TheDragon

How has the coronavirus COVID-19 affected your sailing?

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Tharsheblows said:

image.thumb.png.8aeb660b14d68844c402f5cb0848a28d.png

This curve is largely good news.  Could there be be another wave?  Sure, maybe.  But this is not currently an exponential curve.

 

What happens when people are allowed to return to a normal life?  Same thing will happen here.  Pence was talking about being 6 days into his 15 day plan.  Does he think that when the curve is flattened we can all come out of hiding? 

The virus will run its course unless everyone self-isolates until it is eradicated due to lack of hosts, if that is even possible.  Most likely is it will run its course.  We may flatten the curve but everyone who has not come into contact with the virus most likely will at some time, just later down the road. 

Maybe we find a vaccine and can do to it what we did to polio and smallpox before it reaches every corner of the earth.  But if it morphs like so many other viruses, we're stuck with it permanently.  It could end up being very much like the flu. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Jules said:

What happens when people are allowed to return to a normal life?  Same thing will happen here.  Pence was talking about being 6 days into his 15 day plan.  Does he think that when the curve is flattened we can all come out of hiding? 

The virus will run its course unless everyone self-isolates until it is eradicated due to lack of hosts, if that is even possible.  Most likely is it will run its course.  We may flatten the curve but everyone who has not come into contact with the virus most likely will at some time, just later down the road. 

Maybe we find a vaccine and can do to it what we did to polio and smallpox before it reaches every corner of the earth.  But if it morphs like so many other viruses, we're stuck with it permanently.  It could end up being very much like the flu. 

Yes, H1N1 is now part of our yearly flu season.  Unfortunately, this virus might do the same. 

When everyone goes back to work we will likely see an uptick in cases again but hopefully enough people will have exposure that the uptick will be smaller and our medical professionals can give adequate care to all of them.  We will see.

Another assumption that we are hoping is true is that the virus will not be as prolific when summer arrives (like flu season). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Veeger said:

There's been something like 190,000 tests completed thus far.  That's a tiny fraction of a percent.  We can't use any of the numbers we have so far to predict how this thing will spread or where it will go. 

Fauci said it's possible it's aerosolized.  :o  That's how much we actually know right now.  Almost nothing. 

The best we can do for the time being is practice good hygiene and social distancing to slow the spread in hopes the medical community can keep up with this.  Predictions right now are nothing more than speculation.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

 

Its important to note that the Italian numbers are not exponential either.  It looks closer to linear which is a win for an infectious virus.  The Iranian numbers (which present the same trustworthy issues as the Chinese numbers) are flattening out.

 

image.thumb.png.c5069fe905c6083214358e213cdd29cc.png

 

image.thumb.png.669f1c83eabd582da02908f2c32fa538.png

The italian were most definitely exponential. But slowed the last 5 days of that series. Remember that a natural progression of disease is only exponential when the number of infeted is small. IT goes to a bell curve as a significant portion of the population is previously infected.  elow I plot the whole series, followed by just hte first 20 days so you can see the exponential curve fit

image.thumb.png.9f1b8af1e106cf7a42d837839af57d51.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Tharsheblows said:

Just saying the evidence (as in what is actually happening) does not show a more contagious or virulent disease than the flu using the CDC's numbers on the flu.

Dude, the time to do something about a bomb is before it explodes. Sure, nobody is harmed before it goes up. That misses the point.

The data is terrifying. If you're not getting that answer you're getting a different answer than the experts. So, you should check your math and assumptions. If you don't want to do that consider the anecdotal evidence starting to come in:

eg: https://www.propublica.org/article/a-medical-worker-describes--terrifying-lung-failure-from-covid19-even-in-his-young-patients?utm_source=digg

image.thumb.png.c3355474dc42ab4baf8fc3f861f6bf19.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, weightless said:

Dude, the time to do something about a bomb is before it explodes. Sure, nobody is harmed before it goes up. That misses the point.

The data is terrifying. If you're not getting that answer you're getting a different answer than the experts. So, you should check your math and assumptions. If you don't want to do that consider the anecdotal evidence starting to come in:

eg: https://www.propublica.org/article/a-medical-worker-describes--terrifying-lung-failure-from-covid19-even-in-his-young-patients?utm_source=digg

image.thumb.png.c3355474dc42ab4baf8fc3f861f6bf19.png

That's a pretty awful story.  There is no doubt that dying of the virus is awful.  My optimism is based mostly on the numbers and the assumption that the Chinese numbers are generally true.  It has been correctly pointed out to me that it might be a terrible assumption. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

Some points may be a bit overstated but he/she is generally correct about much of this.

It's great, and he is, umm, well qualified for financial analysis.  he has been forecasting 'the big one' every year for 20 years.  He has been right twice now.

He also says he invented the tea party.

I think you may have a problem identifying credible sources, blows.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

It's great, and he is, umm, well qualified for financial analysis.  he has been forecasting 'the big one' every year for 20 years.  He has been right twice now.

He also says he invented the tea party.

I think you may have a problem identifying credible sources, blows.

 

 

 

I just gave the article a quick read and thought some of the points sounded logical.  I didn't research it at all.  And he is quite emphatic for something that is largely unknown.  As far as I know we have never really shut down the country for a disease before.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Tharsheblows said:

I just gave the article a quick read and thought some of the points sounded logical.  I didn't research it at all.  

I would gently advise you that reading articles without at least understanding the posture of the author is the same as BEING A FUCKING FOOL.

Jesus christ dude, the entire website looks like a caricature of a conspiracy theory.  Critical thinking is a skill that every adult should have and use.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was watching the video clip posted by Istream and a doctor comes to the podium (at about 17:15).  She begins by saying, "Despite doing our best to prepare for a respiratory virus pandemic....

I find that almost funny in light of out shortage of ventilators.  Wouldn't having access ventilators be one of the first things you would do to prepare for a "respiratory virus pandemic." 

I don't know what else we have done to "prepare" but it sounds like we were almost totally unprepared.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

I would gently advise you that reading articles without at least understanding the posture of the author is the same as BEING A FUCKING FOOL.

Jesus christ dude, the entire website looks like a caricature of a conspiracy theory.  Critical thinking is a skill that every adult should have and use.

That is why I said some points are a bit overstated.  But some of his points are very likely true.  Regardless of his reputation (of which I am not aware) he can still be correct about some things.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tharsheblows said:

That is why I said some points are a bit overstated.  But some of his points are very likely true.  Regardless of his reputation (of which I am not aware) he can still be correct about some things.

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The workshop & yard I work on my boat has “temporarily” closed.  30,000 sq ft in the workshops and another ~ 10k in the yard.

Owner said he is concerned the city will close it should they come by and see one of the many kid’s classes being held.   They typically have 5-15 kids per class plus 2 instructors.

In the shops themselves there’s plenty of space around the wood working, welding & metal shops plus the back area is open to allow vehicles into the auto shops.

I thought we’d stay open with the space overall & the type of open floor shop this is.

Kicker here is that the kid class tuitions pay for a lot of the overhead I’m told.   More so than the monthly memberships.

This is a real hit to a fair number of people running their business’ out of this shop.

I needed the yard for the boat.  My shop is in a storage yard that will stay open.

My business (pools) is considered ‘essential’ and, my supplier notified me that  the state/Feds are ok with them doing business as well.

Spent 8 hrs cuising the beach path on my bike.  Sunny & perfect sailing conditions- 10-15 kts onshore.  Easy slide up/down coast.   I saw two boats out there all day.  Beach crowd as you’d see midsummer.

(Chk’d my bank acct and was auto charged  today (per usual) for my monthly fee of $150.    If this continues I’m concerned a fair number of people will cancel monthly fees/ classes and then it’s cliffhanger hanger time for Urban Workshop.)

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Tharsheblows said:

That's a pretty awful story.  There is no doubt that dying of the virus is awful.  My optimism is based mostly on the numbers and the assumption that the Chinese numbers are generally true.  It has been correctly pointed out to me that it might be a terrible assumption. 

it might prove a dangerous assumption...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Trovão said:

it might prove a dangerous assumption...

There are definitely notable statistical anomalies re the reported Chinese stats. Two things stick out like a sore thumb when compared with S Korea which got it around the same time or just after.

First the number of new cases levelling off so sharply before 90K in China over the last few days.  Either this is a result of stamping out the virus or its something else. Secondly the vast gap in reported cases of recovery. Why is it that reported recovery is 5X plus in China v S Korea? Is it the definition of recovery?

1/4th of acute SARS victims had permanent lung damage.

That said I'm hoping that the Chinese stats at least somewhat mirror reality and that the 'wave' has passed over there. Tracking the Euro recovery at the moment, albeit they are at a different stage than China, seems to tell a different story.

Peace and stay safe everyone.

 

edit: I need to rephrase this. The levelling off of new cases v the world. The discrepancy in recovery rates v S Korea is what I meant to say/.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We poured some rum drinks and sat out on the boat tonight. 

Me: If you get laid off, we should take advantage of it.
SO: You mean like sail off and enjoy life?
Me:  Yeah.  We could stock the boat and just cruise. 

So we started a list of what we'd need to do before we left.  As long as neither of us have contracted the virus thus far, this could be a perfect time to get away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Tharsheblows said:

"At this point we have no good evidence that that COVA-19 is "more contagious or virulent" than the flu.  The flu is quite contagious and virulent. "

 

How do you figure?  Are you really, really bad at math or do you just have bad information?

Go look at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

The typical death toll from the flu in the United States is between 12,000 and 60,000.  (See below article quoting CDC numbers for the US)

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year

 

The current death toll from Covid-19 is 276.  My statement is aging perfectly well.

 

I understand that the death toll curve is currently going up, but I also understand that this outbreak seems to be following the curve of other countries that experienced the start of this outbreak earlier and their daily death toll is now either flattening out (Iran) or going way down (China).  Their experience shows that about a 6-8 week curve is likely, with a peak somewhere in week 3 or 4.  We are in approximately week 1. 

If we are lucky enough to continue to follow a similar curve (which does seems likely), we will experience higher daily death tolls for the next 2-3 weeks but it also seems very, very  unlikley that the Covid-19 death toll will exceed the death toll of a mild flu season.

 

Again, my statement is aging perfectly well.  Feel free to to correct me when the Covid-19 death toll passes 12,000 deaths in the United States.

 

 

 

12000 is not too far away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, Jules said:

We poured some rum drinks and sat out on the boat tonight. 

Me: If you get laid off, we should take advantage of it.
SO: You mean like sail off and enjoy life?
Me:  Yeah.  We could stock the boat and just cruise. 

So we started a list of what we'd need to do before we left.  As long as neither of us have contracted the virus thus far, this could be a perfect time to get away.

Except all borders are closing and no one will let you in...

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Tharsheblows said:

That's a pretty awful story.  There is no doubt that dying of the virus is awful.  My optimism is based mostly on the numbers and the assumption that the Chinese numbers are generally true.  It has been correctly pointed out to me that it might be a terrible assumption. 

So, you genuinely think that a disease which overwhelms a country's hospitals and increases it's daily death toll by 40% (as is happening in Italy right now, they ar approximately two weeks ahead of the US) is "no worse than the flu."

Sorry, but I'm done debating politely. You're either deliberately trying to make the plague worse, or you're just really stupid and vicious.

- DSK

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Raz'r said:

Except all borders are closing and no one will let you in...

They could do the 1000 days, and sail around in circles for 3 years!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Raz'r said:

Except all borders are closing and no one will let you in...

No borders to cross.  Just go and see where the wind takes us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Veeger said:

He's not the only one calling for real rate surveying. Mr Brilliant calls for them too (the epidemiologidt).

Ive been especially interested in denominator because I live in CT. Where testing is severely rationed. Is my son infected? NY roomates tested positive. Will never know. He felt bad past 8 days. (He has been here). How come everyone else in house is not sick? Well we'll never know.

You cant predict the inflection if you can't get the denominator!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

He's not the only one calling for real rate surveying. Mr Brilliant calls for them too (the epidemiologidt).

Ive been especially interested in denominator because I live in CT. Where testing is severely rationed. Is my son infected? NY roomates tested positive. Will never know. He felt bad past 8 days. (He has been here). How come everyone else in house is not sick? Well we'll never know.

You cant predict the inflection if you can't get the denominator!

When somebody in the future writes the definitive history of c-19 in the US, I think the chapter on the US failing to build testing capacity will be the most damming.

From a few decades of trying to turnaround, improve, or create operating environments one of the lessons I’ve learned – if you can’t measure it you can’t manage it /  improve it (often attributed to Drucker)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, KC375 said:

When somebody in the future writes the definitive history of c-19 in the US, I think the chapter on the US failing to build testing capacity will be the most damming.

From a few decades of trying to turnaround, improve, or create operating environments one of the lessons I’ve learned – if you can’t measure it you can’t manage it /  improve it (often attributed to Drucker)

Taiwanese, not known to trust the CCP, sent a team to Wuhan in November and December. Activated their emergency response and tried to warn the WHO. 

WHO and the PRC was still obfuscating information thru mid-January (the South Korean and Taiwanese obviously didn’t believe them and did their own preparedness and moved based on intelligence). 
 

The US, is in a peculiar situation of having one of the worst personalities and leadership teams in its entire history helming the ship in a crisis that needs coordinated mature leadership. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Miffy said:

Taiwanese, not known to trust the CCP, sent a team to Wuhan in November and December. Activated their emergency response and tried to warn the WHO. 

WHO and the PRC was still obfuscating information thru mid-January (the South Korean and Taiwanese obviously didn’t believe them and did their own preparedness and moved based on intelligence). 
 

The US, is in a peculiar situation of having one of the worst personalities and leadership teams in its entire history helming the ship in a crisis that needs coordinated mature leadership. 

I don't disagree with your observations about the US challenges with leadership at the moment. As an uninformed but concerned outside observer I think the introspection will need to go much deeper. The failings of the CDC (I think) can't or at least can't fully be blamed on the current party in power. The irrational chauvinisim that insisted the CDC had to be the source of the c-19 testing capability in the US when other effective tests where already available cost time. The CDC incompetence that led to the initial CDC C-19 test failing added further delay. The regulatory framework that delayed private sector labs from offering testing....

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The FDA overcorrected after the lousy public health response by private labs during the Zika epidemic with a lot of false negatives. 

The CDC leadership was never supported and can’t function in a vacuum without WH coordination. It can’t independently put in travel bans. Screenings or authorize beyond regulatory scheme activities. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, silent bob said:

They could do the 1000 days, and sail around in circles for 3 years!

They would need to bring along tons and tons of cheese!

FB- Doug

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, KC375 said:

When somebody in the future writes the definitive history of c-19 in the US, I think the chapter on the US failing to build testing capacity will be the most damming.

From a few decades of trying to turnaround, improve, or create operating environments one of the lessons I’ve learned – if you can’t measure it you can’t manage it /  improve it (often attributed to Drucker)

 

1 hour ago, Miffy said:

Taiwanese, not known to trust the CCP, sent a team to Wuhan in November and December. Activated their emergency response and tried to warn the WHO. 

WHO and the PRC was still obfuscating information thru mid-January (the South Korean and Taiwanese obviously didn’t believe them and did their own preparedness and moved based on intelligence). 

The US, is in a peculiar situation of having one of the worst personalities and leadership teams in its entire history helming the ship in a crisis that needs coordinated mature leadership. 

 

1 hour ago, KC375 said:

I don't disagree with your observations about the US challenges with leadership at the moment. As an uninformed but concerned outside observer I think the introspection will need to go much deeper. The failings of the CDC (I think) can't or at least can't fully be blamed on the current party in power. The irrational chauvinisim that insisted the CDC had to be the source of the c-19 testing capability in the US when other effective tests where already available cost time. The CDC incompetence that led to the initial CDC C-19 test failing added further delay. The regulatory framework that delayed private sector labs from offering testing....

KC you could write that history now.

An absolutely vital number for authorites to know and react to is "Confirmed Cases." In the words of the WHOs Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus:

“We have not seen an urgent enough escalation in testing, isolation and contact tracing, which is the backbone of the response. And to do that, you must test and isolate. You cannot fight the fire blindfolded. And we cannot stop this pandemic, if we don’t know who is infected.

“We have a simple message for all countries Test, test, test. Test every suspected case.” He said the most effective way to prevent infections and save lives was “breaking the chains of transmission”.

Two weeks ago the US figure was 5 tests per million, UK 350, Korea 3,692. Early last week US 35 and UK 500. China at 28 February 2,820. Korea now daylight.

Last Friday

1578681096_images(66).png.dc08efc705a9d6bfa43824474bfdc6d3.png

One week ago.

 

This US House Committee  Republican politician conveniently forgot to say that the reason behind the FDA's advice to reject the Korean test was because like China the virus had not mutated in Korea unlike in the west, so kits not approriate.  Instead he gave the impression the Korean test was inferior in trying to justify their higher testing rate and the Trump Administration's non-existent testing.

China has donated testing kits to Pakistan, Japan & African Union & sent doctors to Iran & Italy. 300 arrived in Italy today.

 

The Korean pudding says it all. As of pm Saturday.

Note that US and UK past the points China, Spain and Italy went into lockdown.

ETqQrUqWsAA6_aq.thumb.jpeg.3418e19b64c0ca696f827a970313ca02.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

...

KC you could write that history now....

 

Jack I respect your optimism, but I don’t share it.

I agree much is already known about the US’s testing failure.

Even focusing just on the testing debacle, I think there is still time for further incompetence to surface over the coming weeks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, KC375 said:

Jack I respect your optimism, but I don’t share it.

I agree much is already known about the US’s testing failure.

Even focusing just on the testing debacle, I think there is still time for further incompetence to surface over the coming weeks.

The early publicized 4 prong assay QA problem is only the tip of the iceberg. The assay only has 1 positive control - the throughput wasn’t well considered during the development (like ya bioresearcher without clinical experience), one nasal and one esophagus sample and live PCR machines commonly with only 72 wells can run something like... once cycle every 3-4 hours. 
 

so basically from February-early March - 9 patients per cycle, 6 or 8 run cycles a day. 
 

It is organizational decision errors made because there isn’t higher decision process re what’s the goal here. 
 

we are hearing that the US intelligence community warned about this to WH and select intl committee in January but political leaders didn’t listen. At the time Trump was busy trying to start a war with Iran. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 A noticable proportion of patients are showing increased liver enzymes(ALT: aminotransferase) in the blood, a marker of liver damage. Greater percentage (approx 50%) of  non-survivors showing elevated ALT but approx 25% of survivors also showing elevated ALT.   Further monitoring will show if this is transient.

Still short on protective equipment , which is probably the greatest bottleneck to testing.  More test kits becoming available on daily basis. Incredible effort by Roche Diagnostics, Quest and LabCorp. If you know someone who works for Roche Diagnostics, give them a socially distant hug.

Please help by physical and social distancing. Thx Eye.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

Still short on protective equipment , which is probably the greatest bottleneck to testing. 

PM Johnson stood up in Parliament last week and  said there stockpiles of PP&E. 

Pretending a decade of health budgets cut to shreds doesn't exist.

This is going to shit before the shitstorm.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And Brexit happened so wonderfully just in time it is every island for themselves. What’s the UK’s PPE production industrial capacity?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, EYESAILOR said:

 A noticable proportion of patients are showing increased liver enzymes(ALT: aminotransferase) in the blood, a marker of liver damage. Greater percentage (approx 50%) of  non-survivors showing elevated ALT but approx 25% of survivors also showing elevated ALT.   Further monitoring will show if this is transient.

Still short on protective equipment , which is probably the greatest bottleneck to testing.  More test kits becoming available on daily basis. Incredible effort by Roche Diagnostics, Quest and LabCorp. If you know someone who works for Roche Diagnostics, give them a socially distant hug.

Please help by physical and social distancing. Thx Eye.

People, listen to Eye Sailor.

She is a front-line medical professional, not involved in any of the politics or spin about this thing and interested only in stopping the spread of it, probably exposing herself to it selflessly, like so many other medics.

Do what the medics say; distancing and hand washing. The only way to decrease the overall number of deaths is to spread  out the rate of infection over time so hat the medics have the capacity to treat as many as possible.

You all know this. Take the personal responsibility to do your bit.

This virus has demonstrated how connected the people of the world actually are. If Eye Sailor or one of her colleagues anywhere in the world gets sick from this, and you could have done more to slow the spread, you are to blame, to some extent.

Do the right thing.

Mrs. Sox is a nurse so I have skin in this game.

(At least I think Eye Sailor is a she, and I think she's a doctor but i am happy to be corrected.)

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, EYESAILOR said:

Still short on protective equipment , which is probably the greatest bottleneck to testing.

The government needs to take control of the purchasing and distribution of necessary items to keep the hoarders from creating shortages.  In particular the PPE healthcare workers need daily, but also to extend to items everyone needs to practice good hygiene.  And that should probably extend all the way out to toilet paper. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Jules said:

The government needs to take control of the purchasing and distribution of necessary items to keep the hoarders from creating shortages.  In particular the PPE healthcare workers need daily, but also to extend to items everyone needs to practice good hygiene.  And that should probably extend all the way out to toilet paper. 

Yeah!  That'll work...  /s

The stores need to limit items to 2 per shopper max...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, Veeger said:

Yeah!  That'll work...  /s

The stores need to limit items to 2 per shopper max...

 

D684F476-19AD-499C-A487-994D0D1C4CA6.jpeg

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, KC375 said:

Jack I respect your optimism, but I don’t share it.

I agree much is already known about the US’s testing failure.

Even focusing just on the testing debacle, I think there is still time for further incompetence to surface over the coming weeks.

Starting at the top.

ETXU2XBWsAQBkAW.jpeg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Veeger said:

Yeah!  That'll work...  /s

The stores need to limit items to 2 per shopper max...

During the war, we had ration cards in the U.S.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

During the war, we had ration cards in the U.S.

For those in the UK their Home Secretary has promised to post them out this week :P

 

ERZDUAzWkAErAbx.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

So, you genuinely think that a disease which overwhelms a country's hospitals and increases it's daily death toll by 40% (as is happening in Italy right now, they ar approximately two weeks ahead of the US) is "no worse than the flu."

Sorry, but I'm done debating politely. You're either deliberately trying to make the plague worse, or you're just really stupid and vicious.

- DSK

We will see who is right in a few weeks.  The flu kills between 12,000-60,000 in the US alone each year.  We are at 400 and climbing today.  Covid-19 may turn out to be worse than the flu but it has a long way to go.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, Jules said:

We poured some rum drinks and sat out on the boat tonight. 

Me: If you get laid off, we should take advantage of it.
SO: You mean like sail off and enjoy life?
Me:  Yeah.  We could stock the boat and just cruise. 

So we started a list of what we'd need to do before we left.  As long as neither of us have contracted the virus thus far, this could be a perfect time to get away.

That sounds like a great idea.  My only concern is how you will be treated at various ports around the world.  There may be quarantine issues.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Tharsheblows said:

That sounds like a great idea.  My only concern is how you will be treated at various ports around the world.  There may be quarantine issues.

My version of this "plan" is to consider it more like a camping trip into the wilderness.  Gunkholing and maybe taking the dinghy ashore, or taking the dinghy into really shallow waters, and exploring nature.  We took a couple of trips down into the keys when the kids were little and did that.  The kids loved it but I was equally interested. 

But there was that one time in Peck Lake my son and I rowed into what we thought was just harmless gnats.  It was our first experience with no-seeums.  Holy shit!  They started feasting on us as I panicked to row us into water deep enough to drop the motor and high-tail it out of there.  So maybe that's not such a good idea after all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Veeger said:

Yeah!  That'll work...  /s

The stores need to limit items to 2 per shopper max...

They do that here.  Shelves are emptied in a couple hours.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Jules said:

They do that here.  Shelves are emptied in a couple hours.

I wonder how many days of hoarding will occur before the hoarders are satisfied and stores catch up.  There is nothing wrong with most of the supply lines so the stores should catch up eventually

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tharsheblows said:

We will see who is right in a few weeks.  The flu kills between 12,000-60,000 in the US alone each year.  We are at 400 and climbing today.  Covid-19 may turn out to be worse than the flu but it has a long way to go.

When was the last time that the flu overwhelmed a country's health care resources?

- DSK

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tharsheblows said:

We will see who is right in a few weeks.  The flu kills between 12,000-60,000 in the US alone each year.  We are at 400 and climbing today.  Covid-19 may turn out to be worse than the flu but it has a long way to go.

So was Italy 2 weeks ago.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

When was the last time that the flu overwhelmed a country's health care resources?

- DSK

So if at the end of the year the US death toll from covid-19 is 9,000 you will say this virus was "worse" than the flu because our healthcare system was overwhelmed?

I'll be clear.  When I discuss which disease is worse.  I prioritize the number of dead humans.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

So if at the end of the year the US death toll from covid-19 is 9,000 you will say this virus was "worse" than the flu because our healthcare system was overwhelmed?

I'll be clear.  When I discuss which disease is worse.  I prioritize the number of dead humans.

If covid-19 kills only 9,000 people in the USA by 2021, it will definitely not be as bad as the flu. 

if covid-19 causes every hospital in the country to be overwhelmed with respiratory distress cases and 50,000 more people die from non-covid issues that can't be treated because there are zero beds, what will you prioritize then?

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

If covid-19 kills only 9,000 people in the USA by 2021, it will definitely not be as bad as the flu. 

if covid-19 causes every hospital in the country to be overwhelmed with respiratory distress cases and 50,000 more people die from non-covid issues that can't be treated because there are zero beds, what will you prioritize then?

Then very clearly covid-19 will be worse.  All deaths caused by the disease count.  But if the hospitals are still slammed in December the Covid-19 death toll will likely exceed 12,000.  My optimism is based on the assumption that this outbreak will subside in a few months.

Again, at no point have I said people should not do what is being recommended by the medical professionals.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When you get the flu, you go home and claim sick leave. Common sense. The only difference ; Covid is pandemic. Is flu considered  pandemic? I am more concerned by a government that can mandate 40 million people to stay home. Not good in the future.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SARS-CoV-2 is going to measurably drop human life expectancy across the world - an event that hasn’t really happened since the Great War or WW2. There’s been regional war and famine - but nothing like this. 
 

People who use shitty statistics to make the lousy argument are conveniently ignoring the on the ground realities of what hospitals are having to do. Our regional hospitals CANCELLED all elective procedures and are delaying and discharging patients as much as possible. Entire wings being virtually siloed - medical staff broken up into team A and B, if one person in A goes down the entire team is compromised. One ED doc tested positive and took 20 people into quarantine. 
 

It isn’t just the rapid onset issues of seeing a patient essentially drowning in a hospital bed - it is the utilization of medical staff and supplies that reduces care across the board. 
 

unless you’re a totalitarian despot willing to just implement a rule where every patient admitted who needs ICU gets dragged out the back and thrown in the furnace - maybe stfu until this is over and pray you don’t need medical services. 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, MR.CLEAN said:

if covid-19 causes every hospital in the country to be overwhelmed with respiratory distress cases and 50,000 more people die from non-covid issues that can't be treated because there are zero beds, what will you prioritize then?

 

1 hour ago, Miffy said:

People who use shitty statistics to make the lousy argument are conveniently ignoring the on the ground realities of what hospitals are having to do. Our regional hospitals CANCELLED all elective procedures and are delaying and discharging patients as much as possible. Entire wings being virtually siloed - medical staff broken up into team A and B, if one person in A goes down the entire team is compromised. One ED doc tested positive and took 20 people into quarantine. 

US has the highest number of ICU beds per population in the world. Think health index ranking.

Estimated (Imperial College Study #9 16 March 2020) that at the peak COVID-19 could overwhelm US ICU capacity by around 7 times or by up to 280,00 ICU beds (after freeing up capacity for all but emergency admissions etc). This is with a strong "suppression" response from 16 March. Note "beds" includes equipment, infrastucture & trained ICU staff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tharsheblows said:

My optimism is based on the assumption that this outbreak will subside in a few months.

Mmmm less than 12k.. that's really comforting....you wouldn't have any evidence to support your optimism by any chance???

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tharsheblows said:

So if at the end of the year the US death toll from covid-19 is 9,000 you will say this virus was "worse" than the flu because our healthcare system was overwhelmed?

I'll be clear.  When I discuss which disease is worse.  I prioritize the number of dead humans.

Iranians tried the "deny there is an issue attitude", it doesn't seem to be working well for them at the moment...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Panoramix said:

Iranians tried the "deny there is an issue attitude", it doesn't seem to be working well for them at the moment...

Are you saying that the people didn't take it seriously in Iran?

While maybe we should be skeptical of Iranian numbers they might be past the worst of it unless they experience another wave.

image.thumb.png.c89c51f4925f131a7a0e9a450a4656fd.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

Are you saying that the people didn't take it seriously in Iran?

While maybe we should be skeptical of Iranian numbers they might be past the worst of it unless they experience another wave.

image.thumb.png.c89c51f4925f131a7a0e9a450a4656fd.png

 

Until there is a vaccine this thing doesn't go away. Stop misleading people.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Until there is a vaccine this thing doesn't go away. Stop misleading people.

It might not go away completely ever, but viral outbreaks do run their course without vaccines. 

And we are not expecting a vaccine in this cases for months.  It is very likely that "the curve" we are trying to flatten out runs its course well before we have a vaccine.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tharsheblows said:

Are you saying that the people didn't take it seriously in Iran?

While maybe we should be skeptical of Iranian numbers they might be past the worst of it unless they experience another wave.

image.thumb.png.c89c51f4925f131a7a0e9a450a4656fd.png

 

I very much doubt that they have much time to count bodies : https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51930856?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cjnwl8q4ggwt/iran&link_location=live-reporting-story

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

It might not go away completely ever, but viral outbreaks do run their course without vaccines. 

And we are not expecting a vaccine in this cases for months.  It is very likely that "the curve" we are trying to flatten out runs its course well before we have a vaccine.

You forgot to mention COVID-19 is just like the Flu again.

You know the Flu that on average one person after 10 passes infects around 14 people Versus COVID-19 after 10 passes infects around 59,000 people. Turnip.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

You forgot to mention COVID-19 is just like the Flu again.

You know the Flu that on average one person after 10 passes infects around 14 people Versus COVID-19 after 10 passes infects around 59,000 people. Turnip.

Common Jack, we all know that science and doctors are overrated and decisions are much better when taken on a hunch! :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

You forgot to mention COVID-19 is just like the Flu again.

You know the Flu that on average one person after 10 passes infects around 14 people Versus COVID-19 after 10 passes infects around 59,000 people. Turnip.

We are not likely going to agree on this but we will both see what happens soon enough.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tharsheblows said:

We are not likely going to agree on this but we will both see what happens soon enough.

Thanks but I can already see....see that you are need of an Optometrist.

  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:
1 hour ago, Tharsheblows said:

We are not likely going to agree on this but we will both see what happens soon enough.

Thanks but I can already see....see that you are need of an Optometrist.

He's not arguing with you he's trying to argue with Reality.

FB- Doug

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On NPR this morning they reported that CT has had 327 cases and 8 deaths so far.  That's 2.5% fatality.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How has the coronavirus COVID-19 affected your sailing?

Professionally - f’ckd

Should have been in Cyprus 04/04… ain’t gonna happen. My Italia contract too soon after… on hold and the refit now 6 weeks behind schedule – due to the govt hard-line lockdown.

Socially - f’ckd too

As ongoing social isolation of us spritely types is key for the elderly and vulnerable to prevent cross-infection (our social responsibility) if we don’t want ICUs making awful decisions about who/who does not get a critical care bed and life prolonging ventilator.

Sailors IMO have an edge in these highly challenging circumstances – we are used to creating floating, resilient stand-alone environments that can be well placed to weather a storm.

Time to share and expand those skills with your neighbours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, billy backstay said:

On NPR this morning they reported that CT has had 327 cases and 8 deaths so far.  That's 2.5% fatality.  

And NO contact tracing and NO testing of contacts to positives---you are simply told, "quarrantine yourself and don't show up to the hospital unless you can't breath." So the REAL denominator is larger (death rate lower) but because the testing and the contact tracing has been overwhelmed by the forward progress of the disease, there is no ability to get numbers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Tharsheblows said:

I wonder how many days of hoarding will occur before the hoarders are satisfied and stores catch up.  There is nothing wrong with most of the supply lines so the stores should catch up eventually

Over half of americans are working poor. They are afraid of starving in a month. This is not a joke to them. It is not hoarding. Buying every fucking bag of rice, flour and beans is not hoarding. It is survival for the desperate.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Tharsheblows said:

So if at the end of the year the US death toll from covid-19 is 9,000 you will say this virus was "worse" than the flu because our healthcare system was overwhelmed?

I'll be clear.  When I discuss which disease is worse.  I prioritize the number of dead humans.

You have no fucking idea how many dead will be. And taking action is how we keep that number low. Not taking action means more people suffocating instead of recovering. Yes, we jhav a high overhead health "system" and that has to change---fast.  USing ventilators where oxygen is good enough is one solution. Until we run out if oxygen. Supply line stuff is the big worry with shutdown. There are a lot of "essential" industries that aren't mentioned anywhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

When was the last time that the flu overwhelmed a country's health care resources?

- DSK

We can liken this outbreak to what native people experienced when European explorers, settlers and missionaries come into contact with the the native populations.  Unlike the Europeans, the native people had no immunity to what the Europeans were carrying.  I think we can expect the initial death toll for COVID-19 to be far worse than what we will see a few years from now.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/21/2020 at 3:59 PM, Jules said:

What happens when people are allowed to return to a normal life?  Same thing will happen here.  Pence was talking about being 6 days into his 15 day plan.  Does he think that when the curve is flattened we can all come out of hiding? 

The virus will run its course unless everyone self-isolates until it is eradicated due to lack of hosts, if that is even possible.  Most likely is it will run its course.  We may flatten the curve but everyone who has not come into contact with the virus most likely will at some time, just later down the road. 

Maybe we find a vaccine and can do to it what we did to polio and smallpox before it reaches every corner of the earth.  But if it morphs like so many other viruses, we're stuck with it permanently.  It could end up being very much like the flu. 

Because there is no vaccine I've heard some people mention a possible "rebound" on this in China.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, RobbieB said:

Because there is no vaccine I've heard some people mention a possible "rebound" on this in China.

There's no question the impact we have seen thus far will continue as the virus makes its rounds.  But as people come into contact with it, we have seen some are immune, some have a minor reaction and on until we reach the ones for whom the virus is fatal. 

Next comes the effect of building up an immunity, if in fact humans can do that.  So when we return to a more normal life, those who were not exposed to the virus will face the same thing we are seeing now, but because of their lesser numbers, the impact will not be as great.  And if we go into a second lockdown, coming out of that will have the same effect but again the impact will be lessened.

Based on what we have seen to this point, it's a reasonable assumption to expect this virus to touch almost every person on the planet.  The lockdowns will slow the spread but, until we find the means to eradicate it (if that's even possible), we will have to accept the fact it's here to stay.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, Jules said:

There's no question the impact we have seen thus far will continue as the virus makes its rounds.  But as people come into contact with it, we have seen some are immune, some have a minor reaction and on until we reach the ones for whom the virus is fatal. 

Next comes the effect of building up an immunity, if in fact humans can do that.  So when we return to a more normal life, those who were not exposed to the virus will face the same thing we are seeing now, but because of their lesser numbers, the impact will not be as great.  And if we go into a second lockdown, coming out of that will have the same effect but again the impact will be lessened.

Based on what we have seen to this point, it's a reasonable assumption to expect this virus to touch almost every person on the planet.  The lockdowns will slow the spread but, until we find the means to eradicate it (if that's even possible), we will have to accept the fact it's here to stay.

Wild animal food farming needs to go away.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Given what we know about RNA viruses and SARS/SARS-CoV-2 - herd immunity is a huge leap of faith as immunity seems to last months - not years. 
 

If I were a betting person, I’d put gov resources on antivirals targeting RNA and it being used prophylactically along with aggressive contact tracing - otherwise the medical community basically needs to retool and create a negative pressure unit outside in the parking lot and folks working the unit just stay in BSL lv3 suits the entire shift. 
 

the folks panicking from the market side of things want to say carry on let’s all go back to jobs and economics - they don’t understand that if a million people die, the economy is going to tank anyway. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Miffy said:

the folks panicking from the market side of things want to say carry on let’s all go back to jobs and economics - they don’t understand that if a million people die, the economy is going to tank anyway. 

But there's also the impact from an economic depression.  We've hardly even looked at that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Miffy said:

Given what we know about RNA viruses and SARS/SARS-CoV-2 - herd immunity is a huge leap of faith as immunity seems to last months - not years. 
 

If I were a betting person, I’d put gov resources on antivirals targeting RNA and it being used prophylactically along with aggressive contact tracing - otherwise the medical community basically needs to retool and create a negative pressure unit outside in the parking lot and folks working the unit just stay in BSL lv3 suits the entire shift. 
 

the folks panicking from the market side of things want to say carry on let’s all go back to jobs and economics - they don’t understand that if a million people die, the economy is going to tank anyway. 

They gave up contact tracing. Which is a tragedy. But they didn't act soon enough so that's what you get!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

Wild animal food farming needs to go away.

how about pigs, chickens, and cows?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, MR.CLEAN said:

how about pigs, chickens, and cows?

Too late. We already got those diseases into the human system thousands of years ago. This virus jumped from wild animal farming in China--not the first time. There are 20,000 farms there doing this. Ebola came from bushmeat trade. Marburg too? There are papers on this stuff. The problem is harvesting species that have not been part of the human food chain before.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, fastyacht said:

The problem is harvesting species that have not been part of the human food chain before.

where did swine/avian flu come from?  

Share this post


Link to post