winchfodder

Cagliari First Ever AC75 Regatta Predictions 23-26 April

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New year, new AC race series. 

And what a feast we have to look forward to!

Never one to be boring, the America's Cup has once again turned up the boat design heat. Yes, the towering Kiwi Big Boat of Michael Fay was something else to admire with some great NZ engineering and ingenuity, but not surprisingly beaten easily by a catamaran. Then the monster Oracle wingsail trimaran smoked the softsail cat. Next it was the foiling catamarans with wingsails. 

Yet all this; giant monohulls, catamarans, wingsails, foils, even cyclors were not new to sailing. Somehow, in the design furnace of the America's Cup, fuelled by the dollars and egos of the mega rich, we have ended up with probably the most outrageous boat package ever to hit the water.

The AC75 foiling monohulls I think we can all agree are crazy mad. Despite the naysayers (plenty here) they have actually managed to (almost) stay upright and have even tacked and gybed on foils (dry sailing we call it).

GD has created an unexpected new AC design rule with prodding from Prada. He has also given us four very different options to critique. 

When they meet in Cagliari in April we can expect a megafest of crashing, burning and recriminations. 

So far we have not even seen one AC75 complete all the elements of a race. Thankfully the stopwatch reaching starts are to be replaced by proper windward legs (I hope). As for prestart maneuvering there is plenty to learn and plenty to go wrong.  

So how are the predictions going from what we have and have not seen so far?

The NYYC scow has had the most time on the water and some astute observers like Sailing Illustrated have given them top billing.

The Kiwis are clearly going well, capsize and all, and as principal formulators of the rule have had the most time to study the concept. 

Everyone seems to like the stylish Prada package, and again they have had longer access to the design concept and have also gone the NZ bustle route.

As for the Brits we keep hearing woe and drama, from mast problems to personnel. Money does not seem a problem for BA, but despite an early launch sailing has been surprisingly limited. The boat looks mean and fast in a straight line. Can the Olympian pull it all back together?

Some, maybe all, of these questions will be answered in April. Can't wait!

 

FIRST EVER AC75 REGATTA

Taking place in the ancient port of Cagliari on the sun-drenched Italian Mediterranean island of Sardegna (Sardinia) from April 23 – 26, 2020 the opening event of the three-regatta ACWS circuit sees the teams competing in the 36th America’s Cup presented by Prada racing their first generation AC75 high-performance foiling monohulls against each other for the very first time.

 

 

 

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Nobody knows but these boats can behave like beasts.

This is INEOS team UK sailing in the same conditions,

My bets are on INEOS Team Uk. Looks smooth, While LR is bumpy and splashing.

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Prediction:

1st Prada

2nd ETNZ

3rd USA

4th BAR

2nd and 3rd may be swapped around

and yes I believe ETNZ won't be pushing, they have nothing to prove and everything to hide

 
 
 
 
12 minutes ago, winchfodder said:

So far we have not even seen one AC75 complete all the elements of a race.

upwind & downwind ... what else is there?

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I predict a spectacle, interesting race rules and loads of sand bags?

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1st ETNZ

2nd Luna Rossa

3rd USA

4th INEOS

ETNZ and Prada will be competitive. The other will just make up the numbers at this stage of their development...

Maine sandbagging for sure . But everyone has something to prove to sponsors and potential sponsorship money going forwards 

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and yes I believe ETNZ won't be pushing, they have nothing to prove and everything to hide.

Yes, I agree with that. Though they might show a bit more performance in Portsmouth to keep their sponsor happy!

 

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I have no fucking idea at all, which of these boats will be quickest in a straight line. But as usual, VMG will be the KPI.

Exciting stuff.

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Well, to win a race you have to finish it, we have a race in 3 months and no team presented us a boat completing a race course yet.

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Prediction: Stars and Stripes... DNC.

 

nothing like stating the obvious, but until they withdraw or are otherwise eliminated from being a competitor, they should be included in this discussion, so I predict them to be DFL. I so hope I am wrong.

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39 minutes ago, Tornado-Cat said:

Well, to win a race you have to finish it, we have a race in 3 months and no team presented us a boat completing a race course yet.

Ah no...ETNZ has been doing full race courses for a while... So I guess at least one team will...

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1 minute ago, uflux said:

Ah no...ETNZ has been doing full race courses for a while... So I guess at least one team will...

The thing you may not realise with TC's trolling is that he relies on argumentum ad ignorantiam where, he will claim because he hasn't seen itself, it cannot be proven to him, and therefore must be empirically false...

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27 minutes ago, rh3000 said:

The thing you may not realise with TC's trolling is that he relies on argumentum ad ignorantiam where, he will claim because he hasn't seen itself, it cannot be proven to him, and therefore must be empirically false...

Yes well I guess if he is willIng to ignore what ENTZ themselves have said about practice course racing it makes total sense...:mellow:

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56 minutes ago, rh3000 said:

The thing you may not realise with TC's trolling is that he relies on argumentum ad ignorantiam where, he will claim because he hasn't seen itself, it cannot be proven to him, and therefore must be empirically false...

I did not claim, I said "no team presented us a boat completing a race course yet."  Any vid ? I would be interested and I am sure I am not the only one, but your are more interested in trolling.

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28 minutes ago, uflux said:

Yes well I guess if he is willIng to ignore what ENTZ themselves have said about practice course racing it makes total sense...:mellow:

Any evidence ? just asking.

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14 minutes ago, Tornado-Cat said:

Any evidence ? just asking.

Sigh...if I must :mellow:.....from 0:35 sec. the day ETNZ tipped over they were sailing courses...which they carried on doing the rest of the afternoon. So yeah they are training courses...all the teams will be

 

 

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I am not an eternal pessimist like T_R , so I predict that Burling will luff Ainslie at the very first pre-start. Ainslie's super cavitating foils stall and with all alarms going off just touches lightly, got to do a 360, but instead swims over to the TNZ support boat and knocks out his old mate Grumpie Dorker. 

As for the Loony Rossa and American Muppets, they get properly tangled up at the first mark rounding, continue in embrace towards Sicilia at 50 knots, and eventually have to a crocodile ugly before sailing back to base in Hugo Boss mode.

Then in a total surprise, Stars & Stripes turns up with good old DC at the helm. They sail the course in Archimedes mode, just finishing before he runs out of Whiskey, and are declared overall winners. At the press conference he calls Burling a Dick-son and announces that he will also take over the US FailGP team, sponsored by Kentucky Fried Bourbon.

You see, I'm an eternal optimist.

 

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13 minutes ago, uflux said:

Sigh...if I must :mellow:.....from 0:35 sec. the day ETNZ tipped over they were sailing courses...which they carried on doing the rest of the afternoon. So yeah they are training courses...all the teams will be

 

 

Thanks, we saw how it ended up in the beginning though but yes, all team will do it at one point. Not sure they all finish it.

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2 hours ago, Tornado-Cat said:

Well, to win a race you have to finish it, we have a race in 3 months and no team presented us a boat completing a race course yet.

No team has presented you a completion of a race course yet. That doesn't mean it hasn't been done. 

Verification as to how high you're on their relevance list I'd suspect...

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About 3 months out. Does anyone know if we will be able to stream it or if the full race videos will be available after?

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^^^Excellent point!!^^^

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6 hours ago, Tornado-Cat said:

Thanks, we saw how it ended up in the beginning though but yes, all team will do it at one point. Not sure they all finish it.

Team NZ have already said they're sailing the courses now. Im sure they finish it at least once

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2 hours ago, nroose said:

About 3 months out. Does anyone know if we will be able to stream it or if the full race videos will be available after?

Grumpie Dorker has been talking up free-to-view for the AC in NZ so hopefully Prada and Emarates will subsidise the TV for the two warm up series in Italy and the UK

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2 hours ago, nroose said:

About 3 months out. Does anyone know if we will be able to stream it or if the full race videos will be available after?

BT sport normally carries ac if GB is playing

and they are

its usually not to difficult to find a stream for them

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3 hours ago, nroose said:

About 3 months out. Does anyone know if we will be able to stream it or if the full race videos will be available after?

I'll put in an order for both pleas...YouTube works for me.

Thx noose

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Anyone found a good live webcam for Cagliari. Might be useful to check the weather and movements

 

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I'm going to be there!

I'll send pictures

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15 hours ago, winchfodder said:

The NYYC scow has had the most time on the water and some astute observers like Sailing Illustrated have given them top billing.

This goes against everything I've heard coming out of the Magic camp - last I heard the Orca had close to fuck all sailing time after it's early outings... has it gotten wet yet since landing in Pensacola? If that statement is true then they've done a mighty fine job of keeping it under the radar - I could expect that in P'cola but not from when they were up in RI.

I'd say ETNZ for the win followed by Prada with Magic and INEOS battling it out for 3rd. Stars and Stripes will somehow not have officially withdrawn and Canfield will be mincing around the VIP area giving excruciating non-committal interviews to anyone with a microphone....

Hopefully the production team will have sorted their shit out and hired some decent commentators - maybe Slingers and Cat Flap for on the water coverage? 

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22 minutes ago, NZK said:

This goes against everything I've heard coming out of the Magic camp - last I heard the Orca had close to fuck all sailing time after it's early outings... has it gotten wet yet since landing in Pensacola? If that statement is true then they've done a mighty fine job of keeping it under the radar - I could expect that in P'cola but not from when they were up in RI.

I'd say ETNZ for the win followed by Prada with Magic and INEOS battling it out for 3rd. Stars and Stripes will somehow not have officially withdrawn and Canfield will be mincing around the VIP area giving excruciating non-committal interviews to anyone with a microphone....

Hopefully the production team will have sorted their shit out and hired some decent commentators - maybe Slingers and Cat Flap for on the water coverage? 

I think you are right. There was minimal sailing information coming out of Newport. Not sure why Ehman is talking it up on Sailing Illustrated. 

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47 minutes ago, chuso007 said:

I'm going to be there!

I'll send pictures

Meet you there? 

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I have no idea the order of finish but I think the first race series will be a feeling out for all the teams.  Huge sailboats with two foil arms swinging about instead of a keel.  These boats have a lot to prove in regards to match racing.

WetHog  :ph34r:

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Is there confirmation yet on the proposed AC or Prada Cup courses. Also length of races.

I presume the two WS events will be a mixture of fleet racing with some sort of match racing finals?

 

 

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20 hours ago, winchfodder said:

The NYYC scow has had the most time on the water and some astute observers like Sailing Illustrated have given them top billing.

An American backing an American team in the absence of any facts?!

Unheard of.

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I predict ETNZ will do well but not spectacularly. Why ever would they want to show their hand even with boat 1?  

 

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36 minutes ago, Ex-yachtie said:

An American backing an American team in the absence of any facts?!

Unheard of.

Same could be said for you and your fellow Kiwi's.  Not a lot of facts until the first races are over.

WetHog   :ph34r:

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3 minutes ago, WetHog said:

Same could be said for you and your fellow Kiwi's.  Not a lot of facts until the first races are over.

WetHog   :ph34r:

 Not sure if I’ve said ETNZ are the favourites, but if you say so. Nor have I set up a YouTube channel to tell everyone what I think.  
 

Besides all that, despite recent trends in US politics, just because TE says so, it doesn’t make it fact.

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I have no idea, but I'm gonna say, (with the results having little if any bearing on how the Cup goes)

INEOS

ETNZ

LR

NYYC

 

I do worry about collisions occurring during racing

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2 hours ago, Ex-yachtie said:

 Not sure if I’ve said ETNZ are the favourites, but if you say so. Nor have I set up a YouTube channel to tell everyone what I think.  
 

Besides all that, despite recent trends in US politics, just because TE says so, it doesn’t make it fact.

There are a lot of Kiwi's on here backing ETNZ without a lot of facts to back up their support.  Not sure which Kiwi's have youtube channels though.

And its great you pay attention to US politics.  Best soap opera on the planet. :lol:

WetHog  :ph34r:

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9 minutes ago, WetHog said:

US politics.  Best soap opera on the planet

dam

i thought it was a sit com

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I predict it doesn't matter who comes first. Just who comes last.

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1 hour ago, WetHog said:

There are a lot of Kiwi's on here backing ETNZ without a lot of facts to back up their support.  Not sure which Kiwi's have youtube channels though.

Supporting/backing a team is different to declaring them as favourites to win...

I think you'll see plenty of Kiwis doing the former (as we would expect with supporters of other teams), but not too many claiming certain victory yet...

Perhaps its the word 'backing' that has proved confusing?

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The biggest determining factor could well be the weather.

There is no way these four different foil shapes and hull shapes are going to perform exactly the same across all wind and wave ranges.  There will definitely be days that siginificantly favour one setup over another, the politics alone tell you that Luna Rossa think they have the goods at the lower end of the range.

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2 hours ago, WetHog said:

There are a lot of Kiwi's on here backing ETNZ without a lot of facts to back up their support.  Not sure which Kiwi's have youtube channels though.

And its great you pay attention to US politics.  Best soap opera on the planet. :lol:

WetHog  :ph34r:

There’s a difference between backing and expressing knowledge. 
 

Trump would be entertaining if he didn’t have the ability to drag the 6 billion people who didn’t vote for him into World War 3 and the destruction of our planet. 

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1 minute ago, Tornado-Cat said:

The first two legs will be the most interesting.

Actually I'm  most interested in what will happen in the start box! The potential for interesting events is pretty high here!

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7 minutes ago, Boybland said:

Actually I'm  most interested in what will happen in the start box! The potential for interesting events is pretty high here!

I was going to write that, but they will probably keep their boat as safe as possible during the first leg while trying to compare their speed during the first leg. However we know that the first to mark 1 is often not the at mark 2.

However you are right to say that with agressive Spitbull and her majesty Sir Ben we may have a boat capsize or hit before the gun.

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54 minutes ago, Tornado-Cat said:

I was going to write that, but they will probably keep their boat as safe as possible during the first leg while trying to compare their speed during the first leg. However we know that the first to mark 1 is often not the at mark 2.

However you are right to say that with agressive Spitbull and her majesty Sir Ben we may have a boat capsize or hit before the gun.

In fact just for the excitement factor they should put Ben and Jimmy up first!

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Pistol Pete will own the box.

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5 hours ago, Boybland said:

In fact just for the amusement factor they should put Ben and Jimmy up first!

Jimmy OTS Out Of Bounds Hooked Looser crikey what were the Handbags thinking signing him up.

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8 hours ago, Tornado-Cat said:

The first two legs will be the most interesting.

Have the courses for the ACWS been declared. Are we back to windward leeward or the catamaran reaching starts and finishes.

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32 minutes ago, winchfodder said:

Have the courses for the ACWS been declared. Are we back to windward leeward or the catamaran reaching starts and finishes.

The promo for Cag showed an up down course with a reach at the end.

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13 hours ago, Ex-yachtie said:

There’s a difference between backing and expressing knowledge. 
 

Trump would be entertaining if he didn’t have the ability to drag the 6 billion people who didn’t vote for him into World War 3 and the destruction of our planet. 

There is at least one Kiwi on here expressing knowledge.

In regards to the bold part, talk about commenting without all the facts.  Hardly a Trump fan but I will admit his trolling powers can be amusing in their global reach.  

WetHog  :ph34r:

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52 minutes ago, WetHog said:

Hardly a Trump fan but I will admit his trolling powers can be amusing in their global reach.  

Take it to PA, WetCunt !

 

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1 hour ago, Fiji Bitter said:

Take it to PA, WetCunt !

 

I didn't start it, douche.  Have a nice day.

WetHog  :ph34r:

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4 hours ago, WetHog said:

Hardly a Trump fan but I will admit his trolling powers can be amusing in their global reach.  

Trolling, and the assassination of a senior defense minister of a nuclear capable sovereign state hardly have the same definition. 

It's about time the majority of the electoral college pulled their heads out of their asses and did something about him, or perhaps just a lone gunman.

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2 hours ago, Ex-yachtie said:

Trolling, and the assassination of a senior defense minister of a nuclear capable sovereign state hardly have the same definition. 

It's about time the majority of the electoral college pulled their heads out of their asses and did something about him, or perhaps just a lone gunman.

Not going to comment on the first bit because this isn't PA but I will say your understanding of what the electoral college is and how it works is absurdly wrong.  I have no idea how the government works in NZ so I don't comment on it.  I'd suggest you do the same in regards to the US.

WetHog  :ph34r:  

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21 minutes ago, WetHog said:

Not going to comment on the first bit because this isn't PA but I will say your understanding of what the electoral college is and how it works is absurdly wrong.  I have no idea how the government works in NZ so I don't comment on it.  I'd suggest you do the same in regards to the US.

WetHog  :ph34r:  

I believe @Ex-yachtie is making a timely reference to the Supreme Court announcing it will finally hear two cases regarding the electoral college's ability to ignore state election results and instead vote in a different president. Maybe you hadn't heard? :-)

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1 hour ago, WetHog said:

Not going to comment on the first bit because this isn't PA but I will say your understanding of what the electoral college is and how it works is absurdly wrong.  I have no idea how the government works in NZ so I don't comment on it.  I'd suggest you do the same in regards to the US.

WetHog  :ph34r:  

I used the term “electoral college” in the place of “Americans”, recognising the fact that in the country that kills people in the name of democracy not all votes are equal in terms of electing the figurehead of the nation or representation within the government.
 

I didn’t want to insult the more progressive majority of Americans (of whom I suspect most SA contributors belong) by judging them by their leader.

But then this isn’t PA, so I’ll leave it there. 

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40 minutes ago, rh3000 said:

I believe @Ex-yachtie is making a timely reference to the Supreme Court announcing it will finally hear two cases regarding the electoral college's ability to ignore state election results and instead vote in a different president. Maybe you hadn't heard? :-)

Nah he has made up his own explanation.  :lol:

WetHog  :ph34r:

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2 minutes ago, Ex-yachtie said:

I didn’t want to insult the more progressive majority of Americans (of whom I suspect most SA contributors belong) by judging them by their leader.

You already insulted them by including them in your absurd attempt at making whatever point you are trying to make.  

And here is a link for you to learn about the electoral college so next time you try to invoke it you know what the fuck you are talking about.

http://socialstudiesforkids.com/articles/government/theelectoralcollege.htm

WetHog  :ph34r:

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1 hour ago, winchfodder said:

Looks like light weather in April. Could be why Prada are chasing a 20kt limit.

 

Screenshot_20200124-112207_Chrome.jpg

Doesn't matter at all.

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So 8.9 - 9.9knots.

ACWS wind limits by MC?

Same for all venues?

What about the Christmas Cup?

LR to set conditions for PRADA Cup/Challenger elimination right?

Match by MC/Arbitration right.

Why should generally light conditions at Cagliari determine LR's preference for Auckland a year later, especially as it's been blowy there lately and LR has shown definitively that they can handle 20+?

Edited by nav

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Is there anything on the actual regatta format and race schedule? Fleet racing? Round robins? Maybe the NoR is public somewhere?

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14 minutes ago, nav said:

So 8.9 - 9.9knots.

ACWS wind limits by MC?

Same for all venues?

What about the Christmas Cup?

LR to set conditions for PRADA Cup/Challenger elimination right?

Match by MC/Arbitration right.

Why should generally light conditions at Cagliari determine LR's preference for Auckland a year later, especially as it's been blowy there lately and LR has shown definitively that they can handle 20+?

Conditions get lighter month by month from now in Cagliari so LR will be tuned up and experienced for light winds. That is why they would prefer a wind limit of 20kt when they finally get to NZ. Yes they have sailed in 20+ but the way the boat was porposing (even compared with INEOS) they did not look comfortable. 

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5 minutes ago, Xlot said:

https://farevela.net/2020/01/24/tre-mesi-alle-americas-cup-world-series-di-cagliari-23-26-aprile-il-video-promo/

Preliminary info on race course, village, tv/streaming out. I don’t remember how high the coast is by the start line, and if it’ll make for a good view point

 

Great that we are back to unwind starts and hopefully finishes. 

 

 

unnamed.png

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That finish is downwind. And not perpendicular to the wind. So the right side of the finish line is favored. Probably the races won't be close, so that doesn't particularly matter, but why?

 

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2 hours ago, winchfodder said:

Conditions get lighter month by month from now in Cagliari so LR will be tuned up and experienced for light winds. That is why they would prefer a wind limit of 20kt when they finally get to NZ. Yes they have sailed in 20+ but the way the boat was porposing (even compared with INEOS) they did not look comfortable. 

Won't their boat1 be 'on the road' a lot after the first event? How much more training will they get at their base after that IYO?

Given the sea state and how twitchy these boats are in general I thought they looked very much in control in those 'offshore conditions'.

Not buying it.

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On 1/24/2020 at 3:40 PM, winchfodder said:

Great that we are back to unwind starts and hopefully finishes. 

 

 

unnamed.png

BTW, the actual course orientation is NW-SE

For those attending, the coastal road may indeed be a good location (with binoculars). But steer clear of the Lo Scoglio restaurant abeam of the start line: it does have a very nice terrace, but it’s scandalously overpriced

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On 1/24/2020 at 4:12 PM, nroose said:

That finish is downwind. And not perpendicular to the wind. So the right side of the finish line is favored. Probably the races won't be close, so that doesn't particularly matter, but why?

 

Have you seen the breakwaters that are blocking the way to the finish?

Hard to say that the right side is favored. 

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Wtf is up with the break water on the course!!!

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29 minutes ago, Priscilla said:

Will be very spectator friendly.

E0130A5A-564D-49F3-AF24-B5029F814D80.thumb.jpeg.3e00e7afd83c6284bf1b00a58ad38b36.jpeg

 

That's a pretty ridiculous way to finish a race!

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Just now, Priscilla said:

Will be very spectator friendly.

If true that would be a spectacular obstacle course. Surely hope it is true.

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Not sure the harbormaster is keen on having his precious breakwaters demolished by the schythes of doom ...

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Too late............INEOS is already there

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On 1/25/2020 at 3:33 AM, Xlot said:

https://farevela.net/2020/01/24/tre-mesi-alle-americas-cup-world-series-di-cagliari-23-26-aprile-il-video-promo/

Preliminary info on race course, village, tv/streaming out. I don’t remember how high the coast is by the start line, and if it’ll make for a good view point

 

The sea wall doesn't appear to be far above the water - maybe 10 -20 feet or so if I were guessing, This slope seems to provide some elevation but is course side of the start line a little ways.  But given Google can drive it, I assume it's public access and a decent lens or set of glasses should give some good perspective of the pre-start.

Comparing various satellite maps, seems there's a compound in front of some housing that limits the open viewing directly opposite the start line to the sea wall.  Or on-water, of course. Or sitting at home (or on your cellphone) watching on TV with virtual graphics overlays. 

 

621861412_CagliariStart.thumb.jpg.1a957321b3d23a4161420a099971c1ee.jpg

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1 hour ago, Priscilla said:

Will be very spectator friendly.

E0130A5A-564D-49F3-AF24-B5029F814D80.thumb.jpeg.3e00e7afd83c6284bf1b00a58ad38b36.jpeg

 

Obviously Prickscilla's 10 year old son is playing games. Next he will be in hospital with a severe head injury.

Now go and castigate the prick.  ;)

 

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5 hours ago, Wolkenzug said:

Have you seen the breakwaters that are blocking the way to the finish?

Hard to say that the right side is favored. 

I guess it depends on the layline. Will the boats be able to fetch the finish from the breakwater or have to jibe or soak? If they have to jibe or soak, then the right side is even more favored.

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1 hour ago, nroose said:

I guess it depends on the layline. Will the boats be able to fetch the finish from the breakwater or have to jibe or soak? If they have to jibe or soak, then the right side is even more favored.

Wait a minute: what they’re showing is SE Scirocco (unwanted because of attendant sea state), while the prevailing wind should be NW Maestrale

 

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