TheDragon

How has the coronavirus COVID-19 affected your sailing?

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9 minutes ago, KC375 said:

Yes I saw that your facts trumped my BS...dam I hate when that happens

Call it the Jack Kerouac / Hunter S. Thompson effect on U.S. Public Health :-)

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3 hours ago, Svanen said:

The panicked government approach - deliberately inflicting massive economic and social chaos upon billions of people, in a vain attempt to fight what is a very minor threat to the great majority - is stupidly unproductive.

Worth reading.

The article actually makes valid points, but they are only valid for the context in which it was written: Canada. The tipoff is this paragraph:

"We [Canadians -- EB] should instead be targeting significant resources toward the protection of those at highest risk (the elderly, those with underlying chronic diseases and those with immune-compromising conditions) and maintaining a healthy, robust, responsive health-care system that can handle a potential surge. The economic and social costs of pursuing quarantine are staggering and actually counter-productive." (Emphasis mine.)

The United States version of that would go something like this:

"We [Americans -- EB] are unable to target significant resources to the protection of those at highest risk because we do not have a healthy, robust, responsive health care system that can handle a potential surge. We are therefore reduced to pursuing a desperation strategy of quarantine whose economic and social costs are staggering and which may turn out to be counter-productive."

tl;dr: We're screwed.

Earl

 

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Looks like Duterte has closed Manila to travel. We were booked to return home to PI next week. That won't be happening until at least mid April now. So we will stay here. Maybe get some painting completed on the yacht. Except the weather will be dismal. Presumably the regattas in Puerto Galera are cancelled. And without bars open what is the point of a sailing holiday there...bleh.

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12 minutes ago, Earl Boebert said:

The article actually makes valid points, but they are only valid for the context in which it was written: Canada. The tipoff is this paragraph:

"We [Canadians -- EB] should instead be targeting significant resources toward the protection of those at highest risk (the elderly, those with underlying chronic diseases and those with immune-compromising conditions) and maintaining a healthy, robust, responsive health-care system that can handle a potential surge. The economic and social costs of pursuing quarantine are staggering and actually counter-productive." (Emphasis mine.)

The United States version of that would go something like this:

"We [Americans -- EB] are unable to target significant resources to the protection of those at highest risk because we do not have a healthy, robust, responsive health care system that can handle a potential surge. We are therefore reduced to pursuing a desperation strategy of quarantine whose economic and social costs are staggering and which may turn out to be counter-productive."

tl;dr: We're screwed.

Earl

 

Do note that the present course is NOT quarantine! Not at all! SOcial Distancing is NOT quarantine.

Please see my link to the discussion of that upthread. (NY TIMES or Washingtom Post, can't remember).

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9 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

Do note that the present course is NOT quarantine! Not at all! SOcial Distancing is NOT quarantine.

Please see my link to the discussion of that upthread. (NY TIMES or Washingtom Post, can't remember).

Yeah, you're right, I should have made the distinction. This is worth reading:

https://www.justsecurity.org/69202/highlights-of-expert-panel-on-covid-19-from-harvard-mit-mass-general/

Earl

 

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3 minutes ago, Earl Boebert said:

Yeah, you're right, I should have made the distinction. This is worth reading:

https://www.justsecurity.org/69202/highlights-of-expert-panel-on-covid-19-from-harvard-mit-mass-general/

Earl

 

Will read that.

My post was Washington Post. Just went and found it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

BTW both Wash Post and NY T are free for coronavirus updates if you give them your email addy for updates. I subscribe to NYT anyway. I think other majors are doing the same.

 

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6 minutes ago, pointbreak805 said:

SF Bay Area going on what is basically "lockdown" starting midnight tonight.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Bay-Area-must-shelter-in-place-Only-15135014.php

Well that's getting weird. And the reporting makes me wonder...because inconsistent message

This:

image.png.57235433d068f9ad0fea086928ede214.png

non-sequitur follows:

 

image.png.12d30f12d8dcfe724adc26be2b672b71.png

So you can't go for a hike up Mount Tam? Or in Muir woods? Or GTFO on SF Bay? Seems like a terrible idea to "lock down" the entire region for 3 weeks. How exactly do you do that?  Are the police going to issue tickets? How will they do that while 6 feet away?

Aha!

portable-grabber-reacher-tool-1_712d954b

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On Feb 26 I mentioned that I was prepping for Martial Law. I got a few laughs off that. No one is laughing now!

I'm waiting for the National Guard to start patrolling the streets, wearing respirators, rounding up anyone they find.

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Well, the interesting thing of course is that theoretically, if you could completely stop all spread for the length of time it takes for the disease to run course (3 weeks) then it would go extinct in the population. Of course if you then ease up, and the rest of the world is raging the "fire" would start up again...and the exponential growth would resume as long as hosts exist...

On the other hand, maybe if we actually get a testing programme going FOR REAL and REAL CONTACT TRACING we could in fact "get ahead" after this initial 3 weeks of "lockdown" and get back to pretty much normal social/economic behavior. You know, the way this SHOULD HAVE BEEN prosecuted starting from the beginning. Oh, but wait, that's right, the shlumpf in charge had canceled the pandemic office and eviscerated the NIH  and the CDC and was more interested in "face saving" (is he secretly Chinese or what?) than in getting shit done right and fast....and the overall Republican Party agenda must be held accountable here. The destruction of the Federal Government has been high on the list of priorities from the far right for some time now. That agenda has been served beautifually of late.

I'm just in a rage. Sorry.

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5 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

I'm just in a rage.

Join the club. I think we should get shirts made up.

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Reminds me of the initial Katrina response.

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7 hours ago, KC375 said:

Well if you need a liver a 48 year old one is better than non.

I think there are two other age factors that skew the donor pool to the more attractive age group. I believe older riders are more likely to wear a helmet and are probably more responsible in their riding habits. (I'm completely pulling those two observations out of my...let's say intuition ...rather than have a PG rating imposed on this thread)

EDIT...OK rectal originated observations may be just wrong

But I'll still take a 48 year old liver over dialysis

I had a liver transplant surgeon sailing with me for many years. He was part of a team that did heart/lung/liver transplants in one go and he told me the best doners were those that departed with a clean gunshot wound to the head. He said they were often young and it normally happens in inner city’s close to hospitals so the organs can be removed quickly and skilfully. He told me the problem with car/motorbike accident victims ( in Aus anyway) were that they often happened in remote locations, and there was often damage to the other organs. He also said that the problem with headshot victims was that they are often junkies with Hepatitis or fucked livers. When my dad was chairman of the South Brisbane hospitals board  he started the country’s first eye bank. He loved to joke that transplant recipients could bring in their favourite shoes before the opp to make sure the colour matched. 

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2 hours ago, fastyacht said:

Well, the interesting thing of course is that theoretically, if you could completely stop all spread for the length of time it takes for the disease to run course (3 weeks) then it would go extinct in the population...

Three weeks???? The 1st Wave lasts longer than 65 days OR 2 1/2 Months!!!! Then the 2nd Wave.

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11 hours ago, Svanen said:

The panicked government approach - deliberately inflicting massive economic and social chaos upon billions of people, in a vain attempt to fight what is a very minor threat to the great majority - is stupidly unproductive.

Worth reading.

The UK (the only country in the world against a WHO directive) is using a non-containment approach (as outlined in that article) where they are apparently basing their approach upon the 1918/19 Spanish Flu pandemic, albeit it has completely different characteristics.

Maybe then this is a useful  comparison.

Case Fatality Rate

1918/19 Spanish Flue - Approx 2.3% average. Britain 288,000 deaths in total out of 9.9 million cases with population of 43 million. 

ETEEY1MXQAAE6Qx.jpeg.51ab80d45c45d133d17c4c55eb2f138a.jpeg

IMG_20200316_144909.jpg.cfcacdf58df055e9cfd495c63043fc72.jpg

China to 11 Feb - 2.3% after 65 days and past the 1st Wave/Peak

UK to 15 March 2020 -  2.55% after 44 days 

UK 17 March 2020 - 3.40% after 46 days or 2 days later and 19 days left to reach 65 days.

Then there is the 2nd Peak with up to 5 times the Case Fatality Rate?

In 19 days this fucktard theory of non-containment (which is akin to juggling chainsaws and asking to be thrown more) will be truly known.

unnamed_(14).gif.c9e2e69944e9c8144bde647c67d99554.gif

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4 hours ago, fastyacht said:

Well, the interesting thing of course is that theoretically, if you could completely stop all spread for the length of time it takes for the disease to run course (3 weeks) then it would go extinct in the population. Of course if you then ease up, and the rest of the world is raging the "fire" would start up again...and the exponential growth would resume as long as hosts exist...

On the other hand, maybe if we actually get a testing programme going FOR REAL and REAL CONTACT TRACING we could in fact "get ahead" after this initial 3 weeks of "lockdown" and get back to pretty much normal social/economic behavior. You know, the way this SHOULD HAVE BEEN prosecuted starting from the beginning. Oh, but wait, that's right, the shlumpf in charge had canceled the pandemic office and eviscerated the NIH  and the CDC and was more interested in "face saving" (is he secretly Chinese or what?) than in getting shit done right and fast....and the overall Republican Party agenda must be held accountable here. The destruction of the Federal Government has been high on the list of priorities from the far right for some time now. That agenda has been served beautifually of late.

I'm just in a rage. Sorry.

 

1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Three weeks???? The 1st Wave lasts longer than 65 days OR 2 1/2 Months!!!! Then the 2nd Wave.

image.thumb.png.bbdb508b6507f2f34192ecf566e1e428.png

 

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This sucks on every level, but personally, I just bailed on an attempt at Panama Canal transit as they have nearly shut everything down there, plus French Polynesia has made it pointless to even head there. I get back to Illinois, having sold my lake boat the day before I headed to Panama, only to find my little local lake completely shut to recreation of any kind.

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My Summer club has cancelled it's rigging out dinner due on Saturday night,, it had to, the hotel / restaurant  had been forced to close.

 A talk by Mike McNamara has been cancelled,  https://www.facebook.com/michaelmcnarara/

The Local Boat show on May 2nd is cancelled,

At the moment normal racing / sailing is on at our club from Sunday, but is under review.

The next nearest  two clubs,

One is open for private sailing only, no club racing.

The other club at the moment makes no mention of it..

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Ah new email, my summer club has cancelled racing until further notice..

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On 3/17/2020 at 12:34 AM, LB 15 said:

When my dad was chairman of the South Brisbane hospitals board  he started the country’s first eye bank. He loved to joke that transplant recipients could bring in their favourite shoes before the opp to make sure the colour matched. 

see what you did there.

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On 3/16/2020 at 6:16 AM, Svanen said:

The panicked government approach - deliberately inflicting massive economic and social chaos upon billions of people, in a vain attempt to fight what is a very minor threat to the great majority - is stupidly unproductive.

Worth reading.

He has a point here that is worth some rational discussion. 

How many people will be directly killed by the economic damage caused by our response?  I mean not by the virus but by not being able to afford some critical medicine, food, heating, or shelter.  In addition there will almost certainly be an uptick in domestic violence and general mischief with children home and parents unemployed and frustrated.  In country of 300 million people (speaking of the US), the number that will be killed by this response is certainly not zero. 

There are hundreds of thousands of people that live essentially paycheck to paycheck.  Several thousand of them have been sent "home" (whatever that means) without a job for a few weeks at least.  The majority of them aren't working for a some big company that will get a government bailout so they are simply screwed.

 

Now weigh that against what we are trying to accomplish.  The economic shutdown/social distancing is not design to stop the virus.  We have accepted that we cannot stop it so it will likely eventually rip through the population.  Our actions are designed to "flatten to curve."  This means to spread out the number of infected people across a greater amount of time so our hospitals and medical professionals are not overwhelmed.  However, anyone who has taken calculus knows that the total area under the curve is the number of infected people.  A flattened curve can have the same or greater area.

 

So the real net effect of all our actions is to provide greater medical attention to those who would have otherwise not received greater medical attention had the curve not been flattened and our hospitals more overwhelmed.  With a disease that has no cure, greater medical attention mostly means receiving a ventilator.  (Doctors-feel free to step in and correct me here...im sure I'm oversimplifying)  Many people will die with a ventilator and many others would recover even without one. 

What is the true number of the people we are saving vs. the number we are killing with our economic shutdown?  Opinions?

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1 hour ago, Tharsheblows said:

He has a point here that is worth some rational discussion. 

How many people will be directly killed by the economic damage caused by our response?  I mean not by the virus but by not being able to afford some critical medicine, food, heating, or shelter.  In addition there will almost certainly be an uptick in domestic violence and general mischief with children home and parents unemployed and frustrated.  In country of 300 million people (speaking of the US), the number that will be killed by this response is certainly not zero. 

There are hundreds of thousands of people that live essentially paycheck to paycheck.  Several thousand of them have been sent "home" (whatever that means) without a job for a few weeks at least.  The majority of them aren't working for a some big company that will get a government bailout so they are simply screwed.

 

Now weigh that against what we are trying to accomplish.  The economic shutdown/social distancing is not design to stop the virus.  We have accepted that we cannot stop it so it will likely eventually rip through the population.  Our actions are designed to "flatten to curve."  This means to spread out the number of infected people across a greater amount of time so our hospitals and medical professionals are not overwhelmed.  However, anyone who has taken calculus knows that the total area under the curve is the number of infected people.  A flattened curve can have the same or greater area.

 

So the real net effect of all our actions is to provide greater medical attention to those who would have otherwise not received greater medical attention had the curve not been flattened and our hospitals more overwhelmed.  With a disease that has no cure, greater medical attention mostly means receiving a ventilator.  (Doctors-feel free to step in and correct me here...im sure I'm oversimplifying)  Many people will die with a ventilator and many others would recover even without one. 

What is the true number of the people we are saving vs. the number we are killing with our economic shutdown?  Opinions?

Your post has a good chance of taking this discussion to PA...but what the hell...

There are a lot of US structural and organizational factors that have made the challenge greater but fundamentally those can’t be addressed quickly enough so the following equation needs to be addressed within the current constraints.

The basic public policy question is

Is A > B – C?

Where

A = the harm mitigated by flattening the curve.

 If the curve flattening is fully effective (keeps demand below peak/expanded supply) the best case is still not great. Until meds to treat, herd immunity and or vaccine

70-80% of population will get it...

for 80% it may not be much worse than a really awful flu (remember influenza is still deadly)...that is they won't have signs of pneumonia or significant respiratory distress

3-5% will die – mostly over 70 smokers, CVD, diabetes, asthma...

~ 2-3% population fatality rate...

An aspect of flattening the curve is delaying the infection of some until meds and vaccine available. The other effect is avoid the results of exceeding healthcare capacity. That is not just about the extra deaths from Covid 19. It is also about the extra deaths caused from other patients with critical conditions denied treatment for lack of capacity. The biggest effect would be on critical conditions involving ventilators (that’s a lot of them) but also from exhausted other medical resources. For Covid 19 it looks like 5% of infected are classed critical and about half the critical die. For the portion of the infected critical population that exceeds health care capacity I think you can assume 100% mortality. The effect could be calculated with more than a little uncertainty.

B = effect of the economic harm caused by social distancing and other techniques used to achieve A.

C = economic harm caused by an unconstrained epidemic in the US (this is a variable left out of your post)

B and C are real – particularly in a country with poor social safety net – but hard to calculate.

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32 minutes ago, hannibalhouse said:

That seems a bit extreme!

 

5 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

@KC375 good explanation

Yes, he put it quite clearly. This morning on radio BBC, there was an Italian doctor talking about what they're experiencing, one month into the start of the wave of actual cases. Hospital parking lots are being turned into tent cities because of a tide of people coming in. He said "Perhaps the rate of increase is beginning to slow but we are still getting further behind in treating paitents, and we have been training anybody willing to help to go thru the incoming patients to find those we can help."

In other words, if this ramps up in the US unchecked, you will die if you have any other health emergency because you will not get care. We have less hospital availability per capita than Italy. The US is about 3 weeks behind Italy in rate of infection, which means if we can hammer it NOW... as in shutting it down yesterday... we have a good chance.

"Flattening the curve" (new buzz phrase) is not a cure, it's slowing the rate of increase of new cases such that the health care system is not swamped.

Remember a key point is that people can get infected, and start spreading it, for several days before they start to show symptoms, before they realize they are sick.

What is the cost of shutting it down versus letting it run? It's going to grind to halt anyway. Do you want to wear out the brakes or do you want to just crash head-on?

FB- Doug

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16 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

@KC375 good explanation

and so far we've avoid PA, a place that scares me and I've been in some scary places.

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32 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

That seems a bit extreme!

 

Yes, he put it quite clearly. This morning on radio BBC, there was an Italian doctor talking about what they're experiencing, one month into the start of the wave of actual cases. Hospital parking lots are being turned into tent cities because of a tide of people coming in. He said "Perhaps the rate of increase is beginning to slow but we are still getting further behind in treating paitents, and we have been training anybody willing to help to go thru the incoming patients to find those we can help."

In other words, if this ramps up in the US unchecked, you will die if you have any other health emergency because you will not get care. We have less hospital availability per capita than Italy. The US is about 3 weeks behind Italy in rate of infection, which means if we can hammer it NOW... as in shutting it down yesterday... we have a good chance.

"Flattening the curve" (new buzz phrase) is not a cure, it's slowing the rate of increase of new cases such that the health care system is not swamped.

Remember a key point is that people can get infected, and start spreading it, for several days before they start to show symptoms, before they realize they are sick.

What is the cost of shutting it down versus letting it run? It's going to grind to halt anyway. Do you want to wear out the brakes or do you want to just crash head-on?

FB- Doug

Many decades ago I was in a junior role at the top of (i.e. front row seat for the “action” but not really a “player”) a large government department with social services mandate. I then spent a few decades in general management and operational leadership roles. So I’m using those lenses to think about how to manage a “whole of government response” to Covid 19.  My thoughts are clearly Monday morning quarter backing and not meant to denigrate current efforts.

It seems to me this is a basic operations problem of capacity management facing volatile demand.

Lower the peak demand

Flatten the curve to reduce peak demand from Covid 19 (handwashing and social distancing, minimize travel to delay cross community contagion)

Delay all non critical health care procedures – especially ones that might involve ventilators or overnight stays

Add capacity (in order of priority)

Bio hazard gear (requisition/repurpose and ramp up manufacturing) and housekeeping supplies (easy to get but no point with anything else if you can’t keep basic hygiene up)

Ventilators - (requisition/repurpose and ramp up manufacturing) add manual ventilators/old fashioned approaches...WWII type debottlenecking and prioritization. Work with existing suppliers to line up capacity and supply chain behind them after maxing that look to repurpose similar production capability. Ventilators are not stuff you build in your basement but they are not really complicated as medical devices go

Rooms/wards – repurpose dorms and schools and military bases

Oxygen - (requisition/repurpose and ramp up manufacturing) add manual ventilators/old fashioned approaches – you don’t need piped in oxygen a la typical 21st century hospital – that’s nice but you can make do with tanks and regulators (requisition from welding, food industry, diving etc.)

Staff - bring in all the trained staff you can starting with adjacent medical disciplines and students, then add in "nonprofessional staff" - if a function can be performed by a "nonprofessional" or lower skilled then off load it from most constrained roles

Beds and if possible sheepskins and gel pads – the critically ill are prone to bed sores but they won’t die from that during a three week covid 19 treatment period

Address future waves – eliminate or curtail demand, throw resources at developing, testing and distributing treatment meds  and immunization

Mitigate in crisis economic impact through direct aid to most disadvantaged

Reboot the economy – GFC like intervention

Deep reflection on lessons learned and fundamental changes to improve response in future crises

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Based on what has been cancelled and what I see being cancelled very soon

NOOD

SDYC Opening Day Race

N2E

Yachting Cup

 Getting worried about California Off-Shore Race Week in June

 

 

 

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My son was told by NYU to get his stuff out of the dorm in 48 hours. He hears they want to have the capacity for hospital beds. 

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Remembeer the music in TITANIC with Kate Winslet? That has been running in my head every time I hear about the coming flood of cases.

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9 hours ago, TheDragon said:

This sucks on every level, but personally, I just bailed on an attempt at Panama Canal transit as they have nearly shut everything down there, plus French Polynesia has made it pointless to even head there. I get back to Illinois, having sold my lake boat the day before I headed to Panama, only to find my little local lake completely shut to recreation of any kind.

What lake?

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2 hours ago, KC375 said:

Staff - bring in all the trained staff you can starting with adjacent medical disciplines and students, then add in "nonprofessional staff" - if a function can be performed by a "nonprofessional" or lower skilled then off load it from most constrained roles

Great explanation. Staffing is going to be a serious bottleneck.  Absenteeism as staff get sick, exhaustion and low moral will be taking staff offline as the crisis intensifies. Organizing low skilled workers takes high skilled workers off the line. Right now is the best time to be doing that kind of work.

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6 minutes ago, weightless said:

Great explanation. Staffing is going to be a serious bottleneck.  Absenteeism as staff get sick, exhaustion and low moral will be taking staff offline as the crisis intensifies. Organizing low skilled workers takes high skilled workers off the line. Right now is the best time to be doing that kind of work.

I forgot to add "leadership" - often medical professionals are brilliant leaders....sometimes less so. In a crisis like this you want to find the medical professionals who can lead and motivate...and or supplant/support them with people used to leading large groups of people under duress (military experience can be really really useful here as can business leaders who've gotten through crisis turnarounds) as long as "people leadership" defers to medical and scientific expertise

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48 minutes ago, fan said:

Based on what has been cancelled and what I see being cancelled very soon

NOOD

SDYC Opening Day Race

N2E

Yachting Cup

 Getting worried about California Off-Shore Race Week in June

 

 

 

Bet Cal Offshore is off. Sad times.

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Was really looking forward to the Finn Masters in the Netherlands, all paid, new sail... Oh well, I will do something else but really bummed. 
 

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5 hours ago, KC375 said:

Your post has a good chance of taking this discussion to PA...but what the hell...

There are a lot of US structural and organizational factors that have made the challenge greater but fundamentally those can’t be addressed quickly enough so the following equation needs to be addressed within the current constraints.

The basic public policy question is

Is A > B – C?

Where

A = the harm mitigated by flattening the curve.

 If the curve flattening is fully effective (keeps demand below peak/expanded supply) the best case is still not great. Until meds to treat, herd immunity and or vaccine

70-80% of population will get it...

for 80% it may not be much worse than a really awful flu (remember influenza is still deadly)...that is they won't have signs of pneumonia or significant respiratory distress

 

3-5% will die – mostly over 70 smokers, CVD, diabetes, asthma...

~ 2-3% population fatality rate...

An aspect of flattening the curve is delaying the infection of some until meds and vaccine available. The other effect is avoid the results of exceeding healthcare capacity. That is not just about the extra deaths from Covid 19. It is also about the extra deaths caused from other patients with critical conditions denied treatment for lack of capacity. The biggest effect would be on critical conditions involving ventilators (that’s a lot of them) but also from exhausted other medical resources. For Covid 19 it looks like 5% of infected are classed critical and about half the critical die. For the portion of the infected critical population that exceeds health care capacity I think you can assume 100% mortality. The effect could be calculated with more than a little uncertainty.

B = effect of the economic harm caused by social distancing and other techniques used to achieve A.

C = economic harm caused by an unconstrained epidemic in the US (this is a variable left out of your post)

B and C are real – particularly in a country with poor social safety net – but hard to calculate.

There may be a D to factor in.

I'm also quoting from BBC's Radio 4 which had someone on today pointing out that the lockdown in China has saved maybe 50,000 lives by virtue of the huge reduction in pollution.

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I think I'll take my rowboat down to the beach and start using it. Because I can.

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6 hours ago, KC375 said:

....

It seems to me this is a basic operations problem of capacity management facing volatile demand.

Lower the peak demand

....

Add capacity (in order of priority)

....

oops – I forgot (at least) one area of capacity increase needed, especially if you don’t flatten the curve.

Photo below is of the construction underway to double capacity of Westminster Public Mortuary. I’m guessing given the spikiness of the curve the UK is on that merely doubling won’t be enough.

26125546-8126753-The_capacity_of_Westmin

26126166-8126753-image-a-31_158454646662

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3 hours ago, KC375 said:

I forgot to add "leadership" - often medical professionals are brilliant leaders....sometimes less so. In a crisis like this you want to find the medical professionals who can lead and motivate...and or supplant/support them with people used to leading large groups of people under duress (military experience can be really really useful here as can business leaders who've gotten through crisis turnarounds) as long as "people leadership" defers to medical and scientific expertise

There may be a supply of "skilled" folks that can do non-skilled stuff.  I told the LFW that if my workplace gets closed (probably not -- essential industry), I'd volunteer to mop floors or whatever at a hospital when the time comes.  I can do that. 

I would imagine that college kids can, too.

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9 minutes ago, bplipschitz said:

There may be a supply of "skilled" folks that can do non-skilled stuff.  I told the LFW that if my workplace gets closed (probably not -- essential industry), I'd volunteer to mop floors or whatever at a hospital when the time comes.  I can do that. 

I would imagine that college kids can, too.

Thanks for your leadership.

Agreed. For the absence of doubt when I referred to "lower skill" it was relative to particular medical practices and was frankly a poor choice of words, just tone deaf. I should have written untrained.

I've learned from my time in operating environments (e.g. pulp and paper mills)  "low skill" jobs often require great skill and finesse and people in "low skilled" jobs often have great skills they apply elsewhere. The occupant of one of the "lower skill" jobs at the mill ran the volunteer fire department and applied his skills in saving more than a few lives over the years. 

To your point in the time of crisis we should all just pitch in where and when we can whether or not that uses our "particular skills" or just filling sand bags.

 

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club is closed for all social and sailing collective activities, but you can get to your boat and go sailing by your own.

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5 hours ago, KC375 said:

I forgot to add "leadership" - often medical professionals are brilliant leaders....sometimes less so. In a crisis like this you want to find the medical professionals who can lead and motivate...and or supplant/support them with people used to leading large groups of people under duress (military experience can be really really useful here as can business leaders who've gotten through crisis turnarounds) as long as "people leadership" defers to medical and scientific expertise

Yes, this issue is almost inherently PA to some degree which just complicates things.  Allowing medical and scientific experts to take a greater leadership role in times like these can help people come together and cooperate.

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I wonder if the Vallejo Race is gonna be cancelled. It's the last weekend in April...probably so.

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1 hour ago, Alan H said:

I wonder if the Vallejo Race is gonna be cancelled. It's the last weekend in April...probably so.

Announced a few days ago will be moved to October

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13 hours ago, KC375 said:

Your post has a good chance of taking this discussion to PA...but what the hell...

There are a lot of US structural and organizational factors that have made the challenge greater but fundamentally those can’t be addressed quickly enough so the following equation needs to be addressed within the current constraints.

The basic public policy question is

Is A > B – C?

Where

A = the harm mitigated by flattening the curve.

 If the curve flattening is fully effective (keeps demand below peak/expanded supply) the best case is still not great. Until meds to treat, herd immunity and or vaccine

70-80% of population will get it...

for 80% it may not be much worse than a really awful flu (remember influenza is still deadly)...that is they won't have signs of pneumonia or significant respiratory distress

 

3-5% will die – mostly over 70 smokers, CVD, diabetes, asthma...

~ 2-3% population fatality rate...

An aspect of flattening the curve is delaying the infection of some until meds and vaccine available. The other effect is avoid the results of exceeding healthcare capacity. That is not just about the extra deaths from Covid 19. It is also about the extra deaths caused from other patients with critical conditions denied treatment for lack of capacity. The biggest effect would be on critical conditions involving ventilators (that’s a lot of them) but also from exhausted other medical resources. For Covid 19 it looks like 5% of infected are classed critical and about half the critical die. For the portion of the infected critical population that exceeds health care capacity I think you can assume 100% mortality. The effect could be calculated with more than a little uncertainty.

B = effect of the economic harm caused by social distancing and other techniques used to achieve A.

C = economic harm caused by an unconstrained epidemic in the US (this is a variable left out of your post)

B and C are real – particularly in a country with poor social safety net – but hard to calculate.

 

12 hours ago, Tharsheblows said:

@KC375 good explanation

 

12 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

That seems a bit extreme!

 

Yes, he put it quite clearly. This morning on radio BBC, there was an Italian doctor talking about what they're experiencing, one month into the start of the wave of actual cases. Hospital parking lots are being turned into tent cities because of a tide of people coming in. He said "Perhaps the rate of increase is beginning to slow but we are still getting further behind in treating paitents, and we have been training anybody willing to help to go thru the incoming patients to find those we can help."

In other words, if this ramps up in the US unchecked, you will die if you have any other health emergency because you will not get care. We have less hospital availability per capita than Italy. The US is about 3 weeks behind Italy in rate of infection, which means if we can hammer it NOW... as in shutting it down yesterday... we have a good chance.

"Flattening the curve" (new buzz phrase) is not a cure, it's slowing the rate of increase of new cases such that the health care system is not swamped.

Remember a key point is that people can get infected, and start spreading it, for several days before they start to show symptoms, before they realize they are sick.

What is the cost of shutting it down versus letting it run? It's going to grind to halt anyway. Do you want to wear out the brakes or do you want to just crash head-on?

FB- Doug

 

12 hours ago, KC375 said:

and so far we've avoid PA, a place that scares me and I've been in some scary places.

And to explain KC's post in 5 charts.

This is why two blonde dipshits shat their pants on Monday, did a massive UTurn on their light-touch political response and suddenly taking notice of the science and what occured in China and Italy. 

Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team - 16 March 2020 Report  

18 March New York Times - Behind the Virus Report That Jarred the U.S. and the U.K. to Action

The only UTurn difference being the fool in the White House at least acknowledged the science/this report and the fool at Downing Street hasn't and is now trying to "cover-up" there hasn't been a delayed, massively reckless & incompetent response by his Government that has already set in train deaths that it is too late to reverse, noting the UK is ahead of the US on the curve.

Testing: This Testing Chart is dated 8 March. US is now 34 persons and UK 400 persons per Million and both trying to ramp up, albeit from a slow start.

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blog_imperial_college_critical_care_beds.thumb.jpg.7b975618ae8a8944600f3485e8187229.jpgblog_imperial_college_worst_case.thumb.jpg.f8d05e38b984fd772ba7e291930ad857.jpgblog_imperial_college_deaths.gif.e3d28b3d49b905f2a100aa6e0752ded5.gif

ETRSdK5WAAcKYpS.jpeg.de53d11824e9648f8772408b9fe1ec46.jpeg

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9 hours ago, bplipschitz said:

What lake?

Clinton Lake between Champaign/Urbana, Decatur, and Bloomington/Normal. Chains across all entrances to launches and our marina. Makes no sense at all, they even threaten to fine those of us who want to go kitesurfing from non-standard launch locations, which is a particularly "social distance" activity.

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2 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

Clinton Lake between Champaign/Urbana, Decatur, and Bloomington/Normal. Chains across all entrances to launches and our marina. Makes no sense at all, they even threaten to fine those of us who want to go kitesurfing from non-standard launch locations, which is a particularly "social distance" activity.

If you cant do anything effective, do something ineffective as long as its public. It makes people feel good, and if they saw you having fun on a boat by yourself, they would be mad. 

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8 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

If you cant do anything effective, do something ineffective as long as its public. It makes people feel good, and if they saw you having fun on a boat by yourself, they would be mad. 

There seems to be some confusion between shutting down facilities where people come into close contact and interact and just shutting down facilities for the hell of it. 

I would not be surprised if the logic was that because the park rangers, and/or whoever else would come help you if you were in trouble, are not at work we should stop people from entering the lake all together.  Forget an "enter at your own risk" approach.

I think part of the reason I like sailing in the ocean is that you are so far away from most people that there are fewer people trying to tell you what to do all the time.

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9 hours ago, TheDragon said:

Clinton Lake between Champaign/Urbana, Decatur, and Bloomington/Normal. Chains across all entrances to launches and our marina. Makes no sense at all, they even threaten to fine those of us who want to go kitesurfing from non-standard launch locations, which is a particularly "social distance" activity.

So far, the marina I frequent on Carlyle is open.  I'm sure that will change.

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The rationing of testing continues. Public Health FAIL.

Son's room mate in NYC tests POSITIVE. My son came back from NY on last Friday. His room mate felt bad Tuesday. He tested positive today Thursday.

Connecticut says, "yeah, we don't have enough kits. We only test 60 or over with symptoms including cough."

So basically as I said before, they GAVE UP on contact tracing.

Period.

This whole situation is going to blow us all up.

If we'd done TESTING FROM THE BEGINNING instead of playing HANNITY conspiracy bullshit and presidential dithering, we could have closed the borders, traced the shit out of all the cases, tested, traced, contained, and worked our asses off to prevent a pandemic. Instead, here we are.

Maybe I'm just creating wishful shoulda coulda thinking.  Heck it went Pandemic in freaking China in gonddamned last year and the fucking Communist fuckers wouldn't let anyone know what was coming.

Crazy right? SARS was shut down. But that was before this She Jing Ping fucker.
Do you know what SARS would have done as a pandemic??>>

China has 20,000 "wild animal food farms."  This shit keeps happening because the Chinese leaders are fucking Ostriches and nobody will pressure them. SARS was enough to have made a call for that shit to get shut down.

Well, as someone else said here on SA, "we are a virus."

 

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21 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

This shit keeps happening because the Chinese leaders are fucking Ostriches

Allegedly.  *Allegedly*. . .

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18 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

The rationing of testing continues. Public Health FAIL.

Son's room mate in NYC tests POSITIVE. My son came back from NY on last Friday. His room mate felt bad Tuesday. He tested positive today Thursday.

Connecticut says, "yeah, we don't have enough kits. We only test 60 or over with symptoms including cough."

So basically as I said before, they GAVE UP on contact tracing.

Period.

This whole situation is going to blow us all up.

If we'd done TESTING FROM THE BEGINNING instead of playing HANNITY conspiracy bullshit and presidential dithering, we could have closed the borders, traced the shit out of all the cases, tested, traced, contained, and worked our asses off to prevent a pandemic. Instead, here we are.

Maybe I'm just creating wishful shoulda coulda thinking.  Heck it went Pandemic in freaking China in gonddamned last year and the fucking Communist fuckers wouldn't let anyone know what was coming.

Crazy right? SARS was shut down. But that was before this She Jing Ping fucker.
Do you know what SARS would have done as a pandemic??>>

China has 20,000 "wild animal food farms."  This shit keeps happening because the Chinese leaders are fucking Ostriches and nobody will pressure them. SARS was enough to have made a call for that shit to get shut down.

Well, as someone else said here on SA, "we are a virus."

 

Best wishes for your son... the situation is crazy. My wife and I were discussing this morning, the possibility that this is the first wave of 'new era' pandemic where nature's ability to generate new diseases has outstripped our ability to cure. We got the drop on the old classic diseases that have scourged mankind since before history began, but the door was always open for the next wave and there's a limit to what we can research & discover... and there's damn sure a hard limit to what stupid-ass liars running the government can do.

This was going to happen anyway. It's doesn't help to know that it's a lot worse than it needed to be.

One more- those of you thinking the damage to the economy is greater than the damage done by the Covid-19 epidemic... what makes you think an epidemic is going to leave the economy humming along nicely? Lotsa sick people not able to work, sudden panic over spreading sickness, more sudden and severe shortages than we already have... yeah it'd be great!

FB- Doug

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13 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Best wishes for your son... the situation is crazy. My wife and I were discussing this morning, the possibility that this is the first wave of 'new era' pandemic where nature's ability to generate new diseases has outstripped our ability to cure. We got the drop on the old classic diseases that have scourged mankind since before history began, but the door was always open for the next wave and there's a limit to what we can research & discover... and there's damn sure a hard limit to what stupid-ass liars running the government can do.

This was going to happen anyway. It's doesn't help to know that it's a lot worse than it needed to be.

One more- those of you thinking the damage to the economy is greater than the damage done by the Covid-19 epidemic... what makes you think an epidemic is going to leave the economy humming along nicely? Lotsa sick people not able to work, sudden panic over spreading sickness, more sudden and severe shortages than we already have... yeah it'd be great!

FB- Doug

I have a simple calculus for that concept.
We know that COVID19 has approximately a 15% critical care load total (correct me please if I get this wrong) Those are ventilirators. In the absence of hospitals, a large fracto of those patients would die. So say 10% mortality rate versus 1%. Yes it skews towards the older but some middle agers would be taken down. So across the world, assuming it quiets down at 75% infection, then you'd have 7.8 E9   X   0.75   X 0.1  =  562 MILLION dead.  If this pandemic sorts out at 1% total at 75% infected, we are looking at 58 MILLION!   This is a staggering economic issue. If medicine collapses over significant portions of the human population (expected) then we won't be limited to the 1% figure...........I daresay that's some serious economic impact following on from that.
The key to recovery is to recover!  Get back to the work of living building trading and doing as soon as possible. If only those who have recovered could sprout halos. Then they could get busy without scaring all the rest who are afraid of getting sick!

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I believe the 15% load is for hospitalization but the ICU load (with ventilators) is closer to 5%. Nevertheless, your analysis is valid.

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25 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

I have a simple calculus for that concept.
We know that COVID19 has approximately a 15% critical care load total (correct me please if I get this wrong) Those are ventilirators. In the absence of hospitals, a large fracto of those patients would die. So say 10% mortality rate versus 1%. Yes it skews towards the older but some middle agers would be taken down. So across the world, assuming it quiets down at 75% infection, then you'd have 7.8 E9   X   0.75   X 0.1  =  562 MILLION dead.  If this pandemic sorts out at 1% total at 75% infected, we are looking at 58 MILLION!   This is a staggering economic issue. If medicine collapses over significant portions of the human population (expected) then we won't be limited to the 1% figure...........I daresay that's some serious economic impact following on from that.
The key to recovery is to recover!  Get back to the work of living building trading and doing as soon as possible. If only those who have recovered could sprout halos. Then they could get busy without scaring all the rest who are afraid of getting sick!

I will acknowledge that we don't now the numbers yet but in China, with a population of 1.3 billion, they have a death toll of 3,245 and they seems to be over the worst of it...so based on those crude numbers with lots of assumptions, I think 58 million is way high.  25,000 dead worldwide when this is all over seems more likely.

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People need to keep in mind that until we have a vaccine to confer immunity or sufficient herd immunity from infection/recovery, both of which will require 18 months or more, the virus is still going to be infecting people. "Flattening the curve" just means that you turn a narrow, sharp curve into a wide, shallow curve so you don't overwhelm the hospitals. However, the area under both curves is the same. With the healthcare system functional, you can expect that ~1-2% fatality rate. With the hospitals overwhelmed, you can expect a much higher fatality rate but even the flat curve yields millions of fatalities worldwide.

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1 hour ago, Tharsheblows said:

I will acknowledge that we don't now the numbers yet but in China, with a population of 1.3 billion, they have a death toll of 3,245 and they seems to be over the worst of it...so based on those crude numbers with lots of assumptions, I think 58 million is way high.  25,000 dead worldwide when this is all over seems more likely.

I think you lot better look to Italy. They have reached the point they can help them all. So a sudden spike of deaths. 

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1 hour ago, Tharsheblows said:

I will acknowledge that we don't now the numbers yet but in China, with a population of 1.3 billion, they have a death toll of 3,245 and they seems to be over the worst of it...so based on those crude numbers with lots of assumptions, I think 58 million is way high.  25,000 dead worldwide when this is all over seems more likely.

That's an absurdly naive look at it  I'm afraid. 25k? HA! multiply by at least 100.

US death rate accellerating. Infections gonne up REALLY FASt and that's without testing! Just people in Hospital!

This is a pandemic, not an epidemic. The entire rest of China WILL get the virus in time.  Extrapolate even at 1/2% to 70% of China--that's 5 million dead. Just in China. It may take a year or two but it will happen. Might even be 2%! Then you have rest of world. You know, like for instance Congo...or Chad...or former Rhodesia...Malaysia...Afghanistan...Somalia....good luck keeping the death rate down in some of those places!

I would LOVE to see this "contained" as in what can be done with an epidemic with some luck and a crapload of hard work with contact tracing quarrantine and testing. But we've jumped way way past that. Here in the "advanced" US we do not have anything even remotely like "contact tracing." They've GIVEN IN TO REALITY OF PANDEMIC>>>>>ALL will get infected and ONLY HOPE is to slow rate of recruitment to save lives-->>>factor of easily 5 to 10 on that!

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On 3/17/2020 at 7:08 AM, socalrider said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

This is a really good explanation of the difference between quarantine and social distancing, and why the latter is important right now.  

Edit: beat me to it!

From the marina I'm staying at yesterday...you CAN fly and sail into NZ, but you will be in "Self Isolation" for 14 days.

Quote

If you or your crew are arriving into New Zealand, our marina is permitting you to self-isolate for the required 14 days on your vessel under these strict conditions.

Self-isolation is one of the most effective ways we have of keeping our communities safe and healthy and stopping the spread of COVID-19.

You are to use your own facilities on your vessel (Showers & Toilets & clothes washing), there is a pump out station located at Riverside Drive Marina. At no time are you allowed to use our shared facilities.

If you do not have a holding tank you will need to either take hotel accommodation or anchor 500m from land. The Marina remains a NO DISCHARGE zone. We will allow discharge of grey water (shower & washing).

 

For information on Self-isolating please see attached or visit:

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus

Contact Healthline for free on 0800 358 5453 if you begin to feel unwell. The symptoms of COVID-19 are cough, fever, and shortness of breath. You must tell the marina if you are unwell so we can assist.

 

Provisioning – You can request online deliveries to the marina office and we will organise delivery to your boat.  https://shop.countdown.co.nz/   https://www.paknsaveonline.co.nz/

Hopefully you have a friend or neighbour who can assist with shopping the essentials though as these services are getting very booked.

If you go for a walk off the boat? Do not touch any surfaces e.g. gangway or gates. And remember to keep a 2m space between you and others. 

                                                                  

If you do not follow these conditions?  You will be asked to leave the marina, with or without your boat until your required 14 days is completed. Note: These conditions could change at any time.

Please do the right thing, and relax a while, whilst helping us keep this virus out of NZ. If you need help in anyway our Marina team is here to assist.

 

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2 hours ago, Tharsheblows said:

I will acknowledge that we don't now the numbers yet but in China, with a population of 1.3 billion, they have a death toll of 3,245 and they seems to be over the worst of it...so based on those crude numbers with lots of assumptions, I think 58 million is way high.  25,000 dead worldwide when this is all over seems more likely.

China basically locked about 11 Million people in their homes. Apparently they did things like track cell phones to the extent that if one of those people left the quarantine area they got a call or someone stopped them and turned them around.

I'm not sure we're up for quite such extreme measures in the US.

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3 hours ago, IStream said:

I believe the 15% load is for hospitalization but the ICU load (with ventilators) is closer to 5%. Nevertheless, your analysis is valid.

 

Ventilators merely prolong the suffering.  For non COVID cases, the death rate after one year, is 70%.  Recovery from this virus after being on a ventilator is in the single digits and lung damage is likely permanent.  Whether fatal or debilitating is not known but you really don't 'get over it' after intubation. Virus, maybe but consequences? No.

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20 minutes ago, Veeger said:

 

Ventilators merely prolong the suffering.  For non COVID cases, the death rate after one year, is 70%.  Recovery from this virus after being on a ventilator is in the single digits and lung damage is likely permanent.  Whether fatal or debilitating is not known but you really don't 'get over it' after intubation. Virus, maybe but consequences? No.

Can you point to source of that information?

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1 hour ago, gewoon ik said:
3 hours ago, Tharsheblows said:

I will acknowledge that we don't now the numbers yet but in China, with a population of 1.3 billion, they have a death toll of 3,245 and they seems to be over the worst of it...so based on those crude numbers with lots of assumptions, I think 58 million is way high.  25,000 dead worldwide when this is all over seems more likely.

I think you lot better look to Italy. They have reached the point they can help them all. So a sudden spike of deaths. 

Back in December, China launched a crash project to build a few large hospitals just for this. They were also doing a LOT more testing. That was about at the same point the US is now.

Look at the number of USAnians who refuse to wake up, and tell me how this going to play out

I would love to be wrong

- DSK

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19 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

Can you point to source of that information?

Fastyacht,  valid question.  Thought I could but either the link is gone or I'm missing it.  Did find a thread discussing the very positive outcomes of Chloroquine and Zithromycin, even with a ventilator.  I assume your son is home with you now?  Therefore feeling a bit vulnerable, I'd imagine.  

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11 minutes ago, Veeger said:

Fastyacht,  valid question.  Thought I could but either the link is gone or I'm missing it.  Did find a thread discussing the very positive outcomes of Chloroquine and Zithromycin, even with a ventilator.  I assume your son is home with you now?  Therefore feeling a bit vulnerable, I'd imagine.  

And a friend just called from the Hospital. He's got it and we are crossing our fingers.

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1 hour ago, Veeger said:

 

Ventilators merely prolong the suffering.  For non COVID cases, the death rate after one year, is 70%.  Recovery from this virus after being on a ventilator is in the single digits and lung damage is likely permanent.  Whether fatal or debilitating is not known but you really don't 'get over it' after intubation. Virus, maybe but consequences? No.

It is way to early in this epidemic for long term health prognosis information to be available - particularly when the general population is so diversified. People pushing that narrative are just pushing for "triage the sick and let them die" and party on with the economy. 

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Frostbite races cancelled the next 2 Sundays.  YC's closed, but some allow you to pick up take-out meals in the parking lot.  Most Restaurants closed.

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51 minutes ago, Miffy said:

It is way to early in this epidemic for long term health prognosis information to be available - particularly when the general population is so diversified. People pushing that narrative are just pushing for "triage the sick and let them die" and party on with the economy. 

Tis a true statement you make, albeit a trifle dismissive of that opinion.  I fall in 'that' category.  Not because I am callous but precisely because I'm not.  I genuinely believe that  a)  a 15 or 30 day hold on the economy won't solve the issue of significant widespread deaths and illness   b) the economy simply cannot survive a prolonged 60-90-120 hold as we're going through now  c) The 'economy' getting thrashed for a generation to come will create more poverty, more deaths and more despair than simply letting 'them die'.  Neither choice makes anyone feel very good but sometimes trying to avoid pain creates a whole lot more pain.

Anyway, if we're shut down as a country for 30 days or more, check back in with me in August, and again after next year's flue season.  One of us will have a very different opinion by then...   (I'd be very happy to be wrong...)

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8 minutes ago, Veeger said:

c) The 'economy' getting thrashed for a generation to come will create more poverty, more deaths and more despair than simply letting 'them die'.  Neither choice makes anyone feel very good but sometimes trying to avoid pain creates a whole lot more pain.

The economy keeps us fed. If we stop it most of us will starve.

There has to be some kind of balance.

It's worth a great deal to stop this if we can and it may be that ROK has found a sustainable balance.

The worst outcome is that it burns hot enough to overwhelm the health system and we destroy the economy. 

If the health care capacity is well below the flat curve it buys some time but doesn't save a lot of lives.

Flattening the curve comes at enormous cost in lives and wealth.

image.thumb.png.8ae0dc12b660a518dab20ff340ca8fee.png

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1 hour ago, billy backstay said:

Frostbite races cancelled the next 2 Sundays.  YC's closed, but some allow you to pick up take-out meals in the parking lot.  Most Restaurants closed.

Our club closed as well. There was a rib fest scheduled for tonight.  Now available take out only.  You pull up to the gate leading to the galley and someone brings your food out to you.  You drive away.  Saturday was supposed to be the St. Patrick’s Day corned beef and cabbage.  Same deal.  But this time the Commodore herself will bring your dinners to you and put them in the trunk of your car.  Just what I need, a car trunk smelling of boiled cabbage.

Board of Directors will be discussing waiving or otherwise amending our required monthly spending charges since the place is closed.

Just about all of our restaurants are closed or doing drive through only.  

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10 minutes ago, weightless said:

The economy keeps us fed. If we stop it most of us will starve.

There has to be some kind of balance.

It's worth a great deal to stop this if we can and it may be that ROK has found a sustainable balance.

The worst outcome is that it burns hot enough to overwhelm the health system and we destroy the economy. 

If the health care capacity is well below the flat curve it buys some time but doesn't save a lot of lives.

Flattening the curve comes at enormous cost in lives and wealth.

image.thumb.png.8ae0dc12b660a518dab20ff340ca8fee.png

That study done in the UK that scared both Drumpf and Blondie into action showed that even with flattening we are in for 8X overage on resources.

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1 hour ago, Veeger said:

Tis a true statement you make, albeit a trifle dismissive of that opinion.  I fall in 'that' category.  Not because I am callous but precisely because I'm not.  I genuinely believe that  a)  a 15 or 30 day hold on the economy won't solve the issue of significant widespread deaths and illness   b) the economy simply cannot survive a prolonged 60-90-120 hold as we're going through now  c) The 'economy' getting thrashed for a generation to come will create more poverty, more deaths and more despair than simply letting 'them die'.  Neither choice makes anyone feel very good but sometimes trying to avoid pain creates a whole lot more pain.

Anyway, if we're shut down as a country for 30 days or more, check back in with me in August, and again after next year's flue season.  One of us will have a very different opinion by then...   (I'd be very happy to be wrong...)

I think that 2 weeks ago, a 15-day shutdown would have been effective in stopping the spread of the virus. Now, I think it's too little, too late; we're barely going to flatten the curve if at all.

As for the damage of shutting down the economy, what will a raging epidemic do?

Not picking on you personally, I've been asking this of everybody who proposes that we are doing too much about the pandemic and damaging the economy.

FB- Doug

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