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Brexit WTF, WTF

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20 minutes ago, mad said:

Who blocked it Wayne? Be specific for a change.

House of Commons Commission

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Fact or fiction

The whole scene was ridiculous – and yet, at the same time, beautifully symbolic. Any dramatist would have been proud to come up with it. A group of Brexiteers, campaigning furiously for the right to fly a six-inch-high flag from their desks inside a building they were already leaving; and EU bureaucrats, refusing to budge an inch from a completely pointless rule they’d set. 

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15 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

House of Commons Commission

and nothing to do with the huge restoration work already underway?

Quote

Elizabeth Tower and Big Ben conservation works 2017 to 2021

https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/building/palace/big-ben/elizabeth-tower-and-big-ben-conservation-works-2017-/

 

Really need to stop blaming everything on remainers Wayne, its out of our hands now and firmly in yours.

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11 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

Fact or fiction

The whole scene was ridiculous – and yet, at the same time, beautifully symbolic. Any dramatist would have been proud to come up with it. A group of Brexiteers, campaigning furiously for the right to fly a six-inch-high flag from their desks inside a building they were already leaving; and EU bureaucrats, refusing to budge an inch from a completely pointless rule they’d set. 

Fucking childish is what that's called.

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10 minutes ago, mad said:

So two weeks earlier at no cost to the public, what went Bing Bong 12 times.

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21 minutes ago, mad said:

and nothing to do with the huge restoration work already underway?

And add that even Johnson had half a brain to understand celebrating something that less than half the electorate voted for last month wasn't a good look.

EOQLCMIW4AA9Dbs.jpeg.54dffc5575c0e8419d308b07341f2787.jpeg

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14 minutes ago, mad said:

Really need to stop blaming everything on remainers Wayne, its out of our hands now and firmly in yours.

So stop barracking from the sidelines and let those now in charge get on with it.

You guys are acting like the spurned partner in a divorce that's just found out that their partner is gay ( and hadn't wondered why the sex stopped 10 years before ) or as happened to an acquaintance of mine back in the 80's, found the house and garage he thought he owned, was now hocked up to the eye balls and his wife was seriously rich living in Portugal with the new boyfriend.

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3 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

And add that even Johnson had half a brain to understand celebrating something that less than half the electorate voted for last month wasn't a good look.

EOQLCMIW4AA9Dbs.jpeg.54dffc5575c0e8419d308b07341f2787.jpeg

So you are saying every Labour party member would have voted to Remain ? Only half a brain would assume that.

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1 minute ago, Waynemarlow said:

So stop barracking from the sidelines and let those now in charge get on with it.

You guys are acting like the spurned partner in a divorce that's just found out that their partner is gay ( and hadn't wondered why the sex stopped 10 years before ) or as happened to an acquaintance of mine back in the 80's, found the house and garage he thought he owned, was now hocked up to the eye balls and his wife was seriously rich living in Portugal with the new boyfriend.

Oh the irony from the guy blaming everything on remainers still. :lol:

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1 minute ago, Waynemarlow said:

So you are saying every Labour party member would have voted to Remain ?

Are you saying every Conservative voted for Brexit? 

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Just now, mad said:

Are you saying every Conservative voted for Brexit? 

Nope and I certainly would not have used that chart as its seriously flawed on so many levels, a bit like so much of Jacks stuff of late.

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2 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

Who else has caused the problems over the last 3 years, there is more than an element of truth in there.

1014246724_Brokenrecord.jpg.6e58fb27a67d5c5496084f6e89d92006.jpg

You have to try harder.

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Off course you would invest in Fintech in a country were people are it risk of having to borrow a lot.

Nice easy loan companies expecting a lot of clients and without checks. It is the same as saying a country is doing well if there are a lot of gambling companies.

At the moment the UK is the winner in polishing turds.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/jan/15/sharp-rise-in-uk-consumer-debt-among-less-well-off-thinktank-warns

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Problem for Brexiteers will be defining what and when and how it proves itself, as the missed sovereignty and take back control are all fictive.
A revolution has a defined moment, chopping of a head of a king or so, Brexit will never be tangible by one event. Hence the whining over a bong. It is all they have to show as prove they have left. And the take down off European flags, and that is all the general public will notice this year as a moment to feel proud. The rest is all slow evolving economics, trade and other difficult stuff without a defining moment.

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49 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Brexit will never be tangible by one event. ...........a defining moment.

To the blue collar workers, or white collar for that matter,  that will lose their jobs because of .......... depending on negotiations and more businesses pulling the plug .......... I guess it will be pretty 'defining' once the P45 drops on the doormat. 

A very negative view, I do admit, but this whole shitshow has been propped up by hiring more labour in stead of long term investment and once the stockpiles in the warehouses have been used up the sunlit uplands may not be so sunlit.

I believe this nation can become the greatest on earth. Our future is not written until we, the people, write it. As your prime minister my ambition will be to guide our country to the sunlit uplands – a future for our children and grandchildren of aspiration, tolerance and hope. Andrea Leadsom 4th July 2016

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Job loss will be compensated by job growth in civil service, or by polished as a turd and nothing to do with Brexit.
Bigger problem will be if goods gets more expensive, to many on low incomes (not jobless) are at risk to become working poor.

EOgXWCQXkAM7oL5.jpg:large

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4 hours ago, Laser1 said:

To the blue collar workers, or white collar for that matter,  that will lose their jobs because of .......... depending on negotiations and more businesses pulling the plug .......... I guess it will be pretty 'defining' once the P45 drops on the doormat. 

A very negative view, I do admit, but this whole shitshow has been propped up by hiring more labour in stead of long term investment and once the stockpiles in the warehouses have been used up the sunlit uplands may not be so sunlit.

I believe this nation can become the greatest on earth. Our future is not written until we, the people, write it. As your prime minister my ambition will be to guide our country to the sunlit uplands – a future for our children and grandchildren of aspiration, tolerance and hope. Andrea Leadsom 4th July 2016

Sounds a bit like a translation of an old german speech from the 1930s to me.... 

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Now Wayne you keep moaning and groaning that good UK news seldom makes it to this thread. Did it occur to you that is because there isn't much or any good news?

Anyway you come in making a hullabaloo like this about start ups quoting an article.

12 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

Notice none of you doom mongers ( man your breakfast tables must a joyous place to be ) reported on the Tech companies getting record investment in the UK

Investment into the UK’s burgeoning scene of tech startups grew more than anywhere else in the world last year, leaving previous records in the dust as investors sought private markets.

Venture capital funding for UK tech firms reached £10.1bn in 2019, rising 44 per cent year on year and breaking the all-time high set two years earlier.

It surpassed growth in all other countries, including in the US and China, where investment fell 20 per cent and 65 per cent respectively.

Data from Tech Nation and Dealroom today revealed the UK garnered a third of Europe’s £30.4bn total. It received more funding than Germany and France combined, which came in second and third place at £5.4bn and £3.4bn.

https://www.cityam.com/british-tech-startups-top-global-growth-for-venture-capital-investment/

You then double down after getting some very strong hints that article is not all what it appears.

12 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

Anyway being the highest Tech growth in the world is that not good news, take off the glum glasses, put Jack on hold, get yourself off the computer and you may just find the country is ticking along nicely. 

Wayne you are constantly shown graphs but you just ignore anything that disagrees with your narrative or any question for that matter.

Here is a hint before you cite. Read carefully what is being written and click on the source of any data written about like here the respected ones that were cited in the article you regurgitated.

Dealroom.co and Tech Nation

If you had done that you would have found that this claim to be very misleading and or factually wrong. "Investment into the UK’s burgeoning scene of tech  startups grew more than anywhere else in the world last year...It surpassed growth in all other countries, including in the US and China, where investment fell 20 per cent and 65 per cent respectively.

- So in percentage terms UK growth the largest at 44%. Well actually it isn't. For instance India experienced double that or a 95% hike on the previous year.

- In quantum it states UK tech firms reached £10.1bn or $13.2 bn in 2019 with the inference this was a world headline investment number. That £10.1bn/$13.2bn is less than countries like Israel (the subject of the graph you scorned) and against China and US where investment fell in the middle of a trade war throwing investment into a spin? Well US ($116 bn) and China ($33.5 bn) invested tells a different story doesn't it.

These are numbers from the very same "background" source you quoted.

So where crash asks the question, "is Marlow VC, PE or Pub guy??"

10 hours ago, crashdog said:

 Venture investment needs to be looked  at in conjunction with broader flows of investment and against whole economy numbers........   

...I wonder if Marlow is a venture guy, a PE guy, or just a pub guy?

Well I'm going Marlow the Pub Guy.

 

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7 hours ago, LeoV said:

A revolution has a defined moment, chopping of a head of a king or so, Brexit will never be tangible by one event....

One event??...I'm still punting on the cliff jumping thing that lemmings do.

Like when the nation wakes up in the morning and half of them realise the plate they broke when drunk is hard to fix.

EKozD59UUAAmAZi.thumb.jpeg.2bac9e01f4eaaf8233cfe363ed14b658.jpeg

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2 hours ago, jgh66 said:

Sounds a bit like a translation of an old german speech from the 1930s to me.... 

With the "sunlit uplands" bit stolen from Churchill's "This was their finest hour" speech in HOC. 

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On 1/16/2020 at 10:49 AM, Bruce Hudson said:

Agreed. Any agreement reached is likely to lack depth.

On 1/16/2020 at 9:27 AM, IPLore said:

If Bruce agreed with me then ,yes, I would be seriously worried but since he disagrees with me, then I remain confident of my prediction.

 

 

Oh Shit

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1 hour ago, IPLore said:

Oh Shit

IP you can rest easy...it was an aberration caused by his calculator hypnotising him and putting him into some sort of agreement trance.

maxresdefault (2).jpg

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13 hours ago, mad said:

https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/building/palace/big-ben/elizabeth-tower-and-big-ben-conservation-works-2017-/

 

Really need to stop blaming everything on remainers Wayne, its out of our hands now and firmly in yours.

It would seem the House of Commons Commission, which is responsible for maintenance in Parliament, estimates the cost of sounding Big Ben on Brexit day is between £320,000 and £500,000.

That estimate is made up of two separate costs:

Bringing back the bonging mechanism and installing a temporary floor - £120,000. Work on the tempoary floor is likely to be significant, involving resurfacing and waterproofing to prevent damage to recent conservation works.

The cost of delaying the conservation work - up to £400,000 (based on an estimate of £100,000 a week)

Brexiteers are citing it ringing on New Year's as to this cost being bullshit.

When the restoration work started in 2017, it was agreed that Big Ben should sound for Remembrance Sunday, Armistice Day and New Year's Eve. This allowed the project team to plan its works around the dates well in advance and ensure a limited extra over cost was incured.

The above information and cost of striking Big Ben on each of those days was £14,200 each, accords with this recent Parliamentary Question on 13 January 2020.

Hence a House of Commons Commission cost impact assessment or cheque book decision that has fuck all to do with Remainer's.

After 31 January when A.50 can't be rescinded the words Remainer disappear from the dictionary leaving Brexiteers as the only ones left standing, in charge and with full carriage to do what ever they are going to do to improve the country's "standing." What that "standing" actually is still remains (pun intended) a complete fucking mystery.

PS. It seems Boris has found a solution. PM plans to project a "giant clock face" onto Downing Street on evening of 31 January. Now it would be quite funny if a communication hitch had them projecting a "giant cock face" instead.

One can only hope.

images - 2020-01-18T162137.195.jpeg

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Excellent tutorial on how government should interact with its manufacturers.

We don't want you to manufacture stuff that is EU compliant as you do now, so it will be illegal for you to sell it within the UK if you do.

Wouldn't it be easier and quicker just to give them a free one way ticket out of the UK?

UK Chancellor Sajid Javid warns manufacturing leaders that there will be no alignment with EU regulations

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18 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

We'll be able to look back in about 10 years time and make a judgement on whether that 2B was or wasn't delivered, until then you guys are just firing blanks at something in the future over which you are hypothesising about whether it will or won't succeed, from, in your case a very negative position and without any actual data of what has definitively happened.

There should be soon a plan for that though? Something like a budget or policy.

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8 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Well I'm going Marlow the Pub Guy.

Correct, I do like a pint or two, but it means I get my head outside of the internet only world of fancy graphs and statistics that can be arranged to support any narrative, as ably demonstrated by Jack.

From going to the pub, you get a far more all round education of what’s actually going on and how real people are going to react to changing circumstances, couple that to bit of reading of the good old media, bit of research where necessary, bit of an alternative view such as this thread, throw it all into the great big cauldron, give it a stir and you come up with the track record I have,  of getting most things correctly predicted on where it’s going.

Sadly so many on this thread seem to lack that all round education of real life outside of the political and media bubble, or having wealth way beyond the average, that using Jack as an example, they become totally and utterly addicted to the world of the Guardian newspaper and Twitter or their wealthy social circles, that they think this is the norm and how all in the UK will react.

So using a bit of a poll of pub and sporting mates, who largely were against Brexit, they almost all bar one, are now fully behind Brexit, to such an extent, that my guess is that a “No Deal” would in a way be welcomed, as all agree it would bypass the incompetent top layer of U.K. civil servants and politicians, who to this point have seemed largely incompetent and out of their depth of business nous and would mean a total reboot of the interaction between the U.K. and EU allowing a true renegotiation in the shortest time.

If we continue in the way you guys all subscribe, that of 10 years of negotiated deals and a huge tooing and frooing, the only winners will be those at the top and the real losers will be the other 99% of both the EU and U.K. populice.

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19 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

Jacks really been down on his number of posts per day of late, here's one to get his numbers back up

 

Are we supposed to know who this guy is??? Does he have any relevance, or is he just somebody you found on an Internet search.

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Interesting, why say this now ?
EU will not be impressed, they hear this for years now. Does not work as grandstanding for coming talks (Feb 25th earliest).
UK business will be upset, Brexit is done but uncertainty stays. Publish your plan before the 25th in openness with and they know how to prepare.
All the lies from the past years will not convince them that this talk is the truth. This plan of no alignment and higher taxes will further scare investment away.

So it can only be a message to the idealogical euro haters in the Tory party. There is no election, no talks, so other then that there was no reason to say it.
Grandstanding for UK causes.

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17 hours ago, LeoV said:

Problem for Brexiteers will be defining what and when and how it proves itself, as the missed sovereignty and take back control are all fictive.
A revolution has a defined moment, chopping of a head of a king or so, Brexit will never be tangible by one event. Hence the whining over a bong. It is all they have to show as prove they have left. And the take down off European flags, and that is all the general public will notice this year as a moment to feel proud. The rest is all slow evolving economics, trade and other difficult stuff without a defining moment.

Like gently boiling a frog.

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Oh that guy with ten reasons..
First one I researched;

Decentralisation;
On an international scale, the most common indicator used to measure and compare the extent of fiscal decentralization is the percentage of spending by the subordinate regions versus total public spending. The latest figures from the OECD show that in 2012 the most decentralized country was Denmark, where local spending accounted for 62% of public spending, while the central Danish government only spent 38%. This was followed by Switzerland, with local spending at 58%; Sweden, with 49%; the United States with 47%; and Spain with 40%. Now, one thing is the spending managed by the subordinate governments, and the other is the ability to decide about spending policies. Obviously, this is a question that is very difficult to measure quantitatively, but qualitatively it is possible to show that there are great differences. In the decentralized European countries when a power is devolved, the ability to decide over that power is also transferred, and not only the obligation to handle spending and payments. If this were so, it would be an administrative, but not political, decentralization, and what really matters is precisely the political decentralization, which can be understood as the ability to decide.

---------------------
So it is bullshit of the highest order, EU can provide for decentralisation even better. An umbrella of EU minimal rules and SM gives local areas more power.
As I live on a border, this I see personally. Europa EU will be about regions working together more then countries. Borders are gone. Rules are standard.
Rotterdam to Antwerp is becoming one economical zone. Pipelines laid cross border, transporting goods, expats it all flows much easier then before.
The ultimate decentralisation. I bought a house just after the lowest house prices due to crises, in a small town located near a new highway connecting both.
It is doubled in worth in 4 years. I am a lucky bastard.

Really if your first reason is already totally bullshit, I do not need to watch the rest. Note he did not give an example of a country were they were better of.
Brexit is a old farts religion not based on facts.

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16 minutes ago, mad said:

Like gently boiling a frog. 

Exactly, in truth the frog will leave. UK will have a brain drain to prove that.

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Excellent tutorial on how government should interact with its manufacturers.

We don't want you to manufacture stuff that is EU compliant as you do now, so it will be illegal for you to sell it within the UK if you do.

Wouldn't it be easier and quicker just to give them a free one way ticket out of the UK?

UK Chancellor Sajid Javid warns manufacturing leaders that there will be no alignment with EU regulations

The smart ones will just stick with EU compliance’s and ignore that directive, why change what your setup to do and shoot yourself in the foot by making something you can’t export. 

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59 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

Correct, I do like a pint or two, but it means I get my head outside of the internet only world of fancy graphs and statistics that can be arranged to support any narrative, as ably demonstrated by Jack.

From going to the pub, you get a far more all round education of what’s actually going on and how real people are going to react to changing circumstances, couple that to bit of reading of the good old media, bit of research where necessary, bit of an alternative view such as this thread, throw it all into the great big cauldron, give it a stir and you come up with the track record I have,  of getting most things correctly predicted on where it’s going.

Sadly so many on this thread seem to lack that all round education of real life outside of the political and media bubble, or having wealth way beyond the average, that using Jack as an example, they become totally and utterly addicted to the world of the Guardian newspaper and Twitter or their wealthy social circles, that they think this is the norm and how all in the UK will react.

So using a bit of a poll of pub and sporting mates, who largely were against Brexit, they almost all bar one, are now fully behind Brexit, to such an extent, that my guess is that a “No Deal” would in a way be welcomed, as all agree it would bypass the incompetent top layer of U.K. civil servants and politicians, who to this point have seemed largely incompetent and out of their depth of business nous and would mean a total reboot of the interaction between the U.K. and EU allowing a true renegotiation in the shortest time.

If we continue in the way you guys all subscribe, that of 10 years of negotiated deals and a huge tooing and frooing, the only winners will be those at the top and the real losers will be the other 99% of both the EU and U.K. populice.

Bullshit!!  And fucking hilarious   :lol:

Where is this pub? The drinks must be over proof and free. 

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reason 2; juggling with statistics, Poland did grow faster.
3; ultimate local rules will diverse and so will disturb exports you brain dead zombie. And Eu did cut regulation in the past years.
4; damn not that Southern Europa is a disaster, UK will be joining their ranks soon, good luck. It is a problem, not a disaster. And Italians are richer then UK citizens.
BJ will inflict even more hardship to UK citizens then the Greek did if he is serious about non alignment, good luck.
5; immigration, duh, UK needs immigration.
6; totally warped, UK is 3% of world GDP and able do do a lot of international trade. It will not get better. Only worse.
7; yes world outside EU gets richer so more trade, but less in % of world gdp. Duh, back to school and listen to your teacher this time.
8; democratic, ask the Scots you undemocratic UK boloneys. Or House of Lords. Or no written constitution, or proroguing.
9; prove you can do better ? It has flaws, but payments CAP is changing every budget round to address problems.
10; Fish, uggh, you own 12 miles zone, outside you control it under UN rules. Migration fish has to be shared.

So conclusion, this idiot does not know how the EU or even the UK works et all.
This video is a perfect example, 10 reasons,  10 times bullshit. Worth to place in the Brexit museum for future reference.
Oh and he is pleading for an end to the UK too.

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11 minutes ago, mad said:

The smart ones will just stick with EU compliance’s and ignore that directive, why change what your setup to do and shoot yourself in the foot by making something you can’t export. 

But EU can not have the knowledge if you really did follow the compliance. So extra costs in inspections and paperwork on the border.
Even if UK says it will align, but no ECJ control, it will add costs and lower export.
So business relating on EU export is fucked unless Norway model.

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EOSfsF_UUAE6GUi.png

Some interesting data from the appendix of a paper by Novokmet, Piketty, and Zucman (2018). http://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/NPZ2017MainFiguresTables.xlsx 

Even if you take this PPP with a grain of salt, the UK was a well recorded financial entity. As was Germany and France. Russia less.

1974, UK enters EU. Really in the EU they were really poor off.
You can see German wall coming down.1990.
If the UK wants to kickstart the North in a similar way, they need to spend more, borrow and tax higher, in a no EU trade deal world market were they loose GDP and so tax income from financial services (overcooked already) and manufacturing.
 

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2 hours ago, LeoV said:

reason 2; juggling with statistics, Poland did grow faster.
3; ultimate local rules will diverse and so will disturb exports you brain dead zombie. And Eu did cut regulation in the past years.
4; damn not that Southern Europa is a disaster, UK will be joining their ranks soon, good luck. It is a problem, not a disaster. And Italians are richer then UK citizens.
BJ will inflict even more hardship to UK citizens then the Greek did if he is serious about non alignment, good luck.
5; immigration, duh, UK needs immigration.
6; totally warped, UK is 3% of world GDP and able do do a lot of international trade. It will not get better. Only worse.
7; yes world outside EU gets richer so more trade, but less in % of world gdp. Duh, back to school and listen to your teacher this time.
8; democratic, ask the Scots you undemocratic UK boloneys. Or House of Lords. Or no written constitution, or proroguing.
9; prove you can do better ? It has flaws, but payments CAP is changing every budget round to address problems.
10; Fish, uggh, you own 12 miles zone, outside you control it under UN rules. Migration fish has to be shared.

So conclusion, this idiot does not know how the EU or even the UK works et all.
This video is a perfect example, 10 reasons,  10 times bullshit. Worth to place in the Brexit museum for future reference.
Oh and he is pleading for an end to the UK too.

He’s a just a voiceover guy and a comedian apparently......and Wayne cites him as an authority :lol:

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2 hours ago, LeoV said:

2; juggling with statistics, Poland did grow faster.

EU "fringe nations" do better.  mmmm

What about "fringe nations" that join EU like Poland in 2004. Polands "trade balance" performance with UK immediately went from "deficit" to "surplus" and that "surplus" has increased every year since embarassing the bejesus out of the UK.

Then how does the UK leaving the EU to it becoming the "fringe nation" turn that "trade imbalance" around be it with Poland or a trading replacement?

Leo you did well. I could listen any further to that fellows tripe.

content_Wykres_3.jpg

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... real losers will be the other 99% of both the EU and U.K. populice

Wayne: yes you are propably right, Brexit is a lose-lose situation for both UK and EU people. Who can win anything? If I look around I can maybe only see some guys in the City of London, who are afraid of EU regulation, Trump and Putin.... 

Some more stuff for your pub buddies :

 

 

Opinion: UK on course for a hard Brexit

By Barbara Wesel | 20.12.2019
 
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Eine Karikatur mit den drei Weisen, die die Sterne der EU-Flagge beobachten

After years of political disagreement and drama, the UK Parliament has passed a sweeping EU withdrawal agreement bill. Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants to sever all ties with the bloc, writes DW's Barbara Wesel.
 

Barbara Wesel Kommentarbild App * PROVISORISCH *

This summer, the anti-Brexit movement succeeded in drawing 1 million protesters to London's streets. But today, opposition to Brexit — just like the parliamentary opposition — has all but vanished. Following Boris Johnson's huge electoral victory last week, British Parliament on Friday passed the European Union withdrawal agreement bill with a big majority. It was almost shocking to see how little impact arguments against Brexit, and for a close relationship with the EU, have had.

Großbritannien, London: Brexit Anhänger vor dem Parlament (picture-alliance / R. Pinney)

Johnson now commands a solid parliamentary majority and aims for a hard Brexit. He says Britain no longer wants to adhere to EU rules and laws, which means he is seeking a minimalist free trade agreement with the bloc. Johnson's talk of "Canada-plus" and striking a great deal with the EU is just empty rhetoric. In reality, this is simply the manifestation of the well-known right-wing Conservative project to further deregulate the UK and transform it into some kind of international buccaneer.

Read more: What happens with Brexit after Boris Johnson's victory?

Parliament no longer has a say

Tellingly, Johnson removed all concessions included in the bill that his predecessor, Theresa May, had once made. Now, Parliament no longer has a say in negotiating the trade deal with the EU. An ironic turn of events, given that Brexiteers had always argued leaving the EU was about returning power to their very own "mother of all parliaments." This was, simply put, a lie — just like almost all other arguments put forward for Brexit.

Likewise, the bill no longer pledges to align British workers' rights along EU standards, and has watered down the rights of refugee children to be reunited with their families. In sum, all concessions to make the withdrawal somehow more palatable have been scrapped. This marks a victory for those who want a hard Brexit, who want to sever all ties with the EU. They are ecstatic. And Johnson, it is now clear for all to see, is not the moderate Tory he masqueraded as during the election campaign. 

Now that the path to a hard Brexit has been paved, Johnson is trying to effectively brainwash the people: He wants to stop the term "Brexit" being used, and plans to shut down the Brexit department. Brexit has deeply divided the country and Johnson wants to bring it together again — by telling Brits to stop discussing the matter.

Typical populist behavior

Johnson's behavior so far is inspired by the right-wing populist playbook: He has peddled countless lies, deliberately misrepresented reality, persistently employed hyperbole and clouded peoples' minds through propaganda. This is behavior we have seen by many other populist regimes across the world. And, in this populist vein, Johnson now wants to axe the funding for public broadcaster BBC. Its journalists, who could have done more to scrutinize and question Brexit, are in Johnson's view too independent and lack loyalty towards the government.

The leaders of EU member states and Brussels negotiators must now be extremely careful in how they deal with London. German Chancellor Angela Merkel was right when she warned several months ago that Britain could morph from a friendly neighbor into a fierce competitor. Nobody, in short, should be lulled into thinking they can trust Johnson when he talks about "neighbours and friends" on the continent. This is merely part of his carefully cultivated facade, just like his unruly haircut.   

It is a painful but simple fact that from now, one will have to be extremely careful in dealing with the British government and prepare for all kinds of trickery. Johnson cannot be trusted, and neither can his Brexit negotiator, Michael Gove. Both will do what ever they can to take advantage of the EU. The bloc will have to treat Britain like an adversary when it negotiates its future relationship with the country, a trade deal and other things — a tragic nadir after decades of good neighborly relations. 

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1 hour ago, mad said:

6; totally warped, UK is 3% of world GDP and able do do a lot of international trade. It will not get better. Only worse.

Nos 6 is a cracker and I couldn't resist.

From text of vid Dominic Frisby

"There is no point having a common market if the economies of the countries you’re in that market with are dying." 

To support this he incorporates this graph which shows UK exports to other EU countries was 54.8% back in 1999, and yet in 2014 the percentage of UK exports to other EU countries was down to 44.6% of all UK exports. Then every year from 1999 UKs exports to other non EU countries in value terms have INCREASED.

So this graph shows the economies inside the EU are failing?? He is fucking insane.

As members of the EU, the UK in that period has enjoyed the benefit of an increasing number additional trade agreements outside the EU. So hey presto the UK has increased its exports in terms of value to nations all around the world (RoW). Also while the UK exports mostly goods to the EU nations, UK exports to RoW is mostly made up of financial services.

So as the value of exports to RoW countries are increasing faster than the rate of increase in value of our exports to the EU this means that the percentage of EU exports of the total falls. This drop has nothing to do with measure of EU economy.

This graph also doesn't show the missing part to dropping UK exports to the EU and that is rising exports from the EU to the UK where the trade balance favours the EU. If anything this graph shows the UK to be the economy in decline, not the EU and EU member assisted exports is keeping the UK afloat.

The other stupidity is this graph actually shows the truth being the UK and the EU are getting more successful in RoW trade and the UK leaving the EU will not make trade easier, but make it more difficult.

This fellow is a Brexiteer salesman who has no idea what is selling or what it is. I hope he is a better comedian.

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3 hours ago, mad said:

The smart ones will just stick with EU compliance’s and ignore that directive, why change what your setup to do and shoot yourself in the foot by making something you can’t export. 

Unfortunately without turnover of domestic sales to help underwrite the additional audit and export admin costs, many will find EU only sales not profitable.

There is a very large number of UK SME's that fit this profile that somehow got lost in data the International Trade Dept put together to show EU trade was predominantly big firms with small number of SME's. Maybe someone has forgotten this screw up?

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5 hours ago, LeoV said:

\snip

Decentralisation;

snip\ 

Leo, a more realistic comparison for the USA (and Canada / Aus, for that matter) is the EU, which is really decentralised.  A relatively small EU government apparatus and most fiscal flows occuring at the state level, with some of those states very decentralised.  All supported with a proportional representative democracy.  EU and USA are almost completely comparable, with USA 200 years older and based on an older political philosophy.

Anyway, I think your point is excellent that it is the governance mechanism that really matters.  In the UK, looking at the effects of Brexit decision making on the North and West highlights the fundamental failure to evolve the political system.  The UK is one of the most, if not the most centralised economy in the OECD (well, OK, Luxembourg, but come on...).  It is not a coincidence.

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6 hours ago, LeoV said:

...So it can only be a message to the idealogical euro haters in the Tory party. There is no election, no talks, so other then that there was no reason to say it.
Grandstanding for UK causes.

I really hope it is a suicide note.

I think it is part of an orchestrated blame narrative.  If bad stuff happens to business, it's their fault because they had 3 years to prepare.

Then after that who can they blame? Everyone else in the country?

Those fence sitting and with the means to relocate to EU, this might tip them over the edge.

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On 1/18/2020 at 5:45 AM, mad said:

Really need to stop blaming everything on remainers Wayne, its out of our hands now and firmly in yours.

Really need to stop pretending that people are absolved of responsibility because of the way they vote.

The decision has been made to leave the EU.

Seems to me that blaming people for blaming is Mad.

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

His bio with text of that vid...maybe it was a comedic piece and we haven't got the joke??

DOMINIC FRISBY Financial writer, comedian, actor of unrecognized genius and voice of many things.

Just had a great day watching local rugby, good win by the local team, a couple of quick Guiness’s with the couple of hundred supporters all in good spirits, not a murmur, not a word, not a whinge, not a Twitter, not a FB, not a WhattsApp message, Nada about Brexit. Sorry guys, the English locally have moved on.

And then I had a quick look at this thread and despite the guy singing you a song about Brexit, you have like good little squaddies, spent the whole day researching how that very same guy did a skit on his 10 reasons for leaving the EU. For ferk sakes, wake up, get your head out of your internet world and watch how the world around you is simply moving on.

 

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13 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

IP you can rest easy...it was an aberration caused by his calculator hypnotising him and putting him into some sort of agreement trance.

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I post under my real name and it is easily provable that the above image is not me.

On the other hand, can anyone prove that it is not a selfie by Jack?

(I've been pretty quiet here on  this thread - so by posting personal attacks - Jack clearly wants me to respond in kind, right Jack.)

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

I really hope it is a suicide note.

It is, it was published in the FT, by the chancellor.
not BJ in the Torygraph of who you expect lies.
I missed how important it was who and were it was published.
You can expect next message US deal is more important.

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3 hours ago, LeoV said:

It is, it was published in the FT, by the chancellor.
not BJ in the Torygraph of who you expect lies.
I missed how important it was who and were it was published.

It's quite a sucide note. One example.

Four-fifths of the cars made in the UK are exported, with half going to the EU and another quarter going to nations that have trade deals with Europe, such as South Korea.  That is achieved by "homologation" or where engineering, emissions standards, crash tests etc etc all done under one certificate.

The beneficiaries of this alignment supports jobs and competitiveness more particularly in some of the most deprived regions of the UK, the ones who just voted Tory for the first time.

So overnight car production will be slashed by 60% and up to 80% where any countries without EU FTA's won't accept new UK standards. That prospect is very high as many have standards mirroring those of the EU. The ones that don't like US, the UK's largest export market by country and vehicles by sector, the US has already said it doesn't want to increase (read reduce if you don't import more US stuff) those UK vehicles import numbers.

And all hit with similiar effect.

Aerospace
Pharma
Chemicals
Food and drink

That is around 1 million direct jobs (excluding family support numbers) and value to UK GDP around £100 billion thrown on the table in this game of poker.

Yep that is some suicide note.

3 hours ago, LeoV said:

You can expect next message US deal is more important.

Steve Baker already started last week and again in today's Torygraph on starting US Deal now blah blah. The warm up act or on his own mission to keep Boris in line?

So best wait for the release in Times and or FT and from someone with gravitas. Trump's US/China phase 1 done so his PR team are ready. My guess it will be Boris himself for this one.

PS. BTW the outcome?????...convergence and close alignment with the EU on lesser terms on account of wasting time and fucking around with juvenile negotiating shit like this.

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^^^^^ That far right German MEP and climate change denier, spoke of the EU experiencing "escape into illness" or the neurotic avoidence to escape a unsatisfactory reality by wishing to remain sick. Here by the EU committing amongst other things €1 trillion over 10 years to a EU Green Deal.

This neurotic analogy is in fact not new and where an escape remedy was prosecuted in the US to deal with the hardships created by the stock market crash in 1929 and Great Depression.

Magazines, radio and movies then were all aimed to help people mentally escape from the mass poverty and economic downturn. Life Magazine, which became hugely popular during the 1930s, comprised lots of pictures that gave no indication that there was such a thing as economic depression. Most of the images were of bathing beauties, ship launchings, building projects and sporting heroes – of almost anything but poverty and unemployment.

This wasn't just constrained to the US. Phar Lap was a champion NZ born Australian  thoroughbred racehorse whose achievements captured the Australian public's imagination during the early years of the Great Depression. Some sporting spectator attendances in this era are still records today. BTW Phar Lap died in 1932 under mysterious circumstances in the US where one theory was it was got rid of so not to upstage US race horses. Those same horses which were being featured big time in Life Magazine!!

It would appear the same "escapism" technique has just been employed in the UK. The risks and pressing issues of Brexit have been swept under the carpet by headlines about the Royal Family and Megexit. They continue and will continue unabatted even though Harry and Meghan are pissing off out of there. The same could be said of that beloved British icon Big Ben not been able to bong on demand. That is consuming the public's imagination, not the detail behind why it is being bonged.

So as for this "neurotic avoidence by the UK to escape a unsatisfactory reality" continuing, keep your eyes peeled for these signs.

- Page 3 Girls will start appearing in The Times

- The re-opening of a plant in Bristol after being closed for 50 years and making "candlesticks by hand" will be front page news. The owners will be afforded an audience with the Queen, even though she is dead (see below for creepy irony).

-  English sporting teams weekend game results will appear like clockwork every Monday on the front page of every newspaper with pic and in big font, incl the Financial Times. Those weeks they get hosed, the scoreline will mysteriously disappear. Those involving Ireland and Scotland results will never ever appear.

- The Queen will suddenly die but no-one will be told or notice that she is missing from the Royal Family's Madam Tussauds line up on account she has been replaced by Beyonce. An old but goody magicians distraction trick that one.  Her Queens speech will now be filmed from the other side of the room to avoid the lights making her face end up as a puddle on the carpet for the Corgis to then piss on.

- The BAFTA Best Picture award will go to a film titled the "Great Euscape" with the leading roles bearing an uncanny resemblance to Errol Flynn and Jessica Tandy. It will be released with a record number of sub-title languages, exception being those attached to EU27 countries.

You heard it here first.

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Just checking in on the thread........nope, nothing new said for 3 pages.

Back to Season 2 of "End of the F***ing World",  The Brits really do produce the best dead pan comedy in the world. At least that wont change after Brexit. But this thread does drone on and on and on.  Perhaps its an antipodean thing : killing us by boredom.

 

Perhaps we could agree that if there really is any new and significant news or insight, it should be posted in a different color so that I can skip all the repetition

 

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7 hours ago, IPLore said:

Just checking in on the thread........nope, nothing new said for 3 pages.

And that is news :)

BJ has around 150 days to publish his plan, and bring unity and prepare the British. He had an oven ready deal that protected all. He promised clarity.
After 38 days in office nothing published.

So it looks like he has no plan, and is still trying to figure it out. This was 6 weeks ago. Compare that with Javis interview.

 

 

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Remember all the hullabaloo from Johnson about not paying the £39 billion in May's Divorce Bill to get himself elected by the membership.

Yet his Oven Ready Deal does not materially alter it. Obviously for a part of it instead of paying through the divorce bill, the UK has been paying to date as a member state with the A.50 delay.

After 31 January the divorce bill contributing to EU budget, staff pensions etc with no membership representation kicks in.

Funny how things are just buried from view.

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31 minutes ago, LeoV said:

So it looks like he has no plan, and is still trying to figure it out. This was 6 weeks ago. Compare that with Javis interview.

"The Deal that is ready to go...ensures the supply chain is protected...ensures complete equivalence to standards, industrial requirements and all the rest of it"........however I would say that before you voted wouldn't I you poor dumb pricks...fuck with my majority I'm going to do the complete fucking opposite.

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1 hour ago, LeoV said:

. Compare that with Javis interview.

Look at what Javid said in 2016..he too changes his mind.

That is also not a good when he says  selling his new UK/EU regulation divergence plan: “Japan sells cars to the EU but they don’t follow EU rules.” ...Last time I looked;

a) They do follow EU rules; and
b) they have built factories inside the EU to sell cars,

AND

c) that was before the EU-Japan FTA was signed in July 2018.

Does the shitfuckery ever stop with this lot?

EOkBw7sW4AUyx-m.jpeg

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Coincidently this book on UK Auto just hit the bookshops and available on Amazon ......and this is before Javid's regulatory divergence announcement. What is worse than an Armageddon?

EOj5yatWkAI2KF0.jpeg

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Who in Government knows the detail? Do they know about higher costs and less choice now imposed on chemical industry?

If they don't they should be fucked, if they do  double fucked.

NB. Poster @iamian16 is a chemical industry regulatory pro.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Wow the US now make glitzy advertisements about pending Trade Deal negotiations. Never seen that before.

It must be to give the UK time to prepare for a right rogering. Very decent of them.

 

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Nah.... not that at al!.   Karl Rove on he Fox weekend show stated that Trump wants to spin the BS of NAFTA 2.0/USMCA,  China cease and desist/Phase I and in 6 months... a buy our Chlorinated chicken/UK trade deal as Trump doing great things for the economy. 

I would think that your crowd will have no problem with cooking up something trivial that can be spun as a great victory....  Will this deal follow the pattern and do no harm?

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"We live in a media ecosystem that overwhelms people with information. Some of that information is accurate, some of it is bogus, and much of it is intentionally misleading. The result is a polity that has increasingly given up on finding out the truth."

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/1/16/20991816/impeachment-trial-trump-bannon-misinformation

In my view, Jack and to a lesser extent others mislead here in this thread. A lot in Jack's case is unintentionally misleading, as he's been bathing in a kind of Brexit Kool-Aid for so long, his myopia is likely to be life long. Overwhelming the audience is straight out of Steve Bannon's playbook.

"This idea isn’t new, but Bannon articulated it about as well as anyone can. The press ideally should sift fact from fiction and give the public the information it needs to make enlightened political choices. If you short-circuit that process by saturating the ecosystem with misinformation and overwhelm the media’s ability to mediate, then you can disrupt the democratic process.

What we’re facing is a new form of propaganda that wasn’t really possible until the digital age. And it works not by creating a consensus around any particular narrative but by muddying the waters so that consensus isn’t achievable."

I'm impressed how Jack has managed to sustain his level of 'activity'.

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it’s time for Jack and the rest of the riffraff to pack yer bag..

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-immigration-boris-johnson-limit-restrict-low-skilled-workers-transition-period-a9290921.html

“Boris Johnson is drawing up plans to impose strict new restrictions on EU immigration by 2021, two years earlier than promised by Theresa May.

New proposals are understood to be in the works to implement restrictions on lower-skilled EU migrants on the first day after the Brexit transition period ends, removing a temporary extension of current rules to 2023 sought by business groups”

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https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/thousand-eu-financial-firms-plan-003809541.html


“LONDON (Reuters) - More than a thousand banks, asset managers, payments companies and insurers in the European Union plan to open offices in post-Brexit Britain so they can continue serving UK clients, regulatory consultancy Bovill said on Monday.

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2 hours ago, Sea warrior said:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/thousand-eu-financial-firms-plan-003809541.html


“LONDON (Reuters) - More than a thousand banks, asset managers, payments companies and insurers in the European Union plan to open offices in post-Brexit Britain so they can continue serving UK clients, regulatory consultancy Bovill said on Monday.

but you forgot the next sentence.

 

The new offices and staff will help mitigate the loss of business going the other way as the current unfettered two-way direct access between Britain and the EU comes to an end in December following a Brexit transition period.

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2 hours ago, Sea warrior said:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/thousand-eu-financial-firms-plan-003809541.html


“LONDON (Reuters) - More than a thousand banks, asset managers, payments companies and insurers in the European Union plan to open offices in post-Brexit Britain so they can continue serving UK clients, regulatory consultancy Bovill said on Monday.

 

56 minutes ago, The Dark Knight said:

but you forgot the next sentence.

 

The new offices and staff will help mitigate the loss of business going the other way as the current unfettered two-way direct access between Britain and the EU comes to an end in December following a Brexit transition period.

Yes that is true that UK has a big surplus of around £20 billion with Financial Services trade with EU and where UK financial services exports are over 3 times the proportion of all services imports from the EU. As you can see by attached graphs from ONS published last month big imbalance and takes a big chunk out of the UK's trade deficit with the EU.

£26.1b or 21.7% of UK Services Exports to EU and £6.1b or only 6.5% of UK Services Imports from EU.

However the bottom line is the UK leads Europe’s financial services industry and the fact EU will also potentialy lose the financial hub that is London if regulations don't align  is quite often forgotten.

The important bit is while cities like Frankfurt and Paris have very successfully wooed UK banks and financial services looking for a home in Europe, they will still struggle to catch up with London.

The bigger nigger in the woodpile however is UK financial services legislation derives from the EU and that the current market is 'highly integrated'. The EU’s common rulebook and standards apply to the UK market today and it is governed by EU regulatory bodies.

Although the UK has its own regulatory bodies, such as the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), much of the country’s financial services are regulated at an EU level, mostly through the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) which oversees the likes of credit rating agencies and trade repositories etc.

This is where UK financial services faces severe risk as the threat of being shut off from Europe. That said pain both ways just less pain for the EU.

However the implications for the UK go further afield than Europe, as most of its trade (including financial services) with around 60 non-EU countries is conducted through FTA's with the EU that will no longer exist once the UK leaves the EU. 

Financial services and other services has to be the first thing on the table in any negotiations and where on balance the EU has the whip hand.

Note: For reference the other big Service export to the EU shown on attached Tables is “other business services”, valued at £35 billion; this represented 29% of all UK 
service exports to the EU. This category includes legal, accounting, advertising, research and development, architectural, engineering and other professional and 
technical services. Unlike financial services a smaller imbalance.

IMG_20200120_155449.jpg

IMG_20200120_155623.jpg

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7 hours ago, Sea warrior said:


 it’s time for Jack and the rest of the riffraff to pack yer bag

Gone...a true leaver not a make believe leaver.

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Probably take your pick which banned organisation this lot belong to ...or they just football Dad's who have escaped for a weekend on the piss?

 

 

EOpIEduWoAI123M.jpeg

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4 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

but you forgot the next sentence.

 

The new offices and staff will help mitigate the loss of business going the other way as the current unfettered two-way direct access between Britain and the EU comes to an end in December following a Brexit transition period.

So only logical conclusion;
Financial services sector expects that there will be no equivalence. Hard brexit in this sector. Higher costs for clients.

And EU will not sit idle;
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/01/19/backlash-europe-lses-world-leading-pretensions/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

After a degree of scepticism, investors have warmed to the Refinitiv deal, which is increasingly seen as a unique opportunity to make the LSE a world leader in financial data. As on virtually everything else these days, it is the data of finance where the value is thought to lie, rather than the underlying securities trading.

Unfortunately, that causes Vestager to prick up her ears. There is little if any horizontal overlap between LSE and Refinitiv, making it impossible to make a conventional competition case against the merger.

But that’s not going to stop her from raising concerns over vertical integration. Refinitiv potentially puts the LSE in a far stronger position than any of the European competition as a digital financial powerhouse. That might once have been tolerated. Brexit puts a new perspective on the matter.

Vestager has already shown herself to be a highly political animal when dealing with the LSE. She blocked the company’s planned merger with Deutsche Borse on the very day that Britain formally notified the Commission of its intention to leave the EU under Article 50. This had little to do with the reasons given, but was largely at the behest of the German government, which objected to its stock exchange being run out of London in a post Brexit world.

In the end, Vestager may not be able to block the Refinitiv deal, but a full Stage Two investigation is a virtual certainty. The LSE may be facing more of a struggle than it thinks.

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Shoooosh...don't tell the bell ringers nothing much changes at the end of the month....they need to be on Boris's arse expecting it has been done because he will saying he has "gotten it done"

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