Controversial_posts

The races must go on.

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Does that make me a selfish asshole? No - we can still race and sustain social distancing.

Keep crew sizes under eight, cancel the after parties, and carry on.  If you are contracting COVID from another boat, review the RRS bc you’re doing something wrong. Racing is an ideal sport for this crisis, we are outside in the sun, UV kills viruses, and we only interact with a handful of crew, all of which you know and can screen.  
 

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So you can have a crew of seven and stay six feet apart. Must be a very big boat. Could do solo racing of course.

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You don’t really need to keep 6’ apart from everyone for distancing to be effective, just from strangers or casuals.  With your crew you know who they are and if they are sick, and if one falls ill you can quickly communicate and self quarantine.  

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I'm not sure matters if the race committee, clubs, sponsors and support aren't coming. 

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Yeah, here the big races are sponsored by Annapolis Yacht club,  Eastport yacht club, and the Naval Academy - they will all follow the local guidance.  But whats to stop a group of racers from throwing their own race? 

The small Local paper clubs - like on West River or Magothy R. already  run very successful Wed night racing. So would just need someone to organize and a handful of volunteers for a start and finish, especially if you ran circle/triangle distance courses with no after-party...
 

 

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Incredibly stupid idea - if there is anything more trivial than a toy boat race I'd like to know what it is.

To put peoples health even a tiny bit more at risk for it is just...

In case you hadn't noticed this is an international crisis. Over 7000 people have already died and it's just getting rolling.

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Maybe a bit of perspective might help.  Here is a recent communication about the estimated/predicted mortality rate published a couple of days ago in Lancet.  Nonetheless, I still fully intend to go sailing (in my single handed dinghy!).  Fully crewed boat, nah.

image.png.fed6dd8625c5f5b377e6a79995081f64.png

 

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56 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

Incredibly stupid idea - if there is anything more trivial than a toy boat race I'd like to know what it is.

You lack perspective. :P

sailing-is-life-hoodies-sweatshirts-wome

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5 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

Does that make me a selfish asshole? No - we can still race and sustain social distancing.

Keep crew sizes under eight, cancel the after parties, and carry on.  If you are contracting COVID from another boat, review the RRS bc you’re doing something wrong. Racing is an ideal sport for this crisis, we are outside in the sun, UV kills viruses, and we only interact with a handful of crew, all of which you know and can screen.  
 

The problem is that a person is contagious before the onset of symptoms, in the last day or two of the typical 5 day incubation period for this virus - and you can't screen for that.

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22 minutes ago, 12 metre said:

The problem is that a person is contagious before the onset of symptoms, in the last day or two of the typical 5 day incubation period for this virus - and you can't screen for that.

Precisely!  You're nice tight-knit little group of people you know have been out and about all week, getting groceries, going to the Dr, buying gas, what makes ANYONE think that just because you're in a small group of people you know, is equal to 'safe'.  They're all 'safe' until they get sick and then everyone they were around for the previous 2 weeks is no longer safe.  Nice---after the fact....

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No to mention asymptotic carriers: https://www.wabi.tv/content/news/Asymptomatic-people-may-be-driving-spread-of-coronavirus-568831221.html

A quote from the article: 

"We now have conclusive evidence that this disease is also being transmitted through asymptomatic carriers, or people who show no symptoms, and trying to stop that transmission is like trying to stop the wind,"

So who knows how many modern day "Typhoid Marys" are out there

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Fuck this. We should all just let the weak die, and build up our immunity as a whole. You can't fucking stop it anyway, it spreads through people not showing symptoms.

Yeah, the older weak ones will have a higher chance of dying, but they should take one for the team.

So screw this pussy ass shit. This "let's spend a year doing nothing but sitting inside so save some old people crap" and just move on with our lives instead of idiotically crippling the entire worlds economy to save a few million 80 year olds who were just the next in line to die anyway. I mean we're only going to lose millions more people to having a lack of physical activity in their lives, and millions more to suicide because what's worse for that, locking everyone inside and taking all meaning out of peoples lives.

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calling mike .....................

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7 minutes ago, darth reapius said:

Fuck this. We should all just let the weak die, and build up our immunity as a whole. You can't fucking stop it anyway, it spreads through people not showing symptoms.

Yeah, the older weak ones will have a higher chance of dying, but they should take one for the team.

So screw this pussy ass shit. This "let's spend a year doing nothing but sitting inside so save some old people crap" and just move on with our lives instead of idiotically crippling the entire worlds economy to save a few million 80 year olds who were just the next in line to die anyway. I mean we're only going to lose millions more people to having a lack of physical activity in their lives, and millions more to suicide because what's worse for that, locking everyone inside and taking all meaning out of peoples lives.

Well my 87 yo FiL went for a 2 hour helicopter ride - for the first time in his life.  Did a faaarking long zipline over a valley  - for the first time in his life

So you can go fuck yourself

 

Unless you merely 'forgot' the purple font.....

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1 minute ago, wal' said:

Well my 87 yo FiL went for a 2 hour helicopter ride - for the first time in his life.  Did a faaarking long zipline over a valley  - for the first time in his life

So you can go fuck yourself

Okay, sure I will.

THIS IS WHERE IT'S FUCKING MORONIC.

If he wan't to live longer so badly, he has a better chance of surviving (which even if he catches it is like 90% anyway) by quarantining HIMSELF and letting this thing blow over quickly, rather than slowing the spread of this to take WAY longer and him going about his semi-normal life but expecting others to be safe for the next 6+ months.

Would you rather everyone who is at very low risk catch it over the next 2 months, and he stayed inside for that time, in the mean time healthy you catches it, gets over it and resumes life afterwards. OR after 9 months of incredibly slow spread where you catch it from your grocery packer who is an ASYMPTOMATIC 20 year old, because it barely even effects them, and before you experience symptoms you visit your FiL spreading it to him.

It is going to spread everywhere, weather you like it or not. It will either do it quickly or slowly, like the normal fucking seasonal flu, which has literally been spreading for millions of years.

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Right - not the purple font

 

Go fuck yourself

 

Again.....

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37 minutes ago, darth reapius said:

It is going to spread everywhere, weather you like it or not. It will either do it quickly or slowly, like the normal fucking seasonal flu, which has literally been spreading for millions of years.

Well, I tend to agree with the notion it will spread everywhere either quickly or slowly.  However I know our health officials have stated that their current strategy is to "flatten the curve" or more exactly I think to push it out past our cold and flu season so as to not overwhelm our health resources.

Also thanks for correcting my spelling of asymptomatic.

 

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33 minutes ago, 12 metre said:

Well, I tend to agree with the notion it will spread everywhere either quickly or slowly.  However I know our health officials have stated that their current strategy is to "flatten the curve" or more exactly I think to push it out past our cold and flu season so as to not overwhelm our health resources.

Also thanks for correcting my spelling of asymptomatic.

 

This is where having it go slowly is going to screw us in the Southern Hemisphere, if it goes for long, it'll fun into our cold and flu season while beds and respirators are already at a premium.

But all the guys calling the shots here are old people, so they want to slow it down so they can live as normal-er lives as possible, keeping max space in-case they get sick.

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They say that the alcohol in hand sanitiser kills the virus,  but it tastes terrible!

So I'm just sticking to rum,  maybe in slightly higher volumes.

It might not work,  but I'll be happy.

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5 hours ago, Mid said:

calling mike .....................

No Don't!!!!!!!!!!!!<_<

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15 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

You don’t really need to keep 6’ apart from everyone for distancing to be effective, just from strangers or casuals.  With your crew you know who they are and if they are sick, and if one falls ill you can quickly communicate and self quarantine.  

You can't be that clueless at a time when health officials are doing their best to get the information out there. You don't know if someone might be sick. They don't know that they are sick. You get infected and then you spread it to a bunch of other people before you know there is a problem.

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go ahead and keep sailing - just don’t expect any sympathy when your request to dock and disembark is denied and you’re left anchored for two weeks. 

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Completely off base to say that it is only dangerous to the elderly.....

In France over half of those being treated in intensive care units for covid19 ate under age 60. 

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9 minutes ago, Baldur said:

Completely off base to say that it is only dangerous to the elderly.....

In France over half of those being treated in intensive care units for covid19 ate under age 60. 

The folks going around claiming it is only dangerous to the elderly are statistically challenged and not looking at the whole story. 
 

in general, there’s no documented cases of death due to ALL of the four types of corona viruses we know circulating. 
 

however- many adults from 20+ need weeks of supportive care to recover. Since this variant is so transmissible and so many can be minor non-symptomatic carriers, preventable deaths can occur just by overwhelming medical resource availability. 

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40 minutes ago, Miffy said:

go ahead and keep sailing - just don’t expect any sympathy when your request to dock and disembark is denied and you’re left anchored for two weeks. 

on a laser.

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8 hours ago, darth reapius said:

Fuck this. We should all just let the weak die, and build up our immunity as a whole. You can't fucking stop it anyway, it spreads through people not showing symptoms.

Yeah, the older weak ones will have a higher chance of dying, but they should take one for the team.

So screw this pussy ass shit. This "let's spend a year doing nothing but sitting inside so save some old people crap" and just move on with our lives instead of idiotically crippling the entire worlds economy to save a few million 80 year olds who were just the next in line to die anyway. I mean we're only going to lose millions more people to having a lack of physical activity in their lives, and millions more to suicide because what's worse for that, locking everyone inside and taking all meaning out of peoples lives.

Some people are better kept out of decision making positions

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Where I live rescue services are afraid of unrelated accidents. If you get the boom in your face, then you will take services better spent else where. If all traffic accidents stops for four weeks, the hospitals can focus on the virus situation...

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what made us stop racing was all of the old people we'd have to put on the RC boat together.

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9 hours ago, darth reapius said:

Fuck this. We should all just let the weak die, and build up our immunity as a whole. You can't fucking stop it anyway, it spreads through people not showing symptoms.

Yeah, the older weak ones will have a higher chance of dying, but they should take one for the team.

So screw this pussy ass shit. This "let's spend a year doing nothing but sitting inside so save some old people crap" and just move on with our lives instead of idiotically crippling the entire worlds economy to save a few million 80 year olds who were just the next in line to die anyway. I mean we're only going to lose millions more people to having a lack of physical activity in their lives, and millions more to suicide because what's worse for that, locking everyone inside and taking all meaning out of peoples lives.

You're a happy sort.  Perhaps you belong in the UK.

Oh wait -- even BJ himself has rejected that idea. . .

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14 minutes ago, bplipschitz said:

You're a happy sort.  Perhaps you belong in the UK.

Oh wait -- even BJ himself has rejected that idea. . .

But his Father hasn't

Quote

Stanley Johnson slammed as ‘irresponsible’ after ignoring son Boris’s advice to declare he’s off down the pub and wants to catch coronavirus ‘to get it over with’

 

Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/17/stanley-johnson-infuriates-viewers-declares-off-pub-wants-get-coronavirus-12409925/?ito=cbshare

Twitter: https://twitter.com/MetroUK | Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MetroUK/

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/17/stanley-johnson-infuriates-viewers-declares-off-pub-wants-get-coronavirus-12409925/

I don't think many will care if he gets it either. :ph34r:

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8 hours ago, 12 metre said:

Well, I tend to agree with the notion it will spread everywhere either quickly or slowly.  However I know our health officials have stated that their current strategy is to "flatten the curve" or more exactly I think to push it out past our cold and flu season so as to not overwhelm our health resources.

Also thanks for correcting my spelling of asymptomatic.

 

You could have demonstrated your gratitude by correcting his spelling of whether.

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3 hours ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

You can't be that clueless at a time when health officials are doing their best to get the information out there.

Apparently he can.

There's a lot of it about here.

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2 hours ago, Baldur said:

Completely off base to say that it is only dangerous to the elderly.....

In France over half of those being treated in intensive care units for covid19 ate under age 60. 

There's a bar graph out that shows the death rate by age group - it's minimal until age 50 then it curves almost vertically.

Each decade older is triple the death rate of the previous group - nears 15% for the 80's.

Found it.

image.thumb.png.bc1cfadcd04f9d2d01e10dc5ea8a15c1.png

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1 hour ago, KC375 said:

Some people are better kept out of decision making positions civilized society

FTFY

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10 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

There's a bar graph out that shows the death rate by age group - it's minimal until age 50 then it curves almost vertically.

Each decade older is triple the death rate of the previous group - nears 15% for the 80's.

Found it.

image.thumb.png.bc1cfadcd04f9d2d01e10dc5ea8a15c1.png

Another statistic a lot of the idiots out there saying it is NBD - required time in ICU under ventilation and supportive care. 
 

If there’s a steady and manageable stream of patients coming in? Fine - maybe there’s an argument that can be made re not distancing and quarantining. 
 

But when the ED gets flooded with folks who needs supportive care and the critical care folks upstairs are completely out of beds and non-clinical care providers are being asked to manually inflate a bag because there’s no more electric ventilators - triage is going to kick in and ppl are going to die of preventable causes. 

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18 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

Does that make me a selfish asshole? No - we can still race and sustain social distancing.

Keep crew sizes under eight, cancel the after parties, and carry on.  If you are contracting COVID from another boat, review the RRS bc you’re doing something wrong. Racing is an ideal sport for this crisis, we are outside in the sun, UV kills viruses, and we only interact with a handful of crew, all of which you know and can screen.  
 

So the J/35s are right out. 

 

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I'm a 48 year old otherwise very healthy person that just happens to have severe heart disease. I had my first of 7 heart attacks at 36. This puts me smack dab in the middle of the high risk category. So I say to all the selfish dick knobs "FUCK OFF". And to @darth reapius, why don't you come over to my boat this weekend so i can hack and spit on you. I'll remove the respirator I am wearing while grinding lead off my keel just for you. You're so strong and people like me are so weak, I'm sure you'll be just fine.

I mean this is really a ridiculous conversation. I really wish the worst for everyone out there thinking they should be able to just do what they want and the hell with the rest. You all have a special place in hell.

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Jubblies, I feel for you.  Sounds like you made the right decision to not be aboard a racing sailboat in close quarters with others.  Your decision to self-quarantine will give you a better shot at remaining healthy through this pandemic.

I have people with heart disease on my crew.  I would not advise them to come racing.  I have a fellow that recently quit smoking but has some lung disease as a result of 20+ years of lung abuse.  I would not advise him to come racing.

We just had to cancel our spring series and it sucks.

Personal freedom that infringes on others personal freedom is a problem!

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17 hours ago, SloopJonB said:

Incredibly stupid idea - if there is anything more trivial than a toy boat race I'd like to know what it is.

toy boats are cancelling regattas as well.   a lot of the skipper are older and self quarantined.  and at the starts everyone wants to be standing on the line...  so kinda hard to make the space.  I think we may end up going with "fun sails" and a more relaxed no scoring sailing schedule for the foreseeable future.

 

Honestly I was very surprised when my local golf course closed.  Hell I figure with all the hackers out there,  they'd be socially distancing themselves  hooking and slicing all over the course...  Its kind of the one sport where you really can stay away from your opponent..

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1 hour ago, Francisco Laguna said:

One day everyone is sailing experts, the next, they are infectious disease experts.

No, just not morons.

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13 hours ago, darth reapius said:

Okay, sure I will.

THIS IS WHERE IT'S FUCKING MORONIC.

If he wan't to live longer so badly, he has a better chance of surviving (which even if he catches it is like 90% anyway) by quarantining HIMSELF and letting this thing blow over quickly, rather than slowing the spread of this to take WAY longer and him going about his semi-normal life but expecting others to be safe for the next 6+ months.

Would you rather everyone who is at very low risk catch it over the next 2 months, and he stayed inside for that time, in the mean time healthy you catches it, gets over it and resumes life afterwards. OR after 9 months of incredibly slow spread where you catch it from your grocery packer who is an ASYMPTOMATIC 20 year old, because it barely even effects them, and before you experience symptoms you visit your FiL spreading it to him.

It is going to spread everywhere, weather you like it or not. It will either do it quickly or slowly, like the normal fucking seasonal flu, which has literally been spreading for millions of years.

LB-15, is that you?  If not, it seems you have a bogan buddy.

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2 hours ago, Francisco Laguna said:

One day everyone is sailing experts, the next, they are infectious disease experts.

When 80% couldn't sail down Niagara Falls if they were pushed.

Of course we wouldn’t sail down Niagara falls. What do you take us for? We know to use the right gear. We use barrels.

giphy.gif

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7 hours ago, SloopJonB said:

There's a bar graph out that shows the death rate by age group - it's minimal until age 50 then it curves almost vertically.

Each decade older is triple the death rate of the previous group - nears 15% for the 80's.

Found it.

image.thumb.png.bc1cfadcd04f9d2d01e10dc5ea8a15c1.png

Gotta be honest, but for the 80+ crowd, COVID is just replacing whatever else was going to kill them this year... seriously look at the actuarial tables. An 85 yr old male has nearly a 15% chance of dying that year, which is about the same as his chances with COVID.

Shutting down the whole world isn’t going to change anything in the big picture. The elderly are still going to die of something. And if we bankrupt the world, they will die anyway because there will be no money to pay for their nursing homes and regular medical care.

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23 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

if we bankrupt the world, they will die anyway because there will be no money to pay for their nursing homes and regular medical care.

That's why we are moving folks like you out. your moral bankruptcy is killing the world.

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25 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

Gotta be honest, but for the 80+ crowd, COVID is just replacing whatever else was going to kill them this year... seriously look at the actuarial tables. An 85 yr old male has nearly a 15% chance of dying that year, which is about the same as his chances with COVID.

Shutting down the whole world isn’t going to change anything in the big picture. The elderly are still going to die of something. And if we bankrupt the world, they will die anyway because there will be no money to pay for their nursing homes and regular medical care.

That dosnt replace it. That makes it 30%. 

My 90 year old mother who is perfectly independent would disagree.  Then she would kick you in the balls. 

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She can disagree all she wants, but public policy for a country of 350 million should be based on math, not anecdotes.  

As much as you love her, on average, she is reaching the end of her life and as a society, are we supposed to go bankrupt to keep her alive for another year? We let young people die of cancer bc they cant afford the medication, and no one is saying everything should shut down until that stops.

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12 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

She can disagree all she wants, but public policy for a country of 350 million should be based on math, not anecdotes.  

As much as you love her, on average, she is reaching the end of her life and as a society, are we supposed to go bankrupt to keep her alive for another year? We let young people die of cancer bc they cant afford the medication, and no one is saying everything should shut down until that stops.

Which child died of cancer because they were denied treatment?  Please name them. I want to send a card. 

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8 minutes ago, Cristoforo said:

Which child died of cancer because they were denied treatment?  Please name them. I want to send a card. 

I see you are from Europe where children are lucky enough to enjoy good and low cost care. Thats not how it is in many parts of the world, and no one really cares because its not a sensational event.

But without health insurance in the US, you are not going to receive high quality care, only emergency care in the ER. 

 

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Honestly, even after this pandemic ends, we should cancel sailboat racing forever.  
 

After all, sailing can be dangerous and you might hurt yourself or others, and without boats, then that money would be available for to keep 90 yr olds alive a little longer. Lets devote all of society’s income to extending the life of our oldest members. 

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1 hour ago, Controversial_posts said:

She can disagree all she wants, but public policy for a country of 350 million should be based on math, not anecdotes.  

As much as you love her, on average, she is reaching the end of her life and as a society, are we supposed to go bankrupt to keep her alive for another year? We let young people die of cancer bc they cant afford the medication, and no one is saying everything should shut down until that stops.

Mikey, is that a new right sock?

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1 hour ago, Controversial_posts said:

She can disagree all she wants, but public policy for a country of 350 million should be based on math, not anecdotes.  

As much as you love her, on average, she is reaching the end of her life and as a society, are we supposed to go bankrupt to keep her alive for another year? We let young people die of cancer bc they cant afford the medication, and no one is saying everything should shut down until that stops.

If you are looking to apply economic logic to health care...I'm sympathetic to that.

Then your first conclusion to "We let young people die of cancer bc they cant afford the medication," should not be don't take an aggressive approach to fighting covid 19.

It should be fix why you have the worlds most expensive health care but don't have the worlds best healthcare

By all means get economically rational about healthcare in the US...it sure needs a fix.

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What a fantastic thread of ignorance ! 
 

I want my three minutes back 

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WOW - shit is getting serious.

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Expected. Swiftsure was on my bucket list, had a schedule of races leading up to it. But I'd already pulled the plug on my racing season. Maybe next year, maybe not.

Joe

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On 3/16/2020 at 2:00 PM, Controversial_posts said:

The races must go on.

Why must yacht racing go on?

It was dying before the COVID-19 pandemic. How would a world health crisis make it any better?

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The PNW Offshore (ex Oregon Offshore) has also pulled the plug. I hope not, but suspect the Race To The Straits will follow. Center Sound Series still has one race that has not been cancelled. And don't know about TRI Island series.

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I understand that cancelling fun makes people feel like they are “doing something”, but this will not end until most of the population catches it and by catching it, develops immunity.

Isolate the elderly and immuno-compromised and let it run its course. It is too late to stop it, you cant shut down the world for the next 12-18 months.

and racing-especially lasers- is no more dangerous than going to the grocery store.  I was ahead of the curve in seeing this coming and got out of the markets in mid Feb, I am just stating what everyone else will see eventually when their paychecks stop in a few weeks.

 

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23 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

I understand that cancelling fun makes people feel like they are “doing something”, but this will not end until most of the population catches it and by catching it, develops immunity.

Isolate the elderly and immuno-compromised and let it run its course. It is too late to stop it, you cant shut down the world for the next 12-18 months.

and racing-especially lasers- is no more dangerous than going to the grocery store.  I was ahead of the curve in seeing this coming and got out of the markets in mid Feb, I am just stating what everyone else will see eventually when their paychecks stop in a few weeks.

 

Congratulations. You’ve actually proven that you’re an idiot. Most of the time we have to speculate.  

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30 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

let it run its course.

 

I think you should get out there and start spreading!

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Based on SARS and other corona viruses that have circulated in people - the data, assuming SARS-CoV-2 develops similar immune responses? Our immune memory is only a matter of months. So the whole herd immunity strategy is bullshit which is why no one as maintained it after actually paying attention to what medical professionals say. 

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Let's see, where's that ignore function again?

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35 minutes ago, Monkey said:

Congratulations. You’ve actually proven that you’re an idiot. Most of the time we have to speculate.  

Look I get that you want to “feel” like you can do something. But that time came and went, when our cheeto idiot Prez botched it. Now its too late, and we are just going to have to accept the results of poor preparation.

if I go sail my laser, coming in no contact with others , how does that change ANYTHING? Except than i cant smugly sit back and participate in the ineffective circlejerk of delaying the inevitable.  But go ahead, keep jerking - just use hand sanitizer as if that will change anything.

 

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25 minutes ago, Miffy said:

Based on SARS and other corona viruses that have circulated in people - the data, assuming SARS-CoV-2 develops similar immune responses? Our immune memory is only a matter of months. So the whole herd immunity strategy is bullshit which is why no one as maintained it after actually paying attention to what medical professionals say. 

Tell me, how many vaccines have we made against coronaviruses? Still waiting for that common cold vaccine... it is too late to meaningfully contain. We can flatten the curve somewhat, but best bet is for the old geezers to stay indoors.

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I'm with Controversial_post on this... to a degree.

The only thing that voluntary isolation does is spread out and flatten the period of peak viral infestation. The total number of people who get infected won't change all that much, if at all. It only takes a tiny sampling of carriers to sneak out into the public at large to start a whole new chain of spreading the virus.

Notice how all the advice talks about SLOWING the spread, NOT STOPPING it. Look at those bell curves. The area under the curves is the same. The only things that change are (a) how long the peak contagion period lasts (longer with quasi-quarantines) and (b) the amount of affected people at its peak, not the total amount.

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46 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

Tell me, how many vaccines have we made against coronaviruses? Still waiting for that common cold vaccine... it is too late to meaningfully contain. We can flatten the curve somewhat, but best bet is for the old geezers to stay indoors.

First, There has never been another corona virus that required vaccine investment and prior developments were shut down before clinical trials. 
 

Second? The virility of this disease and the tendency for carriers to be asymptotic means a few people can do a lot of damage - the long incubation period makes detection difficult and localized resources quickly overwhelmed. 
 

From a public health standpoint? It’ll be BAD NOT TERRIBLE if hospitals can keep running. But when people die from routine injuries they would otherwise survive except there are no ventilators ICU Beds and the clinicians are all sick - you get the picture?

i don’t understand people like you. You’re not in medicine and you pretend you’re some Vulcan mathematical sage when the real statistics and data driven people say we need to take it seriously. 
 

so maybe stfu. 

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17 minutes ago, Miffy said:

From a public health standpoint? It’ll be BAD NOT TERRIBLE if hospitals can keep running. But when people die from routine injuries they would otherwise survive except there are no ventilators ICU Beds and the clinicians are all sick - you get the picture?

i don’t understand people like you. You’re not in medicine and you pretend you’re some Vulcan mathematical sage when the real statistics and data driven people say we need to take it seriously. 
 

so maybe stfu. 

I get it, this is scary and its cute that you think you can help by not sailing a laser.

You can’t fight the virus, so attack the messenger.

 

 

 

 

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59 minutes ago, Miffy said:

i don’t understand people like you. You’re not in medicine and you pretend you’re some Vulcan mathematical sage when the real statistics and data driven people say we need to take it seriously. 

 

so maybe stfu. 

Here, a real study with math. Bottom line, the “flattening” needs to last for an entire year to avoid overwhelming hospitals. https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20200317.457910/full/
 

the choice is to either isolate geezers until it burns out, or go into a global depression for next 12 months.

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Oh great - a new idiot.

And this one's not restricted to PA.

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On 3/17/2020 at 3:56 PM, darth reapius said:

 

It is going to spread everywhere, weather you like it or not. 

You are quite right of course, we can't stop the weather. After your first post I was wondering 'weather' or not you were an ignorant moron. Thanks for clearing that up for me.

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On 3/18/2020 at 5:57 AM, Left Shift said:

LB-15, is that you?  If not, it seems you have a bogan buddy.

No you have me confused with someone else. You see rather than a 'damn the torpedoes' attitude I am the responsible sailing school owner who became the first in the country to shut his business down yesterday because I can not ensure the safety of my staff and customers due to the inability for us to maintain social distancing during training. I did this despite having plenty of bookings and students still keen to attend. This decision will cost me personally around 20k a month and will probably be the end of my business if it goes on for more than 3 months. But it is the 9 casual staff that I laid off last night that is my greatest regret. Many have been with me for over a decade and they are like family.

But thanks for asking and I hope you and your family remain safe and well during this terrible tragedy.

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2 hours ago, LB 15 said:

You see rather than a 'damn the torpedoes' attitude I am the responsible sailing school owner who became the first in the country to shut his business down yesterday because I can not ensure the safety of my staff and customers due to the inability for us to maintain social distancing during training. I did this despite having plenty of bookings and students still keen to attend.

 

Geeeeeeeze LB, your memory must be playing up.

You must have forgot what you posted  the other day..........

 

" No point in keeping my business open anyway. It has fallen off a cliff."

(how has the c virus thread........ post #267)

Seems you are full of SHIT.

But we all ready knew that.

 

 

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Good grief guys. It's as obvious as fuck.

blog-pic-58.jpg

 

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On 3/16/2020 at 10:42 PM, 12 metre said:

The problem is that a person is contagious before the onset of symptoms, in the last day or two of the typical 5 day incubation period for this virus - and you can't screen for that.

Nor is it likely that the OP has the equipment or skill set to organize a screen. It is a less than intelligent thing to do to ask your 8 crew to put themselves at risk to come sailing with you. Hopefully they politely decline.

If everyone thinks it is okay to meet with 8 "screened"  (sic) friends , then you are exposing yourself to 64 people.  Statistically if the penetration of the disease reached 5% then 3 of those people will be infectious.

Why not go on lock down for 3 short weeks of your life and see what emerges when the weather gets warmer.

 

 

 

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12 hours ago, Somebody Else said:

I'm with Controversial_post on this... to a degree.

The only thing that voluntary isolation does is spread out and flatten the period of peak viral infestation. The total number of people who get infected won't change all that much, if at all. It only takes a tiny sampling of carriers to sneak out into the public at large to start a whole new chain of spreading the virus.

Notice how all the advice talks about SLOWING the spread, NOT STOPPING it. Look at those bell curves. The area under the curves is the same. The only things that change are (a) how long the peak contagion period lasts (longer with quasi-quarantines) and (b) the amount of affected people at its peak, not the total amount.

There are 2 compelling reasons to flatten the curve:

 

1.  The mortality and morbidity rates will be much lower if our hospitals do not have to face a sudden peak, Italy's mortality rate is 3X China (ex Hubei), South Korea etc......because their healthcare system is overwhelmed.  

2. It gives us time to reach a slow down in the NHemi summer and develop vaccine/anit-virals by the Fall.

 

If it were possible to practice total isolation for 4 weeks the disease would of course die out without new hosts. That is obviously impossible but the closer we get to that ideal, the better.

 

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Its really hard to be a rational person and say we are overreacting in the face of a danger of an unknown magnitude.  You can easily be accused of not taking the danger seriously enough by someone who is more concerned.  If the death toll in the United States end up being in the millions then we are probably doing exactly the right thing, but if the final death toll is around 5,000, which seems possible also, then shutting down the economy was probably an over reaction.  Either way we are committed to this course of action at this point. 

I just hope we keep studying what happened after this is all over so we can have a better prediction of how many people get killed when we shut down the economy.  Its seems like the people being killed by our precautionary response are being ignored in the calculus.  I tend to believe its not a small number...maybe I'm wrong.  It would be a good topic for someone to study after this all passes.   

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The problem is , if our shut down effectively slows down the disease , then we will never know how many more would have died if we did not.

If we reached the infection levels of Italy, that would imply 208,000 patients and growing before peak. If we are as effective as China, we would peak at around 25,000 and cease to have new cases in 8 -12 weeks.    Option B sounds better to me. The Chinese economy is already getting back up to 80% operational.

 

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7 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

Its really hard to be a rational person and say we are overreacting in the face of a danger of an unknown magnitude.  You can easily be accused of not taking the danger seriously enough by someone who is more concerned.  If the death toll in the United States end up being in the millions then we are probably doing exactly the right thing, but if the final death toll is around 5,000, which seems possible also, then shutting down the economy was probably an over reaction.  Either way we are committed to this course of action at this point. 

I just hope we keep studying what happened after this is all over so we can have a better prediction of how many people get killed when we shut down the economy.  Its seems like the people being killed by our precautionary response are being ignored in the calculus.  I tend to believe its not a small number...maybe I'm wrong.  It would be a good topic for someone to study after this all passes.   

I think that is likely true for several reasons.

It’s a poorly understood number / relationship so whatever the answer it will not be given much credence even if it should be.

The most affected group are the least visible and least effective at affecting public policy. The people at the margin of society tend not to spend much on lobbyists.

I do hope their is a robust post crisis review of the response and mitigating actions worth applying in the future. There have been lots of public policy / administration blunders in many countries but also some impressive responses – build a hospital in a week – where I live you couldn’t get an appointment to have the plans reviewed in that time. Lot’s of things will be well done over the coming months, we should learn from them and institutionalize them. Lot’s things have created systemic vulnerabilities – we should understand them and mitigate them in the future.

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47 minutes ago, Mambo Kings said:

The problem is , if our shut down effectively slows down the disease , then we will never know how many more would have died if we did not.

If we reached the infection levels of Italy, that would imply 208,000 patients and growing before peak. If we are as effective as China, we would peak at around 25,000 and cease to have new cases in 8 -12 weeks.    Option B sounds better to me. The Chinese economy is already getting back up to 80% operational.

 

That is very true … but nobody seems to be calculating how many single mothers with three kids that are working two jobs (which they just lost) to make ends meet who typically have only $26 dollars in their bank accounts at the end of the month after they pay their bills have we just told to "hunker down" for three weeks with kids who now have no food.   Maybe they can take their kids to their moms house...unless their mom lives in Europe!

How many people have some shitty illness that requires expensive medicines daily to hold it at bay or control intolerable pain who have been lucky enough to have insurance that helped them afford their medicines through their work but now they have been laid off permanently because these precautionary measures put the company they work for out of business permanently. 

How many old people on super tight budgets are drawing on their investments to pay for heating their houses but the stock market just crashed because of the actions we voluntarily chose to take and now they don't have enough money to last their life... but they are too old to go back to work.

In a population of over 300 million?  How many people did we just kill? 

I understand that most people who love sailing enough to be on this service can simply go home and watch TV for three weeks.  But hundreds of thousands of lives have just been shattered by our precautionary actions and the "better safe than sorry" attitude that seems to prevailing doesn't seem to take into account the crushing and  cruel downside of our precautionary measures.  Or maybe they do.  I could be wrong.      

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8 minutes ago, KC375 said:

I think that is likely true for several reasons.

 

It’s a poorly understood number / relationship so whatever the answer it will not be given much credence even if it should be.

 

The most affected group are the least visible and least effective at affecting public policy. The people at the margin of society tend not to spend much on lobbyists.

 

I do hope their is a robust post crisis review of the response and mitigating actions worth applying in the future. There have been lots of public policy / administration blunders in many countries but also some impressive responses – build a hospital in a week – where I live you couldn’t get an appointment to have the plans reviewed in that time. Lot’s of things will be well done over the coming months, we should learn from them and institutionalize them. Lot’s things have created systemic vulnerabilities – we should understand them and mitigate them in the future.

 

Yes, and if nothing else.  Understand our supply chain and inventory of critical medical items.  Also, with new virus's likely to be recurring problem in the future, it seems investment in technology focused on rapid development of vaccines might be a good idea. 

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6 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

 

Geeeeeeeze LB, your memory must be playing up.

You must have forgot what you posted  the other day..........

 

" No point in keeping my business open anyway. It has fallen off a cliff."

(how has the c virus thread........ post #267)

Seems you are full of SHIT.

But we all ready knew that.

 

 

Oh look my little stalker is back. I would have thought your ‘tribe’ would have stopped paying you to follow me around by now. They laid off all the other casuals yesterday. They have been thinning the herd since they were forced to throw your boyfriend out a few weeks back. Sacking coaches as well I hear. Amazing how quickly they can turn on their own as you well know. Tic tic tic cupcake. So many things will be different when this mess is over. In the meantime look after yourself and keep your head down in the tacks. Those booms can be dangerous for stupid cunts like you. Now run along and pop cleans balls back in your mouth and see if you can get me flicked this time.

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10 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

Yes, and if nothing else.  Understand our supply chain and inventory of critical medical items.  Also, with new virus's likely to be recurring problem in the future, it seems investment in technology focused on rapid development of vaccines might be a good idea. 

As well as some deep introspection about the lack of a social safety net and a health care system that compares badly with the rest of the developed world on measures of cost, outcomes, and accessibility. (From an outside observers POV one of the absurdities of US public policy debate is the discussion around “healthcare” when all anyone talks about is funding mechanisms i.e.  “insurance”...some good reasons to consider changes to funding mechanisms but changing who pays for something high cost but only moderate performance still leaves some big problems ignored). The great depression allowed Roosevelt to take some bold actions. Maybe covid19 will allow the next resident of 1600 Pennsylvania to make some more.

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1 hour ago, KC375 said:

 but also some impressive responses – build a hospital in a week – where I live you couldn’t get an appointment to have the plans reviewed in that time.

If things come to needing massive amounts of additional hospital space, I would think that all the empty dorm rooms and Military Reserve hospital units would be than answer to that.

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