TheDragon

How has the coronavirus COVID-19 affected your sailing?

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2 hours ago, Bump-n-Grind said:

so far just the cancellation of the Safety at Sea seminar at the USNA.

 I suspect the Annapolis 2 Bermuda  race is now in jeopardy as well.. but, too soon to tell...

A2B isn’t until June, no reason to cancel now.  it seems likely it’ll have either burned through the population or been contained by then. 

If this isn’t under control by then, society will just have to accept everyone is going to get it and move on. Because we can’t shut down indefinitely.

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5 hours ago, green03 said:

A lot of good stuff has been written on the fact the denominator isn't known for the mortality rate, because only confirmed cases can be factored in.

But, you know what, in exponential growth it does not matter. The daily percentage increase in deaths is not dependent on the mortality rate being known, because it would be the same whether these deaths were due to high mortality for a small base of infections, or lower mortality rate, for a larger base.

Currently the daily increase is about 33%. That seems to be the same for all countries with uncontained/unrestrained exposure. That means, the absolute number of deaths will grow at that rate, which comes to a factor of 10 every so many days (less than two weeks). After another equally short period, you have a total factor of 100. -- as long as the social distancing and whatever do not result in a lasting change in that daily increase (or until the virus runs out of population altogether).

The same goes for the number of severe cases that do need care but don't result in death. We don't need to know the rate per infection to know that the absolute numbers will grow exponentially and if they are today twice as many as the deaths, they will continue to be twice as many when there are more deaths.

So, really, to see when the health care system will be overwhelmed, you only need to know how many cases of a given severity there were yesterday, and how many there are today. Then run the growth curve forward.

If testing cannot be deployed at a scale where it can change people's behavior in time (isolation/quarantine) knowing the real number of mild(er) cases won't help with the hard problem. The only "benefit" of a large halo of milder cases is that the virus will run out of infectable population a bit sooner -- the likely ranges for those estimates won't make a difference if we continue to have a growth curve with 33% daily increase -- given the likely range of these estimates, that total number will have more severe cases than we can handle / could handle, even with a perfect health care system.

That's about all we need to know about knowing the denominator: it's looking rather academic.

 

You make some very good points.  Let’s take a more optimistic look at the potential damage without discussing numerators and denominators.
 

It seems like the graphs of the identified cases in each country follow a very similar curve after the initial outbreak occurs (with the exception of a few countries that seem to have contained the virus even better than most). 
 

The great news is that the curves do not seem to continue in an exponential manner.  At some point the rate of spread seems to level off in each country in which we have data.  I’m not sure we entirely know why this is happening.
 

One possibility is that after the outbreak each country starts to implement quarantines and social distancing practices OR another possibility is that after many people get the virus the various localities run out of unexposed people (the large halo of milder cases argument)
 

I tend to doubt that the leveling is all because of quarantines and social distancing practices because the graph of cases in China started leveling in mid-February during which time many infected individuals were traveling all around the globe spreading the virus to another 100 or so countries.  (So the quarantines and social distancing practices could not have been that good)

If the leveling off stays leveled off and does not return to an exponential growth rate then the casualty numbers from this virus may be less than the previous predictions.

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12 hours ago, fastyacht said:

There's nothing more fun than thundering along a country road at 100 MPH in a convertible with a sneezing girlfriend riding shotgun with a loaded M1 carbine.

You forgot the pint of raw ether.

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44 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

  I’m not sure we entirely know why this is happening..

One possibility can be that as containment is abandoned, testing strategy changes. You are no longer testing, to track the virus and stop it spreading, you accept that's it's spread in the society, and only test the most severe cases where hospitalization is needed.

Milder infected, with flu like symptoms, are not diagnosed. Whilst they presumably have covid19, they're not tested and therefore not in the statistics.

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18 minutes ago, bplipschitz said:

You forgot the pint of raw ether.

A pint is an awful lot of ether. I suggest just a couple of ounces, down in the bottom of a bigger jar. Less likely to spill

- DSK

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47 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

A pint is an awful lot of ether. I suggest just a couple of ounces, down in the bottom of a bigger jar. Less likely to spill

- DSK

When you are thundering down a country lane at 160 kmh with a sneezing girlfriend riding shot gun with a carbine in one hand and a pint of ether in the other, you are going big and not going home.

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5 minutes ago, fastyacht said:
52 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

A pint is an awful lot of ether. I suggest just a couple of ounces, down in the bottom of a bigger jar. Less likely to spill

 

When you are thundering down a country lane at 160 kmh with a sneezing girlfriend riding shot gun with a carbine in one hand and a pint of ether in the other, you are going big and not going home.

Agree

I just hate to think of wasting that much ether  ...   :D

- DSK

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AFAIK, Frostbite race is on tomorrow, although the head of the crash boat crew told an elderly boat operator to stay home.  Went to a happy hour at a friends house last night.  There were a couple dozen regulars from the Friday night Black Seal crowd, which is closed to repair fire damage, and there was no hand shaking, or cheek kisses, just elbow bumps and air kisses..

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2 hours ago, Couta said:

 

 

 

Awesome!!  Thanks mate!

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19 hours ago, LB 15 said:

We have just returned from a 3 week family holiday in northern Italy. My son has been at university in Milan for the past year. One of his housemates is a 26 year old super fit young guy who has never smoked a cigarette in his life. Right now he is in a Milan hospital fighting for his life. Naturally the elderly and those that are already sick are at greater risk but if you think you are safe because you are not in that group you have your head up your arse. And yes we have all been tested and are clear.

LB. Mortality stats are on his side.

Note: One caveats before extrapolating elsewhere is Italy has oldest age demographic in Europe (so high other pre conditions) and around average hospital bed numbers/1000 (but higher than US and UK).

Italian National Health Institute data from 12/3 show mortality among confirmed cases thus:

age 0-29: 0%
30-49: 0.1%
50-59: 0.6%
60-69: 2.7%
70-79: 9.6%
80-89: 16.6%
90+: 19%

88% of the deceased are age 70+. 
Confirmed infections have a median age of 64 and are 60% male.

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1 hour ago, Steam Flyer said:

Agree

I just hate to think of wasting that much ether  ...   :D

- DSK

For some reason I'm thinking of a John Barth novel now.

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20 hours ago, marcus brutus said:

Most local clubs have cancelled monthly yacht club meetings and numerous other activities but have not yet mitigated membership dues to reflect the reduced value of service.

Following is copy of a letter that I sent to Board of Directors:

Good morning, Xxxxx

Given the fact that Corona Virus Pandemic has been declared a National Emergency, and that XXXX member activities are likely to be severely curtailed, the Board of Directors should consider mitigating payment of 2020 membership dues. 
 
If not, consider the fact that many members will chose not to renew because the benefits received are no longer commensurate to the cost of membership.
 
Attached is XXXX Form 990 which confirms that the XXXX financial reserves would make my proposal not only feasible but also the right thing for the Board of Directors to do immediately.
 
With kindest regards,
Xxxxxx

an alternative or additional use for those financial reserves would be to continue to employ the staff who would normally be employed...many of whom would find the loss of income much more painful than the members will find the loss of club services.

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17 hours ago, weightless said:

I wonder how much of the very high fatality rate in the older population was driven by triage rules in the areas where the system was overwhelmed. I think the data so far shows that this is more dangerous than the flu for all ages except young children. No?

I'm no expert but have been following this. It looked like the fatality rates been relatively steady.  If so then triage probably not a factor as the earlier cases would have hit the health systems before capacity constraints....BUT...triage is likely coming to most countries in the world especially the US where absence of tests has made tracking difficult and UK with the "take it on the chin/herd immunity strategy".

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16 hours ago, fastyacht said:

There's nothing more fun than thundering along a country road at 100 MPH in a convertible with a sneezing girlfriend riding shotgun with a loaded M1 carbine.

A Hunter S Thompson disciple.

You will no doubt be at the wheel of the "Red Shark"

red_shark_ss_1_1533774242443_94489530_ve

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58 minutes ago, KC375 said:

A Hunter S Thompson disciple.

You will no doubt be at the wheel of the "Red Shark"

red_shark_ss_1_1533774242443_94489530_ve

They were really courting unspeakable disaster, driving that rag-top thru giant bat territory

I've never read John Barth, will have to give it a try

FB- Doug

 

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7 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

They were really courting unspeakable disaster, driving that rag-top thru giant bat territory

I've never read John Barth, will have to give it a try

FB- Doug

 

Tidewater Tales

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1 hour ago, KC375 said:

A Hunter S Thompson disciple.

You will no doubt be at the wheel of the "Red Shark"

red_shark_ss_1_1533774242443_94489530_ve

I had a red impala in my head when I wrote what I wrote!  Dammit, I am so unoriginal ;-)

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

88% of the deceased are age 70+. 

Confirmed infections have a median age of 64 and are 60% male.

I'm not here to argue the mortality rates.. but even though you're not likely to die from this, younger people are severely affected by the illness. For instance Italy's patient 1 is 38, and just waking from his 3-week coma.

So some sort of triage is also likely at play in assigning who gets the respiratory help they need.

This shit show is going to have crazy proportions.. good luck America.. I wish we had a leader who had a clever genius uncle.

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5 minutes ago, Kaptajnen said:

So some sort of triage is also likely at play in assigning who gets the respiratory help they need.

Hence the caveat on elderly having high number of pre-conditions accelerating mortality. If no treatment capacity the elderly don't even make it through the front door, let alone triage.

2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Note: One caveats before extrapolating elsewhere is Italy has oldest age demographic in Europe (so high other pre conditions) and around average hospital bed numbers/1000 (but higher than US and UK).

 

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6 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Hence the caveat on elderly having high number of pre-conditions accelerating mortality. If no treatment capacity the elderly don't even make it through the front door, let alone triage.

 

You might be right.. 

In Denmark a person died of his heart condition and was post posthumously, diagnosed with covid19.

This far we have no deaths directly related to  the Sars-Cov2 virus.

Your point on pre-conditions might be very true.

I have no evidence of triage going on, I'm just speculating, that different factors affect the numbers..

The number of disease carriers here, has most likely risen, even though the number of diagnosed has gone down.. but that's related to a different approach in who and when to test.

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15 minutes ago, Kaptajnen said:

I'm not here to argue the mortality rates.. but even though you're not likely to die from this, younger people are severely affected by the illness. For instance Italy's patient 1 is 38, and just waking from his 3-week coma.

So some sort of triage is also likely at play in assigning who gets the respiratory help they need.

This shit show is going to have crazy proportions.. good luck America.. I wish we had a leader who had a clever genius uncle.

Among developed nations the US may do the worst during COVID 19 on set for two reasons:

1.       Chauvinism (only a US test is good enough for the US) and incompetence at CDC (can’t create an effective test fast enough) and in the administration (get rid of pandemic preparedness ability) has put the US at a disadvantage with sever testing shortage

2.       Shortage of healthcare availability. A significant share of the population is uninsured or underinsured. In a pandemic your prospects are not just a function of your health and your access to health care BUT ALSO a function of the health and access to health care of the rest of your community.

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23 minutes ago, Kaptajnen said:

I wish we had a leader who had a clever genius uncle.

Worse is when you have a leader who is a fuckwit and his father is even a bigger fuckwit.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, KC375 said:

Among developed nations the US may do the worst during COVID 19 on set for two reasons:

Yes, I was being ironic about the genius uncle.. the good luck was genuine.

 

I'm pretty pleased with how our prime minister has tackled this situation. She has shown leadership I didn't know she was capable of. 

She has taken measures ahead of other European countries, that others now copy.

But the impact of the disease will haunt our society for long.

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4 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Worse is when you have a leader who is a fuckwit and his father is even a bigger fuckwit.

You can't make this shit up... 

Trump and Johnson seem like cartoon characters to me.. I can't grasp that enough people can't see through their ridiculous and baseless selfpraise... 

I can't believe they even believe it themselves.

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17 minutes ago, Kaptajnen said:

I can't believe they even believe it themselves.

Well they are both batshit crazy and not very bright. Don't know about Trump but I think Johnson got his "herd immunisation" strategy (where you don't do anything) from this retarded women. Actually there is a high probability one of those kids is his.

It is is strange that he is murdering his voter base of the over 55's, but my guess is the baby boomer pension cheque pile is so big something is needed to solve the problem. Anyway I'm sure you will be able to buy robotic grandparents on Amazon shortly.

ETD32WiWsAAeSpc.png

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2 hours ago, KC375 said:

I'm no expert but have been following this. It looked like the fatality rates been relatively steady.  If so then triage probably not a factor as the earlier cases would have hit the health systems before capacity constraints....BUT...triage is likely coming to most countries in the world especially the US where absence of tests has made tracking difficult and UK with the "take it on the chin/herd immunity strategy".

 

Speaking of triage, the first confirmed case in our state was confirmed yesterday, in a county hundreds of miles away, yet our local hospital already has their triage center setup...

cv.png.de371b42f1c651e76f64739e73f62567.png

Looks like we are ready to go. Let's get this thing over with. Our sailing season is just around the corner (at least our local ski resort is still going strong).

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12 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

ETD32WiWsAAeSpc.png

I guess I have to revoke my prior statement.. you can actually make this shit up... 

I'm by no way a religious man but Jesus Christ this is going downhill fast...

And now we have our first confirmed covid19 related death... 

 

This is getting scary...

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11 minutes ago, Varan said:

  (at least our local ski resort is still going strong).

How much longer? There's an analogous thread to this one about skiing on TGR. At least hiking for turns will work and keep one away from the masses.

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Just now, Alan Crawford said:

How much longer? There's an analogous thread to this one about skiing on TGR. At least hiking for turns will work and keep one away from the masses.

Austria is shutting down skiresorts for the season, as of tomorrow..

The leisure industry will be hit hard by this..

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47 minutes ago, KC375 said:

Among developed nations the US may do the worst during COVID 19 on set for two reasons:

 

1.       Chauvinism (only a US test is good enough for the US) and incompetence at CDC (can’t create an effective test fast enough) and in the administration (get rid of pandemic preparedness ability) has put the US at a disadvantage with sever testing shortage

 

2.       Shortage of healthcare availability. A significant share of the population is uninsured or underinsured. In a pandemic your prospects are not just a function of your health and your access to health care BUT ALSO a function of the health and access to health care of the rest of your community.

 

Ive been SCREAMING for weeks now, "just use the Korean test protocol you dolts!

Fucking hell.

Here in CT the health department is severely rationing testing. The will only test if you are at hospital with over 101 fever. If you read between the lines you will see that thet hsve Given Up Containment and are only interested in bending the curve. They dont care sbout knowing how msny cases. They eant to keep hospitals from overwhrlm. All colleges are dismissed. More schhols daily. Fauirfield all I think. Libraries vloseing. CT epidemiologist says 30 to 70% will contrat it by end of year...thast'd giving up...

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30 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Well they are both batshit crazy and not very bright. Don't know about Trump but I think Johnson got his "herd immunisation" strategy (where you don't do anything) from this retarded women. Actually there is a high probability one of those kids is his.

It is is strange that he is murdering his voter base of the over 55's, but my guess is the baby boomer pension cheque pile is so big something is needed to solve the problem. Anyway I'm sure you will be able to buy robotic grandparents on Amazon shortly.

ETD32WiWsAAeSpc.png

Encyclopedia Brown .   Measles. Mormons back in hte dsy.

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1 minute ago, fastyacht said:

. If you read between the lines you will see that thet hsve Given Up Containment and are only interested in bending the curve. They dont care sbout knowing how msny cases. They eant to keep hospitals from overwhrlm. All colleges are dismissed. More schhols daily. Fauirfield all I think. Libraries vloseing. CT epidemiologist says 30 to 70% will contrat it by end of year...thast'd giving up...

That's the strategy in Europe at the moment. The disease is spread, containment no longer possible..

The authorities bare very open about this, you don't have to read between the lines.

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56 minutes ago, Alan Crawford said:

How much longer? There's an analogous thread to this one about skiing on TGR. At least hiking for turns will work and keep one away from the masses.

Another hobby I indulge in involves hiking in remote areas, which I've been doing a lot of since Jan 1.  I'll be doing more until we're all told we can't go out (or my family is quarantined).  Keeps me away from the masses, and I get good exercise.

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1 hour ago, Alan Crawford said:

How much longer?

Plan is through April, the normal closing date. Snowpack is excellent. 117" fell in the village just in January, and we have had a lot more since. There was talk of extending the season, but that rarely happens as folks start to lose interest and the resort already made their dollars for the season, plus the seasonal employees need to head to their summer jobs.

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  is it  time to do that round the world solo  ?

if you are older

could be safer then going to a concert or political rally

 

I think I had cv-19 on jan 27 2020

sure hope it is a one and done thing

as I do NOT want a rerun of that bug

early adopter or something
no idea from where I could have caught it
I mostly stayed in miami but did a few trips to the west coast of fla
in the 2-3 weeks before I got sick
I did go to a marine swap meet and normal garage sales and the flea market
no out of country but the house across the street is full of Vietnamese

symptoms bad body aches and pain worse then the flu
fever and chills very bad
bad cough lungs hurt
gut was ok no runs or throw ups but did not want to eat lost about 15 lbs
very low energy just wanted to sit or lie down

minor head aches

major diff from flu was NO running nose NO sore throat at all no sinus pain or discharge
all the above close match to reported cv-19 symptoms
minor hick-cups very often only other effect but that maybe just me

I was down for about 10 days and weak for a few weeks after the aches and fever stopped

no tests just stayed at home
wife had very minor symptoms
my two kids who live at home did NOT get sick

recently tryed to get a anti-body test to check if I had cv-19
but NO test available for that in the USA [china has one]
not the live/active virus test that they do have and use here
as I no longer have the bug after over 6 weeks time so no point in the live test


did have recent blood test last week and check up and I am in good general health

posting now as the prospect of enforced Q at a military base is over now
with standard procedure to Q at home what I basically did

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Difficulty breathing? Or whatever they call it? You didn’t mention that primary distinguishing symptom?

More to your question...yes...it is always a good time for a long sail.

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12 minutes ago, El Boracho said:

Difficulty breathing? Or whatever they call it? You didn’t mention that primary distinguishing symptom?

More to your question...yes...it is always a good time for a long sail.

did say my lungs hurt with a bad cough so yes breathing was effected

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32 minutes ago, nota said:

  is it  time to do that round the world solo  ?

if you are older

could be safer then going to a concert or political rally

 

I think I had cv-19 on jan 27 2020

sure hope it is a one and done thing

as I do NOT want a rerun of that bug

early adopter or something
no idea from where I could have caught it
I mostly stayed in miami but did a few trips to the west coast of fla
in the 2-3 weeks before I got sick
I did go to a marine swap meet and normal garage sales and the flea market
no out of country but the house across the street is full of Vietnamese

symptoms bad body aches and pain worse then the flu
fever and chills very bad
bad cough lungs hurt
gut was ok no runs or throw ups but did not want to eat lost about 15 lbs
very low energy just wanted to sit or lie down

minor head aches

major diff from flu was NO running nose NO sore throat at all no sinus pain or discharge
all the above close match to reported cv-19 symptoms
minor hick-cups very often only other effect but that maybe just me

I was down for about 10 days and weak for a few weeks after the aches and fever stopped

no tests just stayed at home
wife had very minor symptoms
my two kids who live at home did NOT get sick

recently tryed to get a anti-body test to check if I had cv-19
but NO test available for that in the USA [china has one]
not the live/active virus test that they do have and use here
as I no longer have the bug after over 6 weeks time so no point in the live test


did have recent blood test last week and check up and I am in good general health

posting now as the prospect of enforced Q at a military base is over now
with standard procedure to Q at home what I basically did

Damn, sure glad you are feeling better and your family is okay. 

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17 minutes ago, nota said:

did say my lungs hurt with a bad cough so yes breathing was effected

I would think 'lungs hurt' is different than 'shortness of breath'. Only a comment from me. I know nothing and do not pretend to second guess your opinion.

Yup, glad you had a good outcome, no matter what it was.

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2 hours ago, Varan said:

Speaking of triage, the first confirmed case in our state was confirmed yesterday, in a county hundreds of miles away, yet our local hospital already has their triage center setup...

cv.png.de371b42f1c651e76f64739e73f62567.png

Looks like we are ready to go. Let's get this thing over with. Our sailing season is just around the corner (at least our local ski resort is still going strong).

Recall that Wuhan had people literally dying on the streets. Chinese authorities setup ad-hoc incinerators to take care of the extra bodies. The incinerators were revealed to the world by increased pollution levels.

Go sailing, but skip the bar & buffet!

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^^ maybe the buffet, but we do have to keep our wits about us. Alcohol is the only sanitizer available right now, burp. Excuse me.

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8 minutes ago, Varan said:

^^ maybe the buffet, but we do have to keep our wits about us. Alcohol is the only sanitizer available right now, burp. Excuse me.

Fair: 151 shots at the dock, if you can stomach them!

Edit: drinks outside, on the balcony in wind are good too. If you are freezing your ass off and would rather be sailing you might be doing it right.

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Worse is when you have a leader who is a fuckwit and his father is even a bigger fuckwit.

 

It would appear, at least in some cases, that fuckwittery is genetically transferable.

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~25 boat RC Laser Regatta was cancelled here in NJ. I think that was a bit much, but some of the participants are up in years. 

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17 minutes ago, apophenia said:

Fair: 151 shots at the dock, if you can stomach them!

Edit: drinks outside, on the balcony in wind are good too. If you are freezing your ass off and would rather be sailing you might be doing it right.

Speaking of freezing our asses off, temperature is 14 °F, winds sustained 30 with gusts to 50. Yesterday, 80+ mph gusts wiped out our power grid. It has been over 24 hours without power and water (well), and probably another 24 to go with single digit temperatures tonight and high winds. Nothing to do but feed the fire to keep the pipes from freezing, pound down beers to keep the virus away, and of course, partake in my favorite drunken pastime... posting worthless shit on SA. Yes, I would rather be someplace warm, alone on a boat. But thanks for thinking of us.

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I got a notice via Wastebook  that our annual Southern Straits has cancelled/post phoned. The second run of the TP52 Super Series at Cape Town had been cancelled.

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4 hours ago, Kaptajnen said:

I guess I have to revoke my prior statement.. you can actually make this shit up... 

I'm by no way a religious man but Jesus Christ this is going downhill fast...

And now we have our first confirmed covid19 related death... 

This is getting scary...

You haven't seen nothing yet. 

Imagine you are the BBC's Chief Political Reporter who has history of being the Government's mouth piece, in fact some unkind souls claim you are banging Boris Johnson. 

1442347239_images-2020-03-15T073953_605.jpeg.a80ab63c0fecd10ecd971db08c55ef6f.jpeg

So you post a vid for your millions of Twitter followers to explain the Government's "herd vaccination" strategy, sort of help the boyfriend out at work stuff. Yes the same Corona strategy no one else in the world is using and the World Health Organisation has come out publically branding it as shit. The same strategy that relies on the UK having been towed to the middle of the Atlantic and heaps of people already vaccinated to work. Oh it also requires lots of hospital beds per 1,000 people to be safe, which you don't have and sit at the bottom of the list for the developed countries.

It has been described as juggling chainsaws where you keeping asking for more then suddenly say stop, said too late there is a lot of fucking blood.

 unnamed_(14).gif.c9e2e69944e9c8144bde647c67d99554.gif

Trouble is that is only the beginning, it then really goes to shit.

Your "herd vaccination" strategy explanation video is only partly right and very, very wrong, and made by a Podiatrist whose video upload before this is of him using a homeade spud gun (with 35 views.)

Fuck me. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

You haven't seen nothing yet. 

Imagine you are the BBC's Chief Political Reporter who has history of being the Government's mouth piece, in fact some unkind souls claim you are banging Boris Johnson. 

1442347239_images-2020-03-15T073953_605.jpeg.a80ab63c0fecd10ecd971db08c55ef6f.jpeg

So you post a vid for your millions of Twitter followers to explain the Government's "herd vaccination" strategy, sort of help the boyfriend out at work stuff. Yes the same Corona strategy no one else in the world is using and the World Health Organisation has come out publically branding it as shit. The same strategy that relies on the UK having been towed to the middle of the Atlantic and heaps of people already vaccinated to work. Oh it also requires lots of hospital beds per 1,000 people to be safe, which you don't have and sit at the bottom of the list for the developed countries.

It has been described as juggling chainsaws where you keeping asking for more then suddenly say stop, said too late there is a lot of fucking blood.

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Trouble is that is only the beginning, it then really goes to shit.

Your "herd vaccination" strategy explanation video is only partly right and very, very wrong, and made by a Podiatrist whose video upload before this is of him using a homeade spud gun (with 35 views.)

Fuck me. 

 

 

We need a buttomn that is "hate the message" but "like the post"

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1 hour ago, Varan said:

Speaking of freezing our asses off, temperature is 14 °F, winds sustained 30 with gusts to 50. Yesterday, 80+ mph gusts wiped out our power grid. It has been over 24 hours without power and water (well), and probably another 24 to go with single digit temperatures tonight and high winds. Nothing to do but feed the fire to keep the pipes from freezing, pound down beers to keep the virus away, and of course, partake in my favorite drunken pastime... posting worthless shit on SA. Yes, I would rather be someplace warm, alone on a boat. But thanks for thinking of us.

You poor bastard

If it cheers you up any, I did not go sailing today. Sunny and cool with a nice breeze, but I had to spend the day washing tons of pollen off everything. Half the front yard was a bright yellow puddle, it literally looked like paint.

FB- Doug

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9 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

LB. Mortality stats are on his side.

Note: One caveats before extrapolating elsewhere is Italy has oldest age demographic in Europe (so high other pre conditions) and around average hospital bed numbers/1000 (but higher than US and UK).

Italian National Health Institute data from 12/3 show mortality among confirmed cases thus:

age 0-29: 0%
30-49: 0.1%
50-59: 0.6%
60-69: 2.7%
70-79: 9.6%
80-89: 16.6%
90+: 19%

88% of the deceased are age 70+. 
Confirmed infections have a median age of 64 and are 60% male.

Roco is out of the woods now and breathing without a respirator. He should make a full recovery. My theory that it has effected so many in Spain and Italy is because so many of them smoke. I can’t believe how many of them were swinging off a lung buster while we were there. It was like being in Mad Men.

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9 minutes ago, LB 15 said:

. I can’t believe how many of them were swinging off a lung buster while we were there. It was like being in Mad Men.

Lucky you are not in Asia...even the doctor smokes while running a stethoscope across your chest. If they get Mad Men translated on the tele they will go mental wanting to be western.

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46 minutes ago, LB 15 said:

My theory that it has effected so many in Spain and Italy is because so many of them smoke.

Theory might need re-jigging LB. Ranked one of if not healthiest country in world, highest life expectancy in Europe in top group in the world (that stat might have now taken a hit). Smoking related cancer (trachea, bronchus and lung) deaths ranked fourth behind other cancer deaths. Smoking related cancer in Australia 5 times Italys on per capita basis. 

So I think maybe not smoking, probably more cultural, social interaction etc incl high occupancies/multi generational families in a high rate of owner occupied homes (interstingly with very low debt). I think a lot of them also bang their cousins regularly.

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Midwest college qualifiers in April getting cancelled. Don't get to travel to beautiful Ann Arbor. Who knows what other events will experience the same in June, or July. Waiting to see.

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44 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Theory might need re-jigging LB. Ranked one of if not healthiest country in world, highest life expectancy in Europe in top group in the world (that stat might have now taken a hit). Smoking related cancer (trachea, bronchus and lung) deaths ranked fourth behind other cancer deaths. Smoking related cancer in Australia 5 times Italys on per capita basis. 

So I think maybe not smoking, probably more cultural, social interaction etc incl high occupancies/multi generational families in a high rate of owner occupied homes (interstingly with very low debt). I think a lot of them also bang their cousins regularly.

If my cousin looked half as good as most Italian women I saw I would bang them too.

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5 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

You haven't seen nothing yet. 

1442347239_images-2020-03-15T073953_605.jpeg.a80ab63c0fecd10ecd971db08c55ef6f.jpeg

So you post a vid for your millions of Twitter followers to explain the Government's "herd vaccination" strategy, sort of help the boyfriend out at work stuff. Yes the same Corona strategy no one else in the world is using and the World Health Organisation has come out publically branding it as shit. The same strategy that relies on the UK having been towed to the middle of the Atlantic and heaps of people already vaccinated to work. Oh it also requires lots of hospital beds per 1,000 people to be safe, which you don't have and sit at the bottom of the list for the developed countries.

It has been described as juggling chainsaws where you keeping asking for more then suddenly say stop, said too late there is a lot of fucking blood.

 Trouble is that is only the beginning, it then really goes to shit.

Your "herd vaccination" strategy explanation video is only partly right and very, very wrong, and made by a Podiatrist whose video upload before this is of him using a homeade spud gun (with 35 views.)

Fuck me

First of all - well done Boris, but maybe being pm makes things 'easier'.

The video is stupid.. whilst the immunity is still debatable, no one knows whether herd vaccination works or not, and with no means of controlling the flow from the big bucket to health care system bottle, how the fuck are you supposed to know when to quarantine.. the logic is so freaking flawed.. I mean when the healthcare bottle is full, the virus is spread out.. when half full it might still be to late, because the more widespread the disease is, the faster the flow rate will be.

And the quarantine will have to last as fucking long as it needs too.. yes it will be hard, and crazy expensive, but that is just how it is - it's no argument, and you can quarantine as much as needed if that's was best for the people or the country.

From a scientific viewpoint it's kinda interesting to have an island do sort of their own thing.. even though no one believes it will work, it will serve as an isolated example.

I guess will see in a months time how it played out.. in a month the curves has most likely leveled out on the mainland, if you by then need help, you simple have to reach across a small body of water and hope the other fuckwit with whom you have an alliance, has not succumbed to the virus himself or stuffed his entire country up.. 

I like the chainsaw analogy... And yes Fuck You... 

At least our pm is doing something, not to sure on the border thing.. unless there's fear of zombie-apocalypse bus raid on the border.. I wish we'd done it 2 weeks ago.. selfquarantined more people from more destinations, and shut down the country from tourists..

But maybe the numbers weren't justifiable, or the country/inhabitants weren't ready. Who knows.

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1 hour ago, LB 15 said:

If my cousin looked half as good as most Italian women I saw I would bang them too.

Mmmmm....Vespa girls, Fiat girls, Peroni girls, Fragrance girls, Fashion girls, Coked-Up-Fashion girls and even Lung Buster girls. 

Really can't see what all fuckin hype is about.

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sisley.jpg

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9 hours ago, Kaptajnen said:

First of all - well done Boris, but maybe being pm makes things 'easier'.

The video is stupid.. whilst the immunity is still debatable, no one knows whether herd vaccination works or not, and with no means of controlling the flow from the big bucket to health care system bottle, how the fuck are you supposed to know when to quarantine.. the logic is so freaking flawed.. I mean when the healthcare bottle is full, the virus is spread out.. when half full it might still be to late, because the more widespread the disease is, the faster the flow rate will be.

And the quarantine will have to last as fucking long as it needs too.. yes it will be hard, and crazy expensive, but that is just how it is - it's no argument, and you can quarantine as much as needed if that's was best for the people or the country.

From a scientific viewpoint it's kinda interesting to have an island do sort of their own thing.. even though no one believes it will work, it will serve as an isolated example.

I guess will see in a months time how it played out.. in a month the curves has most likely leveled out on the mainland, if you by then need help, you simple have to reach across a small body of water and hope the other fuckwit with whom you have an alliance, has not succumbed to the virus himself or stuffed his entire country up.. 

I like the chainsaw analogy... And yes Fuck You... 

At least our pm is doing something, not to sure on the border thing.. unless there's fear of zombie-apocalypse bus raid on the border.. I wish we'd done it 2 weeks ago.. selfquarantined more people from more destinations, and shut down the country from tourists..

But maybe the numbers weren't justifiable, or the country/inhabitants weren't ready. Who knows.

The UK government needs to talk to some control system engineers. When the characteristic time of the feedback circuit is comparable to the characteristic time of the exponential amplifier, it's very, very difficult to control. The only possible way this has any chance of working is with widespread, continuous testing of the population and the ability to effectively throttle the feedback. Perhaps they can do the testing part but I'm skeptical that after telling people not to quarantine for so long, they're suddenly going to get good quarantine compliance when they need it. You don't get a lot of error tolerance with an exponential curve, especially when you're climbed a long way up it.

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France. Government banned all public gatherings, closed bars, restaurants, non essential shops. FFV banned all federation sanctioned events, so no racing, schools, training.... Belgium banned all leisure boating.

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1 hour ago, cms said:

France. Government banned all public gatherings, closed bars, restaurants, non essential shops. FFV banned all federation sanctioned events, so no racing, schools, training.... Belgium banned all leisure boating.

All bars, pubs, restaurants, ... Are closed in Belgium. Only supermarkets are open on saturday. All other shops must be closed as well.

Every recrenational thing must be closed, so no fitness, swimming pools, ... 

Parks are crowed now, its the onky thing left. 

Holland complained a lot of belgians camr to them for the restaurants, but are closing everything down as well on monday. 

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6 minutes ago, gewoon ik said:

All bars, pubs, restaurants, ... Are closed in Belgium. Only supermarkets are open on saturday. All other shops must be closed as well.

Every recrenational thing must be closed, so no fitness, swimming pools, ... 

Parks are crowed now, its the onky thing left. 

Holland complained a lot of belgians camr to them for the restaurants, but are closing everything down as well on monday. 

one little exception, it's funny but true : our "frietkoten" (fries shops) are allowed to remain open but you are not allowed to eat your fries on the spot, purely takaway ... grin, our governement was clever enough to allow this, avoiding a revolt, you can take away a lot, but not my frietkot ;-)

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2 minutes ago, Albatros said:

one little exception, it's funny but true : our "frietkoten" (fries shops) are allowed to remain open but you are not allowed to eat your fries on the spot, purely takaway ... grin, our governement was clever enough to allow this, avoiding a revolt, you can take away a lot, but not my frietkot ;-)

important to know what friet is a friet too far

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1 hour ago, cms said:

 Belgium banned all leisure boating.

Fark! If the Australian government decides to lock down the population (which I think will happen by the end of the week) a few of us are intending to load up our boats with beer and toilet paper and head down the bay until it is over. No point in keeping my business open anyway. It has fallen off a cliff.

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1 hour ago, cms said:

France. Government banned all public gatherings, closed bars, restaurants, non essential shops. FFV banned all federation sanctioned events, so no racing, schools, training.... Belgium banned all leisure boating.


https://www.clubracer.be/2020/3/15/coronavirus-recreatievaart-verboden-noordzee

:angry:

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We just cancelled our planned week in Vallarta on a Jeanneau 429.  First world problems.  If the weather were better here I'd be heading to Catalina.  Maybe next week.  

Club Nautique stepped up & gave a full refund.  Not sure how we'll fare with Volaris.  

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2 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

How about for those who already caught the virus and got over it...can they start going to the bar again?

They can volunteer at hospitals and health clinics. And have a beer after work.

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22 hours ago, LB 15 said:

Roco is out of the woods now and breathing without a respirator. He should make a full recovery. My theory that it has effected so many in Spain and Italy is because so many of them smoke. I can’t believe how many of them were swinging off a lung buster while we were there. It was like being in Mad Men.

LB you are very correct. Was talking to a medical person the other day about this. The chemicals in the smoke reduce the body's defences against this virus apparently. Another good reason to give up.

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Just now, fastyacht said:

They can volunteer at hospitals and health clinics. And have a beer after work.

That might be a good volunteer recruitment plan!

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1 hour ago, albanyguy said:

LB you are very correct. Was talking to a medical person the other day about this. The chemicals in the smoke reduce the body's defences against this virus apparently. Another good reason to give up.

I love the Italians but their  consideration for others when smoking is non existent. They think nothing of firing one up in a crowd and blowing smoke in your face. I was sitting in a crowded bar in Florence having a beer with my lads and a couple of blokes asked if they could share our table. I said sure but when one pulled out a packet of durries I asked if he could not smoke at the table as had a chest infection and he acted like I had asked if i could fuck his mother. They both fired one up so we left. Fucking Wogs. (: 

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This is why the Italians didn’t win the America’s Cup. Everyone knew when they were about to tack or jibe because they put their cigarettes down. 

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51 minutes ago, LB 15 said:

I love the Italians but their  consideration for others when smoking is non existent. They think nothing of firing one up in a crowd and blowing smoke in your face. I was sitting in a crowded bar in Florence having a beer with my lads and a couple of blokes asked if they could share our table. I said sure but when one pulled out a packet of durries I asked if he could not smoke at the table as had a chest infection and he acted like I had asked if i could fuck his mother. They both fired one up so we left. Fucking Wogs. (: 

 

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13 hours ago, IStream said:

The UK government needs to talk to some control system engineers. When the characteristic time of the feedback circuit is comparable to the characteristic time of the exponential amplifier, it's very, very difficult to control. The only possible way this has any chance of working is with widespread, continuous testing of the population and the ability to effectively throttle the feedback. Perhaps they can do the testing part but I'm skeptical that after telling people not to quarantine for so long, they're suddenly going to get good quarantine compliance when they need it. You don't get a lot of error tolerance with an exponential curve, especially when you're climbed a long way up it.

Stream nope UK aren't/can't but then they look good compared to US testing rate to date bordering on the non existent.

Then both also together at the bottom of developed countries list of hospital beds per 1,000 population (OECD) of 2.3 and 2.77  compared to Japan (13) and Korea (12) at top and lower than Italy (3.6) and China (4.3) hit hard to date.

images (63).png

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14 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Nope and US rate worse and both together at the bottom of developed countries list of hospital beds per 1,000 population.

 

images (63).png

U.S. is giing to abandin tedting. Just you watch. Connecticyt already has, from oractical standpoint  NPR story today which showed extreme rationing of tests going on .

CDC total fail. CDC pandemic group eviscerated by current admin. Tital CDC and NIH budget slashed too.

No surpriees here

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8 hours ago, LB 15 said:

Fark! If the Australian government decides to lock down the population (which I think will happen by the end of the week) a few of us are intending to load up our boats with beer and toilet paper and head down the bay until it is over. No point in keeping my business open anyway. It has fallen off a cliff.

Until it's over...LB that's a lot of piss and paper.

ETEEY1MXQAAE6Qx.jpeg.51ab80d45c45d133d17c4c55eb2f138a.jpeg

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2 hours ago, LB 15 said:

I love the Italians but their consideration for others when smoking is non existent. They think nothing........I said sure but when one pulled out a packet of durries I asked if he could not smoke at the table as had a chest infection and he acted like I had asked if i could fuck his mother. They both fired one up so we left. Fucking Wogs. (: 

Mate let me guess...you also go to a topless restaurant and bitch about the food?? :D

It's their total lack of consideration towards personal protection when riding Vespas which really pisses me off.

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5 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Mate let me guess...you also go to a topless restaurant and bitch about the food?? :D

Am I the only difficult person on the planet?  

Maybe we just use fisticuffs and rise to fight another day.

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