BravoBravo

"2019-nCoV"

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30 minutes ago, weightless said:

No apologies needed! Just thinking that the hokey worldometers.info name might be putting folks off what looks like a pretty good aggregator to me.

For seasonal flu demos maybe try: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

image.png.9429f3e024a1dae84215fd732b3f2146.png

Thanks for the data, so comparing Influenza in the US 2018-2019 and COVID19 in China up to Feb 11th, we get the following. Sorry for the offset, but the age buckets are not the same...

image.png.b18986ee228439a2eac382322881df26.png

More or less, if you are infected, you are 10 to 20 times more likely to die with COVID19 than with the flue... A worrisome ratio in itself, but not a "we're all gonna die" worrisome ratio... The big question is: if those fatality ratios in the infected population hold, how many people are going to be infected? How contagious is it? And on that matter, if the Harvard epidemiologist I quoted on post 288 is right, then we are fucked...

But as a species, we will survive... 

 

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1 hour ago, Laurent said:

Talking about death rate, some interesting, even if somewhat outdated, data here (Feb 11 figures)

http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51

Go to Table 1 at the bottom of the article.

81% of the total number of deaths are from patients over 60 years of age.

If you are below 50 years old, your fatality rate is less than 0.5% (i.e. out of 200 patients who were less than 50 years old, one have died).

If you are over 80 years old, your fatality rate is 14.8%... (i.e. out of 7 patients who were over 80 years old, one have died)

The outcome seems to be very age sensitive.

 

TABLE 1.  Patients, deaths, and case fatality rates, as well as observed time and mortality for n=44,672 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Mainland China as of February 11, 2020.

Baseline characteristics

Confirmed cases,
N (%)

Deaths,
N (%)

Case fatality
rate, %

Observed time,
PD

Mortality,
per 10 PD

Overall

44,672

1,023

2.3

661,609

0.015

Age, years

         

 0–9

416 (0.9)

4,383

 10–19

549 (1.2)

1 (0.1)

0.2

6,625

0.002

 20–29

3,619 (8.1)

7 (0.7)

0.2

53,953

0.001

 30–39

7,600 (17.0)

18 (1.8)

0.2

114,550

0.002

 40–49

8,571 (19.2)

38 (3.7)

0.4

128,448

0.003

 50–59

10,008 (22.4)

130 (12.7)

1.3

151,059

0.009

 60–69

8,583 (19.2)

309 (30.2)

3.6

128,088

0.024

 70–79

3,918 (8.8)

312 (30.5)

8.0

55,832

0.056

 ≥80

1,408 (3.2)

208 (20.3)

14.8

18,671

0.111

 

 

 

 

EDIT:

SORRY WEIGHTLESS, just realized you posted similar data a few posts up...

That age distribution reminds me of mosquito-vectored diseases common to large cities like West Nile.

How many of the elderly people who died from West Nile (or Corona) died from typical age-related lung diseases and tested positive for otherwise asymptomatic virus infections?

Two seventy year old men, both die from pneumonia-like symptoms, one tests positive for West Nile (or Corona) and the other tests negative. How do we then decide if the infected one died from pneumonia-like symptoms or from the infection?

It seems an obvious way to cheat the virus here ... keep your lungs and cardiovascular system healthy, and your chances of being "asymptomatic" from your infection them rapidly increase.

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5 hours ago, Marinatrix447 said:

 

 

 

Be prep’d best you can be for family…friends and loved ones… Keep smiling!

 

 

 

 

got it,  1000 rolls of tp, 9000 gals water,  600 boxes of mac & cheese.....   10,000 rds of 7.9

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4 minutes ago, Grande Mastere Dreade said:

 

got it,  1000 rolls of tp, 9000 gals water,  600 boxes of mac & cheese.....   10,000 rds of 7.9

Don't forget the mines!  

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so how do you get this shit to spread to every country? easy 

Quote

The 2020 Summer Olympics are set to take place in Tokyo, Japan, beginning in late July – hopefully, anyway.

The International Olympics Committee said on Tuesday that the Summer Olympics are being threatened by the Coronavirus. It’s possible that the Summer Olympics could be canceled as a result.

Dick Pound, a long serving member of the IOC, told the Associated Press that it’s unlikely the Summer Olympics will be moved to a different location – or postponed. If the Coronavirus is not gotten under control by later this spring, the Olympics could face cancelation.

A decision on the Tokyo Olympics will likely be made by late May. There is a two or three-month window to get everything under control, he said.

 

“In and around that time, I’d say folks are going to have to ask: ‘Is this under sufficient control that we can be confident about going to Tokyo or not?’”

 

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"Dick Pound, a long serving member"...

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5 hours ago, Laurent said:

Just noticed that. I apologize for the repeat.

It is important to note that the average fatality rate may not be that relevant of what to expect on a personal basis. It varies greatly depending on age. I don't have similar figures for the flue. Do you know where to find it? It would be interesting to compare the "age ratio of the fatality ratio" for the flue and for the coronavirus. What I mean is for the coronavirus, it is 1/7 for 80 y.o. and above vs. 1/200 for 50 y.o. and below.

So if you are infected, you are 28 times more likely to die from it if you are over 80 instead of below 50 (200/7). What is this ratio for the flue? Is it as much age discriminatory?

I saw similar data when West Nile first showed up in North America.   The average age on diagnosis was 55.    The average age requiring hospital care was 65.   The average age of the fatalities was 78.    Debilitated or infirm people do not do well when facing a novel pathogen.   You posted interesting data.     It looks like risk is similar or greater in the US, except we may have a little less chronic lung disease thanks to the EPA and anti tobacco efforts??

@Windward had an interesting question on smoking.   I recall something on TV (Nova?) looking at that several years ago, with the Spanish Flu,   I don’t recall if any conclusions were reached.  

C5EE76C7-5542-43AA-B6BB-8FE42F615B4C.jpeg

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9 minutes ago, Lark said:

I saw similar data when West Nile first showed up in North America.   The average age on diagnosis was 55.    The average age requiring hospital care was 65.   The average age of the fatalities was 78.    Debilitated or infirm people do not do well when facing a novel pathogen.   You posted interesting data.     It looks like risk is similar or greater in the US, except we may have a little less chronic lung disease thanks to the EPA and anti tobacco efforts??

@Windward had an interesting question on smoking.   I recall something on TV (Nova?) looking at that several years ago, with the Spanish Flu,   I don’t recall if any conclusions were reached.  

C5EE76C7-5542-43AA-B6BB-8FE42F615B4C.jpeg

Maybe this is part of bringing Social Security and Medicare costs under control, and well a the lower income households 

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We are traveling to NOLA in a week and then on to the Dominican Republic to meet our live-aboard vessel and trip out onto the Silver Banks for the whales. I have to say I am not thrilled about the latest news and assessments from the CDC about the likelihood of a global pandemic and near certainty it will become a wider spread health care issue in the US soon. The chances of containment are now assessed as very low to nil. I understand the disease morbidity/mortality assessments and routes of transmission. We will have to contemplate the risk/reward of both domestic and international travel during the week. 

Inconvenient timing for a pandemic..................

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1 minute ago, BravoBravo said:

Maybe this is part of bringing Social Security and Medicare costs under control, and well a the lower income households 

This may be an expensive way to rid society of its dead weight.

If you want something to worry about, one odd ball coronavirus in cats can trick the immune system into destroying the body, a misguided farmer trying to keep groundhogs from damaging his foundation by dropping hand grenades into the holes.   Google FIP.      No, I have no reason to believe this virus will do that to children.    FIP exploits kittens with weak immune systems in crowded locations, so maybe this virus was engineered to kill orphans?    

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This be the summary vid page today from Chris Martenson’s channel…

Untitled-1.thumb.jpg.9b0b246c6a23dc6a819679be206c4045.jpg

https://www.youtube.com/user/ChrisMartensondotcom/videos

For me the update main take-away, if this virus does get a grip of you, lower lungs it accumulates in - where it will show on scans. Assuming you can afford private, quality healthcare and get swiftly tested? In Japan now with pandemic numbers… testing for most is a non-event.

I would say Peak Prosperity was my 1st source of useful heads-up ‘bug’ warnings a few weeks back. Obviously, got the masks, disposable gloves and basics for safer travel etc. etc. pre the price gouging’s.

I would imagine the 1%ers will be on their superyachts early this Med season, and/or hunkered down in the bunkers of NZ.

Private charter flights soaring to avoid the masses general public 99%ers on infected airline flights.

(Oh the horror… the horror)

Antidote du jour?

d.thumb.jpg.ce3c9624aaabb37c3eb4b77904c18a08.jpg

 

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17 minutes ago, Marinatrix447 said:

This be the summary vid page today from Chris Martenson’s channel…

Untitled-1.thumb.jpg.9b0b246c6a23dc6a819679be206c4045.jpg

https://www.youtube.com/user/ChrisMartensondotcom/videos

For me the update main take-away, if this virus does get a grip of you, lower lungs it accumulates in - where it will show on scans. Assuming you can afford private, quality healthcare and get swiftly tested? In Japan now with pandemic numbers… testing for most is a non-event.

I would say Peak Prosperity was my 1st source of useful heads-up ‘bug’ warnings a few weeks back. Obviously, got the masks, disposable gloves and basics for safer travel etc. etc. pre the price gouging’s.

I would imagine the 1%ers will be on their superyachts early this Med season, and/or hunkered down in the bunkers of NZ.

Private charter flights soaring to avoid the masses general public 99%ers on infected airline flights.

(Oh the horror… the horror)

Antidote du jour?

d.thumb.jpg.ce3c9624aaabb37c3eb4b77904c18a08.jpg

 

Last night I saw a bio on the dude running the WHO.....incompetent thieving scumbag bureaucrat....probably in that order...  

Will the "unseen class " have anything to come back to ?

Years ago I was falling asleep after the christening party for the yacht "Mine Games"...the dude that died in a helo crash in the Bahamas a few years ago. Anyway I was doing some simple math in my head and...30 million was the number for the yacht, (Trinity ) POS's....anyway someone making 30k a year would have to save every paycheck for a 1,000 years.....and there are many many in the "unseen class"...

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Quote

Brazil confirmed Latin America's first infection.

South America is now fucked..

Quote

Private charter flights soaring to avoid the masses general public 99%ers on infected airline flights.

only for the super wealthy and where are they going to go?  from their house on the west coast to the one on the east coast and back? still have to interact with a lot of people..   tourist industry will be massively fucked.  who will want to go stay in some strange room?   now's the time for sailing tourism, if you have a big enough boat, you can do  air sun-n-sail,   easier to sanitize and many more places to go where there aren't a lot of other people

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They are starting precautions out here on the rigs.  Before you fly out there is a questionnaire and you get your temp taken prior to coming out.

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With the age group getting nailed maybe it is nature having revenge on the nasty boomers.

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The traveling is going to get affected soon.  Unfortunate for people who travel by airplane a lot like myself.  I'm mostly worried for my little ones most of all.  Their immune systems aren't quite fully developed, and kids aren't surviving this it seems.  Hopefully it passes on like swine flu and bird flu did.

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1 hour ago, Gissie said:

With the age group getting nailed maybe it is nature having revenge on the nasty boomers.

That seems a bit rude.  
 

We all have parents, and some may be in the crosshairs of this.  

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25 minutes ago, Al Paca said:

VP Pence now in charge. First order of business: more prayers. 

Don't forget the Thoughts. We'll be needing plenty of both pretty soon...

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1 hour ago, Jkdubz808 said:

kids aren't surviving this it seems

Is there newer / better data that shows that? This study shows kids surviving best.

image.thumb.png.fcf88475f5fb0b84f5b680391dbabd74.png

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23 minutes ago, weightless said:

Is there newer / better data that shows that? This study shows kids surviving best.

image.thumb.png.fcf88475f5fb0b84f5b680391dbabd74.png

That is much more positive.  Maybe it was the earlier studies I was looking at.  With all the different media out there it varies all over the spectrum it seems.  The above is much better to see.

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2 hours ago, Windward said:

That seems a bit rude.  
 

We all have parents, and some may be in the crosshairs of this.  

I don’t have parents left, been decades. Plus it puts me in the crosshairs, so lighten up snowflake. :P

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9 hours ago, Grande Mastere Dreade said:

South America is now fucked..

only for the super wealthy and where are they going to go?  from their house on the west coast to the one on the east coast and back? still have to interact with a lot of people..   tourist industry will be massively fucked.  who will want to go stay in some strange room?   now's the time for sailing tourism, if you have a big enough boat, you can do  air sun-n-sail,   easier to sanitize and many more places to go where there aren't a lot of other people

With these refusals for cruise ships to come into port popping up now, how long before the that industry collapses? Their monthly nut to keep business afloat must be huge.

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16 minutes ago, hobot said:

With these refusals for cruise ships to come into port popping up now, how long before the that industry collapses? Their monthly nut to keep business afloat must be huge.

Conventions?    Big box stores?   Restaurants?    What other industries will take the biggest hit?  Conjecture and business contingency plans anybody?

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30 minutes ago, Lark said:

Conventions?    Big box stores?   Restaurants?    What other industries will take the biggest hit?  Conjecture and business contingency plans anybody?

in SA it was suggested to take old boats and turn them into homes for the homeless..    why not cruise ships...

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1 hour ago, hobot said:

With these refusals for cruise ships to come into port popping up now, how long before the that industry collapses? Their monthly nut to keep business afloat must be huge.

I was watching a show on SBS last night. 100% commercials were for Cruises..all of them offering between $2-6000 discounts per couple.

Getting those monstrosities out of the picture has to be an upside. 

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6 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

I was watching a show on SBS last night. 100% commercials were for Cruises..all of them offering between $2-6000 discounts per couple.

Getting those monstrosities out of the picture has to be an upside. 

I couldn't imagine a worse experience at sea than being stuck on a cruise ship, and that was before this latest outbreak.

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Saudi has just introduced a ban on anyone going to Saudi for the pilgramage from countries that have Covid

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9 minutes ago, The Q said:

Saudi has just introduced a ban on anyone going to Saudi for the pilgramage from countries that have Covid

In a months time, that's going to be every country on the planet. :unsure:

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49 minutes ago, The Q said:

Saudi has just introduced a ban on anyone going to Saudi for the pilgramage from countries that have Covid

Actually they've banned all overseas travelers to both Mecca and Medina.

I'm actually quite impressed with the way almost all countries are responding to this threat.

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14 minutes ago, billy backstay said:

 

Interesting?  Never heard of that before......

Like Hutt. Just another bunch of whackers with delusions of royalty.

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11 hours ago, IStream said:

Don't forget the Thoughts. We'll be needing plenty of both pretty soon...

when Trump and Pence get it , I give them my thoughts and prayers, and that's from an athiest,

how's trump wall doing keeping the BUGS out?

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1 hour ago, Shortforbob said:

Like Hutt. Just another bunch of whackers with delusions of royalty.

undefined

 

:P

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1 hour ago, Shortforbob said:

 

I'm actually quite impressed with the way almost all countries are responding to this threat.

Meh.

Reminds me of the way everyone runs to the supermarket in November to buy everything they can when they hear it's going to snow. It then snows four inches.

But by March everyone gets brave and unprepared, at which point it snows 18 inches.

By the time the days get hot, the aftermath of Corona will be a blip compared to the regular old seasonal flu and community pneumonia.

This current Corona virus has so far killed fewer people than diarrhea kills in a single day.

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Despite POTUS Thumps briefing on Covid-19 last night that it was BIGLY under control Stateside... errgh nope, sorry I think not.

(SHUT THE F#CK UP DONNY)

The proof will be how this rolls out over the next two critical weeks, in the currently less compromised nation states.

BTW - Flights from Thailand to China have never been stopped... and Chinese wanting out of the mother country simply had to hop on a plane to Thailand, and then vector out of there. Simples.

This is the best tech breakdown of where we are at with this beastly bug IMO.

https://jameslyonsweiler.com/2020/02/26/things-you-dont-yet-know-but-need-to-know-about-the-novel-coronavirus-including-treatment-information-and-how-to-prepare-your-home/

Key points for me personally:

1. Infected people without symptoms can spread the virus - asymptomatic transmission is anywhere from one to two weeks – or longer.

(This is why temp sensing guns in airports are frankly useless)

2. There is no vaccine for SARS-CoV-2

Even if there were, previously with SARS vaccines on animal testing, spike proteins exacerbated mortaility rate with re-exposures to viruses. So no thank you, I'll pass on that option.

3. If you do find yourself seriously compromised, Remdesivir and Chloroquine phospahte seem to be the most effective treatments

George Soros dumped out of biotech Gilead Sciences a few years back, he may now regret this.

4. The best way to protect yourself and everyone else to stay away from people.

Kinda tells you why in the West 1st world this aint gonna happen.

5. In end-stage COVID-19, oxygen support is essential.

The nature of this bug is lungs, kidneys, heart and in men, your balls are key latch on cell zones.

Antidote du jour?

Quarantine management in the Tenerife Hotel, as I type. Perhaps I should have posted this in NQR?

 

25229084-8047393-image-a-35_1582730758548.thumb.jpg.09ee6df57404c08272ffe0c2e853b4a6.jpg

 

 

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4 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Meh. Reminds me of the way everyone runs to the supermarket in November to buy everything they can when they hear it's going to snow. It then snows four inches.

But by March everyone gets brave and unprepared, at which point it snows 18 inches.

By the time the days get hot, the aftermath of Corona will be a blip compared to the regular old seasonal flu and community pneumonia.

True...but how, when and where it will manifest itself next fall is the other shoe....

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1 minute ago, BravoBravo said:

True...but how, when and when it will manifest itself next fall is the other shoe....

Within a few years, both the threat and vaccine will get rolled up into "seasonal flu."

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Just now, mikewof said:

Within a few years, both the threat and vaccine will get rolled up into "seasonal flu."

probably true..and probably true there will be vaccine available to all...and the beat goes on 

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I was thinking my little small town might not be a bad place to survive until a buddy walked in and announced his daughter had just returned from Viet Nam.    

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24 minutes ago, Marinatrix447 said:

Tl;Dr

I thought you said you were done commenting on this thread a long time ago.

 

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Blue Crab said:

I was thinking my little small town might not be a bad place to survive until a buddy walked in and announced his daughter had just returned from Viet Nam.    

As long as you are self isolated in your house....you will be fine !

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2 minutes ago, Ed Lada said:

 

SA is highly addictive but not communicable 

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I did indeed Ed.. so keenly observed.

Why not negatively flag me to make it more official, as you have done previously?

I think this issue is a serious one, so changed my mind on opting out. Though I also find elements of its current official handling tragicomic

Perhaps put me on ignore…?

Just a thought...

 

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1 hour ago, Ed Lada said:

 

It'd be nice if the alarmism and misinformation would stop.  But attention is what it's begging for, so I don't see it happening.  Some people just live for drama.

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1 hour ago, Marinatrix447 said:

I did indeed Ed.. so keenly observed.

Why not negatively flag me to make it more official, as you have done previously?

I think this issue is a serious one, so changed my mind on opting out. Though I also find elements of its current official handling tragicomic

Perhaps put me on ignore…?

Just a thought...

 

I don't know what you mean by "negatively flagging" you.  If you mean the down vote button, if I did that, which I rarely do to anyone, then my advice to you is to HTFU.  If you mean reporting you to the mods, I have never done that to anyone here.

If you don't like my comment about you, I would politely suggest you put me on ignore.

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1 hour ago, BravoBravo said:

SA is highly addictive but not communicable 

Thank the FSM for that!

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22 minutes ago, Grrr... said:

It'd be nice if the alarmism and misinformation would stop.  But attention is what it's begging for, so I don't see it happening.  Some people just live for drama.

'Tis unfortunately true.

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On ‎2‎/‎25‎/‎2020 at 4:17 PM, Point Break said:

We are traveling to NOLA in a week and then on to the Dominican Republic to meet our live-aboard vessel and trip out onto the Silver Banks for the whales. I have to say I am not thrilled about the latest news and assessments from the CDC about the likelihood of a global pandemic

Hmmmm.... being on a boat, away from people, might be the perfect place to be if it develops into a global pandemic.

Bring fishing gear and spare filters for the water-maker.

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It appears that the Chinese tourist couple who were the first to fall ill in Rome have fully recovered, and they have been treated with a drug developed against Ebola!

On a different subject, asking who’ll pay if falling ill in the US? Would this be a (free) ER treatment? Consider that the above couple spent a good two weeks in Intensive Care - of course they didn’t have to pay a cent, and it would have been the same for an undocumented migrant

 

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I've got an industry conference in NOLA at the end of March that usually draws a large contingent from the Far East and Europe. As of now they are saying it will go on as scheduled but I will be following it closely over the next couple of weeks. I flew domestically a couple of times this week and the number of surgical masks I saw really increased between Monday and Wednesday. I'm just glad the next two weeks I'll be either in my home office or sailing. 

 

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3 hours ago, BravoBravo said:

SA is highly addictive but not communicable 

Don't leave your browser window open when you pop out to the pub tonight.

Save the children!

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2 hours ago, Grrr... said:

It'd be nice if the alarmism and misinformation would stop.  But attention is what it's begging for, so I don't see it happening.  Some people just live for drama.

Looks like the Pope may have it. If Sky Father’s point man has it it’s over. 

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Lysol kills it!  If you suspect someone has just spray them in the face :lol::lol:

88210246_1155691764763406_8554101027014443008_n.jpg

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6 hours ago, Marinatrix447 said:

 

3. If you do find yourself seriously compromised, Remdesivir and Chloroquine phospahte seem to be the most effective treatments

George Soros dumped out of biotech Gilead Sciences a few years back, he may now regret this.

 

I read an article about some good post infection outcomes from Remdesivir.  Jumping back in GILD after giving up on it a few years back. Small position. It may take a long time to approve a from scratch vaccine or treatment. Way too early to tell but in the few cases used so far, it sounds promising

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19 hours ago, Al Paca said:

VP Pence now in charge. First order of business: more prayers. 

Well, of the default White House options of Jared, Ivanka and Pence being put in charge of bigly important stuff, at least tRump chose the worst one -someone who actually has experience in causing a medical emergency.

So that's comforting.  It's good to have stability at the top.

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3 hours ago, Jkdubz808 said:

Lysol kills it!  If you suspect someone has just spray them in the face :lol::lol:

88210246_1155691764763406_8554101027014443008_n.jpg

Vodka also kills it.   1 minute contact time required.    

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31 minutes ago, Lark said:

Vodka also kills it.   1 minute contact time required.    

A handgun kills it too. Instantly.

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I saw Japan closed schools nationwide.   Interesting, since children seem the least affected.   

Between reduced manpower and a drop in foot traffic, it would seem most businesses  would expect a drop, maybe comparable to a blizzard, for a couple weeks.    The logical precaution is to watch inventory levels closely or cut them back in fear of a drop in cash flow.   On the other hand, it seems things are already going on backorder.    Even if your part is ready to ship, the ship may be delayed since it doesn't have a full load.   Port of LA is forecasting a 25% drop in February traffic with 40 sailings already cancelled between Feb 11 and April 1 2020.    A lot of things not made in China have components  made in China.   This means production problems will be felt up and down the supply line for weeks if not months.   Kia and Hyundai have suspended production due to a lack of wiring harnesses per CNN    Backorders may become an increasing problem-especially for the big players that don't have to buy in bulk to achieve good terms and manage their inventory just on time.    So the dilemma is to keep ordering routinely and watch the backorders increase, stock up as possible, or cut back?     Are backorders becoming a problem for others too?

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7 hours ago, Grrr... said:

It'd be nice if the alarmism and misinformation would stop.  But attention is what it's begging for, so I don't see it happening.  Some people just live for drama.

you keeps saying that,  any insight as to why you think so?  you're starting to sound like a government shill...    the virus has now shown up in numerous third world countries and since most of the posters on this forum are in the more likely to die age range, it is a concern..

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6 minutes ago, Grande Mastere Dreade said:

you keeps saying that,  any insight as to why you think so?  you're starting to sound like a government shill...    the virus has now shown up in numerous third world countries and since most of the posters on this forum are in the more likely to die age range, it is a concern..

The World Health Org publishes a daily situation report and other useful stuff.

By all means we can get our vicarious thrills from any number of media outlets both sensationalist or not so sensationalist. But ground ourselves with WHO first.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200227-sitrep-38-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=9f98940c_2

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On 2/25/2020 at 1:54 PM, Shortforbob said:

Someone implied the the World health authority was not to be trusted.

I've rather get my information from them than Foxy.

WHO announcements 

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

 

There are people here on SA who are adamant that they don't trust peer-reviewed science.  I sure hope those folks don't take any drugs or go see a doctor for treatment if they get this.  After all, the drugs and treatments for these types of things are all based on peer-reviewed science.

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The community spread coronavirus case in California is on a ventilator.   He was transferred from another hospital, but had not been tested for the first few days since "the CDC ruled out testing since the case did not match its criteria".    California department of public health is not testing for coronavirus at this time.   This really makes me wonder how many other cases are out there, working through the system.   If they don't end up on a ventilator they aren't being identified.    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/02/27/809944423/diagnosis-of-coronavirus-patient-in-california-was-delayed-for-days

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Just now, Rain Man said:

There are people here on SA who are adamant that they don't trust peer-reviewed science.  I sure hope those folks don't take any drugs or go see a doctor for treatment if they get this.  After all, the drugs and treatments for these types of things are all based on peer-reviewed science.

That's cool. Those that don't trust peer reviewed science are most likely older and more likely to ignore health warnings and more likely to attend mass crowd events.attended by similar of breeding age :D 

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9 minutes ago, Lark said:

If they don't end up on a ventilator they aren't being identified.

Perhaps because the primary goal of the diagnostic procedure is saving the patient. Versus providing statistics. Whether or not a patient with severe pneumonia has a particular virus is presently of little use in the treatment.

Testing everyone with a few symptoms might not be practical at this time.

It would seem they might bump the priority of testing up a bit given the wider pandemic issues. However, I defer to the professionals. The extreme complexity of the situation is why Pence is exactly the worst choice.

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13 minutes ago, El Boracho said:

Perhaps because the primary goal of the diagnostic procedure is saving the patient. Versus providing statistics. Whether or not a patient with severe pneumonia has a particular virus is presently of little use in the treatment.

Testing everyone with a few symptoms might not be practical at this time.

It would seem they might bump the priority of testing up a bit given the wider pandemic issues. However, I defer to the professionals. The extreme complexity of the situation is why Pence is exactly the worst choice.

Why is Pence a poor choice? He is tasked with organizing a team not offering medical/ scientific findings... the team will provide guidance 

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3 minutes ago, Lark said:

This really makes me wonder how many other cases are out there, working through the system.

Yep. On the other hand, if it is already widespread in the community but the number of serious cases presenting hasn't risen maybe the thing is less deadly than feared?

Is it plausible that the thing has peaked in Hubei? Maybe it's half way through its course? Fractions of the Hubei population and deaths from Table 1 projected onto the world population below. I'm not sure what to make of it, if anything. Does it make sense that if 40% of the population of Hubei has been exposed and gotten sick or developed immunity that the populations level fatality rate is 0.01%? Is it useful / valid to project that out? GIGO?

image.png.66c0214cc4c287518ec29dd6b5bae0f8.png

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49 minutes ago, Lark said:

I saw Japan closed schools nationwide.   Interesting, since children seem the least affected.   

Between reduced manpower and a drop in foot traffic, it would seem most businesses  would expect a drop, maybe comparable to a blizzard, for a couple weeks.    The logical precaution is to watch inventory levels closely or cut them back in fear of a drop in cash flow.   On the other hand, it seems things are already going on backorder.    Even if your part is ready to ship, the ship may be delayed since it doesn't have a full load.   Port of LA is forecasting a 25% drop in February traffic with 40 sailings already cancelled between Feb 11 and April 1 2020.    A lot of things not made in China have components  made in China.   This means production problems will be felt up and down the supply line for weeks if not months.   Kia and Hyundai have suspended production due to a lack of wiring harnesses per CNN    Backorders may become an increasing problem-especially for the big players that don't have to buy in bulk to achieve good terms and manage their inventory just on time.    So the dilemma is to keep ordering routinely and watch the backorders increase, stock up as possible, or cut back?     Are backorders becoming a problem for others too?

We are a Midwest USA manufacturer of accessory equipment for pulp/paper, strip steel plants, food processors, etc. We can only get heat tempered 400 series stainless strip from sources in Korea and China. (No one in USA makes it anymore, but it got lumped in to tariff  wars. But that’s a different headache).  Delivery of next couple orders undetermined at this point. Force majeure notices going out next week. 

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37 minutes ago, El Boracho said:

Perhaps because the primary goal of the diagnostic procedure is saving the patient. Versus providing statistics. Whether or not a patient with severe pneumonia has a particular virus is presently of little use in the treatment.

Testing everyone with a few symptoms might not be practical at this time.

It would seem they might bump the priority of testing up a bit given the wider pandemic issues. However, I defer to the professionals. The extreme complexity of the situation is why Pence is exactly the worst choice.

Of you don't look for it you don't have to diagnose it.   We need somebody that actually believes in evidence and has understanding of epidemiology to be in charge.     I sincerely hope VP Pence shows up each morning, leads the task force in a (brief) moment of prayer, then gets out of the way and lets the smart people do their work without hindrance or too many stupid questions.    I especially hope no scientific facts interfere with his predetermined belief system.   For example, his faith will tell him this virus was created in its present form and has not evolved over time.

@weightless  IMO serology (testing for exposure vs clinical disease) will be the only way to identify prevalence (exposed people that did not get sick, did not seek medical attention or didn't receive a diagnosis at the time of illness).  I hope they are conducting a statistically significant sampling of the cruise ship passengers, for example, 2-4 weeks after their lives get back to normal.   Likewise a statistical sampling of Hubei citizens will be the only way to see how wide spread it truly was.    PCR Screening a percent of all newly diagnosed infectious respiratory cases would allow surveillance and tracking of disease spread.  It will miss cases, and may be slow to detect disease presence in new cities, but will show its spread around the planet and determine if any control measures have been useful.    I'm armchair quarterbacking the CDC and WHO.   Maybe they have a valid plan in place and are free of political interference.

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12 minutes ago, Lark said:

 For example, his faith will tell him this virus was created in its present form and has not evolved over time.

I know this is a true statement of their belief, so do these folks think God just dropped this one down on us? For giggles?

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4 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

I know this is a true statement of their belief, so do these folks think God just dropped this one down on us? For giggles?

 Check your PA shit at the door 

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29 minutes ago, BravoBravo said:

 Check your PA shit at the door 

It's religion not politics.

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1 minute ago, Shortforbob said:

It's religion not politics.

You too

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2 hours ago, BravoBravo said:

 

24 to as much as 30 day quarantine is indicated. Oops.

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19 minutes ago, chum said:

24 to as much as 30 day quarantine is indicated. Oops.

That video wasn't just click bait?

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3 hours ago, BravoBravo said:

You too

Given all government departments,  including the CDC, now can only release press releases through pence / whitehouse I'd say any inputs regarding political or religious bias by the politicians in charge is relevant to this thread. 

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And add to the mix the topic of insurance.  A story (true or untrue) upstream in this thread points out a gaping hole in the US response plan. Guy with insurance got slapped with a 3k bill.

If you have insurance, (of questionable value) and go to the hospital because you think you have the virus, who pays?

Hospitals bill those with insurance at a very enthusiastic pace.

No insurance?  You are good.

Medicare?  Probably fine from the insurance standpoint.

Great insurance? Good as well.

Mediocre insurance?  Will you go to get tested, or tough it out and keep spreading until its bad enough to remove your choice. 

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1 hour ago, Windward said:

And add to the mix the topic of insurance.  A story (true or untrue) upstream in this thread points out a gaping hole in the US response plan. Guy with insurance got slapped with a 3k bill.

If you have insurance, (of questionable value) and go to the hospital because you think you have the virus, who pays?

Hospitals bill those with insurance at a very enthusiastic pace.

No insurance?  You are good.

Medicare?  Probably fine from the insurance standpoint.

Great insurance? Good as well.

Mediocre insurance?  Will you go to get tested, or tough it out and keep spreading until its bad enough to remove your choice. 

If this is managed properly there will be a moratorium on billing anyone showing symptoms for consultations/testing and hospitalization if required. 

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5 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

If this is managed properly there will be a moratorium on billing anyone showing symptoms for consultations/testing and hospitalization if required. 

Heresy! ;)

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12 hours ago, BravoBravo said:

 

 

He lost me in the beginning when he said 'Infowars'.

Of course it's all a big conspiracy involving multiple agencies and governments all over the world.  Of course I believe that the US would be working with China on bio warfare weapons.  That just makes perfect sense.

Image result for tinfoil hat

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