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Vendee Globe 2020

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Man, I wish they showed more video of her boat sailing and any video of Alex's boat instead of a funky colored hoody.

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On 9/24/2020 at 9:48 PM, staysail said:

Anyone here know the full story behind the planned usage of this type of foil? i.e. the type used by HB and Arkea. My concerns would be as follows. At a given speed and with a significant length of foil with a constant section the bending moment on the foil at the hull entry point must increase as the foil is extended as more than the square of the length deployed. Compared with the foils of almost all others (which are heavily tapered and pretty thin at the outer ends) these foils must when fully deployed,  generate much more righting moment. If they are to survive rough water slamming when fully deployed they need to be massively strong (and heavy?) at the inboard end, otherwise they must be retracted to reduce loads when conditions dictate. Anyone who has flown in a big modern jet plane will have noticed how the wings bend when the plane flies through clear air turbulence. The foils on the other Imocas will obviously be able to bend to abosorb the impacts of bouncing through wave tops, just like jet plane wings. Can't see the same thing happening with HB and Arkea. Of course the skipper can retract the foils on HB and Arkea as needed but how about when resting or asleep?

anyone who actually knows the answers and explains would  probably be lucky if the team dropped them off the back of the boat far far away from land.

The foils are a huge area of secrecy and all we mere mortals can do it see the shape and  make guesses. I have asked many a question and (rightly) been told 'I cant say''
As to which ones work and which are better than others?  we only have few weeks before we will find out and that won't answer half the questions as to why.  

However, i don't think they will become 'the norm' for us mortals due to their cost and complexity.

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20 hours ago, SSolo said:

anyone who actually knows the answers and explains would  probably be lucky if the team dropped them off the back of the boat far far away from land.

The foils are a huge area of secrecy and all we mere mortals can do it see the shape and  make guesses. I have asked many a question and (rightly) been told 'I cant say''
As to which ones work and which are better than others?  we only have few weeks before we will find out and that won't answer half the questions as to why.  

However, i don't think they will become 'the norm' for us mortals due to their cost and complexity.

Agree there is much secrecy but I'm in France where there are lots of Imocas and quite a bit of racing and multi-boat training going on so far this year and many people are interested and do discuss these things and have opinions about the pros and cons of the various design alternatives that have been seen. I guess in England there is only one boat and that seldom actually enters a race, so far fewer interested people.

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Corum, the quiet Juan K boat without all the big talk and boat failures, is currently in the boat yard because of... an anomaly in the hull. 

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3 hours ago, Miffy said:

Corum, the quiet Juan K boat without all the big talk and boat failures, is currently in the boat yard because of... an anomaly in the hull. 

Whoops.

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4 hours ago, Miffy said:

Corum, the quiet Juan K boat without all the big talk and boat failures, is currently in the boat yard because of... an anomaly in the hull. 

Accordng to the sponsor website, the boat was put back in the water after the last check-up/upgrades/mods for the Vendée Globe, on September 16th. So what happened in the last 2 weeks?

And how long do they have before they have to get the boat in Les Sables d'Olonne? What is the cut-off date for all the boats to be in port?

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14 hours ago, troll99 said:

V. nice video, lotsa info. From the perspective of my armchair, the nav station looks very cramped and busy, even by IMOCA standards and I wonder how he easily he's going to get past the spars to put sails, bags, stuff in general in the back in heavy seas compared to more open plan interiors like the old Macif/BP for example. The back of the cockpit will be closed off with fabric much like Hugo Boss in 2016 come race day. And that moveable nav station is very cool. 

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16 hours ago, Laurent said:

Accordng to the sponsor website, the boat was put back in the water after the last check-up/upgrades/mods for the Vendée Globe, on September 16th. So what happened in the last 2 weeks?

And how long do they have before they have to get the boat in Les Sables d'Olonne? What is the cut-off date for all the boats to be in port?

Most boats are in Les Sables by mid October.

Compared to 2016, french media is very quiet about this year's event. I remember September/October in 2016, TF1 would have a segment pretty much every week hyping up the cheese eating surrender monkeys on the big race. And I hope BBC breakfast or whatever will follow Alex Thomson every week like last time, that was pretty good on their behalf. 

Whatever happens, this one's going to be special, I don't think we've ever seen so many (different!) new boats and more importantly so many people with a genuine chance of winning if they make it to the finish. 

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1 hour ago, Raptorsailor said:

Whatever happens, this one's going to be special, I don't think we've ever seen so many (different!) new boats and more importantly so many people with a genuine chance of winning if they make it to the finish. 

Maybe it is just 2020 but I’m more nervous about the safety of the skippers than I haven since maybe 2012. 

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19 hours ago, Laurent said:

Accordng to the sponsor website, the boat was put back in the water after the last check-up/upgrades/mods for the Vendée Globe, on September 16th. So what happened in the last 2 weeks?

And how long do they have before they have to get the boat in Les Sables d'Olonne? What is the cut-off date for all the boats to be in port?

They did extensive testing offshore.

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23 hours ago, Raptorsailor said:

V. nice video, lotsa info. From the perspective of my armchair, the nav station looks very cramped and busy, even by IMOCA standards and I wonder how he easily he's going to get past the spars to put sails, bags, stuff in general in the back in heavy seas compared to more open plan interiors like the old Macif/BP for example. The back of the cockpit will be closed off with fabric much like Hugo Boss in 2016 come race day. And that moveable nav station is very cool. 

I prefer the layout over Hugo Boss every day due to structural reasons. 

As we discussed that Hugo boss hull broke around the keel area as there is no support around it. Too much focus on weight saving and risk-taking. 

You have choices: to strengthen the hull around plus cluttering cockpit so you get good weight vs strength or do a Hugo boss way which gives plenty of space to move around inside. Again, it Is the physics that dictates everything. 

 

Another thing: Hugo and Charal slam too much then combining "sailing style" with the low weight of the hull. Well good luck, skippers. They may be hardcore. Though I'm starting to  cheer on Le Occitan instead of the two fastest ones as I believe that in long run, the slow turtle may be faster than the rabbit :D

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1 hour ago, troll99 said:

I prefer the layout over Hugo Boss every day due to structural reasons. 

As we discussed that Hugo boss hull broke around the keel area as there is no support around it. Too much focus on weight saving and risk-taking. 

You have choices: to strengthen the hull around plus cluttering cockpit so you get good weight vs strength or do a Hugo boss way which gives plenty of space to move around inside. Again, it Is the physics that dictates everything. 

 

Another thing: Hugo and Charal slam too much then combining "sailing style" with the low weight of the hull. Well good luck, skippers. They may be hardcore. Though I'm starting to  cheer on Le Occitan instead of the two fastest ones as I believe that in long run, the slow turtle may be faster than the rabbit :D

The turtle than went 2 knots faster than anyone else in the Azimuth speed runs?

and in this analogy the turtle would be the boat that doesn’t break, not sure Tripon has that from what we’ve seen so far. 

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2 hours ago, Nauti Buoy said:

The turtle than went 2 knots faster than anyone else in the Azimuth speed runs?

and in this analogy the turtle would be the boat that doesn’t break, not sure Tripon has that from what we’ve seen so far. 

Azimuth is not everything. How about Doldrums?

Charal won everything in smaller races. If you read bets here, many bet on Charal, Hugo, Apiva...

 

It is not about breaking or random events. We talk about structural components. Tripon may be unlucky and break something but it doesn't mean that the hull is not sound. 

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25 minutes ago, troll99 said:

Azimuth is not everything. How about Doldrums?

Charal won everything in smaller races. If you read bets here, many bet on Charal, Hugo, Apiva...

 

It is not about breaking or random events. We talk about structural components. Tripon may be unlucky and break something but it doesn't mean that the hull is not sound. 

Not saying he’s fastest all around but I certainly wouldn’t call him a turtle. 

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2 minutes ago, Nauti Buoy said:

Not saying he’s fastest all around but I certainly wouldn’t call him a turtle. 

I call it because sailing styles.. Occitane doesn't jump up and down like rabbit :P

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On 10/1/2020 at 1:00 PM, troll99 said:

As we discussed that Hugo boss hull broke around the keel area as there is no support around it.

i can assure you that is incorrect.  

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18 minutes ago, SSolo said:

i can assure you that is incorrect.  

Not sure where troll gets his info but half the time he’s like five pages behind and permanently in a state of confusion. 

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On 9/18/2020 at 1:04 PM, SSolo said:

HB's keel stayed intact...the hull attachment took the impact and failed. they said if it wasn't for the multiple bulkheads under the cockpit floor the boat would have been lost.

 

it doesn't contradict my statement. The spacious Hugo cabin is made of bulkheads. Meanwhile, Le Ocitican is not using only bulkheads, also strengthened in a way like Figaro 3.  Thus making the ergonomics a nightmare

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30 minutes ago, troll99 said:

it doesn't contradict my statement. The spacious Hugo cabin is made of bulkheads. Meanwhile, Le Ocitican is not using only bulkheads, also strengthened in a way like Figaro 3.  Thus making the ergonomics a nightmare

You just don’t see the stringer cable tunnels and structural grid that makes up Hugo Boss because they moved the cockpit area to the midsection. All the longitudinal and lateral structure other imocas have Hugo Boss has but hidden from the cockpit view because the cockpit is a protected box. 

Other boats have a keel box; bow bulkhead and that’s it. Hugo Boss’s keel box at the bottom of the cockpit is surrounded by structure that didn’t leak massive amounts of water into the rest of the boat when the front of the keel support got ripped out. If it were any other boat, they might not have been so lucky. 

The new Hugo Boss is light - but informed by Alex’s exp; it is designed to finish and achieved weight savings but getting rid of unnecessary indoor/outdoor transition not by cutting corners. 

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On 9/30/2020 at 8:36 AM, Chucky said:

the whole boat has too much black!

paint is weight .

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38 minutes ago, Miffy said:

You just don’t see the stringer cable tunnels and structural grid that makes up Hugo Boss because they moved the cockpit area to the midsection. All the longitudinal and lateral structure other imocas have Hugo Boss has but hidden from the cockpit view because the cockpit is a protected box. 

Other boats have a keel box; bow bulkhead and that’s it. Hugo Boss’s keel box at the bottom of the cockpit is surrounded by structure that didn’t leak massive amounts of water into the rest of the boat when the front of the keel support got ripped out. If it were any other boat, they might not have been so lucky. 

The new Hugo Boss is light - but informed by Alex’s exp; it is designed to finish and achieved weight savings but getting rid of unnecessary indoor/outdoor transition not by cutting corners. 

ok thanks! I wish there were some photos and drawings to learn from. 

I still think that joining the top and bottom surfaces, front and aft bulkheads aka Loccitane is a good thing. Though I really love the Hugo cockpit, it makes one feel like a king.

Sailors make personal choices ergonomics wise anyway. 

Can @SSolo ask his son for such material if it is not secretive anymore now? :D

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You do know the designer of the Figaro 3 designed imocas and those tunnels were all around imocas of last gen to strength the foil casings right? Manuard didn’t invent anything new there. 

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Is there information whether Sébastien Simon boat is now fixed? That is, have they figured out while they broke the foils?

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Her sister boat hasn’t been exactly trouble free either - curious no one is mentioning Juan K’s involvement in their programs anymore eh

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2 hours ago, Miffy said:

what awful timing 

For those who do not understand French, and completed with the articles linked by yl75.

Monday 28th, they came back from 3 days of sailing in rough conditions (40 knots of wind, boat speed peak at 35 knots...), as a training and video/photo shoot. As usual they thoroughly check the boat and discovered that they had delamination (if I understood well) behind the crash box. It is the inner skin that delaminated and in the process, the core also failed...

They had a furler that got loose and banged the hull in many spots near the bow ( 0:35 in the video above) but it is not clear if this is linked to the incident (personally, I do not see how one event could lead to the other).

They have parts, shipyard available and qualified personnel to work on the boat. They hope to be back in the water in 10 days... They actually have a bunch of yards working on parts, or providing personnel to get it done. CDK, Multiplast, Mer Agitée, Magma (sic), Gepeto (sic) and they are re-enforcing not only this zone but other part of the boat as well...

They candidly admit that they do not know the root cause of the problem.

Nicolas Troussel is trying to find a positive spin by saying that it was great to see how the whole team pulled through to find a solution and get it done... but can you imagine going around the world alone, in a boat that you know broke in fairly tough conditions, but most likely, nothing near what he will encounter?...

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Another article about Corum issues :

https://voilesetvoiliers.ouest-france.fr/course-au-large/vendee-globe/vendee-globe-course-contre-la-montre-pour-reparer-le-bateau-de-nicolas-troussel-39af14a0-061a-11eb-bb5c-a96d991b23dd

It was really at the bow! (a bit strange)

Note : PRB also had an issue hurting an OFNI (with two crew members slightly injured), but no structural issues apparently :

https://www.letelegramme.fr/voile/vendee-globe/prb-en-chantier-pour-renaviguer-en-fin-de-semaine-28-09-2020-12627232.php

Will Sebastien Simon also reinforce his boat ? (same hull mold as Corum, different deck).

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9000 nm only since launching and having delamination issues? The professors’ yacht yard or JuanK? 

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19 hours ago, Miffy said:

You do know the designer of the Figaro 3 designed imocas and those tunnels were all around imocas of last gen to strength the foil casings right? Manuard didn’t invent anything new there. 

Let's say that it is stiff enough around keel attachment. What exactly did it go wrong? What was strengthened recently in the Hugo boat? 

I know that carbon fiber is prone to scratches and it loses strength immediately. Did it had a sort of preventative material between one design keel and carbon fiber hull like a steel box?

I know the Imocas were not designed to withstand OFNI but normal loads in water. 5 pages ago I was suggesting a new type of OD as boats getting faster and OFNI is getting more common.

Breaking foil or keel, it is essentially the same exposure to OFNI. 

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10 hours ago, yl75 said:

Another article about Corum issues :

https://voilesetvoiliers.ouest-france.fr/course-au-large/vendee-globe/vendee-globe-course-contre-la-montre-pour-reparer-le-bateau-de-nicolas-troussel-39af14a0-061a-11eb-bb5c-a96d991b23dd

It was really at the bow! (a bit strange)

Note : PRB also had an issue hurting an OFNI (with two crew members slightly injured), but no structural issues apparently :

https://www.letelegramme.fr/voile/vendee-globe/prb-en-chantier-pour-renaviguer-en-fin-de-semaine-28-09-2020-12627232.php

Will Sebastien Simon also reinforce his boat ? (same hull mold as Corum, different deck).

If he's got problems this late, he's most likely going to have problems in the race itself. Look at HB in 2008. 

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7 hours ago, troll99 said:

Let's say that it is stiff enough around keel attachment. What exactly did it go wrong? What was strengthened recently in the Hugo boat? 

I know that carbon fiber is prone to scratches and it loses strength immediately. Did it had a sort of preventative material between one design keel and carbon fiber hull like a steel box?

I know the Imocas were not designed to withstand OFNI but normal loads in water. 5 pages ago I was suggesting a new type of OD as boats getting faster and OFNI is getting more common.

Breaking foil or keel, it is essentially the same exposure to OFNI. 

Why don’t you just read the lengthy threads about imoca and Hugo boss’s build. It is all there. 

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On 9/30/2020 at 1:24 AM, Miffy said:

Corum, the quiet Juan K boat without all the big talk and boat failures, is currently in the boat yard because of... an anomaly in the hull. 

The first rule of a Juan K boat is to get all the engineering calculations and laminate schedules, give them to someone who knows what they're doing and then build your boat...

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HB got her bottom  strengthened, from what I understand, but this hasn't much to do with the keel and TJV accident, more with the slamming

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32 minutes ago, yl75 said:

HB got her bottom  strengthened, from what I understand, but this hasn't much to do with the keel and TJV accident, more with the slamming

I think that was Sam Davies & Herrmannn’s boats? Hugo Boss had the keel support structure reinforced & some strengthening for the deck/mast load apparently because sister boat from common design team had some issues. 

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6 hours ago, NZL3481 said:

The first rule of a Juan K boat is to get all the engineering calculations and laminate schedules, give them to someone who knows what they're doing and then build your boat...

Stupid comment. That is the first rule of properly executing any engineer’s design. 

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41 minutes ago, Hitchhiker said:

Stupid comment. That is the first rule of properly executing any engineer’s design. 

I think you’re missing the shade re ditching JuanK’s engineering calcs and laminate schedules. 

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9 hours ago, Miffy said:

I think that was Sam Davies & Herrmannn’s boats? Hugo Boss had the keel support structure reinforced & some strengthening for the deck/mast load apparently because sister boat from common design team had some issues. 

But they also reinforced the bottom, aft the mast below the ballasts :

Quote

Potentiel problème de strucuture

Hugo Boss passera lui aussi une partie de l’été au sec. Prévu de longue date, le chantier a récemment pris une tout autre importance. « Nous avons détecté un potentiel problème de structure dans la coque à l’arrière du mât. Sur ces nouveaux bateaux qui volent plus haut, la zone de la coque qui tape fort la mer n’est plus seulement à l’avant du mât, mais aussi derrière. Les architectes nous ont recommandé de renforcer cette partie située sous les ballasts. On ne sait pas si c’est un vrai problème ou non, mais nous ne pouvons prendre aucun risque. On a donc renforcé la coque de l’intérieur », explique Thomson. Après quatre semaines de travail, son Imoca retrouvera l’eau, équipé d’une nouvelle paire de foils, toujours aussi grands (7 mètres de long) et « proches de la première version qui était déjà satisfaisante. Nous les avons commandés en octobre dernier au chantier Persico de Bergame (Italie) où le coronavirus a fait beaucoup de dégâts. Nous avons pris beaucoup de retard.»

 

https://sport24.lefigaro.fr/voile/vendee-globe/actualites/alex-thomson-le-loup-solitaire-du-vendee-globe-court-aussi-apres-le-temps-1008563

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having talked it through  pete we will not be going, 14day quarantine/self isolation on return, work and knowing we will not be able to interact with the team(s) in anyway as the skippers will most likely be all be isolated to the 'departure' crew. 
will have to do with watching on-line 

 

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8 hours ago, SSolo said:

having talked it through  pete we will not be going, 14day quarantine/self isolation on return, work and knowing we will not be able to interact with the team(s) in anyway as the skippers will most likely be all be isolated to the 'departure' crew. 
will have to do with watching on-line 

 

Very disappointing, Solo. But at least, we'll have a race, eh? Not long now...

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On 10/4/2020 at 12:21 AM, minca3 said:

Is there information whether Sébastien Simon boat is now fixed? That is, have they figured out while they broke the foils?

Does someone want to translate this for me/us:

 

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1 hour ago, minca3 said:

Does someone want to translate this for me/us:

 

He is saying that they still managed to train after dropping  out of the Vendée arctique, that their new foils are reinforced (but same concept as the previous ones), that they still need to get the port one in Italy next week, and do the final paint job on both, and then they will head straight to Les Sables.

Note: I'm a bit lost with all arkea paprec foils :), not exactly sure if both are brand new, or if they still have the non broken one from vendee arctique but reinforced. 

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23 minutes ago, yl75 said:

He is saying that they still managed to train after dropping  out of the Vendée arctique, that their new foils are reinforced (but same concept as the previous ones), that they still need to get the port one in Italy next week, and do the final paint job on both, and then they will head straight to Les Sables.

Note: I'm a bit lost with all arkea paprec foils :), not exactly sure if both are brand new, or if they still have the non broken one from vendee arctique but reinforced. 

Thanx for translating!

I rather think 2 new foils because reinforcing existing ones could only be done on the outside, that would make them thicker. Then they would need to change the casings in the hull too.

In any case - they will barely make it to the starting line and they will be awfully underprepared.

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I think they broke 2 sets - repaired one set while waiting for perisco marine to build them new ones (perisco hadn’t been involved in the prior two set). 
 

Doubt they’re gonna reveal the what happened- they haven’t even touched the surface of what they had to do to rebuild their entire foil control system or the various issues they’ve had with that mess of a boat. 

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3 hours ago, yl75 said:

He is saying that they still managed to train after dropping  out of the Vendée arctique, that their new foils are reinforced (but same concept as the previous ones), that they still need to get the port one in Italy next week, and do the final paint job on both, and then they will head straight to Les Sables.

Note: I'm a bit lost with all arkea paprec foils :), not exactly sure if both are brand new, or if they still have the non broken one from vendee arctique but reinforced. 

Agreed with you, not totally clear... The way I understand it, they strengthen their existing foils so they could continue to sail and train with them while new ones were built in Persico. It seems to be in relation with what they show at 31:00 in the video above. But as stated by minca3, I do not know how you can do that without changing the profile...

The foils (and the boat) is equipped with loadcells, alarms, optic fiber and during the trainings, they had alarms bipping on a regular basis, meaning that they were at the mechanical limit... It is not clear if he is speaking specifically and solely about the foils, or the whole boat structure. In any case, he says that this is why he will be re-assured to leave with a new pair of stronger foils. In the video they show that they got the starboard one. And they actually dispatched a team to fetch the second one in Italy (is this "just in time" manufacturing or what???).

A little bit of fairing on the foils, a coat of paint, installation and off they go to Les Sables d'Olonne.

This is cutting it really-really-really short...

 

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I'm wondering if someone more knowledgable about the entry list could break it down into tiers, such as...

Tier 1: Legit podium contenders.  Experienced, proven, with new enough boats.

Tier 2: Racing for high positions.  Proven sailors with decent boats, but inexperienced or sailing old technology.  Would need a lot of breakage ahead to podium.

Tier 3: Racing for mid-fleet.  In it to race, but for one reason or another not likely to crack the top dozen spots.

Tier 4: Racing to finish.  In it for a cause or for the bucket list, but more concerned about finishing than position.

 

Perhaps there aren't four tiers.  Perhaps it's just contenders, other racers, and everyone else.  I'm not sure.  To be clear, I don't meant to suggest anything negative about Tier 4.  I'd love to have a chance to do this in Tier 4 myself, and I enjoy tracking them all to the finish.  I'd just like to have a better understanding pre-start of who's got what goals, etc.

I suppose it would also be handy to know who in Tiers 2 and 3 are trying to build toward a Tier 1 program in the future, if that's known.

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3 hours ago, Your Mom said:

I'm wondering if someone more knowledgable about the entry list could break it down into tiers, such as...

Tier 1: Legit podium contenders.  Experienced, proven, with new enough boats.

Tier 2: Racing for high positions.  Proven sailors with decent boats, but inexperienced or sailing old technology.  Would need a lot of breakage ahead to podium.

Tier 3: Racing for mid-fleet.  In it to race, but for one reason or another not likely to crack the top dozen spots.

Tier 4: Racing to finish.  In it for a cause or for the bucket list, but more concerned about finishing than position.

 

Perhaps there aren't four tiers.  Perhaps it's just contenders, other racers, and everyone else.  I'm not sure.  To be clear, I don't meant to suggest anything negative about Tier 4.  I'd love to have a chance to do this in Tier 4 myself, and I enjoy tracking them all to the finish.  I'd just like to have a better understanding pre-start of who's got what goals, etc.

I suppose it would also be handy to know who in Tiers 2 and 3 are trying to build toward a Tier 1 program in the future, if that's known.

Perhaps when speculating like this its worth factoring in a "probability that entrant will finish"?

In 2008 there were a similar number of entrants and quite a few recent boats but of the 30 which started only 11 finished (and the winning boat almost had to abandon after the first bit of rough weather!). 19 had to pull out. The fastest of today's foilers might be considered more damage-prone than the fastest of the fleet in 2008 (?) so it could be realistic to expect up to around 20 not to make it. First pick the boats which you think will not make it round. Make a short list of who is likely to finish. The 3 on the podium will be among that group.

On that basis at least half of the fleet and more have a "legit" chance of being on the podium.

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Trying to build the summary (note : I'm a bit drunk)

Brand new boats (like built after last VG arrival) :

Charal : VPLP

HB : VPLP

Apivia : Verdier

Linkedout : Verdier

Arkea Paprec : JK

DMG MORI : VPLP (Charal v1 systership)

Corum : JK

L'Occitane : Manuard

Then there are the previous and last previous generation boats with brand new foils (Sam, Kevin, Hermann, Isabelle, etc)

Then the previous and last previous with not really brand new foils (Boissiere, others)

Then "old" boats (or same as the above) still with daggerboards (Clarisse, Damien), but those daggerboards still "work" ..

Then the "adventurers" on a low budget, typically Dutreux this time around I would say, joining Destremau, (or Conrad last time, and he could be above next time)

 

 

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Winner will be VPLP or Verdier - JuanK boats will be considered successful if they simply finish. 

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16 minutes ago, Miffy said:

Winner will be VPLP or Verdier - JuanK boats will be considered successful if they simply finish. 

Not too many risk taken there :)

But who knows ! maybe Sebastien or Nicolas could create a surprise with these JuanK "shitboxes" (you really have something against him it seems ;) ), but that is if they don't break, foils, or anything else.

But Mich dej has built Corum, so who knows, who built Arkea Paprec again ?

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32 minutes ago, Miffy said:

Winner will be VPLP or Verdier - JuanK boats will be considered successful if they simply finish. 

If it will finish the Manuard design (L'OCCITANE EN PROVENCE) might throw up a suprise

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19 minutes ago, yl75 said:

Not too many risk taken there :)

But who knows ! maybe Sebastien or Nicolas could create a surprise with these JuanK "shitboxes" (you really have something against him it seems ;) ), but that is if they don't break, foils, or anything else.

But Mich dej has built Corum, so who knows, who built Arkea Paprec again ?

One JuanK was built with the professor, the other with Vincent Riou. Neither project currently racking up the miles, both skippers new to imoca. 

Just calling it how it is - the other new imoca boats have put in far more miles. 

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57 minutes ago, Miffy said:

One JuanK was built with the professor, the other with Vincent Riou. Neither project currently racking up the miles, both skippers new to imoca. 

Just calling it how it is - the other new imoca boats have put in far more miles. 

Indeed, and Desjoyeaux saying the winner will be a black boat could mean he himself doesn't believe in his project, but then again who knows (don't understand at all these ultra open cokpit though), we will see!

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6 hours ago, staysail said:

Perhaps when speculating like this its worth factoring in a "probability that entrant will finish"?

In 2008 there were a similar number of entrants and quite a few recent boats but of the 30 which started only 11 finished (and the winning boat almost had to abandon after the first bit of rough weather!). 19 had to pull out. The fastest of today's foilers might be considered more damage-prone than the fastest of the fleet in 2008 (?) so it could be realistic to expect up to around 20 not to make it. First pick the boats which you think will not make it round. Make a short list of who is likely to finish. The 3 on the podium will be among that group.

On that basis at least half of the fleet and more have a "legit" chance of being on the podium.

 

I don't think it is easy to establish as a first step a probability to finish ... I think there is (some may say unfortunately) too much of a luck factor - you may call it Russian roulette...

Vincent Riou in PRB hitting a drifting boy in the South Atlantic several VG ago comes to mind. He was experienced to say the least, had a fast boat (the lightest of the fleet at the time), a good team. He was considered a podium finisher by most people. But bad luck struck...

That being said, I agree that there are boats that are less likely to finish, just because of lack of preparation, lack of budget and higher risk of material failure and that can be taken into account.

So I will jump into it... For me the top contenders are:

Jeremie Beyou - Charal - VPLP

Alex Thomson - Hugo Boss - VPLP

Charlie Dalin - Apivia - Verdier

Armel Tripon - L'Occitane - Manuard

Kevin Escoffier -PRB - Verdier/VPLP (yes, I know, it is an 8 years old boat, I am going a bit on a limb here... but the boat is fast and the guy is good and he can fix anything on board; ANYTHING !)

 

Then the "have a shot at the top 5"

Thomas Ruyant - LinkedOut - Verdier

Sam Davies - Initiative Coeur - VPLP/Verdier

Boris Herrmann - Sea Explorer-Yacht Club de Monaco - Verdier/VPLP

Kojiro Shiraishi - DMG MORI : VPLP

Nicolas Troussel - Corum - JK

 

This is my opinion; I am Laurent, and I approve this message...

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A good list Laurent.

I would move Sam Davies up into the "top contenders" list  and Nicolas Troussel out of the "shot" list. I don't think Corum is going to stay in one piece even putting aside bad luck.

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1 hour ago, DtM said:

A good list Laurent.

I would move Sam Davies up into the "top contenders" list  and Nicolas Troussel out of the "shot" list. I don't think Corum is going to stay in one piece even putting aside bad luck.

Thanks!

I wanted to limit myself to 5 names on the top contender list, otherwise, if you put a third of the fleet, it doesn't mean much anymore, does it?

I hesitated for the last name between Kevin Escoffier, Thomas Ruyant and Sam Davies. I took Kevin because he knows the south, he is good at everything, and IMHO he has the best Frankensteined boat. He does not have much single handed experience though... Sam could definitely be in that list.

For Corum, there is a reason why he is last in my "shot to top 5" list... For sure, Juan K has been consistent with his reputation on the few new IMOCA he designed...

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2 hours ago, DtM said:

A good list Laurent.

I would move Sam Davies up into the "top contenders" list  and Nicolas Troussel out of the "shot" list. I don't think Corum is going to stay in one piece even putting aside bad luck.

I'd also drop, Kojiro Shiraishi - DMG MORI : VPLP - the boat I think is good enough, but I don't think Kojiro will consistently push it hard enough, to earn a shot.

 

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4 hours ago, Sailbydate said:

I'd also drop, Kojiro Shiraishi - DMG MORI : VPLP - the boat I think is good enough, but I don't think Kojiro will consistently push it hard enough, to earn a shot.

 

Agree, plus his training schedule seems to have been quite messed up with the Covid, like the others for sure, but maybe more for him ?

(and he finished only 10 in the Vendée Arctique)

 

By the way, out of the 5 (over 6) boats that were brand new for the previous edition and that are competing in this one, only one has brand new foils (Boris) :

Banque pop VIII (Armel): now Bureau Vallée with Louis Burton : original foils

Safran II ( Morgan Lagraviere) : now Maitre Coq IV with Yannick Bestaven : original foils

St Michel Virbac (JP Dick) : now Prysmian Group with Giancarlo Pedote : original foils

No way back (Pieter Heerema) : now Newrest - Art & Fenêtres with Fabrice Amedeo : original foils

Gitana 16 (Seb Josse) : now Seaexplorer - Yacht Club de Monaco with Boris Hermann : new foils

Is that correct ?

 

 

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On 10/10/2020 at 10:36 AM, yl75 said:

The 33 boats in 2 mn :

 

 

I cannot wait for this one to start. Possibly my life is quite sad, but this vid made me realize how much I have missed obsessing over some people racing boats somewhere on the ocean...

Really curious what time the new generation of foilers can get round the world in. As much as I admire the living hell out of VLDP, it is great to see that some more designers are at the coalface. Really interested how Armel Tripon on L'Occitane will fare. Boat looks a real weapon.

Feels like a last chance for it to all fall into place for both Thomson and Beyou. The talent and experience in the pack chasing them is frightening, great for the sport though.   

 

 

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14 hours ago, Miffy said:

the other new imoca boats have put in far more miles. 

not many miles with Hugo or im missing something. 

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What will the elapsed time be for this go-around? 

Armel Le Cléac'h, in Banque Populaire, posted the time to beat, of 74 days, 3 hours, 35 minutes and 46 seconds.

I think I read somewhere, that Alex Thomson will pack food for only 71 days. I doubt whether he'll be expecting to go hungry.

Could the winner go under 70 days?
 

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52 minutes ago, Sailbydate said:

What will the elapsed time be for this go-around? 

Armel Le Cléac'h, in Banque Populaire, posted the time to beat, of 74 days, 3 hours, 35 minutes and 46 seconds.

I think I read somewhere, that Alex Thomson will pack food for only 71 days. I doubt whether he'll be expecting to go hungry.

Could the winner go under 70 days?
 

I think so. With the weather data now and the way these boats go even upwind... I don’t think there’s any doubt they’ll get to the southern ocean possibly 3 days before the prior gen - cut off another 3 day on the leg up. 

they also need so little wind to maintain 450-500 nm days - they’ll be sea state routing to avoid the bad stuff. I think it is entirely possible they’re gonna finish in 65-68 days. 

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31 minutes ago, Varan said:

Cut from above...

Armel Tripon - L'Occitane - Manuard

67 days.

 

Ballsy call, Varan. ;-)

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Probably not this time, but I like the match of designer, skip and builder. Their time is coming. But then again, maybe this time.

PRB... um humm...look out y'all.  They will be there too.

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SAM MANUARD – OUR GREAT ADVENTURE

 Ed Gorman talks to Sam Manuard about the new L’Occitane en Provence.

Sam Manuard is looking forward to the Vendée Globe and to what he calls the next chapter in the “great adventure” that he and Armel Tripon’s team have been enjoying with their new boat L’Occitane en Provence.

The mean-looking IMOCA in black and gold trim with the scow bow, and with its foils protruding from just below the sheer line, has impressed with its raw speed during the Défi Azimut. Although it has had to have more work done to reinforce its structure, Manuard is now happy that his first venture into the IMOCA fleet is ready to go.

“We have addressed the issues that we discovered and I have no bad feelings about that, so I am pretty confident,” said the 49-year-old designer who is based in the Breton town of Vannes. “The boat is subject to super-high slamming loadings and we had to reassess the structure a little bit to take account of those loads.”

https://www.imoca.org/en/news/news/d-32-vendee-globe-sam-manuard-our-great-adventure

Pic IMOCA.ORG

photo-cp1.jpeg

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5 hours ago, Sailbydate said:

What will the elapsed time be for this go-around? 

Armel Le Cléac'h, in Banque Populaire, posted the time to beat, of 74 days, 3 hours, 35 minutes and 46 seconds.

I think I read somewhere, that Alex Thomson will pack food for only 71 days. I doubt whether he'll be expecting to go hungry.

Could the winner go under 70 days?

Even more aggressive, Alex is going with 67 days of food according to this interview.

He thinks he could have done 70 days last time around already without foil breakage (link here) and name again an objective of 67 days.

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Having take the day of work, I have tried to look at the possible finish times a bit. Obviously, this is a fools errand. Luck / bad luck with weather systems could easily change a pridiction by some days. That is aready after the (obvious) caveat that the winner is spared a serious breakage or collision with and OFNI. Finally, any statistician worth their degree would recoil in horror at using this few data points :).

These are the times (in hours) the winner needed in the 8 editions so far:

image.png.221ccfd0bff4cdd66cfbe056eecc20ab.png

and these are the edition to edition changes in the winner's lapsed times.

image.png.2581895685b4149a8d9cadfff933ac26.png

The improvenet that towers over the others (305 hours faster-  almost 13 days!) is Michel Desjoyeaux (with Ellen MacArthur very close behind). On average, the improvement from one edition to the next has been about 120 hours, but that number is quite heavily skewed by the 2000-2001 performance. It drops to about 90 hours average improvement without that.

Interestingly, the improvements the foils made in the last edition is less than average (or about average without the 2000-2001 edition). Partly, that is because Gabart (with Le Cleac'h hot on his heels) was really fast the edition before.

The big question is how much the new foils (and other changes) will bring. Being a slighlty connservative type in my estimates, I am guesing it will be notable, but not completely revolotionary. To me a 100 hour improvement over the reccord would be a good performance.  That would bring it just below 70 days (by 1 or 2 hours). To get below 67 days, the improvement would have to be in the order of 10%, which seems a lot to my simple brain. That would suggesttaking about 170 hours of the reccord, which only happened in the 2000-2001 edition. (And I think that was more about not slowing at night and pushing the boat harder than about any tech improvements.) 

So, my (not so bold) prediction. The winner will take between 68 and 71 days. It could very well become a squeeze to finish just below 70 hours.

Now all we need is to wait for the race to prove me wrong (or someone with time on their hands to find an error in my calculations).

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Sailbydate said:

 “The boat is subject to super-high slamming loadings and we had to reassess the structure a little bit to take account of those loads.”

Luckily only the boat. Just imagine if the skipper would be exposed to the same slamming ...

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