TheDragon

How has the coronavirus COVID-19 affected your sailing?

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

That has been around for ages and reprint of China Seas Post story, not a epidemiology trace attached to the most likely Dec Ground Zeros in Wuhan. There is more than one. What happened to all contacts made with this person and no case records? Those people evaporate?

Your reading is also not good. Wuhan not a town of 60 million, in a province of 60m.

You also missed the words; "Even with this Nov. 17 case identified, doctors can't be certain the individual is "patient zero,"

So get your eraser out on that post, you are making shit up again.

You have basically made my point for me but don't realize it.  Yes, "Even with this Nov. 17 case identified, doctors can't be certain the individual is "patient zero." 

That means that the first patient they identified was on November 17 but that they cannot be sure that there wasn't an earlier case that they didn't that they didn't find which is basically what I have been saying since the beginning of this conversation that you don't seem to understand.  Moreover, if that patient was found on November 17, since the virus has a two week incubation period, he could contracted it as early as November 3.

As many as 60,000 people fly in and out of the greater Wuhan area airport everyday.  The chances that someone could have left the area in November is very high.

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26 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

You have basically made my point for me but don't realize it.  Yes, "Even with this Nov. 17 case identified, doctors can't be certain the individual is "patient zero." 

That means that the first patient they identified was on November 17 but that they can not be sure ...

Blow cease sniping quotes and casting aside the "authoritive bits" you don't like indicating a December Ground Zero not mid November. You are putting a unsubstantiated quote from a hospital doctor with no epidemiology experience, not involved in trace program (so not a "they") and already discounted, up against a huge track and trace program to find the timing of ground zero(s) in China.

"That has been around for ages and reprint of China Seas Post story, not a epidemiology trace attached to the most likely Dec Ground Zeros in Wuhan. There is more than one."

Now please go away with your made up shit.

3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

That has been around for ages and reprint of China Seas Post story, not a epidemiology trace attached to the most likely Dec Ground Zeros in Wuhan. There is more than one. What happened to all contacts made with this person and no case records? Those people evaporate?

 

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Grasping at straws for alternative facts to imply E Asians are less vulnerable for a novel virus is truly next level - when there’s so much evidence re how many people have died in the PRC, how the country locked down for months - how ROK aggressively tracked and contact traced. 
 

Apparently Taiwanese are just pissing money away. 
 

BTW from actual clinical pathologist note with SARS background: E Asians don’t have fewer ACE2, if anything genetic predisposition for diabetes at lower BMI & number of folks getting treated with ACE inhibitors makes ppl more vulnerable 

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1 hour ago, Miffy said:

Grasping at straws for alternative facts to imply E Asians are less vulnerable for a novel virus is truly next level -...

Miff actually Blows "narrative" sitting behind his virus escaped "mid-Nov" posts is that underpins China's "failure' to stop it's spread within China and "failed" to stop it's escape from China, hence they are responsible for an epidemic being elevated to pandemic status.

Mutual border security relies upon normal international protocols at port of departure that also includes airlines. That aside ultimately border protection rests with the country at port of entry, not China.

Forgotten is WHO first hoisted the red flag on 31 December followed by a pending high risk global threat of pandemic in January. Sth Korea acted on the 3rd of January yet many others didn't act until early February after around 100 cases reported outside China and some even as late as last month.

Huge critisisms can be levelled against the Chinese from background germination reasons to detection and slow/shit outside advise, but border control isn't one having regard to subsequent national responses.

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The marina where my boat is stored has banned access to my boat. Only the liveabords are allowed to be at the marina. We are not even allowed to check on our boats if foul weather is forecast and must rely on minimum wage kids to check on the lines, clearance and fenders. 

It is a rule I do not agree with. It is very simple to maintain social distancing at the marina. You dont have to touch the gate to gain access to your vessel and once aboard, social distancing is assured. 

It is my boat. I am not going out to sea on it but, believe I should have the right to check on it if able to do so and maintain social distancing. 

What say you guys and girls?

 

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29 minutes ago, Salty Seacock said:

What say you guys and girls?

If you own two houses living in one, are you allowed under local measures/laws to check on the other one, collect the rent etc?? If so your Club management are uber dickheads.

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So here in Oz, our sailing club has shut down, along with all my other outside activities, and we are not supposed to travel except for essential items and going to the doc, exercise etc. Trades people can still travel, so what I am going to do is drag out the sailboat towing vehicle (an old Toyota wagon) strap a ladder on the racks with a few timber planks, wear a fluro top, and I'll be able to go anywhere I like! I'll be a tradie...

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5 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Miff actually Blows "narrative" sitting behind his virus escaped "mid-Nov" posts is that underpins China's "failure' to stop it's spread within China and "failed" to stop it's escape from China, hence they are responsible for an epidemic being elevated to pandemic status.

Mutual border security relies upon normal international protocols at port of departure that also includes airlines. That aside ultimately border protection rests with the country at port of entry, not China.

Forgotten is WHO first hoisted the red flag on 31 December followed by a pending high risk global threat of pandemic in January. Sth Korea acted on the 3rd of January yet many others didn't act until early February after around 100 cases reported outside China and some even as late as last month.

Huge critisisms can be levelled against the Chinese from background germination reasons to detection and slow/shit outside advise, but border control isn't one having regard to subsequent national responses.

No Jack, that the is political discussion you keep on trying to have.

My point in mentioning China’s failure to contain the virus within China was only to support my assumption that the virus likely made it to every major city within China.  (i.e if they couldn’t keep the virus within the national borders they probably couldn’t  contain it within the greater Wuhan area either)

This is important only to decide if their reported death toll was out of 1.4 billion Chinese or some smaller population of the greater Wuhan area.

Either way, their number now seem pretty low.  Many are convinced that they are liars.  That explanation might be true but we don’t have much additional evidence of that yet.

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31 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

..My point in mentioning China’s failure to contain the virus within China was only to support my assumption that the virus likely made it to every major city within China.  (i.e if they couldn’t keep the virus within the national borders they probably couldn’t  contain it within the greater Wuhan area either)..

Blow uou suddenly got all shy about using word "failure" ..only once here??  Anyway amazing detective work you have got going there...keep up the good work..what ever it is.

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6 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Blow cease sniping quotes and casting aside the "authoritive bits" you don't like indicating a December Ground Zero not mid November. You are putting a unsubstantiated quote from a hospital doctor with no epidemiology experience, not involved in trace program (so not a "they") and already discounted, up against a huge track and trace program to find the timing of ground zero(s) in China.

"That has been around for ages and reprint of China Seas Post story, not a epidemiology trace attached to the most likely Dec Ground Zeros in Wuhan. There is more than one."

Now please go away with your made up shit.

 

Im merely pointing out that it is possible that the first actual case was in November and an article stating that a case was identified by a doctor on November 17 sufficiently doesn’t that, no track and trace necessary.  Now maybe this doctor was wrong or was lying but we have the same issue with all the information out of China as many people have pointed out.

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This could affect all but solo sailing - the National Academy of Sciences is now saying talking and possibly breathing can spread the virus.

(CNN) A prestigious scientific panel told the White House Wednesday night that research shows coronavirus can be spread not just by sneezes or coughs, but also just by talking, or possibly even just breathing.

"While the current [coronavirus] specific research is limited, the results of available studies are consistent with aerosolization of virus from normal breathing," according to the letter, written by Dr. Harvey Fineberg, chairman of a committee with the National Academy of Sciences.
 
Fineberg, chair of the NAS' Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats, said his letter was sent Wednesday evening in response to a query from Kelvin Droegemeier with the Office of Science and Technology Policy at the White House.
 
"This letter responds to your question concerning the possibility that [coronavirus] could be spread by conversation, in addition to sneeze/cough-induced droplets," the letter states. "Currently available research supports the possibility that [coronavirus] could be spread via bioaerosols generated directly by patients' exhalation," it continues.

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Blows, sorry but this is my last response to you. You are clearly wrong on this whole situation and the mess the US has made of this will prove it in short order. I'd prefer this thread to return to what I started it for, updates on effects on sailing. Perhaps though at this point nobody can sail anywhere, I certainly cannot even kitesurf anywhere.

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Thanks to sailing friend DK - "So when approaching the starting line call "social distancing!" instead of "barging!"

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11 hours ago, Tharsheblows said:

that a case was identified by a doctor on November 17 sufficiently doesn’t that, no track and trace necessary.

Trace not necessary. Do you have a learning disability. So you say this a orphan case with no prior and no subsequent case connections. That would make him China's Case Zero, but who didn't transmit it to anybody sitting there one month in advance of the real case zero (s). That hypothesis means there has been no Pandemic.

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7 hours ago, TheDragon said:

updates on effects on sailing.

Very few places are not closed down, only cruising left. Interestingly people appear not to be going boating to get away from it, isolate and have fun.

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

 Interestingly people appear not to be going boating to get away from it, isolate and have fun.

Yep, In the last couple of days all the fishers and Jet ski clowns have disappeared.

The Anchorages are pretty much just the cruisers.

We get a few kiddies in dinghies dropping over for a fish in the afternoon. 

They are really respectful and don't land on the beach if we are ashore exercising.

When the isolation thinghy was first announced, the boating traffic was like a  long-weekend during school holidays at the height of summer 24/7

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Went sailing today. State shutdown starts at midnight here but there are large loopholes.......

 

Included in the list of “essentials” is fishing, bicycling and even swimming. The FWC here is stating that as long as you are not on the beach or rafted up, or in groups greater than 10 people it’s ok to be on the water. We figured we will have a line in the water the next time we go sailing so we can say we are fishing. 
 

This idiot posted this video of two FWC guys telling he and his buddies they were going to have to get off the beach and have their boats 50’ apart. The anchorage in this clip is one of the best in all of Florida (just inside Pensacola Pass). These knucklehead powerboaters pull in by the dozens, crank their shitty country music up and ruin it for the rest of us. 
 

Enjoy the video.....
https://youtu.be/dKmH9PR5VqM

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7 minutes ago, Woods Rider said:

Went sailing today. State shutdown starts at midnight here but there are large loopholes.......

 

Included in the list of “essentials” is fishing, bicycling and even swimming. The FWC here is stating that as long as you are not on the beach or rafted up, or in groups greater than 10 people it’s ok to be on the water. We figured we will have a line in the water the next time we go sailing so we can say we are fishing. 
 

This idiot posted this video of two FWC guys telling he and his buddies they were going to have to get off the beach and have their boats 50’ apart. The anchorage in this clip is one of the best in all of Florida (just inside Pensacola Pass). These knucklehead powerboaters pull in by the dozens, crank their shitty country music up and ruin it for the rest of us. 
 

Enjoy the video.....
https://youtu.be/dKmH9PR5VqM

Screenshot_2020-04-03-00-04-46.png

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3 hours ago, Woods Rider said:

...This idiot posted this video of two FWC guys telling he and his buddies they were going to have to get off the beach and have their boats 50’ apart...
 

Enjoy the video.....
https://youtu.be/dKmH9PR5VqM

Whaart Constitutionaarl Laaw is dat...we ain't under Marshaall Laaw.

At that point they could have either just shot Larry and let the tide do the rest, OR allowed their high tolerance of fuckwits training to apply.

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The situation of the CV19 epidemic is terrible.......but looking for silver linings, lock downs and social distancing have significantly reduced auto accidents, flu deaths etc, such that the net result is that less Americans are dying this Spring.

I know this is scant consolation for those suffering loss of loved ones from CV19 and financial hardship...but as I say a small silver lining:

image.png.5d9f4a93cc8db0828674e76602b21184.png

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12 minutes ago, IPLore said:

The situation of the CV19 epidemic is terrible.......but looking for silver linings, lock downs and social distancing have significantly reduced auto accidents, flu deaths etc, such that the net result is that less Americans are dying this Spring.

I know this is scant consolation for those suffering loss of loved ones from CV19 and financial hardship...but as I say a small silver lining:

image.png.5d9f4a93cc8db0828674e76602b21184.png

I was wondering about these things and pollution too. The air has been outstandingly clear lately, downwind of NY.

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Whaart Constitutionaarl Laaw is dat...we ain't under Marshaall Laaw.

At that point they could have either just shot Larry and let the tide do the rest, OR allowed their high tolerance of fuckwits training to apply.

Poor guy. He's a plumber. Maybe he has ingested too much plumbum. Ironically he is essential at the moment. Maybe that went to his head.

He just won't give it up. Painful.

 

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26 minutes ago, IPLore said:

The situation of the CV19 epidemic is terrible.......but looking for silver linings, lock downs and social distancing have significantly reduced auto accidents, flu deaths etc, such that the net result is that less Americans are dying this Spring.

I know this is scant consolation for those suffering loss of loved ones from CV19 and financial hardship...but as I say a small silver lining:

image.png.5d9f4a93cc8db0828674e76602b21184.png

Can't possibly be true. We were told with absolute certainty that there would be far more suicides and other deaths because of mitigation actions and that unless restrictions were eased, the cure would be worse than the problem.

Are you saying that was wrong? Well I'll be…

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24 minutes ago, RobG said:

Can't possibly be true. We were told with absolute certainty that there would be far more suicides and other deaths because of mitigation actions and that unless restrictions were eased, the cure would be worse than the problem.

Are you saying that was wrong? Well I'll be…

You ain't seen nuthin' yet my friend, nuthin' YET.....

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13 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:
14 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

 Interestingly people appear not to be going boating to get away from it, isolate and have fun.

Yep, In the last couple of days all the fishers and Jet ski clowns have disappeared.

We're still not seeing a drop in the boats passing by the house on the way to Charlotte Harbor.  Sometimes it seems like more.  But today is day one of the stay-at-home order so we'll see.

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21 minutes ago, Cristoforo said:

Floridumb redneck posts youtube video showing himself to be a moron.
What are the chances of that happening?   

Oh joy. Another sovereign citizen. 

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2 hours ago, IPLore said:

The situation of the CV19 epidemic is terrible.......but looking for silver linings, lock downs and social distancing have significantly reduced auto accidents, flu deaths etc, such that the net result is that less Americans are dying this Spring.

Mate you forgot the distancing thing has meant >65 year old hooker fatality rates due to heart attack have also plummeted.

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1 hour ago, RobG said:

Can't possibly be true. We were told with absolute certainty that there would be far more suicides and other deaths because of mitigation actions and that unless restrictions were eased, the cure would be worse than the problem.

Are you saying that was wrong? Well I'll be…

Though more deaths from substance abuse from going stir crazy sound pretty good. I'm on my 2nd bottle for the day and trying to find the phone number of a guy I bought weed off in 1986.

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19 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Though more deaths from substance abuse from going stir crazy sound pretty good. I'm on my 2nd bottle for the day and trying to find the phone number of a guy I bought weed off in 1986.

Just go fishing.

49726311132_2777b0c7ed_k.thumb.jpg.eaeea2cfe4a1943eaacdeb640ea79a34.jpg

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Joined a local social club with a bar in the neighborhood this year since our club is only open on the weekend off-season. That closed on March 16th. I met the Grand Poobah’s Mother at an event there in early March. She’s dead now from Covid. 

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That's an awful and also chilling anecdote. Late February/early March was trouble.

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8 hours ago, fastyacht said:

Poor guy. He's a plumber. Maybe he has ingested too much plumbum. Ironically he is essential at the moment. Maybe that went to his head.

He just won't give it up. Painful.

 

Interested to see how this guy and his family get triaged when they are brought into @Eyesailor 's  hospital struggling for breath.

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On 4/3/2020 at 5:04 PM, IPLore said:

Interested to see how this guy and his family get triaged when they are brought into @Eyesailor 's  hospital struggling for breath.

He would be treated. Republican/Democrat...Old/young...Black/White....A'hole/saint....sailor/jet skier......we will do everything we can.

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On 4/4/2020 at 7:04 AM, IPLore said:

Interested to see how this guy and his family get triaged when they are brought into @Eyesailor 's  hospital struggling for breath.

 

33 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

He would be treated. Republican/Democrat...Old/young...Black/White....A'hole/saint....sailor/jet skier......we will do everything we can.

Eye in UK already triaging out the elderly with underlying issues to free up ICU capacity for the younger/healthier. 13 one nursing home in one week. Not dieing in a hospital they don't get counted as a ConVid death until maybe later, maybe never. 

Keep up your wonderful work.

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On 4/1/2020 at 5:47 PM, jack_sparrow said:

Science degree and probably own shoes older than you.

Next question.

I am intrigued as to the relevance of older shoes than a person. Go on let us know the science degree as i think you have amnesia personally.

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On 4/4/2020 at 10:35 PM, jack_sparrow said:

 

 

Keep up your wonderful work.

I'm not in the front line. But my sister and many colleagues are.

Since my ventilators have been assigned (rightly) to CV19, there is not much I can do at this moment except provide moral support.

Thankfully shelter in place has also significantly reduced other cases.   Again (at the sake of repetition), the way that everyone can most help healthcare workers is by social distancing.

 

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Japan seems like a very different picture despite the very high population density.  My friend (also a doctor) who lives in Japan near Tokyo reports they never stopped seeing elective patients and doing elective cases and life is not very different than normal-the subway is only at 60% capacity (thats still alot if you have ever ridden on a Tokyo subway).

He is also puzzled why we are not sailing.  He asked why-"does the virus spread out on the water"?  Hard to explain our culture and lack of common sense.  IE. we could not follow social-distancing without being told to stay home.

Has anyone been defying the order and sailing alone or with your family on the upper Chesapeake?  Have you been boarded by the DNR?  I'm interested to see what everyone's experience has been.

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19 minutes ago, mpbeagle said:

Japan seems like a very different picture despite the very high population density.  My friend (also a doctor) who lives in Japan near Tokyo reports they never stopped seeing elective patients and doing elective cases and life is not very different than normal-the subway is only at 60% capacity (thats still alot if you have ever ridden on a Tokyo subway).

He is also puzzled why we are not sailing.  He asked why-"does the virus spread out on the water"?  Hard to explain our culture and lack of common sense.  IE. we could not follow social-distancing without being told to stay home.

Has anyone been defying the order and sailing alone or with your family on the upper Chesapeake?  Have you been boarded by the DNR?  I'm interested to see what everyone's experience has been.

We can and do sail and boat in CT. People also have been staying away from each other etc.

I don't know--some places go pear shaped others are more eevn keeled.

But I'e only seen one sailboat during my frequent walks on the beach and paddles on the sound. Only seen a couiple motorboats.

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I wouldn’t be too harsh on gov response in California. There’s potential for huge issues and people are consistently dumb on powerboats and without the ban, will be tying off boats together and having beer parties. 
 

in re Japan? Their “measured” response is not going to help them in the weeks to come - for weeks now public health experts have been trying to get Abe to move and not obsess about the Olympic. Now it may be too late. 

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1 hour ago, Miffy said:

I wouldn’t be too harsh on gov response in California. There’s potential for huge issues and people are consistently dumb on powerboats and without the ban, will be tying off boats together and having beer parties. 
 

in re Japan? Their “measured” response is not going to help them in the weeks to come - for weeks now public health experts have been trying to get Abe to move and not obsess about the Olympic. Now it may be too late. 

SFO was still accepting ~4 flights per day from Wuhan around January 25, after China had already shut down internal flights and buses from Wuhan and Hubei. Not much point in complaining now, but California could have acted sooner and more decisively.

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That wouldn’t have been a California decision. It needs federal response- commercial aviation is like trying to stem the flow of water by plugged one direct path, people would just rebook in others. 
 

the biggest comparison I can offer right now is SF vs NYC. Both heavily internationally traveled locales - in the beginning of March? One mayor was telling “healthy young” people to go to concerts and shows and take the subway it is all fine. 
 

the other was trying to preach social distancing and PPE stockpiling. 
 

guess which is the one with thousands of deaths per day?

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NY's response was Awful. California's was just barely acceptable.

California and Washington both defied the CDC and FDA to work on their own unapproved tests and treatment. Next time, I expect the door to be slammed on hot-zone travel, Feds or no.

 

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Has anyone been been sailing alone or with your family on the upper Chesapeake?  Have you been boarded by the DNR?  I'm interested to see what everyone's experience has been.

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WA and OR had banned sport fishing until yesterday. Although compliance was not complete, I guess people were listening, because the fleet was suddenly out in force yesterday. (Also the first very nice day of spring.) Today, the ban has been extended another month.  LEO boats remained at the dock, as far as I could tell.  

It will be interesting to see if this creates any observable deviation in fisheries population data.  

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So, 18,000 USA deaths, at least, total today, will be 20,000 tomorrow, projections now around 60,000 at least, and that's with most of the country staying at home. So much for all those who minimized this virus, the Chump-in-Chief especially. Can you just imagine what it would be like without stay-at-home? And we are just getting going with many cities and rural areas.

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1 hour ago, TheDragon said:

So, 18,000 USA deaths, at least, total today, will be 20,000 tomorrow, projections now around 60,000 at least, and that's with most of the country staying at home. So much for all those who minimized this virus, the Chump-in-Chief especially. Can you just imagine what it would be like without stay-at-home? And we are just getting going with many cities and rural areas.

So you imagine this will just continue... forever then? Hate to break it to you, but elderly people die of respiratory infections all the time. In fact, everyone dies eventually. Staying at home is not a solution, its just postponing the outcome by a few more weeks or months. 
 

We are imposing disproportionate and tyrannical costs on the poor, and the young — who are at very little risk — to protect people who are for the most part already quite unwell and have high chances of dying in next few years.

and stop with the crap #staythefuckinside memes. Thats not a solution, thats an abdication of decision making.

 

 

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Since nobody has ever done this before, finding the "right" balance is not obvious.
On the extreme, we know that with no interverntion at all, we'd see hospitals overrrun. We'd see a very high death rate--which would not only be "old people die of respiratory infections all the time." It would be 34 year old fathers of 2 kids, and 54 year olds with children in college, and even some 22 year old olympic athletes.

With no intervention, the death rate for those who find complications, would be staggeringly high. There would be no possibility for effective care.

By the way, people drown in this one. It is horrifying.

What we do know is that the opposite extreme--keep everything fully clamped down until a vaccine is distributed--is unworkable because of more than just economy, but all that that really means: food insecurity.

Somwhere in between. We need to get this under control.

That means transitioning to a south Korea model of aggressive test and trace. At least an horder of magnitude higher test rate. Probably 100x actually. Currently 100,000 TPD. We all go back to work, we maintain certain efforts (masks, 6 feet in many circumstances) but ball games come back. We test / certify people like the Koreans did.

Then after the vaccine we can finally go full normal. But that is 3 years from now realistically. IT takes time to make a vaccine and distribute it.

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Sweden has not shut down - they are seeing higher numbers than neighboring Norway, but We have to see how it plays out over 18 months. It’s likely that Norway rates will go up again, when they eventually capitulate.  And their economy and other health needs will have suffered substantially during the shutdown.

Also, our healthcare system is NOT overwhelmed. Many hospitals are laying off staff, in fact.  Additionally, the much ballyhooed ventilator shortages is a red herring to some degree. To be callous... something like 80+% of those ventilated die anyway. It seems to mostly delay death. And most elderly placed on ventilators who recover have brain damage... US hospitals do it, bc it costs a fortune that can be billed to medicare. But unless you are young, it won’t meaningfully change outcome for most.

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49 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

To be callous... something like 80+% of those ventilated die anyway. It seems to mostly delay death. And most elderly placed on ventilators who recover have brain damage... 

I guarantee you can't put an authoritative cite to your 80% die on vents. So you pulled that out of your arse.

You should tell 90 year old Bill here your theory that he should be brain dead.

I know who is brain dead.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

I guarantee you can't put an authoritative cite to your 80% die on vents. So you pulled that out of your arse.

You should tell 90 year old Bill here your theory that he should be brain dead.

I know who is brain dead.

 

Sadly, mortality rate for those over 60 on ventilators is staggeringly high, and citing one 90 yr old who survived cannot change that.  I doubt you’ll read this because it doesn’t confirm your bias, but since you asked, here you go... 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30079-5/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR1rjS0Q7FsWvBaOhVSOOuDFo4QVte7MoTJpMWhXMnvwO33I9P_dPJ3IMmI

 

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29 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

Sadly, mortality rate for those over 60 on ventilators is staggeringly high, and citing one 90 yr old who survived cannot change that.  I doubt you’ll read this because it doesn’t confirm your bias, but since you asked, here you go... 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30079-5/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR1rjS0Q7FsWvBaOhVSOOuDFo4QVte7MoTJpMWhXMnvwO33I9P_dPJ3IMmI

 

You need to read what you write.

You bias was against the need for ventilator capacity (that you call a red herring) and you based that on you saying "something like 80+% of those ventilated die anyway. It seems to mostly delay death."

Your cite doesn't support that noting it is based entirely on Chinese data collected and up to 4 months old. Your 60 years old a new construction.

I cited one 90 yr old not to dispute your 80% vent die claim but your claim as a survivor he should be brain dead.

Try reading dickhead.

1 hour ago, Controversial_posts said:

Also, our healthcare system is NOT overwhelmed. Many hospitals are laying off staff, in fact.  Additionally, the much ballyhooed ventilator shortages is a red herring to some degree. To be callous... something like 80+% of those ventilated die anyway. It seems to mostly delay death. And most elderly placed on ventilators who recover have brain damage.

 

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10 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

Go do some research about why they are dying and desire to keep patients off vents. Hint start with ICU/vent training/expertise, staffing ratios and staff numbers off work isolating.

Then ask yourself why this sudden revelation about vent deaths, people are on vents for respiratory illness day in day out all year long.

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Just now, jack_sparrow said:

Go do some research about why they are dying. Hint start with vent training and staffing ratios.

So now you’re a doctor too now?   The evidence is increasing that ventilators dont save many COVID patients, for reasons we don’t fully understand. There is more evidence that it is not a “standard” ARDS that’s killing them, doctors are trying many new things to avoid having to go to the ventilators. But as I expected, you had no interest in what the data shows, your mind is made up.

Numbers from NYC, since you dont like Chinese research:

 

 

C3742396-2020-4645-83BD-029468CDF4A5.jpeg

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12 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

So now you’re a doctor too now?  

..since you dont like Chinese  research :

Not about me son. It's your post to own and which you are not doing a very good job at. I have done all I can. 

I made no comment about Chinese research. So you like lying too it seems.

Not interested in your vent short supply a red herring bullshit.

1 hour ago, Controversial_posts said:

 ...ventilator shortages is a red herring to some degree......something like 80+% of those ventilated die anyway. It seems to mostly delay death. And most elderly placed on ventilators who recover have brain damage....

 

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1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

Not about me son. It's your post own and which you are not doing a very good job. I have done all I can. 

 

Be my guest, go on a ventilator. This study just looked at regular (non COVID) cases, only 19% ever go home. 
 

Findings

Of 6326 studies identified, 402 underwent full manuscript review, and 124 studies from 16 countries met the inclusion criteria. 39 studies reported mortality at 1 year, which was 59% (95% CI 56–62). Among the 29 high-quality studies, the pooled mortality at 1 year was 62% (95% CI 57–67). Pooled mortality at hospital discharge was 29% (95% CI 26–32). However, only 19% (16–24) were discharged to home and only 50% (47–53) were successfully liberated from mechanical ventilation. For studies in post-acute care hospitals, outcomes were worse in the USA than internationally (mortality at 1 year was 73% [95% CI 67–78] in the USA vs 47% [29–65] in non-USA countries; in-hospital mortality was 31% [26–37] vs 18% [14–24]; and liberation from ventilation was 47% [42–51] vs 63% [59–68]; p<0·0001 for all).

Interpretation

Although a high proportion of patients survived to hospital discharge, fewer than half of patients survived beyond 1 year. Future studies should focus on optimum patient selection for prolonged mechanical ventilation and integration of long-term outcome information into clinical decision making.

 

 

 

 

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That doesn't support your original post stating no ventilator shortages, vents not being used, vents a red herring etc. You don't even mention virus demand and  ICU/vent admission ratios with age demographics and fatalities which is the heart of your claim. Fuck off you are a dickhead.

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

That doesn't support your original post stating no ventilator shortages, vents not being used, vents a red herring etc. You don't even mention virus demand and  ICU/vent admission ratios with age demographics and fatalities which is the heart of your claim. Fuck off you are a dickhead.

Stop trying to play Dad on every fucken thread. People will thunk what they thunk. Is really that important that everyone thinks like you? Relax. 

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9 minutes ago, FinnFish said:

Stop trying to play Dad on every fucken thread. People will thunk what they thunk. Is really that important that everyone thinks like you? Relax. 

Simply debunking shitfuckery and if you object to that simply stop stalking.

PS. If you haven't worked it out fragmented thinking kills more people. Unified the evidence globally is to plain to see 

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3 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Simply debunking shitfuckery and if you object to that simply stop stalking.

Why don't you treat yourself to an extra teaspoon of brown sugar on your weeties tomorrow morning? Happy Easter.

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7 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

So you imagine this will just continue... forever then? Hate to break it to you, but elderly people die of respiratory infections all the time. In fact, everyone dies eventually. Staying at home is not a solution, its just postponing the outcome by a few more weeks or months. 
 

We are imposing disproportionate and tyrannical costs on the poor, and the young — who are at very little risk — to protect people who are for the most part already quite unwell and have high chances of dying in next few years.

and stop with the crap #staythefuckinside memes. Thats not a solution, thats an abdication of decision making.

 

 

818A1F7A-6085-46B6-81A7-389C5014CB49.thumb.jpeg.c184c5e69215bac9a22d7a04cf1b07fe.jpeg

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2 hours ago, mad said:

818A1F7A-6085-46B6-81A7-389C5014CB49.thumb.jpeg.c184c5e69215bac9a22d7a04cf1b07fe.jpeg

you forgot the #staythefuckinside   tag  ;-)

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on a sailing note,

 

2 days ago NYS closed all marinas and our closest marina shuts down today....SOOOO, yesterday one of my friends, had them launch his boat.  He bought a 300lb. mooring and all the chain associated with it and sank the mooring near (not too near) our club so he can throw his dinghy into the river and use his boat until things get better...bastard ;-)  He'll be the only sailboat on the Hudson for the foreseeable future 

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8 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

That doesn't support your original post stating no ventilator shortages, vents not being used, vents a red herring etc. You don't even mention virus demand and  ICU/vent admission ratios with age demographics and fatalities which is the heart of your claim. Fuck off you are a dickhead.

Sigh... i cited not one, but three articles that indicate ventilators have poor ultimate health outcomes.  

Ventilators were an easy thing for the media (and emotional laymen like you) to seize on  at the beginning of this, as some sort of magic bullet.  But the actual scientific evidence and data is showing that not to be the case.  

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36 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

Sigh... i cited not one, but three articles that indicate ventilators have poor ultimate health outcomes.  

Ventilators were an easy thing for the  media (and emotional laymen like you) to seize on  at the beginning  of this, as some sort of magic bullet.  But the actual scientific  evidence and data is showing that not to be the case .  

ETfVDc5WkAQj6VE.jpeg.4d7250c88d023ae578268576b67ad9ee.jpeg

You are a font of information. I could cite a trillion articles that will say vents have poor outcomes, so no magic bullet, but not 80% bad as you claim.

Your original post with that 80% figure you can't cite (because it is 2X wrong) was to underwrite saying.. we don't need ventilators ..so let them die.

You really are a gold rolled cunt.

10 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

Additionally, the much ballyhooed ventilator shortages is a red herring to some degree. To be callous... something like 80+% of those ventilated die anyway. It seems to mostly delay death. And most elderly placed on ventilators who recover have brain damage.

 

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59 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

You are a font of information. I could cite a trillion articles that will say vents have poor outcomes, so no magic bullet, but not 80% bad as you claim.

Your original post with that 80% figure you can't cite (because it is 2X wrong) was to underwrite saying.. we don't need ventilators ..so let them die.

You really are a gold rolled cunt.

 

Insulting me doesn’t change the medical research, outcomes for those on mechanical ventilators are very poor, with multiple indications of >80% mortality.

Chinese study: 

  1. For the primary outcome, among 52 critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, 32 (61·5%) patients had died at 28 days, and the median duration from ICU admission to death was 7 (IQR 3–11) days in the non-survivors (figure 2). Compared with survivors, non-survivors were more likely to develop ARDS (26 [81%] vs 9 [45%]) and were more likely to receive mechanical ventilation (30 [94%] vs 7 [35%]). 30 (81%) of 37 patients requiring mechanical ventilation had died by 28 days. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30079-5/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR1rjS0Q7FsWvBaOhVSOOuDFo4QVte7MoTJpMWhXMnvwO33I9P_dPJ3IMmI

New York City results (from Chicago Tribune):

I am not saying we should people die, I am saying that death, although tragic, is going to be inevitable for many older and unhealthy people and the sooner that we give up on this magical thinking that more ventilators will stop it, the better. What needs to happen is for the elderly to completely self isolate until better treatments are available. Your frantically panting about ventilator shortages gives the appearance of “doing something”, but isn’t changing outcomes by much at all.
 

 

 

 

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13 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

 Staying at home is not a solution, its just postponing the outcome by a few more weeks or months. 

We are imposing disproportionate and tyrannical costs on the poor, and the young — who are at very little risk — to protect people who are for the most part already quite unwell and have high chances of dying in next few years.

I don't know why this is so hard to figure out. The courageous americans that choose to be guinea bigs should organize the world's biggest chicken pox party and prove to the rest of us that it is not that bad.  Sealed quarantine and daily health monitoring for 30 days thereafter, prove to those libruls that god is stronger than some dopey flu.  Surely you are not too much of a limp dick to pull that off.

Who wants to be the first volunteer?

 

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2 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

Insulting me doesn’t change the medical research, outcomes for those on mechanical ventilators are very poor, with multiple indications of >80% mortality.

Insulting is by not following my hint to investigate further and you not doing so and continuing to bang on.

12 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Go do some research about why they are dying and desire to keep patients off vents. Hint start with ICU/vent training/expertise, staffing ratios and staff numbers off work isolating.

 

11 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

So now you’re a doctor too now?  

So Cont one last try to your 3 cites and that's it.

1. 8 April Chicago Tribune. 80% or more of NYC coronavirus patients placed on the machines have died, noting only unnamed NY officials cited.  This 80% was at the beginning before they knew more. The article even mentions physicians trying other measures first in advance of Vents. Also note my hint to you above which you ignored.

The answer is simple if you had bothered to look, or maybe you did but didn't like what you found. 

Relatively recent discovery that normal viral or bacterial infection of the lung behaves completely differently to Covid-19 and where blood supply in the lung is found to be severely impacted with Covid. 

Front Line Quote - "This is as different as Ebola is from an ingrown toenail. This is a very very different disease

Normally, a viral or bacterial infection  of the lung will cause it to fill with fluid and pussy tissue as a consequence of the infection. That isn't what happens with Covid-19 . What they are seeing is that there is something wrong with the blood vessels in the lung. Blood is arriving in the lungs full of CO2, then transiting to the arterial side with the same level of CO2. So a lot of the problem seems to be vascular . When they measure clotting in the blood, it's "off the scale abnormal". There are agents in the blood that break down clots that are at "stratospheric levels".  Intensive Care Specialist Professor Hugh Montgomery 7 April - London UK. (courtesy RobG copy)

Research - 3 April - COVID-19: A Comprehensive Pathophysiological Approach (link courtesy LeoV)

To conclude the above first seen in speed of deteriotion requiring ICU admissions, cyanosed and panting admissions, yet they're unaware they're unwell and high rate of heart failures even in recovery.

Rates of 50% (not 80%) vent recovery are now being achieved in the UK and elsewhere with this new knowledge. 

2. China data outdated ie up to 4 months old. See above.

3. Normal ventilated viral or bacterial infection data not relevant. See above. 

Now Cont having read the above compare to what you have posted with your very wrong >80% vent fatality rate concoction.

13 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

Additionally, the much ballyhooed ventilator shortages is a red herring to some degree. To be callous... something like 80+% of those ventilated die anyway. It seems to mostly delay death. And most elderly placed on ventilators who recover have brain damage.

 

2 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

I am not saying we should people die, I am saying that death, although tragic, is going to be inevitable for many older and unhealthy people and the sooner that we give up on this magical thinking that more ventilators will stop it, the better. What needs to happen is for the elderly to completely self isolate until better treatments are available

.....ventilator shortages gives the appearance of “doing something”, but isn’t changing  outcomes by much at all.

So Cont that is not you saying people should be left to die. Really?

You obviously aren't aware of age fatality rates and that current fatalities favouring the elderly is because many don't even get to a hospital, in some cases because there is no spare ICU capacity. Go look at the number of fatalities in the same nursing home. A dozen or more in a week convince you of that?

Then all this is based upon your incorrect number of vent fatalities of 80% (which is bizzare even if correct) and this mainly being a disease impacting only those with pre-conditions and or elderly. So in your mind ventilators are not a priority

Mate another tip. If you want to really piss someone off keep attributing things they have said which aren't true despite you being warned. I have said nothing about ventilator shortages other than copy your comments...and "frantically panting" ..well that says a lot about your empathy index for this subject if not already obvious.

2 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

Your frantically panting about ventilator shortages gives the appearance of “doing something”, but isn’t changing outcomes by much at all.

Cont I don't expect an apology as I really don't think that is your MO.

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No issue, but clubhouse has been shut down for a month.

All boat ramps are open. Beaches are open except for sunbathing and crowds over 10 people

Gov. said going out fishing is a good thing so I guess sailing would be ok.

Curve seems to getting flat.

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23 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Insulting is by not following my hint to investigate further and you not doing so and continuing to bang on.

 

So Cont one last try to your 3 cites and that's it.

1. 8 April Chicago Tribune. 80% or more of NYC coronavirus patients placed on the machines have died, noting only unnamed NY officials cited.  This 80% was at the beginning before they knew more. The article even mentions physicians trying other measures first in advance of Vents. Also note my hint to you above which you ignored.

The answer is simple if you had bothered to look, or maybe you did but didn't like what you found. 

Relatively recent discovery that normal viral or bacterial infection of the lung behaves completely differently to Covid-19 and where blood supply in the lung is found to be severely impacted with Covid. 

Front Line Quote - "This is as different as Ebola is from an ingrown toenail. This is a very very different disease

Normally, a viral or bacterial infection  of the lung will cause it to fill with fluid and pussy tissue as a consequence of the infection. That isn't what happens with Covid-19 . What they are seeing is that there is something wrong with the blood vessels in the lung. Blood is arriving in the lungs full of CO2, then transiting to the arterial side with the same level of CO2. So a lot of the problem seems to be vascular . When they measure clotting in the blood, it's "off the scale abnormal". There are agents in the blood that break down clots that are at "stratospheric levels".  Intensive Care Specialist Professor Hugh Montgomery 7 April - London UK. (courtesy RobG copy)

Research - 3 April - COVID-19: A Comprehensive Pathophysiological Approach (link courtesy LeoV)

To conclude the above first seen in speed of deteriotion requiring ICU admissions, cyanosed and panting admissions, yet they're unaware they're unwell and high rate of heart failures even in recovery.

Rates of 50% (not 80%) vent recovery are now being achieved in the UK and elsewhere with this new knowledge. 

2. China data outdated ie up to 4 months old. See above.

3. Normal ventilated viral or bacterial infection data not relevant. See above. 

Now Cont having read the above compare to what you have posted with your very wrong >80% vent fatality rate concoction.

 

So Cont that is not you saying people should be left to die. Really?

You obviously aren't aware of age fatality rates and that current fatalities favouring the elderly is because many don't even get to a hospital, in some cases because there is no spare ICU capacity. Go look at the number of fatalities in the same nursing home. A dozen or more in a week convince you of that?

Then all this is based upon your incorrect number of vent fatalities of 80% (which is bizzare even if correct) and this mainly being a disease impacting only those with pre-conditions and or elderly. So in your mind ventilators are not a priority

Mate another tip. If you want to really piss someone off keep attributing things they have said which aren't true despite you being warned. I have said nothing about ventilator shortages other than copy your comments...and "frantically panting" ..well that says a lot about your empathy index for this subject if not already obvious.

Cont I don't expect an apology as I really don't think that is your MO.

Really got under you skin with that data, didn’t I.  Now you are changing the subject to basically agree with me (that using ventilators to treat this like ordinary ARDS isn’t effective) and are “warning me”.  Lol

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Where the fuck have all these trolls and sock puppets appeared from?

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51 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

Really got under you skin with that data, didn’t I.  Now you are changing the subject to basically agree with me (that using ventilators to treat this like ordinary ARDS isn’t effective) and are “warning me”.  Lol

 

1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Cont I don't expect an apology as I really don't think that is your MO.

That aged well and I have lisp.

Read fuckstick, your data is regarded as shit by everyone, intubation/use vents now differently, fatality rate down, no subject change and I say nothing of the sort about agreeing with you. You conveniently now forget your "ventilator euthanasia plan", one you really should personally put to the test cunt. Lisp gone.

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3 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

I am not saying we should people die, I am saying that death, although tragic, is going to be inevitable for many older and unhealthy people and the sooner that we give up on this magical thinking that more ventilators will stop it, the better. What needs to happen is for the elderly to completely self isolate until better treatments are available. Your frantically panting about ventilator shortages gives the appearance of “doing something”, but isn’t changing outcomes by much at all.
 

 

 

 

This is actually true and many prudent older Americans (including my parents) are doing just that! They won't come out until the vaccine is available.

I already lost an older cousin in a nursing home yesterday. That is a recipe for deaths. There will be thousands upon thousands of deaths in nursing homes by the end of this and obviously only a small portion will survive it at those ages because most people in nursin homes have "underlying conditions."

Another friend came through the ICU in Connecticut. He's in his 60s but not an unhealthy person. Still scared the shit out of us. And him.

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Wow this thread is disgraceful - suggest you all find something more constructive to do. The nastiness and bitterness is really something

Hindsight is always 2020

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My marina is closed to public, I can check my boat and lines and we cant sail as NYS doesn't want to endanger our first responders in the event of problems.

I can deal with it, we are in April anyway so I will just suck it up...

 

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2 hours ago, pointbreak805 said:

Wow this thread is disgraceful - suggest you all find something more constructive to do. The nastiness and bitterness is really something

Hindsight is always 2020

Wait for when in a Middle Eastern or two and maybe one SE Asian country people will have two choices. They will either be dying from coronavirus or from starvation. Everyone will probably be quiet here then and off elsewhere being constructive to your satisfaction.

No hindsight. Some countries Pandemic Emergency Plans tested and failed years ago and reports went unheeded.  On the public record.

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19 hours ago, pointbreak805 said:

Wow this thread is disgraceful - suggest you all find something more constructive to do. The nastiness and bitterness is really something

Hindsight is always 2020

Hey Newbie, how about you fuck off somewhere else then.

I'm in the vulnerable age and I want to live a little longer and do some ocean sailing that has not been possible until I recently retired. I think folks like Blows and Controversial, and probably you, are the problem, not the solution. The solution is quite clear to everyone with half a brain. Self-isolate for your own protection and that of everyone else until we have a possible treatment and eventually a vaccine. Anything short of that is simply not acceptable to me, and clearly to the vast majority of other people and their governments, including all but a few folks who refuse to take this seriously until it affects them directly, like Boris. Just check out his stupid shaking of hands in a hospital when everyone was warning not to do that. Trump will finally take this seriously when he gets it too. As I wrote above, I nearly died of pneumonia about a decade ago and have no desire to die of this virus, and I wish that was true of everyone else. I don't feel I am disposable as Controversial would like me to be. And if I do get it and don't handle it well and end up in the ICU and need a ventilator for a last chance at living, I want it.

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27 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

Hey Newbie, how about you fuck off somewhere else then.

I'm in the vulnerable age and I want to live a little longer and do some ocean sailing that has not been possible until I recently retired. I think folks like Blows and Controversial, and probably you, are the problem, not the solution. The solution is quite clear to everyone with half a brain. Self-isolate for your own protection and that of everyone else until we have a possible treatment and eventually a vaccine. Anything short of that is simply not acceptable to me, and clearly to the vast majority of other people and their governments, including all but a few folks who refuse to take this seriously until it affects them directly, like Boris. Just check out his stupid shaking of hands in a hospital when everyone was warning not to do that. Trump will finally take this seriously when he gets it too. As I wrote above, I nearly died of pneumonia about a decade ago and have no desire to die of this virus, and I wish that was true of everyone else. I don't feel I am disposable as Controversial would like me to be. And if I do get it and don't handle it well and end up in the ICU and need a ventilator for a last chance at living, I want it.

I am sorry you are at risk, so am I potentially if a specific chronic condition is a contributing factor. But i am less likely to catch it if the 20-40 something crowd already got it and is now immune and won’t spread it to me. I can stay inside for a bit... until more of the lower risk population has had it. But we will all get it eventually if we’re homeless on the street. Just stating the cold hard truth of this.

we still don’t have a vaccine for SARS, 12 yrs later. Waiting indoors for 2 years or more, is not a solution, unfortunately. People who are telling you and I to just wait inside are lying, because they don’t know what else to do.

Also, if you want to do ocean sailing before you go, aren’t you furious that the government is taking away your ability to live your last dream? You’d rather die sick and isolated in a home, or doing what you love?

 

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