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19 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Putting aside I'm relying upon test data available elsewhere.

Deaths aren't test related as you say but column beside on that Table showing Total Cases per capita is. They are confirmed cases and only way you get a confirmed case is with a test. 

Sure, but in places like Australia where testing is mostly for overseas travellers with symptoms and contacts of positives (i.e. high probability of being positive), only a relatively small number of positives have been found amongst +200,000 tests. There is a high proportion of asymptomatic positives (over 50% from the much studied Diamond Princes), and the majority of symptomatic cases are mild. Even 71 year old Prince Charles got by with barely a sniffle.

I fully agree with the measures currently being taken, and anyone who identifies as high risk should definitely quarantine themselves. I have family and friends who are in voluntary quarantine (returned from overseas), self–quarantine (identifies as high risk) and a positive in self isolation (caught overseas).  However, the reality is that at the moment in Australia the chances of catching the disease are still relatively low and chances are that if you do and are not a high risk, it won't be any worse than a bad cold. Of course there will still be tragic deaths of low risk people, but that happens all the time with other diseases, accidents and plain bad shit (like young kids brutally murdered by an estranged parent, now that's fucked up).

At present, tests are focused on detecting the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19. I don't think there's been much testing for antibodies, i.e. whether a person has had the virus and developed immunity. Hopefully a 5 minute check will be available soon in popups so we can work out where our herd immunity is at. That will start to inform the infection projections and provide a much more realistic view of what's going on.

Meanwhile, try not to end up like this guy:  Astrophysicist gets magnets stuck up nose while inventing coronavirus device:blink:

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The gift which keeps on giving.

7 hours ago, dorydude said:

We have had 18 deaths now in 6 weeks vs 120 deaths per week that would have occurred in a normal flu season.

So Dude only 18 deaths now in 6 weeks. Would that be because Australia hasn't seen the exponential growth of deaths here as you yourself state? Govt high test/trace rates and suppression methods working maybe?

7 hours ago, dorydude said:

Have we seen exponential growth of deaths and infections here? Again.....NO!

As for infection or cases your dead wrong. Exponential growth of cases doubling every five days and bang on global trend line per capita. The good news it has just dropped below that global trend line. Urban areas not so good. Go look it up. The caveat though is high number of tests per capita compared to some.

Now back to your theory that this no worse than a bad case of the flu for Australia. So somehow Australia is a special place??

You say "We have had 18 deaths now in 6 weeks vs 120 deaths per week that would have occurred in a normal flu season." You say nothing more which is hardly instructive so let me help you. 

According to ABS Causes of Death Australia  3,102 per annum. So 12 flu and influenza deaths per 100,000 population. BTW this is slightly higher than the US's at 10 deaths which you upthread claimed equated to 25.

Hospitalisations for the flu are approx 29,000 or 114 hospitalisations per 100,000 population or 0.11% annual.

So to your 120 deaths per week. Equates to 120 for 16 weeks is 1,920 leaving 1,200 or 33 per week for the remaining 36 weeks.

The virus peak is in late June spread between the last week of April to last of August with likewise for duration of approx 16 weeks. However due to being within ICU capacity deaths either side are very low. That is consistent with only 18 deaths now and a flu equivalent of today being mid summer what ever that figure is below the 33 deaths per week over 36 weeks.

EToXYRTWAAYNy8M.jpeg.f609461195bfcc2420eba28d17c7b361.jpeg

So we are in week 6 with another 4 weeks to go before the virus peaks start. So your comparison should be a total of 6 weeks gone plus 4 weeks to go or 10 weeks.

In that period of 10 weeks 330 flu deaths applying those numbers so if that figure of 330 is reached late this month for the virus then up to that point they are on par. Less the flu is worse.

This shows your flu correlation to be very good BUT up to this point only.

This is when the wheels fall off your narrative.

The Fatality Rate per Hospitalisation for the flu is 11%. However approx 2,600 or 10 per 100,000 population or 0.01% annually are admitted to ICU with the flu. That is 84% of total deaths. Coincidently around Australia's ICU capacity of 8.9 beds per 100,000 pop.

Despite the above and by your own numbers the number of cases and average death rate only increases four fold over the 16 week flu season to your 120 per week average. This sits within health care capacity. Immunisation plays a large part in that modest increase. The virus peak however with no immunisation and no suppression increases more than 25 fold the acute care capacity. Hence the need for strong suppression.

The number of cases and resultant deaths with a quarter of all virus hospitalisations aged below 50 in the 16 week period makes the flu look like chicken feed. This is due solely to the demand for acute treatment not being available as compared to the flu.

Dory before your standard reply of bullshit consider that I am not the author of above numbers. I am just the messenger.

 

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12 minutes ago, RobG said:

Sure, but in places like Australia where testing is mostly for overseas travellers with symptoms and contacts of positives (i.e. high probability of being positive), only a relatively small number of positives have been found amongst +200,000 tests. There is a high proportion of asymptomatic positives (over 50% from the much studied Diamond Princes), and the majority of symptomatic cases are mild. Even 71 year old Prince Charles got by with barely a sniffle...

..However, the reality is that at the moment in Australia the chances of catching the  disease are still relatively low  ...

But isnt the rest of the world in that same bucket except when you compare test rates per capita? Australia has been consistently second highest tester in the world per capita behind Korea.

Infection spread or case growth is at cases doubling every five days. That is bang on global trend per capita. The good news it has just dropped below that trend line, but that may be other countries catching up to Aust test rate.

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Just saw a video of bodies piled up in Chinese streets. It was shot 2 days ago. When you try and share it on Facebook it won’t let you. The poor Chinese- so many dead from the flu as soon as they got covid 19 under control. Poor little cunts can’t take a trick.

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1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

But isn't the rest of the world in that same bucket…

No, because Australia (along with a few other countries) started to act early. Maybe not as early and hard as some would have liked (including me), but maybe early enough to avoid the kind of tragedy unfolding elsewhere.

Economic impact? That one will be debated long and hard for decades.

1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

…except when you compare test rates per capita. Australia has been consistently second highest tester in the world per capita behind Korea.

Yes, hooray for that. Unfortunately the virus must still be allowed to circulate in a restricted rate (spread is inevitable anyway), herd immunity will likely occur to some extent before a vaccine or cure are available and that really is our only recourse a the moment. That is why an antibody test is important, so those with immunity can see their high–risk friends and family. Otherwise, they're in for a long stretch of loneliness.

Random thought: maybe Covid immunity will go on your driver's licence like blood type, or be used as a wedge for a mandatory national health record and photo ID card. The feds will finally get the Australia card they were denied way back in 1987. Interesting that Labor tried to introduce the card but was frustrated out of it by the Coalition. Seems the boot may be on the other foot now, though successive governments have pretty much done what the Australia Card was going to do anyway, just without the card, so maybe Labor (or whoever is in opposition next time it's brought up) would only provide token resistance.

Your tax file number, CentreLink identifier, health record, etc. are already linked, they are working on also linking to a national database of photo ID's based on drivers' licences. No doubt that was going to be the platform for the idiotic idea of forcing Australians to pass an over–18 identity test before accessing online porn sites. Quite apart from the practical impossibility of enforcing such a thing, or the issues arising from people being unable to discern valid ID checks from fake ones, or being able to spoof or avoid the check, it would create a massive honey–pot for hackers. That's where this shit leads (no, I'm not a conspiracy theorist but have worked as a contractor in IT for a long time across a number of government agencies and they have some really draconian tendencies).

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2 minutes ago, RobG said:

No, because Australia (along with a few other countries) started to act early.

No I only meant where positive test counts were coming compared to others and from exactly as you said. 

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3 hours ago, LB 15 said:

 Poor little cunts can’t take a trick.

LB , pleased to see you use the C.U.N.T .word as a term of endearment.

I was starting to get the impression you didn't like me.

Now on another tack,  we have both spent a lot of time in the Aus  Sailing Cesspool so I reckon our paths may have crossed at some stage.

Did you ever work for Rent-A-Wreck in the early days when Leon, Judy, Bernie and Evonne were running the show? Mid 80's there-abouts maybe?

 

Just ask'n

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1 hour ago, RobG said:

Economic impact? That one will be debated long and hard for decades.

Hats off to Australia starting early (amongst western countries) at no cost and ratcheting up suppression (per capita result rates don't lie) and to least minimise economic impact with constraints they can't change. The east like Korea and Singapore, the former still with no business lock downs..wow.

No coincidence the populists Trump and Johnson pretended it didn't even exist for the months of late Jan & February. Johnson then handwashing only lessons., fuck all testing, no mention of symptoms or isolating those at risk for two weeks, then saying on the Friday no further changes for a few weeks then on Monday announcing lock downs. Trump's pressers are at least entertaining for when you've smoked some weed. The stupidity is their lock-downs are now going to be harder and more costly, though I think in Trump's case the death count worries him less than his presser viewing ratings. He is already saying 200k body bags or 4 Vietnam's is a good job.

Dammed if you suppress and murder economy. Dammed if you don't and murder people. 

Dammed good time to be in Opposition...just nod your head in a circle and say nothing.

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4 minutes ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

LB..Did you ever work for Rent-A-Wreck in the early days when Leon, Judy, Bernie and Evonne were running the show?

Just ask'n

Nah that was the LB in Hawaii... up the stick of Passage in the middle of the night.. turned the windex into a sextant and swam back to Ala Wai and got half a dozen roots period I recall.

Still laugh about that.

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2 hours ago, LB 15 said:

Just saw a video of bodies piled up in Chinese streets. It was shot 2 days ago. When you try and share it on Facebook it won’t let you....

Mate here it is. Add it to your Bat Soup video share. Seems they went in using tanks to hide the evidence.. but the clean up plan went to shit when some hapless numbskull lost in the city....stopped them to ask directions.

 

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Jacky there is hope for us all.

Our future ruler , Chuck, is recovered

Hallelujah.

71 year old Prince Charles out of isolation.

 

 

Charles was only displaying mild symptoms last week, Clarence House said when confirming his diagnosis. It was not known how he caught the virus, because of his recent busy schedule of public events.

 

Please don't  repeat this news we don't want anyone NOT to be scared ####less.

Or, heaven forbid the focus back on the sports rorts.

 

Latest  (Australian)death is a Tasmanian man in his 80's. Very sad.

 

The isolation arrangements aren't turning out that good when this occurs....

 

A Melbourne aged care worker has been diagnosed with coronavirus just days after working at a nursing home with vulnerable residents.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, RobG said:

Yes, hooray for that. Unfortunately the virus must still be allowed to circulate in a restricted rate (spread is inevitable anyway), herd immunity will likely occur to some extent before a vaccine or cure are available and that really is our only recourse a the moment. That is why an antibody test is important, so those with immunity can see their high–risk friends and family. Otherwise, they're in for a long stretch of loneliness.

The Charite (Germany) has developed such a test. It works in the university research lab and is getting rolled out to Labor Berlin on the commercial side of the hospital. (Labor Berlin is major and highly automated commercial laboratory in Berlin.)
The usual thing in Germany would be to give the test recipe to the other university hospitals who then roll it out to local labs. The universities have the capability to do small scale testing in their research labs and more importantly the capability to do Q&A work.
The goal is to get the test out of the research lab as soon as feasible, they are required for some actual research the commercial labs can't do.

Labs in the UK also have developed an antibody test they are currently verifying/rolling out so there will be a working test.
Lets hope there will be an accurate, cheap and safe (only showing antibodies if they are really there) test soon after that. Looks like we need a few billion of them.

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Dory and Octopussy I found a guy you can argue with 24/7.

He is actually a Surgeon would believe it!!!

On 3/28/2020 at 4:37 PM, dorydude said:

...You are losing sight of the fact that this is just a bad flu. It joins a group of four or five corona viruses that do the rounds every year...

Dory: "But Doc you are losing sight of the fact that this is just a bad flu....It joins a group of four or five corona viruses that do the rounds every year."

Doc: "Dory, no it's "novel" or new and so called novel coronavirus, shortened to COVID-19 for the year and is a new SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome)...and no, no,...it's not just the "regular "flu..it's not."

Vid Go to 3.00 - 4.10

On 3/28/2020 at 6:53 PM, dorydude said:

Why do you keep banging on about ICU beds? 

Dory: "Doc why do you keep banging on about ICU beds?"

Doc: "Because Dory of the 20% that need to be hospitalised around half have to go to ICU and of those, about half have to be on respirators....do the math..we just don't have enough respirators..why respirators..well that is how coronavirus kills..it's a respiratory illness"

Note: This CONVID-19 50% of all admissions to ICU of total admissions (the 20% of cases and 25% <25 yo) compares to in Australia 2,600 (84% total deaths) to ICU of 29,000 total annual flu admissions or less than 9% of all admissions to ICU with the flu. Aust has 2,200 ICU beds.

Vid Go to 3.40 - 4.35

21 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Oh, doesn't fit your narrative ?

What about ... Symptoms of COVID-19 | Coronavirus in Australia | health.gov.au‎

 Most people (about 80%) recover from the disease without needing special treatment.

Says pretty much the same.

Octopus: "But Doc most people ...about 80%..recover from the disease without needing special treatment."

Doc: "Octopus correct 80% they don't have to be hospitalised, but the 20% that do need to be hospitalised around half have to go to ICU and of those, about half have to be on respirators....do the math..we just don't have enough respirators...why respirators..well that is  how coronavirus kills..it's a respiratory illness."

Note: This CONVID-19 50% of all admissions to ICU of total admissions (the 20% of cases and 25% <50 yo) compares to in Australia 2,600 (84% total deaths) to ICU of 29,000 total annual flu admissions or less than 9% of all admissions to ICU with the flu. Aust has 2,200 ICU beds

Vid Go to 3.40 - 4.35

Vid courtesy @Fiji Bitter

 

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Dory and Octopussy I found a guy you can argue with 24/7.

^^^^^^^^^^

But we love chatting to you Jack.

 

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3 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Jacky there is hope for us all.

Our future ruler , Chuck, is recovered

Hallelujah.

71 year old Prince Charles out of isolation.

Charles was only displaying mild symptoms last week, Clarence House said when confirming his diagnosis. It was not known how he caught the virus, because of his recent busy schedule of public events.

Please don't  repeat this news we don't want anyone NOT to be scared ####less.

Don't repeat this news??..Is that because he is still saying he wishes he was a tampon????

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3 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

A Melbourne aged care worker has been diagnosed with coronavirus just days after working at a nursing home with vulnerable residents.

Well that will send those Italians in Melbourne mental watching the Coronavis World Cup. Back in Italy they have nearly 3,000 health care workers diagnosed and 61 dead. That is some scoreline.

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11 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:
13 hours ago, dorydude said:

Once again, you post utter shit.

Did Prince Charles die?

Not my shit genius. Go bust your lip with the authors who are epidemiologists and scientists  of various persuasions. You are no doubt on a first name basis with after attending all those international conferences together.

Also if you see makeshift bed capacity being constucted in your postcode go tell them your Prince Charles theory and say they are wasting their time, it's only the flu

It’s bullshit propaganda, he never had it......much like I doubt that Johnson had/has as it appears he hasn’t even bothered with the 7 days of isolation 

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7 minutes ago, mad said:

It’s bullshit propaganda, he never had it......much like I doubt that Johnson had/has as it appears he hasn’t even bothered with the 7 days of isolation 

Very hard to prove Mad but bang on with the "populist" leader PR coming out of Downing St since last July. 

I'm fuckin surprised Trump hasn't come out and said he has got it now and from Canadian steel coming across the border and that his Chinese made ventilator doesn't work...his normal bumbling catastrofuck Presser alone will be gold.

He will also let it slip out to having caught the clap from either Stormy or one of his Generals, but he is not sure, so has asked Pence to set up a Taskforce to investigate.

Watch this space.

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10 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

"All my available wealth," you say, now Wayne that's your fairy tale. I've never worked out why??  Anyway why would I buy a fucking ventilator and rent three nurses a day to run the fucker? Putting aside a death rate here 3% yours, haven't you heard, it's no worse than the flu. 

The gift that keeps giving. So for all your shit thrown at the UK government about lack of equipment, here's a man of extreme wealth saying why would he buy a fucking ventilator and rent three nurses to save his own life, when back in December there was an outbreak of Covid-19, and being a man permanently at the computer screen, he should have twigged that he might just need a ventilator. Just like every health system around the world.

Everything becomes clear in hindsight and I'm sure knowing what we now know, the production of ventilators around the world would have surpassed any expected need.

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5 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Jacky there is hope for us all.

Our future ruler , Chuck, is recovered

Hallelujah.

71 year old Prince Charles out of isolation.

Its a figurehead position at best and has absolutely no bearing on what happens in the country!!! 

 I GET MOST OF MY EXERCISE THESE DAYS FROM SHAKING MY HEAD IN ...

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Well fuck me my butt-hurt pet stalker has climbed out of his rack in the UK, got to work and first thing he does for day is wet hump my leg. I think I did mention he just makes shit up and is a lying little cunt.

Well it seems he has plumbed a new Troll depth.

1 hour ago, Waynemarlow said:

The gift that keeps giving. So for all your shit thrown at the UK government about lack of equipment, here's a man of extreme wealth saying why would he buy a fucking ventilator and rent three nurses to save his own life, when back in December there was an outbreak of Covid-19, and being a man permanently at the computer screen, he should have twigged that he might just need a ventilator. Just like every health system around the world...

HOUSEKEEPING

1. "Jack a question, you seem to think that everybody has totally fucked up.."

No I reminded you as per below "Not everyone. Your boss Boris whose dick you use as a snorkel is yes one..."

2. "..here's a man of extreme wealth.."

"..with all your available wealth,.."

No that is your invention Wayne as replied below. "All my available wealth," you say, now Wayne that's your fairy tale. I've never worked out why??"

3. "why would('nt) he buy a fucking ventilator and rent three nurses to save his own life,."

Wayne you deliberately snipped the bit that sticks in your craw it seems and why no such purchase. 

"...Putting aside a death rate here 3% yours,.."

NOW THE GRUBBY LITTLE CUNT BIT

3. "why would('nt) he buy a fucking ventilator and rent three nurses to save his own life,."

"..buy yourself a ventilator considering just how at risk you are to needing one ?"

"he should have twigged that he might just need a ventilator."

Question: Why would Wayne say all that in the space of two posts you may well ask?

Answer: From snippets in other threads Wayne knows exactly this about my personal/family circumstances and stores it like Trolls do:

a) I'm at very extremely high risk due to chemo and other shit. Those who have PM'd me understand that.

b) A Perfect Storm being everyone in two top family generations all are high risk incl another chemo some under 50 yo.

c) While I luxurate in a place with one of the lowest virus death rates per capita, Wayne knows full my kids around the world are in places which are not fucking brilliant on face value. Hence interest.

Gobsmacked..I have no fucking words for you Wayne.

12 hours ago, Waynemarlow said:

...Jack a question, you seem to think that everybody has totally fucked up how they have dealt with this virus problem, did you back in December or January or even February, with all your available wealth, buy yourself a ventilator considering just how at risk you are to needing one ? Or were you just like everybody else and fucked it up as well.

 

12 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Now there you go making shit up again Wayne.

Not everyone. Your boss Boris whose dick you use as a snorkel is yes one. I hope he is recovering after catching it because his fucktard 68 million people handwashing plan went down the gurgler. I see your CMO saying a maybe 20K fatalities London now. That's not good if right.

"All my available wealth," you say, now Wayne that's your fairy tale. I've never worked out why??  Anyway why would I buy a fucking ventilator and rent three nurses a day to run the fucker? Putting aside a death rate here 3% yours, haven't you heard, it's no worse than the flu. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Waynemarlow said:

The gift that keeps giving.

Enough Jack, I'm quite happy to get back to the Brexit thread and leave the Aussie thread to you, if of course you will stop sniping constantly on the Brexit thread which has fuck all to do with you.

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20 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

Enough Jack, I'm quite happy to get back to the Brexit thread.. which has  fuck all to do with you.

Enough ..I haven't even started with you yet cunt. So going back to the thread where I have more skin in the game than you thread, the one you left where everyone has you on Ignore thread...except when wanting some sport. Yeah that will work.

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36 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

nswer: From snippets in other threads Wayne knows exactly this about my personal/family circumstances and stores it like Trolls do:

Sort of sums things up when the shit slingers suddenly pull out the family card to garner sympathy votes from their little sycophants, I guess that's " I'll hide behind my computer generated bravado " coming to the fore,  as I have always said there's two sides to most stories.

 

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29 minutes ago, Waynemarlow said:

Sort of sums things up when the shit slingers suddenly pull out the family card to garner sympathy votes from their little sycophants,.. as I have always said there's two sides to most stories.

You pulled it out cunt...sycophants here ..that's a laugh. Two sides I have printed ..you invent shit...if not pathological liar.

You keep that drool rolling in your head.

You are on ignore so fuck off.

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7 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

LB , pleased to see you use the C.U.N.T .word as a term of endearment.

I was starting to get the impression you didn't like me.

Now on another tack,  we have both spent a lot of time in the Aus  Sailing Cesspool so I reckon our paths may have crossed at some stage.

Did you ever work for Rent-A-Wreck in the early days when Leon, Judy, Bernie and Evonne were running the show? Mid 80's there-abouts maybe?

 

Just ask'n

Like taking candy from a baby. At least try to ignore the bait G..,

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6 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Jacky there is hope for us all.

Our future ruler , Chuck, is recovered

Hallelujah.

71 year old Prince Charles out of isolation.

 

 

Charles was only displaying mild symptoms last week, Clarence House said when confirming his diagnosis. It was not known how he caught the virus, because of his recent busy schedule of public events.

 

Please don't  repeat this news we don't want anyone NOT to be scared ####less.

Or, heaven forbid the focus back on the sports rorts.

 

Latest  (Australian)death is a Tasmanian man in his 80's. Very sad.

 

The isolation arrangements aren't turning out that good when this occurs....

 

A Melbourne aged care worker has been diagnosed with coronavirus just days after working at a nursing home with vulnerable residents.

 

 

 

What number of body bags will help your argument? No one died of the flu in Australia yesterday. But three died of of self strangulation wanking. Have you tried it yet?

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16 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

You are on ignore so fuck off.

He always says that and in about a day he's back spewing bile at anything that might not fit in with his agenda of the moment, and yes his moments change like the up and down motions of a whores drawers.

Shall we resume on the Australian Coronavira success as it looks for the moment.

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3 minutes ago, LB 15 said:

What number of body bags will help your argument?

Unless Octopus is swayed by the Doctor I think he is punting on around 10k bags and that is sweet. I could be wrong.

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1 hour ago, LB 15 said:

What number of body bags will help your argument? No one died of the flu in Australia yesterday. But three died of of self strangulation wanking. Have you tried it yet?

Older Man Bites Into Orange To Start The Peeling Process Stock ...Just in case

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11 hours ago, mad said:

Its a figurehead position at best and has absolutely no bearing on what happens in the country!!! 

 I GET MOST OF MY EXERCISE THESE DAYS FROM SHAKING MY HEAD IN ...

Well that was fun.

Biting like a starving (Mangrove )Jack.

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9 hours ago, LB 15 said:

What number of body bags will help your argument?

You have lost me.

Remind me again what my argument is.

PS.

The Bottom feeders are biting well in this channel.

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11 hours ago, LB 15 said:

But three died of of self strangulation wanking. Have you tried it yet?

Is that the Michael Hutchins? 

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20 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

 

Nice find Jack.

You seem very interested in how things kill you.

I have decided to add another for your entertainment ;)

https://www.quora.com/How-exactly-does-getting-shot-by-a-gun-kill-you

Taking special note of .........The simplest way to explain it is that it makes a hole.

PS 

I find it bizarre you find it necessary to post this shit.

Wacko Jacko seems even more fitting.

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14 minutes ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Nice find Jack.

You seem very interested in how things kill you.

I have decided to add another for your entertainment ;)

https://www.quora.com/How-exactly-does-getting-shot-by-a-gun-kill-you

Taking special note of .........The simplest way to explain it is that it makes a hole.

PS 

I find it bizarre you find it necessary to post this shit.

Wacko Jacko seems even more fitting.

You have always loved those emojis haven't you G? Even when you were falling apart because Jessica became the youngest person to circumnavigate you still had to include a few of them like a teenage girl.

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6 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

You have lost me.

Remind me again what my argument is.

"Remind me again what my argument is."

Octopus did you have fall and crack your head? Was that at birth or more recently?

Let me help you:

1. Your "likeys" of Dory's posts comprising the following wack-job theory is a giveaway son.

Dory says it is only a bad flu, death count will be on par with the flu, virus might have a weird name but it happens every year, will only kill those most at risk just like the flu, has a very low infection and mortality rate in Australia and health care services capacity is irelevant. 

Therefore he says other than washing your hands and locking up those at risk, what the government is doing is fucking stupid. It will kill the economy just to save people who are mostly either old or unhealthy and on the way out anyway. 

So Albatros in giving Dory those "likeys" you support that theory PLUS have ignored or mocked warnings (incl from me) that the material Dory posts to support his whack-job theory are at best selective and at worst pulled out of his arse. I have to say that his claim that up to 99.2% of virus deaths in Italy was caused by existing ailments was the pinnacle in his shitfuckery. 

Interestingly Dory has been non existent here since that bit of shit was exposed? I hope he hasn't tested positive and is shitting his pants in isolation somewhere without Wifi??

2. Anyway Octupus is that enough? If not and just in case those Dory "likeys" were for the purposes of you hooking up and both getting it on, your fucktard posts under your own hand are more instructive to helping you remember.

I see another one just in where you say "I find it bizarre you find it necessary to post this shit." and I'm "whacko" along with a you posting a linky on firearms fatalities??? Are you sane??

I do find it fucking hilarious you snipped the bit from the post of the doctor answering your question; 

Vid Go to 3.40 - 4.35

"But Doc most people ...about 80%..recover from the disease without needing special treatment" and his reply; 

"Octopus correct 80% they don't have to be hospitalised, but the 20% that do need to be hospitalised around half have to go to ICU and of those, about half have to be on respirators....do the math..we just don't have enough respirators...why respirators..well that is  how coronavirus kills..it's a respiratory illness."

...and also you sniping out Australian ICU stats, can't have those fucking with your theory can we.

Note: This CONVID-19 50% of all admissions to ICU of total admissions (the 20% of cases and 25% <50 yo) compares to in Australia 2,600 (84% total deaths) to ICU of 29,000 total annual flu admissions or less than 9% of all admissions to ICU with the flu. Aust has 2,200 ICU beds

Albatros you really should start protesting in the streets with a placard saying "It's only the Flu" to stop the Government wasting taxpayer money bumping up existing ICU and Vent capacity from 2,200 to 7,500 beds and there is no need to slow the spread of a flu. Seriously you will get many joining you. 

Can't take foot off the pedal': ICU capacity ramped up while coronavirus spread slows

As for the whacko bit, did it ever come to your mind you may just be the whacko one?

 

20 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Octopus: "But Doc most people ...about 80%..recover from the disease without needing special treatment."

Doc: "Octopus correct 80% they don't have to be hospitalised, but the 20% that do need to be hospitalised around half have to go to ICU and of those, about half have to be on respirators....do the math..we just don't have enough respirators...why respirators..well that is  how coronavirus kills..it's a respiratory illness."

Note: This CONVID-19 50% of all admissions to ICU of total admissions (the 20% of cases and 25% <50 yo) compares to in Australia 2,600 (84% total deaths) to ICU of 29,000 total annual flu admissions or less than 9% of all admissions to ICU with the flu. Aust has 2,200 ICU beds

Vid Go to 3.40 - 4.35

1 hour ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Nice find Jack.

You seem very interested in how things kill you.

I have decided to add another for your entertainment ;)

https://www.quora.com/How-exactly-does-getting-shot-by-a-gun-kill-you

Taking special note of .........The simplest way to explain it is that it makes a hole.

PS 

I find it bizarre you find it necessary to post this shit.

Wacko Jacko seems even more fitting

 

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The Guardian has an article displaying quiet optimism that the measures adopted are starting to have an effect. That is good not only because of reduced new cases, but because it shows that "social distancing" is an effective strategy in attenuating the spread of the virus. Likely it will continue to spread, but hopefully at a rate that keeps it below the level of resources available to treat sufferers.

Experts think that the current down trend is due to the reduction of overseas arrivals (which accounts for about 80% of current cases) and effective quarantine and isolation measures. However, there will be a following upturn as community transmission takes over as the primary source of cases. Hopefully social distancing is also effective in moderating this "second wave" and we can start to re–assess and adapt to our new circumstances until newer, faster tests are ubiquitous.

When a cure or vaccine are finally ready hopefully it will be a huge anti–climax and when everyone is told to get their jab they respond with "Covid–19? Oh, that." Hopefully the vaccine will be ready for the 2021 flu season and can be administered in conjunction.

371320763_Guardian20200401aScreenShot2020-04-01at14_37_10.thumb.png.6e48c13e47d0e4750a53351c95f6e07d.png

2012232543_Guardian20200401b.png.ba85e69390c8b1a48c3b677120c58d84.png

 

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

"Remind me again what my argument is."

Octopus did you have fall and crack your head? Was that at birth or more recently?

Let me help you:

1. Your "likeys" of Dory's posts comprising the following wack-job theory is a giveaway son.

Dory says it is only a bad flu, death count will be on par with the flu, virus might have a weird name but it happens every year, will only kill those most at risk just like the flu, has a very low infection and mortality rate in Australia and health care services capacity is irelevant. 

Therefore he says other than washing your hands and locking up those at risk, what the government is doing is fucking stupid. It will kill the economy just to save people who are mostly either old or unhealthy and on the way out anyway. 

So Albatros in giving Dory those "likeys" you support that theory PLUS have ignored or mocked warnings (incl from me) that the material Dory posts to support his whack-job theory are at best selective and at worst pulled out of his arse. I have to say that his claim that up to 99.2% of virus deaths in Italy was caused by existing ailments was the pinnacle in his shitfuckery. 

Interestingly Dory has been non existent here since that bit of shit was exposed? I hope he hasn't tested positive and is shitting his pants in isolation somewhere without Wifi??

2. Anyway Octupus is that enough? If not and just in case those Dory "likeys" were for the purposes of you hooking up and both getting it on, your fucktard posts under your own hand are more instructive to helping you remember.

I see another one just in where you say "I find it bizarre you find it necessary to post this shit." and I'm "whacko" along with a you posting a linky on firearms fatalities??? Are you sane??

I do find it fucking hilarious you snipped the bit from the post of the doctor answering your question; 

Vid Go to 3.40 - 4.35

"But Doc most people ...about 80%..recover from the disease without needing special treatment" and his reply; 

"Octopus correct 80% they don't have to be hospitalised, but the 20% that do need to be hospitalised around half have to go to ICU and of those, about half have to be on respirators....do the math..we just don't have enough respirators...why respirators..well that is  how coronavirus kills..it's a respiratory illness."

...and also you sniping out Australian ICU stats, can't have those fucking with your theory can we.

Note: This CONVID-19 50% of all admissions to ICU of total admissions (the 20% of cases and 25% <50 yo) compares to in Australia 2,600 (84% total deaths) to ICU of 29,000 total annual flu admissions or less than 9% of all admissions to ICU with the flu. Aust has 2,200 ICU beds

Albatros you really should start protesting in the streets with a placard saying "It's only the Flu" to stop the Government wasting taxpayer money bumping up existing ICU and Vent capacity from 2,200 to 7,500 beds and there is no need to slow the spread of a flu. Seriously you will get many joining you. 

Can't take foot off the pedal': ICU capacity ramped up while coronavirus spread slows

As for the whacko bit, did it ever come to your mind you may just be the whacko one?

 

 

Nice thesis Jacko.

Well ,Wacko, really.

I have been tasked with keeping you ISOLATED in this thread.

I seem to be doing a great job.

Carry on.

 

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

"Remind me again what my argument is."

Octopus did you have fall and crack your head? Was that at birth or more recently?

Let me help you:

1. Your "likeys" of Dory's posts comprising the following wack-job theory is a giveaway son.

Dory says it is only a bad flu, death count will be on par with the flu, virus might have a weird name but it happens every year, will only kill those most at risk just like the flu, has a very low infection and mortality rate in Australia and health care services capacity is irelevant. 

Therefore he says other than washing your hands and locking up those at risk, what the government is doing is fucking stupid. It will kill the economy just to save people who are mostly either old or unhealthy and on the way out anyway. 

So Albatros in giving Dory those "likeys" you support that theory PLUS have ignored or mocked warnings (incl from me) that the material Dory posts to support his whack-job theory are at best selective and at worst pulled out of his arse. I have to say that his claim that up to 99.2% of virus deaths in Italy was caused by existing ailments was the pinnacle in his shitfuckery. 

Interestingly Dory has been non existent here since that bit of shit was exposed? I hope he hasn't tested positive and is shitting his pants in isolation somewhere without Wifi??

2. Anyway Octupus is that enough? If not and just in case those Dory "likeys" were for the purposes of you hooking up and both getting it on, your fucktard posts under your own hand are more instructive to helping you remember.

I see another one just in where you say "I find it bizarre you find it necessary to post this shit." and I'm "whacko" along with a you posting a linky on firearms fatalities??? Are you sane??

I do find it fucking hilarious you snipped the bit from the post of the doctor answering your question; 

Vid Go to 3.40 - 4.35

"But Doc most people ...about 80%..recover from the disease without needing special treatment" and his reply; 

"Octopus correct 80% they don't have to be hospitalised, but the 20% that do need to be hospitalised around half have to go to ICU and of those, about half have to be on respirators....do the math..we just don't have enough respirators...why respirators..well that is  how coronavirus kills..it's a respiratory illness."

...and also you sniping out Australian ICU stats, can't have those fucking with your theory can we.

Note: This CONVID-19 50% of all admissions to ICU of total admissions (the 20% of cases and 25% <50 yo) compares to in Australia 2,600 (84% total deaths) to ICU of 29,000 total annual flu admissions or less than 9% of all admissions to ICU with the flu. Aust has 2,200 ICU beds

Albatros you really should start protesting in the streets with a placard saying "It's only the Flu" to stop the Government wasting taxpayer money bumping up existing ICU and Vent capacity from 2,200 to 7,500 beds and there is no need to slow the spread of a flu. Seriously you will get many joining you. 

Can't take foot off the pedal': ICU capacity ramped up while coronavirus spread slows

As for the whacko bit, did it ever come to your mind you may just be the whacko one?

 

 

He can't protest on the streets. He is locked down in his mothers house in Wellington where he has lived for the past decade after losing his job as a paint salesmen for being a cunt on the internet. For proof of this just watch as he goes crying to clean for outing him again. 

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21 minutes ago, RobG said:

The Guardian has an article displaying quiet optimism that the measures adopted are starting to have an effect. That is good not only because of reduced new cases, but because it shows that "social distancing" is an effective strategy in attenuating the spread of the virus. Likely it will continue to spread, but hopefully at a rate that keeps it below the level of resources available to treat sufferers.

Experts think that the current down trend is due to the reduction of overseas arrivals (which accounts for about 80% of current cases) and effective quarantine and isolation measures. However, there will be a following upturn as community transmission takes over as the primary source of cases. Hopefully social distancing is also effective in moderating this "second wave" and we can start to re–assess and adapt to our new circumstances until newer, faster tests are ubiquitous.

When a cure or vaccine are finally ready hopefully it will be a huge anti–climax and when everyone is told to get their jab they respond with "Covid–19? Oh, that." Hopefully the vaccine will be ready for the 2021 flu season and can be administered in conjunction.

371320763_Guardian20200401aScreenShot2020-04-01at14_37_10.thumb.png.6e48c13e47d0e4750a53351c95f6e07d.png

2012232543_Guardian20200401b.png.ba85e69390c8b1a48c3b677120c58d84.png

 

 

the real problem, as many modellers have pointed out, is that just like the 1919 Flu, we'll get hit again with a second round in approximately 6 months time .

We want to have enough immunity in the population by then to shrug it off.  Too effective in the quarantine now, and we won't have that.

 

My simplistic understanding of the Herd Immunity Thresholds (HIT) says that with an R0 of 3, we need about 50% of the population to be immune to make it go away, or a fair bit less to just have it be a less deadly wave.

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2 hours ago, LB 15 said:

He can't protest on the streets. He is locked down in his mothers house in Wellington where he has lived for the past decade after losing his job as a paint salesmen for being a cunt on the internet. For proof of this just watch as he goes crying to clean for outing him again. 

 

Why would Wacko Jacko want to protest.

And WTF is Jackos' past career relevant.

Isn't he happy isolated with his computer.

You still haven't told we WTF the small NSW town of Wellington has got to do with all this.

You seem as wacko as Jacko.

 

.

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Heard Immunity requires at least 70% of the population to become infected. It doesn't work. Look at Australian sailing for instance. Around 95% of us are infected by their stupidity yet they continue to impact on our lives.

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9 minutes ago, duncan (the other one) said:

the real problem, as many modellers have pointde out, is that just like the 1919 Flu, we'll get hit again with a second round in approximately 6 months time .

We want to have enough immunity in the population by then to shrug it off.  Too effective in the quarantine now, and we won't have that.

The second round is the herd immunity phase, the current phase is just getting it under control (hopefully). Getting to 70% of 26 million in 1 year is 50,000 new cases per day (2.6e7 * 0.7 ÷ 365).

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1 minute ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

You still haven't told we WTF the small NSW town of Wellington has got to do with all this.

You could use your time in isolation to learn about grammar and sentence construction. 

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On 3/31/2020 at 1:41 PM, jack_sparrow said:

The gift which keeps on giving.

So Dude only 18 deaths now in 6 weeks. Would that be because Australia hasn't seen the exponential growth of deaths here as you yourself state? Govt high test/trace rates and suppression methods working maybe?

As for infection or cases your dead wrong. Exponential growth of cases doubling every five days and bang on global trend line per capita. The good news it has just dropped below that global trend line. Urban areas not so good. Go look it up. The caveat though is high number of tests per capita compared to some.

Now back to your theory that this no worse than a bad case of the flu for Australia. So somehow Australia is a special place??

You say "We have had 18 deaths now in 6 weeks vs 120 deaths per week that would have occurred in a normal flu season." You say nothing more which is hardly instructive so let me help you. 

According to ABS Causes of Death Australia  3,102 per annum. So 12 flu and influenza deaths per 100,000 population. BTW this is slightly higher than the US's at 10 deaths which you upthread claimed equated to 25.

Hospitalisations for the flu are approx 29,000 or 114 hospitalisations per 100,000 population or 0.11% annual.

So to your 120 deaths per week. Equates to 120 for 16 weeks is 1,920 leaving 1,200 or 33 per week for the remaining 36 weeks.

The virus peak is in late June spread between the last week of April to last of August with likewise for duration of approx 16 weeks. However due to being within ICU capacity deaths either side are very low. That is consistent with only 18 deaths now and a flu equivalent of today being mid summer what ever that figure is below the 33 deaths per week over 36 weeks.

EToXYRTWAAYNy8M.jpeg.f609461195bfcc2420eba28d17c7b361.jpeg

So we are in week 6 with another 4 weeks to go before the virus peaks start. So your comparison should be a total of 6 weeks gone plus 4 weeks to go or 10 weeks.

In that period of 10 weeks 330 flu deaths applying those numbers so if that figure of 330 is reached late this month for the virus then up to that point they are on par. Less the flu is worse.

This shows your flu correlation to be very good BUT up to this point only.

This is when the wheels fall off your narrative.

The Fatality Rate per Hospitalisation for the flu is 11%. However approx 2,600 or 10 per 100,000 population or 0.01% annually are admitted to ICU with the flu. That is 84% of total deaths. Coincidently around Australia's ICU capacity of 8.9 beds per 100,000 pop.

Despite the above and by your own numbers the number of cases and average death rate only increases four fold over the 16 week flu season to your 120 per week average. This sits within health care capacity. Immunisation plays a large part in that modest increase. The virus peak however with no immunisation and no suppression increases more than 25 fold the acute care capacity. Hence the need for strong suppression.

The number of cases and resultant deaths with a quarter of all virus hospitalisations aged below 50 in the 16 week period makes the flu look like chicken feed. This is due solely to the demand for acute treatment not being available as compared to the flu.

Dory before your standard reply of bullshit consider that I am not the author of above numbers. I am just the messenger.

 

Here ya go, dickhead.

This is EXACTLY what I have been trying to tell you:

 

https://news.sky.com/video/covid-19-how-do-figures-of-virus-deaths-compare-to-a-normal-year-11964813

Whilst the stories from Northern Italy, New York etc are shocking, the overall effect will not be great.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Why would I want to protest.

Fixed. Why??? Well on that piece of cardboard to go around your miserable neck it says.. "It's only the Flu" 

2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Albatros you really should start protesting in the streets with a placard saying "It's only the Flu" to stop the Government wasting taxpayer money bumping up existing ICU and Vent capacity from 2,200 to 7,500 beds and there is no need to slow the spread of a flu. Seriously you will get many joining you. 

 

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Fixed. Why??? Well on that piece of cardboard to go around your miserable neck it says.. "It's only the Flu" 

 

Mmmmmmmm,

Tell me more.

image.png.76c43354ea1d33011a220bf156323382.png

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18 minutes ago, dorydude said:

This is EXACTLY what I have been trying to tell you:

https://news.sky.com/video/covid-19-how-do-figures-of-virus-deaths-compare-to-a-normal-year-11964813

Whilst the stories from Northern Italy, New York etc are shocking, the overall effect will not be great.

Maybe you missed the part where 20,000 may die "even with social distancing and shielding of vulnerable groups". In other words, even with the UK's current restrictions, Covid-19 is still projected to kill 20,000 people.

Even allowing for the questionable "background deaths" reduction in numbers, Covid-19 will more than double the number of expected flu deaths this year (for which there is no adjustment for "background deaths"). And that is with the current restrictions in place.  Note also that the current mortality rate for Covid-19 in the UK is 7%, which is way above the mortality rate for influenza at around 0.1%.

There is also no adjustment for collateral deaths, i.e. where someone dies because resources that might have saved them aren't available because they're being used for a Covid-19 patient. That is the case where ICU is overwhelmed (as in NY, Italy, Spain, etc.).

Hardly a ringing endorsement for the "do nothing" case or "no cause for concern" viewpoint.

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26 minutes ago, dorydude said:

Here ya go, dickhead.

This is EXACTLY what I have been trying to tell you:

 

https://news.sky.com/video/covid-19-how-do-figures-of-virus-deaths-compare-to-a-normal-year-11964813

Whilst the stories from Northern Italy, New York etc are shocking, the overall effect will not be great.

 

 

Dorydude is just another of Octopussy/George/ringlocksystems/Blah/Blah/Blah's sock puppets. It is his standard modus operandi. He thinks SA in a tag team intellectual midget wrestling match.

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On 3/31/2020 at 12:41 PM, jack_sparrow said:

Dory before your standard reply of bullshit consider that I am not the author of above numbers. I am just the messenger.

"Here ya go, dickhead"....Well that polite suggestion worked a treat.

44 minutes ago, dorydude said:

Here ya go, dickhead 

This is EXACTLY what I have been trying to tell you:

https://news.sky.com/video/covid-19-how-do-figures-of-virus-deaths-compare-to-a-normal-year-11964813

Whilst the stories from Northern Italy, New York etc are shocking, the overall effect will not be great.

Rob Dory misses many parts and pulls many parts out of his arse. It's difficult keeping up I can tell you from experience and not just because they all stink. 

28 minutes ago, RobG said:

Maybe you missed the part where 20,000 may die "even with social distancing and shielding of vulnerable groups". In other words, even with the UK's current restrictions, Covid-19 is still projected to kill 20,000 people.

Even allowing for the questionable "background deaths" reduction in numbers, Covid-19 will more than double the number of expected flu deaths this year (for which there is no adjustment for "background deaths"). And that is with the current restrictions in place.  Note also that the current mortality rate for Covid-19 in the UK is 7%, which is way above the mortality rate for influenza at around 0.1%.

Hardly a ringing endorsement for the "do nothing" case or "no cause for concern" viewpoint.

Rob so after Dory has said you are a dickhead be prepared for more it's only a bad flu shitfuckery...his claim that up to 99.2% of virus deaths in Italy was caused by existing ailments is a cracker.

To add to your post over Dory's 600,000 UK annual deaths for everything including 99 year old prostitutes having heart attacks,  that 600k number might be around global flu deaths.

The WHO estimates that between 290,000 and 650,000 respiratory deaths globally each year are associated with seasonal influenza.

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1 hour ago, LB 15 said:

Dorydude is just another of Octopussy/George/ringlocksystems/Blah/Blah/Blah's sock puppets. It is his standard modus operandi. He thinks SA in a tag team intellectual midget wrestling match.

Bwahahahaha.

Has your therapist discussed PARANOIA with you yet.

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35 minutes ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Mmmmmmmm,

Tell me more.

image.png.76c43354ea1d33011a220bf156323382.png

Octupus tell you "more" ???

Mate don't be alarmed, but after you being told everything to date and asking that??...a quick check between the ears indicates a 100% Word & Concepts Leakage factor. 

That is a very strong clinical sign you are in the serious 20% bracket and the virus is already on board incubating like wildfire due to the presence of light inside your noggin.

You haven't a lot of time left otherwise your cactus. Best bet is jump in the car alone so you don't spread it and hotfoot it to the nearest hospital...don't forget to close your ears and eyes to slow it down.

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Octupus tell you "more" ???

 

WTF is Octupus ???

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1 minute ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

WTF is Octupus ???

Its Roman I think. Short for obelisk 

 

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Ok Jacko,

Seeing that it is now permissible to quote Murdocks' Muppets (one for you LB),

May I now present this definitive commentary on the state of play.

(please, Wacko ,hold back on the  dissection and thesis writing, tongue firmly  in cheek)

https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6145949551001

 

Sky News host Andrew Bolt says “the evidence is becoming overwhelming” that the danger of the deadly coronavirus “was wildly exaggerated” and is nothing like what we’ve been told.

In the words of Sam Kekovich

"YOU KNOW IT MAKES SENSE"

:) 

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1 hour ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

WTF is Octupus ???

It must be hard to keep track of them all. Maybe make a spreadsheet with each log-on name and a list of the members you are currently involved in a shitfight with as that puppet.

If you need to act like such a childish cunt at least be an organised childish cunt.

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31 minutes ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Ok Jacko,

Seeing that it is now permissible to quote Murdocks' Muppets (one for you LB),

May I now present this definitive commentary on the state of play.

(please, Wacko ,hold back on the  dissection and thesis writing, tongue firmly  in cheek)

https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6145949551001

 

Sky News host Andrew Bolt says “the evidence is becoming overwhelming” that the danger of the deadly coronavirus “was wildly exaggerated” and is nothing like what we’ve been told.

In the words of Sam Kekovich

"YOU KNOW IT MAKES SENSE"

:) 

Andrew Bolt. The voice of reason. G my politics are slightly to the right of Tony Abbotts and even I don't take that cunt seriously. Who are you going to quote next - that old fag Alan Jones?

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1 hour ago, LB 15 said:

Andrew Bolt. The voice of reason. G my politics are slightly to the right of Tony Abbotts and even I don't take that cunt seriously. Who are you going to quote next - that old fag Alan Jones?

Jeeesus LB.

Steady on .

The  bait supply is running low.

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Just now, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Jeeesus LB.

Steady on .

The  bait supply is running low.

You must be getting close to my office now. When are you likely to show? I will put the kettle on.

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2 hours ago, LB 15 said:

You must be getting close to my office now. When are you likely to show? I will put the kettle on.

Well... its such a beautiful evening here, we got a good haul of prawns today, and went for a nice EXERCISE walk through the Stradbroke Bush. Mr Octopus loves photographing all the Banksia in bloom . 

You are just going to have to wait a little while longer, I know you are disappointed, but understandably we are in no rush to leave just yet.

Will call the office and give you a heads up prior.

XX

 

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3 hours ago, duncan (the other one) said:

..the real problem, as many modellers have pointed out, is that just like the 1919 Flu, we'll get hit again with a second round in approximately 6 months time .

Dunc you are on the money and many people don't appreciate how many the Spanish Flu is being used by epidemiologists and modellers.

Spanish Flu had three waves though with slow global movement then it translates into two waves today, the first the largest. CONFID-19 waves their timing and intensity is at the heart of responses.

Pretty clear on Wave #1 now by Case Fatality Rate. 

Spanish Flu Global 1918/19 - 2.3%

CONVID-19 Global Today - 5% (193 of 195 countries)

China to 11 Feb - 2.3% after 65 days

UK to 15 March -  2.55% after 44 days 

UK 17 March - 3.40% after 46 days.

UK Today - 7.2% after 60 days.

Aust Today - 0.4%

Sth Korea Today - 1.7% (but very high population density)

UK Spanish Flu

ETEEY1MXQAAE6Qx.jpeg.51ab80d45c45d133d17c4c55eb2f138a.jpeg.3250eb6c68dd4c561351e850727101bc.jpeg

IMG_20200316_144909.jpg.cfcacdf58df055e9cfd495c63043fc72.jpg.c3b300a21d5324a87fe8ab58e98d6ede.jpg

3 hours ago, duncan (the other one) said:

We want to have enough immunity in the population by then to shrug it off.  Too effective in the quarantine now, and we won't have that.

My simplistic understanding of the Herd Immunity Thresholds (HIT) says that with an R0 of 3, we need about 50% of the population to be immune to make  it go away, or a fair bit less to just have it be a less deadly wave .

I have cited the UK above on purpose as they have up until the week ending 20 March had a "containment" strategy that started to go badly wrong and U-Turned to a "suppression" strategy like that Australia instigated over a month ago and longer for testing/trace component. Even though Australia preceded the UK in first cases, today it has 3% the UK's fatalities per capita. See below.

"Herd immunity" or a "natural immunisation" involves a very high number of fatalities without any "containment" or "suppression" action and in the absence of a vaccine. Think Spanish Flu. The virus fatality rate for a country like Australia and US demographic is in the order of 665 persons per 100,000 or 2.2 million there or 180,000 here.

A "containment" strategy is low cost and will reduce fatalities but it overwhelm any health system. While high fatalities small impact on economy. Ball park fatality rate is around half that of doing nothing.

Prior to end of March think the US and UK (who have done UTurn abandoning containment) both with dated Pandemic Emergency Plans over a decade old.

A "suppression" strategy is high cost to the economy it is possible to reduce impact on health system and keep fatalities within a socially acceptable limit. Ball park fatality rate is one - tenth max of doing nothing.

Think Sth Korea (closed border with China 3 January), Singapore and slower timing Australia. No coincidence all three close to China and previous SARS experiences. Have refined Pandemic Specific Emergency Plans.

There is far greater risk attached to virus getting away with even the best suppression than over suppressing it and then being more susceptible to subsequent waves.

 

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1 hour ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Ok Jacko,

Seeing that it is now permissible to quote Murdocks' Muppets (one for you LB),

May I now present this definitive commentary on the state of play.

(please, Wacko ,hold back on the  dissection and thesis writing, tongue firmly  in cheek)

https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6145949551001

 

Sky News host Andrew Bolt says “the evidence is becoming overwhelming” that the danger of the deadly coronavirus “was wildly exaggerated” and is nothing like what we’ve been told.

In the words of Sam Kekovich

"YOU KNOW IT MAKES SENSE"

:) 

Thesis 

EPj-yoZXUAEbT5a.jpeg

unnamed (10).gif

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2 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

WTF is Octupus ???

 

2 hours ago, shaggybaxter said:

Its Roman I think. Short for obelisk 

Gaelic plural for 8Clunts spoken with a lisp.

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3 hours ago, RobG said:

Maybe you missed the part where 20,000 may die "even with social distancing and shielding of vulnerable groups". In other words, even with the UK's current restrictions, Covid-19 is still projected to kill 20,000 people.

Even allowing for the questionable "background deaths" reduction in numbers, Covid-19 will more than double the number of expected flu deaths this year (for which there is no adjustment for "background deaths"). And that is with the current restrictions in place.  Note also that the current mortality rate for Covid-19 in the UK is 7%, which is way above the mortality rate for influenza at around 0.1%.

There is also no adjustment for collateral deaths, i.e. where someone dies because resources that might have saved them aren't available because they're being used for a Covid-19 patient. That is the case where ICU is overwhelmed (as in NY, Italy, Spain, etc.).

Hardly a ringing endorsement for the "do nothing" case or "no cause for concern" viewpoint.

Even the bits of your post that kind of make sense are so wrong it's ridiculous.

 

I have never, ever advocated "doing nothing."

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Dunc you are on the money and many people don't appreciate how many the Spanish Flu is being used by epidemiologists and modellers.

Spanish Flu had three waves though with slow global movement then it translates into two waves today, the first the largest. CONFID-19 waves their timing and intensity is at the heart of responses.

Pretty clear on Wave #1 now by Case Fatality Rate. 

Spanish Flu Global 1918/19 - 2.3%

CONVID-19 Global Today - 5% (193 of 195 countries)

China to 11 Feb - 2.3% after 65 days

UK to 15 March -  2.55% after 44 days 

UK 17 March - 3.40% after 46 days.

UK Today - 7.2% after 60 days.

Aust Today - 0.4%

Sth Korea Today - 1.7% (but very high population density)

UK Spanish Flu

ETEEY1MXQAAE6Qx.jpeg.51ab80d45c45d133d17c4c55eb2f138a.jpeg.3250eb6c68dd4c561351e850727101bc.jpeg

IMG_20200316_144909.jpg.cfcacdf58df055e9cfd495c63043fc72.jpg.c3b300a21d5324a87fe8ab58e98d6ede.jpg

I have cited the UK above on purpose as they have up until the week ending 20 March had a "containment" strategy that started to go badly wrong and U-Turned to a "suppression" strategy like that Australia instigated over a month ago and longer for testing/trace component. Even though Australia preceded the UK in first cases, today it has 3% the UK's fatalities per capita. See below.

"Herd immunity" or a "natural immunisation" involves a very high number of fatalities without any "containment" or "suppression" action and in the absence of a vaccine. Think Spanish Flu. The virus fatality rate for a country like Australia and US demographic is in the order of 665 persons per 100,000 or 2.2 million there or 180,000 here.

A "containment" strategy is low cost and will reduce fatalities but it overwhelm any health system. While high fatalities small impact on economy. Ball park fatality rate is around half that of doing nothing.

Prior to end of March think the US and UK (who have done UTurn abandoning containment) both with dated Pandemic Emergency Plans over a decade old.

A "suppression" strategy is high cost to the economy it is possible to reduce impact on health system and keep fatalities within a socially acceptable limit. Ball park fatality rate is one - tenth max of doing nothing.

Think Sth Korea (closed border with China 3 January), Singapore and slower timing Australia. No coincidence all three close to China and previous SARS experiences. Have refined Pandemic Specific Emergency Plans.

There is far greater risk attached to virus getting away with even the best suppression than over suppressing it and then being more susceptible to subsequent waves.

 

More nonsense from you.

Those death figures are entirely dependent on who and how many are tested , so they are meaningless.

This virus is nowhere near as deadly as Spanish Flu and shouldn't be compared to it. It is a reasonably bad seasonal flu that moves very quickly, hence the high infection/ death rates early on.

 

As I have repeatedly told you the only reliable figures are from the Diamond Princess where the virus achieved a 0.26% kill rate in a predominantly elderly group in close quarters.

Why not use the NZ figures. Around 800 infected and one 70 year old woman dead in a population of 4.8 million?

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2 hours ago, dorydude said:

Even the bits of your post that kind of make sense are so wrong it's ridiculous.

I have never, ever advocated "doing nothing."

Dory you say "I have never, ever advocated "doing nothing." You are dead right, but dead wrong saying anyone suggests otherwise.

However you have recommended from day one a "containment" strategy (that I explained to you exactly the definitions of "containment" and "suppression" at day one, but you ignore that).

"Containment" is exactly as you advocate, being personal hygiene, and quarantining those at risk. You have added a "hybrid" being "social distancing" borrowed from "suppression" but not extending it to workplaces and in any form of workplace.

Your position is crystal clear, so refrain from suggesting anyone says otherwise.

2 hours ago, dorydude said:

More nonsense from you.

Those death figures are entirely dependent on who and how many are tested , so they are meaningless.

Dory you say of Case Fatality Rates and so Cases: "dependent on who and how many are tested, so they are meaningless."

For current testing and veracity of those case figures sitting behind anything that relies upon you are dead right. That indicates you read my posts where I have said that countless times.

The last in a reply to you in fact yesterday where you were dead wrong about Australian cases being low by saying earllier; "Have we seen exponential growth of deaths and  infections here ? Again.....NO!"

My caveat added was this; "The caveat though is high number of tests per capita compared to some."

On 3/31/2020 at 12:41 PM, jack_sparrow said:

As for infection or cases your dead wrong. Exponential growth of cases doubling every five days and bang on global trend line per capita. The good news it has just dropped below that global trend line. Urban areas not so good. Go look it up. The caveat though is high number of tests per capita compared to some.

Then Dory you are back to your normal shitfuckery that this virus is just a "bad flu", in fact less maybe "reasonably bad seasonal flu"???

2 hours ago, dorydude said:

This virus is nowhere near as deadly as Spanish Flu and shouldn't be compared to it. It is a reasonably bad seasonal flu that moves very quickly, hence the high infection/ death rates early on.

Dory you say; "This virus is nowhere near as deadly as Spanish Flu and shouldn't be compared to it. It is a reasonably bad seasonal flu" 

Firstly the Spanish Flu (that Dunc raised) are real cases and real deaths like today, so hardly meaningless. Or are you saying world experts are wrong to use that data?

For instance Case Fatality Rates from China and Sth Korea who are both clearly through the 1st Wave after enacting suppression measures. For China quarantine an entire province of 60 million for nearly 3 months with literally shoot on sight for distancing rule breeches. Korea soft but very early and effective, world's top test/trace rate per capita and with still no hard close down of business today.

Both countries still equal to or just below the Spanish Flue rate.

Spanish Flu Global 1918/19 - 2.3%

CONVID-19 Global Today - 5% (193 of 195 countries)

China to 11 Feb - 2.3% after 65 days

Sth Korea Today - 1.7% (but very high population density)

3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

 Pretty clear on Wave #1 now by Case Fatality Rate. 

Spanish Flu Global 1918/19 - 2.3%

CONVID-19 Global Today - 5% (193 of 195 countries)

China to 11 Feb - 2.3% after 65 days

Sth Korea Today - 1.7% (but very high population density)

So Dory you don't accept anything anymore even if factual and you reply to posts simply ignoring what's said if it collides with your narrative. That indicates you have actually forgotten what you own narrative is.

To remind you it was you are opposed to the "shut-down" on the basis of the economic imperitive being placed second fiddle to saving lives. That's fine, there are probably millions like you. There are MSM pundits repeating that. Again fine.

But Dory they like you they have not articulated and in your case posted any detailed opinion or data here on what is being sacrificed economically. NOTHING - ZIP. That is when you lost me.

Instead you have elected to go the "cheap lazy card" of making shit up that the threat is blown out of proportion. It is just the flu. You have plumbed the lowest depth so far I have come across coming on here and saying that up to 99.2% of virus deaths in Italy was caused by existing ailments. WTF.

Dory I will leave you with this as you clearly are an intelligent albeit arguably misguided man. All you are doing is giving oxygen to those lower down the food chain and whose actions I'm sure you regard as abhorrent that are murdering the social fabric of the country courtesy of this virus.

Take stock mate and rethink the narrative you are spreading. Your misguided opinion is just like a virus. It multiplies exponentially and is being misused by fuckwits.

Road Graffiti outside Asian family home 'death to dog eaters' - Epping Sydney Australia - a suburb with a large Asian population.

26627008-8171225-image-a-24_1585650476675.jpg

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8 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Dory you say "I have never, ever advocated "doing nothing." You are dead right, but dead wrong saying anyone suggests otherwise.

However you have recommended from day one a "containment" strategy (that I explained to you exactly the definitions of "containment" and "suppression" at day one, but you ignore that).

"Containment" is exactly as you advocate, being personal hygiene, and quarantining those at risk. You have added a "hybrid" being "social distancing" borrowed from "suppression" but not extending it to workplaces and in any form of workplace.

Your position is crystal clear, so refrain from suggesting anyone says otherwise.

Dory you say of Case Fatality Rates and so Cases: "dependent on who and how many are tested, so they are meaningless."

For current testing and veracity of those case figures sitting behind anything that relies upon you are dead right. That indicates you read my posts where I have said that countless times.

The last in a reply to you in fact yesterday where you were dead wrong about Australian cases being low by saying earllier; "Have we seen exponential growth of deaths and  infections here ? Again.....NO!"

My caveat added was this; "The caveat though is high number of tests per capita compared to some."

Then Dory you are back to your normal shitfuckery that this virus is just a "bad flu", in fact less maybe "reasonably bad seasonal flu"???

Dory you say; "This virus is nowhere near as deadly as Spanish Flu and shouldn't be compared to it. It is a reasonably bad seasonal flu" 

Firstly the Spanish Flu (that Dunc raised) are real cases and real deaths like today, so hardly meaningless. Or are you saying world experts are wrong to use that data?

For instance Case Fatality Rates from China and Sth Korea who are both clearly through the 1st Wave after enacting suppression measures. For China quarantine an entire province of 60 million for nearly 3 months with literally shoot on sight for distancing rule breeches. Korea soft but very early and effective, world's top test/trace rate per capita and with still no hard close down of business today.

Both countries still equal to or just below the Spanish Flue rate.

Spanish Flu Global 1918/19 - 2.3%

CONVID-19 Global Today - 5% (193 of 195 countries)

China to 11 Feb - 2.3% after 65 days

Sth Korea Today - 1.7% (but very high population density)

So Dory you don't accept anything anymore even if factual and you reply to posts simply ignoring what's said if it collides with your narrative. That indicates you have actually forgotten what you own narrative is.

To remind you it was you are opposed to the "shut-down" on the basis of the economic imperitive being placed second fiddle to saving lives. That's fine, there are probably millions like you. There are MSM pundits repeating that. Again fine.

But Dory they like you they have not articulated and in your case posted any detailed opinion or data here on what is being sacrificed economically. NOTHING - ZIP. That is when you lost me.

Instead you have elected to go the "cheap lazy card" of making shit up that the threat is blown out of proportion. It is just the flu. You have plumbed the lowest depth so far I have come across coming on here and saying that up to 99.2% of virus deaths in Italy was caused by existing ailments. WTF.

Dory I will leave you with this as you clearly are an intelligent albeit arguably misguided man. All you are doing is giving oxygen to those lower down the food chain and whose actions I'm sure you regard as abhorrent that are murdering the social fabric of the country courtesy of this virus.

Take stock mate and rethink the narrative you are spreading. Your misguided opinion is just like a virus. It multiplies exponentially and is being misused by fuckwits.

Road Graffiti outside Asian family home 'death to dog eaters' - Epping Sydney Australia - a suburb with a large Asian population.

26627008-8171225-image-a-24_1585650476675.jpg

WTF?

You admit that the case fatality rates are suspect and then quote the nonsensical 2.3% figure from China when we all know that they struggled to get enough test kits. We also know that the testing results in high false positives with other flu viruses registering as Covid-19.

Do you find it strange that all the other flu strains that have been circulating the globe for so many years have all suddenly vanished and are no longer killing or infecting anyone? Some of us think it is very odd.

It is people like you who are spreading the "Wuhan flu will kill us all" hysteria with your BS death rates who are motivating the numbskulls  responsible for  that graffiti. They are just stupid and scared and want to blame someone.

My concern is the breakdown of our economy and way of life on a possibly exaggerated threat.

Have you noticed how much Australia is borrowing?

Have you considered how it will be paid back and who will do it?

The big international banks have created  $trillions out of thin air which will have to be paid back with real money and assets, and it is our children and grandchildren who will be paying it.

Want GST at 20 -30%?

How about Death Duties?  They have been lingering in the background for a while. Does 90% sound reasonable rate? Of course there will be Gift Taxes to stop you giving stuff away earlier .

The government will be busy on a raft of new taxes and levies just to pay for a few months of insanity over a perceived threat that has been evaluated using incomplete data and hysterical predictions.

 

 

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3 hours ago, dorydude said:

Do you find it strange that all the other flu strains that have been circulating the globe for so many years have all suddenly vanished and are no longer killing or infecting anyone?

No, they haven't "suddenly vanished", which is why there is now a big focus on getting people vaccinated for the coming flu season and Australia has procured 13 million doses of vaccine already.

Seasonal flu is bad, but I don't remember seeing 1,000 bed emergency hospitals being setup in major cities around the world, or semi–trailer loads of bodies piling up outside hospitals as a result of seasonal flu.

The hospital ship sent to NY is there to treat patients without Covid-19 because the hospitals are overrun. People are still dying of other causes, and probably in greater numbers because of health systems being overrun with Covid-19 cases.

The USS Theodore Roosevelt has a serious Covid-19 outbreak and could have made use that hospital ship, but it can't because it's being used for civilians. Now Guam (already in the grip of a serious outbreak) is caught in a dilemma of whether to help the ship and further risking its own community, or leave the ship stranded and let the outbreak take its course, which will undoubtably have worse consequences for the 5,000 people on board.

Ask them whether they're more concerned about seasonal flu or Covid-19 right now.

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4 hours ago, dorydude said:

You admit that the case fatality rates are suspect and then quote the nonsensical 2.3% figure from China when we all know that they struggled to get enough test kits. We also know that the testing results in high false positives with other flu viruses registering as Covid-19.

So deaths ceasing to rise you don't accept even in Korea.

Check.

12 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

So Dory you don't accept anything anymore even if factual...

 

4 hours ago, dorydude said:

Do you find it strange that all the other flu strains that have been circulating the globe for so many years have all suddenly vanished and are no longer killing or infecting anyone? Some of us think it is very odd.

Yes "herd immunisation" very effective BUT where lots of people have to die first in the absence of a vaccine. They are culled from the 20% mob that the virus has chosen need treatment but they don't get it because health care has been crashed. A quarter of those needing ICU will be under 50 yo and die without it.

Meanwhile the 80% lucky suckers get naturally immunised.

Whose "us" who subscribe to this theory Dory??? Guarantee not one is from the health care industry. Make note, Dory will nominate his chiropractor.

4 hours ago, dorydude said:

...with your BS death rates ...

So actual deaths ceasing to rise in number you don't accept. Yep that's twice now. Wish you would stop banging on.

4 hours ago, dorydude said:

My concern is the breakdown of our economy and way of life on a possibly exaggerated threat....

Hold the phone.."possibly exaggerated threat" Have we got a row back happening? Nah slip of the finger.

Yep got that. I reminded you don't you remember.

12 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

That indicates you have actually forgotten what you own narrative is.

To remind you it was you are opposed to the "shut-down" on the basis of the economic imperitive being placed second fiddle to saving lives.

 

4 hours ago, dorydude said:

Have you noticed how much Australia is borrowing?

Have you considered how it will be paid back and who will do it?

The big international banks have created  $trillions out of thin air which will have to be paid back with real money and assets, and it is our children and grandchildren who will be paying it.

Want GST at 20 -30%?

How about Death Duties?  They have been lingering in the background for a while. Does 90% sound reasonable rate? Of course there will be Gift Taxes to stop you giving stuff away earlier .

So a short summary from a detailed economic impact assessment, both with and without the Governments virus suppression to make a comparison?? No. In your mind just the word "$ trillions" suffices. That's it?? Body bags don't count but some economic quantum called $ trillions does.

Yes got that. Check

12 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

That's fine, there are probably millions like you. There are MSM pundits repeating that. Again fine.

But Dory they like you they have not articulated and in your case posted any detailed opinion or data here on what is being sacrificed economically. NOTHING - ZIP

 

4 hours ago, dorydude said:

....insanity over a perceived threat that has  been evaluated using incomplete data and hysterical predictions .

 That's not bad Dude you have got them both sounding the same. That is some skill.

"So the insanity over perceived economic outcomes that have been evaluated using no data and hysterical predictions."

Anyway already got that one.

12 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

...posted any detailed opinion or data here on what is being sacrificed economically. NOTHING - ZIP.

Dory I don't know why you went to the trouble of posting. Should have just copied mine and added your name.

Only one I didn't get was this cracker. This is a shrinks dream.

4 hours ago, dorydude said:

It is people like you who are spreading the "Wuhan flu will kill us all" hysteria with your BS death rates who are motivating the numbskulls responsible responsible for that graffiti.

So I'm now;

- Calling Coranavirus "Wuhan Flu"

- Saying it will kill us all; and 

- Inciting racists cunts to graffiti the streets.

Psychologist's must have some term with a really long unpronounceable name to describe people who look at others but only see themselves. 

Man you really have issues.

You also really need to be dragged to an ICU by the nuts and made to watch a virus patient pre ventilation.

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20 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

So deaths ceasing to rise you don't accept even in Korea.

Check.

 

Yes the "herd immunisation" very effective BUT where lots of people have to die first in the absence of a vaccine. They are culled from the 20% mob that the virus has chosen need treatment but they don't get it because health care has been crashed. A quarter of those needing ICU will be under 50 yo and die without it.

Meanwhile the 80% lucky suckers get naturally immunised.

Whose "us" who subscribe to this Dory??? Guarantee not one is from the health care industry. Make note, Dory will nominate his chiropractor.

So actual deaths ceasing to rise in number you don't accept. Yep that's twice now. Wish you would stop banging on.

Yep got that. I reminded you don't you remember.

 

So a short summary from a detailed economic impact assessment, both with and without the Governments virus suppression to make a comparison?? No. In your mind just the word "$ trillions" suffices. That's it?? Body bags don't count but some economic quantum called $ trillions does.

Yes got that. Check

 

 That's not bad Dude you have got them both sounding the same. That is some skill.

"So the insanity over perceived economic outcomes that have been evaluated using no data and hysterical predictions."

Anyway already got that one.

Dory I don't know why you went to the trouble of posting. Should have just copied mine and added your name.

Only one I didn't get was this cracker. This is a shrinks dream.

So I'm now;

- Calling Coranavirus "Wuhan Flu"

- Saying it will kill us all; and 

- Inciting racists cunts to graffiti the streets.

Psychologist's must have some term with a really long unpronounceable name to describe people who look at others but only see themselves. 

Man you really have issues.

Nice rant.

We know your stance on this is purely selfish. Mine isn't.

You still don't understand that this virus has a kill rate that is not out of the ordinary based on the limited data we have.

Of course you would prefer to trumpet Italian data and ignore the Australian/ NZ data as it is nowhere near as sensationalist.

Have it your way. Save a few elderly and sick people from dying a few months prematurely by destroying everyone else's lives.

 

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3 hours ago, RobG said:

No, they haven't "suddenly vanished", which is why there is now a big focus on getting people vaccinated for the coming flu season and Australia has procured 13 million doses of vaccine already.

 

Yer , yer and pigs fly.

Most Australians don't bother.

A big re-education program or legislation may change it.

From memory only around 50% of health workers bother.

Why you ask.....

 recent studies show that flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are well-matched to the flu vaccine.

 

Taking  special note of .........." when......flu viruses are well-matched to the flu vaccine."

Hence...

However, of those who have not had a shot, there is little expectation that they will now get a shot this season. Just 15% of those not yet vaccinated thought that it was even somewhat likely that they would still get a shot C7. There were two common reasons why people didn’t have a flu shot this season. 38% of those who hadn’t said something along the lines of I’m healthy / I don’t think I need it / I’m not around people with the flu. Another 22% said that they never got around to it / it wasn’t convenient / they forgot, with this being most common for 18-34 year olds C6. Looking specifically at the over 50s who didn’t have a flu shot, between 5%-7% said each of: Don’t like / believe in vaccinations; don’t believe they work; the flu shot gives you flu; and not liking needles.

 

 

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Ironically my GP hates needles.  She tells me (guiltily) she always puts off getting the flu vac for weeks until she has a string of sick people and then the first gap she gets (usually lunch time) gives herself the needle.

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Hey Jack,

Have you any figures on how the American lack of free/ subsidised/affordable  healthcare affects the general health of the population,

hence their susceptibility to virulent viruses like c-19

 

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34 minutes ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Yer , yer and pigs fly.

non sequitur in response to the Aus government procuring flu vaccine doses. Or are you saying information posted on the Federal Minister for Health's web page regarding procurement of 13 million flu vaccine doses is "fake news"?

Quote

Most Australians don't bother.

So when the Federal Minister for Health says in a 2019 interview "Two years ago, eight million Australians were vaccinated. Now, it's likely to reach 13 million this year" you're calling BS? With no references?

13 million non–vaccinations is about half the population, hardly "most". And doesn't count the people who've previously been vaccinated and still have significant immunity (like me). I don't always get a vaccination as I've never been particularly sick with flu so I'm usually not that motivated (I suspect a lot of the non–vaccinators have the same attitude). But I will get one this year, and everyone I know is pretty keen to get one too.

PS. I am well aware (as I think is everyone) that a flu vaccination won't prevent me getting Covid-19 (or even seasonal flu), but it will give me a good chance that if I do catch it, I won't be simultaneously fighting the flu and can recover with minimal discomfort and medical intervention, hopefully just a few over–the–counter symptom relieving drugs in home isolation.

Quote

Stuff about flu vaccines that has nothing to do with Covid-19.

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1 hour ago, dorydude said:

Nice rant.

Of course you would prefer to trumpet Italian data and ignore the Australian/ NZ data as it is nowhere near as sensationalist....

 

Yes it was good. I really like where you said this; "So the insanity over perceived economic outcomes that have been evaluated using no data and hysterical predictions." 

Ignore Australian data I post it all the time. Wrong.

I reference Italian data? Wrong. Never referenced it. Don't even reference Italy except maybe a date or to correct someone. Go look. 

Dory you are getting confused about yourself. You have a huge hard using Italian data to support your theory the only people at risk are the old and unhealthy.

I also corrected your greatest bit of Italian shitfuckery claiming up to 99.2% of Italy's deaths was due to other causes. You then went very silent and as per usual didn't answer the question. Are you a politician? 

Dory do you just make shit up because that's all you have and your now desperate?? Running low on fuel so go the bullshit???

Mate it ain't cutting the mustard.

On 3/31/2020 at 5:34 AM, dorydude said:

However, a recent analysis of the deaths in Italy shows that only a small fraction were entirely due to Covid-19, occurring in people with no co-morbidities (3 out of 355; 0.8 per cent). Many deaths were hastily labelled as Covid-19 related when they were not.

 

On 3/31/2020 at 10:19 AM, jack_sparrow said:

Dory you say there that it could be 99.2% of Italy's 11,000 deaths are not entirely due to the virus, only 0.8% or 880 of them.

So that means of the 61 Italian medical worker fatalities, only 5 may be solely due to the virus. The Italian‌ ‌Federation‌ ‌of‌ ‌Medical‌ ‌Professional‌ ‌Associations said nothing about that. ‌

What was the cause of death of the remaining 56 medical workers? Heart attacks, fat pricks, really old nurses, got run over by a bus on the way to work or stress then topped themselves etc??

Would be really interesting to know?

 

On 3/29/2020 at 8:03 AM, dorydude said:

.....Italy is not differentiating between people who die BECAUSE of Covid-19 and those who die WITH it. Huge difference as most of the dead were very old or already terminally ill. I assume other places are doing the same..

 

On 3/28/2020 at 6:01 PM, dorydude said:

...He also notes that„ Italy is known for its enormous morbidity in respiratory problems, more than three times any other European country.“

 

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26 minutes ago, RobG said:

Stuff about flu vaccines that has nothing to do with Covid-19.

The old trick of say a lie often enough it then becomes the truth. Trump calls it the flu all the time.

The only exception where that technique didn't work was poor Bills; "I didn't have sex with that woman"

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59 minutes ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Hey Jack,

Have you any figures on how the American lack of free/ subsidised/affordable  healthcare affects the general health of the population,

hence their susceptibility to virulent viruses like c-19

 

Not interested as irelevant in the scheme of things and infections don't descriminate. I did post upthread comparative flu fatality rates per capita where Aust and US on par, US slightly less susceptible.

You don't seem to get it is absence of treatment to young and old that is the killer not the virus.

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