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Brexit WTF, WTF

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^^^^ Wayne you are an ignore line...and you are a miserable grubby cunt with your covid respirator mocking of me where you chased me to a covid thread for the express purpose to do that.

Speaking Express ...up to its Brexit shitfuckery again giving Tory MP Owen Paterson a megaphone to tell shit.

- No mention British boats were trying to get scallops inside French territorial waters in Seine Bay.

- No mention that area closed off to French fisherman in summer.

- No mention they were there due to a "no-take" zones in their traditional local fishing grounds such as Lyme Bay.

- No mention it was also a French Small Boats versus industrial/freezers fitted scale larger Brit boats dredging scallops leaving seabed a ploughed field and taking in one day a small French boat takes in weeks.

- No mention of those Brit boats trying to rely on EU to access to their prey nor the EU's single market where they sell everyone of those scallops.

EU fisheries war: How French fishermen were derided for 'hypocrisy in the extreme!

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Let Wayne go, he even did not follow the link...

On the other hand one of the reasons UK would bloom after Brexit was, with AI, financial services and low wage production;
UK life sciences....... for years Brexiteers were shouting on about how great that sector of the economy is. Where are they now ? They had to listen to a PM who announced “Operation Last Gasp”. There is potential in that field, but the politicians are not really using them. PHE bureaucratic handling stuffs them (not possible to blame on the EU) And new research is moving to the EU due to Brexit.
And all those ventilator promises, just ask, are they for IC or will they never see that sector ?

 

This all shows the border in The Irish Sea must be able to be closed off by the EU unilateral in emergencies. Written in law.

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And how the UK politicians keeps on hiding the truth;

Nadine Dorries; Something with health and in the governement;
As you know, Severin Schwann, CEO of Roche said the supply chain cannot match the demand. Reagents is a broad term for a specific set of a number of complex niche chemicals.

-----------------------------------------
That Roche  reagent is not patented, but Roche kept the exact formula secret, labs can make it. But they prefer to know how Roche made it.
Two days of pressure from Dutch government and a call to the owner of Roche by a Dutch ex DSM head honcho, they gave away the exact formula and how they produce it.
Now the problem here is more the parts needed, swaps, stands, etc. Chemicals are there enough. Here 80% of the machines are from Roche.

Problem described;
https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/roche-urged-to-share-info-with-dutch-corona-test-labs-ftm/

From Roche itselfs, in Dutch, but Deepl or google will help.

https://www.roche.nl/nl/covid-19/roche-diagnostics-nederland-overlegt-met-ministerie-en-rivm-over.html

After that most EU countries with Roche machines are working together on materials. Except the UK.

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

^^^^ Wayne you are an ignore line...and you are a miserable grubby cunt with your covid respirator mocking of me where you chased me to a covid thread for the express purpose to do that.

Oh poor wee Jack beens taking a bit of a kicking over on the Aus Coronavira thread, already been labelled as " Whacko Jacko ", tough crowd over there who seemed to have sussed you already. Did I mock you for not buying a ventilator, nope, you had been throwing a lot of shit at a lot of politicians for not being ahead of the game in ventilators and I was asking why you yourself who almost certainly will need one if you catch Covid - 19 had not done so.

Jack I am quite happy to leave you over there, as it distracts your copious amount of repeat bollocks here somewhat. But having been following the Aus thread from the moment it started ( I do have a specific interest in how Australia fairs with Covit-19 ), which was before you made your many submissions, I was somewhat surprised to see you plagiarise data and a line of thread that I had written on another Coronavira thread, it mildly amused me in someways for all the shit you throw at me for having just a differing opinion than you, you then use my musing to support your own rhetoric.

I'll leave you guys with what another poster wrote about Jack

Jeeesus Jacko.

Steady on.

You appear to be pounding the fuck out of your keyboard.

I'm surprised it still works.

Why post shit like this? quote "Really go tell that to those with kids..young and middle aged parents who have it ..hope you get it cunt " unquote

Obviously you are scared , being in the susceptible age demographic, but posting crap like this makes you look like a goose.

 

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14 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

" Oh, on that mask;
Damen Shipyards with Tu Delft and hospitals made this; 25 March.
https://www.air-wave.org/"

You want portability guys, not tied to air lines and large air compressors. In today's battery tool world and large manufacturers with extensive production facilities for battery tools then you have to go down that route

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/26/dyson-and-gtech-answer-uk-call-for-ventilator-design-and-production-to-support-covid-19-response/

Gtech’s team developed a ventilator that can be made from parts easily obtained from abundant stock materials, or off-the-shelf pre-assembled parts. The company says that it can spin up production of around 100 per day within a week or two, so long as it can source steel fabrication and CNC machining suppliers.

In addition to its own production capacity, Gtech is making its ventilator designs available for free to the broader community in order to ramp production. The company says that “there’s no reason why thousands of emergency ventilators can’t be made each day” in this way, according to an interview with Grey and CTV News.

It’s a shame Dyson are hogging a big chunk of the publicity, especially as Gtech started earlier, irrespective of the politics involved. 

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26 minutes ago, mad said:

It’s a shame Dyson are hogging a big chunk of the publicity, especially as Gtech started earlier, irrespective of the politics involved. 

There are others involved as well Mad, when your sales of tools fall off a cliff, wise CEOs move production by adapting known technology to other needed items.

It staggers me how incompetent our civil service is, the media constantly attacks the ruling government when they are just the figure heads, the numpties who have largely never had a real job in their lives, its the next layers down who should be taking the flack, the NHS logistics manager, the sourcing departments, the transport departments all have been shown to be wanting.

Ventilators, it wouldn't take much of an organiser to take a known design such as already used in the NHS and would already have blueprints and simply dividing the components out to the literally thousands of small engineering business's who are presently sitting idle. My mate has 3 CNC multi head lathes which crank out widgets as fast as you can feed them with stock, 30000 widgets in 48 hours would be chicken feed. Multiply that out over say 300 small engineering companies and you would be surprised how many ventilators could be built in a very short time. Instead they will talk to the likes of Dyson and racing car companies who are not set up for this type of manufacturing.

We just need to use a bit of logistics and clear thinking about this.

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You are great in over simplifying stuff. It is not the hardware that is the problem, though it is tricky enough to produce faultless parts.
It is the monitoring of the patient and so the software. It is the reason building those machines is highly regulated. A few parts leading to faulty sensor readings or computer code that are off and you better let the patient die.
And the software is why you do not need so many healthcare personnel to monitor the patients, though you need a lot of them for medication and rolling over of patients.

It is fucking easy to build a million ventilators, hand powered.
All that Dyson stuff looks like it is not for critical IC ...
 

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40 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

There are others involved as well Mad, when your sales of tools fall off a cliff, wise CEOs move production by adapting known technology to other needed items.

It staggers me how incompetent our civil service is, the media constantly attacks the ruling government when they are just the figure heads, the numpties who have largely never had a real job in their lives, its the next layers down who should be taking the flack, the NHS logistics manager, the sourcing departments, the transport departments all have been shown to be wanting.

Ventilators, it wouldn't take much of an organiser to take a known design such as already used in the NHS and would already have blueprints and simply dividing the components out to the literally thousands of small engineering business's who are presently sitting idle. My mate has 3 CNC multi head lathes which crank out widgets as fast as you can feed them with stock, 30000 widgets in 48 hours would be chicken feed. Multiply that out over say 300 small engineering companies and you would be surprised how many ventilators could be built in a very short time. Instead they will talk to the likes of Dyson and racing car companies who are not set up for this type of manufacturing.

We just need to use a bit of logistics and clear thinking about this.

The budget and the orders come from above, the civil service is not a self-governing autonomous entity.  
 

No cash, no splash.

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Whyne has a hell of a lot of imaginary play mates....

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Imagen there was no Brexit, and this crises is going on. Would you start a Brexit process ? Nope, not now.
BJ is held hostage by his; get Brexit done. Almost all of his Brexit focused civil service is now working on Covid.

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1 minute ago, LeoV said:

Imagen there was no Brexit, and this crises is going on. Would you start a Brexit process ? Nope, not now.
BJ is held hostage by his; get Brexit done. Almost all of his Brexit focused civil service is now working on Covid.

They’ll probably just blunder on regardless with Brexit with what’s left of the civil service, they were losing staff before this latest global mess.

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End June we will know.

I am amazed that Dorries; MP and Health Minister for Patient Safety, Suicide Prevention & MH. is spending so much time on twitter, and it is her personally.
Should she not be working ?

 

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43 minutes ago, cms said:

Whyne has a hell of a lot of imaginary play mates....

Nope, anybody mentioned here by me is in real life, unlike the computer world a lot of you seem to inhabit.

1 hour ago, LeoV said:

You are great in over simplifying stuff. It is not the hardware that is the problem, though it is tricky enough to produce faultless parts.
It is the monitoring of the patient and so the software. It is the reason building those machines is highly regulated. A few parts leading to faulty sensor readings or computer code that are off and you better let the patient die.

That's incorrect Leo, you obviously haven't been involved in engineering or electronics recently. CNC's at the sort of level I'm talking about will create 100% of the time to a far higher tolerance than what is needed for this type of equipment, it is pretty basic stuff and not nuclear quality . The equipment if following an existing machine is already track tested and proven and any manufacturing faults would already be known about. Its the initial regulation of a new machine in health which costs, not the following numbers built.

Software at machine level is very different to that on your computer. Today's code is written with a lot of self diagnostics to enable poorly trained technicians to fault find, almost certainly any sensors will constantly be monitored by the machine for fault. Again if following an existing machines design, that code has been track tested.

If you don't build these machines by looking at your computer and saying we can't, then 100% patients are going to die, if 0.5% fail ( which is the maximum failure rate you would work to in this type of industry ) then lets get building and yes you may run the risk of potentially 0.5% may fail or perhaps none will fail at all.

An article by your favoured source the Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/23/carmakers-make-nhs-ventilators-coronavirus-uk-government-nissan-rolls-royce

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If it was that simple Philips, Drager, Siemens etc were now producing millions of them.

If your initial design is wrong your cnc mate has 40.000 wrong parts.

And yes engineering is no problem for me, as does G code, but no electronics for me.

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6 minutes ago, LeoV said:

If it was that simple Philips, Drager, Siemens etc were now producing millions of them.

If your initial design is wrong your cnc mate has 40.000 wrong parts.

And yes engineering is no problem for me, as does G code, but no electronics for me.

But these are proven designs, all the CNC code for the machine is known, all the individual parts are known, all the construction techniques are known, whats the problem other than how much each machine is going to cost by the major manufacturers and the royalties charged. One thing for sure if we say make 30000 for the NHS, there's going to be few sales for the likes of Phillips of ventilators in the next 20 years.

One thing may come out of this, if independents are allowed to manufacture them, the busting of the myth because of its health, of how much major companies charge for them.

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The problem is not by the simple parts, hell, a million cnc machines can build them. And I can operate one of them.

it is in the sensors, software and electrotechnical hardware. it is not a hair dryer or a vacuum cleaner.

You sir are a simplist. Look into medtronic files, Medtronic.com/openventilator and check each part, and availability of each part, and checking capability of said part, and people to assemble them, and check them. This is a simple ambulance style machine. The big guys are ramping up production as much as possible for the IC units.

That outer casing JBL showed I can draw in 15 minutes. What goes in it is the problem.

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listened to the BBC to day interview some medical chief in the USA stating historically less than 50% of the people who end up on a ventilator survive and so far with the wuhan virus its the same...

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1 hour ago, LeoV said:

The problem is not by the simple parts, hell, a million cnc machines can build them. And I can operate one of them.

it is in the sensors, software and electrotechnical hardware. it is not a hair dryer or a vacuum cleaner.

You sir are a simplist. Look into medtronic files, Medtronic.com/openventilator and check each part, and availability of each part, and checking capability of said part, and people to assemble them, and check them. This is a simple ambulance style machine. The big guys are ramping up production as much as possible for the IC units.

That outer casing JBL showed I can draw in 15 minutes. What goes in it is the problem.

A quick look at the files and there's not much on what sensors etc are used, largely covers electrical leads, fans etc. Kudos to them if they are going to open it up to the world as they look to be doing. We need more of such companies doing this. 

Sometimes being a simplist solves problems more rapidly than looking at a computer and thinking I can't. Every work day for me is solving problems of one kind or another, you get used to it and you get creative. There's literally millions of " me " around the world, its just how best to utilise that talent.

I think you maybe along with an awful lot of the world, think that this is a problem rather than how we solve the problem.

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39 minutes ago, Sailabout said:

listened to the BBC to day interview some medical chief in the USA stating historically less than 50% of the people who end up on a ventilator survive and so far with the wuhan virus its the same...

Survival to discharge data from non-ICU, non-acute care hospital weaning centers are varied, and range between 50%–94%. One year post discharge survival is reported between 23% and 53% with 3 year reported data between 25% and 56%.48 Morbidity among survivors is high.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3091409/

But hey this is not Brexit, WTO here we come.

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10 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

Survival to discharge data from non-ICU, non-acute care hospital weaning centers are varied, and range between 50%–94%. One year post discharge survival is reported between 23% and 53% with 3 year reported data between 25% and 56%.48 Morbidity among survivors is high.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3091409/

But hey this is not Brexit, WTO here we come.

:wacko:

How does that tie in to that subject?

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7 minutes ago, mad said:

:wacko:

How does that tie in to that subject?

It was in response to Sailabout's quick side step.

Lets confine this thread to purely Brexit.

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Just now, Waynemarlow said:

It was in response to Sailabout's quick side step.

Lets confine this thread to purely Brexit.

Unfortunately, the 2 subjects are hugely intertwined, ventilators and EU purchasing being a good example.

Quote

Coronavirus: Boris Johnson urged to explain 'ideological' refusal of EU help buying medical equipment

 

Procurement scheme uses bulk-buying power of 500 million strong single market

 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-boris-johnson-eu-medical-equipment-brexit-latest-a9428401.html

 Any comments?

 

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Can't really comment as I know only what the papers and media have been whining on about.

I can surmise that if we had to go via the

NHS - NHS procurement - government procurement - agree terms with the EU - agree prices with contractors - back to 28 countries to agree prices - agree terms and conditions with contractors - agree and place contractor order, argue over who gets what numbers in what order between 28 countries, deliver to UK - deliver to NHS

may be a lot longer in time and a lot of lives lost, than if we went 

NHS - NHS procurement - government procurement - agree terms and conditions with contractors - agree and place contractor order,  build in UK - deliver to NHS

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18 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

It was in response to Sailabout's quick side step.

Lets confine this thread to purely Brexit.

spend the money elsewhere not on ventilators, I think is the message in that its only 50% effective

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1 hour ago, Waynemarlow said:

 

Sometimes being a simplist solves problems more rapidly than looking at a computer and thinking I can't.

not in this case, any bright mind can come up with a design based on commonly available parts, but we're talking about  critical medical equipment, whole different ballgame, must be checked, tested, approved to levels that are a bit beyond your simplicissimus state of mind

as an example, at Brussels university they have a lab called Fablab, it's in the engineering dept. specialised in robotics, lateral thinking and plain nerdyness, but they are very connected to industry, already a couple of weeks ago they said they have designed an el cheapo simple ventilator based on available parts. BUT, and there goes your theory, they were adamant that it needed check, trial, feedback and most importantly, approval.Lives are on the line, that's the game. To that end they have made a number which are now being used (along with other ventilators) at the university hospital (one of the biggest in town, huge).  One development that I was hearing today was that one of the prime parts is a wiper motor from Volvo cars, but after check and discussion they have now received 1000 motors from Volvo trucks ... trucks being built for heavier duty.

When asked if they could deliver in time, answer was that they think it's a matter of weeks, pending approval, but that they think it will be very interesting for area's like Africa.

 

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17 minutes ago, Albatros said:

not in this case, any bright mind can come up with a design based on commonly available parts, but we're talking about  critical medical equipment, whole different ballgame, must be checked, tested, approved to levels that are a bit beyond your simplicissimus state of mind

as an example, at Brussels university they have a lab called Fablab, it's in the engineering dept. specialised in robotics, lateral thinking and plain nerdyness, but they are very connected to industry, already a couple of weeks ago they said they have designed an el cheapo simple ventilator based on available parts. BUT, and there goes your theory, they were adamant that it needed check, trial, feedback and most importantly, approval.Lives are on the line, that's the game. To that end they have made a number which are now being used (along with other ventilators) at the university hospital (one of the biggest in town, huge).  One development that I was hearing today was that one of the prime parts is a wiper motor from Volvo cars, but after check and discussion they have now received 1000 motors from Volvo trucks ... trucks being built for heavier duty.

When asked if they could deliver in time, answer was that they think it's a matter of weeks, pending approval, but that they think it will be very interesting for area's like Africa.

 

At the end of the day, if a person is going to die without a ventilator and there's one sitting there in the corner without approval and every other unit is being used , what are you going to do, yup use it and worry about the approval when we all have a bit more time to worry about such things.

Aren't you supporting me in that the students have with a bit of lateral thinking, gone and designed and built a ventilator out of common parts ( Volvo ) in just a few weeks. Now within the next few weeks they will trial it alongside proven ventilators and once in a field trial they are happy its working, they will put it into production. Whats not to like about that.

Ask a medical company to do the same, it would take months and months and probably cost 100 times what that bit of lateral thinking cost, its going to be all over by then.

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4 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

At the end of the day, if a person is going to die without a ventilator and there's one sitting there in the corner without approval and every other unit is being used , what are you going to do, yup use it and worry about the approval when we all have a bit more time to worry about such things.

...

On this point I’m inclined to agree with Wayne.

 

If I were in government I’d rapidly pass legislation allowing the appropriate subject matter experts to give interim approval and waiver of liability for equipment that could supplement properly certified equipment.

The lower certification standard equipment would be the last to deploy and the first to retire based on need/availability of equipment. Of course you’d brief patients of the higher risk of the equipment (and get their “informed consent”). Even if some failures occured their would be net savings in lives.

This is akin to aircraft in time or crisis/war. In normal times if any critical equipment is less than certain the plane stays on the ground. In times of major conflict...if it can liftoff it pretty much gets deployed.

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1 minute ago, KC375 said:

 

 

 

 

This is akin to aircraft in time or crisis/war. In normal times if any critical equipment is less than certain the plane stays on the ground. In times of major conflict...if it can liftoff it pretty much gets deployed.

 

not if a defective ventilator kills 99% of the people it is hooked up to.  might be more akin to a plane with no fuel.

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13 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

not if a defective ventilator kills 99% of the people it is hooked up to

Which is why you ask an appropriate subject matter expert to do the interim approval.

Clearly there needs to be some judgement involved in deciding where along the curve the device fits from proof of concept through to robustly trialed and fully certifiable.

Equally clearly this would provide higher risk of equipment failure that would have to be balanced against the certainty of deaths in the even no fully certified ventilators available.

There are also implementation procedures you could do to reduce risk. For example have the less certain equipment deployed with an attendant ready to do manual ventilation if needed. Assuming the equipment is assessed by an appropriate subject matter expert the likelihood of failure per hour would be low making the likelihood of multiple units failing at once very low.

BVM-components.jpg

In a crisis it is about the least bad outcome not the best possible standard of care as that is not possible.

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It seems to me that the major manufacturers are already building simpler ventilators in addition to the complex machines.
Looking through an EN interview with the Stefan Dräger, chairman of Drägerwerk.
When SHTF in Wuhan China ordered ventilators and Dräger build them 400 per week. China wanted a simple type, wall power, integrated oxygen concentration, optional oxygen from a bottle. Chances are that other vendors got a similar order at the same time.

The interview goes deeper into the topic. For example Dräger is not selling very complex machines to every hospital. They require specific training and this is not the time to do that. Better to distribute/sell models that the staff is already trained on.
Also this: "The parts come from all over the world. [...] If someone decides to disrupt them, there will no longer be any ventilators, for anyone." As previously mentioned Trump had some interesting ideas that thankfully got shut down real fast.

That is where the EU scheme comes into play.
It is a chance for centralized buying so that there is less of a bidding war. Coordinated sourcing of parts, giving ventilator companies priority over other uses and making sure that parts don't get stuck at a border or even confiscated. But also simple stuff like guaranteed buys. As long as the company delivers as contracted it will get paid.
Under the scheme it should be easier to coordinate parts supply between ventilator companies - without instantly running into antitrust laws. After all may not be the best idea to gear up for the mass production of some ventilator models only to find out in week three that several companies selected a type the same part made by a single company. Esp. when other models use different parts.

So far it seems like additional companies are brought into the manufacturing process of a existing model while critical processes like Q&A are still within the ventilator company. To me that makes a hell of a lot more sense than developing so damn many new models.

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41 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

not if a defective ventilator kills 99% of the people it is hooked up to.  might be more akin to a plane with no fuel.

Oh well you saved 1% as without anything, 100% are goner die.

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Just now, Waynemarlow said:

Oh well you saved 1% as without anything, 100% are goner die.

Not if 2% of those with no ventilator at all would have lived. Then you killed 1%.

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This is a quick grab multi quote and I can see Wayne as quoted;

Wayne

7 hours ago, mad said:

It’s a shame Dyson are hogging a big chunk of the publicity, especially as Gtech started earlier, irrespective of the politics involved. 

Wayne

6 hours ago, LeoV said:

You are great in over simplifying stuff. It is not the hardware that is the problem,

It is fucking easy to build a million ventilators, hand powered.
All that Dyson stuff looks like it is not for critical IC ...
 

 

6 hours ago, mad said:

The budget and the orders come from above, the civil service is not a self-governing autonomous entity.  
 

No cash, no splash.

 

5 hours ago, LeoV said:

If it was that simple Philips, Drager, Siemens etc were now producing millions of them....

 

4 hours ago, LeoV said:

The problem is not by the simple parts, hell, a million cnc machines can build them. And I can operate one of them.it..

 

2 hours ago, Sailabout said:

spend the money elsewhere not on ventilators, I think is the message in that its only 50% effective

Gents you are missing the woods for the trees.

 Fact: The UK lacks today, health care infrastructure capacity, staff, ventilators, personal protective equipment and testing kits to deal with a pandemic.

Fact: Emergency procedures for manufacturers of equipment and upgrading  hospital capacity and testing etc is only a very recent development and at best described as shambolic.

Fact: The UK like many countries has a Pandemic Emergency Plan along with many other plans such as Nuclear attack, fuel shortages etc and for each their risk profile rated in terms of probability.

QUESTION.

In view of the above why is everything being improvised on the fly to deal with a pandemic highlighted in January that it was coming with a long standing Pandemic Emergency Plan in place? For instance no testing kits in stock so testing wasn't started until 1 March, slow to ramp up and today one month later still struggling?

Other countries have had testing kits galore and have somehow in the blink of eye tripled their ICU with ventilators capacity with none of this pandamonium, albeit still struggling with what they perceive demand? Some countries are in the same boat or worse than the UK.

ANSWER

The Pandemic Emergency Plan is over a decade old and the response was limited to "mitigation" only where the pandemic would run its course and it was accepted health care services would be swamped and a high loss of life would occur. That figure is eye watering. A low cost strategy essentialy designed to both preserve the economy and justify health care budget constraints. For instance under a Pandemic "mitigation" strategy limited to personal hygiene and isolating those at risk, there is no need for large scale test/tracing as required by a "suppression" strategy.

The Pandemic Emergency Plan was maintained until 16 March when upon updated fatality projections were revealed, the Govt shat their pants and abandoned it for a high cost "suppression" strategy.

At all times when Johnson said in the past and says today the Government have been relying upon scientific advice he is telling the truth, by ommision. What he didn't say was the fatality count in that advice which formulated the Governments  Pandemic Emergency Plan was a political decision.

The decision to switch strategies was a political decision not scientific. The Government's scientific advisors role is only questionable in that they gave support to it not being a switch in strategy but a continuation of or extension of an existing plan or strategy. That is false.

Hence today pandamonium having to deal with a pandemic response never ever contemplated in the standing Pandemic Emergency Plan.

Support to the above sits in Westminister Special Committee hearings etc going back prior to the Cameron Administration and is on the public record.

One day someone will go looking.

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1 minute ago, MR.CLEAN said:

Not if 2% of those with no ventilator at all would have lived. Then you killed 1%.

Ah but you don't know what your odds would be without beforehand, if a nurse came up and said you have a maximum 2% chance of survival on your own buddy, or we can hitch you up to a machine that will give at worst 1% but up to 50% ( as that it would seem the odds is, once you go on a ventilator ), which would you take ?

But you haven't yet taken into account the 4 weeks of negotiation the EU is going to do on your behalf to see if they can get the price down a bit.

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1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

 Fact: The UK lacks today, health care infrastructure capacity, staff, ventilators, personal protective equipment and testing kits to deal with a pandemic.

Ah, you are speaking about the world aren't you not just the UK ?

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2 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

Ah but you don't know what your odds would be without beforehand,

that's why you have tests and approvals

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1 minute ago, MR.CLEAN said:

that's why you have tests and approvals

In the time it takes to get those, 200K have died from the lack of ventilators, the pandemic is nearing the end and once fully approved, are worthless as the world is full of ventilators that every man and his dog has built, used and now discarded.

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21 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

One day someone will go looking.

It'll only be you, Stephen Kinnock  ( chairman of the EU Select committee, after he has driven 400 miles in a round journey to deliver essential supplies to his multi millionaire parents ) and the Guardian newspaper ( if it hasn't gone bust by then ) Do you honestly think that MP's from both sides of the house are going to expose their incompetence at all levels, not likely.

 

image.png.f3df63b21738cb5f1c6907c5fa59962c.png

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/29/stephen-kinnock-targeted-by-police-for-visiting-father-neil

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34 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Fact: The UK lacks today, health care infrastructure capacity, staff, ventilators, personal protective equipment and testing kits to deal with a pandemic.

 

31 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

Ah, you are speaking about the world aren't you not just the UK ?

Try reading on before getting your dick all wet.

34 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Fact: The UK like many countries has a Pandemic  Emergency Plan along with many other plans such  as Nuclear attack, fuel shortages etc and for each their  risk profile rated in terms of probability.

QUESTION.

In view of the above why is everything being improvised on the fly to deal with a pandemic highlighted in January that it was coming with a long standing Pandemic Emergency Plan in place? For instance no testing kits in stock so testing wasn't started until 1 March, slow to ramp up and today one month later still struggling?

Other countries have had testing kits galore and have somehow in the blink of eye tripled their ICU with ventilators capacity with none of this pandamonium, albeit still struggling with what they perceive demand? Some countries are in the same boat or worse than the UK.

Ogh see you did read on but didn't like that bit

34 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

One day someone will go looking.

 

15 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

Do you honestly think that MP's from both sides of the house are going to expose their incompetence at all levels, not likely.

Stop exposure??? You miss the bit on it is already on the public record that anyone can access, even you.

34 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Support to the above sits in Westminister Special Committee hearings etc going back prior to the Cameron Administration and is on the public record.

A grub and stupid is not a good combination.

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1 hour ago, KC375 said:

On this point I’m inclined to agree with Wayne.

 

 

 

If I were in government I’d rapidly pass legislation allowing the appropriate subject matter experts to give interim approval and waiver of liability for equipment that could supplement properly certified equipment.

 

The lower certification standard equipment would be the last to deploy and the first to retire based on need/availability of equipment. Of course you’d brief patients of the higher risk of the equipment (and get their “informed consent”). Even if some failures occured their would be net savings in lives.

 

 

 

This is akin to aircraft in time or crisis/war. In normal times if any critical equipment is less than certain the plane stays on the ground. In times of major conflict...if it can liftoff it pretty much gets deployed.

 

in an "all else failed" scenario I'd be on your side, but is that where we are at ? nope, let all those who develop something, and there's lots of them worldwide do their stuff but let's be somewhat careful about saying that anything goes, things are serious but not desperate enough to just go for anything ... snake oil included.

also, having this long standing engineering background too, I think it is dangerous to call for lower certification now, while it is not necessary, and creating one helluva precedent ... I can see people, companies, interested parties crying out that "hey, you lowered specs and it worked (let's hope so), so why raise them now ??"

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52 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

A grub and stupid is not a good combination.

Got your tail from out within your back legs from the dicking you got over on the Aus thread yet ? ;)

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4 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

A quick look at the files and there's not much on what sensors etc are used, l

That is your problem, you do not look in depth. But convinced you can solve a worldwide problem with some Ooomph.
Look deeper in that files and you can find it all. Then check part numbers and try to order them, with the diagnostic tools too. Some electronic chips are not made any more, so a little research for a replacement, and testing needed. If you can get them et all. And this is simple NON IC one.

At the time Dyson and others are playing around with critical parts a normal producer can use better they are fucking killing people.

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50 minutes ago, Albatros said:

in an "all else failed" scenario I'd be on your side, but is that where we are at ? nope, let all those who develop something, and there's lots of them worldwide do their stuff but let's be somewhat careful about saying that anything goes, things are serious but not desperate enough to just go for anything ... snake oil included.

also, having this long standing engineering background too, I think it is dangerous to call for lower certification now, while it is not necessary, and creating one helluva precedent ... I can see people, companies, interested parties crying out that "hey, you lowered specs and it worked (let's hope so), so why raise them now ??"

I’ve previously in this or another thread suggested that the first step is (much as @Chasm suggested) is debottlenecking existing production capability and lining up support behind that. If that is underway then I’ve no objection in parallel looking at building alternatives including lower certification standards (which as I pointed out should be an interim certification).

Given the steepness of the curve if you wait until it is clear you’ve run out of machines...the delay is literally fatal for some. If it is clear production of established machines can ramp beyond need then stick with that but don’t wait until that fails to add additional options.

It seems to me this is a case where having a few thousand excess to needs machines hanging around is not an over investment. If some of those machines where produced to a lower standard / interim standard then junk them after you are sure you don’t need them or test them to the higher standard and keep them if they pass. ... as to the "hey, you lowered specs and it worked (let's hope so), so why raise them now ??"

Two potential answers:

1.       Yes we will accept your making to those lower specs machines that will only be allowed into circulation if all higher spec machines have been deployed. (good luck finding a market for that outside of a crisis) or;

2.       Go suck on a lemon; if the lower spec machines can’t meet the appropriate unrestricted certification then re-engineer them until they do.

A general observation about certification standards. There is always lobbying one way or the other around them and regulators are pretty used to the noise / filtering the lobbying from the genuine input.

There are two strong trends that tend towards higher standards. The desire to reduce liability / risks both the actual incidences and the cost of insurance coverage. The other – usually unstated – driver is that the higher the standards the higher the barrier to entry which tends to increase profitability of producers already over that barrier. So the big players tend to support very high, often excessive standards.

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2 hours ago, KC375 said:

For example have the less certain equipment deployed with an attendant ready to do manual ventilation if needed.

As  I said before you can produce  1 million of these, but need  4 million people  to handle them... there are not enough people or even protection or even tests to check all those.
If that stage occurs you better led them die alone, as your millions of handlers will spread the virus even quicker.

You have ambulance, normal lung care and IC ventilators. I hear Dyson is going for 1 or 2, not IC stuff.

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KC, everyone is looking into that. It keeps returning the fact that a simplified machine is better, not a lower standard one. You have already lower standards in Ambu.Lungcare IC.
But still the software to run it automagically and warn on the right time is tough and depends on hardware, and that is what they need in IC.

Albatross, I did volunteer work for a FabLab. Nerds galore. My machine was the laser cutter.

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Oh and they do not use the lower standard one on IC because it does a lot of damage to the lungs, so much they are to scared to use it for now.
First more people on the same IC unit, then lower standards ones, then nothing.

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3 hours ago, Chasm said:

That is where the EU scheme comes into play.
It is a chance for centralized buying so that there is less of a bidding war. Coordinated sourcing of parts, giving ventilator companies priority over other uses and making sure that parts don't get stuck at a border or even confiscated. But also simple stuff like guaranteed buys. As long as the company delivers as contracted it will get paid.

Yep, and the EU had to use a lot of power already to keep the trade in the parts flowing. Even in the Philippines a factory was asked to restart, and they did. All on ambassador level. You do not order by the EU, but they facilitate. Wayne is so wrong, again.

But hey, a country led by a few dishonest journalists and lawyers... what can you expect.

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And today the good ole US of A gazumped the French and "stole" a plane load of masks, ready loaded and about to take off from a Chinese airport. Big $ cash payment.

Good example of working together to save people.

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1 hour ago, LeoV said:

Just watched a 44 min doc on the telly that only was shot inside IC for a few days, no politics, just doctors nurses and patients talking.
https://www.npostart.nl/levenslucht-een-week-op-de-ic-tijdens-corona/01-04-2020/BV_101398849

Simple machines will not cut it.

Thanks Leo:

Dit programma mag niet bekeken worden vanaf jouw locatie (33)

Are they part of the SailGP mob?

Die NPO hufters kennen de pleuris krijgen!

(Excuse my bad language).

Anyway, the official machines don't seem to save a lot of people either, I am afraid.

 

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8 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Gents you are missing the woods for the trees.

 Fact: The UK lacks today, health care infrastructure capacity, staff, ventilators, personal protective equipment and testing kits to deal with a pandemic.

Fact: Emergency procedures for manufacturers of equipment and upgrading  hospital capacity and testing etc is only a very recent development and at best described as shambolic.

Fact: The UK like many countries has a Pandemic Emergency Plan along with many other plans such as Nuclear attack, fuel shortages etc and for each their risk profile rated in terms of probability.

QUESTION.

In view of the above why is everything being improvised on the fly to deal with a pandemic highlighted in January that it was coming with a long standing Pandemic Emergency Plan in place? For instance no testing kits in stock so testing wasn't started until 1 March, slow to ramp up and today one month later still struggling?

Other countries have had testing kits galore and have somehow in the blink of eye tripled their ICU with ventilators capacity with none of this pandamonium, albeit still struggling with what they perceive demand? Some countries are in the same boat or worse than the UK.

ANSWER

The Pandemic Emergency Plan is over a decade old and the response was limited to "mitigation" only where the pandemic would run its course and it was accepted health care services would be swamped and a high loss of life would occur. That figure is eye watering. A low cost strategy essentialy designed to both preserve the economy and justify health care budget constraints. For instance under a Pandemic "mitigation" strategy limited to personal hygiene and isolating those at risk, there is no need for large scale test/tracing as required by a "suppression" strategy.

The Pandemic Emergency Plan was maintained until 16 March when upon updated fatality projections were revealed, the Govt shat their pants and abandoned it for a high cost "suppression" strategy.

At all times when Johnson said in the past and says today the Government have been relying upon scientific advice he is telling the truth, by ommision. What he didn't say was the fatality count in that advice which formulated the Governments  Pandemic Emergency Plan was a political decision.

The decision to switch strategies was a political decision not scientific. The Government's scientific advisors role is only questionable in that they gave support to it not being a switch in strategy but a continuation of or extension of an existing plan or strategy. That is false.

Hence today pandamonium having to deal with a pandemic response never ever contemplated in the standing Pandemic Emergency Plan.

Support to the above sits in Westminister Special Committee hearings etc going back prior to the Cameron Administration and is on the public record.

One day someone will go looking.

because when it comes to health care its never about preventative maintenance, thats one huge difference I notice OZ to UK, the uk just doesnt spend till its too late.

Does the uk hand out flu injections and promote it, no ( tight arse's) Gp's only give it to vulnerable people, I'm sure thats a gov directive.

Do you need a dentist, no not till you have holes, Brits teeth being world famous of course....

I did notice that once the ozzies worked out you cant kill those hospital bugs you need to pull the hospital down and rebuilt it, the brits were still stuffing around saying yes we are closing wards and doing deep cleaning, what a joke.

A former colonial master will never take a lesson from a former colony

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Fiji, there are workarounds for that.

Chasm, that 30 are coming from Penlon. Who has been building them for years.
So nothing extra, this output is normal for such a company.
https://www.penlon.com/Product-Groups

UK words are now as valuable as the toilet paper in hoarders closets.. Nada.

Politico;

Johnson tried to get ahead of things last night with another homemade video on Twitter. From his quarantined office in No. 11, the PM assured viewers that the government is “massively increasing testing.” He went on: “It is so important, and as I’ve said for weeks and weeks, this is the way through. This is how we will unlock the coronavirus puzzle. This is how we will defeat it in the end.”

Reminder: Three weeks ago the U.K. stopped the mass testing of people with COVID-19 symptoms, telling them to stay home and isolate instead. POLITICO’s Ashleigh Furlong has the background on that decision.

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I follow a twitter list;
Some hardcore Brexiteers infuencers went;
Peddling the fake drug claim.
Saying lockdown has to stop for costs.
Starting to criticize the government.

Most in the first two, and Brexit seems not to be that important any more. I wonder if the holy Brexit fire can be rekindled.
 

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7 hours ago, Sailabout said:

because when it comes to health care its never about preventative maintenance, thats one huge difference I notice OZ to UK, the uk just doesnt spend till its too late.

Provided fixed infrastructure incl staffing not too low and right ratio of general and acute care, albeit the UK by world ranking off the pace, that is sufficient backbone for a pandemic response. There are only two responses (apart from doing nothing) in any countries Pandemic Emergency Plan.

1. Mitigation. Low cost high death rate around half that of doing nothing. Limited treatment.

2. Suppresion. High cost and lower death rate around one - tenth max of doing nothing with capacity to treat capable. Requires in storage all of the things attached to suppression starting with large testing capacity to be able to adjust suppression as required. The balance emergency ICU/ventilator capacity, PPE, reserve staff etc in storage all ready to go, third party contracts etc.

The cost of Suppression excluding economic support/stimulus is very easy to calculate. It doesn't necessarily have go include widespread close downs aka Korea todate. It can be used to calculate the value of each citizen comparing death rate for both methods.

The UK's Pandemic Emergency Plan based on Mitigation (before switching to Suppression) put a negligible value against each citizen.

It now seems they have suddenly escalated in value.I don't think Johnson will tell them about their valuation change.

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9 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Some hardcore Brexiteers infuencers went;
Peddling the fake drug claim.
Saying lockdown has to stop for costs.
Starting to criticize the government.

Lockdown biting into Brexit budget.

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From the coal face gents - her indoors did her first day at the hospital yesterday after 12 days absence. She had to burn holidays before end of March.

Infected cases and deaths are much under reported - they have NO adequate and sufficient stock of PPE.  

There is a blanket ban on telling the outside world what the true situation is. Complete non-disclosure.

Looks like government has told the press & NHS that the population cannot handle the truth.... yup ... enter Jack Nicholson.

 

Carry on at will with the discussion of how many men in how many sheds can make medical apparatus - It won't make a blind bit of difference.

Too little, too late.

Stay safe & healthy!

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16 hours ago, Chasm said:

That is where the EU scheme comes into play.
It is a chance for centralized buying so that there is less of a bidding war. Coordinated sourcing of parts, giving ventilator companies priority over other uses and making sure that parts don't get stuck at a border or even confiscated. But also simple stuff like guaranteed buys. As long as the company delivers as contracted it will get paid.
Under the scheme it should be easier to coordinate parts supply between ventilator companies - without instantly running into antitrust laws. After all may not be the best idea to gear up for the mass production of some ventilator models only to find out in week three that several companies selected a type the same part made by a single company. Esp. when other models use different parts.

Exactly, it’s a one-of design and procurement process for many customers, rather than the “every state for itself” procurement process being shown in the US and by the UK. 
Why spend valuable time and resources designing, sourcing parts and building on your own, when there’s a group of others with more buying power and more combined skills??

 

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6 minutes ago, Laser1 said:

Too little, too late.

Stay safe & healthy!

That is the problem with one trick ponies. BoJo might be the man for Brexit. Orange one might be popular with his quips. But I would rather have a proper politician as a leader during a time of crisis. One could hope that electorate remembers what our current leaders did when the Covid hit. But I won't be holding my breath. People like populists, by definition.

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16 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

Ah but you don't know what your odds would be without beforehand, if a nurse came up and said you have a maximum 2% chance of survival on your own buddy, or we can hitch you up to a machine that will give at worst 1% but up to 50% ( as that it would seem the odds is, once you go on a ventilator ), which would you take ?

But you haven't yet taken into account the 4 weeks of negotiation the EU is going to do on your behalf to see if they can get the price down a bit.

Where was this stated please?  
Any cites available?  

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15 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

Do you honestly think that MP's from both sides of the house are going to expose their incompetence at all levels, not likely.

No need, the Conservatives have been and are doing a great job all by themselves, led by a PM who can’t even follow basic distance rules.

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8 hours ago, Chasm said:

Coronavirus: Only 30 British-built ventilators to arrive in NHS next week, government admits

Ain't looking great for that project right now. I thought there were manufacturers in the UK left?
The sad part is that all the incompetence will get swept under the rug as always.

 

Maybe we should partner up with some other countries...........oh yeah, never mind. 

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26 minutes ago, Laser1 said:

There is a blanket ban on telling the outside world what the true situation is. Complete non-disclosure.

Looks like government has told the press & NHS that the population cannot handle the truth..

really.. shocking... i hope it is not true.

Here it is total openness, admitting the numbers can be a off by a little.
This website tells most of it, independent, setup by medical people, way before covid.
https://stichting-nice.nl/

And 30 minutes on TV daily after the news, with only messages from healthcare workers, unfiltered.
Called Front messages. Shot with own phones. Just people battling the virus talking. All aspects, very moving and informative.
https://www.bnnvara.nl/frontberichten

Stay safe....

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8 minutes ago, Laser1 said:

Infected cases and deaths are much under reported - they have NO adequate and sufficient stock of PPE.  

There is a blanket ban on telling the outside world what the true situation is. Complete non-disclosure.

Looks like government has told the press & NHS that the population cannot handle the truth.... yup ... enter Jack Nicholson.

"Mission Impossible Soundtrack"

Laser if your indoors is willing to accept this mission

Under 50's requiring ICU has always been underplayed as it doesn't fit narrative of virus only killing the old and unhealthy and no different than the flu so health care system can cope.

Anecdotal evidence from US and elsewhere is more than 10% at anyone time under 50yo are in/on ICU/Ventilators

Just rough feedback is around 1 in 10 of total in ICU less than 50 yo right or wrong?

Usual MI rules apply ..if she accepts mission and is captured, HQ deny any knowledge or association.

 

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50 minutes ago, Laser1 said:

From the coal face gents - her indoors did her first day at the hospital yesterday after 12 days absence. She had to burn holidays before end of March.

Infected cases and deaths are much under reported - they have NO adequate and sufficient stock of PPE.  

There is a blanket ban on telling the outside world what the true situation is. Complete non-disclosure.

Looks like government has told the press & NHS that the population cannot handle the truth.... yup ... enter Jack Nicholson.

 

Carry on at will with the discussion of how many men in how many sheds can make medical apparatus - It won't make a blind bit of difference.

Too little, too late.

Stay safe & healthy!

I heard exactly the same almost a week ago from a friend who’s a respiratory nurse!!!........I also heard about the government trying to muzzle the frontline medical staff from another.....I’ve donated all my Tyvek suits to her. 

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4 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Just rough feedback is around 1 in 10 of total in ICU less than 50 yo right or wrong?

9 out of a 100 here.

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Do other countries not have a live update from the IC numbers ?
Or a chart how many from your area are in the IC ?

Those numbers are scaring enough people here to behave voluntary very well, after one confusing weekend. For instance we have no church lockdown, but every one stopped meetings. Still a few assholes are still here, but they have trouble to find other assholes to meet up.

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12 hours ago, cms said:

And today the good ole US of A gazumped the French and "stole" a plane load of masks, ready loaded and about to take off from a Chinese airport. Big $ cash payment.

Good example of working together to save people.

Gotta love a free market economy.......it’s dog eat dog time. :ph34r:

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2 hours ago, LeoV said:

. I wonder if the holy Brexit fire can be rekindled.

The Brexit fire has always been fueled with bullshit so shouldn't be too hard to get going. It is not tied to this pesky virus thing ...so ready to sail.

EUi3u7YWAAUHQ2g.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Laser1 said:

From the coal face gents - her indoors did her first day at the hospital yesterday after 12 days absence. She had to burn holidays before end of March.

All holidays cancelled over here too, will be paid out but no one is being allowed time off.

1 hour ago, Laser1 said:

they have NO adequate and sufficient stock of PPE. 

No stock of PPE to get through a normal flu season let alone a pandemic, but still getting some in here unlike some places.

Like Laser1 I only have 3rd hand knowledge but I haven't heard anything about them being suppressed from telling anyone, junior docs might not be "told" in that fashion tho, they don't talk to the press normally.

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US firearm Licence checks up 80% for corresponding period.

Guess they are going to either start shooting the virus or each other. Weirdos.

5084.jpg

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10 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

US firearm Licence checks up 80% for corresponding period.

Guess they are going to either start shooting the virus or each other. Weirdos.

5084.jpg

There’s been a bit of run on ammunition in the UK as well, it’s just not general news. 

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1 minute ago, mad said:

There’s been a bit of run on ammunition in the UK as well, it’s just not general news. 

 

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1 minute ago, JonRowe said:

 

:P
Not just the farmers. 

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Didn't imagine ever seeing this headline spread in the yellow news...they are all sticking into the Clown

2500 (4).jpg

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2 hours ago, mad said:

Why spend valuable time and resources designing, sourcing parts and building on your own, when there’s a group of others with more buying power and more combined skills??

And in a world where instant demand exceeds supply probably in the order of 100's of times, do you honestly believe that having an order for 100000 units is going to be anymore successful and cheaper than an order for 20000, any manufacturer out there right now with excess production is simply going to name their price.

Sorry, the only way you can guarantee any sort of volume in the short term future is to build them. Most countries all have a huge number of skilled workers eminently suited to the task all sitting on the arses wondering where the next wage packet is going to come from, all it needs is a bit of joined up thinking by not a lot of capable managers ( of which it would seem the NHS and the British governmental departments have few of ) and you would be surprised how quickly these sort of machines could be coming off the shop floor.

 

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5 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

And in a world where instant demand exceeds supply probably in the order of 100's of times, do you honestly believe that having an order for 100000 units is going to be anymore successful and cheaper than an order for 20000, any manufacturer out there right now with excess production is simply going to name their price.

Sorry, the only way you can guarantee any sort of volume in the short term future is to build them. Most countries all have a huge number of skilled workers eminently suited to the task all sitting on the arses wondering where the next wage packet is going to come from, all it needs is a bit of joined up thinking by not a lot of capable managers ( of which it would seem the NHS and the British governmental departments have few of ) and you would be surprised how quickly these sort of machines could be coming off the shop floor.

 

So where are the ventilation units then?? 
 

We have more buying power within the EU, now we’re just a minnow competing against all the others, including the US. 

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Just now, mad said:

So where are the ventilation units then?? 

Being talked about.

You know as well as I do that my views on the capability of our so called elite is pretty derogatory to say the least.

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Just now, Waynemarlow said:

Being talked about.

You know as well as I do that my views on the capability of our so called elite is pretty derogatory to say the least.

Strangely enough it’s also a lot of the so called elite calling for Brexit........ strange that isn’t it. 

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Just now, mad said:

Strangely enough it’s also a lot of the so called elite calling for Brexit........ strange that isn’t it. 

What 52 / 48 %, I wouldn't call that a lot ;)

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Just now, Waynemarlow said:

What 52 / 48 %, I wouldn't call that a lot ;)

It was and is the elites that whipped up a lot of the propaganda and fervour, those with the gold get to make the rules. 
Virtually every single one of them is independently wealthy and are in a position to gain, for the rest of the population, it’s a gamble with worsening odds. 

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Anyway the world can't make anymore ventilators according to LeoV as the 1 plan on line has parts which are no longer in production and the design from FabLab is a failure.

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Just now, mad said:

It was and is the elites that whipped up a lot of the propaganda and fervour, those with the gold get to make the rules. 
Virtually every single one of them is independently wealthy and are in a position to gain, for the rest of the population, it’s a gamble with worsening odds. 

Ferk you don't half have a chip on your shoulder, the next thing you'll be blaming Brexit for the previous 30 years of your life and how you didn't make the grade.

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10 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

Anyway the world can't make anymore ventilators according to LeoV as the 1 plan on line has parts which are no longer in production and the design from FabLab is a failure.

You are disgusting. Never said that. Your logic is so warped that it is extra stellar. around Betelgeuse. So far from reality...

As was the logic of many Brexiteers.. and they are looking very bad in policy making this bunch of VoteLEave government. But very good in polishing turds.

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