TheDragon

How has the coronavirus COVID-19 affected your sailing?

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It seems inevitable we will have lots of cancelled events in the near future, but mostly wondering about individual decisions.

I'll start by saying that I'm headed down to Panama from Illinois on Saturday to continue work on my boat there, with a view to sailing away in mid-April. Requires two flights from Indy to Miami, then on to Panama, both a potential risk. But hopefully spread to Panama will take a while and I can sail away without catching this. I'm old enough to be concerned, albeit mostly healthy so hopefully would not be too serious.

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If you're in reasonable shape (not immunocompromised)....the risk of anything serious is miniscule. 80% of those confirmed with it have only minor symptoms....no worse than a cold...fully recovered after 4 weeks. 15% have needed to see a Dr...with pulmonary complications (like a heavy flu). The remaining 5% have been hospitalised with some fatalities amongst those over 80 yrs (estimated at 1% or less). The hype around this virus is far more damaging than the disease itself....enjoy the sail!

 

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470 World Championships start in a week in Palma, Mallorca Spain. Chinese team just pulled out. Looks like the event is still on schedule. I bet most of the teams have been there for weeks training with no issues. Event is an Olympic qualifier for teams such as the USA woman's teams. USA 470 Men’s team never had anyone challenge them for the spot, but this event solidifies the spot for them as well.

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37 minutes ago, Couta said:

If you're in reasonable shape (not immunocompromised)....the risk of anything serious is miniscule. 80% of those confirmed with it have only minor symptoms....no worse than a cold...fully recovered after 4 weeks. 15% have needed to see a Dr...with pulmonary complications (like a heavy flu). The remaining 5% have been hospitalised with some fatalities amongst those over 80 yrs (estimated at 1% or less). The hype around this virus is far more damaging than the disease itself....enjoy the sail!

 

Your numbers are so laughably off you should maybe not spread misinformation. 

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10 minutes ago, Miffy said:

Your numbers are so laughably off you should maybe not spread misinformation. 

Numbers are evolving. Listen to Fauci. He is the straight talker.

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We cancelled a yacht club meeting this week. I think it was the right thing to do.

FB- Doug

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It's easy to be afraid,  real easy, but keep in mind the numbers,  4000 people on the cruise ship in Oakland canned up together for a couple of weeks, dozens affected,  numbers don't justify panic

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I've been following COVID-19 since the beginning of the year. I feel like sailing with a small group of people is a relatively safe activity particularly in heavy wind.

I'm avoiding yacht club functions and working from home. Regattas are fine, I'm just not partying with more than five or so people at a time.

The worst cases may come from ingested viral material, so if you must go to yacht club functions you should avoid the buffets and beer taps. Get that straight shot of 151 or a bottle you open yourself.

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Got pulled over after having a few too many Rum’s at the Yacht Club!

B3FC4854-F17B-4963-81BE-AF249EF02B29.jpeg

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Just competed in Transworld regatta, a small one design Platu 25 regatta that has been happening for last several years in Ocean Marina, Jomtien, Thailand.  21 races in 4 days.  I lost my South African bow man to self quarantine, and 3 of the 7 planned teams could not travel here to compete.  It was incredibly good racing, but 7 boats would have been incredibly better...  As expected it really ended up being 2 match races between 1st and 2nd and then 3rd (my boat) and 4th.

On the plus side, there are virtually no obnoxiously loud rich Chinese tourists coming to the marina to go on their cattle-maran charter boats.  I feel for those businesses, but count that in the 'pluses' column personnally.

1583314447221.jpg

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I've stockpiled 25000 bog rolls down below, can't get into my boat to switch the main battery on now, so yeah, it's affected my sailing.

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4672e6e6ecfb496cb4fe164a9d378a63_md.jpg

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I invented this 5 years ago as a combo piece of Personal Protective Equipment for hull sanding, then coming home and giving it to your wife so you could grab a beer and watch the football without interruption. I called it the "PPECorona-in-Peace". As you may guess it wasn't exactly a fucking roaring commercial success. 

I have just sold my one billionth unit on EBay, didn't even have to change the label and bought a 175 footer for beer-can racing....so yes Covid-19 has effected my sailing.

ESQj-06X0AAQCeZ.jpeg

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9 hours ago, Miffy said:

Your numbers are so laughably off you should maybe not spread misinformation. 

Just going with the facts Miffy...but hey...."the sky is falling...right?"

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-08/coronavirus-symptoms-explained-and-when-you-should-see-a-doctor/12024042?fbclid=IwAR30y2bWHC4yh1U8WnpeoAlBAL6FyReshXUltFrHDvhzUG828NSXt163nGU

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11 hours ago, Couta said:

If you're in reasonable shape (not immunocompromised)....the risk of anything serious is miniscule. 80% of those confirmed with it have only minor symptoms....no worse than a cold...fully recovered after 4 weeks. 15% have needed to see a Dr...with pulmonary complications (like a heavy flu). The remaining 5% have been hospitalised with some fatalities amongst those over 80 yrs (estimated at 1% or less). The hype around this virus is far more damaging than the disease itself....enjoy the sail!

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-08/coronavirus-symptoms-explained-and-when-you-should-see-a-doctor/12024042?fbclid=IwAR30y2bWHC4yh1U8WnpeoAlBAL6FyReshXUltFrHDvhzUG828NSXt163nGU

 

Quick fact check through your given reference says you didn't just go with the facts - particularly the bit now in bold "(estimated at 1% or less)"

Numbers to date (10 march 2020, 13:38 UTC.) from WHO: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

113,672 confirmed cases

4012 confirmed deaths

3.53% overall death rate. 

Death rate in Italy is over 5%.

Those over 80 have a high death rate, i read somewhere around 15%. This is primarily because many of those over 80 have other commodities - it's not just those who are immuno compromised. I'll find the reference soon and edit this post. 


 

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Let's see -- too cold to sail, haven't been to the boat yet, so no effect there.

Haven't checked the local dinghy race schedule yet (starts some time in April), so no effect there.

Still going FSA on the bareboat charter in the San Juans in June, so no effect there, although that's the one thing that might be out of my control if they decide to build a wall around Washington State.

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8 minutes ago, bplipschitz said:

Let's see -- too cold to sail, haven't been to the boat yet, so no effect there.

 

Our End O Season Dinner is Saturday evening, with the EOS regatta on the Sunday. The following Saturday is the Rigging out supper, followed by the start of summer season sailing on the Sunday..

 

 no cancellations...(yet)

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34 minutes ago, DrWatson said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-08/coronavirus-symptoms-explained-and-when-you-should-see-a-doctor/12024042?fbclid=IwAR30y2bWHC4yh1U8WnpeoAlBAL6FyReshXUltFrHDvhzUG828NSXt163nGU

 

Quick fact check through your given reference says you didn't just go with the facts - particularly the bit now in bold "(estimated at 1% or less)"

Numbers to date (10 march 2020, 13:38 UTC.) from WHO: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

113,672 confirmed cases

4012 confirmed deaths

3.53% overall death rate. 

Death rate in Italy is over 5%.

Those over 80 have a high death rate, i read somewhere around 15%. This is primarily because many of those over 80 have other commodities - it's not just those who are immuno compromised. I'll find the reference soon and edit this post. 


 

Not that arguments about statistics much affect what will happen or what you should do...but just to keep the thread going:

It may be worth differentiating between fatality rate and fatality rate for confirmed cases. The former will be smaller. Confirmed cases are a subset of those who have covid 19. Those who have milder symptoms will likely never be tested and of those who should be tested only a subset get/got tested because of testing protocols and shortages of tests (looking at you CDC).

For those confirmed cases among compromised patients the fatality rate is much higher with cardiovascular disease and diabetes seeming to be the worst 10.5% and 7.3% ...but those figures date from two weeks ago so may not be the latest.

Other sources have, not surprisingly, other numbers. Data from two weeks ago suggest fatality rates among confirmed patients of 2.3% with 81% of patients having only mild symptoms, 14% critical and 5% sever. Fatality rates in the critically ill of 49% and another of 61.5% ....

The data suggests Covid 19 is more transmittable but less deadly than SARS or MERS.  

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12 hours ago, Latadjust said:

It's easy to be afraid,  real easy, but keep in mind the numbers,  4000 people on the cruise ship in Oakland canned up together for a couple of weeks, dozens affected,  numbers don't justify panic

This is completely false.

Only 46  out of 3500 on board were tested.  21 were positive.  That's 46 pct positive rate which would translate to 1,598 people on board as positive.  Fun with statistics.  Pence never mentioned how many people were on board and the first time the Captain even learned of the results it was from passengers who heard the Pence conference and told him.  

The average age of deaths was 80 years old skewed by a dozen in one senior living facility getting wiped out  

 

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Here in Italy all racing is canceled for at least one month. This thing is a serious threat and I believe it had been neglected initially.

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36 minutes ago, KC375 said:

Not that arguments about statistics much affect what will happen or what you should do...but just to keep the thread going:

It may be worth differentiating between fatality rate and fatality rate for confirmed cases. The former will be smaller. Confirmed cases are a subset of those who have covid 19. Those who have milder symptoms will likely never be tested and of those who should be tested only a subset get/got tested because of testing protocols and shortages of tests (looking at you CDC).

 

Indeed, it's hard to be sure what's happening in the un-confirmed population. Are they not being tested through a lack of access or a lack of giving a shit? Where people have access to testing, if they're suffering respiratory failure they will surely be tested. Those without access will simply not be tested and will die of acute respiratory failure of unknown aetiology. 

Interesting that some countries are showing infection rates orders of magnitude below others w.r.t. population size...esp some that border China... 

34 minutes ago, KC375 said:

The data suggests Covid 19 is more transmittable but less deadly than SARS or MERS.  

Which is quite concerning because it makes a pandemic situation far more likely. And 3.5% of a few billion is quite a lot more dead people than 9% of a few thousand.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, DrWatson said:

...

Which is quite concerning because it makes a pandemic situation far more likely. And 3.5% of a few billion is quite a lot more dead people than 9% of a few thousand.

 

 

Quite. Wether it is 3.5% of a few billion or 1 or 2% of several billion...the numbers get large quickly.

 

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PLUS: We may swap out a planned land/flying vacation for a longer cruise this year.

MINUS: I may have a hard time getting a dust mask if I haul out and do the bottom this year.

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Hey...do what we had to do in Army basic training at Fort Ord in '66 for Meningitis ...windows in barracks open 24/7...no heat...no mingling with other platoons...water in butt  cans frozen over some mornings...but we all had colds and other maladies...

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As in a cruise ship cruise?

I wouldn't do that if they paid me. (to be fair I always thought that way about cruise ships, but going in circles for a month waiting to get sick makes it even worse)

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14 hours ago, silent bob said:

Got pulled over after having a few too many Rum’s at the Yacht Club!

B3FC4854-F17B-4963-81BE-AF249EF02B29.jpeg

A few days ago the police in Poland announced they would immediately stop breathalizer tests for drivers due to corona virus fears.  

I predict a rise in drunk driving deaths, which are already quite high, greater then the amount of  corona virus deaths in Poland.

A few dozen cases so far and no deaths here yet from the virus.

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3 hours ago, Cristoforo said:

This is completely false.

Only 46  out of 3500 on board were tested.  21 were positive.  That's 46 pct positive rate which would translate to 1,598 people on board as positive.  Fun with statistics.  Pence never mentioned how many people were on board and the first time the Captain even learned of the results it was from passengers who heard the Pence conference and told him.  

The average age of deaths was 80 years old skewed by a dozen in one senior living facility getting wiped out  

 

I’m  gonna go out on a limb and assume that the subset of the ships tested population were those most overtly showing symptoms. Even factoring for non symptomatic carriers, it’s a stretch to apply a 46 % positive rate to the remaining 3454 passengers who ‘may’ have not shown symptoms.

That said, the fact that this virus  seems to spread like wildfire would seem to merit an over abundance of caution until authorities and the general public get a handle on containing things.

 

 

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14 minutes ago, kent_island_sailor said:

Going on a cruise ship now = going to the pet rat convention  in 1350 or whenever the Black Plague was around.

Even before this outbreak I could not  fathom why anyone would want to board one of these floating trash compactors. I’m with you, couldn’t pay me enough...

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6 hours ago, DrWatson said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-08/coronavirus-symptoms-explained-and-when-you-should-see-a-doctor/12024042?fbclid=IwAR30y2bWHC4yh1U8WnpeoAlBAL6FyReshXUltFrHDvhzUG828NSXt163nGU

 

Quick fact check through your given reference says you didn't just go with the facts - particularly the bit now in bold "(estimated at 1% or less)"

Numbers to date (10 march 2020, 13:38 UTC.) from WHO: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

113,672 confirmed cases

4012 confirmed deaths

3.53% overall death rate. 

Death rate in Italy is over 5%.

Those over 80 have a high death rate, i read somewhere around 15%. This is primarily because many of those over 80 have other commodities - it's not just those who are immuno compromised. I'll find the reference soon and edit this post. 


 

Yes, but they have also determined many, many people who catch the virus experience mild symptoms and never report or get tested so it is not practical to think that we have a full count of those who have contracted it ("confirmed" cases is a much smaller number) Therefore, the denominator in the equation that calculates the 3.53% death rate is very likely much larger....which makes the true death rate much smaller so "less than 1%" is most likely much closer to the truth.

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2 hours ago, Tharsheblows said:

Yes, but they have also determined many, many people who catch the virus experience mild symptoms and never report or get tested so it is not practical to think that we have a full count of those who have contracted it ("confirmed" cases is a much smaller number) Therefore, the denominator in the equation that calculates the 3.53% death rate is very likely much larger....which makes the true death rate much smaller so "less than 1%" is most likely much closer to the truth.

It's amazing how people hear what they want to hear.

"Many many people who catch the virus experience only mild symptoms and never report or get tested" seems like great news, but if the people are never tested then how is the determination made that they've caught the virus? I'd be extremely dubious about leadership decisions based on this kind of data.

The mortality rate in Italy seems to be much higher for the most at-risk groups of people. Enough higher that it's a really bad idea to blow off the risk, unless you are trying to crank down the Social Security expenses.

FB- Doug

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So “take it on the chin” is:

80% infected: 42,000,000

3% mortality: 1,200,000 deaths, or

1%  mortality: 420,000 deaths.

Living with this insane clown as the boss must be fun.

PS. No surprise then that their Health Minister Nadine Dorries has tested positive.

 

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What worries me about this is the current assumed mortality rate (and we still have no real statistical basis due to undertesting)      assumes treatment resources are available. 

Working backwards,  the 3 percent is mostly 70 + years of age,  which had its own mortality rate of 15 percent. 

So the 1,200,000 fatalities were associated to 7x that number so 8,400,000 hospitalizations,  just for the 70 + age group.

The uk does not have that ability. 

We are finding out that neither does Italy. 

I think because of authoritarian rule the Chinese were able to isolate and bring in enough resources quickly. 

My feared prediction is the 15 per cent 70+ mortality will go significantly higher due to inability to get required care (respiration).

I suspect this is why the fatality rate had been comparatively double off China in Iran and Italy. 

Let's hope there are far more unknowingly once contagious now recovered out there to skew the statistics back to less scary rates. 

The world needs an antibody test asap to properly understand and cope.

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2 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

It's amazing how people hear what they want to hear.

"Many many people who catch the virus experience only mild symptoms and never report or get tested" seems like great news, but if the people are never tested then how is the determination made that they've caught the virus? I'd be extremely dubious about leadership decisions based on this kind of data.

The mortality rate in Italy seems to be much higher for the most at-risk groups of people. Enough higher that it's a really bad idea to blow off the risk, unless you are trying to crank down the Social Security expenses.

FB- Doug

I'm making no political comment or comment on how it is being handled by the government. 

My point is just that we know for a fact that many, many people who were confirmed to have caught the virus had very mild symptoms and would not have even gone to the doctor had they not been swept up in a population that received mandatory testing.  One lady said she had a mild fever one night so she went to bed and woke up feeling fine.  She spent the entire quarantine period bored and restless doing yoga in her room. 

It is not logical to think that we identified all the cases when we know that it is quite common for the symptoms to be very mild.  Therefore, it is not logical to think that the death rate that is calculated based on "confirmed cases" has the correct denominator (number of total cases), whereas most people go to doctor before the get sick enough to die so it is much more likely that the numerator (number of deaths from the virus) is much more accurate.  A bigger denominator and the same numerator means a smaller death rate.  Its just logic and math.

Also, the total number of deaths from COVID-19 in the US is currently 30.  This will definitely go up and it is certainly very sad and dramatic for the affected people and their loved ones but deaths from the flu this season (which includes some of 2019) is estimated by the CDC to be 20,000.   And in an average year in the US between 12,000 and 60,000 people die of the flu.  And, similarly, those deaths are disproportionately the elderly and immuno-compromised.   My point is that COVID-19 has a long ways to go before it should be anyone's number one concern. 

The good news is that same hygiene behaviors help reduce exposure to both so you don't really have a hard decision to make.

   

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The virus has not affected my sailing at all. If anything I am even more brilliant that ever. But thanks for asking.

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^^^ I don't know... the sneezing and coughing makes my sunglasses creep down my nose. Otherwise, all is good 

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23 hours ago, fastyacht said:

Cant get masks cant sand cant get boat ready.

Buy a half mask respirator. Cheap and effective. 

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1 hour ago, dfw_sailor said:

I suspect this is why the fatality rate had been comparatively double off China in Iran and Italy

You are forgetting time. China, Italy up to two weeks today ahead of most other countries. See testing rates below that factor in time.

1 hour ago, dfw_sailor said:

The uk does not have that ability. 

We are finding out that neither does Italy

Italy ahead of UK along with nearly everybody else.

Hospital beds per 1,000 people (OECD). Spot the problem?

Japan 13
South Korea 12
Russia 8
Germany 8
France 6
Switzerland 4.5
China 4.3
Scotland 4.2
Australia 3.8
Italy 3.6
Spain 2.97
Ireland 2.96
USA 2.77
England 2.3

ESwK08_XkAAL_tZ.jpeg

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32 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

The good news is that same hygiene behaviors help reduce exposure to both so you don't really have a hard decision to make.

That works until you can't afford the fix.

ESqr-e6XsAIoUGu.thumb.jpeg.7e452c64c72058091d6340ad1c490c6d.jpeg

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44 minutes ago, 4ktsb said:

Buy a half mask respirator. Cheap and effective. 

They're all sold out. Mine is out of prefilters. And they are expensive anyway. PITA people are crazy. Buying shit they don't need.

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7 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

They're all sold out. Mine is out of prefilters. And they are expensive anyway. PITA people are crazy. Buying shit they don't need.

In addition to purchasing  limits two things working well.

- First item lowest cost, further items cost per item goes up.

- Tempoary suspension of cash back returns (unless defective) of all virus related products.

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1 hour ago, Tharsheblows said:

I'm making no political comment or comment on how it is being handled by the government. 

My point is just that we know for a fact that many, many people who were confirmed to have caught the virus had very mild symptoms and would not have even gone to the doctor had they not been swept up in a population that received mandatory testing.  One lady said she had a mild fever one night so she went to bed and woke up feeling fine.  She spent the entire quarantine period bored and restless doing yoga in her room. 

It is not logical to think that we identified all the cases when we know that it is quite common for the symptoms to be very mild.  Therefore, it is not logical to think that the death rate that is calculated based on "confirmed cases" has the correct denominator (number of total cases), whereas most people go to doctor before the get sick enough to die so it is much more likely that the numerator (number of deaths from the virus) is much more accurate.  A bigger denominator and the same numerator means a smaller death rate.  Its just logic and math.

Also, the total number of deaths from COVID-19 in the US is currently 30.  This will definitely go up and it is certainly very sad and dramatic for the affected people and their loved ones but deaths from the flu this season (which includes some of 2019) is estimated by the CDC to be 20,000.   And in an average year in the US between 12,000 and 60,000 people die of the flu.  And, similarly, those deaths are disproportionately the elderly and immuno-compromised.   My point is that COVID-19 has a long ways to go before it should be anyone's number one concern. 

The good news is that same hygiene behaviors help reduce exposure to both so you don't really have a hard decision to make.

   

This is the part that I don't understand. There are several reasons why the COVID-19 is more contagious, and more virulent, and has a well documented higher mortality rate... and a lot of people say "Gee, flu kills XX people so you should be worried about -that- not this coronavirus stuff."

The mortality rate for COVID-19 is approx 20 times higher than flu. The overall mortality rate for Italy, as of this evenings reports, has it slightly over 5%, with a MUCH HIGHER mortality rate for the elderly and pulmonary or immune compromised.

We may "have a long way to go" but this thing spreads fast. It's better to hit the brakes BEFORE you go over the cliff, not wait until it's obvious.

It won't do anybody harm to avoid crowds and wash their hands more, anyway.

- DSK

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1 hour ago, LB 15 said:

The virus has not affected my sailing at all. If anything I am even more brilliant that ever. But thanks for asking.

Not affecting mine either coz I haven’t been out for quite a while. Must admit I was a bit concerned about you coz you were recently in Italy but couldn’t remember if it was north, central or south.

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Not affecting my iggy list either, unless one dies and I might take them off out of respect.

 

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58 minutes ago, albanyguy said:

Not affecting mine either coz I haven’t been out for quite a while. Must admit I was a bit concerned about you coz you were recently in Italy but couldn’t remember if it was north, central or south.

I am over the worst of it now. Family have all recovered as well. We are all getting a bit sick of each other’s company.

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7 minutes ago, LB 15 said:

I am over the worst of it now. Family have all recovered as well. We are all getting a bit sick of each other’s company.

Were you self-isolating? PM me if you don't want to respond here.

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Let me see, how is this affected my sailing? 

Since work is done online this week and my boat is not touched sneezed or coughed on by anyone but me, I have found the perfect solution that prevents me from spreading the virus. Yeah, logging some hours now to make up for the hours spent on the water earlier...

 

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1 hour ago, Steam Flyer said:

This is the part that I don't understand. There are several reasons why the COVID-19 is more contagious, and more virulent, and has a well documented higher mortality rate... and a lot of people say "Gee, flu kills XX people so you should be worried about -that- not this coronavirus stuff."

The mortality rate for COVID-19 is approx 20 times higher than flu. The overall mortality rate for Italy, as of this evenings reports, has it slightly over 5%, with a MUCH HIGHER mortality rate for the elderly and pulmonary or immune compromised.

We may "have a long way to go" but this thing spreads fast. It's better to hit the brakes BEFORE you go over the cliff, not wait until it's obvious.

It won't do anybody harm to avoid crowds and wash their hands more, anyway.

- DSK

No actually that is not likely true.  That was my point.  The CDC estimates that in 2020 (as in barely over two months) there have been approximately 9,700,000 cases of the flu of which 87,000 resulted in hospitalization and 4,800 resulted in death.  Versus 647 cases of corona virus and 30 deaths.  That means more people have won the lotto in 2020 in the US than caught COVA-19, much less died from it.  You are far, far more likely to die in 2020 of the flu.  (and the flu hits the elderly and pulmonary or immune compromised harder as well)

At this point we have no good evidence that that COVA-19 is "more contagious or virulent" than the flu.  The flu is quite contagious and virulent.

We also know that as much as 80% of the "confirmed cases" of COVA-19 are mild which means (as I explained above) the quoted mortality rates are theoretical maximum rates and the true mortality rates are almost certainly much, much lower (just apply logic and math).  So no, the mortality rate is not likely "MUCH HIGHER" than the flu.  (some have estimated the mortality rate is as low as .05%)

I do agree that the number of cases and death toll will get much higher and that its probably always good to avoid crowds and wash your hands more.  But is important to understand that with 80% of cases being mild and cases present in over 109 countries, containment is likely not an option anymore.  In other words, we are already "over the cliff."  We now get to wait and see how bad the cliff really is. 

Also, the panic and inevitable economic consequences (layoffs and and cutbacks) that will result will likely kill more than 30 people in a country of 300 million.  So, yes, it will do harm to exaggerate the dangers of COVA-19.

 

So don't let it affect your sailing.  You're probably safer on the water than anywhere closer to other people!

 

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17 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

No actually that is not likely true.  That was my point.  The CDC estimates that in 2020 (as in barely over two months) there have been approximately 9,700,000 cases of the flu of which 87,000 resulted in hospitalization and 4,800 resulted in death.  Versus 647 cases of corona virus and 30 deaths.  That means more people have won the lotto in 2020 in the US than caught COVA-19, much less died from it.  You are far, far more likely to die in 2020 of the flu.  (and the flu hits the elderly and pulmonary or immune compromised harder as well)

At this point we have no good evidence that that COVA-19 is "more contagious or virulent" than the flu.  The flu is quite contagious and virulent.

We also know that as much as 80% of the "confirmed cases" of COVA-19 are mild which means (as I explained above) the quoted mortality rates are theoretical maximum rates and the true mortality rates are almost certainly much, much lower (just apply logic and math).  So no, the mortality rate is not likely "MUCH HIGHER" than the flu.  (some have estimated the mortality rate is as low as .05%)

I do agree that the number of cases and death toll will get much higher and that its probably always good to avoid crowds and wash your hands more.  But is important to understand that with 80% of cases being mild and cases present in over 109 countries, containment is likely not an option anymore.  In other words, we are already "over the cliff."  We now get to wait and see how bad the cliff really is. 

Also, the panic and inevitable economic consequences (layoffs and and cutbacks) that will result will likely kill more than 30 people in a country of 300 million.  So, yes, it will do harm to exaggerate the dangers of COVA-19.

 

So don't let it affect your sailing.  You're probably safer on the water than anywhere closer to other people!

 

^ This is pretty much my thinking but as a 65 yr old with a history of (mild) asthma, I'm... yeah, staying in more and washing my hands....

Genuine, verifiable facts are in short supply.  Stupid not to test more folks.  Initially, however, the test will scare a lot more people.  Until you get to a number of random tests that reflect the population at large, you can't really calculate mortality rates.  Just testing sick people or potentially sick people will yield high, apparent mortality numbers at first.

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2 hours ago, albanyguy said:

Were you self-isolating? PM me if you don't want to respond here.

Yeah pretty much - have been going in occasionally  to work but keeping well away from the staff and anyone else. Apart from that have been riding my bike very early each day and working on the boat and Hanging around at home like a tea towel. Our GP was not in the slightest bit interested in testing us when we first got back despite the fact that we had just spent 18 days in Milan and northern Italy and were all exhibiting flu symptoms! She Said the chances of us having it would be tiny. That was before they shut the whole friggin country down of course. My son tells me that everyone he knows in Milan is terrified. He said that all public places- normally teaming with people are deserted. 

Right or wrong, shit has got very real over there. 

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17 hours ago, DrWatson said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-08/coronavirus-symptoms-explained-and-when-you-should-see-a-doctor/12024042?fbclid=IwAR30y2bWHC4yh1U8WnpeoAlBAL6FyReshXUltFrHDvhzUG828NSXt163nGU

 

Quick fact check through your given reference says you didn't just go with the facts - particularly the bit now in bold "(estimated at 1% or less)"

Numbers to date (10 march 2020, 13:38 UTC.) from WHO: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

113,672 confirmed cases

4012 confirmed deaths

3.53% overall death rate. 

Death rate in Italy is over 5%.

Those over 80 have a high death rate, i read somewhere around 15%. This is primarily because many of those over 80 have other commodities - it's not just those who are immuno compromised. I'll find the reference soon and edit this post. 


 

Just to be clear - This is something we need to take seriously...just not PANIC about. Transmission rates are still relatively low and the results from around the globe vary dramatically....so there's alot still to be learned. What we do know is that behaving sensibly, taking precautions like washing hands a little more often and perhaps phoning rather than visiting Granny for a bit...will go a long way to minimizing the impact. Latest numbers (epidemiological study of 70,000 reported positive) are confirming that the death rates for this virus escalate from 0.2% for people under 50, to 14% for those 80+. Keep thinking. Keep looking for real, reliable info and above all....don't panic!

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5 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

You are forgetting time. China, Italy up to two weeks today ahead of most other countries. See testing rates below that factor in time.

Italy ahead of UK along with nearly everybody else.

Hospital beds per 1,000 people (OECD). Spot the problem?

Japan 13
South Korea 12
Russia 8
Germany 8
France 6
Switzerland 4.5
China 4.3
Scotland 4.2
Australia 3.8
Italy 3.6
Spain 2.97
Ireland 2.96
USA 2.77
England 2.3

ESwK08_XkAAL_tZ.jpeg

Interesting that Sth Korea has the highest testing rates...and the lowest death rate....Hmmm suggests that the rate of asymptomatic infection is higher.. and the true death rate is much lower than reported......Also highlights the fucked up health system in the US, where people need insurance to cover the cost of testing...estimated @ $700 per head. Consequently fewer tests are run and asymptomatic infection is unchecked. Doesn't bode well for their ability to respond to the issue. Ironic if one of the world leaders in medical services provision is hit hardest.....

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32 minutes ago, Couta said:

Interesting that Sth Korea has the highest testing rates...and the lowest death rate....Hmmm suggests that the rate of asymptomatic infection is higher.. and the true death rate is much lower than reported......Also highlights the fucked up health system in the US, where people need insurance to cover the cost of testing...estimated @ $700 per head. Consequently fewer tests are run and asymptomatic infection is unchecked. Doesn't bode well for their ability to respond to the issue. Ironic if one of the world leaders in medical services provision is hit hardest.....

Yeah so the cost of testing here in Switzerland is less than $200 ... see the problem there? The "for-profit" health system in the US is gonna do no one any favours on this.

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13 minutes ago, DrWatson said:

Yeah so the cost of testing here in Switzerland is less than $200 ... see the problem there? The "for-profit" health system in the US is gonna do no one any favours on this.

Just to add to that, one of the many reasons that healthcare in the United States is so expensive is that we have a culture of litigating everything.  Many things in Europe are cheaper because if you slip an fall in the hospital waiting room you can't sue the hospital for millions of dollars.  (thats a bit of a joke but also not...the liability associated with providing healthcare is enormous which raises to cost of everything)

The flip side of that is that (correct me if I'm wrong European doctors) if a European is the victim of negligence that would be possibly actionable in the US they may have to just suck it up and deal with it... no?

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4 hours ago, Tharsheblows said:

I do agree that the number of cases and death toll will get much higher and that its probably always good to avoid crowds and wash your hands more.  But is important to understand that with 80% of cases being mild and cases present in over 109 countries, containment is likely not an option anymore.  In other words, we are already "over the cliff."  We now get to wait and see how bad the cliff really is. 

Looks like the chance to contain this, if there ever was one, is probably gone.
Uncontained, the cases will rise exponentially, until the virus runs out of uninfected people.
The game now is to "flatten the curve": if you can slow the spread, you have fewer people that are sick simultaneously, the better the healthcare system can cope with the critical cases. (From the data in post #28 it looks like Japan may have been successful in that).
The "normal" flu, spread out over an entire season may be "baked in" to our expectation and what the medical system can cope with, but this one looks ~20 times more deadly, and may peak much more quickly.

That, and not the small current case numbers, is what all planning and counter measures need to be directed at.

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I think there's an important difference between beds/1000 pop. and acute care beds/1000 pop. 

 

In Switerland (2014 WHO values)

4.68 beds per 1000

2.91 acute beds per 1000

Source: WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2014

Can't find any newer numbers so quickly. But importantly, the question is, in the absence of a coronavirus outbreak, how much of that capacity is full anyway? Lastly, At least here in Switzerland, most people seem to have complete faith that the emergency hospitals, i.e. those run by the military and hidden away in bunkers under parks and in the mountains will cope. I'm not so sure myself...

 

 

Anyway, in terms of affecting my sailing, we still have plans, but it's possible the elderly who were to care for our young children while we pissed off over the horizon will not be doing so... 

 

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3 hours ago, Tharsheblows said:

Just to add to that, one of the many reasons that healthcare in the United States is so expensive is that we have a culture of litigating everything.  Many things in Europe are cheaper because if you slip an fall in the hospital waiting room you can't sue the hospital for millions of dollars.  (thats a bit of a joke but also not...the liability associated with providing healthcare is enormous which raises to cost of everything)

The flip side of that is that (correct me if I'm wrong European doctors) if a European is the victim of negligence that would be possibly actionable in the US they may have to just suck it up and deal with it... no?

One of my cousins went into brain surgery -- in the early 80s. In 1985 his own liability insurance premium was six figures. In 1985!

On the other hand, insurance for small engineering firms has always been too expensive, so plenty simply don't have it.

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11 hours ago, dfw_sailor said:

What worries me about this is the current assumed mortality rate (and we still have no real statistical basis due to undertesting)      assumes treatment resources are available. 

Working backwards,  the 3 percent is mostly 70 + years of age,  which had its own mortality rate of 15 percent. 

So the 1,200,000 fatalities were associated to 7x that number so 8,400,000 hospitalizations,  just for the 70 + age group.

The uk does not have that ability. 

We are finding out that neither does Italy. 

I think because of authoritarian rule the Chinese were able to isolate and bring in enough resources quickly. 

My feared prediction is the 15 per cent 70+ mortality will go significantly higher due to inability to get required care (respiration).

I suspect this is why the fatality rate had been comparatively double off China in Iran and Italy. 

Let's hope there are far more unknowingly once contagious now recovered out there to skew the statistics back to less scary rates. 

The world needs an antibody test asap to properly understand and cope.

Dr. Nicholas Christakis at Yale currently estimates 35,000 U.S. fatalities as essentially a lowest estimate. Yes, he and his wife were made famous by the halloween costume issue some years ago. He is an sociologist physician and an excellent speaker. His work is interesting and very "cutting edge."

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6 hours ago, Tharsheblows said:

No actually that is not likely true. ..

 

 

To follow that statement up with a lot of horse shit which you probably heard from reliable medical sources like Rush Limbaugh...

bye

 

6 hours ago, Veeger said:

^ This is pretty much my thinking but as a 65 yr old with a history of (mild) asthma, I'm... yeah, staying in more and washing my hands....

Genuine, verifiable facts are in short supply.  Stupid not to test more folks.  Initially, however, the test will scare a lot more people.  Until you get to a number of random tests that reflect the population at large, you can't really calculate mortality rates.  Just testing sick people or potentially sick people will yield high, apparent mortality numbers at first.

 

Actually, we have seen the initial stages play out in a couple of other countries now. There is not a shortage of facts.

There is a shortage of willingness to listen to facts, and lot of looking for facts in the wrong places.

For those who actually want to know

https://www.ncdhhs.gov/divisions/public-health/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-response-north-carolina

FB- Doug

 

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The only reliable federal voice is Dr. Anthony Fauci.

And Fox, especially Hannity, are sowing confusion.

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5 hours ago, Tharsheblows said:

 

The flip side of that is that (correct me if I'm wrong European doctors) if a European is the victim of negligence that would be possibly actionable in the US they may have to just suck it up and deal with it... no?

In the uk people still sue the NHS. However other aspects of the UK legal system mean that payouts are lower and less frequent than they would be in the US. 

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6 hours ago, LB 15 said:

Yeah pretty much - have been going in occasionally  to work but keeping well away from the staff and anyone else. Apart from that have been riding my bike very early each day and working on the boat and Hanging around at home like a tea towel. Our GP was not in the slightest bit interested in testing us when we first got back despite the fact that we had just spent 18 days in Milan and northern Italy and were all exhibiting flu symptoms! She Said the chances of us having it would be tiny. That was before they shut the whole friggin country down of course. My son tells me that everyone he knows in Milan is terrified. He said that all public places- normally teaming with people are deserted. 

Right or wrong, shit has got very real over there. 

It certainly has...in a cycling and football mad country they've cancelled the Spring Classics and all Football Leagues. And that was before the PM decreed the whole country was under lockdown. Shit got serious very quick. I'm guessing you haven't seen my post in the 2019-nCoV thread in GA? I refer you to it 

 

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8 minutes ago, JohnMB said:

In the uk people still sue the NHS. However other aspects of the UK legal system mean that payouts are lower and less frequent than they would be in the US. 

This has been the case since 1st April 1991 Before that it was judged that as a Her Majesties Government owned " group" ,  you could not to sue HMG in Her own Majesties Courts.. 

The chipping away at Crown Immunities started in 1947 and slowly changed throughout the Crown Businesses. Crown immunity for the Military ended in 1987 ( with exceptions)

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6 hours ago, Couta said:

Also highlights the fucked up health system in the US, where people need insurance to cover the cost of testing...estimated @ $700 per head.

In the US if you get it, the insurers will classify it a pre-condition.

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6 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

In the US if you get it, the insurers will classify it a pre-condition.

Well they *would* have but that is one part of the ACA that has not been gutted.

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Emergency meeting happening today to discuss the upcoming schedule for a very large class association. 

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18 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

It sucks to live in the land of the free. in a well regulated autocracy the government has a right to do whatever it wants with samples taken from your body. In the USA the government, and private organizations need explicit permission.

This is not government dumfuckery, this is a choice WE made, and WE have to live with the consequences  or we cannot benefit from the advantages. Individual researchers, NO MATTER HOW RIGHT THEY ARE, don't get to change the rules.

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6 minutes ago, JohnMB said:

It sucks to live in the land of the free. in a well regulated autocracy the government has a right to do whatever it wants with samples taken from your body. In the USA the government, and private organizations need explicit permission.

This is not government dumfuckery, this is a choice WE made, and WE have to live with the consequences  or we cannot benefit from the advantages. Individual researchers, NO MATTER HOW RIGHT THEY ARE, don't get to change the rules.

You didn't read the article or haven't been paying attention. The difference between how the CDC and the FDA function in this outbreak, compared to how they functioned in previous ones, say for instance, Ebola, is striking. Shit just doesn't get done now. Lots of paralysis and crossed signals, delays and obfuscation and face saving. This has been a repeating dynamic.

You listen to Fauci, who tells it straight, and listen to the administrator for the CDC and you think, "what's with that guy?"  There's something going on at CDC and it is not good. I think I know what it is.

 

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Cancelled our plans for a spring (before hurricane season) sailing vacation. Too much flying and just too fraught up there. If we live past hurricane season can try again.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/2020/03/10/flight-diverted-after-passengers-became-disruptive-over-someone-coughing/5009043002/

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IIRC the current US Surgeon General said the Orange One is healthier than he (Surgeon General) is.  

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Anyone have any guesstimates on how this would impact the Newport to Bermuda Race in June? Think the U.S. will be largely past their issues by then? 

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7 hours ago, Couta said:

Interesting that Sth Korea has the highest testing rates...and the lowest death rate....Hmmm suggests that the rate of asymptomatic infection is higher.. and the true death rate is much lower than reported......Also highlights the fucked up health system in the US, where people need insurance to cover the cost of testing...estimated @ $700 per head. Consequently fewer tests are run and asymptomatic infection is unchecked. Doesn't bode well for their ability to respond to the issue. Ironic if one of the world leaders in medical services provision is hit hardest.....

Note that the mortality rate for S. Korea and Germany are both very low.  There is more than just standard "infection rates" at play here.  Those are two societies where conformance is very much in-grained, and privacy is prized unlike here in the US.

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The Saudis are making spring travel easier, love seeing gas prices tank just before a big road trip with the boat.
Looking forward to seeing the covid-19 tank the airline prices too, hoping to grab this year's flights for a bargain.
As they say - buy low, sell high? I'm in.

Total Covid-19 deaths (worldwide, 2019-2020 season): 4,373
Total flu deaths (in USA only, 2017-2018 season): 61,000
Flatten the curve, identify, and stay home if sick. Not freaking out.

The fact that the entire world can change their work and travel habits on this, but not climate change, is arguably hilarious.
 

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10 minutes ago, JohnMB said:

It sucks to live in the land of the free. in a well regulated autocracy the government has a right to do whatever it wants with samples taken from your body. In the USA the government, and private organizations need explicit permission.

This is not government dumfuckery, this is a choice WE made, and WE have to live with the consequences  or we cannot benefit from the advantages. Individual researchers, NO MATTER HOW RIGHT THEY ARE, don't get to change the rules.

The ‘land of the free’ still allows this state governer to call in the National Guard and lock down New Rochelle. 19 states have followed suit and declared a state of emergency. That, is also a choice made in a free society.

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21 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

IIRC the current US Surgeon General said the Orange One is healthier than he (Surgeon General) is.  

you know what i heard? I heard Orange Man Bad.

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@Earl Boebert posted this over in ACA. The last 30 sec if nothing else, shows why social distancing and handwashing matter.

 

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