TheDragon

How has the coronavirus COVID-19 affected your sailing?

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On 4/21/2020 at 7:22 AM, Mambo Kings said:

Hmmm, a massage sounds like a really sensible way to maintain social distancing.

Can a governor even buy D&O insurance?  

"Qualified Immunity" means never having to pay malpractice insurance, however the small businesses that follow Kemp's order despite its violating the national guidelines will not be thusly protected from liability from exposing their customers.  Good luck Georgia small businesses.  Remember that listening to a kook doesn't shield you from hurting your customers just 'cause he was elected.

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On 4/21/2020 at 4:34 AM, Tharsheblows said:

Yes sir I was very wrong.  This barely looks like it is barely peaking now at 42K...maybe...which means the death toll is still at half?  Were looking at a  final death toll of 100k if we are lucky?

 

100k before the second wave

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43 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

100k before the second wave

What all the punters seem to have a hard time with is comparing to the flu. They just don't get it. They hear things (yesterday for instance--from a preliminary serological study out west) that it may have the same morbidity and mortality as flu.  But they don't understand that NATURAL IMMUNITY to the flu guarantees that only about 8% of the population will contract it.  What they seem to be incapable of doing is mental math: in the present case, there is no natural immunity so 100% of the population could catch it--even for equal M&M that gives over 12 TIMES the total deaths!

Now take that serological preliminary and do some wags. Let's be generous and take the upper limits of about 6% immunity right now. And let's say that the spreading of the disease slows to a trickle at 80% (not completely true but doable with strong public health work).  That would put 12X of our people dead at the end of every wave, assuming no evolution to less deadly, and palliative treatment does not improve. This would give about 45,000  X 12 = 540,000 deaths.

What we are dealing with is not the fucking flu.

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2 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

@jack_sparrow  still want to argue that I was wrong about the ventilators?  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/22/coronavirus-ventilators-survival/..

Argue with a brain dead lamp post??..but if you insist.

That cite changes nothing. You were wrong back whenever and I gave up arguing with you and your bat shit crazy narrative as you chased me around on various threads you moron. Now you are still chasing.

2 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

Anyone who knows anything about ventilators or normal health outcomes could have told you that ventilators were not a magic bullet...

..But you and others seized on this for political reasons, and here we are a month later with exactly the results we should have expected...

"Anyone who knows anything about ventilators  or normal health outcomes could have told you that ventilators were not a magic bullet.'

It seems you need a fucking reminder mate as you desperately try and reinvent history. 

1. You didn't know then and still don't know that there two forms of ventilation carried out in ICU's. What are they genius as you desperately Google?

2. I have NEVER said Ventilators are a MAGIC BULLET. That is your invention and totally inconsistent with my posts.

3. The ONLY VENTILTOR thing I challenged you on was your spurious and dated claim using a Chicago Trubune cite and two others that utilised DATED information including 3 month old Chinese data that YOUR 80% VENTILATOR MORTALITY RATE WAS SHIT. I GAVE FRONT LINE CITES IT IS AROUND 50% PLUS CLINICAL REASONS WHY YOU WERE TALKING SHIT.

TO REMIND YOU..my last attempt with you.

On 4/12/2020 at 2:55 AM, jack_sparrow said:

So Cont one last try to your 3 cites and that's it.

1. 8 April Chicago Tribune. 80% or more of NYC coronavirus patients placed on the machines have died, noting only unnamed NY officials cited.  This 80% was at the beginning before they knew more. The article even mentions physicians trying other measures first in advance of Vents. Also note my hint to you above which you ignored.

The answer is simple if you had bothered to look, or maybe you did but didn't like what you found. 

Relatively recent discovery that normal viral or bacterial infection of the lung behaves completely differently to Covid-19 and where blood supply in the lung is found to be severely impacted with Covid. 

Front Line Quote - "This is as different as Ebola is from an ingrown toenail. This is a very very different disease

Normally, a viral or bacterial infection  of the lung will cause it to fill with fluid and pussy tissue as a consequence of the infection. That isn't what happens with Covid-19 . What they are seeing is that there is something wrong with the blood vessels in the lung. Blood is arriving in the lungs full of CO2, then transiting to the arterial side with the same level of CO2. So a lot of the problem seems to be vascular . When they measure clotting in the blood, it's "off the scale abnormal". There are agents in the blood that break down clots that are at "stratospheric levels".  Intensive Care Specialist Professor Hugh Montgomery 7 April - London UK. (courtesy RobG copy)

Research - 3 April - COVID-19: A Comprehensive Pathophysiological Approach (link courtesy LeoV)

To conclude the above first seen in speed of deteriotion requiring ICU admissions, cyanosed and panting admissions, yet they're unaware they're unwell and high rate of heart failures even in recovery.

Rates of 50% (not 80%) vent recovery are now being achieved in the UK and elsewhere with this new knowledge. 

2. China data outdated ie up to 4 months old. See above.

3. Normal ventilated viral or bacterial infection data not relevant. See above. 

Now Cont having read the above compare to what you have posted with your very wrong >80% vent fatality rate concoction.

You say: "But you and others seized on this for political reasons,"

How in the fuck does me saying your 80% Ventilator Mortality Rate was shit and still is shit become fucking political??? You are fucking deranged.

Do I think the US virus response shambolic? Yes I do along with most of planet earth.

However what I do know is you are desperately trying to underwrite your own whack-job ideas and it seems a political narrative being:

- Hospitals are not overloaded and they are laying off staff.

- Ventilator shortages are a red herring.

- If any die it is only the fat and old so who cares. 

- Most of the country have already caught the virus but not noticed.

- This is just a bad flu.

So as I write this some 48,000 Americans have died (official, pundits say maybe double that) and you say they are mostly the old and fat and on the way out anyway. Like over 100 health care workers or nearly a 100 transport workers in NYC alone are just old or fat people by your narrative.

Cunt you really deserve to end up in a ICU gasping about your 80% ventilator theory as your take your last fucking breath hoping desperately my 50% is right.

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IMG_20200419_211717.jpg.59a6ba06c65d2b46750c4febd262b48e.jpg

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So ventilators save 20% of some those using them? How does that compare to, say, defibrillators? One can easily run off into the statistical weeds. Many here have.

Would someone please post the death rate of people tested for COVID-19? I want to know if I should avoid ever being tested. Seems like my survival odds plummet upon being swabbed...even before the results are known. Bizarre!

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no offense jack but your arguments are too scattered and disorganized to provide an actual argument.  You have great points, but you should work harder to make them coherent. 

 

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1 minute ago, MR.CLEAN said:

no offense jack but your arguments are too scattered and disorganized to provide an actual argument.  You have great points, but you should work harder to make them coherent. 

 

Though you gotta admit he's hitting that "enter" key with some regularity.

Cheers!

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1 minute ago, MR.CLEAN said:

no offense jack but your arguments are too scattered and disorganized to provide an actual argument.  You have great points, but you should work harder to make them coherent. 

 

True. But have a look at what I'm working with here..who is chasing me around every thread like an old women's shit.

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Just now, justsomeguy! said:

Though you gotta admit he's hitting that "enter" key with some regularity.

Cheers!

And another one.

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Just now, jack_sparrow said:

And another one.

I can see my exhortations have had some effect. Both you and Edmund are coming along swimmingly.

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3 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

True. But have a look at what I'm working with here..who is chasing me around every thread like an old women's shit.

Responding to trolls is a waste of your time and this site's space.  Make your points coherently to the people reading who aren't trolls or recognize that you are contributing to the noise and not the understanding.

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Just now, justsomeguy! said:

I can see my exhortations have had some effect. Both you and Edmund are coming along swimmingly.

You should join a Circus.

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2 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

Responding to trolls is a waste of your time and this site's space.

I avoid them usually but the ones that honestly believe what they are saying are dangerous cunts.

PS. Thanks for the tip.

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2 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

You should join a Circus.

You make the circus seem like a big deal. Why capitalize the word? :rolleyes:

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14 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

I avoid them usually but the ones that honestly believe what they are saying are dangerous cunts.

PS. Thanks for the tip.

based on my experience It is easy to devolve during some of these threads and arguments.  Normally smart, concise writers get sucked into the word salad and fallacious bullshit  of the usual suspects and start displaying some of those tendencies themselves. I have fallen down that well before, and it takes weeks go get out of it.  One's mind even gets effected. You must resist or you may become...Mike Wofsey!

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8 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

Normally smart, concise writers get sucked into the word salad 

I'm a word salad champion...online and real life method are hard to seperate.

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1 hour ago, El Boracho said:

So ventilators save 20% of some those using them?

NO. Caveat age/pre-conditions. "Non invasive" vents save nearly everyone, "invasive" vents now around 50% (not 20%) which is all you can hope for with a normal respiratory virus anyway, not this ugly bitch which weirdly attacks blood/O2 circulation via the lungs on route to the heart.

Hence COD lot of heart failure, even in recovery. Paramedics are seeing blood/O2 levels where people should be stone dead, but they aren't..well just shy.

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

NO. Caveat age/pre-conditions. "Non invasive" vents save nearly everyone, "invasive" vents now around 50% (not 20%) which is all you can hope for with a normal respiratory virus anyway, not this ugly bitch which weirdly attacks blood/O2 circulation via the lungs on route to the heart.

You are making stats up you old fool. Survival rate in NYC on “invasive ventilators” was 12%, not your rosy 50%. Feel free to cling to whatever makes you feel more secure but don’t mislead others.

PS also you are mixing me up with others in your rant above, I never said this was “a bad flu”.  It’s probably 10 times flue fatality rate for the elderly.

 

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5 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

You are making stats up you old  fool. Survival rate in NYC on “invasive ventilators” was 12%, not your rosy 50%. Feel free to cling to whatever makes you feel more secure but don’t mislead others.

"You are making stats up you old fool. .....but don’t mislead others."

OK Cont let's see who is making shit up and wants to spread their death cult message further.  

As you still can't put an authoritative cite to your >80% ventilator mortality horseshit, get one of your cult members to track one down. It must be from the period when the  cardiovascular/thrombotic/Covid characteristics attached to a large number of Covid cases became known as referred to in my cited posts in early April.

If not current don't bother posting out of date shit. There is also a world outside NYC so happy for any place you can find it.

Don't take too long as I would hate for people to think you are a lying culty cunt.

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57 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

"You are making stats up you old fool. .....but don’t mislead others."

OK Cont let's see who is making shit up and wants to spread their death cult message further.  

As you still can't put an authoritative cite to your >80% ventilator mortality horseshit, get one of your cult members to track one down. It must be from the period when the  cardiovascular/thrombotic/Covid characteristics attached to a large number of Covid cases became known as referred to in my cited posts in early April.

If not current don't bother posting out of date shit. There is also a world outside NYC so happy for any place you can find it.

Don't take too long as I would hate for people to think you are a lying culty cunt.

Here you go, published yesterday. Presenting Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Outcomes Among 5700 Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 in the New York City Area”  https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184

      “Mortality for those requiring mechanical ventilation was 88.1%.“

Really don’t understand why this is the hill you’re choosing to die on, my original argument was as a counterpoint to the then media hysteria about ventilators, because they are not the magic bullet portrayed. 

That’s not a “death cult” or “euthanasia” or any of your other nutjob emotional lash-outs. Just a science-based observation.

But  who am I kidding, you will never concede the science, just change the goalposts.  Just like a Trump you are...

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15 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

Here you go, published yesterday. Presenting Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Outcomes Among 5700 Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 in the New York City Area”  https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184

      “Mortality for those requiring mechanical ventilation was 88.1%.“

Really don’t understand why this is the hill you’re choosing to die on, my original argument was as a counterpoint to the then media hysteria about ventilators, because they are not the magic bullet portrayed. 

That’s not a “death cult” or “euthanasia” or any of your other nutjob emotional lash-outs. Just a science-based observation.

But  who am I kidding, you will never concede the science, just change the goalposts.  Just like a Trump you are...

Just published yes but go look at the timing of their data set. Already out of date.

Same goal posts since early April.

Keep looking dipshit.

1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

It must be from the period when the  cardiovascular/thrombotic/Covid characteristics attached to a large number of Covid cases became known as referred to in my cited posts in early April.

If not current don't bother posting out of date shit. There is also a world outside NYC so happy for any place you can find it.

 

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4 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Just published yes but go look at the timing of their data set. Already out of date.

Same goal posts since early April.

Keep looking dipshit.

 

Maybe you don’t understand how science works or maybe you are just being intellectually dishonest... But it takes time to analyze the data, you are not going to have 5700 results as of whenever @jack_sparrow sets his arbitrary date. This is the MOST CURRENT data set on COVID outcomes anywhere in the world.

Besides, your April 1st date is moot anyway, because you were rejecting my claim back in March (which based on a Chinese study from Feb that I provided to you.) 

I am afraid you are not capable of seeing past your fear and emotions (and politics), but you’ve just been dead wrong all along on the ventilator science.

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1 hour ago, Controversial_posts said:

Maybe you don’t understand how science works or maybe you are just being intellectually dishonest... But it takes time to analyze the data, you are not going to have 5700 results as of whenever @jack_sparrow sets his arbitrary date. This is the MOST CURRENT data set on COVID outcomes anywhere in the world.

"This is the MOST CURRENT data set on COVID outcomes anywhere in the world."

NO IT ISNT. You have posted a data set that predates others and frontline clinical investigation and thinking.

I have told you this on 12 April with cites but you continue to ignore it.

I even gave you link 2 hours ago and you ignore it.

2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

As you still can't put an authoritative cite to your >80% ventilator mortality horseshit, get one of your cult members to track one down. It must be from the period when the  cardiovascular/thrombotic/Covid characteristics attached to a large number of Covid cases became known as referred to in my cited posts in early April.

On 4/12/2020 at 2:55 AM, jack_sparrow said:

....Relatively recent discovery that normal viral or bacterial infection of the lung behaves completely differently to Covid-19 and where blood supply in the lung is found to be severely impacted with Covid. 

Front Line Quote - "This is as different as Ebola is from an ingrown toenail. This is a very very different disease

Normally, a viral or bacterial infection  of the lung will cause it to fill with fluid and pussy tissue as a consequence of the infection. That isn't what happens with Covid-19 . What they are seeing is that there is something wrong with the blood vessels in the lung. Blood is arriving in the lungs full of CO2, then transiting to the arterial side with the same level of CO2. So a lot of the problem seems to be vascular . When they measure clotting in the blood, it's "off the scale abnormal". There are agents in the blood that break down clots that are at "stratospheric levels".  Intensive Care Specialist Professor Hugh Montgomery 7 April - London UK. (courtesy RobG copy)

Research - 3 April - COVID-19: A Comprehensive Pathophysiological Approach (link courtesy LeoV)

To conclude the above first seen in speed of deteriotion requiring ICU admissions, cyanosed and panting admissions, yet they're unaware they're unwell and high rate of heart failures even in recovery.

Rates of 50% (not 80%) vent recovery are now being achieved in the UK and elsewhere with this new knowledge. 

 

1 hour ago, Controversial_posts said:

Besides, your April 1st date is moot anyway, because you were rejecting my claim back in March (which based on a Chinese study from Feb that I provided to you.) 

"your April 1st date is moot ...you were rejecting my claim back in March.." 

Really. I said early April and how do I reject you claim in March when the first time you made the claim was 11 April and which I rejected the same day seeking a cite that in 2 weeks you couldn't come up with?

On 4/11/2020 at 1:34 PM, Controversial_posts said:

....Also, our healthcare system is NOT overwhelmed. Many hospitals are laying off staff, in fact.  Additionally, the much ballyhooed ventilator shortages is a red herring to some degree. To be callous... something like 80+% of those ventilated die anyway. It seems to mostly delay death. And most elderly placed on ventilators who recover have brain damage...

 

On 4/11/2020 at 2:32 PM, jack_sparrow said:

I guarantee you can't put an authoritative cite to your 80% die on vents. So you pulled that out of your arse.

You should tell 90 year old Bill here your theory that he should be brain dead.

I know who is brain dead.

 

 

1 hour ago, Controversial_posts said:

I am afraid you are not capable of seeing past your fear and emotions (and politics), but you’ve just been dead wrong all along on the ventilator science.

You still can't support your claim using a cite based on contemporary data and clinical thinking. I did that 2 weeks ago.

You remain a lying dangerous cunt. Take your death cult shit and fuck off.

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On 4/23/2020 at 11:52 PM, jack_sparrow said:

You still can't support your claim using a cite based on contemporary data and clinical thinking. I did that 2 weeks ago.

I know I am beating a dead horse here, because you use the Trump rhetorical method of denying any contrary evidence and are not rooted in any consistent line of reasoning except to attack your critics...

But here’s YET ANOTHER report on the (comparative) ineffectiveness of conventional invasive ventilators vs alternatives - in this case high flow canola & proning.  https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/forefront/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/uchicago-medicine-doctors-see-truly-remarkable-success-using-ventilator-alternatives-to-treat-covid19?fbclid=IwAR1OIppjr7THo7uDYqI0njCeLqiiXtuVFK1znwk4WUoaAJUB5BHq5w16pfc

  • Mechanical ventilation – the most common treatment for these patients thus far – involves inserting a breathing tube into the windpipe so a ventilator can pump air into the lungs. Using a ventilator or intubation as a last resort – an approach UChicago Medicine teams call “prevent the vent” – helps get COVID-19 patients out of the hospital intensive care unit and prevents harmful side effects caused by ventilators, such as lung injuries.
  • “Avoiding intubation is key,” Spiegel said. “Most of our colleagues around the city are not doing this, but I sure wish other ERs would take a look at this technique closely.”


Anyways, go on back to your regular status of being a lonely loser...

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1 hour ago, Controversial_posts said:

I know I am beating a dead horse...

But here’s YET ANOTHER report on the (comparative) ineffectiveness of conventional invasive ventilators vs alternatives - in this case high flow canola & proning.

 https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/forefront/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/uchicago-medicine-doctors-see-truly-remarkable-success-using-ventilator-alternatives-to-treat-covid19?fbclid=IwAR1OIppjr7THo7uDYqI0njCeLqiiXtuVFK1znwk4WUoaAJUB5BHq5w16pfc

Yes you are still beating your dead horsey.

But you are gradually getting there after taking my suggestion to Google to find out there are two types of ventilation.

On 4/24/2020 at 1:22 AM, jack_sparrow said:

1. You didn't know then and still don't know that there two forms of ventilation carried out in ICU's. What are they genius as you desperately Google?

 

1 hour ago, Controversial_posts said:

Anyways, go on back to your regular status of being a lonely loser...

OK but you still have some work to do. Don't forgot your "mechanical" 80% mortality contemporary cite that is a couple of weeks overdue.

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We went out this evening for a casual sail.  My SO is a bit skittish about going out in the later hours of the day.  A couple of rum and cokes later, I just started up the boat and began untying the lines. 

This was our first evening cruise.  Probably wouldn't have happened if I wasn't bouncing off walls.

As the sun began to sink below the horizon we were coasting along under a half furled genoa and heading back home.  When we got close to the mouth of the channel, we furled the genny back in and the boat seemed to stop.

It's dark by now.  The speed shows 2.3 kn.  But it doesn't seem like we're moving. 

The depth says 7.8 ft.

But it doesn't seem like we're moving at all.

I turn the wheel and the bow turns on a dime.  Like we're on some sort of a pivot point.  Sonofabitch!  We're aground!  But the depth sounder says we're good.  And the charplotter has us in an area we've already been.

So I back off and begin to feel the boat move.  But it's weird.  Like we're really not moving, but looking at references on the shore, it looks like we are.  But we aren't.  We're over a mile from shore and we're still aground.

I back off some more.  A LOT more.  Probably several hundred feet.  And when the boat starts to feel right, I shift to forward.  Then we coast home.

I am so spoiled from sailing Lake Michigan all those years.  I think we ran aground maybe 2-3 times in thousands of miles sailed.  And those groundings were all up around the northern tip of the lake and into the North Channel. 

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Well, our local lake was opened to boating again today, maximum two people per boat, which is just fine for sailing here as all our boats are small, and for fishermen who generally go out two per boat, and of course suits us kiteboarders and windsurfers who go solo. But it will prevent the party boaters, which is fine with me anyway. So tomorrow I'm going kitesurfing despite the stay-at-home order, since that's hard to obey if you are going to drive an hour to a lake to go kiting!

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Maryland governor just announced boating will be allowed beginning tomorrow, 7May, at 7 am.

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It’s been cold and not very windy, so I did not get to the lake, but today the forecast was for 12-20 NW, which is one of two perfect directions on our little local lake for kiting. I’ve been kiting 15 years and foiling for three, and today I got my first few flying gybes, that is, staying up on the foil throughout a gybe and riding away. Took forever to get to this point, but then I am an old dog and learning new tricks is hard, so I am a happy camper. Tomorrow should be good too, and maybe even Friday, before next week gets even colder, damn, what happened to spring? Can’t think of anything better to do during our lockdown.

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