Fiji Bitter

Brexit WTF, WTF

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BBC tv news is reporting that the EU commission has just confirmed that the UK is NOT taking part in any EU equipment procurement exercise, though they are entitled to.

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There are a few exercises going on I miss an oversight, so they are out of the test material procurement too ? Stupid.
Many different chemical ingredients needed. You risk running out of one, while other countries have them in stock...

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https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/brexit/negotiations/coronavirus-is-it-possible-to-extend-the-brexit-transition-period/

It is very complicated to get an extension, as it entails EU budget payment questions etc.
I can not see this government willing to do that.

On the other hand, HO has withdrawn immigration Bill, and signed a deal with Greece to keep assisting in bordercontrol there, with a vessel.

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33 minutes ago, LeoV said:

There are a few exercises going on I miss an oversight, so they are out of the test material procurement too ? Stupid.
Many different chemical ingredients needed. You risk running out of one, while other countries have them in stock...

Not clear to me. Hancock was talking at PMQ's, and then the statement from the EU commission was flashed up on the "Breaking news" bar at the bottom, so presumably someone in the EU had responded to his statement that UK was taking part. No doubt obfuscation about what he meant to refer to will be used to pretend he wasn't deliberately misleading parliament.

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Has the UK lost out?

Hancock and Helen Whately, the care minister, pointed out on Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning that the EU’s scheme has yet to deliver any medical supplies. It has also been suggested by anonymous government officials to various media outlets that the UK is now part of a procurement of therapeutics and products required for vaccines.

In reality, no such new procurements have yet been launched. As for the ongoing procurements, eight suppliers have offered PPE products in excess of that being ordered by the participating member states, and deliveries are expected to European healthcare workers shortly.

Guardian.

--------------------
So probably some mix up with Erasmus, Reach and other long standing institutions.
And EU scheme was more then products bought by EU and brought to countries doorsteps with EU flags. Lots of diplomacy going on behind the scenes to make sure ordered PPE by member states gets delivered.
Example; there is now in China an EU team that test the products bought by member states before it get shipped. Not all member states cooperate in that though.

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9 hours ago, hump101 said:

BBC tv news is reporting that the EU commission has just confirmed that the UK is NOT taking part in any EU equipment procurement exercise, though they are entitled to.

EU say UK have not participated in 4 procurement schemes all now closed. 

Helen Whately, the Care Minister said on radio 4 this morning they only missed one procurement and inferred they were now participating.

13 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

.....Helen Whately, the Care Minister, said this morning on BBC Radio 4 that the confirmed number of staff deaths was 61......

PS. Care Minister Whately also lied her guts out saying that missing first EU procurements was result of an "email error," NOT a "political' decision, as publically stated under oath by the top FCO civil servant, but now retracted obviously under threat.

 

 

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9 hours ago, LeoV said:

Facepalm;
Private firm running UK PPE stockpile was sold in middle of pandemic.
PPE stockpile management of the UK will be run be a French company as the US owner bailed out after a year. After troubles with a dodgy landowner who then went broke.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/revealed-private-firm-running-uk-ppe-stockpile-was-sold-in-middle-of-pandemic

6 April, French company took over the mess.
The distribution of that stockpile’s PPE, it seems, may no longer solely be the responsibility of Movianto. Eleven days ago, the DHSC announced a new “24/7 military operation” to oversee the supply of PPE to health and care workers. “We’ve had to create a whole new logistics network, essentially from scratch,” Hancock said.
According to this on 11 April, 5 days later, a new logistic network, from scratch. Admitting the old one was crap.
And Hancock admitted that UK is now taking part in EU pooling, so a French company can have interesting contacts.
Before the US management was in the hands of ze Germans... DHL.

Then overlay that with Supply Chain Coordination Limited who supply the NHS which is owned by the Health Minister/Govt and who gives direction to the company over procurement.

This is going off the charts insane.

On 4/21/2020 at 3:30 AM, jack_sparrow said:

Supply Chain Coordination Limited a private company owned by Hancock in capacity as Sec Health.

 

On 4/21/2020 at 3:38 AM, Waynemarlow said:

Only because he's minister for health.

The company is wholly owned by the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care who provides direction to the Company through his appointed director on the Board and by a letter of entrustment a copy of which can be found here.

The clue is in the website address https://www.sccl.nhs.uk/

 

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8 hours ago, mad said:

 

Done by an actuary analysing total deaths 2020 and past total annual deaths.

- death rates 77% higher than the same week last year
- excess deaths 30% higher than COVID-19 deaths
- They estimate there have been 30,000 excess deaths in the UK!

EWIkf_yXsAUnAt8.jpeg.1bb626742d1cb57190424b07671dc37c.jpeg

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Governments considering reopening economies frozen by restrictions to limit the spread of the new coronavirus are struggling to determine how deadly it is. With tests for the virus still in short supply, many analysts are looking to the blunter measure of total deaths. By comparing mortality statistics for this year with past years.

In parts of the U.S. and Europe, weekly fatalities from all causes are up by more than 25%, and in some places by almost 80%.

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Meeting of Tory 1922 Committee

The same cast of Tory MPs who haven't given a fuck about the impact of Brexit on business & ignored all of the concerns business were saying, NOW apparently care about business BUT didn't think discussion necessary about how many have died and yet to.

These people are fucking unbelievable.

Tory backbenchers want lockdown eased soon

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So not just one person ...from the horses 69 NHS staff fatalities and he has no idea on social care worker fatalities.

Nurses Association say 117.

 

 

IMG_20200423_110531.jpg

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Some smart lady who seemed to know what she was talking about, said loss of smell is an early sign of having the virus. She suggested sniffing peanut butter. I do not have any, but the coffee beans work well for sniffing. Banana peels too. I do not have a thermometer, but it is on the list to purchase. I want one of those aim and click jobs. I can use it to measure exhaust pipe temperature.    Wayne's hate on for the Scots, his lack of understanding or caring about folks in other countries, his general insecurity, causes me to think he is hiding a lot, and fabricating stuff to cover it. I do not have time to post often, as I am working on an affordable senior housing project.   Today when I went online to renew my British passport, they politely asked my to come back later, as they were busy with the needy. I expect I will get the same message three months from now.   There was very little fish back in the seventies in North East UK, so not much to protect. Was the NE fishing fleet that scraped the bottom of most everything.

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5 hours ago, Unkle Krusty said:

. I do not have a thermometer,

An accurate thermometer regularly checked is must have for those at risk, (infra red for checking others if circumstances require).

Why??? The risk of mortality increases dramatically with time for those requiring hospitalisation..get there early. Then once you move from "non-evasive" ventilation to "evasive mechanical" ventilation your mortality risk just from that "change point" goes up 50%+. Stay out of ICU!!!

Johnson for example in ICU stopped at "non-evasive" but from there it would have been a 50%+ chance of needing a new PM.

On this subject.

If an Inquiry is ever convened over the Government's response these 2 pages will be read with interest. This stuff is accessible On-line (still??).

NERVTAG is the "New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group" a standing Committee of experts that is there to advise the GOVT/SAGE/COBRA about respiratory epidemics.

Note: There is another group SPI-M or "Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling" who advise the Dept of Health primarily about virus responses and whose primary document is the shambolic Pandemic Emergency Plan I have linked upthread.

These NERVTAG pages, the one amended in Red is the original altered just after 11 February. You can see it made this Table COVID-19 specific and that some important assumptions about important hospitalisation and ICU rates were removed. Those remaining are no longer listed Reasonable Worst Case  (RWC) but  Worst Case and some have been proved to be very wrong. For instance CFR or Case Fatality Rate is 2.5 - 4%. It is currently 14% but with limited testing.

Therefore on or just after 11 Feb is a pivotal date from which decisions made by the Govt unfolded. This document indicates the threat was downgraded.

Sleuthing over. :ph34r:

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41 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

An accurate thermometer regularly checked is must have for those at risk, (infra red for checking others if circumstances require).

 

Sleuthing over. :ph34r:

 

 

Please do, it keeps me in calibration work, we do master electronic super-thermometers used by labs , accurate to point six in a million 

The company issued every employee with an infra red thermometer, so we check ourselves before going to work.  Just the cheapest company one at about £100 each. 

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55 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:
6 hours ago, Unkle Krusty said:

. I do not have a thermometer,

An accurate thermometer regularly checked is must have for those at risk, (infra red for checking others if circumstances require).

Make sure you check the granularity/tolerance on the infrared units, the first few I looked at were +/- 1.5 degrees C. About as much use as a chocolate teapot for accurate diagnosis. 

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3 minutes ago, The Q said:

Please do, it keeps me in calibration work, we do master electronic super-thermometers used by labs , accurate to point six in a million 

The company issued every employee with an infra red thermometer, so we check ourselves before going to work.  Just the cheapest company one at about £100 each. 

Can you offer any impartial advice? I would like one for work anyway, monitoring staff would be a bonus. 

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5 minutes ago, The Q said:

Please do, it keeps me in calibration work, we do master electronic super-thermometers used by labs , accurate to point six in a million 

The company issued every employee with an infra red thermometer, so we check ourselves before going to work.  Just the cheapest company one at about £100 each. 

 

2 minutes ago, mad said:

Make sure you check the granularity/tolerance on the infrared units, the first few I looked at were +/- 1.5 degrees C. About as much use as a chocolate teapot for accurate diagnosis. 

 

1 minute ago, mad said:

Can you offer any impartial advice? I would like one for work anyway, monitoring staff would be a bonus. 

I have got two remote one for trouble shooting checking engine cooling sysem/large alternators temps and the other rated to 800c for my Pizza Oven. 

Calibrated for medical they are not though putting Wayne on a stake and striking a match the latter could be usefull in a medical sense.

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

....important hospitalisation and ICU rates were removed. Those remaining are no longer listed Reasonable Worst Case  (RWC) but  Worst Case and some have been proved to be very wrong. For instance CFR or Case Fatality Rate is 2.5 - 4%. It is currently 14% but with limited testing.

Therefore on or just after 11 Feb is a pivotal date from which decisions made by the Govt unfolded. This document indicates the threat was downgraded.

Sleuthing over. :ph34r:

Not quite over.

Just remembered No Deal Preparations and Doc titled "Yellowhammer" that was leaked.

Govt said it was Worst Case whereas claims it was Reasonable Worst Case and there was a 'Black Swan" that was Worst Case that Gove kept denying saying it didn't exist.

These people have form over riding expert advise??

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12 minutes ago, mad said:

Can you offer any impartial advice? I would like one for work anyway, monitoring staff would be a bonus. 

Hardly impartial,  but for quality electronic equipment I'd always recommend Fluke..

I also have however a cheap Chinese one, I bought many years ago,  for rough general information on the temperature that's good enough but of course it's not calibrated. Though I checked mine against stuff at work,  and it was within a couple of tenths.. 

For covid one decimal place is enough.  

Note, forehead temperature checking is not as accurate as a glass thermometer in the mouth.

  That said the infra red thermometer should be held 2 to 6 inches from the head,  the send them home figure is 38C.

 

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As a budget cruiser I also use an IR thermometer (a $5 Chinese mini IR), both on my engine and on my forehead.

The relative accuracy and repeatability is within a tenth of a °C, plenty good enough indeed to see when to call the Covid clinic. Just add 4° when they ask your temp, or more if you want to go straight to the ICU...

 

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18 minutes ago, Fiji Bitter said:

As a budget cruiser I also use an IR thermometer (a $5 Chinese mini IR), both on my engine and on my forehead.

The relative accuracy and repeatability is within a tenth of a °C, plenty good enough indeed to see when to call the Covid clinic. Just add 4° when they ask your temp, or more if you want to go straight to the ICU...

 

Looking at the probable increased infection in ICU's and the survival rates, I think I'll avoid that until there are no more options.

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/uk-making-impossible-demands-over-europol-database-in-eu-talks?CMP=share_btn_tw

UK making 'impossible demands' over Europol database in EU talks

Leaked German government report shows Britain has been requesting special access.

EU officials said the last week of negotiations covering trade, police and judicial cooperation and governance of the future relationship, had not made any significant progress. “There is a chasm,” said the source.

The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, is expected to offer an uncompromising view when he speaks to reporters on Friday.

--------

Heard the same over Reach on the radio by some experts, they want full access, setup their own Reach, and all the chemicals they approve to be safe must be accepted by the EU without questions. Big no, as US companies would probably force the UK to accept stuff that the EU bans.

Looks like the UK is playing it hard. As this is round 1 of 3, you can expect a hard stance, but it must offer openings.
Curious to hear Barniers statement tomorrow.

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12 minutes ago, mad said:

Looking at the probable increased infection in ICU's and the survival rates, I think I'll avoid that until there are no more options.

Exactly, that's why I said "if you want to go straight to".  So me neither, and anyway, there is no ICU and no ventilator in my local hospital. Just oxygen will have to do the trick, like for Boris. :unsure:

 

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7t of protective medical equipment has just arrived in #Montenegro by transport provided and paid for by #Netherlands
The contingent contains: 726,000 masks, 460,000 gloves, 2,800 suits, 1,800 goggles, 5,000 #COVID19 test kits, 450 thermometers & 20 visors.
Another cargo flight funded by
#Netherlands, primarily to transport rest of the #EU equipment assistance, will arrive soon.
-------------
In case you wondered if EU still does not cooperate. Dutch have an 5 days a week flight from China to EU solely for PPE and other medical stuff.
Montenegro does not have air freight capacity. was a request made to the Nato, just like UK asked for Nato members for ventilators. EU granted 3 M Euro to Montenegro so they could order PPE.
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1 hour ago, LeoV said:

--------

Heard the same over Reach on the radio by some experts, they want full access, setup their own Reach, and all the chemicals they approve to be safe must be accepted by the EU without questions. Big no, as US companies would probably force the UK to accept stuff that the EU bans.

Looks like the UK is playing it hard. As this is round 1 of 3, you can expect a hard stance, but it must offer openings.
Curious to hear Barniers statement tomorrow.

The thing called REACH ...I like it when my posts don't age :P 

Had an earlier one from last year pre Oct but can't find it. Demonstrates how advanced the UK really is. Floundering.

On 2/7/2020 at 12:11 PM, jack_sparrow said:

REACH is a EU regulation adopted globally and finally getting sone airplay. Chemicals is something which impacts every day upon every day people.

In its preparations for a no-deal Brexit, the UK drafted the REACH (etc.) (Amendment etc.) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 which create a UK version of REACH (UK REACH). In the event of a no-deal Brexit, UK REACH (or some version of it) would come into force at 11pm (UK time) on 31 December 2020. Whilst the current version of UK REACH is heavily based on REACH, the UK Government has indicated that divergence from EU law should be expected in the case of a no-deal Brexit. What the end version of UK REACH will look like is yet to be seen.

Brexit and REACH: What does it mean for products companies?

 

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1 hour ago, Fiji Bitter said:

Exactly, that's why I said "if you want to go straight to".  So me neither, and anyway, there is no ICU and no ventilator in my local hospital. Just oxygen will have to do the trick, like for Boris. :unsure:

 

Fiji Nadi do have some  "non-evasive" ventilatators unless someone has pinched them.

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Just now, LeoV said:

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Good to see joined up thinking, for a change.

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46 minutes ago, mad said:

Good to see joined up thinking, for a change.

Are the poor ex colonials in the Commonwealth begging their old master for assistance???

Most countries currently have a Govt permission system before things like PPE can be exported many restrictions going back to Jan/Feb. The UK were exporting PPE until Feb/March.

Anyway just heard but can't confirm one poor old Commonwealth country gave OK for a load of PPE to go to the UK.

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Fiji Nadi do have some  "non-evasive" ventilatators unless someone has pinched them.

Nadi would be a long way to swim, as we are not allowed to sail, and all inter island flights have been suspended.

But indeed, reportedly 12 new ventilators of some sort have come in, added to the 50 they already had. Those 50 probably include the ones in the operating theaters and in the ambulances...

Anyway, I tell everybody to stay the hell out of my way, and just in case have secured my own automatic cpap breathing machine and oxygen concentrator. But please don't tell anyone or they will get confiscated by an overzealous health official.

 

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Testing the new propaganda...

Care Homes ...."We will have missed a few".....a few thousand tests or a few thousand bodies?

 

 

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37 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

The guy on the right makes more sense.

 

 

Gave up watching that shite a while ago.  The press briefings from NY are about the only sane thing worth watching. 

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On 4/22/2020 at 4:31 PM, mad said:

 

Graphs and maps

Last updated on week 17, 2020

Print

 

These graphs were generated in week 2020-17 with data from all 24 participating countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany (Berlin), Germany (Hesse), Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK (England), UK (Northern Ireland), UK (Scotland), UK (Wales).

Excess mortality

Graphs showing the weekly excess deaths (deviation in mortality from the expected level) in the data-providing EuroMOMO partner countries for the past years, all ages and by age groups.

 

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

 

And the winner is? Yes of course....

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On 4/22/2020 at 6:41 AM, Albatros said:

yep, that's correctamundo ... but if you look at today's situation, curve not just flattened but going down, hospitals were never overloaded,far from it,  problem shifted to care centers but that also is being covered, it's image damage but all in all I would stand behind the way it was handled, there is no absolute truth in the matter, am just a bit wondering and concerned about Sweden and what happens in the USofA.

5 hours ago, jgh66 said:

Graphs and maps

Last updated on week 17, 2020

Print

These graphs were generated in week 2020-17 with data from all 24 participating countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany (Berlin), Germany (Hesse), Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK (England), UK (Northern Ireland), UK (Scotland), UK (Wales).

Excess mortality

Graphs showing the weekly excess deaths (deviation in mortality from the expected level) in the data-providing EuroMOMO partner countries for the past years, all ages and by age groups.

 

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

 

And the winner is? Yes of course....

Albatross go look at Belgium and UK excess mortality. UK are the winner yet they are not the per capita Covid winner Belgium is. Someone deserves to be above Belgium and is cooking the books.

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And from the Irish farmer 

No mention of Brexit.

The in-house analysis performed by DG TRADE’s Chief Economist team estimates a 9.7% decrease in global trade for 2020. For the EU27, the predicted COVID19-related economic contraction results in a reduction of 9.2% in extra-EU27 exports of goods andservices, and an 8.8% decrease in extra-EU27 imports in 2020. In absolute terms, compared to the latest available statistics, this amounts to a reduction of exports by about 285 billion EUR and by 240 billion EUR in extra-EU imports (goods and services combined). Exports of primary sectors (other than energy) and services trade5 turn out to be less strongly affected than manufacturing sectors, most of which see export contractions above 10%. In particular, transport equipment and electrical machinery turn out to be more strongly affected.

 

 

 

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Feeling sunny ? The clouds are leaving the UK.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/04/23/ibm_watson_gpu_cluster_brexits/

But more serious;
UK has yet to seriously engage in key areas of negotiation - says Barnier
Barnier: "Never in history of negotiations has EU been faced with such a tight timetable for negotiations. UK cant impose this tight timetable, then not engage in key issues of importance to EU". Says, EU still awaiting "reasonable proposals" from UK on issues of fishing
Barnier says only 2 negotiating rounds left - one May, one early June to make progress in ALL AREAS . This, after Barnier outlined, 4 key areas where, he says, the UK is not engaging

Prepare for WTO plus. UK is not seriously engaging other then copy paste best deals from different FTA EU has, without the obligations.
Inside source; the understanding how the EU works is still not understood by the UK.

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Leo from your favourite blogger

Here, the main issue is the very clear overlap (£) between those who think that the coronavirus restrictions are overdone, should never have happened or should be lifted quickly.........and those who support Brexit, think it is easy and simple, and should have been done by now.

And it’s always the same argumentative tricks – cherry-picked statistics (£350M/ comparative death rates), semi-understood factoids (WTO rules/ herd immunity), bogus past comparisons (we managed fine before/ flu), overblown rhetoric (dictatorship/ house arrest), and drastic exaggerations of their opponents’ claims so as to erect absurd strawmen for demolition (so it means WW3/ we’re all going to die? Really?).

Coronavirus and Brexit: the connections and their consequences

PS. Great line.

“The populist explosion of this decade, of which Brexit was a prime example, has bequeathed a way of governing which is impervious to reason, and incapable of engaging with complexity.”

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Watched a few times, looks like the UK is torpedoing this talks, they only engage in sectors they like. With proposals that favours UK only.

Seems BJ oven ready deal was not digestible in the EU. But this was round 1 out of 3. You expect some strong words after first round. But this is accusing the UK of not being serious.

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Quick UK media round;
SKY; Barnier blast UK and demands UK budge.
Express; Michel Barnier threatens to sink Brexit deal as he launches furious rant over fisheries
BBC; Barnier says talks were disappointing.
independant; UK ‘failing to engage’ in Brexit talks,

Barnier was calm and logical but you could feel the disappointment in his voice.

best look outside the EU/UK for best recap, Politico and MSN;
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-eu-michel-barnier-slams-uk-for-lack-of-progress-in-talks

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49 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Coronavirus and Brexit: the connections and their consequences

PS. Great line.

“The populist explosion of this decade, of which Brexit was a prime example, has bequeathed a way of governing which is impervious to reason, and incapable of engaging with complexity.”

That juxtaposes interestingly with insightful commentary  from Brian Taylor (BBC political editor, Scotland) on Nicola Sturgeon's CV-19 briefing this morning:

BT: "..She could not be sure when lockdown would be lifted. She could not be sure when a drug or a vaccine would emerge. She could not be entirely certain about the impact of future policies."

This was honesty, painful frankness from the first minister. And with a purpose. She wants us on her side. She needs us, the public, to engage in discourse about where we go next."

 It's to be hoped she can succeed with this approach.

Cheers,

              W. 

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Overall countries with woman in the driving seat are doing better then when a man is in control.

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If the UK does not U turn in 18 days, it will be tariffs and quota's. Straight WTO and almost nothing plus. Maybe on medical stuff. And Rotterdam will not be a transport hub for the UK without the UK paying the costs.

Here is Barniers text;
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_20_739

Here the best parts for time constrained people;

We must be equally ambitious in preventing unfair trade distortions and unjustified competitive advantages, for instance on state aid and relevant tax measures.

The UK this week failed to engage substantially on these topics.

It argued that our positions are too far apart to reach an agreement.

It also denounced the basic premise that economic interconnectedness and geographic proximity require robust guarantees.

Yet, again, this is what we agreed with Boris Johnson in our joint Political Declaration. This is what the UK Parliament approved after the December elections.

Let me remind you of what I said already – and what my mandate clearly states: there will be no ambitious trade deal without an ambitious level playing field on open and fair competition.

--------------------

But we face problems:

  •         The UK refuses to provide firm guarantees – rather than vague principles – on fundamental rights and individual freedoms.
  •         It insists on lowering current standards and deviating from agreed mechanisms of data protection.
  •         This creates serious limitations for our future security partnership.

 

----------------------------------------

Finally, we made no progress on fisheries.  On this essential topic, the UK has not put forward a legal text.

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Oh and will the Eu collapse now Italy and Spain are complaining over financial support ?

Deal is struck, loans, with rules.
The governments in Italy and Spain call it a major success, a turning point for the better in the history of Europe.
I don’t know who to believe anymore :) There will be more talks needed, but basis is there. In a few weeks. Faster then a negotiating round about Brexit. And about more then a Trillion Euro. Brexit deal or no deal difference is about hundreds of millions. Not important on this scale.

Best article;
https://www.politico.eu/article/why-italy-should-love-the-european-stability-mechanism-coronavirus-economy-eurozone-covid19/

Now it is time for the Northern countries to really stop helping the tax evasions from other EU countries. And for Southern countries to stop tax avoiding from all and no untaxed work and no corruption. And fix some other problems to. EU is not without faults.

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57 minutes ago, LeoV said:

It argued that our positions are too far apart to reach an agreement.

 Gross arrogance and wilful negligence they will answer to one day.

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30 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

 Gross arrogance and wilful negligence they will answer to one day.

They will be very old by then.

For fairness, the UK view;
Punchy statement from the government after this week's Brexit talks: the EU's offer, "falls well short of recent precedent in FTAs it has agreed with other sovereign countries," and there are "significant differences of principle" in other areas.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/brexit-talks-disappointing-say-eu-as-uk-admits-limited-progress-made-on-trade-deal

-----------------
Wheehhh we want Swiss deal, but not pay, or Japan deal but with financial services access. wheeeh...

By the presser from Barnier there were only British and Irish journalists. It is here not even mentioned in the news. Brexit is stale news.

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It is funny that the UK keeps saying that both parties are sovereign and equal. The UK is an union, of which only one nation is at the table. The EU is an union of 27 sovereign states who are all at the table. And bigger unions have more power, not the smaller one. Unless it has a brilliant idea.... do not wait for it...

So the UK will be an US or Russian protectorate soon, as China is now a new enemy. Russia has more money to spend on bribes etc, US more for investment and trade.
And if BJ fails to play out the US against Russia etc Argentina's fate is awaiting.

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8 minutes ago, LeoV said:

They will be very old by then.

Breaking News....89 year Boris Johnson and Ex PM attacked in nursing home by group of fellow residents all wearing faded Remain T-shirts. 

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12 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Albatross go look at Belgium and UK excess mortality. UK are the winner yet they are not the per capita Covid winner Belgium is. Someone deserves to be above Belgium and is cooking the books.

yep, was on news here too, absolute winner at this moment is the fair city of New York, with an excess rate of 298%, next is Spain with 66% , England and Wales 33%, Netherlands 33%, Belgium 25%, France21% , damn, for one time we thought we were on top :rolleyes:

according to the specialists, this excess rate, meaning that you compare previous year to current, is the only valid way of counting

note from Germany's foremost virologist, the man guiding Merkel, and Germany's figs are among the best : "the second wave, if it happens could be far more devastating than what we have right now".

And as Leo also already mentioned, Barnier is not too happy, in his own phlegmatic way.

 

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2 minutes ago, Albatros said:

according to the specialists, this excess rate, meaning that you compare previous year to current, is the only valid way of counting

Yes also bursts the myth this is just a old persons disease.

IMG_20200424_182509.jpg.d7662b5aef0091f53020232f4056582d.jpg

IMG_20200424_182137.thumb.jpg.d5b41fb2e93dcfe65c966a43782eb97c.jpg

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The Singapore on Thames issues are not being directly referred to right now, but there are Interesting linked strands developing.

Denmark said no government help for companies domiciled in, or with subsidiaries domiciled in tax havens.

France looked like doing the same, then back pedalled, perhaps when someone pointed out that, for example, PSA (Peugeot Citroen) use Malta for tax "reduction" purposes...

The EU has a list of tax haven states, and each EU country has their own list. Some include Ireland for example. I guess quite a few would like to include the Netherlands, but avoid the political damage to EU coherence except when wound up.

Would be fun to see the UK say no help like this. Rees-Mogg may have a seizure.

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Quote

Revealed: Cummings is on secret scientific advisory group for Covid-19 

Exclusive: Leaked list reveals presence of Johnson adviser and Vote Leave ally on supposedly independent body

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/revealed-dominic-cummings-on-secret-scientific-advisory-group-for-covid-19?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

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So smart to have political figures on an advisory board. You know the advise will be totally non political...not.

Dyson will not supply ventilators to NHS to treat Covid-19.
https://www.demcon.nl/en/first-ventilation-systems-delivered-by-demcon/
One month, approved and and tested and in production.
Just like UK Penlon and French Airliquide.

CMS, Italy Spain and Portugal have some problems with helping tax evasion too. But it should stop IMHO. But that will ask for deep EU cooperation.

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3 hours ago, cms said:

... tax havens.... quite a few would like to include the Netherlands...

When I was running a business in the UK I certainly found it advantageous to have it owned by a company domiciled in a lawyers office in Amsterdam...

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On 4/23/2020 at 4:43 PM, jack_sparrow said:

.....On this subject.

If an Inquiry is ever convened over the Government's response these 2 pages will be read with interest. This stuff is accessible On-line (still??).

NERVTAG is the "New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group" a standing Committee of experts that is there to advise the GOVT/SAGE/COBRA about respiratory epidemics.

Note: There is another group SPI-M or "Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling" who advise the Dept of Health primarily about virus responses and whose primary document is the shambolic Pandemic Emergency Plan I have linked upthread.

These NERVTAG pages, the one amended in Red is the original altered just after 11 February. You can see it made this Table COVID-19 specific and that some important assumptions about important hospitalisation and ICU rates were removed. Those remaining are no longer listed Reasonable Worst Case  (RWC) but  Worst Case and some have been proved to be very wrong. For instance CFR or Case Fatality Rate is 2.5 - 4%. It is currently 14% but with limited testing.

Therefore on or just after 11 Feb is a pivotal date from which decisions made by the Govt unfolded. This document indicates the threat was downgraded.

Sleuthing over. :ph34r:

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Some more Sleuthing :ph34r:

GOVERNMENT FOLLOWING SCIENTISTS OR SCIENTISTS FOLLOWING THE GOVERNMENT

Following the above post and Mads linky Cummings is on secret scientific advisory group for Covid-19 about two SPADS Cummings and a data kid being part of SAGE as listed HERE

A. ADVISORY GROUPS & MEMBERS

From the above post NERVTAG is the "New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group" a standing Committee of experts that is there to advise the GOVT/SAGE/COBRA about respiratory epidemics. Their membership is attached. There are 3 individuals that sit on BOTH SAGE and NERVTAG.

NERVTAG Membership

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1. DUAL SAGE & NERVTAG MEMBERS.

- Neil Ferguson, professor at Imperial College London faculty of medicine. Head of the Imperial College modelling team whose work predicted 520K deaths in the UK with No Action and is credited with prompting the government to impose the lockdown.

Imperials modelling ALSO is credited with the Trump Administration likewise changing their strategy with was IDENTICAL to the UK's but with 2.2 million. Ferguson history comes with some critisism of "over" predicting BOTH threats and responses like Mad Cows etc. 

- Prof John Edmunds, specialist in design of control programmes against infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

A leader in disease modelling and analysis, Edmunds warned that Italy’s lockdown might prove unsustainable and has argued against banning exercise outdoors on the grounds that it has a negligible impact on the spread of the disease but benefits for mental health and wellbeing.

- James Rubin, reader in psychology of emerging health risks, Kings College London

Rubin has studied how people respond to all manner of perceived health risks, from nuclear meltdowns and the Ebola outbreak to mobile phone signals and novichok nerve agents. See NERVTAG Decision (c)  below on Social Distancing.

Key NERVTAG Decisions - See Table Amendments

EV-jGctWAAEobB3.png.0af5b08a4853f20aee6bbf6f5c8c00f3.pngEV-inN-XQAA5LVu.png.c00a62561c2d67e53220e2d306c5e34b.png

a) Table amended from Reasonable Worst Case (RWC) to Worst Case ie. downgrading threat.

b) Key important hospitalisation and ICU rates were removed and now proved wrong. The CFR or Case Fatality Rate is 2.5 - 4%. It is currently 14% but with limited testing. 

c) Following a query by James Rubin (dual member) NERVTAG being told not to comment on "the question of social distancing" as early as 3rd February? Critically social distancing did not come into effect until the week ending 21 March.

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This may be an indication it wasn't the government following the science, but the science following the government!

2. KEY SAGE

While only members of one, two of these three key members of SAGE had very similar public views about "herd immunity."

Sir Patrick Vallance The SAGE Chairman  and Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser and former president of research and development at GlaxoSmithKline. Up until 16 March he spoke openly about the UK using a "mitigation/herd immunity" strategy citing a 60% countrywide infection rate. Post 16 March those words have been wiped from history.

- Chris Whitty, England’s Chief Medical Officer. A doctor and epidemiologist with an enormous reputation among colleagues, he has devoted much of his career to malaria research in Africa. Previously chief scientific adviser at the Department for International Development and the Department of Health. 

As an aside he has shown to be very frank at Covid Pressers and if a recent  UGov Poll is to be relied upon, is regarded as the most trustworthy by the public over Vallance and Government representatives incl Johnson and Raab.

- Graham Medley, professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

Medley was one of the first scientists to elaborate on the herd immunity strategy. He told Newsnight he’d like to “put all the more vulnerable people into the north of Scotland … everybody else into Kent and have a nice, big epidemic in Kent, so that everyone becomes immune”.

Supposedly "subsequent" Imperial/Furguson modelling released on 16 March that predicated the Government's U'Turn to adopt "suppression" incl a "shut-down" indicated the level of "herd immunity" would need to be 80% not 60% and prove catastrophic. This is borne out by the UTurn delay imposing a death rate per capita for the UK already high possibly being the highest in the west.

3. SPI-M

There is another group SPI-M or "Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling" who advise the Health First Secretary/Dept of Health and Social Care (DHSC) primarily about virus responses and whose primary document is the shambolic Pandemic Emergency Plan I have linked upthread. At this time it would be assumed their standing advise to the Dept would also be go direct to SAGE during a pandemic. 

SPI-M and SAGE (where Whitty the CMO) is the over arching pandemic advice to NHS.

B. QUESTION - GOVERNMENT OR SCIENTISTS DIRECTING COVID RESPONSE

A proper Inquiry will only ever reveal that however from the above and what has transpired the following are reasonable assumptions.

- Within SAGE & NERVTAG there were probably two opinions. A more cautious and not economic friendly response probably led by Ferguson (joint member). The other a more radical and economic friendly response led probably by Edmunds (joint member), Vallance the Chairman of SAGE and Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser and Medley.

- If a split decision or not , the Johnson Government chose the softer more economic friendly option. This prevailed until 16 March and Imperial/Ferguson's modelling/view could no longer be ignored and the UTurn was made.

From Leo's favourite Blogger Coronavirus and Brexit: the connections and their consequences

"Here, the main issue is the very clear overlap (£) between those who think that the coronavirus restrictions are overdone, should never have happened or should be lifted quickly.........and those who support Brexit, think it is easy and simple, and should have been done by now."

“The populist explosion of this decade, of which Brexit was a prime example, has bequeathed a way of governing which is impervious to reason, and incapable of engaging with complexity.

Add Cummings to SAGE, very chilling.

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A previous chair of one of these committees was interviewed on BBC Newsnight last night, after the government had issued a rebuttal that Cummings et al were not taking part in discussions, just observing.

He made the point that this was fundamentally wrong because it was vitally important that the scientists could freely discuss the issues between themselves, and that their conclusions be communicated to the government BY A SCIENTIST, not by a humanities graduate who may or may not have understood the discussions.

I've sat on similar committees (Boards of Enquiry), and have seen similar issues when the open discussion is being interpreted by someone without the expertise to understand the nuances of the subject. It is also particularly damaging to the progression of the discussion if it is interrupted when clarifications are being sought by someone who is unable to follow the subject.

Another example of the government showing they don't know how to govern.

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20 minutes ago, hump101 said:

Another example of the government showing they don't know how to govern.

When a Government comes out and posts rebuttals on official Govt web sites to media articles and sound Twitter exposes, you know it's fucked.

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13 hours ago, KC375 said:

When I was running a business in the UK I certainly found it advantageous to have it owned by a company domiciled in a lawyers office in Amsterdam...

Yep, but how exactly ? And is that still possible ?
U2 and the Rolling Stones are Dutch groups according to were they filed taxes...
https://nltimes.nl/2017/06/12/rolling-stones-u2-management-deny-tax-evasion-via-dutch-shell-companies

Tax avoiding scheme is closed by 2021.
https://www.government.nl/latest/news/2018/12/28/netherlands-publishes-own-list-of-low-tax-jurisdictions-in-fight-against-tax-avoidance

The list contains five jurisdictions that are currently blacklisted by the European Union: American Samoa, the US Virgin Islands, Guam, Samoa, and Trinidad and Tobago.

In addition, the Dutch list includes another 16 low-tax jurisdictions: Anguilla, the Bahamas, Bahrain, Belize, Bermuda, the British Virgin Islands, Guernsey, the Isle of Man, Jersey, the Cayman Islands, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Vanuatu and the United Arab Emirates. These jurisdictions either have no corporation tax or have a corporation tax rate that is lower than 9%. The Dutch list therefore contains more jurisdictions than the EU list.
This means that companies registered in the jurisdictions on the Dutch list will pay 20.5% tax from 2021 on interest and royalties received from the Netherlands. This will prevent funds being channelled to tax havens through the Netherlands.

Now it is up to other EU countries to not allow this to happen, otherwise they pick another country to do the trick.
For instance Italy, France or Spain could have changed their laws to prohibited to use the Dutch/Irish trick.
Lets hope the EU really are going to forbid dealings with banks that have ties to taxhavens as they propose.

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

When a Government comes out and posts rebuttals on official Govt web sites to media articles and sound Twitter exposes, you know it's fucked.

Chief PM advisor on the most important board, off course that has no influence on the outcome of said board.
This Cummings / SAGE story is a real issue ,gov is hiding behind independent "scientific advice",  story that is not as Cummings and a friend sits on scientific committee, and all messages coming from gov is, nothing to see here, it is normal. 

You now this government of Vote Leave did not listen to experts on Brexit, but found one expert who agrees with them even if all others are not (Minford) and he is declared the source of all wisdom.
Not a stretch of imagination to think on this Sage board the same thing is happening. Press should be worried, and voters.

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1;Cummings was initially opposed to strict lockdown measures, against Sage advice.
He changed course at the moment the stats pointed out that Sage was right.

Or;

2;Cummings was initially opposed to strict lockdown measures, but he changed his view because he got a better understanding of the science and modelling, as a result of attending Sage meetings.

Or;

3;Sage changed their advice and Cummings did not play a role in anything.

All possible, and only transcripts of the talks can solve this.
Proof by numbers is that both Sage and Cummings did not handle this well. Herd immunity, late lockdown etc.

It is waiting for many sage members to speak up what was going on.

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And does England maybe wants NI to leave the Union ? As there is no work done on NIP border checks.

This is precisely why the EU isn’t letting this one slip. The UK may say "yeah, whatever" to a UK-EU deal... But the #Protocol means it will be saying "yeah, whatever" to its own internal market at the same time.

THE UK-EU BORDER WILL FALL WITHIN THE UK. Yup. Uh-huh.

https://twitter.com/hayward_katy/status/1253734632530608137

 

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11 minutes ago, LeoV said:

And does England maybe wants NI to leave the Union ? As there is no work done on NIP border checks.

Brexit No Deal with Protocol & No Preparation = Accelerated Border Poll

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23 minutes ago, LeoV said:

It is waiting for many sage members to speak up what was going on.

And add NERVTAG members and where unlike some whack-job Brexiteer economists, that's over 30 scientist types, many with international reputations to preserve and protect. There will be a crack, only a matter of when.

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Guardian tries as they put this in the article;

Covid-19: help us investigate

The Guardian is investigating how the UK government prepared for – and is responding to – the coronavirus pandemic. We want to learn more about recent decisions taken at the heart of government. If you’re a whistleblower or source and with new information, you can email xxxxxx or (using a non-work phone) use Signal or WhatsApp to message (UK) +44 xxxxx. (The number does not take calls.) For the most secure communications, use SecureDrop. For general advice on confidentially contacting the Guardian, see our guide.

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Brexit No Deal with Protocol & No Preparation = Accelerated Border Poll

And nobody can be sure how that one will end. Maybe NI is in a perfect place to be, in between GB and Euroland.

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18 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Who was this chap in the House of Lords ?
A thread about #COVID19, colonial violence, and how the English class system is wrecking the country.
https://twitter.com/paddydocherty/status/1248394361248731145

The Lord fits nicely into the upper class colonial slot. Paddy has a serious colon colonist issue. His comparing Cummings to Charles Trevelyan, the Treasury official placed in charge of relief during the Irish famine in the 1840s was where he lost me. 

Maybe Paddy is Wayne??

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UK hoopla around SAGE is solved; Dominic Cummings denies Dominic Cummings is a member of SAGE.

But on Brexit, the news here almost totally ignores it, it is minor.
And on the effect of WTO,  EU to Russia embargo was way worse, and we handled that. It will hurt, but bigger fish to fry.

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4 minutes ago, LeoV said:

UK hoopla around SAGE is solved; Dominic Cummings denies Dominic Cummings is a member of SAGE.

Was that a Downing St spokesman saying they were Dominic Cummings or they knew Dominic Cummings was Dominic Cummings ??. They are very tricky with words.

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The leaks are getting bigger

UK ministers were warned last year of risks of coronavirus pandemic

"The Cabinet Office document, which runs to more than 600 pages, not only analysed the risk of a viral flu pandemic but also specifically addressed the potential for a coronavirus outbreak....

The recommendations within it included the need to stockpile PPE (personal protective equipment), organise advanced purchase agreements for other essential kit, establish procedures for disease surveillance and contact tracing, and draw up plans to manage a surge in excess deaths."

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4 hours ago, LeoV said:

Yep, but how exactly ? And is that still possible ?...

I would not be surprised if the tools I used are no longer available. That was 2006, some smart expensive people developed the structure that included 13 entities in multiple jurisdictions (we operated on 3 continents).

I would guess there are still structures that reduce fiscal burden through flowing revenues and expenses to the jurisdictions that give them the most favourable treatment. I’m not current, but last time I looked things like IP, capital depreciation, interest expense, royalties, revenue, capital gains, dividends, options ...got different treatment in different jurisdictions.

Some argue that you are not fulfilling your fiduciary obligations to shareholders, if you don’t make sure those things are, to the extent legally possible, domiciled in the different jurisdictions that give you the optimum treatment for each...

I’m very much in favour of doing everything possible to harmonize taxation approaches across countries. Managers should make decisions based on fundamental economics, rather than on the rules imposed or not imposed by governments. As long as the “rules of the game” include significant fiscal divergence across jurisdictions, managers will play the game within the rules provided.

Bring this back to sailing. You may think using your “luffing rights” is unsporting so don’t use them. Well people who use them to keep their clear air will more often than not beat you. Assuming the owner of the boat wants the most trophies possible, you will be replaced at the helm by someone comfortable luffing their competitors. Competitors compete under the rules they are given. If you don’t like how they compete, change (and enforce) the rules and their behaviour will change.

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43 minutes ago, KC375 said:

...

I’m very much in favour of doing everything possible to harmonize taxation approaches across countries. Managers should make decisions based on fundamental economics, rather than on the rules imposed or not imposed by governments. ..

 

One of the biggest problems in harmonizing is that not all fiscal differences are about “unfair cheating” between governments.

Countries/Administrations can have very legitimate and sincere policy differences that drive significant divergence in fiscal policy.

Most taxes* reduce the efficiency of a market economy through “dead weight loss”. But much government spending is so beneficial that it overcomes the dead weight loss. People can have legitimate disagreements on where the right balance point is. Some countries believe in a much bigger role for government in society and some believe in much more individual initiative and accountability. The former will need more tax revenue than the later. (* taxes – like carbon tax – that effectively price unpriced externalities or costs arguably improve the efficiency of the market but then those are taxes whose goal is not primarily government revenue).

Many economists argue that consumption taxes (e.g. VAT) is the government revenue approach that does the least harm to the economy. However consumption taxes are “regressive” and socially unpopular in some countries. EU VAT averages 21.3% try doing that in Alaska whose sales tax 1.75% (remember they love the 2nd amendment and carry guns)...even the highest US sales tax 9.53% in Tennessee, is less than half the EU average.

Many people believe in progressive taxation taking a higher share of income from the better off. Others believe it is unfair to punish/pick on people just because they are successful.

Many policy makers believe wealth generated through longer term business risk taking is better for society and should be favoured over coupon clipping so tax capital gains are taxed at lower rates than income or dividends.

Many people believe that irrational belief in a higher being is worthy of tax break so treat religious organizations (like Scientologists or Disciples of Chris(Jim Jones)) better than other organizations.

Many countries favour the development of otherwise economically unpromising areas (the north – can you say Alaska, or abandoned inner cities, or depopulated rural areas or rust belt post industrial waste lands,...or simply the preservation of historic properties) and reward that good through favourable fiscal policies....

Many policy makers believe that R&D benefits society as whole so provide advantageous treatment and protection to IP...and R&D expenses...others don’t.

I of course I know the right answer to each of those (and all other) tax policy issues. However I’m modest enough to recognize others might legitimately have a different answer. It would be pretty arrogant and even colonial or imperialistic of me to impose my right fiscal answer on the rest of the world...which is what tax harmonization is.

Depending on where you end up on those policy points you end up with legitimately widely divergent tax regimes. When managers/business owners take advantage of those differences...they may not be cheating or competing unfairly...they may simply be following the legitimately divergent views and desires of public policy in different jurisdictions.

 

 

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2 hours ago, LeoV said:

EVMwHOFU4AcS3GV?format=jpg&name=900x900

Who was this chap in the House of Lords ?
A thread about #COVID19, colonial violence, and how the English class system is wrecking the country.
https://twitter.com/paddydocherty/status/1248394361248731145

That twitter thread really does a great job of the arc of British history. Stretching from hereditary peerage awarded to racist homicidal psychopath destroyer of African people through to the future Viscount a two bit defrauder of a grocery store trying to keep alive a failing music festival to support the family home.

From the terrifying globally oppressive to the derisory small time grifter...thus goes England.

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

The leaks are getting bigger

UK ministers were warned last year of risks of coronavirus pandemic

"The Cabinet Office document, which runs to more than 600 pages, not only analysed the risk of a viral flu pandemic but also specifically addressed the potential for a coronavirus outbreak....

The recommendations within it included the need to stockpile PPE (personal protective equipment), organise advanced purchase agreements for other essential kit, establish procedures for disease surveillance and contact tracing, and draw up plans to manage a surge in excess deaths."

Don't you just hate it when the bureaucrats turn out to have been right all along...they will be so insufferable.

 

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Pritti Stupid's Immigration Bill has been kicked into the long grass.  Maybe the fuckwits in charge are realising we need people.  Sorry if this has already been posted.

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12 minutes ago, Whinging Pom said:

Pritti Stupid's Immigration Bill has been kicked into the long grass.  Maybe the fuckwits in charge are realising we need people.  Sorry if this has already been posted.

Kicked into touch, or just carrying on quietly in the background?  
Much like the final throes of the Brexit agreement. 

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5 hours ago, KC375 said:

I of course I know the right answer to each of those (and all other) tax policy issues. However I’m modest enough to recognize others might legitimately have a different answer. It would be pretty arrogant and even colonial or imperialistic of me to impose my right fiscal answer on the rest of the world...which is what tax harmonization is.

The EU has countries with hundred years of different tax regiments. Ours is a mix of 16 and1700 Dutch, 1800 French and 1900 German influences.
Compare that with the Southern Balkan and the rules are different for a good reason. It will take a long time to make it fair for all countries.

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1 minute ago, LeoV said:

The EU has countries with hundred years of different tax regiments. Ours is a mix of 16 and1700 Dutch, 1800 French and 1900 German influences.
Compare that with the Southern Balkan and the rules are different for a good reason. It will take a long time to make it fair for all countries.

It is way easier to do public policy from your arm chair at home than in reality. Most elected officials and civil servants try to do the right  thing as they see it. When you add in the reality of having to appease / appeal to a population that may not be that “informed” and having to balance competing interests, its frustrating, but easy to see that progress is more a bunch of muddled steps in generally the right direction.

When I was a young, naive, self confidant, and involved in the legislative process, I thought if I was King/PM/President...I’d just drive through the obvious legislative, regulatory and policy changes to make the world right.

Since then I’ve realized that changes that go beyond popular support lead to a break down in social cohesion that is worse than living with imperfect policy. When collective investment in the “national project” deteriorates it opens the door to people like Johnson, Trump and Oban. Divisive demagogues who do in years, damage that can take a generation to repair.

I’ve learned to respect leaders who manage to lead while appearing to be following the popular will / bringing along the popular will.

It just seemed so much easier when I knew I had all the answers...now I wonder about all the unintended consequences. I’ve gotten too old.

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Don't forget there could be a strong element of deliberate "framing" happening here by Downing St to divert attention away from the UK screaming past 20k dead many expected as a total.

I recall Cummings antics being capitalised upon before to get people talking particualy in online world to take spotlight off Govt other screwups. 

Strong chance "framing" is also happening in the US where 50K was seen as a total. A President promoting injecting disinfectant does  pretty good job at that. 

Call me very suspicious.

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30 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

...

Strong chance "framing" is also happening in the US where 50K was seen as a total. A President promoting injecting disinfectant does  pretty good job at that. 

Call me very suspicious.

Distracting with a shinny object is one thing. Proving yourself stupid and dangerous is not a media strategy that will work even for Trump. With the Drudge Report and Fox being critical of those statements it is no wonder the stable genius has gone into hiding from the media.

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Scottish Brexit Secretary hasn't heard anything from Westminster in six weeks

Russell said it is “deeply unsatisfactory” that a number of issues which involve devolved responsibilities have been included in the latest negotiations but the Scottish Government had “not been consulted in the slightest about them”.

He told the committee: “I have an outstanding request to the UK Government for consultation between our fisheries officials and their fisheries negotiators, which is essential, and it has not been implemented.

“The JMC EN has not met since the last week in January. It could meet virtually ... it simply hasn’t happened.

“Moreover, I haven’t spoken to a UK Government minister on this matter in six weeks. I have been requesting a discussion about this, we’ve not had one.”

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18404856.scottish-brexit-secretary-hasnt-heard-anything-westminster-six-weeks/

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25 minutes ago, KC375 said:

With the Drudge Report and Fox being critical of those statements it is no wonder the stable  genius has gone into hiding from the media.

Fox critical.... Question .... are they are masters of reading the populist pulse and now gone anti Trump OR just helping with the "frame." ???

I think you will find Fox back on the Trump bandwagon very quickly.

As I wrote elsewhere. There is a strong element of "automatic framing" attached to Trump historically brought upon by him diverting attention away from the fact he was broke  so many times, chasing finance pretending he didn't need it to survive, lot of his dealings joint venture finance him with little equity etc etc. 

Boris different ...he is master of the "natural gaffe," which is a perfect "framing" technique and for self promotion. Think stuck on the zip wire with flags.

Did he walk into that fridge accidentley 2 days before polling day when going badly with NHS/child fiasco or was it intentional??

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2 hours ago, KC375 said:

Distracting with a shinny object is one thing. Proving yourself stupid and dangerous is not a media strategy that will work even for Trump.

KC he is milking everyone.

 

 

 

 

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15 hours ago, LeoV said:

1;Cummings was initially opposed to strict lockdown measures, against Sage advice.
He changed course at the moment the stats pointed out that Sage was right.

Or;

2;Cummings was initially opposed to strict lockdown measures, but he changed his view because he got a better understanding of the science and modelling, as a result of attending Sage meetings.

Or;

3;Sage changed their advice and Cummings did not play a role in anything.

All possible, and only transcripts of the talks can solve this.
Proof by numbers is that both Sage and Cummings did not handle this well. Herd immunity, late lockdown etc.

It is waiting for many sage members to speak up what was going on.

Johnsons offsite media machine both rebutting and keeping it alive. This and Johnson returning to work tomorrow passing the 20K death mark (one many thought would be the limit) will barely get a mention.

 

Apart from it being overlooked by Neil that Cummings is a political operative and not a Civil servant, the CMO's from the 3 Unions don't sit on SAGE have to rely on Whitty England's CMO for representation. Why is Cummings data man also there if not go have expert data reviewed by political operatives ??

Anyway isn't Cummings the Leave campaign data miner genius? Data on assessing "public feedback" to virus response strategies, not the science.

#1. Leo to add to your point #1. 

"Cummings was initially opposed to strict lockdown measures, against Sage advice."

More like right in line with Vallance & the "herd immunity" in SAGE followers. They were influenced by Cummings??

- Cummings and Vallance pre SAGE a mutual admiration society.

Departments must invest in R&D to remain innovative, chief scientific adviser says

EWcQ8O1XQAA88v0.thumb.jpeg.4e62de250fd07b9d2ea772cda720515e.jpeg

- Then carried through in February