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Brexit WTF, WTF

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45 minutes ago, IPLore said:

Contrary to popular opinion on this thread, I believe that the UK and the EU will strike a favorable trade deal..... 

The EU will never ever grant single market access for free/not at a regulatory cost. That is guaranteed. To do so would make every FTA they have obsolete as well as make the value of EU membership plummet.

However the UK believes they will fold. The UK are wrong. Unless UK change their mind then at best some operational and trading arrangements but no FTA.

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2 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

The EU will never ever grant single market access for free/not at a regulatory cost. That is guaranteed . The UK believes they will. The UK are wrong. Unless UK change their mind then at best some trading arrangements but no FTA.

So not quite the dooooooooom day scenario you have been filling the last 500 pages on this thread, over the last two years then :D

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9 minutes ago, IPLore said:

I've made my forecast.

What is yours?

For your sake and the sake of Brits and Europeans in general, I hope that I am right.

For the Brits I hope to that you are right, the EU can handle it much better.

Very minimal time limited arrangement on aviation, postal, and food/fish, some on manufacturing (Airbus and defence stuff), UN rules on fish quota's.
Very minimal time limited deal on finances. End 2021.

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Quote

 

"Only a quarter of a century ago – within the memory of almost every Member of this House – the people of the United Kingdom enjoyed higher living standards than the citizens of any of the larger countries of Europe. Amongst the free nations of the world, Britain was then second only to the United States in economic strength.

It is not so today. For example, France and Germany's combined share of world trade in manufactured goods, which 20 years ago was almost the same as Britain's alone, is now more than three times as large as ours. The French people now produce half as much again as we do. The Germans produce more than twice as much, and they are moving further ahead all the time."

 

Who said this and when?

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Really the heroes of the Brexit campaign are the Benn act supporters. with a WA in place it is so much easier for the EU. BJ signed that away.

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8 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

Sorry KC375 I was just using a Jack technique of reporting on what we have at this moment and time to accentuate the argument, yes I'm fully aware of what 31st December will bring, but almost everybody forgets any tariffs are on both sides, not just the UK for exports. 

As I've said my money is on 23.59 on the 31st December 2020 a face saving statement will be made by both the EU and the UK on how the last minute negotiations have resolved all major hurdles and business will be resumed as per 2020 for 2021.

That going to cause uproar with the hardcore Brexiteers. 
Where do you stand on that one Wayne? Happy if that happens? 

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1 minute ago, IPLore said:

Who said this and when?

Totally out of memory, someone in Thatcher's reign. Maybe Thatcher herself.

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2 minutes ago, LeoV said:

For the Brits I hope to that you are right, the EU can handle it much better.

Very minimal time limited arrangement on aviation, postal, and food/fish, some on manufacturing (Airbus and defence stuff), UN rules on fish quota's.
Very minimal time limited deal on finances. End 2021.

You could almost see a cliff edge for the end of every year being the case until way way into the future, all to save a bit of face and to allow the politicians and all their associated hangers on such as advisors, to be able to drop their trousers to wave their willys about and feel all self important.

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4 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

So not quite the dooooooooom day scenario you have been filling the last 500 pages on this thread, over the last two years then :D

But it’s definitely not going to be an improvement is it. 

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2 minutes ago, mad said:

That going to cause uproar with the hardcore Brexiteers. 
Where do you stand on that one Wayne? Happy if that happens? 

Its probably most pragmatic for all sides, myself I think the UK needs a bit of a reboot and needs a couple of years reestablishing what exactly we want to do as a country, my guess is we want to be good neighbours and work together with the EU, just not locked into the mechanisations and duplicity of having 3 tiers of government that of local, national and EU which I consider a total waste of money. You can pick any two but you can't have all three.

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17 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

So not quite the dooooooooom day scenario you have been filling the last 500 pages on this thread, over the last two years then :D

It is no FTA plus nearly every objective in WA and PD remaining undone, two things you clearly haven't read. 

Everyone has different idea of doomsday. You think negative GDP growth for years is an acceptable Brexit price (which slashes standard of living, social care etc), others call that doomsday.

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4 minutes ago, mad said:

But it’s definitely not going to be an improvement is it. 

Brexit was never about improvement per see in my view, it was just a halting of declining social well being and giving us time to rejig. Yes it will in the early years make us poorer, what else would you expect trying to unwind 40 years of history, but its the long term future that most Brexiteers voted for, not the next few.

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1 minute ago, LeoV said:

Totally out of memory, someone in Thatcher's reign. Maybe Thatcher herself.

Very good. Not Thatcher herself but she had a heavy hand influencing her first Chancellor's first budget speech after she was elected.

The same speech also referred to the UK and Italy as the poorest members of the EU. The speech went on to propose 4 solutions ....and the iron lady followed through on all 4, even though it meant replacing Howe with Lawson to get the chancellor she wanted. It was the most amazing economic turn around of a nation in modern history.

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4 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

and duplicity of having 3 tiers of government that of local, national and EU which I consider a total waste of money. You can pick any two but you can't have all three.

Sorry you and 46% GE voters already picked your two, EU is gone, so too late for second thoughts. 

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3 minutes ago, IPLore said:

The same speech also referred to the UK and Italy as the poorest members of the EU.

Funny indeed, UK is now set to be poorer then Italy.

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1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

Sorry you and 46% GE voters already picked your two, EU is gone, so too late for second thoughts. 

And that's the decision that was made, so why all the noise from yourself ?

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Haha, if only that would have been on the referendum...

1 Regional and EU government
2 Regional and Westminster government.

 

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There is nothing really changed since the  UK left the EU, only some flags went down. Many Brexiteers are feeling betrayed and criticizing BJ. And many still pointing at the EU or Germany. Weirdo's, UK is now responsible for the UK. Or better said Westminster is now responsible for the whole of the UK, oh dear.

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8 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

And that's the decision that was made, so why all the noise from yourself ?

Some people like bird watching or train spotting ...I love watching train smashes.

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EU does not need a face saving deal, UK maybe. EU wants steps in the exit process to soften the shock.
Cliff is gone, WA is signed.

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8 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Haha, if only that would have been on the referendum...

1 Regional and EU government
2 Regional and Westminster government.

 

If only, would have summed it up better.

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1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

Some people like bird watching or train spotting ...I love watching train smashes.

So you are the weirdo who stands around and spends their entire lives doing something that everybody else considers "strange and with no beneficial effect to anybody" ?

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Not just Royal Mail. From 31 December or maybe earllier all UK OnLine transactions with EU will have costs/transfer costs of UK Import Declarations picked up somewhere.

Yeah but royal mail are special cases, they're the only courier I know who charges extra to do their job.

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1 minute ago, JonRowe said:

Yeah but royal mail are special cases, they're the only courier I know who charges extra to do their job.

I've got Royal Mail shares somewhere, at pretty rock bottom prices at the moment, maybe just maybe they'll make me a millionaire.

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BJ cabinet meeting, or better called sheep herding.
I thought it was a joke, no, it is serious;

Boris Johnson engaged in a call and response with Cabinet this morning:
PM: How many hospitals are we going to build? Cabinet in unison: 40
PM: Well done. How many more police officers? Cabinet: 20,000
PM: That's right. How many more nurses? Cabinet: 50,000 PM: Exactly

How fucking childish.

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Just now, LeoV said:

BJ cabinet meeting, or better called sheep herding.
I thought it was a joke, no, it is serious;

Boris Johnson engaged in a call and response with Cabinet this morning:
PM: How many hospitals are we going to build? Cabinet in unison: 40
PM: Well done. How many more police officers? Cabinet: 20,000
PM: That's right. How many more nurses? Cabinet: 50,000 PM: Exactly

How fucking childish.

something similar happened few weeks ago, did you miss that ? for me it was like "shivers me timbers, this reminds of Germany in the '30's" scary rather than laughable

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8 minutes ago, LeoV said:

BJ cabinet meeting, or better called sheep herding.
I thought it was a joke, no, it is serious;

Boris Johnson engaged in a call and response with Cabinet this morning:
PM: How many hospitals are we going to build? Cabinet in unison: 40
PM: Well done. How many more police officers? Cabinet: 20,000
PM: That's right. How many more nurses? Cabinet: 50,000 PM: Exactly

How fucking childish.

I think there was an awful lot on that table who thought exactly the same. But then you are not exactly dealing with world wise adults here

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1 hour ago, IPLore said:

Contrary to popular opinion on this thread, I believe that the UK and the EU will strike a favorable trade deal.

Well, I don't !

EU are light years ahead of the UK in prep for the inevitable and will not allow cherry picking or be pushed around, bullied, vilified ...... add as you see fit. 

Moreover I think they are getting pretty tired of it all and want to get on with other more important internal EU business.

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21 minutes ago, LeoV said:

BJ cabinet meeting, or better called sheep herding.
I thought it was a joke, no, it is serious;

Boris Johnson engaged in a call and response with Cabinet this morning:
PM: How many hospitals are we going to build? Cabinet in unison: 40
PM: Well done. How many more police officers? Cabinet: 20,000
PM: That's right. How many more nurses? Cabinet: 50,000 PM: Exactly

How fucking childish.

Speaking of embarrassing first cabinet meetings:

 

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48 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

Yes it will in the early years make us poorer, what else would you expect trying to unwind 40 years of history, but its the long term future that most Brexiteers voted for, not the next few.

I think you have a problem right there. You may be able (and be intelligent enough) to weather the dip but Joe Blogs was promised an immediate improvement in life & circumstances.  He was told all his issues were the EU's fault: Immigration, employment, housing, GP/A&E access, wage levels ...etc.   Removing the EU would solve that instantly.

Joe Blogs will not be impressed in say, the next 15 months when his standard of living and what he can buy for his minimum wage goes down the plughole.

 

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14 minutes ago, Laser1 said:

I think you have a problem right there. You may be able (and be intelligent enough) to weather the dip but Joe Blogs was promised an immediate improvement in life & circumstances.  He was told all his issues were the EU's fault: Immigration, employment, housing, GP/A&E access, wage levels ...etc.   Removing the EU would solve that instantly.

Joe Blogs will not be impressed in say, the next 15 months when his standard of living and what he can buy for his minimum wage goes down the plughole.

 

I expect Dom Cummings will find a way to manage the narrative for longer than 15 months...it's the EUs fault has to have at least another two years of life left as a key message.

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25 minutes ago, Laser1 said:

Joe Blogs will not be impressed in say, the next 15 months when his standard of living and what he can buy for his minimum wage goes down the plughole.

Sorry only Remainers are pushing that line.

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9 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

Sorry only Remainers are pushing that line.

What is the Leave/Govt line on standard of living/GDP and timing then??? You must know that off by heart by now. 

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8 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

What is the Leave/Govt line on standard of living/GDP and timing then??? You must know that off by heart by now. 

Why bother to know it by rote, its not going to make one jot of difference to the outcome, next chance of change is 5 years away, you just gotta ride the ride over the next 5 year and then make a decision whether we have Boris or Becky to lead us forth.

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1 hour ago, Waynemarlow said:

Brexit was never about improvement per see in my view, it was just a halting of declining social well being and giving us time to rejig. Yes it will in the early years make us poorer, what else would you expect trying to unwind 40 years of history, but its the long term future that most Brexiteers voted for, not the next few.

It just doesn't work like that in realeconomik. Economies (like corporate enterprises) are either growing, stagnating or declining. Once an economy is declining it is much harder to turn it around and restart growth. The sooner an economic decline is nipped in the bud and revitalized, the more likely that growth will be resumed. Long terms declines are extraordinary hard to return to growth.

This is due to the effect on the economy of investment. When an economy starts to decline, the natural reaction is to reduce capital investment. This in itself (reduced spending on capital goods, machinery and IT) slows the economy further. However in a normal cyclical downturn, the owners of capital assume that the cycle will revert to its usual upturn and they will continue with maintenance capital expenditure and be prepared to return to investment early in the cycle.  Capacity will remain at least static. When the owners of capital are faced with a secular decline, or an economic shock or great economic uncertainty , the owners of capital will allow actual capacity to shrink.

In the 2008/9 downturn in the US , all branches of the government, on both sides of the aisle, realized that this was an extraordinary shock to the system. They moved rapidly to an extraordinary and unprecedented  series of stimulus packages including TARP and Quantitative Easing. The US response was much more pronounced and deeper than in Europe. They were determined to avoid a long or deep recession.  In addition the US economy is considerably more dynamic and entrepreneurial than Europe and the US emerged much more quickly than most of the rest of the developed world.

In contrast consider the prolonged economic declines in Latin America in the 80s.   Contemplate the 2 decade stagnation (the ice age) in Japan.   Any kind of "acceptance" or "expectation" that it is okay to experience an economic decline is a recipe for  disaster.  If the attitude "  Y es it will in the early years make us poorer " is pervasive in the UK.....then this ship is slowly sinking and capital will go elsewhere.

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The new Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Brandon Lewis has said that there will be no border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. 

Speaking to reporters in Belfast, ahead of his meetings at Stormont House, he said that there would be no border down the Irish Sea after the Brexit transition period.

Mr Lewis said: "The United Kingdom is going to be one area and all will be able to benefit from our future global trade deals.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0214/1115361-brandon-lewis/

Oh no, here we go again, 2016 is knocking....

 

 

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1 hour ago, IPLore said:

In the 2008/9 downturn in the US , all branches of the government, on both sides of the aisle, realized that this was an extraordinary shock to the system. They moved rapidly to an extraordinary and unprecedented  series of stimulus packages including TARP and Quantitative Easing. The US response was much more pronounced and deeper than in Europe. They were determined to avoid a long or deep recession.  In addition the US economy is considerably more dynamic and entrepreneurial than Europe and the US emerged much more quickly than most of the rest of the developed world.

We have slightly different capitalist systems, US more deregulated.After the crises the US dived much deeper and bounced up earlier. Wile the EU went less deep and restored  the loss in a longer time. US economy is more dynamic, yes, not much to do with entrepreneurial ship.

But the UK wants to be more like the US. Budget will tell. Founders of the thinktanks/lobbygroup IEA and Taxpayers alliance have now influence in the UK government by their puppets like Hancock, Truss Sunak and above all Cummings. US right wing money.

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Best comment;
Brexit will be a lesson in humility and reality for these incredibly arrogant wannabe-Lords of the world.

 

 I am afraid the Ivan Rogers prediction will become true.

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3 hours ago, IPLore said:

It just doesn't work like that in realeconomik. Economies (like corporate enterprises) are either growing, stagnating or declining. Once an economy is declining it is much harder to turn it around and restart growth. The sooner an economic decline is nipped in the bud and revitalized, the more likely that growth will be resumed. Long terms declines are extraordinary hard to return to growth.

This is due to the effect on the economy of investment. When an economy starts to decline, the natural reaction is to reduce capital investment. This in itself (reduced spending on capital goods, machinery and IT) slows the economy further. However in a normal cyclical downturn, the owners of capital assume that the cycle will revert to its usual upturn and they will continue with maintenance capital expenditure and be prepared to return to investment early in the cycle.  Capacity will remain at least static. When the owners of capital are faced with a secular decline, or an economic shock or great economic uncertainty , the owners of capital will allow actual capacity to shrink.

In the 2008/9 downturn in the US , all branches of the government, on both sides of the aisle, realized that this was an extraordinary shock to the system. They moved rapidly to an extraordinary and unprecedented  series of stimulus packages including TARP and Quantitative Easing. The US response was much more pronounced and deeper than in Europe. They were determined to avoid a long or deep recession.  In addition the US economy is considerably more dynamic and entrepreneurial than Europe and the US emerged much more quickly than most of the rest of the developed world.

In contrast consider the prolonged economic declines in Latin America in the 80s.   Contemplate the 2 decade stagnation (the ice age) in Japan.   Any kind of "acceptance" or "expectation" that it is okay to experience an economic decline is a recipe for  disaster.  If the attitude "  Y es it will in the early years make us poorer " is pervasive in the UK.....then this ship is slowly sinking and capital will go elsewhere.

Or paraphrased, reality sets expectations and expectations set reality.

If you’ve experienced cycles you expect them to continue...i.e. an expansion will follow a contraction so business may even position itself / invest to take advantage of the expansion thereby shortening the contraction....BUT once reality of a contraction goes on long enough to reset expectations then the contraction becomes the expectation...

Despite all those econometric models and Nobel prizes in economics starting with Frisch and Tinbergen ... Keynes “animal spirits—a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities” still drive much economic activity or worse inactivity.

Add in a little hyper inflation or even more terrifying some disinflation and things can get really really ugly....

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2 hours ago, LeoV said:

We have slightly different capitalist systems, US more deregulated.After the crises the US dived much deeper and bounced up earlier. Wile the EU went less deep and restored  the loss in a longer time. US economy is more dynamic, yes, not much to do with entrepreneurial ship.

But the UK wants to be more like the US. Budget will tell. Founders of the thinktanks/lobbygroup IEA and Taxpayers alliance have now influence in the UK government by their puppets like Hancock, Truss Sunak and above all Cummings. US right wing money.

Depended on the country

UK GDP fell further than the US and took longer to emerge. The banking sector was crucified and required government ownership.

German GDP fell very sharply but recovered very quickly, partly due to the lagged impact of the Hartz reforms. Remember unemployment got as high as 11% in Germany 3 years before the recession took hold in the US.

BeNel financial sector was hit by high exposure to foreign debt and US subprime. This led to the bank failure of Fortis and the government rescue of Dexia.  The four most exposed European countries to the sub prime loan crisis were Netherlands, Belgium, UK and Ireland. Total foreign debt on Dutch bank balance sheets was a staggering 300+% of GDP, of which 66% of that was US debt . The Dutch economy which had been so well managed until then got slammed and GDP fell 4.5% (slightly more then the US).

None of the major US money center banks were nationalized and all of them repaid TARP. Fortunately we (USA) sold most of our shit (aka CMOs, CMBSs and their Synthetics) to the Irish, Dutch, UK and Belgium Banks with a unhealthy amount going to Iceland as well. Ironically the shit turned out to not be so bad. I bought CMOs at 45 cents on the dollar in mid 2009 for myself and I also bought the subordinated preferred of Euroclear when it was yielding 28%. I figured that if Euroclear defaulted then the only thing of value would be clean water and ammunition (and I had a reserve of those as well) .  You would earn less than 2% on Euroclear paper now and I sold the CMOs at 70+ cents (too early).  It was one of those once in a life time opportunities.

 

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3 hours ago, LeoV said:

 ....Speaking to reporters in Belfast, ahead of his meetings at Stormont House, he said that there would be no border down the Irish Sea after the Brexit transition period....

Oh no, here we go again, 2016 is knocking..

Yep NI becomes the punching bag again for the second round but this time played out on the ground, not on the genteel benches of Westminister.

Someone at Downing St might need to measure their NI Sec up for a body bag as some in NI won't bother waiting around for a ECJ ruling.

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3 hours ago, LeoV said:

The new Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Brandon Lewis has said that there will be no border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. 

 

"He had previously served as Minister of State for Security and Deputy for EU Exit and No Deal Preparation. "

Even George Orwell could not have come up with that ministerial title.  You just could not make this stuff up and be taken seriously.

 

He looks the part as well.  Reminiscent of a mid-level East German security official from a Le Carre novel.

image.png.68548020502b2b65b973cda0e3825d28.png

 

Minister of Security.webp

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5 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

Why bother to know it by rote, its not going to make one jot of difference to the outcome, 

So you believe there is uplift in standard of living/GDP courtesy of Brexit, you just don't know it off by heart. That's lucky, it will diminish the shock of gathering food from beside the road.

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6 hours ago, KC375 said:

I expect Dom Cummings will find a way to manage the narrative for longer than 15 months...it's the EUs fault has to have at least another two years of life left as a key message.

Unfortunately for him the NI & RoI Protocol takes bullshit and spin off the table and it comes to a head on 31 December, legally binding and the Court of Justice of the European Union have the jurisdiction no one else. Totally independent of all other shit including the FTA.

Cummings keeps going with this current shitfuckery after 31Dec it also moves into the international incident arena inclusive another international treaty, the GFA, where the UK will be seen as the parriah again in NI. The US will be the first on the scene to kick them into line.

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23 minutes ago, IPLore said:

.... It was one of those once in a life time opportunities.

 

And they do come along pretty much at least once in a lifetime.

A colleague’s mom was midsized developer in the ‘80s with much of her stuff financed by S&Ls.

After the S&Ls went under the Resolution Trust came around and talked her into buying back all her debt...at something like 25 cents on the dollar. This was debt she had never missed an interest or principal payment on and backed by assetts fully meeting debt service targets...despite the stance she took in negotiating with the Resolution Trust she was DELIGHTED to settle her debt for ¼ of what she owed....and retired (ok semiretired) twenty years earlier than planned.

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Jack why do you insist on all these facts and negativity

I think you underestimate just how long Dom can keep up the messaging even though it be divorced from reality.

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They are turning up the heat on Cummings new tea boy.

Rishi Sunak challenged to provide more details about his former career as a City hedge fund manager before entering politics...participated in a multimillion-pound tax avoidance scheme.

Watch the budget disappear off the table, just like last October.

New chancellor Rishi Sunak challenged over hedge fund past

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WA signed 2 weeks ago and already new dog loyal NI SOS says the UK will not obey it. and this was planned, not a slip of the tongue. UK want to stir up this. we will see why in the coming weeks.
If the UK refuses to obey international law what is the point of the EU concluding another International Trade Treaty with the UK ?

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47 minutes ago, KC375 said:

Jack why do you insist on all these facts and negativity

I think you underestimate just how long Dom can keep up the messaging even though it be divorced from reality

You did say he is able to "manage the narrative." That "management" will cease on 31 Dec over the NI protocol but I'm not suggesting that spin will stop. In fact horrified if it does. It is the best part of this long horror movie.

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35 minutes ago, LeoV said:

WA signed 2 weeks ago and already new dog loyal NI SOS says the UK will not obey it. and this was planned, not a slip of the tongue.

....UK want to stir up this. we will see why in the coming weeks.

I have a feeling he was earmarked for the job well before 8 Dec (after Smith objected to suspending Parliament and it triggering Home Rule), the date of his (a nobody) Marr interview defending Boris's "no NI checks" claim.

The "why" is impossible to fathom as it is nonsence and there is nothing to be gained domestically. The only thing it can possibly be is the enevitable NI Protocol shitfight is a disguise to the "row back" of having to extend the "transition" period beyond 31 December. They then call this extension the "implementation" phase to further disguise the row back .

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The shitfuckery is at least entertaining.

Mmm so "key" to this explosion in trade is a deal with Israel outside of top 30, less than £9 billion bilateral and UK in trade deficit.

The funnier thing there is no FTA. All this is  the “trade continuity” agreement they signed last year.

Must be a little man's syndrome.

Scroll to 4.40

UK on brink of explosion in trade with key international partner Israel after Brexit transition

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2 hours ago, KC375 said:

Jack why do you insist on all these facts and negativity

Maybe I'm a vampire killer? Graphs like this comparative GDP/Standard of Living Growth one are more effective than a oak stake.

EQus6O9WsAAxkRD.jpeg

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Ha ha.

"Still, it’s always nice to see the prime minister allowed down from the attic to do a bit of prime ministering. As befits a man who spends more time with some of his catchphrases than with some of his kids, Johnson began by leading the cabinet in a pantomime call-and-response exercise to which they dutifully submitted. “How many hospitals are we going to build?” asked the prime minister. “Forty!” lied the cabinet in unison."

Dominic Cummings has started to believe he’s cool - He likes to play badass, but if he’s so ruthless why does the cabinet still contain such mediocrities as Gavin Williamson and Liz Truss?

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Wow doesn't that make you want to go out and buy a huge box of chocolate selections from Belgium.  .....maybe also wish they would raise the heat on that catwalk?

So today you just order that big box from your friendly chocolatier down the road and it arrives no hassle the next day.

However after 31 December he will have to do this for that box containing dark chocolates; milk chocolates; some solid; fruit-filled; nut-filled; fruit and nut filled; pralines and liqueur etc.

1. It will be Customs Entry now with appropriate forms and fees. Extra cost, but let's say he will let a Customs Agent do it.

2. However he will have to give the Customs Agent the Trade Tariff Commodity Code (or Harmonized Tariff Schedule or HTS codes) for these chocolates. Mmmmmm so which one is it, Ogh no there is more than one code for chocolates in the same box. Shit.

3. A truck might contain hundreds of boxes with many hundreds of different HTS codes, all with different levels of duty, regulatory compliance and from different suppliers. One wrong bit of paperwork that truck is going nowhere for days.

4. Around 10,000 trucks roll on and off ferries either side of the Channel each day. Another 6,000 trucks cross via the Tunnel daily. That's excluding ports outside the Channel. There is no trade traffic like this anywhere else in the world. So around 16,000 vehicle entries per day with the potential to be kicked to the side of the kerb by the slip of a pen or keyboard stroke.

5. Add in for the interim a Customs computer system 30 years old (the replacement not working) that has not seen this style and quantum of action before. Any failure hits all UK land, air and sea movements.

Now that is just Belgium chocolates. How about some German nails.

Brexit is about removing red tape everyone is still being told and probably sincerely still believe. So how could this have happened? Many will be violently complaining saying they didn't vote for this.

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13 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

Brexit was never about improvement per see in my view, it was just a halting of declining social well being and giving us time to rejig.Yes it will in the early years make us poorer, what else would you expect trying to unwind 40 years of history, but its the long term future that most Brexiteers voted for, not the next few.

 

10 hours ago, IPLore said:

It just doesn't work like that in realeconomik. Economies (like corporate enterprises) are either growing, stagnating or declining. Once an economy is declining it is much harder to turn it around and restart growth. The sooner an economic decline is nipped in the bud and revitalized, the more likely that growth will be resumed. Long terms declines are extraordinary hard to return to growth....

No truer words said and ones the incumbent Government have spent the last decade putting in the bottom drawer. First pulling the wrong fiscal and monetary levers (austerity) and hoping it would correct itself. Now promoting Brexit as the magic cure all pill.

Yet how can that be so when of that pill the Government's own Treasury and every economist of note in the world forecasts a long term hit. Their only point of difference is the quantum and duration.

The UK have now voluntarily chosen reverse not forward gear.

That decline in 4 graphs.

images (47).png

images (46).png

images (48).png

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These two pictures are instructive.

Note: Australian and EU Bilateral trade is worth  around €50bn for Goods and for €30bn for Services. Australia has no difficulty with the EU's regulatory regime, though GUI's a speed bump as expected.

UK trade with EU is 10 times larger or approaching €800bn and the UK are seeking regulatory divergence.

Hence by comparison a UK/EU FTA far more complex before factoring in geographical and market differences.

First pic is Australian and EU Chief Negotiators in Australia last week for Round 6  of Aus/EU FTA negotiations. Summary of Aust Negotiating Aims & Approach and EU Negotiation Brief

By comparison the UK have in total only around 40 Negotiators and it acknowledged this is light on both in both number and experience. Round 1 is expected to commence next month. The UK has not published their Negotiating Aims & Approach and the EU have published draft (actual ratified this month) of their Negotiation Brief.

Second pic is Negotiators briefing Stakeholders on the outcome of last week's negotiations. These are principally industry/business representatives who the Government engaged with long before negotiations commenced over 18 months ago.

By comparison the UK Government have not engaged with industry and business.

The only common denominator is the Australian Government, the UK and EU are hoping respective FTA's will be concluded in principle at year end.

Who appears better equipped the UK or Australia? Which FTA will probably be finalised first and the one being the most complete and supported by industry?

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8 hours ago, IPLore said:

It was one of those once in a life time opportunities.

 

8 hours ago, KC375 said:

And they do come along pretty much at least once in a lifetime.

A colleague’s mom was midsized developer in the ‘80s with much of her stuff financed by S&Ls.

After the S&Ls went under the Resolution Trust came around and talked her into buying back all her debt...at something like 25 cents on the dollar. This was debt she had never missed an interest or principal payment on and backed by assetts fully meeting debt service targets...despite the stance she took in negotiating with the Resolution Trust she was DELIGHTED to settle her debt for ¼ of what she owed....and retired (ok semiretired) twenty years earlier than planned.

Then the second bite of opportunity. Say for instance you come from somewhere which weathered the GFC relatively unscathed, ie. Aust. Jump on a plane and buy houses in say San Fransisco and Miami, in lots from mortgagees in possession for around 30 cents in the dollar, rent out, wait then recently sell.

US House Prices

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17 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

Sorry only Remainers are pushing that line.

Give it 15 months and there may be a few Brexiteers saying the same as well........especially when they’re standing in line at the airport. :lol:

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

Then the second bite of opportunity. Say for instance you come from somewhere which weathered the GFC relatively unscathed, ie. Aust. Jump on a plane and buy houses in say San Fransisco and Miami, in lots from mortgagees in possession for around 30 cents in the dollar, rent out, wait then recently sell.

US House Prices

images (45).png

So a rise of 109% on dodgy American housing that most owners could not have nor ever have afforded, which was bundled up and sold to suckers in the Netherlands, UK , Ireland and amongst others Iceland. No one person has been jailed for that failure that nearly bought the UK banking system down in the UK and you are proud of that fact ?

Far safer to have invested your nest egg in a UK stock market tracker and made

Ten years after Black Monday the FTSE 100 was 189% higher.

https://www.brewin.co.uk/charities/insight-for-charities/ten-years-after-the-financial-crisis/

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On 2/11/2020 at 1:13 PM, jack_sparrow said:

London is one of the global centres of trading in gold, meaning it is an important business for the UK (and those that export Gold to the UK). The UK imported $25.6 billion (8.9% total) and is ranked #4 behind Switzerland, India and China. Canada, US, South Africa and Australia the Top 4 exporters to the UK. Global Gold Exports/Imports.

So gold has a sizeable impact on the UK’s trade figures. The ONS are now removing gold from the UK's headline trade statistics from today. This is to provide a clearer picture of the impact of gold and give a better picture of the UK’s underlying trade patterns, that are about to dramatically change courtesy of Brexit.To explain.

Gold is indestructible – but can we always believe in UK trade figures with the disaggregated effect of the international trade in non-monetary.

A bizzare coincidence or not???;This a continuation from this post above a week ago about the ONS recently removing gold from the UK's headline trade statistics to give better picture of the UK’s underlying trade patterns.

Well something weird just happened that I picked up courtesy of a fascinating story written by Ed Conway from the Times. It's all about a pretty astonishing gold chart and my favourite Minister distorting the nature of the UK economy.

 

That tweet of Truss's looks pretty good and innocuous until you look at the UK trading history. Since comparable records began in 1998, there hasn't been a single month where the UK was a net goods exporter. The UK has always had a Goods Trade deficit. Yet in December for the first time in 22 years a Goods Trade Surplus????? 

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How can this be so?? Here's the chart in question: Exports of gold from the UK have always been minimal (average monthly level abt £126m). Then, suddenly, in the last two months of last year, gold exports went through the fucking roof.

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That  £12bn (over two months) exceeds exports over any two month period, to ANY single country, inc US or Germany the UK's biggest trading partners.

 Why did gold exports spike so dramatically?  It is surmised a US bank with London gold vaults shifted some of that gold from being "unallocated" to being "allocated". The gold stayed in the same vault but "technically" it shifted from UK ownership to the US ownership.

In other words, a couple of clicks in a bank's spreadsheet caused the biggest fluctuation in Britain's trade figures in modern history. 

So with with this balance sheet correction with Gold stripped out every bullet point in Truss's tweet is wrong.

- UK exported £674bn of goods & services (not £689)
- A 2.9% increase in exports, not 5%. The lowest increase since 2016. 
- Not known exactly how much exports to non-EU countries rose, however they certainly didn't grow by 13.6%

It obviously raises further questions: Why was this done? Did the ONS advise the Government of this anomoly but were instructed to ignore it? Who really owns the gold anyway?

The Times - Multibillion mystery of the great gold sale - 24 February 2020

 

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2 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

Far safer to have invested your nest egg in a UK stock market tracker and made.

Ten years after Black Monday the FTSE 100 was 189 % higher

Try reading. Has nothing to do with buying housing at market value, plus you have omitted annual return where rental exceeds dividends from equities and taxation differences. As for security bricks and mortar beats paper. 

6 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

buy houses...in lots from mortgagees in possession for around 30 cents in the dollar, rent out...

 

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28 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Try reading. Has nothing to do with buying housing at market value, plus you have omitted annual return where rental exceeds dividends from equities and taxation differences. As for security bricks and mortar beats paper. 

 

Ummm sorry to say but as there's in the region of 18M empty homes in the US and most of those houses are in shall we say less desirable locations,  would have lain empty, incurring local rates and costs including maintenance, it would be highly doubtful to have made the profits you are talking about, if not loss's

Bricks & mortar are a long term thing, you know the very thing that I raise regularly and of which you seem to know very little other than to extract your pennys worth in the short term, you were talking about short term speculation on housing and I  would argue could have gone belly up faster than a coyote in the desert, nah if you just take the last 10 years as you were quoting, then stocks and shares would have whooped your housing speculation with whole lot less risk..

 

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42 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

Ummm sorry to say but as there's in the region of 18M empty homes in the US and most of those houses are in shall we say less desirable locations,..,..

...it would be highly doubtful to have made the profits you are  talking about, if not loss's...

...Bricks & mortar are a long term thing, you know the very thing that I raise regularly and of which you seem to know very little other than to extract your pennys worth in the short term, you were talking about short term speculation on housing and I would argue could have gone belly up faster than a coyote in the desert, nah if you just take the last  10 years as you were quoting, then stocks and shares would have whooped your housing speculation with whole lot less risk.

You really prefer writing shit to reading. You are also speaking of a hypothetical outcome, I'm not. 

As for security & risk, what is interest rate, loan to valuation ratio (LVR) and recourse differences between paper and income earning bricks and mortar in your neck of the woods? That answer disposes with the last of your nonsence.

7 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

..buy houses in San Fransisco and Miami,..

 

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The US  tarriffs are retaliatory over UK state aid to UK Airbus factories. As for her really big warning against the UK leaving the EU Single Market...well that is one serious case of dementia.

Anyway whats all the fuss about, the dwarf says the UK shouldn't give a fuck about Airbus.

 What a two faced cow.

 

 

 

 

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I don't think either Jack or Wayne should go into the investment advisory business........although it would be interesting and entertaining if they co-founded an advisory business together. Marlow & Sparrow Advisors Inc. - "Bored of the same old consensus views, Jack and Wayne promise you never to reach consensus or agree on anything"

In this particular instance Wayne is correct;  Productive assets (publicly quoted companies) have massively outperformed Real Estate (privately owned and publicly quoted) since the 2008/09 recession. Calling public companies "paper" is no different to calling the title deed to real estate "paper". Stocks are the title deeds to the hard assets and goodwill of a producing company.

Both assets have had a substantial revaluation driven by the same common factor......QE and the lowest sustained interest rates in two centuries. Manufacturing and service companies have outperformed real estate because they have, as a whole,  added underlying value. They are making more stuff and selling it for a profit.  Real estate in general has suffered from two broad headwinds (1) Online shopping, Amazon etc has led to a drop in demand for retail space leading to one of the formerly largest and most valuable sectors of bricks and mortar real estate to become just bricks and mortar in some places.   (2) Office space has survived but increased online commuting has certainly taken the top off values.  Residential real estate in certain select locations has done well but has notably underperformed stocks in general.

Jack rightly points out that if the Bay Area technology boom had been as obvious to you as it was to him, you could have made a killing in San Francisco real estate.  As the growing number of employees of Apple,  Adobe , Agilent, Autodesk, Google, Facebook, Salesforce , Intuit, etc etc received their bonuses, residential real estate has boomed......BUT.......you would have made more money with the same insight by just buying the companies.  

The best areas of residential real estate have out performed real estate in general, but the best areas of the stock market have massively outperformed the best areas of real estate.

In terms of "safety".  When interest rates rise over the next 10 years, both residential real estate and stocks will be negatively impacted. Stock markets however never make new lows and will make new highs at some distant time in the future because they represent title deeds to productive assets. Personally I think both are a bit risky at present (but mining and resource assets look kinda interesting)

 

Cheers

IPL. 

 

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15 minutes ago, IPLore said:

In this particular instance Wayne is correct;  Productive assets (publicly quoted companies) have massively outperformed Real Estate (privately owned and publicly quoted) since the 2008/09 recession. 

Who said he was wrong??? Mate try reading. I spoke only of a specific real life wholesale (not retail) residential RE investment, not hypothetical, that out performed the equity market in the same period . You and Wayne have gone off on a investment tour of your own.

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My bet this one is going to take the crown off Truss for dipshit utterances.

She is AG for a reason. Like Patel a nasty piece of work. Her voting record on anything human rights etc has been against. As a lawyer acted defending the Home Office in immigration cases plus voting record underpins that and is a top dog in the ERG. Amazing how so many immigrants are so anti immigration. Sort of we got in now, close the door behind us. 

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Things going nowhere in NI.

Currently a battle between Progressive Democrats side of FF and Left/Sinn Fein side of FF about a coalition with either FG or SF. Go either way but money maybe on FG? 

That leads to FF, FG & Greens? Coalition = shitfight a probably second election.

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1 hour ago, IPLore said:

Calling public companies "paper" is no different to calling the title deed to real estate "paper". Stocks are the title deeds to the hard assets and goodwill of a producing company.

If no different then why do financial institutions allocate a more generous interest rate, loan to valuation ratio (LVR) and recourse terms to income earning RE than to equities of a similiar rating? Answer RE because of its lower risk profile.

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55 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

If no different then why do financial institutions allocate a more generous interest rate, loan to valuation ratio (LVR) and recourse terms to income earning RE than to equities of a similiar rating? Answer RE because of its lower risk profile.

Generally speaking financial institutions charge a lower interest rate for borrowing against publicly quoted equities (margin interest) than they charge on income earning Real Estate. The rate is significantly lower when you take account of origination fees etc.

Anyway, Im sure you did well buying distressed real estate in 2009. Ironically folks made even more money by buying the collaterilzed debt on US distressed real estate.  The debt went to a bigger discount in Miami than the real estate itself . Not only did it eventually return to par but the running yields were in excess 0f 20% per annum. That said, if you levered up on the tech sector in 2009 , there is no asset class in the world which comes close to the returns earned in publicly quoted tech sector. It dwarfs what anyone could have achieved in even the savviest distressed real estate or distressed bond deal.  However, the real estate was an arbitrage opportunity created by financial dislocation. The tech sector needed foresight of a secular trend. It might be obvious in hindsight but hard to see at the time.

So.......is the UK presenting any dislocation opportunities Jack?

Using a leading UK housebuilder as a proxy...

Did the investors that bought Persimmon at the depth of the Brexit crisis last fall see something that you do not?   Was this their Miami?

 

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6 minutes ago, IPLore said:

Persimmon

My house was built by Persimmon.  Their SOP is build cheap & quick, try to renege on their obligations to remedy faults, pocket the money and do a runner.

They play the long game and hope that customers just go away in frustration.  Their directors award themselves generous bonuses over the back of distraught clients.

No wonder their bottom line looks good but they are nothing more than a bunch of cheap modern day crooks.

 

Note : I got to know the whole customer service team by their first names.  They didn't realize I played the long game as well. Okay it took the best part of 10 years but all is good.  I guess they got sick & tired of me in the end  :-)

 

 

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1 hour ago, IPLore said:

Generally speaking financial institutions charge a lower interest rate for borrowing against publicly quoted equities (margin interest) than they charge on income earning Real Estate. The rate is significantly lower when you take account of origination fees etc....

..So.......is the UK presenting any dislocation  opportunities Jack

I'm sure you just overlooked....LVR and recourse terms to come up with the risk profile favouring RE. 

I'm sticking to the confines of standing by what I originally said. Not interested in going down other rabbit holes.

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5 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

You really prefer writing shit to reading. You are also speaking of a hypothetical outcome, I'm not.

If you want to be selective in your real estate area then quite happy to be selective 

JD Sports Fashion (LSE:JD.) and Ashtead (LSE:AHT) represent the stock market buys of the decade after returns of 3,220% and 2,870% eclipsed the performance of a clutch of high-yielding housebuilding stocks.

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

I'm sure you just overlooked....LVR and recourse terms to come up with the risk profile favouring RE. 

I'm sticking to the confines of standing by what I originally said. Not interested in going down other rabbit holes.

You remain mistaken. A residential income producing real estate investment is lower quality loan collateral then a portfolio of liquid publicly quoted securities. But moving on and returning to your area of expertise : Brexit.

Do you think that the UK equity market facing the impact of Brexit is an attractive opportunity or an unattractive opportunity?

Which sectors do you like? Which do you dislike?

Based on your savvy and in-depth analysis of Brexit, do you think that UK residential income producing real estate is attractive or unattractive? Which niche regions/markets do you like?

What does your partner Mr. Marlow ( Marlow & Sparrow LLC) recommend these days?

 

 

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In the UK markets, it is probably a good idea to start to halve-out, if you haven't already.  The capital market is not at the bottom yet.  There are definitely areas of bounce, but the inertia is not substantial enough to make a good press of it, and there are far better opportunities elsewhere.  The bottom of the non-commercial property market (in reference to the general GB equity market) probably bottomed in November 2019, so if you are prepared to play against the long trend in the UK economy, then halving-in would be a good idea.  

However, I note an interesting dispute arbitrage opportunity at M&S.  I do not think that dispute will resolve into a buy/sell arrangement.  Rather, a real shotgun may be in play.

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6 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Things going nowhere in NI.

Currently a battle between Progressive Democrats side of FF and Left/Sinn Fein side of FF about a coalition with either FG or SF. Go either way but money maybe on FG? 

That leads to FF, FG & Greens? Coalition = shitfight a probably second election.

Any of the minor parties ensbling a Fffg government will be signing their own death warrent at the next election.

For fffg a government would be an amalgamation. Their tudes rusing snd falling together. That eould usser in sin fain ss the permanent second party in a 2 party + others state.

Could be wrong but this looks to me to be heading for anithervelection, with SF feilding enough candudates to form a government.

Ff seem to feel they can scair monger people to an alternative outcome. They seem to be saying that SF ecconomucs are objectionable. Who out of the people who voted SF will be put off by tge idea of the well off paying more tax? Not many i guess.

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2 hours ago, IPLore said:

You remain mistaken.......

....What does Marlow & IP Law (MIP) recommend these days?

IP you and Wayne belong to a small earthly group that repeatedly ignore what has been said and believe their opinion (or even a norm) will always trump an "actual" or "recorded" event (often not knowing the details of that event so make up the unknown bits to suit your narrative), so you two are clearly a better placed to make formidable partnership.

I will leave therefore leave your question with that renowned firm, MIP.

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46 minutes ago, morrisre said:

Any of the minor parties ensbling a Fffg government will be signing their own death warrent at the next election.

morrisre absolutely and history proves your opinion to be solid. 

The Green Party from 2007 to 2011 was in coalition with Fianna Fáil. The party suffered a wipeout in the 2011 election, losing all six of its TDs. In the February 2016 election, it returned with just two seats.

Now it has a record 12 seats the GP appears poised to repeat history and blow itself up. Other minors appear more sensible and are resisting the temptation.

46 minutes ago, morrisre said:

Could be wrong but this looks to me to be heading for anithervelection, with SF feilding enough candudates to form a government.

I agree on 2nd Election. For the overwhelming SF vote to be ignored particularly at this poll where SF and FF shared top honours at 37 seats ( FF's 38th  seat held by the Speaker so uncontested) any Government that excludes SF will be as unstable as quicksand even if it is formed, quite aside from public reaction seeing the party with the majority vote sidelined.

This second election prospect one would think make any minor party think twice assisting a FF/FG coalition with that wipeout happening sooner than later.

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4 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

If you want to be selective in your real estate area then quite happy to be selective 

JD Sports Fashion (LSE:JD.) and Ashtead (LSE:AHT) represent the stock market buys of the decade after returns of 3,220% and 2,870% eclipsed the performance of a clutch of high-yielding housebuilding stocks.

So equity versus equity and yeild comparisons now, a direct and the specific RE ownership and trading event ignored. Yes that post accords with MIP's Law for posting/trolling. 

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1 hour ago, morrisre said:

Ff seem to feel they can scair monger people to an alternative outcome. They seem to be saying that SF ecconomucs are objectionable. Who out of the people who voted SF will be put off by tge idea of the well off paying more tax? Not many i guess.

To be precise it appears fuck all. This poll says 65% want SF either in Govt now (49%) or via a second election (16%). So what do FF and FG do with their 28%???

Fuck the voters.. let's shoot ourselves in the stomach, not painlessly to the head and bleed out slowly to an inevitable death.

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On 2/15/2020 at 9:11 AM, jack_sparrow said:

Rishi Sunak challenged to provide more details about his former career as a City hedge fund manager  before  entering politics...participated in a multimillion -pound tax avoidance scheme.

New chancellor Rishi Sunak challenged over hedge fund past

So we have that for the new Chancellor and now this for the new AG.

Suella Braverman the new Attorney General is a member of a  religious sect which continues to venerate its founder despite well-documented claims that he was a serial sexual predator.

Looks like Cummings didn't vet the CV's of his new tea boy and girl very well.

The Observer saying a role for Andrew next?

Attorney general Suella Braverman belongs to controversial Buddhist sect

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"General acceptance of EU law" to get a FTA. WTF. That's 2016 tosh. No-one has a FTA with the EU that does that and the EU isn't seeking it.

It is many of his ilk from Johnson down who haven't yet grasped that 500 million people put their interests ahead of 46% of UK voters and feel sorry for the rest. If the UK Govt want to blow up its own economy, jobs, food security and standards, then the the more they are maligned with spin like this, the more the don't care.

This anti EU narrative for at least half the UK is worn out. All they think now is "You broke it, you own it."

 

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^^^^ As far as I can see Owen Paterson a member of the ERG is part of a small army of Brexiteers that are clearly under some form of direction to flood social media with shitfuckery.

The one above and those below are typical. They prolifically grab right wing - think tank publications and repackage them like robots. Fuck they might be bots....never thought of that. Ha ha.

Some obvious Brexiteers like this from Facts4EU, and then some not obvious as eurosceptics supporters like Capex.co (owned by the Centre for Policy Studies founded by Thatcher) or Global Vision UK launched post the referendum by Ruth Lee and Lord Blackwell ex Tory MP and Chairman of Loyds. Both with very right wing but strong real life economic backgrounds and no dummies. As a senior civil servant Lee was sacked by a Labour Govt to amplify the point.

The interesting thing is that the current approach to a FTA by the Johnson Government is now not lining up with the original policies of some of those think tanks. Some have gone into hibernation as a result, but these haven't. Why and how??

For instance Global Vision UK supports (or used to support) a Switzland style deal for the UK. Switzland has a truckload of bilateral treaties incl adopting some EU law provisions, is part of the Schengen Area and pays a fee in order to participate in the EU's Single Market. While still having the Swiss Franc is fixed against the Euro and the "euro is de facto" is widely accepted.

However the ERG controlled/Cummings enabled Johnson Government would even mouth the words Swiss Deal in a fit, let alone consider adopting it.

That Swiss policy approach is now swept under the carpet by Global Vision UK to desperately give traction to the Government's media shitfuckery and amplified by this idiot Paterson.

This was understandable maybe pre 31 January fearing Johnson might fuck Brexit up, but now when there is no "rewind button" why bother?

It gives some credence to the view that providing Brexit is done and what ever form, the level of right wing fantatism is so strong, fuck the consequences for the nation

 

 

 

 

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^^^^^^ see here where Global Vision UK Swiss Deal sits on Barniers staircase shows how untenable that position is today.

Then again they are not the first to tumble down the stairs. UKIP/Farage was the 2nd top step - Norway ...along with Johnson and many in Cabinet like Truss. That is one serious fall to the bottom at Canada ....but then rolling outside the front door, over the WTO footpath into the middle of the street, alone and cold. 

Nothing stopping the UK walking inside and back up a few flights pretending they never fell. Afterall whose to know?

Half the poor bastards who voted Tory don't even know it is a two-story house they voted to leave.

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