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10 hours ago, dorydude said:

Then, dickhead, if you are in that category, isolate yourself and practice common sense - as I have done. Don't expect the whole fucking country to close down. That's just selfish.

 

My wife has a 93 year old fiend. We keep checking on her, and she's never home. Turns out she's getting on with life. She knows the risks , but says she would rather die of the virus than die of boredom. Her choice.

Does the 93 year old ‘fiend’ sneak out and bang the ‘Doctor who runs a hospital’. Why all the Butthurt about the economy? Didn’t your dole payment just get doubled? 

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DD

I'm intrigued your fiend at the hospital. 

My wife's friend is a ICU nurse,  high up in that field.  Her hospital icu is full of covid19 and half of the icu patients are below 50. There is a lot of long lung term damage to the young as well.

This is in the Dallas region. Not considered to be a big hot spot yet. 

Ive seen most of your stuff in this thread but not all.

Do you accept that it seems the general 1 per cent mortality rises to 5 per cent during medical infrastructure break down? 

 

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1 hour ago, dfw_sailor said:

Do you accept that it seems the general 1 per cent mortality rises to 5 per cent during medical infrastructure break down? 

It will be more than "just" 5% if the medical system really breaks.
5% are "just" the patients that require ventilation. Many to most of the next 15% who require supplemental oxygen also get real problem without it.

Many forget that all the patients that the medical system deals with every day did not suddenly evaporate. Things that were very survivable two weeks ago are now a very real problem in the hard hit areas...

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2 hours ago, dfw_sailor said:

 

DD

I'm intrigued your fiend at the hospital. 

My wife's friend is a ICU nurse,  high up in that field.  Her hospital icu is full of covid19 and half of the icu patients are below 50. There is a lot of long lung term damage to the young as well.

This is in the Dallas region. Not considered to be a big hot spot yet. 

Ive seen most of your stuff in this thread but not all.

Do you accept that it seems the general 1 per cent mortality rises to 5 per cent during medical infrastructure break down? 

 

Depends how you slant the statistics.

 

Italy is not differentiating between people who die BECAUSE of Covid-19 and those who die WITH it. Huge difference as most of the dead were very old or already terminally ill. I assume other places are doing the same.

 

Remember the seasonal flu kills and fucks up a lot of people every year. In the US, 80,000 died in the 2017/2018 season.

 

 

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5 hours ago, LB 15 said:

Does the 93 year old ‘fiend’ sneak out and bang the ‘Doctor who runs a hospital’. Why all the Butthurt about the economy? Didn’t your dole payment just get doubled? 

Oh, cheap shots now?

Yes , I made a tiny typo.

FYI, I am retired and very cashed up. I am in a position to do extremely well if this nonsense continues, however I kind of liked the old world. I just had to cancel a 2 month holiday in Europe. On top of frequent international trips, I also miss restaurants, dinner parties and ,of course, racing on the harbour.

 

 

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2 hours ago, dorydude said:

......FYI, I am retired and very cashed up. I am in a position to do extremely well if this nonsense continues, however I kind of liked the old world. I just had to cancel a 2 month holiday in Europe. On top of frequent international trips, I also miss restaurants, dinner parties and ,of course, racing on the harbour.

You also refuse to answer questions that blow up your "do bugger all" virus response narrative as you want to preserve your economic position over that of saving lives. You really are a first class cunt.

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On 3/28/2020 at 6:27 AM, toad said:

You have been trained over your lifetime to bow at the altar of the stock market with its high priest economists, as a reward for your fealty you have been given a few crumbs as long as you don't question the system.

Here we are in the middle of a crisis that will kill vast numbers of Australians who by the way are the engine of the economy and the supposed reason for the economy, yet here you are saying let them die because they are old or .1 percent of some number? Reduced to numbers and statistics its easy to kill people- whether by omission or commission.

Every wondered how normal people standby and let their armies prosecute endless wars against poor people or commit genocide? It's the easy banality of it that always surprises me.

Every considered the possibility that since the US fed can make 14 trillion available overnight or that govts around the world can suddenly find vast sums of money that perhaps the system isn't quite what you think it is and can look after the little guy instead of the elite?

 

 

So who's economy should we rescue?  

 

try this for some sanity. https://nationalpost.com/opinion/munk-debates-were-making-high-stakes-covid-19-decisions-without-reliable-data

 

At the moment, we are enacting extremely severe measures in an effort to do something. However, we have very little evidence-based data on how to guide our next steps. We really don’t know where we are, where we are heading, whether our measures are effective, or if we need to modify them. There is a possibility that many of our aggressive measures could be doing more harm than good, especially if they are to be maintained in the long term. There will be major consequences in terms of lives lost, major disruptions to the economy, to the society, and to our civilization.

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1 hour ago, duncan (the other one) said:

try this for some sanity. https://nationalpost.com/opinion/munk-debates-were-making-high-stakes-covid-19-decisions-without-reliable-data

At the moment, we are enacting extremely severe measures in an effort to do something. However, we have very little evidence-based data on how to guide our next steps. We really don’t know where we are, where we are heading, whether our measures are effective, or if we need to modify them. There is a possibility that many of our aggressive measures could be doing more harm than good, especially if they are to be maintained in the long term. There will be major consequences in terms of lives lost, major disruptions to the economy, to the society, and to our civilization.

Dunc Ioannidis wrote a paper along those lines what he says briefly there 2 weeks ago. It was worthless shit. Appears to be politically motivated to back US Administrations do fuck all response policy and attack the states which are taking it seriously. Interestingly Trump is now starting to row back.

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

You also refuse to answer questions that blow up your "do bugger all" virus response narrative as you want to preserve your economic position over that of saving lives. You really are a first class cunt.

You are an angry little fucker , aren't you?

 

Apparently nothing I say pleases you as you don't seem to understand my posts.

 

I never said "do bugger all" , I said identify the "at risk " groups and protect them, and I never considered my economic position as a factor in any solution.I'll be fine whatever the government does.

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

You also refuse to answer questions that blow up your "do bugger all" virus response narrative......

 

28 minutes ago, dorydude said:

You are an angry little fucker , aren't you?

Apparently nothing I say pleases you as you don't seem to understand my posts.....

Not angry, just alergic to dumb cunts who refuse to answer questions, knowing if they did, then is obvious they were dropped at birth not once, but twice. 

21 hours ago, dorydude said:

...You are losing sight of the fact that this is just a bad  flu....

 

On 3/27/2020 at 11:21 PM, jack_sparrow said:

Really go tell that to those with kids..young and middle aged parents who have it ..hope you get it cunt 

ETRSdK5WAAcKYpS.jpeg.de53d11824e9648f8772408b9fe1ec46.jpeg

 

On 3/28/2020 at 8:07 AM, dorydude said:

...If you could understand the figures in the right hand column, you would realise that the percentage risk is minute.... 

 

On 3/28/2020 at 12:56 PM, jack_sparrow said:

The right hand column is the body bag count after treatment, it is not a fatality risk factor before treatment moron.

You obviously haven't a fucking clue about the general and ICU/ventilator bed count in Australia, the expected number requiring hospitalisation and ICU ratio. Work that out and you might shut the fuck up, but I somehow doubt that.

 

19 hours ago, dorydude said:

Why do you keep banging on about ICU beds? 

 

19 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Are you fuckin serious??? How about if you need one (current expected ratio was 15% and now 30% off all hospital admissions) and there is no vacancy you leave there in a body bag. 

 

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26 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

Not angry, just alergic to dumb cunts who refuse to answer questions, knowing if they did, then is obvious they were dropped at birth not once, but twice. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No, you just have serious comprehension problems.

 

The seasonal flu kills young, healthy adults every fucking year and you want to pretend it doesn't?

 

Our Health Minister was interviewed on ABC a couple of days ago re the extra ICU beds. He said they were ready to go, but would not be in place until needed but that he doubted very much that they would be needed. The dumb bitch interviewing him kept pressuring for a date, but the Minister insisted that their prediction was they wouldn't be needed.

 

Similarly, the Poms have backed down on their "510,000 dead"  prediction and now say up to 20,000 could die...which is a slightly higher than average figure.

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54 minutes ago, dorydude said:

No, you just have serious  comprehension problems.

Our Health Minister was interviewed on ABC a couple of days ago re the extra ICU beds. He said they were ready to go, but would not be in place until needed but that he doubted very much that they would be needed. 

So I have serious comprehension problems ...really.

You really are mortally afraid to answer the question aren't you you slippery fucker. 

I'm not interested in a kerbside political sound bite about ICU beds. Many reasons incl they are not just beds. They are infrastructure incl surrounds reticulation/equipment/vents/specialised ICU staff (incl1 per shift/3 per day) etc.

510,000 dead back down in UK??? Fuck your bullshit really is getting tiresome.

54 minutes ago, dorydude said:

Similarly, the Poms have backed down on their "510,000 dead"  prediction and now say up to 20,000 could die...which is a slightly higher than average figure.

There was no 510,000 dead in play in the UK.That was Do Nothing or if No Action Was Taken.

blog_imperial_college_worst_case.thumb.jpg.f8d05e38b984fd772ba7e291930ad857.jpg

They have not revised down, the have revised up (as of 16 March). This is on account they then doubled the rate of hospital admissions requiring ICU from 15% to 30%. I have already told you that, but you just ignore.

Background to that is here. 

22 March Sunday Times - The inside story of how Boris Johnson changed his priorities - save lives first and then salvage economy.

232236975_ETs7rK0VAAAmWC-(1).jpeg.bcbab38d5b771b8d602b215d5bd1fd41.jpeg

To back up what I say, you will find actual reports in the depository of scientific advise the UK are using here.  SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies - Covid-19 That is where the above 510K graph came from.

Go chew on that.

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Jeeesus Jacko.

Steady on.

You appear to be pounding the fuck out of your keyboard.

I'm surprised it still works.

Why post shit like this? quote "Really go tell that to those with kids..young and middle aged parents who have it ..hope you get it cunt " unquote

Obviously you are scared , being in the susceptible age demographic, but posting crap like this makes you look like a goose.

 

 

 

 

  On 3/27/2020 at 10:51 PM, jack_sparrow said:

Really go tell that to those with kids..young and middle aged parents who have it ..hope you get it cunt 

ETRSdK5WAAcKYpS.jpeg.de53d11824e9648f8772408b9fe1ec46.jpeg

 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Obviously you are scared , being in the susceptible age demographic, but posting crap like this makes you look like a goose.

And in iso week 3 on account fucked immune system. Shit deserves shit and repeat offenders no mercy.

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do get away from throwing insults at each other & support me helping friends "stranded" in frnch Polynesie because of the COVID regs!

who has first hand knowledge of a foreign flagged cruising boat arriving in Oz during the last few days? How were they treated, what happened?

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On 3/27/2020 at 10:57 PM, dorydude said:

Whatever you say, the risk to healthy people under 50 is minimal

"The Public Health Agency of Canada says roughly one in ten hospitalized cases of COVID-19 is a patient under 40-years-old."

... 

"Experts caution though that the lower number is still significant and confirms that young adults need to take the disease seriously. The hospitalization for younger generations shows that they are getting “really, really sick,” Matthew Miller, an associate professor at McMaster University’s Michael G. DeGroote Institute for Infectious Disease Research, said Saturday.

“I’m a pandemic flu expert and this is not the flu,” he said, “This is very different, it’s certainly worse for young adults than the flu.”

source:   https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-people-under-40-account-for-nearly-one-third-of-hospitalized-covid-1/

 

Now if we add the 40-50's then obviously it rises above 10%. So, no the risk is not "minimal"

 

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So assuming everyone has finished their little spat.

What does everyone think about tonight press conference?

We've been trying to stop the 72 year old MIL going to 3 different supermarkets 2 times a week for the last fortnight at least.

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2 hours ago, Zonker said:

"The Public Health Agency of Canada says roughly one in ten hospitalized cases of COVID-19 is a patient under 40-years-old."

... 

 

Now this is where the repeating of "facts" with no qualifications is just plain alarmist,

Shame on you.

Early days.

They have been stuffing as many cases as they can into hospitals for study purposes.

Building the knowledge base.

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1 hour ago, tane said:

do get away from throwing insults at each other & support me helping friends "stranded" in frnch Polynesie because of the COVID regs!

who has first hand knowledge of a foreign flagged cruising boat arriving in Oz during the last few days? How were they treated, what happened?

They won't get clearance to enter if after shutdown so stuck where they are. If departed before will go into quarantine. Logistics for that will depend where they clear in. Smaller place like Bundaberg better than Brisbane.

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8 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Now this is where the repeating of "facts" with no qualifications is just plain alarmist,

Shame on you.

Why do you put facts in quotes? The quote is a fact. Sorry you don't like it.

8 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

They have been stuffing as many cases as they can into hospitals for study purposes

And where do you get this information? They have not. If you are not having difficulty breathing, you are kept out of hospitals for more serious cases.

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20 hours ago, dorydude said:

Oh, cheap shots now?

Yes , I made a tiny typo.

FYI, I am retired and very cashed up. I am in a position to do extremely well if this nonsense continues, however I kind of liked the old world. I just had to cancel a 2 month holiday in Europe. On top of frequent international trips, I also miss restaurants, dinner parties and ,of course, racing on the harbour.

 

 

FYI you can be anything you want to be on the internet. Just for shits an giggles let’s call you out on your bullshit. What kind of boat do you own that you race on the harbour  Thirstin Howl the 3rd?

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20 hours ago, dorydude said:

Depends how you slant the statistics.

 

Italy is not differentiating between people who die BECAUSE of Covid-19 and those who die WITH it. Huge difference as most of the dead were very old or already terminally ill. I assume other places are doing the same.

 

Remember the seasonal flu kills and fucks up a lot of people every year. In the US, 80,000 died in the 2017/2018 season.

 

 

By your logic if someone has a heart attack while driving and has a car accident they died in a car accident ‘with’ heart disease. I am increasing forming the opinion that you are spending so much time on here because you mother couldn’t be fucked home schooling you. 

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On 3/28/2020 at 12:56 PM, jack_sparrow said:

The right hand column is the body bag count after treatment, it is not a fatality risk factor before treatment moron.

You obviously haven't a fucking clue about the general and ICU/ventilator bed count in Australia, the expected number requiring hospitalisation and ICU ratio. Work that out and you might shut the fuck up, but I somehow doubt that.

Come on jack - Thirstin has the inside mail - remember he is good fiends with a Doctor who runs a hospital. We should listen to him - he told us he so fabulously wealthy he goes on overseas trips. Can you believe it? Overseas! Wow. Despite the fact that he is making a killing out of this shitshow (selling hoarded toilet paper on gumtree maybe) he wants it to end. Hell he is even offering up his 96 year old mother as one of the 144 000 people he is willing to sacrifice so he can start going back to restaurants. 

In  reality I think he is just pissed off because the government doubled his dole but they closed his local rub n tug shop. That money is burning a hole in his pocket and he has watched every shemale video on pornhub twice.

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10 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Now this is where the repeating of "facts" with no qualifications is just plain alarmist,

Shame on you.

Early days.

They have been stuffing as many cases as they can into hospitals for study purposes.

Building the knowledge base.

I guess you feel like your tone deaf hero that you are ready to face the virus and so the government should just ‘Bring it on’.

4C767F34-FC3E-4816-A036-E37403CE8F59.jpeg

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^^^^^^^^ Ogh fuck...is that moron for real.

Bring it on ...body bags being put out in the street, millions out of work but my boat now isolated so hopefully she will live through it.

He should be taken out and fuckin shot.

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1 hour ago, LB 15 said:

By your logic if someone has a heart attack while driving and has a car accident they died in a car accident ‘with’ heart disease. I am increasing forming the opinion that you are spending so much time on here because you mother couldn’t be fucked home schooling you. 

If they die of a heart attack before they crash, they will still count as a road accident statistic.

 

If you spent less time dishing out schoolyard grade insults and actually did some research, perhaps you would not come across as so stupd.

You seem don't believe me...how about the BBC?

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52006988

This whole shitstorm is powered by hysteria, not figures. The infection rate is unknown, therefore the death rates we have been given are BS.

We are destroying economies and people's livelihoods on fucking ESTIMATES based on  incomplete and unverified data.

The seasonal flu has never been monitored this closely, so we have nothing to compare this with. What we do know is that the seasonal flu kills between 600,000 and 1,000,000 people a year as a matter of course. It takes young, old , healthy and terminally ill....and always has.

What I am seeing in the MSM makes it look like nobody knew that people died of the flu prior to February this year. Headlines such as "Healthy 35 year old dies of Covid-19".

IT HAPPENS EVERY YEAR.

 

 

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1 hour ago, dorydude said:

 

If you spent less time dishing out schoolyard grade insults ............... would not come across as so stupd.

 

 

 

Little Boy has a history of this alledgedly.

Even in the real world.

Gets him in a bit of strife , alledgedly.

BWAHAHAHAHA

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58 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

^^^^^^^^ Ogh fuck...is that moron for real.

Bring it on ...body bags being put out in the street, millions out of work but my boat now isolated so hopefully she will live through it.

He should be taken out and fuckin shot.

you need to get out of your bunker, jack

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53 minutes ago, dorydude said:

If they die of a heart attack before they crash, they will still count as a road accident statistic.

 

If you spent less time dishing out schoolyard grade insults and actually did some research, perhaps you would not come across as so stupd.

You seem don't believe me...how about the BBC?

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52006988

This whole shitstorm is powered by hysteria, not figures. The infection rate is unknown, therefore the death rates we have been given are BS.

We are destroying economies and people's livelihoods on fucking ESTIMATES based on  incomplete and unverified data.

The seasonal flu has never been monitored this closely, so we have nothing to compare this with. What we do know is that the seasonal flu kills between 600,000 and 1,000,000 people a year as a matter of course. It takes young, old , healthy and terminally ill....and always has.

What I am seeing in the MSM makes it look like nobody knew that people died of the flu prior to February this year. Headlines such as "Healthy 35 year old dies of Covid-19".

IT HAPPENS EVERY YEAR.

 

 

Hmmm...

There is no known vaccine. 

It's a virus, so antibiotics are useless. 

It is highly contagious in its incubation period. when you don't know people are sick. 

Ergo, it's pretty different to the flu. 

 

On a happier note, I've just finished testing CCTV cameras with some new thermal detection capabilty retweaked for fever detection. It works surprisingly well. The algortihms firstly identify a persons body mass then focus on the head, then does the temperature sensing before determining a result. 

This way you can be walking with a cup of hot coffee and not trigger as a false detection. Conversely, if you walk through the detection zone after a run you'll trigger a detection as your body temp is elevated above 37.3 degrees, so defining the processes when you get a detection is what we are working on at the moment. .  

It does have limitations, we can only scan accurately a max of 60 persons per minute and you have a maximum distance from camera to subject of 5mtrs, so you can't use one camera in say an airport foyer. 

The cheaper versions are standalone handheld units, these differ from a wired system as it takes a good few seconds per person and needs a human holding it. It is still good for a 1.5mtr distance separation which is much better than the older hand held thermometer systems which needed to be almost pressed against your skin. All of them are accurate to within 0.5 degrees C , and for serious installations you use a black body sensor which improves the detection to 0.3 degrees C. 

I've ordered both tripod systems and handhelds, so if you're local and want a scan of family and friends lemme know, happy to swing past. Lead time is still 2 weeks away, then I'm all set to go. 

Stay safe you lot, Anarchy wouldn't be the same without all of you, regardless of our PoV.

 

 

     

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19 minutes ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Little Boy has a history of this alledgedly.

Even in the real world.

Gets him in a bit of strife , alledgedly.

BWAHAHAHAHA

Any word from your boss? Are you ready to ‘bring on’ the covid19 virus as well? 

Since you claim to be in Moreton bay- I am in horseshoe bay if you wish to make good on your threat to me. ‘Bring it on’ cupcake. Until then you stay safe at home in Wellington- your abrasive personality and complete lack of friends is a last working in your favour. And be nice to your mother.

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51 minutes ago, dorydude said:

If they die of a heart attack before they crash, they will still count as a road accident statistic.

 

If you spent less time dishing out schoolyard grade insults and actually did some research, perhaps you would not come across as so stupd.

You seem don't believe me...how about the BBC?

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52006988

This whole shitstorm is powered by hysteria, not figures. The infection rate is unknown, therefore the death rates we have been given are BS.

We are destroying economies and people's livelihoods on fucking ESTIMATES based on  incomplete and unverified data.

The seasonal flu has never been monitored this closely, so we have nothing to compare this with. What we do know is that the seasonal flu kills between 600,000 and 1,000,000 people a year as a matter of course. It takes young, old , healthy and terminally ill....and always has.

What I am seeing in the MSM makes it look like nobody knew that people died of the flu prior to February this year. Headlines such as "Healthy 35 year old dies of Covid-19".

IT HAPPENS EVERY YEAR.

 

 

So nearly a 1000 people die of the flu in Italy every day do they? Does someone die of the flu every 10 mins in New York normally do they? Now to give your self some credibility on all your claims - let’s start with your doctor ‘fiend.’ The one who ‘runs a hospital’. What hospital is would that be?

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1 hour ago, dorydude said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52006988

This whole shitstorm is powered by hysteria, not figures. The infection rate is unknown, therefore the death rates we have been given are BS.

We are destroying economies and people's livelihoods on fucking ESTIMATES based on  incomplete and unverified data.

Incomplete data with something new is what it is. I have yet to see an hysterical epidemiologist or someone empowered to make decisions being hysterical. Maybe you can post a vid of one. 

So you say because data is incomplete, ignore responses elsewhere that have had a very positive effect keeping demand in line with health care capacity, go for a pissant response, kill as many as possible and generate good data.

You really have it wired.

PS. Here is some real data. Go to the two right hand columns of cases and death rates per capita and compare Aust to others. Really glad you are not in charge.

image.thumb.png.b068f0889a6478c0811119070934053d.png

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If, perish the thought, things do get as bad as many medical experts are suggesting it will, I wonder how those more worried about their portfolios than the body count are going to feel about some of their egregious butt-hurt whining going on at this early stage? Lord knows I hope things don't go to shit, but crossing your fingers ain't gonna cut the mustard

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+1.

I don't really understand what is so difficult to get your head around. 

It's a highly contagious virus with no known cure. Our only defense atm is social distancing and practicing good hygiene discipline. That's it.

The economy is going to take a beating, absolutely, but there is no alternative. This thing will fuck you six ways from Sunday if we don't stop it. 

Anybody that understands compounding interest should understand this. 

Regards the economy, the money is still there, its just stopped circulating. To fit that paradigm we need to remove the reliance for that money to circulate till this blows over. Hence mortgage and rent payments need to be in a moratorium, as does the need for basic essentials. 

How the fuck we actually grow the balls to do that globally I have no idea. It's pretty simple in its principle, until you factor in the human frailties. Bugger. 

     

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6 minutes ago, shaggybaxter said:

+1.

I don't really understand what is so difficult to get your head around. 

It's a highly contagious virus with no known cure. Our only defense atm is social distancing and practicing good hygiene discipline. That's it.

The economy is going to take a beating, absolutely, but there is no alternative. This thing will fuck you six ways from Sunday if we don't stop it. 

Anybody that understands compounding interest should understand this. 

Regards the economy, the money is still there, its just stopped circulating. To fit that paradigm we need to remove the reliance for that money to circulate till this blows over. Hence mortgage and rent payments need to be in a moratorium, as does the need for basic essentials. 

How the fuck we actually grow the balls to do that globally I have no idea. It's pretty simple in it's principle, until you factor in the human frailties. Bugger. 

     

Seasonal flu is a highly contagious virus with no known cure.

I agree that our only defense  is social distancing and practicing good hygiene discipline. PLUS protecting at risk groups ho are clearly identifiable.

Destroying the economy is stupid.

 

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2 hours ago, LB 15 said:

Any word from your boss? Are you ready to ‘bring on’ the covid19 virus as well? 

Since you claim to be in Moreton bay- I am in horseshoe bay if you wish to make good on your threat to me. ‘Bring it on’ cupcake. Until then you stay safe at home in Wellington- your abrasive personality and complete lack of friends is a last working in your favour. And be nice to your mother.

Thank you for your contribution.

You appear to have your panties all WADDED UP.

I thought trolling you would be a challenge, with your abusive, trolling, bullying personality.

Sadly I am frankly dissapointed .

You are making this too easy.

Toughen up precious pussycat.

 

PS.

I notice you are widening your identification net. Still a long way to go , however.

AND WTF has WELLINGTON got to do with it.

Is that where the UBER driver lives?

Wellington is a town in inland New South Wales, Australia, located at the junction of the Macquarie and Bell Rivers.

 

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19 minutes ago, dorydude said:

Seasonal flu is a highly contagious virus with no known cure.

I agree that our only defense  is social distancing and practicing good hygiene discipline. PLUS protecting at risk groups ho are clearly identifiable.

Destroying the economy is stupid.

  

That's not quite right Dory. Flu shots exist for the flu, some anitviral prescriptions are available for the flu, and we have some herd immunity.

The coronavirus has none of those options, yet.

The economy will tank far worse than the current projections if this gets legs. The US economy is a $21 trillion dollar behemoth, a 3month period of shutdown amounts to $5 trillion dollars. That's beyond comprehension, until you factor into this the impact of do-nothing and it keeps re-occurring over the next 12 months. 

The difference is right now. If we, as in all of us right now,  get a chance to get on top of it and stop it spreading, normality is possible. And I'm the most dumbest, naiive, trusting, non pessimistic type you could meet, I just see the logic behind the data.

  

    

 

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3 minutes ago, dorydude said:

 

Destroying the economy is stupid.

 

Either way the economy is going to be destroyed.

 

Since you like the way Sweden is miss-managing the current situation, why not move there?

In Sweden more than half the households have only one person living in them and not surprisingly then, there are large numbers of singles in all age ranges. It's heading into summer so the outside bars are filling up with Swedish women of all ages looking for a shag. Just don't forget condoms as Sweden has a high rate of chlamydia.

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2 minutes ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Thank you for your contribution.

You appear to have your panties all WADDED UP.

I thought trolling you would be a challenge, with your abusive, trolling, bullying personality.

Sadly I am frankly dissapointed .

You are making this to easy.

Toughen up precious pussycat.

 

PS.

I notice you are widening your identification net. Still a long way to go , however.

AND WTF has WELLINGTON got to do with it.

Is that where the UBER driver lives?

Wellington is a town in inland New South Wales, Australia, located at the junction of the Macquarie and Bell Rivers.

 

I wish the whiting here would bite as well. Just gone low tide so I might try the bank near south west risks. I might change my bait. Do you like Yabbies? They are freshly pumped this morning. Any thoughts on your boss’s post or are you not allowed to comment?

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1 hour ago, shaggybaxter said:

On a happier note, I've just finished testing CCTV cameras with some new thermal detection capabilty retweaked for fever detection. It works surprisingly well. The algortihms firstly identify a persons body mass then focus on the head, then does the temperature sensing before determining a result.      

I do not understand why this hasn't been rolled out to all airports - its available and working.

I was picked up by one in Taiwan during some previous epidemic (SARS, bird flu?)

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11 minutes ago, duncan (the other one) said:

I do not understand why this hasn't been rolled out to all airports - its available and working.

I was picked up by one in Taiwan during the SARS epidemic.

Me too Duncan. If I look at State and local government historically, they'll get around to it when the situation gets really dire. They're all in a bit of a mess presently, we tend to forget governments are still humans without superpowers just like us trying to work out a strategy.

In the interim, I've reached out to the local colleges and schools to supply and set up the the kit free of charge, they're still caretaking kids whose parents still have to work.

I hope like fuck they all don't take up the offer, I'll go broke :blink:.  

Edit: or should that read I'll go broke more quickly! Who knows where this ends, but fuck it, if it does we'll go down swinging.

 

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2 minutes ago, shaggybaxter said:

Me too Duncan. If I look at State and local government historically, they'll get around to it when the situation gets really dire. They're all in a bit of a mess presently, we tend to forget governments are still humans without superpowers just like us trying to work out a strategy.

In the interim, I've reached out to the local colleges and schools to supply and set up the the kit free of charge, they're still caretaking kids whose parents still have to work.

I hope like fuck they all don't take up the offer, I'll go broke :blink:.  

Edit: or should that reead I'll go broke more quickly! Who knows where this ends, but fuck it, if it does we'll go down swinging.

 

start a go fund me campaign.  I bet you'd raise all the money you need.

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Aus Governments are incapable of thinking beyond the next election and certainly will not make a decision today that does not help them win the next election.

Hopefully this current situation will highlight to the politicians that maybe we do need to support our manufacturing industries so we have the capacity to step up for the next crisis. 

  • Like 2

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2 hours ago, LB 15 said:

I wish the whiting here would bite as well. Just gone low tide so I might try the bank near south west risks. I might change my bait. Do you like Yabbies? They are freshly pumped this morning. Any thoughts on your boss’s post or are you not allowed to comment?

We haven't resorted to dragging out the fishing lines yet. Most of the fish we see caught around here would rate as bait in our neck of the woods.

We don't eat bait.

Each to their own I guess.

Now as for My Boss's Post . "SHE" doesn't have a POST;), but feel free to comment on your Boss's POST , We are petty accepting around here and pretty bored with this isolation caper.

PS , decided to google the age demographic of the 17 Australian Corona Virus deaths.

It appears most if not all are OLDER or have an existing medical condition (most 75 to 95 apparently)

see....https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-covid19-cases-in-nsw-victoria-queensland-sa-wa-tasmania-act-and-nt/news-story/e8c8797238bfc27d0bc25e7fa1903ae1

What information do you have?

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16 minutes ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

We haven't resorted to dragging out the fishing lines yet. Most of the fish we see caught around here would rate as bait in our neck of the woods.

We don't eat bait.

Each to their own I guess.

Now as for My Boss's Post . "SHE" doesn't have a POST;), but feel free to comment on your Boss's POST , We are petty accepting around here and pretty bored with this isolation caper.

PS , decided to google the age demographic of the 17 Australian Corona Virus deaths.

It appears most if not all are OLDER or have an existing medical condition (most 75 to 95 apparently)

see....https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-covid19-cases-in-nsw-victoria-queensland-sa-wa-tasmania-act-and-nt/news-story/e8c8797238bfc27d0bc25e7fa1903ae1

What information do you have?

The information that my grandfather gave me. Don’t touch the bait or hook- the whiting can smell it. Only live bait and be quiet- they don’t like noise either. Pity he and my parents have passed away. It would have been much better for all if I could have sacrificed them now to save the economy. In the meantime learn to fish you stupid cunt and I hope you get a hook in your eyeball. Or your other small balls. Either will be fine.

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3 hours ago, dorydude said:

The seasonal flu has never been monitored this closely, so we have nothing to compare this with. 

Flue is monitored very closely, enormous amount of data.

19 hours ago, dorydude said:

The seasonal flu kills young, healthy adults every fucking year and you want to pretend it doesn't?

Actually latest according to ABS Causes of Death Australia 1,676 females and 1,426 males or 3,102 to be precise. So 12 flu and influenza deaths per 100,000 population.

America by comparison well you say this.

On 3/29/2020 at 8:03 AM, dorydude said:

Remember the seasonal flu kills and fucks up a lot of people every year. In the US, 80,000 died in the 2017/2018 season.

Well actually you are very wrong, 34,200 deaths to be precise according to US Centres for Disease and Control Prevention So 10 flu deaths per 100,000 population.

Remember when you cited this about 510,000 deaths in the UK and I pointed out that was by TAKING NO ACTION.

19 hours ago, dorydude said:

Similarly, the Poms have backed down on their "510,000 dead"  prediction

So pointing you in the right direction to where that estimate came from being from the UK Governments scientific advice buried here SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies - Covid-19 

19 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

...the depository of scientific advise the UK are using here.  SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies - Covid-19 

Well luck would have it the same model was done for the US with a total of 2,200,000 deaths if no action was taken or 665 deaths per 100,000 population

blog_imperial_college_worst_case.thumb.jpg.f8d05e38b984fd772ba7e291930ad857.jpg

So these epidemiologists and experts say this thing will cause up to 65 times more  deaths than the flu if no action taken. 

For Australia that is up to 200,000 body bags. 

Yet Dory you say upthread "You are losing sight of the fact that this is just a bad flu ...."

So Dory you think this is just a bad flu plus also have interesting theories about how cause of death should be recognised. Mmmmmm.

5 hours ago, LB 15 said:

By your logic if someone has a heart attack while driving and has a car accident they died in a car accident ‘with’ heart disease. I am increasing forming the opinion that you are spending so much time on here because you mother couldn’t be fucked home schooling you. 

 

3 hours ago, dorydude said:

If they die of a heart attack before they crash, they will still count as a road accident statistic.

Dory if you go to those ABS stats on cause of deaths in Australia you will see 2,320 males died from self harm compared to only 1,436 from the flu.

So how about to put both your theories to the test. You zip down to the closest hospital find a coronavirus patient and hang out for a while. Hold his hand and just tell him; "mate it's just a bad case of the flu, toughen up you sook..more blokes top themselves than this thing,..you will be sweet," even better.

Then zip home to isolate and put a sign around your neck saying you took your own life so no one is confused.

Let us know when you're all set up.

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32 minutes ago, LB 15 said:

The information that my grandfather gave me. Don’t touch the bait or hook- the whiting can smell it. Only live bait 

Not to dis your grandfather's info but down this neck of the woods, both Sand Whiting (long time locals) and King George Whiting (relatively recent imports from further north) don't seem that fussy... you can touch the hook and bait without making much difference. They bite well on raw prawn (from the supermarket is generally cheaper than from a bait store).

It shits me that the relatively recent immigrants already have a pretty substantial minimum size limit... you have to throw back half a bucket of 330 mm fish to get 2 or 3 at 350 mm, especially since there is no such restrictions on the Sand Whiting 

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14 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Flue is monitored very closely, enormous amount of data.

Actually latest according to ABS Causes of Death Australia 1,676 females and 1,426 males or 3,102 to be precise. So 12 flu and influenza deaths per 100,000 population.

America by comparison well you say this.

Well actually you are wrong 34,200 deaths to be precise according to US Centres for Disease and Control Prevention So 10 flu deaths per 100,000 population.

Remember when you cited this about 510,000 in the UK and I pointed out that was by TAKING NO ACTION.

So pointing you in the right direction to where that estimate came from being from the UK Governments scientific advice buried here SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies - Covid-19 

Well luck would have it the same model was done for the US with a total of 2,200,000 deaths if no action was taken or 665 deaths per 100,000 population

blog_imperial_college_worst_case.thumb.jpg.f8d05e38b984fd772ba7e291930ad857.jpg

So these epidemiologists and experts say this thing will cause up to 65 times more  deaths than the flu if no action taken. 

For Australia that is up to 200,000 body bags. 

Yet Dory you say upthread "You are losing sight of the fact that this is just a bad flu ...."

So Dory you think this is just a bad flu plus also have interesting theories about how cause of death should be recognised. Mmmmmm.

 

Dory if you go to those ABS stats on cause of deaths in Australia you will see 2,320 males died from self harm compared to only 1,436 from the flu.

So how about to put both your theories to the test. You zip down to the closest hospital find a coronavirus patient and hang out for a while. Hold his hand and just tell him "it's just a bad case of the flu" even better.

Then zip home to isolate and put a sign around your neck saying you took your own life so no one is confused.

Let us know when you're all set up.

You are quite hysterical. Get someone to bang you on the head.

Fact: We are told that this particular corona virus is very contagious and spreads quickly though populations....right?

If that is correct , then we will see infections and deaths increase quickly...right?

Then it will run out of steam pretty quickly.

Italian studies have shown that the current infection rates figures may be underestimated by a factor as high as 34x. That means there is a whole shitload more people infected than the figures show and we will reach peak infection rates pretty damn soon.

 

Officially there are 720,000 known infections worldwide. There is every chance that the real figure is well over 20 million.

 

BTW, estimated US deaths are now 100,000 - 200,000. That is well under 1%  even at worst case.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, dorydude said:

Fact: We are told that this particular corona virus is very contagious and spreads quickly though populations....right?

Correct.

1 hour ago, dorydude said:

If that is correct , then we will see infections and deaths increase quickly...right?

Infections increases quickly at high rate yes but without suppression. Severity of cases requiring hospitalisation is a low rate. Deaths depends entirely on suppression measures taken to reduce the spread/case numbers and therefore the number of severe cases requiring hospitalisation. Death count will then depend entirely on case demand and hospitalisation capacity and more importantly ICU capacity.

1 hour ago, dorydude said:

Then it will run out of steam pretty quickly.

Australian peak with suppression measures is June. No suppression peak of first wave would be earlier. Second wave lower than the first.

1 hour ago, dorydude said:

Italian studies have shown that the current infection rates figures may be underestimated by a factor as high as 34x.That means there is a whole shitload more  people infected than the figures show and we will reach  peak infection rates pretty damn soon.

Really you just said infection rates were unknown and bullshit.

4 hours ago, dorydude said:

The infection rate is unknown, therefore the death rates we have been given are BS.

Putting that aside that Italian claim is meaningless without more information and a cite. Current Italian infection rate is with extreme suppression measures but slow start.

Latest Italian data is used to feed latest models showing demand on hospitalisation requiring acute care after varying levels of suppression which determines death rate. Latest Italian data has seen that ICU rate double to 30%.

You still fail to understand that the acute care demand capacity issue and deliberately don't want to because it blows up your entire whack job narrative.

Maybe this will help you, though I very much doubt it.

Flatten_the_curve1.gif.7c6afdabe4681600759ca630e52cd13e.gif

1 hour ago, dorydude said:

Officially there are 720,000 known infections worldwide. There is every chance that the real figure is well over 20 million.

BTW, estimated US deaths are now 100,000 - 200,000. That is well under 1%  even at worst case.

So up to 8,000 to 16,000 Australian body bags. That is nearly 3 to 5 times the deaths caused by the flu. What happened to your "You are losing sight of the fact that this is just a bad flu ...."

Meaningless without factoring in suppression measures and meaningless at this point as you said only today that infection rates unknown and death rates are bullshit.

4 hours ago, dorydude said:

The infection rate is unknown, therefore the death rates we have been given are BS.

Dory probably time you shut the fuck up by your own advice and admissions don't you think.

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3 hours ago, LB 15 said:

 and I hope you get a hook in your eyeball. 

Jeeeeesus LB you really are a  NASTY PIECE OF WORK.

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4 minutes ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Jeeeeesus LB you really are a  NASTY PIECE OF WORK.

LB nasty is two hooks, the other in your dick.

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8 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Correct.

Infections increases quickly at high rate yes but without suppression. Severity of cases is a low rate. Deaths depends entirely on suppression measures taken to reduce the spread/case numbers and therefore the number of severe cases requiring hospitalisation. Death count will then depend entirely on case demand and hospitalisation capacity and more importantly ICU capacity.

Australian peak with suppression measures is June. No suppression peak of first wave would be earlier. Second wave lower than the first.

Really you just said infection rates were unknown and bullshit.

Putting that aside that Italian claim is meaningless without more information and a cite. Current Italian infection rate is with extreme suppression measures but slow start.

Latest Italian data is used to feed latest models showing demand on hospitalisation requiring acute care which determines death rate.

You still fail to understand that the acute care demand capacity issue and deliberately don't want to because it blows up your entire whack job narrative.

So up to 8,000 to 16,000 Australians. That is nearly 3 to 5 times the deaths caused by the flu. What happened to your "You are losing sight of the fact that this is just a bad flu ...."

Meaningless without factoring in suppression measures and meaningless at this point as you said only today that death rates are bullshit.

Dory probably time you shut the fuck up by your own advice and admissions don't you think.

So, you delight in spreading the "worst case " figures? Fine, but keep them to yourself.

The figures we are being given are clearly BS , and there is no way you can say otherwise. If countries are low on test kits, they will only test people who are showing strong symptoms or have a provable high risk. We are seeing stories that back this up in the media. People with mild symptoms are not tested and are being told to go home and self isolate.

Unless the whole population is tested then the figures are meaningless.

You seem to have forgotten that I have agreed with suppression / isolation measures and I am practicing them myself as  I am in a moderate risk group.

The Australian cases were not rising exponentially as we were promised before the current round of restrictions. There is still no need to trash the economy.

As you have a bad memory , I will repeat that these overreactions from the government that I totally disagree with will be financially beneficial to me as I have a strong cash position and sold my boat for a good price a couple of months ago.

 

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

LB nasty is two hooks, the other in your dick.

How is LB putting a hook in his Dick going to affect me?

Your  thought processes seem a little weird

 Come on Jacko, you haven't got the time to devote to me.

Keep dredging up the worst case scenario and frightening the bejesus out of everyone.

Theres not a minute to waste.

I must admit, I admire your stamina.

Pounding that keyboard the way  you are has got to be taking its toll.

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1 minute ago, dorydude said:

So, you delight in spreading the "worst case " figures? Fine, but keep them to yourself.

You spread worst case not saying or not knowing they weren't worse case and had to be corrected. 

20 hours ago, dorydude said:

Similarly, the Poms have backed down on their "510,000 dead"  prediction

 

20 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

There was no 510,000 dead in play in the UK.That was Do Nothing or if No Action Was Taken.

Couldn't be fucked reading the rest of your drivel. 

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2 minutes ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Keep dredging up the worst case scenario and frightening the bejesus out of everyone.

Read above you.

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3 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

Since you like the way Sweden is miss-managing the current situation, why not move there?

Sweden mismanaging? Around half UK death rate per capita and quarter Netherlands. Their strict self responsibility approach for both work and home seems to be working for them so far. Not sure that is easily transplanted elsewhere.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52076293

image.thumb.png.345259ab91c47ccee6b3781a1384bfb7.png

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Here's why you can't just lock everything down and hope the problem goes away... a careful balancing act between allowing the disease to get out and create herd immunity, vs. getting out of control.

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

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1 hour ago, duncan (the other one) said:

Here's why you can't just lock everything down and hope the problem goes away... a careful balancing act between allowing the disease to get out and create herd immunity, vs. getting out of control.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Dunc I assume you pulled that out of the UK Governments science advice depository I posted.

23 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

To back up what I say, you will find actual reports in the depository of scientific advise the UK are using here.  SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies - Covid-19 That is where the above 510K graph came from.

Maybe you need to read it closely but it is based on suppression utilising lockdown to accommodate acute care supply and natural immunisation (herd immunity) you mention. It is Imperial who modelled the 520k and 2.2m deaths for UK and US if no action was taken. Australia equates to around 150k if there is no suppression.

The scary graph is this one of hospital admissions requiring acute care or ICU.

EToXYRTWAAYNy8M.jpeg.f609461195bfcc2420eba28d17c7b361.jpeg

Note: The red line on the bottom is the UK's ICU capacity at 7 beds per 100,000 or around 4,600 beds

Peak ICU admissions with the suppression Australia is doing but no lock down demand is in the region of 20,000 ICU beds at peak. Average ICU stay is 10 days or bit more than twice severe flu of 4 days.

In terms of suppression and admissions if infection is reduced by 25 per cent to 10%, it would save about 190,000 ICU admissions. 

Now the bad news. Australia only has around 8.9 ICU beds per 100,000 people, compare New Zealand (5.1) and Italy (12.5). That's just over 2,200 beds almost half of these in NSW. So Australia is 90% short at the peak.

Hospitals can boost this by adding in portable ventilators. A doubling of acute care capacity in Australia is underway but obviously still not enough. Beds are not just beds but gear and trained critical care staff. Hence the lockdown.

This Imperial model started around 10 years ago and tweeked ever since. It is now got the most recent data incl that from Italy. It is being used by the Australian Government as well as the UK and US.

This is the bit Dory and many don't get.

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46 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Dunc I assume you pulled that out of the UK Governments science advice depository I posted.

Maybe you need to read it closely but it is based on suppression utilising lockdown to accommodate acute care supply and natural immunisation (herd immunity) you mention. It is Imperial who modelled the 520k and 2.2m deaths for UK and US if no action was taken. Australia equates to around 150k if there is no suppression.

The scary graph is this one of hospital admissions requiring acute care or ICU.

EToXYRTWAAYNy8M.jpeg.f609461195bfcc2420eba28d17c7b361.jpeg

Note: The red line on the bottom is the UK's ICU capacity at 7 beds per 100,000 or around 4,600 beds

Peak ICU admissions with the suppression Australia is doing but no lock down demand is in the region of 20,000 ICU beds at peak. Average ICU stay is 10 days or bit more than twice severe flu of 4 days.

In terms of suppression and admissions if infection is reduced by 25 per cent to 10%, it would save about 190,000 ICU admissions. 

Now the bad news. Australia only has around 8.9 ICU beds per 100,000 people, compare New Zealand (5.1) and Italy (12.5). That's just over 2,200 beds almost half of these in NSW. So Australia is 90% short at the peak.

Hospitals can boost this by adding in portable ventilators. A doubling of acute care capacity in Australia is underway but obviously still not enough. Beds are not just beds but gear and trained critical care staff. Hence the lockdown.

This Imperial model started around 10 years ago and tweeked ever since. It is now got the most recent data incl that from Italy. It is being used by the Australian Government as well as the UK and US.

This is the bit Dory and many don't get.

I think the other thing we all forget is ICU beds tend to run at close to capacity all year anyway.  People aren't going to stop having strokes, heart attacks etc. although car accidents and similar might reduce for a while.

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Sweden mismanaging? Around half UK death rate per capita and quarter Netherlands. Their strict self responsibility approach for both work and home seems to be working for them so far. Not sure that is easily transplanted elsewhere.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52076293

image.thumb.png.345259ab91c47ccee6b3781a1384bfb7.png

Sweden and Aus have a similar number of infected but Sweden has 110 deaths and yet they don't even have half the population as us.

People are still going skiing and packing out restaurants.

Sweden will be under reporting the number of Covid-19 cases, not because they are hiding the figures, but in the typical head up their own arse approach to difficult matters, they are simply not testing people who simply show symptoms. What you don't know won't hurt you......  

http://theconversation.com/sweden-under-fire-for-relaxed-coronavirus-approach-heres-the-science-behind-it-134926 

As for strict self responsibility LOL

My wife's Swedish friend just had a 2 week holiday in Mexico. She flew back via Paris where she was out on the town sightseeing. Now she is back home in Sweden, no isolation what so ever.

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42 minutes ago, SCARECROW said:

I think the other thing we all forget is ICU beds tend to run at close to capacity all year anyway.  People aren't going to stop having strokes, heart attacks etc. although car accidents and similar might reduce for a while.

Slight drift..I'm looking at the some of the alternate solutions being re-purposed for quarantining coronavirus cases, and they make a hospital ICU bed look like a royal palace.

You really seriously do not want to end up here. 

  

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1 hour ago, The Dark Knight said:

Sweden and Aus have a similar number of infected but Sweden has 110 deaths and yet they don't even have half the population as us.

Per capita it 11 about same as Portugal versus Aust 0.6. Aust half Korea so a bit of an aberation. Swedens numbers compared many others are good.

You are not comparing apples with apples with cases and fatalities. Australia has 2nd highest testing rate in the world behind Korea so more positives with tests and more tracing equals more positives more cases but less deaths. Low test rates like Sweden same number of positives equals people further along the case chain undetected equals more deaths. That is why you see Australia fatality rate way down the bottom of the world pile but a case rate on world trend.

You nailed that aspect here, just didn't corellate to fatality rate.

1 hour ago, The Dark Knight said:

Sweden will be under reporting the number of Covid-19 cases, not because they are hiding the figures, but in the typical head up their own arse approach to difficult matters, they are simply not testing people who simply show symptoms. What you don't know won't hurt you......  

Sweden still have moratorium on large gatherings, universities closed etc but the big difference is no ban on entertainment venues etc. They also have lower average age than many countries hence their approach. See how long it lasts. My guess they will ramp up with entertainment venues the first target. They might be Vikings but they aren't bullet proof.

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1 hour ago, SCARECROW said:

I think the other thing we all forget is ICU beds tend to run at close to capacity all year anyway.  People aren't going to stop having strokes, heart attacks etc. although car accidents and similar might reduce for a while.

Aust like most countries sit around 90% occupancy. With elective surgery etc gone they say they can carve out another 30% pretty easily, but still sitting around half existing capacity available. Hence Govt is doing what it's doing but some like Dory pissed off, but not knowing why.

Maybe they should be shouting about this ICU demand/capacity factor to being behind their suppression strategy...maybe then accused of sensationalising things??

You mention car acidents. Hence in some places they have/looking to halve speed limits to further free up health care capacity.

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At least we dont have this fucking idiot running the country, sorry America your fucked, the Chinese are laughing and sitting back waiting to buy up every company that is fucked over by this

 

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19 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

You are not comparing apples with apples with cases and fatalities. Australia has 2nd highest testing rate in the world behind Korea so more positives with tests and more tracing equals more positives more cases but less deaths. Low test rates like Sweden same number of positives equals people further along the case chain undetected equals more deaths. That is why you see Australia fatality rate way down the bottom of the world pile but a case rate on world trend.

The deaths in the table you posted are per million population, so not directly related or correlated to number of tests.

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8 minutes ago, RobG said:

The deaths in the table you posted are per million population, so not directly related or correlated to number of tests.

Putting aside I'm relying upon test data available elsewhere.

Deaths aren't test related as you say but column beside on that Table showing Total Cases per capita is. They are confirmed cases and only way you get a confirmed case is with a test. 

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5 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Keep dredging up the worst case scenario and frightening the bejesus out of everyone.

 

6 hours ago, dorydude said:

BTW, estimated US deaths are now 100,000 - 200,000. That is well under 1%  even at worst case.

1 hour ago, Bill E Goat said:

At least we dont have this fucking idiot running the country, sorry America your fucked, 

Octopus you mentioned worst case scenario being that 2.2 million US deaths if no action taken and or Dory's US 100K to 200K estimate - "That is well under 1%  even at worst case"... "even".. ouch.

Bill you brought up Orangeman.

This probably takes the cake. Those quoted figures are real estimates the US Administration have had in front of them and Trump is now milking them. (2nd Vid, 1st one is an entertainment bonus I can't detach)

So if you are pissed at the ScoMo, think about if this fucking cracker was in charge.

- Spent most of January and all of February in denial the virus even existed.

- Late February said there were only 15 coronavirus cases in the US and in a few days it would be zero and that will prove he is doing a good job.

- Today he repeatedly brings up openly for the first time that up to 2.2 million Americans would die if no measures were taken and it is now 100 - 200K deaths provided the virus is suppressed, but suppression which he has resisted up until now. You can't make this shit up.

- But the banger is him saying that if only 100,000 - 200,000 people die in the United States that proves he is doing a good job.

- Compare that to US war deaths. He just announced in advance and with  barely a blink that there could be deaths by summer equivalent to more than a handfull of Vietnams or Koreas. 

- What if Morrison got on the tele tonight and said he has just ordered 8K - 16K body bags?

WTF..

EUUdwrWXgAA63iy.jpeg

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Per capita it 11 about same as Portugal versus Aust 0.6. Aust half Korea so a bit of an aberation. Swedens numbers compared many others are good.

You are not comparing apples with apples with cases and fatalities. Australia has 2nd highest testing rate in the world behind Korea so more positives with tests and more tracing equals more positives more cases but less deaths. Low test rates like Sweden same number of positives equals people further along the case chain undetected equals more deaths. That is why you see Australia fatality rate way down the bottom of the world pile but a case rate on world trend.

You nailed that aspect here, just didn't corellate to fatality rate.

Sweden still have moratorium on large gatherings, universities closed etc but the big difference is no ban on entertainment venues etc. They also have lower average age than many countries hence their approach. See how long it lasts. My guess they will ramp up with entertainment venues the first target. They might be Vikings but they aren't bullet proof.

Aus had it's first reported Covid-19 case on January 25, Sweden February 4th. First Death Aus, March 1st; Sweden March 11th.

The simple reality is that whilst Sweden was late to the COVID-19 game, their inaction, blind ignorance or secret herd immunity approach has meant that the number of confirmed cases quickly caught up to Aus, untested cases is probably way beyond Aus and their death rate is in the top 10 per capita.

 

But at least they can still holiday in Sweden, go out drinking and eating with friends, but can only see bands or dance in smaller venues. 

 

It's like the immigration crisis all over again, but with deadly consequences. 

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5 minutes ago, The Dark Knight said:

The simple reality is that whilst Sweden was late to the COVID-19 game, their inaction, blind ignorance or secret herd immunity approach has meant that the number of confirmed cases quickly caught up to Aus, untested cases is probably way beyond Aus and their death rate is in the top 10 per capita.

Where would you rather be. The US or Sweden???

EURyLczWkAAgwKf.png

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Jacko, please explain why the CDC (centres for disease control) states....

 Most people with COVID-19 have mild illness and are able to recover at home without medical care.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/steps-when-sick.html

 

I get the impression from your posts we are all F####D

WTF is going on??

Just ask'n

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Just now, MRS OCTOPUS said:

WTF is going on??

I'll tell you when we're all about to die of suffocation.

 

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1 hour ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Jacko, please explain why the CDC (centres for disease control) states....

 Most people with COVID-19 have mild illness and are able to recover at home without medical care.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/steps-when-sick.html

I get the impression from your posts we are all F####D

WTF is going on??

Just ask'n

Spot on, some won't even know they are a carrier due to low "severity" rate. But it has a high "transmission" rate. It is the "small" severity rate by "ratio" but 'high' in "number" of cases it can produce and who need to go to hospital which is the drama. If they can't get treated they are fucked. 

"Severity" rate is fixed by Mr Virus, so the only thing controlable to bring the number of severe cases requiring hospitalisation down is to mitigate/suppress the transmission rate.  

With no vaccine the only way that can be done is by first by "mitigation" (washing hands/isolating those at risk etc) or failing that next stage up is called "suppression." This is social-distancing, lock down non-essential businesses with high transmission risk etc to reduce cases or "demand" on health system .

The health care "capacity" will dictate the quantum of "suppression" required. This is what freaks Government's out.

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Where would you rather be. The US or Sweden???

EURyLczWkAAgwKf.png

Which STD would you rather catch Gonorrhoea or chlamydia

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9 minutes ago, The Dark Knight said:

Which STD would you rather catch Gonorrhoea or chlamydia

I have been religiously hand washing as per national directive so OK there.

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

The health care "capacity" will dictate the quantum of "suppression" required. This is what freaks Government's out.

Thanks Jack,

So my next question is , If as the CDC states ( and I see no argument against this statement)  Most people with COVID-19 have mild illness and are able to recover at home without medical care.

 

Why have governments gone down the Path of isolating the whole community and not just the elderly and susceptible? 

Does it make sense to isolate the elderly grandparents with their snotty nosed school aged Grandchildren , for instance, or expose the elderly to the toiletries aisle in Coles when they go shopping.

From the Age demographic for C-19 related  deaths in Australia, even with a fully functioning  intensive care, as we currently have,  the elderly are F####d.

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Why keep talking about CDC figures when "most" news items say they dropped the ball?

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1 hour ago, Jethrow said:

Why keep talking about CDC figures when "most" news items say they dropped the ball?

Oh, doesn't fit your narrative ?

What about ... Symptoms of COVID-19 | Coronavirus in Australia | health.gov.au‎

 Most people (about 80%) recover from the disease without needing special treatment.

Says pretty much the same.

 

Health. Gov.au has this to say about Flu.....     Sounds pretty bad.

The flu can affect people of all ages.

People at highest risk of being hospitalised with flu are:

  • babies
  • people more than 65 years old
  • Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people
  • pregnant women
  • people with long-term medical conditions
  • people who have weakened immune systems
  • people who are obese
  • people who smoke
  • people who haven’t been vaccinated against the flu.

Long-term medical conditions that can lead to you having a serious case of the flu include:

  • heart disease
  • Down syndrome
  • lung disease
  • conditions of the nervous system (such as multiple sclerosis)
  • liver disease
  • kidney disease
  • diabetes
  • blood diseases
  • metabolic disorders.

 

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11 hours ago, Weyalan said:

Not to dis your grandfather's info but down this neck of the woods, both Sand Whiting (long time locals) and King George Whiting (relatively recent imports from further north) don't seem that fussy... you can touch the hook and bait without making much difference. They bite well on raw prawn (from the supermarket is generally cheaper than from a bait store).

It shits me that the relatively recent immigrants already have a pretty substantial minimum size limit... you have to throw back half a bucket of 330 mm fish to get 2 or 3 at 350 mm, especially since there is no such restrictions on the Sand Whiting 

I meant to say don’t touch the bait with sunscreen on your hands. It is sandies we get up here. Sometimes the hit the hook like an octopus and some times they are as cunning as a shit house rat. My grandfather used to stake net them back in the 60’s. In fact I recall him telling me stories about the Spanish flu as well- I wish I hade listened more. You had to be very quiet or you weren’t asked back.

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