run in the past day. Hermann in 2nd projected. Dalin 3rd. Bestaven dropping to 4th ranking. Le Cam dropping to 5th, malheureusement. 

My money would still be on Burton currently. But with only a couple of hours ETA-difference, unreliable weather forecasts, and still a 1.000 miles still to sail to LSDO, I won't take bets. Nor the fat lady.

 

pic 1 routing 24-01021 and NOAA v2.jpg

pic 2 projections 26th 00Z v2.jpg

pic 3 projections 27th 12Z v2.jpg

pic 4 sea state 23-01-21.png

pic 5 weather routing table 24-01-21 v2.png

pic 6 VG ranking after time compensations 24-01-21.png

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29 minutes ago, huey 2 said:

Interesting words from Elies :

Quote

Three times winner of La Solitaire du Figaro and fourth on the last Vendée Globe Yann Eliès observed,
“ There are pitfalls to be avoided getting into the North Atlantic depressions, that is never easy to negotiate because they are always worse than the models predict. I don’t think they’re expecting a big, big gale, but they can still get caught out in the harsh weather and seas three weeks after leaving the big south. It’s different too because the nights are long, unlike in the south. They are in complete darkness for long periods. It’s a tough end to the race, because you think we are getting towards the finish line, but the conditions in the North Atlantic and Biscay can still cause damage. Charlie in particular, I feel like he is in his way. Everything that external to around the race  you need to shut out. For me I would tend to postpone everything when it comes from the outside world, the messaging groups, the requests for interviews, the videos. The external world wants to know, but I think skippers want to  staying in their bubble, as focused as possible on what to do and not to take lift their heads until the finish line. One of the big difficulties at this point in this race is not projecting ahead to what will happen after the line. The demands will be more and more pressing. But this race about now is a about victory. And to win first you have to finish. This means that the rhythm is intensifying: eating, sleeping, every minute working your boat counts. You enter a tunnel that is no longer just the Vendée Globe that we have known with the "clac clac clac": you have to deal with the really pressing, important things in terms of performance and getting across the line and shut out the external noise.”

Indeed maybe Boris should reconsider his zoom session (especially regarding sleep, any possible minutes count I would say, still around 3 days)

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I was unsure if this pic had been posted up thread, but I love her spirit and the good cause.

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@Herman

Thanks again for that !

Interesting that the Northern route finishes on starboard tack when the southern finishes on port tack (favorable to Charlie and Thomas), do you use symetrical polars for Charlie and Thomas or did you tweak them ?

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15 minutes ago, yl75 said:

@Herman

Thanks again for that !

Interesting that the Northern route finishes on starboard tack when the southern finishes on port tack (favorable to Charlie and Thomas), do you use symetrical polars for Charlie and Thomas or did you tweak them ?

Unfortunately, OpenCPN only supports symmetrical polars. I'm unsure if Expedition could handle these or not. This feature is only interesting for foiling boats without 2 fully functioning foils. So a handful of boats on the globe currently. Other stuff should have higher priority imho.

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I don't buy it. Burton doesn't have a lot of leverage on Hermann who is about 60 miles astern (3 to 4 hours) with a 6 hour allowance.

My seat of the pants prediction, Hermann wins.

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Got to like Burton's VMG and positioning, but Herman could catch him.

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6 hours ago, yl75 said:

Agree, but I guess it won't be very long, and I am rooting for Louis ! ;)

 

6 hours ago, GER 100 said:

In german. Latest invitation via twitter.

Who else thinks Boris should concentrate on the race, when every quarter of an hour will count at the end?

Call is a bout to start at 1710 CET. 5500 people joined so far! Will Harris is also online.

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Is Dalin heading closer to the Portuguese coast to gybe?  Thay could mean the entire Iberian peninsula on Starboad and his unbroken port foil.  He is devastatingly fast in those conditions.  

The subtleties of these last few days are just awesome.  I love this race.

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What a scary moment: Before the first question - "Oh Shit I hit something". He jumps outside the cockpit, to check if something broke. But apparently all good, no damage. 

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7 minutes ago, tDot said:

Is Dalin heading closer to the Portuguese coast to gybe?  Thay could mean the entire Iberian peninsula on Starboad and his unbroken port foil.  He is devastatingly fast in those conditions.  

The subtleties of these last few days are just awesome.  I love this race.

In his last communication to the Vendée Globe organization, he said that he thinks that from now on, he will be more on port tack that starboard tack; so good for him...

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Some hope for more people to welcome the sailors:

Quote

Make no mistake. This is not a question of going against the health measures decided to protect the population of Covid. Quite the contrary. They are essential. For example, we welcomed the confinement of sailors before departure. But as Yannick Moreau, Mayor of Les Sables-d'Olonne, is about to write in an open letter to Emmanuel Macron, the arrival of skippers finishing a Vendée Globe cannot be considered "an additional administrative file".

more at V&V

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32 minutes ago, tDot said:

Is Dalin heading closer to the Portuguese coast to gybe?  Thay could mean the entire Iberian peninsula on Starboad and his unbroken port foil.  He is devastatingly fast in those conditions.  

The subtleties of these last few days are just awesome.  I love this race.

I mean his port tack and unbroken Starboard foil.  Pre coffee posts should not be allowed.

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26 minutes ago, GER 100 said:

What a scary moment: Before the first question - "Oh Shit I hit something". He jumps outside the cockpit, to check if something broke. But apparently all good, no damage. 

Ok, The meeting ended. 7200 people in total,  just wow. Obviously it was not possible to directly address questions to Boris. He seemed to be in a good shape, having found a new setup after the gybe with good speeds. Yannick's strategy is heading for the stronger winds, Charlie does the opposite as his boat is more fragile. He attempted to cover Thomas, but Thomas has gybed way earlier so everybody is basically sailing his own race. At the end Will Harris gave a weather and routing update - I expect this to be available online later, so I spare me the the details right now. 

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2 minutes ago, GER 100 said:

At the end Will Harris gave a weather and routing update - I expect this to be available online later, so I spare me the the details right now. 

It also did nothing but confirm what we already know: it's going to be close.

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26 minutes ago, stief said:

Some hope for more people to welcome the sailors:

more at V&V

Definitely some good arguments from the mayor of Les sables d'Olonne: if you put one person every 2 meters on both sides of the entrance channel of the harbour, that is 6,000 people who can attend to the arrival, and cheer the skippers; why would that be unsafe, when you have people queuing indoors in supermarkets or shoulder to shoulder in the subway???

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3 minutes ago, Laurent said:

Definitely some good arguments from the mayor of Les sables d'Olonne: if you put one person every 2 meters on both sides of the entrance channel of the harbour, that is 6,000 people who can attend to the arrival, and cheer the skippers; why would that be unsafe, when you have people queuing indoors in supermarkets or shoulder to shoulder in the subway???

Does sound reasonable. Authorities around the world have sure been facing no-win policy decisions with limited reliable info for months. There must be worry too about the sailors' return: their immune systems are likely compromised, and facing eager crowds is a risk for them.

(aside: check your PMs, and enjoy)

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I like Dalin's position now, long favored port gybe with a hotter angle could give him enough of a lead to survive some time on starboard later, depending on how things work out. Questioned it last night as he was headed away from fleet into light airs but it has worked well for him.

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5 hours ago, Haji said:

I'm actually rather worried for the leaders.  They're probably the most sleep deprived people on the planet right now.  And they're in intense sailing conditions with challenging tactical options, approaching one of the most busy commercial shipping area on earth.  Add in a considerable amount of fishing boats who may or may not be using AIS.

What could go wrong, you ask?

Anyhow, thinking back, I guess I was lucky to finish on my own.  

As the finish gets closer, I keep wondering what the skippers 'fear' more.  Pushing too hard and breaking the boat (or themselves)?  Or missing the win by some tiny sliver of time?

I'm assuming of course that none of them are exactly holding anything back, and leaving aside anything completely random, like hitting an OFNI.

Since all these guys seem to like and respect each other, I imagine they'd have fewer regrets coming second in a tight and awesome race than pushing too hard and putting the stick over the side.  What does anyone else think?

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Why do several commentators suggest Boris is "faster" than Louis? Difference between the boats?

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So Burton grabs a sliver of a lead.  Essentially putting this race at neck and neck........again!  Routing the boats at a level percentage puts Dalin and Burton overlapped at the finish, sort of.  However the wind tables for Burton show a bit more pressure early on in his stretch to the finish.  So adding 1% of speed boosts him into a bit more of a finish advantage.  Of course the lighter winds at the very end of the race could prove to be the big decider between Dalin and Burton. 

Going for a ride.  More to follow at the next sked.

 

Vendee20.JPG

vendeetrackup.JPG

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11 minutes ago, Hitchhiker said:

So Burton grabs a sliver of a lead.  Essentially putting this race at neck and neck........again!  Routing the boats at a level percentage puts Dalin and Burton overlapped at the finish, sort of.  However the wind tables for Burton show a bit more pressure early on in his stretch to the finish.  So adding 1% of speed boosts him into a bit more of a finish advantage.  Of course the lighter winds at the very end of the race could prove to be the big decider between Dalin and Burton. 

Going for a ride.  More to follow at the next sked.

 

Vendee20.JPG

vendeetrackup.JPG

So that means Yannick wins with 79d 21h 30m and Boris second in 79d 21h 26m? Just four minutes.

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43 minutes ago, cms said:

Why do several commentators suggest Boris is "faster" than Louis? Difference between the boats?

Yes basically the same hull (two of the 4 Verdier "sisterships" from 2016, Louis on Armel one, Boris on Seb Josse one), but Boris with new gen foils, Louis with original ones.

Make me think, Boris is the only "intact" new gen foils in the leading pack (although he made them much less extreme than Apivia or even Sam or Isabelle ones)

And Yannick has the 3rd one and Giancarlo the 4th.

So Verdier most probably will have six boat in the top six, his 4 from 2016 and his 2 from 2020, so not only 6 over 6 but all the boats he did from 2016 and 2020, not too bad !

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33 minutes ago, yl75 said:

Yes basically the same hull (two of the 4 Verdier "sisterships" from 2016, Louis on Armel one, Boris on Seb Josse one), but Boris with new gen foils, Louis with original ones.

Make me think, Boris is the only "intact" new gen foils in the leading pack (although he made them much less extreme than Apivia or even Sam or Isabelle ones)

And Yannick has the 3rd one and Giancarlo the 4th.

So Verdier most probably will have six boat in the top six, his 4 from 2016 and his 2 from 2020, so not only 6 over 6 but all the boats he did from 2016 and 2020, not too bad !

Imagine if Alex, Jeremie and Armel could have joined the show!

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1 hour ago, Varan said:

Squidlies current projection...

20210124_092038.thumb.jpg.a8f42cab4acd7dc6f69ce46f729ff980.jpg

It's a close one for sure.

I was about to post this too - starting from tomorrow the windy plugin will route all the way to the finish. There are really just three days of racing left. Three days! Time to get a life again besides checking the dashboard every hour even in the night.. Hopefully we all can get back on the water this spring without beeing locked-down  or quarantined! Looking forward to that, really. I hope everybody makes it to Les Sables safe and without further issues after such a a great race. I would love to visit Les Sables for the finish, even from Germany. But I understand it's not going to happen. IMO we should be thankfull the race did start at all given the current circumstances. Now let us enjoy  the super exiting nail-biting finish. Obviously I'm rooting for Boris and I hope he brings it home - but in the end everybody in the leading pack would be a worthy winner.

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Need an intermission between tracker updates?  Here's the result of too many  hours following up on stories and links.

Mostly Pip update: Good news/bad news.

Good: Leslie Stretch - Medallia CEO to Pip: "Let's go shopping for a new boat, shall we?"

Bad: Oh how she suffers! New allergy [aside: too true. When my wife developed a similar allergy, we had to cut short our summer on the tri in the Sea of Cortez. Killed the future plans]

Worst moment for Pip in her VG journey? 2018 bike vs lorry.  Broken pelvis.

Looking ahead: Tanguy Delamotte wouldn't want to face her in 2024, especially in her new boat.

Pip Pip Hooray: Get the hat!  (FaceBook users have 10 hrs left to win)

For others, want a San Fran Sponsor? Here's how it's done

@Haji Sheesh. Hopes for an American sponsored boat again? Need more sailors. Someone should give Chris Muesler at  the NYT a call. 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, stief said:

Need an intermission between tracker updates?  Here's the result of too many  hours following up on stories and links.

Mostly Pip update: Good news/bad news.

Good: Leslie Stretch - Medallia CEO to Pip: "Let's go shopping for a new boat, shall we?"

Bad: Oh how she suffers! New allergy [aside: too true. When my wife developed a similar allergy, we had to cut short our summer on the tri in the Sea of Cortez. Had to haul the boat back to Canada and end of more tropical cruises]

Worst moment for Pip in her VG journey? 2018 bike vs lorry.  Broken pelvis.

Looking ahead: Tanguy Delamotte wouldn't want to face her in 2024, especially in her new boat.

Pip Pip Hooray: Get the hat!  (FaceBook users have 10 hrs left to win)

For others, want a San Fran Sponsor? Here's how it's done

@Haji Sheesh. Hopes for an American sponsored boat again? Need more sailors. Someone should give Chris Muesler at  the NYT a call. 

 

 

Great stuff...it's about time a US corp realized that the VG is an unmatchable platform.  I was unbelievably lucky to get so much support from individuals across the US, which allowed me to pull off finishing. 

However to be competitive, a US program needs to start with a lot of lead time.  Jumping in at the last minute could strike PR gold a la Pip, but it takes a lot of prep to have a shot at the podium.  Yes, we do need some younger US prospects.  I may not be too old physically, however have been out of the game far too long.  To get up to speed on all the new tech, the new boat hull & sail configs, routing & software, and to gain the cumulated sea miles, for 2024 there needs to be some US prospects training on viable boats very soon.  Otherwise...it will be a mid-pack finish like me & Rich.  No one comes out of nowhere in this game!

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1 minute ago, Haji said:

No one comes out of nowhere in this game!

True. Figure there's an opportunity for  American team managers. Maybe you or your friends will be like Marcus Hutchinson :D

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17 minutes ago, jimmyuk81 said:

Outstanding, I really hope he means it. Would absolutely love to see Pip back for the next VG with a newer, faster boat. 

And her excitement when she hears that part! :D

Oh yes. And so many others. Exciting to hear Isabelle is now safe (awaiting more details), sad to see Romain still trapped in the doldrums, the hard Horn roundings (Ari almost done). We sure learn to care for them all. 

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Sure hope Damien Seguin finds a sponsor that says "Let's go shopping for a new boat." Incredible what he has done with an old dagger board 2008 Finot Conq design.

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1 hour ago, stief said:

Need an intermission between tracker updates?  Here's the result of too many  hours following up on stories and links.

Mostly Pip update: Good news/bad news.

Good: Leslie Stretch - Medallia CEO to Pip: "Let's go shopping for a new boat, shall we?"

 

 

I loved Andy's reaction when he said let's go shopping for a new boat.

 

I thought pip's reaction was more muted,  but i guess she's focused on finishing this race and wants to see the detail before she commits. 

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Agree^^

Wednesday Squid projections (Kevin Saliou has updated to v1.3.10)1679859347_ScreenShot2021-01-24at3_56_09PM.thumb.png.4c6f380869e0d11556a5b17dd976af50.png

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On the French side of the website, there is an analysis of the current situation by Yoann Richomme, double winner of the "Solitaire du Figaro" (2016, 2019) and winner of the Route du Rhum in Class40 (2018).

He sees Charlie Dalin on Apivia as the better placed to be the first on the finish line. So he sees him as winner on the water, but not necessarily after time bonus for those who helped for the rescue of Kevin Escoffier. Yoann puts great emphasis on Solitaire du Figaro experience on how to sail under extreme pressure and extreme fatigue. You have to know yourself very well to know how far you can push. Charlie is the most experienced here.

Yoann's analysis is that Charlie came here to win it. Even if he does not win after time bonuses, being first on the line would be of tremendous importance to him. Louis and Yannick, have led the race already; for Yannick, he led for a very long time. So they must be with the knife between the teeth... Thomas is a bit behing unfortunately. Regarding Boris, he notes that he has never been second or first so far; so he may actually have less pressure/rage to do well, than the others. Which might be good to manage the stress.

 

But once again; Charlie is the one with the most experience of this type of finish. He is going to have good winds, but not too strong, pretty much all the way to the finish line, where others will get hit by stronger winds. Charlie, should pretty much be on the same (good) tack until the end, if he can pass Cap Finisterre in NW Spain with the good weather. All things to his advantage...

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4 hours ago, winchfodder said:

So that means Yannick wins with 79d 21h 30m and Boris second in 79d 21h 26m? Just four minutes.

I have revised to winner 79d 3h 45m 

Yannick still wins. 

Hope I win that nice watch.  

Anyone else having a go?

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With the time allowance surely Boris is going to win this.

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Conrad H says he's going to look at Herrmann's chances tomorrow. Should be good.

Tactically, I like Herrmann's position. He can hang between the options, and choose where to go as the time gets closer. His boat is one of the faster ones, in maybe the best shape, and he has a comfortable margin of time to play with.

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Interesting to see that MCoQ, Bureau and SeaEx each gybed about on spot with the routing.  Will be interesting to see ho this plays put at 0400.

 

Yannick maybe looking  to bang the corner hard.  I guess he thinks with the time credit he has it could pay dividends. Certainly looking at the weather ahead in time, he could be sailing in more pressure, but considerably more distance.  Meanwhile, Burton lost some distance to Dalin since the 1700 sked, but the prediction is he extends his line finish.  Looking ahead, if he protects the north side, he consistently stays in more pressure.

Finally to @GER 100. Are you saying I don't have a life now?:unsure:

Vendee20.JPG

vendeetrackup.JPG

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Trying to remember...  When do the go to more frequent tracker updates, and what does the frequency change to?

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24 minutes ago, Your Mom said:

Trying to remember...  When do the go to more frequent tracker updates, and what does the frequency change to?

"At 200 miles from the finish line, the race trackers will be updated every 30 minutes and then every 5 minutes from  60 miles from the crossing."

cred Ger 100 yesterday  #11380

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The Marine Traffic AIS sometimes shows more up to date positions than what the vendee tracker does, for some yachts. Others are hours behind the vendee tracker.

Do the models include tidal currents in the Bay of Biscay?

  

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4 hours ago, stief said:

Agree^^

Wednesday Squid projections (Kevin Saliou has updated to v1.3.10)1679859347_ScreenShot2021-01-24at3_56_09PM.thumb.png.4c6f380869e0d11556a5b17dd976af50.png

Now look

20210124_175906.thumb.jpg.768026266d78c590f1d67798e6137a61.jpg

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Is it just me, or does it seem like Boris is consistently sailing 8-10 degrees higher than Apivia and Bureau on both gybes.  I am sure it is what his polars are telling him he needs to sail.  But with every mile important it seems like it is costing him.

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