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Brexit WTF, WTF

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16 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

Something you guys on this forum thread really underestimate, the core UK voter is as stubborn as a mule, once they make up their minds, its almost improbable for them to reverse that decision, ...

So ducks are smarter than the "core UK voter"??

After watching that "Dirty War on the NHS" vid in post #2674 above, it appears duck shit is even smarter.

Then around 10% of Tory voter (43% of voters) are complete fucking nut jobs if two-thirds of voters are against zero hour contracts..

 

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13 hours ago, MiddayGun said:

....Did you know that its not until after the 30-39 that you see any conservative majority in the demographic?

Did you also know Dementia chemistry starts in mid 40's for most people, some it never advances, some it does. 

I'm starting to see a link :-)

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

...

PS. LB you should explain what a "Mangrove Jack" is, it will confuse some into thinking I eat bait. 

Banner-1800x700_JACK_1600x.jpg?v=1542685

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2 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

great idea but shit implementation....

yes, common currency with divergent economies and no unified monetary policy...actually is not a good idea, its a partial idea

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42 minutes ago, KC375 said:

yes, common currency with divergent economies and no unified monetary policy...actually is not a good idea, its a partial idea

Very good point KC. But also both "fiscal" and "monetary" where only the strong economies like Germany and Netherlands with low public debt to GDP have the ability to pull substantive fiscal levers, especially to counter recessionary periods.

Another good thing about the Single Market is say the recessionary counter of infrastructure works is they are cross border employers. That removal of labour mobility something the UK will surely live to regret not having anymore.

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

LB you will have to summarise. I can't look. At top of pages here is a reminder banner saying that; 

"You've chosen to ignore content by Bruce Hudson"

PS. LB you should explain what a "Mangrove Jack" is, it will confuse some into thinking I eat bait. 

Good point. It is a fish that looks like a barramundi, tastes just as good and fights like a bag of cats. 

I would try to summarise his profile but it is a bit like writing cliff notes for ‘war and peace’. 

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22 minutes ago, LB 15 said:

Good point. It is a fish that looks like a barramundi, tastes just as good and fights like a bag of cats. 

I would try to summarise his profile but it is a bit like writing cliff notes for ‘war and peace’. 

I thought that 'tendentious fuckwit' described Bruce adequately and succinctly.

FKT

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3 hours ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

I thought that 'tendentious fuckwit' described Bruce adequately and succinctly.

FKT

Fah "tendentious" is specific..that turnip is all over the place like an old women's shit. Merry Xmas mate and hope you survive the Boxing Day invasion. Cheers.

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10 hours ago, LionessRacing said:

"Beat up" as in Verdun, not beaten as in Vichy. 

That was just a battle.... this was also probably the most atrocious European war. You could argue that we didn't win it but we didn't lose it either. At least we didn't lose it in the military sense, at the end in an economical and social sense all belligerents were losers.

According to my grand mother, my great grand father stayed several months in his bed when he returned from the front in 1918 completely shocked. I imagine that at the time they didn't have a word for PTSD. He eventually got out of his bed restarted running the farm and never talked about the war.

So I got first hand account of the horrors of WW2, I give my children second hand account but obviously it doesn't have the same weight. 10 years ago I was having pints in the UK with British and German workmates, may be 2 generations ago our ancestors had been shooting each other. Our parents would have needed a visa to work in the UK. Just for this the EU is worth it, what Brexiters completely miss is that even if it wasn't a myth bendy bananas don't really matter in the grand scheme of things.

Nowadays nationalists and warmongers are back, they got a victory with Brexit, I will just do my best so that they only win a battle not the war. Here is below one speech for you that never got aired on US TV as you were too busy calling us cheese eating surrender monkeys... For the Iraqi wars, the warmongers won the argument again, but it would have been in the US interest to listen as history proved him right. Pyrrhic victories are of little use! It costed the USA vast resources and at the end they didn't get in return as much oil as they were expecting as the country is still very unstable 15 years on....

 

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Fah "tendentious" is specific..that turnip is all over the place like an old women's shit. Merry Xmas mate and hope you survive the Boxing Day invasion. Cheers.

Same to you, Jack. We're finally getting some nice warm days down here. No bushfires near me (yet) so it's all good.

Have a drink for me.

FKT

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Sorry about the "humiliation" procedures from last night. Sodding spell checker on my tablet .... Homologation was the intended word.

Historically around Europe there were some countries with mandatory standards and others with either voluntary or no standards in the leisure boating industry. For example, in the UK, you could build, sell and use any bucket of shit, whereas in France the Douanes (Customs) and Affaires Maritimes had developed a system covering certain standards which could be checked and validated with new or imported second hand products. There was a clear "non tariff barrier" element to these standards, with French producers getting away with blue murder and importers facing well nigh impossible obstacles.

These standards were completely separate from what classification societies offered. Many countries had such bodies, Lloyds Register, Bureau Veritas, Det Norske Veritas, Germanischer Lloyd, ABS etc, although there was also plenty of cross border work, often in order to appear to be higher quality than reality... Lloyds Register +100A1 was in some ways the gold standard, and the Germanischer Lloyd +100A4 sounded pretty close, even though the former guaranteed the highest quality of design, materials, techniques and inspection, whereas the latter merely provided "plan approval" of a design. Lloyds register even let themselves, their reputation, and their clients down, by allowing their logo to be proudly added to advertising and literature by companies like Gibert Marine (Gib'sea) where all that had happened was a vague approval of the suitability of their factories for producing to good standards. Even the widely used, and initially respected "Lloyds Hull Construction Certificate" was allowed to be watered down with fewer and less stringent inspections.

Then we had the move towards other sorts of standards, ISO, BSI and the like, which were sought to show that your business was tightly run and proper accountability could be shown. This route may have been further used had not the RCD been brought forward.

The RCD and the CE marking system were a genuinely collaborative project, showing just how the EU can work well. The industry was already involved in discussions with governments, consumer groups, assorted boating federations and so on. Regular meetings were already being held and attended at trade shows and as add ons to boat shows. Bodies like ICOMIA were helping a cooperative process, and with the development of the EU project in many fields, it was realised that the civil servants in Brussels were there to work for us in coming up with widely acceptable standards. After some years of effort, agreement was reached. The UK boater is better protected. The UK producer can now sell his product in France without hassle. Win, win.

When the British actually get stuck in, the result is usually excellent. They read the small print and make sure that they can implement it, rather than the southern European signing up to the idea with no concept nor intention of properly implementing.... In truth, I think this variety of attitudes and views is what makes for the best results.

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@Panoramix thanks, beautifully put. My mother's 12th birthday was the day Operation Market Garden was launched. She lived about 50 miles south of Arnhem and described the sky as being black with all the airplanes coming over. Apart of that she still can still feel the sheer terror of seeing, hearing and feeling a tank rumbling through their street in a small provincial town.

I hope you guys out there can imagine the impact such events had on the mind of a 12 year old kid...

War is no fun, and anything that is able to avoid it is worth protecting and preserving.

We Europeans have known war in a way that the USA has never had to endure in the last 150 odd years

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20 minutes ago, alphafb552 said:

@Panoramix thanks, beautifully put. My mother's 12th birthday was the day Operation Market Garden was launched. She lived about 50 miles south of Arnhem and described the sky as being black with all the airplanes coming over. Apart of that she still can still feel the sheer terror of seeing, hearing and feeling a tank rumbling through their street in a small provincial town.

I hope you guys out there can imagine the impact such events had on the mind of a 12 year old kid...

War is no fun, and anything that is able to avoid it is worth protecting and preserving.

We Europeans have known war in a way that the USA has never had to endure in the last 150 odd years

The saddest thing is that there are 1000s of stories like this. They don't make it to war movies, they just show heroic guys "saving the world".

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Yeah I remember the Build under GL yachting ads, while it was only plan approved, for the hull, not the keel structure.
I studied NA then and for yachts only ABS counted, while that was not even updated for decades. LR for big ships.
So RCD was a mix of industry standards normalized in one, available in all languages and easy to track if rules changed.

Looked a while ago at the RCD2 rules and in over a decade since the last one only a few reasonable things changed, looks like the critic the EU makes rules for the rules is untrue in this field. Some stuff about electric engines, en new emission standards engines. And helming position must have clear line of site, duh, this was already in there for powerboats, and now for sailboats too. Small persons will need to bring a step.

And if you are experimenting you have the freedom;
Racing boats are free of rules.
And if you want to install an ancient steam engine, they have you covered. Must be fun in the meetings when someone brought that up.

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1 hour ago, cms said:

Sorry about the "humiliation" procedures from last night. Sodding spell checker on my tablet .... Homologation was the intended word.

 

You got me wondering whether this was a technical term or not....

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29 minutes ago, alphafb552 said:

@Panoramix thanks, beautifully put. My mother's 12th birthday was the day Operation Market Garden was launched. She lived about 50 miles south of Arnhem and described the sky as being black with all the airplanes coming over. Apart of that she still can still feel the sheer terror of seeing, hearing and feeling a tank rumbling through their street in a small provincial town.

I hope you guys out there can imagine the impact such events had on the mind of a 12 year old kid...

War is no fun, and anything that is able to avoid it is worth protecting and preserving.

We Europeans have known war in a way that the USA has never had to endure in the last 150 odd years

Maybe if the US had more recent experience it might be more mindful of “collateral” damage and civilian casualties of its drone strikes.

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NI; have a nice new year BJ in the Caribbean with some rich German friends, prepare for an Nixet referendum, but this time an exit from the UK.

Alliance Party open to citizens’ assembly on border poll.

The Alliance Party is open to a citizens’ assembly on the future of a united Ireland but only if issues are addressed “entirely without prejudice”, the party’s new MP has said.
Stephen Farry told The Times: “We would be interested, but we would need to see the detail of it. It is something that is conceivable.”
He added: “But our focus would be simply ensuring that work is being done and properly getting through the issues entirely without prejudice. In that context engagement is potentially possible.”
Northern Ireland has more nationalist than unionist MPs for the first time ever.

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5 hours ago, Panoramix said:

That was just a battle.... this was also probably the most atrocious European war. You could argue that we didn't win it but we didn't lose it either. At least we didn't lose it in the military sense, at the end in an economical and social sense all belligerents were losers.

According to my grand mother, my great grand father stayed several months in his bed when he returned from the front in 1918 completely shocked. I imagine that at the time they didn't have a word for PTSD. He eventually got out of his bed restarted running the farm and never talked about the war.

So I got first hand account of the horrors of WW2, I give my children second hand account but obviously it doesn't have the same weight. 10 years ago I was having pints in the UK with British and German workmates, may be 2 generations ago our ancestors had been shooting each other. Our parents would have needed a visa to work in the UK. Just for this the EU is worth it, what Brexiters completely miss is that even if it wasn't a myth bendy bananas don't really matter in the grand scheme of things.

Nowadays nationalists and warmongers are back, they got a victory with Brexit, I will just do my best so that they only win a battle not the war. Here is below one speech for you that never got aired on US TV as you were too busy calling us cheese eating surrender monkeys... For the Iraqi wars, the warmongers won the argument again, but it would have been in the US interest to listen as history proved him right. Pyrrhic victories are of little use! It costed the USA vast resources and at the end they didn't get in return as much oil as they were expecting as the country is still very unstable 15 years on....

 

Militarism for its own sake is a very costly choice. Sometimes the regime that chooses it bears the entire cost, often the neighbors do, either in direct damages or opportunity costs of deterrence. 

When you are the big guy on the block, you can ignore the smaller bullies, as they harass and prey on the weak, or you can step up, using your capabilities to protect those who are less strong, because it’s the right thing to do. 

After a while you might decide that protecting those who choose to not protect themselves, and depend on your charity is a bad investment. When the neighbors complain about your arsenal, you simply take it home, and let them deal with their adjacent problems, with the deals that they made, and the underfunded poorly trained and led neighborhood watch that they bough such nice parade uniforms for.  . 
 

When they get the bill for their choices, you merely shrug, and invest your peace dividend. 
 

I went and looked at "la Royale" and found this in Wiki: I do hope they are incorrect, though I guess I could believe that if there  was a navy with 4 times more

Personnel strength of the French Navy 2015
Category Strength
Commissioned officers 4,500
Petty officers 23,600
Seamen 6,600
Volunteers 767
Civilian employees 2,800

chiefs than seamen it could be the French. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking at the source, it's even worse, as the whole force is top heavy. image.png.f4dbe3fc9cbc4a451b6dd31237a09861.png

 

 

By comparison the US Navy also has more chiefs than seamen 

image.png.51bd69c72a513be3e9bf4ece95495932.png

image.png

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I am guessing that in peacetime highly professional armed forces, the only ones counted at the lowest level are relatively new or short term, having not yet gained any qualification or skills which would move them to the next levels up?

In wartime, and particularly with conscription, the bottom level would swell fast?

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29 minutes ago, cms said:

I am guessing that in peacetime highly professional armed forces, the only ones counted at the lowest level are relatively new or short term, having not yet gained any qualification or skills which would move them to the next levels up?

In wartime, and particularly with conscription, the bottom level would swell fast?

A department of defense staff member explained to me (paraphrasing, maybe not well rememberd) other than the limited number of forces deployed in peace keeping and other relatively low commitment international efforts the only need for front line positions was for the officer corps to practice on. As he described it, it sounded like the frontline were in fact training the apprentice officer corps given the rate at which officers rotated.

As I understood the logic in the event of heightened tensions or outright conflict if you had an “oversupplied” officer corps you could more rapidly scale up the front line to get to normal ratios but if you first had to train officers you were still recruiting by the time most conflicts were over.

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1 hour ago, LionessRacing said:

Militarism for its own sake is a very costly choice. Sometimes the regime that chooses it bears the entire cost, often the neighbors do, either in direct damages or opportunity costs of deterrence. 

When you are the big guy on the block, you can ignore the smaller bullies, as they harass and prey on the weak, or you can step up, using your capabilities to protect those who are less strong, because it’s the right thing to do. 

After a while you might decide that protecting those who choose to not protect themselves, and depend on your charity is a bad investment. When the neighbors complain about your arsenal, you simply take it home, and let them deal with their adjacent problems, with the deals that they made, and the underfunded poorly trained and led neighborhood watch that they bough such nice parade uniforms for.  . 
 

When they get the bill for their choices, you merely shrug, and invest your peace dividend. 
 

I went and looked at "la Royale" and found this in Wiki: I do hope they are incorrect, though I guess I could believe that if there  was a navy with 4 times more

Personnel strength of the French Navy 2015
Category Strength
Commissioned officers 4,500
Petty officers 23,600
Seamen 6,600
Volunteers 767
Civilian employees 2,800

chiefs than seamen it could be the French. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking at the source, it's even worse, as the whole force is top heavy. image.png.f4dbe3fc9cbc4a451b6dd31237a09861.png

 

 

By comparison the US Navy also has more chiefs than seamen 

image.png.51bd69c72a513be3e9bf4ece95495932.png

image.png

I am not sure why you are bringing these numbers but I did my national service in the navy and these numbers look OK to me.

In the navy, as soon as you have some professional qualification you become a petty officer, so most people on board were petty officers, but only a few petty officers were "bosses". Obviously as a conscript, I was a mere seaman. I was on a minesweeper, my duties were tillerman at sea and when docked I was responsible of the paint store but I would spend most of my time painting and maintaining stuff. Out of a crew of about 45, we were about a dozen of seamen, we were 2 with this job, 2 guys who were mostly "waiters", 1 assistant cook, 4 guys in the machine and 2 on sonar duties. There were 5 commanding officers (the skipper, 3 watch officers and a guy in charge of the divers who technically were a separate unit from the rest of the crew) and the rest were petty officers who had all the technical skills to maintain and operate complicated machinery (1 main engine, 1 diesel generator, 3 gas turbines, high tech sonar, remote control submarine camera, electric drive, bow thrusters, small guns etc...), dive, neutralise mines etc... Although they were petty officers they were also helping with on board chores (mainly painting and cleaning)

1920px-C%C3%A9ph%C3%A9e_BALTOPS_2010c.JP

 

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31 minutes ago, Panoramix said:

I am not sure why you are bringing these numbers but I did my national service in the navy and these numbers look OK to me.

Likely to be projection. The US perspective is considerably different, where the assumption that other countries are also grossly overspending and do not get value for their spend on military. While most countries are guilty of inefficiency and 'overspending' on their military, the US is in a league all on its own.

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I was prompted by the question of what the Maritime forces of the EU would be with the departure of the RN from Brexit, that would enable them to enforce treaties or to protect fishing and commerce. 

Here's a summary from the Common Security and Defence: 

 

image.thumb.png.70232b9bf3811d1a3deb7081a3ec732d.png

 

France being one of the larger nations, and one of the acknowledged Nuclear powers, and among the few with a Carrier; was worthy of looking at as the rest are essentially frigate forces. While the Dutch, Portuguese and Spanish all have maritime heritage, they have not had recent naval prowess. The Italians never recovered from Taranto, and the Bundemarine is not a factor, though history suggests that is capable of changing, I don't know if they retain the heavy shipbuilding any longer. 

With the attempt to put together an "EU defense force" the UN model is worthy of examination. Peacekeepers from army/police are feasible if problematic as they tend to be those countries that see value in hiring out their troops. Integrating a viable multinational force of Air/naval with the velocity of modern warfare and need to de-conflict will be a challenge. Not clear that there's the ability to integrate between various systems beyond VHF, and that will be a factor in future conflicts. Ships are part of the equation, but can be built or bought, a cadre of trained mariners and aviators is a longer term proposition. The USN carrier strike groups are unmatched at the moment in offensive capability, and should the EU try to grown one, it will take decades

I was initially surprised at the distribution of the ratings, and checked by comparison to the USN, where there's a very clear cutoff at Captain (~3000) to Admiral (~200 total) and the mid level bulge is in Commanders/Lieutenants, are similarly with the Mid level NCO's where entry level either go up or out, and the attrition from level to level in the officers is pretty fixed. 

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On 12/23/2019 at 2:12 PM, Sea warrior said:

That’s the trouble with you lot, you are incapable of thinking for yourselves And rely totally on “links” and “graphs” provided by others.

Only an idiot would deny that generally speaking, as people get older they get wiser and with the gained knowledge and  experience, they change their minds on subjects and issues.

At least the intelligent ones will which leaves you lot at a disadvantage.

Right, so your argument is basically I'm older and (think I'm) wiser and therefore right? That's pretty low grade effort from someone accusing others of not thinking for themselves. 
Nothing you've said disproves anything I mentioned. Come back when you actually have something to say. 
 

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1 minute ago, MiddayGun said:

Only an idiot would deny that generally speaking, as people get older they get wiser and with the gained knowledge and  experience, they change their minds on subjects and issues.

There's an awful lot of assumptions wrapped up in this. Let's unpack it. 

As people get older (and lets set a baseline of perhaps 18 yr as the start of adulthood)

You assert that they get wiser, with no particular proof offered. 

The possibility of additional experiences, structured and casual learning from observation and reflection certainly would enable them to have more possible knowledge, if they choose to accept it, and integrate it. The counter example is that of the "set in their ways" oldster who refuses to learn anything new. 

While accumulation of knowledge is straightforwards the development of wisdom is less so. We all know many who possess a lot of knowledge but are foolish, or unable to synthesize from that knowledge a predictable outcome. "Socialists" would be an example that assert that "this time it will be different" against all previous experiences 

Experience can be useful in one of two ways: either to provide diverse problems/solutions or to reinforce a smaller set of cook book solutions. If you merely repeat the same set of experiences for a long duration, you might be very accomplished in that pattern. but have no ability to do anything else competently. 

As regards changing their minds on anything, how is that linked to knowledge or wisdom? The long life that forced changes of environment may not lead to flexibility, it may generate a backlash and denial. 

 

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5 minutes ago, LionessRacing said:

There's an awful lot of assumptions wrapped up in this. Let's unpack it. 

As people get older (and lets set a baseline of perhaps 18 yr as the start of adulthood)

You assert that they get wiser, with no particular proof offered. 

The possibility of additional experiences, structured and casual learning from observation and reflection certainly would enable them to have more possible knowledge, if they choose to accept it, and integrate it. The counter example is that of the "set in their ways" oldster who refuses to learn anything new. 

While accumulation of knowledge is straightforwards the development of wisdom is less so. We all know many who possess a lot of knowledge but are foolish, or unable to synthesize from that knowledge a predictable outcome. "Socialists" would be an example that assert that "this time it will be different" against all previous experiences 

Experience can be useful in one of two ways: either to provide diverse problems/solutions or to reinforce a smaller set of cook book solutions. If you merely repeat the same set of experiences for a long duration, you might be very accomplished in that pattern. but have no ability to do anything else competently. 

As regards changing their minds on anything, how is that linked to knowledge or wisdom? The long life that forced changes of environment may not lead to flexibility, it may generate a backlash and denial. 

 

That was me quoting and replying to Sea Warrior, the quote you just replied to was by him and not me. 

Although I do actually agree with what you've written, its just aimed at the wrong bloke!

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22 minutes ago, LionessRacing said:

The long life that forced changes of environment may not lead to flexibility, it may generate a backlash and denial. 

Agreed. Well said.

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57 minutes ago, MiddayGun said:

Right, so your argument is basically I'm older and (think I'm) wiser and therefore right? That's pretty low grade effort from someone accusing others of not thinking for themselves. 
Nothing you've said disproves anything I mentioned. Come back when you actually have something to say. 
 

 

48 minutes ago, LionessRacing said:

There's an awful lot of assumptions wrapped up in this. Let's unpack it. 

As people get older (and lets set a baseline of perhaps 18 yr as the start of adulthood)

You assert that they get wiser, with no particular proof offered. 

The possibility of additional experiences, structured and casual learning from observation and reflection certainly would enable them to have more possible knowledge, if they choose to accept it, and integrate it. The counter example is that of the "set in their ways" oldster who refuses to learn anything new. 

While accumulation of knowledge is straightforwards the development of wisdom is less so. We all know many who possess a lot of knowledge but are foolish, or unable to synthesize from that knowledge a predictable outcome. "Socialists" would be an example that assert that "this time it will be different" against all previous experiences 

Experience can be useful in one of two ways: either to provide diverse problems/solutions or to reinforce a smaller set of cook book solutions. If you merely repeat the same set of experiences for a long duration, you might be very accomplished in that pattern. but have no ability to do anything else competently. 

As regards changing their minds on anything, how is that linked to knowledge or wisdom? The long life that forced changes of environment may not lead to flexibility, it may generate a backlash and denial. 

 

So two assertions about the link between age and wisdom with no evidence offered or credible sources cited.

Is that wise or convincing?

Abstract

Evidence from a psychological approach to the study of wisdom is reviewed with regard to the relationship between age and wisdom. Between 20 and 75 years, age has been demonstrated to show a zero relation with wisdom-related knowledge and judgement. A complex pattern of person characteristics and experiential features have to coalesce in order for wisdom to emerge. However, it is not only growing experience that (on average) comes with age but also decreases in basic intellectual functioning and changes in the personality make-up that seem to undermine rather than facilitate the development of wisdom-related knowledge and judgement.

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1 hour ago, KC375 said:

 

So two assertions about the link between age and wisdom with no evidence offered or credible sources cited.

Is that wise or convincing?

Abstract

Evidence from a psychological approach to the study of wisdom is reviewed with regard to the relationship between age and wisdom. Between 20 and 75 years, age has been demonstrated to show a zero relation with wisdom-related knowledge and judgement. A complex pattern of person characteristics and experiential features have to coalesce in order for wisdom to emerge. However, it is not only growing experience that (on average) comes with age but also decreases in basic intellectual functioning and changes in the personality make-up that seem to undermine rather than facilitate the development of wisdom-related knowledge and judgement.

Well according to Sea Warrior, providing links and sources just means you can't think for yourself. :rolleyes:

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3 hours ago, MiddayGun said:

Right, so your argument is basically I'm older and (think I'm) wiser and therefore right? That's pretty low grade effort from someone accusing others of not thinking for themselves. 
Nothing you've said disproves anything I mentioned. Come back when you actually have something to say. 
 

That’s a pretty stupid post even for a Yorkshire pudding.

You seem to have missed the part where I said “generally speaking” which was inserted to specifically address dummies like yourself, and to dispute that as people do (again, generally speaking) gain experience and wisdom through age is at best an  infantile position to take.

 

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49 minutes ago, MiddayGun said:

Well according to Sea Warrior, providing links and sources just means you can't think for yourself. :rolleyes:

Again, I didn’t say that it means “you can’t think for yourself “ it just means that you don't think for yourselves but instead rely on links found through random searches of the internet etc.

 

You, you pudding brain... 

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1 hour ago, MiddayGun said:

Well according to Sea Warrior, providing links and sources just means you can't think for yourself. :rolleyes:

Well that's a source I don't find persuasive. Especially as I think that source confuses opinion with well formed and logically supported thoughts.

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Merry Christmas, in assorted time zones.

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11 hours ago, Sea warrior said:

I wish you all a merry Breximass and a happy trade agreement filled new year :D 

I couldn’t have put it better, Merry Xmas guys 

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The deadline for negotiating the UK's future relationship with the EU may need to be extended, the European Commission president has said.

Boris Johnson has said the post-Brexit transition period will not be extended beyond 31 December 2020.

But Ursula von der Leyen told French newspaper Les Echos both sides needed to think seriously about whether this was enough time to reach an agreement.

She said she was "very worried" about how little time was available.

"It would be reasonable to evaluate the situation mid-year and then, if necessary, agree on extending the transition period," she told the paper.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50928295

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On 12/24/2019 at 3:49 PM, MiddayGun said:

Right, so your argument is basically I'm older and (think I'm) wiser and therefore right? That's pretty low grade effort from someone accusing others of not thinking for themselves. 
Nothing you've said disproves anything I mentioned. Come back when you actually have something to say. 
 

A word to the wise: you're wasting your time trying to reason with that ass-carrot.

And please don't quote him.

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C’mon Jack, I don’t read this thread for Bruce’s sage advice...

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On 12/24/2019 at 10:27 AM, LionessRacing said:

I was prompted by the question of what the Maritime forces of the EU would be with the departure of the RN from Brexit, that would enable them to enforce treaties or to protect fishing and commerce. 

Here's a summary from the Common Security and Defence: 

 

France being one of the larger nations, and one of the acknowledged Nuclear powers, and among the few with a Carrier; was worthy of looking at as the rest are essentially frigate forces. While the Dutch, Portuguese and Spanish all have maritime heritage, they have not had recent naval prowess. The Italians never recovered from Taranto, and the Bundemarine is not a factor, though history suggests that is capable of changing, I don't know if they retain the heavy shipbuilding any longer. 

With the attempt to put together an "EU defense force" the UN model is worthy of examination. Peacekeepers from army/police are feasible if problematic as they tend to be those countries that see value in hiring out their troops. Integrating a viable multinational force of Air/naval with the velocity of modern warfare and need to de-conflict will be a challenge. Not clear that there's the ability to integrate between various systems beyond VHF, and that will be a factor in future conflicts. Ships are part of the equation, but can be built or bought, a cadre of trained mariners and aviators is a longer term proposition. The USN carrier strike groups are unmatched at the moment in offensive capability, and should the EU try to grown one, it will take decades

I was initially surprised at the distribution of the ratings, and checked by comparison to the USN, where there's a very clear cutoff at Captain (~3000) to Admiral (~200 total) and the mid level bulge is in Commanders/Lieutenants, are similarly with the Mid level NCO's where entry level either go up or out, and the attrition from level to level in the officers is pretty fixed. 

It is interesting to see how important the UK remains to NATO.

I dont think the carrier strike groups are the right way to protect fishing rights or enforce custom and tariff borders. Although I confess part of me would like to see the USS Gerald Ford steam into Belfast to land the US Tariff negotiating team :). "So you dont like chlorinated chicken huh?..... perhaps you would like some sea sparrows!"

 

image.png.cf865b6cb63a2ef49745b76e0a44b591.png

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2 hours ago, Sail4beer said:

C’mon Jack, I don’t read this thread for Bruce’s sage advice...

I dont know. Its better than his advice on Brexit:

 

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on topic, a nice little analysis of brexit talks to come in the next year, from our local financial times, zest of the story is that most of the european treaties with other countries or regions are about alignment, not divergence, and that is what Bojo seems to want : being able to vastly diverge from EU rules while still cherry picking on the goodies of the EU ... there is no such scenario, and even less of a willingless to go along with this line of thought. Apart from that, clear that this self imposed 1 year timing is also intended by Bojo and his spin doctors as leverage towards the EU, "say chaps, you'll need to cave a bit or the year is through and then it's no deal" ... might turn out to be another shoot yourself in the foot exercise.

Happy easter y'all, or noel bonanee as they quip overhere

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1 hour ago, IPLore said:

I dont know. Its better than his advice on Brexit:

Nice to see your best efforts IPLore.

Be great to hear you give a summary of my advice on Brexit you supposedly oppose.

You must know my positions well to offer such sage criticism.

Instead you post advice on growing sage by Mark Abbott-Compton. Sage indeed.

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When it comes to Nato, Bojo and Farage are not on the same page. Farage:

Quote

NATO could collapse if the U.K. joined a European defense union, Nigel Farage said Monday.

The Brexit Party leader claimed “NATO and a European defense union cannot coexist equally” and warned U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson that he had to make a choice.

“No man effectively can serve both,” Farage said Monday during a campaign event in Buckley, north Wales, on the eve of a NATO leaders' summit in London. “We’ve got a decision to make.”

“If we leave the European defense union, it becomes valueless. Because without [the U.K.], it doesn’t have the muscle that it needs,” Farage said. “But if we stay, don’t be surprised if NATO falls to pieces and we leave the security and protection that America had for us, thank God, twice in the last century.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-and-european-defense-union-cannot-coexist-nigel-farage/

Johnson:

Quote

Boris Johnson has hailed Nato as "the most successful alliance in history" after talks with leaders near London.

The PM insisted there was "very great solidarity" within the alliance, amid tensions on its 70th anniversary.

He also praised the role of the United States, adding the country had been a "pillar of stability" on security issues.

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50653296

Farage will find himself increasingly in the political wilderness, as Bojo no longer needs his or his party's support.

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Will the EU wave through the sneaky changes Boris has made to the deal? The Commission will consult with the 27 and the parliament will have to vote, so it could be an interesting juncture?

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What sneaky stuff, it is more fluff. So it will be passed and it after that EU will offer extension before June, UK will refuse.
So nobody can blame the EU. And the EU solved the GFA problem, the money and for a while the citizens right. Gloves of between June and December, but in silence as it will happen in talks between the task forces. Future TA is up for grabs. UK dictates what it wants, EU counteroffers. After all those years nobody will try to explain the other side why they are wrong. That is over. Behind the scene experienced civil servants have done their job. It is up to BJ and his gang to decide how much risk they are willing to take, and for VDL and 27 members to respond to that.
Over a year the finale.

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Do you have Guy Verhofstadt's word on that?

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1 hour ago, LeoV said:

What sneaky stuff, it is more fluff. So it will be passed and it after that EU will offer extension before June, UK will refuse.
So nobody can blame the EU. And the EU solved the GFA problem, the money and for a while the citizens right. Gloves of between June and December, but in silence as it will happen in talks between the task forces. Future TA is up for grabs. UK dictates what it wants, EU counteroffers. After all those years nobody will try to explain the other side why they are wrong. That is over. Behind the scene experienced civil servants have done their job. It is up to BJ and his gang to decide how much risk they are willing to take, and for VDL and 27 members to respond to that.
Over a year the finale.

Major changes to the Bill 

Some major changes have been made between the original October WAB and the newly introduced December WAB. In an initial assessment we have been able to identify several key differences. However, this should not be taken as a definitive account of the changes that have been made to the text of the Bill. 

What has been removed from the WAB? 

Three clauses and one Schedule have been removed outright from the original October WAB. These were the clauses: 

  • giving MPs a veto over any Minister agreeing to an extension of the transition or implementation period in the Joint Committee (what was clause 30); 
  • giving MPs a veto over the start of future relationship negotiations with the EU, an approval role in relation to the Government’s negotiating mandate, and an enhanced Parliamentary approval process for any future relationship treaty subsequently negotiated with the EU (what was clause 31); and 
  • providing additional procedural protections for workers’ rights that currently form part of EU law, but which would not be protected against modification, repeal or revocation in domestic law once the transition or implementation period has ended (what was clause 34 and Schedule 4). 

What has been added to the WAB? 

There are five clauses that have been added to the WAB that were not present in the original October WAB. These relate to: 

  • reporting requirements to Parliament where the Joint Committee’s dispute procedures are used (new clause 30); 
  • prohibiting any UK Minister from agreeing to an extension of the transition or implementation period in the Joint Committee (new clause 33); 
  • prohibiting UK Ministers from using the written procedure to take decisions in the Joint Committee (new clause 35); 
  • the repeal of statutory provisions the Government maintains are now unnecessary or spent (new clause 36); and 
  • removing (via clause 37) the Government’s existing obligations (under section 17 of the EUWA) with regard to unaccompanied children seeking asylum in the EU who have family members in the UK. This would be replaced with a duty to make a policy statement to Parliament within 2 months of the Act passing. 

What has been modified in the WAB? 

The following may not be exhaustive, but an initial review of the December version of the WAB suggests the following changes to other clauses: 

  • Clause 20(7) in the October WAB would have allowed a Minister of the Crown to extend the life of the standing service provision (under which the UK would make financial payments to the EU) beyond March 2021. The Government has removed the power to extend that provision in the current version of the Bill. 
  • Clause 26 has a new subsection (1). This provision allows Ministers, by regulations, to specify the circumstances in which lower courts could depart from the rulings of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) after the transition or implementation period. Without this new provision, lower courts would have had to follow the UK Supreme Court’s rulings (and the High Court of Justiciary’s rulings in Scotland) on retained EU law, but otherwise would have to follow CJEU rulings unless and until the substance of domestic law changed or those higher courts had departed from the rulings of the CJEU. 
  • Clause 29 provided a role for the House of Commons’ European Scrutiny Committee in relation to developments in EU law of “vital national interest” to the UK during the transition or implementation period. However, the October WAB made no provision for the House of Lords in this regard. New subsections 3-4 in the December WAB give an equivalent role to the European Union Committee of the House of Lords. 
  • Paragraph 10 of Schedule 2 previously would have prohibited the Independent Monitoring Authority from delegating certain of its functions to a committee, member or employee. Two functions that were prohibited in the October version of the WAB, but which are not in the December version, concern decisions to carry out inquiries or to intervene in legal proceedings. New paragraph 39 would also make it possible to transfer the functions of the IMA to another public body by regulations. 

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2 hours ago, cms said:

Do you have Guy Verhofstadt's word on that?

grin, my good old chum, or rather not, plays his role : bad cop and overall loudmouth... but there is another "petit belge" who is much more instrumental, that is Didier Seeuws, unknown to most, his main task in the team is to keep the 27 aligned, sort of a euro chief whip, to stop the continuous trials of our cross channel neigbours to divide the 27 , and as such so far he has done a fantastic job, will be needed for the next year too.

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The year is 2192. The British Prime Minister visits Brussels to ask for an extension of the Brexit deadline. No one remembers where this tradition originated, but every year it attracts many tourists from all over the world.
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A good piece about the BBC in particular and where we are and how we got here 

(Everything good except the bit around the 26 min mark :D)

 

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17 hours ago, cms said:

Major changes to the Bill 

Some major changes have been made between the original October WAB and the newly introduced December WAB. In an initial assessment we have been able to identify several key differences. However, this should not be taken as a definitive account of the changes that have been made to the text of the Bill. 

What has been removed from the WAB? 

Three clauses and one Schedule have been removed outright from the original October WAB. These were the clauses: 

  • giving MPs a veto over any Minister agreeing to an extension of the transition or implementation period in the Joint Committee (what was clause 30); 
  • giving MPs a veto over the start of future relationship negotiations with the EU, an approval role in relation to the Government’s negotiating mandate, and an enhanced Parliamentary approval process for any future relationship treaty subsequently negotiated with the EU (what was clause 31); and 
  • providing additional procedural protections for workers’ rights that currently form part of EU law, but which would not be protected against modification, repeal or revocation in domestic law once the transition or implementation period has ended (what was clause 34 and Schedule 4). 

What has been added to the WAB? 

There are five clauses that have been added to the WAB that were not present in the original October WAB. These relate to: 

  • reporting requirements to Parliament where the Joint Committee’s dispute procedures are used (new clause 30); 
  • prohibiting any UK Minister from agreeing to an extension of the transition or implementation period in the Joint Committee (new clause 33); 
  • prohibiting UK Ministers from using the written procedure to take decisions in the Joint Committee (new clause 35); 
  • the repeal of statutory provisions the Government maintains are now unnecessary or spent (new clause 36); and 
  • removing (via clause 37) the Government’s existing obligations (under section 17 of the EUWA) with regard to unaccompanied children seeking asylum in the EU who have family members in the UK. This would be replaced with a duty to make a policy statement to Parliament within 2 months of the Act passing. 

What has been modified in the WAB? 

The following may not be exhaustive, but an initial review of the December version of the WAB suggests the following changes to other clauses: 

  • Clause 20(7) in the October WAB would have allowed a Minister of the Crown to extend the life of the standing service provision (under which the UK would make financial payments to the EU) beyond March 2021. The Government has removed the power to extend that provision in the current version of the Bill. 
  • Clause 26 has a new subsection (1). This provision allows Ministers, by regulations, to specify the circumstances in which lower courts could depart from the rulings of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) after the transition or implementation period. Without this new provision, lower courts would have had to follow the UK Supreme Court’s rulings (and the High Court of Justiciary’s rulings in Scotland) on retained EU law, but otherwise would have to follow CJEU rulings unless and until the substance of domestic law changed or those higher courts had departed from the rulings of the CJEU. 
  • Clause 29 provided a role for the House of Commons’ European Scrutiny Committee in relation to developments in EU law of “vital national interest” to the UK during the transition or implementation period. However, the October WAB made no provision for the House of Lords in this regard. New subsections 3-4 in the December WAB give an equivalent role to the European Union Committee of the House of Lords. 
  • Paragraph 10 of Schedule 2 previously would have prohibited the Independent Monitoring Authority from delegating certain of its functions to a committee, member or employee. Two functions that were prohibited in the October version of the WAB, but which are not in the December version, concern decisions to carry out inquiries or to intervene in legal proceedings. New paragraph 39 would also make it possible to transfer the functions of the IMA to another public body by regulations. 

Are those changes UK's internal stuff or changes to https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/840655/Agreement_on_the_withdrawal_of_the_United_Kingdom_of_Great_Britain_and_Northern_Ireland_from_the_European_Union_and_the_European_Atomic_Energy_Community.pdf ?

If latter still stands and Boris agrees, then it will go down as Leo said, imho.

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It is the bill to implement WA, not the WA itself. But in the WA bill there must be nothing that makes the WA impossible.

In all Brexit with a very loose TA only brings;

-stepping outside the SM and customs union and be free on international market.
-No FOM, but Visa, for tourist and workers.
-No Eu laws to follow any more workers rights etc.
-No tie to the Euro, Pound is on its own.
-No cooperation in fields of research, CAP, investment, university programs etc.
-No EU flags in the UK on official buildings
-No direct payments to the EU, indirect tariffs.

So what will the average Brit notice of al this ?
FOM and flags, and Pound if they go on holiday.
FOM, they will see Visa holders, Flags they get used to in a week, and they are not going that much on holiday to really notice Pound exchange.
So nothing et all.
BJ only hope is that being outside the EU will make the UK richer, high Pound, low food prices, lots of export.
And quick, within 3 years. And almost nobody believes that. Brexit has a big risk of letting a lot of leavers down.
Half a country angry; told you so.
Quarter of the country; damn that did not work out. Why did we make such a fuss about it ?
Quarter still believing in unicorns.
 

EM5vU-FXkAIAOUy.jpg

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2020 will be an interesting year. 

BJ has a large majority in terms if seats, but only 43% of votes. Something that would not be called a majority in most other countries. Might be that a majority of people is against his politics. 

Can he deliver Canada ++++ as promised? Propably not. Can he get any FTA while diverging largely from EU rules. Propably no. Can he cherry pick on FT? Propably EU politicians but also the people on the streets of europe are more than fed up of this british behaviour, so propably no. Can he attract foreign investments? Propably no. Can he get a good deal for the City of London or the british service industry? Does he have the money to build hospitals? Will polish nurses have any reasons to stay or come to the UK? Will troubles come back in NI due to the arrangements? Will bombs explode in Belfast or in London? Will the scots stay in UK or in EU? Will he extend the transition period? Will he publish the russian papers? Will all of the 43% of his voters like the seemingly only possible solution: "nodeal" after the transition period? Will it be easier to deal with VDL instead of Juncker? Will he still be able to make the HOC or Labour responsible for what is going to happen? 

Lot's of questions, little time. 

In the meantime  UK companies depending on export are either moving to EU or EU companies will take them out of their supply chains, banks are moving from London to Dublin, Paris and Frankfurt. EU companies employ 2 million workers in the UK - what is going to happen with them? EU countries are moving on with their nodeal preparations, but expect the UK to come back sooner or later, cause BJs hard Brexit might sound like a great idea, but may as well economically be impossible. 

 

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 EMQAPyfXsAAWKLI.png

How are the UK doing of you compare the regions in all EU countries;
40 years of communist misrule in eastern Germany is now not as damaging as being in the badly managed parts of the UK under capitalists rule. It took 30 years of investment to make the eastern area more prosper. UK can not expect that effect in 10 years, will be more the same timespan if all falls their way. Truly the UK is just above mediocre in Europe with Belgium and France being almost equal, just under Italy and just above Spain.

So there are a lot of poor regions in the UK, hoping Brexit will solve that as they are led to believe the EU is to blame, answer will be; Nah.

ps. Regional inequality of GDP is NOT national inequality of income. The UK and France have equally high regional inequality of GDP, but the UK has significantly higher national inequality of income.
https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/1208090877769474048

 

 

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On 12/21/2019 at 5:16 PM, Sea warrior said:

 

People need to harden the fuck up

 

 

 

 

at least it will be cheaper to visit friends on the south coast next summer when the pound and dollar are on par

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Yes, it will be cheaper to do some racing in the UK.  The downside?  The racing will still be managed by England elites...

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2 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

at least it will be cheaper to visit friends on the south coast next summer when the pound and dollar are on par

Dreams are free :)

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On 12/29/2019 at 1:34 AM, Sail4beer said:

C’mon Jack, I don’t read this thread for Bruce’s sage advice..

Neither do I having for the 1st time put someone on ignore. Anyway after a jolly time on the water boring the Brexit fuck out of others, where do I start?

So Varadkar rules out divisive border poll. First he should read the GFA. He will find the RoI signed up to having no say in that decision, it rests solely with the UK's Sec to NI.

Apart from that thinking running against the demographic tide, the polls have a contrary view and his basis of using FPTP Nationalist count of around 40% is obviously flawed, noting Unionists also took a vote count hit and also don't have a majority.

Furthermore as the downside of Brexit unfolds it will test the resolve of even the most ardent Unionists, particularly as they are now completely irelevant in Westminister and a minority in NI for the first time since Stormont came into being post partition and creation of the Irish Free State and Ulster/NI.

That all aside most thinking Nationalists, incl those senior within Sinn Fein, acknowledge until more is done to "integrate" those both sides of the sectarian and political divide in advance of a border poll, the outcome though sucessful at the ballot box (both north and south), will leave unification far harder to successfully prosecute.

With the above in mind the 100 Year anniversary of partition in 2021 is probably the earliest that pressure will start build on the NI Sec to hold a border poll.

 

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11 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

at least it will be cheaper to visit friends on the south coast next summer when the pound and dollar are on par

Quoted for posterity and shit...

 

F4803ADE-814C-4874-B418-B8153A2BD309.png

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26 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Neither do I having for the 1st time put someone on ignore. Anyway after a jolly time on the water boring the Brexit fuck out of others, where do I start?

So Varadkar rules out divisive border poll. First he should read the GFA. He will find the RoI signed up to having no say in that decision, it rests solely with the UK's Sec to NI.

Apart from that the polls have a contrary view and his basis of using FPTP Nationalist count of around 40% is obviously flawed, noting Unionists also took a vote count hit. Furthermore as the downside of Brexit unfolds it will test the resolve of even the most ardent Unionists, particularly as they are now completely irelevant in Westminister and a minority in NI for the first time since Stormont came into being post partition and creation of the Irish Free State and Ulster/NI.

That all aside most thinking Nationalists, incl those senior within Sinn Fein, acknowledge until more is done to "integrate" those both sides of the sectarian and political divide in advance of a border poll, the outcome though sucessful at the ballot box (both north and south), will leave unification far harder to successfully prosecute.

With the above in mind the 100 Year anniversary of partition in 2021 is probably the earliest that pressure will start build on the NI Sec to hold a border poll.

 

I almost gave this post a “like”

 

 

almost......:-)

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First budget that was previous EU ruled is announced;

To replace EU CAP of £ 4.3b the budget from the UK for next year is £ 2.85b.

A: means a drop in avg subsidy from £28750 to £21000
B: UK farmers expected more money, not less.
C: UK farmers need more money as exporting will be more expensive.
D: Farms are not in London.
E: Farms do get other money out of other EU budgets, no news about them.
F: Most farmers do have reserves for one or two years.

Farmers for Brexit very quiet.
Tricky from Government to publish it now, everyone busy with New Year. But not a happy new year for farmers.
 

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Does not matter, they were promised the same amount.
And stop saying the EU does this so we have to follow it; UK is free now.

Budget spinning is already on its way, they make it look like the amount is the same. But not all the money in this budget will go to farmers but to habitat work, tree planting schemes, food sector development, and water and air quality improvements. Currently CAP allows for direct payments to farmers (subsidies), rural development payments (including agri-environment schemes) and certain market interventions. In Wales 15% of this budget is already earmarked for this other stuff.
It will start to affect farmers late 2020 due to how the money is allocated, and EU funds for longer term projects guaranteed till end 2020.

It has to be seen if the UK government pays up the 1.45b missing.
The 2018 agriculture bill was clear;
The UK Government has pledged to continue to commit the same cash total in funds (some €4bn per year) for farm support across the UK until the end of this parliament, expected in 2022. It has pledged that “any changes made to agricultural funding would reflect the Government’s aim of securing a better future for UK agriculture and for the environment”.

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17 minutes ago, LeoV said:

And stop saying the EU does this so we have to follow it; UK is free now.

Correct

18 minutes ago, LeoV said:

The UK Government has pledged to continue to commit the same cash total in funds (some €4bn per year) for farm support across the UK until the end of this parliament, expected in 2022. It has pledged that “any changes made to agricultural funding would reflect the Government’s aim of securing a better future for UK agriculture and for the environment”.

I think anybody but farmers would acknowledge that the subsidies at present are not working for the better good of the taxpayer, there's far too many business's and large land owners, making very fine livings, over the present "land ownership" imbalance of the CAP payments. The government in their 2019 manifesto openly state that there would be change in the way the subsidies are dispersed and I for one would welcome some sort of redistribution from the likes Of Jacko's company to more meaningful green and worthy causes. 

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21 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

The government in their 2019 manifesto openly state that there would be change in the way the subsidies are dispersed and I for one would welcome some sort of redistribution from the likes Of Jacko's company to more meaningful green and worthy causes. 

What did the Government's manifesto say about farming subsidies? 

What CAP subsidies does Jacko's company recieve?

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47 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

What did the Government's manifesto say about farming subsidies? 

What CAP subsidies does Jacko's company recieve?

Conservatives “Get Brexit Done – Unleashing Britain’s Potential”

 “Get Brexit done” is the mantra of the Conservative Party, as it aims to push on with life outside the European Union.

It sets out a five-point post-Brexit deal for farming, namely:

  • A shift from the “bureaucratic” CAP to a new system based on “public money for public goods” with a seven-year transition
  • A promise to maintain current EU spending on UK agriculture (about £3.2bn/year) for the next five years
  • A requirement for farmers to protect the environment and safeguard animal welfare through an environmental land management system
  • Encouragement for the public sector to “buy British”
  • An increase in the annual quota under the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Scheme from 2,500 to 10,000, and a points-based system for skilled migrant workers.

https://www.fwi.co.uk/news/farm-policy/election-2019-what-the-main-political-parties-plan-for-farming

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Unification of the island is driven by two factors:

1. Demographics.  The younger people in Northern Ireland are more secular, less divided by religion and the history of the Troubles and more open to unification. This is a slow moving but inevitable force for change. Ironically over time, it could lead to a reversal of roles for the Republicans (aka Sinn Fein) and the Unionists. It is possible that hard core Unionists are more likely to turn violent as they perceive they are in a struggle to preserve the identity of the Ulster province.  

2. Economics. In the end, it was economics that was the catalyst that brought down the wall between West and East Germany. A booming Irish economy and a stagnant Ulster economy would create a much faster impetus to a swing in favor of unification.

Thus the question really hangs on how much and how long is the rest of the UK prepared to subsidize the Northern Ireland economy.    The NI economy is a government subsidy economy, heavily dependent on subsidies from Westminster.   Government transfers from Westminister's budget have accounted for on average 20% of NI GDP over the last decade. NI has the highest level of public spending per person in the UK, currently running at UK pounds 13,954 per man, woman and child per annum! ....and despite this many NI services are considered in budgetary crisis. To put that in context, the GDP per capita in NI is only 15,200 pounds.  In 1992, the public sector accounted for 37% of the workforce.  

As long as Westminster and the UK electorate is prepared to subsidize NI, and the quality of life remains tolerable, then the pace of change towards unification will remain glacial dependent on demographics. But:

  • As  UK economic growth slows following Brexit,  tougher questions are going to be asked about budget allocations.  The formerly Labour strongholds in the economically hurting North of England delivered BJ his majority, not NI!
  • The government is no longer dependent on the DUP so their ability to demand economic bribes has diminished considerably   
  • English nationalism is on the rise.  The voters who have previously supported a "United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland" might look at the expense and favor something more ...ahem....succinct.

One factor that could save the NI economy and preserve the independence of Ulster is a potentially unique free trade zone arising as a result of the recent reconfiguration of the UK withdrawal agreement. If the temporary arrangement became permanent, where NI remains within the EU single market but also part of the sovereign United Kingdom with some form of digital custom borders at the Irish seaports....then NI would become a hugely attractive destination for UK corporate investment. British businesses would be falling over themselves to establish facilities in Ulster.  Ironically the DUP are ardently opposed to such an option. Thus I think the NI FTZ is unlikely, and I think it likely that there will be a unification of the island in my lifetime. 

To quote James Joyce and Bobby Sands:

"Tiocfaidh ár lá !"

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50 minutes ago, IPLore said:

"Tiocfaidh ár  !"

Me speake only one word of Irish, Guinness.

But gtrans says: "Our day will come".

 

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1 hour ago, Fiji Bitter said:

Me speake only one word of Irish, Guinness.

But gtrans says: "Our day will come".

 

Indeed.  That is the translation.  It is a short sentence with a great deal of passion attached. James Joyce used the phase (in English) spoken by an Irish Nationalist in his novel "Portrait of an Artist as a Young Man". It really jumped to fame as the last sentence (in Irish)  in Bobby Sands'  memoirs shortly before he died on hunger strike in a British Prison.  During the troubles it was sprayed on countless walls as graffiti and yelled by Provisional IRA in courts as they were sentenced. 

Most recently, and controversially,  the newly elected leader of SinnFein, Mary MacDonald,  at the 2018 party conference concluded her speech with "tiocfaidh ár lá".

In a benevolent sense she was saying, unification is coming.  However the phrase is so tied up with terrible memories of the Troubles that it still stirs unfortunate emotions.

 

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4 hours ago, IPLore said:

then NI would become a hugely attractive destination for UK corporate investment. British businesses would be falling over themselves to establish facilities in Ulster.

It would be pretty ironic if Diagio the London based owners of Guiness, having moved the entire production of European Guiness to Dublin due to the headline cooperate tax rates of Ireland being lower than England, now finds themselves having to move production to NI to garner the 0% cooperate tax case of the soon to be FTZ. :D

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45 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

0% cooperate tax

This is a serious issue. Most are already at least a little familiar with EU vs Apple / Ireland. Fewer are familiar with the French initiative to apply a digital tax, which retrospectively applies to the beginning of 2019. Trump wades in with his 'expert resolution skills'.

And the UK contemplates making a trade deal in this environment by the year's end.

It is little wonder why expert voices suggest that more time is needed.

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8 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

 ..The government in their 2019 manifesto openly state that there would be change in the way the subsidies are dispersed and I for one would welcome some sort of redistribution from the likes Of Jacko's company to more meaningful green and worthy causes. 

 

8 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

What did the Government's manifesto say about farming subsidies? 

What CAP subsidies does Jacko's company recieve?

 

7 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

Conservatives “Get Brexit Done – Unleashing Britain’s Potential”

 “Get Brexit done” is the mantra of the Conservative Party, as it aims to push on with life outside the European Union.

It sets out a five-point post-Brexit deal for farming, namely:

  • A shift from the “bureaucratic” CAP to a new system based on “public money for public goods” with a seven-year transition
  • A promise to maintain current EU spending on UK agriculture (about £3.2bn/year) for the next five years
  • A requirement for farmers to protect the environment and safeguard animal welfare through an environmental land management system
  • Encouragement for the public sector to “buy British”
  • An increase in the annual quota under the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Scheme from 2,500 to 10,000, and a points-based system for skilled migrant workers.

https://www.fwi.co.uk/news/farm-policy/election-2019-what-the-main-political-parties-plan-for-farming

So the new method of subsidy distribution is "A shift from the “bureaucratic” CAP  to a new system based on “public money for public goods ” with a seven-year transition".

You do realise that is gobblygook simply replicating changes already underway to the EU's CAP scheme?

- A requirement for farmers to protect the environment and safeguard animal welfare through an  environmental land management system.

This is already part of EU CAP scheme existing/forward and an area of complaint by industry as it having to carry the cost. 

- A promise to maintain current EU spending  on UK agriculture (about £3.2bn/year) for the next  five years

Interesting being that £3.2b was not included in the Government's 2020 forward spend budget tabled before Parliament packed up OR budget sprouted during campaign. BTW didn't the Red Bus say the £350m per week (incl EU CAP) was all going to the NHS?

- An increase in the annual quota under the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Scheme from 2,500 to 10,000, and a points-based system for skilled migrant workers.

You do realise the 2,500 was a 6 month visa pilot scheme (that industry slammed) introduced last year and that currently 75,000 migrant low skilled seasonal agricultural workers are employed annually. Where are the other 65,000 coming from? Also didn't the Red Bus say Brexit would end low paid EU workers taking their jobs?

Wayne what is it like to have a Government that lies it's guts out to its own people?

PS. Still waiting to hear about those CAP subsidies you claim Jacko's company recieves and available for redistribution.

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7 hours ago, IPLore said:

One factor that could save the NI economy and preserve the independence of Ulster is a potentially unique free trade zone arising as a result of the recent reconfiguration of the UK withdrawal agreement. 

Except that is founded on a comprehensive FTA being settled by next December where there is no extension. The prospects of that occuring are extremely remote. NI is going to remain fucked.

7 hours ago, IPLore said:

2. Economics. In the end, it was economics that was the catalyst that brought down the wall between West and East Germany. A booming Irish economy and a stagnant Ulster economy would create a much faster impetus to a swing in favor of unification.

Exactly what occured post WWII coming to a head in the late 60's and a significant component leading to the 30 year Troubles. Then the often forgotton component to the genius of the 1998 GFA was the introduction of the Common Market in 1992. Peace and unified economies go hand in hand, something London don't and have never got.

 

7 hours ago, IPLore said:

Thus the question really hangs on how much and how long is the rest of the UK prepared to subsidize the Northern Ireland economy.    The NI economy is a government subsidy economy, heavily dependent on subsidies from Westminster.   

This road has been well travelled in the Dublin by those opposed to reunification. There are numerous studies that show Dublin will not have to outlay anything like that currently paid for by London and obviously over time disappear.

7 hours ago, IPLore said:

Thus I think the NI FTZ is unlikely, and I think it likely that there will be a unification of the island in my lifetime. 

To quote James Joyce and Bobby Sands:

"Tiocfaidh ár lá !"

I'm hoping it will be in my lifetime too.

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5 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Except that is founded on a comprehensive FTA being settled by next December where there is no extension. The prospects of that occuring are extremely remote. NI is going to remain fucked.

That's one scenario. Sorry Jack, you don't have a monopoly of scenarios.

Northern Ireland may continue in this 'no man's land', without being negatively fornicated. Different solutions include the creation of a special zone through to amalgamation into Ireland.

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8 hours ago, IPLore said:

Indeed.  That is the translation.  It is a short sentence with a great deal of passion attached. James Joyce used the phase (in English) spoken by an Irish Nationalist in his novel "Portrait of an Artist as a Young Man". It really jumped to fame as the last sentence (in Irish)  in Bobby Sands'  memoirs shortly before he died on hunger strike in a British Prison.  During the troubles it was sprayed on countless walls as graffiti and yelled by Provisional IRA in courts as they were sentenced. 

Most recently, and controversially,  the newly elected leader of SinnFein, Mary MacDonald,  at the 2018 party conference concluded her speech with "tiocfaidh ár lá".

In a benevolent sense she was saying, unification is coming.  However the phrase is so tied up with terrible memories of the Troubles that it still stirs unfortunate emotions.

 

Tá ár lá tagtha

 

 

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On 12/31/2019 at 10:56 AM, jack_sparrow said:

That all aside most thinking Nationalists, incl those senior within Sinn Fein, acknowledge until more is done to "integrate" those both sides of the sectarian and political divide in advance of a border poll, the outcome though sucessful at the ballot box (both north and south), will leave unification far harder to successfully prosecute.

With regard to the work on the above NI integration and 2 way respect issue being necessary in advance of any border poll.

This just popped out in the usual end of year Government release of classified shit from decades ago, noting current Stormont impasse is partly over absence of an Irish Language Act.

Will we hear claims of balance with a Ulster Scots Language Act? 

Early attempts by supporters incl DUP, of Ulster-Scots to obtain Government funding for Ulster-Scots language and culture.

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On 12/26/2019 at 9:04 AM, The Dark Knight said:

The new Tourism Australia campaign targeting English tourists. Brexit reference at 1:18

 

 

Jaysus that worked a fast.

Brighton beach swamped with 500 drunk British backpackers on Christmas day .. Broken glass and vomit, twerking fat bottomed girls and I suspect they're sleeping it off there today.

This is what they left behind a couple of years back. at St Kilda GO HOME!!

image.jpeg.7d17db07cf80b5056e2430edc3712423.jpeg

Thanks ScoMo 

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Well, this is all feels now like wasted breath, I am sorry to say.  My dealings with the May gov were not particularly comfortable, but this bunch are a whole different story.  

The British People have the government that they deserve, based on their choices.  The UK is on a path for a future that is murky at best. 

I feel very sorry for the substantial numbers of people who are being carried along on this, but the opportunity was there to do something different and they did not.  In Scotland, and in Ireland, the people did make a different choice and the significant weakness of the UK political structure has been exposed.

I am happy for the openings in Scotland and Ireland, for the rights of a people to make their own way that are being explored.  

And in Eurpoe, while London fiddles and Australia burns, while the Anglo-American model exposes its failures, there is a current of responsibility that is rising on how to change the world.  I am very happy that our little advisory company has found a home in Nederland.  I expect that le petit sparrow also feels the same.

And one last comment, Mr. Marlow.  Why on earth would you assert that Sparrow's company was reliant on the CAP, without any evidence?  Berkely Hunt?

A merry  Hogmanay to you all, from a tall dark stranger...

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