BravoBravo

"2019-nCoV"

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Hoping history does not repeat itself with a pandemic 

How long does the virus survive in the environment? Outdoors, the virus can usually only survive for hours or days. Indoors, in dried-up cat litter, it can survive for up to seven weeks....it is not just human to human transfer. I todays world with shipping all sorts of product and materials the virus can spread that way too...hopefully the responses will keep pace

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html?fbclid=IwAR1Xg2-7w3uK8J9fx9G5W0mMu9b52OFdaNbiiABn6MJnFIMe6mvt6DnpYv4

 

https://apnews.com/14d7dcffa205d9022fa9ea593bb2a8c5?fbclid=IwAR2HKCkcOWFCnjg_GIdGr7n57uyiIU4n6b60kZb0kGEfoGr0gPM3gpIb4Pw

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Corona virus  ?

Well I'm not surprised. Whoever thought putting a lime in your beer was a good idea anyway.

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5 minutes ago, Dorado said:

Corona virus  ?

Well I'm not surprised. Whoever thought putting a lime in your beer was a good idea anyway.

Corona was a novelty 1980...gotta put a lime in there was some flavor

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2 minutes ago, BravoBravo said:

Corona was a novelty 1980...gotta put a lime in there was some flavor

And see what happens  . . .

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Probably not a good idea to get your news from The Sun. It is about as tabloidy a source as there is in England and that is not much of a recommendation at all. Just a couple of things in the article that I noticed in a casual read. Wuhan is a city not a province. A thermal scan does not identify that you have this particular illness, just that you have a temperature.

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33 minutes ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

Probably not a good idea to get your news from The Sun. It is about as tabloidy a source as there is in England and that is not much of a recommendation at all. Just a couple of things in the article that I noticed in a casual read. Wuhan is a city not a province. A thermal scan does not identify that you have this particular illness, just that you have a temperature.

All that is true...but I read from all sorts of places...the thermal scanners are just part of the screening...thought the photos most interesting

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3 hours ago, BravoBravo said:

Corona was a novelty 1980...gotta put a lime in there was some flavor

Corona is one of the largest selling imports in the US...  and if you keep drinking that piss that large american brewers pass as lagers , I understand why..  Dos Equis btw is 100x better than corona..

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3 hours ago, BravoBravo said:

Corona was a novelty 1980...gotta put a lime in there was some flavor

I thought the lime was to keep the flies away.  The flavor was a bonus side effect.

 

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10 hours ago, Ed Lada said:

It's here!!!

Let the panic begin.

(By 'here' I mean the US not Poland, just to be clear.)

Better call Sol !

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16 hours ago, Ed Lada said:

It's here!!!

Let the panic begin.

(By 'here' I mean the US not Poland, just to be clear.)

Its in the County just to the South of us and the media is going a little nuts. I was at the dentist, this AM, and walking back to get in the chair when the tech asked how I was feeling "Other than this cough, ever since I got back from China last week" was not the answer she was expecting. Talk about a conversation killer!! Took a minute for normal conversations to resume as I backpedaled it. Touchy group!

 

WL2

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Locking down entire cities is crazy.  I really don't know how this would be accomplished here in the West.  Military?   What a mess.

WWZ with Brad Pitt.

What is scary about this one (or one element of it) is that you can be a carrier of the virus for a week without any knowledge.

I wonder if I can spin this whole thing to buy a larger boat for a 1000 day cheese and sprout cruise?  

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1 hour ago, Windward said:

Locking down entire cities is crazy.  I really don't know how this would be accomplished here in the West.  Military?   What a mess.

WWZ with Brad Pitt.

What is scary about this one (or one element of it) is that you can be a carrier of the virus for a week without any knowledge.

I wonder if I can spin this whole thing to buy a larger boat for a 1000 day cheese and sprout cruise?  

and that the virus can live and be transferred on goods and products...not just folks crossing oceans

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Wash your hands.  This has been a public service announcement.  For bonus points wash your junk.

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3 hours ago, d'ranger said:

Wash your hands.  This has been a public service announcement.  For bonus points wash your junk.

While it is about fluid transfer, I think if your junk is in play, then you have likely acquired the coronavirus if your partner is +

That said, both are good ideas in any event.  

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Well, I know I rant on a bit with my disappointment with American's traveling abroad behaving badly, but the Chinese get a gold star for this lady.   And bragging about it on social media to boot.  Extra credit in the entitled narcissistic and discouraging human traits.

If true, this lady should be sent home asap.

 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51231593

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Eric Toner, a senior scientist with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and the University’s School of Public Health, called the question “nuanced.”

“It’s hard to know why the [Chinese] minister was so sure,” said Toner. “The evidence we have seen is quite suggestive of pre-symptomatic transmission, at least in some people, but not conclusive. He may have information that we do not.”

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Oh deer?

Sint resterday... nCoV glaph take off like locket...

2020-01-27_17-28-07.thumb.jpg.ec74bc0b19ddc5234fa56b49f12e4f74.jpg


No worry foks, yur gubbermint has reassured dis not a velly deadry vilus...

(Rellax ‘merican peeps)

Your deer fweinds from China… suggest it’s a purfect time to make dat call for sum cumfort food fom City Wok!

 

 

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With human-to-human cross infection rates of nCoV now going hockey-stick exponential… and the true carrier rates likely to be in the hundreds of thousands…

Nice to see that flights out of China are STILL at hundreds a day… Business as usual.

One jet enroute as I type f or Melbourne…… hmmnnn?

Untitled-1.thumb.jpg.45dba4df0351389e4329855a5221f89e.jpg

 

Which nation next then, to get runaway infection rates, full blown virus ching chang chonged?

My best guess looking at active flight routes... India...Middle-East, Australia  and USA for sure, within the next 14 days we’ll know the true cost of global mobility.

 

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Chinese social media is going ballistic over this and interestingly the government is not doing much to control it, so they seem to want the population to be scared shitless. One rumour/fact being discussed is that there was a posting by a senior health official in Wuhan who said they would need 100,000 hospital beds. Post disappeared within an hour or never existed or this official does not exist - take your pick. I think SARS scared the Chinese and this is being seen as at least SARS II.

This thing is costing huge amounts of money. The New Year's holiday is being extended in many places, which means factories and offices remain closed, Tourism both into and out of China is almost stopped. As I mentioned in another thread, we were in the process of arranging a trip from Beijing to Lhasa and a tour from there to the Everest Base Camp in May. The two companies I was talking to were not at all surprised that I said we were postponing any decision until we see where this goes. Even in Canada events in the Chinese community are being cancelled ranging from big ticket ones - we were invited to a lavish New Year's event for 1.000 that probably cost the guy paying for it CAN$300 000 to little ticket - an informal dinner for people who went to the same university in Beijing as my wife.

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I don't trust the Chinese media PR image and perception creation...they most certainly are putting a positive spin on the situation

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Just now, BravoBravo said:

I don't trust the Chinese media PR image and perception creation...they most certainly are putting a positive spin on the situation

They aren't in China where it really matters. This is a very, very big deal there and they are doing some completely unprecedented things like trying to isolate 50 million people.

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Daily infection rates - Estimates v Real

EPVpRQKWsAAqbb3.thumb.jpg.13b87daa6026b66051728f5022dd017d.jpg

As I mentioned... in 14 days we’ll know just how ugly or not this gets…

Downtown Wuhan… seems like most folk are now in lock down mode, if it was just a harmless flu bug why so?

The answer is - tis not a flu bug - it’s a nasty novel virus virtually none have immunity too, that and it’s highly infectious.

Coming to a neighbourhood near you… sooner than you may imagine.

Tip of the day…? Go long 3M

 

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1 hour ago, Marinatrix447 said:

Daily infection rates - Estimates v Real

EPVpRQKWsAAqbb3.thumb.jpg.13b87daa6026b66051728f5022dd017d.jpg

As I mentioned... in 14 days we’ll know just how ugly or not this gets…

Downtown Wuhan… seems like most folk are now in lock down mode, if it was just a harmless flu bug why so?

The answer is - tis not a flu bug - it’s a nasty novel virus virtually none have immunity too, that and it’s highly infectious.

Coming to a neighbourhood near you… sooner than you may imagine.

Tip of the day…? Go long 3M

 

Asians in general take sicknesses like this a lot more seriously than we do.  I wouldn't be surprised if a huge portion of that is voluntary.  They don't generally have the rebellious streak that Americans do, and if they are asked to stay indoors by their government many of them will do so.

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other posts , possibly from china, who knows,  showing empty grocery stores,  nothing being shipped in supposedly,  if food supplys run out, it'll be a different ballgame..

there was a possible twitter bot , that posted that 5 million had left the city before the crackdown..  that's half the city,  i doubt that..

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starting to look like some idiot at Umbrella Corp hired some grad school kids cheap to work on weaponizing viruses via bats.

Seems to be more than coincidence in this read.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic

As Dirty Harry says   Swell, just swell...

 

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2 hours ago, Foreverslow said:

starting to look like some idiot at Umbrella Corp hired some grad school kids cheap to work on weaponizing viruses via bats.

Seems to be more than coincidence in this read.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic

As Dirty Harry says   Swell, just swell...

 

zero hedge  lol

Quote

Sources in the Conspiracy-Pseudoscience category may publish unverifiable information that is not always supported by evidence. These sources may be untrustworthy for credible/verifiable information, therefore fact checking and further investigation is recommended on a per article basis when obtaining information from these sources.

 

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Mornin anerpists all…. 29.1.2020 nCoV update

As of yesterday 23:00EST confirmed cases were 6,057, way ahead of the predicted rate.

Untitled-1.thumb.jpg.0c9bf19bf6fee1691ce2de6c7de5c00c.jpg

Some key take-away’s are:

This outbreak is more infectious than a typical flu virus… possibly doubly so. Currently flights out of China continue which guarantees a continued global-spread, commerce trumps all... lest we forget. No one so far can confirm the incubation time, and the compounding problem is spread of nCoV seems to be happening when carriers are non-symptomatic.

Good news the virus has been replicated in Australia, bad news industrial levels of vaccine could still be 6-8 months away. Another big question - as the virus mutates as it spreads - great if it becomes more benign, not so if it gets more aggressive. (Fooled by randomness)

I think this is worth reading, from the mind of Nassim Nicholas Taleb

EPOXOIAX4AIGN8z.thumb.jpg.3e8eab5b4843607ef967867cde9b98b1.jpg


Finally, a snippet of comic relief

 

 

 

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And still, hundreds of flights per day are leaving China and HK? Snapshot live @ 14:00 UTC

Untitled-1.thumb.jpg.0b13ba7917b6f899cd546d0ce151750f.jpg


(Is this tragic or laughable)

It also seems patient ZERO was not linked to the wet food market, and could have been a carrier back in Oct/Nov 2019.

Developing…

 

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true or false ?..who knows I am not worried but stocked up on canned staples yesterday for isolating in place...no guns..hoping the popo patrol street if quarantine comes to pass...figure there will power and water...again I am not worried but do understand history

 

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A medic contact... directed me to this HKU press conference 2 days ago... Flights to/out of China, seriously have to stop.

A troubling side affect of nCoV is renal failure, if you do not get 1st world care pdq on diagnosis.

Patients showing severe symptoms are likely to do so because the host’s immune system has failed to contain viral replication adequately leading to more virus and more shedding. We suspect variations in host immune response to this novel pathogen to be the primary cause not variations in the virus - at least at this stage. Renal failure is showing up in the most severe cases which makes sense due to these cells having many ACE2 receptors. The implication being that failure to get on top of the infection at the respiratory tract infection site leads to increased tissue tropism and access to the target rich kidneys where it is difficult to treat either the infection or the damage caused.

Once most critical care bed spaces are all occupied... one can only imagine how that plays out.

 

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I’ve been laughing this off as the latest media scare until I got the annoying phone call from work letting me know I’d been in multiple meetings with someone who recently left the now quarantined zone. I’m still not all that worried, but it’s a little spooky. 

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Gooday peeps...

Having had some time to dig deeper into the detail of this developing pandemic - talks with my medic contacts – I worked in BIG Pharma for over 15 years
Oh boy is this a fuck-up.

(Today’s key takeaways)

Seems peak infection/victims time-frame is most likely to be April-May 2020120 days from now. On that basis the exponential carrier rates is in the multiple-millions. On the current trajectory we’ll be over the 1st million victim mark end of next week.

154142525_https___s3-us-west-2.amazonaws(19)_2.jpg.aefb77a92cf61d2ed757fb05ea61ff55.jpg

Local Chinese social media for the last 10 days has been littered with thousands of Whuanites bragging of having made it out pre the curfew, albeit being symptomatic so much for the lock-down?

Whuan is the central travel-hub for all of China whether it’s domestic or International.

According to published data sets in the Lancet, the younger Chinese are carriers un-symptomatic for longer, one young boy was infected but showed no overt signs at all, though his other five family members were very symptomatic. How does this bode with the millions of Chinese university students that have already reverted to host EU/USA/Pan Asia campuses in the last few weeks from the mother-land? Don’t forget to add in the wealthier Whuan residents who have gone to other zones, knowingly ill like HK to seek better treatments.

By airport hubs and planes of course.

As of last night 23:00 EST its 7,783k cases ‘officially’ listed, today apparently will hit past 12,167 however the China numbers are fudged – guaranteed.

Untitled-1.jpg.7c72e853fc196a1b9d5b174534b48902.jpg

Why?

Whuan’s healthcare system is overwhelmed. They do not have the scaled lab facilities to process the victim virus testing, the critical-care bed spaces or the numbers of HIV/AIDs anti-viral meds required to stabilize those seriously compromised. While onlookers/families/folks clamour in overrun hospitals, which are the nCov hive epicentres for cross-infection so the loop escalates.

The extra kicker for me is that state sanctioned Chinese troll farms are posting 24/7 on EU/USA/1st world social media feeds that this is a less serious problem than mainstream winter flu – no need for concern.

Martenson makes good sense viewing of where we are at as of 29/1/2020:

Trust me on this one, in five years-time any Chinese that survive this ‘Chenobylesque’ style Bio-hazard outbreak will see just like their Ukrainian SSR counterparts that the communist state-machine has badly let them down. That’s if the kidney and organ damage in the under 10s and over 50s doesn’t do for them, longer-term post recovery.

For the rest of the world it’s now a watch and wait, if 2019-nCov gets an exponential grip in India, Dubai/UEA/RSA/MENA and likely Australia/NZ  over the next month or so...then the global economy is defo fucked.

It’s gonna be one hell of a ride, this next few weeks… strap in and hang on

Antidote du jour?

(This is my final post on this, Trixie out)

 

 

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1 hour ago, Marinatrix447 said:

 

 

Seems peak infection/victims time-frame is most likely to be April-May 2020120 days from now. On that basis the exponential carrier rates is in the multiple-millions. On the current trajectory we’ll be over the 1st million victim mark end of next week.

154142525_https___s3-us-west-2.amazonaws(19)_2.jpg.aefb77a92cf61d2ed757fb05ea61ff55.jpg

 

Accordingy to these guys, the number of cases on the 29th was 7189, so the number in this model is off by 32% in only two days. If you plotted this number of the graph on the log scale you would see the trend as being slightly downward, i.e. the exponentially is not confirmed 

https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0966692317305896-gr3_lrg.jpg

 

1 hour ago, Marinatrix447 said:

 

 

 

Local Chinese social media for the last 10 days has been littered with thousands of Whuanites bragging of having made it out pre the curfew, albeit being symptomatic so much for the lock-down?

Shouldn't that be 'Wuhanninnes'? You might try to spell the name of the city you fear correctly. For the people that got out, they are being treated elsewhere. A husband and wife came home to Toronto and were tested and found positive and are now in isolation in hospital. Apparently they are doing fine. They wore masks on the flight but arrived here the day before screening at the airport started. All the people they were in contact with have been contacted and are being monitored. The professionals learned a lot from SARS and are using that knowledge now.

Whuan is the central travel-hub for all of China whether it’s domestic or International.

How do I spell BS? The maps below are from a 2018 paper that measured 'urban centrality' for Chinese cities for air and high speed rail. If you can find Wuhan, you know where it is of course, you will note that it is in the third category for both air and rail. It took me the best part of three minutes to find the paper. A simple stat, Wuhan airport handles around 200 000 flights a year. Beijing has more than 600 000 at that is not counting the new airport. A total aside, the maps include Taiwan, although without data and little inset maps showing Chinese claims in the South China Sea. I guess the authors had to do that to keep Xi happy.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692317305896

1-s2.0-S0966692317305896-gr3_lrg.jpg

1 hour ago, Marinatrix447 said:

 

According to published data sets in the Lancet, the younger Chinese are carriers un-symptomatic for longer, one young boy was infected but showed no overt signs at all, though his other five family members were very symptomatic.

This is one case. At this point the experts don't know if it is idiosyncratic or not.

How does this bode with the millions of Chinese university students that have already reverted to host EU/USA/Pan Asia campuses in the last few weeks from the mother-land? Don’t forget to add in the wealthier Whuan residents who have gone to other zones, knowingly ill like HK to seek better treatments.

SARS lessons

As of last night 23:00 EST its 7,783k cases ‘officially’ listed, today apparently will hit past 12,167 however the China numbers are fudged – guaranteed.

If they are fudged why are you using them? You might as well make up your own numbers. You have made up a lot of other facts in your post.

Whuan’s healthcare system is overwhelmed. They do not have the scaled lab facilities to process the victim virus testing, the critical-care bed spaces or the numbers of HIV/AIDs anti-viral meds required to stabilize those seriously compromised. While onlookers/families/folks clamour in overrun hospitals, which are the nCov hive epicentres for cross-infection so the loop escalates.

Wuhan, please. I can criticize the Chinese a lot more effectively than you but you have to give them credit for being really good at organizing things on a mass scale very quickly. I don't think that virus testing is only being done locally. Shanghai is not far away and samples could be sent there as need. Not sure what HIV/AIDs medications have to do with it since China's infection rates are not very high. If the medications are needed they will be brought in.

The extra kicker for me is that state sanctioned Chinese troll farms are posting 24/7 on EU/USA/1st world social media feeds that this is a less serious problem than mainstream winter flu – no need for concern.

My wife is Chinese and she spends too much time on WeChat in both Chinese-based and expat groups. Her comment is that there has been a remarkable amount of the kind of hysteria you are spreading here and that the Chinese government censorship does not seem as tight as it normally is. Surely you should be posting about the Wuhan health official who posted that they needed 100,000 beds and then had his post removed a few hours later? Seems like your kind of facts.

Trust me on this one, in five years-time any Chinese that survive this ‘Chenobylesque’ style Bio-hazard outbreak will see just like their Ukrainian SSR counterparts that the communist state-machine has badly let them down. That’s if the kidney and organ damage in the under 10s and over 50s doesn’t do for them, longer-term post recovery.

Perhaps you should do some more research about Chernobyl. If the effects of this outbreak are no worse than Chernobyl then we will be doing fine. You do know that Chernobyl is now a tourist attraction.

For the rest of the world it’s now a watch and wait, if 2019-nCov gets an exponential grip in India, Dubai/UEA/RSA/MENA and likely Australia/NZ  over the next month or so...then the global economy is defo fucked.

Not sure how South Africa got on your list since there are no cases there yet. I looked up UEA, best I could come up with University of East Anglia. Wouldn't want an outbreak there. If you meant UAE, then Dubai is part of the Emirates.

It’s gonna be one hell of a ride, this next few weeks… strap in and hang on

 

Antidote du jour?

 

 

 

(This is my final post on this, Trixie out)

 

 

 

 

 

Not sure if you wrote this or just copied it from somewhere but there is so much just factually wrong information in it. We need to approach this situation carefully, rationally, and using facts and not suppositions like Wuhan is magically the centre of Chinese travel. They bearded guy above is just a bit crazier than a lot of other stuff that is floating around, including much of what you have here. Hysteria gets us nowhere.

Is this a serious situation? Of course, it is. People are dying and thousands are sick. At the same enormously more people are dying of measles and seasonal flu and we don't get our knickers in a knot over those. Measles is far more infectious than this virus with an R0 of between 12 and 18 and we have lots of dummies who do not want to vaccinate their kids. I wonder if these people would vaccinate their kids against corona virus.

A final thought, so much attention is being paid to the fact that we are all going to die (or at least all of the Chinese are) that no one is talking about the enormous impact this will have on the world, and especially the Chinese, economy. It will be very interesting to see how that shakes out in the next few months.

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The above 2 posts are under the assumption the large outbreaks are in the known and projected regions....if say it pops up in Africa...the ME or SW Asia...God  forbid India where governments and infrastructure are "Shit Hole Countries"....well I'll stop there...

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"shit holes" like the US in my opinion won't be able to cope any better than China.  Though this is ooching into PA territory.

 

Just a snapshot look at the ER this past weekend saw the waiting room completely overflowing and huge long waits.  We are woefully unprepared here if that is any example.

 

That said, it is just an observation with a sample of one opinion (mine) so folks with medical experience probably have a better eye.  

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Just now, Windward said:

"shit holes" like the US in my opinion won't be able to cope any better than China.  Though this is ooching into PA territory.

 

Just a snapshot look at the ER this past weekend saw the waiting room completely overflowing and huge long waits.  We are woefully unprepared here if that is any example.

 

That said, it is just an observation with a sample of one opinion (mine) so folks with medical experience probably have a better eye.  

Long waiting lines in US ER's ..?...of course the US would be able to handle it  much much better than China...we have the medical facilitates from local clinics to large hospitals with all sorts of medical professionals that could be diverted and tasked with dealing with the problem....triage and quarantine and localized isolate in place is far superior in the US....   

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@ Bristol-Cruiser

RED TYPE… such a telling colour tu ne crois pas?

RSA = Riyadh Saudi Arabia
UEA was a miss type = United Arab Emirates..

The régional acronym clump I typed… I assumed most folk wouldn’t imagine I was referring to the University of East Anglia.

Chernobyl and Russias exploits in Afghanistan combined is what broke it under Gorbachev’s rule. It collapsed. Only in 30 years from now will know how well China fears or not post this Bio-bomb outbreak.

My condolences to you and your wife’s relatives in China if trapped in one of the affected urban centres.

If your personal income stream is dependent on an active working Chinese connection, then of course this is a highly stressful time for you.

And fret not… I’m no longer seeding NEW info on this topic.

 

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1 hour ago, BravoBravo said:

Long waiting lines in US ER's ..?...

Yes...  when I was there.

Random afternoon last week.  Not a chair to be had.

Anomaly?  possibly.  But I doubt it.

 

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19 minutes ago, Windward said:

Yes...  when I was there.

Random afternoon last week.  Not a chair to be had.

Anomaly?  possibly.  But I doubt it.

 

Yes...but if there was a large scale outbreak I would hope they would not allow non emergency patients into the hospital and screen them in a triage facility near by...IMO the key is quarantine and isolate in place meaning in population centers where outbreaks of the virus  people would be asked, mandated if necessary,  to stay at home. Cutting down on human physical interact and contact is the surest way to halt the spread 

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2 hours ago, Windward said:

 

 

Just a snapshot look at the ER this past weekend saw the waiting room completely overflowing and huge long waits.  We are woefully unprepared here if that is any example.

 

 

just trying to get that free medical care...  in texas they're now bypassing the trip to er and calling the emt's out and then refusing transfer to a medical center..  free health care ..

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3 hours ago, Marinatrix447 said:

@ Bristol-Cruiser

RED TYPE… such a telling colour tu ne crois pas?

RSA = Riyadh Saudi Arabia
UEA was a miss type = United Arab Emirates..

The régional acronym clump I typed… I assumed most folk wouldn’t imagine I was referring to the University of East Anglia.

Chernobyl and Russias exploits in Afghanistan combined is what broke it under Gorbachev’s rule. It collapsed. Only in 30 years from now will know how well China fears or not post this Bio-bomb outbreak.

My condolences to you and your wife’s relatives in China if trapped in one of the affected urban centres.

If your personal income stream is dependent on an active working Chinese connection, then of course this is a highly stressful time for you.

And fret not… I’m no longer seeding NEW info on this topic.

 

Gee, and I thought RSA was Republic of South Africa which usually is. RSA has no cases so far and they do have an advanced healthcare system so I suspect they could handle cases effectively. If folks did not suspect University of East Anglia then they would have to guess and if they. UAE gas four cases, all in one family which is much better than four independent cases.

I think you overestimate the importance of Chernobyl in the collapse of the Soviet Union. Afghanistan was enormously more important.

My wife's family in China are not affected. They are in Beijing except for my BIL and wife who are on a cruise to Antarctica and have arrived in Santiago, Chile (or will soon). They flew to Argentina via Chicago but I don't know what airline and if the airline is flying to China. He retired at 42 after deciding he had made enough money. His wife retired not long ago as a senior executive, rare for a woman, in a huge shipping company. They do not financial issues. My stepson's inlaws live in a small city between Shanghai and Wuhan. Haven't heard how they are being affected by this and whether he has extended the lunar new year holiday for his employees. On a personal level, looks like our trip from Beijing to Lhasa in May will not be happening. I don't think this thing will wind down in time for the tour company to organize the special permits foreigners need - one for Tibet and another for the Everest Base Camp probably next spring, the summer is too rainy with the monsoon coming in.

Some numbers

                       Cases                    Deaths

SARS              8437                         813

MERS.            2494                         888

this one.        ~7800                      ~170

Obviously more people will die but at first glance it appears that this one may not be as deadly as the other two, although more people may get sick. Also, the world, and China, is taking this one much more seriously.

The WHO has just declared this a global health emergency. What the practical significance of this is I don't know.

 

 

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Toronto where I live has close connections with China - we already have a couple (as in a husband and wife) of Corona virus patients. During SARS, about 45 people died here. One of my ex-students was an admitting clerk at one of the hospitals in a district with lots of Chinese people. She volunteered to be a clerk in the triage centre they set up in a big tent in the parking lot where anyone with a fever and cough was sent. She said that they had almost no business, perhaps one person every few hours and no one who ended up being diagnosed with SARS. Best thing for her was that she got double-time pay.

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3 hours ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

Gee, and I thought RSA was Republic of South Africa which usually is. RSA has no cases so far and they do have an advanced healthcare system so I suspect they could handle cases effectively. If folks did not suspect University of East Anglia then they would have to guess and if they. UAE gas four cases, all in one family which is much better than four independent cases.

I think you overestimate the importance of Chernobyl in the collapse of the Soviet Union. Afghanistan was enormously more important.

My wife's family in China are not affected. They are in Beijing except for my BIL and wife who are on a cruise to Antarctica and have arrived in Santiago, Chile (or will soon). They flew to Argentina via Chicago but I don't know what airline and if the airline is flying to China. He retired at 42 after deciding he had made enough money. His wife retired not long ago as a senior executive, rare for a woman, in a huge shipping company. They do not financial issues. My stepson's inlaws live in a small city between Shanghai and Wuhan. Haven't heard how they are being affected by this and whether he has extended the lunar new year holiday for his employees. On a personal level, looks like our trip from Beijing to Lhasa in May will not be happening. I don't think this thing will wind down in time for the tour company to organize the special permits foreigners need - one for Tibet and another for the Everest Base Camp probably next spring, the summer is too rainy with the monsoon coming in.

Some numbers

                       Cases                    Deaths

SARS              8437                         813

MERS.            2494                         888

this one.        ~7800                      ~170

Obviously more people will die but at first glance it appears that this one may not be as deadly as the other two, although more people may get sick. Also, the world, and China, is taking this one much more seriously.

The WHO has just declared this a global health emergency. What the practical significance of this is I don't know.

 

 

Numbers I’ve seen say SARS had a 10-15% mortality based on age and underlying health conditions. Research docs have been saying about 1% for nCoV. But, nCoV appears to be more easily transmitted with a fairly long incubation period so will likely infect more people. 
 

 

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The total number of cases seems to have broken away from an exponential progression... I know, one day is too short to confirm. But still, better than than the opposite!

 

image.thumb.png.f746102982b2abf8ed84734dd5713e30.png

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I have no clue if it’s much more than a media scare, but I’m in the camp of taking it a bit more seriously. Probably because I’ve been hanging around someone who left ground zero. Any of you folks who laugh about it want a hug?  

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1 hour ago, Monkey said:

I have no clue if it’s much more than a media scare, but I’m in the camp of taking it a bit more seriously. Probably because I’ve been hanging around someone who left ground zero. Any of you folks who laugh about it want a hug?  

I don't think anyone is laughing. After all, people are dying, thousands are sick and a major country's economy is in the dumper which will have a big impact on the world economy. All of this is not to say that the sky is falling as some (many) are wont to do. Don't know if I want a hug. Are you cute and cuddly?

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For the past week or so, we seem to be on an arithmetic progression of more or less 1800 new cases per day.

More importantly: China has represented consistently more than 98% of the total number of cases. The Hubei Province alone is 62% of the total number of cases...

Even if some may say that the measures taken by the Chinese government came too late, one may say that the epidemic is contained... so far...

 

image.thumb.png.08dec8cf482d8e75461819b3c6adc560.png

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1 hour ago, Laurent said:

For the past week or so, we seem to be on an arithmetic progression of more or less 1800 new cases per day.

More importantly: China has represented consistently more than 98% of the total number of cases. The Hubei Province alone is 62% of the total number of cases...

Even if some may say that the measures taken by the Chinese government came too late, one may say that the epidemic is contained... so far...

 

image.thumb.png.08dec8cf482d8e75461819b3c6adc560.png

 

first death outside of china,  phillipines has been reported..  china's containment is as good as the NY Jets D...   waiting for first death in vancouver..

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Though I promised to not post anymore on this issue... sometimes the need of the greater good, overrides the silencing of the self...

Finally a politician I can believe in...

 

 

 

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Wuhan's BSL-4 pathogen lab is known to have been bio-engineering immunotherapies utilising SHC014 coronaviruses found in horseshoe bats.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lab-made-coronavirus-triggers-debate-34502

In October 2013, the US government put a stop to all federal funding for this type of research deeming it highly risky.

(Currently my best guess as to how 2019-nCoV virus works, based on the non-peer reviewed Indian virology pdf paper)

Once an individual is infected, the HIV kernel part suppresses the body’s immune system, lowers blood-pressure and white blood cell counts. Thus stabilising the highly-infectious latency/cross infection period.At the same time the Bat SARS component goes into overdrive flooding your body with novel virus attaching to ACE2 receptors concentrated in the lungs and kidneys. 6-10 days post initial infection the body hits a tipping point and for some they become seriously compromised with viral pneumonia and if this isn’t quickly checked renal failure too. Not a good look.

Hence why in Thailand combination anti-viral therapies seem to making a stand against severely compromised patients: 2x HIV medicines Lopinavir & Ritonavir, mixed with anti-flu medication Oseltamivir (Tamiflu).

https://www.physiciansweekly.com/cocktail-of-flu-hiv/

One can only imagine the cost of this once the victim rate is into the thousands.

Some other points to note, once a body’s immune system is successfully depressed then of course conventional bacteria’s and viruses can take a hold too.

Though fictional as a clip, is this a prophetic statement?

 

 

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Finally these are two copied paras that I think carry some weight, given what we know so far:

- A coronavirus spontaneously mutated and jumped to humans at a wet market or deep in some random bat cave which just so happened to be 20 miles from China’s only BSL-4 virology lab, a virus with an unusually slippery never-before-seen genome that’s evading zoological classification, and whose spike-protein region which allows it to enter host cells appears most like a bio-engineered commercial product, that somehow managed to infect its first three and roughly one-third of its initial victims despite them not being connected to this market, and then be so fined-tuned to humans that it’s gone on to create the single greatest public health crisis in Chinese history with approaching 100 million citizens locked-down or quarantined – also causing Mongolia to close its border with its largest trading partner for the first time in modern history.

-   Or, Chinese scientists failed to follow correct sanitation protocols possibly while in a rush during their boisterous holiday season, something that had been anticipated since the opening of the BSL-4 lab and has happened at least four times previously, and accidentally released this bio-engineered Wuhan Strain – likely created by scientists researching immunotherapy regimes against bat coronaviruses, who’ve already demonstrated the ability to perform every step necessary to bio-engineer 2019-nCov – into their population, and now the world. As would be expected, this virus appears to have been bio-engineered at the spike-protein genes which was already done at UNC to make an extraordinarily virulent coronavirus. Chinese hesitancy to disclose the full story about what’s going on are because they want the scales to be even since they’re now facing a severe pandemic. No facts point against this conclusion.

Panic isn't a look I go for.

Being best informed is a universal right

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2 hours ago, Marinatrix447 said:

 

Panic isn't a look I go for.

Being best informed is a universal right

You're certainly good at playing up hysteria, posting false facts, and generally over-dramatizing for effect though aren't you?  Being 'informed' isn't being informed when it's all bullshit and forth hand information.

 

'Contagion' had a character very much like you.  You gonna start talking about 'the cure' soon?

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3 hours ago, Marinatrix447 said:

Finally these are two copied paras that I think carry some weight, given what we know so far:

If it is copied from the internet they must be true! By the tone of the pseudo-academic writing I would expect each claim to tag some references or footnotes. Do facts not cut and paste? Or what?

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For those that would like to read updating non-peer reviewed clinical papers... here are the links:

https://www.biorxiv.org/search/Wuhan%2B2019-nCov

The Indian teams 'controversial' paper:

"Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag."

Was withdrawn, not because it was fake, rather it attracted scathing MSM flak, the authors are therefore re-running their science... and will repost an update.

However here's the summary of what the paper stated:

2019-nCV is primarily a SARS type coronavirus. Its spike glycoprotein contains 4 insertions - none of which have ever been seen in another coronavirus before - all 4 of which are present in all human source samples so far of the Wuhan coronavirus, and these 4 perfectly match to a specific HIV-1 sequence.

They may be ‘short’ sequences, but they are sufficiently long for each to perform a task making the base coronavirus more survivable and more effective.

They came to the conclusion it’s unlikely a coronavirus would mutate to pick up all 4 novel insertions so quickly, also highly unlikely these 4 would match an existing HIV-1 sequence. These insertions conveniently providing 2019-nCoV with additional survival and infectivity advantage.

They are critical for the viruses to identify and latch on to their host cells and for viral assembly. The researchers express ‘surprise’… describe the findings as ‘uncanny’  state these findings are “unlikely to be fortuitous in nature” and “suggest unconventional evolution,” concluding that their “work highlights novel evolutionary aspects of the 2019-nCoV.”

Inevitably Zero Hedge picked up on the paper, and all hell broke loose.

As we all know ZH is essentially Alex Jones for 'alt-right' crazies who can read...

Yep... got it.

As an aside this is fictional vid, from last fall's Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation funded 'what if pandemic simulation fest'

What a coincedence .... running this a few months before shit got real!

 

 

 

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the question arises, why would you build a biological weapons lab in the middle of a highly populated city?  why not out in the country?   i guess you put it near a "suspect market" and if an outbreak occurs, you can blame it on the market...  

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From Johns Hopkins University website... here are the latest figures.

I did some math (Excel sheet, really...) and came up with the following numbers.

As a geometric suite, the number of daily cases have a factor of 1.1921 globally. What it means is; if you take the number of cases on the first reported day; and you assume that each day, the number of new cases is 1.1921 times more than the number of cases found the previous day, and you add them all up, you get to the current cumulative number of cases...

In other words, everyday, there are 19.21% more cases discovered, than there were cases discovered the previous day.

For China alone, the ratio is 1.1927

For Rest of the World alone, the ratio is 1.1358

image.thumb.png.4399cb27f44a29653df090289b008992.png

 

By the way, the curve of the geometric suite follows pretty well the total figures and the China figures, but not so much the Rest of World figures, which are still very low, so irregularities have more impact.

image.png.c707756fd1cfdab8878378ee0490f456.png

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45 minutes ago, Laurent said:

In other words, everyday, there are 19.21% more cases discovered, than there were cases discovered the previous day.

What? 

I could be wrong, but check your math, please. 

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1 hour ago, Laurent said:

From Johns Hopkins University website... here are the latest figures.

I did some math (Excel sheet, really...) and came up with the following numbers.

As a geometric suite, the number of daily cases have a factor of 1.1921 globally. What it means is; if you take the number of cases on the first reported day; and you assume that each day, the number of new cases is 1.1921 times more than the number of cases found the previous day, and you add them all up, you get to the current cumulative number of cases...

In other words, everyday, there are 19.21% more cases discovered, than there were cases discovered the previous day.

For China alone, the ratio is 1.1927

For Rest of the World alone, the ratio is 1.1358

image.thumb.png.4399cb27f44a29653df090289b008992.png

 

By the way, the curve of the geometric suite follows pretty well the total figures and the China figures, but not so much the Rest of World figures, which are still very low, so irregularities have more impact.

image.png.c707756fd1cfdab8878378ee0490f456.png

1.19^X = 7.8*10^9 people

X* log(1.19) = log(7.8*10^9)

X*0.076 = 9.89

X = 130 days to 100% infection

See you all on June 14 unless you (or I) are one of the lucky 2%...

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1 hour ago, justsomeguy! said:

What? 

I could be wrong, but check your math, please. 

Let me explain again.

Go to the Johns Hopkins University site here:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Put your pointer on top of the curves on the lower right corner. For each day, you can get the actual cumulative number of cases starting on January 19.

On January 19th (day 1 for the purpose of the graph), there were 278 cases in China and 4 in the rest of the world. Total 282.

When I took the graph in my previous post, there were 27,636 cases total on Feb 5th, 17 days later.

A geometric suite means that the next value is a fixed ratio bigger than the previous value. Let's call this ratio "q". In mathematical terms: Un+1 = q * Un

In this suite of 17 days, I am saying that the value of q is 1.19208, starting with 282 cases for the first day. You then calculate the number of cases for the whole 17 days, and you add them up: and you get 27,636 cases in total.

The number of "calculated" cases in day 2 is the number of cases in Day 1 times 1.19208, or 336.

The number of cases in day 3 is the number of cases in day 2 times 1.19208, or 401, and so on. Add them all up, and you get the current cumulative figure; on top of that, if you graph the numbers from the Johns Hopkins dashboard and that calculated geometric progression, they meet not only at the start and at the end, but also pretty well all along. This is the small graph I added at the end of my previous post.

Here is the actual table with the ratio of 1.19208...

image.png.37cb509691fe69a9aea56773e38ce779.png

Hope this helps.

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15 minutes ago, weightless said:

Party pooper. Can't you let a guy be happy with a zero-order model?

Anyway, logistic is still exponential for the first half but I'll give you the point. Call it 260 days for 100% infection: October 22. Time enough for a decent sailing season...

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15 minutes ago, weightless said:

Totally agree that the type of growth I graphed is not viable on the long term. There must be a point of inflection at... some point...

I did not know about logistics growth model curves; but it is going to be something like this most likely. The tricky part is the logistics growth function uses a predetermined "capacity" or upper limit to be defined...

Smartass who ever could tell what the total number of cases will be once everything will be set and done...

I just hope that IStream is wrong.... :D

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37 minutes ago, Laurent said:

Totally agree that the type of growth I graphed is not viable on the long term. There must be a point of inflection at... some point...

I did not know about logistics growth model curves; but it is going to be something like this most likely. The tricky part is the logistics growth function uses a predetermined "capacity" or upper limit to be defined...

Smartass who ever could tell what the total number of cases will be once everything will be set and done...

I just hope that IStream is wrong.... :D

Yep, I suspect, though simplistic, that it'll be the general shape of things in the long run. That's not useful since "in the long run we are all dead." 

I admire IStream's specificity. I am profoundly gladdened to learn that humanity has got another boating season before the Apocalypse. Enjoy! ;)

 

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Sheesh.  Should I max out my credit card now?  
 

you guys are painting a bleak picture. 

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8 hours ago, Marinatrix447 said:

For those that would like to read updating non-peer reviewed clinical papers... here are the links:

https://www.biorxiv.org/search/Wuhan%2B2019-nCov

The Indian teams 'controversial' paper:

"Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag."

 

Was withdrawn, not because it was fake, rather it attracted scathing MSM flak, the authors are therefore re-running their science... and will repost an update.

However here's the summary of what the paper stated:

2019-nCV is primarily a SARS type coronavirus. Its spike glycoprotein contains 4 insertions - none of which have ever been seen in another coronavirus before - all 4 of which are present in all human source samples so far of the Wuhan coronavirus, and these 4 perfectly match to a specific HIV-1 sequence.

 

They may be ‘short’ sequences, but they are sufficiently long for each to perform a task making the base coronavirus more survivable and more effective.

 

They came to the conclusion it’s unlikely a coronavirus would mutate to pick up all 4 novel insertions so quickly, also highly unlikely these 4 would match an existing HIV-1 sequence. These insertions conveniently providing 2019-nCoV with additional survival and infectivity advantage.

 

They are critical for the viruses to identify and latch on to their host cells and for viral assembly. The researchers express ‘surprise’… describe the findings as ‘uncanny’  state these findings are “unlikely to be fortuitous in nature” and “suggest unconventional evolution,” concluding that their “work highlights novel evolutionary aspects of the 2019-nCoV.”

 

Inevitably Zero Hedge picked up on the paper, and all hell broke loose.

As we all know ZH is essentially Alex Jones for 'alt-right' crazies who can read...

Yep... got it.

As an aside this is fictional vid, from last fall's Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation funded 'what if pandemic simulation fest'

What a coincedence .... running this a few months before shit got real!

 

 

 

I am sure you will find a more receptive audience for the bull shit you are vomiting here, on some whacked out conspiracy website, rather than wasting the electrons on this site.

Maybe you can find Random somewhere out there, he's more your type.

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Gawd forbid it shows up on the continent of Africa......actually it could already be there and no one realizes it...other shit hole large population land masses too...

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9 hours ago, IStream said:

logistic is still exponential for the first half

The exponential result is what I was expecting, not necessarily a fixed multiplier.

But math never was my strong suit.

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