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2 hours ago, LB 15 said:

Hard to recall exactly what boat it was when you have sailed on as many Maxis as I have

Not exactly an impressive boast. Shit, even I have sailed on a Maxi

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3 hours ago, LB 15 said:

Ah yes those were the days - But i think it was Condor. Hard to recall exactly what boat it was when you have sailed on as many Maxis as I have - but you wankers who hang around this shit stained masturbating monkey pit will never know.

condor-group-photo-870-522-80-s-c1.jpg

which one are you?  I hope you bought your cutest bikini. 

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3 hours ago, LB 15 said:

I do miss Dabs - I was going to look him up when I was in HK last year but i decided to stay at the hotel and drive a blunt knife into my ball sack instead.

Pretty hard to find him. The Government moved on long ago those people squatting under that HK freeway off-ramp.

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1 hour ago, The Dark Knight said:

Not exactly an impressive boast. Shit, even I have sailed on a Maxi

Mate there is a difference between guest and crew.

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8 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

I  have the solution.

ANDREW BOLT LATEST....

 

 

Bolt is a very dangerous spruiker of bullshit, right up there with Alan Jones. Almost.

In the US, healthcare systems are unable to cope with yesterday's 25,000 new cases. In a country of 300 million people, if 25,000 are infected each day, it will take 12,000 days for everyone to be infected, that's 32 years. Clearly they can't sustain the current situation for that long.

Taking the most optimistic approach and using the Australian death rate as pretty accurate (28 ÷ 5,330 ≈ 0.5%), then US deaths of 6,058 means they might have actually had about 1.2 million cases, or about 5 times as many as are being detected or reported. Applying that to the daily increase means 125,000 new cases per day which, at a steady rate, will still take about 2,400 days or 6.6 years for "herd immunity" to take effect.

Of course cases per day won't stay at a steady 25,000 per day. Even with current attenuation efforts, cases double every 3 to 4 days. Assuming there have actually been 1.2 million cases, then in 8 doublings, or about a month, about half the US population could have the disease. With a mortality rate of 0.5%, that's 750,000 deaths (150,000,000 * 0.005). The US civil war, the most bloody and brutal war in US history, took 4 years to kill that many people. For that many to die in a month is truely unimaginable.

Maybe that's why we need to keep the lid on this until there's a vaccine, and dickheads like Bolt should be ignored.

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How much of what China has implemented to control Kung Flu should we adopt?

Mandatory masks for being in public?

Temperature testing everywhere you go those with high temp not allowed on public transport or into many places?

Temp testing at work several times a day with those serving your food recorded by name and current temp?

Phone app showing your status, green for good yellow and red?

Interesting video by a Japanese man living in China.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM

 

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16 minutes ago, Mohammed Bin Lyin said:

How much of what China has implemented to control Kung Flu should we adopt?

Looks good to me. Maybe a better system to identify overseas arrivals once they've completed quarantine, but otherwise, no issues. I go to Woolies or Coles and there's one or two security guards at the entrance (clearly for show, they don't do anything), lots of social distancing messages, wiping things down, etc.

Local pharmacy has barriers in place to keep people an extra 0.5m from the counter, X marks on the floor to keep people in queues separated, etc. Local coffee shop won't take keep–cups, everything is sold in single use containers. Won't take cash, only card, etc.

Public transport won't take cash, you have to have a stored value card to tap. Auto temperature measurement as you enter would be great (I wish it was there all the time).

So we're already half way there, just add in the temperature stuff and phone app (there are plenty already that can track everywhere you go) and you're done. Movement track only needs to be checked if you test positive, so not that invasive. :-)

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2 hours ago, RobG said:

Assuming there have actually been 1.2 million cases, then in 8 doublings, or about a month, about half the US population could have the disease. With a mortality rate of 0.5%, that's 750,000 deaths (150,000,000 * 0.005). The US civil war, the most bloody and brutal war in US history, took 4 years to kill that many people. For that many to die in a month is truely unimaginable.

US with original containment strategy the number was north of 1 million (do nothing 2.2 million). With suppression they have it in a 100K to 200K range. That's a few Vietnam or Korean Wars.

EUUdwrWXgAA63iy.thumb.jpeg.b43b1f2f1f3e08d1845e970996892a74.jpeg

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3 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

he didn't specify... :D

Didn't have to. Era of racing not afterlife with paying guests... as you?? As for him fashioning a sextant out of a Windex I'm pretty sure that bit was stretching the truth...lots of maxis was total bullshit.

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5 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Didn't have to. Era of racing not afterlife with paying guests... as you?? As for him fashioning a sextant out of a Windex I'm pretty sure that bit was stretching the truth...lots of maxis was total bullshit.

WTF? It is all in 'The adventures of Chas from Tas' volume 21. You shit stained masturbating monkeys will never understand.

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12 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Didn't have to. Era of racing not afterlife with paying guests... as you?? As for him fashioning a sextant out of a Windex I'm pretty sure that bit was stretching the truth...lots of maxis was total bullshit.

Lighten up Jack, you take every comment here too seriously.

Get outside and breath in some fresh air...

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4 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

Lighten up Jack, you take every comment here too seriously.

Get outside and breath in some fresh air...

In the serious department I'm on the boat more worried I'm going to run out of piss.

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12 hours ago, LB 15 said:

WTF? It is all in 'The adventures of Chas from Tas' volume 21. You shit stained masturbating monkeys will never understand.

Ahh yes LB the chapter where you describe fashioning an AIS out of a Sony Walkman to avoid pirates in the Sth China Sea...20 years before AIS was invented. Those instructions a must have for any serious blue water adventurer today.

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18 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

US with original containment strategy the number was north of 1 million (do nothing 2.2 million). With suppression they have it in a 100K to 200K range. That's a few Vietnam or Korean Wars.

EUUdwrWXgAA63iy.thumb.jpeg.b43b1f2f1f3e08d1845e970996892a74.jpeg

So Americans are really best at killing other Americans?    

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2 hours ago, shaggybaxter said:

So Americans are really best at killing other Americans?    

Sort of.

I know it may come as a surprise to some but Covid-19 isn't the only killer of Americans.

Each  day approximately 8000 americans die. 2,813,503  in 2017.

In Australia 160,000 died in 2017 for example.

https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/life-expectancy-death/deaths-in-australia/contents/age-at-death

C-19 tally in Australia is what ?? 30.

Tragedy.

But life is dangerous

Just saying.

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36 minutes ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

C-19 tally in Australia is what ?? 30.

Tragedy.

But life is dangerous

Just saying.

Saying just enough more like it just to suit your storyline.

8 Cunts you never say why Aust fatality rate is so low on a world per capita basis versus it having a case rate per capita just below the world mean? Those Aust rates are higher for urban areas. Nor do you mention current rates and date compared to expected peak date?

Does it fuck up your story?

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6 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

Lighten up Jack, you take every comment here too seriously.

Get outside and breath in some fresh air...

 

BE9FC67D-7829-4D29-9DEC-F2F419E22D92.jpeg

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^^^^^Mad go out... these silly cunts in NY did with NY hospitals currently bursting at the seams.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Saying just enough more like it just to suit your storyline.

8 Cunts you never say why Aust fatality rate is so low on a world per capita basis versus it having a case rate per capita just below the world mean? Those Aust rates are higher for urban areas. Nor do you mention current rates and date compared to expected peak date?

Does it fuck up your story?

Nah.

It gets you biting.

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4 minutes ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Nah.

It gets you biting.

Nah 8 Cunts your not throwing a hook....you haven't a fucking clue what's going on and don't want to know unless Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones tell you so you can repeat it here as you do.

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

Nah 8 Cunts your not throwing a hook....you haven't a fucking clue what's going on and don't want to know unless Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones tell you so you can repeat it here as you do.

What do you mean Wacko.

FOX NEWS advertisement says.....

 

"REAL NEWS WHEN YOU NEED IT MOST"

;)

If we took any notice of your verbiage then I'd suspect we need it MOST.

PS

Got another feed of prawns today whilst exercising.

 

Yummo.

 

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5 minutes ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

What do you mean Wacko.

FOX NEWS advertisement says.....

"REAL NEWS WHEN YOU NEED IT MOST"

Exactly you really need that Fox "real news" the most, not other news.

Now you are joining the dots and there I was thinking you were just thick.

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11 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Got another feed of prawns today whilst exercising.

Well if the 'Flu' doesn't get you we can only hope white spot does. Now back to you bullshit about being at Canipia - pray tell are your imaginary walks on Stradbroke Island still happening? You know the Island is closed right- or didn't news that come up in your google search from New Zealand?

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2 hours ago, LB 15 said:

Well if the 'Flu' doesn't get you we can only hope white spot does. Now back to you bullshit about being at Canipia - pray tell are your imaginary walks on Stradbroke Island still happening? You know the Island is closed right- or didn't news that come up in your google search from New Zealand?

The STAY AT HOME message must have passed its use-by date.

Approximately 20+ boats have spent the week-end near the RQYS annexe.

You really are starting to look like an angry little goose.

Your Paranoia doesn't seem to be abating.

Bit of a thunder and lightening show last night.

Lovely still morning now.

Kids have already been ashore for a swing on the Rope Hanging over the water , as its a nice high tide.

BWAHAHAHA.

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On 4/3/2020 at 12:49 PM, jack_sparrow said:

If Octopus and Dory were Scomo's epidemiology advisors you would be spending May/June making body bags out of old sails and making a fortune. I think that was Dory's original plan.

Some posts don't age that well.

- Sail lofts are now filling body bag orders. The one in pic is in Hamble UK.

On 3/28/2020 at 4:37 PM, dorydude said:

 All along I have stated that "at risk" groups  should be identified, informed and protected if necessary. I haven't suggested sacrificing anyone.  

You are losing sight of the fact that this is just a bad flu.

On 4/3/2020 at 1:13 PM, MRS OCTOPUS said:

“This virus now looks much less deadly than feared, and is highly selective, killing mostly the old – often people already close to death.

So Dory and Albatros only isolating those at risk like old people and everyone else carry on will work. It's only the flu.

UK is already triaging old people out before even hitting hospitals, to free up ICU beds for younger people who are dieing.

In one nursing home where around 20 died not allowed out the front door, didn't even make it on the official death count that comes from hospital data.

So Dory and Albatros you checked out the ICU bed count at you local hospital yet?

On 3/28/2020 at 6:53 PM, dorydude said:

Why do you keep banging on about ICU beds? 

 

FB_IMG_1586041684661.jpg

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2 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

The STAY AT HOME message must have passed its use-by date.

Approximately 20+ boats have spent the week-end near the RQYS annexe.

You really are starting to look like an angry little goose.

Your Paranoia doesn't seem to be abating.

Bit of a thunder and lightening show last night.

Lovely still morning now.

Kids have already been ashore for a swing on the Rope Hanging over the water , as its a nice high tide.

BWAHAHAHA.

You have children now in this fantasy? Lucky for them they are imaginary.

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4 hours ago, LB 15 said:

You have children now in this fantasy? Lucky for them they are imaginary.

Ha  thats funny.

I know you have comprehension problems.

But WTF (where T F ) did I say they were mine?

PS.

Marine Safety came through this morning after our little chat.

Really nice guys.

Told every one there is now a 100Meter exclusion zone around North Straddy.

I notice that message doesn't seem to be getting through either.

No sooner had they departed than the Jet skiers with picnic baskets arrived.

The rules are changing so fast people are struggling to keep up.

 

 

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1 minute ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

...Marine Safety came through this morning after our little chat.

Really nice guys.

Told every one there is now a 100Meter exclusion zone around North Straddy.

I notice that message doesn't seem to be getting through either.

No sooner had they departed than the Jet skiers with picnic baskets arrived.

So 8 Cunts assume you are inviting them over for drinks/joining them on the beach telling them it's only a bad case of the flu and 80% of people don't need treatment. 

Don't forget to post pics.

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On 4/3/2020 at 7:41 PM, Mohammed Bin Lyin said:

How much of what China has implemented to control Kung Flu should we adopt?

Mandatory masks for being in public?

Temperature testing everywhere you go those with high temp not allowed on public transport or into many places?

Temp testing at work several times a day with those serving your food recorded by name and current temp?

Phone app showing your status, green for good yellow and red?

Interesting video by a Japanese man living in China.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM

 

Depends how much you actually want to control this pandemic and stop its spread. For over a week now there has only been 1 or 2 locally infected new cases here. The thing that amazes me is how much lassitude some countries have shown in getting to grips with this.

Masks have been worn by many Asians for years when they have a cold or cough

As a fever is one of the early indicators of the virus, temperature testing is nothing more than common sense. For years when you entered HK or Mainland China there is automatic temperature streaming, ever since the likes of SARS.

All precautions should be taken - if you don't you are nuts.

China is currently the safest place in the world to be. Every time they find someone who is positive and take them out of circulation that is one less person that can infect me.(or anyone else) 

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

So 8 Cunts assume you are inviting them over for drinks/joining them on the beach telling them it's only a bad case of the flu and 80% of people don't need treatment. 

Don't forget to post pics.

Ha, Wacko , love the way you take anarchy so seriously.

Sounds like you have run out of socks to argue with.

Until the oracle ( Andy Bolt) cast some more pearls of wisdom before us, I got nutt'n .

I would love to post pics, but with your mate  Little Boy, now stalking big time

It would be a risky move.

Lets wait until he calms down a little.

He"s probably still suffering CHRONIC BUTT HURT from the self inflicted RQYS affair.

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WTF The NSW Government is a pack of fucking cowards trying to deflect blame from their own incompetence..

 

New South Wales Police say the operators of the Ruby Princess cruise ship will face a criminal investigation after a number of passengers died from coronavirus.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/criminal-investigation-launched-into-ruby-princess-fiasco-20200405-p54h9f.html

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

So 8 Cunts assume you are inviting them over for drinks/joining them on the beach telling them it's only a bad case of the flu and 80% of people don't need treatment. 

Don't forget to post pics.

Some people are starting to wake up now the panic has subsided..

 

"

As for the more seasoned and cynical in the world, they might say wiping out the entire global economy – with all the future deaths and misery that will inevitably follow – is perhaps an overreaction to a virus that is bad and deadly but far from the worst or deadliest thing facing the world at the moment.

By way of example, the death rate of corona at the time of writing was over 50,000. By contrast, almost 10 million people die of cancer each year – 70 per cent in low- to middle-income countries – according to the World Health Organisation. Heart disease kills 18 million.

And the vast majority of coronavirus deaths are people already suffering from cancer or heart disease or some other medical condition. In many cases it is actually this condition that is the major contributing factor to their death, even though it is counted as a coronavirus fatality. And in Italy, the worst hit country, the average age of death is almost 80."

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/joe-hildebrand-on-the-weeks-most-disgraceful-coronavirus-ban/news-story/1d67f5c9b101bbb49417fd91bd263142

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32 minutes ago, dorydude said:

Some people are starting to wake up now the panic has subsided..

Dory you do love being selective spreading your "it's only a bad flu" shitfuckery.

You missed the author saying this bit.

" I completely understand and support the need to manage the rise in coronavirus cases to stop the hospital system from being overrun. If that should happen, we will go from the unhappy tally of inevitable deaths to the more tragic count of avoidable ones."

Keep up the good work Dory. You started out a week ago as only an idiot. 

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2 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Ha, Wacko , love the way you take anarchy so seriously.

Yes it's odd isn't it that I take moving beyond inevitable deaths to avoidable deaths as being a very serious subject. Must be something in the water.

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12 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Dory you do love being selective spreading your "it's only a bad flu" shitfuckery.

You missed the author saying this bit.

" I completely understand and support the need to manage the rise in coronavirus cases to stop the hospital system from being overrun. If that should happen, we will go from the unhappy tally of inevitable deaths to the more tragic count of avoidable ones."

Keep up the good work Dory. You started out a week ago as only an idiot. 

You really are a dumbass.

 

How many times do you need to be told that I agree that identifying and protecting the vulnerable is the thing to do???

Trashing the economy is not. 

The hospitals in some places are being over run by people who were already elderly and/or pretty damn sick.

In the rest of the world, fuck all is happening.

The footage from Italy, New York etc is great  for TV ratings -  pure disaster porn, but the reality is that these are isolated areas. Most hospitals around the world are doing fuck all.  

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4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

 assume you are inviting them over for drinks/joining them on the beach telling them it's only a bad case of the flu and 80% of people don't need treatment. 

 

Jeesus Wacko, you have changed your tune.

Thanks for pointing that out Dory.

Wacko,  that is a NASTY thing to suggest we do.

This Virus is deadly and we are isolating for very good reasons.

So Wacko have you checked out the ICU bed count at you local hospital yet?

Just  repeat'n.

 

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41 minutes ago, dorydude said:

You really are a dumbass.

 How many times do you need to be told that I agree that identifying and protecting the vulnerable is the thing to do???... 

...In the rest of the world, fuck all is happening...

..Most hospitals around the world are doing fuck all .

Dory you keep repeating the same lies.

Again no-one has said you don't concur to putting those at risk in isolation and even distancing outside the workplace. 

Again you just said on another thread 5 minutes ago that up to a million people die of the flu. This is despite being repeatabley given linked WHO estimates of 290,000 to 650,000.

Now you say: "In the rest of the world, fuck all is happening". ."most hospitals around the world are doing fuck all."

Do you lie for a living??

On 4/1/2020 at 3:57 PM, jack_sparrow said:

The WHO estimates that between 290,000 and 650,000 respiratory deaths globally each year are associated with seasonal influenza.

 

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32 minutes ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

So Wacko have you checked out the ICU bed count at you local hospital yet?

Just  repeat'n.

Don't need to for me. I would only get admitted in next fortnight max. After that low immunity and age will mean I'm prioritised no ICU.

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39 minutes ago, dorydude said:

In the rest of the world, fuck all is happening.

Most hospitals around the world are doing fuck all

Bookmarked for the CONVID-19 Museum.

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Don't need to for me. I would only get admitted in next fortnight max. After that low immunity and age will mean I'm prioritised no ICU.

Stay safe Jack

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46 minutes ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Stay safe Jack

Thanks  Not much more I can do, it is now up to other cunts, where some are dumb cunts. I also happen to have a very low immunity to the opinions of the dumb variety.

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5 hours ago, shanghaisailor said:

As a fever is one of the early indicators of the virus, temperature testing is nothing more than common sense. For years when you entered HK or Mainland China there is automatic temperature streaming, ever since the likes of SARS.

^^^^^^ This. Check your temp daily, twice if at risk. Goes north that means a test, hospital visit ready to launch if you are in the 20% hospitalisation of the 80/20 cases BUT low probability you won't need an ICU that is chocka block being quick out of the blocks with your self temp testing.

Heathrow and JFK two of the largest airports in the world ...guess what they have for temperature screening today 3 months down the line?? At best a rubber glove up the arse if they think you are carrying Peruvian Marching Powder. 

Then go look at who the two countries are now battling it out in the Coronavirus Cup for the podium.

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1 hour ago, jack_sparrow said:

^^^^^^ This. Check your temp daily, twice if at risk. Goes north that means a test, hospital visit ready to launch if you are in the 20% hospitalisation of the 80/20 cases BUT low probability you won't need an ICU that is chocka block being quick out of the blocks with your self temp testing.

Heathrow and JFK two of the largest airports in the world ...guess what they have for temperature screening today 3 months down the line?? At best a rubber glove up the arse if they think you are carrying Peruvian Marching Powder. 

Then go look at who the two countries are now battling it out in the Coronavirus Cup for the podium.

Only twice Jack :-)

For the last x weeks if i go to get the groceries i get temperature checked driving into the mall car park; i get temperature checked waking into the supermarket and then i get temperature checked when i drive back into my residential compound. 

You are so right about this and surely a basic difference between what has happened here in China and now happening in the US & UK is that they took it seriosu once they knew what they had on their hands. The US, for example knew about this on Han 3 and after their administration went through stuff like "it is under control' or 'it will go away' they are now warning that 'over the next two weeks there will be a lot of deaths' while here with a population of 1.4 Bn there were 5 +ve tests yesterday. Nobody's fault except their own.

Why can't they see that you cannot pussy foot around with this thing.

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7 hours ago, shanghaisailor said:
On 4/3/2020 at 10:41 PM, Mohammed Bin Lyin said:

How much of what China has implemented to control Kung Flu should we adopt?

Mandatory masks for being in public?

Temperature testing everywhere you go those with high temp not allowed on public transport or into many places?

Temp testing at work several times a day with those serving your food recorded by name and current temp?

Phone app showing your status, green for good yellow and red?

Interesting video by a Japanese man living in China.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM

 

Depends how much you actually want to control this pandemic and stop its spread. For over a week now there has only been 1 or 2 locally infected new cases here. The thing that amazes me is how much lassitude some countries have shown in getting to grips with this.

Masks have been worn by many Asians for years when they have a cold or cough

As a fever is one of the early indicators of the virus, temperature testing is nothing more than common sense. For years when you entered HK or Mainland China there is automatic temperature streaming, ever since the likes of SARS.

All precautions should be taken - if you don't you are nuts.

 We have a Thai restaurant in town the staff started wearing masks then a few locals asked if they were sick so they took them off. I told them to put them back on and if anyone questions it just say "We value our customers we want you to keep coming back so we take every precaution we can to ensure your safety".

We could do all of that listed apart from the phone app people might whinge about that for privacy reasons.

Any other suggestions on what we should be doing that wasn't shown in video?

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2 hours ago, shanghaisailor said:

Only twice Jack :-)

Twice a day is fine. The lag time between getting tested and hospitalised is the critical path.

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3 hours ago, shanghaisailor said:

...You are so right about this and surely a basic difference between what has happened here in China and now happening in the US & UK is that they took it seriosu once they knew what they had on their hands...

Why can't they see that you cannot pussy foot around with this thing.

No Shang far worse than slow to act.  Populist administrations persevering with Pandemic Emergency Plans that were never going to cut the mustard but they resisted the alternative of unpopular and costly responses until far too late.

UK Govt Response 

Do nothing for a month (from the 1st 100 global cases escaping China reported as at 1 February) to 29 Feb, then wash hands for two weeks, advise at end of 2 weeks (13 March) symptoms and isolation of those at risk, then 2 working days later on 16 March Govt suddenly shit their pants realising they got it wrong using a "mitigation" populist political strategy, science steps in and start a "suppression" strategy in following week commencing 23 March.

That has gone to shit because national Pandemic Emergency Plan (failed a test in 2016 but never remedied) only ever contemplated a "mitigation" strategy with higher loss of life, not a "suppression" strategy with lower loss of life but with more economic pain employed after 16 March. Aka today shambolic testing program and medical equipment shortages etc.

Note dates of following clips re the above Timeline.

 

USA - Where do you start? 

Much the same as the UK re Timeline but with a total fruitcake running the show. POTUS statements 25/26/27 February then 9 March are standouts.

ET4fFUiUMAALAFB.thumb.jpeg.c2706d0cfd62a8aff770b1bc24e59398.jpeg

Hence the two leaders in the Coronavirus Cup looking to get a podium place, the UK on a per capita basis or handicap not line honours winner (far more relevant for comparisons not shown here) the bookmakers favourite. Peak projected June.

Daily Fatality Rates (US normally 100 deaths per day for the flu)

EUvqE1uXkAASIwM.jpeg

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3 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

No Shang far worse than slow to act.  Populist administrations persevering with Pandemic Emergency Plans that were never going to cut the mustard but they resisted the alternative of unpopular and costly responses until far too late.

UK Govt Response 

Do nothing for a month (from the 1st 100 global cases escaping China reported as at 1 February) to 29 Feb, then wash hands for two weeks, advise at end of 2 weeks (13 March) symptoms and isolation of those at risk, then 2 working days later on 16 March Govt suddenly shit their pants realising they got it wrong using a "mitigation" populist political strategy, science steps in and start a "suppression" strategy in following week commencing 23 March.

That has gone to shit because national Pandemic Emergency Plan (failed a test in 2016 but never remedied) only ever contemplated a "mitigation" strategy with higher loss of life, not a "suppression" strategy with lower loss of life but with more economic pain employed after 16 March. Aka today shambolic testing program and medical equipment shortages etc.

Note dates of following clips re the above Timeline.

 

USA - Where do you start? 

Much the same as the UK re Timeline but with a total fruitcake running the show. POTUS statements 25/26/27 February then 9 March are standouts.

ET4fFUiUMAALAFB.thumb.jpeg.c2706d0cfd62a8aff770b1bc24e59398.jpeg

Hence the two leaders in the Coronavirus Cup looking to get a podium place, the UK on a per capita basis or handicap not line honours winner (far more relevant for comparisons not shown here) the bookmakers favourite. Peak projected June.

Daily Fatality Rates (US normally 100 deaths per day for the flu)

EUvqE1uXkAASIwM.jpeg

I'm just glad i am here Jack

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16 hours ago, MRS OCTOPUS said:

Ha, Wacko , love the way you take anarchy so seriously.

Sounds like you have run out of socks to argue with.

Until the oracle ( Andy Bolt) cast some more pearls of wisdom before us, I got nutt'n .

I would love to post pics, but with your mate  Little Boy, now stalking big time

It would be a risky move.

Lets wait until he calms down a little.

He"s probably still suffering CHRONIC BUTT HURT from the self inflicted RQYS affair.

Sorry who is stalking who? You see this kind of behavior is why you got punted of the Morton bay cruises page last week, it is why you have gone bankrupt twice (the 2nd time for $80K - what kind of loser goes bankrupt for $80K?) it is why you have been had one warning from WS (and they are holding 2 further complaints) and why every single person in the sport thinks you are a nasty incompetent cunt.

My issues with RQYS were self inflicted? No they were inflicted by the Commodore and his good mate Peter Hollis. He is the one who made the complaint about me. You remember him don't you- he was the star witness in the Beachball/Mary Kathrine protest that was later expelled from the club after pleading guilty to assaulting a women while armed. The one that your mates didn't expel until after it was a national news story and they received a letter from a member of parliament.

And that stupid mustache makes you look like a fat gay Qantas cabin boy. 

Now off you go crying to the Mods again.

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1 hour ago, LB 15 said:

 You see this kind of behavior is why you got punted of the Morton bay cruises page last week, it is why you have gone bankrupt twice (the 2nd time for $80K - what kind of loser goes bankrupt for $80K?) it is why you have been had one warning from WS (and they are holding 2 further complaints) and why every single person in the sport thinks you are a nasty incompetent cunt.

My issues with RQYS were self inflicted? No they were inflicted by the Commodore and his good mate Peter Hollis. He is the one who made the complaint about me. You remember him don't you- he was the star witness in the Beachball/Mary Kathrine protest that was later expelled from the club after pleading guilty to assaulting a women while armed. The one that your mates didn't expel until after it was a national news story and they received a letter from a member of parliament.

And that stupid mustache makes you look like a fat gay Qantas cabin boy. 

Now off you go crying to the Mods again.

Good morning Stalker.

Up early and making me first cab of the rank I see.

CREEPY.

Another beautiful morning here as you would know.

A little chilly maybe?

Paranoia is still rampant I see.

So that we can nip any confusion in the bud.

Am I in my mothers basement in far west NSW?

Am I G? (thats  flattering cause I think of 'Q' when you call me that.)

Or the UBER driver.

Do tell.

 

PS.

Sad that you still blame the complainant for your actions.

More therapist action for you cup-cake.

BWAHAHA

 

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16 hours ago, shanghaisailor said:

China is currently the safest place in the world to be.

Unless you are a member of an ethnic group they would prefer didn't exist.

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Hi Jack, interested (for a change) in what you think of this article. You seem to be happy to follow through with deeper research at times, just hope you can keep an open mind about it.

Seems to be indicating perhaps we are over reacting to the whole thing somewhat.

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

Promise I will read your reply, no matter how long.

Cheers, keep well.

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My eldest daughter works at Coles as a checkout chick. 

They have incredibly stringent processes in place, the checkout staff have to wash their hands between every customer, cannot touch their face at all for any reason, if they cough they're removed off the checkout straight away.

But equally, they are doing a great job in supporting their staff, the managers and security staff are at the coal face and actively engaged and supportive and all under 18yr old casual staff have been set lesser hours and certain periods to mitigate their risk of exposure.   

She served a lady on Thursday who wanted to pay cash, which of course is a legal right, so not good but fair enough.

So she pulls out a bulging purse, licks her fingers and proceeds to peel out a bunch of notes. Eldest daughter politely refuses to take the money (she has the manners of a saint bless her) , explains why then asks said lady if she could use a card.

The lady abuses eldest daughter. Eldest daughter takes abuse and apologises, fighting back tears, red faced but determined to keep her cool. Manager appears , calmly informs the client about how many rules she has just broken and and unceromoniously kicks said lady out of the store for abusing a staff member.

I don't like Coles or Woolies due to their monopolization, but eldest daughters fellow staff and front line managers have really impressed me on how they are managing and caring for their staff and their customers.

   

 

  

  

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http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/images/InProportion2_Chart1.png

2 hours ago, Gissie said:

Hi Jack, interested (for a change) in what you think of this article. You seem to be happy to follow through with deeper research at times, just hope you can keep an open mind about it.

Seems to be indicating perhaps we are over reacting to the whole thing somewhat.

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

Promise I will read your reply, no matter how long.

Cheers, keep well.

http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/

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1 hour ago, Gissie said:

Hi Jack, interested (for a change) in what you think of this article. You seem to be happy to follow through with deeper research at times, just hope you can keep an open mind about it.

Seems to be indicating perhaps we are over reacting to the whole thing somewhat.

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

When I see a statement in such a report like:

"…a study on 3000 people that 50 to 75% of the test-positive people of all ages remain completely symptom-free – significantly more than previously assumed."

Then read the referenced report, which says:

"The vast majority of people infected with Covid-19, between 50 and 75%, are completely asymptomatic but represent a formidable source of contagion"
(my emphasis)

I am left with a strong feeling that the unnamed author or authors are simply cherrypicking data to make a point that is not evident in the original analysis, and neither presenting the full context of the original analysis nor explaining why their view differs. That is, it presents factual data, but does not convey the conclusion arrived at in the original analysis. Further, the author/s are using the qualifications of the authors of the original report as an appeal to authority, attempting to cloak their analysis in the qualifications of the original author. Make your own conclusions about how that behaviour should be seen.

It has been widely known since the (now widely studied) Diamond Princess, that about half of positive SARS-CoV-2 tests are asymptomatic and may never develop Covid-19. The point is that asymptomatic persons may well be a significant factor in the spread to vulnerable persons who then go on to develop Covid-19 and possibly die. What is not known, but may soon be, is how contagious an asymptomatic person is. It seems like it could be "very".

It's also bleeding obvious that persons with existing conditions are more vulnerable to Covid-19, they're also more vulnerable to poor outcomes from the seasonal flu and other transmissible diseases. That's why elderly and vulnerable persons are offered free vaccinations and other preferential treatment. We can't do that with Covid-19, so we have to take other measures, and the only one we have is to physically separate people to stop transmission. That's it.

There really is no need to look at studies to work out whether we've over reacted. Look at the mayhem in Italy, Span, UK and USA. That is not a "typical flu", it is a highly contagious virus that is killing a very much higher number of people than the flu. It has no cure and no vaccine. That Australia (and some other countries) have managed to contain the spread to a manageable level is an indication that we've done exactly what was needed.

I have no doubt that once this is over, there will be thousands of studies to determine whether or not the responses were appropriate and to devise better responses for next time. But for the time being, you can look to the progress of the disease here and in the US and ask yourself: which government overreacted and which didn't?

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22 minutes ago, dorydude said:

Notice that in the last week 2019 equivalent, deaths from "flu/pneumonia" were approximately 1,700 with a fairly linear progression. Deaths "with Covid-19" were 3,443 and it's only been around for a month and the numbers are rising exponentially. Yeah, nothing to worry about.

The fact that they differentiate as "from flu/pneumonia" and "with Covid-19" gives you some idea of the bias of the author.

Deaths from flu are actually dropping as a consequence of social distancing, which can be seen in the graph as 2020 flu/pneumonia deaths have taken a dip below last year. So the "cure worse than the disease" has not shown up in overall statistics. I recall seeing similar data out of the US in the last few days (US flu activity drops sharply; death toll holds at 24K).

No doubt there are swings and roundabouts for specific demographics, domestic violence is a focus but I haven't seen any reports of an increase, thank heavens.

InProportion2_Chart2.png

US comparison of flu vs Coronavirus deaths by age, where in almost every group Covid-19 deaths are very much higher:

5e81f6460c2a6261b1771b05?width=700&forma

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1 hour ago, shaggybaxter said:

So she pulls out a bulging purse, licks her fingers and proceeds to peel out a bunch of notes. Eldest daughter politely refuses to take the money (she has the manners of a saint bless her) , explains why then asks said lady if she could use a card.

 

  

Can well believe it.  Saw a lady come out of Woollies the other day, mask on, disposable gloves, all good so far.  She had a bag of groceries in one hand, and an unwrapped chocolate bar in the other. 

She approached the pedestrian crossing.  Problem - how to press the button?  Easy, she pulled down her mask, popped the bar between her front teeth to hold it, pressed the button, and with the same hand she used on the button retrieved the chockie and proceeded to eat it. She may as well have licked the button.

Not saying she's an idiot, she's just normal.  Having had the odd couple of years doing sterile culture and so on, I know how hard it is to break the habits of a lifetime and to keep the germs out of where they don't belong.

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, RobG said:

Notice that in the last week 2019 equivalent, deaths from "flu/pneumonia" were approximately 1,700 with a fairly linear progression. Deaths "with Covid-19" were 3,443 and it's only been around for a month and the numbers are rising exponentially. Yeah, nothing to worry about.

The fact that they differentiate as "from flu/pneumonia" and "with Covid-19" gives you some idea of the bias of the author.

Deaths from flu are actually dropping as a consequence of social distancing, which can be seen in the graph as 2020 flu/pneumonia deaths have taken a dip below last year. So the "cure worse than the disease" has not shown up in overall statistics. I recall seeing similar data out of the US in the last few days (US flu activity drops sharply; death toll holds at 24K).

No doubt there are swings and roundabouts for specific demographics, domestic violence is a focus but I haven't seen any reports of an increase, thank heavens.

InProportion2_Chart2.png

US comparison of flu vs Coronavirus deaths by age, where in almost every group Covid-19 deaths are very much higher:

5e81f6460c2a6261b1771b05?width=700&forma

Again, it depends how you define a Covid-19 death. At the moment, these are assumed to be Covid-19 deaths.

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3 hours ago, Gissie said:

Unless you are a member of an ethnic group they would prefer didn't exist.

Uhh, generally not a problem so long as you remain apolitical....and it's generally whacko religious groups that are the causing trouble.

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1 minute ago, dorydude said:

Again, it depends how you define a Covid-19 death. At the moment, these are assumed to be Covid-19 deaths.

I guess it depends on how you define a flu death. It also kills vulnerable people at a much higher rate than fit, healthy people. Maybe all those flu deaths were really from underlying causes and they were going to die about when they died anyway.

You can question the analysis all you want, but at some point you have to trust someone. It's a bit like Malcom Roberts complaining that world temperature data had been manipulated and always wanting to see "the raw data". I wish someone would just give him all the temperature records available for global temperatures and say "here you go, tell us when you've finished your analysis and we'll peer review it". He never would have finished the task.

The same for constantly questioning "but were they really Covid-19 deaths?" as if you can change reality by constantly saying the same thing over and over again. I'll leave it to medical specialists to determine what is and isn't a "Covid-19 death". There are enough people studying this that if there was some huge discrepancy or error of analysis there are far too many vested interests for it not have been writ large by now.

Consider the U-turn Trump has had to make, from "it will go away, like a miracle" to "maybe 2.2 million will die. 100 to 200 thousand would be a good result". Do you think he would have done that if there was any other explanation?

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2 minutes ago, RobG said:

I guess it depends on how you define a flu death. It also kills vulnerable people at a much higher rate than fit, healthy people. Maybe all those flu deaths were really from underlying causes and they were going to die about when they died anyway.

You can question the analysis all you want, but at some point you have to trust someone. It's a bit like Malcom Roberts complaining that world temperature data had been manipulated and always wanting to see "the raw data". I wish someone would just give him all the temperature records available for global temperatures and say "here you go, tell us when you've finished your analysis and we'll peer review it". He never would have finished the task.

The same for constantly questioning "but were they really Covid-19 deaths?" as if you can change reality by constantly saying the same thing over and over again. I'll leave it to medical specialists to determine what is and isn't a "Covid-19 death". There are enough people studying this that if there was some huge discrepancy or error of analysis there are far too many vested interests for it not have been writ large by now.

Consider the U-turn Trump has had to make, from "it will go away, like a miracle" to "maybe 2.2 million will die. 100 to 200 thousand would be a good result". Do you think he would have done that if there was any other explanation?

How deaths are classified is very important:

 

https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/deutschland/id_87636856/coronavirus-hamburg-will-nur-echte-covid-19-tote-zaehlen.html

 

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12 minutes ago, dorydude said:

Uhh, generally not a problem so long as you remain apolitical....and it's generally whacko religious groups that are the causing trouble.

Didn't realise the Uyghers were political or religious whackos. Still the internment, sorry, educational facilities sort them out.

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17 minutes ago, dorydude said:

Uhh, generally not a problem so long as you remain apolitical....and it's generally whacko religious groups that are the causing trouble.

You're either badly miss–informed or wilfully ignorant. Oppressed minorities like Uyghurs (an ethnic group living mostly in north western China) and Falun Gong practitioners (a moral philosophy) aren't "whacko religious groups".

Please advise the "whacko religious groups" in China you think should be oppressed, along with examples of why.

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7 minutes ago, RobG said:

I guess it depends on how you define a flu death.

At present it appears to be classed as anyone that has the virus. Heart attack, covid death. Cancer, covid death. Car crash, covid death.

If you had bothered to read the link I posted earlier that you derided earlier you may have picked up the possible anomoly.

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3 minutes ago, Gissie said:

Didn't realise the Uyghers were political or religious whackos. Still the internment, sorry, educational facilities sort them out.

Modern Uyghurs are primarily Muslim. They want their own autonomous state. 

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1 minute ago, dorydude said:

Modern Uyghurs are primarily Muslim. They want their own autonomous state. 

So Muslims are religious whackos? Their real crime is to have a homeland that is at the intersection of where China extends its 'belt and road' initiative out into Europe. There can be nothing but utter subjugation for such a strategic area. Within a decade the Uyghers ethnic group will cease to exist.

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19 minutes ago, RobG said:

You're either badly miss–informed or wilfully ignorant. Oppressed minorities like Uyghurs (an ethnic group living mostly in north western China) and Falun Gong practitioners (a moral philosophy) aren't "whacko religious groups".

Please advise the "whacko religious groups" in China you think should be oppressed, along with examples of why.

It's China's policy, not mine.

How much time have you spent in China?

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12 minutes ago, Gissie said:

So Muslims are religious whackos? Their real crime is to have a homeland that is at the intersection of where China extends its 'belt and road' initiative out into Europe. There can be nothing but utter subjugation for such a strategic area. Within a decade the Uyghers ethnic group will cease to exist.

China has a kind of "One Nation" policy. They know that religious and ethnic differences can lead to big problems if not suppressed.

It's their country and their policy.

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10 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

Are we going to lose Boris?

 

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6 minutes ago, Gissie said:

At present it appears to be classed as anyone that has the virus. Heart attack, covid death. Cancer, covid death. Car crash, covid death.

If you had bothered to read the link I posted earlier that you derided earlier you may have picked up the possible anomoly.

You mean this link to an 11,000 word article from an unnamed author? The one I've already said shows obvious signs of cherry picking and misrepresentation of the conclusions of the references it (selectively) quotes? A couple more:

The occupancy rate of the North Italian ICUs in the winter months is typically already 85 to 90%. Some or many of these existing patients could also be test-positive by now. However, the number of additional unexpected pneumonia cases is not yet known.

The inference being that there are already lots of people in ICU, so why the panic? Because, as stated in the associated link and as said from the start, since Covid-19 has no cure and no vaccine, it will cause an influx of patients in ICU and overload the system, causing many more deaths from all causes due to the strain on the system. The linked article was about the need to greatly increase ICU capacity to cope with Covid-19, again the purpose and conclusion of the linked report was not included in the anonymous swprs.org article.

A hospital doctor in the Spanish city of Malaga writes on Twitter that people are currently more likely to die from panic and systemic collapse than from the virus. The hospital is being overrun by people with colds, flu and possibly Covid-19 and doctors have lost control.

A post on Twitter is a reliable source of information on which to base your response to a global pandemic? Again, it has been said from the start that health services would be overrun. If there were plenty of tests kits available and places to do testing, people wouldn't be needlessly flooding hospitals. The problem isn't that people want to get tested, it's that health systems weren't ready to deal with it.

Australia has rationed the use of tests and, because we had a lower number of infections before closing borders and restricting movement, was able to test sufficiently. Unfortunately other countries had too many infections and too few kits to test effectively, even with restrictions. Some were only testing people admitted to hospital with severe symptoms. Everyone wants more testing, weird that it should be seen as a symptom of over reaction.

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8 minutes ago, dorydude said:

It's China's policy, not mine.

How much time have you spent in China?

So you don't have any examples, thanks for clearing that up.

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7 minutes ago, RobG said:

So you don't have any examples, thanks for clearing that up.

China's policy. Ask them.

See my post #370.

Thanks for confirming you've never been there. 

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10 minutes ago, RobG said:

You mean this link to an 11,000 word article from an unnamed author? The one I've already said shows obvious signs of cherry picking and misrepresentation of the conclusions of the references it (selectively) quotes? A couple more:

The occupancy rate of the North Italian ICUs in the winter months is typically already 85 to 90%. Some or many of these existing patients could also be test-positive by now. However, the number of additional unexpected pneumonia cases is not yet known.

The inference being that there are already lots of people in ICU, so why the panic? Because, as stated in the associated link and as said from the start, since Covid-19 has no cure and no vaccine, it will cause an influx of patients in ICU and overload the system, causing many more deaths from all causes due to the strain on the system. The linked article was about the need to greatly increase ICU capacity to cope with Covid-19, again the purpose and conclusion of the linked report was not included in the anonymous swprs.org article.

A hospital doctor in the Spanish city of Malaga writes on Twitter that people are currently more likely to die from panic and systemic collapse than from the virus. The hospital is being overrun by people with colds, flu and possibly Covid-19 and doctors have lost control.

A post on Twitter is a reliable source of information on which to base your response to a global pandemic? Again, it has been said from the start that health services would be overrun. If there were plenty of tests kits available and places to do testing, people wouldn't be needlessly flooding hospitals. The problem isn't that people want to get tested, it's that health systems weren't ready to deal with it.

Australia has rationed the use of tests and, because we had a lower number of infections before closing borders and restricting movement, was able to test sufficiently. Unfortunately other countries had too many infections and too few kits to test effectively, even with restrictions. Some were only testing people admitted to hospital with severe symptoms. Everyone wants more testing, weird that it should be seen as a symptom of over reaction.

Seems to be cherry picking by both sides at present. Including every death where a person has the virus as being attributable to the virus would seem wrong to me. There is never a correlation made between higher numbers of those with the virus and higher numbers of testing being performed.

The questions in the open letter to Merkel seem fair to me, but will they ever be answered, by any country?

The future is unlikely to show much apart from what we are allowed to see. If the decisions being taken proved to be the best, all good. If it showed over reaction it is unlikely we will find out. To many reputations on the line and economies broken.

Much like China, we will be only told the approved scenario. Not a tin hat person, just doubt our media or those running the system really has the plebs very high in their priority list.

Stay safe.

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1 hour ago, dorydude said:

That is one of my big problems with the reporting. High numbers of people dying 'with' covid-19. No details on people dying where covid-19 is the primary cause.

Seems very sloppy statistics, but it does aid the fear mongering and allow the imposition of draconian measures. The problem with draconian measures is they are much harder to remove once in place.

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49 minutes ago, dorydude said:

China's policy. Ask them.

See my post #370.

Thanks for confirming you've never been there. 

You have demonstrate an inability (perhaps unwillingness) to sustain a coherent argument.  Whether it's China's policy or not is not the question, it's your assertion that being a member of an ethnic minority is "… generally not a problem so long as you remain apolitical....and it's generally whacko religious groups that are the causing trouble." that infers that you believe there are ethnic minorities and "whacko religious groups" that do deserve to be oppressed.

When asked to show examples (noting that neither ethnic or religious identity infers a political view point) you can't come up with any.

Whether I have visited China or not is irrelevant.

PS. There is no post #370 in this thread (yet).

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46 minutes ago, Gissie said:

That is one of my big problems with the reporting. High numbers of people dying 'with' covid-19. No details on people dying where covid-19 is the primary cause.

That's one of Trump's strategies: ignore counter arguments, just endlessly repeat the same assertion without ever addressing the substance of the counter argument which I'll repeat: the problem is the increase in cases requiring hospitalisation and critical care that will increase the overall death toll (from all causes) unnecessarily. Even one of your references says exactly that: the region's ICU beds were typically 85-95% full this time of year and the extra case load from Covid-19 is causing tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths. People can't get critical care and are dying needlessly from all causes.

Quote

Seems very sloppy statistics,

These "sloppy statistics" were used to support the argument that the world is over reacting. So what is it, supporting evidence or not?

Quote

but it does aid the fear mongering and allow the imposition of draconian measures. The problem with draconian measures is they are much harder to remove once in place.

If the alternative to "fear mongering" is an Italy or New York playing out in Sydney or Melbourne, then I'll take temporary "draconian measures" any day.

Given that the current measures are costing the Australian Government tens of billions of dollars per month (and the economy even more), I'd say they'll be removed as soon as practically possible. There will also be analysis of preparedness, response and outcomes that will put analysis of the GFC to shame. Wonderful thing democracy, even one as imperfect as ours. :-)

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with the ruby princess unloading a few hundred sick crew today we can expect a pretty major blip in our case numbers.

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1 hour ago, RobG said:

That's one of Trump's strategies: ignore counter arguments, just endlessly repeat the same assertion without ever addressing the substance of the counter argument which I'll repeat: the problem is the increase in cases requiring hospitalisation and critical care that will increase the overall death toll (from all causes) unnecessarily. Even one of your references says exactly that: the region's ICU beds were typically 85-95% full this time of year and the extra case load from Covid-19 is causing tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths. People can't get critical care and are dying needlessly from all causes.

These "sloppy statistics" were used to support the argument that the world is over reacting. So what is it, supporting evidence or not?

If the alternative to "fear mongering" is an Italy or New York playing out in Sydney or Melbourne, then I'll take temporary "draconian measures" any day.

Given that the current measures are costing the Australian Government tens of billions of dollars per month (and the economy even more), I'd say they'll be removed as soon as practically possible. There will also be analysis of preparedness, response and outcomes that will put analysis of the GFC to shame. Wonderful thing democracy, even one as imperfect as ours. :-)

Agree that one of the problems is lack of ICU beds. NZ has some of the lowest availability in the Western world. So is the real reason purely a lack of health services rather than it being such a monster virus.

As for sloppy statistics, I was meaning that simply classing any death where corvid is present as due to the death gives a meaningless number. Does a person with a heart condition, suffering a heart attack, belong in the covid list just because they have it. Considering up to 50% have no symptoms, if tested they will still be classed as a corvid death. Which gives bullshit numbers but does allow the justification of the extreme measures being used.

As for comparing Sydney and Melbourne to NYC and Italy, that is just silly. Age, living conditions, transport systems and so on will be found to have a big bearing on how things work out. Northern Italy has one of the oldest populations, with many living with young folk. Plus very bad pollution for todays standards. NYC, crowded, high density etc. Your two cities, not so much. Like NZ, you have the advantages of single family homes and not so much in crowded public transport. Automatic social distancing.

As for the analysis, I hope you are right but somehow I doubt it. In the Western countries Sweden is the only outlier and there is huge pressure from other countries for them to join the club. Safely in numbers. The last thing wanted is for them to show the extreme wasn't needed. Plus do you really think a report showing how all the leaders fucked up and ruined their economies by panicking is going to see the light of day.

If you do, LB might still have that bridge for sale.

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23 minutes ago, Gissie said:

Considering up to 50% have no symptoms, if tested they will still be classed as a corvid death. Which gives bullshit numbers but does allow the justification of the extreme measures being used.

You know that such deaths are reported as Covid-19 deaths? You're familiar with the protocol for classifying a death as Covid-19 and have a peer reviewed analysis to say the numbers currently being reported are hugely wrong? Determining a cause of death is not simple, I'll leave it to experts to work out the detail.

Of course you could be just making an ambit claim based on a suspicion that suits your desired scenario? Of course there are people questioning the statistics, that's perfectly reasonable, but no one has yet shown a significantly large anomaly that says they're wrong enough to invalidate the reasons for the actions being taken. If you want the "do nothing" scenario, go to New York, which is more "do stuff too late", but close enough for this discussion. Unless you can show that there is some massive, systematic error in the classification of cause of death and hence that the response is wrong, you're tilting at windmills.

And that's the fundamental problem with the "we're over reacting" argument: there is an abundance of empirical evidence in multiple places to show what happens when you under react, and the much better outcomes in places that have, in your words, over reacted.

Me, I'll just look at what's happening in places that haven't taken strong measures early and think "I'm glad that's not happening here" and think that while we were on a similar trajectory to start with, those measures seem to be working and the disease may be manageable soon so maybe it's worthwhile sticking with it.

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1 hour ago, RobG said:

You have demonstrate an inability (perhaps unwillingness) to sustain a coherent argument.  Whether it's China's policy or not is not the question, it's your assertion that being a member of an ethnic minority is "… generally not a problem so long as you remain apolitical....and it's generally whacko religious groups that are the causing trouble." that infers that you believe there are ethnic minorities and "whacko religious groups" that do deserve to be oppressed.

When asked to show examples (noting that neither ethnic or religious identity infers a political view point) you can't come up with any.

Whether I have visited China or not is irrelevant.

PS. There is no post #370 in this thread (yet).

Whether you have visited China is relevant. Otherwise you will just be swayed by the propaganda our media feeds us and think that religions are banned.

I'll make it simple:

Chinese People:  Can we worship our imaginary sky fairies?

Chinese Government: Sure, no problem.

Chinese People: Can we build churches and temples so we can congregate to worship our imaginary sky fairies?

Chinese Government: Sure, no problem

Chinese People: Can we practice our ethnic customs and speak our native language?

Chinese Government: Sure, but just remember that Mandarin is the official language here.

Chinese People: Can we form an independent state within China based on our religion and/or ethnicity?

Chinese Government: No, fuck off.

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6 minutes ago, dorydude said:

Chinese People: Can we form an independent state within China based on our religion and/or ethnicity?

Chinese Government: No, fuck off.

So not "whacko religious groups" but political activists that you think it's perfectly reasonable to intern in their millions. I think I know your opinion on Native Title and land rights for aboriginal and Torres Straight Islanders (psst… there are aboriginal community and indigenous justice courts in Australia, as well as communities with restricted access to only those that identify and are accepted as traditional owners of the land, but don't tell anyone…). 

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