The Joker

US ranked #1 to best deal with a disease outbreak

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8 minutes ago, mikewof said:

 

What is the difference between "observed case fatality ratio" and "infection fatality/death ratio"?

 

I don't know, are the people still dead?

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3 minutes ago, roundthebuoys said:

Huh, I wonder if anything on that chart has changed since MARCH 16th?

Great.  You had to engage with him.  Now, he's gonna go "full Cliffy" and write up a long missive, intended to cause your eyes to glaze over and give up.

I prefer to just scroll by his multitude of posts, when he pops back in and goes on one of his posting frenzies.

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Just now, Bus Driver said:

Great.  You had to engage with him.  Now, he's gonna go "full Cliffy" and write up a long missive, intended to cause your eyes to glaze over and give up.

I prefer to just scroll by his multitude of posts, when he pops back in and goes on one of his posting frenzies.

I know, I know. Mea Culpa.

I'm thinking carnitas for dinner tonight.

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23 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Emotion is not science.

Children as young as 6 years old have contracted shingles. Regardless, close to 100% of all shingles infections and deaths in the elderly or immune deficient.

Regardless your plea, this is the reality ...

874494853_ScreenShot2020-12-21at10_48_31AM.png.b62a4e507747900c2f4e5783407f9957.png

Now, given your newfound concern for dying children, here is something for you to actually focus ...

Regular old pneumonia kills some 1.4 million children every year, before COVID, during COVID, after COVID. But you haven't written a word about that, because those kind of children who die of pneumonia, diarrhea, cholera and malaria, are apparently not the kind of children to enter your worldview.

Or to put in terms that you connect a little better, a child is about 8,000 times more likely to die from the common diseases for which you haven't shown any concern than from COVID-19.

So why don't these other diseases get attention by people like you? Because those other killers, like cholera, malaria, malnutrition and others don't tend to kill wealthy Baby Boomers in industrialized countries.

 

Wow, what a POS you've become. Data from the early days of the pandemic? Can you say "bullshit?"

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1 minute ago, Raz'r said:

Wow, what a POS you've become. Data from the early days of the pandemic? Can you say "bullshit?"

I don't know, I mean SOMEONE knew everything about it on February 12th, right?

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8 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

Wow, what a POS you've become. Data from the early days of the pandemic? Can you say "bullshit?"

So say "bullshit" all you like, you're arguing against reality ...

This is from the CDC's report in October, but it's not a pretty graph, and I'm not sure if you read, https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm

The total number of excess deaths (deaths above average levels) from January 26 through October 3 ranged from a low of approximately 841 in the youngest age group (<25 years) to a high of 94,646 among adults aged 75–84 years.

But fine, you're going to create whatever reality you like, ultimately. Argue away ... apparently you're now taking the position that young people are in greater danger of COVID than older people. It's all just internet nonsense with you, there is little actual connection to reality, it seems.

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19 minutes ago, Bus Driver said:

Great.  You had to engage with him.  Now, he's gonna go "full Cliffy" and write up a long missive, intended to cause your eyes to glaze over and give up.

I prefer to just scroll by his multitude of posts, when he pops back in and goes on one of his posting frenzies.

You had suggested that you would attempt to try intellect. That didn't last long, your promise had the staying power of Donald Trump, or Neville Chamberlain.

 

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7 minutes ago, mikewof said:

So say "bullshit" all you like, you're arguing against reality ...

This is from the CDC's report in October, but it's not a pretty graph, and I'm not sure if you read, https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm

The total number of excess deaths (deaths above average levels) from January 26 through October 3 ranged from a low of approximately 841 in the youngest age group (<25 years) to a high of 94,646 among adults aged 75–84 years.

But fine, you're going to create whatever reality you like, ultimately. Argue away ... apparently you're now taking the position that young people are in greater danger of COVID than older people. It's all just internet nonsense with you, there is little actual connection to reality, it seems.

Fucking bullshit. I've never stated what you say my position is. What a dick.

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7 minutes ago, mikewof said:

You had suggested that you would attempt to try intellect. That didn't last long, your promise had the staying power of Donald Trump, or Neville Chamberlain.

 

If you'll note, I have avoided commenting on the slew of posts you make when you pop back in.  I find you to be tedious in your quest top prove you know more than anyone about whatever topic is being discussed.

I chided rtb for falling prey to you.  If that bothers you, well - Try to imagine how little I care.

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45 minutes ago, mikewof said:

This post is courtesy of someone with precisely zero training in actual science.

I noticed your deleted your shit calling him an "ambulance chaser."   Afraid your bullshit would have real consequences?    

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Talk about progress, bullshitters! From bullshitter to believer in one little shot! It should be called the Trump Vaccine, because it’s just a little prick. 

22D7D80D-8690-41FD-9E15-39D8AA6C8864.jpeg

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18 minutes ago, BrickTopHarry said:

 

I am having a hard time dredging up the bare minimum in sympathy for people who continue to tempt the fates.

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3 hours ago, mikewof said:

Cripes, Okay, I'll try to walk you through this ...

What is the difference between "observed case fatality ratio" and "infection fatality/death ratio"?

Just because I proved you wrong here, doesn't thus make the measurement with which you disagree a "guess."

So how many Americans have caught the virus?

How many have died from the virus?

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6 hours ago, Ease the sheet. said:

So how many Americans have caught the virus?

How many have died from the virus?

Lots of Americans have caught it, lots of Americans have died while having it. A smaller number have died because of it. But that's what infections do, they kill mammals. Infections have been killing mammals for at least 1.7 million years.

We should endeavor to put our money and energy to the low-hanging fruit of saving lives from infections. We have spent literally trillions on COVID, which predominately impacts the elderly. And while all this happens, we continue to largely ignore the sevel million or so lives of young people who die of easy-to-treat infections.

Does that seem like an admirable way of conducting public policy? Spend trillions to fruitlessly save the lives of wealthy old people, while we let impoverished young people die like houseflies at a window? I don't expect you to actually answer that question, but that's the core of your outrage, that wealthy old people die at all.

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10 hours ago, Clove Hitch said:

I noticed your deleted your shit calling him an "ambulance chaser."   Afraid your bullshit would have real consequences?    

I kind of like Sol, but given the way he plays fast and loose with the truth, it seemed fitting.

I genuinely don't want to hurt his feelings, regardless that his politics have no care or recourse to those in poverty.

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10 hours ago, Bus Driver said:

If you'll note, I have avoided commenting on the slew of posts you make when you pop back in.  I find you to be tedious in your quest top prove you know more than anyone about whatever topic is being discussed.

I chided rtb for falling prey to you.  If that bothers you, well - Try to imagine how little I care.

Apologies, but I still don't remember much about you other than your bathroom remodel.

You did a good job on that bathroom, btw.

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10 hours ago, Raz'r said:

Fucking bullshit. I've never stated what you say my position is. What a dick.

When you don't claim a stake to the things that are important, you can't blame people for assuming that your stake is claimed on saving your own hide.

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10 hours ago, roundthebuoys said:

I don't know, are the people still dead?

It's a ratio.

If you are interested, we can discuss it, or you can look it up for yourself. But neither Raz'r nor Ease seem to know the difference.

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12 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Lots of Americans have caught it, lots of Americans have died while having it. A smaller number have died because of it. But that's what infections do, they kill mammals. Infections have been killing mammals for at least 1.7 million years.

We should endeavor to put our money and energy to the low-hanging fruit of saving lives from infections. We have spent literally trillions on COVID, which predominately impacts the elderly. And while all this happens, we continue to largely ignore the sevel million or so lives of young people who die of easy-to-treat infections.

Does that seem like an admirable way of conducting public policy? Spend trillions to fruitlessly save the lives of wealthy old people, while we let impoverished young people die like houseflies at a window? I don't expect you to actually answer that question, but that's the core of your outrage, that wealthy old people die at all.

So you don't have an actual number?

And you wonder why you are not taken seriously. You're a fucking joke.

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6 minutes ago, Ease the sheet. said:

So you don't have an actual number?

And you wonder why you are not taken seriously. You're a fucking joke.

I cite peer review studies with things you disagree, and you ignore it, because the truth is inconvenient for you.

And you wonder why I have no respect for you ... you do not seek truth. You instead seek comfort.

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41 minutes ago, mikewof said:

When you don't claim a stake to the things that are important, you can't blame people for assuming that your stake is claimed on saving your own hide.

ah yes, the moral superiority of the great woofsey. Someone who thinks that fighting a pandemic precludes doing anything else. What a putz. Just a sad, pathetic whiny biotch.

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8 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

ah yes, the moral superiority of the great woofsey. Someone who thinks that fighting a pandemic precludes doing anything else. What a putz. Just a sad, pathetic whiny biotch.

Everything has a cost.

We've spent about five trillion dollars on this pandemic with no discernible benefit. And we've spent even less than our normal pittance this year on the millions of children who die from malnutrition, pneumonia, diarrhea, air pollution, cholera, and malaria.

But they're not wealthy old people, so we plow ahead with our efforts to grant everlasting life to those who control the purse strings.

If pointing out the ill-posed benefits of decisions like that strikes you as "moral superiority" then you are neither moral nor superior.

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40 minutes ago, mikewof said:

I cite peer review studies with things you disagree, and you ignore it, because the truth is inconvenient for you.

And you wonder why I have no respect for you ... you do not seek truth. You instead seek comfort.

You cite peer review studies that derive a range of numbers to determine the number of people probably infected and the number of probable deaths.

I cite numbers of actual cases and numbers of actual deaths.

 

I suppose you thinks it's probably gravity that stops you from flying away.

 

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40 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Everything has a cost.

We've spent about five trillion dollars on this pandemic with no discernible benefit. And we've spent even less than our normal pittance this year on the millions of children who die from malnutrition, pneumonia, diarrhea, air pollution, cholera, and malaria.

But they're not wealthy old people, so we plow ahead with our efforts to grant everlasting life to those who control the purse strings.

If pointing out the ill-posed benefits of decisions like that strikes you as "moral superiority" then you are neither moral nor superior.

I’ve never claimed moral superiority.

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I just wanna state, for the record, that I don't disagree with anything Mike's posted about Covid in the last 2 pages. 

Not to say he hasn't posted some bullshit in the past, but he's making rational points right now.

I do really think y'all have him all wrong.  It's not that he doesn't care about covid.  It's that he also cares about the normal, "baseline" avoidable deaths that America accepts as just... how the world is.

 

On 12/20/2020 at 11:21 PM, 3to1 said:

homo sapiens, AS A SPECIES (and also far too many simple spawns of bitches, individually). it's past time for a rethink how we exist on this planet. 

don't say I never gave you nuthin'

"Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell".

Ed Abbey

...who, IMHO, was commenting on Capitalism, more than Humanity (it's really just the last 0.001% of our time here that we've been a problem). 

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47 minutes ago, mikewof said:

Everything has a cost.

We've spent about five trillion dollars on this pandemic with no discernible benefit. And we've spent even less than our normal pittance this year on the millions of children who die from malnutrition, pneumonia, diarrhea, air pollution, cholera, and malaria.

But they're not wealthy old people, so we plow ahead with our efforts to grant everlasting life to those who control the purse strings.

If pointing out the ill-posed benefits of decisions like that strikes you as "moral superiority" then you are neither moral nor superior.

You've injected 5 trillion into an economy of 22 trillion with no discernible benefit?

 

How are hospital wards in parking lots not a discernible benefit?

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2 minutes ago, frenchie said:

I just wanna state, for the record, that I don't disagree with anything Mike's posted about Covid in the last 2 pages. 

Not to say he hasn't posted some bullshit in the past, but he's making rational points right now.

I do really think y'all have him all wrong.  It's not that he doesn't care about covid.  It's that he also cares about the normal, "baseline" avoidable deaths that America accepts as just... how the world is.

 

 

Tell it to those suffering from more traditional diseases and are now dying because they can't get a bed at the local hospital.

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1 hour ago, frenchie said:

I just wanna state, for the record, that I don't disagree with anything Mike's posted about Covid in the last 2 pages. 

Not to say he hasn't posted some bullshit in the past, but he's making rational points right now.

I do really think y'all have him all wrong.  It's not that he doesn't care about covid.  It's that he also cares about the normal, "baseline" avoidable deaths that America accepts as just... how the world is.

 

"Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell".

Ed Abbey

...who, IMHO, was commenting on Capitalism, more than Humanity (it's really just the last 0.001% of our time here that we've been a problem). 

agreed, Mike has a few rather obvious and irrefutable points here. credit where it's due.

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2 hours ago, mikewof said:

Lots of Americans have caught it, lots of Americans have died while having it. A smaller number have died because of it. But that's what infections do, they kill mammals. Infections have been killing mammals for at least 1.7 million years.

We should endeavor to put our money and energy to the low-hanging fruit of saving lives from infections. We have spent literally trillions on COVID, which predominately impacts the elderly. And while all this happens, we continue to largely ignore the sevel million or so lives of young people who die of easy-to-treat infections.

Does that seem like an admirable way of conducting public policy? Spend trillions to fruitlessly save the lives of wealthy old people, while we let impoverished young people die like houseflies at a window? I don't expect you to actually answer that question, but that's the core of your outrage, that wealthy old people die at all.

Can't we do both? Right, not with Trump in office. 

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This is sad and appalling.

The depths of Trumps  emotional brutality cannot be measured.

After spending 10 months treating America's sickest COVID-19 patients, he still finds the energy to smile. Although physically exhausted and emotionally depleted, Dr Jacob Keeperman somehow still has a spring in his step.

But it's not hard to see he's tired. It's difficult to hide the toll of an unrelenting tsunami of critically ill patients, with no end in sight.

Dr Keeperman hasn't had much time to rest since the coronavirus pandemic took hold of America in February.

He has spent the year travelling the country, trying to save critical patients in Missouri, Texas and now in one of the latest hotspots, Reno, Nevada.

Nestled within the Sierra-Nevada mountain range, Reno is known for its spectacular vista. Now it's also home to a massive COVID-19 outbreak swamping its hospitals and forcing health workers to set up wards in car parks.

LIVE UPDATES: Read our blog for the latest news on the COVID-19 pandemic.

The risk of infection in Nevada is currently among the highest in the US, with nearly 18,000 cases in the past week alone, according to Johns Hopkins University.

It's rare to get access to a treatment ward, but Dr Keeperman is so tired of convincing people the virus is real, he's making the time to show the ABC the reality of America's outbreak.

Inside the coronavirus wards

He took us inside his intensive care unit (ICU) at Renown Regional Medical Center to witness what doctors and nurses have been going through for months, trying to save lives from a virus that knows no bounds.

'I don't expect this patient to leave the hospital'

First we're taken to one of his youngest patients, a man in his 40s.

His state of consciousness and his medications are written on the glass door to his room.

For the past few weeks, he's been attached to a ventilator. Before the disease took a full grip on his body, he had no underlying health conditions.

As Dr Keeperman prepares to enter his room, he pauses, closes his eyes, takes a deep breath and tells me he doesn't expect him to survive.

"He is in his 40s. It's hard when they're your age — I'm 43," he says.

A man on a hospital bed hooked up to a ventilator

"He's been critically ill on the ventilator, developing multisystem organ failure. Despite our best efforts, he's not got better."

Dr Keeperman keeps in regular contact with the patient's family.

"A few days ago, I brought some family members in, because unfortunately I don't expect this patient to leave the hospital," he said.

Like most coronavirus patients this critically ill, he is chemically paralysed and sedated to make sure he doesn't fight against the ventilator.

Through the glass door, we watch Dr Keeperman undertake a routine check up.

Even though his patient is not conscious, he still talks him through what he's doing.

The daily fight to keep a COVID-19 patient breathing

For most on the frontline, it's a daily struggle making sure their patients have enough oxygen to breathe.

Doctors and nurses usually turn their patients twice a day, because placing them on their stomach for about 16 hours helps increase the amount of oxygen that gets to their lungs.

Dr Keeperman's worst moment involved a Trump tweet

Only about a quarter of those who enter this ward return home.

"[In one day] I had four patients and I held their hands for their last breath," Dr Keeperman said.

 
Dr Jacob Keeperman says he was devastated when President Trump cast doubt on the existence of the car park COVID-19 ward.(ABC News: Niall Lenihan)

"I had four families that I called and told them their loved one was never coming home. I was devastated, I didn't have an emotion left, I was numb."

But a moment even worse came for Dr Keeperman when President Donald Trump suggested in a tweet that what he and his colleagues were doing was fake.

On November 30, Dr Keeperman posted a selfie on Twitter from the Renown Regional Medical Center's makeshift ward in the hospital's car park.

He simply wanted to thank his co-workers and encourage them to stay strong after five COVID-19 deaths in 32 hours.

 
 
-gyViRyd_bigger.jpg
 
 
As my 1st clinical week in the COVID ICU at Renown I want to thank all the incredible staff who are Fighting the Good Fight to help all those suffering from COVID-19. With 5 deaths in the last 32 hours, everyone is struggling to keep their head-up. Stay strong.
 

Two days later, Mr Trump retweeted a now-blocked post claiming the car park ward was a "scam".

"Fake election results in Nevada, also!" he claimed — without evidence — of Joe Biden's victory in the state.

 

It was a crushing blow for the doctor.

"More than anything, I'm disappointed in our elected leaders. I'm disappointed by how this has been turned into an us versus them, a politically polarising issue, when this is a humanitarian issue," he says.

"This is about people and people matter. My very worst moment was when the President of the United States decided to make a mockery of that, decided to call it fake.

"Because this is real. This affects all walks of life, all political parties and it kills. This kills people."

The need is so great that the hospital carpark is a ward

The hospital takes patients from Nevada, Northern California and Utah, an area the size of Victoria.

Aside from turning its cardiac ICU into a COVID-19 ward, it's also had to start putting adult patients infected with the coronavirus in its paediatric unit and keep two people in each room.

Now its underground carpark is also housing the sick.

 
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1 hour ago, Ease the sheet. said:

Tell it to those suffering from more traditional diseases and are now dying because they can't get a bed at the local hospital.

Whoosh...

He's saying: tell it to the ones who were dying, already, regardless, where there is no local hospital... or clean water... or food.

I kinda relate to what he's getting at.  I had a moment, a few weeks after 9/11, where I was standing on the west side highway, watching a mangled fire engine go by on a flatbed... smell of rotting flesh in the background... and thinking back to 1991's Shock&Awe footage... thinking: "so this is what it looks like from the other end".

My point is, I don't think Mike's problem is he doesn't care enough, it's that he cares too much; he's afflicted with what Kurt Vonnegut called "Hunter S. Thompson's Disease".

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If only we could allocate all our resources where they were most needed.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if every country halved, (or in the case of the USA, quartered) it's defence budget and tripled it's contribution to the WHO.?

Then, those countries with children that are dying from preventable diseases now could somehow educate them all, rise up and one day challenge and overtake the economies of the west.

Wouldn't that be wonderful? 

Of course, they would quite likely show little "gratitude" or economic and military mercy and bite the hand that fed. (and some of their customs and beliefs and "freedoms" are a little barbaric and outdated)

All good as far as I'm concerned. They owe us nothing.

 

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

If only we could allocate all our resources where they were most needed.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if every country halved, (or in the case of the USA, quartered) it's defence budget and tripled it's contribution to the WHO.?

[other lefty dreaming deleted for brevity...]

Whatever would the wise white nations do if another brown skinned oil rich nation gets uppity? Huh, what?

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1 hour ago, frenchie said:

Whoosh...

He's saying: tell it to the ones who were dying, already, regardless, where there is no local hospital... or clean water... or food.

I kinda relate to what he's getting at.  I had a moment, a few weeks after 9/11, where I was standing on the west side highway, watching a mangled fire engine go by on a flatbed... smell of rotting flesh in the background... and thinking back to 1991's Shock&Awe footage... thinking: "so this is what it looks like from the other end".

My point is, I don't think Mike's problem is he doesn't care enough, it's that he cares too much; he's afflicted with what Kurt Vonnegut called "Hunter S. Thompson's Disease".

No whoosh.

 

We have a health system manned by individuals who are well versed in treating well understood illnesses. Now we have a virus which is turning that on its head.

To say the virus is not that important, when it's now killing more people per month than any other disease in America is just plain bullshit. To say that the virus is not that important when it's effect is now impinging on the treatment of the diseases Mikey holds so dear is bullshit.

To say that the virus is killing people who would have died anyway from diseases Mikey holds dear is bullshit.

 

And don't get me started on what the health workers are currently going through. Mikey's bullshit puts them in danger, from catching this disease to the emotional distress and it's long term effects to mental health. And these are the people we turn to to help us!

 

The only thing Mikey cares about is Mikey wallet and his kids future. His wallet is empty and his kids aren't coughing. If things were different, maybe, just maybe, he might have a clue.

 

 

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On 3/9/2020 at 3:53 PM, mikewof said:

Lessee ...

5 week COVID-19 pneumonia death score in USA = about 20

5 week pneumonia death score in USA = about 8,000.

Looks like pneumonia is about 400 times worse. So do tell, which one is the "bigger problem" to all those families who don't want to lose a loved-one?

 

On 3/9/2020 at 5:23 PM, phillysailor said:

The usual pneumonia to which you are referring are caused by known pathogens and insults.

The COVID-19 is a "pandemic", and so can show exponential growth. It is a novel pathogen for which we have no cure and can only offer supportive therapies. Most deaths are from the initial pathogen, secondary infections have been few, probably because the virus kills so quickly. A week of malaise and aches, then shortness of breath leading to hospitalization in 7-10 days, death in two weeks or so. Patients can apparently transmit the virus after just two days of illness. 

The elderly and those with immunocompromised status and comorbidities could quickly consume our immediately available resources, so that when young folks start showing up we may not have ICU rooms and vents available, and might have to make "who is actually going to survive this disease and have a functional life and therefore deserves the ventilator more" decisions.

Current causes of pneumonia which you describe as "400 times worse" is static in terms of growth. 

The COVID-19 is deadly out of the gate and is accelerating its spread at a geometric pace. A few doublings and it will rival your bogeyman and a few more would leave it in the dust. If the case fatality rate is 1.4%, as soon as you have a death in an area, you can assume that 10-16 days ago you had 140 cases. They will have been infecting people since then, average is 2 infections per case. after a few days, you've got 280 cases, soon after that over 500, then 1000, then 2K, 4K, 10K, 20K... In a few weeks there can easily be 100,000 cases if quarantine measures fail to stop the spread. Then it tapers off over the summer before going nuts in the fall.

Doubling the number of infected persons every few days is scary math.

Tens of millions could end up being infected by the elections. Start multiplying that by 10-20% needing hospitalization, 5-10% intubation and ventilation, 1-2% death which could start climbing as healthcare workers fail to show up for work without hazard pay, better gear and guaranteed death benefits.

What part of this is difficult to comprehend? I think it must be the power of exponential growth. But that's what viruses do.

 

On 3/9/2020 at 6:38 PM, mikewof said:

I don't disagree with much of what you wrote up there, but some of what you wrote is measurable, and some of it has not been measured and can't be measured yet.

What you wrote in bold up there.

1. How do you know that?

2. If "regular" pneumonia is "static" then you have essentially staked your claim that total pneumonia cases (i.e. "regular" plus COVID-19 pneumonia) will thus significantly exceed the average "static" numbers right? Has that happened yet? Do you have any data to show that this had happened?

We are fairly confident, based on existing data, that COVID-19 makes some people very ill, occasionally enough to die. Does this "rapid onset" you describe set COVID-19 apart from regular community pneumonia? Maybe, but we know that the "rapid collapse" type of pneumonia that you describe actually happens to some 3,000 "regular" pneumonia patients every year in the USA, and these 3,000 are dead in less than 30 days,  https://www.uptodate.com/contents/pneumonia-in-adults-beyond-the-basics.

So, what data do you have of the less-than-20 U.S. deaths were with people who didn't already have compromised lung function and then died in the rapid timeframe you describe?

I have zero problem with the infection rates, those are actually measured and reliable. But it would be a mistake to assume that infection rate is correlated to a specific death rate without the measurement, and we don't have that measurement.

Now, above, you have predicted that we will see some ADDITIONAL 400,000 deaths from COVID-19 pneumonia (20 million infected times 2% death rate.)

So we have our "static" pneumonia deaths at about 4,000 per month, and then this coming 400,000 annual deaths, which is a 8x more, right? So based on the exponential increase, when would you expect that COVID-19 pneumonia would match our current 4,000/month from regular pneumonia, and when will it reach 2x if we're going to hit the 8x that you predict in time for the election?

I did an graph estimate using an exponential, for 8x our current average of 4,000 deaths per month. (So 8 more months.) If what you're saying has merit, then we should already be looking at 1,000 total COVID-19 pneumonia deaths.

But in fact, we're still at less than 20. So what happened? We know that this virus is virulent, but when the measured data doesn't match the prediction, what needs to be revised? The data or the prediction? For all we know, 2020 may end with roughly the same number of pneumonia deaths as any average year, about 50,000. And if that happens, then we will thus suspect that the COVID-19 didn't change the "static" rate at all, and other than some varying symptoms, it is no more likely to lead to lung collapse than any other coronavirus.

interesting little conversation from page 5 of this thread.

 

philly right on the money.

mikey, a dickhead.

 

 

the early pages of this thread make for some interesting reading.

 

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6 hours ago, frenchie said:

I just wanna state, for the record, that I don't disagree with anything Mike's posted about Covid in the last 2 pages. 

Not to say he hasn't posted some bullshit in the past, but he's making rational points right now.

I do really think y'all have him all wrong.  It's not that he doesn't care about covid.  It's that he also cares about the normal, "baseline" avoidable deaths that America accepts as just... how the world is.

...   ...

Mikey has tied some gross mis-statements to his non-bullshit quoting, that's a bit different.

Also, it's just moral pretentiousness to blow so much gas about how much MORE one cares about this horrible thing or that other horrible thing. One of my best sailing buddies is a multi-doc parasitologist, a malaria researcher. I've helped them do public speaking programs and made donations to groups he's suggested for years.

- DSK

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2 hours ago, Ease the sheet. said:

 

 

interesting little conversation from page 5 of this thread.

 

philly right on the money.

mikey, a dickhead.

 

 

the early pages of this thread make for some interesting reading.

 

I'm not saying he hasn't veered into indefensible bullshit on other pages of this & other threads. 

You'll find me debunking him, when that happens.

I'm saying I disagree with the ascribed motive. 

For what it's worth.

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7 hours ago, pusslicker said:

Can't we do both? Right, not with Trump in office. 

Exactly. The mindset that Covid precludes other efforts is just limited thinking. 
 Mikey playing games with numbers? That’s just tiresome. 

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7 hours ago, frenchie said:

Whoosh...

He's saying: tell it to the ones who were dying, already, regardless, where there is no local hospital... or clean water... or food.

I kinda relate to what he's getting at.  I had a moment, a few weeks after 9/11, where I was standing on the west side highway, watching a mangled fire engine go by on a flatbed... smell of rotting flesh in the background... and thinking back to 1991's Shock&Awe footage... thinking: "so this is what it looks like from the other end".

My point is, I don't think Mike's problem is he doesn't care enough, it's that he cares too much; he's afflicted with what Kurt Vonnegut called "Hunter S. Thompson's Disease".

Maybe, but that’s not how he comes across. He comes across as a leftist preacher, yelling at us for our sins of misplaced priorities “dead grannies don’t matter” seems to be his main point.

 

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10 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

Maybe, but that’s not how he comes across. He comes across as a leftist preacher, yelling at us for our sins of misplaced priorities “dead grannies don’t matter” seems to be his main point.

 

If I could interact here while doing 35mph in the left lane of I-95 in South Florida behind an old blue-hair with her turn signal on, I might be more sympathetic to the DGDM argument...but I can't, so I'm not. 

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20 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

Maybe, but that’s not how he comes across. He comes across as a leftist preacher, yelling at us for our sins of misplaced priorities “dead grannies don’t matter” seems to be his main point.

 

His anti-mask bullshit.  His constant attempts to downplay the severity of the illness and its impact on our health care system. 

There is a horror show going on in hospitals and people like him get a chunk of the blame. 

So fuck him. He deserves unmitigated doom and failure. 

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3 hours ago, Ease the sheet. said:

 

 

interesting little conversation from page 5 of this thread.

 

philly right on the money.

mikey, a dickhead.

 

 

the early pages of this thread make for some interesting reading.

 

Translation into English ... Ease the Sheet replaces discussion with insults. He sees them as compatible.

However the high quality of his life and his health in fact depend on the scientific rigor that he disdains. And he's not willing to share the fruits of that rigor with those who can't afford it.

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11 minutes ago, Clove Hitch said:

His anti-mask bullshit.  His constant attempts to downplay the severity of the illness and its impact on our health care system. 

There is a horror show going on in hospitals and people like him get a chunk of the blame. 

So fuck him. He deserves unmitigated doom and failure. 

You make things up and then proclaim them as truth.

My concern about strep self-infection from masks is what you call "anti-mask bullshit."

You would rather politicize science than consider it. And that makes you dangerous.

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40 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

Maybe, but that’s not how he comes across. He comes across as a leftist preacher, yelling at us for our sins of misplaced priorities “dead grannies don’t matter” seems to be his main point.

 

Yup, I'm a "leftist preacher" because I've devoted my life to these problems. And you would rather spend $5,000,000,000,000 to potentially add a year to that wealthy granny's life than spend $100 to save the life of a baby in Haiti.

This leftist preacher declares a special place in leftist hell for self-involved sinners like you.

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1 hour ago, frenchie said:

I'm not saying he hasn't veered into indefensible bullshit on other pages of this & other threads. 

You'll find me debunking him, when that happens.

I'm saying I disagree with the ascribed motive. 

For what it's worth.

"Debunking" is not the same thing as discussion. 

I've noticed the silence on the many issues that I've crowed about from Day One here ... intubation that kills people, co-infections, air pollution, vaping.

And by ignoring those things, we don't find a solution, and children will still die by the millions, as they have before COVID, as they will after COVID.

I get that the usual suspects here can't be bothered to digest those inconvenient issues. But when we align ourselves with them, we embolden them.

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3 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

Mikey has tied some gross mis-statements to his non-bullshit quoting, that's a bit different.

Also, it's just moral pretentiousness to blow so much gas about how much MORE one cares about this horrible thing or that other horrible thing. One of my best sailing buddies is a multi-doc parasitologist, a malaria researcher. I've helped them do public speaking programs and made donations to groups he's suggested for years.

- DSK

The reality is that we're spending millions-to-one on COVID versus the millions of deaths to children from the diseases that they keep dying.

You kick the tin and deduct it from your taxes? That's better than nothing. It's odd then, your preoccupation with the diseases that's relatively harmless to children, while you actively fight against refocusing that effort to those millions of dead children.

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42 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

If I could interact here while doing 35mph in the left lane of I-95 in South Florida behind an old blue-hair with her turn signal on, I might be more sympathetic to the DGDM argument...but I can't, so I'm not. 

which-states-have-cell-phone-texting-whi

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1 minute ago, roundthebuoys said:

Woofy, we are all very sorry your work has been sidelined to this little nuisance.  Have a cup of tea.

It hasn't.

I'm the lead aerosol investigator on a COVID  project.

That doesn't change my priorities though. The numbers are still the numbers, regardless the politics.

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7 hours ago, Ease the sheet. said:

No whoosh.

 

We have a health system manned by individuals who are well versed in treating well understood illnesses. Now we have a virus which is turning that on its head.

To say the virus is not that important, when it's now killing more people per month than any other disease in America is just plain bullshit. To say that the virus is not that important when it's effect is now impinging on the treatment of the diseases Mikey holds so dear is bullshit.

To say that the virus is killing people who would have died anyway from diseases Mikey holds dear is bullshit.

 

And don't get me started on what the health workers are currently going through. Mikey's bullshit puts them in danger, from catching this disease to the emotional distress and it's long term effects to mental health. And these are the people we turn to to help us!

 

The only thing Mikey cares about is Mikey wallet and his kids future. His wallet is empty and his kids aren't coughing. If things were different, maybe, just maybe, he might have a clue.

 

 

Your desire to convert these lies into thruths will succeed only with those who see little difference between the two.

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8 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

If only we could allocate all our resources where they were most needed.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if every country halved, (or in the case of the USA, quartered) it's defence budget and tripled it's contribution to the WHO.?

Then, those countries with children that are dying from preventable diseases now could somehow educate them all, rise up and one day challenge and overtake the economies of the west.

Wouldn't that be wonderful? 

Of course, they would quite likely show little "gratitude" or economic and military mercy and bite the hand that fed. (and some of their customs and beliefs and "freedoms" are a little barbaric and outdated)

All good as far as I'm concerned. They owe us nothing.

Governments are owned by people.

Why would governments care about things for which we can't be bothered?

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Where are the goal posts now? That we should be less focused on our own nation? Because most of the causes of deaths I am seeing posted as more important than Covid are things that are not major killers in the US.

While I am sympathetic to a more global view in approaching problems, including pandemics and global warming, that is not where we are right now. In the meantime, Covid does affect the economic drivers which can reduce global productivity and therefor reduce the ability to help in those other areas specifically because it affects wealthier developed nations while things like Cholera and pollution do not or at least do not affect them to the degree that Covid does. 

Mikey's schtick is tiresome because he is not honest in any of his arguments. It is all bullshit to make himself feel important and to shame everyone else.  

And again, not that it really needs to be said, but this kills a lot more than just very old and infirm people. My wife just lost a family member to Covid.  He was in his fifties and was otherwise healthy. The only person in her family lost to pollution lived in Venezuela, which aligns with what I am saying above.   

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8 hours ago, frenchie said:

Whoosh...

He's saying: tell it to the ones who were dying, already, regardless, where there is no local hospital... or clean water... or food.

I kinda relate to what he's getting at.  I had a moment, a few weeks after 9/11, where I was standing on the west side highway, watching a mangled fire engine go by on a flatbed... smell of rotting flesh in the background... and thinking back to 1991's Shock&Awe footage... thinking: "so this is what it looks like from the other end".

My point is, I don't think Mike's problem is he doesn't care enough, it's that he cares too much; he's afflicted with what Kurt Vonnegut called "Hunter S. Thompson's Disease".

I quit journalism and printing to push a 900 lb. Kelvinator of Applied Physics through my birth-hole.

There is no fame or money in this path, unlike the paths of Vonnegut and Thompson. 

Yes, a novel coronavirus has me puzzled, it has a lot of people puzzled. But it keeps decomposing into its constituent parts; poor healthcare, old age, coinfections, air pollution, perhaps eventually self-infection, as I keep harping from the beginning here.

But these constituents are not the religion, they are scientific, and thus to the faithful, they are the anti-COVID.

Your comparison to 9/11 is apt ... suddenly we have a taste. But like 9/11, that doesn't make us see things from the other side, but instead dig in our heels and put on the blinders.

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4 minutes ago, LenP said:

Where are the goal posts now? That we should be less focused on our own nation? Because most of the causes of deaths I am seeing posted as more important than Covid are things that are not major killers in the US.

While I am sympathetic to a more global view in approaching problems, including pandemics and global warming, that is not where we are right now. In the meantime, Covid does affect the economic drivers which can reduce global productivity and therefor reduce the ability to help in those other areas specifically because it affects wealthier developed nations while things like Cholera and pollution do not or at least do not affect them to the degree that Covid does. 

Mikey's schtick is tiresome because he is not honest in any of his arguments. It is all bullshit to make himself feel important and to shame everyone else.  

And again, not that it really needs to be said, but this kills a lot more than just very old and infirm people. My wife just lost a family member to Covid.  He was in his fifties and was otherwise healthy. The only person in her family lost to pollution lived in Venezuela, which aligns with what I am saying above.   

That you see attempts at discussion as a "tiresome schtick" suggest that you still are more interested in the schtick than the discussion.

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10 hours ago, Ease the sheet. said:

Tell it to those suffering from more traditional diseases and are now dying because they can't get a bed at the local hospital.

So when the magical vaccine comes to us all, and everything is back to normal, and then we're right back to people dying because they can't get effective healthcare, I assume the problem is solved since that's normal?

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lots of Americans have died while from having it.

Fixed it for you.   Another close friend parent died from COVID last night.   I'll tell her you said he was already going to die, right ASSHOLE ?    

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10 hours ago, Ease the sheet. said:

You've injected 5 trillion into an economy of 22 trillion with no discernible benefit?

 

How are hospital wards in parking lots not a discernible benefit?

That there are hospital wards in parking lots should have you question the discernable benefits of that $5 trillion.

But it doesn't.

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then we're right back to people dying because they can't get effective healthcare, I assume the problem is solved since that's normal?”

Hey Mikey finally got something right!

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Just now, solosailor said:

Fixed it for you.   Another close friend parent died from COVID last night.   I'll tell her you said he was already going to die, right ASSHOLE ?    

Sorry for your loss, I didn't do that to your friend's parent though.

And yes, we're all going to die. Some because we have COVID, some while having COVID, some a good bit after COVID.

Our anger shouldn't be at parents dying. Parents alwaysc die, that's life. A friend of mine died last week. Our anger should be with children dying. But oddly, that didn't bother us much last year.

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Just now, mikewof said:

So when the magical vaccine comes to us all, and everything is back to normal, and then we're right back to people dying because they can't get effective healthcare, I assume the problem is solved since that's normal?

No Mikie.

First we have to get through the resultant hunger pandemic. This will kill millions, many more than the virus itself.

Then the US has to deal with a small but significant % of the population who have severe ongoing issues.

Then there will be a reevaluation of international relationships. No Country that has reacted to covid properly will subjugate themselves to stupidity of other countries because the costs are too high.

Lots of other developments I'm sure.

And the US will be the primary 1st world cause of all of this upheaval for years to come, because the US cannot see the wood for the trees. And as for other countries taking public health advice from the US in the future?   pffft. THAT is going to hurt your causes more than anything.

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4 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

then we're right back to people dying because they can't get effective healthcare, I assume the problem is solved since that's normal?”

Hey Mikey finally got something right!

Are you here to diagnose me with Borderline Personality Disorder? Or perhaps co-ocurring addictions disorder?

Or maybe your extensive medical training has decided on a diagnosis for me of advanced alcoholism and cancer of the Dead Nut Money?

It's terrific that you are able to provide these diagnostic services over ASCII.

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5 minutes ago, mikewof said:

 

Our anger shouldn't be at parents dying. Parents alwaysc die, that's life. A friend of mine died last week. Our anger should be with children dying

It’s a lot easier to make new kids than it is to make new productive adults Mikey. You “should” know that.  

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2 minutes ago, dfw_sailor said:

No Mikie.

First we have to get through the resultant hunger pandemic. This will kill millions, many more than the virus itself.

Then the US has to deal with a small but significant % of the population who have severe ongoing issues.

Then there will be a reevaluation of international relationships. No Country that has reacted to covid properly will subjugate themselves to stupidity of other countries because the costs are too high.

Lots of other developments I'm sure.

And the US will be the primary 1st world cause of all of this upheaval for years to come, because the US cannot see the wood for the trees. And as for other countries taking public health advice from the US in the future?   pffft. THAT is going to hurt your causes more than anything.

The "hunger pandemic" killed over 3 million children last year, before "COVID" was a word. How do you predict this to move that needle? We weren't helping them then, we aren't helping them now.

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1 minute ago, mikewof said:

The "hunger pandemic" killed over 3 million children last year, before "COVID" was a word. How do you predict this to move that needle? We weren't helping them then, we aren't helping them now.

We? What are you doing about it? Fuck all judging by the 41000 posts you've posted.

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Just now, mikewof said:

The "hunger pandemic" killed over 3 million children last year, before "COVID" was a word. How do you predict this to move that needle? We weren't helping them then, we aren't helping them now.

You astound me.

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1 minute ago, MR.CLEAN said:

It’s a lot easier to make new kids than it is to make new productive adults Mikey. You “should” know that.  

Adults make children, and then the adults die because that's the nature of life.

Productivity, on the other hand, is often an illusion ... our televisions used to have antennas and our phones had wires. Now our televisions have wires and our phones have antennas.

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Just now, dfw_sailor said:

You astound me.

So you have no interest in guessing an answer? How do you see this hunger pandemic changing?

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How many children can a pair of adults make?

how many adults can a pair of children make?

hmmmm

Adults make children, and then the adults die because that's the nature of life  

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1 minute ago, MR.CLEAN said:

How many children died from hunger in the USA last year Mikey? 

3 million children died from hunger last year.

That you are concerned about the nationalities of these children suggests you should stick with your Juris Doctor psychology diagnoses.

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4 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

How many children can a pair of adults make?

how many adults can a pair of children make?

hmmmm

When parents die before children, it's natural. When children die before parents, it's tragedy, to be avoided at all costs by all rational, emotionally healthy humans.

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52 minutes ago, mikewof said:

It hasn't.

I'm the lead aerosol investigator on a COVID  project.

That doesn't change my priorities though. The numbers are still the numbers, regardless the politics.

Yeah?

Tell us about dispersion of aerosol particles, viral load, and likelihood of contagion.

I bet you can't string 3 coherent sentences together on the topic, although there's a tiny spark of optimist that would be glad to see you show some redeeming character.

- DSK

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9 minutes ago, pusslicker said:

We? What are you doing about it? Fuck all judging by the 41000 posts you've posted.

We'll catch up tomorrow, I just got an email that they returned your package to Josh. If I can find a fax machine, I'll try to fax it to you.

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Just now, Steam Flyer said:

Yeah?

Tell us about dispersion of aerosol particles, viral load, and likelihood of contagion.

I bet you can't string 3 coherent sentences together on the topic, although there's a tiny spark of optimist that would be glad to see you show some redeeming character.

- DSK

I can string together 4 coherent sentences, but the owner of the company requires an NDA to share it with anyone. If you want to read it, be my guest. I'll send you a PM.

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16 minutes ago, mikewof said:

3 million children died from hunger last year.

That you are concerned about the nationalities of these children suggests you should stick with your Juris Doctor psychology diagnoses.

Please, try to understand the difference between acute vs chronic.

We can address both, happens all the time.

I take a little bit of a statin every day as well as keep my BMI under 25

Yet, I still went to the ER for a case of myocarditis. 

Treating the structural issues that cause childhood hunger (damn hard btw as the locals in charge don't want to address it) vs a pandemic response as identical, or at least as exclusionary, is an idiotic false equivalency.

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23 minutes ago, mikewof said:

 

That you are concerned about the nationalities of these children suggests you should stick with your Juris Doctor psychology diagnoses.

America first, baby!

 

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24 minutes ago, mikewof said:

So you have no interest in guessing an answer? How do you see this hunger pandemic changing?

I have finally got to the point (took me long enough) to realize that I gain close enough to zero intellectual benefit as a result of engaging with you. I've got better things to do with my time.

 

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18 minutes ago, mikewof said:
21 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Tell us about dispersion of aerosol particles, viral load, and likelihood of contagion.

I bet you can't string 3 coherent sentences together on the topic, although there's a tiny spark of optimist that would be glad to see you show some redeeming character.

 

I can string together 4 coherent sentences, but the owner of the company requires an NDA to share it with anyone. If you want to read it, be my guest. I'll send you a PM.

OK, nothing proprietary. How about just some general comments

For example I constantly see mis-statements in the public discourse about ventilation and viral spread; or the anti-mask brigade insisting that masks don't work.

Masks definitely work to disrupt or redirect flow so even the unfiltered airstream that person exhales -around- the mask does not form as wide spread a plume of contagious virus-carrying aerosol. Especially when that person is talking.

- DSK

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