TheDragon

How has the coronavirus COVID-19 affected your sailing?

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11 minutes ago, El Boracho said:

It's truly painful and difficult and a huge personal sacrifice, but reducing alcohol ingestion is a great way to immediately strengthen the bodies resistance to infection. I got no cites on it though. Just seems like most of my bad colds have followed on the heels of some very satisfying drinking events.

Let me help:

Alcohol impairs the body's ability to fight off viral infection, study finds

Alcohol’s Effects on Immunity—Increasing the Risks for Infection and Injury

Alcohol Use As a Risk Factor in Infections

Numerous research studies have provided evidence that heavy alcohol use and alcohol abuse are risk factors that contribute to the burden of disease. Alcohol use, especially heavy alcohol use, affects a person’s susceptibility to infectious disease via both indirect direct and direct routes

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On 3/10/2020 at 2:41 PM, TheDragon said:

It seems inevitable we will have lots of cancelled events in the near future, but mostly wondering about individual decisions.

I'll start by saying that I'm headed down to Panama from Illinois on Saturday to continue work on my boat there, with a view to sailing away in mid-April. Requires two flights from Indy to Miami, then on to Panama, both a potential risk. But hopefully spread to Panama will take a while and I can sail away without catching this. I'm old enough to be concerned, albeit mostly healthy so hopefully would not be too serious.

Where are you headed from Panama?

We've not been affected on a daily basis yet, but if we don't sell our boat by May we need to leave NZ and start heading North. Countries are changing entry rules and requirements are moving daily. 99.9% of the requirements are aimed at people arriving by plane, which insures that 1) there will be a rule and 2) it will make little sense for people entering on a private sailing yacht. e.g. French Polynesia is requiring a "certificate" date no less than five days before departure from a doctor saying you don't have COVID-19. For now, they aren't applying it to boats, and most people arriving there have been at sea a couple of weeks. But there's no guarantee this won't turn into or be interpreted as some sort of mandate that impacts arriving yachts.

For now, our route isn't set. We're watching the news and the rules to see what's changing, to help for the best when we set out.

https://www.noonsite.com/news/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-special-procedures-being-introduced-in-ports-of-entry-worldwide/

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2 hours ago, El Boracho said:

I've done the Ensenada races. If you have social distance after the race you are doing it wrong.

Most times, I’ve done the Turn and Burn. Once had the boat at San Diego Yacht Club for 8:00am breakfast, and yes we Finished!  

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29 minutes ago, El Boracho said:

It's truly painful and difficult and a huge personal sacrifice, but reducing alcohol ingestion is a great way to immediately strengthen the bodies resistance to infection. I got no cites on it though. Just seems like most of my bad colds have followed on the heels of some very satisfying drinking events.

Now we have gone too far!!! That is pure insanity!

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15 hours ago, Tharsheblows said:

...   ...

THIS IS BULLSHIT

At this point we have no good evidence that that COVA-19 is "more contagious or virulent" than the flu.  The flu is quite contagious and virulent.

 

THIS IS ALSO BULLSHIT

We also know that as much as 80% of the "confirmed cases" of COVA-19 are mild which means (as I explained above) the quoted mortality rates are theoretical maximum rates and the true mortality rates are almost certainly much, much lower (just apply logic and math). 

...    ...

Reported numbers from other countries that are further into it have 5% mortality OF CONFIRMED CASES

Dead is fucking dead, no fancy test needed for that.

There are NO medically verifiable reports that "most people get mild symptoms". The COVID-19 virus destroys alveoli wall cells in your lungs. That's pretty serious shit.

There are MANY reports that the COVID-19 variant is more contagious by several different mechanisms. For example, infected people shed virus before shoing symptoms, thus before they realize they are sick. This has been verified independently by several different national health services. It travels further airborn, two days ago reports from several places of virus coming out of vents from negative-pressure isolation rooms. It lives longer on hard surfaces.

A few more, all available from CDC and WHO info for those that care enough to actually look

EDIT TO ADD- I've provided a couple of links in other posts, and may do so again when more verifiable useful info comes out. If yoou have good info to share, please provide a link. PLEASE DO NOT POST MORE MADE-UP BULLSHIT

- DSK

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3 hours ago, Lono said:

That description right there is what has me worried with regards to my sailing. If things don't settle down by June, it is not impossible for me to see an island like Bermuda deciding that the arrival of a bunch of knucklehead sailors going through very limited customs screening may not be in their best interest. Waking up to find the Bermuda Race cancelled would put quite a damper on this seasons sailing.

They will be accepting 100,000s of cruise and air tourists between now and then. Most from the East Coast. I don’t think they will care about 2000 yachties 

bigger worry is which of your  8-12 crewmates is contagious and dosesnt know it and you are hot bunking with them  for 5 days. I saw ads  today for 4-5 night cruises to Bermuda from NYC for $400 on Carnival and Royal Caribbean  

fla/Bahs for $269

 

 

 

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I posted this on the 2019-ncov thread over in GA. I add it here because I'm shocked at how much denial there is of the seriousness of this. This is the real deal. The nature of logistic growth is such that our actions can make very significant (orders of magnitude) differences in the peak number of active cases and the stress on our societies. See Grant Sanderson's 3blue1brown video above for an elegant overview of that. I've messed with the numbers. I'm sure others have to. They're pretty much GIGO, IMO. However, the folks who are getting reports from the front lines are horrified by what they are seeing. That's reality. Here's the WHO's Director General's take:

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020

"WHO has been assessing this outbreak around the clock and we are deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction.

...

We cannot say this loudly enough, or clearly enough, or often enough: all countries can still change the course of this pandemic.

If countries detect, test, treat, isolate, trace, and mobilize their people in the response, those with a handful of cases can prevent those cases becoming clusters, and those clusters becoming community transmission.

Even those countries with community transmission or large clusters can turn the tide on this virus. 

Several countries have demonstrated that this virus can be suppressed and controlled. 

The challenge for many countries who are now dealing with large clusters or community transmission is not whether they can do the same – it’s whether they will. 

..."

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7 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Reported numbers from other countries that are further into it have 5% mortality OF CONFIRMED CASES

Dead is fucking dead, no fancy test needed for that.

There are NO medically verifiable reports that "most people get mild symptoms". The COVID-19 virus destroys alveoli wall cells in your lungs. That's pretty serious shit.

There are MANY reports that the COVID-19 variant is more contagious by several different mechanisms. For example, infected people shed virus before shoing symptoms, thus before they realize they are sick. This has been verified independently by several different national health services. It travels further airborn, two days ago reports from several places of virus coming out of vents from negative-pressure isolation rooms. It lives longer on hard surfaces.

A few more, all available from CDC and WHO info for those that care enough to actually look

EDIT TO ADD- I've provided a couple of links in other posts, and may do so again when more verifiable useful info comes out. If yoou have good info to share, please provide a link. PLEASE DO NOT POST MORE MADE-UP BULLSHIT

- DSK

 

Nope, its is not bullshit, the World Health Organization confirmed that 80% of the cases are mild.  Here is a NPR article discussing that point.

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/17/806729340/new-world-health-organization-data-confirms-around-80-of-cases-are-mild

This is both good and bad.  The good is that many people who contact the virus will be not suffer severe symptoms, the bad is that many people will walk around not knowing they are infected and spread it to more people.

And as far as mortality rates.  The calculation is (those who died because of the virus) divided by (those who contracted the virus).  Given that many, many people have no symptoms for up to two week, 80% experience only mild symptoms so some may never figure out they have it, and testing is very limited, how do you suppose the proper denominator can be calculated accurately?  Its simple logic and math.  (for the math impaired, if the denominator goes up the morality rate goes down)

The 5% is mortality rate of "confirmed cases" which does not likely include many, many people who do not know they are infected.

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50 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Reported numbers from other countries that are further into it have 5% mortality OF CONFIRMED CASES

Dead is fucking dead, no fancy test needed for that.

There are NO medically verifiable reports that "most people get mild symptoms". The COVID-19 virus destroys alveoli wall cells in your lungs. That's pretty serious shit.

There are MANY reports that the COVID-19 variant is more contagious by several different mechanisms. For example, infected people shed virus before shoing symptoms, thus before they realize they are sick. This has been verified independently by several different national health services. It travels further airborn, two days ago reports from several places of virus coming out of vents from negative-pressure isolation rooms. It lives longer on hard surfaces.

A few more, all available from CDC and WHO info for those that care enough to actually look

EDIT TO ADD- I've provided a couple of links in other posts, and may do so again when more verifiable useful info comes out. If yoou have good info to share, please provide a link. PLEASE DO NOT POST MORE MADE-UP BULLSHIT

- DSK

With an emerging pandemic affecting different countries with different infrastructure and ability to respond its not completely surprising that data (and I mean data not as DSK says “made up shit”) varies.

No one expected the US to be one of the countries less equipped to respond but we all learn.

As to “There are NO medically verifiable reports that "most people get mild symptoms"...

That seems a factually wrong statement. The following study was cited up thread. The report is two weeks old so there may be other data to add. It is however based on the oldest largest set of data for covid 19

Researchers from China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention describe the clinical findings on more than 72,000 COVID-19 cases reported in mainland China, which reveal a case-fatality rate (CFR) of 2.3% and suggest most cases are mild, but the disease hits the elderly the hardest.

 

The study, published in JAMA, is the largest patient-based study on the novel coronavirus,  

 

...

 

A total of 81% of cases in the JAMA study were classified as mild, meaning they did not result in pneumonia or resulted in only mild pneumonia. Fourteen percent of cases were severe (marked by difficulty breathing), and 5% were critical (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction or failure).

 

That a minority of the patients are classed as sever or critical doesn’t change that it is clearly easily spread and has a meaningful fatality rate so should be taken very seriously.  

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38 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Reported numbers from other countries that are further into it have 5% mortality OF CONFIRMED CASES

Dead is fucking dead, no fancy test needed for that.

There are NO medically verifiable reports that "most people get mild symptoms". The COVID-19 virus destroys alveoli wall cells in your lungs. That's pretty serious shit.

There are MANY reports that the COVID-19 variant is more contagious by several different mechanisms. For example, infected people shed virus before shoing symptoms, thus before they realize they are sick. This has been verified independently by several different national health services. It travels further airborn, two days ago reports from several places of virus coming out of vents from negative-pressure isolation rooms. It lives longer on hard surfaces.

A few more, all available from CDC and WHO info for those that care enough to actually look

EDIT TO ADD- I've provided a couple of links in other posts, and may do so again when more verifiable useful info comes out. If yoou have good info to share, please provide a link. PLEASE DO NOT POST MORE MADE-UP BULLSHIT

- DSK

Here is the article from the World Health Organization.  I have copied the exact paragraph from article for those who will not read the whole thing.  Can we agree that the World Health Organization is sufficiently scientific? And that they have said that 80% of confirmed cases are mild?

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200301-sitrep-41-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=6768306d_2

"A majority of patients with COVID-19 are adults.  Among 44 672 patients in China with confirmed infection, 2.1% were below the age of 201.  The most commonly reported symptoms included fever, dry cough, and shortness of breath, and most patients (80%) experienced mild illness. Approximately 14% experienced severe disease and 5% were critically ill.  Early reports suggest that illness severity is associated with age (>60 years old) and co-morbid disease."  

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16 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

Here is the article from the World Health Organization.  I have copied the exact paragraph from article for those who will not read the whole thing.  Can we agree that the World Health Organization is sufficiently scientific? And that they have said that 80% of confirmed cases are mild?

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200301-sitrep-41-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=6768306d_2

"A majority of patients with COVID-19 are adults.  Among 44 672 patients in China with confirmed infection, 2.1% were below the age of 201.  The most commonly reported symptoms included fever, dry cough, and shortness of breath, and most patients (80%) experienced mild illness. Approximately 14% experienced severe disease and 5% were critically ill.  Early reports suggest that illness severity is associated with age (>60 years old) and co-morbid disease."  

I would have guessed that more than 2.1% were below the age of 201. No idea what your point is but please feel free to stop anytime.

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8 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

I would have guessed that more than 2.1% were below the age of 201. No idea what your point is but please feel free to stop anytime.

That was a copy paste error caused by the fact that there was a footnote 1 after the number 20.  But you would have known that if you read the article provided by the link.

My point was that what I had previously posted was factually correct.

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12 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

I would have guessed that more than 2.1% were below the age of 201. No idea what your point is but please feel free to stop anytime.

Do you suppose that number included a link to a note? 201

On the other hand, Tharsehblows arguing against current professional guidance using dated, preliminary reports seems like a really poor idea to me. 

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I just found it funny when I learned at work today that you can buy hand sanitizer in 55 gallon drums!

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33 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

Here is the article from the World Health Organization.  I have copied the exact paragraph from article for those who will not read the whole thing.  Can we agree that the World Health Organization is sufficiently scientific? And that they have said that 80% of confirmed cases are mild?

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200301-sitrep-41-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=6768306d_2

"A majority of patients with COVID-19 are adults.  Among 44 672 patients in China with confirmed infection, 2.1% were below the age of 201.  The most commonly reported symptoms included fever, dry cough, and shortness of breath, and most patients (80%) experienced mild illness. Approximately 14% experienced severe disease and 5% were critically ill.  Early reports suggest that illness severity is associated with age (>60 years old) and co-morbid disease."  

I think where you guys are getting tripped up is conflating "mild cases" with "asymptomatic."  The mild cases *are not* asymptomatic.

Both WHO and the CDC have definitely stated that "asymptomatic cases" appear to be very rare.  Not so with "mild cases."

There is a difference.

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I think the classifications are:

"mild" = symptomatic but not requiring oxygen (ie. sick to very sick people)

"severe" = requires oxgen

"critical" = requires ventilation

 

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29 minutes ago, weightless said:

Do you suppose that number included a link to a note? 201

On the other hand, Tharsehblows arguing against current professional guidance using dated, preliminary reports seems like a really poor idea to me. 

I'm not sure I'm arguing against current professional guidance, I'm citing professional stats.   As I stated in my first post, the resulting behaviors are the same.  Wash your hands more, etc...

My original point was just that every year the flu kills several thousand people and statistically you are much more likely to die from the flu.  This is a CDC supported fact as well.  Not that controversial.  (I also said the numbers of COVA-19 would almost certainly grow)

 

And as far as that World Health Organization article being a "preliminary report,"  does anyone have a more contemporary or comprehensive report that concludes the percentage of mild cases are different?

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☝
 
6 hours ago, Roller Skates said:



The fact that the entire world can change their work and travel habits on this, but not climate change, is arguably hilarious.
 

If I was feeling sardonic I'd say its because Covid affects Boomers a lot and climate change won't

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Just now, Tharsheblows said:

My original point was just that every year the flu kills several thousand people and statistically you are much more likely to die from the flu. 

I believe you should reassess your model using the current best understanding. eg. today Dr. Fauci testified on the thesis you propose:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/world/coronavirus-news.html

Dr. Fauci sought to rebut the claim — repeated often by President Trump — that the coronavirus was no worse than the flu or previous outbreaks, such as the H1N1 flu strain.

“People always say, ‘Well, the flu does this, the flu does that.’ The flu has a mortality of 0.1 percent. This has a mortality of 10 times that,” Dr. Fauci said.

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1 hour ago, Tharsheblows said:

 

Nope, its is not bullshit, the World Health Organization confirmed that 80% of the cases are mild.  Here is a NPR article discussing that point.

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/17/806729340/new-world-health-organization-data-confirms-around-80-of-cases-are-mild

This is both good and bad.  The good is that many people who contact the virus will be not suffer severe symptoms, the bad is that many people will walk around not knowing they are infected and spread it to more people.

And as far as mortality rates.  The calculation is (those who died because of the virus) divided by (those who contracted the virus).  Given that many, many people have no symptoms for up to two week, 80% experience only mild symptoms so some may never figure out they have it, and testing is very limited, how do you suppose the proper denominator can be calculated accurately?  Its simple logic and math.  (for the math impaired, if the denominator goes up the morality rate goes down)

The 5% is mortality rate of "confirmed cases" which does not likely include many, many people who do not know they are infected.

Thank you for the the link. I apologize for accsuing you of spreading that piece of made-up bullshit.

It's also not validated by any of the reports that I'm reading, however it's good to get any bit of good news.

Statistics are spun lots of ways, I just had an exchange with Wofsey who went off on some flight of mathematical fancy; that 5% I'm quoting is from Italy as of two days ago, and it is inclusive... not just the most at-risk group of patients who have a much higher rate.

- DSK

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5 minutes ago, weightless said:

I believe you should reassess your model using the current best understanding. eg. today Dr. Fauci testified on the thesis you propose:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/world/coronavirus-news.html

Dr. Fauci sought to rebut the claim — repeated often by President Trump — that the coronavirus was no worse than the flu or previous outbreaks, such as the H1N1 flu strain.

“People always say, ‘Well, the flu does this, the flu does that.’ The flu has a mortality of 0.1 percent. This has a mortality of 10 times that,” Dr. Fauci said.

Let me clarify,  I was not being political at all.  I will concede that you should never take medical advice from Trump (or any President without a medical degree for that matter).

 

But it is simply impossible to calculate the true mortality rate of a disease if you don't know how many people have it.  That is a necessary variable for the calculation.  The number of true cases is always a bigger number than the number of confirmed cases.  Which makes the true mortality rate lower than the mortality rate calculated based on confirmed cases.  Dr. Fauci would likely agree with that statement because its simple math and logic.

 

Also, it was not declared a pandemic because they decided it was more deadly or virulent.  They declared it a pandemic because it is now sufficiently widespread.  That doesn't contradict the previous report regarding the percentage of people that experience "mild symptoms."  (whatever the World Health Organization exactly meant when they chose those words)

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32 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Thank you for the the link. I apologize for accsuing you of spreading that piece of made-up bullshit.

It's also not validated by any of the reports that I'm reading, however it's good to get any bit of good news.

Statistics are spun lots of ways, I just had an exchange with Wofsey who went off on some flight of mathematical fancy; that 5% I'm quoting is from Italy as of two days ago, and it is inclusive... not just the most at-risk group of patients who have a much higher rate.

- DSK

There is no doubt the mortality rate of the "most at risk" groups is much higher...and I'm certainly not trying to say its not scary because ever a small mortality rate of the whole world is a lot of people!! (and it looks like it will likely spread to the whole world)

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29 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

But it is simply impossible to calculate the true mortality rate of a disease if you don't know how many people have it.  That is a necessary variable for the calculation.  The number of true cases is always a bigger number than the number of confirmed cases.  Which makes the true mortality rate lower than the mortality rate calculated based on confirmed cases.  Dr. Fauci would likely agree with that statement because its simple math and logic.

 

Also, it was not declared a pandemic because they decided it was more deadly or virulent.  They declared it a pandemic because it is now sufficiently widespread.  That doesn't contradict the previous report regarding the percentage of people that experience "mild symptoms."  (whatever the World Health Organization exactly meant when they chose those words)

Yes: Population >= cases > fatalities. So, fatalities/cases >= fatalities / population.

However, we are looking at poor data from a time series that is still in its early stages. We don't know what the final tally will be.

Of the Diamond Princess population currently around 20% have had "mild" cases and over 1% are dead, critical or severe. There are lots of confounding factors in that set but 1% population level fatality there isn't out of the question.

Italy just closed almost all businesses. They've shut the country down. They're looking at this in real time. What do you suppose they are seeing that would result in them taking that remarkable action?

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37 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

There is no doubt the mortality rate of the "most at risk" groups is much higher...and I'm certainly not trying to say its not scary because ever a small mortality rate of the whole world is a lot of people!! (and it looks like it will likely spread to the whole world)

Thanks for that captain Ahab,

Do not go too far in role play, Many has drowned, by pure realism, @mad
Mortality rate is not something to brawl about.

There is a significant chance ACWS Sardgena won't go though.

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A couple cases just got confirmed in the city I work in. Yippee. 

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6 minutes ago, Monkey said:

A couple cases just got confirmed in the city I work in. Yippee. 

It is confinement, imprissonment, we are not going in the finest of times.

 

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8 minutes ago, Schakel said:

It is confinement, imprissonment, we are not going in the finest of times.

 

What in the hell are you babbling about?

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On 3/10/2020 at 12:18 PM, Couta said:

If you're in reasonable shape (not immunocompromised)....the risk of anything serious is miniscule. 80% of those confirmed with it have only minor symptoms....no worse than a cold...fully recovered after 4 weeks. 15% have needed to see a Dr...with pulmonary complications (like a heavy flu). The remaining 5% have been hospitalised with some fatalities amongst those over 80 yrs (estimated at 1% or less). The hype around this virus is far more damaging than the disease itself....enjoy the sail!

 

The issue is not you. The issue is you infecting another person at risk.

My sister-in-law is a pediatrician in the States. She’s 35 years old and healthy. She is not concerned about herself. She is not really concerned about the vast majority of her patients, because they are kids.

She is concerned about the kid who she had last week who was infected. She couldn’t tell the difference between a cold, the flu, or Corona by exam. 

The kid infected the 75 year old grandma of another kid in the waiting room. She went back to her retirement village and infected 20 other old people before she died. And so on. 

That’s how this works. Currently, it’s 3.4% lethal in total population. Except is more or less only lethal to the elderly. 

This is a big fucking deal. The US is at serious risk, because they have a bunch of fucking idiots running the show. 

Not testing has put everyone in a position where they may be infected and then give it to a high risk person, who may have to be hospitalised or may in fact die.

Be safe. Order a double gin & tonic at the bar and wash your hands with it. 

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19 hours ago, LB 15 said:

Yeah pretty much - have been going in occasionally  to work but keeping well away from the staff and anyone else. Apart from that have been riding my bike very early each day and working on the boat and Hanging around at home like a tea towel. Our GP was not in the slightest bit interested in testing us when we first got back despite the fact that we had just spent 18 days in Milan and northern Italy and were all exhibiting flu symptoms! She Said the chances of us having it would be tiny. That was before they shut the whole friggin country down of course. My son tells me that everyone he knows in Milan is terrified. He said that all public places- normally teaming with people are deserted. 

Right or wrong, shit has got very real over there. 

You didn't have a meet-and-greet with Tom Hanks did you?

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7 hours ago, B.J. Porter said:

Where are you headed from Panama?

 

I signed up for the PPJ, but panic buying in Panama might be a problem for provisioning, and I might head up to Mexico instead and take a year coastal sailing first. A little concerned about family members spread around the US and what will happen here given the inept stupidly of our government. Right now just trying to avoid picking it up before and during the flights on Saturday. So far Panama doesn't seem too bad, but it could explode there too, obviously. I'm 64 and healthy, but you never know, folks a lot younger than me have ended up in hospital with this one.

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Top of the Gulf regatta in Thailand which was due to start on  May 1st has been rescheduled to next year. This is definitely affecting my sailing and my wallet as air fares and accommodation all paid for. Samui regatta is due to start at the end of May but no decision on that yet. The way things are shaping it may well be difficult or even impossible to either leave or get back in to the country without some form of testing and/or isolation anyway.

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10 hours ago, Tharsheblows said:

)But it is simply impossible to calculate the true mortality rate of a disease if you don't know how many people have it.  That is a necessary variable for the calculation.  The number of true cases is always a bigger number than the number of confirmed cases.  Which makes the true mortality rate lower than the mortality rate calculated based on confirmed cases.  Dr. Fauci would likely agree with that statement because its simple math and logic.

 

It is true that it's impossible to calculate a mortality rate if you don't know the denominator. But your statement above also makes the assumption that you know the true numerator - which we don't. There are certainly people dying who were not tested for SARS-Cov2 - these people are those with zero access to health care, or those with no families to take them to the Dr when they are sick. The old lady living alone upon whom no one checks, the guy living under the bridge, and pretty soon it will be the thousands of people who have no health insurance in the US... 

 

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. . .aaaaaaand the daughter just cancelled her flight, as she is now behind the COVID curtain in Germany.  Oh well.

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This is what we've said at our Sydney club ...

Covid 19 - Corona Virus - Precautions 

email-receipt.php?b=4466301&r=president@  ereceiptv2.php?b=4466301&r=president@hun

Dear Members & Friends

We just wanted to let you know that your Club is monitoring developments with the Covid 19 Corona Virus in terms of managing our Club activities in coming weeks and months. We are particulalry concerned by the potential for community transmission of the virus to occur, and are taking note of both the Government advices and those in our respective corporate environments.

In particular, we ask that members adopt the following protocols with respect to their own health, and those of our community:

  • clean your hands for at least 20 seconds with soap and water, or use an alcohol-based sanitiser with at least 60% alcohol.
  • cover your sneeze or cough with your elbow or with tissue.
  • refrain from shaking hands, high fiving or fist bumping or the like
  • avoid close contact with people who are ill
  • avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth
  • stay home if you are sick.

If a member of your family has travelled to a "high risk" country (Iran, Italy, South Korea or Mainland China), please follow the protocols as set out on the NSW Health Department website, namely:

If you have been in, departed from, or transited through a higher risk country in the last 14 days, you should:

  • self isolate yourself from others for 14 days from the day you departed the affected country
    and
  • monitor yourself for symptoms

If you develop a fever or respiratory symptoms, please:

  • call your doctor or healthdirect on 1800 022 222. When you call, tell them where you have travelled or if you have been in contact with a confirmed case.
    or (if your symptoms are severe)
  • visit your local Emergency Department. When you arrive, immediately tell staff where you have travelled or if you have been in contact with a confirmed case.

If you have symptoms it is important that don’t go to work, school/university/childcare, the gym, or public areas, and you should not use public transport, taxis, or ride-sharing services. If you need to seek medical care wear a surgical mask if available when attending. You should not use public transport, taxis, or ride-sharing services to get to your doctor or emergency department. 

If this is your situation, please do not attend the Sailing Club as a participant or parent, and do not allow your children to attend. 

 

Turning to particular events coming up in our Calendar.

Club Racing & Learn2Sail & High School Sailing until the end of the season - monitoring guidance from Authorities.

At this stage we will continue to run our regular Sunday Learn2Sail and Club racing activities.  If there is a general closing down of the school system before the end of Term 1 then we will be unlikely to continue to offer Club activities.

Please do assist us with managing these activities safely by observing the protocols outlined above.

April School Holiday Learn2Sail Camp - Likely to be Cancelled

We are conscious that many families enjoy this camp not just for the sailing, but for the convenience of the extended hours of the session to allow parents to work through, or attend to other children.  It is highly likely that we will be cancelling this April's Learn2Sail Camp, and parents should be considering their child care arrangements for that period.

May 2 Comedy Night - Cancelled.

Last week we announced we would be holding a Comedy Night at the Club as a fund raiser.  Unfortunately, we have had to cancel that event. We will look to reinstate the event once the Virus situation settles down.

AGM & Trophy Night - monitoring guidance from Authorities. 

If we are unable to hold a physical gathering, our AGM may be held in a virtual environment in accordance with our Constitution and statutory requirements. We will let you know in good time if this step is required.

The Trophy Night is on "amber" status at this time, and we will let you know in good time if that event is to continue as scheduled.

 

Please discuss this issue with your children, and adopt a prudently cautious and conservative approach to the management of the health of your family, and that of our sailing community, and the community at large.  If you have any queries or wish to discuss this issue, please do not hesitate to contact us.

 

Please stay safe folks.  This is truly "not a drill".

Regards

Chris Stannage, President HHSC.

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So, how soon do other countries ban travelers from the US? My wife is supposed to join me in April to go through the canal, but I don't want to purchase a ticket for her yet as I'm not sure if other countries will ban flights from the US, now that the US has set the precedent by banning Europeans from flying to the US, let alone Chinese. At this point it would make sense for China to ban travelers from the US given they have cut transmission to near zero while the US is ramping up transmission at exponential rates. I'm still set to fly to Panama on Saturday, but doubts are creeping in.

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Its amazing to me that anyone would believe anything that China says  

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7 hours ago, DrWatson said:

It is true that it's impossible to calculate a mortality rate if you don't know the denominator. But your statement above also makes the assumption that you know the true numerator - which we don't. There are certainly people dying who were not tested for SARS-Cov2 - these people are those with zero access to health care, or those with no families to take them to the Dr when they are sick. The old lady living alone upon whom no one checks, the guy living under the bridge, and pretty soon it will be the thousands of people who have no health insurance in the US... 

 

Yes, very true.  

Possibly even some who did seek healthcare but were not tested (because tests were unavailable or just not used) 

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15 hours ago, Tharsheblows said:

So much for any European sailing trips in the next 30 days!

or ski trips...

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Sailing has not been affected as it is still winter here. But any thoughts I might have had about moving to a newer boat are gone as my play money was in the market.

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Well J22 midwinters just got called off.
Won't stop me road-tripping to do something fun, but yeah, looks like things finally dropped last night.
 

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Sunfish Midwinters, International Masters and Team Race all to be in Clearwater = CANCELLED

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The first stop on the J/24 Texas Circuit was planned for Austin Yacht Club this weekend. *Was*. It has been postponed indefinitely.

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No dragon racing the end of this month in the Netherlands due to the virus... 

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Seeing regattas being cancelled. How about monthly yacht club meetings ?

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You can really tell who are the dipshits during these sort of events - I’m not even over 65, never smoked or have chronic respiratory stress - my parents are both gone, but I have neighbors and friends and have a generalized concern for the well-being of others. 
 

Then there’s the dipshit goes flying Jet Blue while waiting the results and gets tested positive. 

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I was listening to Michael Osterholm discuss corona virus on a Joe Rogan Podcast. 

He said two things that caught my attention: 1) he predicted that this outbreak will be worse than a very bad flu season (sure hope hes wrong), and 2) at about 43:30 he discusses washing you hands.  He said keep doing it but it really doesn't matter that much because transmission is primarily due to just breathing (great were all screwed, lol!)

 

 

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Washing your hands is a good idea because there seem to be two strains, or one strain and two routes of infection.

The worst C19 cases give negative oral tests, but show up on CT scans. It is thought that these cases may come from ingested food. If so, then washing hands is important and avoiding buffets and other shared food may save your life.

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6 minutes ago, apophenia said:

Washing your hands is a good idea because there seem to be two strains, or one strain and two routes of infection.

The worst C19 cases give negative oral tests, but show up on CT scans. It is thought that these cases may come from ingested food. If so, then washing hands is important and avoiding buffets and other shared food may save your life.

You mean like cruise ship all you can eats?

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3 hours ago, dacapo said:

Seeing regattas being cancelled. How about monthly yacht club meetings ?

We cancelled ours.

Also schools have cancelled extracurricular activities, so no sailing program. Kind of a shame, things were getting going nicely.

http://nbnjrotc-sail.blogspot.com/

FB- Doug

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Currently in Sint Maarten after Heineken Regatta. Not planning to leave before the end of the month when we head to Antigua. Next event is Antigua Sailing Week the end of April. 

Superyacht regatta currently underway, Classic regatta the beginning of April. Crew for these events coming in from multiple European countries in addition to the States, SA, NZL, AUS. 

Way to many potential transmission vectors for my liking. 

Then there is the challenge of finding crew to deliver back to the states (insurance requirements) by mid June. Don't think I'll find many who are willing to self quarentine before we depart. 

The thought of crew getting sick 5 days into the delivery makes me nervous. 

So ya, it has a major impact. Thankfully I've got 2+ weeks to see how this plays out before I have to make any hard decisions.

Cruise ships passengers don't typically get to Simpson Bay, I've got plenty of projects, so I should be fine for now. And it sounds like those virus incubators may be shutting down soon in these parts. 

If I have to self quarentine, I can think of worse places. 

 

 

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40 minutes ago, MaxHeadroom said:

Currently in Sint Maarten after Heineken Regatta. Not planning to leave before the end of the month when we head to Antigua. Next event is Antigua Sailing Week the end of April. 

Superyacht regatta currently underway, Classic regatta the beginning of April. Crew for these events coming in from multiple European countries in addition to the States, SA, NZL, AUS. 

Way to many potential transmission vectors for my liking. 

Then there is the challenge of finding crew to deliver back to the states (insurance requirements) by mid June. Don't think I'll find many who are willing to self quarentine before we depart. 

The thought of crew getting sick 5 days into the delivery makes me nervous. 

So ya, it has a major impact. Thankfully I've got 2+ weeks to see how this plays out before I have to make any hard decisions.

Cruise ships passengers don't typically get to Simpson Bay, I've got plenty of projects, so I should be fine for now. And it sounds like those virus incubators may be shutting down soon in these parts. 

If I have to self quarentine, I can think of worse places. 

 

 

But according to Rich People Scuttlebutt, all the crew fly on Part 135 chartered jets...missing airports entirely...(/s)

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Fairhope Yacht Club just shitcanned next weekend. O well.  Guess got mo better things the driving 2000 miles.

 

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3 hours ago, fastyacht said:

You mean like cruise ship all you can eats?

Everyone is terrified of cruise ships right now, so they are the safest place to be. Book a two week long trip departing this weekend and each passenger can probably have their own buffet.

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Bermuda Race sent a reassuring letter to people on the race email list this afternoon. Still on!! Something to look forward to. 

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I read that the UK has performed some 38,000 tests, population 60M?

Switzerland  has performed about the same number of tests, pop. ~8M,

Can't find those references anywhere (haven't looked again) so you may need to take that with a grain of salt, but still

Will be interesting to see how the numbers play out regarding death rates in each country...

 

 

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39 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

The UK is in full "fuck it, we'll be alright" mode.

 

Gotta keep them football fans entertained.. even the players and coaches have the bug.. but surely no one in the crowd.. and there's no chance some fans brought it from Madrid to Liverpool, seeing as Madrid is hardly touched by the covid19 :blink:

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

The UK is in full "fuck it, we'll be alright" mode.

ES-UxEDWkAYHQiO.jpeg

The UK health service believe that the public have a limited period over which they'll stop activities before they get bored and go back to what they want to do. As a result they're postponing the evitable shut down to the point it will be most effective.

Football is cancelled. The 150 kid oppie open is cancelled. Our local club open is still on.

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11 hours ago, fastyacht said:

But according to Rich People Scuttlebutt, all the crew fly on Part 135 chartered jets...missing airports entirely...(/s)

The merely rich travel Part 135.  The truly rich travel Part 91.  

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20 minutes ago, Student_Driver said:

The merely rich travel Part 135.  The truly rich travel Part 91.  

Or just an aviation junkie.

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We have a Jeanneau 429 booked (and paid for) for a week in Vallarta on the 25th.... not sure how that's going to turn out.

Certainly there are those with bigger problems!  Stay healthy everyone!  

Something like 40% of Americans cannot withstand an unexpected economic shock of $400.  That's <3 days of missed work at $20/hr.  We are very fragile.

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I expect Charleston to cancel in the next few days. 

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20 hours ago, dacapo said:

Seeing regattas being cancelled. How about monthly yacht club meetings ?

Most local clubs have cancelled monthly yacht club meetings and numerous other activities but have not yet mitigated membership dues to reflect the reduced value of service.

Following is copy of a letter that I sent to Board of Directors:

Good morning, Xxxxx

Given the fact that Corona Virus Pandemic has been declared a National Emergency, and that XXXX member activities are likely to be severely curtailed, the Board of Directors should consider mitigating payment of 2020 membership dues. 
 
If not, consider the fact that many members will chose not to renew because the benefits received are no longer commensurate to the cost of membership.
 
Attached is XXXX Form 990 which confirms that the XXXX financial reserves would make my proposal not only feasible but also the right thing for the Board of Directors to do immediately.
 
With kindest regards,
Xxxxxx

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On 3/12/2020 at 12:51 PM, CaptainAhab said:

The issue is not you. The issue is you infecting another person at risk.

My sister-in-law is a pediatrician in the States. She’s 35 years old and healthy. She is not concerned about herself. She is not really concerned about the vast majority of her patients, because they are kids.

She is concerned about the kid who she had last week who was infected. She couldn’t tell the difference between a cold, the flu, or Corona by exam. 

The kid infected the 75 year old grandma of another kid in the waiting room. She went back to her retirement village and infected 20 other old people before she died. And so on. 

That’s how this works. Currently, it’s 3.4% lethal in total population. Except is more or less only lethal to the elderly. 

This is a big fucking deal. The US is at serious risk, because they have a bunch of fucking idiots running the show. 

Not testing has put everyone in a position where they may be infected and then give it to a high risk person, who may have to be hospitalised or may in fact die.

Be safe. Order a double gin & tonic at the bar and wash your hands with it. 

We have just returned from a 3 week family holiday in northern Italy. My son has been at university in Milan for the past year. One of his housemates is a 26 year old super fit young guy who has never smoked a cigarette in his life. Right now he is in a Milan hospital fighting for his life. Naturally the elderly and those that are already sick are at greater risk but if you think you are safe because you are not in that group you have your head up your arse. And yes we have all been tested and are clear.

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1 hour ago, LB 15 said:

We have just returned from a 3 week family holiday in northern Italy. My son has been at university in Milan for the past year. One of his housemates is a 26 year old super fit young guy who has never smoked a cigarette in his life. Right now he is in a Milan hospital fighting for his life. Naturally the elderly and those that are already sick are at greater risk but if you think you are safe because you are not in that group you have your head up your arse. And yes we have all been tested and are clear.

A 22 year old Korean olympic athlete died.

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32 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

A 22 year old Korean olympic athlete died.

I wonder how much of the very high fatality rate in the older population was driven by triage rules in the areas where the system was overwhelmed. I think the data so far shows that this is more dangerous than the flu for all ages except young children. No?

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1 minute ago, weightless said:

I wonder how much of the very high fatality rate in the older population was driven by triage rules in the areas where the system was overwhelmed. I think the data so far shows that this is more dangerous than the flu for all ages except young children. No?

Fauci talks about it. Significant increase in danger as you get older or you have certain underlying issues.

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The virus has already changed my world. My sailboat now will become my getaway which i usually reserve for foreign vacations or luxury bike rides. With less work to do and billing which goes with it, it makes the 30' boat a more interesting, dollar per smile mile prospect other than racing. It is like rolling back in time,  quality life will become more water oriented with weekend cruises and all day sails to look for whales like we knew in the late 60s and early 70s.

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2 hours ago, LB 15 said:

We have just returned from a 3 week family holiday in northern Italy. My son has been at university in Milan for the past year. One of his housemates is a 26 year old super fit young guy who has never smoked a cigarette in his life. Right now he is in a Milan hospital fighting for his life. Naturally the elderly and those that are already sick are at greater risk but if you think you are safe because you are not in that group you have your head up your arse. And yes we have all been tested and are clear.

hope you and the rest of your family is good............

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IF anyone needs a ride from seattle area to midwest, lemme know.  Wife just rented me a car and told me if i fly home I have to stay in an airbnb for 14 days lol.

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2 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

Fauci talks about it. Significant increase in danger as you get older or you have certain underlying issues.

Yes, it's also discussed in the WHO report on China which I think was Facui's source. However, increase in danger for older folk or folk with underlying issues is also true for flu. The age related risk curve is "bath tub" shaped for flu. Surprisingly, for ncov it is exponential shaped. The left hand part of the graph doesn't show elevated risk as expected. I think that difference may be just for younger children (ie. before puberty). For other age groups the graphs seem to have a similar shape. I need to look for better data. From what I've seen I think the risk for 20 yr olds and 40 yr olds is elevated about the same order of magnitude comparing flu and ncov. It goes off the charts for the very old. Which is why I suspect that rationing of resources might have had an impact. To be clear, I don't know. I'm asking if I'm seeing this correctly.

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4 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

IF anyone needs a ride from seattle area to midwest, lemme know.  Wife just rented me a car and told me if i fly home I have to stay in an airbnb for 14 days lol.

You flew this week to Seattle, the biggest hotspot in the country, with a bandana on your Schnozz and you think someone wants to spend 3 days in a car with you? What a maroon! 

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1 hour ago, fastyacht said:

A 22 year old Korean olympic athlete died.

Ping pong?

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1 minute ago, Cristoforo said:

 you think someone wants to spend 3 days in a car with you? 

3 days?  What are you fucking 90 years old?  

I don't think anything.  I asked if anyone needed a ride.  Try being helpful and generous sometime, it'll make your life less bitter.

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3 minutes ago, Cristoforo said:

Ping pong?

I know you think that is funny but I am not laughing.

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10 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

3 days?  What are you fucking 90 years old?  

I don't think anything.  I asked if anyone needed a ride.  Try being helpful and generous sometime, it'll make your life less bitter.

Yeah I’m closer to 90 than 30. We stop a lot to piss and have a scotch and a steak now. My days of pissing only at fillups are over. 

Last nonstop overnight nonstop drive was on September 11, 2001 from Atlanta to NY 

What did she get you? A Smart Car?

Lots of great things to see hope you can stop and report on some roadside attractions! Pics or it didn’t happen! 

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