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Brexit WTF, WTF

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8 minutes ago, IPLore said:

With the US taking such an aggressive stance on world trade.....one could not choose a more inauspicious time to go it alone,   

Isn't that so. By every measure the UK's Brexit timing could not be worse.

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1 hour ago, LeoV said:

One aspect is that the US is loosing a lot of its influence in the EU by Brexit.
The only country that really stood up for the US corporate sector was the UK politicians and its avalanche of think tanks.
Like https://www.wikispooks.com/wiki/Centre_for_European_Reform

Poland seems to be the next US friend in the EU. But their influence is marginal.

The US views the UK as one of its longest lasting and staunchest allies. Its the "Winston-Roosevelt" legacy.

However the US administration would consider it laughable that they have to rely on the UK to have influence in Brussels.  The US view on Brexit is simple:

1. The EU will be weaker with the departure of the UK.  US will be relatively stronger in trade negotiations with EU.

2. There will be opportunities for US service companies to take market share from UK service companies in the EU

3. There is an opportunity to renegotiate what the US regards as unfair terms of trade with the UK, demanding a more open market in the UK for US goods (especially agriculture) and increasing tariffs on UK goods to match sales taxes that are charged on domestic goods.

4. Favorable impact on NATO.

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Just to illustrate why China had to make concessions in trade negotiations with the US.

During the tariff war with China;

US exports to China declined $30 bn. ( a minor 0.1% of US GDP)  BUT China exports to the US declined by $70 bn.  ( a more significant 0.5% of gdp)

Did Harry and Meghan read the writing on the wall when they saw the general election result? 

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35 minutes ago, IPLore said:

Did Harry and Meghan read the writing on the wall when they saw the general election result? 

doubt it.  according to multiple sources, she'd been trying to get him to understand the most basic of facts since their wedding: "Who the fuck would want to be part of this ridiculous shitshow!!??"

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38 minutes ago, IPLore said:

Just to illustrate why China had to make concessions in trade negotiations with the US.

During the tariff war with China;

US exports to China declined $30 bn. ( a minor 0.1% of US GDP)  BUT China exports to the US declined by $70 bn.  ( a more significant 0.5% of gdp)

Did Harry and Meghan read the writing on the wall when they saw the general election result? 

sO tRUMP'S people were right?

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1 minute ago, MR.CLEAN said:

doubt it.  according to multiple sources, she'd been trying to get him to understand the most basic of facts since their wedding: "Who the fuck would want to be part of this ridiculous shitshow!!??"

Doubtless. But perhaps this gave her the opening she needed.

"Dahhrling. The subjects voted to leave.....so now we can leave!"  "If they can leave, so can we." etc.

One detail of Megxit surprised me. Vancouver climate over SoCal?

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9 minutes ago, IPLore said:

 

One detail of Megxit surprised me. Vancouver climate over SoCal?

If you think Meghan would select socal, you do not understand why they are leaving

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1 hour ago, IPLore said:

The US views the UK as one of its longest lasting and staunchest allies. Its the "Winston-Roosevelt" legacy.

However the US administration would consider it laughable that they have to rely on the UK to have influence in Brussels.  The US view on Brexit is simple:

1. The EU will be weaker with the departure of the UK.  US will be relatively stronger in trade negotiations with EU.

2. There will be opportunities for US service companies to take market share from UK service companies in the EU

3. There is an opportunity to renegotiate what the US regards as unfair terms of trade with the UK, demanding a more open market in the UK for US goods (especially agriculture) and increasing tariffs on UK goods to match sales taxes that are charged on domestic goods.

4. Favorable impact on NATO.

IP could you explain 4?

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5 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

If you think Meghan would select socal, you do not understand why they are leaving

I don't know enough about them to know and don't want to know either. I haven't seen them sailing. At least Charles sailed. Haha.

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8 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

If you think Meghan would select socal, you do not understand why they are leaving

I see Clean has not changed. Still has intimate information on interesting women.

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5 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

I don't know enough about them to know and don't want to know either. I haven't seen them sailing. At least Charles sailed. Haha.

press.  pap.  crowds.  chaos.  kids.

BC is nice and quiet, and Canadia's press is much more regulated than 'merka's

Socal not so much.  she been there done that.

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1 minute ago, fastyacht said:

sO tRUMP'S people were right?

1.  Chinese trade has become a bilateral issue in the USA.  https://feelthebern.org/bernie-sanders-on-china/ While democrats take pains to distinguish how they would approach negotiations differently from Dtrump....the reality is that it would be political suicide to oppose renegotiating terms of trade with China  (aka the trade war).

2. Drump's people include some very skilled people. The problems is that they dont last long. Cohen (a democrat who was D's NE advisor) was a case in point ...he is a brilliant man who made a big first step in cleaning up the US antiquated, complex and special interest laden tax code ....but being used as the token Jew in the white supremacy shit was a step too far for him. One of the key attributes of a great president is attracting good people and motivating them to do their best work. Despite his TV show, Drump is not a manager . 

3. Drump was spot on in identifying it as a key campaign issue in 2016. While Clinton was spinning around vaguely. Credit to him.  Execution of the negotiations is another issue. History will be the judge of that. Wilbur Ross is nobody's fool but his background is all "old industry"  so the tariffs were astonishingly inefficient for the first 18+ months.  Nobody in the US is going to build new steel mills.  But the odds were so stacked in the USA favor that they were bound to come out with an outcome that could be claimed a victory.  I would love to have seen someone like Bloomberg driving the bus in those negotiations. 

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3 minutes ago, IPLore said:

1.  Chinese trade has become a bilateral issue in the USA.  https://feelthebern.org/bernie-sanders-on-china/ While democrats take pains to distinguish how they would approach negotiations differently from Dtrump....the reality is that it would be political suicide to oppose renegotiating terms of trade with China  (aka the trade war).

2. Drump's people include some very skilled people. The problems is that they dont last long. Cohen (a democrat who was D's NE advisor) was a case in point ...he is a brilliant man who made a big first step in cleaning up the US antiquated, complex and special interest laden tax code ....but being used as the token Jew in the white supremacy shit was a step too far for him. One of the key attributes of a great president is attracting good people and motivating them to do their best work. Despite his TV show, Drump is not a manager . 

3. Drump was spot on in identifying it as a key campaign issue in 2016. While Clinton was spinning around vaguely. Credit to him.  Execution of the negotiations is another issue. History will be the judge of that. Wilbur Ross is nobody's fool but his background is all "old industry"  so the tariffs were astonishingly inefficient for the first 18+ months.  Nobody in the US is going to build new steel mills.  But the odds were so stacked in the USA favor that they were bound to come out with an outcome that could be claimed a victory.  I would love to have seen someone like Bloomberg driving the bus in those negotiations. 

Cohen seemed quite comfortable being used as the token Jew in the white supremacy shit. He stuck around long after Charlottesville, despite his professed "anguish", so he could see his soak-the-middle tax reforms through. 

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8 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

press.  pap.  crowds.  chaos.  kids.

BC is nice and quiet, and Canadia's press is much more regulated than 'merka's

Socal not so much.  she been there done that.

They're going to stay in a Commonwealth country. Courage only goes so far and they're not about to give up all the benefits of royalty.

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13 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

I don't know enough about them to know and don't want to know either. I haven't seen them sailing. At least Charles sailed. Haha.

Prince Phillip was the sailor.......and a reasonably good one at that.

He had a Dragon called Blue Bottle which he raced regularly at Cowes week and a Flying fifteen called Cowslip. He won several regattas with his long time crew Uffa Fox.

He also bought a beautiful classic offshore racer called Bloodhound which before his ownership had won line honours in the Fastnet.

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2 minutes ago, IStream said:

Cohen seemed quite comfortable being used as the token Jew in the white supremacy shit. He stuck around long after Charlottesville, despite his professed "anguish", so he could see his soak-the-middle tax reforms through. 

The question of the middle...

image.thumb.png.0bf48bf868078c18545033341498b43c.png

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29 minutes ago, Mambo Kings said:

Prince Phillip was the sailor.......and a reasonably good one at that.

He had a Dragon called Blue Bottle which he raced regularly at Cowes week and a Flying fifteen called Cowslip. He won several regattas with his long time crew Uffa Fox.

He also bought a beautiful classic offshore racer called Bloodhound which before his ownership had won line honours in the Fastnet.

Coweslip appeared in taht delightful old (Pathe?) film that someone posted recently to kick off a Flying 15 thread. On of my Uffa books has a photo of young Charles sailing with his dad--it might have been in the dragon, come to think of it.

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2 minutes ago, Mambo Kings said:

Prince Phillip was the sailor.......and a reasonably good one at that.

He had a Dragon called Blue Bottle which he raced regularly at Cowes week and a Flying fifteen called Cowslip. He won several regattas with his long time crew Uffa Fox.

He also bought a beautiful classic offshore racer called Bloodhound which before his ownership had won line honours in the Fastnet.

Bloodhound was an "offshore" 12m, and a bitch to handle. Tiller steered. But effective in the right hands. Restored by a nice guy with no sense, some stupid sails "because he saw that in a photo" and sadly not enough budget to do a real classic job. Now in Leith with Britannia.

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38 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

press.  pap.  crowds.  chaos.  kids.

BC is nice and quiet, and Canadia's press is much more regulated than 'merka's

Socal not so much.  she been there done that.

Meghan Markle's REAL dream is to move to Los Angeles... but only after Donald Trump's presidency ends, say pals

From the most respected and reputable of sources, not.

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16 minutes ago, cms said:

Bloodhound was an "offshore" 12m, and a bitch to handle. Tiller steered. But effective in the right hands. Restored by a nice guy with no sense, some stupid sails "because he saw that in a photo" and sadly not enough budget to do a real classic job. Now in Leith with Britannia.

She still sails. My kids and I were on board a few years ago in the sound of Mull. Only very light winds, though.

 Very, very beautiful boat. 

 For the PoiDH folks: couple of snaps from the trip. My son "on the helm" :-). He's bigger than I am, now, though...  and, no, that isn't me watching over him, that's regular Bloodhound crew.

Cheers,

              W.

Oppies-00981.jpg

Oppies-00878.jpg

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7 minutes ago, KC375 said:

I find it nearly impossible to read british tabloid press.  Any article that includes the words 'it is said' or 'according to her pals' needs to be used as kindling.

 

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1 minute ago, MR.CLEAN said:

I find it nearly impossible to read british tabloid press.  Any article that includes the words 'it is said' or 'according to her pals' needs to be used as kindling.

 

I thought their highest value / best use was with lining the bird cage?

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10 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

OK to finish off the mix using Lewis's "Where Cultures Divide"

So the Belgian will dovetail in nicely with the Frenchman/woman desires for debate and maybe even stretching it out like the Dutch.

Add to that that the Belgian, come lunch time, will load you up in the big Merc and take you out for an upmarket lunch.  If it drags into the evening you have take two for dinner.

Agreement or death by 3* cuisine :lol:

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1 hour ago, Laser1 said:

Add to that that the Belgian, come lunch time, will load you up in the big Merc and take you out for an upmarket lunch.  If it drags into the evening you have take two for dinner.

Agreement or death by 3* cuisine :lol:

company had a datacenter in Sarma, you had to contact them before lunch time, as it was usually a 2-3 bottle of wine lunch and were useless afterwards

 

you guys are fucked

 

a8529R1_460swp.webp

 

 

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2 hours ago, KC375 said:

I thought their highest value / best use was with lining the bird cage?

only if you have a finch or a sparrow or some other shit little bird.  My parrot wouldn't stop screaming "LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR" when I threw a Daily Mail in there.

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2 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

only if you have a finch or a sparrow or some other shit little bird.  My parrot wouldn't stop screaming "LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR" when I threw a Daily Mail in there.

I wonder where the parrot learned that...

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2 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

only if you have a finch or a sparrow or some other shit little bird.  My parrot wouldn't stop screaming "LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR" when I threw a Daily Mail in there.

Therefore, it is the parrot that is the reliable source of information.

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13 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

OK to finish off the mix using Lewis's "Where Cultures Divide"

Lewis hasn't produced a Belgium one so say "half-way" between French who show traits of imagination and a vigorous and very logical debate with that of the Dutch.

So the Belgian will dovetail in nicely with the Frenchman/woman desires for debate and maybe even stretching it out like the Dutch.

 

First off, having had decades of experience on a european (and worldwide) level professionally having talks, meetings, negotiations and even the odd big fight with hundreds if not thousands of people from all over the place, whenever I see graphs (or whatever you call them) like your Lewis things I get a bit weary.

Are they wrong? not necessarily, as a basic guideline they have a use, but obviously these are generalisations, averages, middle of the road observations. For each country you showed there I can give you lots of examples where some of the people I had to deal with would rather fit the image, and others totally not, and no, there were no real majorities.

But the problem is probably not Lewis himself, but the ones  quoting and copying such graphs out of the context of the book, where I am 500% sure there must be disclaimers pointing at my previous lines, at least if the book and Lewis is worthwhile at all.

The danger, and believe you me ... have been through this all too many times- is that this kind of info is typically used in those 2 day management seminars, where junior managers or wannabees are forced to soak this up like gospel, yes, gospel, instructed to them by the overpaid consultants, aka evangelists of the gospel ... and next these sorry inductees into the high church of whatever the gospel is named think that they have to apply it literally. And in a way that's what you're doing too dropping those graphs here, admittedly to a lesser extent than the evangelists.

grin, end of rant ... just as a p.s. : if Lewis did not make a chart on Belgium it would be because either it's not important enough (can live with that, no problem) or , and that would be to his credit, or maybe just not, maybe because he understood that making a chart like that on this country would be like directing a stampede of elephants into a minefield ;-) ... don't forget this country is an historical concoction for which we should "thank" the brits , consisting of language and culturally very different groups, we are the border of the latin and german sphere, but even more, thinking that the flemish people would be like the Dutch, now that would be yet another big mistake, just ask yourself why we kicked them out ?  ... and to really end, next you have these brussels types like me who don't fit in anywhere, I can fit in any of those graphs when it suits me, that's multicultural background and experience for you.

 

bugger, I'm starting to sound like Jack, must detox pronto or dive into the vino presto ... choices, choices ...

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4 minutes ago, Albatros said:

bugger, I'm starting to sound like Jack

Not at all.

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8 minutes ago, Bruce Hudson said:

Not at all.

But we all know that Jack cherry picks his graphs to suit the narrative, whats the quote,

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.";

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2 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

But we all know that Jack cherry picks his graphs to suit the narrative, whats the quote,

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.";

In my view Jack mostly does this unconsciously, and as a result of a steady diet of 'good' media. That's 'good' by Jack's judgment - as evidenced by who he quotes. We see a lot of reinforcing of entrenched beliefs.

Here, Albatros provides a hint: 

23 minutes ago, Albatros said:

The danger, and believe you me ... have been through this all too many times- is that this kind of info is typically used in those 2 day management seminars, where junior managers or wannabees are forced to soak this up like gospel, yes, gospel, instructed to them by the overpaid consultants, aka evangelists of the gospel ... and next these sorry inductees into the high church of whatever the gospel is named think that they have to apply it literally. And in a way that's what you're doing too dropping those graphs here, admittedly to a lesser extent than the evangelists.

 ...and evangelists beget more evangelists. Albatros in my view is correct, and of course it isn't limited to graphs.

When it comes to our own beliefs, we are at least to some small extent all evangelists, however some manage to retain objectivity. ...and sufficient abilities to truly listen to the beliefs of others without imposing our own.

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36 minutes ago, Bruce Hudson said:

 That's 'good' by Jack's judgment - as evidenced by who he quotes. We see a lot of reinforcing of entrenched beliefs.

I guess when Twitter is your main go to for information ( I think a recent poll quoted in the Sunday Times recently, stated that only 12% of Brits trust any information on Twitter ) and the Guardian, then I guess Jacks judgement has to be somewhat suspect.

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4 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

I find it nearly impossible to read british tabloid press.  Any article that includes the words 'it is said' or 'according to her pals' needs to be used as kindling.

 

 

The British quality gutter press has never been the same since the demise of the once highly esteemed News of the Screws. 

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1 hour ago, fastyacht said:

I had a Belgian friend in school. We never discussed graphs.

What on earth did you talk about then?

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6 minutes ago, Mambo Kings said:

 

The British quality gutter press has never been the same since the demise of the once highly esteemed News of the Screws. 

Of for fuck's sake now he's bringing that shit here.  Hopefully it does as well here as FuxNews does over there.

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/478006-rupert-murdoch-launches-us-sun

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2 hours ago, Albatros said:

....Are they wrong? not necessarily, as a basic guideline they have a use, but obviously these are generalisations, averages, middle of the road observations..... 

....and next these sorry inductees into the high church of whatever the gospel is named think that they have to apply it literally...

Albatros you should have stopped there at "observations". Beyond that you were fighting with yourself. :-)

I think you are being a bit tough on a book of this nature. It is afterall written for the benefit of those with no exposure or experience to provide a headstart not as a bible. I found it very interesting and matched my experience in general terms.

2 hours ago, Albatros said:

grin, end of rant ... just as a p.s. : if Lewis did not make a chart on Belgium it would be because either it's not important enough (can live with that, no problem ) or, and that would be to his credit, or maybe just not, maybe because he understood that making a chart like that on this country would be like directing a stampede of elephants  into a minefield ;-) ...

......and to really end, next you have these brussels types like me who don't fit in anywhere, I can fit in any of those graphs when it suits me, that's multicultural background and experience for you .

Far from unimportant he points out Belgiums economic pound for punch. He doesn't say it but I suspect no graph for reason you infer being too hard with bilculturalism of Flemish and Walloon. He makes the traits of each quite seperate and carves out Brussels exactly as you say.

For instance in his list of Manners & Taboos he says describing the Flemish; "They resent having been the lower classes in the past and are still rather annoyed at Brussels being a French speaking enclave in the middle of Flanders."

Of the Walloon; "Walloons resent being viewed as rather slow-witted French people and dislike the French tendency to make jokes at their expense." 

His introduction starts with the sentence "It is often said that Belgium is not a country, but a compromise." and ends with "There is no such thing as a single Belgian national cultural profile."

Seems to me he nailed it exactly for the reasons you point out.

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3 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

But we all know that Jack cherry picks his graphs to suit the narrative, whats the quote,

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.";

for the record, even if it is critical, my post was certainly not "anti Jack"

 

1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Albatros you should have stopped there at "observations". Beyond that you were fighting with yourself. :-)

I think you are being a bit tough on a book of this nature. It is afterall written for the benefit of those with no exposure or experience to provide a headstart not as a bible. I found it very interesting and matched my experience in general terms.

Far from unimportant he points out Belgiums economic pound for punch. He doesn't say it but I suspect no graph for reason you infer being too hard with bilculturalism of Flemish and Walloon. He makes the traits of each quite seperate and carves out Brussels exactly as you say.

For instance in his list of Manners & Taboos he says describing the Flemish; "They resent having been the lower classes in the past and are still rather annoyed at Brussels being a French speaking enclave in the middle of Flanders."

Of the Walloon; "Walloons resent being viewed as rather slow-witted French people and dislike the French tendency to make jokes at their expense." 

His introduction starts with the sentence "It is often said that Belgium is not a country, but a compromise." and ends with "There is no such thing as a single Belgian national cultural profile."

Seems to me he nailed it exactly for the reasons you point out.

other than this fighting myself, which seems to me your usual modus operandi when it's not halelujah Jack, no real problem, I'm at peace with myself. The observations you quote are not bang on, I'd just call them, as we say overhere (you might have an equivalent) : "he has heard the bell, but hasn't seen the clapper" ... meaning that it's more or less in good direction but nowhere really correct, again, it's generalisations and sometimes even factually incorrect (Brussels is not "in the middle of Flanders", and that's just one point, could give you more}. But again, not important. Yes, we're mongrels, but we know we are and that is a strength... don't let me start about my british ancestry :-)

 

For giggles and grins, on a different note :

O, the irony, the irony !!!

Just watched the late news on the Beeb, yes us barbarians get to see that, imagine, and as is the last couple of days, totally incomprehensible to us (in)continentals was the main news about your Royal Crisis. Good golly, Harry &Meghan want to be normal, we can't have that, now can we ????

But in that 5 or more minutes report there was an interview with one or another uni professor, and to quote her (near literal, from memory) : " this is a turnpoint for the royal family, where they will align themselves more to the european royal families"

Bloody ironical of course when Bojo and the likes want to disalign themselves from the continent, and the royals would be heading the opposite direction, rather funny, good on lizzy

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, IPLore said:

Just to illustrate why China had to make concessions in trade negotiations with the US.

During the tariff war with China;

US exports to China declined $30 bn. ( a minor 0.1% of US GDP)  BUT China exports to the US declined by $70 bn.  ( a more significant 0.5% of gdp)...

IP that differential impact certainly played a role why China had to make concessions eventually. I'm assuming they worked that out very early on as the US's methodology was transparent.

However another statistic might be more instructive as to timing as shown in graph below on the proportion of total annual shipments for each, year in year out.

Chinese exports of tariff-hit goods to the US dropped 14%  or $18 billion –  representing 3% of China’s total annual shipments to the U.S.

American exports of tariff-hit goods to China dropped 38%, or $23 billion – representing  15% of America’s annual exports to China.

So a five times differential in China's favour.

Tariffs were first applied in July 2018. By the end of 2018 US exports to China were nearly $4 billion down year on year.

Whereas Chinese exports only declined significantly in late 2018 reaching $4 billion early in 2019 before declining more than the US. This timing may be what finally got China to the negotiation table this year, noting it is expected phase 2 of the deal will not be completed prior to November's election. This leaves China still with this following leverage.

Stats aside China caving early wasn't going to get concessions out of the US.  Also the longer they dragged it out this Trade War would start to collide with the Presidential election timetable where Trump would not want it impacting domestically. For some reason you ignore that US domestic fallout and the part it played in Trump also having to concede? It wasn't all a one way street.

For instance a constituency Trump is reliant upon for re-election and a wider public reading stuff like this; 

The Crushing Truth About American Farmers Under Trump’s Trade War

 U.S. farmers see another bleak year despite Phase 1 trade deal

- Then the impact upon US manufacturing from this trade war;

U.S. manufacturing slump worsens in December as ISM index falls to 10-year low amid trade war with China

Anyway the quicker these two elephants sort out this shitfight the better it is for everyone's sake.

images (35).png

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11 minutes ago, Albatros said:

...."he has heard the bell, but hasn't seen the clapper" ... meaning that it's more or less in good direction but nowhere really correct,...

Like that one and very apt here..hadn't heard it. Yes don't worry agree treat only as generalisations.

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7 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

I find it nearly impossible to read british tabloid press.  Any article that includes the words 'it is said' or 'according to her pals' needs to be used as kindling.

 

Gave up reading or watching most of the UK press many years ago, it’s saves on time. 

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5 hours ago, crashdog said:

So this is how stupid it gets - bait for banking, fish for finance.  Isn't assymmetrical (sic) warfare fun?  

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/13/city-access-eu-markets-eu-fleets-uk-fishing-rights-brexit

 

 

This is the Brexit take back control dream in just phase 1 delivery stage. 
 

This is what Wayne and the faithful voted for. 

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6 hours ago, crashdog said:

So this is how stupid it gets - bait for banking, fish for finance.  Isn't assymmetrical (sic) warfare fun?  

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/13/city-access-eu-markets-eu-fleets-uk-fishing-rights-brexit

 

43 minutes ago, mad said:

This is the Brexit take back control dream in just phase 1 delivery stage. 
 

This is what Wayne and the faithful voted for. 

Those that still remember the content of Johnson/Gove's Leave Brochure and if not at least Johnson banging on about it in election campaign.

The prick made no mention of the UK’s financial services sector losing its automatic right to serve Europe-based clients and that it is worth a squillion. Yet he banged on about the UK getting its fishing waters back waving around that kipper.

Now the bastard says fishing is only drop in the ocean, we import most of our fish and majority of what ever is caught in our waters by no matter who, we process and export anyway.

So we trade one for the other which means no change. Why are we Brexiting again?? 

 

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Quite remarkable. Johnson at Stormont 

Rowing back furiously on his "no checks" for east-west/GB - NI goods movement. It is now PROVIDING we get a EU/UK trade deal that replicates what we have now.

N.B. No mention of impossibility of getting special Irish border arrangements in place by December.

 

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There is a possible back story here with Steve Baker chair of the ERG.

He is backing some Ministers like Raab and Truss who believe the UK should be negotiating a trade deal with US in parallel with one with EU. So far Johnson has rejected that.

There is talk of this US deal only being a "bare bones" one to get it finalised before the EU one. The reasoning supposedly coming from Baker and Co is crazy but not a surprise.

That is the US deal becomes a "ratchet" to stop the UK agreeing too much with the EU. Or in other words you’re scared the UK’s trading relationship with the EU will end up differing little from today or maybe worse, tie up quickly with the US to make it impossible to say yes to that.

The body language supports that theory. Also Lewis's writings support it by infering the English are not splendid at negotiation.

If a load of crap then some value in Anneliese Dodd's reminding everyone that in US/EU FTA negotiations the UK backed the US not the EU over agri foods/animal welfare standards etc.

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11 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

BC is nice and quiet, and Canadia's press is much more regulated than 'merka's

Nah, we're just nicer. I'd say we don't have the tradition of the Brit tabloids, nor the first amendment rights of the US. But libel suits against newspapers ARE rare. We do have human rights law so you can't "willfully promote hatred against any identifiable group" but cases are rare too.

The local Victoria paper, where they stayed over Christmas, knew they were in town but didn't report it.

Vancouverites are so used to celebrities due to so much movie filming that we politely ignore them on the street and in restaurants. It is considered rude to bug them for selfies etc.

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A deluge of commentary about to hit. IP I get the impression US media very supportive so a good news day for Trump?

U.S. Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer says the language translation of the U.S.-China trade agreement was almost completed and would be made public on Wednesday, just prior to a signing ceremony.

And something that might make the UK nervous....they are no longer in the loop. Welcome to the real world of trading elephants.

Top trade officials from the United States, Japan and the European Union in book end meetings around China/US trade deal

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And if you can be bothered about Labour leader nomination that is closed/nearly closed?

Least four made cut with Left/Center Starmer leading Left Long Baily around 3:1 nominations. The various factions knifing each other as Labour do so well.

IMG_20200114_163017.jpg

IMG_20200114_163033.jpg

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Leaks in US/China Phase 1 already started. Showing how some prior speculation was off the mark.

For instance $40/50 billion pa agriculture originally touted by Trump and others is actually only $16 billion pa. Only when combined with the $24 billion U.S. agricultural export baseline of 2017, the total gets close to $40 billion. Agriculture sector won't be too happy and justifies their previous scepticism.

Devil is always in the detail.

China to ramp up U.S. car, aircraft, energy purchases in trade deal: source

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11 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

Just to throw a bit of grist to the mill

Note the comments

This is an utterly naive and idiotic assertion, the power of social media is far, far greater. Otherwise why would so much money be spent on it?

That’s just deflecting. 

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7 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

Those that still remember the content of Johnson/Gove's Leave Brochure and if not at least Johnson banging on about it in election campaign.

The prick made no mention of the UK’s financial services sector losing its automatic right to serve Europe-based clients and that it is worth a squillion. Yet he banged on about the UK getting its fishing waters back waving around that kipper.

Now the bastard says fishing is only drop in the ocean, we import most of our fish and majority of what ever is caught in our waters by no matter who, we process and export anyway.

So we trade one for the other which means no change. Why are we Brexiting again?? 

 

Ask Wayne.

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Not many so talented at not answering ANY question. Belongs in politics and the UK deserves someone so deluded.

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First big interview since election....well guess what????

Domestic stuff from 10.30.

EU Trade Deal - "Epicaley Likley" by December unless EU don't show common sense.

Balance - Despite pointed questions on delivery plans, when people can expect to see NHS turnarounds, infrastructure etc, the same old 20K policeman, 40 hospitals, 50k nurses etc made up election stuff. Sorry one exception police can have tazers?? Don't they have them now??

As feared this administration is rabbitt in headlights stuff.

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13 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

First big interview since election....well guess what????

Domestic stuff from 10.30.

EU Trade Deal - "Epicaley Likley" by December unless EU don't show common sense.

Balance - Despite pointed questions on delivery plans, when people can expect to see NHS turnarounds, infrastructure etc, the same old 20K policeman, 40 hospitals, 50k nurses etc made up election stuff. Sorry one exception police can have tazers?? Don't they have them now??

As feared this administration is rabbitt in headlights stuff.

Image result for roadkill rabbit"

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56 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

He is not as famous as Bruce yet to have his own "Ask Wayne Anything" thread.

 

43 minutes ago, cms said:

Not many so talented at not answering ANY question. Belongs in politics and the UK deserves someone so deluded.

Kind of interesting to have this 'reputation'. What I've been doing is refuting the more obvious fallacious claims regarding climate change, then quoting peer reviewed papers that contradict those fallacious claims. I stepped this up for 24 hours a couple of days ago. I did this for two reasons:

  • I am passionately against the spreading of misinformation about climate change (and misinformation generally).
  • to see how those who have been spreading misinformation would react (I'm studying this area for a project).

The source of this co-called reputation are those who were trolling, and one of the reactions was LB 15 setting up the 'ask Bruce anything' thread.

Interestingly, Jack has chosen to partake in the 'ask Bruce anything' thread, and raise it as a topic here, hence this response.

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Just now, jack_sparrow said:

He is not as famous as Bruce yet to have his own "Ask Wayne Anything" thread.

Now that you mention it, my dear Jack, that thread is quite honestly a pretty disgraceful exhibit of a lynch mob attacking one person. Or rather more plain and simple schoolyard bullying.

I have no problem with an occasional attack on an individual, and you falling out with Bruce in this thread is, well, who cares.

Myself and many more here appreciate your extensive and well researched contributions, and also your ocean racing expertise for that matter, but I for one am saddened to see you actively joined that childish bully thread. I have had most small minded bigots in the Bruce thread already on ignore from that other totally disgraceful thread. Please think about it, and thank you for your consideration!

 

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44 minutes ago, Fiji Bitter said:

Please think about it, and thank you for your consideration!

Actually already left it. Keeping eyes on Johnson takes enough time.

Like Prime Ministerial mundane statements are now carefully crafted advertorials worthy of BAFTA nomination.

 

 

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52 minutes ago, Fiji Bitter said:

Now that you mention it, my dear Jack, that thread is quite honestly a pretty disgraceful exhibit of a lynch mob attacking one person. Or rather more plain and simple schoolyard bullying.

I have no problem with an occasional attack on an individual, and you falling out with Bruce in this thread is, well, who cares.

Myself and many more here appreciate your extensive and well researched contributions, and also your ocean racing expertise for that matter, but I for one am saddened to see you actively joined that childish bully thread. I have had most small minded bigots in the Bruce thread already on ignore from that other totally disgraceful thread. Please think about it, and thank you for your consideration!

 

Everyone has a different frustration tolerance level... But I think all Anarchists agree with the heart of your point.

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Just now, jack_sparrow said:

Actually already left it. Keeping eyes on Johnson takes enough time.

Like Prime Ministerial mundane statements are now carefully crafted advertorials worthy of BAFTA nomination.

Good on you, and keep up the good work and fun here. It's really appreciated!

 

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1 hour ago, Fiji Bitter said:

Now that you mention it, my dear Jack, that thread is quite honestly a pretty disgraceful exhibit of a lynch mob attacking one person. Or rather more plain and simple schoolyard bullying.

I have no problem with an occasional attack on an individual, and you falling out with Bruce in this thread is, well, who cares.

Myself and many more here appreciate your extensive and well researched contributions, and also your ocean racing expertise for that matter, but I for one am saddened to see you actively joined that childish bully thread. I have had most small minded bigots in the Bruce thread already on ignore from that other totally disgraceful thread. Please think about it, and thank you for your consideration!

 

Glad I just scroll past that particular thread.

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Not exactly about how to negotiate, but Boris and his chums need help, so this just might be useful?

 

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That is pretty funny. No-one has told Boris the UK is currently party to around 80 Free Trade Agreements and at end of the December will be lucky to have one. 

Also wrong. The East India Company was an anti-free trade organisation from start to (almost) finish. It grew by opposing and denying free trade. 

 

 

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The online Kool Aid has started flowing.

So the UK honestly thinks it can have the EU27 and around 100 other countries walk away from EU standardization just  because the UK no longer likes it and wants to do it's own thing.

These pricks are fucking insane.

 

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I'm still somewhat mystified about the loose use of the word 'friends' all the time.  This has been thrown all over the press for the last 3 years by UK politicians of various elk. Especially when Bozo, Raab & sleezball Gove use it it sounds quite creepy.

I'm pretty certain that Verhofstadt, Barnier, Tusk, Vanderleyden,  and their respective teams do not refer to them in the same affective terms.

friend

/frɛnd/

noun

noun: friend; plural noun: friends; noun: Friend; plural noun: Friends

1. a person with whom one has a bond of mutual affection, typically one exclusive of sexual or family relations.

 

I'm sure when it all goes tits up after 01.01.2021 there will be plenty of 'friends' knocking on the door asking if they want to do some business :lol:

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Which reminds me of the below tale :

A little bird was flying south for the winter. It was so cold, the bird froze and fell to the ground into a large field. While she was lying there, a cow came by and dropped some dung on her. As the frozen bird lay there in the pile of cow dung, she began to realize how warm she was getting, as the dung was actually thawing her out. She lay there all warm and happy, and soon began to sing for joy. A passing cat heard the bird singing and came to investigate. Following the sound, the cat discovered the bird under the pile of cow dung, promptly dug her out and ate her.

Moral of the story

  1. Not everyone who shits on you is your enemy.

  2. Not everyone who gets you out of shit is your friend.

  3. And when you’re in deep shit, it’s best to keep your mouth shut.

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Bozz is going to protect the interests of Brexit voters by expanding global free trade? Did I get that right?

What does he mean by that? Free movement of capital? Free movement of labour?

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Dr, Fox is correct about the differences between harmonisation and improvisation as being the fundamentals between EU and Brexit Britain (BB).  The problem is that I cannot really find any political theory that says that the power of a slippery 1 is a more effective method of managing conflict and difference in social structures than the power of groups/parties.  While being flexible can work in one-off situations, it rarely is effective in broader conflicts.  And a flexible 1 needs to be substantially gifted to advance in the context powerful groups of adversaries.  

The line between flexible and rudderless can sometimes be hard to see from the outside, and rational actors don't really want to play at poker when the lives of millions is at stake.  Although the British have had a solid history of doing such. 

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Pretty ironic and funny.

Meeting to talk about strengthening WTO Rules on national subsidies when both EU (Airbus) and US (Boeing) have unresolved subsidy cases the subject of WTO rulings. Then completing the trio the Japanese have I think invoked more cases than any other country over subsidy schemes. The last I think against Sth Korea over shipbuilding.

 

 

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 And if any confusion who is in charge of the next phase of Brexit talks? EU will be run from the Cabinet Office, reporting directly to Johnson. 

 

EOQO0HEWAAEC7ww.png

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46 minutes ago, Laser1 said:

Which reminds me of the below tale :

A little bird was flying south for the winter. It was so cold, the bird froze and fell to the ground into a large field. While she was lying there, a cow came by and dropped some dung on her. As the frozen bird lay there in the pile of cow dung, she began to realize how warm she was getting, as the dung was actually thawing her out. She lay there all warm and happy, and soon began to sing for joy. A passing cat heard the bird singing and came to investigate. Following the sound, the cat discovered the bird under the pile of cow dung, promptly dug her out and ate her.

Moral of the story

  1. Not everyone who shits on you is your enemy.
  2. Not everyone who gets you out of shit is your friend.
  3. And when you’re in deep shit, it’s best to keep your mouth shut.

Agreed, and timely. Reminds me of this one:

A turkey was chatting with a bull. "I would love to be able to get to the top of that tree," sighed the turkey, "but I haven't got the energy." "Well, why don't you nibble on some of my droppings?" replied the bull. "They're packed with nutrients." The turkey pecked at a lump of dung, found it actually gave him enough strength to reach the lowest branch of the tree. The next day, after eating some more dung, he reached the second branch. Finally after a fourth night, he was proudly perched at the top of the tree. Soon he was promptly spotted by a farmer, who shot the turkey out of the tree.

Moral of the story
Bull Shit might get you to the top, but it won't keep you there.

---

In my view these stories apply to both SA threads and Brexit dealings - which at some levels have a surprising amount in common.

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This nasty, fanatical and batshit crazy racist piece of work yelling her head off as if addressing a rally in 30's Nuremberg saying that EU citizens should have to 'apply' and prove their status, rather than merely register. 

The Dutch politician knows more about the election outcome than her

 

 

EOQLCMIW4AA9Dbs.jpeg

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47 minutes ago, crashdog said:

Dr, Fox is correct about the differences between harmonisation and improvisation as being the fundamentals between EU and Brexit Britain (BB).  The problem is that I cannot really find any political theory that says that the power of a slippery 1 is a more effective method of managing conflict and difference in social structures than the power of groups/parties.  While being flexible can work in one-off situations, it rarely is effective in broader conflicts.  And a flexible 1 needs to be substantially gifted to advance in the context powerful groups of adversaries.  

The line between flexible and rudderless can sometimes be hard to see from the outside, and rational actors don't really want to play at poker when the lives of millions is at stake.  Although the British have had a solid history of doing such. 

As a kid, one of the training exercises was to sail without a rudder.

It is possible, but extremely hard and definitely not as good as sailing with a rudder.

The similarities with a 'no deal' Brexit are as subtle as being hit on the head by a boom on a windy day.

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Quote

Boris Johnson's Big Ben Brexit bong plan falls flat

No plan for a public fund to sound bells on UK’s exit from EU, despite PM’s assertions

An energetic if perhaps niche campaign to ensure the chimes of Big Ben sound at the moment of Brexit on 31 January appears doomed after Commons authorities played down the idea, while a funding plan promised by Boris Johnson to pay for it turned out to not exist.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnsons-big-ben-brexit-bong-plan-falls-flat

Quote

Lindsay Hoyle, the new Commons Speaker, who chairs the commission, said the overall cost would mean “you are talking about £50,000 a bong”.

He said: “We also have to bear in mind that the only people who will hear it will be those who live near or are visiting Westminster.”

It later emerged that Johnson’s “plan” for a public fund to finance the work does not exist.

Asked about the idea, the PM’s spokesman said: “If the public want Big Ben to bong, and the money is raised then that is great. We will make sure that whatever happens in regard to Big Ben’s bongs, 31 January is properly marked. It is a significant moment in our history.”

Pressed on whether an official plan actually existed, he said: “There isn’t a specific government fund.”

For fucks sake!!  Haven't they got better things to do with their time??  

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1 minute ago, mad said:

For fucks sake!!  Haven't they got better things to do with their time??  

'Big-bong-gate' has a certain ring to it.

---

With regards to there being better things to do, there are HUGE parallels between Brexit and this forum.

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25 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

This nasty, fanatical and batshit crazy racist piece of work yelling her head off as if addressing a rally in 30's Nuremberg saying that EU citizens should have to 'apply' and prove their status, rather than merely register. 

UK MEP gone form EU parliament this Thursday. Hoorah, let the Big Ben sound for that.
And WAB FOM paperwork is just for old cases of people already in the UK because of EU partnership. Ending FOM is only end Jan, but you can work via less till end this year.
A bit leniency would have helped. UK citizens in the EU will notice in a year or so this will count for them too. Lots of older people with no work income but pensionada in Spain will notice it first. Not much money, no Spanish skills, worthless for Spain's society. Bloody UK immigrants.
Nobody knows yet what the paperwork will be in the future if you want to work in the UK from the EU.

But grandma is right, the moment TBP was the biggest in the EU election it showed the weakness of remain campaign and their voters.

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Till march there will not be much news about BJ's oven ready deal is the expectation from the EU. I can not wait.

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3 hours ago, cms said:

Not exactly about how to negotiate, but Boris and his chums need help, so this just might be useful?

 

When Barnier does the "Let's get out of here" sign, the UK negotiators need to be worried!

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8 minutes ago, Panoramix said:

When Barnier does the "Let's get out of here" sign, the UK negotiators need to be worried!

Depending on what part of France you are from, you may switch which hand moves and which stays static in that gesture. Spend a fair part of my life studying NVGs (non verbal gestures). Useful in the land of the rising sun!

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24 minutes ago, Panoramix said:

When Barnier does the "Let's get out of here" sign, the UK negotiators need to be worried!

Closely followed by le bras d'honneur :lol: :

 

2919818-gerard-depardieu-fait-un-bras-d-honneur-950x0-2.jpg

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3 hours ago, cms said:

Depending on what part of France you are from, you may switch which hand moves and which stays static in that gesture. Spend a fair part of my life studying NVGs (non verbal gestures). Useful in the land of the rising sun!

You are teaching me something. I have the right hand static in this situation.

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6 hours ago, mad said:

Asked about the idea, the PM’s spokesman said: “If the public want Big Ben to bong, and the money is raised then that is great. We will make sure that whatever happens in regard to Big Ben’s bongs, 31 January is properly marked. It is a significant moment in our history.”

So does this mean all those nurses, hospitals and police etc are also going to be crowd-funded?

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