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Lots of nervous people, should be back in Seattle in a couple weeks, then the real fun begins.

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6 hours ago, Amati said:

What do you think of this, as a doctor-  seems easy enough to test.  And as a last resort, it might make some sense?

https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/diy-homemade-mask-protect-virus-coronavirus/

https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/best-materials-make-diy-face-mask-virus/

Ok,  I’ve just scanned it but I think it is not worth the effort. Problem with DIY masks (and surgical masks) is that they  don’t fit tight enough so the air flows around them. And if they do, they will not let through enough air. I’d rather keep a little distance to other people than have that feeling of false security. 

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Even our Radio controlled sailing regattas have been canned.

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3 hours ago, SloopJohnB said:

Even our Radio controlled sailing regattas have been canned.

That just Mega-Hurtz.

Lost

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8 hours ago, 10thTonner said:

Ok,  I’ve just scanned it but I think it is not worth the effort. Problem with DIY masks (and surgical masks) is that they  don’t fit tight enough so the air flows around them. And if they do, they will not let through enough air. I’d rather keep a little distance to other people than have that feeling of false security. 

Reasonable common sense advice.  
 

But as a desperate last resort

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/hospital-makes-face-masks-covid-19-shields-from-office-supplies

even from the cdc

https://www.union-bulletin.com/news/national/cdc-suggests-nurses-use-bandanas-scarves-during-face-mask-shortage/article_49227d79-502e-54f6-b9fe-5c088a0f6567.html

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Anybody else wondering about the decision to employ Naval hospital ships for Covid-19?

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Good idea. The plan is to put non-COVID  patients (presumably tested to verify) on the ships to take pressure off the land-based hospitals.

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45 minutes ago, Israel Hands said:

Anybody else wondering about the decision to employ Naval hospital ships for Covid-19?

Land hospitals probably filling up already. Plus, easier to control access.

Those ships are designed around disaster relief, huge food and water facilities. But they're also among th ebest hospitals in the world

FB- Doug

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Threatening the press was a nice touch.

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27 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Land hospitals probably filling up already. Plus, easier to control access.

Those ships are designed around disaster relief, huge food and water facilities. But they're also among th ebest hospitals in the world

FB- Doug

They’re being refitted.  Hard to say what condition they’re in right now.

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I can't listen to Pence or Trump without spiking my blood pressure. Was Fauci missing from today's briefing again?

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2 minutes ago, IStream said:

I can't listen to Pence or Trump without spiking my blood pressure. Was Fauci missing from today's briefing again?

Yup.  But I don’t think anyone asked why.

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He’s gonna blow!

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13 minutes ago, Amati said:

They’re being refitted.  Hard to say what condition they’re in right now.

News said they were going to be used to offload "normal" medical cases to free hospitals for the bug

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So should we buy certain stocks in which the government is going to invest?  I think ;);) Trump just ;);)  sent up that flag.....

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Well we are getting close to PA here, but I'd like to point out that since Richard Burr was telling his top business donors on Feb 23 just how bad this was going to get, we certainly need to investigate all WH members and congressmen and their families for stock trading during the past 3 weeks.

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2 hours ago, Amati said:

They’re being refitted.  Hard to say what condition they’re in right now.

Story the other day said the one in Norfolk was in for maintenance and it would be several weeks before it was ready.  The on in SD was supposed to be able to sail within several days.  That info is 2 or 3 days old

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15 hours ago, SASSAFRASS said:

Lots of nervous people, should be back in Seattle in a couple weeks, then the real fun begins.

It really is..... fucking strange times

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Our hospital sent out a bulletin re nasal swabs being in short supply (not even talking about test reagents or completed kits or PCR vials/run time limitations). A lot of the supply chain is diversified and Italy was one of the larger suppliers of the swaps in this jurisdiction. 

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3 hours ago, Israel Hands said:

Well we are getting close to PA here, but I'd like to point out that since Richard Burr was telling his top business donors on Feb 23 just how bad this was going to get, we certainly need to investigate all WH members and congressmen and their families for stock trading during the past 3 weeks.

You heard that too? I'm not going to say more on the non-political part of SA but I've never thought he was a good political leader

Telling his private donors one thing that he knows from his seat in private committees, while publicly singing a tune 180 degrees out, is a very low human being.

- DSK

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2 hours ago, jerseyguy said:

Story the other day said the one in Norfolk was in for maintenance and it would be several weeks before it was ready.  The on in SD was supposed to be able to sail within several days.  That info is 2 or 3 days old

I heard today that was optimistic for both.  I think it was on Andrea Mitchell, who's usually pretty good fact wise.  But light a fire under some britches, and who knows?  

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4 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

You heard that too? I'm not going to say more on the non-political part of SA but I've never thought he was a good political leader

Telling his private donors one thing that he knows from his seat in private committees, while publicly singing a tune 180 degrees out, is a very low human being.

- DSK

And within 12 hours it's coming out that he was trading on his inside info. That didn't take long!

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Just now, Israel Hands said:

And within 12 hours it's coming out that he was trading on his inside info. That didn't take long!

And a 2nd Repub Senator, Kelly Loeffler(R-GA) also made a lot of stock transactions 

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4 hours ago, Amati said:

I heard today that was optimistic for both.  I think it was on Andrea Mitchell, who's usually pretty good fact wise.  But light a fire under some britches, and who knows?  

https://www.wavy.com/news/health/coronavirus/norfolk-based-usns-comfort-floating-hospital-heading-to-new-york-city-to-combat-outbreak-1300-plus-cases-now-in-nyc/

Marinetraffic shows her sitting at the dock

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-76.335/centery:36.948/zoom:15

 

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8 hours ago, Israel Hands said:

Well we are getting close to PA here, but I'd like to point out that since Richard Burr was telling his top business donors on Feb 23 just how bad this was going to get, we certainly need to investigate all WH members and congressmen and their families for stock trading during the past 3 weeks.

Around Feb 23rd I think a great many people understood the situation better than the White House. The market was already reacting to updates from China and estimating likely path in the US. The missing bit in the equation was nobody knew how strenuous or lackadaisical the response in the West was going to be.  In that regard, the US owes a lot to the Italians.  I think the US was shocked into action when they saw the effect of a delayed response.  

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4 hours ago, Amati said:

I heard today that was optimistic for both.  I think it was on Andrea Mitchell, who's usually pretty good fact wise.  But light a fire under some britches, and who knows?  

I read somewhere that the East Coast hospital ship is being refitted and 4-8 weeks away from being available.....which surprised me because (a) We have known this is coming for over 2 months and (b) Whats the point of an emergency vessel if it cant be ready in an emergency.  New York is clearly going to get to a point where it needs extra beds.

To their credit China moved in military hospitals and a surge of medical staff to the worst affected region.

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1 hour ago, Mambo Kings said:

Around Feb 23rd I think a great many people understood the situation better than the White House. The market was already reacting to updates from China and estimating likely path in the US. The missing bit in the equation was nobody knew how strenuous or lackadaisical the response in the West was going to be.  In that regard, the US owes a lot to the Italians.  I think the US was shocked into action when they saw the effect of a delayed response.  

A lot of folks, like us, saw this in mid December, but hey, right people and all.  Hard to know what to do then.  And now?  Most of us don’t have access to secure bunkers.  Not sure what a lot of cash will afford.

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1 hour ago, Mambo Kings said:

I think the US was shocked into action when they saw the effect of a delayed response.  

the fuck are you talking about????

 People are still roaming around all over the place.  I just drove across the country and there are cars full of families driving all over.  Planes are still flying.  Buses.  Airport staff are still coming down with this shit.  kids are partying all over the south.  We have the lowest testing rate of any fucking country including iran.  We have NOT responded like the Italians, even with the benefit of hindsight and our certain knowledge that they have already seen entire villages decimated. 

Add that to the fact that no stock market on earth was as overvalued as the US market, with some of the highest leverage rates on equities anywhere and thousands of fat margin portfolios, and the recent surge in real estate prices, refis, and low downpayment mortgages...I cannot seem to find a scenario in which Italy's problems don't pale in comparison to what America is about to face.  When i say that last sentence I feel like it is so alarmist, but the math is the math and it's fucking frightening. 

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7 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

the fuck are you talking about????

 People are still roaming around all over the place.  I just drove across the country and there are cars full of families driving all over.  Planes are still flying.  Buses.  Airport staff are still coming down with this shit.  kids are partying all over the south.  We have the lowest testing rate of any fucking country including iran.  We have NOT responded like the Italians, even with the benefit of hindsight and our certain knowledge that they have already seen entire villages decimated. 

Add that to the fact that no stock market on earth was as overvalued as the US market, with some of the highest leverage rates on equities anywhere and thousands of fat margin portfolios, and the recent surge in real estate prices, refis, and low downpayment mortgages...I cannot seem to find a scenario in which Italy's problems don't pale in comparison to what America is about to face.  When i say that last sentence I feel like it is so alarmist, but the math is the math and it's fucking frightening. 

Yep, exactly. And I do not accept the concept that the head of the Senate Intelligence Committee can unwind his portfolio and tell his "insider supporters" to get ready for the storm, all while being a silent supporter of the Trump bubble machine. What's happening in our Federal government is fucking bullshit.

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Good news in Houston - testing available starting today. The first of 2 sites will open. yeah.

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33 minutes ago, Israel Hands said:

Yep, exactly. And I do not accept the concept that the head of the Senate Intelligence Committee can unwind his portfolio and tell his "insider supporters" to get ready for the storm, all while being a silent supporter of the Trump bubble machine. What's happening in our Federal government is fucking bullshit.

He wasn't even a silent supporter. He was on one of the public TV talk shows, a couple of weeks ago, rattling on about how Trump was a "master of detail" and he does not often have meetings with Trump but that he always looks forward to them when he does, because his leadership style is so effective.

The host of that particular show is an old-time conservative (I've always thought borderline segregationist) who was not exactly a never-Trumper, but has come around to being mildly yay-Trump the last six months or so. Sen. Burr's performance and the giant sucking sound really raised his eyebrows.

Is it torch & pitchfork time yet?

- DSK

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3 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

He wasn't even a silent supporter. He was on one of the public TV talk shows, a couple of weeks ago, rattling on about how Trump was a "master of detail" and he does not often have meetings with Trump but that he always looks forward to them when he does, because his leadership style is so effective.

The host of that particular show is an old-time conservative (I've always thought borderline segregationist) who was not exactly a never-Trumper, but has come around to being mildly yay-Trump the last six months or so. Sen. Burr's performance and the giant sucking sound really raised his eyebrows.

Is it torch & pitchfork time yet?

- DSK

Getting close.  We could at least organize some tar and feathers.

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Its odd Senator Feinstein isn't mentioned in this scandal.  
She recently sold $6.0 million worth of stock  and also serves on the Intelligence Committee and was briefed.

I believe she is a Democrat.
Most experts are saying it does not meet a standard of illegality,  but is a moral/ethical issue.
People should not expect moral/ethical standards from politicians 

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A little positive news from Dan and R2AK.

 


To the R2AK faithful united in isolation, 

The echo in the pasta aisle is new, as are the nods and waves which have taken the place of handshakes and bearhugs. Port Townsend, home to the R2AK’s race start and SEVENTY48’s epic finish line, is usually a huggy place. Illness epicenters have a way of changing that, and it has. COVID is real in every direction of our reality, in our wallet, our food, our friends. It dangles on the edge of our thoughts, sits at the back of our tongues and rings in our ears. My ears ring because the media refuse to talk about anything else. But it’s affecting our race, too.

The presence of COVID-19 began as a distant cry and has grown into this thundering beast clearing our streets and emptying workplaces, but look, I’m going to lead with the punchline: Race to Alaska and SEVENTY48 are happening until they are not. If fact, I won't cancel a race unless there is a directive levied against the activity from some body of governance that has the chops to levy it or, its termination serves to lessen the exposure to COVID. 

In defense of our race, and the value of it running as planned, I offer the following ripostes: 

“Find a better way to experience extreme social distancing.”

“It’s a needed family break from what has turned into a six-month summer vacation for our kids.” 

“The races are custom-designed entertainment for the masses of forced and self-isolated victims worldwide.” 

This is the low hanging fruit, my friend. The real reasons?

First, ask yourself: Why do you race? Why do you watch racers? What attracts you to adventure? These races reflect many elements of the human condition and the human heart. Some are easy to tick off: meeting challenges head-on, the losing of oneself in a greater landscape, the power afforded to a person for having just done it. Overcoming even those goals is not to be taken lightly, but I feel my answer to these questions is more full-throated, not presented as an opposition, but an alternative to what our society is facing.

I want to fire that starting gun into the unpredictable skies of June because to not try is to lose already, and to cross the start line is to win. We’ll keep the “it’s a boat race” charade for the tourists, but this is a race of one racer at a time taking this moment to say, “I’m better than I was five minutes ago, and I just need to make it another five minutes.” Half-million-dollar boats jockey at the starting line with dories dragged from under grandparents’ lake house porches. And. We. Don’t. Care. This is a race of celebration, where I get to be part of a team without having to sit in their cockpit and eat their food. I get to cry at the triumph and tragedy of people I hardly know. Why would I? Because WE are racing to Alaska. And that ‘we’ is unity, across borders, fiber optics, and satellites. That we is us, and I yearn to stand shoulder to shoulder with champions of human nature; with people courageous and passionate and loving and present.  Feet firmly on the earth, eyes looking forward. Arms interlocked—and yes, that can be metaphoric—because when we are on the water together, we represent one thing: the desire for all of us to be better than we were five minutes ago.

In a time when it feels like we, as a civilization, are going nowhere, I want that start gun to remind us that we can be stronger together, in every sense. And even if I have to high five you standing six feet apart, it will thunder with love and admiration, and never with fear. We are all far too beautiful of creatures to expect otherwise. Come race day, it may look like a different day than what we have experienced in the five years of running these races. However, these races are steeped in the traditions of audacity, why would we expect anything else? I’ll see you in June. 

More sincerely than usual, 
Daniel Evans, Race Boss

P.S. In case schools are still in lockdown, yes, your kids can come race, but we’ll be vetting them too!

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1 hour ago, Cristoforo said:

Its odd Senator Feinstein isn't mentioned in this scandal.  
She recently sold $6.0 million worth of stock  and also serves on the Intelligence Committee and was briefed.

I believe she is a Democrat.
Most experts are saying it does not meet a standard of illegality,  but is a moral/ethical issue.
People should not expect moral/ethical standards from politicians 

If she's benefitting privately from her position, then yeah we'll tar & feather her too.

Or are you mad just because she's apparently > 3X richer than Sen. Burr?

- DSK

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1 hour ago, Cristoforo said:

Its odd Senator Feinstein isn't mentioned in this scandal.  
She recently sold $6.0 million worth of stock  and also serves on the Intelligence Committee and was briefed.

I believe she is a Democrat.
Most experts are saying it does not meet a standard of illegality,  but is a moral/ethical issue.
People should not expect moral/ethical standards from politicians 

If she was briefed by admin officials with information that was not made public and then sold her stock, she should be in the same jail cell as the GOPers.

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6 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

If she was briefed by admin officials with information that was not made public and then sold her stock, she should be in the same jail cell as the GOPers.

That behaviour regardless of party should be addressed.

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Rescission, disgorgement, and 12 years in prison.  All of them.

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1 hour ago, Steam Flyer said:

If she's benefitting privately from her position, then yeah we'll tar & feather her too.

Or are you mad just because she's apparently > 3X richer than Sen. Burr?

- DSK

No, I couldn’t care less. 

Did you know Bernie Sanders is a millionaire?

if he donated  to his own campaign, is he a hypocrite? 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Cristoforo said:

No, I couldn’t care less. 

Did you know Bernie Sanders is a millionaire?

if he donated  to his own campaign, is he a hypocrite? 

 

 

Sure, pretty much everybody in Congress is a millionaire. Being a millionaire is within reach of the average working person, if they play it smart for most of their working careers. I don't hold that against him.

I would say that Bernie is a hypocrite if he DOESN'T donate to his campaign.

The real hypocrisy is the people who will drool over Trump's "successful business career" which is a flat-out lie, (he'd be richer than he claims he is if he'd put all the money he inherited into US bonds) then turn around & criticize Bernie for not wearing a hair shirt sleeping under a bridge.

- DSK

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6 hours ago, Cristoforo said:

Its odd Senator Feinstein isn't mentioned in this scandal.  
She recently sold $6.0 million worth of stock  and also serves on the Intelligence Committee and was briefed.

I believe she is a Democrat.
Most experts are saying it does not meet a standard of illegality,  but is a moral/ethical issue.
People should not expect moral/ethical standards from politicians 

nevef mind they all smel

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7 hours ago, Cristoforo said:

Its odd Senator Feinstein isn't mentioned in this scandal.  
She recently sold $6.0 million worth of stock  and also serves on the Intelligence Committee and was briefed.

I believe she is a Democrat.
Most experts are saying it does not meet a standard of illegality,  but is a moral/ethical issue.
People should not expect moral/ethical standards from politicians 

... Update: Several readers have asked about the other senators who sold stock during the same period, including Dianne Feinstein (a California Democrat), James Inhofe (an Oklahoma Republican) and Ron Johnson (a Wisconsin Republican). But none of their trades look particularly suspicious.

Feinstein has said that she did not attend the Jan. 24 briefing; her stock was in a blind trust, which means she didn’t make the decision to sell; and the transaction lost her money, because the trust was selling shares of a biotechnology stock, the value of which has since risen. Inhofe’s transactions were part of a systematic selling of stocks that he started after he became chairman of the Armed Services Committee. Johnson sold stock in his family’s plastic business, as part of a process that has been occurring for months; his sale also occurred well after stock market began falling.

Jeff Blehar of National Review has a helpful summary on Twitter, in which he argues Burr’s transactions are the worst. Loeffler, who is extremely wealthy and married to the chairman of the New York Stock Exchange, frequently sells stock and has said “multiple third-party advisors” — not her or her husband — made the decision to sell shares in January and in February. The notion that Feinstein or Johnson did something unethical, Belhar wrote, is “flat wrong.” Don Moynihan of Georgetown University agrees. ...

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On 3/16/2020 at 5:09 PM, Editor said:

How is it affecting your sailing? Still have regattas to sail? Missed regattas because of it? Buy or sell boats during it? I can tell you that I lost a potential sale of A4 because of it.

So jump in and tell us what is happening in your neck of the woods - ed.

The update from NY is there may be late to zero sailing  this year, as all non essential businesses are shut down by the Governors executive order . If your in a yard, thats a problem.

Meanwhile, for a little healthy perspective, a good friend called last night to tell me he's been diagnosed with an aggressive prostate cancer. 

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On 3/18/2020 at 8:08 PM, Mambo Kings said:

Hello Mozzy.  I havent followed closely the debate between you and Clean.

There is more we dont know about Covid 19 than we do know, but folks are working very hard to gain a better understanding. You rightly point out that the studies are ongoing.  The Chinese are doing excellent work and sharing their findings promptly with the scientific community over here.  The scientific community are getting reports out of Italy (where the situation is frankly tragic) but the data is not organized sufficiently for scientific conclusions. But we know enough about Italy to state some general conclusions.

I think the discussion was centered around a remark I made about potential morbidity in CV 19 survivors. The point I wished to convey is that this is NOT solely an "old people's disease"   . The mortality rate is certainly higher in the older demographic however the health care proffessionals are seeing severe symptoms across a broad age demographic and we are clearly seeing morbidity (lasting damage) across the age demographic. AFAIK at time of this post, we do not fully understand whether this is the after effects of the immune response or  the viral infection.

Young men and women should take the CV19 virus seriously (for their own sakes).  Furthermore, the spread will not be suppressed unless they do.

There was a second discussion about masks. On this I can speak with some clarity.  We are getting a lot of data about the spread of CV19. We have measured the viral shed on patients at pre-symptom, early symptom and late symptom. The virus starts shedding early and in great concentration. The scientific community is reasonably unanimous that the spread is via droplets and invariably via the respiratory system. The droplets are minute to the human eye but reasonably large in a scientific sense. Communities which are comprehensively wearing masks are experiencing slower spread.

The priority for masks should absolutely be our health care workers. However masks are being produced in rapid quantities. They will become available. You should wear one in public settings.  

I am not a scientist however I am married to a fellow of Harvard Med School, work for a fund that invests in medtech and was on a call with the former global head of immunotherapy at Roche  who coincidentally did his Phd on the corona virus. All the errors are mine. The good stuff is theirs.

This is most obvious when looking at how South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong have "flattened the curve". Masks help reduce the spread. We just don't have enough. Those of us that have a few left from the NorCal fires should or should not wear them when out shopping for groceries?

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3 minutes ago, familysailor said:

This is most obvious when looking at how South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong have "flattened the curve". Masks help reduce the spread. We just don't have enough

Yep. I'm of the opinion that even home made masks are better than nothing. Both because they may help on the margins and because they keep people aware of what's going on. It's harder to touch your face or get distracted and stop SD with a mask on.

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3 hours ago, hannibalhouse said:

South Florida has this troubling combination of "everything goes" with "We don't follow no stinkin rules: with the mirror not surprisingly "we are the LAW and fuck you." I sure hope that nonsense doesn't come to New England. Fuck, that would suck. Being ticketed in your rowboat or your kayak (which is in fact what will happen in South Florida now---Broward excluded -- for now).

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On 3/19/2020 at 7:25 PM, Mambo Kings said:

I read somewhere that the East Coast hospital ship is being refitted and 4-8 weeks away from being available.....which surprised me because (a) We have known this is coming for over 2 months and (b) Whats the point of an emergency vessel if it cant be ready in an emergency.  New York is clearly going to get to a point where it needs extra beds.

To their credit China moved in military hospitals and a surge of medical staff to the worst affected region.

It's still a ship and has to come down for maintenance sometime - any sailor should know that. And that's why we have two. This refit has likely been on the schedule for years and probably started well before the virus scare was a thing.

They can probably curtail some of the refitting activity but I'm sure there are some projects that will take a bit of time to wrap up - could be waiting on parts/materials, etc., plus a certain amount of testing needed after repairs are complete. But I'm sure they'll make her ready for sea as quickly as they can. Likewise all of the services (including the Navy) have land-based field hospitals and I have to imagine they're being ramped up and planning is taking place on the most effective sites.

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Excuse me for not having read the entire thread, yet.
All our regattas in the San Francisco Bay Area, and even the challenging and fun Farallon races (single, double and team regattas) are cancelled. 
 

May you all be in a safe place and eating your wheaties. 

Those of us that are liveaboards are having some extra challenges because we use the marina bathrooms/showers. Being ultra diligent and creative. 
Did you know how many things you can do with your foot and elbow? Hahaha!

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I am starting to get pissed off at the extreme headlines.  On CNN.com now:  

"This could be the ugliest week we've ever lived through" 

That's just utter bullshit, and it is fueling the panic that is leading to serious business and financial panic. As of yesterday I think I crossed the line over to thinking we must stop this nonsensical panic and back off the blanket work stoppage etc. We have taken the images of China's authoritarian shutdown and accepted that as the answer for the world. Killing our economy may lead to more early death and chaos than we can imagine. Thomas Friedman has an op ed in the NYT today along those lines. He cites this article by a Stanford prof of epidemioloy and data science-

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

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I have friends and colleagues in NYC they’re absolutely swamped at the moment. You think it is sensational? Consider that most state and local level response activated last week - disease progression and incubation time suggests a surge this week and next before social distancing and quarantines took effect. 
 

don’t be a moron. 

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15 minutes ago, Miffy said:

I have friends and colleagues in NYC they’re absolutely swamped at the moment. You think it is sensational? Consider that most state and local level response activated last week - disease progression and incubation time suggests a surge this week and next before social distancing and quarantines took effect. 
 

don’t be a moron. 

I’m not being a moron. Rather I am calmly digesting all sides of the picture. I suggest that you take 15 minutes and read both Friedman’s op ed and the Stanford professor’s article, before suggesting that I’m a moron.

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42 minutes ago, Israel Hands said:

I am starting to get pissed off at the extreme headlines.  On CNN.com now:  

"This could be the ugliest week we've ever lived through" 

That's just utter bullshit, and it is fueling the panic that is leading to serious business and financial panic. As of yesterday I think I crossed the line over to thinking we must stop this nonsensical panic and back off the blanket work stoppage etc. We have taken the images of China's authoritarian shutdown and accepted that as the answer for the world. Killing our economy may lead to more early death and chaos than we can imagine. Thomas Friedman has an op ed in the NYT today along those lines. He cites this article by a Stanford prof of epidemioloy and data science-

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

It is more useful to learn from the Koreans. However we are so behind it probably is way too late for NY, SF, and some others (S FL?) but much of the country could learn from Korea. We need the economy functioning if possible! Where will all the supplies come from if there is nobody making them?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/world/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-flatten-curve.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

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Here is an excerpt from the article, in hopes that others might take the time to read it. The decision-makers in this situation need to push back from panic and anecdotal stories and do some reality-based planning. As a small business person, I'm watching as customers, vendors, and especially trucking and logistics companies panic and curtail and lay off to avoid losses. It's a downward spiral, because in the process you forgo sales opportunities by cutting back. Credit and receivables have changed overnight. These things are not rebuilt easily. I sense far more panic now than in the 2008 crash. As the author states, if we are going to jump off a cliff over this, we better know we can land alive.

...If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from “influenza-like illness.” If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average. The media coverage would have been less than for an NBA game between the two most indifferent teams.

Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction? How can we tell at what point such a curve might stop?

The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Sadly, that’s information we don’t have.

In the absence of data, prepare-for-the-worst reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distancing and lockdowns. Unfortunately, we do not know if these measures work. School closures, for example, may reduce transmission rates. But they may also backfire if children socialize anyhow, if school closure leads children to spend more time with susceptible elderly family members, if children at home disrupt their parents ability to work, and more. School closures may also diminish the chances of developing herd immunity in an age group that is spared serious disease...

John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine and professor of epidemiology and population health, as well as professor by courtesy of biomedical data science at Stanford University School of Medicine, professor by courtesy of statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences, and co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS) at Stanford University.

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On 3/17/2020 at 10:09 AM, Editor said:

How is it affecting your sailing? Still have regattas to sail? Missed regattas because of it? Buy or sell boats during it? I can tell you that I lost a potential sale of A4 because of it.

So jump in and tell us what is happening in your neck of the woods - ed.

Trying to sell my boat during this is...challenging.

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3 minutes ago, B.J. Porter said:
On 3/17/2020 at 10:09 AM, Editor said:

How is it affecting your sailing? Still have regattas to sail? Missed regattas because of it? Buy or sell boats during it? I can tell you that I lost a potential sale of A4 because of it.

So jump in and tell us what is happening in your neck of the woods - ed.

Trying to sell my boat during this is...challenging.

Also, pretty much every country in the South Pacific except Fiji is closed to foreigners, so there's really nowhere to go if we leave NZ. So we'll hunker here for a while. They're basically shutting the country down for the next four weeks, starting tomorrow.

With the travel restrictions, no one will be able to come to NZ to look at our boat even if they wanted to. So while there have been inquiries, everything is pretty much on hold for now.

 

SOUTH PACIFIC

American Samoa: 14 DAY QUARANTINE (if arriving from affected areas)
See American Samoa Biosecurity for details

Australia: CLOSED (from 18 March)
See Australia Formalities for details

Cook Islands: CLOSED (from 18 March)
See Cook Islands Biosecurity for details

Fiji: 14 DAY QUARANTINE (from 20 March)
See Fiji Biosecurity for details

French Polynesia: CLOSED (from 18 March – Tahiti open for transit)
See French Polynesia Biosecurity for details

Galapagos: CLOSED (from 14 March)
See Galapagos Biosecurity for details

New Caledonia: CLOSED (from 18 March)
See New Caledonia Biosecurity for details

New Zealand: CLOSED (from 18 March)
See New Zealand – Biosecurity for details

Niue: CLOSED (from 19 March)
See Niue Biosecurity for details

Pitcairn Island: CLOSED (anchoring possible)
See Pitcairn Island Biosecurity for details

Samoa: CLOSED (from 21 March)
See Samoa Biosecurity for details

Solomon Islands: CLOSED (from 19 March)
See Solomon Islands Biosecurity for details

Tasmania: 14 DAY QUARANTINE (from 21 March)
See Australia Biosecurity for details

Tonga: CLOSED (from 18 March)
See Tonga Biosecurity for details

Vanuatu: CLOSED (18 March)
See Vanuatu Biosecurity for details

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On 3/20/2020 at 10:25 AM, Steam Flyer said:

Sure, pretty much everybody in Congress is a millionaire.

- DSK

Well, if they weren't when they got elected, most are pretty quick, or they are out campaigned the next round by someone who is.

4 hours ago, Israel Hands said:

I am starting to get pissed off at the extreme headlines. 

I stopped watching the news. Nothing by the same shit over and over.

 

More Rum Please.

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I still can't understand the blase attitude the US has to this, especially from the moron at the top.

If you look at Chinas death rate it is 4% of infections(3274 deaths, 81496 cases).  This is the only statistic we can use as they have apprently no more infections.

The US is exponentially growing as per the graph below and infections doubling every 2 days.  At this rate in 15 days there will be 128 times the number now, thats 4.2 million which would lead to 170,000 deaths, if there were no more infections, which will not be the case

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Data from John Hopkins University

image.png.14e588b6a5c83c73338a827efb6c0b8b.png

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21 minutes ago, Bill E Goat said:

The US is exponentially growing as per the graph below and infections doubling every 2 days.  At this rate in 15 days there will be 128 times the number now, thats 4.2 million which would lead to 170,000 deaths, if there were no more infections, which will not be the case

Here's a very simple model -- back of the envelope style -- but gives a general feel for the shape of things:

 

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170,000 deaths is only twice the average flu death rate. Not discounting that but for perspective - is it really Chicken Little time? Because our kids may live 10 years less than us because of us allowing the economy to crash into depression.

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6 minutes ago, Israel Hands said:

170,000 deaths is only twice the average flu death rate. Not discounting that but for perspective - is it really Chicken Little time? Because our kids may live 10 years less than us because of us allowing the economy to crash into depression.

As I understand it, if we do nothing the death toll is expected to be in the millions over a short time. See above, or better, the ICL report.

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21 minutes ago, Bill E Goat said:

I still can't understand the blase attitude the US has to this, especially from the moron at the top.

80% of republicans think this is just a bad flu season.  

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7 minutes ago, Israel Hands said:

170,000 deaths is only twice the average flu death rate. Not discounting that but for perspective - is it really Chicken Little time? Because our kids may live 10 years less than us because of us allowing the economy to crash into depression.

Thats 170,000 from the next 15 days at current infection rates.  And it doubles every 2 days so another week will result in 1.4 million dead

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22 hours ago, TJSoCal said:

It's still a ship and has to come down for maintenance sometime - any sailor should know that. And that's why we have two. This refit has likely been on the schedule for years and probably started well before the virus scare was a thing.

They can probably curtail some of the refitting activity but I'm sure there are some projects that will take a bit of time to wrap up - could be waiting on parts/materials, etc., plus a certain amount of testing needed after repairs are complete. But I'm sure they'll make her ready for sea as quickly as they can. Likewise all of the services (including the Navy) have land-based field hospitals and I have to imagine they're being ramped up and planning is taking place on the most effective sites.

USNS Mercy left San Diego, earlier this afternoon, on its way to San Pedro.  It is planned to use it as a referral hospital, taking non-Corona cases to free up regular hospitals.  

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6 minutes ago, Israel Hands said:

Because our kids may live 10 years less than us because of us allowing the economy to crash into depression.

Now that is some math.  How do ya figure? (before you answer, please review the history of life expectancy along with the history of market crashes, and then come back here and apologize for your panic spew).

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15 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

80% of republicans think this is just a bad flu season.  

if its not a bad flu what is it?

being infectious with no symptoms is a bit sneaky I'll give it that.

The Wuhan cough....

 

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10 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

Now that is some math.  How do ya figure? (before you answer, please review the history of life expectancy along with the history of market crashes, and then come back here and apologize for your panic spew).

Clean you and weightless go back and read the stat.com article I linked. Read the Friedman article. They explain the knock-on effects better than I can paraphrase.

This is about potentially killing an economic system due to undue panic. I’m not the one spewing panic. And I hate Trump and the current regime as much or more than anyone here. Perhaps having all the at-risk groups stay home for a month gets it done. Im not totally convinced, but I suspect there is a more-concise answer than this current one. 

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16 minutes ago, Israel Hands said:

Clean you and weightless go back and read the stat.com article I linked. Read the Friedman article.

I did. I think the statnews.com analysis is based on outdated data and already proven wrong. I've never had much time for Friedman but I read his essay when it came out.

Here's the problem: the Diamond Princess data is not holding up -- both Northern Italy and Southern New York are getting much worse outcomes right now.

Two weeks ago I was looking at the DP data and thought we had a massive but manageable problem on hand. I think that was a widely held belief. There were always some unknowns with the DP. They got great care and close monitoring but were an older population. The network dynamics are also not easy to figure out. But the point is moot. New data has come in. DP is not a good model for what we are seeing. Looking at the new data the worst case is ~population~ level fatality greater than 1% over a matter of weeks. 

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1 minute ago, weightless said:

I did. I think the statnews.com analysis is based on outdated data and already proven wrong. I've never had much time for Friedman but I read his essay when it came out.

Here's the problem: the Diamond Princess data is not holding up -- both Northern Italy and Southern New York are getting much worse outcomes right now.

Two weeks ago I was looking at the DP data and thought we had a massive but manageable problem on hand. I think that was a widely held belief. There were always some unknowns with the DP. They got great care and close monitoring but were an older population. The network dynamics are also not easy to figure out. But the point is moot. New data has come in. DP is not a good model for what we are seeing. Looking at the new data the worst case is ~population~ level fatality greater than 1% over a matter of weeks. 

Okay you have a point - DP data not matching up with China/Italy/Spain. But we need to collect and act on real data.

Apparently the Stanford doc was just on CNN, pointing out that we know neither the numerator nor denominator for the US. 

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9 minutes ago, Israel Hands said:

But we need to collect and act on real data.

Real data. 

Total reported - 378 601.  Total deaths 16504 = death rate of 4.4%

Italy Total reported - 63 927.  Total deaths 6077 = death rate of 9.5%

A bit far from the article stating "If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population"

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1 minute ago, Israel Hands said:

Okay you have a point - DP data not matching up with China/Italy/Spain. But we need to collect and act on real data.

Apparently the Stanford doc was just on CNN, pointing out that we know neither the numerator nor denominator for the US. 

Test, test, test! Yes. I agree the data is terrible in every way.  That makes dealing with the pandemic much, much harder.

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The Worldometer site is now listing 118,000 closed cases, either the people got better or died. Of this number 14% died. This seems to me a scary number. I think it makes more sense to look at closed cases since we don't really know how many are infected or of those infected how many will die. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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16 minutes ago, Bill E Goat said:

Real data. 

Total reported - 378 601.  Total deaths 16504 = death rate of 4.4%

Italy Total reported - 63 927.  Total deaths 6077 = death rate of 9.5%

A bit far from the article stating "If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population"

Canada is not testing people with no symptoms, or mild symptoms, nor is the US.  Neither country is testing back through the contact tree like Taiwan and South Korea area.  There are many uncounted mild or asymptomatic cases here, and probably elsewhere as well.  What we are seeing in the official numbers is the ratio of deaths to positive tests. 

I suspect the original estimate is not too far off the mark. 

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6 minutes ago, Bill E Goat said:

A bit far from the article stating "If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population"

I agree with your point.

But, I think you're comparing case fatality with population fatality. DP has a CFR of about 1.12%and a pop level FR of 0.22%. (pop: 3,711 with 137 cases still open and 17 in serious or critical condition). 

 

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38 minutes ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

The Worldometer site is now listing 118,000 closed cases, either the people got better or died. Of this number 14% died. This seems to me a scary number. I think it makes more sense to look at closed cases since we don't really know how many are infected or of those infected how many will die. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Fair point, If you take Chinas figures out the death rate is 25%

Italy - 45% Spain 41% Germany 21%  France 28% UK 70%

In the USA 65% of people who have caught this have DIED.  553 dead - 295 recovered.  If that is not a statistic that you should be worried about I don't know what is.

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1 hour ago, Israel Hands said:

Clean you and weightless go back and read the stat.com article I linked. Read the Friedman article. They explain the knock-on effects better than I can paraphrase.

I've read those and about 100 others in the past three days.  neither article debunks the math or the realities on the ground, and both rely on what seems to me to be highly questionable assumptions.  I have spent far too much time in italy and spain to think that any sociocultural issue there somehow makes it different from New York or Florida. If anything, it will be worse here.  

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1 minute ago, MR.CLEAN said:

I've read those and about 100 others in the past three days.  neither article debunks the math or the realities on the ground, and both rely on what seems to me to be highly questionable assumptions.  I have spent far too much time in italy and spain to think that any sociocultural issue there somehow makes it different from New York or Florida. If anything, it will be worse here.  

It may be worse here. But you are refuting a data concept without Citing data.

what is the real exposure rate? (The denominator)  How many old or compromised people will die as a result of avoiding the medical system because they fear infection? That’s a real number. I’m not saying give up or give in on the current plan, just to thoroughly process the situation and amend it if it doesn’t make sense for our kids generation. 

There are no right answers. But I hate for my kids that this is happening. I foresee them living in a depression era like my father grew up in. If we could use a more concise way of isolating the right people to protect them, and save 50% of the small businesses that will die as a result of this current track, it would be worth doing. It’s worth exploring. Not exploring it is giving into the panic.

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5 minutes ago, Israel Hands said:

 

There are no right answers. But I hate for my kids that this is happening. I foresee them living in a depression era like my father grew up in. If we could use a more concise way of isolating the right people to protect them, and save 50% of the small businesses that will die as a result of this current track, it would be worth doing. It’s worth exploring. Not exploring it is giving into the panic.

If the data are not there yet there is no other option besides not exploring it.  "Giving into the panic' is something you say because you are panicking.  

We can't even get old people out of the fucking stores.  What resources do you propose to use to concisely identify and isolate 75M people?

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1 hour ago, Israel Hands said:

Okay you have a point - DP data not matching up with China/Italy/Spain. But we need to collect and act on real data.

Apparently the Stanford doc was just on CNN, pointing out that we know neither the numerator nor denominator for the US. 

And we don't know that, because of the total disinterest in preparing.

The head of the Senate Intelligence Committee gets briefed on the best data from China and other county's virus spread & morbidity/mortality... and he quietly sells stock holdings and says not a goddam word. Of course, if he had TRIED to say anything, his own party would have stomped on him.

The USA currently has corrupt, incompetent leadership. What's worse, most of the population is spoiled and and thinks nothing bad can happen to them.

FWIW, the threat of economic downswing is there; especially considering the impending/incipient recession and the fact that the Fed fiscal policy has been exhausted trying to flog an already-running economy; and the same leaders that ignored the pandemic threat have been jacking up the deficit so their mega-rich pals don't have to pay for police and roads etc etc.

Fucked on every level, from all directions. I was watching the news this evening about the epidemic starting to hit refugee camps. They can't wash their hands because they don't have enough water to drink much less wash their hands. And we're fighting about toilet paper and half of us can't be bothered to wash our hands.

OK enough. Sorry.

FB- Doug

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1 hour ago, MR.CLEAN said:

If the data are not there yet there is no other option besides not exploring it.  "Giving into the panic' is something you say because you are panicking.  

We can't even get old people out of the fucking stores.  What resources do you propose to use to concisely identify and isolate 75M people?

I’d be more inclined to listen to the model presented in good faith by actual public health officials and consider statistical models presented re such a model if every GOP member in the Senate and WH agrees to be personally exposed by a method of my choosing and their clinical care randomly assigned. We’re all in this together right? A statistically acceptable sacrifice the elite is basically a suicide mission for others in a democracy. So let’s be real - I’ll stick a nasal swab from a patient in the ICU up my nose and try to obtain immunity. But they do it too - not protected from the unwashed masses while the suicide mission is started to "Save the economy"

McConnell managed to lose his father in law's fortune twice in 15 years. 

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2 hours ago, Israel Hands said:

It may be worse here. But you are refuting a data concept without Citing data.

what is the real exposure rate? (The denominator)  How many old or compromised people will die as a result of avoiding the medical system because they fear infection? That’s a real number. I’m not saying give up or give in on the current plan, just to thoroughly process the situation and amend it if it doesn’t make sense for our kids generation. 

There are no right answers. But I hate for my kids that this is happening. I foresee them living in a depression era like my father grew up in. If we could use a more concise way of isolating the right people to protect them, and save 50% of the small businesses that will die as a result of this current track, it would be worth doing. It’s worth exploring. Not exploring it is giving into the panic.

Two things.

1. The plan in the US is bungled. No contact tracing, no isolation of cases so as to prevent intra-houshold spread, no testing of any use. Incredibly bungled epidemiology. Staggering in fact.

2. The flu pandemic of 1919 happend. It is now 2020. Unlike a depression caused by financial shit, pandemics come to an end. There is light at the end of the tunnel. Well for some anyway.

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2 hours ago, weightless said:

Sinners_in_the_Hands_of_an_Angry_God_by_

Careful, you might get the thumpers talking about those locusts about to eat all of egypt

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A bit of brighter news;

Here in BC (only 5 million population so a relatively small sample size) perhaps a bit of a downward trend in the number of new cases in the past five days.  There is a chart showing the daily number of new cases and total cases about 1/4 of the way down the page.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-bc-update-bonnie-henry-adrian-dix-march-23-1.5506647

Which is a bit surprising since we only got serious about social distancing last Tuesday (Mar 17) which also coincided with our biggest spike in new cases.  So I would expect the effects of social distancing to just be starting to take effect - but again without rigorous testing it's probably hard to make too much of that.

Especially since Ontario has 3x BC's population and Ontario just surpassed BC in total number of cases.

We had been doing the worst by far of all Canadian provinces, so maybe just the law of averages has made Ontario surpass BC for total number of cases, IDK.

Personally, I am glad our provincial premier has not followed the lead of Ontario and has instead chosen to not shut down nonessential services - for the time being.  That could easily change I imagine if the situation here worsens over the next few days.

To summarize BC data as of March 23: 48 new cases, 472 total cases, 100 recovered, and 13 deaths (11 in long term care homes)

i wouldn't try to suss too much out of those numbers though since of the 472 cases, about 350 were added in the past week and I don't the number of deaths that can be attributed to the first 120 and the last 350.

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