winchfodder

Cagliari First Ever AC75 Regatta Predictions 23-26 April

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5 hours ago, trt131 said:

The left are all about redistribution of wealth.  Take money of those who have worked to get it and give it to those who haven't got it.  Its theft.  The right are about aspirational ideas to get people that dont have the money to work harder to better themselves, a distribution of wealth not redistribution.

Can you please direct me to this world? Where people have the same chances to achieve anything, depending on their capabilities alone? Where there's no need to care for the weak, because hard work will fix all ills? Where there's no wealth generating more wealth without work, because  - again - hard work is the means for a good life?

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3 hours ago, Xlot said:

 

 ^/^^ Both of you should read Jonathan Haidt’s The Righteous Mind

Better yet, check out Haidt's and Jordan Peterson's joint cultural wars discussions, on Youtube.

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And whilst they do, lets get back to the predictions. 

Personally I'm torn between LR and AM as to which boat looks like the best package. I like elements of both . ETNZ are (surprisingly) quite a 'safe' design. All of the other 3 have more radical elements in my mind. WIth Ineos I am concerned they just don't have the time on the water. On the other hand with Ben, Goobs and Parko I think they have the kernel of the best crew.

Forex ETNZ have big foils, less freedom to change them, nearly traditional boom, bustle for easy of flying. Nothing too radical there

Whereas the flat bottoms may allow lower flying and thus be faster, albeit a risk on lift-off or touch down

Ineos no boom approach intrigues me. That seems more risky, but  there are aspects I don't understand yet. Hopefully there are clever aspects to it that w cannot see that resolve my worries

AM have a more traditional boom, but look to have  wider leech separation (hence more power but also more drag) and may have more independence of skin control which may give them better control over power vs drag

Then there are all the control systems we cannot see. And can only guess who leads.

 

Will be interesting to see what LR have changed with their time in the shed

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13 minutes ago, winchfodder said:

Oh shit...

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Crikey nooooooooo.

Can’t they do like the Chinese and just tell porkies.

Best they head for Portsmouth quickly otherwise this place is going to become way way worserer.

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It's been widely reported this morning in Melbourne that the Australian F1 GP is under some risk of being cancelled as a F1 World Championship event as the Australian Government considers imposing entry restrictions on those travelling from Northern Italy & Iran given the death rate for the virus in northern Italy exceeds 3%. That potentially puts team members from Alpha Tauri, Ferrari & tyre supplier Pirelli are at risk of not being allowed into the country without isolating themselves for 14 days - Impossible when the race is 10 days away. 

A decision is reportedly being made later today on whether the F1 show will count as part of the World Championship (with all teams present) or continue as a glorified testing weekend for those permitted to turn up...

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11 hours ago, trt131 said:

The left are all about redistribution of wealth.  Take money of those who have worked to get it and give it to those who haven't got it.  Its theft.  The right are about aspirational ideas to get people that dont have the money to work harder to better themselves, a distribution of wealth not redistribution.

Not to further the thread drift, but...  

You assume that just because someone has something that they justifiably earned it.  The "left" isn't for redistribution as such, just for a more fair cut of the pie for their efforts.  Here in the US we have CEO's being paid hundreds of millions of dollars a year while the workers that make the business run do not make enough money to put food on the table.  That is not greed from the "lazy", it is the powerful taking more than their share of the value chain because they have the power to do so.  Nobody is against the ability to make more money from your efforts, just the fact that many are not making enough money for their efforts.

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Enough of the drift, take it somewhere else or I'll report the lot of you for spamming.

At least that other fella spammed sail, you's all just wasted half a page moaning. Fuck

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5 hours ago, The_Alchemist said:

Not to further the thread drift, but...  

You assume that just because someone has something that they justifiably earned it.  The "left" isn't for redistribution as such, just for a more fair cut of the pie for their efforts.  Here in the US we have CEO's being paid hundreds of millions of dollars a year while the workers that make the business run do not make enough money to put food on the table.  That is not greed from the "lazy", it is the powerful taking more than their share of the value chain because they have the power to do so.  Nobody is against the ability to make more money from your efforts, just the fact that many are not making enough money for their efforts.

Behind every great fortune lies a great crime.

Honore de Balzac

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22 minutes ago, Tornado-Cat said:

A good democracy brings equality of chance, the left kills success to "redistribute".

Trickle-down economics has never worked, because it doesn't  take into account humanities capacity for greed, at the expense of others.

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28 minutes ago, Tornado-Cat said:

A good democracy is built on equality.

FIFY

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1 minute ago, uflux said:

Trickle-down economics has never worked, because it doesn't  take into account humanities capacity for greed, at the expense of others.

Never perfect, thus always perfectible, but however imperfect you live better in the US than in North Korea.

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20 minutes ago, Tornado-Cat said:

A good democracy brings equality of chance, the left kills success to "redistribute".

What freaky neo liberal think tank did that slogan come from???

Access to decent healthcare and education are extremely beneficial to your equality of chance, both things are close to impossible to provide to everyone without redistribution.

 

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1 minute ago, Tornado-Cat said:

Never perfect, thus always perfectible, but however imperfect you live better in the US than in North Korea.

Because North Korea is so very representative of every democracy that is not the US????

Surely you can do better than that...

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5 hours ago, barfy said:

Enough of the drift, take it somewhere else or I'll report the lot of you for spamming.

At least that other fella spammed sail, you's all just wasted half a page moaning. Fuck

I agree Barfy.  I am out of the political discussion here, lets get back to bagging all the boats, sailors and sponsors.

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Just now, Boybland said:

Surely you can do better than that...

Don't hold your breath.

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7 minutes ago, Tornado-Cat said:

Never perfect, thus always perfectible, but however imperfect you live better in the US than in North Korea.

Left of centre politics does not equate to north Korea in the same way that right of centre politics does not equate to nazi Germany. Keep some perspective. 

Scandinavian countries historically have left-leaning governments an have the highest standards of living in the world. But of course I'm sure you know that. In the same way that the USA is not a constitutional democracy...its a republic. 

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1 hour ago, Boybland said:

Surely you can do better than that...

Are you new here?

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On 3/2/2020 at 2:32 PM, NZL3481 said:

Didn't 51% of Americans vote this clown in?

If you could trade stupid like stocks & shares, America's national debt could be wiped out by month's end...

About 63 million voted for Trump. About 66 million voted for HRC. There are 370 million Americans.

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1 hour ago, uflux said:

Scandinavian countries historically have left-leaning governments

They also know how to tax their high earners.

No need to worry about TC, he's busy doing upgrades to his cat -

0F9D73F2-2846-47E8-BBDB-6CE3208A3537.jpeg

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12 minutes ago, Horn Rock said:

 

They also know how to tax their high earners.

No need to worry about TC, he's busy doing upgrades to his cat -

 

Is that a really iffy backwater canal? Or a roadside ditch?

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4 minutes ago, Skipstone said:

Is that a really iffy backwater canal? Or a roadside ditch?

Good question.

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14 minutes ago, Horn Rock said:

 

They also know how to tax their high earners.

No need to worry about TC, he's busy doing upgrades to his cat -

0F9D73F2-2846-47E8-BBDB-6CE3208A3537.jpeg

:D

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So what's the impact going to be on b2 if cagliari doesnt go ahead? Not sure of the timelines, but they must be getting tight. 

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31 minutes ago, nroose said:

About 63 million voted for Trump. About 66 million voted for HRC. There are 370 million Americans.

A decent turnout will see the Orange idiot out on his arse. The big difference between the last election and the forth coming one is that the Orange dude is very much a known quantity now - and not in a good way. Many who weren't sure what he'd be like and thought they'd give him a go for the hell of it, won't make that mistake again.

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2 minutes ago, Horn Rock said:

A decent turnout will see the Orange idiot out on his arse. The big difference between the last election and the forth coming one is that the Orange dude is very much a known quantity now - and not in a good way. Many who weren't sure what he'd be like and thought they'd give him a go for the hell of it, won't make that mistake again.

I'm really not sure that's true, much as I think much of the rest of the developed world (and all of the un(der)developed world) would wish it were so.

In the last election I suspect Bernie Sanders would have cleaned Trump out - not that Trump shouldn't already have tipped himself out many times before even arriving at election day with misstep after misstep, any one of which would have killed any other candidacy dead - and did, time after time in the annals of US politics.

For whatever reason Trump's able to double down on his faux pas' and his base grows. Where others would be running from their mistakes of position, errors of judgment and just plain demonstrations of periodic idiocy, Trump continues to work on the basis that the world according to Trump is the only world there is, and enough of his compatriots support him that the next race is likely only to be a very tight affair if the Democratic  Party candidate runs a good race, and a comfortable win to Trump if not. 

It's beyond reason to me and I'm sure many, but it is seemingly the way of things in American politics just now.

This time round I'm not at all sure Sanders would defeat Trump.  Of the Democratic party candidates it's only Biden that Trump seems to fear, and Super Tuesday's results seemingly give him some reason to.  Whether that contest will hurt him come election day, well, now there is the question.

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12 minutes ago, Skipstone said:

I'm really not sure that's true, much as I think much of the rest of the developed world (and all of the un(der)developed world) would wish it were so.

In the last election I suspect Bernie Sanders would have cleaned Trump out - not that Trump shouldn't already have tipped himself out many times before even arriving at election day with misstep after misstep, any one of which would have killed any other candidacy dead - and did, time after time in the annals of US politics.

For whatever reason Trump's able to double down on his faux pas' and his base grows. Where others would be running from their mistakes of position, errors of judgment and just plain demonstrations of periodic idiocy, Trump continues to work on the basis that the world according to Trump is the only world there is, and enough of his compatriots support him that the next race is likely only to be a very tight affair if the Democratic  Party candidate runs a good race, and a comfortable win to Trump if not. 

It's beyond reason to me and I'm sure many, but it is seemingly the way of things in American politics just now.

This time round I'm not at all sure Sanders would defeat Trump.  Of the Democratic party candidates it's only Biden that Trump seems to fear, and Super Tuesday's results seemingly give him some reason to.  Whether that contest will hurt him come election day, well, now there is the question.

Oh no. What about Hunter.....

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10 minutes ago, Skipstone said:

his base grows

I'm not convinced of this. I think its softened if anything. Still a solid 30% but not enough to get him up.  The extreme loathing of him will drive turnout, and big turnouts almost always favour the Dems.

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Agree, the Dump Trump sentiment will be strong enough to drive a high turnout.

Remarkable that after three years of nasty, libelous nonsense from Trump, the White House, Barr, the GOP and the pro-Trump media, including the timely megaphone of the Impeachment process, Biden is, if anything, stronger.

Maybe a message there.

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13 minutes ago, Horn Rock said:

I'm not convinced of this. I think its softened if anything. Still a solid 30% but not enough to get him up.  The extreme loathing of him will drive turnout, and big turnouts almost always favour the Dems. 

Well, I understand what has gone before and we live in hope... but he's unlike any politician (anti-politician?) we've ever seen and seems to continue defying what for so long has just seemed common sense... fingers crossed.

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6 minutes ago, weta27 said:

Agree, the Dump Trump sentiment will be strong enough to drive a high turnout.

Remarkable that after three years of nasty, libelous nonsense from Trump, the White House, Barr, the GOP and the pro-Trump media, including the timely megaphone of the Impeachment process, Biden is, if anything, stronger.

Maybe a message there.

Ultimately the impeachment may not have delivered the result the Democrats sought.  But might deliver exactly the outcome the Democrats sought.  It's bought Trump's fear of Biden front and centre... and when even Republicans admit Trump did wrong (just not wrong enough) you gotta think it will help tip people toward Biden (if in the end he's successful in securing the Democratic Party nomination).

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17 minutes ago, barfy said:

Oh no. What about Hunter..... 

I wasn't aware Hunter was running.  :)

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The last US election was decided by fear, this one will be the same.

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Money buys elections in orange country.

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1 minute ago, kenergy said:

The last US election was decided by the Russians, this one will be the same.

 

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8 minutes ago, Priscilla said:

 

That too.

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On 3/4/2020 at 8:22 PM, trt131 said:

She didn't get voted in, Winston got her in.  She needed a coalition of Labor, Greens and NZ First.  The majority voted for National.

National received a plurality, the majority voted against national.

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3 minutes ago, DayTripper said:

A plurality, the majority voted against national.

As they did Labour and in fact every party...

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1 hour ago, weta27 said:

Agree, the Dump Trump sentiment will be strong enough to drive a high turnout.

Remarkable that after three years of nasty, libelous nonsense from Trump, the White House, Barr, the GOP and the pro-Trump media, including the timely megaphone of the Impeachment process, Biden is, if anything, stronger.

Maybe a message there.

Yup. Give him a time out like they did with @wind_apparent

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Sailing anyone?

SO what are the factors that will make the difference. 

If it is light winds then getting onto foils and staying there will make the difference. In terms of design features the obvious first aspect are the foils themselves. ETNZ have the largest foils and so should have an advantage there. They also are not flat-bottomed so should unstick more easily. The other design feature is important is generating enough heeling moment to counteract the RM. If you watch the last AC cycle, or the SailGPs, then they often come off the foils by falling in to windward. That doesn't seem to be as much a feature of the AC75s but is still a factor. This can be avoided by generating more lateral force by over-sheeting, but that obviously is wasteful. The other way is by increased power from the sail (thicker 'wing' shape, more camber) and AM looks best there, followed by ETNZ. SO overall I think ETNZ looks strongest

In medium winds they have enough to stay on the foils. Then it becomes about maximising thrust and pointing. To me the most significant design feature for this are control of the sail shape. As above I think AM is in the best position here. The next most important feature is RM. And here the scows should in theory be the best. So AM looks strongest

In stronger winds there is enough power to reach terminal velocity, so it becomes about maximising that terminal velocity. The design features for this are low drag - foil and aero. Here it seems to me that the Ineos design is more biased in that direction

I appreciate that all of that is a mass simplification, just trying to look at what design features would be biaing towards a particular wind condition to get an idea why each team are making the compromises they are.

LR by the way  doesn't look so biased to any. Not the best or the worst

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16 hours ago, Priscilla said:

Crikey nooooooooo.

Can’t they do like the Chinese and just tell porkies.

Best they head for Portsmouth quickly otherwise this place is going to become way way worserer.

Except two cases reported in Hampshire today ...

Fact is that apart from the North, Center and South Italy have a density of cases comparable to the rest of Europe

Relevantly, the government has decreed that soccer matches (national religion) may take place everywhere, but without public access for at least one month. You may remember that the Italian Sailing Federation already said the same

Is it conceivable that Cagliar takes place this way?

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9 minutes ago, Xlot said:

Except two cases reported in Hampshire today ...

Fact is that apart from the North, Center and South Italy have a density of cases comparable to the rest of Europe

Relevantly, the government has decreed that soccer matches (national religion) may take place everywhere, but without public access for at least one month. You may remember that the Italian Sailing Federation already said the same

Is it conceivable that Cagliar takes place this way?

If needs be then 100%

Majority of audience will be TV/online anyway

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8 hours ago, Skipstone said:

I'm really not sure that's true, much as I think much of the rest of the developed world (and all of the un(der)developed world) would wish it were so.

In the last election I suspect Bernie Sanders would have cleaned Trump out - not that Trump shouldn't already have tipped himself out many times before even arriving at election day with misstep after misstep, any one of which would have killed any other candidacy dead - and did, time after time in the annals of US politics.

For whatever reason Trump's able to double down on his faux pas' and his base grows. Where others would be running from their mistakes of position, errors of judgment and just plain demonstrations of periodic idiocy, Trump continues to work on the basis that the world according to Trump is the only world there is, and enough of his compatriots support him that the next race is likely only to be a very tight affair if the Democratic  Party candidate runs a good race, and a comfortable win to Trump if not. 

It's beyond reason to me and I'm sure many, but it is seemingly the way of things in American politics just now.

This time round I'm not at all sure Sanders would defeat Trump.  Of the Democratic party candidates it's only Biden that Trump seems to fear, and Super Tuesday's results seemingly give him some reason to.  Whether that contest will hurt him come election day, well, now there is the question.

Ever since Reagan, the Republicans have spent the last 40 years vilifying government.  We have stopped teaching Civics in school and a good part of the public just doesn’t understand the real purpose of government in our society.  The republicans have a large portion of the rural population thinking that government is stealing the hard earned money out of their pockets and giving it as handouts to lazy bums that don’t want to work.  No understanding that taxes pay for education, infrastructure, defense, legal system, etc... that allow them to function.  They have also spent decades on gerrymandering many of the congressional districts so that republicans are guaranteed to win the most seats in Congress.  We have some states where votes for democratic congressional candidates is well over 60%, but republicans still win about 70% of the seats!  Sanders falls right into the republican narrative with all of the “free stuff he wants to give away”.  He has no shot of beating the orange clown.   Many of the orange clown voters are not happy with him and Biden can appeal to some of them as being an actual adult that is not talking about “giving free stuff”.  

 Our presidential election is won by electoral college votes (so many per state based upon population), not by the winner of the most votes.  A candidate can win NY and CA by 1 vote or by 20 million votes and still get the same number of electoral college votes.  That makes it critical to win a certain number of states and that greatly reduces the chances of someone like Sanders.

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If they call off Cagliari before NYYC ships Defiant, then that would give them a huge advantage by continuing to sail in Pensacola.

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On 3/4/2020 at 11:11 AM, Brutal said:

Bernie Sanders - Self-professed "Democratic Socialist"

A little bit of democratic socialism might do you some good. 

Just saying.

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2 hours ago, The_Alchemist said:

If they call off Cagliari before NYYC ships Defiant, then that would give them a huge advantage by continuing to sail in Pensacola.

It might give them a bit more sailing time in Pensacola, but I'm not sure thats a huge advantage, its not waters the cup will be held in, and they're on their own. Meanwhile INEOS and Lunna Rossa still share the same water, and are out sailing too, the kiwi's could rig up and go sailing, so as not to loose time developing the boat (definitely not to compare to LR and Sir Ben, definitely not). It also depends on them easily being able to extend all the contracts at Pensacola, and change the shipping schedule to get on a later ship to Portsmouth. 

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1 hour ago, Ex-yachtie said:

A little bit of democratic socialism might do you some good. 

Just saying.

I agree, but that is like calling him a communist to many people in the US.  It has to move gradually, we also are much more socialistic than many want to admit.

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2 minutes ago, JonRowe said:

It might give them a bit more sailing time in Pensacola, but I'm not sure thats a huge advantage, its not waters the cup will be held in, and they're on their own. Meanwhile INEOS and Lunna Rossa still share the same water, and are out sailing too, the kiwi's could rig up and go sailing, so as not to loose time developing the boat (definitely not to compare to LR and Sir Ben, definitely not). It also depends on them easily being able to extend all the contracts at Pensacola, and change the shipping schedule to get on a later ship to Portsmouth. 

It would allow them to continue sailing until into May at their winter home base.  The next race would be in Portsmouth, so the other boats are not sailing in the waters that the races will be held.  I don't think it would take much to rearrange schedules in Pensacola, it is mostly a recreational harbor with very little commercial traffic and the Navy has an Airbase for training navy pilots.  AM have a few tents on a likely used pier and there has to be plenty of time to rearrange a shipment to Portsmouth.

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If we all watch the racing on the telly what’s the risk of infection.

Plenty of SailGP crew would jump at the chance when others fall crook or perish.

This is a war on the water not fucking tiddlywinks.

 

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People think Portsmouth will be a go in a couple of months? That would be nice. Or the virus continues...show me the megayacht$ aren't these supposed to be venue bonanzas?

 

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American Magic skipper Dean Barker has labelled the upcoming America's Cup World Series event in Cagliari a "risky proposition", following the realities of the coronavirus outbreak in Italy.

Barker is hopeful a decision will be made on the future of the event in the next three weeks as syndicates continue their preparations.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=12314362

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It is in Dean’s interest for it not to happen as it gives the Americans more time on the water by not having to relocate to Sardinia. Or am I being too harsh? :rolleyes:

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2 hours ago, The_Alchemist said:

It would allow them to continue sailing until into May at their winter home base.  

But thats not some massive advantage when most of the other teams are out sailing too. Its just the status quo.

Quote

I don't think it would take much to rearrange schedules in Pensacola, it is mostly a recreational harbor with very little commercial traffic and the Navy has an Airbase for training navy pilots.  AM have a few tents on a likely used pier

I was mostly thinking people, not everyone involved will be fly in fly out from NY / going to EU.

Quote

 there has to be plenty of time to rearrange a shipment to Portsmouth.

If they're flying the hull in, possibly, if they're shipping it in, well ships have schedules and you have to hope theres one with space going in the right direction.

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1 hour ago, JonRowe said:

But that's not some massive advantage when most of the other teams are out sailing too. Its just the status quo.

I guess that depends who you compare yourself to...  

AM do stand to gain at best guess 3 or so weeks sailing time relative to others if they're not required to ship Defiant to Cagliari and instead continue sailing in Pensacola. 

Given that time is the attribute no team has enough of or can acquire more of I'm unsure there will be any free pass to American Magic whether or not the public event goes ahead in Cagliari - or in Portsmouth also for that. And while it's not a factor, there's already the reality that AM have more hours on the water than probably anyone and only ETNZ would likely be close to AM's hours sailed which is likely to play on the minds of the CoR and D.

I tend to favour the notion that teams and boats will be required to attend the planned ACWS events whether or not the public event proceeds.  With two boats already in Cagliari and another on the way I'm not sure there'll be quite enough pragmatism in play to allow American Magic simply not to attend an ACWS event - even allowing for conspiracy theories regarding accommodations to prolong the Stars & Stripes 'entry' - and of course assuming immigration into Sardinia remains possible. 

Of course the protocol regardless requires presence at each ACWS - I'm unaware whether it incorporates specific provisions for an event not proceeding or whether any such will instead need to be agreed between D and CoR - making the outcome of those a complete lottery for the others.

Perhaps someone that's studied it more closely than I could indicate how cancellation of an ACWS event would be addressed under the protocol, if indeed it contains any such provisions.

 

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There are 4 cases of the virus in Auckland shall we cancel the cup aswell?

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31 minutes ago, NZL4EVER said:

shall we cancel the cup aswell?

some countries have gone from 4 to 400 in a couple days.  patience, grasshopper.

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1 hour ago, NZL4EVER said:

There are 4 cases of the virus in Auckland shall we cancel the cup aswell?

Most recent case went to a Tool concert Spark Arena last Friday in a contagious condition amongst other conditions.

That's it we are all toast more so if you live out West or the Tron

Upside the Cup will be ours for at least four more years.

 

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ACWS events don’t need to be open to local spectators.  They’d make up a tiny proportion of the viewing public anyway.

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4 hours ago, JonRowe said:

But thats not some massive advantage when most of the other teams are out sailing too. Its just the status quo.

I was mostly thinking people, not everyone involved will be fly in fly out from NY / going to EU.

If they're flying the hull in, possibly, if they're shipping it in, well ships have schedules and you have to hope theres one with space going in the right direction.

I don't think anyone is having trouble finding space on a ship at present...

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8 hours ago, JonRowe said:

It might give them a bit more sailing time in Pensacola, but I'm not sure thats a huge advantage, its not waters the cup will be held in, and they're on their own. Meanwhile INEOS and Lunna Rossa still share the same water, and are out sailing too, the kiwi's could rig up and go sailing, so as not to loose time developing the boat (definitely not to compare to LR and Sir Ben, definitely not). It also depends on them easily being able to extend all the contracts at Pensacola, and change the shipping schedule to get on a later ship to Portsmouth. 

I would think if the other teams permitted AM to stay at home, I'd think there would be some condition stating that they can't sail their AC75 for the time it would have normally been on a ship to & from Cagliari. This was a condition ETNZ won when the ACWS was canned in Auckland in the last cup cycle as part of their 'compensation'.

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With two boats on site plus the imminent arrival of ETNZ there will be some sailing in Sardinia with or without an official world series. AM best to ship to Italy as I guess transport for all the teams from Cagliari to Portsmouth will have been arranged as a group. 

Listening to the Shirley podcast was very revealing. On hull shapes both INEOS and AM designers seemed to be admitting that they had got it wrong. The flat scow hulls were for stability in displacement sailing. They now realise ETNZ and Prada were ahead of them. So I guess their second race boats will have some form of bustle, particularly to create the endplate effect that will give them more power when flying. 

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Saying they are wrong/others  are ahead is a bit harsh, they also pointed very correctly to the wind limit clarification being a shit show. You can only design to what you know.

NZ and the COR  both had months more time on it 

bussle, high sides and LR boom system with medium wings convergence? 

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20 minutes ago, JALhazmat said:

Saying they are wrong/others  are ahead is a bit harsh, they also pointed very correctly to the wind limit clarification being a shit show. You can only design to what you know.

NZ and the COR  both had months more time on it 

bussle, high sides and LR boom system with medium wings convergence? 

Yes. A bit harsh. It will be interesting to see how far they 'converge ' with LR and ETNZ thinking in their race boats. 

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5 hours ago, winchfodder said:

On hull shapes both INEOS and AM designers seemed to be admitting that they had got it wrong.

To be fair, I got the impression from Botin that AM boat 1 was always going to be something simple, just to get a feel for sailing these things - which seems to be precisely what they're doing. I think AM b2 will be a lot more radical and probably a long the lines of LR/ETNZ. 

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Scows Vs skiffs. Well, well, well.... ;-)

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13 hours ago, winchfodder said:

Listening to the Shirley podcast was very revealing. On hull shapes both INEOS and AM designers seemed to be admitting that they had got it wrong. 

You know what, I’m wondering if this isn’t a red herring, wouldn’t be the first one in the AC - isn’t two design teams openly tearing their hairs out before any direct comparison rather suspicious?

Meaning that the theoretical advantage of mainsail hull/water seal is rather obvious, and something that could have been investigated with a fraction of any team’s CFD budget. MOF, I happen to know that this was debated by at least one of the “scow” teams way earlier than the boat launch date.

Guess we’ll really have to wait for b2s ...

 

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As teams may now be working on B2 designs it would be for the least strange that some teams give real indication on where they go.

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14 minutes ago, Xlot said:

You know what, I’m wondering if this isn’t a red herring, wouldn’t be the first one in the AC - isn’t two design teams openly tearing their hairs out before any direct comparison rather suspicious?

Meaning that the theoretical advantage of mainsail hull/water seal is rather obvious, and something that could have been investigated with a fraction of any team’s CFD budget. MOF, I happen to know that this was debated by at least one of the “scow” teams way earlier than the boat launch date.

Guess we’ll really have to wait for b2s ...

 

I can see what you are thinking. However the two conversations with Holroyd and Botin were completely independent (I think Botin was by Skype) and they still both came up with the same two points: LR and ETNZ had a six month design lead on them and the scow design was better in displacement mode which they now realise is no use.

I don't believe that it was a concerted effort to deceive.

I thought Holroyd very convincing. Maybe he is already making excuses and that film of LR sailing through the lee and past INEOS was real. It will be very interesting to see the race boats at the end of the year (and of course the first day of the ACWS). 

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^I can see the price of 2nd-hand yachts going through the roof. ;-)

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On 3/5/2020 at 10:31 PM, Sailbydate said:

American Magic skipper Dean Barker has labelled the upcoming America's Cup World Series event in Cagliari a "risky proposition", following the realities of the coronavirus outbreak in Italy.

Barker is hopeful a decision will be made on the future of the event in the next three weeks as syndicates continue their preparations.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=12314362

Regarding risk: if anyone cares translating this article from Corriere della Sera you may find that all those counted as death *with* coronavirus in Italy were either elderly (average 81) or had several pre-existing severe conditions (average 3.4 conditions). Most were in both categories. 

Basically, the virus has just given them the final push over the cliff, which is still bad admittedly. 

https://www.corriere.it/salute/malattie_infettive/20_marzo_05/chi-sono-morti-positivi-coronavirus-italia-787076ba-5f18-11ea-bf24-0daffe9dc780.shtml

I think Dean Barker has more chances to get happily sliced in two by a foil while in Cagliari.

Still my guess is that the event will not take place.

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Quote not work anymore, but ^^^

Regarding risk: if anyone cares translating this article from Corriere della Sera you may find that all those counted as death *with* coronavirus in Italy were either elderly (average 81) or had several pre-existing severe conditions (average 3.4 conditions). Most were in both categories. 

Dean is old and has a bridesmaid condition, should be worried.

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1 hour ago, Tornado-Cat said:
The Istituto Superiore di Sanità has confirmed that all five cases reported by Sardinia, updated to the morning today, have tested positive and will now also have to check that of the Iglesias woman and the two people infected in Quartu.

 

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It's spreading all over as travelers go home.  

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It would make even 6 now and the first was a 42 years old woman.

As for Italy today, total of 5 883 cases and 233 deaths, which makes close to 4% death rate. So, even if it strikes more the older ones the death rate is very high.

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THe mind refuses to go there, but it’s obvious that one month from now a team member will in have the same chances of testing positive no matter if he stays in Cagliari, Portsmouth or Pensacola - no idea about NZ, and there will be no reason to quarantine travelers

So, I believe the ACWS will go on, but without public

 

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12 minutes ago, Tornado-Cat said:

It would make even 6 now and the first was a 42 years old woman.

As for Italy today, total of 5 883 cases and 233 deaths, which makes close to 4% death rate. So, even if it strikes more the older ones the death rate is very high.

Actually, the death rate is  lower, when you include those with mild symptoms who do not even present. Even Donald Trump understands that, TC.

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9 minutes ago, Sailbydate said:

Actually, the death rate is  lower, when you include those with mild symptoms who do not even present. Even Donald Trump understands that, TC.

That is true, if we take into account the unreported cases some say it turns around 1%, which is what Trump was alluding.

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