Sign in to follow this  
Mid

WHO: US has potential to be "epicentre of outbreak"

Recommended Posts

Quote

A spokeswoman from the World Health Organisation has said the US risks becoming the next centre of the coronavirus outbreak as the country is experiencing a “very large acceleration” in cases.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Change “potential” to “already definitely going to be”

 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GIGO.  It's possible, but the uptick in the data appears to be solely due to the State of New York beginning a systematic testing program. The rest of the country is doing random different things, or nothing much at all.  

Can't take the numbers at face value.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, toddster said:

 Can't take the numbers at face value.

The fundamental problem with the US. Low testing rate at critical period and marginal increase even now. No test, trace and treat just test and treat. Like fighting a fire blindfolded. Also low case confirmation by low testing initially artificialy increases the case fatality ratio giving the impression that capacity to treat an elevated number of cases is under control when in reality it isn't and there is a wave of undetected cases in the pipeline building up that will cause a uncontrollable spike. Madening watching US repeat same mistakes in Italy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People need to understand and accept that this isn’t going to end soon. Just need to accept that we are collectively going to lose 1-3% of our 70+ population.  They had a good run, and it’s mostly those who are already in poor health. Sounds harsh, but it is what it is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

People need to understand and accept that this isn’t going to end soon. Just need to accept that we are collectively going to lose 1-3% of our 70+ population.  They had a good run, and it’s mostly those who are already in poor health. Sounds harsh, but it is what it is.

And another 1% of the over 60s, and a few points of the under 60s, and maybe 3% of the medically compromised people, and then maybe permanent lung damage for another few hundred thousand or possibly much more, because we have no good data for that yet. 

That might even be less than a million dead in just the US. How does that sound to you?

 On a positive note for me, that is going to be one hell of a buyer's market for houses.  I might have to change my practice to probate though.

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We had an opportunity to contain the outbreak but the response was just too slow - and even now there is insufficient federal action. Much of our culture promotes bravado and a cavalier attitude towards everything other than dollars, freedoms and bald eagles. We're probably screwed, good luck everybody your government failed you.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, toddster said:

GIGO.  It's possible, but the uptick in the data appears to be solely due to the State of New York beginning a systematic testing program. The rest of the country is doing random different things, or nothing much at all.  

Can't take the numbers at face value.

Its not the number of tests in NY, its the number of people testing positive as a percentage of the tests. This is currently running at 28% vs 8% in the rest of the nation. This penetration rate shows without doubt that CV19 had been running around longer than people knew in NY and Tristate.   Most models show that NY is going to be the third sequential epicenter after Wuhan and Lombardy. The problem is that New York has a much bigger population than Lombardy and much less means of demographic control (closing roads , quarantining neighborhoods and  the city itself) than China so it is likely the % of population impacted will be greater than Wuhan and the number impacted will be greater than Lombardy. New York itself will exceed the number of cases and mortality than either.   Expect a 2nd level of lock down......and if you live there, move to as strict an isolation regime as you can.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The state is forecasting that NY needs 140,000 hospital beds.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Controversial_posts said:

People need to understand and accept that this isn’t going to end soon. Just need to accept that we are collectively going to lose 1-3% of our 70+ population.  They had a good run, and it’s mostly those who are already in poor health. Sounds harsh, but it is what it is.

In Spain and Italy the mortality rate for people aged over 70 is 87%. Good health or bad health. It does not matter 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, MR.CLEAN said:

That might even be less than a million dead in just the US. How does that sound to you?

It’s quite sad. and for the first time, your generation is confronted with something that can’t really be stopped, which clearly terrifies you.

but society will move past this, as long we dont panic. Your parents or grandparents generation dealt with WW2 and the depression and survived that. Most everyone will survive this too, but not everyone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

It’s quite sad. and for the first time, your generation is confronted with something that can’t really be stopped, which clearly terrifies you.

I'm not sure which straw man you are talking to.   

I am personally not even a little scared even though I had the talk with my family that there is a good chance one or more of the grandparents or great grandparents will not make it.  I have more business than I have ever had and have been working remotely for the better part of 15 years.  I am enjoying my time with my daughter.  I cashed out of my long positions in December.  None of us have any health problems.  And as callous as it is, the more old people die the cheaper waterfront property will get.

Why do you think this can't be stopped?  Why are you so scared? Time will end the threat as it does with almost all of them. The only questions are how many dead and how big a hit to the economy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

I have more business than I have ever had and have been working remotely for the better part of 15 years.  I am enjoying my time with my daughter.  I cashed out of my long positions in December.  

You sound very successful, and still have had time to post 7.5 times a day for the last 15 years... an expert on sailing, life, and now COVID data analysis...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

to be fair it was about 50 a day for a while there.

SA is and always will be my primary procrastination tool.  It gives me a much needed break from the day's business. Today I drafted a settlement for a finra arbitration after breakfast,  rewrote a purchase agreement for a credit union branch after lunch, and reviewed and commented on the client comments to my analysis of the latest round of SEC comments to an S-1 registration.  If I didn't waste two hours on SA over the course of the day I would have been able to bill 10 hours.

I only billed 8.5...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, toddster said:

GIGO.  It's possible, but the uptick in the data appears to be solely due to the State of New York beginning a systematic testing program. The rest of the country is doing random different things, or nothing much at all.  

Can't take the numbers at face value.

We have only tested ~1700 as of this morn.  There are ~1400 test kits available.   
 

Orange County with 3.2 mill population.

152 cases reported and no deaths.

Numbers seem meaningless at this point until that “tested” number bumps up.  We gain about 25 new cases a day.

Warm weather days coming.  (70-80 degs) 
 

Hoo rah for the labs going all-out on the vaccine.   A lot of tech & industry around OC. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Moron #1 would love to see churches full by Easter Sunday.

Meanwhile in other parts of the world, Hong Kong, which did a reasonably good job of stomping the curve with aggressive quarantine measures over the last couple of months, is now experiencing a 2X uptick in cases after relaxing social distancing rules. Now that borders have opened, an arrival is issued a corona fitbit that rings the authorities if the wearer leaves their residence/hotel within 14 days mandated by law quarantine.  See where I'm going with this?

In gleaning worldwide stats, start with discounting China's stall at 81,000ish and their soon to be %90 recovery rate(no comment on the veracity of the numbers, but take it out of the equation for extrapolation purposes and compare with western numbers only).  Look across the board, especially with European countries and look for % daily uptick in both cases and deaths, and look for % recovery rate. They may be subsiding slightly but put a timeline on it.  

You might find by looking at the numbers that the U.S. would seem to be at the beginning of the process.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No matter what happens with this bug in the States it won't be Trumps responsibility.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And as always the fucking US of A is behind what the rest of the world is doing.. Well done to those who voted for Trump. It WILL be the next epicentre just through ignorance and arrogance well supported by you leader.............

  • Like 1
  • Downvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But he said it was a Chinese problem so relax and get your best Easter outfit ready.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Zonker said:

Shit just got real.

The Waffle House restaurant chain announced Tuesday it is closing 365 locations across the country as companies grapple with the coronavirus outbreak.

If this doesn't convince people in the South, nothing will.

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/489379-waffle-house-shutters-365-locations

Second largest source of infection for maga after the rallies? I miss the rallies.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, thetruth said:

And as always the fucking US of A is behind what the rest of the world is doing.. Well done to those who voted for Trump. It WILL be the next epicentre just through ignorance and arrogance well supported by you leader.............

The brits aren’t far behind for a fucked up strategy either. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, TDTW said:

In Spain and Italy the mortality rate for people aged over 70 is 87%. Good health or bad health. It does not matter 

You must be completely mistaken!

Please quote your source.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

Second largest source of infection for maga after the rallies? I miss the rallies.

And the pathetic part: Waffle House sucks. Worst waffles and most depressing graphics I've ever experienced.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, IPLore said:

Its not the number of tests in NY, its the number of people testing positive as a percentage of the tests. This is currently running at 28% vs 8% in the rest of the nation. This penetration rate shows without doubt that CV19 had been running around longer than people knew in NY and Tristate.   Most models show that NY is going to be the third sequential epicenter after Wuhan and Lombardy. The problem is that New York has a much bigger population than Lombardy and much less means of demographic control (closing roads , quarantining neighborhoods and  the city itself) than China so it is likely the % of population impacted will be greater than Wuhan and the number impacted will be greater than Lombardy. New York itself will exceed the number of cases and mortality than either.   Expect a 2nd level of lock down......and if you live there, move to as strict an isolation regime as you can.

There are NY license plates all over my town now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

You sound very successful, and still have had time to post 7.5 times a day for the last 15 years... an expert on sailing, life, and now COVID data analysis...

Who knew broadcasting from a dinghy regatta in South Carolina was so lucrative!  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wife and I never get around to reading most of our subscription magazines right away.  We catch up occasionally and just came across the fascinating series of articles in the Nov 2017 Smithsonian Magazine about the 1918 spanish flu.  Its an eye popping, eerily familiar account of what went on then; govt lying, snafus and coverups, vs what we’re now going thru now.  In 1918 it likely began in Kansas where hog farms and avian flyways intersect and only called spanish flu bc it was widely reported in Spain who was not at war.  News about it was blacked out in the USA and Europe due sedition laws and propaganda about it being no big deal. It was a horrible death and widely spread by the US Army at home and abroad.  Intriguingly, it stated that Trumps grandfather died of it in 1918.  You’d think the grankid would take it seriously.  I don’t know if you can get the magazine on line but I highly recommend it.  Fauci as well as others were mentioned in the article about modern research.  During a Pandemic “war” exercise in LA the author briefed the players about the mistakes made in 1918, including govt losing the public trust by lying.  He said:  “you tell the truth, you don’t manage the truth”.  He was horrified when the exercise began and the first thing done by the lead public health official was a press release to deceive the public!   That made it very hard to catch up and get ahead of curve during the exercise .  OK I found the link to the main article:   It is very interesting and well written. There’s other flu related articles in that edition, also very interesting, and apropos; Chinese live market virus incubators, current (2017) vaccine research etc.  I’ll also give em a plug; this is a great magazine and comes to your door for $12 a year.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, blunderfull said:

We have only tested ~1700 as of this morn.  There are ~1400 test kits available.   
 

Orange County with 3.2 mill population.

152 cases reported and no deaths.

Numbers seem meaningless at this point until that “tested” number bumps up.  We gain about 25 new cases a day.

Warm weather days coming.  (70-80 degs) 
 

Hoo rah for the labs going all-out on the vaccine.   A lot of tech & industry around OC. 

To me the testing feels like nothing more than a feel good measure. The results take days to come back so a person very well may have been exposed in the interim or the person could be early in the progress of the disease and have a false negative. It makes sense for those that did have the disease and want to get out of quarantine to be tested but other than that it just seems like a huge waste of resources. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

US has younger, less dense population, better air quality, better health facilities than China, Italy, Iran. We are much better off than most. NYC is very densely populated, unlike most of the country.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Zonker said:

Shit just got real.

The Waffle House restaurant chain announced Tuesday it is closing 365 locations across the country as companies grapple with the coronavirus outbreak.

If this doesn't convince people in the South, nothing will.

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/489379-waffle-house-shutters-365-locations

Probably a big burden taken off the healthcare system if they never re open.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

to be fair it was about 50 a day for a while there.

SA is and always will be my primary procrastination tool.  It gives me a much needed break from the day's business. Today I drafted a settlement for a finra arbitration after breakfast,  rewrote a purchase agreement for a credit union branch after lunch, and reviewed and commented on the client comments to my analysis of the latest round of SEC comments to an S-1 registration.  If I didn't waste two hours on SA over the course of the day I would have been able to bill 10 hours.

I only billed 8.5...

 

Better Call Saul Alan  ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mark Set said:

US has younger, less dense population, better air quality, better health facilities than China, Italy, Iran. We are much better off than most. NYC is very densely populated, unlike most of the country.

Forget about all that. Your biggest advantage v Europe is average fridge size. For lockdown and all that nonsense.

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, IPLore said:

Better Call Saul Alan  ;)

fucking 5 hours today on a goddamn purchase agreement with the seller from hell!  68 pages for 1.2 acres of outlot.  Another reason I shop at ACE rather than national chain that shall not be named but share a color with the preznit.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Fiji Bitter said:

You must be completely mistaken!

Please quote your source.

 

Yeah, TDTW is way off. The morality rate is not that high. For Italy the mortality rate for 70-79 year olds was 12.8% and for over 80s was 20.2% as of March 17.   

Source: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667

I'm sure it hasn't risen that much in a week.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, MR.CLEAN said:

fucking 5 hours today on a goddamn purchase agreement with the seller from hell!  68 pages for 1.2 acres of outlot.  Another reason I shop at ACE rather than national chain that shall not be named but share a color with the preznit.

The despotic one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, RobC7 said:

Yeah, TDTW is way off. The morality rate is not that high. For Italy the mortality rate for 70-79 year olds was 12.8% and for over 80s was 20.2% as of March 17.   

Source: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667

I'm sure it hasn't risen that much in a week.

Just quoting what the news station was saying here in Spain. I suppose they got there numbers from the ministerio de sanidad. 
 

I would be very happy to be wrong. Anyway can’t find any online evidence to support that claim. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NYC is being hit so hard as they decided to delay shutting down by another week and a half after CA nd WA (and then left the restaurants open until the next Sunday night). Living on a prayer.

And I would sure like to see an expose on the pandemic planning (or lack thereof) for the countries, states, counties and hospital systems - they all seemed to know this was coming  from last year's WHO recommendations, etc, yet had zero capacity or supply chains to meet any of it

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, DarkHorse said:

NYC is being hit so hard as they decided to delay shutting down by another week and a half after CA nd WA (and then left the restaurants open until the next Sunday night). Living on a prayer.

And I would sure like to see an expose on the pandemic planning (or lack thereof) for the countries, states, counties and hospital systems - they all seemed to know this was coming  from last year's WHO recommendations, etc, yet had zero capacity or supply chains to meet any of it

Hospital systems in the US can’t build up the stockpile - they don’t have enough cash reserves and there’s always significant service - reimbursement lag. 
 

Our local hospitals, out of an abundance of caution cancelled all elective procedures that aren’t essential now to provide more beds and supportive care - also protect patients and clinician providers. Those procedures provide the liquidity. 
 

This is why we have governments. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/24/2020 at 10:55 PM, thetruth said:

And as always the fucking US of A is behind what the rest of the world is doing.. Well done to those who voted for Trump. It WILL be the next epicentre just through ignorance and arrogance well supported by you leader.............

On 3/25/2020 at 6:03 AM, mad said:

The brits aren’t far behind for a fucked up strategy either. 

You 2 people scare the shit out of me. Partisan Pussies Pointing Fingers

In the USA you must remember that we are a Republic where the States are and have and Scream for Autonomy. They hate Federal incursion in their borders. Unless of course it benefits their narrative. In the High Tax States that are also the hardest hit areas, WHY were they not prepared for this either? They have their own tax system, Legislatures??  There are no Sanctuary Cities anymore..............thank you very much. 

You can find all kinds of state knuckle heads in February Calling Trump a racist for banning travel from certain countries.  Now, just try traveling.There was no way to predict what was going to happen when China was lying to the world and continues too.

I'm just glad I do not live in a Mega Population Center, aka Petri Dish
Though LA is not that far away, but I do not travel. I'm being good and hiding in my squirrel hole.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Miffy said:

Hospital systems in the US can’t build up the stockpile - they don’t have enough cash reserves ...

since when does it require cash to buy things?

The problem is the supply chain, which is mostly in China who ave kept many shipments due to the US for themselves out of their own need. Also, i read that our original test kit supplier had its factory in Italy. A perfect storm of bad luck it seems.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Mark Set said:

since when does it require cash to buy things?

The problem is the supply chain, which is mostly in China who ave kept many shipments due to the US for themselves out of their own need. Also, i read that our original test kit supplier had its factory in Italy. A perfect storm of bad luck it seems.

A regional supplier needs cash flow. The hospital needs cash flow. You can’t just infinitely say I need 500,000 masks maintained in a warehouse, 20,000 ventilators bagged up ready to go sitting around idle. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Mark Set said:

China who ave kept many shipments due to the US for themselves out of their own need.

that's false and if it was true who would blame them considering what the orange shitstain has sent in their direction .

 

btw educate yourself :

Coronavirus: Masks and test kits donated by Jack Ma arrive in US

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3075469/coronavirus-masks-and-test-kits-donated-jack-ma-arrive-us

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/25/2020 at 6:43 PM, Zonker said:

Shit just got real.

The Waffle House restaurant chain announced Tuesday it is closing 365 locations across the country as companies grapple with the coronavirus outbreak.

If this doesn't convince people in the South, nothing will.

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/489379-waffle-house-shutters-365-locations

At least someones not waffling

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trump touts great success as US becomes world's worst virus epicenter

Quote

On Thursday, a day that saw more reported deaths from Covid-19 than ever before in the United States -- Trump bizarrely turned the focus to what he said was a far lower mortality rate than he had expected.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/27/politics/donald-trump-coronavirus-response/index.html

 

....................................

 

Ain't your president good to you ...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now that US is at the top of the list do we think China will start admitting tI more than 60 new cases a day as long as they stay below the US.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SCARECROW said:

Now that US is at the top of the list do we think China will start admitting tI more than 60 new cases a day as long as they stay below the US.

If social distancing works and all indications are that done properly it does , then they may well not have to .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Mid said:

Trump touts great success as US becomes world's worst virus epicenter

ET4fFUiUMAALAFB.thumb.jpeg.c2706d0cfd62a8aff770b1bc24e59398.jpeg

Fuck what a surprise....wind forward 3 weeks

A country that doesn't have a national lock down directive (being done by some States) is being urged back to work by their leader, who thinks the virus is being transmitted via Canadian steel.

What could possibly go wrong.

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Deciderer: Donald J Trump

The Advisorer: Jared Kushner

What could possibly go wrong.   Brought to you by Alfred E. Neumann

3ua0hz.jpg

  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wasn’t he running around shaking hands with patients as if he didn’t understand germ theory is no longer a hypothesis?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Miffy said:

Wasn’t he running around shaking hands with patients as if he didn’t understand germ theory is no longer a hypothesis?

Yes.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

ET4fFUiUMAALAFB.thumb.jpeg.c2706d0cfd62a8aff770b1bc24e59398.jpeg

Fuck what a surprise....wind forward 3 weeks

A country that doesn't have a national lock down directive (being done by some States) is being urged back to work by their leader, who thinks the virus is being transmitted via Canadian steel.

What could possibly go wrong.

 

 

The general feeling up here in the GWN is that the troops are being placed there to stop US citizens from seeking refuge in Canada when the shit really hits the fan down there in a week or so.  Because it would be so embarrassing for the Orange Cheeto to have US citizens acting like refugees and trying to get out of the US to save their lives.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Mid said:

If social distancing works and all indications are that done properly it does , then they may well not have to .

China just re-closed movie theaters across the country after reopening them a week ago, yet continue to claim no new cases. There are riots erupting on the bridges to get out of Hubei. If you believe their count you are delusional. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Mark Set said:

China just re-closed movie theaters across the country after reopening them a week ago, yet continue to claim no new cases. There are riots erupting on the bridges to get out of Hubei. If you believe their count you are delusional. 

Cite? 
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/24/2020 at 1:39 PM, AmericanVagrant said:

We had an opportunity to contain the outbreak but the response was just too slow - and even now there is insufficient federal action. Much of our culture promotes bravado and a cavalier attitude towards everything other than dollars, freedoms and bald eagles. We're probably screwed, good luck everybody your government failed you.

yea, this.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/26/2020 at 3:32 AM, TDTW said:

 

 

On 3/26/2020 at 3:32 AM, TDTW said:

Just quoting what the news station was saying here in Spain. I suppose they got there numbers from the ministerio de sanidad. 
 

I would be very happy to be wrong. Anyway can’t find any online evidence to support that claim. 

Well it could be that the statistic was reporting on the percentage of elderly people amongst those that died. In other words 87% of the fatalities were elderly. Not that 87% of elderly people died

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, mad said:
3 hours ago, Mark Set said:

China just re-closed movie theaters across the country after reopening them a week ago, yet continue to claim no new cases. There are riots erupting on the bridges to get out of Hubei. If you believe their count you are delusional. 

Cite? 

Video of it here from this lady along with other interesting stuff.

 

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/24/2020 at 10:43 PM, Zonker said:

Shit just got real.

The Waffle House restaurant chain announced Tuesday it is closing 365 locations across the country as companies grapple with the coronavirus outbreak.

 

Where are the reapers going to hang out?

Or will they be too busy to have any down time?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Miffy said:

...germ theory ...

BJ and the narcissistic orange sociopath no doubt view this just like the other 'theories' that aren't quite proven enough if they don't suit established positions based on hubris/power/greed  - you know, like heliocentrism, gravity, natural selection, relativity, quantum etc.   All mere theories.   

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/mar/27/corona-prince-johnson-designated-survivors-

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/27/trump-narcissism-american-blood-coronavirus

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest numbers I've seen put the U.S. as the epicenter now.

Most cases in the world - into 6 figures.

MAGA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, d'ranger said:

The Deciderer: Donald J Trump

The Advisorer: Jared Kushner

What could possibly go wrong.   Brought to you by Alfred E. Neumann

3ua0hz.jpg

Reposting in honor of a local sailor with no sense of humor and/or Trumper.  Plus, I am an asshole. Mark Set and Match. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whatever Japan is doing, it isn't working enough.  Tokyo just shut itself down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, MR.CLEAN said:

Whatever Japan is doing, it isn't working enough.  Tokyo just shut itself down.

Japan had a much slower spread. One thing they did was order everyone to wear masks all the time, unlike most countries. Guess they're catching up. Rumor is there will be an order in the US for everyone in public to wear masks, but where will we get them?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Mark Set said:

Japan had a much slower spread. One thing they did was order everyone to wear masks all the time, unlike most countries. Guess they're catching up. Rumor is there will be an order in the US for everyone in public to wear masks, but where will we get them?

It’ll never happen in the US. The federal government has not even issued any coordinated stay at home response and governors and county executives are doing all the work. The CDC is going to keep making new recommendations as the situation develops but it is about directive as grandma telling me to eat vegetables  

Abe’s gov has struggled balancing wanting the Olympic to happen and not locking Japan down and keeping cases contained. Their strategy isn’t gonna work but at least they’ve bought 3 months to prepare. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/24/2020 at 5:48 PM, fufkin said:

Moron #1 would love to see churches full by Easter Sunday.

Sure the churches will be full.  Just like in Italy.

Coronavirus deaths spike in Italy as country reports its deadliest ...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don’t even have enough mortuary services to be able to give proper funerals. 
 

NYC area hospitals have used ~45 refrigerated trucks. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Miffy said:

Don’t even have enough mortuary services to be able to give proper funerals. 

And with groups of more than 2 or 3 largely banned, no more family funerals, cremations and interments. 

Not only can't you visit your dying loved ones in hospital, you can't even bury them either.

There will be lots of sadness among the survivors.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have friends working in Mount Sinai and even assuming the medical staff are properly protected (they’re not) - I’m expecting a lot of early retirement disability attrition - you don’t recover from watching patient after patient drown and there’s nothing you can do. 
 

The idiots who think we’re going to back in Easter are probably the same idiots who think war is easy and trauma is not real. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, SloopJonB said:

Latest numbers I've seen put the U.S. as the epicenter now.

Most cases in the world - into 6 figures.

MAGA

Shouldn't that be adjusted by population?  Might as well compare to EU

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, impetuous_donkey said:

Shouldn't that be adjusted by population?  Might as well compare to EU

Correct but there is a trend line for fatalities over time (not corrected per capita) that is a good guide. The US and UK are going to shit. See current below.

This is not unexpected both having both done nothing in February after their first cases in late January and spent most of March still fucking around.

http___com_ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-us_s3.amazonaws.thumb.png.79ca517c57581c121f0408050fea32fd.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Correct but there is a trend line for fatality over time (not corrected per capita) that is a good guide. The US and UK are going to shit.

This is not unexpected both having both done nothing in February after their first cases in late January and spent most March still fucking around.

http___com_ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-us_s3.amazonaws.thumb.png.79ca517c57581c121f0408050fea32fd.png

How is this a good guide? it  just seems like a useless metric to me 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ah, but we're also only counting people who manage to get tested before they die, so the numbers won't get too bad!

Something along the lines of, "If you can't see it, it can't see you."  

 

Latin America could be an up-coming shit-show...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, impetuous_donkey said:

How is this a good guide? it  just seems like a useless metric to me 

For an individual country (forget comparison if not pop corrected) it is a very good guide of an individual  country's fatality rate over time. I didn't say otherwise hence my first word "correct"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, toddster said:

Ah, but we're also only counting people who manage to get tested before they die, so the numbers won't get too bad!

Something along the lines of, "If you can't see it, it can't see you."  

 

Latin America could be an up-coming shit-show...

Amongst epidemiologist circles, I’m hearing charting total deaths as a better indicator of the epidemic progression. The clinical presentation is very consistent - the treating physicians have no incentive to fudge numbers or cases or testing criterion. 
 

Brazil, Indonesia, India Pakistan and eventually North African countries and others like Nigeria and South Africa are all doomed. 
 

and unfortunately it all comes back to no one taking the Taiwanese December warning about the PRC/CCP as seriously as they should. 

Notice how the chicom apologists have all gone quiet. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Miffy said:

and unfortunately it all comes back to no one taking the Taiwanese December warning about the PRC/CCP as seriously as they should.

Agree. It didn't help that Tedros and the WHO shut the Taiwanese out of official channels and forced them to go through the China delegation. Taiwan on the other hand remembers quite well how it was treated under SARS in 2003 and took appropriate action very early. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Miffy said:

The idiots who think we’re going to back in Easter are probably the same idiots who think war is easy and trauma is not real. 

Their name is Trump.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, impetuous_donkey said:

How is this a good guide? it  just seems like a useless metric to me 

I found this quite informative about the graphs and the stats. 
 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Miffy said:

Amongst epidemiologist circles, I’m hearing charting total deaths as a better indicator of the epidemic progression. The clinical presentation is very consistent - the treating physicians have no incentive to fudge numbers or cases or testing criterion. 
 

Brazil, Indonesia, India Pakistan and eventually North African countries and others like Nigeria and South Africa are all doomed. 
 

and unfortunately it all comes back to no one taking the Taiwanese December warning about the PRC/CCP as seriously as they should. 

Notice how the chicom apologists have all gone quiet. 

In retrospect, total deaths could be useful for describing the post mortem. In the now, most will get chalked up to “other causes”because there is no COVID test. 

Frankly, I think this whole thing is showing up the very worst of both the left and the right.  It’s getting time for the competent to reluctantly  start to take a stand.

Actually, I’m uncertain about the geographic effects.  For example, WHO data seems to show that Mexico has very low incidence of influenza, compared to USA.  IDK if this is due to reporting error, or if there is a real latitudinal effect that could save them.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites