Fiji Bitter

Brexit WTF, WTF

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Johnson announces lock down easing program tomorrow.

Happy Monday nonsense they started by press briefing how that aligns who knows.

Italy & Spain have started to lift certain aspects of their lockdowns. But check out their new cases trajectory compared to UK. 

Something is out whack bigtime here. UK deaths dropping but it is still producing new cases.

Lock down can't be eased while this happening and when deaths outside hospitals still rising.

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EXPtwzYWkAYLDQs.png.bfc6edc3c152e8eee8b5513497c53e93.png

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23 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Seems they are now throwing their "centralised" go it alone App in the bin and going Google/Apple "decentralised"

Makes Northern Ireland and Republic now both "decentralised" but different Apps so two running compatible?? If not NHS hand NI data over to Dublin?

Even the virus is helping unification along:P

 

 

Can't wait for Spicers rendition of Hancock announcing that the Isle of Wight App testing went down the shitter and they now have to build a 2nd App.

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Have they definitely shit canned the first version? 

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8 minutes ago, mad said:

Have they definitely shit canned the first version? 

No official announcement yet.

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3 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

From the article 

Quote

Government and aviation sources told BBC News that the quarantine would mean people might be expected to provide an address when they arrive at the border.

Well how the fuck else are you going to police it!! 
 

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Posted (edited)

A conga line party yesterday near Warrington....wonder how many of those at the back half of the line going through the slipstream of snot from the first half will be gone at months end?? 

UK population density and density of its population is a factor in its mortality rate.

PS. Or conversely the more deaths the population density falls and the density of the population rises.

 

Edited by jack_sparrow
PS. Added

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5 minutes ago, mad said:

From the article 

Well how the fuck else are you going to police it!! 
 

Quarantined arrivals in lots of places has been "locked in a hotel" at Govt expense...so UK can't even do this  properly. Beyond help.  

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 A really strange thread involving Labour politics and nationalism over internationalism etc. Maybe describes the large divides that exist in the UK today.

Galloway ex and disgruntled Labour MP.

 

 

 

 

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Once in Downing St always in Downing St. Former Director of Comms, No.10 & Former Head of BBC Westminster.

The most deluded Brexit proposition I have seen to date... "..geography is irrelevant. It’s just the EU excuse to keep us in its orbit." That is serious denial.

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On 5/8/2020 at 9:34 PM, jack_sparrow said:

Next weeks FTA negotiations agenda.

The farce continues.

EXfNdfkWAAAL0V4.jpeg

 

Interesting.....they are also "proposals" not Draft Agreements....big difference.

Maybe a response to EU trade commissioner Phil Hogan accusing the UK of "lacking a plan" and for “very slow progress” plus looking to blame the coronavirus outbreak for any failure to conclude a deal??

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Galloway ex and disgruntled Labour MP.

He’s not far out from David Icke on the list of inconsequential people, he just mumbles on in the background. 

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

"..geography is irrelevant.

Well considering Raabs problem with geography, it’s not really a surprising stance. 
 

Quote

Dominic Raab has come under fire for saying he "hadn't quite understood" how reliant UK trade in goods is on the Dover-Calais crossing.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46142188

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5 minutes ago, mad said:

He’s not far out from David Icke on the list of inconsequential people, he just mumbles on in the background. 

His Holocaust denial has him barred from entering Australia.

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7 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

His Holocaust denial has him barred from entering Australia.

His list of dumbfuckery is long. 

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The Home Office, Priti,  says it will increase financial support to the French to try to tackle the issue.

Last time under May it was 50 Million a year, lets charge that again, and belgium and the Dutch too, so we can get the money back spend on getting the ports ready for brexit.
Will take 10 years though. After that it is profit :)
Otherwise we let the illegals enter the UK waters without any counter measures. Decathlon will be selling a lot of small ribs. And fisherman have to do something if they can not fish in UK waters... running illegals is more profitable then fish I reckon.

The Dover Mp is so funny trying to be like Farage.
https://twitter.com/NatalieElphicke/status/1258699757821796352

PS will only post Brexit stuff and blocked jacko again, previous page a very lengthy quote and then his post made my pc ventilators going haywire. And scrolling a bitch.
So if I double post stuff the Jacko already did post, this is the reason. It is now a few crucial weeks to go...

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I and the whole UK team are looking forward to the third Round of our negotiations with the EU, which will once again take place remotely. The talks begin on Monday and here is the agenda. in PDF, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/883997/High_Level_Agenda_Round_3.pdf
 
As fisheries is on the agenda everyday, curious to see what kif of text they will  ( or have already) propose. A pity the UK wants to keep all in secrecy.
 
Best comment on his announcement on twitter;
Stay strong David. The EU are beginning to panic. Only after the end of June will they concede and treat the UK as a Sovereign Nation.

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45 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Best comment on his announcement on twitter;
Stay strong David. The EU are beginning to panic. Only after the end of June will they concede and treat the UK as a Sovereign Nation.

The level of self assured confidence and self entitlement is fucking astounding, they really have no clue at all!

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27 minutes ago, LeoV said:
I and the whole UK team are looking forward to the third Round of our negotiations with the EU, which will once again take place remotely. The talks begin on Monday and here is the agenda. in PDF, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/883997/High_Level_Agenda_Round_3.pdf
 
As fisheries is on the agenda everyday, curious to see what kif of text they will  ( or have already) propose. A pity the UK wants to keep all in secrecy.
 
Best comment on his announcement on twitter;
Stay strong David. The EU are beginning to panic. Only after the end of June will they concede and treat the UK as a Sovereign Nation.

If you had a slightly higher Jack tolerance level, you wouldn't need to repeat what he has already covered ....

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2 hours ago, cms said:

If you had a slightly higher Jack tolerance level, you wouldn't need to repeat what he has already covered ....

Its my computer that does not like him. If I ignore J I can scroll without a problem a page, not on ignore it just is annoying, not smooth and and takes long time.

So I keep posting, even if its double, but will do it short :

We have shared:
A complete draft Free Trade Agreement
Agreements on: Air transport Air safety Civil nuclear cooperation Energy cooperation Law enforcement Unaccompanied asylum-seeking children Readmissions Social Security 
A Fisheries Framework Agreement.

We only have to wait a week to hear from parties if it is workable or not.

 

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3 hours ago, LeoV said:

 

Otherwise we let the illegals enter the UK waters without any counter measures. Decathlon will be selling a lot of small ribs. And fisherman have to do something if they can not fish in UK waters... running illegals is more profitable then fish I reckon.

going rate was/is somewhere between 2k and 3k per person, depends also on the type of vessel, VIP transfers are at a premium, was considering setting up a monthly run to the Goodwin sands near Ramsgate, 4/5 persons and the month would be good

last week Oostende police were called by an inhabitant noticing them that in his street about 5/6 guys were standing around a car, talking, opening car and closing, as this is against lockdown regs police went to look : couple paki's, couple iraqi's and an afghani arrested on suspicion of people smuggling as in the car there were a couple of inflatable ribs and a couple of outboards, stupid is as stupid does.

conveniently enough there is a Decathlon in Dunkirk (Grand Synthe, convenient) and Calais, if they are clever they stock up, as it is indeed likely that if our cross channel friends don't play friendly they will see more of a tendency to not bother about those human beings craving for the land of milk, honey and no ID cards.(and Wayne will be happy about the ultra low wage slaves)

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4 minutes ago, Albatros said:

there were a couple of inflatable ribs and a couple of outboards, stupid is as stupid does.

It is so simple to cross with nice weather, and only have to reach UK waters (15 KM) to be brought into the UK. Does not give the coastguard much time to catch them (if they want to catch them et all).

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Yet another little oversight by Farage, Wayne and pals, border control works much better when both sides of the fence cooperate, telling your neighbours that you want to go it alone has consequences. 

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20 minutes ago, LeoV said:

Its my computer that does not like him. If I ignore J I can scroll without a problem a page, not on ignore it just is annoying, not smooth and and takes long time.

Valid point, my iPad struggles at times uploading all the data posted. 
Maybe a happy middle ground can be found. 

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  ^ Ditto, definitely

 

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Don't think that many politicians like Merkel and others still think much about Brexit. Priority is to save the EU, especially germany needs clients in good shape within the EU, so there is a lot thinking going on on how to help Spain or Italy to come back onto the feets. The UK has just been far to slow to implement actions against Corona, it will take a very, very long time until they can come back to work, or ease some corona rules, cause the virus will hit back immediately. To look at what happens in germany and think the UK can do the same just 14 days later is as crazy as the whole Brexit Story. Most of the UK economy will be destroyed before end of transition, so there will not many clients be left over  in the UK, it might just not be important to keep them on the client list. Then comes the constant shitfuckery about things like Irish Sea Border, Belfast and level playing field. I believe most EU politicians have already given up and think: ok, if they want to have no deal they can get no deal. We just can't hear that cherry picking bullshit anymore. Wait and see how long it takes after december until the UK knocks on some doors in Brussels... , in the meantime we concentrate on far more important things like the EU itself.. 

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EU still would be smart enough to see if they can cherry pick from their wish list. Every trade done that is beneficial to both sides is a plus. everything that hurts the Eu, you can forget a deal/agreement on that. But friendly feelings for the UK have gone. Many businesses here just want to go back to normal situation and hate Brexit.
The ones that care are logistics and fisherman here. On EU scale, the Airbus, Rolls Royce engines (German owned) and some defence stuff from the UK is important though.

So many politicians and most business do not care to much, it is annoying but that is it. The public in the Eu does not care either. So the Eu negotiators have almost a free hand.

On the UK side it seems all they do is focus on the US, and never ask the EU anything. show them the UK does not need the EU. But half of their business and public do care for a good deal with the EU. It is still splitting the country. UK with Get Brexit done now is still in a very polarizing state. Whatever they do many people will be pissed.
UK negotiators have their hands tied as Vote Leave hardliners are in command of the government.

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15 hours ago, mad said:

Yet another little oversight by Farage, Wayne and pals, border control works much better when both sides of the fence cooperate, telling your neighbours that you want to go it alone has consequences. 

And core of Brexit was border control and less immigrants. I wonder when the first illegal immigrants will be of EU origin. Can think off Polish people trying it, as their family could be legal in the UK and they just want to visit/work a bit and go home. Will they be allowed a tourist visa, work and will they overstay ? Bordercontrol will have its hands full sorting that out, or wil they just cave in and let them in. They need fruit pickers next year too.

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26 minutes ago, LeoV said:

They need fruit pickers next year too.

And a lot of carers and health professionals and.......

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15 minutes ago, mad said:

And a lot of carers and health professionals and.......

Not sure how many will want to come and be murdered by Boris.

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Quote

The coronavirus pandemic underlines the need for greater international solidarity, including more cooperation between Britain and the rest of Europe, all 27 European Union ambassadors and high commissioners to the UK have asserted in an unprecedented joint statement.

The statement celebrating Europe Day also represents a reassertion of EU unity and the continuing relevance of European values within the UK.

The self-confident statement, published in the Guardian, comes as negotiations on the terms of a new trading relationship between Europe and the UK hit difficulties. The talks must be resolved by the end of the year. The EU’s trade commissioner, Phil Hogan, warned on Thursday that the UK was preparing to walk away from Brexit trade talks and blame the coronavirus.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/09/coronavirus-british-eu-solidarity-vital-ambassadors-europe-trade?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

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1 hour ago, cms said:

Not sure how many will want to come and be murdered by Boris.

Perfect, many EU countries need medical personnel, one competitor less. It is better to work in Germany, and closer to homeland too.

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The UK is about to shoot itself in both feet | Financial Times

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UK did send its paper in on fish, coastal state and no EU involvement in setting quota's but outside office. The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. One problem the US and Russia and a few distant countries (Canada, Australia) are a member, 20 of them. You can not trust US or Russia or UK not to play political games with it. even if it functioning a-political at the moment. Some of them have no problem blowing up an international institute. But the EU used their advice for setting quota's in the past.

In the text; lots of UK will "consider", where the EU wants "shall". And a lot of bureaucracy for licenses etc.


Will be interesting to see this unfold. Fishing community is under heavy pressure now due to closing of restaurants and hotels and tourism. Could be a wasted season on both sides of the North Sea.

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2 hours ago, mad said:

The UK is about to shoot itself in both feet | Financial Times

You would think someone who went through the "troubles" would know to take off his socks first...reduces the infection problems.

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7 hours ago, LeoV said:

EU still would be smart enough to see if they can cherry pick from their wish list. Every trade done that is beneficial to both sides is a plus. everything that hurts the Eu, you can forget a deal/agreement on that. But friendly feelings for the UK have gone. Many businesses here just want to go back to normal situation and hate Brexit.

There is very little Brexit news. The only recent thing coming close is the UK flying covid samples to the US for testing because the UK labs fked something up.

And that is a nice summary of the whole situation. Asking an EU lab is obviously a step too far. (With a bit of planning and given the current utilization rate in Germany [~300k/1M per week] the results could be delivered before a plane lands in the US...)
The only other relevant news coming to my mind was that the EU asked if the UK wanted an extension, any kind of extension, because of the covid situation and the answer was a resounding no.

Looks to me like we are in "Give them enough rope" territory.
With the new post covid financial support scheme in the EU the cost of a bad Brexit went from a lot of money to disappearing into the noise. Heck, the travel restrictions and increased border controls front loaded a lot of expenses and hardship on the EU UK border. Just never relax the rules and it will be an easy transition. :rolleyes: 

The only problem is and remains the NI border. But that is something we all knew from the beginning of the Brexit saga.

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Well having seen him live.....................we’re fucked!!

 

What a useless sack of waffling shit!

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^^having seen same, but from a cross channel perspective ... wasn't all that convincing, certainly not considering the build up and hyping that "Boris is going to address the nation" of last days 'but then you have to ask yourself what could be convincing ? all along the man has been trying to emulate a Churchillian attitude and rethoric, but that's just a tad too much for him. His demeanor and body language compared to a couple of months ago was even somewhat an attitude of resignation, the Waynians will disagree of course, for those it was ok.

Striking was of course not one word about brexit and all that it entails, one might say this is not the subject today, but it will be a rude awakening when the virus gets somewhat under control and suddenly this other capital topic comes on top of the headlines again.

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1 hour ago, Albatros said:

^^having seen same, but from a cross channel perspective ... wasn't all that convincing, certainly not considering the build up and hyping that "Boris is going to address the nation" of last days 'but then you have to ask yourself what could be convincing ? all along the man has been trying to emulate a Churchillian attitude and rethoric, but that's just a tad too much for him. His demeanor and body language compared to a couple of months ago was even somewhat an attitude of resignation, the Waynians will disagree of course, for those it was ok.

Striking was of course not one word about brexit and all that it entails, one might say this is not the subject today, but it will be a rude awakening when the virus gets somewhat under control and suddenly this other capital topic comes on top of the headlines again.

Brexit will be a long gone deal way before this shits over, it’ll be 12 months time when people finally wake up and see how fucked things are.........and that’ll just be the start of it. 

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3 hours ago, mad said:

Well having seen him live.....................we’re fucked!!

Yep, he combed his hair, you are fucked.

Lots of action on Brexit, but all in secrecy. It is all calculation of possibilities. Covid changed a few parameters. You can argue that in October the real deal will be done, but if UK then still wants a very limited deal then there is a lot of time waisted. So this weeks the UK has to show something.

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5 hours ago, mad said:

Well having seen him live.....................we’re fucked!!

 

What a useless sack of waffling shit!

Just "STAY ALERT" Mad !

And sing "Land of Hope and Glory" while you wash your hands...

 

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One cannot but :) when reading this Greek/English humour in the Guardian:

“Johnson’s management of the pandemic has been almost Mediterranean in style, flippant and carefree,”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/10/greeks-marvel-at-britains-covid-chaos-as-their-lockdown-lifts-after-150-deaths

 

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2 hours ago, Fiji Bitter said:

One cannot but :) when reading this Greek/English humour in the Guardian:

“Johnson’s management of the pandemic has been almost Mediterranean in style, flippant and carefree,”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/10/greeks-marvel-at-britains-covid-chaos-as-their-lockdown-lifts-after-150-deaths

 

Add that to the 

Quote

Italians are looking on aghast at the UK's coronavirus response

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/10/italians-uk-coronavirus-response-boris-johnson-government-covid-19?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

Fuck it, I’m off to see what Trump has fucked up in the last few hours, might as well watch a true master of the art. 

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2 minutes ago, The Main Man said:

This pretty much sums it up!

 

If only they’d recorded that, would have saved me wasting 14 minutes of my life last night. 
 

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13 hours ago, mad said:

Well having seen him live.....................we’re fucked!!

 

10 hours ago, Albatros said:

^^having seen same, but from a cross channel perspective ... wasn't all that convincing, certainly not considering the build up and hyping that "Boris is going to address the nation" of last days 'but then you have to ask yourself what could be convincing ? all along the man has been trying to emulate a Churchillian attitude and rethoric, but that's just a tad too much for him. 

 

9 hours ago, LeoV said:

Yep, he combed his hair, you are fucked.

Lots of action on Brexit, but all in secrecy. It is all calculation of possibilities. Covid changed a few parameters. 

 This content largely a "copy and past" from a CoVid US Trump election prospects thread, so not much effort for me to post here where my appraisal applies equally.

It is full of pictures and original content but as Leo has me on ignore so his scrolling time is not inconvenienced, he needn't get his hair in a tizz.

So yes Mad ".we’re  fucked !!" and Albatross you say "emulate a Churchillian attitude and rethoric,"  well history of 1945 election highlighted below may well be a guide to Johnson's potential Churchillian undoing.

I disagree with Leo's "Covid changed a few parameters," for Brexit. IMO CoVid could kill Brexit stone dead, subject to publics CoVid reaction (a difficult thing to do in UK) in due course. 

So UK specific.

- A new catchy slogan that is so obtuse it requires Downing St to issue a detailed explanation, thus demonstrating the "slogan" is useless.

EXpwENkXkAAZPUf.thumb.jpeg.e3d6ed0161dcf20d44f12d168a02182b.jpegEXpwENgWAAAq9JQ.thumb.jpeg.06764cdd3548b5f93bbb0b3eea078aa3.jpeg

So schools are still off, but bloody-minded employers are being told to "actively encourage" their employees to return to work as it's all under control. No haircuts, pubs or restaurants but maybe if that action happened in a factory or construction site that is OK as long as you walked there.

Then there is "stop" RED going to "full steam ahead" GREEN slogan border??? All clear as fuckin Mud.

 

Done so on purpose to transfer inevitable outcome responsibility to the public away from the Govt. The country is still not equipped to lift suppression unless at a large cost. This is identical to the US.

- Only applies to England for using the devolved power I tabled upthread, NI, Scotland and Wales have refused to follow London, remaining cautious. Outcome aligns with US but convese applied with Trump dumping responsibility on US states as there is no national response so 1,600 Pensivania Avenue avoiding responsibility.

Scotland: Stay Home
Wales: Stay Home
Northern Ireland: Stay Home
England: Do what you fuckin like, but pretty please it would be nice if you stayed home as much as possible if you had half a brain, which many of you have demonstrated already don't. 

England contains 85% of the UK population. According to EuroMo's latest update on excess deaths England is the only country in Europe with “extremely high excess mortality" and is running 2 weeks behind Italy.

EXq522FXgAAaFpD.jpeg.ac5e7d0bf3faf3c2e7ffbd8a02d5ac43.jpeg

- Lots of Brexit irony abounds. Reduce the movement of people but in a pandemic open the place wide up and increase the movement.

So in short we have this.

IMG_20200511_163150.jpg.adb7c0402cf4066cfa38fa8313f61023.jpg

Finally to the other thread post. I see the "R" word falls off every Ministers lips as though the are suddenly world renoun epidemiologists. Downing St have even produced a video that makes no real sense showing the COVID Alert Level can be anywhere from 1-5. 

EXrvRJnXkAQgFvh.jpeg.d737b11a9b430bad96492befed9229da.jpeg

You will see a reference below to Contact/Trace Apps. From listening to Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick yesterday the UK have already abandoned their "centralised" App and are already building a "decentralised" version like everyone else. They just haven't admitted that yet.

The question of NI and NoI mentioned upthread over which App OR people need both, will be interesting to watch in parallel with Brexit Irish Protocol negotiations and NI devolved powers.

_________________________________________

Insert UK, Johnson and 4 Unions  instead of US, Trump and US states this appraisal is identical.

If the American public eventually look at virus responses and outcomes internationaly and ask themselves an honest question at the ballot box.

It is arguably too early now to ask that question as Trump is in "disinformation" mode Mach 10 and currently public opinion is influenced by "we know we have done badly" but they still don't want their Government either State or in Washington to "fail." That view will or should change when the worst is in the rear mirror.

An analogy to how public opinions can "turn on a sixpence" may be Winston Churchill having won the Battle of Britain and guided Britain out of WWII, was immediately kicked out of office at the 1945 election at the end of the war. The Conservatives Party may had won the war, but they simply lost the electoral “ground war” where people wanted to look forward with solid policies to support that, not tired rhetoric.

So to the core of what should be guiding decisions on the easing of suppression or lock-downs using my reply to this statement from @dfw_sailor .

12 hours ago, dfw_sailor said:

There are all sorts of data challenges in Texas, no least being there is still no publicly available widespread test data available. It is still a case of you dont get a test unless you have a temp and another symptom in most cases. So Number of tests vs cases arent much help in Texas (and not much in the way of antibody testing is being done anyway).

"Number of tests vs cases arent much help .." 

That is a misnomer clinically but NOT statistically providing you don't change the data set midway through. The trend line won't change. It will change if you suddenly start doing more tests, making the previous data useless. Trouble is that data set is changing.

This is the biggest problem around the world today as testing rates increase and countries grapple when to ease suppression. The problem is not the maths, it is Government's abusing the maths and not doing their job properly. 

They are looking to have Reproduction or "R" fall below 1. "R" is the average number of secondary cases generated per case. Or in other words one person infects less than one person. Excellent.

However "R" is an average value, so it doesn't make sense to focus on "R" when case counts get very low below 1. Why???

1. The significant delays between infection, the onset of symptomatic disease, and hospitalisation, as well as further delays to these events being reported totally screws with this method. 

AND

2. You answered it. The exceptions.

Another possibility is that nursing homes and long term hospital patients are skewing the death rate. Ive seen data that suggests 30% of fatalities are coming from institutional situations.

Failure to recognise transmission is also being being driven by super-spreading events particularly those outside hospitals. For instance the UK where around one-third of deaths in care homes because of a monumental fuck up. To provide for additional health care capacity, the elderly were removed from hospitals to care homes, some taking the virus with them and care homes not equipped to defend the virus such as PPE and testing. 

EXPtwzYWkAYLDQs.png.bfc6edc3c152e8eee8b5513497c53e93.png

The Solution.

Estimate "R" from cases, hospitalisations, and deaths, noting that each has different delays we need to account. Therefore try and see the moment of infection, not just see cases appearing later. Because most of these delays occur over a period of several days, and people are infectious for several days, it generates statistical uncertainty that makes precise daily estimates of "R" very difficult.

Further Refine the Solution by Tracking behavioural changes

To make "R" more real-time sample adults about their contact patterns on the previous day. Then start comparing measured contact patterns during the various “lockdown” responses to patterns of social contact made. I won't go into the maths (see linky).

This can be via rudimentary sampling or better still increase the data set of adherence with public health interventions and behaviour changes for all household members. See Table below.

Using data properly and tracking behavioural changes can give a more rapid assessment for the gauging the impact of physical distancing measures proposed or underway than just routine epidemiological surveillance.

That said the electronic Contact/Trace App method of surveillance is not to be scoffed at. This electronic means has been in use by many countries, many since the beginning in various forms including say geo fencing for those in isolation to symptomatic reporting (some counties an offence and fine not to) etc.

This is effective providing it has a high take up rate (if not then made mandatory) PLUS there are sufficient staff to man it. There are countries to date that satisfy all this criteria. You only have to look at national comparative mortality rates to work out which ones.

To conclude. Actuaries and Statiticians should be running with suppression or "Lockdown" strategies of dealing with an epidemic NOT just epidemiologists at this point.

The ONLY WAY that can be done is with a NATIONAL response. A virus doesn't care about borders unless they are controlled.

Guess what is going to happen to the most advanced economy on earth and those countries with a similiar approach even though they are the best equiped to undertake it, but aren't??

Table - Indicators of adherence with public health interventions and behaviour changes for all household members reported by participants in a Behavioral Change Study to refine "R" in "real time."

IMG_20200511_130109.thumb.jpg.baacd6b4372fae3e99bc29351af232a4.jpgIMG_20200511_130148.jpg.56d824299e3c5f323cd56cea6f74f0bc.jpg

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Very good read with a lot of nuggets;

No extension;
For a Brexiteer asking the EU to extend the transition would amount to admitting that there could be circumstances in which being in the EU’s single market and customs union is better than being outside them. Even if staying in was only for a short period of time and in circumstances of extreme disruption brought on by a global pandemic, it would still be an admission that there was at least some value in EU membership.

And once you admit that, then the absolutism of the Brexit arguments disappear.
---------------
why Brexit is so fascinating for some;
In modern trade history Brexit is the first time a country has begun negotiations asking for less favourable terms than it now has. Normally, in trade negotiations the parties are trying to improve the terms of trade between them, to get closer to one another.
But the UK has made it clear that it wants to put distance between itself and the EU, to put barriers to trade in goods and services in place where none now exist so it can exercise complete and sovereign control over its “borders, laws and money”.
--------------

On demanding the Eu must change its negotiation;
Reading this you are left with the impression that the UK appears to believe that it is the EU that is leaving the UK, and not the other way around. If the EU wants a deal with the UK then it had better change its tune, and sharpish.

You can also read it as a cry of desperation. “We desperately need a deal. Can’t you cut us a little slack. Help us out here.”
--------------------
On LPF; The UK’s position is akin to a team saying, “we’d like to play in your league, but we want to play by our own rules, not yours”. Such a request would be declined, politely or otherwise.
-----------------------
Brexiteers know they were lucky to win the referendum in 2016 and know that sentiment has probably moved against them since then. They want to make it as difficult as possible for any future government to move closer to the EU and put as many barriers in the way to rejoining as they can. They want to “lock Brexit in”. Why should the EU facilitate that?

https://beergbrexit.blog/2020/05/04/can-there-be-deal-with-no-transition-extension/

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According to Professor Usherwood at Surry Uni some things about the UK's negotiating position that don't stack up.

Amazing job distilling a shambolic mess into just 4 items. 

1. Ireland Protocol - Mark of UK future intent, make EU less flexible. (ie. IMO the default of GB goods entering NI being automatically regarded as entering EU could go here or any 3 below).

2. Incomplete Texts - No engagement and encourages delays.

3. Incomplete Work Domestically for UK Deal on own terms - Lack of seriousness about deadline, more flexible than appears and or encouraging EU to push for different terms. 

4. Ditto No Deal - Weakens claim to being able to walk away encouraging more EU demands. 

EXuc8TfXsAUUi83.jpeg

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Gove did say CoVid was a dry run for No Deal...it will go off without a hitch then....can you use a Beanie if the shops don't have a mask??

Masks apparently only one of many changes made in less than 24 hours. Hot off the press - 60 pages. Maybe Johnson only read the 1st draft?

OUR PLAN TO REBUILD: The UK Government’s; COVID-19 Recovery Strategy

IMG_20200511_233001.jpg

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On 5/10/2020 at 4:00 PM, KC375 said:

You would think someone who went through the "troubles" would know to take off his socks first...reduces the infection problems.

And if he'd really been paying attention he would know that it's the kneecaps.

Or, for the "Belfast Six-pack", kneecaps, elbows and ankles.

As I understand the meaning of the phrase "shoot yourself in the foot", it's not something done by accident; it was a practice employed by WWI officers to give themselves a non-fatal wound that would get them sent home.

 

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10 minutes ago, Black Sox said:

And if he'd really been paying attention he would know that it's the kneecaps.

Or, for the "Belfast Six-pack", kneecaps, elbows and ankles.

As I understand the meaning of the phrase "shoot yourself in the foot", it's not something done by accident; it was a practice employed by WWI officers to give themselves a non-fatal wound that would get them sent home.

 

Thomas Barrow went for the shot to the hand to get sent home but an “accidental” self inflicted shot to the foot would relatively easy to explain...as it was so common ...but seems to have become less so with it representing less than 1% of US selfinflicted gunshot wounds.

However American men may have been trying to escape battling the inlaws...

gunfootchart.jpg

"Results:...1.0% were self-inflicted gunshot wounds to the foot.... Those who shot themselves in the foot were significantly more likely ... to be male and married . As the festive season approached, the number of incidents increased; November and December were peak months for shooting oneself in the foot.

... Particular caution must be taken during the festive season to avoid being caught under the missing toe."

My parents were physicians. As I child I was dragged along to one of their professional social functions (I must have driven off the last babysitter). I overheard them chatting with a leader for a large hospital system. They were discussing the brilliance of Irish Doctors (my great grandfather taught at TCD so a favourite topic of my mom) – apparently Irish surgeons were particularly sought after in US hospitals for their skill at joint reconstruction.

(given my age at the time I might have not distinguished between Dr. humour and serious discussion but it seems plausible Dublin would be a good place to practice working on that particular injury)

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46 minutes ago, Black Sox said:

Or, for the "Belfast Six-pack", kneecaps, elbows and ankles.

Every days a school day in SA. :D

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EXvNHVyWAAAPEhJ?format=jpg&name=small

And this guy is a hard Brexiteer and begged Italy and Poland to kick the UK out of EU, and now angry at Wales in his own union :)

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8 minutes ago, LeoV said:

EXvNHVyWAAAPEhJ?format=jpg&name=small

And this guy is a hard Brexiteer and begged Italy and Poland to kick the UK out of EU, and now angry at Wales in his own union :)

I think Brexit must be understood in the context of personality disorders. One trait common to many personality disorders is weak or non-existent empathy – the ability to understand how others might feel. In that context it is not surprising that Brexiteers feel the need for, indeed heart felt right for self determination and the control of their own actions without imposition by the needs of others. Given a fundamental lack of empathy its not surprising that Brexiteers could not imagine others – like the Welsh, the Scots or the Irish might have similar feelings and needs.

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And of the EU. Brexiteers still think the EU will fold. But that is dreaming.

The UK is showing its first backtracking;

The draft proposal from the U.K. on fisheries might provide a possible way out of the current impasse. Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove announced on Tuesday that the U.K. will publish a proposal paper, which they sent to the EU over the weekend, the U.K.'s negotiator David Frost announced on Twitter. This was something London had long refused to do unless Brussels dropped its demands on fish quotas.

Downing Street insisted it had not blinked first, although a spokesman for Prime Minister Boris Johnson was on Wednesday unable to point to any concessions from Brussels. But of course, fisheries is only one of the contentious issues between the U.K. and the EU, the other being the level playing field provisions, governance and security.

https://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-starts-next-round-of-brexit-talks-with-low-expectations/

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4 hours ago, KC375 said:

...snip/

They were discussing the brilliance of Irish Doctors (my great grandfather taught at TCD so a favourite topic of my mom) – apparently Irish surgeons were particularly sought after in US hospitals for their skill at joint reconstruction.

(given my age at the time I might have not distinguished between Dr. humour and serious discussion but it seems plausible Dublin would be a good place to practice working on that particular injury)

 

My memory is that it was the medics at the Royal Victoria Hospital in Belfast who had the reputation for reconstruction. But I'm happy to take the credit on behalf of Dublin doctors B)

Fun fact: The Europa Hotel in Belfast has the distinction of being the most bombed hotel. Anywhere. Ever.

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2 hours ago, LeoV said:

EXvNHVyWAAAPEhJ?format=jpg&name=small

And this guy is a hard Brexiteer and begged Italy and Poland to kick the UK out of EU, and now angry at Wales in his own union :)

I’m crying with laughter at this. :lol::lol:
 

Wayne will be along shortly to tell us all why Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland should fuck off as well, whilst starting a new border recruitment service!  
 

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2 minutes ago, Black Sox said:

My memory is that it was the medics at the Royal Victoria Hospital in Belfast who had the reputation for reconstruction. But I'm happy to take the credit on behalf of Dublin doctors B)

Fun fact: The Europa Hotel in Belfast has the distinction of being the most bombed hotel. Anywhere. Ever.

I'm sure you are right about RVH Belfast, a funny quirk, the conversation I referenced happened at a different RVH (I suspect there are more than a couple named after Victoria). My recollection was it was Irish Dr.s in general. The Dublin just slipped into my consciousness because my mom often spoke with some reverence of her grandfather with the Trinity College connection. My mom had a lot of great Irish stories that I believe she believed. I've confirmed the TCD connection with ancestory.com - and a visit to Dublin where I saw some of his anatomical drawings. Unfortunately less luck with the more colourful distant relatives like the famous Irish poet and the leader of an English revolt. I wish I hadn't checked as I have fewer colourful stories to pass on to my progeny.

The Europa has had it’s challenges in its fifty years. If you are going to pick an hotel to be bombed the most it helps to have a prolonged conflict to spread the bombings and rehab work out over. If you did all 30+ in one go,...

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10 hours ago, Black Sox said:

Fun fact: The Europa Hotel in Belfast has the distinction of being the most bombed hotel. Anywhere. Ever.

Would be 2 or 3 dozen times. 

Fun Fact. One occasion the IRA simply walked in and put a box on the reception desk with a bomb in it and the word ‘IRA’ scrawled on it.

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This is a very very good read ....the UK don't have incompetence at wheel but something far more dangerous.......Brexit revisted to divide country once again and using CoVid Brexit is accepted without a whimper ...... some extracts.

"This is much more a political moment than a public health moment.

Commentators and academics seem bemused, the only possible explanation being that the government is incompetent.

But actually, I think it’s very deliberate — and if their ultimate goal is to retain power rather than save lives — very smart.

 If opposition leaders and the media don’t recognise this, and respond with greater intelligence than was present in the Brexit debate, lives are quite seriously on the line."

 Johnson’s message is very deliberate and very dangerous: here’s how to combat it

 

PS. What would you do if you were trying to frame this as a situation where you were accountable to direct feedback from the public - but avoid as much scrutiny as possible??

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40 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

..the UK don't have incompetence at wheel but something far more dangerous.......Brexit revisted to divide country once again..

It is adding up 

 

 

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Two letters from the Chair of the ONS pissed off at the Government use of statistics, one from 2 1/2 years ago you might remember. 

EXv3O7CXYAoyHnz.jpeg

EXwg-4AXsAERHpd.jpeg

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Nothing to surprise here anymore.

On the day there is no ConVid briefing suddenly 8k bodies have been found by the ONS pushing official toll up to over 40k.

In context half the US deaths but only one-fifth their population or worse six times Germanys deaths yet four fifths their population. 

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14 hours ago, mad said:

I’m crying with laughter at this.

And for Shrewsbury the nearest beach is not even in Wales.

More fun;
House of Lords;
The Brexit paradox: UK will need to increase its presence in Brussels significantly.
https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/176/european-union-committee/news/139608/the-brexit-paradox-uk-will-need-to-increase-its-presence-in-brussels-significantly/

15.The UK has, through the UK Representation to the EU (UKRep), sought to maximise the UK’s influence over the EU institutions and Member States. After Brexit UKRep will need to adjust to no longer being in the room, and losing the benefits of automatic access to information and the formal and informal dialogue with the EU institutions and Member States that membership brings. UKRep’s new status as a third country mission will present a different set of diplomatic challenges, in finding new ways to exert UK influence, gain access to information, and build relationships. The experience of other third countries suggests that the UK Government will, paradoxically, need to enhance its diplomatic presence in Brussels post-Brexit, and ensure that its officials are equipped with a different set of skills. We welcome the steps already taken to increase UKRep’s staffing, to train its officials, and to adapt its structure and focus: this must remain a top priority in coming months, and the Government must ensure that UKRep has sufficient staff and financial resources to undertake this crucial work. (Paragraph 79)

------------------------
According to this they need an office, or multiple offices in Brussels. So I think; no EU office in NI, no UK offices in the EU please.

 

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19 minutes ago, LeoV said:

More fun;
House of Lords;
The Brexit paradox: UK will need to increase its presence in Brussels significantly.
https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/176/european-union-committee/news/139608/the-brexit-paradox-uk-will-need-to-increase-its-presence-in-brussels-significantly/

.....According to this they need an office, or multiple offices in Brussels. So I think; no EU office in NI, no UK   offices in the EU please.

There is a very poor understanding in the UK about the presence of non EU countries  interaction with the EU even though they have no EU FTA. In fact some predate the UK's relationship with the EU.

Australias first Ambassador to the European Economic Community took office in March 1962 over a decade before the UK joined. There are many agreements and bilateral arrangements such as the Australia-EU Crisis Management Agreement and EU-Australia Leadership Forum etc.

UK will need a presence in Brussels infinitely larger than the EU's in Nth Ireland. 

 

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And extension after June is wrought with difficulties.
The June extension deadline really does appear to be hard according to Jean-Claude Piris. He asks the question whether the two sides could still change their minds in the second half of the year, and goes through the legal options. The withdrawal agreement itself is clear. It offers no legal basis for a late decision. He also pours cold water on the other theoretical avenues, like an amendment of the agreement. That option is not foreseen under Art. 50. The withdrawal agreement is final. You reach further agreements under it, but you can't amend it. 

What about the great fudge clause in EU law, Art. 352 TFEU? This essentially says that the EU can do whatever it likes even if the treaties have not provided a legal basis for it. Piris says this does not apply to withdrawal because of Art. 50. Furthermore, Art. 352 is explicitly not intended to be used as an instrument to widen the EU's powers. And the German constitutional court keeps a watchful eye on that.

This leaves an amendment to the withdrawal agreement under international law. While that is always possible in treaties between two states, it does not apply to treaty between a state and the EU. And the withdrawal agreement itself forecloses that option. 

So, this is really it. The decision has to be taken by June.

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The air is now dripping with Brexit hypocrisy  ...Senior Brexiteer Cheerleader Ratcliffe urging from his tax exile in Monaco that the UK must free itself of the EU and strike out on its own ... ...hits a global economic headwind himself and puts his begging hand out.

An energy business part-owned by Sir Jim Ratcliffe, one of Britain's richest men, has appealed to the government for an emergency loan amid a slump in oil demand triggered by the coronavirus crisis.

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"World Comparison of Deaths" slide has now dissapeared from the daily Downing St Briefings.

The day the ONS put the UK toll at 40,496 but Govt using a 32,692 figure.

The strategy being such an unmitigated success no need to boast about that anymore. The propaganda machine is very well oiled.

Slides to accompany Coronavirus Press Conference: 12 May 2020

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A US FTA is being spun as a Government assistance measure for businesses hit by ConVid.

This coincides with Day 1 of EU/UK FTA negotiation round.  

 

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Now it's getting weird. Peter Bone is a Tory MP and Brexiteer, not a late convert but campaigned for it. 

As Bercow used to call him.. Peter Booone tears Boris a new arse hole over taking cover and avoiding Parliament.

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This I haven't a clue what category it fits into.

Is it "Comedy" with a politician absolutely shit scared he is going to say the wrong word and look like a dick and does.....OR . .... "Contempt" with a politician his eyes ice-cold, no charm, just a series of bad-tempered and monosyllabic grunts knowing the reporter just wants him to fuck it up????

 

 

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Posted (edited)
On 5/8/2020 at 9:34 PM, jack_sparrow said:

Next weeks FTA negotiations agenda.

The farce continues.

EXfNdfkWAAAL0V4.jpeg

 

On 5/12/2020 at 5:18 AM, LeoV said:

And of the EU. Brexiteers still think the EU will fold. But that is dreaming.

The UK is showing its first backtracking;

The draft proposal from the U.K. on fisheries might provide a possible way out of the current impasse. Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove announced on Tuesday that the U.K. will publish a proposal paper, which they sent to the EU over the weekend, the U.K.'s negotiator David Frost announced on Twitter. This was something London had long refused to do unless Brussels dropped its demands on fish quotas.

Downing Street insisted it had not blinked first, although a spokesman for Prime Minister Boris Johnson was on Wednesday unable to point to any concessions from Brussels.....

https://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-starts-next-round-of-brexit-talks-with-low-expectations/

So from the above.

Day 1 of fishing negotiations yesterday and nothing on the airwaves I could find. 

My guess the UK have simply tabled an indicative Total Catch/Quota Schedule or Formula Year One only for the EEZ inclusive of the UK, EU27, Iceland, Denmark (rep Faroe Is) and Norway, but the latter three not at the table.

That is light years from the EU's position who are also looking for a long term agreed philosophy mirroring the existing CFP, so yesterday has gone nowhere. Day 2 today and a breakthrough before this round ends tomorrow???

So I thought this post about the UK's negotiating position not stacking up might be instructive as to fishing with regard to the UK's Incomplete Work Domestically regardless of deal or no deal.

On 5/11/2020 at 7:43 PM, jack_sparrow said:

According to Professor Usherwood at Surry Uni some things about the UK's negotiating position that don't stack up.

Amazing job distilling a shambolic mess into just 4 items. 

1. Ireland Protocol - Mark of UK future intent, make EU less flexible. (ie. IMO the default of GB goods entering NI being automatically regarded as entering EU could go here or any 3 below).

2. Incomplete Texts - No engagement and encourages delays.

3. Incomplete Work Domestically for UK Deal on own terms - Lack of seriousness about deadline, more flexible than appears and or encouraging EU to push for different terms. 

4. Ditto No Deal - Weakens claim to being able to walk away encouraging more EU demands. 

EXuc8TfXsAUUi83.jpeg

The UK's Marine Management Organisation (MMO) actually published under May's watch this of all things which was updated last October in line with Johnsons oven ready deal.

4 Feb 2019 (updated 23 Oct) - MMO - How to export fish for human consumption from 1 January 2021, what documents you may need and customs rules to follow.

Low and behold it contains nothing about the provisions in the Irish Protocol, where with No Deal the default is GB fish entering NI being automatically regarded as entering EU. So regardless of vessel registration being NI/Scotland/Wales/England they are treated no differently in NI than if landed in France. That will be interesting for NI fisherman, clearing customs in their own home port. Hope none come from a Unionist/Nationalist paramilitary upbringing.

This backs up Professor Usherwood view that the UK are encouraging delays, are more flexible than it appears OR weakens any claim to the UK being able to walk away with no deal encouraging more EU demands. 

In the unlikely event there is a Fishing breakthrough today or tomorrow then a EU FTA is still in play. If not it has to be dead in the water.

Edited by jack_sparrow
Iceland and Faroe Islands rep by Denmark added

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2 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

My guess the UK have simply tabled an indicative Total Catch/Quota Schedule or Formula Year One only for the EEZ inclusive of the UK, EU27, Denmark and Norway, but the latter two not at the table.

Isn't Denmark represented by EU as it is part of EU27?

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15 minutes ago, Upp3 said:

Isn't Denmark represented by EU as it is part of EU27?

Sorry meant Denmark representing Faroe Islands (part of Denmark) but not in the EU. Thanks I added that and missed Iceland.

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And can the UK force other countries to except their standards ?
https://www.nfuonline.com/news/latest-news/mps-urged-to-speak-up-for-food-and-farming-during-crucial-agriculture-bill-debate/

MPs urged to speak up for food and farming during crucial Agriculture Bill debate.

The NFU has convened a huge coalition of farming, environmental and animal welfare organisations to write to all 650 MPs and urge them to ensure the new Agriculture Bill includes vital safeguards which ensures the food we import in any potential trade deals meet the same high standards of animal welfare and environmental protection as is expected of UK food producers.

The Bill returns for its final Report stages today (Wednesday) before heading to the House of Lords. It will result in the biggest reform and transformation of British agriculture and food production since 1945.

The letter to MPs asks them to speak up for British food and farming in today’s House of Commons debate.

-------------------

Now it will be interesting to watch the ardent Brexiteer MP's trying to defend this, as it makes a deal with the US much harder.
And so funny if they defend it, as the Eu wants the same in their negotiation, but that is unfair.

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And to UK fishing ports where EU vessels land their catch. 

The cost of extra customs bureaucrats and infrastructure where there isn't any now is probably more than the entire value of the UK sea fishing industry annual catch (£989M in 2018) caught both inside and outside its own waters.

26 Sept 2019 UK - Marine Management Organisation (MMO) UK Sea Fisheries Statistics 2018.

And from those stats just shows the lunacy attached to the ditch the UK are plowing. Without the EU either as a market or fishing waters source they are fucked along with the UK consumer. 

- UK vessels landed 698,000 tonnes of sea fish into the UK and abroad with a value of £989 million.

- UK fleet landings abroad 272,000 tonnes mostly mackerel.

- Mackerel landings 27% of UK fleet landings.

- The Scottish and Northern Irish fleets caught mainly pelagic fish. The English landed mainly demersal species and the Welsh caught mostly shellfish.

- The UK fishing fleet remained seventh largest in the EU in terms of vessel numbers, with the second largest capacity and fourth largest engine power.

- 74% of the quantity landed by UK fleet was caught by vessels over 24 metres in length which accounted for only 4% of the total number of UK vessels. These vessels tend to catch lower value pelagic fish outside UK waters.

- Around 12,000 fishermen were active in the UK. Approximately 2,400 were part-time.

- Scottish vessels accounted for 64% of the quantity of landings by the UK fleet while English vessels accounted for 27%.

- Peterhead (Scotland) was the port with the highest UK fleet landings – 154,000 tonnes with a value of £169m

- Brixham (England) had the highest value of UK landings outside Scotland – £36m (of mainly high value shellfish).

- Imports of fish 674,000 tonnes (majority from EU). Exports 448,000 tonnes (majority to EU).

_110807919_brexit_fishing_map3-nc (1).png

_110838666_uk_fishing_map_640-nc.png

a36b5cd8-97ce-4ba1-b29b-47847bf5dc35 (1).png

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Now it's getting weird. Peter Bone is a Tory MP and Brexiteer, not a late convert but campaigned for it. 

As Bercow used to call him.. Peter Booone tears Boris a new arse hole over taking cover and avoiding Parliament.

There’s a heap of shit being buried whilst everyone is distracted by Covid!

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20 minutes ago, mad said:

There’s a heap of shit being buried whilst everyone is distracted by Covid!

Interestingly not just back benchers but Cabinet members are apparently really pissed at Johnson that he only told them of the detail after finalised and without any consultation. He has to front the Backbench 1922 Committee on Friday. Video link I presume so wow he will be scared.

Then there was a telephone hookup between Johnson and industry/business leaders. Same thing just gave them a heads-up, no consultation. They are super pissed.

Welcome to the totalitarian state they facilitated and they now complain. Fuck them.

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24 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Interestingly not just back benchers but Cabinet members are apparently really pissed at Johnson that he only told them of the detail after finalised and without any consultation. He has to front the Backbench 1922 Committee on Friday. Video link I presume so wow he will be scared.

Then there was a telephone hookup between Johnson and industry/business leaders. Same thing just gave them a heads-up, no consultation. They are super pissed.

Welcome to the totalitarian state they facilitated and they now complain. Fuck them.

With the Chancellor just announcing how bad the economy is going to get, defending the self induced extra pain of Brexit is getting harder and harder to defend. 

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1 hour ago, LeoV said:

....The letter to MPs asks them to speak up for British food and farming in today’s House of Commons debate.

-------------------

Now it will be interesting to watch the ardent Brexiteer MP's trying to defend this, as it makes a deal with the US much harder.
And so funny if they defend it, as the Eu wants the same in their negotiation, but that is unfair.

Truss stood up in HOC yesterday saying protectionism would be a "disaster for the Global economy at the moment.” Good luck with that pipedream for countries looking to survive and coming from someone with not one FTA. And on standards said this;

She has just released an hour or so ago this pushing it as a Coronavirus remedy for business citing a £15.2bn trade increase, benefitting Scotland, London & East Midlands most (also hit by ConVid the most or Scotland case imposed by the Nike conference spreading Hancock fuckup) and she says; "The agreement will be based on the existing EU-Japan free trade agreement.."

 The UK  has  today (Wednesday 13 May) published  its negotiating objectives for a free trade agreement with Japan, with talks beginning shortly.

These cunts are both unprincipled and fucking mad...no slight to @mad intended.

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